Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Jan 2021
Research article |
| 11 Jan 2021
| 11 Jan 2021
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, 80305, USA
Esther C. Brady
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, 80305, USA
Anni Zhao
Environmental Change Research Centre, Department of Geography,
University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
Chris M. Brierley
Environmental Change Research Centre, Department of Geography,
University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
Yarrow Axford
Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA
Emilie Capron
Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, 2200, Denmark
Aline Govin
LSCE-IPSL, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
(CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), University Paris-Saclay, Gif sur Yvette, 91190, France
Jeremy S. Hoffman
Science Museum of Virginia, Richmond, Virginia 23220, USA
Center for Environmental Studies, Virginia Commonwealth University,
Richmond, Virginia 23220, USA
Elizabeth Isaacs
Environmental Change Research Centre, Department of Geography,
University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
Masa Kageyama
LSCE-IPSL, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
(CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), University Paris-Saclay, Gif sur Yvette, 91190, France
Paolo Scussolini
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam,
Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Polychronis C. Tzedakis
Environmental Change Research Centre, Department of Geography,
University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
Charles J. R. Williams
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Eric Wolff
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EQ, UK
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5, Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba 277-8564, Japan
Pascale Braconnot
LSCE-IPSL, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
(CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), University Paris-Saclay, Gif sur Yvette, 91190, France
Silvana Ramos Buarque
CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques),
Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, 31057 Toulouse, France
Jian Cao
Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information
Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
Anne de Vernal
Geotop & Département des sciences de la Terre et de l'atmosphère, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Québec, H3C 3P8 Canada
Maria Vittoria Guarino
British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK
Chuncheng Guo
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate
Research, 5007 Bergen, Norway
Allegra N. LeGrande
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center for Climate
Systems Research, Columbia University, New York City, USA
Gerrit Lohmann
Alfred Wegener Institute – Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bussestr. 24, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Katrin J. Meissner
Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Laurie Menviel
Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Polina A. Morozova
Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Staromonetny L. 29, Moscow, 119017, Russia
Kerim H. Nisancioglu
Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre
for Climate Research, Allégaten 41, 5007 Bergen, Norway
Centre for Earth Evolution and Dynamics, University of Oslo, Oslo,
Norway
Ryouta O'ishi
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5, Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba 277-8564, Japan
David Salas y Mélia
CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques),
Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, 31057 Toulouse, France
Xiaoxu Shi
Alfred Wegener Institute – Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bussestr. 24, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Marie Sicard
LSCE-IPSL, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
(CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), University Paris-Saclay, Gif sur Yvette, 91190, France
Louise Sime
British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK
Christian Stepanek
Alfred Wegener Institute – Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bussestr. 24, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Robert Tomas
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, 80305, USA
Evgeny Volodin
Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of
Sciences, Moscow, 119333, Russia
Nicholas K. H. Yeung
Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Qiong Zhang
Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate
Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden
Zhongshi Zhang
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate
Research, 5007 Bergen, Norway
Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental studies, China University of Geoscience, Wuhan, 430074, China
Weipeng Zheng
LASG (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric
Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics), Institute of Atmospheric Physics,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
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Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
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Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
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Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Harry J. Dowsett, Aisling M. Dolan, Kevin M. Foley, Stephen J. Hunter, Daniel J. Hill, Wing-Le Chan, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Youichi Kamae, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Esther C. Brady, Anna S. von der Heydt, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and Daniel J. Lunt
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Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
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Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Erin L. McClymont, Heather L. Ford, Sze Ling Ho, Julia C. Tindall, Alan M. Haywood, Montserrat Alonso-Garcia, Ian Bailey, Melissa A. Berke, Kate Littler, Molly O. Patterson, Benjamin Petrick, Francien Peterse, A. Christina Ravelo, Bjørg Risebrobakken, Stijn De Schepper, George E. A. Swann, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Jessica E. Tierney, Carolien van der Weijst, Sarah White, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Anna S. von der Heydt, Stephen Hunter, Xiangyi Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 16, 1599–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, 2020
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We examine the sea-surface temperature response to an interval of climate ~ 3.2 million years ago, when CO2 concentrations were similar to today and the near future. Our geological data and climate models show that global mean sea-surface temperatures were 2.3 to 3.2 ºC warmer than pre-industrial climate, that the mid-latitudes and high latitudes warmed more than the tropics, and that the warming was particularly enhanced in the North Atlantic Ocean.
Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Benjamin D. Stocker, Sebastian Lienert, Jurek Müller, Hubertus Fischer, Jochen Schmitt, I. Colin Prentice, Bette Otto-Bliesner, and Zhengyu Liu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3511–3543, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, 2020
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Results of the first globally resolved simulations of terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (N) cycling and N2O emissions over the past 21 000 years are compared with reconstructed N2O emissions. Modelled and reconstructed emissions increased strongly during past abrupt warming events. This evidence appears consistent with a dynamic response of biological N fixation to increasing N demand by ecosystems, thereby reducing N limitation of plant productivity and supporting a land sink for atmospheric CO2.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell N. Drysdale, Philip L. Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3649–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, 2019
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As part of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). This design includes time-varying changes in orbital forcing, greenhouse gas concentrations, continental ice sheets as well as freshwater input from the disintegration of continental ice sheets. Key paleo-records for model-data comparison are also included.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell Drysdale, Philip Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
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The penultimate deglaciation (~ 138–128 ka), which represents the transition into the Last Interglacial period, provides a framework to investigate the climate and environmental response to large changes in boundary conditions. Here, as part of the PAGES-PMIP working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation as well as a selection of paleo records for upcoming model-data comparisons.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
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The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
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Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
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The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Eleni Anagnostou, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Rodrigo Caballero, Rob DeConto, Henk A. Dijkstra, Yannick Donnadieu, David Evans, Ran Feng, Gavin L. Foster, Ed Gasson, Anna S. von der Heydt, Chris J. Hollis, Gordon N. Inglis, Stephen M. Jones, Jeff Kiehl, Sandy Kirtland Turner, Robert L. Korty, Reinhardt Kozdon, Srinath Krishnan, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Petra Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Allegra N. LeGrande, Kate Littler, Paul Markwick, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Paul Pearson, Christopher J. Poulsen, Ulrich Salzmann, Christine Shields, Kathryn Snell, Michael Stärz, James Super, Clay Tabor, Jessica E. Tierney, Gregory J. L. Tourte, Aradhna Tripati, Garland R. Upchurch, Bridget S. Wade, Scott L. Wing, Arne M. E. Winguth, Nicky M. Wright, James C. Zachos, and Richard E. Zeebe
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 889–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, 2017
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In this paper we describe the experimental design for a set of simulations which will be carried out by a range of climate models, all investigating the climate of the Eocene, about 50 million years ago. The intercomparison of model results is called 'DeepMIP', and we anticipate that we will contribute to the next IPCC report through an analysis of these simulations and the geological data to which we will compare them.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Fergus W. Howell, Alan M. Haywood, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Youichi Kamae, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nan A. Rosenbloom, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 12, 749–767, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-749-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-749-2016, 2016
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Simulations of pre-industrial and mid-Pliocene Arctic sea ice by eight GCMs are analysed. Ensemble variability in sea ice extent is greater in the mid-Pliocene summer, when half of the models simulate sea-ice-free conditions. Weaker correlations are seen between sea ice extent and temperatures in the pre-industrial era compared to the mid-Pliocene. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances.
Alan M. Haywood, Harry J. Dowsett, Aisling M. Dolan, David Rowley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Mark A. Chandler, Stephen J. Hunter, Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Pound, and Ulrich Salzmann
Clim. Past, 12, 663–675, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-663-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-663-2016, 2016
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Our paper presents the experimental design for the second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). We outline the way in which climate models should be set up in order to study the Pliocene – a period of global warmth in Earth's history which is relevant for our understanding of future climate change. By conducting a model intercomparison we hope to understand the uncertainty associated with model predictions of a warmer climate.
A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, M. Kageyama, P. Braconnot, S. P. Harrison, K. Lambeck, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, W. R. Peltier, L. Tarasov, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, and K. Takahashi
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3621–3637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, 2015
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We describe the creation of boundary conditions related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and altitude of ice-free land, at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), for use in LGM experiments conducted as part of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The difference in the ice sheet boundary conditions as well as the climate response to them are discussed.
A. Jahn, K. Lindsay, X. Giraud, N. Gruber, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, Z. Liu, and E. C. Brady
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2419–2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2419-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2419-2015, 2015
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Carbon isotopes have been added to the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). This paper describes the details of how the abiotic 14C tracer and the biotic 13C and 14C tracers were added to the existing ocean model of the CESM. In addition, it shows the first results of the new model features compared to observational data for the 1990s.
S. Albani, N. M. Mahowald, G. Winckler, R. F. Anderson, L. I. Bradtmiller, B. Delmonte, R. François, M. Goman, N. G. Heavens, P. P. Hesse, S. A. Hovan, S. G. Kang, K. E. Kohfeld, H. Lu, V. Maggi, J. A. Mason, P. A. Mayewski, D. McGee, X. Miao, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. T. Perry, A. Pourmand, H. M. Roberts, N. Rosenbloom, T. Stevens, and J. Sun
Clim. Past, 11, 869–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-869-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-869-2015, 2015
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We propose an innovative framework to organize paleodust records, formalized in a publicly accessible database, and discuss the emerging properties of the global dust cycle during the Holocene by integrating our analysis with simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model. We show how the size distribution of dust is intrinsically related to the dust mass accumulation rates and that only considering a consistent size range allows for a consistent analysis of the global dust cycle.
A. M. Dolan, S. J. Hunter, D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, S. J. Koenig, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 11, 403–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, 2015
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Climate and ice sheet models are often used to predict the nature of ice sheets in Earth history. It is important to understand whether such predictions are consistent among different models, especially in warm periods of relevance to the future. We use input from 15 different climate models to run one ice sheet model and compare the predictions over Greenland. We find that there are large differences between the predicted ice sheets for the warm Pliocene (c. 3 million years ago).
F. Colleoni, S. Masina, A. Cherchi, A. Navarra, C. Ritz, V. Peyaud, and B. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 10, 269–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-269-2014, 2014
D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Lunt, S. J. Hunter, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, C. Stepanek, L. Sohl, N. A. Rosenbloom, W.-L. Chan, Y. Kamae, Z. Zhang, A. Abe-Ouchi, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, G. Lohmann, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 10, 79–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, 2014
R. Zhang, Q. Yan, Z. S. Zhang, D. Jiang, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, C. Contoux, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 2085–2099, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, 2013
K. Saito, T. Sueyoshi, S. Marchenko, V. Romanovsky, B. Otto-Bliesner, J. Walsh, N. Bigelow, A. Hendricks, and K. Yoshikawa
Clim. Past, 9, 1697–1714, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013, 2013
Z.-S. Zhang, K. H. Nisancioglu, M. A. Chandler, A. M. Haywood, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, C. Stepanek, A. Abe-Ouchi, W.-L. Chan, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, A. M. Dolan, D. J. Hill, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. E. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 1495–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, 2013
N. A. Rosenbloom, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, E. C. Brady, and P. J. Lawrence
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 549–561, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-549-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-549-2013, 2013
C. Morrill, A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 9, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, 2013
M. Kageyama, U. Merkel, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Prange, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Lohmann, R. Ohgaito, D. M. Roche, J. Singarayer, D. Swingedouw, and X Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, 2013
A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, H. J. Dowsett, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. J. Pickering, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, U. Salzmann, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 191–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, 2013
Bartholomé Duboc, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Babette Hoogakker, Tilo Ziehn, and Matthew Chamberlain
Clim. Past, 21, 1093–1122, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1093-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1093-2025, 2025
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We use an earth system model to simulate ocean oxygen during two past warm periods, the Last Interglacial (∼ 129–115 ka) and Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 9e (∼ 336–321 ka). The global ocean is overall less oxygenated compared to the preindustrial simulation. Large regions in the Mediterranean Sea are oxygen deprived in the Last Interglacial simulation, and to a lesser extent in the MIS 9e simulation, due to an intensification and expansion of the African monsoon and enhanced river runoff.
Nicole van Maanen, Joël J.-F. G. De Plaen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Maria Luisa Colmenares, Philip J. Ward, Paolo Scussolini, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2075–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, 2025
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Understanding coastal flood protection is vital for assessing risks from natural disasters and climate change. However, current global data on coastal flood protection are limited and based on simplified assumptions, leading to potential uncertainties in risk estimates. As a step in this direction, we propose a comprehensive dataset, COASTtal flood PROtection Standards within EUrope (COASTPROS-EU), which compiles coastal flood protection standards in Europe.
Gabriel M. Pontes, Pedro L. da Silva Dias, and Laurie Menviel
Clim. Past, 21, 1079–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1079-2025, 2025
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El Niño events are the main drivers of year-to-year climate variability. Understanding how El Niño activity is affected by different climate states is of great relevance to agriculture, water, ecosystem, and climate risk management. Through analysis of past and future climate simulations, we show that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sensitivity to mean state changes is nonlinear and, to some extent, shaped by atmospheric CO2 levels.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Felix Pollak, Frédéric Parrenin, Emilie Capron, Zanna Chase, Lenneke Jong, and Etienne Legrain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2233, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
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The Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) marked a shift towards extended glacial periods and amplitudes, while its underlying mechanisms are still disputed. Here, we present a new conceptual model capable of simulating the global ice volume over the last 2.6 Ma and reconstructing the MPT. We find that a long-lasting, gradual trend in the climate system is most favourable in reconstructing the MPT and that for the last 900 ka, precession was more important for glacial terminations than obliquity.
Lukas Jonkers, Tonke Strack, Montserrat Alonso-Garcia, Simon D'haenens, Robert Huber, Michal Kucera, Iván Hernández-Almeida, Chloe L. C. Jones, Brett Metcalfe, Rajeev Saraswat, Lóránd Silye, Sanjay K. Verma, Muhamad Naim Abd Malek, Gerald Auer, Cátia F. Barbosa, Maria A. Barcena, Karl-Heinz Baumann, Flavia Boscolo-Galazzo, Joeven Austine S. Calvelo, Lucilla Capotondi, Martina Caratelli, Jorge Cardich, Humberto Carvajal-Chitty, Markéta Chroustová, Helen K. Coxall, Renata M. de Mello, Anne de Vernal, Paula Diz, Kirsty M. Edgar, Helena L. Filipsson, Ángela Fraguas, Heather L. Furlong, Giacomo Galli, Natalia L. García Chapori, Robyn Granger, Jeroen Groeneveld, Adil Imam, Rebecca Jackson, David Lazarus, Julie Meilland, Marína Molčan Matejová, Raphael Morard, Caterina Morigi, Sven N. Nielsen, Diana Ochoa, Maria Rose Petrizzo, Andrés S. Rigual-Hernández, Marina C. Rillo, Matthew L. Staitis, Gamze Tanık, Raúl Tapia, Nishant Vats, Bridget S. Wade, and Anna E. Weinmann
J. Micropalaeontol., 44, 145–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/jm-44-145-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/jm-44-145-2025, 2025
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Our study provides guidelines improving the reuse of marine microfossil assemblage data, which are valuable for understanding past ecosystems and environmental change. Based on a survey of 113 researchers, we identified key data attributes required for effective reuse. Analysis of a selection of datasets available online reveals a gap between the attributes scientists consider essential and the data currently available, highlighting the need for clearer data documentation and sharing practices.
Fernanda DI Alzira Oliveira Matos, Dmitry Sidorenko, Xiaoxu Shi, Lars Ackermann, Janini Pereira, Gerrit Lohmann, and Christian Stepanek
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2326, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is responsible for about 25 % of the poleward ocean heat transport. Currently, the AMOC strength is mostly calculated in depth space (z-AMOC). However, we argue that, in warmer climates, the AMOC should be calculated in density space (ρ-AMOC). We performed simulations with CO2 forcing of 280 ppmv (PI) and 1120 ppmv of (4xCO2) and find that ρ-AMOC provides more physical and meaningful information about the AMOC in warmer climates.
Iuri Gorenstein, Ilana Wainer, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Luciana F. Prado, Pedro L. S. Dias, Allegra N. LeGrande, Clay R. Tabor, and William R. Peltier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-921, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-921, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Using a new approach based on information theory we study climate variability in the tropical and South Atlantic by examining broad patterns in ocean and rainfall data at decadal scales. Four climate models under mid‐Holocene and pre‐industrial conditions show that shifts in vegetation and dust yield varied weather responses. Our findings indicate that incorporating large-scale patterns provides a framework for understanding long-term climate behavior, offering insights for improved predictions.
Ségolène Crossouard, Soulivanh Thao, Thomas Dubos, Masa Kageyama, Mathieu Vrac, and Yann Meurdesoif
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1418, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Current atmospheric models are limited by the computational time required for physical processes, known as physical parameterizations. To address this, we developed neural network-based emulators to replace these parameterizations in the IPSL climate model, using a simplified aquaplanet setup. We found that incorporating some physical knowledge, such as latent variables, into the learning process can improve predictions.
Felix S. L. Ng, Rachael H. Rhodes, Tyler J. Fudge, and Eric W. Wolff
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1566, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Impurity diffusion in ice causes loss of climate history. We give a new method of finding the diffusion rate from ice-core records. Its use on sulphate data from the EPICA Dome C core reveals rapid diffusion in snow that suggests H2SO4 vapour diffusion in air pores, and much slower diffusion in the ice below that indicates signal relocation between crystal interfaces. We estimate a maximum sulphate diffusion length of 2 cm for ice 1–2 Myr old sought by the ice-coring projects on Little Dome C.
Himadri Saini, David K. Hutchinson, Josephine R. Brown, Russell N. Drysdale, Yanxuan Du, and Laurie Menviel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1990, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1990, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
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This study examines how large ice sheets during the last Ice Age influenced global weather patterns. We found that the presence of these ice sheets affected rainfall patterns in regions like Eurasia and Australia. By altering wind and weather systems, they shifted the position of the tropical rainbelt and impacted the circulation of air in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Our research helps us understand past climate changes and their potential effects on future climate patterns.
Martin Juckes, Karl E. Taylor, Fabrizio Antonio, David Brayshaw, Carlo Buontempo, Jian Cao, Paul J. Durack, Michio Kawamiya, Hyungjun Kim, Tomas Lovato, Chloe Mackallah, Matthew Mizielinski, Alessandra Nuzzo, Martina Stockhause, Daniele Visioni, Jeremy Walton, Briony Turner, Eleanor O'Rourke, and Beth Dingley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2639–2663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025, 2025
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The Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling (ESM-BCVs) are defined as a list of 135 variables which have high utility for the evaluation and exploitation of climate simulations. The list reflects the most frequently used variables from Earth system models based on an assessment of data publication and download records from the largest archive of global climate projects.
Nathan Stevenard, Émilie Capron, Étienne Legrain, and Claire Coutelle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1928, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
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To better understand climate change in past warm periods, we studied global ocean temperature during an interglacial period about 300,000 years ago. Combining 98 records on common timeline, we found regional differences in the timing and amplitude of changes, which smoothed the global signal. We also show that the deglacial warming rate was about three times lower than today's global warming rate.
Daniel F. J. Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2479–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, 2025
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This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth's orbit. We demonstrate that ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth's climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth's most recent cold extreme – the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Niklas Kappelt, Eric Wolff, Marcus Christl, Christof Vockenhuber, Philip Gautschi, and Raimund Muscheler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1780, 2025
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By measuring the radioactive decay of atmospherically produced 36Cl and 10Be in an ice core drilled in West Antarctica, we were able to determine the age of the deepest sample close to bedrock to be about 550 thousand years old. This means that the ice in this location, known as Skytrain Ice Rise, has survived several warm periods in the past, which occur about every 100 thousand years.
David J. Harning, Christopher R. Florian, Áslaug Geirsdóttir, Thor Thordarson, Gifford H. Miller, Yarrow Axford, and Sædís Ólafsdóttir
Clim. Past, 21, 795–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-795-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-795-2025, 2025
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Questions remain about the past climate in Iceland, including the relative impacts of natural and human factors on vegetation change and soil erosion. We present a sub-centennial-scale record of landscape and algal productivity from a lake in north Iceland. Along with a high-resolution tephra age constraint that covers the last ∼ 12 000 years, our record provides an environmental template for the region and novel insight into the sensitivity of the Icelandic ecosystem to natural and human impacts.
Takashi Obase, Takanori Kodama, Takao Kawasaki, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Daisuke Takasuka, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Masakazu Fujii
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1484, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1484, 2025
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In the past, Earth experienced its surface became completely covered with ice. Using an atmosphere-ocean climate model, we examined the evolution in the ocean circulation from modern to the snowball Earth. We found that the deep ocean ocean circulation experienced drastic weakening before the snowball onset by salinity changes, and after that the ocean circulation resumed. The ocean circulation changes have implications for understanding climate system feedback on the past snowball events.
Babette A.A. Hoogakker, Catherine Davis, Yi Wang, Stephanie Kusch, Katrina Nilsson-Kerr, Dalton S. Hardisty, Allison Jacobel, Dharma Reyes Macaya, Nicolaas Glock, Sha Ni, Julio Sepúlveda, Abby Ren, Alexandra Auderset, Anya V. Hess, Katrin J. Meissner, Jorge Cardich, Robert Anderson, Christine Barras, Chandranath Basak, Harold J. Bradbury, Inda Brinkmann, Alexis Castillo, Madelyn Cook, Kassandra Costa, Constance Choquel, Paula Diz, Jonas Donnenfield, Felix J. Elling, Zeynep Erdem, Helena L. Filipsson, Sebastián Garrido, Julia Gottschalk, Anjaly Govindankutty Menon, Jeroen Groeneveld, Christian Hallmann, Ingrid Hendy, Rick Hennekam, Wanyi Lu, Jean Lynch-Stieglitz, Lélia Matos, Alfredo Martínez-García, Giulia Molina, Práxedes Muñoz, Simone Moretti, Jennifer Morford, Sophie Nuber, Svetlana Radionovskaya, Morgan Reed Raven, Christopher J. Somes, Anja S. Studer, Kazuyo Tachikawa, Raúl Tapia, Martin Tetard, Tyler Vollmer, Xingchen Wang, Shuzhuang Wu, Yan Zhang, Xin-Yuan Zheng, and Yuxin Zhou
Biogeosciences, 22, 863–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-863-2025, 2025
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Paleo-oxygen proxies can extend current records, constrain pre-anthropogenic baselines, provide datasets necessary to test climate models under different boundary conditions, and ultimately understand how ocean oxygenation responds on longer timescales. Here we summarize current proxies used for the reconstruction of Cenozoic seawater oxygen levels. This includes an overview of the proxy's history, how it works, resources required, limitations, and future recommendations.
Alison J. McLaren, Louise C. Sime, Simon Wilson, Jeff Ridley, Qinggang Gao, Merve Gorguner, Giorgia Line, Martin Werner, and Paul Valdes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, 2025
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We describe a new development in a state-of-the-art computer atmosphere model, which follows the movement of the model’s water. This provides an efficient way to track all the model’s rain and snow back to the average location of the evaporative source as shown in a present-day simulation. The new scheme can be used in simulations of the future to predict how the sources of regional rain or snowfall may change due to human actions, providing useful information for water management purposes.
Lise Seland Graff, Jerry Tjiputra, Ada Gjermundsen, Andreas Born, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Heiko Goelzer, Yan-Chun He, Petra Margaretha Langebroek, Aleksi Nummelin, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Trude Storelvmo, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Andrea Rosendahl, Dandan Tao, Thomas Toniazzo, Camille Li, Stephen Outten, and Michael Schulz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472, 2025
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The magnitude of future Arctic amplification is highly uncertain. Using the Norwegian Earth system model, we explore the effect of improving the representation of clouds, ocean eddies, the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice, and ozone on the projected Arctic winter warming in a coordinated experiment set. These improvements all lead to enhanced projected Arctic warming, with the largest changes found in the sea-ice retreat regions and the largest uncertainty on the Atlantic side.
Qinggang Gao, Emilie Capron, Louise C. Sime, Rachael H. Rhodes, Rahul Sivankutty, Xu Zhang, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 21, 419–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025, 2025
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Marine sediment and ice core records suggest a warmer Southern Ocean and Antarctica at the early last interglacial, ~127 000 years ago. However, when only forced by orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations during that period, state-of-the-art climate models do not reproduce the magnitude of warming. Here we show that much of the warming at southern middle to high latitudes can be reproduced by a UK climate model, HadCM3, with a 3000-year freshwater forcing over the North Atlantic.
Katherine Power, Fernanda Matos, and Qiong Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4061, 2025
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This study explores the climate impact of reduced Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets using the Late Pliocene as an analogue for future climate. Results reveal a 9.5 °C rise in Antarctic surface temperature, 16 % sea ice loss, and increased precipitation. The simulations highlight weakened Antarctic Bottom Water formation and Southern Annular Mode persistence. By isolating albedo effects, this research provides insights into global climate dynamics and feedbacks.
Wee Wei Khoo, Juliane Müller, Oliver Esper, Wenshen Xiao, Christian Stepanek, Paul Gierz, Gerrit Lohmann, Walter Geibert, Jens Hefter, and Gesine Mollenhauer
Clim. Past, 21, 299–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-299-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-299-2025, 2025
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Using a multiproxy approach, we analyzed biomarkers and diatom assemblages from a marine sediment core from the Powell Basin, Weddell Sea. The results reveal the first continuous coastal Antarctic sea ice record since the Last Penultimate Glacial. Our findings contribute valuable insights into past glacial–interglacial sea ice responses to a changing climate and enhance our understanding of ocean–sea ice–ice shelf interactions and dynamics.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Sentia Goursaud Oger, Allegra N. LeGrande, Erin L. McClymont, Agatha de Boer, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Martin Werner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-288, 2025
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We used climate models to study how stable water isotopes in ice cores changed in the Arctic and Antarctica during the warm Last Interglacial (LIG) period. Whilst standard simulations underestimate polar warming, when the effects of ice sheet meltwater from the preceding deglaciation are included, there is a much better match with observations. Findings suggest that previous estimates of LIG Arctic warming were too high. Understanding these past polar changes can help improve future predictions.
Lauren R. Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Andrew P. Schurer, Nathan Luke Abraham, Lucie J. Lücke, Rob Wilson, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Myriam Khodri, and Kohei Yoshida
Clim. Past, 21, 161–184, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-161-2025, 2025
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Large volcanic eruptions have caused temperature deviations over the past 1000 years; however, climate model results and reconstructions of surface cooling using tree rings do not match. We explore this mismatch using the latest models and find a better match to tree-ring reconstructions for some eruptions. Our results show that the way in which eruptions are simulated in models matters for the comparison to tree-rings, particularly regarding the spatial spread of volcanic aerosol.
Silvana Ramos Buarque, Bertrand Decharme, Alina Lavinia Barbu, and Laurent Franchisteguy
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-451, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-451, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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The Crocus-ERA5 snow dataset supports Arctic snow monitoring and contributes to the Arctic Report Card. It improves on its predecessor with higher spatial resolution (0.25° vs. 0.75°), enhancing topographic and land cover detail. The product’s performance is assessed in terms of snow depth and extent compared to in situ observations and satellite data. The findings show a notable improvement, though biases remain, particularly in boreal forests, where the model tends to overestimate spring melt.
Pascale Braconnot, Nicolas Viovy, and Olivier Marti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4075, 2025
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This study highlights how the representation of the vegetation in a climate model triggers the atmospheric feedback controlling the top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes. Using simulations of the mid-Holocene and the preindustrial climates, we analyse cascading effects involving local snow-vegetation interactions, as well as tropical atmospheric water content. The relative roles of bare soil evaporation, photosynthesis and critical temperature for boreal tree regeneration are discussed.
Ram Singh, Alexander Koch, Allegra N. LeGrande, Kostas Tsigaridis, Riovie D. Ramos, Francis Ludlow, Igor Aleinov, Reto Ruedy, and Jed O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-219, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
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This study presents and demonstrates an experimental framework for asynchronous land-atmosphere coupling using the NASA GISS ModelE and LPJ-LMfire models for the 2.5ka period. This framework addresses the limitation of NASA ModelE, which does not have a fully dynamic vegetation model component. It also shows the role of model performance metrics, such as model bias and variability, and the simulated climate is evaluated against the multi-proxy paleoclimate reconstructions for the 2.5ka climate.
Biagio Giaccio, Bernd Wagner, Giovanni Zanchetta, Adele Bertini, Gian Paolo Cavinato, Roberto de Franco, Fabio Florindo, David A. Hodell, Thomas A. Neubauer, Sebastien Nomade, Alison Pereira, Laura Sadori, Sara Satolli, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Paul Albert, Paolo Boncio, Cindy De Jonge, Alexander Francke, Christine Heim, Alessia Masi, Marta Marchegiano, Helen M. Roberts, Anders Noren, and the MEME team
Sci. Dril., 33, 249–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-33-249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-33-249-2024, 2024
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A total of 42 Earth scientists from 14 countries met in Gioia dei Marsi, central Italy, on 23 to 27 October 2023 to explore the potential for deep drilling of the thick lake sediment sequence of the Fucino Basin. The aim was to reconstruct the history of climate, ecosystem, and biodiversity changes and of the explosive volcanism and tectonics in central Italy over the last 3.5 million years, constrained by a detailed radiometric chronology.
Frédéric Parrenin, Marie Bouchet, Christo Buizert, Emilie Capron, Ellen Corrick, Russell Drysdale, Kenji Kawamura, Amaëlle Landais, Robert Mulvaney, Ikumi Oyabu, and Sune Olander Rasmussen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8735–8750, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8735-2024, 2024
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The Paleochrono-1.1 probabilistic dating model allows users to derive a common and optimized chronology for several paleoclimatic sites from various archives (ice cores, speleothems, marine cores, lake cores, etc.). It combines prior sedimentation scenarios with chronological information such as dated horizons, dated intervals, stratigraphic links and (for ice cores) Δdepth observations. Paleochrono-1.1 is available under an open-source license.
Johan Liakka, Natalie S. Lord, Alan Kennedy-Asser, Daniel J. Lunt, Charles J. R. Williams, and Jens-Ove Näslund
Adv. Geosci., 65, 71–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-65-71-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-65-71-2024, 2024
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Future glaciations can affect the long-term safety of deep geological repositories for nuclear waste. This study introduces a simple method to assess frequency and duration of ice sheets over the next one million years at locations with past glaciations. The method considers uncertainties in human-caused CO2 emissions and climate change. It is easy to implement for any nuclear waste management organization that need to consider impacts of future ice sheets on long-term safety.
Lutz Schirrmeister, Margret C. Fuchs, Thomas Opel, Andrei Andreev, Frank Kienast, Andrea Schneider, Larisa Nazarova, Larisa Frolova, Svetlana Kuzmina, Tatiana Kuznetsova, Vladimir Tumskoy, Heidrun Matthes, Gerit Lohmann, Guido Grosse, Viktor Kunitsky, Hanno Meyer, Heike H. Zimmermann, Ulrike Herzschuh, Thomas Boehmer, Stuart Umbo, Sevi Modestou, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Anfisa Pismeniuk, Georg Schwamborn, Stephanie Kusch, and Sebastian Wetterich
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-74, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-74, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
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The strong ecosystem response to the Last Interglacial warming, reflected in the high diversity of proxies, shows the sensitivity of permafrost regions to rising temperatures. In particular, the development of thermokarst landscapes created a mosaic of terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic habitats, fostering an increase in biodiversity. This biodiversity is evident in the rich variety of terrestrial insects, vegetation, and aquatic invertebrates preserved in these deposits.
Sentia Goursaud Oger, Louise C. Sime, and Max Holloway
Clim. Past, 20, 2539–2560, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2539-2024, 2024
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Antarctic ice cores provide information about past temperatures. Here, we run new climate model simulations, including stable water isotopes for the historical period. Across one-third of Antarctica, there is no strong connection between isotopes and temperature and a weak connection for most of the rest of Antarctica. This disconnect between isotopes and temperature is largely driven by changes in Antarctic sea ice. Our results are helpful for temperature reconstructions from ice core records.
Helene Hoffmann, Jason Day, Rachael H. Rhodes, Mackenzie Grieman, Jack Humby, Isobel Rowell, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Robert Mulvaney, Sally Gibson, and Eric Wolff
The Cryosphere, 18, 4993–5013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4993-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4993-2024, 2024
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Ice cores are archives of past atmospheric conditions. In deep and old ice, the layers containing this information get thinned to the millimetre scale or below. We installed a setup for high-resolution (182 μm) chemical impurity measurements in ice cores using the laser ablation technique at the University of Cambridge. In a first application to the Skytrain ice core from Antarctica, we discuss the potential to detect fine-layered structures in ice up to an age of 26 000 years.
John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Francesco Muschitiello, and Keno Riechers
Clim. Past, 20, 2431–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024, 2024
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Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a series of abrupt past climate change events during which the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean in the North Atlantic underwent rapid changes. One current topic of interest is the order in which these different changes occurred, which remains unknown. In this work, we find that the current best method used to investigate this topic is subject to substantial bias. This implies that it is not possible to reliably determine the order of the different changes.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Robert A. Tomas, Nathan M. Urban, Ian Miller, Harriet Morgan, and Eric J. Steig
Clim. Past, 20, 2349–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2349-2024, 2024
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Studying climate conditions near the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) during Earth’s past warm periods informs us about how global warming may influence AIS ice loss. Using a global climate model, we investigate climate conditions near the AIS during the Last Interglacial (129 to 116 kyr ago), a period with warmer global temperatures and higher sea level than today. We identify the orbital and freshwater forcings that could cause ice loss and probe the mechanisms that lead to warmer climate conditions.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
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We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Ana-Cristina Mârza, Laurie Menviel, and Luke C. Skinner
Geochronology, 6, 503–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-503-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-503-2024, 2024
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Radiocarbon serves as a powerful dating tool, but the calibration of marine radiocarbon dates presents significant challenges because the whole surface ocean cannot be represented by a single calibration curve. Here we use climate model outputs and data to assess a novel method for developing regional marine calibration curves. Our results are encouraging and point to a way forward for solving the marine radiocarbon age calibration problem without relying on model simulations of the past.
Ling Zhang, Lu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Joël Arnault, Stefan Sobolowski, Anthony Musili Mwanthi, Pratik Kad, Mohammed Abdullahi Hassan, Tanja Portele, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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To address challenges related to unreliable hydrological simulations, we present an enhanced hydrological simulation with a refined climate model and a more comprehensive hydrological model. The model with the two parts outperforms that without, especially in migrating bias in peak flow and dry-season flow. Our findings highlight the enhanced hydrological simulation capability with the refined climate and lake module contributing 24 % and 76 % improvement, respectively.
Hu Yang, Xiaoxu Shi, Xulong Wang, Qingsong Liu, Yi Zhong, Xiaodong Liu, Youbin Sun, Yanjun Cai, Fei Liu, Gerrit Lohmann, Martin Werner, Zhimin Jian, Tainã M. L. Pinho, Hai Cheng, Lijuan Lu, Jiping Liu, Chao-Yuan Yang, Qinghua Yang, Yongyun Hu, Xing Cheng, Jingyu Zhang, and Dake Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2778, 2024
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The precession driven low-latitude hydrological cycle is not paced by hemispheric summer insolation, but shifting perihelion.
David J. Harning, Jonathan H. Raberg, Jamie M. McFarlin, Yarrow Axford, Christopher R. Florian, Kristín B. Ólafsdóttir, Sebastian Kopf, Julio Sepúlveda, Gifford H. Miller, and Áslaug Geirsdóttir
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4275–4293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4275-2024, 2024
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As human-induced global warming progresses, changes to Arctic precipitation are expected, but predictions are limited by an incomplete understanding of past changes in the hydrological system. Here, we measured water isotopes, a common tool to reconstruct past precipitation, from lakes, streams, and soils across Iceland. These data will allow robust reconstruction of past precipitation changes in Iceland in future studies.
Rachael H. Rhodes, Yvan Bollet-Quivogne, Piers Barnes, Mirko Severi, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 20, 2031–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2031-2024, 2024
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Some ionic components slowly move through glacier ice by diffusion, but the rate of this diffusion, its exact mechanism(s), and the factors that might influence it are poorly understood. In this study, we model how peaks in sulfate, deposited at Dome C on the Antarctic ice sheet after volcanic eruptions, change with depth and time. We find that the sulfate diffusion rate in ice is relatively fast in young ice near the surface, but the rate is markedly reduced over time.
Yugeng Chen, Pengyang Song, Xianyao Chen, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 20, 2001–2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2001-2024, 2024
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Our study examines the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a period with higher tidal dissipation. Despite increased tidal mixing, our model simulations show that the AMOC remained relatively shallow, consistent with paleoproxy data and resolving previous inconsistencies between proxy data and model simulations. This research highlights the importance of strong ocean stratification during the LGM and its interaction with tidal mixing.
Romilly Harris Stuart, Amaëlle Landais, Laurent Arnaud, Christo Buizert, Emilie Capron, Marie Dumont, Quentin Libois, Robert Mulvaney, Anaïs Orsi, Ghislain Picard, Frédéric Prié, Jeffrey Severinghaus, Barbara Stenni, and Patricia Martinerie
The Cryosphere, 18, 3741–3763, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3741-2024, 2024
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Ice core δO2/N2 records are useful dating tools due to their local insolation pacing. A precise understanding of the physical mechanism driving this relationship, however, remain ambiguous. By compiling data from 15 polar sites, we find a strong dependence of mean δO2/N2 on accumulation rate and temperature in addition to the well-documented insolation dependence. Snowpack modelling is used to investigate which physical properties drive the mechanistic dependence on these local parameters.
Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shivangi Tiwari, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, and Qiong Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1735–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, 2024
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Palaeoclimate reconstructions suggest that, around 6000 years ago, a greening of the Sahara took place, accompanied by climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere at middle to high latitudes. In this study, a climate model is used to investigate how this drastic environmental change in the Sahara impacted remote regions. Specifically, climate simulations reveal significant modifications in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, affecting North American and European climates.
Dorothea Elisabeth Moser, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Anja Eichler, and Eric Wolff
The Cryosphere, 18, 2691–2718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2691-2024, 2024
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Increasing temperatures worldwide lead to more melting of glaciers and ice caps, even in the polar regions. This is why ice-core scientists need to prepare to analyse records affected by melting and refreezing. In this paper, we present a summary of how near-surface melt forms, what structural imprints it leaves in snow, how various signatures used for ice-core climate reconstruction are altered, and how we can still extract valuable insights from melt-affected ice cores.
Dominique Raynaud, Qiuzhen Yin, Emilie Capron, Zhipeng Wu, Frédéric Parrenin, André Berger, and Vladimir Lipenkov
Clim. Past, 20, 1269–1282, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1269-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1269-2024, 2024
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There is a lack of reconstructions from Antarctic ice cores of the temperature during the summer, a critical season in terms of solar energy received, preventing a good understanding of the link between Antarctic past climate and astronomically induced insolation changes. Here, the variations in total air content in an Antarctic ice core are found to be correlated to local summer temperatures simulated with a climate model. This tracer can be used to reconstruct past local summer temperatures.
Anni Zhao, Ran Feng, Chris M. Brierley, Jian Zhang, and Yongyun Hu
Clim. Past, 20, 1195–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1195-2024, 2024
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We analyse simulations with idealised aerosol scenarios to examine the importance of aerosol forcing on mPWP precipitation and how aerosol uncertainty could explain the data–model mismatch. We find further warming, a narrower and stronger ITCZ, and monsoon domain rainfall change after removal of industrial emissions. Aerosols have more impacts on tropical precipitation than the mPWP boundary conditions. This highlights the importance of prescribed aerosol scenarios in simulating mPWP climate.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Xiangyu Li, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1067–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, 2024
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Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mid-Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) cause the Southern Ocean surface to become fresher and warmer, which affects the global ocean circulation. The CO2 concentration and the smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet both have a similar and approximately equal impact on the Southern Ocean. The conditions of the Southern Ocean in the mid-Pliocene could therefore be analogous to those in a future climate with smaller ice sheets.
Lars Ackermann, Thomas Rackow, Kai Himstedt, Paul Gierz, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3279–3301, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, 2024
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We present long-term simulations with interactive icebergs in the Southern Ocean. By melting, icebergs reduce the temperature and salinity of the surrounding ocean. In our simulations, we find that this cooling effect of iceberg melting is not limited to the surface ocean but also reaches the deep ocean and propagates northward into all ocean basins. Additionally, the formation of deep-water masses in the Southern Ocean is enhanced.
Brooke Snoll, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Laurie Menviel, Takashi Obase, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Chengfei He, Feng He, Marie Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Juan Muglia, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 789–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, 2024
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Geological records show rapid climate change throughout the recent deglaciation. The drivers of these changes are still misunderstood but are often attributed to shifts in the Atlantic Ocean circulation from meltwater input. A cumulative effort to understand these processes prompted numerous simulations of this period. We use these to explain the chain of events and our collective ability to simulate them. The results demonstrate the importance of the meltwater amount used in the simulation.
Hidetaka Kobayashi, Akira Oka, Takashi Obase, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 20, 769–787, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-769-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-769-2024, 2024
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This study examines the transient response of the ocean carbon cycle to climate change since the last ice age by using an ocean general circulation model. Our carbon cycle model calculates atmospheric pCO2 changes that are consistent with ice core records but whose magnitude is underestimated. Our analysis of carbon isotopes suggests that improving the expression of activated ocean ventilation and suppressing biological productivity are critical in simulating atmospheric pCO2 changes.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Simon L. L. Michel, Daniel F. Balting, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David N. Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Clim. Past, 20, 573–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, 2024
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The main aim of this paper is to present the summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) reconstruction dataset for the last 400 years over Europe based on δ18O records by using a random forest approach. We provide both a spatial and a temporal long-term perspective on the past summer VPD and new insights into the relationship between summer VPD and large-scale atmospheric circulation. This is the first gridded reconstruction of the European summer VPD over the past 400 years.
Tom Keel, Chris Brierley, and Tamsin Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1229–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, 2024
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Jet streams are an important control on surface weather as their speed and shape can modify the properties of weather systems. Establishing trends in the operation of jet streams may provide some indication of the future of weather in a warming world. Despite this, it has not been easy to establish trends, as many methods have been used to characterise them in data. We introduce a tool containing various implementations of jet stream statistics and algorithms that works in a standardised manner.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
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Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Sarah L. Bradley, Raymond Sellevold, Michele Petrini, Miren Vizcaino, Sotiria Georgiou, Jiang Zhu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Marcus Lofverstrom
Clim. Past, 20, 211–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, 2024
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was the most recent period with large ice sheets in Europe and North America. We provide a detailed analysis of surface mass and energy components for two time periods that bracket the LGM: 26 and 21 ka BP. We use an earth system model which has been adopted for modern ice sheets. We find that all Northern Hemisphere ice sheets have a positive surface mass balance apart from the British and Irish ice sheets and the North American ice sheet complex.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
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Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Helen Weierbach, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Kostas Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15491–15505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15491-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15491-2023, 2023
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Volcanic aerosols impact global and regional climate conditions but can vary depending on pre-existing initial climate conditions. We ran an ensemble of volcanic aerosol simulations under varying ENSO and NAO initial conditions to understand how initial climate states impact the modeled response to volcanic forcing. Overall we found that initial NAO conditions can impact the strength of the first winter post-eruptive response but are also affected by the choice of anomaly and sampling routine.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Christian B. Rodehacke, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 5131–5136, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5131-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5131-2023, 2023
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We compare components of the surface energy balance from two datasets, ERA5 and ERA-Interim, which can be used to estimate the surface mass balance (SMB) on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). ERA5 differs significantly from ERA-Interim, especially in the melt regions with lower temperatures and stronger shortwave radiation. Consequently, methods that previously estimated the GrIS SMB from ERA-Interim need to be carefully recalibrated before conversion to ERA5 forcing.
Putian Zhou, Zhengyao Lu, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Qiong Zhang, Juha Lento, Jianpu Bian, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Markku Kulmala, Michael Boy, and Risto Makkonen
Clim. Past, 19, 2445–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, 2023
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A Green Sahara with enhanced rainfall and larger vegetation cover existed in northern Africa about 6000 years ago. Biosphere–atmosphere interactions are found to be critical to explaining this wet period. Based on modeled vegetation reconstruction data, we simulated dust emissions and aerosol formation, which are key factors in biosphere–atmosphere interactions. Our results also provide a benchmark of aerosol climatology for future paleo-climate simulation experiments.
Takashi Obase, Laurie Menviel, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Tristan Vadsaria, Ruza Ivanovic, Brooke Snoll, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Paul Valdes, Lauren Gregoire, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Roche, Fanny Lhardy, Chengfei He, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Zhengyu Liu, and Wing-Le Chan
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-86, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
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This study analyses transient simulations of the last deglaciation performed by six climate models to understand the processes driving southern high latitude temperature changes. We find that atmospheric CO2 changes and AMOC changes are the primary drivers of the major warming and cooling during the middle stage of the deglaciation. The multi-model analysis highlights the model’s sensitivity of CO2, AMOC to meltwater, and the meltwater history on temperature changes in southern high latitudes.
Marie Bouchet, Amaëlle Landais, Antoine Grisart, Frédéric Parrenin, Frédéric Prié, Roxanne Jacob, Elise Fourré, Emilie Capron, Dominique Raynaud, Vladimir Ya Lipenkov, Marie-France Loutre, Thomas Extier, Anders Svensson, Etienne Legrain, Patricia Martinerie, Markus Leuenberger, Wei Jiang, Florian Ritterbusch, Zheng-Tian Lu, and Guo-Min Yang
Clim. Past, 19, 2257–2286, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2257-2023, 2023
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A new federative chronology for five deep polar ice cores retrieves 800 000 years of past climate variations with improved accuracy. Precise ice core timescales are key to studying the mechanisms linking changes in the Earth’s orbit to the diverse climatic responses (temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations). To construct the chronology, new measurements from the oldest continuous ice core as well as glaciological modeling estimates were combined in a statistical model.
Laurie C. Menviel, Paul Spence, Andrew E. Kiss, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Hakase Hayashida, Matthew H. England, and Darryn Waugh
Biogeosciences, 20, 4413–4431, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4413-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4413-2023, 2023
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As the ocean absorbs 25% of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon, it is important to understand the impact of climate change on the flux of carbon between the ocean and the atmosphere. Here, we use a very high-resolution ocean, sea-ice, carbon cycle model to show that the capability of the Southern Ocean to uptake CO2 has decreased over the last 40 years due to a strengthening and poleward shift of the southern hemispheric westerlies. This trend is expected to continue over the coming century.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Hu Yang, Roberta D'Agostino, Jiping Liu, Chaoyuan Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 19, 2157–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, 2023
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marks the most recent extremely cold and dry time period of our planet. Using AWI-ESM, we quantify the relative importance of Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHG) and ice sheets (IS) in determining the LGM climate. Our results suggest that both GHG and IS play important roles in shaping the LGM temperature. Continental ice sheets exert a major control on precipitation, atmospheric dynamics, and the intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Stephen Hunter, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood
Clim. Past, 19, 2053–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, 2023
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We investigate the Maritime Continent climate in the mid-Piacenzian warm period and find it is warmer and wetter and the sea surface salinity is lower compared with preindustrial period. Besides, the fresh and warm water transfer through the Maritime Continent was stronger. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models in the multimodel results, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean, which could reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the multimodel mean.
Sabrina Hohmann, Michal Kucera, and Anne de Vernal
Clim. Past, 19, 2027–2051, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2027-2023, 2023
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Drivers for dinocyst assemblage compositions differ regionally and through time. Shifts in the assemblages can sometimes only be interpreted robustly by locally and sometimes globally calibrated transfer functions, questioning the reliability of environmental reconstructions. We suggest the necessity of a thorough evaluation of transfer function performance and significance for downcore applications to disclose the drivers for present and fossil dinocyst assemblages in a studied core location.
Ryan Love, Lev Tarasov, Heather Andres, Alan Condron, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, 2023
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Freshwater injection into bands across the North Atlantic are a mainstay of climate modelling when investigating topics such as climate change or the role of glacial runoff in the glacial climate system. However, this approach is unrealistic and results in a systematic bias in the climate response to a given flux of freshwater. We evaluate the magnitude of this bias by comparison to two other approaches for introducing freshwater into a coupled climate model setup for glacial conditions.
Peter J. K. Puleo and Yarrow Axford
Clim. Past, 19, 1777–1791, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1777-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1777-2023, 2023
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We used two lake sediment records at different elevations and landscape evidence to find that a southern Greenland outlet glacier advanced ~ 3700 years ago and then retreated ~ 1600 years ago. This retreat is unlike other nearby outlet glaciers, possibly because of the complex local ice structure or greater sensitivity to snowfall. We also find that the advanced ice surface had an elevation of ~ 670 m a.s.l. (~ 250 m higher than today) from ~ 3700 to 1600 years ago.
Xiaoxu Shi, Alexandre Cauquoin, Gerrit Lohmann, Lukas Jonkers, Qiang Wang, Hu Yang, Yuchen Sun, and Martin Werner
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5153–5178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, 2023
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We developed a new climate model with isotopic capabilities and simulated the pre-industrial and mid-Holocene periods. Despite certain regional model biases, the modeled isotope composition is in good agreement with observations and reconstructions. Based on our analyses, the observed isotope–temperature relationship in polar regions may have a summertime bias. Using daily model outputs, we developed a novel isotope-based approach to determine the onset date of the West African summer monsoon.
Isobel Rowell, Carlos Martin, Robert Mulvaney, Helena Pryer, Dieter Tetzner, Emily Doyle, Hara Madhav Talasila, Jilu Li, and Eric Wolff
Clim. Past, 19, 1699–1714, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1699-2023, 2023
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We present an age scale for a new type of ice core from a vulnerable region in West Antarctic, which is lacking in longer-term (greater than a few centuries) ice core records. The Sherman Island core extends to greater than 1 kyr. We provide modelling evidence for the potential of a 10 kyr long core. We show that this new type of ice core can be robustly dated and that climate records from this core will be a significant addition to existing regional climate records.
Di Cai, Gerrit Lohmann, Xianyao Chen, and Monica Ionita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1646, 2023
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Our study reveals how a decline in autumn sea ice in the Barents-Kara Seas leads to severe winters in Europe. Using observational data, we illustrate that Arctic sea ice loss isn't just a local issue – it impacts harsh winter conditions globally. Current climate models struggle to reflect these effects accurately, indicating a need for more research. Gaining a more nuanced understanding of this relationship will enhance our climate predictions and preparation for future extremes.
Himadri Saini, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, and Karin Kvale
Clim. Past, 19, 1559–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1559-2023, 2023
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Understanding the changes in atmospheric CO2 during the last glacial cycle is crucial to comprehend the impact of climate change in the future. Previous research has hypothesised a key role of greater aeolian iron input into the Southern Ocean in influencing the global atmospheric CO2 levels by impacting the changes in the marine phytoplankton response. In our study, we test this iron hypothesis using climate modelling and constrain the impact of ocean iron supply on global CO2 decrease.
Gustav Strandberg, Jie Chen, Ralph Fyfe, Erik Kjellström, Johan Lindström, Anneli Poska, Qiong Zhang, and Marie-José Gaillard
Clim. Past, 19, 1507–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, 2023
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The impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate around 2500 years ago is studied using reconstructions and models. The results suggest that LULCC impacted the climate in parts of Europe. Reconstructed LULCC shows up to 1.5 °C higher temperature in parts of Europe in some seasons. This relatively strong response implies that anthropogenic LULCC that had occurred by the late prehistoric period may have already affected the European climate by 2500 years ago.
Takashi Obase, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Fuyuki Saito, Shun Tsutaki, Shuji Fujita, Kenji Kawamura, and Hideaki Motoyama
The Cryosphere, 17, 2543–2562, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2543-2023, 2023
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We use a one-dimensional ice-flow model to examine the most suitable core location near Dome Fuji (DF), Antarctica. This model computes the temporal evolution of age and temperature from past to present. We investigate the influence of different parameters of climate and ice sheet on the ice's basal age and compare the results with ground radar surveys. We find that the local ice thickness primarily controls the age because it is critical to the basal melting, which can eliminate the old ice.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Takashi Obase, Wing-Le Chan, André Paul, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 19, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1275-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1275-2023, 2023
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Stable water isotopes are tracers of climate processes occurring in the hydrological cycle. They are widely used to reconstruct the past variations of polar temperature before the instrumental era thanks to their measurements in ice cores. However, the relationship between measured isotopes and temperature has large uncertainties. In our study, we investigate how the sea surface conditions (temperature, sea ice, ocean circulation) impact this relationship for a cold to warm climate change.
Léa Terray, Emmanuelle Stoetzel, Eslem Ben Arous, Masa Kageyama, Raphaël Cornette, and Pascale Braconnot
Clim. Past, 19, 1245–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1245-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1245-2023, 2023
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The reconstruction of paleoenvironments has long been a subject of great interest, particularly to study past biodiversity. Paleoenvironmental proxies often show inconsistencies, and age estimations can vary depending on the method used. We demonstrate the ability of paleoclimate simulations to address these discrepancies, illustrating the strong potential of our cross-disciplinary consistency approach to refine the context of archeological and paleontological sites.
Qi Shu, Qiang Wang, Chuncheng Guo, Zhenya Song, Shizhu Wang, Yan He, and Fangli Qiao
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2539–2563, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2539-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2539-2023, 2023
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Ocean models are often used for scientific studies on the Arctic Ocean. Here the Arctic Ocean simulations by state-of-the-art global ocean–sea-ice models participating in the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) were evaluated. The simulations on Arctic Ocean hydrography, freshwater content, stratification, sea surface height, and gateway transports were assessed and the common biases were detected. The simulations forced by different atmospheric forcing were also evaluated.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, and the D–O community members
Clim. Past, 19, 915–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, 2023
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Greenland ice core records feature Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events, abrupt warming episodes followed by a gradual-cooling phase during mid-glacial periods. There is uncertainty whether current climate models can effectively represent the processes that cause D–O events. Here, we propose a Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS3) baseline protocol which is intended to provide modelling groups investigating D–O oscillations with a common framework.
Claire Waelbroeck, Jerry Tjiputra, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Eystein Jansen, Natalia Vázquez Riveiros, Samuel Toucanne, Frédérique Eynaud, Linda Rossignol, Fabien Dewilde, Elodie Marchès, Susana Lebreiro, and Silvia Nave
Clim. Past, 19, 901–913, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-901-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-901-2023, 2023
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The precise geometry and extent of Atlantic circulation changes that accompanied rapid climate changes of the last glacial period are still unknown. Here, we combine carbon isotopic records from 18 Atlantic sediment cores with numerical simulations and decompose the carbon isotopic change across a cold-to-warm transition into remineralization and circulation components. Our results show that the replacement of southern-sourced by northern-sourced water plays a dominant role below ~ 3000 m depth.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Vallet-Malmierca, Agatha M. de Boer, and Marie Sicard
Clim. Past, 19, 883–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, 2023
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It is not known if the Last Interglacial (LIG) experienced Arctic summers that were sea ice free: models show a wide spread in LIG Arctic temperature and sea ice results. Evaluation against sea ice markers is hampered by few observations. Here, an assessment of 11 climate model simulations against summer temperatures shows that the most skilful models have a 74 %–79 % reduction in LIG sea ice. The measurements of LIG areas indicate a likely mix of ice-free and near-ice-free LIG summers.
Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Jeff Ridley, and David Schroeder
Clim. Past, 19, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, 2023
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We investigate the response of the atmosphere, ocean, and ice domains to the release of a large volume of glacial meltwaters thought to have occurred during the Last Interglacial period. We show that the signal that originated in the North Atlantic travels over great distances across the globe. It modifies the ocean gyre circulation in the Northern Hemisphere as well as the belt of westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere, with consequences for Antarctic sea ice.
Robert Mulvaney, Eric W. Wolff, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Helene H. Hoffmann, Jack D. Humby, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Rachael H. Rhodes, Isobel F. Rowell, Frédéric Parrenin, Loïc Schmidely, Hubertus Fischer, Thomas F. Stocker, Marcus Christl, Raimund Muscheler, Amaelle Landais, and Frédéric Prié
Clim. Past, 19, 851–864, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-851-2023, 2023
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We present an age scale for a new ice core drilled at Skytrain Ice Rise, an ice rise facing the Ronne Ice Shelf in Antarctica. Various measurements in the ice and air phases are used to match the ice core to other Antarctic cores that have already been dated, and a new age scale is constructed. The 651 m ice core includes ice that is confidently dated to 117 000–126 000 years ago, in the last interglacial. Older ice is found deeper down, but there are flow disturbances in the deeper ice.
Lauren E. Burton, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Stephen J. Hunter, Xiangyu Li, W. Richard Peltier, Ning Tan, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 747–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-747-2023, 2023
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Warm climates of the Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) are similar to projections of the near future. We find elevated concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide to be the most important forcing for driving changes in Pliocene surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation. However, changes caused by the nature of Pliocene ice sheets and orography are also important, affecting the extent to which we can use the Pliocene as an analogue for our warmer future.
Chris Brierley, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Edward Grindrod, and Jonathan Barnsley
Clim. Past, 19, 681–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, 2023
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Year-to-year variations in the weather conditions over the Indian Ocean have important consequences for the substantial fraction of the Earth's population that live near it. This work looks at how these variations respond to climate change – both past and future. The models rarely agree, suggesting a weak, uncertain response to climate change.
David A. Hodell, Simon J. Crowhurst, Lucas Lourens, Vasiliki Margari, John Nicolson, James E. Rolfe, Luke C. Skinner, Nicola C. Thomas, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Maryline J. Mleneck-Vautravers, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 19, 607–636, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-607-2023, 2023
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We produced a 1.5-million-year-long history of climate change at International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1385 of the Iberian margin, a well-known location for rapidly accumulating sediments on the seafloor. Our record demonstrates that longer-term orbital changes in Earth's climate were persistently overprinted by abrupt millennial-to-centennial climate variability. The occurrence of abrupt climate change is modulated by the slower variations in Earth's orbit and climate background state.
Niccolò Maffezzoli, Eliza Cook, Willem G. M. van der Bilt, Eivind N. Støren, Daniela Festi, Florian Muthreich, Alistair W. R. Seddon, François Burgay, Giovanni Baccolo, Amalie R. F. Mygind, Troels Petersen, Andrea Spolaor, Sebastiano Vascon, Marcello Pelillo, Patrizia Ferretti, Rafael S. dos Reis, Jefferson C. Simões, Yuval Ronen, Barbara Delmonte, Marco Viccaro, Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, and Carlo Barbante
The Cryosphere, 17, 539–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-539-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-539-2023, 2023
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Multiple lines of research in ice core science are limited by manually intensive and time-consuming optical microscopy investigations for the detection of insoluble particles, from pollen grains to volcanic shards. To help overcome these limitations and support researchers, we present a novel methodology for the identification and autonomous classification of ice core insoluble particles based on flow image microscopy and neural networks.
Ikumi Oyabu, Kenji Kawamura, Shuji Fujita, Ryo Inoue, Hideaki Motoyama, Kotaro Fukui, Motohiro Hirabayashi, Yu Hoshina, Naoyuki Kurita, Fumio Nakazawa, Hiroshi Ohno, Konosuke Sugiura, Toshitaka Suzuki, Shun Tsutaki, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Masashi Niwano, Frédéric Parrenin, Fuyuki Saito, and Masakazu Yoshimori
Clim. Past, 19, 293–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-293-2023, 2023
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We reconstructed accumulation rate around Dome Fuji, Antarctica, over the last 5000 years from 15 shallow ice cores and seven snow pits. We found a long-term decreasing trend in the preindustrial period, which may be associated with secular surface cooling and sea ice expansion. Centennial-scale variations were also found, which may partly be related to combinations of volcanic, solar and greenhouse gas forcings. The most rapid and intense increases of accumulation rate occurred since 1850 CE.
Ram Singh, Kostas Tsigaridis, Allegra N. LeGrande, Francis Ludlow, and Joseph G. Manning
Clim. Past, 19, 249–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, 2023
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This work is a modeling effort to investigate the hydroclimatic impacts of a volcanic
quartetduring 168–158 BCE over the Nile River basin in the context of Ancient Egypt's Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE). The model simulated a robust surface cooling (~ 1.0–1.5 °C), suppressing the African monsoon (deficit of > 1 mm d−1 over East Africa) and agriculturally vital Nile summer flooding. Our result supports the hypothesized relation between volcanic eruptions, hydroclimatic shocks, and societal impacts.
Karita Kajanto, Fiammetta Straneo, and Kerim Nisancioglu
The Cryosphere, 17, 371–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-371-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-371-2023, 2023
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Many outlet glaciers in Greenland are connected to the ocean by narrow glacial fjords, where warm water melts the glacier from underneath. Ocean water is modified in these fjords through processes that are poorly understood, particularly iceberg melt. We use a model to show how iceberg melt cools down Ilulissat Icefjord and causes circulation to take place deeper in the fjord than if there were no icebergs. This causes the glacier to melt less and from a smaller area than without icebergs.
Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
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We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Pengyang Song, Dmitry Sidorenko, Patrick Scholz, Maik Thomas, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 383–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-383-2023, 2023
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Tides have essential effects on the ocean and climate. Most previous research applies parameterised tidal mixing to discuss their effects in models. By comparing the effect of a tidal mixing parameterisation and tidal forcing on the ocean state, we assess the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods. Our results show that tidal mixing in the North Pacific Ocean strongly affects the global thermohaline circulation. We also list some effects that are not considered in the parameterisation.
Zhiyi Jiang, Chris Brierley, David Thornalley, and Sophie Sax
Clim. Past, 19, 107–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-107-2023, 2023
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This work looks at a series of model simulations of two past warm climates. We focus on the deep overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. We show that there are no robust changes in the overall strength of the circulation. We also show that the circulation hardly plays a role in changes in the surface climate across the globe.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Zixuan Han, Alan M. Haywood, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, 2023
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We study the behavior of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Pliocene. The mid-Pliocene was about 3 million years ago and had a similar CO2 concentration to today. We show that the stronger AMOC during this period relates to changes in geography and that this has a significant influence on ocean temperatures and heat transported northwards by the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the behavior of the mid-Pliocene AMOC can help us to learn more about our future climate.
Eric W. Wolff, Andrea Burke, Laura Crick, Emily A. Doyle, Helen M. Innes, Sue H. Mahony, James W. B. Rae, Mirko Severi, and R. Stephen J. Sparks
Clim. Past, 19, 23–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-23-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-23-2023, 2023
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Large volcanic eruptions leave an imprint of a spike of sulfate deposition that can be measured in ice cores. Here we use a method that logs the number and size of large eruptions recorded in an Antarctic core in a consistent way through the last 200 000 years. The rate of recorded eruptions is variable but shows no trends. In particular, there is no increase in recorded eruptions during deglaciation periods. This is consistent with most recorded eruptions being from lower latitudes.
Jaap H. Nienhuis, Jana R. Cox, Joey O'Dell, Douglas A. Edmonds, and Paolo Scussolini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4087–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, 2022
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Humans build levees to protect themselves against floods. We need to know where they are to correctly predict flooding, for example from sea level rise. Here we have looked through documents to find levees, and checked that they exist using satellite imagery. We developed a global levee map, available at www.opendelve.eu, and we found that 24 % of people in deltas are protected by levees.
Takahito Mitsui, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 18, 1983–1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1983-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1983-2022, 2022
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We provide simple quantitative models for the interglacial and glacial intensities over the last 800 000 years. Our results suggest that the memory of previous climate states and the time course of the insolation in both hemispheres are crucial for understanding interglacial and glacial intensities. In our model, the shift in interglacial intensities at the Mid-Brunhes Event (~430 ka) is ultimately attributed to the amplitude modulation of obliquity.
Jan Streffing, Dmitry Sidorenko, Tido Semmler, Lorenzo Zampieri, Patrick Scholz, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Nikolay Koldunov, Thomas Rackow, Joakim Kjellsson, Helge Goessling, Marylou Athanase, Qiang Wang, Jan Hegewald, Dmitry V. Sein, Longjiang Mu, Uwe Fladrich, Dirk Barbi, Paul Gierz, Sergey Danilov, Stephan Juricke, Gerrit Lohmann, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6399–6427, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6399-2022, 2022
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We developed a new atmosphere–ocean coupled climate model, AWI-CM3. Our model is significantly more computationally efficient than its predecessors AWI-CM1 and AWI-CM2. We show that the model, although cheaper to run, provides results of similar quality when modeling the historic period from 1850 to 2014. We identify the remaining weaknesses to outline future work. Finally we preview an improved simulation where the reduction in computational cost has to be invested in higher model resolution.
Helene M. Hoffmann, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Amy C. F. King, Jenna A. Epifanio, Kaden Martin, Diana Vladimirova, Helena V. Pryer, Emily Doyle, Axel Schmidt, Jack D. Humby, Isobel F. Rowell, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Robert Mulvaney, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 18, 1831–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1831-2022, 2022
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The WACSWAIN project (WArm Climate Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the last INterglacial) investigates the fate of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last warm period on Earth (115 000–130 000 years before present). Within this framework an ice core was recently drilled at Skytrain Ice Rise. In this study we present a stratigraphic chronology of that ice core based on absolute age markers and annual layer counting for the last 2000 years.
Xavier Crosta, Karen E. Kohfeld, Helen C. Bostock, Matthew Chadwick, Alice Du Vivier, Oliver Esper, Johan Etourneau, Jacob Jones, Amy Leventer, Juliane Müller, Rachael H. Rhodes, Claire S. Allen, Pooja Ghadi, Nele Lamping, Carina B. Lange, Kelly-Anne Lawler, David Lund, Alice Marzocchi, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Abhilash Nair, Molly Patterson, Jennifer Pike, Joseph G. Prebble, Christina Riesselman, Henrik Sadatzki, Louise C. Sime, Sunil K. Shukla, Lena Thöle, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Wenshen Xiao, and Jiao Yang
Clim. Past, 18, 1729–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, 2022
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Despite its importance in the global climate, our knowledge of Antarctic sea-ice changes throughout the last glacial–interglacial cycle is extremely limited. As part of the Cycles of Sea Ice Dynamics in the Earth system (C-SIDE) Working Group, we review marine- and ice-core-based sea-ice proxies to provide insights into their applicability and limitations. By compiling published records, we provide information on Antarctic sea-ice dynamics over the past 130 000 years.
Shun Tsutaki, Shuji Fujita, Kenji Kawamura, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Kotaro Fukui, Hideaki Motoyama, Yu Hoshina, Fumio Nakazawa, Takashi Obase, Hiroshi Ohno, Ikumi Oyabu, Fuyuki Saito, Konosuke Sugiura, and Toshitaka Suzuki
The Cryosphere, 16, 2967–2983, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2967-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2967-2022, 2022
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We constructed an ice thickness map across the Dome Fuji region, East Antarctica, from improved radar data and previous data that had been collected since the late 1980s. The data acquired using the improved radar systems allowed basal topography to be identified with higher accuracy. The new ice thickness data show the bedrock topography, particularly the complex terrain of subglacial valleys and highlands south of Dome Fuji, with substantially high detail.
Janica C. Bühler, Josefine Axelsson, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Jens Fohlmeister, Allegra N. LeGrande, Madhavan Midhun, Jesper Sjolte, Martin Werner, Kei Yoshimura, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 18, 1625–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, 2022
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We collected and standardized the output of five isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium and assess differences and similarities to records from a global speleothem database. Modeled isotope variations mostly arise from temperature differences. While lower-resolution speleothems do not capture extreme changes to the extent of models, they show higher variability on multi-decadal timescales. As no model excels in all comparisons, we advise a multi-model approach where possible.
Eric W. Wolff, Hubertus Fischer, Tas van Ommen, and David A. Hodell
Clim. Past, 18, 1563–1577, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1563-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1563-2022, 2022
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Projects are underway to drill ice cores in Antarctica reaching 1.5 Myr back in time. Dating such cores will be challenging. One method is to match records from the new core against datasets from existing marine sediment cores. Here we explore the options for doing this and assess how well the ice and marine records match over the existing 800 000-year time period. We are able to recommend a strategy for using marine data to place an age scale on the new ice cores.
Stefan Mulitza, Torsten Bickert, Helen C. Bostock, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Barbara Donner, Aline Govin, Naomi Harada, Enqing Huang, Heather Johnstone, Henning Kuhnert, Michael Langner, Frank Lamy, Lester Lembke-Jene, Lorraine Lisiecki, Jean Lynch-Stieglitz, Lars Max, Mahyar Mohtadi, Gesine Mollenhauer, Juan Muglia, Dirk Nürnberg, André Paul, Carsten Rühlemann, Janne Repschläger, Rajeev Saraswat, Andreas Schmittner, Elisabeth L. Sikes, Robert F. Spielhagen, and Ralf Tiedemann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2553–2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2553-2022, 2022
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Stable isotope ratios of foraminiferal shells from deep-sea sediments preserve key information on the variability of ocean circulation and ice volume. We present the first global atlas of harmonized raw downcore oxygen and carbon isotope ratios of various planktonic and benthic foraminiferal species. The atlas is a foundation for the analyses of the history of Earth system components, for finding future coring sites, and for teaching marine stratigraphy and paleoceanography.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
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Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Ryan A. Green, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Xavier Crosta, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 18, 845–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, 2022
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Climate models are used to predict future climate changes and as such, it is important to assess their performance in simulating past climate changes. We analyze seasonal sea-ice cover over the Southern Ocean simulated from numerical PMIP3, PMIP4 and LOVECLIM simulations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Comparing these simulations to proxy data, we provide improved estimates of LGM seasonal sea-ice cover. Our estimate of summer sea-ice extent is 20 %–30 % larger than previous estimates.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
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The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Marie Sicard, Masa Kageyama, Sylvie Charbit, Pascale Braconnot, and Jean-Baptiste Madeleine
Clim. Past, 18, 607–629, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-607-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-607-2022, 2022
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The Last Interglacial (129–116 ka) is characterised by an increased summer insolation over the Arctic region, which leads to a strong temperature rise. The aim of this study is to identify and quantify the main processes and feedback causing this Arctic warming. Using the IPSL-CM6A-LR model, we investigate changes in the energy budget relative to the pre-industrial period. We highlight the crucial role of Arctic sea ice cover, ocean and clouds on the Last Interglacial Arctic warming.
Laura J. Larocca and Yarrow Axford
Clim. Past, 18, 579–606, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-579-2022, 2022
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This paper synthesizes 66 records of glacier variations over the Holocene from lake archives across seven Arctic regions. We find that summers only moderately warmer than today drove major environmental change across the Arctic in the early Holocene, including the widespread loss of glaciers. In comparison, future projections of Arctic temperature change far exceed estimated early Holocene values in most locations, portending the eventual loss of most of the Arctic's small glaciers.
Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Zhiyi Jiang, Rachel Eyles, Damián Oyarzún, and Jose Gomez-Dans
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2475–2488, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2475-2022, 2022
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We describe the way that our group have chosen to perform our recent analyses of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project ensemble simulations. We document the approach used to obtain and curate the simulations, process those outputs via the Climate Variability Diagnostics Package, and then continue through to compute ensemble-wide statistics and create figures. We also provide interim data from all steps, the codes used and the ability for users to perform their own analyses.
Dipayan Choudhury, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Matthew Chamberlain, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 18, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-507-2022, 2022
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We investigate the effects of a warmer climate from the Earth's paleoclimate (last interglacial) on the marine carbon cycle of the Southern Ocean using a carbon-cycle-enabled state-of-the-art climate model. We find a 150 % increase in CO2 outgassing during this period, which results from competition between higher sea surface temperatures and weaker oceanic circulation. From this we unequivocally infer that the carbon uptake by the Southern Ocean will reduce under a future warming scenario.
Davide Zanchettin, Claudia Timmreck, Myriam Khodri, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Manabu Abe, Slimane Bekki, Jason Cole, Shih-Wei Fang, Wuhu Feng, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Nicolas Lebas, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Landon Rieger, Alan Robock, Sara Rubinetti, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Helen Weierbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2265–2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, 2022
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This paper provides metadata and first analyses of the volc-pinatubo-full experiment of CMIP6-VolMIP. Results from six Earth system models reveal significant differences in radiative flux anomalies that trace back to different implementations of volcanic forcing. Surface responses are in contrast overall consistent across models, reflecting the large spread due to internal variability. A second phase of VolMIP shall consider both aspects toward improved protocol for volc-pinatubo-full.
Sebastian Hinck, Evan J. Gowan, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 16, 941–965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022, 2022
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Proglacial lakes were pervasive along the retreating continental ice margins after the Last Glacial Maximum. Similarly to the marine ice boundary, interactions at the ice-lake interface impact ice sheet dynamics and mass balance. Previous numerical ice sheet modeling studies did not include a dynamical lake boundary. We describe the implementation of an adaptive lake boundary condition in PISM and apply the model to the glacial retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.
Justus Contzen, Thorsten Dickhaus, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1803–1820, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1803-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1803-2022, 2022
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Climate models are of paramount importance to predict future climate changes. Since many severe consequences of climate change are due to extreme events, the accurate behaviour of models in terms of extremes needs to be validated thoroughly. We present a method for model validation in terms of climate extremes and an algorithm to detect regions in which extremes tend to occur at the same time. These methods are applied to data from different climate models and to observational data.
Erin L. McClymont, Michael J. Bentley, Dominic A. Hodgson, Charlotte L. Spencer-Jones, Thomas Wardley, Martin D. West, Ian W. Croudace, Sonja Berg, Darren R. Gröcke, Gerhard Kuhn, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Louise Sime, and Richard A. Phillips
Clim. Past, 18, 381–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, 2022
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Sea ice is important for our climate system and for the unique ecosystems it supports. We present a novel way to understand past Antarctic sea-ice ecosystems: using the regurgitated stomach contents of snow petrels, which nest above the ice sheet but feed in the sea ice. During a time when sea ice was more extensive than today (24 000–30 000 years ago), we show that snow petrel diet had varying contributions of fish and krill, which we interpret to show changing sea-ice distribution.
Thomas Frank, Henning Åkesson, Basile de Fleurian, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kerim H. Nisancioglu
The Cryosphere, 16, 581–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-581-2022, 2022
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The shape of a fjord can promote or inhibit glacier retreat in response to climate change. We conduct experiments with a synthetic setup under idealized conditions in a numerical model to study and quantify the processes involved. We find that friction between ice and fjord is the most important factor and that it is possible to directly link ice discharge and grounding line retreat to fjord topography in a quantitative way.
Daniel Balting, Simon Michel, Viorica Nagavciuc, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-47, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
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Vapor pressure deficit is a key component of vegetation dynamics, soil science, meteorology, and soil science. In this study, we reconstruct the variability of the vapor pressure deficit in the past and examine the changes in future scenarios using climate models. In this way, past, present and future changes of the vapor pressure deficit can be detected locally, regionally, and continentally with higher statistical significance.
Matthew Chadwick, Claire S. Allen, Louise C. Sime, Xavier Crosta, and Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand
Clim. Past, 18, 129–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-129-2022, 2022
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Algae preserved in marine sediments have allowed us to reconstruct how much winter sea ice was present around Antarctica during a past time period (130 000 years ago) when the climate was warmer than today. The patterns of sea-ice increase and decrease vary between different parts of the Southern Ocean. The Pacific sector has a largely stable sea-ice extent, whereas the amount of sea ice in the Atlantic sector is much more variable with bigger decreases and increases than other regions.
Stephan Krätschmer, Michèlle van der Does, Frank Lamy, Gerrit Lohmann, Christoph Völker, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 18, 67–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, 2022
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We use an atmospheric model coupled to an aerosol model to investigate the global mineral dust cycle with a focus on the Southern Hemisphere for warmer and colder climate states and compare our results to observational data. Our findings suggest that Australia is the predominant source of dust deposited over Antarctica during the last glacial maximum. In addition, we find that the southward transport of dust from all sources to Antarctica happens at lower altitudes in colder climates.
Léa Terray, Masa Kageyama, Emmanuelle Stoetzel, Eslem Ben Arous, Raphaël Cornette, and Pascale Braconnot
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-185, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-185, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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To reconstruct the paleoenvironmental and chronological context of archaeo/paleontological sites is a key step to understand the evolutionary history of past organisms. Paleoenvironmental proxies often show inconsistencies and age estimations can vary depending on the method used. We show the potential of paleoclimate simulations to address those discrepancies, illustrating the strong potential of our cross-disciplinary approach to refine the context of archaeo/paleontological sites.
Martin Wegmann, Yvan Orsolini, Antje Weisheimer, Bart van den Hurk, and Gerrit Lohmann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021, 2021
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Northern Hemisphere winter weather is influenced by the strength of westerly winds 30 km above the surface, the so-called polar vortex. Eurasian autumn snow cover is thought to modulate the polar vortex. So far, however, the modeled influence of snow on the polar vortex did not fit the observed influence. By analyzing a model experiment for the time span of 110 years, we could show that the causality of this impact is indeed sound and snow cover can weaken the polar vortex.
Kim H. Stadelmaier, Patrick Ludwig, Pascal Bertran, Pierre Antoine, Xiaoxu Shi, Gerrit Lohmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Clim. Past, 17, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, 2021
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We use regional climate simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum to reconstruct permafrost and to identify areas of thermal contraction cracking of the ground in western Europe. We find ground cracking, a precondition for the development of permafrost proxies, south of the probable permafrost border, implying that permafrost was not the limiting factor for proxy development. A good agreement with permafrost and climate proxy data is achieved when easterly winds are modelled more frequently.
Zixuan Han, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Nan Rosenbloom, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Jianbo Cheng, Qin Wen, and Natalie J. Burls
Clim. Past, 17, 2537–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, 2021
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Understanding the potential processes responsible for large-scale hydrological cycle changes in a warmer climate is of great importance. Our study implies that an imbalance in interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate cycling. Moreover, a robust westward shift in the Pacific Walker circulation can moisten the northern Indian Ocean.
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
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In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
Karin Kvale, David P. Keller, Wolfgang Koeve, Katrin J. Meissner, Christopher J. Somes, Wanxuan Yao, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7255–7285, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7255-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7255-2021, 2021
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We present a new model of biological marine silicate cycling for the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). This new model adds diatoms, which are a key aspect of the biological carbon pump, to an existing ecosystem model. Our modifications change how the model responds to warming, with net primary production declining more strongly than in previous versions. Diatoms in particular are simulated to decline with climate warming due to their high nutrient requirements.
Ingo Bethke, Yiguo Wang, François Counillon, Noel Keenlyside, Madlen Kimmritz, Filippa Fransner, Annette Samuelsen, Helene Langehaug, Lea Svendsen, Ping-Gin Chiu, Leilane Passos, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Alok Gupta, Jerry Tjiputra, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Julie Solsvik Vågane, Yuanchao Fan, and Tor Eldevik
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7073–7116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7073-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7073-2021, 2021
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The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It adds data assimilation capability to the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) and has contributed output to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) as part of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We describe the system and evaluate its baseline, reanalysis and prediction performance.
Maryam Ilyas, Douglas Nychka, Chris Brierley, and Serge Guillas
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7103–7121, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7103-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7103-2021, 2021
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Instrumental temperature records are fundamental to climate science. There are spatial gaps in the distribution of these measurements across the globe. This lack of spatial coverage introduces coverage error. In this research, a methodology is developed and used to quantify the coverage errors. It results in a data product that, for the first time, provides a full description of both the spatial coverage uncertainties along with the uncertainties in the modeling of these spatial gaps.
Rachel Diamond, Louise C. Sime, David Schroeder, and Maria-Vittoria Guarino
The Cryosphere, 15, 5099–5114, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021, 2021
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The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3) is the first coupled climate model to simulate an ice-free summer Arctic during the Last Interglacial (LIG), 127 000 years ago, and yields accurate Arctic surface temperatures. We investigate the causes and impacts of this extreme simulated ice loss and, in particular, the role of melt ponds.
Nele Lamping, Juliane Müller, Jens Hefter, Gesine Mollenhauer, Christian Haas, Xiaoxu Shi, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Gerrit Lohmann, and Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand
Clim. Past, 17, 2305–2326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2305-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2305-2021, 2021
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We analysed biomarker concentrations on surface sediment samples from the Antarctic continental margin. Highly branched isoprenoids and GDGTs are used for reconstructing recent sea-ice distribution patterns and ocean temperatures respectively. We compared our biomarker-based results with data obtained from satellite observations and estimated from a numerical model and find reasonable agreements. Further, we address caveats and provide recommendations for future investigations.
Laura Crick, Andrea Burke, William Hutchison, Mika Kohno, Kathryn A. Moore, Joel Savarino, Emily A. Doyle, Sue Mahony, Sepp Kipfstuhl, James W. B. Rae, Robert C. J. Steele, R. Stephen J. Sparks, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 17, 2119–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2119-2021, 2021
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The ~ 74 ka eruption of Toba was one of the largest eruptions of the last 100 ka. We have measured the sulfur isotopic composition for 11 Toba eruption candidates in two Antarctic ice cores. Sulfur isotopes allow us to distinguish between large eruptions that have erupted material into the stratosphere and smaller ones that reach lower altitudes. Using this we have identified the events most likely to be Toba and place the eruption on the transition into a cold period in the Northern Hemisphere.
Charles J. R. Williams, Alistair A. Sellar, Xin Ren, Alan M. Haywood, Peter Hopcroft, Stephen J. Hunter, William H. G. Roberts, Robin S. Smith, Emma J. Stone, Julia C. Tindall, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 17, 2139–2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021, 2021
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Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from a simulation of the mid-Pliocene (approximately 3 million years ago) using the latest version of the UK’s climate model. The simulation reproduces temperatures as expected and shows some improvement relative to previous versions of the same model. The simulation is, however, arguably too warm when compared to other models and available observations.
Saeid Bagheri Dastgerdi, Melanie Behrens, Jean-Louis Bonne, Maria Hörhold, Gerrit Lohmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 15, 4745–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, 2021
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In this study, for the first time, water vapour isotope measurements in Antarctica for all seasons of a year are performed. Local temperature is identified as the main driver of δ18O and δD variability. A similar slope of the temperature–δ18O relationship in vapour and surface snow points to the water vapour isotope content as a potential key driver. This dataset can be used as a new dataset to evaluate the capability of isotope-enhanced climate models.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Akira Oka, Takahito Mitsui, and Fuyuki Saito
Clim. Past, 17, 1919–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, 2021
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Glacial periods underwent climate shifts between warm states and cold states on a millennial timescale. Frequency of these climate shifts varied along time: it was shorter during mid-glacial period compared to early glacial period. Here, from climate simulations of early and mid-glacial periods with a comprehensive climate model, we show that the larger ice sheet in the mid-glacial compared to early glacial periods could contribute to the frequent climate shifts during the mid-glacial period.
Ellen Berntell, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, William Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Esther C. Brady
Clim. Past, 17, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, 2021
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The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3.2 Ma) is often considered an analogue for near-future climate projections, and model results from the PlioMIP2 ensemble show an increase of rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region compared to pre-industrial conditions. Though previous studies of future projections show a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, these results indicate a uniform rainfall increase over the Sahel in warm climates characterized by increased greenhouse gas forcing.
Xiaoxu Shi, Dirk Notz, Jiping Liu, Hu Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4891–4908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4891-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4891-2021, 2021
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The ice–ocean heat flux is one of the key elements controlling sea ice changes. It motivates our study, which aims to examine the responses of modeled climate to three ice–ocean heat flux parameterizations, including two old approaches that assume one-way heat transport and a new one describing a double-diffusive ice–ocean heat exchange. The results show pronounced differences in the modeled sea ice, ocean, and atmosphere states for the latter as compared to the former two parameterizations.
Jun Shao, Lowell D. Stott, Laurie Menviel, Andy Ridgwell, Malin Ödalen, and Mayhar Mohtadi
Clim. Past, 17, 1507–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1507-2021, 2021
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Planktic and shallow benthic foraminiferal stable carbon isotope
(δ13C) data show a rapid decline during the last deglaciation. This widespread signal was linked to respired carbon released from the deep ocean and its transport through the upper-ocean circulation. Using numerical simulations in which a stronger flux of respired carbon upwells and outcrops in the Southern Ocean, we find that the depleted δ13C signal is transmitted to the rest of the upper ocean through air–sea gas exchange.
Sarah E. Parker, Sandy P. Harrison, Laia Comas-Bru, Nikita Kaushal, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 1119–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, 2021
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Regional trends in the oxygen isotope (δ18O) composition of stalagmites reflect several climate processes. We compare stalagmite δ18O records from monsoon regions and model simulations to identify the causes of δ18O variability over the last 12 000 years, and between glacial and interglacial states. Precipitation changes explain the glacial–interglacial δ18O changes in all monsoon regions; Holocene trends are due to a combination of precipitation, atmospheric circulation and temperature changes.
Olivier Marti, Sébastien Nguyen, Pascale Braconnot, Sophie Valcke, Florian Lemarié, and Eric Blayo
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2959–2975, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2959-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2959-2021, 2021
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State-of-the-art Earth system models, like the ones used in CMIP6, suffer from temporal inconsistencies at the ocean–atmosphere interface. In this study, a mathematically consistent iterative Schwarz method is used as a reference. Its tremendous computational cost makes it unusable for production runs, but it allows us to evaluate the error made when using legacy coupling schemes. The impact on the climate at longer timescales of days to decades is not evaluated.
Pascale Braconnot, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Anne Cozic, Masa Kageyama, Adriana Sima, Olivier Marti, and Jean-Yves Peterschmitt
Clim. Past, 17, 1091–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, 2021
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We investigate how mid-Holocene dust reduction affects the Earth’s energetics from a suite of climate simulations. Our analyses confirm the peculiar role of the dust radiative effect over bright surfaces such as African deserts. We highlight a strong dependence on the dust pattern. The relative dust forcing between West Africa and the Middle East impacts the relative response of Indian and African monsoons and between the western tropical Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional circulation.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Paul Gierz, Christian B. Rodehacke, Shan Xu, Hu Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 2295–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2295-2021, 2021
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The surface mass balance scheme dEBM (diurnal Energy Balance Model) provides a novel, computationally inexpensive interface between the atmosphere and land ice for Earth system modeling. The dEBM is particularly suitable for Earth system modeling on multi-millennial timescales as it accounts for changes in the Earth's orbit and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration.
Pengfei Wang, Jinrong Jiang, Pengfei Lin, Mengrong Ding, Junlin Wei, Feng Zhang, Lian Zhao, Yiwen Li, Zipeng Yu, Weipeng Zheng, Yongqiang Yu, Xuebin Chi, and Hailong Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2781–2799, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2781-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2781-2021, 2021
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Global ocean general circulation models are a fundamental tool for oceanography research, ocean forecast, and climate change research. The increasing resolution will greatly improve simulations of the models, but it also demands much more computing resources. In this study, we have ported an ocean general circulation model to a heterogeneous computing system and have developed a 3–5 km model version. A 14-year integration has been conducted and the preliminary results have been evaluated.
Daniel F. Balting, Monica Ionita, Martin Wegmann, Gerhard Helle, Gerhard H. Schleser, Norel Rimbu, Mandy B. Freund, Ingo Heinrich, Diana Caldarescu, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 17, 1005–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1005-2021, 2021
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To extend climate information back in time, we investigate the climate sensitivity of a δ18O network from tree rings, consisting of 26 European sites and covering the last 400 years. Our results suggest that the δ18O variability is associated with large-scale anomaly patterns that resemble those observed for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We conclude that the investigation of large-scale climate signals far beyond instrumental records can be done with a δ18O network derived from tree rings.
Janica C. Bühler, Carla Roesch, Moritz Kirschner, Louise Sime, Max D. Holloway, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 17, 985–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, 2021
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We present three new isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium (850–1850 CE) and compare them to records from a global speleothem database. Offsets between the simulated and measured oxygen isotope ratios are fairly small. While modeled oxygen isotope ratios are more variable on decadal timescales, proxy records are more variable on (multi-)centennial timescales. This could be due to a lack of long-term variability in complex model simulations, but proxy biases cannot be excluded.
Alexander Koch, Chris Brierley, and Simon L. Lewis
Biogeosciences, 18, 2627–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2627-2021, 2021
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Estimates of large-scale tree planting and forest restoration as a carbon sequestration tool typically miss a crucial aspect: the Earth system response to the increased land carbon sink from new vegetation. We assess the impact of tropical forest restoration using an Earth system model under a scenario that limits warming to 2 °C. Almost two-thirds of the carbon impact of forest restoration is offset by negative carbon cycle feedbacks, suggesting a more modest benefit than in previous studies.
Nicholas King-Hei Yeung, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Andréa S. Taschetto, Tilo Ziehn, and Matthew Chamberlain
Clim. Past, 17, 869–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-869-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-869-2021, 2021
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The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is characterised by strong orbital forcing compared to the pre-industrial period (PI). This study compares the mean climate state of the LIG to the PI as simulated by the ACCESS-ESM1.5, with a focus on the southern hemispheric monsoons, which are shown to be consistently weakened. This is associated with cooler terrestrial conditions in austral summer due to decreased insolation, and greater pressure and subsidence over land from Hadley cell strengthening.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Rumi Ohgaito, Akitomo Yamamoto, Tomohiro Hajima, Ryouta O'ishi, Manabu Abe, Hiroaki Tatebe, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Michio Kawamiya
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1195–1217, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1195-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1195-2021, 2021
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Using the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model, selected time periods of the past were simulated. The ability to simulate the past is also an evaluation of the performance of the model in projecting global warming. Simulations for 21 000, 6000, and 127 000 years ago, and a simulation for 1000 years starting in 850 CE were simulated. The results showed that the model can generally describe past climate change.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Qiong Zhang, Ellen Berntell, Josefine Axelsson, Jie Chen, Zixuan Han, Wesley de Nooijer, Zhengyao Lu, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1147–1169, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1147-2021, 2021
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Paleoclimate modelling has long been regarded as a strong out-of-sample test bed of the climate models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. Here, we document the model experimental setups for the three past warm periods with EC-Earth3-LR and present the results on the large-scale features. The simulations demonstrate good performance of the model in capturing the climate response under different climate forcings.
Shannon A. Bengtson, Laurie C. Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Lise Missiaen, Carlye D. Peterson, Lorraine E. Lisiecki, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 17, 507–528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-507-2021, 2021
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The last interglacial was a warm period that may provide insights into future climates. Here, we compile and analyse stable carbon isotope data from the ocean during the last interglacial and compare it to the Holocene. The data show that Atlantic Ocean circulation was similar during the last interglacial and the Holocene. We also establish a difference in the mean oceanic carbon isotopic ratio between these periods, which was most likely caused by burial and weathering carbon fluxes.
Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Odd Helge Otterå, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther Brady, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Julia E. Weiffenbach, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Julia C. Tindall, Charles Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Wing-Le Chan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 17, 529–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, 2021
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important topic in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project. Previous studies have suggested a much stronger AMOC during the Pliocene than today. However, our current multi-model intercomparison shows large model spreads and model–data discrepancies, which can not support the previous hypothesis. Our study shows good consistency with future projections of the AMOC.
Dan Wang, Paolo Scussolini, and Shiqiang Du
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 743–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-743-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-743-2021, 2021
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Flood protection level (FPL) is vital for risk analysis and management but scarce in realty particularly for developing countries. This paper develops a policy-based FPL dataset for China and validates it using local FPL designs. The FPLs are much higher than that in a global database, suggesting Chinese flood risk could be lower with the policy-required FPLs. Moreover, the FPLs are lower for western China and vulnerable people, implying a spatial and social divergence of the FPLs.
Andreas Plach, Bo M. Vinther, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Sindhu Vudayagiri, and Thomas Blunier
Clim. Past, 17, 317–330, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-317-2021, 2021
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In light of recent large-scale melting of the Greenland ice sheet
(GrIS), e.g., in the summer of 2012 several days with surface melt
on the entire ice sheet (including elevations above 3000 m), we use
computer simulations to estimate the amount of melt during a
warmer-than-present period of the past. Our simulations show more
extensive melt than today. This is important for the interpretation of
ice cores which are used to reconstruct the evolution of the ice sheet
and the climate.
David K. Hutchinson, Helen K. Coxall, Daniel J. Lunt, Margret Steinthorsdottir, Agatha M. de Boer, Michiel Baatsen, Anna von der Heydt, Matthew Huber, Alan T. Kennedy-Asser, Lutz Kunzmann, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Caroline H. Lear, Karolin Moraweck, Paul N. Pearson, Emanuela Piga, Matthew J. Pound, Ulrich Salzmann, Howie D. Scher, Willem P. Sijp, Kasia K. Śliwińska, Paul A. Wilson, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 269–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-269-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-269-2021, 2021
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The Eocene–Oligocene transition was a major climate cooling event from a largely ice-free world to the first major glaciation of Antarctica, approximately 34 million years ago. This paper reviews observed changes in temperature, CO2 and ice sheets from marine and land-based records at this time. We present a new model–data comparison of this transition and find that CO2-forced cooling provides the best explanation of the observed global temperature changes.
Daniel J. Lunt, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, David K. Hutchinson, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Polina Morozova, Igor Niezgodzki, Sebastian Steinig, Zhongshi Zhang, Jiang Zhu, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Eleni Anagnostou, Agatha M. de Boer, Helen K. Coxall, Yannick Donnadieu, Gavin Foster, Gordon N. Inglis, Gregor Knorr, Petra M. Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Gerrit Lohmann, Christopher J. Poulsen, Pierre Sepulchre, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny M. Volodin, Tom Dunkley Jones, Christopher J. Hollis, Matthew Huber, and Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 17, 203–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, 2021
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This paper presents the first modelling results from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP), in which we focus on the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO, 50 million years ago). We show that, in contrast to previous work, at least three models (CESM, GFDL, and NorESM) produce climate states that are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature and polar amplification, and they achieve this at a CO2 concentration that is consistent with the CO2 proxy record.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Akira Oka
Clim. Past, 17, 95–110, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-95-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-95-2021, 2021
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We perform simulations of Marine Isotope Stage 3 and 5a with an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to explore the effect of the southward expansion of mid-glacial ice sheets on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and climate. We find that the southward expansion of the mid-glacial ice sheet causes a surface cooling over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, but it exerts a small impact on the AMOC due to the competing effects of surface wind and surface cooling.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
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The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Ryouta O'ishi, Wing-Le Chan, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Rumi Ohgaito, and Masakazu Yoshimori
Clim. Past, 17, 21–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-21-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-21-2021, 2021
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The last interglacial is known as the warmest period in the recent glacial–interglacial cycle. We carry out a last interglacial experiment using three versions of general circulation models to reproduce the warm climate indicated by geological evidence. Our result clearly shows that vegetation change in the last interglacial is a necessary factor to predict a strong warming in northern high latitudes, which is indicated by geological evidence.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, Paul J. Valdes, and Julia C. Tindall
Clim. Past, 16, 2485–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, 2020
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1195–1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, 2020
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With the development of computer capacities, simpler models like energy balance models have not disappeared, and a stronger emphasis has been given to the concept of a hierarchy of models. The global temperature is calculated by the radiation budget through the incoming energy from the Sun and the outgoing energy from the Earth. The argument that the temperature can be calculated by a simple radiation budget is revisited, and it is found that the effective heat capacity matters.
Maria-Elena Vorrath, Juliane Müller, Lorena Rebolledo, Paola Cárdenas, Xiaoxu Shi, Oliver Esper, Thomas Opel, Walter Geibert, Práxedes Muñoz, Christian Haas, Gerhard Kuhn, Carina B. Lange, Gerrit Lohmann, and Gesine Mollenhauer
Clim. Past, 16, 2459–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2459-2020, 2020
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We tested the applicability of the organic biomarker IPSO25 for sea ice reconstructions in the industrial era at the western Antarctic Peninsula. We successfully evaluated our data with satellite sea ice observations. The comparison with marine and ice core records revealed that sea ice interpretations must consider climatic and sea ice dynamics. Sea ice biomarker production is mainly influenced by the Southern Annular Mode, while the El Niño–Southern Oscillation seems to have a minor impact.
Øyvind Seland, Mats Bentsen, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Toniazzo, Ada Gjermundsen, Lise Seland Graff, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Alok Kumar Gupta, Yan-Chun He, Alf Kirkevåg, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Ingo Bethke, Yuanchao Fan, Jan Griesfeller, Alf Grini, Chuncheng Guo, Mehmet Ilicak, Inger Helene Hafsahl Karset, Oskar Landgren, Johan Liakka, Kine Onsum Moseid, Aleksi Nummelin, Clemens Spensberger, Hui Tang, Zhongshi Zhang, Christoph Heinze, Trond Iversen, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6165–6200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, 2020
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The second version of the coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) is presented and evaluated. The temperature and precipitation patterns has improved compared to NorESM1. The model reaches present-day warming levels to within 0.2 °C of observed temperature but with a delayed warming during the late 20th century. Under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the warming in the period of 2090–2099 compared to 1850–1879 reaches 1.3, 2.2, 3.1, and 3.9 K.
Fuyuki Saito, Takashi Obase, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5875–5896, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5875-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5875-2020, 2020
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The present study introduces the rational function-based constrained interpolation profile (RCIP) method for use in 1 d dating computations in ice sheets and demonstrates the performance of the scheme. Comparisons are examined among the RCIP schemes and the first- and second-order upwind schemes. The results show that, in particular, the RCIP scheme preserves the pattern of input histories, in terms of the profile of internal annual layer thickness, better than the other schemes.
Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi, Frank Wilhelms, Eliza Cook, Siwan M. Davies, Giulia Sinnl, Mathias Skov Jensen, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Anders Svensson, Bo M. Vinther, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Gwydion Jones, Nanna B. Karlsson, Sergio Henrique Faria, Vasileios Gkinis, Helle Astrid Kjær, Tobias Erhardt, Sarah M. P. Berben, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Iben Koldtoft, and Sune Olander Rasmussen
Clim. Past, 16, 2359–2380, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2359-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2359-2020, 2020
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We present a first chronology for the East Greenland Ice-core Project (EGRIP) over the Holocene and last glacial termination. After field measurements and processing of the ice-core data, the GICC05 timescale is transferred from the NGRIP core to the EGRIP core by means of matching volcanic events and common patterns (381 match points) in the ECM and DEP records. The new timescale is named GICC05-EGRIP-1 and extends back to around 15 kyr b2k.
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020
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The simulations for the past climate can inform us about the performance of climate models in different climate scenarios. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), when the CO2 level was comparable to today. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in the model simulations and imply that we must be careful when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
Christian Stepanek, Eric Samakinwa, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 16, 2275–2323, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2275-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2275-2020, 2020
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Future climate is expected to be warmer than today. We study climate based on simulations of the mid-Pliocene (about 3 million years ago), which was a time of elevated temperatures, and discuss implications for the future. Our results are provided towards a comparison to both proxy evidence and output of other climate models. We simulate a mid-Pliocene climate that is both warmer and wetter than today. Some climate characteristics can be more directly transferred to the near future than others.
Florian Fuhrmann, Benedikt Diensberg, Xun Gong, Gerrit Lohmann, and Frank Sirocko
Clim. Past, 16, 2221–2238, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2221-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2221-2020, 2020
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Proxy data of sediment cores, speleothem, pollen and isotope data were used to reconstruct past aridity of eight regions of the world over the last 60 000 years. These regions show humid conditions during the early MIS3 (60 to 45 ka). Also the early Holocene (14 to 6 ka) was humid throughout the regions. In contrast, MIS2 and the LGM were arid in Northern Nemisphere records. On- and offsets of aridity/humidity differ between the regions. All this is in good agreement with recent model results.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
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We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Harry J. Dowsett, Aisling M. Dolan, Kevin M. Foley, Stephen J. Hunter, Daniel J. Hill, Wing-Le Chan, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Youichi Kamae, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Esther C. Brady, Anna S. von der Heydt, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 16, 2095–2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, 2020
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The large-scale features of middle Pliocene climate from the 16 models of PlioMIP Phase 2 are presented. The PlioMIP2 ensemble average was ~ 3.2 °C warmer and experienced ~ 7 % more precipitation than the pre-industrial era, although there are large regional variations. PlioMIP2 broadly agrees with a new proxy dataset of Pliocene sea surface temperatures. Combining PlioMIP2 and proxy data suggests that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would increase globally averaged temperature by 2.6–4.8 °C.
Maartje Sanne Kuilman, Qiong Zhang, Ming Cai, and Qin Wen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12409–12430, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12409-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12409-2020, 2020
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In this study, we quantify the temperature changes in the middle atmosphere due to different feedback processes using the climate feedback response analysis method. We have found that the change due to the increase in CO2 alone cools the middle atmosphere. The combined effect of the different feedbacks causes the atmosphere to cool less. The ozone feedback is the most important feedback process, while the cloud, water vapour and albedo feedback play only a minor role.
Xinquan Zhou, Stéphanie Duchamp-Alphonse, Masa Kageyama, Franck Bassinot, Luc Beaufort, and Christophe Colin
Clim. Past, 16, 1969–1986, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1969-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1969-2020, 2020
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We provide a high-resolution primary productivity (PP) record of the northeastern Bay of Bengal over the last 26 000 years. Combined with climate model outputs, we show that PP over the glacial period is controlled by river input nutrients under low sea level conditions and after the Last Glacial Maximum is controlled by upper seawater salinity stratification related to monsoon precipitation. During the deglaciation the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is the main forcing factor.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
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This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
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The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Jesper Sjolte, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Raimund Muscheler, Christophe Sturm, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 16, 1737–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, 2020
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In this study we investigate seasonal climate reconstructions produced by matching climate model output to ice core and tree-ring data, and we evaluate the model–data reconstructions against meteorological observations. The reconstructions capture the main patterns of variability in sea level pressure and temperature in summer and winter. The performance of the reconstructions depends on seasonal climate variability itself, and definitions of seasons can be optimized to capture this variability.
Martin Renoult, James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Navjit Sagoo, Clare Flynn, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Qiong Zhang, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 16, 1715–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, 2020
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Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent years. In particular, studies of the warm mid-Pliocene and cold Last Glacial Maximum showed relationships between the tropical surface temperature of the Earth and its sensitivity to an abrupt doubling of atmospheric CO2. In this study, we develop a new and promising statistical method and obtain similar results as previously observed, wherein the sensitivity does not seem to exceed extreme values.
Nadine Mengis, David P. Keller, Andrew H. MacDougall, Michael Eby, Nesha Wright, Katrin J. Meissner, Andreas Oschlies, Andreas Schmittner, Alexander J. MacIsaac, H. Damon Matthews, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4183–4204, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4183-2020, 2020
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In this paper, we evaluate the newest version of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM 2.10). Combining recent model developments as a joint effort, this version is to be used in the next phase of model intercomparison and climate change studies. The UVic ESCM 2.10 is capable of reproducing changes in historical temperature and carbon fluxes well. Additionally, the model is able to reproduce the three-dimensional distribution of many ocean tracers.
Simon Opie, Richard G. Taylor, Chris M. Brierley, Mohammad Shamsudduha, and Mark O. Cuthbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 775–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, 2020
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Knowledge of the relationship between climate and groundwater is limited and typically undermined by the scale, duration and accessibility of observations. Using monthly satellite measurements newly compiled over 14 years in the tropics and sub-tropics, we show that the imprint of precipitation history on groundwater, i.e. hydraulic memory, is longer in drylands than humid environments with important implications for the understanding and management of groundwater resources under climate change.
Erin L. McClymont, Heather L. Ford, Sze Ling Ho, Julia C. Tindall, Alan M. Haywood, Montserrat Alonso-Garcia, Ian Bailey, Melissa A. Berke, Kate Littler, Molly O. Patterson, Benjamin Petrick, Francien Peterse, A. Christina Ravelo, Bjørg Risebrobakken, Stijn De Schepper, George E. A. Swann, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Jessica E. Tierney, Carolien van der Weijst, Sarah White, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Anna S. von der Heydt, Stephen Hunter, Xiangyi Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 16, 1599–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, 2020
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We examine the sea-surface temperature response to an interval of climate ~ 3.2 million years ago, when CO2 concentrations were similar to today and the near future. Our geological data and climate models show that global mean sea-surface temperatures were 2.3 to 3.2 ºC warmer than pre-industrial climate, that the mid-latitudes and high latitudes warmed more than the tropics, and that the warming was particularly enhanced in the North Atlantic Ocean.
Eric Samakinwa, Christian Stepanek, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 16, 1643–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1643-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1643-2020, 2020
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Boundary conditions, forcing, and methodology for the two phases of PlioMIP differ considerably. We compare results from PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 simulations. We also carry out sensitivity experiments to infer the relative contribution of different boundary conditions to mid-Pliocene warmth. Our results show dominant effects of mid-Pliocene geography on the climate state and also that prescribing orbital forcing for different time slices within the mid-Pliocene could lead to pronounced variations.
Hiroyuki Tsujino, L. Shogo Urakawa, Stephen M. Griffies, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Alistair J. Adcroft, Arthur E. Amaral, Thomas Arsouze, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Claus W. Böning, Alexandra Bozec, Eric P. Chassignet, Sergey Danilov, Raphael Dussin, Eleftheria Exarchou, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Chuncheng Guo, Mehmet Ilicak, Doroteaciro Iovino, Who M. Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, Vladimir Lapin, Yiwen Li, Pengfei Lin, Keith Lindsay, Hailong Liu, Matthew C. Long, Yoshiki Komuro, Simon J. Marsland, Simona Masina, Aleksi Nummelin, Jan Klaus Rieck, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Markus Scheinert, Valentina Sicardi, Dmitry Sidorenko, Tatsuo Suzuki, Hiroaki Tatebe, Qiang Wang, Stephen G. Yeager, and Zipeng Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3643–3708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3643-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3643-2020, 2020
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The OMIP-2 framework for global ocean–sea-ice model simulations is assessed by comparing multi-model means from 11 CMIP6-class global ocean–sea-ice models calculated separately for the OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations. Many features are very similar between OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations, and yet key improvements in transitioning from OMIP-1 to OMIP-2 are also identified. Thus, the present assessment justifies that future ocean–sea-ice model development and analysis studies use the OMIP-2 framework.
Anders Svensson, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Thomas Blunier, Sune O. Rasmussen, Bo M. Vinther, Paul Vallelonga, Emilie Capron, Vasileios Gkinis, Eliza Cook, Helle Astrid Kjær, Raimund Muscheler, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Frank Wilhelms, Thomas F. Stocker, Hubertus Fischer, Florian Adolphi, Tobias Erhardt, Michael Sigl, Amaelle Landais, Frédéric Parrenin, Christo Buizert, Joseph R. McConnell, Mirko Severi, Robert Mulvaney, and Matthias Bigler
Clim. Past, 16, 1565–1580, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1565-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1565-2020, 2020
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We identify signatures of large bipolar volcanic eruptions in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during the last glacial period, which allows for a precise temporal alignment of the ice cores. Thereby the exact timing of unexplained, abrupt climatic changes occurring during the last glacial period can be determined in a global context. The study thus provides a step towards a full understanding of elements of the climate system that may also play an important role in the future.
Wing-Le Chan and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1523–1545, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1523-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1523-2020, 2020
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We carry out several modelling experiments to investigate the climate of the mid-Piacenzian warm period (~ 3.205 Ma) when CO2 levels were similar to those of present day. The global surface air temperature is 3.1 °C higher compared to pre-industrial ones. Like previous experiments, the scale of warming suggested by proxy sea surface temperature (SST) data in the northern North Atlantic is not replicated. However, tropical Pacific SST shows good agreement with more recently published proxy data.
Charles J. R. Williams, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Emilie Capron, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Joy S. Singarayer, Louise C. Sime, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 16, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, 2020
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Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from two simulations using the latest version of the UK's climate model, the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) and Last Interglacial (127 000 years ago). The simulations reproduce temperatures consistent with the pattern of incoming radiation. Model–data comparisons indicate that some regions (and some seasons) produce better matches to the data than others.
Paul Gierz, Lars Ackermann, Christian B. Rodehacke, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Christian Stepanek, Dirk Barbi, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-159, 2020
Publication in GMD not foreseen
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In this study, we describe the SCOPE coupler, which is used connect the ECHAM6/JSBACH/FESOM1.4 climate model to the PISM 1.1.4 ice sheet model. This system is used to simulate IPCC scenarios projected for the future, and several warm periods in the past; the mid Holocene and the Last Interglacial. Our new model allows us to simulate the ice sheet’s response to changes in the climatic conditions, providing a new avenue of investigation over the previous models, which keep the cryosphere fixed.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
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This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Benjamin D. Stocker, Sebastian Lienert, Jurek Müller, Hubertus Fischer, Jochen Schmitt, I. Colin Prentice, Bette Otto-Bliesner, and Zhengyu Liu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3511–3543, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, 2020
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Results of the first globally resolved simulations of terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (N) cycling and N2O emissions over the past 21 000 years are compared with reconstructed N2O emissions. Modelled and reconstructed emissions increased strongly during past abrupt warming events. This evidence appears consistent with a dynamic response of biological N fixation to increasing N demand by ecosystems, thereby reducing N limitation of plant productivity and supporting a land sink for atmospheric CO2.
Pierre Sepulchre, Arnaud Caubel, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Pascale Braconnot, Patrick Brockmann, Anne Cozic, Yannick Donnadieu, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Victor Estella-Perez, Christian Ethé, Frédéric Fluteau, Marie-Alice Foujols, Guillaume Gastineau, Josefine Ghattas, Didier Hauglustaine, Frédéric Hourdin, Masa Kageyama, Myriam Khodri, Olivier Marti, Yann Meurdesoif, Juliette Mignot, Anta-Clarisse Sarr, Jérôme Servonnat, Didier Swingedouw, Sophie Szopa, and Delphine Tardif
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3011–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3011-2020, 2020
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Our paper describes IPSL-CM5A2, an Earth system model that can be integrated for long (several thousands of years) climate simulations. We describe the technical aspects, assess the model computing performance and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the model, by comparing pre-industrial and historical runs to the previous-generation model simulations and to observations. We also present a Cretaceous simulation as a case study to show how the model simulates deep-time paleoclimates.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
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The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Eric Pohl, Christophe Grenier, Mathieu Vrac, and Masa Kageyama
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2839, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2817-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2817-2020, 2020
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Existing approaches to quantify the emergence of climate change require several user choices that make these approaches less objective. We present an approach that uses a minimum number of choices and showcase its application in the extremely sensitive, permafrost-dominated region of eastern Siberia. Designed as a Python toolbox, it allows for incorporating climate model, reanalysis, and in situ data to make use of numerous existing data sources and reduce uncertainties in obtained estimates.
Martin Wegmann, Marco Rohrer, María Santolaria-Otín, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 509–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020, 2020
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Predicting the climate of the upcoming season is of big societal benefit, but finding out which component of the climate system can act as a predictor is difficult. In this study, we focus on Eurasian snow cover as such a component and show that knowing the snow cover in November is very helpful in predicting the state of winter over Europe. However, this mechanism was questioned in the past. Using snow data that go back 150 years into the past, we are now very confident in this relationship.
Kira Rehfeld, Raphaël Hébert, Juan M. Lora, Marcus Lofverstrom, and Chris M. Brierley
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 447–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020, 2020
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Under continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, it is likely that global mean surface temperature will continue to increase. Little is known about changes in climate variability. We analyze surface climate variability and compare it to mean change in colder- and warmer-than-present climate model simulations. In most locations, but not on subtropical land, simulated temperature variability up to decadal timescales decreases with mean temperature, and precipitation variability increases.
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
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Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Zhongshi Zhang, Qing Yan, Ran Zhang, Florence Colleoni, Gilles Ramstein, Gaowen Dai, Martin Jakobsson, Matt O'Regan, Stefan Liess, Denis-Didier Rousseau, Naiqing Wu, Elizabeth J. Farmer, Camille Contoux, Chuncheng Guo, Ning Tan, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-38, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Whether an ice sheet once grew over Northeast Siberia-Beringia has been debated for decades. By comparing climate modelling with paleoclimate and glacial records from around the North Pacific, this study shows that the Laurentide-Eurasia-only ice sheet configuration fails in explaining these records, while a scenario involving the ice sheet over Northeast Siberia-Beringia succeeds. It highlights the complexity in glacial climates and urges new investigations across Northeast Siberia-Beringia.
Aurélie Marcelle Renée Aubry, Stijn De Schepper, and Anne de Vernal
J. Micropalaeontol., 39, 41–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/jm-39-41-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/jm-39-41-2020, 2020
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We used organic-walled microfossils to better define the Plio–Pleistocene transition (2.56 Ma) that is associated with the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation. The disappearance of species around 2.75 Ma reflects an ecological response accompanying the Greenland ice sheet growth.
A strong regionalism marks the Labrador Sea and suggests cooler conditions than elsewhere in the North Atlantic, although our zone boundaries are contemporaneous with the eastern North Atlantic.
Silje Smith-Johnsen, Basile de Fleurian, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, and Kerim Nisancioglu
The Cryosphere, 14, 841–854, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-841-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-841-2020, 2020
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The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) drains a large part of Greenland and displays fast flow far inland. However, the flow pattern is not well represented in ice sheet models. The fast flow has been explained by abnormally high geothermal heat flux. The heat melts the base of the ice sheet and the water produced may lubricate the bed and induce fast flow. By including high geothermal heat flux and a hydrology model, we successfully reproduce NEGIS flow pattern in an ice sheet model.
Markus M. Frey, Sarah J. Norris, Ian M. Brooks, Philip S. Anderson, Kouichi Nishimura, Xin Yang, Anna E. Jones, Michelle G. Nerentorp Mastromonaco, David H. Jones, and Eric W. Wolff
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2549–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2549-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2549-2020, 2020
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A winter sea ice expedition to Antarctica provided the first direct observations of sea salt aerosol (SSA) production during snow storms above sea ice, thereby validating a model hypothesis to account for winter time SSA maxima in Antarctica not explained otherwise. Defining SSA sources is important given the critical roles that aerosol plays for climate, for air quality and as a potential ice core proxy for sea ice conditions in the past.
Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-José Gaillard, Benjamin D. Stocker, Marc Vander Linden, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Oliver Boles, Pascale Braconnot, Andria Dawson, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kastner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Erick Robinson, Nicki J. Whitehouse, Marco Madella, and Kathleen D. Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, 2020
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The Past Global Changes LandCover6k initiative will use archaeological records to refine scenarios of land use and land cover change through the Holocene to reduce the uncertainties about the impacts of human-induced changes before widespread industrialization. We describe how archaeological data are used to map land use change and how the maps can be evaluated using independent palaeoenvironmental data. We propose simulations to test land use and land cover change impacts on past climates.
Jianjun Zou, Xuefa Shi, Aimei Zhu, Selvaraj Kandasamy, Xun Gong, Lester Lembke-Jene, Min-Te Chen, Yonghua Wu, Shulan Ge, Yanguang Liu, Xinru Xue, Gerrit Lohmann, and Ralf Tiedemann
Clim. Past, 16, 387–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-387-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-387-2020, 2020
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Large-scale reorganization of global ocean circulation has been documented in a variety of marine archives, including the enhanced North Pacific Intermediate Water NPIW. Our data support both the model- and data-based ideas that the enhanced NPIW mainly developed during cold spells, while an expansion of oxygen-poor zones occurred at warming intervals (Bölling-Alleröd).
Xingxing Liu, Youbin Sun, Jef Vandenberghe, Peng Cheng, Xu Zhang, Evan J. Gowan, Gerrit Lohmann, and Zhisheng An
Clim. Past, 16, 315–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-315-2020, 2020
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The East Asian summer monsoon and winter monsoon are anticorrelated on a centennial timescale during 16–1 ka. The centennial monsoon variability is connected to changes of both solar activity and North Atlantic cooling events during the Early Holocene. Then, North Atlantic cooling became the major forcing of events during the Late Holocene. This work presents the great challenge and potential to understand the response of the monsoon system to global climate changes in the past and the future.
Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Zhongshi Zhang, Odd Helge Otterå, and Ran Zhang
Clim. Past, 16, 183–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-183-2020, 2020
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Here we report the PlioMIP2 simulations by two versions of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) with updated boundary conditions derived from Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping version 4. The two NorESM versions both produce warmer and wetter Pliocene climate with deeper and stronger Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Compared to PlioMIP1, PlioMIP2 simulates lower Pliocene warming with NorESM-L, likely due to the closure of seaways at northern high latitudes.
Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, David Schroeder, Grenville M. S. Lister, and Rosalyn Hatcher
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 139–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-139-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-139-2020, 2020
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When the same weather or climate simulation is run on different high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, model outputs may not be identical for a given initial condition. Here, we investigate the behaviour of the Preindustrial simulation prepared by the UK Met Office for the forthcoming CMIP6 under different computing environments. Discrepancies between the means of key climate variables were analysed at different timescales, from decadal to centennial.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
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We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell N. Drysdale, Philip L. Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3649–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, 2019
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As part of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). This design includes time-varying changes in orbital forcing, greenhouse gas concentrations, continental ice sheets as well as freshwater input from the disintegration of continental ice sheets. Key paleo-records for model-data comparison are also included.
Andreas Plach, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Petra M. Langebroek, Andreas Born, and Sébastien Le clec'h
The Cryosphere, 13, 2133–2148, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2133-2019, 2019
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Meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) rises sea level and knowing how the GrIS behaved in the past will help to become better in predicting its future. Here, the evolution of the past GrIS is shown to be dominated by how much ice melts (a result of the prevailing climate) rather than how ice flow is represented in the simulations. Therefore, it is very important to know past climates accurately, in order to be able to simulate the evolution of the GrIS and its contribution to sea level.
Hiroaki Tatebe, Tomoo Ogura, Tomoko Nitta, Yoshiki Komuro, Koji Ogochi, Toshihiko Takemura, Kengo Sudo, Miho Sekiguchi, Manabu Abe, Fuyuki Saito, Minoru Chikira, Shingo Watanabe, Masato Mori, Nagio Hirota, Yoshio Kawatani, Takashi Mochizuki, Kei Yoshimura, Kumiko Takata, Ryouta O'ishi, Dai Yamazaki, Tatsuo Suzuki, Masao Kurogi, Takahito Kataoka, Masahiro Watanabe, and Masahide Kimoto
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2727–2765, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019, 2019
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For a deeper understanding of a wide range of climate science issues, the latest version of the Japanese climate model, called MIROC6, was developed. The climate model represents observed mean climate and climate variations well, for example tropical precipitation, the midlatitude westerlies, and the East Asian monsoon, which influence human activity all over the world. The improved climate simulations could add reliability to climate predictions under global warming.
Xin Yang, Markus M. Frey, Rachael H. Rhodes, Sarah J. Norris, Ian M. Brooks, Philip S. Anderson, Kouichi Nishimura, Anna E. Jones, and Eric W. Wolff
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8407–8424, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8407-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8407-2019, 2019
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This is a comprehensive model–data comparison aiming to evaluate the proposed mechanism of sea salt aerosol (SSA) production from blowing snow on sea ice. Some key parameters such as snow salinity and blowing-snow size distribution were constrained by data collected in the Weddell Sea. The good agreement between modelled SSA and the cruise data strongly indicates that sea ice surface is a large SSA source in polar regions, a process which has not been considered in current climate models.
Yating Lin, Gilles Ramstein, Haibin Wu, Raj Rani, Pascale Braconnot, Masa Kageyama, Qin Li, Yunli Luo, Ran Zhang, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past, 15, 1223–1249, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1223-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1223-2019, 2019
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The mid-Holocene has been an excellent target for comparing models and data. This work shows that, over China, all the ocean–atmosphere general circulation models involved in PMIP3 show a very large discrepancy with pollen data reconstruction when comparing annual and seasonal temperature. It demonstrates that to reconcile models and data and to capture the signature of seasonal thermal response, it is necessary to integrate non-linear processes, particularly those related to vegetation changes.
Sébastien Le clec'h, Aurélien Quiquet, Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, and Catherine Ritz
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2481–2499, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2481-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2481-2019, 2019
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To provide reliable projections of the ice-sheet contribution to future sea-level rise, ice sheet models must be able to simulate the observed ice sheet present-day state. Using a low computational iterative minimisation procedure, based on the adjustment of the basal drag coefficient, we rapidly minimise the errors between the simulated and the observed Greenland ice thickness and ice velocity, and we succeed in stabilising the simulated Greenland ice sheet state under present-day conditions.
Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Mats Bentsen, Ingo Bethke, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 15, 1133–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1133-2019, 2019
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We present an equilibrium simulation of the climate of Marine Isotope Stage 3, with an IPCC-class model with a relatively high model resolution and a long integration. The simulated climate resembles a warm interstadial state, as indicated by reconstructions of Greenland temperature, sea ice extent, and AMOC. Sensitivity experiments to changes in atmospheric CO2 levels and ice sheet size show that the model is in a relatively stable climate state without multiple equilibria.
Lennert B. Stap, Peter Köhler, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, 2019
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Processes causing the same global-average radiative forcing might lead to different global temperature changes. We expand the theoretical framework by which we calculate paleoclimate sensitivity with an efficacy factor. Applying the revised approach to radiative forcing caused by CO2 and land ice albedo perturbations, inferred from data of the past 800 000 years, gives a new paleo-based estimate of climate sensitivity.
Pascale Braconnot, Dan Zhu, Olivier Marti, and Jérôme Servonnat
Clim. Past, 15, 997–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, 2019
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This study discusses a simulation of the last 6000 years realized with a climate model in which the vegetation and carbon cycle are fully interactive. The long-term southward shift in Northern Hemisphere tree line and Afro-Asian monsoon rain are reproduced. The results show substantial change in tree composition with time over Eurasia and the role of trace gases in the recent past. They highlight the limitations due to model setup and multiple preindustrial vegetation states.
Akitomo Yamamoto, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Rumi Ohgaito, Akinori Ito, and Akira Oka
Clim. Past, 15, 981–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-981-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-981-2019, 2019
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Proxy records of glacial oxygen change provide constraints on the contribution of the biological pump to glacial CO2 decrease. Here, we report our numerical simulation which successfully reproduces records of glacial oxygen changes and shows the significance of iron supply from glaciogenic dust. Our model simulations clarify that the enhanced efficiency of the biological pump is responsible for glacial CO2 decline of more than 30 ppm and approximately half of deep-ocean deoxygenation.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
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We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Tobias Erhardt, Emilie Capron, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Simon Schüpbach, Matthias Bigler, Florian Adolphi, and Hubertus Fischer
Clim. Past, 15, 811–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-811-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-811-2019, 2019
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The cause of the rapid warming events documented in proxy records across the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial has been a long-standing puzzle in paleo-climate research. Here, we use high-resolution ice-core data from to cores in Greenland to investigate the progression during the onset of these events on multi-annual timescales to test their plausible triggers. We show that atmospheric circulation changes preceded the warming in Greenland and the collapse of the sea ice by a decade.
Monica Ionita, Klaus Grosfeld, Patrick Scholz, Renate Treffeisen, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019, 2019
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Based on a simple statistical model we show that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the September sea ice extent and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic.
Karin F. Kvale, Katherine E. Turner, Angela Landolfi, and Katrin J. Meissner
Biogeosciences, 16, 1019–1034, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1019-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1019-2019, 2019
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Drivers motivating the evolution of calcifying phytoplankton are poorly understood. We explore differences in global ocean chemistry with and without calcifiers during rapid climate changes. We find the presence of phytoplankton calcifiers stabilizes the volume of low oxygen regions and consequently stabilizes the concentration of nitrate, which is an important nutrient required for photosynthesis. By stabilizing nitrate concentrations, calcifiers improve their growth conditions.
Evan J. Gowan, Lu Niu, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-375-2019, 2019
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The speed of ice sheet flow is largely controlled by the strength of the ice–bed interface. We present three datasets on the geological properties of regions in North America, Greenland and Iceland that were covered by Quaternary ice sheets. These include the grain size of glacial sediments, the continuity of sediment cover and bedrock geology. Simple ice modelling experiments show that altering the basal strength of the ice sheet on the basis of these datasets impacts ice thickness.
Charlotta Högberg, Stefan Lossow, Farahnaz Khosrawi, Ralf Bauer, Kaley A. Walker, Patrick Eriksson, Donal P. Murtagh, Gabriele P. Stiller, Jörg Steinwagner, and Qiong Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2497–2526, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2497-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2497-2019, 2019
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Five δD (H2O) data sets obtained from satellite observations have been evaluated using profile-to-profile and climatological comparisons. The focus is on stratospheric altitudes, but results from the upper troposphere to the lower mesosphere are also provided. There are clear quantitative differences in the δD ratio in key areas of scientific interest, resulting in difficulties drawing robust conclusions on atmospheric processes affecting the water vapour budget and distribution.
Jianqiu Zheng, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, and Ming Cai
Clim. Past, 15, 291–305, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-291-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-291-2019, 2019
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This paper addresses two important issues with the EC-Earth Pliocene simulation, including the following: (1) quantification of albedo and insulation effects of Arctic sea ice on interface heat exchange and (2) an explanation as to why Arctic amplification in surface air temperature (SST) peaks in winter while there is maximum SST warming in summer. These issues provide potential implications for researching Arctic amplification and climate change.
Sébastien Le clec'h, Sylvie Charbit, Aurélien Quiquet, Xavier Fettweis, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, Coraline Wyard, and Catherine Ritz
The Cryosphere, 13, 373–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, 2019
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Quantifying the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level rise in response to atmospheric changes is important but remains challenging. For the first time a full representation of the feedbacks between a GrIS model and a regional atmospheric model was implemented. The authors highlight the fundamental need for representing the GrIS topography change feedbacks with respect to the atmospheric component face to the strong impact on the projected sea-level rise.
Daniel P. Lowry, Nicholas R. Golledge, Laurie Menviel, and Nancy A. N. Bertler
Clim. Past, 15, 189–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-189-2019, 2019
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Using two climate models, we seek to better understand changes in Antarctic climate and Southern Ocean conditions during the last deglaciation. We highlight the importance of sea ice and ice topography changes for Antarctic surface temperatures and snow accumulation as well as the sensitivity of Southern Ocean temperatures to meltwater fluxes. The results demonstrate that climate model simulations of the deglaciation could be greatly improved by considering ice–ocean interactions and feedbacks.
Chuncheng Guo, Mats Bentsen, Ingo Bethke, Mehmet Ilicak, Jerry Tjiputra, Thomas Toniazzo, Jörg Schwinger, and Odd Helge Otterå
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 343–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-343-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-343-2019, 2019
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In this paper, we describe and evaluate a new variant of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). It is a computationally efficient model that is designed for experiments such as paleoclimate, carbon cycle, and large ensemble simulations. The model, with various recent code updates, shows improved climate performance compared to the CMIP5 version of NorESM, while the model resolution remains similar.
Mi Yan, Bin Wang, Jian Liu, Axing Zhu, Liang Ning, and Jian Cao
Clim. Past, 14, 2037–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2037-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2037-2018, 2018
Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Paul Gierz, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 12, 3923–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3923-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3923-2018, 2018
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We present a new surface melt scheme for land ice. Derived from the energy balance of melting surfaces, the scheme may be particularly suitable for long ice-sheet simulations of past and future climates. It is computationally inexpensive and can be adapted to changes in the Earth's orbit and atmospheric composition. The scheme yields a better spatial representation of surface melt than common empirical schemes when applied to the Greenland Ice Sheet under present-day climate conditions.
Silvana Ramos Buarque and David Salas y Melia
Clim. Past, 14, 1707–1725, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1707-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1707-2018, 2018
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The link between the surface mass balance components of the Greenland Ice Sheet and both phases of the NAO is examined under preindustrial and warmer and colder climates of the last interglacial from simulations performed with CNRM-CM5.2. Accumulation in south Greenland is correlated with positive (negative) phases of the NAO in a warm (cold) climate. Melting under a warm (cold) climate is correlated with the negative (positive) phase of the NAO in north and northeast Greenland (at the margins).
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1279–1281, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, 2018
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Long-term sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models compared to paleoclimate data. The idea is presented that the trends and variability are related, which is elaborated in a conceptual model framework. The temperature spectrum can be used to estimate the timescale-dependent climate sensitivity.
Rumi Ohgaito, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Ryouta O'ishi, Toshihiko Takemura, Akinori Ito, Tomohiro Hajima, Shingo Watanabe, and Michio Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 14, 1565–1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1565-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1565-2018, 2018
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The behaviour of dust in terms of climate can be investigated using past climate. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21000 years before present) is known to be dustier. We investigated the impact of plausible dust distribution on the climate of the LGM using an Earth system model and found that the higher dust load results in less cooling over the polar regions. The main finding is that radiative perturbation by the high dust loading does not necessarily cool the surface surrounding Antarctica.
Evgeny Volodin and Andrey Gritsun
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1235–1242, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1235-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1235-2018, 2018
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Climate changes of 1850–2014 are modeled with the climate model INM-CM5. Periods of fast warming in 1920–1940 and 1980–2000 as well as its slowdown in 1950–1975 and 2000–2014 are correctly reproduced by the model. The notable improvement with respect to the previous model version is the correct reproduction of slowdowns in global warming that we attribute to a new aerosol block in the model and a more accurate description of the solar constant in the new (CMIP6) IPCC protocol.
Andreas Plach, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Sébastien Le clec'h, Andreas Born, Petra M. Langebroek, Chuncheng Guo, Michael Imhof, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 14, 1463–1485, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1463-2018, 2018
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The Greenland ice sheet is a huge frozen water reservoir which is crucial for predictions of sea level in a warming future climate. Therefore, computer models are needed to reliably simulate the melt of ice sheets. In this study, we use climate model simulations of the last period where it was warmer than today in Greenland. We test different melt models under these climatic conditions and show that the melt models show very different results under these warmer conditions.
Chris Brierley and Ilana Wainer
Clim. Past, 14, 1377–1390, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1377-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1377-2018, 2018
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Year-to-year changes in rainfall over Africa and South America are influenced by variations in the temperatures of tropical Atlantic variability. Here we investigate how these variations behave under climate change using a series of multi-model experiments. We look at how cold and warm climates of the past relate to future shifts in variability.
Axel Wagner, Gerrit Lohmann, and Matthias Prange
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-172, 2018
Publication in GMD not foreseen
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This study demonstrates the dependence of simulated surface air temperatures on variations in grid resolution and resolution-dependent orography in simulations of the Mid-Holocene. A set of Mid-Holocene sensitivity experiments is carried out. The simulated Mid-Holocene temperature differences (low versus high resolution) reveal a response that regionally exceeds the Mid-Holocene to preindustrial modelled temperature anomalies, and show partly reversed signs across the same geographical regions.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell Drysdale, Philip Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
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The penultimate deglaciation (~ 138–128 ka), which represents the transition into the Last Interglacial period, provides a framework to investigate the climate and environmental response to large changes in boundary conditions. Here, as part of the PAGES-PMIP working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation as well as a selection of paleo records for upcoming model-data comparisons.
Jesper Sjolte, Christophe Sturm, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 14, 1179–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, 2018
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Tropical volcanic eruptions and variations in solar activity have been suggested to influence the strength of westerly winds across the North Atlantic. We use Greenland ice core records together with a climate model simulation, and find stronger westerly winds for five winters following tropical volcanic eruptions. We see a delayed response to solar activity of 5 years, and the response to solar minima corresponds well to the cooling pattern during the period known as the Little Ice Age.
Jian Cao, Bin Wang, Young-Min Yang, Libin Ma, Juan Li, Bo Sun, Yan Bao, Jie He, Xiao Zhou, and Liguang Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2975–2993, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2975-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2975-2018, 2018
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The development of version 3 of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) Earth System Model (NESM v3) aims at building up a comprehensive numerical modeling laboratory for multidisciplinary studies of the climate system and Earth system. The model evaluation shows the model obtained stable long-term integrations and reasonable global mean states under preindustrial (PI) forcing and simulated reasonable climate responses to transient and abrupt CO2 forcing.
Nadine Steiger, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Henning Åkesson, Basile de Fleurian, and Faezeh M. Nick
The Cryosphere, 12, 2249–2266, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2249-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2249-2018, 2018
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We use an ice flow model to reconstruct the retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ since 1850, forced by increased ocean warming and calving. Fjord geometry governs locations of rapid retreat: narrow and shallow areas act as intermittent pinning points for decades, followed by delayed rapid retreat without additional climate warming. These areas may be used to locate potential moraine buildup. Evidently, historic retreat and geometric influences have to be analyzed individually for each glacier system.
Akitomo Yamamoto, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Yasuhiro Yamanaka
Biogeosciences, 15, 4163–4180, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4163-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4163-2018, 2018
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Millennial-scale changes in oceanic CO2 uptake due to global warming are simulated by a GCM and offline biogeochemical model. Sensitivity studies show that decreases in oceanic CO2 uptake are mainly caused by a weaker biological pump and seawater warming. Enhanced CO2 uptake due to weaker equatorial upwelling cancels out reduced CO2 uptake due to weaker AMOC and AABW formation. Thus, circulation change plays only a small direct role in reduction of CO2 uptake due to global warming.
Zhongshi Zhang, Qing Yan, Elizabeth J. Farmer, Camille Li, Gilles Ramstein, Terence Hughes, Martin Jakobsson, Matt O'Regan, Ran Zhang, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Christophe Dumas, and Chuncheng Guo
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-79, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Our study challenges the widely accepted idea that the Laurentide-Eurasian ice sheets gradually extended across North America and Northwest Eurasia, and suggests the growth of the NH ice sheets is much more complicated. We find climate feedbacks regulate the distribution of the NH ice sheets, producing swings between two distinct ice sheet configurations: the Laurentide-Eurasian and a circum-Arctic configuration, where large ice sheets existed over Northeast Siberia and the Canadian Rockies.
Guillaume Latombe, Ariane Burke, Mathieu Vrac, Guillaume Levavasseur, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, and Gilles Ramstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2563–2579, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2563-2018, 2018
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It is still unclear how climate conditions, and especially climate variability, influenced the spatial distribution of past human populations. Global climate models (GCMs) cannot simulate climate at sufficiently fine scale for this purpose. We propose a statistical method to obtain fine-scale climate projections for 15 000 years ago from coarse-scale GCM outputs. Our method agrees with local reconstructions from fossil and pollen data, and generates sensible climate variability maps over Europe.
Stephanie A. P. Blake, Sophie C. Lewis, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Ron L. Miller
Clim. Past, 14, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-811-2018, 2018
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We studied the impact of the six largest tropical eruptions in reference to
Australian precipitation, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Volcanic forcing increased the likelihood of El Niños and positive IODs (pIOD) and caused positive rainfall anomalies over north-west (NW) and south-east (SE) Australia. Larger sulfate loading caused more persistent pIOD and El Niños, enhanced precipitation over NW Australia, and dampened precipitation over SE Australia.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
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We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Kaitlin A. Naughten, Katrin J. Meissner, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Matthew H. England, Ralph Timmermann, Hartmut H. Hellmer, Tore Hattermann, and Jens B. Debernard
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1257–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1257-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1257-2018, 2018
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MetROMS and FESOM are two ocean/sea-ice models which resolve Antarctic ice-shelf cavities and consider thermodynamics at the ice-shelf base. We simulate the period 1992–2016 with both models, and with two options for resolution in FESOM, and compare output from the three simulations. Ice-shelf melt rates, sub-ice-shelf circulation, continental shelf water masses, and sea-ice processes are compared and evaluated against available observations.
Sebastian G. Mutz, Todd A. Ehlers, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, Christian Stepanek, and Jingmin Li
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 271–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, 2018
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We use a climate model and statistics to provide an overview of regional climates from different times in the late Cenozoic. We focus on tectonically active mountain ranges in particular. Our results highlight significant changes in climates throughout the late Cenozoic, which should be taken into consideration when interpreting erosion rates. We also document the differences between model- and proxy-based estimates for late Cenozoic climate change in South America and Tibet.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
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The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
Akil Hossain, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-9, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-9, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Lauren Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Ken S. Carslaw, Graham W. Mann, Michael Sigl, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Davide Zanchettin, William T. Ball, Slimane Bekki, James S. A. Brooke, Sandip Dhomse, Colin Johnson, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, James O. Pope, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, 2018
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We use four global aerosol models to compare the simulated sulfate deposition from the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption to ice core records. Inter-model volcanic sulfate deposition differs considerably. Volcanic sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets is used to estimate the atmospheric sulfate burden and subsequently radiative forcing of historic eruptions. Our results suggest that deriving such relationships from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.
Marie Nicolle, Maxime Debret, Nicolas Massei, Christophe Colin, Anne deVernal, Dmitry Divine, Johannes P. Werner, Anne Hormes, Atte Korhola, and Hans W. Linderholm
Clim. Past, 14, 101–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-101-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-101-2018, 2018
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Arctic climate variability for the last 2 millennia has been investigated using statistical and signal analyses from North Atlantic, Siberia and Alaska regionally averaged records. A focus on the last 2 centuries shows a climate variability linked to anthropogenic forcing but also a multidecadal variability likely due to regional natural processes acting on the internal climate system. It is an important issue to understand multidecadal variabilities occurring in the instrumental data.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
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Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Michel Legrand, Susanne Preunkert, Eric Wolff, Rolf Weller, Bruno Jourdain, and Dietmar Wagenbach
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14039–14054, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14039-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14039-2017, 2017
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Multiple year-round records of bulk and size-segregated composition of sea-salt aerosol and acidic gases (HCl and HNO3) were obtained at inland Antarctica. Both acidic sulfur particles and nitric acid are involved in the observed sea-salt dechlorination in spring/summer. The observed sulfate to sodium mass ratio of sea-salt aerosol in winter (0.16 ± 0.05) suggests on average a similar contribution of sea-ice and open-ocean emissions to the sea-salt load over inland Antarctica at that season.
Norel Rimbu, Monica Ionita, Markus Czymzik, Achim Brauer, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-137, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Multi-decadal to millennial flood frequency variations in the Mid- to Late Holocene in a flood layer record from Lake Ammersee is strongly related to the occurrence of extreme precipitation and temperatures in the northeastern Europe.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
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The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Karin F. Kvale and Katrin J. Meissner
Biogeosciences, 14, 4767–4780, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4767-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4767-2017, 2017
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Climate models containing ocean biogeochemistry contain a lot of poorly constrained parameters, which makes model tuning difficult. For more than 20 years modellers have generally assumed phytoplankton light attenuation parameter value choice has an insignificant affect on model ocean primary production; thus, it is often overlooked for tuning. We show that an empirical range of light attenuation parameter values can affect primary production, with increasing sensitivity under climate change.
María Fernanda Sánchez Goñi, Stéphanie Desprat, Anne-Laure Daniau, Frank C. Bassinot, Josué M. Polanco-Martínez, Sandy P. Harrison, Judy R. M. Allen, R. Scott Anderson, Hermann Behling, Raymonde Bonnefille, Francesc Burjachs, José S. Carrión, Rachid Cheddadi, James S. Clark, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Colin. J. Courtney Mustaphi, Georg H. Debusk, Lydie M. Dupont, Jemma M. Finch, William J. Fletcher, Marco Giardini, Catalina González, William D. Gosling, Laurie D. Grigg, Eric C. Grimm, Ryoma Hayashi, Karin Helmens, Linda E. Heusser, Trevor Hill, Geoffrey Hope, Brian Huntley, Yaeko Igarashi, Tomohisa Irino, Bonnie Jacobs, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Sayuri Kawai, A. Peter Kershaw, Fujio Kumon, Ian T. Lawson, Marie-Pierre Ledru, Anne-Marie Lézine, Ping Mei Liew, Donatella Magri, Robert Marchant, Vasiliki Margari, Francis E. Mayle, G. Merna McKenzie, Patrick Moss, Stefanie Müller, Ulrich C. Müller, Filipa Naughton, Rewi M. Newnham, Tadamichi Oba, Ramón Pérez-Obiol, Roberta Pini, Cesare Ravazzi, Katy H. Roucoux, Stephen M. Rucina, Louis Scott, Hikaru Takahara, Polichronis C. Tzedakis, Dunia H. Urrego, Bas van Geel, B. Guido Valencia, Marcus J. Vandergoes, Annie Vincens, Cathy L. Whitlock, Debra A. Willard, and Masanobu Yamamoto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 679–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-679-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-679-2017, 2017
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The ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73–15 ka) plotted against a common chronology; 32 also provide charcoal records. The database allows for the reconstruction of the regional expression, vegetation and fire of past abrupt climate changes that are comparable to those expected in the 21st century. This work is a major contribution to understanding the processes behind rapid climate change.
Lu Niu, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian Hinck, and Evan J. Gowan
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-105, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to atmospheric forcing during the last glacial-interglacial cycle is investigated by using output from PMIP3 models. The results show large diversity in simulated ice sheets between different models. We found that summer surface air temperature pattern resembles the ice sheet extent pattern at the LGM. This study implies careful constrains on climate output is essential for simulating reliable glacial-interglacial Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.
Michiel M. Helsen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas J. Reerink, Richard Bintanja, Marianne S. Madsen, Shuting Yang, Qiang Li, and Qiong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 11, 1949–1965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, 2017
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Ice sheets reflect most incoming solar radiation back into space due to their high reflectivity (albedo). The albedo of ice sheets changes as a function of, for example, liquid water content and ageing of snow. In this study we have improved the description of albedo over the Greenland ice sheet in a global climate model. This is an important step, which also improves estimates of the annual ice mass gain or loss over the ice sheet using this global climate model.
Rachael H. Rhodes, Xin Yang, Eric W. Wolff, Joseph R. McConnell, and Markus M. Frey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9417–9433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9417-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9417-2017, 2017
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Sea salt aerosol comes from the open ocean or the sea ice surface. In the polar regions, this opens up the possibility of reconstructing sea ice history using sea salt recorded in ice cores. We use a chemical transport model to demonstrate that the sea ice source of aerosol is important in the Arctic. For the first time, we simulate realistic Greenland ice core sea salt in a process-based model. The importance of the sea ice source increases from south to north across the Greenland ice sheet.
Priscilla Le Mézo, Luc Beaufort, Laurent Bopp, Pascale Braconnot, and Masa Kageyama
Clim. Past, 13, 759–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-759-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-759-2017, 2017
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This paper focuses on the relationship between Arabian Sea biological productivity and the Indian summer monsoon in climates of the last 72 kyr. A general circulation model coupled to a biogeochemistry model simulates the changes in productivity and monsoon intensity and pattern. The paradigm stating that a stronger summer monsoon enhances productivity is not always verified in our simulations. This work highlights the importance of considering the monsoon pattern in addition to its intensity.
Daniela Niemeyer, Tronje P. Kemena, Katrin J. Meissner, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 357–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-357-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-357-2017, 2017
Vera D. Meyer, Jens Hefter, Gerrit Lohmann, Lars Max, Ralf Tiedemann, and Gesine Mollenhauer
Clim. Past, 13, 359–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-359-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-359-2017, 2017
Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Eleni Anagnostou, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Rodrigo Caballero, Rob DeConto, Henk A. Dijkstra, Yannick Donnadieu, David Evans, Ran Feng, Gavin L. Foster, Ed Gasson, Anna S. von der Heydt, Chris J. Hollis, Gordon N. Inglis, Stephen M. Jones, Jeff Kiehl, Sandy Kirtland Turner, Robert L. Korty, Reinhardt Kozdon, Srinath Krishnan, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Petra Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Allegra N. LeGrande, Kate Littler, Paul Markwick, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Paul Pearson, Christopher J. Poulsen, Ulrich Salzmann, Christine Shields, Kathryn Snell, Michael Stärz, James Super, Clay Tabor, Jessica E. Tierney, Gregory J. L. Tourte, Aradhna Tripati, Garland R. Upchurch, Bridget S. Wade, Scott L. Wing, Arne M. E. Winguth, Nicky M. Wright, James C. Zachos, and Richard E. Zeebe
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 889–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, 2017
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In this paper we describe the experimental design for a set of simulations which will be carried out by a range of climate models, all investigating the climate of the Eocene, about 50 million years ago. The intercomparison of model results is called 'DeepMIP', and we anticipate that we will contribute to the next IPCC report through an analysis of these simulations and the geological data to which we will compare them.
Henning Åkesson, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Rianne H. Giesen, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 11, 281–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-281-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-281-2017, 2017
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We present simulations of the history of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway using a dynamical ice sheet model. From mid-Holocene ice-free conditions 4000 years ago, Hardangerjøkulen grows nonlinearly in response to a linear climate forcing, reaching maximum extent during the Little Ice Age (~ 1750 AD). The ice cap exhibits spatially asymmetric growth and retreat and is highly sensitive to climate change. Our results call for reassessment of glacier reconstructions from proxy records.
Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, Heiko Goelzer, William Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Andrew Shepherd
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4521–4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, 2016
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This paper describes an experimental protocol designed to quantify and understand the global sea level that arises due to past, present, and future changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, along with investigating ice sheet–climate feedbacks. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) protocol includes targeted experiments, and a set of output diagnostic related to ice sheets, that are part of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
Louise C. Sime, Dominic Hodgson, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Claire Allen, Bianca Perren, Stephen Roberts, and Agatha M. de Boer
Clim. Past, 12, 2241–2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2241-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2241-2016, 2016
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Latitudinal shifts in the Southern Ocean westerly wind jet could explain large observed changes in the glacial to interglacial ocean CO2 inventory. However there is considerable disagreement in modelled deglacial-warming jet shifts. Here multi-model output is used to show that expansion of sea ice during the glacial period likely caused a slight poleward shift and intensification in the westerly wind jet. Issues with model representation of the winds caused much of the previous disagreement.
Xinyu Wen, Zhengyu Liu, Zhongxiao Chen, Esther Brady, David Noone, Qingzhao Zhu, and Jian Guan
Clim. Past, 12, 2077–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we challenge the usefulness of temperature effect and amount effect, the basic assumptions in past climate reconstruction using a stable water isotope proxy, in East Asia on multiple timescales. By modeling several time slices in the past 22 000 years using an isotope-enabled general circulation model, we suggest great caution when interpreting δ18O records in this area as indicators of surface temperature and/or local monsoonal precipitation, especially on a millennial timescale.
Pierre Burckel, Claire Waelbroeck, Yiming Luo, Didier M. Roche, Sylvain Pichat, Samuel L. Jaccard, Jeanne Gherardi, Aline Govin, Jörg Lippold, and François Thil
Clim. Past, 12, 2061–2075, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2061-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2061-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we compare new and published Atlantic sedimentary Pa/Th data with Pa/Th simulated using stream functions generated under various climatic conditions. We show that during Greenland interstadials of the 20–50 ka period, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation was very different from that of the Holocene. Moreover, southern-sourced waters dominated the Atlantic during Heinrich stadial 2, a slow northern-sourced water mass flowing above 2500 m in the North Atlantic.
Michel Legrand, Joseph McConnell, Hubertus Fischer, Eric W. Wolff, Susanne Preunkert, Monica Arienzo, Nathan Chellman, Daiana Leuenberger, Olivia Maselli, Philip Place, Michael Sigl, Simon Schüpbach, and Mike Flannigan
Clim. Past, 12, 2033–2059, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2033-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2033-2016, 2016
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Here, we review previous attempts made to reconstruct past forest fire using chemical signals recorded in Greenland ice. We showed that the Greenland ice records of ammonium, found to be a good fire proxy, consistently indicate changing fire activity in Canada in response to past climatic conditions that occurred since the last 15 000 years, including the Little Ice Age and the last large climatic transition.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Emma J. Stone, Emilie Capron, Daniel J. Lunt, Antony J. Payne, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 12, 1919–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1919-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1919-2016, 2016
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Climate models forced only with greenhouse gas concentrations and orbital parameters representative of the early Last Interglacial are unable to reproduce the observed colder-than-present temperatures in the North Atlantic and the warmer-than-present temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere. Using a climate model forced also with a freshwater amount derived from data representing melting from the remnant Northern Hemisphere ice sheets accounts for this response via the bipolar seesaw mechanism.
Amaelle Landais, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Emilie Capron, Petra M. Langebroek, Pepijn Bakker, Emma J. Stone, Niklaus Merz, Christoph C. Raible, Hubertus Fischer, Anaïs Orsi, Frédéric Prié, Bo Vinther, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
Clim. Past, 12, 1933–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, 2016
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The last lnterglacial (LIG; 116 000 to 129 000 years before present) surface temperature at the upstream Greenland NEEM deposition site is estimated to be warmer by +7 to +11 °C compared to the preindustrial period. We show that under such warm temperatures, melting of snow probably led to a significant surface melting. There is a paradox between the extent of the Greenland ice sheet during the LIG and the strong warming during this period that models cannot solve.
Christopher M. Colose, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Mathias Vuille
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 681–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-681-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-681-2016, 2016
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A band of intense rainfall exists near the equator known as the intertropical convergence zone, which can migrate in response to climate forcings. Here, we assess such migration in response to volcanic eruptions of varying spatial structure (Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, or an eruption fairly symmetric about the equator). We do this using model simulations of the last millennium and link results to energetic constraints and the imprint eruptions may leave behind in past records.
Davide Zanchettin, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Anja Schmidt, Edwin P. Gerber, Gabriele Hegerl, Alan Robock, Francesco S. R. Pausata, William T. Ball, Susanne E. Bauer, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Michael Mills, Marion Marchand, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Eugene Rozanov, Angelo Rubino, Andrea Stenke, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016
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Simulating volcanically-forced climate variability is a challenging task for climate models. The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) – an endorsed contribution to CMIP6 – defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability of results across different climate models. This paper illustrates the design of VolMIP's experiments and describes the aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.
Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, Masa Kageyama, Didier M. Roche, Paul J. Valdes, Andrea Burke, Rosemarie Drummond, W. Richard Peltier, and Lev Tarasov
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2563-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2563-2016, 2016
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This manuscript presents the experiment design for the PMIP4 Last Deglaciation Core experiment: a transient simulation of the last deglaciation, 21–9 ka. Specified model boundary conditions include time-varying orbital parameters, greenhouse gases, ice sheets, ice meltwater fluxes and other geographical changes (provided for 26–0 ka). The context of the experiment and the choices for the boundary conditions are explained, along with the future direction of the working group.
Madlene Pfeiffer and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 12, 1313–1338, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1313-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1313-2016, 2016
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The Last Interglacial was warmer, with a reduced Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS), compared to the late Holocene. We analyse – through climate model simulations – the impact of a reduced GIS on the global surface air temperature and find a relatively strong warming especially in the Northern Hemisphere. These results are then compared to temperature reconstructions, indicating good agreement with respect to the pattern. However, the simulated temperatures underestimate the proxy-based temperatures.
Paolo Scussolini, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Brenden Jongman, Laurens M. Bouwer, Hessel C. Winsemius, Hans de Moel, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1049–1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1049-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1049-2016, 2016
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Assessments of flood risk, on global to local scales, are becoming more urgent with ongoing climate change and with rapid socioeconomic developments. Such assessments need information about existing flood protection, still largely unavailable. Here we present the first open-source database of FLood PROtection Standards, FLOPROS, which enables more accurate modelling of flood risk. We also invite specialists to contribute new information to this evolving database.
Roland Séférian, Christine Delire, Bertrand Decharme, Aurore Voldoire, David Salas y Melia, Matthieu Chevallier, David Saint-Martin, Olivier Aumont, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Dominique Carrer, Hervé Douville, Laurent Franchistéguy, Emilie Joetzjer, and Séphane Sénési
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1423–1453, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1423-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1423-2016, 2016
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This paper presents the first IPCC-class Earth system model developed at Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-ESM1). We detail how the various carbon reservoirs were initialized and analyze the behavior of the carbon cycle and its prominent physical drivers, comparing model results to the most up-to-date climate and carbon cycle dataset over the latest decades.
Christopher M. Colose, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Mathias Vuille
Clim. Past, 12, 961–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-961-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-961-2016, 2016
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Volcanic forcing is the most important source of forced variability during the preindustrial component of the last millennium (~ 850-1850 CE) and is important during the last century.
Here, we focus on the climate impact over South America in a model-based study. Emphasis is given to temperature, precipitation, and oxygen isotope variability (allowing for potential contact made with paleoclimate-based observations)
Here, we focus on the climate impact over South America in a model-based study. Emphasis is given to temperature, precipitation, and oxygen isotope variability (allowing for potential contact made with paleoclimate-based observations)
Ikumi Oyabu, Yoshinori Iizuka, Eric Wolff, and Margareta Hansson
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-42, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-42, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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This study presented the chemical compositions of non-volatile particles around the last termination in the Dome C ice core by using the sublimation-EDS method. The major soluble salt particles are CaSO4, Na2SO4, and NaCl, and time-series changes in the composition of these salts are similar to those for the Dome Fuji ice core. However, some differences occurred. The sulfatization rate of NaCl at Dome C is higher than that at Dome Fuji.
Fergus W. Howell, Alan M. Haywood, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Youichi Kamae, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nan A. Rosenbloom, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 12, 749–767, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-749-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-749-2016, 2016
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Simulations of pre-industrial and mid-Pliocene Arctic sea ice by eight GCMs are analysed. Ensemble variability in sea ice extent is greater in the mid-Pliocene summer, when half of the models simulate sea-ice-free conditions. Weaker correlations are seen between sea ice extent and temperatures in the pre-industrial era compared to the mid-Pliocene. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances.
Lucie Bazin, Amaelle Landais, Emilie Capron, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Catherine Ritz, Ghislain Picard, Jean Jouzel, Marie Dumont, Markus Leuenberger, and Frédéric Prié
Clim. Past, 12, 729–748, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-729-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-729-2016, 2016
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We present new measurements of δO2⁄N2 and δ18Oatm performed on well-conserved ice from EDC covering MIS5 and between 380 and 800 ka. The combination of the observation of a 100 ka periodicity in the new δO2⁄N2 record with a MIS5 multi-site multi-proxy study has revealed a potential influence of local climatic parameters on δO2⁄N2. Moreover, we propose that the varying delay between d18Oatm and precession for the last 800 ka is affected by the occurrence of ice sheet discharge events.
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Paul Hearty, Reto Ruedy, Maxwell Kelley, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Gary Russell, George Tselioudis, Junji Cao, Eric Rignot, Isabella Velicogna, Blair Tormey, Bailey Donovan, Evgeniya Kandiano, Karina von Schuckmann, Pushker Kharecha, Allegra N. Legrande, Michael Bauer, and Kwok-Wai Lo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016, 2016
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We use climate simulations, paleoclimate data and modern observations to infer that continued high fossil fuel emissions will yield cooling of Southern Ocean and North Atlantic surfaces, slowdown and shutdown of SMOC & AMOC, increasingly powerful storms and nonlinear sea level rise reaching several meters in 50–150 years, effects missed in IPCC reports because of omission of ice sheet melt and an insensitivity of most climate models, likely due to excessive ocean mixing.
Alan M. Haywood, Harry J. Dowsett, Aisling M. Dolan, David Rowley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Mark A. Chandler, Stephen J. Hunter, Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Pound, and Ulrich Salzmann
Clim. Past, 12, 663–675, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-663-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-663-2016, 2016
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Our paper presents the experimental design for the second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). We outline the way in which climate models should be set up in order to study the Pliocene – a period of global warmth in Earth's history which is relevant for our understanding of future climate change. By conducting a model intercomparison we hope to understand the uncertainty associated with model predictions of a warmer climate.
Matthew J. Carmichael, Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Malte Heinemann, Jeffrey Kiehl, Allegra LeGrande, Claire A. Loptson, Chris D. Roberts, Navjit Sagoo, Christine Shields, Paul J. Valdes, Arne Winguth, Cornelia Winguth, and Richard D. Pancost
Clim. Past, 12, 455–481, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-455-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-455-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we assess how well model-simulated precipitation rates compare to those indicated by geological data for the early Eocene, a warm interval 56–49 million years ago. Our results show that a number of models struggle to produce sufficient precipitation at high latitudes, which likely relates to cool simulated temperatures in these regions. However, calculating precipitation rates from plant fossils is highly uncertain, and further data are now required.
Norel Rimbu, Markus Czymzik, Monica Ionita, Gerrit Lohmann, and Achim Brauer
Clim. Past, 12, 377–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-377-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-377-2016, 2016
M. Werner, B. Haese, X. Xu, X. Zhang, M. Butzin, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 647–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, 2016
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This paper presents the first results of a new isotope-enabled GCM set-up, based on the ECHAM5/MPI-OM fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Results of two equilibrium simulations under pre-industrial and Last Glacial Maximum conditions reveal a good to very good agreement with many delta O-18 and delta D observational records, and a remarkable improvement for the modelling of the deuterium excess signal in Antarctic ice cores.
M. Stärz, G. Lohmann, and G. Knorr
Clim. Past, 12, 151–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-151-2016, 2016
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In order to account for coupled climate-soil processes, we developed a soil scheme which is asynchronously coupled to an earth system model. We tested the scheme and found additional warming for a relatively warm climate (mid-Holocene), and extra cooling for a colder (Last Glacial Maximum) than preindustrial climate. These findings indicate a relatively strong positive soil feedback to climate, which may help to reduce model-data discrepancies for the climate of the geological past.
P.M. Langebroek and K.H. Nisancioglu
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-15, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-15, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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Last interglacial (LIG) temperatures over Greenland were several degrees higher than today, causing melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS). We use temperatures and precipitation from the Norwegian Earth System Model to simulate the GIS during the LIG. Present-day observations of the GIS, together with paleo elevation data from ice cores, constrain our ice sheet simulations. We find a GIS reduction of 0.8–2.2 m compared to today, with the strongest melt occurring in the southwest.
B. A. A. Hoogakker, R. S. Smith, J. S. Singarayer, R. Marchant, I. C. Prentice, J. R. M. Allen, R. S. Anderson, S. A. Bhagwat, H. Behling, O. Borisova, M. Bush, A. Correa-Metrio, A. de Vernal, J. M. Finch, B. Fréchette, S. Lozano-Garcia, W. D. Gosling, W. Granoszewski, E. C. Grimm, E. Grüger, J. Hanselman, S. P. Harrison, T. R. Hill, B. Huntley, G. Jiménez-Moreno, P. Kershaw, M.-P. Ledru, D. Magri, M. McKenzie, U. Müller, T. Nakagawa, E. Novenko, D. Penny, L. Sadori, L. Scott, J. Stevenson, P. J. Valdes, M. Vandergoes, A. Velichko, C. Whitlock, and C. Tzedakis
Clim. Past, 12, 51–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-51-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-51-2016, 2016
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In this paper we use two climate models to test how Earth’s vegetation responded to changes in climate over the last 120 000 years, looking at warm interglacial climates like today, cold ice-age glacial climates, and intermediate climates. The models agree well with observations from pollen, showing smaller forested areas and larger desert areas during cold periods. Forests store most terrestrial carbon; the terrestrial carbon lost during cold climates was most likely relocated to the oceans.
F. Saito, A. Abe-Ouchi, K. Takahashi, and H. Blatter
The Cryosphere, 10, 43–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-43-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-43-2016, 2016
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This article, as the title denotes, is a follow-up study of an ice-sheet intercomparison project SeaRISE, which focuses on the response of the Greenland ice sheet to future global warming. The projections of the different SeaRISE prticipants show diversion, which has not been examined in detail to date. This study detects the main sources of the diversion by a number of sensitivity experiments and shows the importance of initialization methods as well as climate forcing methods.
M. Forrest, J. T. Eronen, T. Utescher, G. Knorr, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, and T. Hickler
Clim. Past, 11, 1701–1732, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1701-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1701-2015, 2015
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We simulated Late Miocene (11-7 Million years ago) vegetation using two plausible CO2 concentrations: 280ppm CO2 and 450ppm CO2. We compared the simulated vegetation to existing plant fossil data for the whole Northern Hemisphere. Our results suggest that during the Late Miocene the CO2 levels have been relatively low, or that other factors that are not included in the models maintained the seasonal temperate forests and open vegetation.
C. Reutenauer, A. Landais, T. Blunier, C. Bréant, M. Kageyama, M.-N. Woillez, C. Risi, V. Mariotti, and P. Braconnot
Clim. Past, 11, 1527–1551, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1527-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1527-2015, 2015
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Isotopes of atmospheric O2 undergo millennial-scale variations during the last glacial period, and systematically increase during Heinrich stadials.
Such variations are mostly due to vegetation and water cycle processes.
Our modeling approach reproduces the main observed features of Heinrich stadials in terms of climate, vegetation and rainfall.
It highlights the strong role of hydrology on O2 isotopes, which can be seen as a global integrator of precipitation changes over vegetated areas.
A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, M. Kageyama, P. Braconnot, S. P. Harrison, K. Lambeck, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, W. R. Peltier, L. Tarasov, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, and K. Takahashi
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3621–3637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, 2015
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We describe the creation of boundary conditions related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and altitude of ice-free land, at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), for use in LGM experiments conducted as part of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The difference in the ice sheet boundary conditions as well as the climate response to them are discussed.
X. Shi and G. Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2137-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2137-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Our work is to investigate to what degree the open water ice formation affects the ice and ocean properties.
Our results show a positive feedback among the Arctic sea ice, the AMOC, and the surface air temperature in the Arctic.
The sea ice transport affects the freshwater budget in regions of deep water formation.
A link between the climate of Northern Hemisphere continents and the lead closing rate during ice formation period is also shown by the model.
P. Beghin, S. Charbit, C. Dumas, M. Kageyama, and C. Ritz
Clim. Past, 11, 1467–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1467-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1467-2015, 2015
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The present study investigates the potential impact of the North American ice sheet on the surface mass balance of the Eurasian ice sheet through changes in the past glacial atmospheric circulation. Using an atmospheric circulation model and an ice-sheet model, we show that the albedo of the American ice sheet favors the growth of the Eurasian ice sheet, whereas the topography of the American ice sheet leads to more ablation over North Eurasia, and therefore to a smaller Eurasian ice sheet.
E. Darelius, I. Fer, T. Rasmussen, C. Guo, and K. M. H. Larsen
Ocean Sci., 11, 855–871, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-855-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-855-2015, 2015
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Quasi-regular eddies are known to be generated in the outflow of dense water through the Faroe Bank Channel. One year long mooring records from the plume region show that (1) the energy associated with the eddies varies by a factor of 10 throughout the year and (2) the frequency of the eddies shifts between 3 and 6 days and is related to the strength of the outflow. Similar variability is shown by a high-resolution regional model and the observations agree with theory on baroclinic instability.
J. H. Koh and C. M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 11, 1433–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1433-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1433-2015, 2015
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Here we diagnose simulated changes in large-scale climate variables associated with the formation of tropical cyclones (i.e. hurricanes and typhoons). The cumulative potential for storm formation is pretty constant, despite the climate changes between the Last Glacial Maximum and the warm Pliocene. There are, however, coherent shifts in the relative strength of the storm regions. Little connection appears between the past behaviour in the five models studied and their future projections.
S. Fujita, F. Parrenin, M. Severi, H. Motoyama, and E. W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 11, 1395–1416, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1395-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1395-2015, 2015
S. Jasechko, A. Lechler, F. S. R. Pausata, P. J. Fawcett, T. Gleeson, D. I. Cendón, J. Galewsky, A. N. LeGrande, C. Risi, Z. D. Sharp, J. M. Welker, M. Werner, and K. Yoshimura
Clim. Past, 11, 1375–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, 2015
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In this study we compile global isotope proxy records of climate changes from the last ice age to the late-Holocene preserved in cave calcite, glacial ice and groundwater aquifers. We show that global patterns of late-Pleistocene to late-Holocene precipitation isotope shifts are consistent with stronger-than-modern isotopic distillation of air masses during the last ice age, likely impacted by larger global temperature differences between the tropics and the poles.
S. C. Lewis and A. N. LeGrande
Clim. Past, 11, 1347–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, 2015
M. Ballarotta, F. Roquet, S. Falahat, Q. Zhang, and G. Madec
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-3597-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-3597-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We investigate the impact of the ocean geothermal heating (OGH) on a glacial ocean state using numerical simulations. We found that the OGH is a significant forcing of the abyssal ocean and thermohaline circulation. Applying the OGH warms the Antarctic Bottom Water by ~0.4°C and strengthens the deep circulation by 15% to 30%. The geothermally heated waters are advected from the Indo-Pacific to the North Atlantic basin, indirectly favouring the deep convection in the North Atlantic.
A. Jahn, K. Lindsay, X. Giraud, N. Gruber, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, Z. Liu, and E. C. Brady
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2419–2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2419-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2419-2015, 2015
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Carbon isotopes have been added to the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). This paper describes the details of how the abiotic 14C tracer and the biotic 13C and 14C tracers were added to the existing ocean model of the CESM. In addition, it shows the first results of the new model features compared to observational data for the 1990s.
D. Zhu, S. S. Peng, P. Ciais, N. Viovy, A. Druel, M. Kageyama, G. Krinner, P. Peylin, C. Ottlé, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, D. Schepaschenko, and A. Shvidenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2263–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2263-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2263-2015, 2015
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This study presents a new parameterization of the vegetation dynamics module in the process-based ecosystem model ORCHIDEE for mid- to high-latitude regions, showing significant improvements in the modeled distribution of tree functional types north of 40°N. A new set of metrics is proposed to quantify the performance of ORCHIDEE, which integrates uncertainties in the observational data sets.
S. J. Allin, J. C. Laube, E. Witrant, J. Kaiser, E. McKenna, P. Dennis, R. Mulvaney, E. Capron, P. Martinerie, T. Röckmann, T. Blunier, J. Schwander, P. J. Fraser, R. L. Langenfelds, and W. T. Sturges
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6867–6877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6867-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6867-2015, 2015
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Stratospheric ozone protects life on Earth from harmful UV-B radiation. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are man-made compounds which act to destroy this barrier.
This paper presents (1) the first measurements of the stratospheric δ(37Cl) of CFCs -11 and -113; (2) the first quantification of long-term trends in the tropospheric δ(37Cl) of CFCs -11, -12 and -113.
This study provides a better understanding of source and sink processes associated with these destructive compounds.
S. Albani, N. M. Mahowald, G. Winckler, R. F. Anderson, L. I. Bradtmiller, B. Delmonte, R. François, M. Goman, N. G. Heavens, P. P. Hesse, S. A. Hovan, S. G. Kang, K. E. Kohfeld, H. Lu, V. Maggi, J. A. Mason, P. A. Mayewski, D. McGee, X. Miao, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. T. Perry, A. Pourmand, H. M. Roberts, N. Rosenbloom, T. Stevens, and J. Sun
Clim. Past, 11, 869–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-869-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-869-2015, 2015
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We propose an innovative framework to organize paleodust records, formalized in a publicly accessible database, and discuss the emerging properties of the global dust cycle during the Holocene by integrating our analysis with simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model. We show how the size distribution of dust is intrinsically related to the dust mass accumulation rates and that only considering a consistent size range allows for a consistent analysis of the global dust cycle.
F. Parrenin, L. Bazin, E. Capron, A. Landais, B. Lemieux-Dudon, and V. Masson-Delmotte
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1473–1492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1473-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1473-2015, 2015
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This manuscript describes a probabilistic model which aims at optimizing the chronology of ice cores by combining different sources of information.
B. de Boer, A. M. Dolan, J. Bernales, E. Gasson, H. Goelzer, N. R. Golledge, J. Sutter, P. Huybrechts, G. Lohmann, I. Rogozhina, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 9, 881–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, 2015
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We present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an intercomparison project with six ice-sheet models. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of all models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line. Improved grounding-line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.
C. M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 11, 605–618, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-605-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-605-2015, 2015
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Previously, model ensembles have shown little consensus in the response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to imposed forcings – either for the past or future. The recent coordinated experiment on the warm Pliocene (~3 million years ago) shows surprising agreement that there was a robustly weaker ENSO with a shift to lower frequencies. Suggested physical mechanisms cannot explain this coherent signal, and it warrants further investigation.
S. J. Koenig, A. M. Dolan, B. de Boer, E. J. Stone, D. J. Hill, R. M. DeConto, A. Abe-Ouchi, D. J. Lunt, D. Pollard, A. Quiquet, F. Saito, J. Savage, and R. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, 2015
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The paper assess the Greenland Ice Sheet’s sensitivity to a warm period in the past, a time when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to current levels. We quantify ice sheet volume and locations in Greenland and find that the ice sheets are less sensitive to differences in ice sheet model configurations than to changes in imposed climate forcing. We conclude that Pliocene ice was most likely to be limited to highest elevations in eastern and southern Greenland.
A. Cauquoin, A. Landais, G. M. Raisbeck, J. Jouzel, L. Bazin, M. Kageyama, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, M. Werner, E. Bard, and ASTER Team
Clim. Past, 11, 355–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-355-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-355-2015, 2015
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We present a new 10Be record at EDC between 269 and 355ka. Our 10Be-based accumulation rate is in good agreement with the one associated with the EDC3 timescale except for the warm MIS 9.3 optimum. This suggests that temperature reconstruction from water isotopes may be underestimated by 2.4K for the difference between the MIS 9.3 and present day. The CMIP5-PMIP3 models do not quantitatively reproduce changes in precipitation vs. temperature increase during glacial–interglacial transitions.
A. M. Dolan, S. J. Hunter, D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, S. J. Koenig, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 11, 403–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, 2015
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Climate and ice sheet models are often used to predict the nature of ice sheets in Earth history. It is important to understand whether such predictions are consistent among different models, especially in warm periods of relevance to the future. We use input from 15 different climate models to run one ice sheet model and compare the predictions over Greenland. We find that there are large differences between the predicted ice sheets for the warm Pliocene (c. 3 million years ago).
F. Parrenin, S. Fujita, A. Abe-Ouchi, K. Kawamura, V. Masson-Delmotte, H. Motoyama, F. Saito, M. Severi, B. Stenni, R. Uemura, and E. Wolff
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-377-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-377-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
I. Hessler, S. P. Harrison, M. Kucera, C. Waelbroeck, M.-T. Chen, C. Anderson, A. de Vernal, B. Fréchette, A. Cloke-Hayes, G. Leduc, and L. Londeix
Clim. Past, 10, 2237–2252, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2237-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2237-2014, 2014
A. E. Jones, N. Brough, P. S. Anderson, and E. W. Wolff
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11843–11851, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11843-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11843-2014, 2014
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We report observations of nitric acid and peroxynitric acid, in coastal Antarctica during winter. During winter, it is dark 24h per day, so there is no influence of sunlight on atmospheric composition. We show that observed variability in concentrations is highly correlated with changes in temperature. We derive enthalpies of adsorption and show they are consistent with those derived in laboratory studies. The Antarctic, during winter, is an ideal natural laboratory to study air-snow exchange.
D. Barbi, G. Lohmann, K. Grosfeld, and M. Thoma
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2003–2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2003-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2003-2014, 2014
H. S. Sundqvist, D. S. Kaufman, N. P. McKay, N. L. Balascio, J. P. Briner, L. C. Cwynar, H. P. Sejrup, H. Seppä, D. A. Subetto, J. T. Andrews, Y. Axford, J. Bakke, H. J. B. Birks, S. J. Brooks, A. de Vernal, A. E. Jennings, F. C. Ljungqvist, K. M. Rühland, C. Saenger, J. P. Smol, and A. E. Viau
Clim. Past, 10, 1605–1631, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1605-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1605-2014, 2014
M. F. Loutre, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, H. Goelzer, and E. Capron
Clim. Past, 10, 1541–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, 2014
M. Heinemann, A. Timmermann, O. Elison Timm, F. Saito, and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 10, 1567–1579, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1567-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1567-2014, 2014
T. Goelles, K. Grosfeld, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1395–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1395-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1395-2014, 2014
P.M. Langebroek and K. H. Nisancioglu
Clim. Past, 10, 1305–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1305-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1305-2014, 2014
J. Seguinot, C. Khroulev, I. Rogozhina, A. P. Stroeven, and Q. Zhang
The Cryosphere, 8, 1087–1103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1087-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1087-2014, 2014
M.-N. Woillez, G. Levavasseur, A.-L. Daniau, M. Kageyama, D. H. Urrego, M.-F. Sánchez-Goñi, and V. Hanquiez
Clim. Past, 10, 1165–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1165-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1165-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
M. Baumgartner, P. Kindler, O. Eicher, G. Floch, A. Schilt, J. Schwander, R. Spahni, E. Capron, J. Chappellaz, M. Leuenberger, H. Fischer, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 10, 903–920, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-903-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-903-2014, 2014
A. Govin, C. M. Chiessi, M. Zabel, A. O. Sawakuchi, D. Heslop, T. Hörner, Y. Zhang, and S. Mulitza
Clim. Past, 10, 843–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-843-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-843-2014, 2014
K. F. Kvale, K. J. Meissner, D. P. Keller, M. Eby, and A. Schmittner
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-7-1709-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-7-1709-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
D. J. Ullman, A. N. LeGrande, A. E. Carlson, F. S. Anslow, and J. M. Licciardi
Clim. Past, 10, 487–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, 2014
E. Gasson, D. J. Lunt, R. DeConto, A. Goldner, M. Heinemann, M. Huber, A. N. LeGrande, D. Pollard, N. Sagoo, M. Siddall, A. Winguth, and P. J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 10, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-451-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-451-2014, 2014
P. Beghin, S. Charbit, C. Dumas, M. Kageyama, D. M. Roche, and C. Ritz
Clim. Past, 10, 345–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-345-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-345-2014, 2014
F. Colleoni, S. Masina, A. Cherchi, A. Navarra, C. Ritz, V. Peyaud, and B. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 10, 269–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-269-2014, 2014
G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 10, 221–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014
A. Basu, M. G. Schultz, S. Schröder, L. Francois, X. Zhang, G. Lohmann, and T. Laepple
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-3193-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-3193-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Lunt, S. J. Hunter, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, C. Stepanek, L. Sohl, N. A. Rosenbloom, W.-L. Chan, Y. Kamae, Z. Zhang, A. Abe-Ouchi, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, G. Lohmann, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 10, 79–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, 2014
L. Menviel, A. Timmermann, T. Friedrich, and M. H. England
Clim. Past, 10, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-63-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-63-2014, 2014
A. M. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. D. Friend, F. Aires, A. T. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. R. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P. O. Hopcroft, C. D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. G. Levine, I. C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vázquez Riveiros, E. W. Wolff, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 10, 8305–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, 2013
P. Scussolini, E. van Sebille, and J. V. Durgadoo
Clim. Past, 9, 2631–2639, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2631-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2631-2013, 2013
H. Fischer, J. Severinghaus, E. Brook, E. Wolff, M. Albert, O. Alemany, R. Arthern, C. Bentley, D. Blankenship, J. Chappellaz, T. Creyts, D. Dahl-Jensen, M. Dinn, M. Frezzotti, S. Fujita, H. Gallee, R. Hindmarsh, D. Hudspeth, G. Jugie, K. Kawamura, V. Lipenkov, H. Miller, R. Mulvaney, F. Parrenin, F. Pattyn, C. Ritz, J. Schwander, D. Steinhage, T. van Ommen, and F. Wilhelms
Clim. Past, 9, 2489–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2489-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2489-2013, 2013
X. Zhang, G. Lohmann, G. Knorr, and X. Xu
Clim. Past, 9, 2319–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, 2013
P. Huszar, H. Teyssèdre, M. Michou, A. Voldoire, D. J. L. Olivié, D. Saint-Martin, D. Cariolle, S. Senesi, D. Salas Y Melia, A. Alias, F. Karcher, P. Ricaud, and T. Halenka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10027–10048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10027-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10027-2013, 2013
C. Marzin, N. Kallel, M. Kageyama, J.-C. Duplessy, and P. Braconnot
Clim. Past, 9, 2135–2151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2135-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2135-2013, 2013
B. Haese, M. Werner, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1463–1480, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1463-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1463-2013, 2013
R. Zhang, Q. Yan, Z. S. Zhang, D. Jiang, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, C. Contoux, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 2085–2099, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, 2013
W. Zheng, Z. Zhang, L. Chen, and Y. Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1127–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1127-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1127-2013, 2013
L. Bazin, A. Landais, B. Lemieux-Dudon, H. Toyé Mahamadou Kele, D. Veres, F. Parrenin, P. Martinerie, C. Ritz, E. Capron, V. Lipenkov, M.-F. Loutre, D. Raynaud, B. Vinther, A. Svensson, S. O. Rasmussen, M. Severi, T. Blunier, M. Leuenberger, H. Fischer, V. Masson-Delmotte, J. Chappellaz, and E. Wolff
Clim. Past, 9, 1715–1731, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1715-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1715-2013, 2013
D. Veres, L. Bazin, A. Landais, H. Toyé Mahamadou Kele, B. Lemieux-Dudon, F. Parrenin, P. Martinerie, E. Blayo, T. Blunier, E. Capron, J. Chappellaz, S. O. Rasmussen, M. Severi, A. Svensson, B. Vinther, and E. W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 9, 1733–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1733-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1733-2013, 2013
K. Saito, T. Sueyoshi, S. Marchenko, V. Romanovsky, B. Otto-Bliesner, J. Walsh, N. Bigelow, A. Hendricks, and K. Yoshikawa
Clim. Past, 9, 1697–1714, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013, 2013
R. O'ishi and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 9, 1571–1587, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, 2013
R. Ohgaito, T. Sueyoshi, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Hajima, S. Watanabe, H.-J. Kim, A. Yamamoto, and M. Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 9, 1519–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, 2013
C. V. Dylmer, J. Giraudeau, F. Eynaud, K. Husum, and A. De Vernal
Clim. Past, 9, 1505–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1505-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1505-2013, 2013
Z.-S. Zhang, K. H. Nisancioglu, M. A. Chandler, A. M. Haywood, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, C. Stepanek, A. Abe-Ouchi, W.-L. Chan, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, A. M. Dolan, D. J. Hill, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. E. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 1495–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, 2013
A. Sima, M. Kageyama, D.-D. Rousseau, G. Ramstein, Y. Balkanski, P. Antoine, and C. Hatté
Clim. Past, 9, 1385–1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1385-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1385-2013, 2013
M. Geyer, D. Salas Y Melia, E. Brun, and M. Dumont
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-7-3163-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-7-3163-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
T. Sueyoshi, R. Ohgaito, A. Yamamoto, M. O. Chikamoto, T. Hajima, H. Okajima, M. Yoshimori, M. Abe, R. O'ishi, F. Saito, S. Watanabe, M. Kawamiya, and A. Abe-Ouchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 819–836, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-819-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-819-2013, 2013
J. A. Collins, A. Govin, S. Mulitza, D. Heslop, M. Zabel, J. Hartmann, U. Röhl, and G. Wefer
Clim. Past, 9, 1181–1191, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1181-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1181-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
E. Capron, A. Landais, D. Buiron, A. Cauquoin, J. Chappellaz, M. Debret, J. Jouzel, M. Leuenberger, P. Martinerie, V. Masson-Delmotte, R. Mulvaney, F. Parrenin, and F. Prié
Clim. Past, 9, 983–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-983-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-983-2013, 2013
N. A. Rosenbloom, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, E. C. Brady, and P. J. Lawrence
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 549–561, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-549-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-549-2013, 2013
S. Charbit, C. Dumas, M. Kageyama, D. M. Roche, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 7, 681–698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-681-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-681-2013, 2013
C. Morrill, A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 9, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, 2013
M. Kageyama, U. Merkel, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Prange, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Lohmann, R. Ohgaito, D. M. Roche, J. Singarayer, D. Swingedouw, and X Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, 2013
C. Giry, T. Felis, M. Kölling, W. Wei, G. Lohmann, and S. Scheffers
Clim. Past, 9, 841–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-841-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-841-2013, 2013
J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-811-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-811-2013, 2013
M. M. Frey, N. Brough, J. L. France, P. S. Anderson, O. Traulle, M. D. King, A. E. Jones, E. W. Wolff, and J. Savarino
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3045–3062, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3045-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3045-2013, 2013
M.-N. Woillez, M. Kageyama, N. Combourieu-Nebout, and G. Krinner
Biogeosciences, 10, 1561–1582, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1561-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1561-2013, 2013
Y. Chavaillaz, F. Codron, and M. Kageyama
Clim. Past, 9, 517–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-517-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-517-2013, 2013
A. Quiquet, C. Ritz, H. J. Punge, and D. Salas y Mélia
Clim. Past, 9, 353–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-353-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-353-2013, 2013
A. E. Jones, E. W. Wolff, N. Brough, S. J.-B. Bauguitte, R. Weller, M. Yela, M. Navarro-Comas, H. A. Ochoa, and N. Theys
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1457–1467, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1457-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1457-2013, 2013
A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, H. J. Dowsett, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. J. Pickering, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, U. Salzmann, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 191–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, 2013
B. Ringeval, P. O. Hopcroft, P. J. Valdes, P. Ciais, G. Ramstein, A. J. Dolman, and M. Kageyama
Clim. Past, 9, 149–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-149-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-149-2013, 2013
G. Lohmann, A. Wackerbarth, P. M. Langebroek, M. Werner, J. Fohlmeister, D. Scholz, and A. Mangini
Clim. Past, 9, 89–98, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-89-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-89-2013, 2013
S. Dietrich, M. Werner, T. Spangehl, and G. Lohmann
Clim. Past, 9, 13–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Pleistocene
Simulated ocean oxygenation during the interglacials MIS 5e and MIS 9e
Rapid communication: Nonlinear sensitivity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation across climate states
A stretched polar vortex increased mid-latitude climate variability during the Last Glacial Maximum
Contrasting the Penultimate Glacial Maximum and the Last Glacial Maximum (140 and 21 ka) using coupled climate–ice sheet modelling
Contrasting responses of summer precipitation to orbital forcing in Japan and China over the past 450 kyr
More is not always better: downscaling climate model outputs from 30 to 5-minute resolution has minimal impact on coherence with Late Quaternary proxies
Investigating similarities and differences of the penultimate and last glacial terminations with a coupled ice sheet–climate model
Last Glacial Maximum climate and atmospheric circulation over the Australian region from climate models
Uncertainties originating from GCM downscaling and bias correction with application to the MIS-11c Greenland Ice Sheet
Surface mass balance and climate of the Last Glacial Maximum Northern Hemisphere ice sheets: simulations with CESM2.1
A transient coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulation of the past 3 million years
Atmosphere–cryosphere interactions during the last phase of the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) in the European Alps
Summer surface air temperature proxies point to near-sea-ice-free conditions in the Arctic at 127 ka
On the importance of moisture conveyor belts from the tropical eastern Pacific for wetter conditions in the Atacama Desert during the mid-Pliocene
Modeled storm surge changes in a warmer world: the Last Interglacial
No changes in overall AMOC strength in interglacial PMIP4 time slices
The role of ice-sheet topography in the Alpine hydro-climate at glacial times
Simulating glacial dust changes in the Southern Hemisphere using ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3
Climate and ice sheet evolutions from the last glacial maximum to the pre-industrial period with an ice-sheet–climate coupled model
The role of land cover in the climate of glacial Europe
Simulated stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum
Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations
Simulating Marine Isotope Stage 7 with a coupled climate–ice sheet model
Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models
An empirical evaluation of bias correction methods for palaeoclimate simulations
Hypersensitivity of glacial summer temperatures in Siberia
Distorted Pacific–North American teleconnection at the Last Glacial Maximum
Understanding the Australian Monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum with a multi-model ensemble
Effect of high dust amount on surface temperature during the Last Glacial Maximum: a modelling study using MIROC-ESM
The role of regional feedbacks in glacial inception on Baffin Island: the interaction of ice flow and meteorology
Quantifying the influence of the terrestrial biosphere on glacial–interglacial climate dynamics
Intra-interglacial climate variability: model simulations of Marine Isotope Stages 1, 5, 11, 13, and 15
A GCM comparison of Pleistocene super-interglacial periods in relation to Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Arctic Russia
Global sensitivity analysis of the Indian monsoon during the Pleistocene
Interaction of ice sheets and climate during the past 800 000 years
Simulating last interglacial climate with NorESM: role of insolation and greenhouse gases in the timing of peak warmth
Impact of geomagnetic excursions on atmospheric chemistry and dynamics
Assessing the impact of Laurentide Ice Sheet topography on glacial climate
Interdependence of the growth of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glaciation: the role of atmospheric circulation
Different ocean states and transient characteristics in Last Glacial Maximum simulations and implications for deglaciation
Why could ice ages be unpredictable?
Assessing the impact of late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions on global vegetation and climate
The last interglacial (Eemian) climate simulated by LOVECLIM and CCSM3
LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?
Tropical vegetation response to Heinrich Event 1 as simulated with the UVic ESCM and CCSM3
Influence of Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions on the global water isotope distribution in an atmospheric general circulation model
A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum
Modelling snow accumulation on Greenland in Eemian, glacial inception, and modern climates in a GCM
Modelling large-scale ice-sheet–climate interactions following glacial inception
Sensitivity of the North Atlantic climate to Greenland Ice Sheet melting during the Last Interglacial
Bartholomé Duboc, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Babette Hoogakker, Tilo Ziehn, and Matthew Chamberlain
Clim. Past, 21, 1093–1122, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1093-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1093-2025, 2025
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We use an earth system model to simulate ocean oxygen during two past warm periods, the Last Interglacial (∼ 129–115 ka) and Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 9e (∼ 336–321 ka). The global ocean is overall less oxygenated compared to the preindustrial simulation. Large regions in the Mediterranean Sea are oxygen deprived in the Last Interglacial simulation, and to a lesser extent in the MIS 9e simulation, due to an intensification and expansion of the African monsoon and enhanced river runoff.
Gabriel M. Pontes, Pedro L. da Silva Dias, and Laurie Menviel
Clim. Past, 21, 1079–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1079-2025, 2025
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El Niño events are the main drivers of year-to-year climate variability. Understanding how El Niño activity is affected by different climate states is of great relevance to agriculture, water, ecosystem, and climate risk management. Through analysis of past and future climate simulations, we show that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sensitivity to mean state changes is nonlinear and, to some extent, shaped by atmospheric CO2 levels.
Yurui Zhang, Hans Renssen, Heikki Seppä, Zhen Li, and Xingrui Li
Clim. Past, 21, 67–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-67-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-67-2025, 2025
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The upper and lower atmospheres interact. The polar regions, with high-speed, cyclonically rotating winds, provide a window through which upper winds affect surface weather and climate variability. By analysing climate model results, we found that ice sheets induced anomalous upward wave propagation and stretched the rotating winds towards North America, increasing the likelihood of cold-air outbreaks at the mid-latitudes. This accounts for the enhanced winter cooling at these latitudes.
Violet L. Patterson, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Owen, Robin S. Smith, Oliver G. Pollard, Lachlan C. Astfalck, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 2191–2218, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024, 2024
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Simulations of the last two glacial periods are run using a computer model in which the atmosphere and ice sheets interact. The results show that the initial conditions used in the simulations are the primary reason for the difference in simulated North American ice sheet volume between each period. Thus, the climate leading up to the glacial maxima and other factors, such as vegetation, are important contributors to the differences in the ice sheets at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima.
Taiga Matsushita, Mariko Harada, Hiroaki Ueda, Takeshi Nakagawa, Yoshimi Kubota, Yoshiaki Suzuki, and Youichi Kamae
Clim. Past, 20, 2017–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2017-2024, 2024
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We present a climate simulation using version 2.3 of the Meteorological Research Institute's Coupled General Circulation Model (MRI-CGCM2.3) to examine the impact of insolation changes on East Asian summer monsoon variability over the past 450 kyr. We show that changes in summer insolation over East Asia led to distinct climatic responses in China and Japan, driven by altered atmospheric circulation due to the intensification of the North Pacific subtropical high and the North Pacific High.
Lucy Timbrell, James Blinkhorn, Margherita Colucci, Michela Leonardi, Manuel Chevalier, Matt Grove, Eleanor Scerri, and Andrea Manica
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-53, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-53, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
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Scientists study past climate change using proxies (e.g. pollen) and models. Proxies offer detailed snapshots but are limited in number, while models provide broad coverage but at low resolution. Typically, models are downscaled to 30 arc-minutes, but it’s unclear if this is sufficient. We found that increasing models to 5 arc-minutes does not improve their coherence with climate reconstructed from pollen data. Optimal model resolution depends on research needs, balancing detail with error.
Aurélien Quiquet and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 20, 1365–1385, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1365-2024, 2024
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In this work, we use the same experimental protocol to simulate the last two glacial terminations with a coupled ice sheet–climate model. Major differences among the two terminations are that the ice sheets retreat earlier and the Atlantic oceanic circulation is more prone to collapse during the penultimate termination. However, for both terminations the pattern of ice retreat is similar, and this retreat is primarily explained by orbital forcing changes and greenhouse gas concentration changes.
Yanxuan Du, Josephine R. Brown, and J. M. Kale Sniderman
Clim. Past, 20, 393–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-393-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-393-2024, 2024
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This study provides insights into regional Australian climate variations (temperature, precipitation, wind, and atmospheric circulation) during the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 kyr ago) and the interconnections between climate variables in different seasons from climate model simulations. Model results are evaluated and compared with available palaeoclimate proxy records. Results show model responses diverge widely in both the tropics and mid-latitudes in the Australian region.
Brian R. Crow, Lev Tarasov, Michael Schulz, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 20, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, 2024
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An abnormally warm period around 400,000 years ago is thought to have resulted in a large melt event for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using a sequence of climate model simulations connected to an ice model, we estimate a 50 % melt of Greenland compared to today. Importantly, we explore how the exact methodology of connecting the temperatures and precipitation from the climate model to the ice sheet model can influence these results and show that common methods could introduce errors.
Sarah L. Bradley, Raymond Sellevold, Michele Petrini, Miren Vizcaino, Sotiria Georgiou, Jiang Zhu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Marcus Lofverstrom
Clim. Past, 20, 211–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, 2024
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was the most recent period with large ice sheets in Europe and North America. We provide a detailed analysis of surface mass and energy components for two time periods that bracket the LGM: 26 and 21 ka BP. We use an earth system model which has been adopted for modern ice sheets. We find that all Northern Hemisphere ice sheets have a positive surface mass balance apart from the British and Irish ice sheets and the North American ice sheet complex.
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, and Jyoti Jadhav
Clim. Past, 19, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, 2023
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To quantify the sensitivity of the earth system to orbital-scale forcings, we conducted an unprecedented quasi-continuous coupled general climate model simulation with the Community Earth System Model, which covers the climatic history of the past 3 million years. This study could stimulate future transient paleo-climate model simulations and perspectives to further highlight and document the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the broader paleo-climatic context.
Costanza Del Gobbo, Renato R. Colucci, Giovanni Monegato, Manja Žebre, and Filippo Giorgi
Clim. Past, 19, 1805–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1805-2023, 2023
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We studied atmosphere–cryosphere interaction during the last phase of the Last Glacial Maximum in the Alpine region, using a high-resolution regional climate model. We analysed the climate south and north of the Alps, using a detailed map of the Alpine equilibrium line altitude (ELA) to study the mechanism that sustained the Alpine glaciers at 21 ka. The Genoa low and a mild Mediterranean Sea led to frequent snowfall in the southern Alps, thus preserving the glaciers and lowering the ELA.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Vallet-Malmierca, Agatha M. de Boer, and Marie Sicard
Clim. Past, 19, 883–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, 2023
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It is not known if the Last Interglacial (LIG) experienced Arctic summers that were sea ice free: models show a wide spread in LIG Arctic temperature and sea ice results. Evaluation against sea ice markers is hampered by few observations. Here, an assessment of 11 climate model simulations against summer temperatures shows that the most skilful models have a 74 %–79 % reduction in LIG sea ice. The measurements of LIG areas indicate a likely mix of ice-free and near-ice-free LIG summers.
Mark Reyers, Stephanie Fiedler, Patrick Ludwig, Christoph Böhm, Volker Wennrich, and Yaping Shao
Clim. Past, 19, 517–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, 2023
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In this study we performed high-resolution climate model simulations for the hyper-arid Atacama Desert for the mid-Pliocene (3.2 Ma). The aim is to uncover the atmospheric processes that are involved in the enhancement of strong rainfall events during this period. We find that strong upper-level moisture fluxes (so-called moisture conveyor belts) originating in the tropical eastern Pacific are the main driver for increased rainfall in the mid-Pliocene.
Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
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We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Zhiyi Jiang, Chris Brierley, David Thornalley, and Sophie Sax
Clim. Past, 19, 107–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-107-2023, 2023
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This work looks at a series of model simulations of two past warm climates. We focus on the deep overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. We show that there are no robust changes in the overall strength of the circulation. We also show that the circulation hardly plays a role in changes in the surface climate across the globe.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, 2022
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We investigate the sensitivity of the glacial Alpine hydro-climate to northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet changes. We perform sensitivity simulations of up to 2 km horizontal resolution over the Alps for glacial periods. The findings demonstrate that northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet topography are important role in regulating the Alpine hydro-climate and permits a better understanding of the Alpine precipitation patterns at glacial times.
Stephan Krätschmer, Michèlle van der Does, Frank Lamy, Gerrit Lohmann, Christoph Völker, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 18, 67–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, 2022
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We use an atmospheric model coupled to an aerosol model to investigate the global mineral dust cycle with a focus on the Southern Hemisphere for warmer and colder climate states and compare our results to observational data. Our findings suggest that Australia is the predominant source of dust deposited over Antarctica during the last glacial maximum. In addition, we find that the southward transport of dust from all sources to Antarctica happens at lower altitudes in colder climates.
Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Christophe Dumas, Nathaëlle Bouttes, and Fanny Lhardy
Clim. Past, 17, 2179–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, 2021
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In this paper we discuss results obtained with a set of coupled ice-sheet–climate model experiments for the last 26 kyrs. The model displays a large sensitivity of the oceanic circulation to the amount of the freshwater flux resulting from ice sheet melting. Ice sheet geometry changes alone are not enough to lead to abrupt climate events, and rapid warming at high latitudes is here only reported during abrupt oceanic circulation recoveries that occurred when accounting for freshwater flux.
Patricio Velasquez, Jed O. Kaplan, Martina Messmer, Patrick Ludwig, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 1161–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, 2021
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This study assesses the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks for European climate. We performed an asynchronously coupled experiment that combined a global climate model (~ 100 km), a regional climate model (18 km), and a dynamic vegetation model (18 km). Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. The regional climate is significantly influenced by land cover.
Frerk Pöppelmeier, Jeemijn Scheen, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 17, 615–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-615-2021, 2021
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The stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) critically depends on its mean state. We simulate the response of the AMOC to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations under different glacial boundary conditions. We find that a closed Bering Strait greatly increases the AMOC's sensitivity to freshwater hosing. Further, the shift from mono- to bistability strongly depends on the chosen boundary conditions, with weaker circulation states exhibiting more abrupt transitions.
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020
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The simulations for the past climate can inform us about the performance of climate models in different climate scenarios. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), when the CO2 level was comparable to today. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in the model simulations and imply that we must be careful when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
Dipayan Choudhury, Axel Timmermann, Fabian Schloesser, Malte Heinemann, and David Pollard
Clim. Past, 16, 2183–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2183-2020, 2020
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Our study is the first study to conduct transient simulations over MIS 7, using a 3-D coupled climate–ice sheet model with interactive ice sheets in both hemispheres. We find glacial inceptions to be more sensitive to orbital variations, whereas glacial terminations need the concerted action of both orbital and CO2 forcings. We highlight the issue of multiple equilibria and an instability due to stationary-wave–topography feedback that can trigger unrealistic North American ice sheet growth.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Robert Beyer, Mario Krapp, and Andrea Manica
Clim. Past, 16, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1493-2020, 2020
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Even the most sophisticated global climate models are known to have significant biases in the way they simulate the climate system. Correcting model biases is therefore essential for creating realistic reconstructions of past climate that can be used, for example, to study long-term ecological dynamics. Here, we evaluated three widely used bias correction methods by means of a global dataset of empirical temperature and precipitation records from the last 125 000 years.
Pepijn Bakker, Irina Rogozhina, Ute Merkel, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 16, 371–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-371-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-371-2020, 2020
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Northeastern Siberia is currently known for its harsh cold climate, but remarkably it did not experience large-scale glaciation during the last ice age. We show that the region is also exceptional in climate models. As a result of subtle changes in model setup, climate models show a strong divergence in simulated glacial summer temperatures that is ultimately driven by changes in the circumpolar atmospheric stationary wave pattern and associated northward heat transport to northeastern Siberia.
Yongyun Hu, Yan Xia, Zhengyu Liu, Yuchen Wang, Zhengyao Lu, and Tao Wang
Clim. Past, 16, 199–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-199-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-199-2020, 2020
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The paper shows, using climate simulations, that the Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection was distorted or completely broken at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The results suggest that ENSO would have little direct impact on North American climates at the LGM.
Mi Yan, Bin Wang, Jian Liu, Axing Zhu, Liang Ning, and Jian Cao
Clim. Past, 14, 2037–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2037-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2037-2018, 2018
Rumi Ohgaito, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Ryouta O'ishi, Toshihiko Takemura, Akinori Ito, Tomohiro Hajima, Shingo Watanabe, and Michio Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 14, 1565–1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1565-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1565-2018, 2018
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The behaviour of dust in terms of climate can be investigated using past climate. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21000 years before present) is known to be dustier. We investigated the impact of plausible dust distribution on the climate of the LGM using an Earth system model and found that the higher dust load results in less cooling over the polar regions. The main finding is that radiative perturbation by the high dust loading does not necessarily cool the surface surrounding Antarctica.
Leah Birch, Timothy Cronin, and Eli Tziperman
Clim. Past, 14, 1441–1462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1441-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1441-2018, 2018
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We investigate the regional dynamics at the beginning of the last ice age, using a nested configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a simple ice flow model. We find that ice sheet height causes a negative feedback on continued ice growth by interacting with the atmospheric circulation, causing warming on Baffin Island, and inhibiting the initiation of the last ice age. We conclude that processes at larger scales are needed to overcome the regional warming effect.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Andy Ridgwell, Joy Singarayer, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 13, 1381–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1381-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1381-2017, 2017
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We present the first model analysis using a fully coupled dynamic atmosphere–ocean–vegetation GCM over the last 120 kyr that quantifies the net effect of vegetation on climate. This analysis shows that over the whole period the biogeophysical effect (albedo, evapotranspiration) is dominant, and that the biogeochemical impacts may have a lower possible range than typically estimated. This emphasises the temporal reliance of the balance between biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects.
Rima Rachmayani, Matthias Prange, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 12, 677–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-677-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-677-2016, 2016
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A set of 13 interglacial time slice experiments was carried out using a CCSM3-DGVM to study global climate variability between and within the Quaternary interglaciations of MIS 1, 5, 11, 13, and 15. Seasonal surface temperature anomalies can be explained by local insolation anomalies induced by the astronomical forcing in most regions and by GHG forcing at high latitudes and early Bruhnes interglacials. However, climate feedbacks may modify the surface temperature response in specific regions.
A. J. Coletti, R. M. DeConto, J. Brigham-Grette, and M. Melles
Clim. Past, 11, 979–989, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-979-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-979-2015, 2015
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Evidence from Pleistocene sediments suggest that the Arctic's climate went through multiple sudden transitions, warming by 2-4 °C (compared to preindustrial times), and stayed warm for hundreds to thousands of years. A climate modelling study of these events suggests that the Arctic's climate and landscape drastically changed, transforming a cold and barren landscape as we know today to a warm, lush, evergreen and boreal forest landscape only seen in the modern midlatitudes.
P. A. Araya-Melo, M. Crucifix, and N. Bounceur
Clim. Past, 11, 45–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-45-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-45-2015, 2015
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By using a statistical tool termed emulator, we study the sensitivity of the Indian monsoon during the the Pleistocene. The originality of the present work is to consider, as inputs, several elements of the climate forcing that have varied in the past, and then use the emulator as a method to quantify the link between forcing variability and climate variability. The methodology described here may naturally be applied to other regions of interest.
L. B. Stap, R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, R. Bintanja, and L. J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 10, 2135–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, 2014
P.M. Langebroek and K. H. Nisancioglu
Clim. Past, 10, 1305–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1305-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1305-2014, 2014
I. Suter, R. Zech, J. G. Anet, and T. Peter
Clim. Past, 10, 1183–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1183-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1183-2014, 2014
D. J. Ullman, A. N. LeGrande, A. E. Carlson, F. S. Anslow, and J. M. Licciardi
Clim. Past, 10, 487–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, 2014
P. Beghin, S. Charbit, C. Dumas, M. Kageyama, D. M. Roche, and C. Ritz
Clim. Past, 10, 345–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-345-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-345-2014, 2014
X. Zhang, G. Lohmann, G. Knorr, and X. Xu
Clim. Past, 9, 2319–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, 2013
M. Crucifix
Clim. Past, 9, 2253–2267, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2253-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2253-2013, 2013
M.-O. Brault, L. A. Mysak, H. D. Matthews, and C. T. Simmons
Clim. Past, 9, 1761–1771, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1761-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1761-2013, 2013
I. Nikolova, Q. Yin, A. Berger, U. K. Singh, and M. P. Karami
Clim. Past, 9, 1789–1806, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1789-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1789-2013, 2013
K. Saito, T. Sueyoshi, S. Marchenko, V. Romanovsky, B. Otto-Bliesner, J. Walsh, N. Bigelow, A. Hendricks, and K. Yoshikawa
Clim. Past, 9, 1697–1714, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013, 2013
D. Handiani, A. Paul, M. Prange, U. Merkel, L. Dupont, and X. Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 1683–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1683-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1683-2013, 2013
T. Tharammal, A. Paul, U. Merkel, and D. Noone
Clim. Past, 9, 789–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-789-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-789-2013, 2013
J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves
Clim. Past, 9, 367–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-367-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-367-2013, 2013
H. J. Punge, H. Gallée, M. Kageyama, and G. Krinner
Clim. Past, 8, 1801–1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1801-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1801-2012, 2012
J. M. Gregory, O. J. H. Browne, A. J. Payne, J. K. Ridley, and I. C. Rutt
Clim. Past, 8, 1565–1580, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1565-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1565-2012, 2012
P. Bakker, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, and H. Renssen
Clim. Past, 8, 995–1009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-995-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-995-2012, 2012
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Short summary
The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to...
