the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP
James Douglas Annan
Julia Catherine Hargreaves
Navjit Sagoo
Clare Flynn
Marie-Luise Kapsch
Gerrit Lohmann
Uwe Mikolajewicz
Rumi Ohgaito
Xiaoxu Shi
Qiong Zhang
Thorsten Mauritsen
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For 1 century, the hemispheric summer insolation is proposed as a key pacemaker of astronomical climate change. However, an increasing number of geologic records reveal that the low-latitude hydrological cycle shows asynchronous precessional evolutions that are very often out of phase with the summer insolation. Here, we propose that the astronomically driven low-latitude hydrological cycle is not paced by summer insolation but by shifting perihelion.
Our study examines the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a period with higher tidal dissipation. Despite increased tidal mixing, our model simulations show that the AMOC remained relatively shallow, consistent with paleoproxy data and resolving previous inconsistencies between proxy data and model simulations. This research highlights the importance of strong ocean stratification during the LGM and its interaction with tidal mixing.
hottest20 % of parcels.
optimisticmodel in projecting future climate change among ESMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6.
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