Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Clim. Past, 16, 1715–1735, 2020

Special issue: Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4)...

Clim. Past, 16, 1715–1735, 2020

Research article 10 Sep 2020

Research article | 10 Sep 2020

A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP

Martin Renoult et al.

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Cited articles

Aldrin, M., Holden, M., Guttorp, P., Skeie, R. B., Myhre, G., and Berntsen, T. K.: Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations of hemispheric temperatures and global ocean heat content, Environmetrics, 23, 253–271, 2012. a, b
Allen, M. and Ingram, W.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 224–232, 2002. a
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09712,, 2012. a, b, c, d, e, f
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity, Climatic Change, 104, 423–436, 2011. a, b
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum, Clim. Past, 9, 367–376,, 2013. a, b, c, d, e

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Short summary
Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent years. In particular, studies of the warm mid-Pliocene and cold Last Glacial Maximum showed relationships between the tropical surface temperature of the Earth and its sensitivity to an abrupt doubling of atmospheric CO2. In this study, we develop a new and promising statistical method and obtain similar results as previously observed, wherein the sensitivity does not seem to exceed extreme values.