Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
10 Sep 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 10 Sep 2020

A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP

Martin Renoult, James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Navjit Sagoo, Clare Flynn, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Qiong Zhang, and Thorsten Mauritsen

Related authors

Observation-inferred resilience loss of the Amazon rain forest possibly due to internal climate variability
Raphael Grodofzig, Martin Renoult, and Thorsten Mauritsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2734,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2734, 2023
Short summary
Causes of the weak emergent constraint on climate sensitivity at the Last Glacial Maximum
Martin Renoult, Navjit Sagoo, Jiang Zhu, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 19, 323–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023, 2023
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Millenial/D-O
High resolution LGM climate over Europe and the Alpine region using the regional climate model WRF
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph Raible
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1197,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1197, 2023
Short summary
Causes of the weak emergent constraint on climate sensitivity at the Last Glacial Maximum
Martin Renoult, Navjit Sagoo, Jiang Zhu, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 19, 323–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023, 2023
Short summary
Does a difference in ice sheets between Marine Isotope Stages 3 and 5a affect the duration of stadials? Implications from hosing experiments
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Akira Oka, Takahito Mitsui, and Fuyuki Saito
Clim. Past, 17, 1919–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, 2021
Short summary
Impact of mid-glacial ice sheets on deep ocean circulation and global climate
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Akira Oka
Clim. Past, 17, 95–110, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-95-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-95-2021, 2021
Short summary
Equilibrium simulations of Marine Isotope Stage 3 climate
Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Mats Bentsen, Ingo Bethke, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 15, 1133–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1133-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1133-2019, 2019
Short summary

Cited articles

Aldrin, M., Holden, M., Guttorp, P., Skeie, R. B., Myhre, G., and Berntsen, T. K.: Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations of hemispheric temperatures and global ocean heat content, Environmetrics, 23, 253–271, 2012. a, b
Allen, M. and Ingram, W.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 224–232, 2002. a
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09712, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051607, 2012. a, b, c, d, e, f
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity, Climatic Change, 104, 423–436, 2011. a, b
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum, Clim. Past, 9, 367–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-367-2013, 2013. a, b, c, d, e
Download

The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article.

Short summary
Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent years. In particular, studies of the warm mid-Pliocene and cold Last Glacial Maximum showed relationships between the tropical surface temperature of the Earth and its sensitivity to an abrupt doubling of atmospheric CO2. In this study, we develop a new and promising statistical method and obtain similar results as previously observed, wherein the sensitivity does not seem to exceed extreme values.