Climate of the Past
Climate of the Past
CP
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Research article
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 | 
10 Sep 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 10 Sep 2020

A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP

Martin Renoult, James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Navjit Sagoo, Clare Flynn, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Qiong Zhang, and Thorsten Mauritsen

Model code and software

"A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP": Python and R statistical scripts of the study M. Renoult and J. D. Annan https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3928315

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Short summary
Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent years. In particular, studies of the warm mid-Pliocene and cold Last Glacial Maximum showed relationships between the tropical surface temperature of the Earth and its sensitivity to an abrupt doubling of atmospheric CO2. In this study, we develop a new and promising statistical method and obtain similar results as previously observed, wherein the sensitivity does not seem to exceed extreme values.
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Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4)...