Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Research article
 | Highlight paper
10 Sep 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 10 Sep 2020

A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP

Martin Renoult, James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Navjit Sagoo, Clare Flynn, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Qiong Zhang, and Thorsten Mauritsen


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Latest update: 31 Mar 2023

The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article.

Short summary
Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent years. In particular, studies of the warm mid-Pliocene and cold Last Glacial Maximum showed relationships between the tropical surface temperature of the Earth and its sensitivity to an abrupt doubling of atmospheric CO2. In this study, we develop a new and promising statistical method and obtain similar results as previously observed, wherein the sensitivity does not seem to exceed extreme values.