Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
10 Sep 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 10 Sep 2020
| 10 Sep 2020
A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP
Department of Meteorology, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
James Douglas Annan
Blue Skies Research Ltd, Settle, United Kingdom
Julia Catherine Hargreaves
Blue Skies Research Ltd, Settle, United Kingdom
Navjit Sagoo
Department of Meteorology, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Clare Flynn
Department of Meteorology, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Marie-Luise Kapsch
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Gerrit Lohmann
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Uwe Mikolajewicz
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Rumi Ohgaito
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
Xiaoxu Shi
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Qiong Zhang
Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Thorsten Mauritsen
Department of Meteorology, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Amplified surface warming in the south-west Pacific during the mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma) and future implications G. Grant et al. 10.5194/cp-19-1359-2023
- Neutral Tropical African CO2 Exchange Estimated From Aircraft and Satellite Observations B. Gaubert et al. 10.1029/2023GB007804
- The PMIP4 Last Glacial Maximum experiments: preliminary results and comparison with the PMIP3 simulations M. Kageyama et al. 10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021
- Opinion: Can uncertainty in climate sensitivity be narrowed further? S. Sherwood & C. Forest 10.5194/acp-24-2679-2024
- Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities M. Williamson et al. 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.025004
- Causes of the weak emergent constraint on climate sensitivity at the Last Glacial Maximum M. Renoult et al. 10.5194/cp-19-323-2023
- Unraveling the complexities of the Last Glacial Maximum climate: the role of individual boundary conditions and forcings X. Shi et al. 10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023
- The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints B. Sanderson et al. 10.5194/esd-12-899-2021
- Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework L. Brunner et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0953.1
- PMIP4 experiments using MIROC-ES2L Earth system model R. Ohgaito et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-1195-2021
- Simulating Miocene Warmth: Insights From an Opportunistic Multi‐Model Ensemble (MioMIP1) N. Burls et al. 10.1029/2020PA004054
- Emergent Constraints on the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Regional Hydroclimate: Do They Still Work in CMIP6 and How Much Can They Actually Constrain the Future? I. Simpson et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0055.1
- Machine learning of cloud types in satellite observations and climate models P. Kuma et al. 10.5194/acp-23-523-2023
- Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6? M. Schlund et al. 10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020
- Emergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models F. Nijsse et al. 10.5194/esd-11-737-2020
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Amplified surface warming in the south-west Pacific during the mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma) and future implications G. Grant et al. 10.5194/cp-19-1359-2023
- Neutral Tropical African CO2 Exchange Estimated From Aircraft and Satellite Observations B. Gaubert et al. 10.1029/2023GB007804
- The PMIP4 Last Glacial Maximum experiments: preliminary results and comparison with the PMIP3 simulations M. Kageyama et al. 10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021
- Opinion: Can uncertainty in climate sensitivity be narrowed further? S. Sherwood & C. Forest 10.5194/acp-24-2679-2024
- Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities M. Williamson et al. 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.025004
- Causes of the weak emergent constraint on climate sensitivity at the Last Glacial Maximum M. Renoult et al. 10.5194/cp-19-323-2023
- Unraveling the complexities of the Last Glacial Maximum climate: the role of individual boundary conditions and forcings X. Shi et al. 10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023
- The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints B. Sanderson et al. 10.5194/esd-12-899-2021
- Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework L. Brunner et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0953.1
- PMIP4 experiments using MIROC-ES2L Earth system model R. Ohgaito et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-1195-2021
- Simulating Miocene Warmth: Insights From an Opportunistic Multi‐Model Ensemble (MioMIP1) N. Burls et al. 10.1029/2020PA004054
- Emergent Constraints on the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Regional Hydroclimate: Do They Still Work in CMIP6 and How Much Can They Actually Constrain the Future? I. Simpson et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0055.1
- Machine learning of cloud types in satellite observations and climate models P. Kuma et al. 10.5194/acp-23-523-2023
- Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6? M. Schlund et al. 10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020
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Short summary
Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent years. In particular, studies of the warm mid-Pliocene and cold Last Glacial Maximum showed relationships between the tropical surface temperature of the Earth and its sensitivity to an abrupt doubling of atmospheric CO2. In this study, we develop a new and promising statistical method and obtain similar results as previously observed, wherein the sensitivity does not seem to exceed extreme values.
Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent...
