Articles | Volume 10, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-437-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-437-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Mar 2014
Research article |
| 11 Mar 2014
Forward modelling of tree-ring width and comparison with a global network of tree-ring chronologies
P. Breitenmoser
Institute of Geography, Climatology and Meteorology, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
S. Brönnimann
Institute of Geography, Climatology and Meteorology, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
D. Frank
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
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Richard Warren, Niklaus Emanuel Bartlome, Noémie Wellinger, Jörg Franke, Ralf Hand, Stefan Brönnimann, and Heli Huhtamaa
Clim. Past, 20, 2645–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2645-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2645-2024, 2024
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This paper introduces the ClimeApp web application. The app provides quick access to the ModE-RA global climate reanalysis. Users can calculate and plot anomalies, composites, correlations, regressions and annual cycles across three different datasets and four climate variables. By re-examining the 1815 Tambora eruption, we demonstrate how combining results from different datasets and sources can help us investigate the historical palaeoclimate and integrate it into human history.
Nicolas Duque-Gardeazabal, Andrew R. Friedman, and Stefan Brönnimann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2846, 2024
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Understanding hydrological variability is essential for ecological conservation and sustainable development. Evapotranspiration influences the carbon cycle, finding what causes its variability is important for ecosystems. This study shows that not only El Niño – ENSO influences South America’s rainfall and evaporation, but also other phenomena in the Atlantic Ocean. The impacts change depending on the season, impacting the Amazon and Orinoco basins.
Peter Stucki, Lucas Pfister, Yuri Brugnara, Renate Varga, Chantal Hari, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 20, 2327–2348, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2327-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2327-2024, 2024
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In our work, we reconstruct the weather of the extremely cold and wet summer in 1816 using a weather forecasting model to obtain high-resolution, three-dimensional weather simulations. We refine our simulations with surface pressure and temperature observations, representing a novel approach for this period. Our results show that this approach yields detailed and accurate weather reconstructions, opening the door to analyzing past weather events and their impacts in detail.
Stefan Brönnimann, Janusz Filipiak, Siyu Chen, and Lucas Pfister
Clim. Past, 20, 2219–2235, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2219-2024, 2024
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The year 1740 was the coldest in central Europe since at least 1421. New monthly global climate reconstructions, together with daily weather reconstructions, allow a detailed view of this climatic event. Following several severe cold spells in January and February, a persistent circulation pattern with blocking over the British Isles caused northerly flow towards western Europe during a large part of the year. It was one of the strongest, arguably unforced excursions in European temperature.
Christian Pfister, Stefan Brönnimann, Andres Altwegg, Rudolf Brázdil, Laurent Litzenburger, Daniele Lorusso, and Thomas Pliemon
Clim. Past, 20, 1387–1399, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1387-2024, 2024
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This bottle of Riesling from the traditional Bassermann Jordan winery in Deidesheim (Germany) is a relic of the premium wine harvested in 1811. It was named “Comet Wine” after the bright comet that year. The study shows that wine quality can be used to infer summer weather conditions over the past 600 years. After rainy summers with cold winds, wines turned sour, while long periods of high pressure led to excellent qualities. Since 1990, only good wines have been produced due to rapid warming.
Lucas Pfister, Lena Wilhelm, Yuri Brugnara, Noemi Imfeld, and Stefan Brönnimann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1346, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1346, 2024
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Our work compares different machine learning approaches for creating long-term classifications of daily atmospheric circulation patterns using input data from surface meteorological observations. Our comparison reveals a so-called feedforward neural network to perform best in this task. Using this model, we present a daily reconstruction of the CAP9 weather type classification for Central Europe back to 1728.
Stefan Brönnimann, Yuri Brugnara, and Clive Wilkinson
Clim. Past, 20, 757–767, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-757-2024, 2024
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The early 20th century warming – the first phase of global warming in the 20th century – started from a peculiar cold state around 1910. We digitised additional ship logbooks for these years to study this specific climate state and found that it is real and likely an overlap of several climatic anomalies, including oceanic variability (La Niña) and volcanic eruptions.
Noemi Imfeld, Koen Hufkens, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 20, 659–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-659-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-659-2024, 2024
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Climate and weather in spring are important because they can have far-reaching impacts, e.g. on plant growth, due to cold spells. Here, we study changes in climate and phenological indices for the period from 1763 to 2020 based on newly published reconstructed fields of daily temperature and precipitation for Switzerland. We look at three cases of extreme spring conditions, namely a warm spring in 1862, two frost events in 1873 and 1957, and three cold springs in 1785, 1837, and 1852.
Eric Samakinwa, Christoph C. Raible, Ralf Hand, Andrew R. Friedman, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-67, 2023
Publication in CP not foreseen
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In this study, we nudged a stand-alone ocean model MPI-OM to proxy-reconstructed SST. Based on these model simulations, we introduce new estimates of the AMOC variations during the period 1450–1780 through a 10-member ensemble simulation with a novel nudging technique. Our approach reaffirms the known mechanisms of AMOC variability and also improves existing knowledge of the interplay between the AMOC and the NAO during the AMOC's weak and strong phases.
Ralf Hand, Eric Samakinwa, Laura Lipfert, and Stefan Brönnimann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4853–4866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4853-2023, 2023
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ModE-Sim is an ensemble of simulations with an atmosphere model. It uses observed sea surface temperatures, sea ice conditions, and volcanic aerosols for 1420 to 2009 as model input while accounting for uncertainties in these conditions. This generates several representations of the possible climate given these preconditions. Such a setup can be useful to understand the mechanisms that contribute to climate variability. This paper describes the setup of ModE-Sim and evaluates its performance.
Stefan Brönnimann and Yuri Brugnara
Clim. Past, 19, 1435–1445, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1435-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1435-2023, 2023
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We present the weather diaries of the Kirch family from 1677–1774 containing weather observations made in Leipzig and Guben and, from 1701 onward, instrumental observations made in Berlin. We publish the imaged diaries (10 445 images) and the digitized measurements (from 1720 onward). This is one of the oldest and longest meteorological records from Germany. The digitized pressure data show good agreement with neighbouring stations, highlighting their potential for weather reconstruction.
Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 19, 1345–1357, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1345-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1345-2023, 2023
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Weather reconstructions could help us to better understand the mechanisms leading to, and the impacts caused by, climatic changes. This requires daily weather information such as diaries. Here I present the weather diary by Georg Christoph Eimmart from Nuremberg covering the period 1695–1704. This was a particularly cold period in Europe, and the diary helps to better characterize this climatic anomaly.
Noemi Imfeld, Lucas Pfister, Yuri Brugnara, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 19, 703–729, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-703-2023, 2023
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Climate reconstructions give insights into monthly and seasonal climate variability of the past few hundred years. However, to understand past extreme weather events and to relate them to impacts, for example to periods of extreme floods, reconstructions on a daily timescale are needed. Here, we present a reconstruction of 258 years of high-resolution daily temperature and precipitation fields for Switzerland covering the period 1763 to 2020, which is based on instrumental measurements.
Moritz Buchmann, Gernot Resch, Michael Begert, Stefan Brönnimann, Barbara Chimani, Wolfgang Schöner, and Christoph Marty
The Cryosphere, 17, 653–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-653-2023, 2023
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Our current knowledge of spatial and temporal snow depth trends is based almost exclusively on time series of non-homogenised observational data. However, like other long-term series from observations, they are susceptible to inhomogeneities that can affect the trends and even change the sign. To assess the relevance of homogenisation for daily snow depths, we investigated its impact on trends and changes in extreme values of snow indices between 1961 and 2021 in the Swiss observation network.
Jianquan Dong, Stefan Brönnimann, Tao Hu, Yanxu Liu, and Jian Peng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5651–5664, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5651-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5651-2022, 2022
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We produced a new dataset of global station-based daily maximum wet-bulb temperature (GSDM-WBT) through the calculation of wet-bulb temperature, data quality control, infilling missing values, and homogenization. The GSDM-WBT covers the complete daily series of 1834 stations from 1981 to 2020. The GSDM-WBT dataset handles stations with many missing values and possible inhomogeneities, which could better support the studies on global and regional humid heat events.
Duncan Pappert, Mariano Barriendos, Yuri Brugnara, Noemi Imfeld, Sylvie Jourdain, Rajmund Przybylak, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 18, 2545–2565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2545-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2545-2022, 2022
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We present daily temperature and sea level pressure fields for Europe for the severe winter 1788/1789 based on historical meteorological measurements and an analogue reconstruction approach. The resulting reconstruction skilfully reproduces temperature and pressure variations over central and western Europe. We find intense blocking systems over northern Europe and several abrupt, strong cold air outbreaks, demonstrating that quantitative weather reconstruction of past extremes is possible.
Chantal Camenisch, Fernando Jaume-Santero, Sam White, Qing Pei, Ralf Hand, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 18, 2449–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2449-2022, 2022
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We present a novel approach to assimilate climate information contained in chronicles and annals from the 15th century to generate climate reconstructions of the Burgundian Low Countries, taking into account uncertainties associated with the descriptions of narrative sources. Our study aims to be a first step towards a more quantitative use of available information contained in historical texts, showing how Bayesian inference can help the climate community with this endeavor.
Yuri Brugnara, Chantal Hari, Lucas Pfister, Veronika Valler, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 18, 2357–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2357-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2357-2022, 2022
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We digitized dozens of weather journals containing temperature measurements from in and around Bern and Zurich. They cover over a century before the creation of a national weather service in Switzerland. With these data we could create daily temperature series for the two cities that span the last 265 years. We found that the pre-industrial climate on the Swiss Plateau was colder than suggested by previously available instrumental data sets and about 2.5 °C colder than the present-day climate.
Gilles Delaygue, Stefan Brönnimann, and Philip D. Jones
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-33, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2022-33, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We test whether any association between solar activity and meteorological conditions in the north Atlantic – European sector could be detected. We find associations consistent with those found by previous studies, with a slightly better statistical significance, and with less methodological biases which have impaired previous studies. Our study should help strengthen the recognition of meteorological impacts of solar activity.
Moritz Buchmann, John Coll, Johannes Aschauer, Michael Begert, Stefan Brönnimann, Barbara Chimani, Gernot Resch, Wolfgang Schöner, and Christoph Marty
The Cryosphere, 16, 2147–2161, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2147-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2147-2022, 2022
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Knowledge about inhomogeneities in a data set is important for any subsequent climatological analysis. We ran three well-established homogenization methods and compared the identified break points. By only treating breaks as valid when detected by at least two out of three methods, we enhanced the robustness of our results. We found 45 breaks within 42 of 184 investigated series; of these 70 % could be explained by events recorded in the station history.
Stefan Brönnimann, Peter Stucki, Jörg Franke, Veronika Valler, Yuri Brugnara, Ralf Hand, Laura C. Slivinski, Gilbert P. Compo, Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Michel Lang, and Bettina Schaefli
Clim. Past, 18, 919–933, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-919-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-919-2022, 2022
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Floods in Europe vary on time scales of several decades. Flood-rich and flood-poor periods alternate. Recently floods have again become more frequent. Long time series of peak stream flow, precipitation, and atmospheric variables reveal that until around 1980, these changes were mostly due to changes in atmospheric circulation. However, in recent decades the role of increasing atmospheric moisture due to climate warming has become more important and is now the main driver of flood changes.
Daniel Steinfeld, Adrian Peter, Olivia Martius, and Stefan Brönnimann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-92, 2022
Preprint archived
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We assess the performance of various fire weather indices to predict wildfire occurrence in Northern Switzerland. We find that indices responding readily to weather changes have the best performance during spring; in the summer and autumn seasons, indices that describe persistent hot and dry conditions perform best. We demonstrate that a logistic regression model trained on local historical fire activity can outperform existing fire weather indices.
Duncan Pappert, Yuri Brugnara, Sylvie Jourdain, Aleksandra Pospieszyńska, Rajmund Przybylak, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 17, 2361–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2361-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2361-2021, 2021
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This paper presents temperature and pressure measurements from the 37 stations of the late 18th century network of the Societas Meteorologica Palatina, in addition to providing an inventory of the available observations, most of which have been digitised. The quality of the recovered series is relatively good, as demonstrated by two case studies. Early instrumental data such as these will help to explore past climate and weather extremes in Europe in greater detail.
Moritz Buchmann, Michael Begert, Stefan Brönnimann, and Christoph Marty
The Cryosphere, 15, 4625–4636, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4625-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4625-2021, 2021
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We investigated the impacts of local-scale variations by analysing snow climate indicators derived from parallel snow measurements. We found the largest relative inter-pair differences for all indicators in spring and the smallest in winter. The findings serve as an important basis for our understanding of uncertainties of commonly used snow indicators and provide, in combination with break-detection methods, the groundwork in view of any homogenization efforts regarding snow time series.
Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Davide Zanchettin, Stefan Brönnimann, Elin Lundstad, and Rob Wilson
Clim. Past, 17, 1455–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021, 2021
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The 1809 eruption is one of the most recent unidentified volcanic eruptions with a global climate impact. We demonstrate that climate model simulations of the 1809 eruption show generally good agreement with many large-scale temperature reconstructions and early instrumental records for a range of radiative forcing estimates. In terms of explaining the spatially heterogeneous and temporally delayed Northern Hemisphere cooling suggested by tree-ring networks, the investigation remains open.
Noemi Imfeld, Leopold Haimberger, Alexander Sterin, Yuri Brugnara, and Stefan Brönnimann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2471–2485, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2471-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2471-2021, 2021
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Upper-air data form the backbone of reanalysis products, particularly in the pre-satellite era. However, historical upper-air data are error-prone because measurements at high altitude were especially challenging. Here, we present a collection of data from historical intercomparisons of radiosondes and error assessments reaching back to the 1930s that may allow us to better characterize such errors. The full database, including digitized data, images, and metadata, is made publicly available.
Stefan Brönnimann and Sylvia Nichol
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14333–14346, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14333-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14333-2020, 2020
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Historical column ozone data from New Zealand and the UK from the 1950s are digitised and re-evaluated. They allow studying the ozone layer prior to the era of ozone depletion. Day-to-day changes are addressed, which reflect the flow near the tropopause and hence may serve as a diagnostic for atmospheric circulation in a time and region of sparse radiosondes. A long-term comparison shows the amount of ozone depletion at southern mid-latitudes and indicates how far we are from full recovery.
Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 16, 1937–1952, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1937-2020, 2020
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Scientists often reconstruct climate from proxy data such as tree rings or historical documents. Here, I do the reverse and produce a weather diary from historical numerical weather data. Such "synthetic weather diaries" may be useful for historians, e.g. to compare with other sources or to study the weather experienced during a journey or a military operation. They could also help train machine-learning approaches, which could then be used to reconstruct weather from historical diaries.
Veronika Valler, Yuri Brugnara, Jörg Franke, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 16, 1309–1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1309-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1309-2020, 2020
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Data assimilation is becoming more and more important for past climate reconstructions. The assimilation of monthly resolved precipitation information has not been explored much so far. In this study we analyze the impact of assimilating monthly precipitation amounts and the number of wet days within an existing paleoclimate data assimilation framework. We find increased skill in the reconstruction, suggesting that monthly precipitation can constitute valuable input for future reconstructions.
Jörg Franke, Veronika Valler, Stefan Brönnimann, Raphael Neukom, and Fernando Jaume-Santero
Clim. Past, 16, 1061–1074, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1061-2020, 2020
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This study explores the influence of the input data choice on spatial climate reconstructions. We compare three tree-ring-based data sets which range from small sample size, small spatial coverage and strict screening for temperature sensitivity to the opposite. We achieve the best spatial reconstruction quality by combining all available input data but rejecting records with little and uncertain climatic information and considering moisture availability as an additional growth limitation.
Yuri Brugnara, Lucas Pfister, Leonie Villiger, Christian Rohr, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, and Stefan Brönnimann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1179–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1179-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1179-2020, 2020
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Early instrumental meteorological observations in Switzerland made before 1863, the year a national station network was created, were until recently largely unexplored. After a systematic compilation of the documents available in Swiss archives, we digitised a large part of the data so that they can be used in climate research. In this paper we give an overview of the development of meteorological observations in Switzerland and describe our approach to convert them into modern units.
Lucas Pfister, Stefan Brönnimann, Mikhaël Schwander, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, Pascal Horton, and Christian Rohr
Clim. Past, 16, 663–678, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-663-2020, 2020
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This paper aims to reconstruct high-resolution daily precipitation and temperature fields for Switzerland back to 1864 using a statistical approach called the analogue resampling method. Results suggest that the presented method is suitable for weather reconstruction. As illustrated with the example of the avalanche in winter 1887/88, these weather reconstructions have great potential for various analyses of past weather and climate impact modelling.
Angela-Maria Burgdorf, Stefan Brönnimann, and Jörg Franke
Clim. Past, 15, 2053–2065, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-2053-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-2053-2019, 2019
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The western USA is frequently affected by multiannual summer droughts. They can be separated into two groups with distinct spatial patterns. This study analyzes the atmospheric circulation during multiannual droughts in a new 3-D climate reconstruction. We confirm two distinct drought types differing with respect to atmospheric circulation as well as sea surface temperatures. Our results suggest that both the Pacific and the extratropical North Atlantic region affect North American droughts.
This Rutishauser, François Jeanneret, Robert Brügger, Yuri Brugnara, Christian Röthlisberger, August Bernasconi, Peter Bangerter, Céline Portenier, Leonie Villiger, Daria Lehmann, Lukas Meyer, Bruno Messerli, and Stefan Brönnimann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1645–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1645-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1645-2019, 2019
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This paper reports 7414 quality-controlled plant phenological observations of the BernClim phenological network in Switzerland. The data from 1304 sites at 110 stations were recorded between 1970 and 2018. The quality control (QC) points to very good internal consistency (only 0.2 % flagged as internally inconsistent) and likely to high quality of the data. BernClim data originally served in regional planning and agricultural suitability and are now valuable for climate change impact studies.
Marcelo Zamuriano, Paul Froidevaux, Isabel Moreno, Mathias Vuille, and Stefan Brönnimann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-286, 2019
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
Thomas Labbé, Christian Pfister, Stefan Brönnimann, Daniel Rousseau, Jörg Franke, and Benjamin Bois
Clim. Past, 15, 1485–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1485-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1485-2019, 2019
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In this paper we present the longest grape harvest date (GHD) record reconstructed to date, i.e. Beaune (France, Burgundy) 1354–2018. Drawing on unedited archive material, the series is validated using the long Paris temperature series that goes back to 1658 and was used to assess April-to-July temperatures from 1354 to 2018. The distribution of extremely early GHD is uneven over the 664-year-long period of the series and mirrors the rapid global warming from 1988 to 2018.
Veronika Valler, Jörg Franke, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 15, 1427–1441, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1427-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1427-2019, 2019
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In recent years, the data assimilation approach was adapted to the field of paleoclimatology to reconstruct past climate fields by combining model simulations and observations.
To improve the performance of our paleodata assimilation system, we tested various techniques that are well established in weather forecasting and evaluated their impact on assimilating instrumental data and proxy records (tree rings).
Stefan Brönnimann, Luca Frigerio, Mikhaël Schwander, Marco Rohrer, Peter Stucki, and Jörg Franke
Clim. Past, 15, 1395–1409, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1395-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1395-2019, 2019
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During the 19th century flood frequency was high in central Europe, but it was low in the mid-20th century. This paper tracks these decadal changes in flood frequency for the case of Switzerland from peak discharge data back to precipitation data and daily weather reconstructions. We find an increased frequency in flood-prone weather types during large parts of the 19th century and decreased frequency in the mid-20th century. Sea-surface temperature anomalies can only explain a small part of it.
Lucas Pfister, Franziska Hupfer, Yuri Brugnara, Lukas Munz, Leonie Villiger, Lukas Meyer, Mikhaël Schwander, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 15, 1345–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1345-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1345-2019, 2019
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The 18th and early 19th centuries saw pronounced climatic variations with impacts on the environment and society. Although instrumental meteorological data for that period exist, only a small fraction has been the subject of research. This study provides an overview of early instrumental meteorological records in Switzerland resulting from an archive survey and demonstrates the great potential of such data. It is accompanied by the online publication of the imaged data series and metadata.
Marcelo Zamuriano, Andrey Martynov, Luca Panziera, and Stefan Brönnimann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-27, 2019
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
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This work investigates the formation of a hailstorm over the Tropical Bolivian Andes. Using the WRF atmospheric model, we are able to numerically reconstruct it and we assess the main factors (mountains, lake and surface heating) in the storm formation. We propose physical mechanisms that have the potential to improve the forecasting of similar events; which are known to have a big impact over the Bolivian Altiplano, especially the region near Titicaca lake.
Peter Stucki, Moritz Bandhauer, Ulla Heikkilä, Ole Rössler, Massimiliano Zappa, Lucas Pfister, Melanie Salvisberg, Paul Froidevaux, Olivia Martius, Luca Panziera, and Stefan Brönnimann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2717–2739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018, 2018
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A catastrophic flood south of the Alps in 1868 is assessed using documents and the earliest example of high-resolution weather simulation. Simulated weather dynamics agree well with observations and damage reports. Simulated peak water levels are biased. Low forest cover did not cause the flood, but such a paradigm was used to justify afforestation. Supported by historical methods, such numerical simulations allow weather events from past centuries to be used for modern hazard and risk analyses.
Stefan Brönnimann, Jan Rajczak, Erich M. Fischer, Christoph C. Raible, Marco Rohrer, and Christoph Schär
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2047–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, 2018
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Heavy precipitation events in Switzerland are expected to become more intense, but the seasonality also changes. Analysing a large set of model simulations, we find that annual maximum rainfall events become less frequent in late summer and more frequent in early summer and early autumn. The seasonality shift is arguably related to summer drying. Results suggest that changes in the seasonal cycle need to be accounted for when preparing for moderately extreme precipitation events.
Stefan Hunziker, Stefan Brönnimann, Juan Calle, Isabel Moreno, Marcos Andrade, Laura Ticona, Adrian Huerta, and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
Clim. Past, 14, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1-2018, 2018
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Many data quality problems occurring in manned weather station observations are hardly detected with common data quality control methods. We investigated the effects of undetected data quality issues and found that they may reduce the correlation coefficients of station pairs, deteriorate the performance of data homogenization methods, increase the spread of individual station trends, and significantly bias regional trends. Applying adequate quality control approaches is of utmost importance.
Mikhaël Schwander, Marco Rohrer, Stefan Brönnimann, and Abdul Malik
Clim. Past, 13, 1199–1212, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1199-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1199-2017, 2017
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We used a new classification of daily weather patterns to analyse the influence of solar variability (11-year cycle) on European climate from 1763 to 2009. The analysis of the weather patterns occurrences shows a reduction in the number of days with a westerly flow over Europe under low solar activity during late winter. In parallel, the number of days with an easterly flow increases. Based on these results we expect colder winter over Europe under low solar activity.
Martin Wegmann, Yvan Orsolini, Emanuel Dutra, Olga Bulygina, Alexander Sterin, and Stefan Brönnimann
The Cryosphere, 11, 923–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-923-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-923-2017, 2017
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We investigate long-term climate reanalyses datasets to infer their quality in reproducing snow depth values compared to in situ measured data from meteorological stations that go back to 1900. We found that the long-term reanalyses do a good job in reproducing snow depths but have some questionable snow states early in the 20th century. Thus, with care, climate reanalyses can be a valuable tool to investigate spatial snow evolution in global warming and climate change studies.
Stefan Brönnimann, Abdul Malik, Alexander Stickler, Martin Wegmann, Christoph C. Raible, Stefan Muthers, Julien Anet, Eugene Rozanov, and Werner Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15529–15543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, 2016
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The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is a wind oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere. Effects on climate have been found, which is relevant for seasonal forecasts. However, up to now only relatively short records were available, and even within these the climate imprints were intermittent. Here we analyze a 108-year long reconstruction as well as four 405-year long simulations. We confirm most of the claimed QBO effects on climate, but they are small, which explains apparently variable effects.
Chantal Camenisch, Kathrin M. Keller, Melanie Salvisberg, Benjamin Amann, Martin Bauch, Sandro Blumer, Rudolf Brázdil, Stefan Brönnimann, Ulf Büntgen, Bruce M. S. Campbell, Laura Fernández-Donado, Dominik Fleitmann, Rüdiger Glaser, Fidel González-Rouco, Martin Grosjean, Richard C. Hoffmann, Heli Huhtamaa, Fortunat Joos, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Flavio Lehner, Jürg Luterbacher, Nicolas Maughan, Raphael Neukom, Theresa Novy, Kathleen Pribyl, Christoph C. Raible, Dirk Riemann, Maximilian Schuh, Philip Slavin, Johannes P. Werner, and Oliver Wetter
Clim. Past, 12, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, 2016
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Throughout the last millennium, several cold periods occurred which affected humanity. Here, we investigate an exceptionally cold decade during the 15th century. The cold conditions challenged the food production and led to increasing food prices and a famine in parts of Europe. In contrast to periods such as the “Year Without Summer” after the eruption of Tambora, these extreme climatic conditions seem to have occurred by chance and in relation to the internal variability of the climate system.
Philip Brohan, Gilbert P. Compo, Stefan Brönnimann, Robert J. Allan, Renate Auchmann, Yuri Brugnara, Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, and Jeffrey S. Whitaker
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-78, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-78, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
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We have used modern weather forecasting tools to reconstruct the dreadful European weather of 200 years ago – 1816 was the ‘year without a summer’; harvests failed, and people starved. We can show that 1816’s extreme climate was caused by the eruption of the Tambora volcano the previous year. This means we have some chance of predicting such extreme summers if they occur in future, though this is still a challenge to today’s forecast models.
Y. Brugnara, R. Auchmann, S. Brönnimann, R. J. Allan, I. Auer, M. Barriendos, H. Bergström, J. Bhend, R. Brázdil, G. P. Compo, R. C. Cornes, F. Dominguez-Castro, A. F. V. van Engelen, J. Filipiak, J. Holopainen, S. Jourdain, M. Kunz, J. Luterbacher, M. Maugeri, L. Mercalli, A. Moberg, C. J. Mock, G. Pichard, L. Řezníčková, G. van der Schrier, V. Slonosky, Z. Ustrnul, M. A. Valente, A. Wypych, and X. Yin
Clim. Past, 11, 1027–1047, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, 2015
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A data set of instrumental pressure and temperature observations for the early instrumental period (before ca. 1850) is described. This is the result of a digitisation effort involving the period immediately after the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815, combined with the collection of already available sub-daily time series. The highest data availability is therefore for the years 1815 to 1817. An analysis of pressure variability and of case studies in Europe is performed for that period.
A. Rammig, M. Wiedermann, J. F. Donges, F. Babst, W. von Bloh, D. Frank, K. Thonicke, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 12, 373–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, 2015
P. Stucki, S. Brönnimann, O. Martius, C. Welker, M. Imhof, N. von Wattenwyl, and N. Philipp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2867–2882, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2867-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2867-2014, 2014
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This catalog contains 240 (8 extreme) high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859 in 3 severity classes. Validation with independent wind and damage data reveals that the most hazardous winter storms are captured, while too few moderate windstorms may be detected. We find evidence of high winter storm activity in the early and late 20th century compared to the mid-20th century in both damage and wind data. This indicates a covariability of hazard and related damages on decadal timescales.
K. Willett, C. Williams, I. T. Jolliffe, R. Lund, L. V. Alexander, S. Brönnimann, L. A. Vincent, S. Easterbrook, V. K. C. Venema, D. Berry, R. E. Warren, G. Lopardo, R. Auchmann, E. Aguilar, M. J. Menne, C. Gallagher, Z. Hausfather, T. Thorarinsdottir, and P. W. Thorne
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 3, 187–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-3-187-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-3-187-2014, 2014
S. Muthers, J. G. Anet, A. Stenke, C. C. Raible, E. Rozanov, S. Brönnimann, T. Peter, F. X. Arfeuille, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2157–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, 2014
X. Wu, F. Babst, P. Ciais, D. Frank, M. Reichstein, M. Wattenbach, C. Zang, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 11, 3057–3068, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3057-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3057-2014, 2014
I. Mariani, A. Eichler, T. M. Jenk, S. Brönnimann, R. Auchmann, M. C. Leuenberger, and M. Schwikowski
Clim. Past, 10, 1093–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1093-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1093-2014, 2014
L. Ramella Pralungo, L. Haimberger, A. Stickler, and S. Brönnimann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 185–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-185-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-185-2014, 2014
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. V. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, W. Schmutz, and T. Peter
Clim. Past, 10, 921–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014
F. Arfeuille, D. Weisenstein, H. Mack, E. Rozanov, T. Peter, and S. Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 10, 359–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-359-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-359-2014, 2014
A. Stickler, S. Brönnimann, S. Jourdain, E. Roucaute, A. Sterin, D. Nikolaev, M. A. Valente, R. Wartenburger, H. Hersbach, L. Ramella-Pralungo, and D. Dee
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 29–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-29-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-29-2014, 2014
F. Arfeuille, B. P. Luo, P. Heckendorn, D. Weisenstein, J. X. Sheng, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, S. Brönnimann, L. W. Thomason, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11221–11234, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11221-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11221-2013, 2013
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, T. Peter, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10951–10967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, 2013
A. Stenke, C. R. Hoyle, B. Luo, E. Rozanov, J. Gröbner, L. Maag, S. Brönnimann, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9713–9729, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9713-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9713-2013, 2013
S. Brönnimann, J. Bhend, J. Franke, S. Flückiger, A. M. Fischer, R. Bleisch, G. Bodeker, B. Hassler, E. Rozanov, and M. Schraner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9623–9639, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9623-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9623-2013, 2013
S. Brönnimann, I. Mariani, M. Schwikowski, R. Auchmann, and A. Eichler
Clim. Past, 9, 2013–2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2013-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2013-2013, 2013
Y. Brugnara, S. Brönnimann, J. Luterbacher, and E. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6275–6288, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6275-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6275-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Centennial-Decadal
A past and present perspective on the European summer vapor pressure deficit
Drought reconstruction since 1796 CE based on tree-ring widths in the upper Heilongjiang (Amur) River basin in Northeast Asia and its linkage to Pacific Ocean climate variability
Drought increase since the mid-20th century in the northern South American Altiplano revealed by a 389-year precipitation record
Climate change detection and attribution using observed and simulated tree-ring width
Integrating plant wax abundance and isotopes for paleo-vegetation and paleoclimate reconstructions: a multi-source mixing model using a Bayesian framework
Do Southern Hemisphere tree rings record past volcanic events? A case study from New Zealand
Prospects for dendroanatomy in paleoclimatology – a case study on Picea engelmannii from the Canadian Rockies
Reconstructing past hydrology of eastern Canadian boreal catchments using clastic varved sediments and hydro-climatic modelling: 160 years of fluvial inflows
A 2600-year summer climate reconstruction in central Japan by integrating tree-ring stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes
An overview on isotopic divergences – causes for instability of tree-ring isotopes and climate correlations
Proxy surrogate reconstructions for Europe and the estimation of their uncertainties
The 4.2 ka event in the central Mediterranean: new data from a Corchia speleothem (Apuan Alps, central Italy)
A 900-year New England temperature reconstruction from in situ seasonally produced branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs)
Leaf wax n-alkane distributions record ecological changes during the Younger Dryas at Trzechowskie paleolake (northern Poland) without temporal delay
Ground surface temperature reconstruction for the last 500 years obtained from permafrost temperatures observed in the SHARE STELVIO Borehole, Italian Alps
Decreasing Indian summer monsoon on the northern Indian sub-continent during the last 180 years: evidence from five tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotope chronologies
Recent climate variations in Chile: constraints from borehole temperature profiles
Spatio-temporal variability of Arctic summer temperatures over the past 2 millennia
Palaeoclimate significance of speleothems in crystalline rocks: a test case from the Late Glacial and early Holocene (Vinschgau, northern Italy)
Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era
Climate signals in a multispecies tree-ring network from central and southern Italy and reconstruction of the late summer temperatures since the early 1700s
Low-resolution Australasian palaeoclimate records of the last 2000 years
Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years
Experiments based on blue intensity for reconstructing North Pacific temperatures along the Gulf of Alaska
Spring temperature variability over Turkey since 1800 CE reconstructed from a broad network of tree-ring data
On the spatial and temporal variability of ENSO precipitation and drought teleconnection in mainland Southeast Asia
Interannual and (multi-)decadal variability in the sedimentary BIT index of Lake Challa, East Africa, over the past 2200 years: assessment of the precipitation proxy
A tree-ring perspective on temporal changes in the frequency and intensity of hydroclimatic extremes in the territory of the Czech Republic since 761 AD
Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: a tree-ring-based reconstruction
Optimal ranking regime analysis of TreeFlow dendrohydrological reconstructions
New insights into the reconstructed temperature in Portugal over the last 400 years
Expressions of climate perturbations in western Ugandan crater lake sediment records during the last 1000 years
Blue intensity and density from northern Fennoscandian tree rings, exploring the potential to improve summer temperature reconstructions with earlywood information
Reconstruction of the March–August PDSI since 1703 AD based on tree rings of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) in the Lingkong Mountain, southeast Chinese loess Plateau
Reconstruction of northeast Asia spring temperature 1784–1990
COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models (COPRA)
A 560 yr summer temperature reconstruction for the Western Mediterranean basin based on stable carbon isotopes from Pinus nigra ssp. laricio (Corsica/France)
Isotopic and lithologic variations of one precisely-dated stalagmite across the Medieval/LIA period from Heilong Cave, central China
Modelling and climatic interpretation of the length fluctuations of Glaciar Frías (north Patagonian Andes, Argentina) 1639–2009 AD
A review of the South American monsoon history as recorded in stable isotopic proxies over the past two millennia
Identification of climatic state with limited proxy data
Multi-century tree-ring based reconstruction of the Neuquén River streamflow, northern Patagonia, Argentina
Extreme pointer years in tree-ring records of Central Spain as evidence of climatic events and the eruption of the Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru, 1600 AD)
Precipitation changes in the South American Altiplano since 1300 AD reconstructed by tree-rings
Fire history in western Patagonia from paired tree-ring fire-scar and charcoal records
Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries
Viorica Nagavciuc, Simon L. L. Michel, Daniel F. Balting, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David N. Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Clim. Past, 20, 573–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, 2024
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The main aim of this paper is to present the summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) reconstruction dataset for the last 400 years over Europe based on δ18O records by using a random forest approach. We provide both a spatial and a temporal long-term perspective on the past summer VPD and new insights into the relationship between summer VPD and large-scale atmospheric circulation. This is the first gridded reconstruction of the European summer VPD over the past 400 years.
Yang Xu, Heli Zhang, Feng Chen, Shijie Wang, Mao Hu, Martín Hadad, and Fidel Roig
Clim. Past, 19, 2079–2092, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2079-2023, 2023
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We reconstructed the monthly mean self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index for May–July in the upper Heilongjiang (Amur) Basin since 1796. Our analysis suggests that the dry/wet variability in this basin is related to several large-scale climate stresses and atmospheric circulation patterns (El Niño–Southern Oscillation). The cause of drought is primarily a reduction in advective water vapor transport, rather than precipitation circulation processes.
Mariano S. Morales, Doris B. Crispín-DelaCruz, Claudio Álvarez, Duncan A. Christie, M. Eugenia Ferrero, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Ricardo Villalba, Anthony Guerra, Ginette Ticse-Otarola, Ernesto C. Rodríguez-Ramírez, Rosmery LLocclla-Martínez, Joali Sanchez-Ferrer, and Edilson J. Requena-Rojas
Clim. Past, 19, 457–476, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-457-2023, 2023
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In this study, we develop the first tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction for the northern South American Altiplano back to 1625 CE. We established that the occurrence rate of extreme dry events together with a shift in mean dry conditions for the late 20th–beginning of the 21st century is unprecedented in the past 389 years, consistent with other paleoclimatic records. Our reconstruction provides valuable information about El Niño–Southern Oscillation influences on local precipitation.
Jörg Franke, Michael N. Evans, Andrew Schurer, and Gabriele C. Hegerl
Clim. Past, 18, 2583–2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2583-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2583-2022, 2022
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Detection and attribution is a statistical method to evaluate if external factors or random variability have caused climatic changes. We use for the first time a comparison of simulated and observed tree-ring width that circumvents many limitations of previous studies relying on climate reconstructions. We attribute variability in temperature-limited trees to strong volcanic eruptions and for the first time detect a spatial pattern in the growth of moisture-sensitive trees after eruptions.
Deming Yang and Gabriel J. Bowen
Clim. Past, 18, 2181–2210, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2181-2022, 2022
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Plant wax lipid ratios and their isotopes are used in vegetation and paleoclimate reconstructions. While studies often use either type of data, both can inform the mixing pattern of source plants. We developed a statistic model that evaluates ratios and isotopes together. Through case studies, we showed that the approach allows more detailed interpretations of vegetation and paleoclimate than traditional methods. This evolving framework can include more geochemical tracers in the future.
Philippa A. Higgins, Jonathan G. Palmer, Chris S. M. Turney, Martin S. Andersen, and Fiona Johnson
Clim. Past, 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1169-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1169-2022, 2022
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We studied eight New Zealand tree species and identified differences in their responses to large volcanic eruptions. The response is dependent on the species and how well it can tolerate stress, but substantial within-species differences are also observed depending on site factors, including altitude and exposure. This has important implications for tree-ring temperature reconstructions because site selection and compositing methods can change the magnitude of observed volcanic cooling.
Kristina Seftigen, Marina V. Fonti, Brian Luckman, Miloš Rydval, Petter Stridbeck, Georg von Arx, Rob Wilson, and Jesper Björklund
Clim. Past, 18, 1151–1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1151-2022, 2022
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New proxies and improvements in existing methodologies are needed to advance paleoclimate research. This study explored dendroanatomy, the analysis of wood anatomical parameters in dated tree rings, of Engelmann spruce from the Columbia Icefield area, Canada, as a proxy of past temperatures. Our new parameters compare favorably with state of the art proxy parameters from X-ray and visible light techniques, particularly with respect to the temporal stability of the temperature signal.
Antoine Gagnon-Poiré, Pierre Brigode, Pierre Francus, David Fortin, Patrick Lajeunesse, Hugues Dorion, and Annie-Pier Trottier
Clim. Past, 17, 653–673, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-653-2021, 2021
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A very high quality 160-year-long annually laminated (varved) sediment sequence of fluvial origin was recently discovered in an especially deep lake in Labrador. Each varve represents 1 hydrological year. A significant relation between varves' physical parameters (i.e., thickness and grain size extracted from each annual lamination) and river discharge instrumental observations provided the opportunity to develop regional discharge reconstructions beyond the instrumental period.
Takeshi Nakatsuka, Masaki Sano, Zhen Li, Chenxi Xu, Akane Tsushima, Yuki Shigeoka, Kenjiro Sho, Keiko Ohnishi, Minoru Sakamoto, Hiromasa Ozaki, Noboru Higami, Nanae Nakao, Misao Yokoyama, and Takumi Mitsutani
Clim. Past, 16, 2153–2172, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2153-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2153-2020, 2020
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In general, it is not easy to reconstruct past climate variations over a wide band of frequencies using a single proxy. Here, we propose a new method to reconstruct past summer climate seamlessly from annual to millennial timescales by integrating tree-ring cellulose oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios. The result can be utilized to investigate various scales of climatological phenomena in the past and climate–society relationships in long human history.
Martine M. Savard and Valérie Daux
Clim. Past, 16, 1223–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1223-2020, 2020
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Climatic reconstructions based on tree-ring isotopic series convey key information on past conditions prevailing in forested regions. However, in some cases, the relations between isotopes and climate appear unstable over time, generating isotopic divergences. Former reviews have thoroughly discussed the divergence concept for tree-ring width but not for isotopes. Here we present a synopsis of the isotopic divergence problem and suggest collaborative work for improving climatic reconstructions.
Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 16, 341–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, 2020
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One can use the similarity between sparse indirect observations of past climates and full fields of simulated climates to learn more about past climates. Here, we detail how one can compute uncertainty estimates for such reconstructions of past climates. This highlights the ambiguity of the reconstruction. We further show that such a reconstruction for European summer temperature agrees well with a more common approach.
Ilaria Isola, Giovanni Zanchetta, Russell N. Drysdale, Eleonora Regattieri, Monica Bini, Petra Bajo, John C. Hellstrom, Ilaria Baneschi, Piero Lionello, Jon Woodhead, and Alan Greig
Clim. Past, 15, 135–151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-135-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-135-2019, 2019
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To understand the natural variability in the climate system, the hydrological aspect (dry and wet conditions) is particularly important for its impact on our societies. The reconstruction of past precipitation regimes can provide a useful tool for forecasting future climate changes. We use multi-proxy time series (oxygen and carbon isotopes, trace elements) from a speleothem to investigate circulation pattern variations and seasonality effects during the dry 4.2 ka event in central Italy.
Daniel R. Miller, M. Helen Habicht, Benjamin A. Keisling, Isla S. Castañeda, and Raymond S. Bradley
Clim. Past, 14, 1653–1667, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1653-2018, 2018
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We measured biomarker production over a year in a small inland lake in the northeastern USA. Understanding biomarkers in the modern environment helps us improve reconstructions of past climate from lake sediment records. We use these results to interpret a 900-year decadally resolved temperature record from this lake. Our record highlights multi-decadal oscillations in temperature superimposed on a long-term cooling trend, providing novel insight into climate dynamics of the region.
Bernhard Aichner, Florian Ott, Michał Słowiński, Agnieszka M. Noryśkiewicz, Achim Brauer, and Dirk Sachse
Clim. Past, 14, 1607–1624, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1607-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1607-2018, 2018
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Abundances of plant biomarkers are compared with pollen data in a 3000-year climate archive covering the Late Glacial to Holocene transition in northern Poland. Both parameters synchronously show the rapid onset (12680–12600 yr BP) and termination
(11580–11490 yr BP) of the Younger Dryas cold interval in the study area. This demonstrates the suitability of such proxies to record pronounced changes in vegetation cover without significant delay.
Mauro Guglielmin, Marco Donatelli, Matteo Semplice, and Stefano Serra Capizzano
Clim. Past, 14, 709–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-709-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-709-2018, 2018
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The reconstruction of ground surface temperature for the last 500 years, obtained at the deepest mountain permafrost borehole of the world (Stelvio Pass, 3000 m a.s.l., Italian Alps), is presented here. The main difference with respect to MAAT reconstructions obtained through other proxy data for all of Europe relates to post Little Ice Age (LIA) events. Indeed at this site a stronger cooling of ca 1 °C between 1940 and 1989 and even a more abrupt warming between 1990 and 2011 was detected.
Chenxi Xu, Masaki Sano, Ashok Priyadarshan Dimri, Rengaswamy Ramesh, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Feng Shi, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past, 14, 653–664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-653-2018, 2018
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We have constructed a regional tree ring cellulose oxygen isotope record using a total of five chronologies obtained from the Himalaya. Centennial changes in the regional tree ring record indicate a trend of weakened Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intensity since 1820. Decreasing ISM activity is also observed in various high-resolution ISM records from southwest China and Southeast Asia, and may be the result of reduced land–ocean thermal contrasts since 1820.
Carolyne Pickler, Edmundo Gurza Fausto, Hugo Beltrami, Jean-Claude Mareschal, Francisco Suárez, Arlette Chacon-Oecklers, Nicole Blin, Maria Teresa Cortés Calderón, Alvaro Montenegro, Rob Harris, and Andres Tassara
Clim. Past, 14, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, 2018
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We compiled 31 temperature–depth profiles to reconstruct the ground surface temperature of the last 500 years in northern Chile. They suggest that the region experienced a cooling from 1850 to 1980 followed by a warming of 1.9 K. The cooling could coincide with a cooling interval in 1960. The warming is greater than that of proxy reconstructions for nearby regions and model simulations. These differences could be due to differences in spatial and temporal resolution between data and models.
Johannes P. Werner, Dmitry V. Divine, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Tine Nilsen, and Pierre Francus
Clim. Past, 14, 527–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018, 2018
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We present a new gridded Arctic summer temperature reconstruction back to the first millennium CE. Our method respects the age uncertainties of the data, which results in a more precise reconstruction.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
Gabriella Koltai, Hai Cheng, and Christoph Spötl
Clim. Past, 14, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-369-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-369-2018, 2018
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Here we present a multi-proxy study of flowstones in fractures of crystalline rocks with the aim of assessing the palaeoclimate significance of this new type of speleothem archive. Our results indicate a high degree of spatial heterogeneity, whereby changes in speleothem mineralogy and carbon isotope composition are likely governed by aquifer-internal processes. In contrast, the oxygen isotope composition reflects first-order climate variability.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
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Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Giovanni Leonelli, Anna Coppola, Maria Cristina Salvatore, Carlo Baroni, Giovanna Battipaglia, Tiziana Gentilesca, Francesco Ripullone, Marco Borghetti, Emanuele Conte, Roberto Tognetti, Marco Marchetti, Fabio Lombardi, Michele Brunetti, Maurizio Maugeri, Manuela Pelfini, Paolo Cherubini, Antonello Provenzale, and Valter Maggi
Clim. Past, 13, 1451–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1451-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1451-2017, 2017
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We analyze a tree-ring network from several sites distributed along the Italian Peninsula with the aims of detecting common climate drivers of tree growth and of reconstructing the past climate. We detect the main climatic drivers modulating tree-ring width (RW) and tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) and we reconstruct late summer temperatures since the early 1700s using a MXD chronology: this reconstruction is representative of a wide area around the Italian Peninsula.
Bronwyn C. Dixon, Jonathan J. Tyler, Andrew M. Lorrey, Ian D. Goodwin, Joëlle Gergis, and Russell N. Drysdale
Clim. Past, 13, 1403–1433, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1403-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1403-2017, 2017
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Existing sedimentary palaeoclimate records in Australasia were assessed for suitability for examining the last 2 millennia. A small number of high-quality records were identified, and new Bayesian age models were constructed for each record. Findings suggest that Australasian record chronologies and confidence in proxy–climate relationships are the main factors limiting appropriate data for examining Common Era climate variability. Recommendations for improving data accessibility are provided.
Jennifer R. Marlon, Neil Pederson, Connor Nolan, Simon Goring, Bryan Shuman, Ann Robertson, Robert Booth, Patrick J. Bartlein, Melissa A. Berke, Michael Clifford, Edward Cook, Ann Dieffenbacher-Krall, Michael C. Dietze, Amy Hessl, J. Bradford Hubeny, Stephen T. Jackson, Jeremiah Marsicek, Jason McLachlan, Cary J. Mock, David J. P. Moore, Jonathan Nichols, Dorothy Peteet, Kevin Schaefer, Valerie Trouet, Charles Umbanhowar, John W. Williams, and Zicheng Yu
Clim. Past, 13, 1355–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, 2017
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To improve our understanding of paleoclimate in the northeastern (NE) US, we compiled data from pollen, tree rings, lake levels, testate amoeba from bogs, and other proxies from the last 3000 years. The paleoclimate synthesis supports long-term cooling until the 1800s and reveals an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions around 550–750 CE. Evidence suggests the region is now becoming warmer and wetter, but more calibrated data are needed, especially to capture multidecadal variability.
Rob Wilson, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Rose Oelkers, Greg Wiles, Kevin Anchukaitis, and Nicole Davi
Clim. Past, 13, 1007–1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1007-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1007-2017, 2017
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Blue intensity shows great potential for reconstructing past summer temperatures from conifer trees growing at high latitude or the treeline. However, conifer species that express a strong colour difference between the heartwood and sapwood can impart a long-term trend bias in the resultant reconstructions. Herein, we highlight this issue using eight mountain hemlock sites across the Gulf of Alaska and explore how a non-biased reconstruction of past temperature could be derived using such data.
Nesibe Köse, H. Tuncay Güner, Grant L. Harley, and Joel Guiot
Clim. Past, 13, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1-2017, 2017
Timo A. Räsänen, Ville Lindgren, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Brendan M. Buckley, and Matti Kummu
Clim. Past, 12, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, 2016
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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is linked to severe droughts and floods in mainland Southeast Asia. This research provides a more accurate and uniform picture of the spatio-temporal effects of ENSO on precipitation (1980–2013) and improves our understanding of long-term (1650–2004) ENSO teleconnection and its variability over the study area. The results reveal not only recognisable spatio-temporal patterns but also a high degree of variability and non-stationarity in the effects of ENSO.
Laura K. Buckles, Dirk Verschuren, Johan W. H. Weijers, Christine Cocquyt, Maarten Blaauw, and Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté
Clim. Past, 12, 1243–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1243-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1243-2016, 2016
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This paper discusses the underlying mechanisms of a method that uses specific membrane lipids present in the sediments of an African tropical lake to determine past changes in rainfall. With this method, past dry periods in the last 25 000 years can be assessed.
P. Dobrovolný, M. Rybníček, T. Kolář, R. Brázdil, M. Trnka, and U. Büntgen
Clim. Past, 11, 1453–1466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1453-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1453-2015, 2015
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A new data set of 3194 oak (Quercus spp.) ring width samples collected across the Czech Republic and covering the past 1250 years was analysed. The temporal distribution of negative and positive TRW extremes occurring is regular with no indication of clustering. Negative TRW extremes coincided with above-average March-May and June-August temperature means and below-average precipitation totals. Positive extremes coincided with higher summer precipitation, while temperatures were mostly normal.
M. S. Morales, J. Carilla, H. R. Grau, and R. Villalba
Clim. Past, 11, 1139–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015, 2015
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A 601-year lake area reconstruction in NW Argentina and SW Bolivia, characterized the occurrence of annual to multi-decadal lake area fluctuations and its main oscillation modes of variability. Our reconstruction points out that the late 20th century decrease in lake area was exceptional over the period 1407–2007. A persistent negative trend in lake area is clear in the reconstruction and consistent with glacier retreat and other climate proxies from the Altiplano and the tropical Andes.
S. A. Mauget
Clim. Past, 11, 1107–1125, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1107-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1107-2015, 2015
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A new approach to time series analysis - the ORR method - was used to evaluate reconstructed western US streamflow records during 1500-2007. This method shows an interesting pattern of alternating drought and wet periods during the late 16th and 17th centuries, a period with relatively few drought or wet periods during the 18th century, and the and the reappearance of alternating dry and wet periods during the 19th and early 20th centuries.
J. A. Santos, M. F. Carneiro, A. Correia, M. J. Alcoforado, E. Zorita, and J. J. Gómez-Navarro
Clim. Past, 11, 825–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, 2015
K. Mills, D. B. Ryves, N. J. Anderson, C. L. Bryant, and J. J. Tyler
Clim. Past, 10, 1581–1601, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1581-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1581-2014, 2014
J. A. Björklund, B. E. Gunnarson, K. Seftigen, J. Esper, and H. W. Linderholm
Clim. Past, 10, 877–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-877-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-877-2014, 2014
Q. Cai, Y. Liu, Y. Lei, G. Bao, and B. Sun
Clim. Past, 10, 509–521, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-509-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-509-2014, 2014
M. Ohyama, H. Yonenobu, J.-N. Choi, W.-K. Park, M. Hanzawa, and M. Suzuki
Clim. Past, 9, 261–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-261-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-261-2013, 2013
S. F. M. Breitenbach, K. Rehfeld, B. Goswami, J. U. L. Baldini, H. E. Ridley, D. J. Kennett, K. M. Prufer, V. V. Aquino, Y. Asmerom, V. J. Polyak, H. Cheng, J. Kurths, and N. Marwan
Clim. Past, 8, 1765–1779, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1765-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1765-2012, 2012
S. Szymczak, M. M. Joachimski, A. Bräuning, T. Hetzer, and J. Kuhlemann
Clim. Past, 8, 1737–1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1737-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1737-2012, 2012
Y. F. Cui, Y. J. Wang, H. Cheng, K. Zhao, and X. G. Kong
Clim. Past, 8, 1541–1550, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1541-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1541-2012, 2012
P. W. Leclercq, P. Pitte, R. H. Giesen, M. H. Masiokas, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 8, 1385–1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1385-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1385-2012, 2012
M. Vuille, S. J. Burns, B. L. Taylor, F. W. Cruz, B. W. Bird, M. B. Abbott, L. C. Kanner, H. Cheng, and V. F. Novello
Clim. Past, 8, 1309–1321, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1309-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1309-2012, 2012
J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves
Clim. Past, 8, 1141–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1141-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1141-2012, 2012
I. A. Mundo, M. H. Masiokas, R. Villalba, M. S. Morales, R. Neukom, C. Le Quesne, R. B. Urrutia, and A. Lara
Clim. Past, 8, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-815-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-815-2012, 2012
M. Génova
Clim. Past, 8, 751–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-751-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-751-2012, 2012
M. S. Morales, D. A. Christie, R. Villalba, J. Argollo, J. Pacajes, J. S. Silva, C. A. Alvarez, J. C. Llancabure, and C. C. Soliz Gamboa
Clim. Past, 8, 653–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-653-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-653-2012, 2012
A. Holz, S. Haberle, T. T. Veblen, R. De Pol-Holz, and J. Southon
Clim. Past, 8, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-451-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-451-2012, 2012
F. C. Ljungqvist, P. J. Krusic, G. Brattström, and H. S. Sundqvist
Clim. Past, 8, 227–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-227-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-227-2012, 2012
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