Articles | Volume 19, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2463-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2463-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Dec 2023
Research article |
| 07 Dec 2023
| 07 Dec 2023
Climatic signatures in early modern European grain harvest yields
Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of History, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study, Linneanum, Thunbergsvägen 2, 752 38 Uppsala, Sweden
Bo Christiansen
Danish Meteorological Institute, Sankt Kjelds Plads 11, 2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark
Jan Esper
Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, 55128 Mainz, Germany
Global Change Research Institute (CzechGlobe), Czech Academy of Sciences, 603 00, Brno, Czech Republic
Heli Huhtamaa
Institute of History, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Lotta Leijonhufvud
Department of Historical Studies, University of Gothenburg, Box 100, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden
currently at: Upplands-Bro Municipality, 196 81 Kungsängen, Sweden
Christian Pfister
Institute of History, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Andrea Seim
Chair of Forest Growth and Dendroecology, Institute of Forest Sciences, University of Freiburg, 79106 Freiburg, Germany
Department of Botany, University of Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
Martin Karl Skoglund
Division of Agrarian History, Department of Urban and Rural Development, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 750 07 Uppsala, Sweden
Peter Thejll
Danish Meteorological Institute, Sankt Kjelds Plads 11, 2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark
Related authors
Tzu Tung Chen, Rodney Edvinsson, Karin Modig, Hans W. Linderholm, and Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-92, 2023
Preprint under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
We study the climate effects on mortality, using annual mortality records and meteorological data, in Sweden between 1749 and 1859. It is found that colder winter and spring temperatures increased mortality, while no statistically significant associations were observed between summer or autumn temperatures and mortality, and only weak associations existed with precipitation. Further research is needed about which specific diseases caused the mortality increase following cold winters and springs.
Johannes P. Werner, Dmitry V. Divine, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Tine Nilsen, and Pierre Francus
Clim. Past, 14, 527–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new gridded Arctic summer temperature reconstruction back to the first millennium CE. Our method respects the age uncertainties of the data, which results in a more precise reconstruction.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
H. S. Sundqvist, D. S. Kaufman, N. P. McKay, N. L. Balascio, J. P. Briner, L. C. Cwynar, H. P. Sejrup, H. Seppä, D. A. Subetto, J. T. Andrews, Y. Axford, J. Bakke, H. J. B. Birks, S. J. Brooks, A. de Vernal, A. E. Jennings, F. C. Ljungqvist, K. M. Rühland, C. Saenger, J. P. Smol, and A. E. Viau
Clim. Past, 10, 1605–1631, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1605-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1605-2014, 2014
Richard Warren, Niklaus Emanuel Bartlome, Noémie Wellinger, Jörg Franke, Ralf Hand, Stefan Brönnimann, and Heli Huhtamaa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-743, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the ClimeApp web application. The app provides quick access to the ModE-RA global climate reanalysis. Users can calculate and plot anomalies, composites, correlations, regressions and annual cycles across three different datasets and four climate variables. By re-examining the 1815 Tambora eruption, we demonstrate how combining results from different datasets and sources can help us investigate the historical palaeoclimate and integrate it into human history.
Tzu Tung Chen, Rodney Edvinsson, Karin Modig, Hans W. Linderholm, and Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-92, 2023
Preprint under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
We study the climate effects on mortality, using annual mortality records and meteorological data, in Sweden between 1749 and 1859. It is found that colder winter and spring temperatures increased mortality, while no statistically significant associations were observed between summer or autumn temperatures and mortality, and only weak associations existed with precipitation. Further research is needed about which specific diseases caused the mortality increase following cold winters and springs.
Thomas Pliemon, Ulrich Foelsche, Christian Rohr, and Christian Pfister
Clim. Past, 19, 2237–2256, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2237-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Louis Morin consistently recorded precipitation intensity and duration between 1665 and 1713. We use these records to reconstruct precipitation totals. This reconstruction is validated by several methods and then presented using precipitation indexes. What is exceptional about this dataset is the availability of a sub-daily resolution and the low number of missing data points over the entire observation period.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Christian Pfister, Katrin Kleemann, Kateřina Chromá, Péter Szabó, and Piotr Olinski
Clim. Past, 19, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Thirty Years' War (from 1618 to 1648 CE), an armed military conflict in Europe, brought extensive devastation to Europe. The paper analyses annual and seasonal temperature, precipitation, and drought patterns, as well as severe weather extremes, based particularly on documentary data, during this event in central Europe to demonstrate their broad impacts on human society and human responses in coincidence with weather and climate during this period of hardship.
Christian Pfister, Stefan Brönnimann, Andres Altwegg, Rudolf Brázdil, Laurent Litzenburger, Daniele Lorusso, and Thomas Pliemon
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-66, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-66, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the sugar content of wine must as an indicator of warm season temperatures since 1420. Winegrowers in Western Europe recorded it early on, as it mattered for the wine price. Their estimates agree well with measured sugar content, warm season temperatures and the frequency of large-scale weather events. Wine quality data go further back than grape harvest dates and complement them, notably in hot summers. After the warming since 1990, only good qualities were obtained.
Heli Huhtamaa, Markus Stoffel, and Christophe Corona
Clim. Past, 18, 2077–2092, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2077-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tree-ring data and written sources from northern Fennoscandia reveal that large 17th century eruptions had considerable climatic, agricultural, and socioeconomic impacts far away from the eruption locations. Yet, micro-regional investigation shows that the human consequences were commonly indirect, as various factors, like agro-ecosystems, resource availability, institutions, and personal networks, dictated how the volcanic cold pulses and related crop failures materialized on a societal level.
Anna Wieland, Markus Greule, Philipp Roemer, Jan Esper, and Frank Keppler
Clim. Past, 18, 1849–1866, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1849-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1849-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examined annually resolved stable carbon and hydrogen isotope ratios of wood lignin methoxy groups of beech trees growing in temperate, low elevation environments. Here, carbon isotope ratios reveal highest correlations with regional summer temperatures while hydrogen isotope ratios correlate more strongly with large-scale temperature changes. By combining the dual isotope ratios of wood lignin methoxy groups, a proxy for regional- to subcontinental-scale temperature patterns can be applied.
Thomas Pliemon, Ulrich Foelsche, Christian Rohr, and Christian Pfister
Clim. Past, 18, 1685–1707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1685-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We have digitized and analyzed meteorological variables (temperature, direction of the movement of the clouds, and cloud cover), which were noted by Louis Morin in the period 1665–1713 in Paris. This time period is characterized by cold winters and autumns and moderate springs and summers. A low frequency of westerlies in the winter months leads to a cooling. Morin's measurements seem to be trustworthy. Only cloud cover in quantitative terms should be taken with caution.
Markus Stoffel, Christophe Corona, Francis Ludlow, Michael Sigl, Heli Huhtamaa, Emmanuel Garnier, Samuli Helama, Sébastien Guillet, Arlene Crampsie, Katrin Kleemann, Chantal Camenisch, Joseph McConnell, and Chaochao Gao
Clim. Past, 18, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-17th century saw several volcanic eruptions, deteriorating climate, political instability, and famine in Europe, China, and Japan. We analyze impacts of the eruptions on climate but also study their socio-political context. We show that an unambiguous distinction of volcanic cooling or wetting from natural climate variability is not straightforward. It also shows that political instability, poor harvest, and famine cannot only be attributed to volcanic climatic impacts.
Sam White, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Davide Zanchettin, Heli Huhtamaa, Dagomar Degroot, Markus Stoffel, and Christophe Corona
Clim. Past, 18, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines whether the 1600 Huaynaputina volcano eruption triggered persistent cooling in the North Atlantic. It compares previous paleoclimate simulations with new climate reconstructions from natural proxies and historical documents and finds that the reconstructions are consistent with, but do not support, an eruption trigger for persistent cooling. The study also analyzes societal impacts of climatic change in ca. 1600 and the use of historical observations in model–data comparison.
Martin Karl Skoglund
Clim. Past, 18, 405–433, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-405-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-405-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article finds that grain farming in historical Scania (ca. 1700–1900) was adapted to wet and cold summers, while being resilient to frost and climate variability in the spring and autumn. These relationships started to change in the late 19th century with the introduction of new grain varieties, particularly autumn grain varieties. Nonetheless, historical farmers faced a threat in common with contemporary farmers, namely summer droughts, like the summer drought of 2018.
Lotta Leijonhufvud and Dag Retsö
Clim. Past, 17, 2015–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Over the last 600 years, Sweden has occasionally suffered from severe summer droughts. But droughts caused by extreme heat are uncommon. They are instead usually caused by lack of rain. From historical documents it can be confirmed that such drought periods, with substantial consequences for agriculture and mining activities, have occurred on repeated occasions between the Middle Ages and 1800 CE, coinciding with a slightly colder climate and other social strains in the 17th and 18th centuries.
Nicolaj Hansen, Peter L. Langen, Fredrik Boberg, Rene Forsberg, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Peter Thejll, Baptiste Vandecrux, and Ruth Mottram
The Cryosphere, 15, 4315–4333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4315-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4315-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We have used computer models to estimate the Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) from 1980 to 2017. Our estimates lies between 2473.5 ± 114.4 Gt per year and 2564.8 ± 113.7 Gt per year. To evaluate our models, we compared the modelled snow temperatures and densities to in situ measurements. We also investigated the spatial distribution of the SMB. It is very important to have estimates of the Antarctic SMB because then it is easier to understand global sea level changes.
Bo Christiansen
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 409–422, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-409-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-409-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In geophysics we often need to analyse large samples of high-dimensional fields. Fortunately but counterintuitively, such high dimensionality can be a blessing, and we demonstrate how this allows simple analytical results to be derived. These results include estimates of correlations between sample members and how the sample mean depends on the sample size. We show that the properties of high dimensionality with success can be applied to climate fields, such as those from ensemble modelling.
Torben Schmith, Peter Thejll, Peter Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Bo Christiansen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Marianne Sloth Madsen, and Christian Steger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
European extreme precipitation is expected to change in the future; this is based on climate model projections. But, since climate models have errors, projections are uncertain. We study this uncertainty in the projections by comparing results from an ensemble of 19 climate models. Results can be used to give improved estimates of future extreme precipitation for Europe.
Lara Klippel, Scott St. George, Ulf Büntgen, Paul J. Krusic, and Jan Esper
Clim. Past, 16, 729–742, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-729-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-729-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The PAGES2k multiproxy database offers a new and unique opportunity to study the lack of long-term cooling trends in tree-ring data, which can be expected in Northern Hemisphere summers, particularly in the high latitudes, due to orbitally driven changes in solar irradiance. Tests of different influencing factors reveal that preserving millennial-scale cooling trends related to orbital forcing is not feasible in most tree-ring datasets.
Bernd R. Schöne, Aliona E. Meret, Sven M. Baier, Jens Fiebig, Jan Esper, Jeffrey McDonnell, and Laurent Pfister
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-673-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first annually resolved stable isotope record (1819–1998) from shells of Swedish river mussels. Data reflect hydrological processes in the catchment and changes in the isotope value of local precipitation. The latter is related to the origin of moisture from which precipitation formed (North Atlantic or the Arctic) and governed by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Results help to better understand climate dynamics and constrain ecological changes in river ecosystems.
Thomas Labbé, Christian Pfister, Stefan Brönnimann, Daniel Rousseau, Jörg Franke, and Benjamin Bois
Clim. Past, 15, 1485–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1485-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1485-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the longest grape harvest date (GHD) record reconstructed to date, i.e. Beaune (France, Burgundy) 1354–2018. Drawing on unedited archive material, the series is validated using the long Paris temperature series that goes back to 1658 and was used to assess April-to-July temperatures from 1354 to 2018. The distribution of extremely early GHD is uneven over the 664-year-long period of the series and mirrors the rapid global warming from 1988 to 2018.
Tobias Anhäuser, Birgit Sehls, Werner Thomas, Claudia Hartl, Markus Greule, Denis Scholz, Jan Esper, and Frank Keppler
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-8, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-8, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Johannes P. Werner, Dmitry V. Divine, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Tine Nilsen, and Pierre Francus
Clim. Past, 14, 527–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new gridded Arctic summer temperature reconstruction back to the first millennium CE. Our method respects the age uncertainties of the data, which results in a more precise reconstruction.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
Bo Christiansen, Nis Jepsen, Rigel Kivi, Georg Hansen, Niels Larsen, and Ulrik Smith Korsholm
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9347–9364, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9347-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9347-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone soundings in the troposphere from nine Arctic stations covering the period 1984–2014 have been analyzed. Stations with the best data coverage show a consistent and significant temporal variation with a maximum near 2005 followed by a decrease. Some significant changes are found in the annual cycle in agreement with the notion that the ozone summer maximum is appearing earlier in the year. Such changes in Arctic ozone in the free troposphere have not been reported before.
Ernesto Tejedor, Miguel Ángel Saz, José María Cuadrat, Jan Esper, and Martín de Luis
Clim. Past, 13, 93–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-93-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-93-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Through this study, and inferred from 316 series of tree-ring width, we developed a maximum temperature reconstruction that is significant for much of the Iberian Peninsula (IP). This reconstruction will not only help to understand the past climate of the IP but also serve to improve future climate change scenarios particularly affecting the Mediterranean area.
Chantal Camenisch, Kathrin M. Keller, Melanie Salvisberg, Benjamin Amann, Martin Bauch, Sandro Blumer, Rudolf Brázdil, Stefan Brönnimann, Ulf Büntgen, Bruce M. S. Campbell, Laura Fernández-Donado, Dominik Fleitmann, Rüdiger Glaser, Fidel González-Rouco, Martin Grosjean, Richard C. Hoffmann, Heli Huhtamaa, Fortunat Joos, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Flavio Lehner, Jürg Luterbacher, Nicolas Maughan, Raphael Neukom, Theresa Novy, Kathleen Pribyl, Christoph C. Raible, Dirk Riemann, Maximilian Schuh, Philip Slavin, Johannes P. Werner, and Oliver Wetter
Clim. Past, 12, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Throughout the last millennium, several cold periods occurred which affected humanity. Here, we investigate an exceptionally cold decade during the 15th century. The cold conditions challenged the food production and led to increasing food prices and a famine in parts of Europe. In contrast to periods such as the “Year Without Summer” after the eruption of Tambora, these extreme climatic conditions seem to have occurred by chance and in relation to the internal variability of the climate system.
H. S. Sundqvist, D. S. Kaufman, N. P. McKay, N. L. Balascio, J. P. Briner, L. C. Cwynar, H. P. Sejrup, H. Seppä, D. A. Subetto, J. T. Andrews, Y. Axford, J. Bakke, H. J. B. Birks, S. J. Brooks, A. de Vernal, A. E. Jennings, F. C. Ljungqvist, K. M. Rühland, C. Saenger, J. P. Smol, and A. E. Viau
Clim. Past, 10, 1605–1631, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1605-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1605-2014, 2014
O. Wetter and C. Pfister
Clim. Past, 9, 41–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-41-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-41-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Historical Records | Timescale: Centennial-Decadal
Effects of weather and climate on fluctuations of grain prices in southwestern Bohemia, 1725–1824 CE
Climate and disease in historical urban space: evidence from 19th century Poznań, Poland
Abrupt termination of the Little Ice Age in the Alps in the mid-19th century: lessons from a multi-proxy tree-ring reconstruction of glacier mass balance
Pre-industrial temperature variability on the Swiss Plateau derived from the instrumental daily series of Bern and Zurich
Is it possible to estimate aerosol optical depth from historic colour paintings?
Meteorological and climatological triggers of notable past and present bark beetle outbreaks in the Czech Republic
Quantifying and reducing researcher subjectivity in the generation of climate indices from documentary sources
Documentary-based climate reconstructions in the Czech Lands 1501–2020 CE and their European context
Controlling water infrastructure and codifying water knowledge: institutional responses to severe drought in Barcelona (1620–1650)
Reassessing long-term drought risk and societal impacts in Shenyang, Liaoning Province, north-east China (1200–2015)
Climate records in ancient Chinese diaries and their application in historical climate reconstruction – a case study of Yunshan Diary
Reconstructions of droughts in Germany since 1500 – combining hermeneutic information and instrumental records in historical and modern perspectives
A survey of the impact of summer droughts in southern and eastern England, 1200–1700
A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of Cedrus deodara D. Don from the Hindu Kush range of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations
Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries in the light of multi-proxy data
Rogation ceremonies: a key to understanding past drought variability in northeastern Spain since 1650
The longest homogeneous series of grape harvest dates, Beaune 1354–2018, and its significance for the understanding of past and present climate
The weather behind words – new methodologies for integrated hydrometeorological reconstruction through documentary sources
Extreme droughts and human responses to them: the Czech Lands in the pre-instrumental period
Documentary data and the study of past droughts: a global state of the art
A 414-year tree-ring-based April–July minimum temperature reconstruction and its implications for the extreme climate events, northeast China
Streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period in northern Québec: comparison of hydrological reconstructions based on tree rings and geopotential height field reanalysis
Temperature changes derived from phenological and natural evidence in South Central China from 1850 to 2008
Droughts in the Czech Lands, 1090–2012 AD
Temperature changes over the past 2000 yr in China and comparison with the Northern Hemisphere
Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records
An open-access database of grape harvest dates for climate research: data description and quality assessment
Winter temperature variations over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River since 1736 AD
Assessing extreme droughts in Spain during 1750–1850 from rogation ceremonies
Continental atmospheric circulation over Europe during the Little Ice Age inferred from grape harvest dates
Hydrometeorological extremes derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, 1751–1900 AD
A shift in the spatial pattern of Iberian droughts during the 17th century
Rudolf Brázdil, Jan Lhoták, Kateřina Chromá, and Petr Dobrovolný
Clim. Past, 20, 1017–1037, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1017-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The newly developed series of wheat, rye, barley, and oats prices from Sušice (southwestern Bohemia) for the period 1725–1824 CE is used to demonstrate effects of weather, climate, socio-economic, and societal factors on their fluctuations, with particular attention paid to years with extremely high prices. Cold spring temperatures and wet conditions from winter to summer were reflected in very high grain prices.
Grażyna Liczbińska, Jörg Peter Vögele, and Marek Brabec
Clim. Past, 20, 137–150, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-137-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-137-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the relationship between temperature and precipitation as explanatory variables for the probability of death due to waterborne and airborne diseases in historical urban space. The lagged effects of temperature and precipitation on waterborne and airborne diseases were significant, except for the smooth lagged average monthly temperature effect for the latter. There was also significant spatial heterogeneity in the prevalence of deaths due to waterborne and airborne diseases.
Jérôme Lopez-Saez, Christophe Corona, Lenka Slamova, Matthias Huss, Valérie Daux, Kurt Nicolussi, and Markus Stoffel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1746, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1746, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in the European Alps have been retreating since the 1850s. Monitoring glacier mass balance is vital for understanding global changes, but only a few glaciers have long-term data. This study aims to reconstruct the mass balance of Silvrettagletscher in the Swiss Alps using stable isotopes and tree-ring proxies. Results indicate increased glacier mass until the 19th century, followed by a sharp decline after the Little Ice Age with accelerated losses due to anthropogenic warming.
Yuri Brugnara, Chantal Hari, Lucas Pfister, Veronika Valler, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 18, 2357–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2357-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2357-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We digitized dozens of weather journals containing temperature measurements from in and around Bern and Zurich. They cover over a century before the creation of a national weather service in Switzerland. With these data we could create daily temperature series for the two cities that span the last 265 years. We found that the pre-industrial climate on the Swiss Plateau was colder than suggested by previously available instrumental data sets and about 2.5 °C colder than the present-day climate.
Christian von Savigny, Anna Lange, Anne Hemkendreis, Christoph G. Hoffmann, and Alexei Rozanov
Clim. Past, 18, 2345–2356, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2345-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2345-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the possibility of inferring information on aerosol optical depth from photographs of historic paintings. The idea – which has been applied in previous studies – is very interesting because it would provide an archive of the atmospheric aerosol loading covering many centuries. We show that twilight colours depend not only on the aerosol optical thickness, but also on several other parameters, making a quantitative estimate of aerosol optical depth very difficult.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Zahradník, Péter Szabó, Kateřina Chromá, Petr Dobrovolný, Lukáš Dolák, Miroslav Trnka, Jan Řehoř, and Silvie Suchánková
Clim. Past, 18, 2155–2180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2155-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2155-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Bark beetle outbreaks are important disturbances to Norway spruce forests. Their meteorological and climatological triggers are analysed for the main oubreaks over the territory of the Czech Republic based on newly created series of such outbreaks, covering the 1781–2021 CE period. The paper demonstrates the shift from windstorms as the main meteorological triggers of past outbreaks to effects of high temperatures and droughts together with windstorms in past decades.
George C. D. Adamson, David J. Nash, and Stefan W. Grab
Clim. Past, 18, 1071–1081, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1071-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1071-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Descriptions of climate held in archives are a valuable source of past climate variability, but there is a large potential for error in assigning quantitative indices (e.g. −2, v. dry to +2, v. wet) to descriptive data. This is the first study to examine this uncertainty. We gave the same dataset to 71 postgraduate students and 6 professional scientists, findings that error can be minimized by taking an average of indices developed by eight postgraduates and only two professional climatologists.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Jiří Mikšovský, Petr Pišoft, Miroslav Trnka, Martin Možný, and Jan Balek
Clim. Past, 18, 935–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-935-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-935-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with 520-year series (1501–2020 CE) of temperature, precipitation, and four drought indices reconstructed from documentary evidence and instrumental observations for the Czech Lands. Basic features of their fluctuations, long-term trends, and periodicities as well as attribution to changes in external forcings and climate variability modes are analysed. Representativeness of Czech reconstructions at European scale is evaluated. The paper shows extreme character of past decades.
Santiago Gorostiza, Maria Antònia Martí Escayol, and Mariano Barriendos
Clim. Past, 17, 913–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-913-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-913-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
How did cities respond to drought during the 17th century? This article studies the strategies followed by the city government of Barcelona during the severely dry period from 1620 to 1650. Beyond the efforts to expand urban water supply sources and to improve the maintenance of the system, the city government decided to compile knowledge about water infrastructure into a book and to restrict access to it. This management strategy aimed to increase the city's control over water.
LingYun Tang, Neil Macdonald, Heather Sangster, Richard Chiverrell, and Rachel Gaulton
Clim. Past, 16, 1917–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1917-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1917-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A historical drought series (since 1200 CE) for Shenyang, NE China, shows 20th century droughts comparable in magnitude to recent severe droughts. Drought resilience driven by early 20th century societal/cultural changes reduced loss of life compared with the 1887 and 1891 droughts. A longer temporal analysis from integrated precipitation and historical records shows an earlier onset to droughts. Regional standardised precipitation indices could provide early warnings for drought development.
Siying Chen, Yun Su, Xiuqi Fang, and Jia He
Clim. Past, 16, 1873–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1873-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1873-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Private diaries are important sources of historical data for research on climate change. Through a case study of Yunshan Diary, authored by Bi Guo of the Yuan dynasty of China, this article demonstrates how to delve into climate information in ancient diaries, mainly including species distribution records, phenological records and daily weather descriptions. This article considers how to use these records to reconstruct climate change and extreme climatic events on various timescales.
Rüdiger Glaser and Michael Kahle
Clim. Past, 16, 1207–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1207-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1207-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new study on droughts in Germany since 1500 reveals the long-term trend of single extreme events, as well as drier periods. Extreme droughts appeared in 1540, 1590, 1615, 1706, 1834, 1893, 1921, 1949 and 2018. Like today, droughts had manifold impacts such as harvest failures, water deficits, low water levels and forest fires. This had different societal consequences ranging from famine, disease, rising prices, migration and riots leading to subsidies and discussions on climate change.
Kathleen Pribyl
Clim. Past, 16, 1027–1041, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1027-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1027-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts pose a climatic hazard that can have a profound impacts on past societies. Using documentary sources, this paper studies the occurrence and impacts of spring–summer droughts in pre-industrial England from 1200 to 1700. The impacts most relevant to human livelihood, including the agricultural and pastoral sectors of agrarian production, and public health are evaluated.
Sarir Ahmad, Liangjun Zhu, Sumaira Yasmeen, Yuandong Zhang, Zongshan Li, Sami Ullah, Shijie Han, and Xiaochun Wang
Clim. Past, 16, 783–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-783-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-783-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides the opportunity to extend climatic records to preindustrial periods in northern Pakistan. The reconstructed March–August PDSIs for the past 424 years, going back to 1593 CE, enable scientists to know how these areas were prone to climatic extremes in the past. The instrumental data are limited in Pakistan; however, the Cedrus deodara tree that preserves physical characteristics of past climatic variabilities can provide insight into the trend of climatic changes.
Rajmund Przybylak, Piotr Oliński, Marcin Koprowski, Janusz Filipiak, Aleksandra Pospieszyńska, Waldemar Chorążyczewski, Radosław Puchałka, and Henryk Paweł Dąbrowski
Clim. Past, 16, 627–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-627-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents the main features of droughts in Poland in the period 996–2015 based on proxy data (documentary and dendrochronological) and instrumental measurements of precipitation. More than 100 droughts were found in documentary sources from the mid-15th century to the end of the 18th century with a maximum in the second halves of the 17th and, particularly, the 18th century. The long-term frequency of droughts in Poland has been stable for the last two or three centuries.
Ernesto Tejedor, Martín de Luis, Mariano Barriendos, José María Cuadrat, Jürg Luterbacher, and Miguel Ángel Saz
Clim. Past, 15, 1647–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1647-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1647-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new dataset of historical documents by compiling records (rogation ceremonies) from 13 cities in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula (IP). These records were transformed into quantitative continuous data to develop drought indices (DIs). We regionalized them by creating three DIs (Ebro Valle, Mediterranean, and Mountain), which cover the period from 1650 to 1899 CE. We identified extreme drought years and periods which help to understand climate variability in the IP.
Thomas Labbé, Christian Pfister, Stefan Brönnimann, Daniel Rousseau, Jörg Franke, and Benjamin Bois
Clim. Past, 15, 1485–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1485-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1485-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the longest grape harvest date (GHD) record reconstructed to date, i.e. Beaune (France, Burgundy) 1354–2018. Drawing on unedited archive material, the series is validated using the long Paris temperature series that goes back to 1658 and was used to assess April-to-July temperatures from 1354 to 2018. The distribution of extremely early GHD is uneven over the 664-year-long period of the series and mirrors the rapid global warming from 1988 to 2018.
Salvador Gil-Guirado, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, and Juan Pedro Montávez
Clim. Past, 15, 1303–1325, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1303-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1303-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The historical climatology has remarkable research potentialities. However, historical climatology has some methodological limitations. This study presents a new methodology (COST) that allows us to perform climate reconstructions with monthly resolution. The variability of the climatic series obtained are coherent with previous studies. The new proposed method is objective and is not affected by social changes, which allows us to perform studies in regions with different languages and cultures.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Miroslav Trnka, Ladislava Řezníčková, Lukáš Dolák, and Oldřich Kotyza
Clim. Past, 15, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper analyses extreme droughts of the pre-instrumental period (1501–1803) over the territory of the recent Czech Republic. In total, 16 droughts were selected for spring, summer and autumn each and 14 droughts for summer half-year (Apr–Sep). They are characterized by very low values of drought indices, high temperatures, low precipitation and by the influence of high-pressure situations. Selected extreme droughts are described in more detail. Effect of droughts on grain prices are studied.
Rudolf Brázdil, Andrea Kiss, Jürg Luterbacher, David J. Nash, and Ladislava Řezníčková
Clim. Past, 14, 1915–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1915-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1915-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a worldwide state of the art of droughts fluctuations based on documentary data. It gives an overview of achievements related to different kinds of documentary evidence with their examples and an overview of papers presenting long-term drought chronologies over the individual continents, analysis of the most outstanding drought events, the influence of external forcing and large-scale climate drivers, and human impacts and responses. It recommends future research directions.
Shanna Lyu, Zongshan Li, Yuandong Zhang, and Xiaochun Wang
Clim. Past, 12, 1879–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1879-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1879-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a 414-year growing season minimum temperature reconstruction based on Korean pine tree-ring series at Laobai Mountain, northeast China. It developed a more than 400-year climate record in this area for the first time. This reconstruction showed six cold periods, seven warm periods, and natural disaster records of extreme climate events.
Pierre Brigode, François Brissette, Antoine Nicault, Luc Perreault, Anna Kuentz, Thibault Mathevet, and Joël Gailhard
Clim. Past, 12, 1785–1804, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1785-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1785-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we apply a new hydro-climatic reconstruction method on the Caniapiscau Reservoir (Canada), compare the obtained streamflow time series against time series derived from dendrohydrology by other authors on the same catchment, and study the natural streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period. This new reconstruction is based on a historical reanalysis of global geopotential height fields and aims to produce daily streamflow time series (using a rainfall–runoff model).
J. Zheng, Z. Hua, Y. Liu, and Z. Hao
Clim. Past, 11, 1553–1561, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1553-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1553-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we reconstruct the annual temperature anomalies in South Central China from 1850 to 2008, using phenodates of plants, snowfall days, and five tree-ring width chronologies. It is found that rapid warming has occurred since the 1990s, with an abrupt change around 1997, leading to unprecedented variability in warming; a cold interval dominated the 1860s, 1890s, and 1950s; warm decades occurred around 1850, 1870, and 1960; and the warmest decades were the 1990s–2000s.
R. Brázdil, P. Dobrovolný, M. Trnka, O. Kotyza, L. Řezníčková, H. Valášek, P. Zahradníček, and P. Štěpánek
Clim. Past, 9, 1985–2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1985-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1985-2013, 2013
Q. Ge, Z. Hao, J. Zheng, and X. Shao
Clim. Past, 9, 1153–1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1153-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1153-2013, 2013
H.-J. Lüdecke, A. Hempelmann, and C. O. Weiss
Clim. Past, 9, 447–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-447-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-447-2013, 2013
V. Daux, I. Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, P. Yiou, I. Chuine, E. Garnier, E. Le Roy Ladurie, O. Mestre, and J. Tardaguila
Clim. Past, 8, 1403–1418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1403-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1403-2012, 2012
Z.-X. Hao, J.-Y. Zheng, Q.-S. Ge, and W.-C. Wang
Clim. Past, 8, 1023–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1023-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1023-2012, 2012
F. Domínguez-Castro, P. Ribera, R. García-Herrera, J. M. Vaquero, M. Barriendos, J. M. Cuadrat, and J. M. Moreno
Clim. Past, 8, 705–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-705-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-705-2012, 2012
P. Yiou, I. García de Cortázar-Atauri, I. Chuine, V. Daux, E. Garnier, N. Viovy, C. van Leeuwen, A. K. Parker, and J.-M. Boursiquot
Clim. Past, 8, 577–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-577-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-577-2012, 2012
R. Brázdil, K. Chromá, H. Valášek, and L. Dolák
Clim. Past, 8, 467–481, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-467-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-467-2012, 2012
F. Domínguez-Castro, R. García-Herrera, P. Ribera, and M. Barriendos
Clim. Past, 6, 553–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-553-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-553-2010, 2010
Cited articles
Adamson, G. C. D., Nash, D. J., and Grab, S. W.: Quantifying and reducing researcher subjectivity in the generation of climate indices from documentary sources, Clim. Past, 18, 1071–1081, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1071-2022, 2022. a, b, c
Ågren, K.: Adelns bönder och kronans: Skatter och besvär i Uppland 1650–1680, PhD thesis, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 1964. a
Albers, H., Gornott, C., and Hüttel, S.: How do inputs and weather drive wheat yield volatility? The example of Germany, Food Policy, 70, 50–61, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.05.001, 2017. a
Alfani, G. and Ó Gráda, C. (Eds.): Famine in European History, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316841235, 2017. a, b
Alfani, G. and Ó Gráda, C.: The timing and causes of famines in Europe, Nat. Sustain., 1, 283–288, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0078-0, 2018. a
Allen, R. C.: Economic structure and agricultural productivity in Europe, 1300–1800, Eur. Rev. Econ. Hist., 4, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1361491600000125, 2000. a
Allen, R. C. and Unger, R. W.: The Allen-Unger Global Commodity Prices Database, Res. Data J. Hum. Soc. Sci., 4, 81–90, https://doi.org/10.1163/24523666-00401006, 2019a. a
Allen, R. C. and Unger, R. W.: The Allen-Unger Global Commodity Prices Database, GCPDB [data set], http://www.gcpdb.info/data.html (last access: 28 November 2023), 2019b. a
Appleby, A. B.: Grain prices and subsistence crises in England and France, 1590–1740, J. Econ. Hist., 39, 865–887, https://doi.org/10.1017/S002205070009865X, 1979. a
Barquín, R.: The demand elasticity for wheat in the 14th to 18th centuries, Rev. Hist. Econ., 23, 241–267, 2005. a
Barriendos, M.: Climate and culture in Spain, religious responses to extreme climatic events in the Hispanic Kingdoms (16th–19th centuries), in: Kulturelle Konsequenzen der “Kleinen Eiszeit”, edited by: Behringer, W., Lehmann, H., and Pfister, C., 379–414, Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht, Göttingen, ISBN 9783525358641, 2005. a, b
Bartlett, M. S.: Some aspects of the time-correlation problem in regard to tests of significance, J. Royal Stat. Soc., 98, 536–543, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2397-2335.1935.tb04277.x, 1935. a
Bauernfeind, W. and Woitek, U.: Cyclical characteristics of tithe series in Mid Franconia and Switzerland 1339–1708: An application of maximum entropy spectral analysis, Hist. Soc. Res., 21, 122–150, 1996. a
Beck, H. E., Zimmermann, N. E., McVicar, T. R., Vergopolan, N., Berg, A., and Wood, E. F.: Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution, Sci. Data, 5, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.214, 2018. a, b
Beillouin, D., Schauberger, B., Bastos, A., Ciais, P., and Makowski, D.: Impact of extreme weather conditions on European crop production in 2018, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B, 375, 20190510, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0510, 2020. a, b, c
Bekar, C. T.: The persistence of harvest shocks in medieval England, J. Econ. Hist., 79, 954–988, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050719000524, 2019. a, b
Beveridge, W. H.: Weather and harvest cycles, Econ. J., 31, 429–452, https://doi.org/10.2307/2223104, 1921. a
Beveridge, W. H.: Wheat prices and rainfall in western Europe, J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 85, 412–475, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2397-2335.1922.tb00808.x, 1922. a
Brasch, E.: Ekonomikommissionen 1725–1731: Sveriges första jordbruksutredning och preludium till den agrara revolutionen, Licentiate thesis, Lund University, Lund, 2016. a
Brázdil, R., Dobrovolný, P., Trnka, M., Řezníčková, L., Dolák, L., and Kotyza, O.: Extreme droughts and human responses to them: the Czech Lands in the pre-instrumental period, Clim. Past, 15, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d
Brázdil, R., Dobrovolný, P., Bauch, M., Camenisch, C., Kiss, A., Kotyza, O., Oliński, P., and Řezníčková, L.: Central Europe, 1531–1540 CE: The driest summer decade of the past five centuries?, Clim. Past, 16, 2125–2151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, 2020. a
Briffa, K., van der Schrier, G., and Jones, P.: Wet and dry summers in Europe since 1750: evidence of increasing drought, Int. J. Climatol., 29, 1894–1905, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1836, 2009. a
Brönnimann, S., Allan, R., Ashcroft, L., Baer, S., Barriendos, M., Brázdil, R., Brugnara, Y., Brunet, M., Brunetti, M., Chimani, B., Cornes, R., Domínguez-Castro, F., Filipiak, J., Founda, D., Herrera, R. G., Gergis, J., Grab, S., Hannak, L., Huhtamaa, H., Jacobsen, K. S., Jones, P., Jourdain, S., Kiss, A., Lin, K. E., Lorrey, A., Lundstad, E., Luterbacher, J., Mauelshagen, F., Maugeri, M., Moberg, A., Neukom, R., Nicholson, S., Noone, S., Nordli, Ø., Ólafsdóttir, K. B., Pearce, P. R., Pfister, L., Pribyl, K., Przybylak, R., Pudmenzky, C., Rasol, D., Reichenbach, D., Řezníčková, L., Rodrigo, F. S., Rohr, C., Skrynyk, O., Slonosky, V., Thorne, P., Valente, M. A., Vaquero, J. M., Westcottt, N. E., Williamson, F., and Wyszyński, P.: Unlocking pre-1850 instrumental meteorological records: A global inventory, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, ES389–ES413, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0040.1, 2019. a
Brückner, E.: Der Einfluß der Klimaschwankungen auf die Ernteerträge und Getreidepreise in Europa, Geogr. Z., 1, 39–51, 100–108, 1895. a
Brunt, L.: Weather shocks and English wheat yields, 1690–1871, Explor. Econ. Hist., 57, 50–58, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2014.12.001, 2015. a
Bunde, A., Büntgen, U., Ludescher, J., Luterbacher, J., and von Storch, H.: Is there memory in precipitation?, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 174–175, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1830, 2013. a
Büntgen, U., Frank, D. C., Nievergelt, D., and Esper, J.: Summer temperature variations in the European Alps, AD 755–2004, J. Climate, 19, 5606–5623, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3917.1, 2006. a, b
Büntgen, U., Franke, J., Frank, D., Wilson, R., González-Rouco, F., and Esper, J.: Assessing the spatial signature of European climate reconstructions, Clim. Res., 41, 125–130, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00848, 2010. a
Büntgen, U., Urban, O., Krusic, P. J., Rybníček, M., Kolář, T., Kyncl, T., Ač, A., Koňasová, E., Čáslavský, J., Esper, J., Wagner, S., Saurer, M., Tegel, W., Dobrovolný, P., Cherubini, P., Reinig, F., and Trnka, M.: Recent European drought extremes beyond Common Era background variability, Nat. Geosci., 14, 190–196, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00698-0, 2021. a
Camenisch, C.: Endlose Kälte: Witterungsverlauf und Getreidepreise in den Burgundischen Niederlanden im 15. Jahrhundert, Schwabe, Basel, https://doi.org/10.24894/978-3-7965-3474-4, 2015. a
Camenisch, C., Keller, K. M., Salvisberg, M., Amann, B., Bauch, M., Blumer, S., Brázdil, R., Brönnimann, S., Büntgen, U., Campbell, B. M. S., Fernández-Donado, L., Fleitmann, D., Glaser, R., González-Rouco, F., Grosjean, M., Hoffmann, R. C., Huhtamaa, H., Joos, F., Kiss, A., Kotyza, O., Lehner, F., Luterbacher, J., Maughan, N., Neukom, R., Novy, T., Pribyl, K., Raible, C. C., Riemann, D., Schuh, M., Slavin, P., Werner, J. P., and Wetter, O.: The 1430s: a cold period of extraordinary internal climate variability during the early Spörer Minimum with social and economic impacts in north-western and central Europe, Clim. Past, 12, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, 2016. a
Campbell, B. M.: Nature as historical protagonist: environment and society in pre-industrial England, Econ. Hist. Rev., 63, 281–314, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0289.2009.00492.x, 2010. a
Campbell, B. M.: The Great Transition: Climate, Disease and Society in the Late-Medieval World, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139031110, 2016. a, b, c
Campbell, B. M. and Ó Gráda, C.: Harvest shortfalls, grain prices, and famines in preindustrial England, J. Econ. Hist., 71, 859–886, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050711002178, 2011. a
Cantelaube, P. and Terres, J.-M.: Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in Europe, Tellus A, 57, 476–487, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14669, 2005. a
Collet, D.: Die doppelte Katastrophe: Klima und Kultur in der europäischen Hungerkrise 1770–1772, Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht, Göttingen, ISBN 978-3-525-35592-3, 2019. a
Cook, E. R., Seager, R., Kushnir, Y., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Frank, D., Krusic, P. J., Tegel, W., van der Schrier, G., Andreu-Hayles, L., Baillie, M., Baittinger, C., Bleicher, N., Bonde, N., Brown, D., Carrer, M., Cooper, R., Čufar, K., Dittmar, C., Esper, J., Griggs, C., Gunnarson, B., Günther, B., Gutierrez, E., Haneca, K., Helama, S., Herzig, F., Heussner, K.-U., Hofmann, J., Janda, P., Kontic, R., Köse, N., Kyncl, T., Levanič, T., Linderholm, H., Manning, S., Melvin, T. M., Miles, D., Neuwirth, B., Nicolussi, K., Nola, P., Panayotov, M., Popa, I., Rothe, A., Seftigen, K., Seim, A., Svarva, H., Svoboda, M., Thun, T., Timonen, M., Touchan, R., Trotsiuk, V., Trouet, V., Walder, F., Ważny, T., Wilson, R., and Zang, C.: Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era, Sci. Adv., 1, e1500561, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561, 2015. a, b, c, d, e
Cook, E. R., Solomina, O., Matskovsky, V., Cook, B. I., Agafonov, L., Berdnikova, A., Dolgova, E., Karpukhin, A., Knysh, N., Kulakova, M., Kuznetsova, V., Kyncl, T., Kyncl, J., Maximova, O., Panyushkina, I., Seim, A., Tishin, D., Ważny, T., and Yermokhin, M.: The European Russia Drought Atlas (1400–2016 CE), Clim. Dynam., 54, 2317–2335, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05115-2, 2020. a
Costello, E., Kearney, K., and Gearey, B.: Adapting to the Little Ice Age in pastoral regions: An interdisciplinary approach to climate history in north-west Europe, Hist. Methods, 56, 77–96, https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2022.2156958, 2023. a
D'Arrigo, R., Klinger, P., Newfield, T., Rydval, M., and Wilson, R.: Complexity in crisis: The volcanic cold pulse of the 1690s and the consequences of Scotland's failure to cope, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 389, 106746, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2019.106746, 2020. a, b
Degroot, D., Anchukaitis, K., Bauch, M., Burnham, J., Carnegy, F., Cui, J., de Luna, K., Guzowski, P., Hambrecht, G., Huhtamaa, H., Izdebski, A., Kleemann, K., Moesswilde, E., Neupane, N., Newfield, T., Pei, Q., Xoplaki, E., and Zappia, N.: Towards a rigorous understanding of societal responses to climate change, Nature, 591, 539–550, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03190-2, 2021. a
Dell, M., Jones, B. F., and Olken, B. A.: What do we learn from the weather? The new climate–economy literature, J. Econ. Lit., 52, 740–798, https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.52.3.740, 2014. a
Diggle, P., Diggle, P. J., Heagerty, P., Liang, K.-Y., and Zeger, S.: Analysis of Longitudinal Data, Oxford University Press, Oxford, ISBN 9780198524847, 2002. a
Dobrovolný, P., Moberg, A., Brázdil, R., Pfister, C., Glaser, R., Wilson, R., van Engelen, A., Limanówka, D., Kiss, A., Halíčková, M., Macková, J., Riemann, D., Luterbacher, J., and Böhm, R.: Monthly, seasonal and annual temperature reconstructions for Central Europe derived from documentary evidence and instrumental records since AD 1500, Clim. Change, 101, 69–107, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9724-x, 2010. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k
Edvinsson, R., Leijonhufvud, L., and Söderberg, J.: Väder, skördar och priser i Sverige, in: Agrarhistoria på många sätt: 28 studier om människan och jorden. Festskrift till Janken Myrdal på hans 60-årsdag, edited by: Liljewall, B., Flygare, I. A., Lange, U., Ljunggren, L., and Söderberg, J., 115–136, The Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry, Stockholm, ISBN 978-91-85205-91-2, 2009. a, b, c, d, e
Esper, J., Krusic, P. J., Ljungqvist, F. C., Luterbacher, J., Carrer, M., Cook, E., Davi, N. K., Hartl-Meier, C., Kirdyanov, A., Konter, O., Myglan, V., Timonen, M., Treydte, K., Trouet, V., Villalba, R., Yang, B., and Büntgen, U.: Ranking of tree-ring based temperature reconstructions of the past millennium, Quat. Sci. Rev., 145, 134–151, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.05.009, 2016. a
Esper, J., Büntgen, U., Denzer, S., Krusic, P. J., Luterbacher, J., Schäfer, R., Schreg, R., and Werner, J.: Environmental drivers of historical grain price variations in Europe, Clim. Res., 72, 39–52, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01449, 2017. a, b, c, d
Feliu, G.: Precios y salarios en la Cataluña moderna, Banco de España, Madrid, https://repositorio.bde.es/handle/123456789/7178 (last access: 2 December 2023), 1991. a
Forsberg, N., Russell, J., Macaulay, M., Leino, M., and Hagenblad, J.: Farmers without borders – genetic structuring in century old barley (Hordeum vulgare), Heredity, 114, 195–206, https://doi.org/10.1038/hdy.2014.83, 2015. a
Forsberg, N. E., Leino, M. W., and Hagenblad, J.: Population structure in landrace barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) during the late 19th century crop failures in Fennoscandia, Heredity, 123, 733–745, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41437-019-0277-0, 2019. a
Forssell, H.: Sverige 1571: Försök till en administrativ-statistisk beskrifning öfver det egentliga Sverige, utan Finland och Estland, Norstedt, Stockholm, http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:alvin:portal:record-184519, 1872. a
Franke, J., Frank, D., Raible, C. C., Esper, J., and Brönnimann, S.: Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 360–364, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1816, 2013. a
Gobin, A.: Impact of heat and drought stress on arable crop production in Belgium, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1911–1922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1911-2012, 2012. a
Granger, C. W. and Elliott, C.: A fresh look at wheat prices and markets in the eighteenth century, Econ. Hist. Rev., 20, 257–265, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0289.1967.tb00135.x, 1967. a
Granger, C. W. J.: Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods, Econometrica, 37, 424–438, https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791, 1969. a
Haldon, J., Mordechai, L., Newfield, T. P., Chase, A. F., Izdebski, A., Guzowski, P., Labuhn, I., and Roberts, N.: History meets palaeoscience: Consilience and collaboration in studying past societal responses to environmental change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 3210–3218, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1716912115, 2018. a
Hallberg, E., Leijonhufvud, L., Linde, M., and Andersson Palm, L.: Skördar i Sverige före agrarrevolutionen: Statistisk undersökning av det rörliga tiondet fr.o.m. 1665: Introduktion till databaser, Department of Historical Studies, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, http://hdl.handle.net/2077/42266 (last access: 1 December 2023), 2016. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m
Hamilton, E. J.: Money, Prices, and Wages in Valencia, Aragon, and Navarre, 1351–1500, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1936. a
Hanauer, A.: Études économiques sur l'Alsace ancienne et moderne, A. Durand & Pédone-Lauriel, Paris, https://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k1153437.texteImage (last access: 1 December 2023), 1878. a
Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., and Friedman, J.: The Elements of Statistical Learning, Springer, New York, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-84858-7, 2001. a
Head-Köenig, A.-L.: Les fluctuations des rendements et du produit décimal céréaliers dans quelques régions du plateau suisse (1500–1800), Revue Suisse d'histoire, 29, 575–604, https://doi.org/10.1515/9783112316047-018, 1979. a, b, c, d
Head-Köenig, A.-L. and Veyrassat-Herren, B.: Les revenus décimaux à Genève de 1540 à 1783, in: Les fluctuations du produit de la dîme: Conjoncture décimale et domaniale de la fin du Moyen Age au 18. siècle, edited by: Goy, J. and Le Roy Ladurie, E., 165–179, École pratique des hautes études, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1515/9783111413822, 1972. a
Hegardt, A.: Akademiens spannmål: uppbörd, handel och priser vid Uppsala universitet 1635–1719, PhD thesis, Uppsala University, 1975. a
Heino, M., Guillaume, J. H. A., Müller, C., Iizumi, T., and Kummu, M.: A multi-model analysis of teleconnected crop yield variability in a range of cropping systems, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 113–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-113-2020, 2020. a
Herschel, W.: Observations Tending to Investigate the Nature of the Sun, in Order to Find the Causes or Symptoms of Its Variable Emission of Light and Heat; With Remarks on the Use That May Possibly Be Drawn from Solar Observations, Philos. T. R. Soc., 91, 265–318, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstl.1801.0015, 1801. a
Hlavinka, P., Trnka, M., Semerádová, D., Dubrovský, M., Žalud, Z., and Možný, M.: Effect of drought on yield variability of key crops in Czech Republic, Agric. For. Meteorol., 149, 431–442, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.09.004, 2009. a
Hoffman, P. T.: Growth in a Traditional Society: The French Countryside, 1450–1815, Princeton University Press, Princeton, ISBN 9780691187204, 1996. a
Holopainen, J., Rickard, I. J., and Helama, S.: Climatic signatures in crops and grain prices in 19th-century Sweden, Holocene, 22, 939–945, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683611434220, 2012. a
Hoogenboom, G.: Contribution of agrometeorology to the simulation of crop production and its applications, Agric. For. Meteorol., 103, 137–157, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(00)00108-8, 2000. a
Huhtamaa, H. and Helama, S.: Distant impact: tropical volcanic eruptions and climate-driven agricultural crises in seventeenth-century Ostrobothnia, Finland, J. Hist. Geogr., 57, 40–51, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhg.2017.05.011, 2017. a
Huhtamaa, H. and Ljungqvist, F. C.: Climate in Nordic historical research – a research review and future perspectives, Scand. J. Hist., 46, 665–695, https://doi.org/10.1080/03468755.2021.1929455, 2021. a
Huhtamaa, H., Helama, S., Holopainen, J., Rethorn, C., and Rohr, C.: Crop yield responses to temperature fluctuations in 19th century Finland: Provincial variation in relation to climate and tree-rings, Boreal Environ. Res., 20, 707–723, 2015. a
Hulme, M.: Reducing the future to climate: a story of climate determinism and reductionism, Osiris, 26, 245–266, https://doi.org/10.1086/661274, 2011. a
Iizumi, T., Shiogama, H., Imada, Y., Hanasaki, N., Takikawa, H., and Nishimori, M.: Crop production losses associated with anthropogenic climate change for 1981–2010 compared with preindustrial levels, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 5405–5417, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5818, 2018. a
Izdebski, A., Mordechai, L., and White, S.: The social burden of resilience: a historical perspective, Hum. Ecol., 46, 291–303, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-018-0002-2, 2018. a
Jansson, A., Palm, L. A., and Söderberg, J.: Dagligt bröd i onda tider: Priser och löner i Stockholm och Västsverige 1500–1770, Department of Historical Studies, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, ISBN 9188162109, 1993. a
Jones, P. D.: Early European instrumental records, in: History and Climate: Memories of the Future?, edited by: Jones, P. D., Ogilvie, A. E. J., Davies, T., and Briffa, K., 55–77, Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3365-5_4, 2001. a
Kain, R.: Tithe as an index of pre-industrial agricultural production, Agric. Hist. Rev., 27, 73–81, 1979. a
Kiss, A.: Floods and Long-Term Water-Level Changes in Medieval Hungary, Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-38864-9, 2019. a
Landsteiner, E.: Wenig Brot und saurer Wein. Kontinuität und Wandel in der zentraleuropäischen Ernährungskultur im letzten Drittel des 16. Jahrhunderts, in: Kulturelle Konsequenzen der “Kleinen Eiszeit”, edited by: Behringer, W., Lehmann, H., and Pfister, C., 87–147, Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht, Göttingen, ISBN 9783525358641, 2005. a, b
Le Roy Ladurie, E.: Histoire du climat depuis l'an mil, Flammarion, Paris, ISBN 9782081451988, 1967. a
Lecerf, R., Ceglar, A., López-Lozano, R., Van Der Velde, M., and Baruth, B.: Assessing the information in crop model and meteorological indicators to forecast crop yield over Europe, Agric. Syst., 168, 191–202, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.03.002, 2019. a
Leijonhufvud, L., Wilson, R., Moberg, A., Söderberg, J., Retsö, D., and Söderlind, U.: Five centuries of Stockholm winter/spring temperatures reconstructed from documentary evidence and instrumental observations, Clim. Change, 101, 109–141, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9650-y, 2010. a, b, c
Leino, M. W.: Spannmål: svenska lantsorter, Nordiska museets förlag, Stockholm, ISBN 9789171085948, 2017. a
Lesnoff, M. and Lancelot, R: aod: Analysis of Overdispersed Data, R-project.org [code], https://cran.r-project.org/package=aod (last access: 28 November 2023), 2012. a
Ljungqvist, F. C. and Huhtamaa, H.: Histoire du climat du Royaume de Suède à l'époque modern, Nord. Hist. Rev., 27, 201–226, 2021. a
Ljungqvist, F. C., Seim, A., Krusic, P. J., González-Rouco, J. F., Werner, J. P., Cook, E. R., Zorita, E., Luterbacher, J., Xoplaki, E., Destouni, G., García-Bustamante, E., Aguilar, C. A. M., Seftigen, K., Wang, J., Gagen, M. H., Esper, J., Solomina, O., Fleitmann, D., and Büntgen, U.: European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 084015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2c7e, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f
Ljungqvist, F. C., Piermattei, A., Seim, A., Krusic, P. J., Büntgen, U., He, M., Kirdyanov, A. V., Luterbacher, J., Schneider, L., Seftigen, K., Stahle, D. W., Villalba, R., Yang, B., and Esper, J.: Ranking of tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions of the past millennium, Quat. Sci. Rev., 230, 106074, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.106074, 2020. a
Llopis, A. E., Amarilla, J. A. S., Sanz, J. U. B., Sánchez, Á. L. V., and Abarca, V. A.: ?`Descendió el producto agrario por habitante en la Europa moderna? El caso castellano, Investig. Hist. Econ., 14, 69–81, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ihe.2016.12.002, 2018. a
Luterbacher, J., Werner, J. P., Smerdon, J. E., Fernández-Donado, L., González-Rouco, F., Barriopedro, D., Ljungqvist, F. C., Büntgen, U., Zorita, E., Wagner, S., Esper, J., Frank, D., Barriendos, M., Bertolin, C., Bothe, O., Brázdil, R., Camuffo, D., Dobrovolný, P., Gagen, M., García-Bustamante, E., Ge, Q., Gómez-Navarro, J., Guiot, J., Hao, Z., Hegerl, G., Holmgren, K., Jungclaus, J., Klimenko, V., Martín-Chivelet, J., McCarroll, D., Pfister, C., Roberts, N., Schindler, A., Schurer, A., Solomina, O., Toreti, A., von Gunten, L., Wahl, E., Wanner, H., Wetter, O., Xoplaki, E., Yuan, N., Zanchettin, D., Zhang, H., and Zerefos, C.: European summer temperatures since Roman times, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 024001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001, 2016. a
Martin, P., Brown, T. A., George, T. S., Gunnarson, B., Loader, N. J., Ross, P., Wishart, J., and Wilson, R.: Climatic controls on the survival and loss of ancient types of barley on North Atlantic Islands, Clim. Change, 176, 4, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03474-0, 2023. a
Martínez-González, J. L., Suriñach, J., Jover, G., Martín-Vide, J., Barriendos-Vallvé, M., and Tello, E.: Assessing climate impacts on English economic growth (1645–1740): an econometric approach, Clim. Change, 160, 233–249, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02633-0, 2020. a
Mauelshagen, F.: Klimageschichte der Neuzeit, Wissenschaftliche Buchgesellschaft, Darmstadt, ISBN 978-3-534-21024-4, 2010. a
Michaelowa, A.: The impact of short-term climate change on British and French agriculture and population in the first half of the 18th century, in: History and Climate: Memories of the Future?, edited by: Jones, P. D., Ogilvie, A. E. J., Davies, T., and Briffa, K., 201–217, Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3365-5_10, 2001. a
Moore, F. C. and Lobell, D. B.: The fingerprint of climate trends on European crop yields, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 2670–2675, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1409606112, 2015. a
Mørch, H. F.: Mediterranean agriculture – an agro-ecological strategy, Geogr. Tidsskr.-Den., 1, 143–156, 1999. a
Moreda, V. P.: Spain, in: Famine in European History, edited by: Alfani, G. and Ó Gráda, C., 48–72, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316841235, 2017. a
Moreno, F. M., Solis, I., Barriendos, M., and Tejedor, E.: Correlations between historical climate data and incidents of common bunt in Spanish wheat, 1755–1801, Hist. Agrar., 82, 67–97, https://doi.org/10.26882/histagrar.082e08m, 2020. a, b, c, d
Muigg, B., Seim, A., Tegel, W., Werther, L., Herzig, F., Schmidt, J., Zielhofer, C., Land, A., and Büntgen, U.: Tree rings reveal dry conditions during Charlemagne's Fossa Carolina construction in 793 CE, Quat. Sci. Rev., 227, 106040, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.106040, 2020. a, b
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Paleoclimatology Program: Paleoclimatology, NOAA [data set], https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/paleoclimatology, last access: 1 December 2023. a
Newfield, T.: Domesticates, disease and climate in early post-classical Europe: the cattle plague of c. 940 and its environmental context, Post-Class. Archaeol., 5, 95–126, 2015. a
Parry, M.: Secular climatic change and marginal agriculture, Trans. Inst. Br. Geogr., 64, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.2307/621462, 1975. a
Parry, M.: The significance of the variability of summer warmth in upland Britain, Weather, 31, 212–217, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1976.tb04442.x, 1976. a
Parry, M. L.: Climatic Change, Agriculture and Settlement, Folkestone, Kent, ISBN-13 978-0712907941, 1978. a
Pei, Q., Zhang, D., Lee, H., and Li, G.: Crop management as an agricultural adaptation to climate change in early modern era: A comparative study of eastern and western Europe, Agriculture, 6, 29, https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture6030029, 2016. a
Peña-Gallardo, M., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Domínguez-Castro, F., and Beguería, S.: The impact of drought on the productivity of two rainfed crops in Spain, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1215–1234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1215-2019, 2019. a
Pfister, C.: Getreide-Erntebeginn und Frühsommertemperaturen im schweizerischen Mittelland seit dem 17. Jahrhundert, Geogr. Helv., 34, 23–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-34-23-1979, 1979. a, b, c
Pfister, C.: The early loss of ecological stability in an agrarian region, in: The Silent Countdown, edited by: Brimblecombe, P. and Pfister, C., 37–55, Springer, Berlin, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-75159-2, 1990. a
Pfister, C.: Monthly temperature and precipitation patterns in Central Europe from 1525 to the present: A methodology for quantifying man-made evidence on weather and climate, in: Climate Since A.D. 1500, edited by: Bradley, R. S. and Jones, P. D., 118–142, Routledge, London, ISBN 0-415-07593-9, 1992. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Pfister, C.: Little Ice Age-type impacts and the mitigation of social vulnerability to climate in the Swiss Canton of Bern prior to 1800, in: Sustainability or Collapse? An Integrated History and Future of People on Earth, edited by: Graumlich, L. and Costanza, R., The Mit Press, Cambridge, MA, ISBN-13 978-0-262-03366-4, 2007. a, b
Pfister, C. and Brázdil, R.: Climatic variability in sixteenth-century Europe and its social dimension: a synthesis, Clim. Change, 43, 5–53, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005585931899, 1999. a
Pribyl, K.: Farming, Famine and Plague: The Impact of Climate in Late Medieval England, Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-55953-7, 2017. a
R Core Team: R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, https://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 28 November 2023), 2022. a
Reichel, R., Thejll, P., and Lassen, K.: The cause-and-effect relationship of solar cycle length and the Northern Hemisphere air surface temperature, J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys., 106, 15635–15641, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JA900027, 2001. a
Rodrigo, F. S. and Barriendos, M.: Reconstruction of seasonal and annual rainfall variability in the Iberian peninsula (16th–20th centuries) from documentary data, Glob. Planet. Change, 63, 243–257, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.004, 2008. a, b
Santiago-Caballero, C.: The Rain in Spain? Climate versus urban demand as causes of agricultural stagnation in eighteenth-century Spain, Eur. Rev. Econ. Hist., 17, 452–470, https://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/het017, 2013a. a
Santiago-Caballero, C.: Trapped by nature: Provincial grain yields in Spain in the mid 18th century, Rev. Hist. Econ., 31, 359–386, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0212610913000165, 2013b. a, b
Santiago-Caballero, C.: Tithe series and grain production in central Spain, 1700–1800, Rural Hist., 25, 15–37, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0956793313000186, 2014. a
Scharnweber, T., Heußner, K.-U., Smiljanic, M., Heinrich, I., van der Maaten-Theunissen, M., van der Maaten, E., Struwe, T., Buras, A., and Wilmking, M.: Removing the no-analogue bias in modern accelerated tree growth leads to stronger medieval drought, Sci. Rep., 9, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39040-5, 2019. a
Schauberger, P. and Walker, A.: openxlsx: Read, Write and Edit xlsx Files, R-project.org [code], https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=openxlsx (last access: 28 November 2023), 2021. a
Schlenker, W. and Roberts, M.: Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 15594–15598, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0906865106, 2009. a
Schreiber, T. and Schmitz, A.: Surrogate time series, Physica D, 142, 346–382, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2789(00)00043-9, 2000. a
Scott, S., Duncan, S. R., and Duncan, C. J.: The origins, interactions and causes of the cycles in grain prices in England, 1450–1812, Agric. Hist. Rev., 46, 1–14, 1998. a
Seftigen, K., Goosse, H., Klein, F., and Chen, D.: Hydroclimate variability in Scandinavia over the last millennium – insights from a climate model–proxy data comparison, Clim. Past, 13, 1831–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, 2017. a, b, c
Simpson, J.: Spanish Agriculture: The Long Siesta, 1765–1965, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511523816, 1996. a, b, c
Skoglund, M. K.: Climate variability and grain production in Scania, 1702–1911, Clim. Past, 18, 405–433, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-405-2022, 2022. a, b, c, d
Svensk Nationell Datatjänst (SND): Swedish tithe data, SND [data set], https://snd.gu.se/sv/catalogue/study/snd0996, last access: 28 November 2023. a
Soens, T.: No second Lord: Agriculture and climatic variability in the late medieval Low Countries, in: Communities, Environment and Regulation in the Premodern World: Essays in Honour of Peter Hoppenbrouwers, edited by: Weeda, C., Stein, R., and Sicking, L., 71–98, Brepols, Turnhout, ISBN 978-2-503-59446-0, 2022. a, b
Stauffer, B. and Lüthi, A.: Wirtschaftsgeschichtliche Quellen im Dienste der Klimaforschung, Geogr. Helv., 30, 49–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-30-49-1975, 1975. a
Stoffel, M., Corona, C., Ludlow, F., Sigl, M., Huhtamaa, H., Garnier, E., Helama, S., Guillet, S., Crampsie, A., Kleemann, K., Camenisch, C., McConnell, J., and Gao, C.: Climatic, weather, and socio-economic conditions corresponding to the mid-17th-century eruption cluster, Clim. Past, 18, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1083-2022, 2022. a
Studer, R.: The Great Divergence Reconsidered, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, ISBN 978-1-107-02054-2, 2015. a
Sveriges Riksbank: The Stockholm grain price series, Historical Monetary Statistics of Sweden [data set], https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/statistics/historical-monetary, 28 November 2023. a
Tegel, W., Seim, A., Skiadaresis, G., Ljungqvist, F. C., Kahle, H.-P., Land, A., Muigg, B., Nicolussi, K., and Büntgen, U.: Higher groundwater levels in western Europe characterize warm periods in the Common Era, Sci. Rep., 10, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-73383-8, 2020. a, b
Torbenson, M. C., Büntgen, U., Esper, J., Urban, O., Balek, J., Reinig, F., Krusic, P. J., Martinez del Castillo, E., Brázdil, R., Semerádová, D., Štěpánek, P., Pernicová, N., Kolář, T., Rybníček, M., Koňasová, E., Arbelaez, J., and Trnka, M.: Central European agroclimate over the past 2000 years, J. Climate, 36, 4429–4441, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0831.1, 2023. a
Tornberg, M.: Ilmaston-ja sadonvaihtelut Lounais-Suomessa 1550-luvulta 1860-luvulle, Turun Hist. Ark., 44, 58–87, 1989. a
Trnka, M., Hlavinka, P., and Semenov, M. A.: Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change, J. R. Soc. Interface, 12, 20150721, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2015.0721, 2015. a
Trnka, M., Olesen, J. E., Kersebaum, K. C., Rötter, R. P., Brázdil, R., Eitzinger, J., Jansen, S., Skjelvåg, A. O., Peltonen-Sainio, P., Hlavinka, P., Balek, J., Eckersten, H., Gobin, A., Vučeti, V., Dalla Marta, A., Orlandini, S., Alexandrov, V., Semerádová, D., Štěpánek, P., Svobodová, E., and Rajdl, K.: Changing regional weather crop yield relationships across Europe between 1901 and 2012, Clim. Res., 70, 195–214, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01426, 2016. a, b, c
Utterström, G.: Jordbrukets arbetare: Levnadsvillkor och arbetsliv på landsbygden från frihetstiden till mitten av 1800-talet, Tiden, Stockholm, 1957. a
van Bavel, B. J., Curtis, D. R., Hannaford, M. J., Moatsos, M., Roosen, J., and Soens, T.: Climate and society in long-term perspective: Opportunities and pitfalls in the use of historical datasets, WIRES Clim. Change, 10, e611, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.611, 2019. a
Vogel, E., Donat, M. G., Alexander, L. V., Meinshausen, M., Deepak, R. K., Karoly, D., Meinshausen, N., and Frieler, K.: The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab154b, 2019. a
von Storch, H. and Zwiers, F.: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511612336, 1999. a
Wallach, D., Makowski, D., Jones, J. W., and Brun, F.: Working with Dynamic Crop Models: Evaluation, Analysis, Parameterization, and Applications, Elsevier, Amsterdam, ISBN 9780080461939, 2006. a
Wanner, H., Pfister, C., and Neukom, R.: The variable European Little Ice Age, Quat. Sci. Rev., 287, 107531, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107531, 2022. a
Wastenson, L., Raab, B., and Vedin, H.: Sveriges nationalatlas: Klimat, sjöar och vattendrag, Sveriges nationalatlas, Stockholm, ISBN 9187760312, 1995. a
Wei, T. and Simko, V.: R package “corrplot”: Visualization of a Correlation Matrix, GitHub [code], https://github.com/taiyun/corrplot (last access: 28 November 2023), 2021. a
Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Werner, J. P., Zorita, E., Wagner, S., Seneviratne, S. I., Herget, J., Grünewald, U., Luterbacher, J., Alcoforado, M.-J., Barriendos, M., Bieber, U., Brázdil, R., Burmeister, K. H., Camenisch, C., Contino, A., Dobrovolný, P., Glaser, R., Himmelsbach, I., Kiss, A., Kotyza, O., Labbé, T., Limanówka, D., Litzenburger, L., Nordl, Ø., Pribyl, K., Retsö, D., Riemann, D., Rohr, C., Siegfried, W., Söderberg, J., and Spring, J.-L.: The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case, Clim. Change, 125, 349–363, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2, 2014. a, b
White, S.: The real Little Ice Age, J. Interdiscip. Hist., 44, 327–352, https://doi.org/10.1162/JINH_a_00574, 2014. a
White, S., Brooke, J., and Pfister, C.: Climate, Weather, agriculture, and food, in: The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History, edited by: White, S., Pfister, C., and Mauelshagen, F., 331–353, Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-43020-5, 2018. a, b, c, d
White, S., Pei, Q., Kleemann, K., Dolák, L., Huhtamaa, H., and Camenisch, C.: New perspectives on historical climatology, WIRES Clim. Change, 14, e808, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.808, 2023. a
Xoplaki, E., Luterbacher, J., Paeth, H., Dietrich, D., Steiner, N., Grosjean, M., and Wanner, H.: European spring and autumn temperature variability and change of extremes over the last half millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15713, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023424, 2005. a, b
Yin, X., Kropff, M. J., and McLaren, G.: A nonlinear model for crop development as a function of temperature, Agric. For. Meteorol., 77, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-1923(95)02236-Q, 1995. a
Young, M.: Scottish crop yields in the second half of the seventeenth century: evidence from the Mains of Castle Lyon in the Carse of Gowrie, Agric. Hist. Rev., 55, 51–74, 2007. a
Związek, T., Guzowski, P., Poniat, R., Radomski, M. T., Kozłowska-Szyc, M., Panecki, T., Słowińska, S., Kruczkowska, B., Targowski, M., and Adamska, D.: On the economic impact of droughts in central Europe: the decade from 1531 to 1540 from the Polish perspective, Clim. Past, 18, 1541–1561, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1541-2022, 2022. a
Short summary
We study the climate signal in long harvest series from across Europe between the 16th and 18th centuries. The climate–harvest yield relationship is found to be relatively weak but regionally consistent and similar in strength and sign to modern climate–harvest yield relationships. The strongest climate–harvest yield patterns are a significant summer soil moisture signal in Sweden, a winter temperature and precipitation signal in Switzerland, and spring temperature signals in Spain.
We study the climate signal in long harvest series from across Europe between the 16th and 18th...
