Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1083-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1083-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 May 2022
Research article |
| 20 May 2022
| 20 May 2022
Climatic, weather, and socio-economic conditions corresponding to the mid-17th-century eruption cluster
Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene (C-CIA), Institute for
Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva,
Switzerland
Department F.-A. Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences,
University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
Christophe Corona
Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene (C-CIA), Institute for
Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
Geolab, Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, 63000,
Clermont-Ferrand, France
Francis Ludlow
Trinity Centre for Environmental Humanities, School of Histories and Humanities, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland
Michael Sigl
Climate and Environmental Physics and Oeschger Centre for Climate
Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Heli Huhtamaa
Institute of History and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Emmanuel Garnier
UMR 6249 CNRS Chrono-Environnement, University of Bourgogne
Franche-Comté, 25000, Besançon, France
Samuli Helama
Natural Resources Institute Finland, Ounasjoentie 6, 96200 Rovaniemi, Finland
Sébastien Guillet
Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene (C-CIA), Institute for
Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
Arlene Crampsie
School of Geography, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland
Katrin Kleemann
Department of History, University of Freiburg, 79085 Freiburg im
Breisgau, Germany
German Maritime Museum – Leibniz Institute for Maritime History,
27568 Bremerhaven, Germany
Chantal Camenisch
Institute of History and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Joseph McConnell
Division of Hydrologic Sciences, Desert Research Institute, 89512,
Reno, USA
Chaochao Gao
School of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
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Stefan Norrgård and Samuli Helama
The Cryosphere, 16, 2881–2898, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2881-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2881-2022, 2022
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We examined changes in the dates of ice break-ups in three Finnish rivers since the 1700s. The analyses show that ice break-ups nowadays occur earlier in spring than in previous centuries. The changes are pronounced in the south, and both rivers had their first recorded years without a complete ice cover in the 21st century. These events occurred during exceptionally warm winters and show that climate extremes affect the river-ice regime in southwest Finland differently than in the north.
Michael Sigl, Matthew Toohey, Joseph R. McConnell, Jihong Cole-Dai, and Mirko Severi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3167–3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3167-2022, 2022
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Volcanism is a key driver of climate. Based on ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, we reconstruct its climate impact potential over the Holocene. By aligning records on a well-dated chronology from Antarctica, we resolve long-standing inconsistencies in the dating of past volcanic eruptions. We reconstruct 850 eruptions (which, in total, injected 7410 Tg of sulfur in the stratosphere) and estimate how they changed the opacity of the atmosphere, a prerequisite for climate model simulations.
Helen Mackay, Gill Plunkett, Britta J. L. Jensen, Thomas J. Aubry, Christophe Corona, Woon Mi Kim, Matthew Toohey, Michael Sigl, Markus Stoffel, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Christoph Raible, Matthew S. M. Bolton, Joseph G. Manning, Timothy P. Newfield, Nicola Di Cosmo, Francis Ludlow, Conor Kostick, Zhen Yang, Lisa Coyle McClung, Matthew Amesbury, Alistair Monteath, Paul D. M. Hughes, Pete G. Langdon, Dan Charman, Robert Booth, Kimberley L. Davies, Antony Blundell, and Graeme T. Swindles
Clim. Past, 18, 1475–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, 2022
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We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant Northern Hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal response is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption even when it is precisely dated.
Sam White, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Davide Zanchettin, Heli Huhtamaa, Dagomar Degroot, Markus Stoffel, and Christophe Corona
Clim. Past, 18, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, 2022
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This study examines whether the 1600 Huaynaputina volcano eruption triggered persistent cooling in the North Atlantic. It compares previous paleoclimate simulations with new climate reconstructions from natural proxies and historical documents and finds that the reconstructions are consistent with, but do not support, an eruption trigger for persistent cooling. The study also analyzes societal impacts of climatic change in ca. 1600 and the use of historical observations in model–data comparison.
Xavier Faïn, Rachael H. Rhodes, Philip Place, Vasilii V. Petrenko, Kévin Fourteau, Nathan Chellman, Edward Crosier, Joseph R. McConnell, Edward J. Brook, Thomas Blunier, Michel Legrand, and Jérôme Chappellaz
Clim. Past, 18, 631–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-631-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-631-2022, 2022
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Carbon monoxide (CO) is a regulated pollutant and one of the key components determining the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. In this study, we analyzed five ice cores from Greenland at high resolution for CO concentrations by coupling laser spectrometry with continuous melting. By combining these new datasets, we produced an upper-bound estimate of past atmospheric CO abundance since preindustrial times for the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, covering the period from 1700 to 1957 CE.
Jiamei Lin, Anders Svensson, Christine S. Hvidberg, Johannes Lohmann, Steffen Kristiansen, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Eliza Cook, Helle Astrid Kjær, Bo M. Vinther, Hubertus Fischer, Thomas Stocker, Michael Sigl, Matthias Bigler, Mirko Severi, Rita Traversi, and Robert Mulvaney
Clim. Past, 18, 485–506, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-485-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-485-2022, 2022
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We employ acidity records from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores to estimate the emission strength, frequency and climatic forcing for large volcanic eruptions from the last half of the last glacial period. A total of 25 volcanic eruptions are found to be larger than any eruption in the last 2500 years, and we identify more eruptions than obtained from geological evidence. Towards the end of the glacial period, there is a notable increase in volcanic activity observed for Greenland.
Eva Boisson, Bruno Wilhelm, Emmanuel Garnier, Alain Mélo, Sandrine Anquetin, and Isabelle Ruin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 831–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-831-2022, 2022
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We present the database of Historical Impacts of Floods in the Arve Valley (HIFAVa). It reports flood occurrences and impacts (1850–2015) in a French Alpine catchment. Our results show an increasing occurrence of impacts from 1920 onwards, which is more likely related to indirect source effects and/or increasing exposure rather than hydrological changes. The analysis reveals that small mountain streams caused more impacts (67 %) than the main river.
Luuk Dorren, Frédéric Berger, Franck Bourrier, Nicolas Eckert, Charalampos Saroglou, Massimiliano Schwarz, Markus Stoffel, Daniel Trappmann, Hans-Heini Utelli, and Christine Moos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-32, 2022
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
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In the daily practice of rockfall hazard analysis, trajectory simulations are used to delimit runout zones. To do so, the expert needs to separate "realistic" from "unrealistic" simulated groups of trajectories. This is often done on the basis of reach probability values. This paper provides a basis for choosing a reach probability threshold value for delimiting the rockfall runout zone, based on recordings and simulations of recent rockfall events at 18 active rockfall sites in Europe.
Gill Plunkett, Michael Sigl, Hans F. Schwaiger, Emma L. Tomlinson, Matthew Toohey, Joseph R. McConnell, Jonathan R. Pilcher, Takeshi Hasegawa, and Claus Siebe
Clim. Past, 18, 45–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-45-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-45-2022, 2022
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We report the identification of volcanic ash associated with a sulfate layer in Greenland ice cores previously thought to have been from the Vesuvius 79 CE eruption and which had been used to confirm the precise dating of the Greenland ice-core chronology. We find that the tephra was probably produced by an eruption in Alaska. We show the importance of verifying sources of volcanic signals in ice cores through ash analysis to avoid errors in dating ice cores and interpreting volcanic impacts.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Stephan J. Lorenz, Michael Sigl, Matthew Toohey, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 17, 2481–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, 2021
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Using the comprehensive Earth system model, MPI-ESM1.2, we explore the global Holocene vegetation changes and interpret them in terms of the Holocene climate change. The model results reveal that most of the Holocene vegetation transitions seen outside the high northern latitudes can be attributed to modifications in the intensity of the global summer monsoons.
Ya Gao and Chaochao Gao
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-123, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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The atmospheric loading-to-ice cap deposition (LTD) factor is a key part of volcanic forcing reconstruction. We used a large collection of bipolar ice core records and Monte Carlo sampling to provide a new set of Tambora-based LTDs and characterize the uncertainties，while results also show that the LTD factor may vary significantly among different eruptions.
Woon Mi Kim, Richard Blender, Michael Sigl, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 2031–2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021, 2021
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To understand the natural characteristics and future changes of the global extreme daily precipitation, it is necessary to explore the long-term characteristics of extreme daily precipitation. Here, we used climate simulations to analyze the characteristics and long-term changes of extreme precipitation during the past 3351 years. Our findings indicate that extreme precipitation in the past is associated with internal climate variability and regional surface temperatures.
Guoxiong Zheng, Martin Mergili, Adam Emmer, Simon Allen, Anming Bao, Hao Guo, and Markus Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3159–3180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, 2021
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This paper reports on a recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event that occurred on 26 June 2020 in Tibet, China. We find that this event was triggered by a debris landslide from a steep lateral moraine. As the relationship between the long-term evolution of the lake and its likely landslide trigger revealed by a time series of satellite images, this case provides strong evidence that it can be plausibly linked to anthropogenic climate change.
David J. Nash, George C. D. Adamson, Linden Ashcroft, Martin Bauch, Chantal Camenisch, Dagomar Degroot, Joelle Gergis, Adrian Jusopović, Thomas Labbé, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Sharon D. Nicholson, Qing Pei, María del Rosario Prieto, Ursula Rack, Facundo Rojas, and Sam White
Clim. Past, 17, 1273–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1273-2021, 2021
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Qualitative evidence contained within historical sources provides an important record of climate variability for periods prior to the onset of systematic meteorological data collection. Before such evidence can be used for climate reconstructions, it needs to be converted to a quantitative format. A common approach is the generation of ordinal-scale climate indices. This review, written by members of the PAGES CRIAS working group, provides a global synthesis of the use of the index approach.
Peter M. Abbott, Gill Plunkett, Christophe Corona, Nathan J. Chellman, Joseph R. McConnell, John R. Pilcher, Markus Stoffel, and Michael Sigl
Clim. Past, 17, 565–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-565-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-565-2021, 2021
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Volcanic eruptions are a key source of climatic variability, and greater understanding of their past influence will increase the accuracy of future projections. We use volcanic ash from a 1477 CE Icelandic eruption in a Greenlandic ice core as a temporal fix point to constrain the timing of two eruptions in the 1450s CE and their climatic impact. Despite being the most explosive Icelandic eruption in the last 1200 years, the 1477 CE event had a limited impact on Northern Hemisphere climate.
Andreas Kääb, Tazio Strozzi, Tobias Bolch, Rafael Caduff, Håkon Trefall, Markus Stoffel, and Alexander Kokarev
The Cryosphere, 15, 927–949, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-927-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-927-2021, 2021
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We present a map of rock glacier motion over parts of the northern Tien Shan and time series of surface speed for six of them over almost 70 years.
This is by far the most detailed investigation of this kind available for central Asia.
We detect a 2- to 4-fold increase in rock glacier motion between the 1950s and present, which we attribute to atmospheric warming.
Relative to the shrinking glaciers in the region, this implies increased importance of periglacial sediment transport.
Chantal Camenisch and Melanie Salvisberg
Clim. Past, 16, 2173–2182, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2173-2020, 2020
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Droughts derive from a precipitation deficit and belong to the most dangerous natural hazards for human societies. Documentary data of the pre-modern and early modern times contain direct and indirect information on precipitation that allows for the production of reconstructions using historical climatology methods. For this study, two drought indices were created on the basis of documentary data produced in Bern, Switzerland, and Rouen, France, for the period from 1315 to 1715.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Martin Bauch, Chantal Camenisch, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Piotr Oliński, and Ladislava Řezníčková
Clim. Past, 16, 2125–2151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, 2020
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Previous studies related to historical droughts in the Czech Lands showed that the summers of 1531–1540 could represent the driest summer decade of the past 500 years. To confirm this hypothesis, documentary data from central Europe were collected and presented for individual summers and complemented by maps of precipitation and drought distribution to document corresponding weather patterns and their various impacts. The main droughts occurred in 1532, 1534–1536, 1538, and particularly in 1540.
James W. Kirchner, Sarah E. Godsey, Madeline Solomon, Randall Osterhuber, Joseph R. McConnell, and Daniele Penna
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5095–5123, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5095-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5095-2020, 2020
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Streams and groundwaters often show daily cycles in response to snowmelt and evapotranspiration. These typically have a roughly 6 h time lag, which is often interpreted as a travel-time lag. Here we show that it is instead primarily a phase lag that arises because aquifers integrate their inputs over time. We further show how these cycles shift seasonally, mirroring the springtime retreat of snow cover to higher elevations and the seasonal advance and retreat of photosynthetic activity.
Dimitri Osmont, Sandra Brugger, Anina Gilgen, Helga Weber, Michael Sigl, Robin L. Modini, Christoph Schwörer, Willy Tinner, Stefan Wunderle, and Margit Schwikowski
The Cryosphere, 14, 3731–3745, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3731-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3731-2020, 2020
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In this interdisciplinary case study, we were able to link biomass burning emissions from the June 2017 wildfires in Portugal to their deposition in the snowpack at Jungfraujoch, Swiss Alps. We analysed black carbon and charcoal in the snowpack, calculated backward trajectories, and monitored the fire evolution by remote sensing. Such case studies help to understand the representativity of biomass burning records in ice cores and how biomass burning tracers are archived in the snowpack.
Michael Fehlmann, Mario Rohrer, Annakaisa von Lerber, and Markus Stoffel
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 4683–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4683-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4683-2020, 2020
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The Thies disdrometer is used to monitor precipitation intensity and its phase and thus may provide valuable information for the management of meteorological and hydrological risks. In this study, we characterize biases of this instrument using common reference instruments at a pre-alpine study site in Switzerland. We find a systematic underestimation of liquid precipitation amounts and suggest possible reasons for and corrections to this bias and relate these findings to other study sites.
Anders Svensson, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Thomas Blunier, Sune O. Rasmussen, Bo M. Vinther, Paul Vallelonga, Emilie Capron, Vasileios Gkinis, Eliza Cook, Helle Astrid Kjær, Raimund Muscheler, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Frank Wilhelms, Thomas F. Stocker, Hubertus Fischer, Florian Adolphi, Tobias Erhardt, Michael Sigl, Amaelle Landais, Frédéric Parrenin, Christo Buizert, Joseph R. McConnell, Mirko Severi, Robert Mulvaney, and Matthias Bigler
Clim. Past, 16, 1565–1580, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1565-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1565-2020, 2020
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We identify signatures of large bipolar volcanic eruptions in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during the last glacial period, which allows for a precise temporal alignment of the ice cores. Thereby the exact timing of unexplained, abrupt climatic changes occurring during the last glacial period can be determined in a global context. The study thus provides a step towards a full understanding of elements of the climate system that may also play an important role in the future.
Kirstin Hoffmann, Francisco Fernandoy, Hanno Meyer, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Marcelo Aliaga, Dieter Tetzner, Johannes Freitag, Thomas Opel, Jorge Arigony-Neto, Christian Florian Göbel, Ricardo Jaña, Delia Rodríguez Oroz, Rebecca Tuckwell, Emily Ludlow, Joseph R. McConnell, and Christoph Schneider
The Cryosphere, 14, 881–904, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-881-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-881-2020, 2020
Dominic A. Winski, Tyler J. Fudge, David G. Ferris, Erich C. Osterberg, John M. Fegyveresi, Jihong Cole-Dai, Zayta Thundercloud, Thomas S. Cox, Karl J. Kreutz, Nikolas Ortman, Christo Buizert, Jenna Epifanio, Edward J. Brook, Ross Beaudette, Jeffrey Severinghaus, Todd Sowers, Eric J. Steig, Emma C. Kahle, Tyler R. Jones, Valerie Morris, Murat Aydin, Melinda R. Nicewonger, Kimberly A. Casey, Richard B. Alley, Edwin D. Waddington, Nels A. Iverson, Nelia W. Dunbar, Ryan C. Bay, Joseph M. Souney, Michael Sigl, and Joseph R. McConnell
Clim. Past, 15, 1793–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1793-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1793-2019, 2019
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A deep ice core was recently drilled at the South Pole to understand past variations in the Earth's climate. To understand the information contained within the ice, we present the relationship between the depth and age of the ice in the South Pole Ice Core. We found that the oldest ice in our record is from 54 302 ± 519 years ago. Our results show that, on average, 7.4 cm of snow falls at the South Pole each year.
James A. Menking, Edward J. Brook, Sarah A. Shackleton, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Michael N. Dyonisius, Vasilii Petrenko, Joseph R. McConnell, Rachael H. Rhodes, Thomas K. Bauska, Daniel Baggenstos, Shaun Marcott, and Stephen Barker
Clim. Past, 15, 1537–1556, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1537-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1537-2019, 2019
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An ice core from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica, spans a period ~ 70 000 years ago when Earth entered the last ice age. Chemical analyses of the ice and air bubbles allow for an independent determination of the ages of the ice and gas bubbles. The difference between the age of the ice and the bubbles at any given depth, called ∆age, is unusually high in the Taylor Glacier core compared to the Taylor Dome ice core situated to the south. This implies a dramatic accumulation gradient between the sites.
Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Marina V. Fonti, Matthias Saurer, Sébastien Guillet, Christophe Corona, Patrick Fonti, Vladimir S. Myglan, Alexander V. Kirdyanov, Oksana V. Naumova, Dmitriy V. Ovchinnikov, Alexander V. Shashkin, Irina P. Panyushkina, Ulf Büntgen, Malcolm K. Hughes, Eugene A. Vaganov, Rolf T. W. Siegwolf, and Markus Stoffel
Clim. Past, 15, 685–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-685-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-685-2019, 2019
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We present a unique dataset of multiple tree-ring and stable isotope parameters, representing temperature-sensitive Siberian ecotones, to assess climatic impacts after six large stratospheric volcanic eruptions at 535, 540, 1257, 1640, 1815, and 1991 CE. Besides the well-documented effects of temperature derived from tree-ring width and latewood density, stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in tree-ring cellulose provide information about moisture and sunshine duration changes after the events.
Yasser Hamdi, Emmanuel Garnier, Nathalie Giloy, Claire-Marie Duluc, and Vincent Rebour
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3383–3402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3383-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3383-2018, 2018
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As coastal zones are densely populated, marine flooding represents a hazard threatening populations and facilities (e.g., nuclear plants) along the shore. Using historical data can significantly improve the analysis of extremes. To address this issue, 500 years of historical storms were recovered from archives and used in frequency estimations of marine flooding extremes. The new dataset provides a valuable source of information on storm surges for future characterization of coastal hazards.
Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva, Alexandre Badoux, Dieter Rickenmann, Martin Böckli, Salome Schläfli, Nicolas Steeb, Markus Stoffel, and Christian Rickli
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 1115–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1115-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1115-2018, 2018
Mackenzie M. Grieman, Murat Aydin, Joseph R. McConnell, and Eric S. Saltzman
Clim. Past, 14, 1625–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1625-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1625-2018, 2018
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Vanillic acid is reported in the Tunu ice core from northeastern Greenland. It is an aerosol-borne acid produced by biomass burning. North American boreal forests are likely the source regions of the vanillic acid deposited at the ice core site. Vanillic acid levels were elevated during warm climate periods and lower during cooler climate periods. There is a positive correlation between the vanillic acid ice core record and ammonium and black carbon in the NEEM ice core from northern Greenland.
Hans W. Linderholm, Marie Nicolle, Pierre Francus, Konrad Gajewski, Samuli Helama, Atte Korhola, Olga Solomina, Zicheng Yu, Peng Zhang, William J. D'Andrea, Maxime Debret, Dmitry V. Divine, Björn E. Gunnarson, Neil J. Loader, Nicolas Massei, Kristina Seftigen, Elizabeth K. Thomas, Johannes Werner, Sofia Andersson, Annika Berntsson, Tomi P. Luoto, Liisa Nevalainen, Saija Saarni, and Minna Väliranta
Clim. Past, 14, 473–514, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-473-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-473-2018, 2018
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This paper reviews the current knowledge of Arctic hydroclimate variability during the past 2000 years. We discuss the current state, look into the future, and describe various archives and proxies used to infer past hydroclimate variability. We also provide regional overviews and discuss the potential of furthering our understanding of Arctic hydroclimate in the past. This paper summarises the hydroclimate-related activities of the Arctic 2k group.
Katrina M. Macdonald, Sangeeta Sharma, Desiree Toom, Alina Chivulescu, Andrew Platt, Mike Elsasser, Lin Huang, Richard Leaitch, Nathan Chellman, Joseph R. McConnell, Heiko Bozem, Daniel Kunkel, Ying Duan Lei, Cheol-Heon Jeong, Jonathan P. D. Abbatt, and Greg J. Evans
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3485–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3485-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3485-2018, 2018
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The sources of key contaminants in Arctic snow may be an important factor in understanding the rapid climate changes observed in the Arctic. Fresh snow samples collected frequently through the winter season were analyzed for major constituents. Temporally refined source apportionment via positive matrix factorization in conjunction with FLEXPART suggested potential source characteristics and locations. The identity of these sources and their relative contribution to key analytes is discussed.
Martin Beniston, Daniel Farinotti, Markus Stoffel, Liss M. Andreassen, Erika Coppola, Nicolas Eckert, Adriano Fantini, Florie Giacona, Christian Hauck, Matthias Huss, Hendrik Huwald, Michael Lehning, Juan-Ignacio López-Moreno, Jan Magnusson, Christoph Marty, Enrique Morán-Tejéda, Samuel Morin, Mohamed Naaim, Antonello Provenzale, Antoine Rabatel, Delphine Six, Johann Stötter, Ulrich Strasser, Silvia Terzago, and Christian Vincent
The Cryosphere, 12, 759–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-759-2018, 2018
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This paper makes a rather exhaustive overview of current knowledge of past, current, and future aspects of cryospheric issues in continental Europe and makes a number of reflections of areas of uncertainty requiring more attention in both scientific and policy terms. The review paper is completed by a bibliography containing 350 recent references that will certainly be of value to scholars engaged in the fields of glacier, snow, and permafrost research.
Rachael H. Rhodes, Xin Yang, Eric W. Wolff, Joseph R. McConnell, and Markus M. Frey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9417–9433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9417-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9417-2017, 2017
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Sea salt aerosol comes from the open ocean or the sea ice surface. In the polar regions, this opens up the possibility of reconstructing sea ice history using sea salt recorded in ice cores. We use a chemical transport model to demonstrate that the sea ice source of aerosol is important in the Arctic. For the first time, we simulate realistic Greenland ice core sea salt in a process-based model. The importance of the sea ice source increases from south to north across the Greenland ice sheet.
Juliana D'Andrilli, Christine M. Foreman, Michael Sigl, John C. Priscu, and Joseph R. McConnell
Clim. Past, 13, 533–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-533-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-533-2017, 2017
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Climate-driven trends in fluorescent organic matter (OM) markers from Antarctic ice cores revealed fluctuations over 21.0 kyr, reflecting environmental shifts as a result of global ecosystem response in a warming climate. Precursors of lignin-like fluorescent chemical species were detected as OM markers from the Last Glacial Maximum to the mid-Holocene. Holocene ice contained the most complex lignin-like fluorescent OM markers. Thus, ice cores contain paleoecological OM markers of Earth’s past.
Katrina M. Macdonald, Sangeeta Sharma, Desiree Toom, Alina Chivulescu, Sarah Hanna, Allan K. Bertram, Andrew Platt, Mike Elsasser, Lin Huang, David Tarasick, Nathan Chellman, Joseph R. McConnell, Heiko Bozem, Daniel Kunkel, Ying Duan Lei, Greg J. Evans, and Jonathan P. D. Abbatt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5775–5788, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5775-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5775-2017, 2017
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Rapid climate changes within the Arctic have highlighted existing uncertainties in the transport of contaminants to Arctic snow. Fresh snow samples collected frequently through the winter season were analyzed for major constituents creating a unique record of Arctic snow. Comparison with simultaneous atmospheric measurements provides insight into the driving processes in the transfer of contaminants from air to snow. The relative importance of deposition mechanisms over the season is proposed.
Mackenzie M. Grieman, Murat Aydin, Diedrich Fritzsche, Joseph R. McConnell, Thomas Opel, Michael Sigl, and Eric S. Saltzman
Clim. Past, 13, 395–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-395-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-395-2017, 2017
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Wildfires impact ecosystems, climate, and atmospheric chemistry. Records that predate instrumental records and industrialization are needed to study the climatic controls on biomass burning. In this study, we analyzed organic chemicals produced from burning of plant matter that were preserved in an ice core from the Eurasian Arctic. These chemicals are elevated during three periods that have similar timing to climate variability. This is the first millennial-scale record of these chemicals.
Christine Moos, Luuk Dorren, and Markus Stoffel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 291–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-291-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-291-2017, 2017
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The goal of this study was to quantify the effect of forests on the occurrence frequency and intensity of rockfalls. This was done based on 3-D rockfall simulations for different forest and non-forest scenarios on a virtual slope. The rockfall frequency and intensity below forested slopes is significantly reduced. Statistical models provide information on how specific forest and terrain parameters influence this reduction and they allow prediction and quantification of the forest effect.
Olivia J. Maselli, Nathan J. Chellman, Mackenzie Grieman, Lawrence Layman, Joseph R. McConnell, Daniel Pasteris, Rachael H. Rhodes, Eric Saltzman, and Michael Sigl
Clim. Past, 13, 39–59, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-39-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-39-2017, 2017
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We analysed two Greenland ice cores for methanesulfonate (MSA) and bromine (Br) and concluded that both species are suitable proxies for local sea ice conditions. Interpretation of the records reveals that there have been sharp declines in sea ice in these areas in the past 250 years. However, at both sites the Br record deviates from MSA during the industrial period, raising questions about the value of Br as a sea ice proxy during recent periods of high, industrial, atmospheric acid pollution.
Chantal Camenisch, Kathrin M. Keller, Melanie Salvisberg, Benjamin Amann, Martin Bauch, Sandro Blumer, Rudolf Brázdil, Stefan Brönnimann, Ulf Büntgen, Bruce M. S. Campbell, Laura Fernández-Donado, Dominik Fleitmann, Rüdiger Glaser, Fidel González-Rouco, Martin Grosjean, Richard C. Hoffmann, Heli Huhtamaa, Fortunat Joos, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Flavio Lehner, Jürg Luterbacher, Nicolas Maughan, Raphael Neukom, Theresa Novy, Kathleen Pribyl, Christoph C. Raible, Dirk Riemann, Maximilian Schuh, Philip Slavin, Johannes P. Werner, and Oliver Wetter
Clim. Past, 12, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, 2016
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Throughout the last millennium, several cold periods occurred which affected humanity. Here, we investigate an exceptionally cold decade during the 15th century. The cold conditions challenged the food production and led to increasing food prices and a famine in parts of Europe. In contrast to periods such as the “Year Without Summer” after the eruption of Tambora, these extreme climatic conditions seem to have occurred by chance and in relation to the internal variability of the climate system.
Michel Legrand, Joseph McConnell, Hubertus Fischer, Eric W. Wolff, Susanne Preunkert, Monica Arienzo, Nathan Chellman, Daiana Leuenberger, Olivia Maselli, Philip Place, Michael Sigl, Simon Schüpbach, and Mike Flannigan
Clim. Past, 12, 2033–2059, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2033-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2033-2016, 2016
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Here, we review previous attempts made to reconstruct past forest fire using chemical signals recorded in Greenland ice. We showed that the Greenland ice records of ammonium, found to be a good fire proxy, consistently indicate changing fire activity in Canada in response to past climatic conditions that occurred since the last 15 000 years, including the Little Ice Age and the last large climatic transition.
Lora S. Koenig, Alvaro Ivanoff, Patrick M. Alexander, Joseph A. MacGregor, Xavier Fettweis, Ben Panzer, John D. Paden, Richard R. Forster, Indrani Das, Joesph R. McConnell, Marco Tedesco, Carl Leuschen, and Prasad Gogineni
The Cryosphere, 10, 1739–1752, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1739-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1739-2016, 2016
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Contemporary climate warming over the Arctic is accelerating mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through increasing surface melt, emphasizing the need to closely monitor surface mass balance in order to improve sea-level rise predictions. Here, we quantify the net annual accumulation over the Greenland Ice Sheet, which comprises the largest component of surface mass balance, at a higher spatial resolution than currently available using high-resolution, airborne-radar data.
Nathan J. Chellman, Meredith G. Hastings, and Joseph R. McConnell
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-163, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-163, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This manuscript analyzes the changing sources of nitrate deposition to Greenland since 1760 CE using a dataset consisting of sub-seasonally resolved nitrogen isotopes of nitrate and source tracers. Correlations amongst ion concentration, source tracers, and the δ15N–NO3− provide evidence of the impact of biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion emissions of nitrogen oxides and suggest that oil combustion is the likely driver of increased nitrate concentration in Greenland ice since 1940 CE.
Rachael H. Rhodes, Xavier Faïn, Edward J. Brook, Joseph R. McConnell, Olivia J. Maselli, Michael Sigl, Jon Edwards, Christo Buizert, Thomas Blunier, Jérôme Chappellaz, and Johannes Freitag
Clim. Past, 12, 1061–1077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1061-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1061-2016, 2016
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Local artifacts in ice core methane data are superimposed on consistent records of past atmospheric variability. These artifacts are not related to past atmospheric history and care should be taken to avoid interpreting them as such. By investigating five polar ice cores from sites with different conditions, we relate isolated methane spikes to melt layers and decimetre-scale variations as "trapping signal" associated with a difference in timing of air bubble closure in adjacent firn layers.
Michael Sigl, Tyler J. Fudge, Mai Winstrup, Jihong Cole-Dai, David Ferris, Joseph R. McConnell, Ken C. Taylor, Kees C. Welten, Thomas E. Woodruff, Florian Adolphi, Marion Bisiaux, Edward J. Brook, Christo Buizert, Marc W. Caffee, Nelia W. Dunbar, Ross Edwards, Lei Geng, Nels Iverson, Bess Koffman, Lawrence Layman, Olivia J. Maselli, Kenneth McGwire, Raimund Muscheler, Kunihiko Nishiizumi, Daniel R. Pasteris, Rachael H. Rhodes, and Todd A. Sowers
Clim. Past, 12, 769–786, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-769-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-769-2016, 2016
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Here we present a chronology (WD2014) for the upper part (0–2850 m; 31.2 ka BP) of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core, which is based on layer counting of distinctive annual cycles preserved in the elemental, chemical and electrical conductivity records. We validated the chronology by comparing it to independent high-accuracy, absolutely dated chronologies. Given its demonstrated high accuracy, WD2014 can become a reference chronology for the Southern Hemisphere.
A. Spolaor, T. Opel, J. R. McConnell, O. J. Maselli, G. Spreen, C. Varin, T. Kirchgeorg, D. Fritzsche, A. Saiz-Lopez, and P. Vallelonga
The Cryosphere, 10, 245–256, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-245-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-245-2016, 2016
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The role of sea ice in the Earth climate system is still under debate, although it is known to influence albedo, ocean circulation, and atmosphere-ocean heat and gas exchange. Here we present a reconstruction of 1950 to 1998 AD sea ice in the Laptev Sea based on the Akademii Nauk ice core (Severnaya Zemlya, Russian Arctic) and halogen measurements. The results suggest a connection between bromine and sea ice, as well as a connection between iodine concentration in snow and summer sea ice.
P. Kuipers Munneke, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, B. P. Y. Noël, I. M. Howat, J. E. Box, E. Mosley-Thompson, J. R. McConnell, K. Steffen, J. T. Harper, S. B. Das, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 9, 2009–2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2009-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2009-2015, 2015
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The snow layer on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing: it is thickening in the high and cold interior due to increased snowfall, while it is thinning around the margins. The marginal thinning is caused by compaction, and by more melt.
This knowledge is important: there are satellites that measure volume change of the ice sheet. It can be caused by increased ice discharge, or by compaction of the snow layer. Here, we quantify the latter, so that we can translate volume to mass change.
C. Camenisch
Clim. Past, 11, 1049–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1049-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1049-2015, 2015
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This paper applies the methods of historical climatology to present a climate reconstruction for the area of the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century. The results are based on documentary evidence. Approximately 3000 written records derived from about 100 different sources were examined and converted into seasonal seven-degree indices of temperature and precipitation.
V. Masson-Delmotte, H. C. Steen-Larsen, P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, T. Popp, B. M. Vinther, H. Oerter, A. E. Sveinbjornsdottir, H. Gudlaugsdottir, J. E. Box, S. Falourd, X. Fettweis, H. Gallée, E. Garnier, V. Gkinis, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, N. Paradis, A. Orsi, C. Risi, M. Werner, and J. W. C. White
The Cryosphere, 9, 1481–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, 2015
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The deep NEEM ice core provides the oldest Greenland ice core record, enabling improved understanding of the response of ice core records to local climate. Here, we focus on shallow ice cores providing a stack record of accumulation and water-stable isotopes spanning the past centuries. For the first time, we document the ongoing warming in a Greenland ice core. By combining our data with other Greenland ice cores and model results, we characterise the spatio-temporal patterns of variability.
M. Jochner, J. M. Turowski, A. Badoux, M. Stoffel, and C. Rickli
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 311–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-311-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-311-2015, 2015
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The export of coarse particulate organic matter (CPOM) from mountain catchments seems to be strongly linked to rising discharge, but the mechanism leading to this is unclear. We show that log jams in a steep headwater stream are an effective barrier for CPOM export. Exceptional discharge events play a dual role: First, they destroy existing jams, releasing stored material. Second, they intensify channel--hillslope coupling, thereby recruiting logs to the channel, around which new jams can form.
E. Garnier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-6541-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-6541-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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The floods were classified according to a severity scale derived from the contents of the historical sources. It enables an evaluation of these events in spite of the lack of instrumental data for the major part of period. It shows that the chronology and the severity of the floods in this part of England were contradictory from one century to another. We then shows that local societies at the time did not passively suffer the risk of flood.
E. Garnier, J. Desarthe, and D. Moncoulon
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-1519-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-1519-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Facing climate change and increasing costs of natural disasters, the exposure analysis requires having a long-term knowledge of the impacts of extreme events. The research based on historical archives made it possible to reconstruct, for the first time, the chronology and severity of hurricanes in the French Antilles since the 17th century. The analysis of a historical period highlights the variability of cyclonic activity and the interest of pluridisciplinary scientific perspectives.
A. F. Van Loon, S. W. Ploum, J. Parajka, A. K. Fleig, E. Garnier, G. Laaha, and H. A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1993–2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1993-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1993-2015, 2015
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Hydrological drought types in cold climates have complex causing factors and impacts. In Austria and Norway, a lack of snowmelt is mainly related to below-normal winter precipitation, and a lack of glaciermelt is mainly related to below-normal summer temperature. These and other hydrological drought types impacted hydropower production, water supply, and agriculture in Europe and the US in the recent and far past. For selected drought events in Norway impacts could be coupled to causing factors.
C. Buizert, K. M. Cuffey, J. P. Severinghaus, D. Baggenstos, T. J. Fudge, E. J. Steig, B. R. Markle, M. Winstrup, R. H. Rhodes, E. J. Brook, T. A. Sowers, G. D. Clow, H. Cheng, R. L. Edwards, M. Sigl, J. R. McConnell, and K. C. Taylor
Clim. Past, 11, 153–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-153-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-153-2015, 2015
H. Frey, H. Machguth, M. Huss, C. Huggel, S. Bajracharya, T. Bolch, A. Kulkarni, A. Linsbauer, N. Salzmann, and M. Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 8, 2313–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, 2014
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Existing methods (area–volume relations, a slope-dependent volume estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models) are used to estimate the ice reserves stored in Himalayan–Karakoram glaciers. Resulting volumes range from 2955–4737km³. Results from the ice-thickness distribution models agree well with local measurements; volume estimates from area-related relations exceed the estimates from the other approaches. Evidence on the effect of the selected method on results is provided.
P. Zennaro, N. Kehrwald, J. R. McConnell, S. Schüpbach, O. J. Maselli, J. Marlon, P. Vallelonga, D. Leuenberger, R. Zangrando, A. Spolaor, M. Borrotti, E. Barbaro, A. Gambaro, and C. Barbante
Clim. Past, 10, 1905–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1905-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1905-2014, 2014
B. Medley, I. Joughin, B. E. Smith, S. B. Das, E. J. Steig, H. Conway, S. Gogineni, C. Lewis, A. S. Criscitiello, J. R. McConnell, M. R. van den Broeke, J. T. M. Lenaerts, D. H. Bromwich, J. P. Nicolas, and C. Leuschen
The Cryosphere, 8, 1375–1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, 2014
E. D. Sofen, B. Alexander, E. J. Steig, M. H. Thiemens, S. A. Kunasek, H. M. Amos, A. J. Schauer, M. G. Hastings, J. Bautista, T. L. Jackson, L. E. Vogel, J. R. McConnell, D. R. Pasteris, and E. S. Saltzman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5749–5769, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5749-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5749-2014, 2014
X. Faïn, J. Chappellaz, R. H. Rhodes, C. Stowasser, T. Blunier, J. R. McConnell, E. J. Brook, S. Preunkert, M. Legrand, T. Debois, and D. Romanini
Clim. Past, 10, 987–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-987-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-987-2014, 2014
J.-F. Lamarque, F. Dentener, J. McConnell, C.-U. Ro, M. Shaw, R. Vet, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, S. Dalsoren, R. Doherty, G. Faluvegi, S. J. Ghan, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, D. Plummer, D. T. Shindell, R. B. Skeie, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, G. Zeng, M. Curran, D. Dahl-Jensen, S. Das, D. Fritzsche, and M. Nolan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7997–8018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7997-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7997-2013, 2013
Y. H. Lee, J.-F. Lamarque, M. G. Flanner, C. Jiao, D. T. Shindell, T. Berntsen, M. M. Bisiaux, J. Cao, W. J. Collins, M. Curran, R. Edwards, G. Faluvegi, S. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, J. R. McConnell, J. Ming, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, K. Sudo, T. Takemura, F. Thevenon, B. Xu, and J.-H. Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2607–2634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013, 2013
K. M. Sterle, J. R. McConnell, J. Dozier, R. Edwards, and M. G. Flanner
The Cryosphere, 7, 365–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-365-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-365-2013, 2013
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Short summary
The mid-17th century saw several volcanic eruptions, deteriorating climate, political instability, and famine in Europe, China, and Japan. We analyze impacts of the eruptions on climate but also study their socio-political context. We show that an unambiguous distinction of volcanic cooling or wetting from natural climate variability is not straightforward. It also shows that political instability, poor harvest, and famine cannot only be attributed to volcanic climatic impacts.
The mid-17th century saw several volcanic eruptions, deteriorating climate, political...
