Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-123
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-123

  11 Oct 2021

11 Oct 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal CP.

Uncertainties in the atmospheric loading to ice-sheet deposition for volcanic aerosols and implications for forcing reconstruction

Ya Gao1,2 and Chaochao Gao1,2 Ya Gao and Chaochao Gao
  • 1College of Environmental and Resource Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
  • 2Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Organic Pollution Process and Control , Hangzhou 310058, China

Abstract. Volcanic radiative forcing reconstruction is an important part of paleoclimate simulation and attribution efforts, and the conversion factor used to transfer ice core-based sulfate observation into stratospheric volcanic aerosol loading (LTD factor) is critical for such reconstruction. A Pinatubo-based LTD combing observations of nuclear tomb test debris in Greenland and volcanic sulfate aerosols in Antarctic was derived and widely applied in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. This study revisits the LTD factor, by using 58 polar ice core records of volcanic depositions and a Monte Carlo sampling model. A set of Tambora-based LTDs with associated uncertainties are obtained, which corrects the bias of over-representing the west Antarctic. New LTDs for Pinatubo and Agung are calculated using 18 and 24 Antarctic ice core observations, respectively, and the uncertainties are evaluated against the Monte Carlo characterization with varying ice core numbers. The comparison of Southern Hemispheric LTD among Tambora, Pinatubo and Agung suggests that, the conversion factor may vary significantly among different eruptions. Even larger uncertainty is revealed when compare the ice-core-based conversion factor with the model results. Both results suggest systematic and stochastic causes that are difficult to anticipate, and call for precaution when single conversion factor is used for reconstruction.

Ya Gao and Chaochao Gao

Status: open (until 06 Dec 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Ya Gao and Chaochao Gao

Ya Gao and Chaochao Gao

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Short summary
The atmospheric loading-to-ice cap deposition (LTD) factor is a key part of volcanic forcing reconstruction. We used a large collection of bipolar ice core records and Monte Carlo sampling to provide a new set of Tambora-based LTDs and characterize the uncertainties,while results also show that the LTD factor may vary significantly among different eruptions.