Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Apr 2019
Research article |
| 05 Apr 2019
| 05 Apr 2019
Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments
François Klein
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute
(ELI),
Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium
Nerilie J. Abram
Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
Mark A. J. Curran
Australian Antarctic Division, 203 Channel Highway, Kingston, Tasmania 7050, Australia
Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
Hugues Goosse
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute
(ELI),
Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium
Sentia Goursaud
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (IPSL/CEA-CNRS-UVSQ UMR 8212),
CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE), Université Grenoble Alpes, 38041 Grenoble, France
Valérie Masson-Delmotte
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (IPSL/CEA-CNRS-UVSQ UMR 8212),
CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Andrew Moy
Australian Antarctic Division, 203 Channel Highway, Kingston, Tasmania 7050, Australia
Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
Raphael Neukom
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research & Institute of Geography, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Anaïs Orsi
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (IPSL/CEA-CNRS-UVSQ UMR 8212),
CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Jesper Sjolte
Department of Geology – Quaternary Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62, Lund, Sweden
Nathan Steiger
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
Barbara Stenni
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy
Institute for the Dynamics of Environmental Processes, CNR, Venice, Italy
Martin Werner
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Related authors
Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 17, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using idealized sensitivity experiments with a regional atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model, we show that sea ice advance is constrained by initial conditions in March and the retreat season is influenced by the magnitude of several physical processes, in particular by the ice–albedo feedback and ice transport. Atmospheric feedbacks amplify the response of the winter ice extent to perturbations, while some negative feedbacks related to heat conduction fluxes act on the ice volume.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using statistical tree-growth proxy system models in the data assimilation framework may have limitations. In this study, we successfully incorporate the process-based dendroclimatic model MAIDEN into a data assimilation procedure to robustly compare the outputs of an Earth system model with tree-ring width observations. Important steps are made to demonstrate that using MAIDEN as a proxy system model is a promising way to improve large-scale climate reconstructions with data assimilation.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Kristina Seftigen, Hugues Goosse, Francois Klein, and Deliang Chen
Clim. Past, 13, 1831–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Comparisons of proxy data to GCM-simulated hydroclimate are still limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterized. In this study, we bring together tree-ring paleoclimate evidence and CMIP5–PMIP3 model simulations of the last millennium hydroclimate variability across Scandinavia. We explore the consistency between the datasets and the role of external forcing versus internal variability in driving the hydroclimate changes regionally.
François Klein, Hugues Goosse, Nicholas E. Graham, and Dirk Verschuren
Clim. Past, 12, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyses global climate model simulations of long-term East African hydroclimate changes relative to proxy-based reconstructions over the last millennium. No common signal is found between model results and reconstructions as well as among the model time series, which suggests that simulated hydroclimate is mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing.
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
Darrell Kaufman and Valérie Masson-Delmotte
Clim. Past, 20, 2587–2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2587-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rather than reverting to a dedicated paleoclimate chapter, knowledge about pre-industrial climate should be further integrated with other lines of evidence throughout the next assessment reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Marie Genevieve Paule Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, and Nicolas Ghilain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3140, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cores in East Antarctica show contrasting records of past snowfall. We tested if large-scale weather patterns could explain this by combining ice core data with an atmospheric model and radar-derived errors. However, the reconstruction produced unrealistic wind patterns to fit the ice core records. We suggest that uncertainties are not fully captured and that small-scale local wind effects, not represented in the model, could significantly influence snowfall records in the ice cores.
Hu Yang, Xiaoxu Shi, Xulong Wang, Qingsong Liu, Yi Zhong, Xiaodong Liu, Youbin Sun, Yanjun Cai, Fei Liu, Gerrit Lohmann, Martin Werner, Zhimin Jian, Tainã M. L. Pinho, Hai Cheng, Lijuan Lu, Jiping Liu, Chao-Yuan Yang, Qinghua Yang, Yongyun Hu, Xing Cheng, Jingyu Zhang, and Dake Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2778, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
The precession driven low-latitude hydrological cycle is not paced by hemispheric summer insolation, but shifting perihelion.
Mathurin A. Choblet, Janica C. Bühler, Valdir F. Novello, Nathan J. Steiger, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 20, 2117–2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Past climate reconstructions are essential for understanding climate mechanisms and drivers. Our focus is on the South American continent over the past 2000 years. We offer a new reconstruction that particularly utilizes data from speleothems, previously absent from continent-wide reconstructions. We use paleoclimate data assimilation, a reconstruction method that combines information from climate archives and climate simulations.
Julien Westhoff, Johannes Freitag, Anaïs Orsi, Patricia Martinerie, Ilka Weikusat, Michael Dyonisius, Xavier Faïn, Kevin Fourteau, and Thomas Blunier
The Cryosphere, 18, 4379–4397, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4379-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4379-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the EastGRIP area, Greenland, in detail with traditional and novel techniques. Due to the compaction of the ice, at a certain depth, atmospheric gases can no longer exchange, and the atmosphere is trapped in air bubbles in the ice. We find this depth by pumping air from a borehole, modeling, and using a new technique based on the optical appearance of the ice. Our results suggest that the close-off depth lies at around 58–61 m depth and more precisely at 58.3 m depth.
Giuliano Dreossi, Mauro Masiol, Barbara Stenni, Daniele Zannoni, Claudio Scarchilli, Virginia Ciardini, Mathieu Casado, Amaëlle Landais, Martin Werner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Giampietro Casasanta, Massimo Del Guasta, Vittoria Posocco, and Carlo Barbante
The Cryosphere, 18, 3911–3931, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3911-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes have been extensively used to reconstruct past temperatures, with precipitation representing the input signal of the isotopic records in ice cores. We present a 10-year record of stable isotopes in daily precipitation at Concordia Station: this is the longest record for inland Antarctica and represents a benchmark for quantifying post-depositional processes and improving the paleoclimate interpretation of ice cores.
Bianca Mezzina, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Antoine Barthélemy, and François Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 18, 3825–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze years with extraordinarily low sea ice extent in Antarctica during summer, until the striking record in 2022. We highlight common aspects among these events, such as the fact that the exceptional melting usually occurs in two key regions and that it is related to winds with a similar direction. We also investigate whether the summer conditions are preceded by an unusual state of the sea ice during the previous winter, as well as the physical processes involved.
Romilly Harris Stuart, Amaëlle Landais, Laurent Arnaud, Christo Buizert, Emilie Capron, Marie Dumont, Quentin Libois, Robert Mulvaney, Anaïs Orsi, Ghislain Picard, Frédéric Prié, Jeffrey Severinghaus, Barbara Stenni, and Patricia Martinerie
The Cryosphere, 18, 3741–3763, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3741-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice core δO2/N2 records are useful dating tools due to their local insolation pacing. A precise understanding of the physical mechanism driving this relationship, however, remain ambiguous. By compiling data from 15 polar sites, we find a strong dependence of mean δO2/N2 on accumulation rate and temperature in addition to the well-documented insolation dependence. Snowpack modelling is used to investigate which physical properties drive the mechanistic dependence on these local parameters.
Serena Lagorio, Barbara Delmonte, Dieter Tetzner, Elisa Malinverno, Giovanni Baccolo, Barbara Stenni, Massimo Frezzotti, Valter Maggi, and Nancy Bertler
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-56, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-56, 2024
Preprint under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Aeolian diatoms and dust in the RICE ice core (Antarctica) allow reconstructing climate variability in the Eastern Ross Sea over the last 2 ka. Long-term changes are related to environmental parameters as sea ice extent and extension of the Ross Sea Polynya. A climatic reorganization occurred around 1470 CE in response to the development of the Roosevelt Island Polynya. El Niño promoted the establishment of the Ross Sea dipole while La Niña favored the eastward expansion of the polynya.
Thomas Lauwers, Elise Fourré, Olivier Jossoud, Daniele Romanini, Frédéric Prié, Giordano Nitti, Mathieu Casado, Kévin Jaulin, Markus Miltner, Morgane Farradèche, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Amaëlle Landais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2149, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2149, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Water vapour isotopes are important tools to better understand processes governing the atmospheric hydrological cycle. In polar regions, their measurement helps to improve the interpretation of water isotopic records in ice cores. However, in situ water vapour isotopic monitoring is an important challenge, especially in dry places of East Antarctica. We present here an alternative laser spectroscopy technique adapted for such measurements, with a limit of detection down to 10 ppm humidity.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Laura Velasquez-Jimenez and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 20, 1125–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1125-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1125-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) influences climate in the Southern Hemisphere. We investigate the effects of calculation method and data used to calculate the SAM index and how it influences the relationship between the SAM and climate. We propose a method to calculate a natural SAM index that facilitates consistency between studies, including when using different data resolutions, avoiding distortion of SAM impacts and allowing for more reliable results of past and future SAM trends.
Qinggang Gao, Emilie Capron, Louise C. Sime, Rachael H. Rhodes, Rahul Sivankutty, Xu Zhang, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Martin Werner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1261, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Marine sediment and ice core records suggest a warmer Southern Ocean and Antarctica at the early last interglacial, ~127 thousand years ago. However, when only forced by orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations during that period, state-of-the-art climate models do not reproduce the magnitude of warming. Here we show that much of the warming at southern mid-to-high latitudes can be reproduced by a UK climate model HadCM3 with a 3000-year freshwater forcing over the North Atlantic.
Cécile Davrinche, Anaïs Orsi, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, and Christoph Kittel
The Cryosphere, 18, 2239–2256, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal surface winds in Antarctica are amongst the strongest winds on Earth. They are either driven by the cooling of the surface air mass by the ice sheet (katabatic) or by large-scale pressure systems. Here we compute the relative contribution of these drivers. We find that seasonal variations in the wind speed come from the katabatic acceleration, but, at a 3-hourly timescale, none of the large-scale or katabatic accelerations can be considered as the main driver.
Tessa R. Vance, Nerilie J. Abram, Alison S. Criscitiello, Camilla K. Crockart, Aylin DeCampo, Vincent Favier, Vasileios Gkinis, Margaret Harlan, Sarah L. Jackson, Helle A. Kjær, Chelsea A. Long, Meredith K. Nation, Christopher T. Plummer, Delia Segato, Andrea Spolaor, and Paul T. Vallelonga
Clim. Past, 20, 969–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-969-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the chronologies from the new Mount Brown South ice cores from East Antarctica, which were developed by counting annual layers in the ice core data and aligning these to volcanic sulfate signatures. The uncertainty in the dating is quantified, and we discuss initial results from seasonal cycle analysis and mean annual concentrations. The chronologies will underpin the development of new proxy records for East Antarctica spanning the past millennium.
Amaelle Landais, Cécile Agosta, Françoise Vimeux, Olivier Magand, Cyrielle Solis, Alexandre Cauquoin, Niels Dutrievoz, Camille Risi, Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos, Elise Fourré, Olivier Cattani, Olivier Jossoud, Bénédicte Minster, Frédéric Prié, Mathieu Casado, Aurélien Dommergue, Yann Bertrand, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4611–4634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4611-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4611-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have monitored water vapor isotopes since January 2020 on Amsterdam Island in the Indian Ocean. We show 11 periods associated with abrupt negative excursions of water vapor δ18Ο. Six of these events show a decrease in gaseous elemental mercury, suggesting subsidence of air from a higher altitude. Accurately representing the water isotopic signal during these cold fronts is a real challenge for the atmospheric components of Earth system models equipped with water isotopes.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Moein Mellat, Amy R. Macfarlane, Camilla F. Brunello, Martin Werner, Martin Schneebeli, Ruzica Dadic, Stefanie Arndt, Kaisa-Riikka Mustonen, Jeffrey M. Welker, and Hanno Meyer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-719, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, utilizing data from the Arctic MOSAiC expedition, reveals how snow on Arctic sea ice changes due to weather conditions. By analyzing snow samples collected over a year, we found differences in snow layers that tell us about their origins and how they've been affected by the environment. We discovered variations in snow and vapour that reflect the influence of weather patterns and surface processes like wind and sublimation.
Inès Ollivier, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Barbara Stenni, Laurent Arnaud, Mathieu Casado, Alexandre Cauquoin, Giuliano Dreossi, Christophe Genthon, Bénédicte Minster, Ghislain Picard, Martin Werner, and Amaëlle Landais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-685, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The role of post-depositional processes taking place at the ice sheet's surface on the water stable isotope signal measured in polar ice cores is not fully understood. Using field observations and modelling results, we show that the original precipitation isotopic signal at Dome C, East Antarctica, is modified by post-depositional processes and provide the first quantitative estimation of their mean impact on the isotopic signal observed in the snow.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Andrea Spolaor, Federico Scoto, Catherine Larose, Elena Barbaro, Francois Burgay, Mats P. Bjorkman, David Cappelletti, Federico Dallo, Fabrizio de Blasi, Dmitry Divine, Giuliano Dreossi, Jacopo Gabrieli, Elisabeth Isaksson, Jack Kohler, Tonu Martma, Louise S. Schmidt, Thomas V. Schuler, Barbara Stenni, Clara Turetta, Bartłomiej Luks, Mathieu Casado, and Jean-Charles Gallet
The Cryosphere, 18, 307–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-307-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-307-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the impact of the increased snowmelt on the preservation of the oxygen isotope (δ18O) signal in firn records recovered from the top of the Holtedahlfonna ice field located in the Svalbard archipelago. Thanks to a multidisciplinary approach we demonstrate a progressive deterioration of the isotope signal in the firn core. We link the degradation of the δ18O signal to the increased occurrence and intensity of melt events associated with the rapid warming occurring in the archipelago.
Aymeric P. M. Servettaz, Cécile Agosta, Christoph Kittel, and Anaïs J. Orsi
The Cryosphere, 17, 5373–5389, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5373-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5373-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It has been previously observed in polar regions that the atmospheric temperature is warmer during precipitation events. Here, we use a regional atmospheric model to quantify the temperature changes associated with snowfall events across Antarctica. We show that more intense snowfall is statistically associated with a warmer temperature anomaly compared to the seasonal average, with the largest anomalies seen in winter. This bias may affect water isotopes in ice cores deposited during snowfall.
Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos, Elise Fourré, Cécile Agosta, Mathieu Casado, Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, Benedicte Minster, Frédéric Prié, Olivier Jossoud, Leila Petit, and Amaëlle Landais
The Cryosphere, 17, 5241–5254, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5241-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the face of global warming, understanding the changing water cycle and temperatures in polar regions is crucial. These factors directly impact the balance of ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic. By studying the composition of water vapor, we gain insights into climate variations. Our 2-year study at Dumont d’Urville station, Adélie Land, offers valuable data to refine models. Additionally, we demonstrate how modeling aids in interpreting signals from ice core samples in the region.
Lingwei Zhang, Tessa R. Vance, Alexander D. Fraser, Lenneke M. Jong, Sarah S. Thompson, Alison S. Criscitiello, and Nerilie J. Abram
The Cryosphere, 17, 5155–5173, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5155-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5155-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Physical features in ice cores provide unique records of past variability. We identified 1–2 mm ice layers without bubbles in surface ice cores from Law Dome, East Antarctica, occurring on average five times per year. The origin of these bubble-free layers is unknown. In this study, we investigate whether they have the potential to record past atmospheric processes and circulation. We find that the bubble-free layers are linked to accumulation hiatus events and meridional moisture transport.
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Kenichi Matsuoka, Sarah Wauthy, Vikram Goel, Rahul Dey, Bhanu Pratap, Brice Van Liefferinge, Thamban Meloth, and Jean-Louis Tison
The Cryosphere, 17, 4779–4795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The net accumulation of snow over Antarctica is key for assessing current and future sea-level rise. Ice cores record a noisy snowfall signal to verify model simulations. We find that ice core net snowfall is biased to lower values for ice rises and the Dome Fuji site (Antarctica), while the relative uncertainty in measuring snowfall increases rapidly with distance away from the ice core sites at the ice rises but not at Dome Fuji. Spatial variation in snowfall must therefore be considered.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Hu Yang, Roberta D'Agostino, Jiping Liu, Chaoyuan Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 19, 2157–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marks the most recent extremely cold and dry time period of our planet. Using AWI-ESM, we quantify the relative importance of Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHG) and ice sheets (IS) in determining the LGM climate. Our results suggest that both GHG and IS play important roles in shaping the LGM temperature. Continental ice sheets exert a major control on precipitation, atmospheric dynamics, and the intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Xiaoxu Shi, Alexandre Cauquoin, Gerrit Lohmann, Lukas Jonkers, Qiang Wang, Hu Yang, Yuchen Sun, and Martin Werner
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5153–5178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new climate model with isotopic capabilities and simulated the pre-industrial and mid-Holocene periods. Despite certain regional model biases, the modeled isotope composition is in good agreement with observations and reconstructions. Based on our analyses, the observed isotope–temperature relationship in polar regions may have a summertime bias. Using daily model outputs, we developed a novel isotope-based approach to determine the onset date of the West African summer monsoon.
Sarah L. Jackson, Tessa R. Vance, Camilla Crockart, Andrew Moy, Christopher Plummer, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 19, 1653–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1653-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ice core records are useful tools for reconstructing past climate. However, ice cores favour recording climate conditions at times when snowfall occurs. Large snowfall events in Antarctica are often associated with warmer-than-usual temperatures. We show that this results in a tendency for the Mount Brown South ice core record to preserve a temperature record biased to the climate conditions that exist during extreme events, rather than a temperature record that reflects the mean annual climate.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Takashi Obase, Wing-Le Chan, André Paul, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 19, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1275-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1275-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes are tracers of climate processes occurring in the hydrological cycle. They are widely used to reconstruct the past variations of polar temperature before the instrumental era thanks to their measurements in ice cores. However, the relationship between measured isotopes and temperature has large uncertainties. In our study, we investigate how the sea surface conditions (temperature, sea ice, ocean circulation) impact this relationship for a cold to warm climate change.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, Diana O. Vladimirova, Dieter R. Tetzner, B. Daniel Emanuelsson, Nathan Chellman, Daniel A. Dixon, Hugues Goosse, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Amy C. F. King, Michael Sigl, Danielle G. Udy, Tessa R. Vance, Dominic A. Winski, V. Holly L. Winton, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Akira Hori, Chavarukonam M. Laluraj, Joseph R. McConnell, Yuko Motizuki, Kazuya Takahashi, Hideaki Motoyama, Yoichi Nakai, Franciéle Schwanck, Jefferson Cardia Simões, Filipe Gaudie Ley Lindau, Mirko Severi, Rita Traversi, Sarah Wauthy, Cunde Xiao, Jiao Yang, Ellen Mosely-Thompson, Tamara V. Khodzher, Ludmila P. Golobokova, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2517–2532, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The concentration of sodium and sulfate measured in Antarctic ice cores is related to changes in both sea ice and winds. Here we have compiled a database of sodium and sulfate records from 105 ice core sites in Antarctica. The records span all, or part, of the past 2000 years. The records will improve our understanding of how winds and sea ice have changed in the past and how they have influenced the climate of Antarctica over the past 2000 years.
Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, and Hugues Goosse
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 511–530, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic equatorial mode (AEM) of variability is partly responsible for the year-to-year rainfall variability over the Guinea coast. We used the current climate models to explore the present-day and future links between the AEM and the extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast. Under future global warming, the total variability of the extreme rainfall indices increases over the Guinea coast. However, the future impact of the AEM on extreme rainfall events decreases over the region.
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Aymeric P. M. Servettaz, Anaïs J. Orsi, Mark A. J. Curran, Andrew D. Moy, Amaelle Landais, Joseph R. McConnell, Trevor J. Popp, Emmanuel Le Meur, Xavier Faïn, and Jérôme Chappellaz
Clim. Past, 19, 1125–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The temperature of the past 2000 years is still poorly known in vast parts of the East Antarctic plateau. In this study, we present temperature reconstructions based on water and gas stable isotopes from the Aurora Basin North ice core. Spatial and temporal significance of each proxy differs, and we can identify some cold periods in the snow temperature up to 2°C cooler in the 1000–1400 CE period, which could not be determined with water isotopes only.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Fanny Lhardy, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier Paillard, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 19, 1027–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The last deglaciation is a period of large warming from 21 000 to 9000 years ago, concomitant with ice sheet melting. Here, we evaluate the impact of different ice sheet reconstructions and different processes linked to their changes. Changes in bathymetry and coastlines, although not often accounted for, cannot be neglected. Ice sheet melt results in freshwater into the ocean with large effects on ocean circulation, but the timing cannot explain the observed abrupt climate changes.
Rachel M. Walter, Hussein R. Sayani, Thomas Felis, Kim M. Cobb, Nerilie J. Abram, Ariella K. Arzey, Alyssa R. Atwood, Logan D. Brenner, Émilie P. Dassié, Kristine L. DeLong, Bethany Ellis, Julien Emile-Geay, Matthew J. Fischer, Nathalie F. Goodkin, Jessica A. Hargreaves, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, Hedwig Krawczyk, Nicholas P. McKay, Andrea L. Moore, Sujata A. Murty, Maria Rosabelle Ong, Riovie D. Ramos, Emma V. Reed, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Sara C. Sanchez, Jens Zinke, and the PAGES CoralHydro2k Project Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2081–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2081-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2081-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately quantifying how the global hydrological cycle will change in the future remains challenging due to the limited availability of historical climate data from the tropics. Here we present the CoralHydro2k database – a new compilation of peer-reviewed coral-based climate records from the last 2000 years. This paper details the records included in the database and where the database can be accessed and demonstrates how the database can investigate past tropical climate variability.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Simone Ventisette, Samuele Baldini, Claudio Artoni, Silvia Becagli, Laura Caiazzo, Barbara Delmonte, Massimo Frezzotti, Raffaello Nardin, Joel Savarino, Mirko Severi, Andrea Spolaor, Barbara Stenni, and Rita Traversi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-393, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-393, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
The paper reports the spatial variability of concentration and fluxes of chemical impurities in superficial snow over unexplored area of the East Antarctic ice sheet. Pinatubo and Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcanic eruptions in non-sea salt sulfate and dust snow pits record were used to achieve the accumulation rates. Deposition (wet, dry and uptake from snow surface) and post deposition processes are constrained. These knowledges are fundamental in Antarctic ice cores stratigraphies interpretation.
Hongyue Zhang, Jesper Sjolte, Zhengyao Lu, Jian Liu, Weiyi Sun, and Lingfeng Wan
Clim. Past, 19, 665–680, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Based on proxy data and modeling, the Arctic temperature has an asymmetric cooling trend with more cooling over the Atlantic Arctic than the Pacific Arctic during the Holocene, dominated by orbital forcing. There is a seasonal difference in the asymmetric cooling trend, which is dominated by the DJF (December, January, and February) temperature variability. The Arctic dipole mode of sea level pressure and sea ice play a major role in asymmetric temperature changes.
Christo Buizert, Sarah Shackleton, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, William H. G. Roberts, Alan Seltzer, Bernhard Bereiter, Kenji Kawamura, Daniel Baggenstos, Anaïs J. Orsi, Ikumi Oyabu, Benjamin Birner, Jacob D. Morgan, Edward J. Brook, David M. Etheridge, David Thornton, Nancy Bertler, Rebecca L. Pyne, Robert Mulvaney, Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Peter D. Neff, and Vasilii V. Petrenko
Clim. Past, 19, 579–606, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-579-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-579-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is unclear how different components of the global atmospheric circulation, such as the El Niño effect, respond to large-scale climate change. We present a new ice core gas proxy, called krypton-86 excess, that reflects past storminess in Antarctica. We present data from 11 ice cores that suggest the new proxy works. We present a reconstruction of changes in West Antarctic storminess over the last 24 000 years and suggest these are caused by north–south movement of the tropical rain belt.
Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 17, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using idealized sensitivity experiments with a regional atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model, we show that sea ice advance is constrained by initial conditions in March and the retreat season is influenced by the magnitude of several physical processes, in particular by the ice–albedo feedback and ice transport. Atmospheric feedbacks amplify the response of the winter ice extent to perturbations, while some negative feedbacks related to heat conduction fluxes act on the ice volume.
Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Nathan Steiger, Sylvia Dee, Chris Hancock, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 18, 2599–2629, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To look at climate over the past 12 000 years, we reconstruct spatial temperature using natural climate archives and information from model simulations. Our results show mild global mean warmth around 6000 years ago, which differs somewhat from past reconstructions. Undiagnosed seasonal biases in the data could explain some of the observed temperature change, but this still would not explain the large difference between many reconstructions and climate models over this period.
Jiajia Wang, Hongxi Pang, Shuangye Wu, Spruce W. Schoenemann, Ryu Uemura, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Sentia Goursaud Oger, Summer Rupper, and Shugui Hou
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-384, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-384, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopic observations in surface snow over Antarctica provide a basis for validating isotopic models and interpreting Antarctic ice core records. This study presents a new compilation of Antarctic surface snow isotopic dataset based on published and unpublished sources. The database has a wide range of potential applications in studying spatial distribution of water isotopes, model validation, and reconstruction and interpretation of Antarctic ice core records.
Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate change. Here we study centennial temperature variability and the role of large-scale ocean circulation variability using different climate models, geological reconstructions and temperature observations. Unfortunately, uncertainties in models and geological reconstructions are such that more research is needed before we can describe the characteristics of natural centennial temperature variability.
Guillian Van Achter, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
The Cryosphere, 16, 4745–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the changes in ocean–ice interactions in the Totten Glacier area between the last decades (1995–2014) and the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under warmer climate conditions. By the end of the 21st century, the sea ice is strongly reduced, and the ocean circulation close to the coast is accelerated. Our research highlights the importance of including representations of fast ice to simulate realistic ice shelf melt rate increase in East Antarctica under warming conditions.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Antoine Grisart, Mathieu Casado, Vasileios Gkinis, Bo Vinther, Philippe Naveau, Mathieu Vrac, Thomas Laepple, Bénédicte Minster, Frederic Prié, Barbara Stenni, Elise Fourré, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Jean Jouzel, Martin Werner, Katy Pol, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Maria Hoerhold, Trevor Popp, and Amaelle Landais
Clim. Past, 18, 2289–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a compilation of high-resolution (11 cm) water isotopic records, including published and new measurements, for the last 800 000 years from the EPICA Dome C ice core, Antarctica. Using this new combined water isotopes (δ18O and δD) dataset, we study the variability and possible influence of diffusion at the multi-decadal to multi-centennial scale. We observe a stronger variability at the onset of the interglacial interval corresponding to a warm period.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using statistical tree-growth proxy system models in the data assimilation framework may have limitations. In this study, we successfully incorporate the process-based dendroclimatic model MAIDEN into a data assimilation procedure to robustly compare the outputs of an Earth system model with tree-ring width observations. Important steps are made to demonstrate that using MAIDEN as a proxy system model is a promising way to improve large-scale climate reconstructions with data assimilation.
Lenneke M. Jong, Christopher T. Plummer, Jason L. Roberts, Andrew D. Moy, Mark A. J. Curran, Tessa R. Vance, Joel B. Pedro, Chelsea A. Long, Meredith Nation, Paul A. Mayewski, and Tas D. van Ommen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3313–3328, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3313-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ice core records from Law Dome in East Antarctica, collected over the the last 3 decades, provide high-resolution data for studies of the climate of Antarctica, Australia and the Southern and Indo-Pacific oceans. Here, we present a set of annually dated records from Law Dome covering the last 2000 years. This dataset provides an update and extensions both forward and back in time of previously published subsets of the data, bringing them together into a coherent set with improved dating.
Janica C. Bühler, Josefine Axelsson, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Jens Fohlmeister, Allegra N. LeGrande, Madhavan Midhun, Jesper Sjolte, Martin Werner, Kei Yoshimura, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 18, 1625–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We collected and standardized the output of five isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium and assess differences and similarities to records from a global speleothem database. Modeled isotope variations mostly arise from temperature differences. While lower-resolution speleothems do not capture extreme changes to the extent of models, they show higher variability on multi-decadal timescales. As no model excels in all comparisons, we advise a multi-model approach where possible.
Nicky M. Wright, Claire E. Krause, Steven J. Phipps, Ghyslaine Boschat, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 18, 1509–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a major mode of climate variability. Proxy-based SAM reconstructions show changes that last millennium climate simulations do not reproduce. We test the SAM's sensitivity to solar forcing using simulations with a range of solar values and transient last millennium simulations with large-amplitude solar variations. We find that solar forcing can alter the SAM and that strong solar forcing transient simulations better match proxy-based reconstructions.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Nicolas Ghilain, Stéphane Vannitsem, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Lesley De Cruz, and Wenguang Wei
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1901–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling the climate at high resolution is crucial to represent the snowfall accumulation over the complex orography of the Antarctic coast. While ice cores provide a view constrained spatially but over centuries, climate models can give insight into its spatial distribution, either at high resolution over a short period or vice versa. We downscaled snowfall accumulation from climate model historical simulations (1850–present day) over Dronning Maud Land at 5.5 km using a statistical method.
Tobias Erhardt, Matthias Bigler, Urs Federer, Gideon Gfeller, Daiana Leuenberger, Olivia Stowasser, Regine Röthlisberger, Simon Schüpbach, Urs Ruth, Birthe Twarloh, Anna Wegner, Kumiko Goto-Azuma, Takayuki Kuramoto, Helle A. Kjær, Paul T. Vallelonga, Marie-Louise Siggaard-Andersen, Margareta E. Hansson, Ailsa K. Benton, Louise G. Fleet, Rob Mulvaney, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nerilie Abram, Thomas F. Stocker, and Hubertus Fischer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1215–1231, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The datasets presented alongside this manuscript contain high-resolution concentration measurements of chemical impurities in deep ice cores, NGRIP and NEEM, from the Greenland ice sheet. The impurities originate from the deposition of aerosols to the surface of the ice sheet and are influenced by source, transport and deposition processes. Together, these records contain detailed, multi-parameter records of past climate variability over the last glacial period.
Paolo Gabrielli, Theo Manuel Jenk, Michele Bertó, Giuliano Dreossi, Daniela Festi, Werner Kofler, Mai Winstrup, Klaus Oeggl, Margit Schwikowski, Barbara Stenni, and Carlo Barbante
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-20, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-20, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We present a methodology that reduces the chronological uncertainty of an Alpine ice core record from the glacier Alto dell’Ortles, Italy. This chronology will allow the constraint of the Holocene climatic and environmental histories emerging from this archive of Central Europe. This method will allow to obtain accurate chronologies also from other ice cores from-low latitude/high-altitude glaciers that typically suffer from larger dating uncertainties compared with well dated polar records.
Koffi Worou, Hugues Goosse, Thierry Fichefet, and Fred Kucharski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over the Guinea Coast, the increased rainfall associated with warm phases of the Atlantic Niño is reasonably well simulated by 24 climate models out of 31, for the present-day conditions. In a warmer climate, general circulation models project a gradual decrease with time of the rainfall magnitude associated with the Atlantic Niño for the 2015–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods. There is a higher confidence in these changes over the equatorial Atlantic than over the Guinea Coast.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Stephan Krätschmer, Michèlle van der Does, Frank Lamy, Gerrit Lohmann, Christoph Völker, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 18, 67–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use an atmospheric model coupled to an aerosol model to investigate the global mineral dust cycle with a focus on the Southern Hemisphere for warmer and colder climate states and compare our results to observational data. Our findings suggest that Australia is the predominant source of dust deposited over Antarctica during the last glacial maximum. In addition, we find that the southward transport of dust from all sources to Antarctica happens at lower altitudes in colder climates.
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
Raffaello Nardin, Mirko Severi, Alessandra Amore, Silvia Becagli, Francois Burgay, Laura Caiazzo, Virginia Ciardini, Giuliano Dreossi, Massimo Frezzotti, Sang-Bum Hong, Ishaq Khan, Bianca Maria Narcisi, Marco Proposito, Claudio Scarchilli, Enricomaria Selmo, Andrea Spolaor, Barbara Stenni, and Rita Traversi
Clim. Past, 17, 2073–2089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2073-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2073-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The first step to exploit all the potential information buried in ice cores is to produce a reliable age scale. Based on chemical and isotopic records from the 197 m Antarctic GV7(B) ice core, accurate dating was achieved and showed that the archive spans roughly the last 830 years. The relatively high accumulation rate allowed us to use the non-sea-salt sulfate seasonal pattern to count annual layers. The accumulation rate reconstruction exhibited a slight increase since the 18th century.
Saeid Bagheri Dastgerdi, Melanie Behrens, Jean-Louis Bonne, Maria Hörhold, Gerrit Lohmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 15, 4745–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, for the first time, water vapour isotope measurements in Antarctica for all seasons of a year are performed. Local temperature is identified as the main driver of δ18O and δD variability. A similar slope of the temperature–δ18O relationship in vapour and surface snow points to the water vapour isotope content as a potential key driver. This dataset can be used as a new dataset to evaluate the capability of isotope-enhanced climate models.
Camilla K. Crockart, Tessa R. Vance, Alexander D. Fraser, Nerilie J. Abram, Alison S. Criscitiello, Mark A. J. Curran, Vincent Favier, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Christoph Kittel, Helle A. Kjær, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Lenneke M. Jong, Andrew D. Moy, Christopher T. Plummer, Paul T. Vallelonga, Jonathan Wille, and Lingwei Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 1795–1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present preliminary analyses of the annual sea salt concentrations and snowfall accumulation in a new East Antarctic ice core, Mount Brown South. We compare this record with an updated Law Dome (Dome Summit South site) ice core record over the period 1975–2016. The Mount Brown South record preserves a stronger and inverse signal for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (in austral winter and spring) compared to the Law Dome record (in summer).
Marcus Breil, Emanuel Christner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, Melanie Karremann, and Gerd Schädler
Clim. Past, 17, 1685–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1685-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1685-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time an isotope-enabled regional climate simulation for Greenland is performed for the mid-Holocene. Simulation results are compared with observed isotope ratios in ice cores. Compared to global climate simulations, a regional downscaling improves the agreement with measured isotope concentrations. Thus, an isotope-enabled regional climate simulation constitutes a useful supplement to reconstruct regional paleo-climate conditions during the mid-Holocene in Greenland.
Thomas Münch, Martin Werner, and Thomas Laepple
Clim. Past, 17, 1587–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1587-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse Holocene climate model simulation data to find the locations of Antarctic ice cores which are best suited to reconstruct local- to regional-scale temperatures. We find that the spatial decorrelation scales of the temperature variations and of the noise from precipitation intermittency set an effective sampling length scale. Following this, a single core should be located at the
target site for the temperature reconstruction, and a second one optimally lies more than 500 km away.
Pascal Bohleber, Marco Roman, Martin Šala, Barbara Delmonte, Barbara Stenni, and Carlo Barbante
The Cryosphere, 15, 3523–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3523-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3523-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) offers micro-destructive, micrometer-scale impurity analysis of ice cores. For improved understanding of the LA-ICP-MS signals, novel 2D impurity imaging is applied to selected glacial and interglacial samples of Antarctic deep ice cores. This allows evaluating the 2D impurity distribution in relation to ice crystal features and assessing implications for investigating highly thinned climate proxy signals in deep polar ice.
Nathalie Van der Putten, Florian Adolphi, Anette Mellström, Jesper Sjolte, Cyriel Verbruggen, Jan-Berend Stuut, Tobias Erhardt, Yves Frenot, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-69, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-69, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
In recent decades, Southern Hemisphere westerlies (SHW) moved equator-ward during periods of low solar activity leading to increased winds/precipitation at 46° S, Indian Ocean. We present a terrestrial SHW proxy-record and find stronger SHW influence at Crozet, shortly after 2.8 ka BP, synchronous with a climate shift in the Northern Hemisphere, attributed to a major decline in solar activity. The bipolar response to solar forcing is supported by a climate model forced by solar irradiance only.
Sarah E. Parker, Sandy P. Harrison, Laia Comas-Bru, Nikita Kaushal, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 1119–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional trends in the oxygen isotope (δ18O) composition of stalagmites reflect several climate processes. We compare stalagmite δ18O records from monsoon regions and model simulations to identify the causes of δ18O variability over the last 12 000 years, and between glacial and interglacial states. Precipitation changes explain the glacial–interglacial δ18O changes in all monsoon regions; Holocene trends are due to a combination of precipitation, atmospheric circulation and temperature changes.
Iris Thurnherr, Katharina Hartmuth, Lukas Jansing, Josué Gehring, Maxi Boettcher, Irina Gorodetskaya, Martin Werner, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 331–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are important for the transport of moisture from low to high latitudes. In this study, we investigate how the isotopic composition of water vapour is affected by horizontal temperature advection associated with extratropical cyclones using measurements and modelling. It is shown that air–sea moisture fluxes induced by this horizontal temperature advection lead to the strong variability observed in the isotopic composition of water vapour in the marine boundary layer.
André Paul, Stefan Mulitza, Rüdiger Stein, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-805-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Maps and fields of near-sea-surface temperature differences between the past and present can be used to visualize and quantify climate changes and perform simulations with climate models. We used a statistical method to map sparse and scattered data for the Last Glacial Maximum time period (23 000 to 19 000 years before present) to a regular grid. The estimated global and tropical cooling would imply an equilibrium climate sensitivity in the lower to middle part of the currently accepted range.
Alan Huston, Nicholas Siler, Gerard H. Roe, Erin Pettit, and Nathan J. Steiger
The Cryosphere, 15, 1645–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1645-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the past 1000 years of glacier length variability using a simple glacier model and an ensemble of global climate model simulations. Glaciers with long response times are more likely to record global climate changes caused by events like volcanic eruptions and greenhouse gas emissions, while glaciers with short response times are more likely to record natural variability. This difference stems from differences in the frequency spectra of natural and forced temperature variability.
Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, Marie G. P. Cavitte, and Liping Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 111–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Polynyas are ice-free oceanic areas within the sea ice pack. Small polynyas are regularly observed in the Southern Ocean, but large open-ocean polynyas have been rare over the past decades. Using records from available ice cores in Antarctica, we reconstruct past polynya activity and confirm that those events have also been rare over the past centuries, but the information provided by existing data is not sufficient to precisely characterize the timing of past polynya opening.
Ikumi Oyabu, Kenji Kawamura, Kyotaro Kitamura, Remi Dallmayr, Akihiro Kitamura, Chikako Sawada, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Ross Beaudette, Anaïs Orsi, Satoshi Sugawara, Shigeyuki Ishidoya, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Kumiko Goto-Azuma, Shuji Aoki, and Takakiyo Nakazawa
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 6703–6731, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-6703-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-6703-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Air in polar ice cores provides information on past atmosphere and climate. We present a new method for simultaneously measuring eight gases (CH4, N2O and CO2 concentrations; isotopic ratios of N2 and O2; elemental ratios between N2, O2 and Ar; and total air content) from single ice-core samples with high precision.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 4083–4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Surface mass balance (SMB) and surface air temperature (SAT) are correlated at the regional scale for most of Antarctica, SMB and δ18O. Areas with low/no correlation are where wind processes (foehn, katabatic wind warming, and erosion) are sufficiently active to overwhelm the synoptic-scale snow accumulation. Measured in ice cores, the link between SMB, SAT, and δ18O is much weaker. Random noise can be removed by core record averaging but local processes perturb the correlation systematically.
Bronwen L. Konecky, Nicholas P. McKay, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Laia Comas-Bru, Emilie P. Dassié, Kristine L. DeLong, Georgina M. Falster, Matt J. Fischer, Matthew D. Jones, Lukas Jonkers, Darrell S. Kaufman, Guillaume Leduc, Shreyas R. Managave, Belen Martrat, Thomas Opel, Anais J. Orsi, Judson W. Partin, Hussein R. Sayani, Elizabeth K. Thomas, Diane M. Thompson, Jonathan J. Tyler, Nerilie J. Abram, Alyssa R. Atwood, Olivier Cartapanis, Jessica L. Conroy, Mark A. Curran, Sylvia G. Dee, Michael Deininger, Dmitry V. Divine, Zoltán Kern, Trevor J. Porter, Samantha L. Stevenson, Lucien von Gunten, and Iso2k Project Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2261–2288, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2261-2020, 2020
David Parkes and Hugues Goosse
The Cryosphere, 14, 3135–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and far between. We used a sophisticated glacier model to simulate glacier length changes over the last 1000 years for those glaciers that we do have long-term records of, to determine whether the model can run in a stable, realistic way over a long timescale, reproducing recent observed trends. We find that post-industrial changes are larger than other changes in this time period driven by recent warming.
Jesper Sjolte, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Raimund Muscheler, Christophe Sturm, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 16, 1737–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we investigate seasonal climate reconstructions produced by matching climate model output to ice core and tree-ring data, and we evaluate the model–data reconstructions against meteorological observations. The reconstructions capture the main patterns of variability in sea level pressure and temperature in summer and winter. The performance of the reconstructions depends on seasonal climate variability itself, and definitions of seasons can be optimized to capture this variability.
Jean-Louis Bonne, Hanno Meyer, Melanie Behrens, Julia Boike, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Benjamin Rabe, Toni Schmidt, Lutz Schönicke, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10493–10511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces 2 years of continuous near-surface in situ observations of the stable isotopic composition of water vapour in parallel with precipitation in north-eastern Siberia. We evaluate the atmospheric transport of moisture towards the region of our observations with simulations constrained by meteorological reanalyses and use this information to interpret the temporal variations of the vapour isotopic composition from seasonal to synoptic timescales.
Zhiqiang Lyu, Anais J. Orsi, and Hugues Goosse
Clim. Past, 16, 1411–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses two different ways to perform model–data comparisons for the borehole temperature in Antarctica. The results suggest most models generally reproduce the long-term cooling in West Antarctica from 1000 to 1600 CE and the recent 50 years of warming in West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula. However, The 19th-century cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula (−0.94 °C) is not reproduced by any of the models, which tend to show warming instead.
Florian Mekhaldi, Markus Czymzik, Florian Adolphi, Jesper Sjolte, Svante Björck, Ala Aldahan, Achim Brauer, Celia Martin-Puertas, Göran Possnert, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 16, 1145–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1145-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1145-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Due to chronology uncertainties within paleoclimate archives, it is unclear how climate oscillations from different records relate to one another. By using radionuclides to synchronize Greenland ice cores and a German lake record over 11 000 years, we show that two oscillations observed in these records were not synchronous but terminated and began with the onset of a grand solar minimum. Both this and changes in ocean circulation could have played a role in the two climate oscillations.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Hugues Goosse, Joël Guiot, Fabio Gennaretti, Etienne Boucher, Frédéric André, and Mathieu Jonard
Clim. Past, 16, 1043–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tree rings are the main data source for climate reconstructions over the last millennium. Statistical tree-growth models have limitations that process-based models could overcome. Here, we investigate the possibility of using a process-based ecophysiological model (MAIDEN) as a complex proxy system model for palaeoclimate applications. We show its ability to simulate tree-growth index time series that can fit robustly tree-ring width observations under certain conditions.
Christoph Dätwyler, Martin Grosjean, Nathan J. Steiger, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 16, 743–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-743-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-743-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are two important modes of climate variability, strongly influencing climate across the tropics and Southern Hemisphere mid- to high latitudes. This study sheds light on their relationship over the past millennium, combining evidence from palaeoclimate proxy archives and climate models. We show that their indices were mostly negatively correlated with fluctuations likely driven by internal variability in the climate system.
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Louis de Wergifosse, Frédéric André, Nicolas Beudez, François de Coligny, Hugues Goosse, François Jonard, Quentin Ponette, Hugues Titeux, Caroline Vincke, and Mathieu Jonard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1459–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Given their key role in the simulation of climate impacts on tree growth, phenological and water balance processes must be integrated in models simulating forest dynamics under a changing environment. Here, we describe these processes integrated in HETEROFOR, a model accounting simultaneously for the functional, structural and spatial complexity to explore the forest response to forestry practices. The model evaluation using phenological and soil water content observations is quite promising.
Svante Björck, Jesper Sjolte, Karl Ljung, Florian Adolphi, Roger Flower, Rienk H. Smittenberg, Malin E. Kylander, Thomas F. Stocker, Sofia Holmgren, Hui Jiang, Raimund Muscheler, Yamoah K. K. Afrifa, Jayne E. Rattray, and Nathalie Van der Putten
Clim. Past, 15, 1939–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1939-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1939-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Southern Hemisphere westerlies play a key role in regulating global climate. A lake sediment record on a mid-South Atlantic island shows changes in the westerlies and hydroclimate 36.4–18.6 ka. Before 31 ka the westerlies shifted in concert with the bipolar seesaw mechanism in a fairly warm climate, followed by southerly westerlies and falling temperatures. After 27.5 ka temperatures dropped 3 °C with drier conditions and with shifting westerlies possibly triggering the variable LGM CO2 levels.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Hera Guðlaugsdóttir, Jesper Sjolte, Árný Erla Sveinbjörnsdóttir, and Hans Christian Steen-Larsen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-99, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-99, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In the North Atlantic four modes of climate variability dominate weather. Here we assess how these modes are affected after both equatorial and high latitude eruptions, known to influence temperature in the atmosphere. Main results show that the modes associated with extreme weather events tend to follow high latitude eruptions as opposed to equatorial eruptions. These modes have also become more frequent as a result of anthropogenic warming, providing an insight into the dominating mechanism.
Laia Comas-Bru, Sandy P. Harrison, Martin Werner, Kira Rehfeld, Nick Scroxton, Cristina Veiga-Pires, and SISAL working group members
Clim. Past, 15, 1557–1579, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We use an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled climate model to provide a protocol for using speleothem isotopic data for model evaluation, including screening the observations and the optimum period for the modern observational baseline. We also illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotopic values during any time period could be used for model evaluation.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Suzanne Preunkert, Michel Legrand, Bénédicte Minster, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 13, 1297–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1297-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1297-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We report new water stable isotope records from the first highly resolved firn core drilled in Adélie Land and covering 1998–2014. Using an updated database, we show that mean values are in line with the range of coastal values. Statistical analyses show no relationship between our record and local surface air temperature. Atmospheric back trajectories and isotopic simulations suggest that water stable isotopes in Adélie provide a fingerprint of the variability of atmospheric dynamics.
Chris S. M. Turney, Helen V. McGregor, Pierre Francus, Nerilie Abram, Michael N. Evans, Hugues Goosse, Lucien von Gunten, Darrell Kaufman, Hans Linderholm, Marie-France Loutre, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 15, 611–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This PAGES (Past Global Changes) 2k (climate of the past 2000 years working group) special issue of Climate of the Past brings together the latest understanding of regional change and impacts from PAGES 2k groups across a range of proxies and regions. The special issue has emerged from a need to determine the magnitude and rate of change of regional and global climate beyond the timescales accessible within the observational record.
Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Anais Orsi, Vincent Favier, Hubert Gallée, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic surface mass balance (ASMB), a component of the sea level budget, is commonly estimated through modelling as observations are scarce. The polar-oriented regional climate model MAR performs well in simulating the observed ASMB. MAR and RACMO2 share common biases we relate to drifting snow transport, with a 3 times larger magnitude than in previous estimates. Sublimation of precipitation in the katabatic layer modelled by MAR is of a magnitude similar to an observation-based estimate.
Michael Sigl, Nerilie J. Abram, Jacopo Gabrieli, Theo M. Jenk, Dimitri Osmont, and Margit Schwikowski
The Cryosphere, 12, 3311–3331, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3311-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3311-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The fast retreat of Alpine glaciers since the mid-19th century documented in photographs is used as a symbol for the human impact on global climate, yet the key driving forces remain elusive. Here we argue that not industrial soot but volcanic eruptions were responsible for an apparently accelerated deglaciation starting in the 1850s. Our findings support a negligible role of human activity in forcing glacier recession at the end of the Little Ice Age, highlighting the role of natural drivers.
Amaëlle Landais, Emilie Capron, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Samuel Toucanne, Rachael Rhodes, Trevor Popp, Bo Vinther, Bénédicte Minster, and Frédéric Prié
Clim. Past, 14, 1405–1415, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1405-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
During the last glacial–interglacial climate transition (120 000 to 10 000 years before present), Greenland climate and midlatitude North Atlantic climate and water cycle vary in phase over the succession of millennial events. We identify here one notable exception to this behavior with a decoupling unambiguously identified through a combination of water isotopic tracers measured in a Greenland ice core. The midlatitude moisture source becomes warmer and wetter at 16 200 years before present.
Jesper Sjolte, Christophe Sturm, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 14, 1179–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical volcanic eruptions and variations in solar activity have been suggested to influence the strength of westerly winds across the North Atlantic. We use Greenland ice core records together with a climate model simulation, and find stronger westerly winds for five winters following tropical volcanic eruptions. We see a delayed response to solar activity of 5 years, and the response to solar minima corresponds well to the cooling pattern during the period known as the Little Ice Age.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Minjie Zheng, Jesper Sjolte, Florian Adolphi, Bo Møllesøe Vinther, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Trevor James Popp, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 14, 1067–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1067-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1067-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We show the seasonal δ18O data from the NEEM site in northwestern Greenland over the last 150 years. We found that the NEEM summer δ18O signal correlates well with summer temperature in western coastal Greenland, while the NEEM winter δ18O signal correlates well with sea ice concentration in Baffin Bay. In contrast with the winter δ18O data from central/southern Greenland, we find no linkage of NEEM winter δ18O to winter NAO.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Anaïs Orsi, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 14, 923–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-923-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-923-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric general circulation models equipped with water stable isotopes are key tools to explore the links between climate variables and precipitation isotopic composition and thus to quantify past temperature changes using ice core records. Here, we evaluate the skills of ECHAM5-wiso to simulate the spatio-temporal characteristics of Antarctic climate and precipitation isotopic composition at the regional scale, thanks to a database of precipitation and ice core records.
Mathieu Casado, Amaelle Landais, Ghislain Picard, Thomas Münch, Thomas Laepple, Barbara Stenni, Giuliano Dreossi, Alexey Ekaykin, Laurent Arnaud, Christophe Genthon, Alexandra Touzeau, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, and Jean Jouzel
The Cryosphere, 12, 1745–1766, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1745-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1745-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Ice core isotopic records rely on the knowledge of the processes involved in the archival processes of the snow. In the East Antarctic Plateau, post-deposition processes strongly affect the signal found in the surface and buried snow compared to the initial climatic signal. We evaluate the different contributions to the surface snow isotopic composition between the precipitation and the exchanges with the atmosphere and the variability of the isotopic signal found in profiles from snow pits.
Sebastian G. Mutz, Todd A. Ehlers, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, Christian Stepanek, and Jingmin Li
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 271–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use a climate model and statistics to provide an overview of regional climates from different times in the late Cenozoic. We focus on tectonically active mountain ranges in particular. Our results highlight significant changes in climates throughout the late Cenozoic, which should be taken into consideration when interpreting erosion rates. We also document the differences between model- and proxy-based estimates for late Cenozoic climate change in South America and Tibet.
Nancy A. N. Bertler, Howard Conway, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Daniel B. Emanuelsson, Mai Winstrup, Paul T. Vallelonga, James E. Lee, Ed J. Brook, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Taylor J. Fudge, Elizabeth D. Keller, W. Troy Baisden, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Peter D. Neff, Thomas Blunier, Ross Edwards, Paul A. Mayewski, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Christo Buizert, Silvia Canessa, Ruzica Dadic, Helle A. Kjær, Andrei Kurbatov, Dongqi Zhang, Edwin D. Waddington, Giovanni Baccolo, Thomas Beers, Hannah J. Brightley, Lionel Carter, David Clemens-Sewall, Viorela G. Ciobanu, Barbara Delmonte, Lukas Eling, Aja Ellis, Shruthi Ganesh, Nicholas R. Golledge, Skylar Haines, Michael Handley, Robert L. Hawley, Chad M. Hogan, Katelyn M. Johnson, Elena Korotkikh, Daniel P. Lowry, Darcy Mandeno, Robert M. McKay, James A. Menking, Timothy R. Naish, Caroline Noerling, Agathe Ollive, Anaïs Orsi, Bernadette C. Proemse, Alexander R. Pyne, Rebecca L. Pyne, James Renwick, Reed P. Scherer, Stefanie Semper, Marius Simonsen, Sharon B. Sneed, Eric J. Steig, Andrea Tuohy, Abhijith Ulayottil Venugopal, Fernando Valero-Delgado, Janani Venkatesh, Feitang Wang, Shimeng Wang, Dominic A. Winski, V. Holly L. Winton, Arran Whiteford, Cunde Xiao, Jiao Yang, and Xin Zhang
Clim. Past, 14, 193–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-193-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-193-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature and snow accumulation records from the annually dated Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core show that for the past 2 700 years, the eastern Ross Sea warmed, while the western Ross Sea showed no trend and West Antarctica cooled. From the 17th century onwards, this dipole relationship changed. Now all three regions show concurrent warming, with snow accumulation declining in West Antarctica and the eastern Ross Sea.
John M. Fegyveresi, Richard B. Alley, Atsuhiro Muto, Anaïs J. Orsi, and Matthew K. Spencer
The Cryosphere, 12, 325–341, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-325-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-325-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Observations at the WAIS Divide site in West Antarctica show that near-surface snow is strongly altered by weather-related processes, such as strong winds and temperature fluctuations, producing features that are recognizable within the WDC06A ice core. Specifically, over 10 000 prominent crusts were observed in the upper 560 m of the core. We show that these crusts develop more often in summers, during relatively low-wind, low-humidity, clear-sky periods with intense daytime sunshine.
Feng Shi, Sen Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, Hugues Goosse, and Qiuzhen Yin
Clim. Past, 13, 1919–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed the multi-proxy precipitation field for China over the past 500 years, which includes three leading modes (a monopole, a dipole, and a triple) of precipitation variability. The dipole mode may be controlled by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability. Such reconstruction is an essential source of information to document the climate variability over decadal to centennial timescales and can be used to assess the ability of climate models to simulate past climate change.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Kristina Seftigen, Hugues Goosse, Francois Klein, and Deliang Chen
Clim. Past, 13, 1831–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Comparisons of proxy data to GCM-simulated hydroclimate are still limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterized. In this study, we bring together tree-ring paleoclimate evidence and CMIP5–PMIP3 model simulations of the last millennium hydroclimate variability across Scandinavia. We explore the consistency between the datasets and the role of external forcing versus internal variability in driving the hydroclimate changes regionally.
Tim Carlsen, Gerit Birnbaum, André Ehrlich, Johannes Freitag, Georg Heygster, Larysa Istomina, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Anaïs Orsi, Michael Schäfer, and Manfred Wendisch
The Cryosphere, 11, 2727–2741, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2727-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2727-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The optical size of snow grains (ropt) affects the reflectivity of snow surfaces and thus the local surface energy budget in particular in polar regions. The temporal evolution of ropt retrieved from ground-based, airborne, and spaceborne remote sensing could reproduce optical in situ measurements for a 2-month period in central Antarctica (2013/14). The presented validation study provided a unique testbed for retrievals of ropt under Antarctic conditions where in situ data are scarce.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, J. Melchior van Wessem, Jason Roberts, Elisabeth Isaksson, Elisabeth Schlosser, Tyler J. Fudge, Paul Vallelonga, Brooke Medley, Jan Lenaerts, Nancy Bertler, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Daniel A. Dixon, Massimo Frezzotti, Barbara Stenni, Mark Curran, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Clim. Past, 13, 1491–1513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Regional Antarctic snow accumulation derived from 79 ice core records is evaluated as part of the PAGES Antarctica 2k working group. Our results show that surface mass balance for the total Antarctic ice sheet has increased at a rate of 7 ± 0.13 Gt dec-1 since 1800 AD, representing a net reduction in sea level of ~ 0.02 mm dec-1 since 1800 and ~ 0.04 mm dec-1 since 1900 AD. The largest contribution is from the Antarctic Peninsula.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Frédéric Parrenin, Marie G. P. Cavitte, Donald D. Blankenship, Jérôme Chappellaz, Hubertus Fischer, Olivier Gagliardini, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Olivier Passalacqua, Catherine Ritz, Jason Roberts, Martin J. Siegert, and Duncan A. Young
The Cryosphere, 11, 2427–2437, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2427-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2427-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The oldest dated deep ice core drilled in Antarctica has been retrieved at EPICA Dome C (EDC), reaching ~ 800 000 years. Obtaining an older palaeoclimatic record from Antarctica is one of the greatest challenges of the ice core community. Here, we estimate the age of basal ice in the Dome C area. We find that old ice (> 1.5 Myr) likely exists in two regions a few tens of kilometres away from EDC:
Little Dome C Patchand
North Patch.
Nathan J. Steiger and Jason E. Smerdon
Clim. Past, 13, 1435–1449, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1435-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1435-2017, 2017
Elisabeth Schlosser, Anna Dittmann, Barbara Stenni, Jordan G. Powers, Kevin W. Manning, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Mauro Valt, Anselmo Cagnati, Paolo Grigioni, and Claudio Scarchilli
The Cryosphere, 11, 2345–2361, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2345-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2345-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
To derive paleotemperatures from ice cores we must know all processes involved in ice formation. At the Antarctic base Dome C, a unique precipitation data set plus stable water isotope data enabled us to study atmospheric processes influencing isotope ratios of precipitation in detail. Meteorological data from both automatic weather station and an atmospheric model were used to investigate how different atmospheric flow patterns determine the precipitation parameters used in paleoclimatology.
Jason Roberts, Andrew Moy, Christopher Plummer, Tas van Ommen, Mark Curran, Tessa Vance, Samuel Poynter, Yaping Liu, Joel Pedro, Adam Treverrow, Carly Tozer, Lenneke Jong, Pippa Whitehouse, Laetitia Loulergue, Jerome Chappellaz, Vin Morgan, Renato Spahni, Adrian Schilt, Cecilia MacFarling Meure, David Etheridge, and Thomas Stocker
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-96, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-96, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a revised Law Dome, Dome Summit South (DSS) ice core age model (denoted LD2017) that significantly improves the chronology over the last 88 thousand years. An ensemble approach was used, allowing for the computation of both a median age and associated uncertainty as a function of depth. We use a non-linear interpolation between age ties and unlike previous studies, we made an independent estimate of the snow accumulation rate, where required, for the use of gas based age ties.
Pirmin Philipp Ebner, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Barbara Stenni, Martin Schneebeli, and Aldo Steinfeld
The Cryosphere, 11, 1733–1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1733-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1733-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes (δ18O) obtained from snow and ice samples from polar regions are used to reconstruct past climate variability. We present an experimental study on the effect on the snow isotopic composition by airflow through a snowpack in controlled laboratory conditions. The disequilibrium between snow and vapor isotopes changed the isotopic content of the snow. These measurements suggest that metamorphism and its history affect the snow isotopic composition.
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, Karina von Schuckmann, David J. Beerling, Junji Cao, Shaun Marcott, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Michael J. Prather, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeremy Shakun, Pete Smith, Andrew Lacis, Gary Russell, and Reto Ruedy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global temperature now exceeds +1.25 °C relative to 1880–1920, similar to warmth of the Eemian period. Keeping warming less than 1.5 °C or CO2 below 350 ppm now requires extraction of CO2 from the air. If rapid phaseout of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, most extraction can be via improved agricultural and forestry practices. In contrast, continued high emissions places a burden on young people of massive technological CO2 extraction with large risks, high costs and uncertain feasibility.
Camille Bréant, Patricia Martinerie, Anaïs Orsi, Laurent Arnaud, and Amaëlle Landais
Clim. Past, 13, 833–853, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-833-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-833-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
All firn densification models applied to deglaciations show a large disagreement with δ15N measurements at sites in East Antarctica, predicting larger firn thickness during the Last Glacial Maximum, whereas δ15N suggests a reduced firn thickness compared to the Holocene. Here we present modifications, which significantly reduce the model–data mismatch for the gas trapping depth evolution over the last deglaciation at the coldest sites in East Antarctica, to the LGGE firn densification model.
Mélanie Wary, Frédérique Eynaud, Didier Swingedouw, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Jens Matthiessen, Catherine Kissel, Jena Zumaque, Linda Rossignol, and Jean Jouzel
Clim. Past, 13, 729–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-729-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-729-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The last glacial period was punctuated by abrupt climatic variations, whose cold atmospheric phases have been commonly associated with cold sea-surface temperatures and expansion of sea ice in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas. Here we provide direct evidence of a regional paradoxical see-saw pattern: cold Greenland and North Atlantic phases coincide with warmer sea-surface conditions and shorter seasonal sea-ice cover durations in the Norwegian Sea as compared to warm phases.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Eduardo Zorita, Christoph C. Raible, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 13, 629–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This contribution aims at assessing to what extent the analogue method, a classic technique used in other branches of meteorology and climatology, can be used to perform gridded reconstructions of annual temperature based on the limited information from available but un-calibrated proxies spread across different locations of the world. We conclude that it is indeed possible, albeit with certain limitations that render the method comparable to more classic techniques.
Anne-Katrine Faber, Bo Møllesøe Vinther, Jesper Sjolte, and Rasmus Anker Pedersen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5865–5876, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5865-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5865-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The recent decades loss of Arctic sea ice provide an interesting opportunity to study the impact of sea ice changes on the isotopic composition of Arctic precipitation. Using a climate model that can simulate water isotopes, we find that reduced sea ice extent yields more enriched isotope values while increased sea ice extent yields more
depleted isotope values. Results also show that the spatial distribution of the sea ice extent are important.
Anna Kozachek, Vladimir Mikhalenko, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Alexey Ekaykin, Patrick Ginot, Stanislav Kutuzov, Michel Legrand, Vladimir Lipenkov, and Susanne Preunkert
Clim. Past, 13, 473–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-473-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-473-2017, 2017
Mana Inoue, Mark A. J. Curran, Andrew D. Moy, Tas D. van Ommen, Alexander D. Fraser, Helen E. Phillips, and Ian D. Goodwin
Clim. Past, 13, 437–453, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-437-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-437-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A 120 m ice core from Mill Island, East Antarctica, was studied its chemical components. The Mill Island ice core contains 97 years of climate record (1913–2009) and has a mean snow accumulation of 1.35 m yr−1 (ice equivalent). Trace ion concentrations were generally higher than other Antarctic ice core sites. Nearby sea ice concentration was found to influence the annual mean sea salt record. The Mill Island ice core records are unexpectedly complex, with strong modulation of the trace chemistry.
Chris S.~M. Turney, Andrew Klekociuk, Christopher J. Fogwill, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Claire L. Parkinson, Gilbert Compo, Matthew Lazzara, Linda Keller, Rob Allan, Jonathan G. Palmer, Graeme Clark, and Ezequiel Marzinelli
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate that a mid-twentieth century decrease in geopotential height in the southwest Pacific marks a Rossby wave response to equatorial Pacific warming, leading to enhanced easterly airflow off George V Land. Our results suggest that in contrast to ozone hole-driven changes in the Amundsen Sea, the 1979–2015 increase in sea ice extent off George V Land may be in response to reduced northward Ekman drift and enhanced (near-coast) production as a consequence of low latitude forcing.
Chris S. M. Turney, Christopher J. Fogwill, Jonathan G. Palmer, Erik van Sebille, Zoë Thomas, Matt McGlone, Sarah Richardson, Janet M. Wilmshurst, Pavla Fenwick, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Kerry-Jayne Wilson, Lionel Carter, Mathew Lipson, Richard T. Jones, Melanie Harsch, Graeme Clark, Ezequiel Marzinelli, Tracey Rogers, Eleanor Rainsley, Laura Ciasto, Stephanie Waterman, Elizabeth R. Thomas, and Martin Visbeck
Clim. Past, 13, 231–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in global climate but suffers from a dearth of observational data. As the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013–2014 we have developed the first annually resolved temperature record using trees from subantarctic southwest Pacific (52–54˚S) to extend the climate record back to 1870. With modelling we show today's high climate variability became established in the ~1940s and likely driven by a Rossby wave response originating from the tropical Pacific.
Paul Vallelonga, Niccolo Maffezzoli, Andrew D. Moy, Mark A. J. Curran, Tessa R. Vance, Ross Edwards, Gwyn Hughes, Emily Barker, Gunnar Spreen, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, J. Pablo Corella, Carlos A. Cuevas, and Andrea Spolaor
Clim. Past, 13, 171–184, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-171-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-171-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a study of bromine, iodine and sodium in an ice core from Law Dome, in coastal East Antarctica. We find that bromine and iodine variability at Law Dome is correlated to changes in the area of sea ice along the Law Dome coast as observed by satellite since the early 1970s. These findings are in agreement with a previous study based on MSA and confirm a long-term trend of sea ice decrease for this sector of Antarctica over the 20th century.
Matthias Schneider, Christian Borger, Andreas Wiegele, Frank Hase, Omaira E. García, Eliezer Sepúlveda, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 507–525, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-507-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-507-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The characteristics of {H2O,δD} pair space-based remote sensing data depend on the atmospheric and surface conditions, which compromises their usage for model evaluation studies. This paper shows how the problem can be overcome by simulating MUSICA MetOp/IASI {H2O,δD} remote sensing products for any given model atmosphere. The remote sensing retrieval simulator is freely provided as a MATLAB and Python routine.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Susanne Preunkert, Michel Fily, Hubert Gallée, Bruno Jourdain, Michel Legrand, Olivier Magand, Bénédicte Minster, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 11, 343–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-343-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-343-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainty of sea level changes is a challenge. As Antarctica is the biggest water reservoir, it is necessary to know how it will contribute. To be able to simulate it, an understanding of past climate is to be achieved, for instance, by studying the ice cores. As climate change is different in different regions, observations are needed all over the continent. Studying an ice core in Adélie Land, we can conclude that there are no changes there at decadal scale over the period 1947–2007.
Alexey A. Ekaykin, Diana O. Vladimirova, Vladimir Y. Lipenkov, and Valérie Masson-Delmotte
Clim. Past, 13, 61–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-61-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-61-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the Antarctic climate system is crucial in the context of the present-day global environmental changes, but key gaps arise from limited observations. We present a new reconstructed stacked climate record for Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica. Records show 1 °C warming over the last 350 years, with a particularly cold period from the mid-18th to mid-19th century. Temperature variability with a period > 27 years is mainly related to the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole mode.
Michael Deininger, Martin Werner, and Frank McDermott
Clim. Past, 12, 2127–2143, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the NAO (Northern Atlantic Oscillation)-related mechanisms that control winter precipitation stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients across Europe. The results show that past longitudinal stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients in European rainfall stored in palaeoclimate archives (e.g. speleothems) can be used to infer the past winter NAO modes from its variations.
Paolo Gabrielli, Carlo Barbante, Giuliano Bertagna, Michele Bertó, Daniel Binder, Alberto Carton, Luca Carturan, Federico Cazorzi, Giulio Cozzi, Giancarlo Dalla Fontana, Mary Davis, Fabrizio De Blasi, Roberto Dinale, Gianfranco Dragà, Giuliano Dreossi, Daniela Festi, Massimo Frezzotti, Jacopo Gabrieli, Stephan P. Galos, Patrick Ginot, Petra Heidenwolf, Theo M. Jenk, Natalie Kehrwald, Donald Kenny, Olivier Magand, Volkmar Mair, Vladimir Mikhalenko, Ping Nan Lin, Klaus Oeggl, Gianni Piffer, Mirko Rinaldi, Ulrich Schotterer, Margit Schwikowski, Roberto Seppi, Andrea Spolaor, Barbara Stenni, David Tonidandel, Chiara Uglietti, Victor Zagorodnov, Thomas Zanoner, and Piero Zennaro
The Cryosphere, 10, 2779–2797, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2779-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2779-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
New ice cores were extracted from Alto dell'Ortles, the highest glacier of South Tyrol in the Italian Alps, to check whether prehistoric ice, which is coeval to the famous 5300-yr-old Tyrolean Iceman, is still preserved in this region. Dating of the ice cores confirms the hypothesis and indicates the drilling site has been glaciated since the end of the Northern Hemisphere Climatic Optimum (7000 yrs BP). We also infer that an unprecedented acceleration of the glacier flow has recently begun.
Mathieu Casado, Amaelle Landais, Ghislain Picard, Thomas Münch, Thomas Laepple, Barbara Stenni, Giuliano Dreossi, Alexey Ekaykin, Laurent Arnaud, Christophe Genthon, Alexandra Touzeau, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Jean Jouzel
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-263, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-263, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Ice core isotopic records rely on the knowledge of the processes involved in the archival of the snow. In the East Antarctic Plateau, post-deposition processes strongly affect the signal found in the surface and buried snow compared to the initial climatic signal. We evaluate the different contributions to the surface snow isotopic composition between the precipitation and the exchanges with the atmosphere and the variability of the isotopic signal found in profiles from snow pits.
Marie Bigot, Mark A. J. Curran, Andrew D. Moy, Derek C. G. Muir, Darryl W. Hawker, Roger Cropp, Camilla F. Teixeira, and Susan M. Bengtson Nash
The Cryosphere, 10, 2533–2539, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2533-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2533-2016, 2016
Barbara Stenni, Claudio Scarchilli, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Elisabeth Schlosser, Virginia Ciardini, Giuliano Dreossi, Paolo Grigioni, Mattia Bonazza, Anselmo Cagnati, Daniele Karlicek, Camille Risi, Roberto Udisti, and Mauro Valt
The Cryosphere, 10, 2415–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2415-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2415-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we focus on the Concordia Station, central East Antarctic plateau, providing a multi-year record (2008–2010) of daily precipitation types identified from crystal morphologies, precipitation amounts and isotopic composition. Relationships between local meteorological data and precipitation oxygen isotope composition are investigated. Our dataset is available for in-depth model evaluation at the synoptic scale.
Amaelle Landais, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Emilie Capron, Petra M. Langebroek, Pepijn Bakker, Emma J. Stone, Niklaus Merz, Christoph C. Raible, Hubertus Fischer, Anaïs Orsi, Frédéric Prié, Bo Vinther, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
Clim. Past, 12, 1933–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The last lnterglacial (LIG; 116 000 to 129 000 years before present) surface temperature at the upstream Greenland NEEM deposition site is estimated to be warmer by +7 to +11 °C compared to the preindustrial period. We show that under such warm temperatures, melting of snow probably led to a significant surface melting. There is a paradox between the extent of the Greenland ice sheet during the LIG and the strong warming during this period that models cannot solve.
Timothé Bolliet, Patrick Brockmann, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Franck Bassinot, Valérie Daux, Dominique Genty, Amaelle Landais, Marlène Lavrieux, Elisabeth Michel, Pablo Ortega, Camille Risi, Didier M. Roche, Françoise Vimeux, and Claire Waelbroeck
Clim. Past, 12, 1693–1719, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1693-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1693-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new database of past climate proxies which aims to facilitate the distribution of data by using a user-friendly interface. Available data from the last 40 years are often fragmented, with lots of different formats, and online libraries are sometimes nonintuitive. We thus built a new dynamic web portal for data browsing, visualizing, and batch downloading of hundreds of datasets presenting a homogeneous format.
François Ritter, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Martin Werner, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Anais Orsi, Melanie Behrens, Gerit Birnbaum, Johannes Freitag, Camille Risi, and Sepp Kipfstuhl
The Cryosphere, 10, 1647–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1647-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present successful continuous measurements of water vapor isotopes performed in Antarctica in January 2013. The interest is to understand the impact of the water vapor isotopic composition on the near-surface snow isotopes. Our study reveals a diurnal cycle in the snow isotopic composition in phase with the vapor. This finding suggests fractionation during the sublimation of the ice, which has an important consequence on the interpretation of water isotope variations in ice cores.
François Klein, Hugues Goosse, Nicholas E. Graham, and Dirk Verschuren
Clim. Past, 12, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyses global climate model simulations of long-term East African hydroclimate changes relative to proxy-based reconstructions over the last millennium. No common signal is found between model results and reconstructions as well as among the model time series, which suggests that simulated hydroclimate is mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing.
Mathieu Casado, Amaelle Landais, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Christophe Genthon, Erik Kerstel, Samir Kassi, Laurent Arnaud, Ghislain Picard, Frederic Prie, Olivier Cattani, Hans-Christian Steen-Larsen, Etienne Vignon, and Peter Cermak
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8521–8538, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8521-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8521-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Climatic conditions in Concordia are very cold (−55 °C in average) and very dry, imposing difficult conditions to measure the water vapour isotopic composition. New developments in infrared spectroscopy enable now the measurement of isotopic composition in water vapour traces (down to 20 ppmv). Here we present the results results of a first campaign of measurement of isotopic composition of water vapour in Concordia, the site where the 800 000 years long ice core was drilled.
Nathan Steiger and Gregory Hakim
Clim. Past, 12, 1375–1388, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1375-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1375-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a data assimilation algorithm that incorporates proxy data at arbitrary timescales. Within a synthetic-test framework, we find that atmosphere–ocean states are most skillfully reconstructed by incorporating proxies across multiple timescales compared to using them at short or long timescales alone. Additionally, reconstructions that incorporate long-timescale proxies improve the low-frequency components of the reconstructions relative to using only high-resolution proxies.
Anna Dittmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Jordan G. Powers, Kevin W. Manning, Martin Werner, and Koji Fujita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6883–6900, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6883-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6883-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
For a better understanding of the stable water isotope data from ice cores, recent time periods have to be analysed, where both measurements and model simulations are available. This was done for Dome Fuji by combining observations, synoptic analysis, back trajectories, and isotopic modelling. It was found that a more northerly moisture source does not necessarily mean a larger temperature difference between source area and deposition site and thus precipitation more depleted in heavy isotopes.
Carly R. Tozer, Tessa R. Vance, Jason L. Roberts, Anthony S. Kiem, Mark A. J. Curran, and Andrew D. Moy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1703–1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1703-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1703-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A 1013-year annual rainfall reconstruction was developed for the Williams River catchment in coastal eastern Australia, based on a linear relationship between sea salt deposition in East Antarctica and rainfall in eastern Australia. The reconstruction allows for the instrumental climate record (~ 100 years) to be assessed in the context of millennial climate variability, allowing for better characterisation of flood and drought risk.
Inga Labuhn, Valérie Daux, Olivier Girardclos, Michel Stievenard, Monique Pierre, and Valérie Masson-Delmotte
Clim. Past, 12, 1101–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1101-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1101-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents a reconstruction of summer droughts in France for the last 680 years, based on oxygen isotope ratios in tree ring cellulose from living trees and building timbers at two sites, Fontainebleau and Angoulême. Both sites show coherent drought patterns during the 19th and 20th century, and are characterized by increasing drought in recent decades. A decoupling between sites points to a more heterogeneous climate in France during earlier centuries.
Elisabeth Schlosser, Barbara Stenni, Mauro Valt, Anselmo Cagnati, Jordan G. Powers, Kevin W. Manning, Marilyn Raphael, and Michael G. Duda
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4757–4770, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4757-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4757-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Striking differences in the atmospheric flow and thus weather conditions in 2009 and 2010 at the Antarctic deep ice core drilling site Dome C were investigated using a mesoscale atmospheric model and precipitation measurements, and implications for interpretation of ice cores are discussed. Stable isotope ratios are commonly used to derive paleotemperatures and are strongly influenced by the prevailing atmospheric flow regime, namely a strong zonal flow or a highly meriodional flow.
Alexandra Touzeau, Amaëlle Landais, Barbara Stenni, Ryu Uemura, Kotaro Fukui, Shuji Fujita, Sarah Guilbaud, Alexey Ekaykin, Mathieu Casado, Eugeni Barkan, Boaz Luz, Olivier Magand, Grégory Teste, Emmanuel Le Meur, Mélanie Baroni, Joël Savarino, Ilann Bourgeois, and Camille Risi
The Cryosphere, 10, 837–852, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-837-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-837-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between water isotope ratios and temperature is investigated in precipitation snow at Vostok and Dome C, as well as in surface snow along traverses. The temporal slope of the linear regression for the precipitation is smaller than the geographical slope. Thus, using the latter could lead to an underestimation of past temperature changes. The processes active at remote sites (best glacial analogs) are explored through a combination of water isotopes in short snow pits.
Lucie Bazin, Amaelle Landais, Emilie Capron, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Catherine Ritz, Ghislain Picard, Jean Jouzel, Marie Dumont, Markus Leuenberger, and Frédéric Prié
Clim. Past, 12, 729–748, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-729-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-729-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present new measurements of δO2⁄N2 and δ18Oatm performed on well-conserved ice from EDC covering MIS5 and between 380 and 800 ka. The combination of the observation of a 100 ka periodicity in the new δO2⁄N2 record with a MIS5 multi-site multi-proxy study has revealed a potential influence of local climatic parameters on δO2⁄N2. Moreover, we propose that the varying delay between d18Oatm and precession for the last 800 ka is affected by the occurrence of ice sheet discharge events.
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Paul Hearty, Reto Ruedy, Maxwell Kelley, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Gary Russell, George Tselioudis, Junji Cao, Eric Rignot, Isabella Velicogna, Blair Tormey, Bailey Donovan, Evgeniya Kandiano, Karina von Schuckmann, Pushker Kharecha, Allegra N. Legrande, Michael Bauer, and Kwok-Wai Lo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We use climate simulations, paleoclimate data and modern observations to infer that continued high fossil fuel emissions will yield cooling of Southern Ocean and North Atlantic surfaces, slowdown and shutdown of SMOC & AMOC, increasingly powerful storms and nonlinear sea level rise reaching several meters in 50–150 years, effects missed in IPCC reports because of omission of ice sheet melt and an insensitivity of most climate models, likely due to excessive ocean mixing.
Tessa R. Vance, Jason L. Roberts, Andrew D. Moy, Mark A. J. Curran, Carly R. Tozer, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Nerilie J. Abram, Tas D. van Ommen, Duncan A. Young, Cyril Grima, Don D. Blankenship, and Martin J. Siegert
Clim. Past, 12, 595–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-595-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-595-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study details a systematic approach to finding a new high-resolution East Antarctic ice core site. The study initially outlines seven criteria that a new site must fulfil, encompassing specific accumulation, ice dynamics and atmospheric circulation aspects. We then use numerous techniques including Antarctic surface mass balance syntheses, ground-truthing of satellite data by airborne radar surveys and reanalysis products to pinpoint promising regions.
M. Werner, B. Haese, X. Xu, X. Zhang, M. Butzin, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 647–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the first results of a new isotope-enabled GCM set-up, based on the ECHAM5/MPI-OM fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Results of two equilibrium simulations under pre-industrial and Last Glacial Maximum conditions reveal a good to very good agreement with many delta O-18 and delta D observational records, and a remarkable improvement for the modelling of the deuterium excess signal in Antarctic ice cores.
C. S. M. Turney, C. J. Fogwill, A. R. Klekociuk, T. D. van Ommen, M. A. J. Curran, A. D. Moy, and J. G. Palmer
The Cryosphere, 9, 2405–2415, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2405-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2405-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Recent trends in ocean circulation, sea ice and climate over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica are highly complex. Here we report a new snow core from the South Pole alongside reanalysis of 20th century global atmospheric circulation. We demonstrate for the first time that atmospheric pressure anomalies in the mid-latitudes act as "gatekeepers" to meridional exchange over continental Antarctica, modulated by the tropical Pacific, with potentially significant impacts on surface mass balance.
S. Jasechko, A. Lechler, F. S. R. Pausata, P. J. Fawcett, T. Gleeson, D. I. Cendón, J. Galewsky, A. N. LeGrande, C. Risi, Z. D. Sharp, J. M. Welker, M. Werner, and K. Yoshimura
Clim. Past, 11, 1375–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we compile global isotope proxy records of climate changes from the last ice age to the late-Holocene preserved in cave calcite, glacial ice and groundwater aquifers. We show that global patterns of late-Pleistocene to late-Holocene precipitation isotope shifts are consistent with stronger-than-modern isotopic distillation of air masses during the last ice age, likely impacted by larger global temperature differences between the tropics and the poles.
A. Ellis, R. Edwards, M. Saunders, R. K. Chakrabarty, R. Subramanian, A. van Riessen, A. M. Smith, D. Lambrinidis, L. J. Nunes, P. Vallelonga, I. D. Goodwin, A. D. Moy, M. A. J. Curran, and T. D. van Ommen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 3959–3969, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-3959-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-3959-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Black carbon is an important environmental pollutant, and the structure and composition of these particles are important to measuring their affect on the climate. Historical records of black carbon emissions are stored in polar ice. This paper details a new method to study black carbon preserved in Antarctic ice cores. By combining filtration to concentrate the particles and electron microscopy to characterize them, this method opens up a new avenue to study the history of our atmosphere.
J.-L. Tison, M. de Angelis, G. Littot, E. Wolff, H. Fischer, M. Hansson, M. Bigler, R. Udisti, A. Wegner, J. Jouzel, B. Stenni, S. Johnsen, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Landais, V. Lipenkov, L. Loulergue, J.-M. Barnola, J.-R. Petit, B. Delmonte, G. Dreyfus, D. Dahl-Jensen, G. Durand, B. Bereiter, A. Schilt, R. Spahni, K. Pol, R. Lorrain, R. Souchez, and D. Samyn
The Cryosphere, 9, 1633–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1633-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1633-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The oldest paleoclimatic information is buried within the lowermost layers of deep ice cores. It is therefore essential to judge how deep these records remain unaltered. We study the bottom 60 meters of the EPICA Dome C ice core from central Antarctica to show that the paleoclimatic signal is only affected at the small scale (decimeters) in terms of some of the global ice properties. However our data suggest that the time scale has been considerably distorted by mechanical stretching.
V. Masson-Delmotte, H. C. Steen-Larsen, P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, T. Popp, B. M. Vinther, H. Oerter, A. E. Sveinbjornsdottir, H. Gudlaugsdottir, J. E. Box, S. Falourd, X. Fettweis, H. Gallée, E. Garnier, V. Gkinis, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, N. Paradis, A. Orsi, C. Risi, M. Werner, and J. W. C. White
The Cryosphere, 9, 1481–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The deep NEEM ice core provides the oldest Greenland ice core record, enabling improved understanding of the response of ice core records to local climate. Here, we focus on shallow ice cores providing a stack record of accumulation and water-stable isotopes spanning the past centuries. For the first time, we document the ongoing warming in a Greenland ice core. By combining our data with other Greenland ice cores and model results, we characterise the spatio-temporal patterns of variability.
R. Eichinger, P. Jöckel, S. Brinkop, M. Werner, and S. Lossow
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5537–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, 2015
J. Roberts, C. Plummer, T. Vance, T. van Ommen, A. Moy, S. Poynter, A. Treverrow, M. Curran, and S. George
Clim. Past, 11, 697–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-697-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-697-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The Law Dome, East Antarctica snow accumulation record is extended back to 22 BCE using a power-law vertical strain rate model. The periods of 380-442, 727-783 and 1970-2009 CE show above-average snow accumulation rates, while 663-704, 933-975 and 1429-1468 CE were below average. The calculated snow accumulation rates show good correlation with atmospheric reanalysis estimates and significant spatial correlation over a wide expanse of East Antarctica.
V. Zunz and H. Goosse
The Cryosphere, 9, 541–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, 2015
A. Cauquoin, A. Landais, G. M. Raisbeck, J. Jouzel, L. Bazin, M. Kageyama, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, M. Werner, E. Bard, and ASTER Team
Clim. Past, 11, 355–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-355-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-355-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new 10Be record at EDC between 269 and 355ka. Our 10Be-based accumulation rate is in good agreement with the one associated with the EDC3 timescale except for the warm MIS 9.3 optimum. This suggests that temperature reconstruction from water isotopes may be underestimated by 2.4K for the difference between the MIS 9.3 and present day. The CMIP5-PMIP3 models do not quantitatively reproduce changes in precipitation vs. temperature increase during glacial–interglacial transitions.
F. Parrenin, S. Fujita, A. Abe-Ouchi, K. Kawamura, V. Masson-Delmotte, H. Motoyama, F. Saito, M. Severi, B. Stenni, R. Uemura, and E. Wolff
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-377-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-377-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
M. Guillevic, L. Bazin, A. Landais, C. Stowasser, V. Masson-Delmotte, T. Blunier, F. Eynaud, S. Falourd, E. Michel, B. Minster, T. Popp, F. Prié, and B. M. Vinther
Clim. Past, 10, 2115–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2115-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2115-2014, 2014
A. Spolaor, P. Vallelonga, J. Gabrieli, T. Martma, M. P. Björkman, E. Isaksson, G. Cozzi, C. Turetta, H. A. Kjær, M. A. J. Curran, A. D. Moy, A. Schönhardt, A.-M. Blechschmidt, J. P. Burrows, J. M. C. Plane, and C. Barbante
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9613–9622, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9613-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9613-2014, 2014
M. F. Loutre, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, H. Goelzer, and E. Capron
Clim. Past, 10, 1541–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, 2014
N. V. Rokotyan, V. I. Zakharov, K. G. Gribanov, M. Schneider, F.-M. Bréon, J. Jouzel, R. Imasu, M. Werner, M. Butzin, C. Petri, T. Warneke, and J. Notholt
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2567–2580, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2567-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2567-2014, 2014
H. C. Steen-Larsen, A. E. Sveinbjörnsdottir, A. J. Peters, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. P. Guishard, G. Hsiao, J. Jouzel, D. Noone, J. K. Warren, and J. W. C. White
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7741–7756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7741-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7741-2014, 2014
V. Bastrikov, H. C. Steen-Larsen, V. Masson-Delmotte, K. Gribanov, O. Cattani, J. Jouzel, and V. Zakharov
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 1763–1776, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-1763-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-1763-2014, 2014
K. Gribanov, J. Jouzel, V. Bastrikov, J.-L. Bonne, F.-M. Breon, M. Butzin, O. Cattani, V. Masson-Delmotte, N. Rokotyan, M. Werner, and V. Zakharov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5943–5957, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5943-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5943-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
M. Butzin, M. Werner, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, C. Frankenberg, K. Gribanov, J. Jouzel, and V. I. Zakharov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5853–5869, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5853-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5853-2014, 2014
J.-L. Bonne, V. Masson-Delmotte, O. Cattani, M. Delmotte, C. Risi, H. Sodemann, and H. C. Steen-Larsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4419–4439, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4419-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4419-2014, 2014
H. Goosse and V. Zunz
The Cryosphere, 8, 453–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, 2014
H. C. Steen-Larsen, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Hirabayashi, R. Winkler, K. Satow, F. Prié, N. Bayou, E. Brun, K. M. Cuffey, D. Dahl-Jensen, M. Dumont, M. Guillevic, S. Kipfstuhl, A. Landais, T. Popp, C. Risi, K. Steffen, B. Stenni, and A. E. Sveinbjörnsdottír
Clim. Past, 10, 377–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-377-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-377-2014, 2014
G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 10, 221–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014
A. Mairesse, H. Goosse, P. Mathiot, H. Wanner, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, 2013
S. Hou, J. Chappellaz, D. Raynaud, V. Masson-Delmotte, J. Jouzel, P. Bousquet, and D. Hauglustaine
Clim. Past, 9, 2549–2554, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2549-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2549-2013, 2013
B. Haese, M. Werner, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1463–1480, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1463-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1463-2013, 2013
L. Bazin, A. Landais, B. Lemieux-Dudon, H. Toyé Mahamadou Kele, D. Veres, F. Parrenin, P. Martinerie, C. Ritz, E. Capron, V. Lipenkov, M.-F. Loutre, D. Raynaud, B. Vinther, A. Svensson, S. O. Rasmussen, M. Severi, T. Blunier, M. Leuenberger, H. Fischer, V. Masson-Delmotte, J. Chappellaz, and E. Wolff
Clim. Past, 9, 1715–1731, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1715-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1715-2013, 2013
S. Dubinkina and H. Goosse
Clim. Past, 9, 1141–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
H. C. Steen-Larsen, S. J. Johnsen, V. Masson-Delmotte, B. Stenni, C. Risi, H. Sodemann, D. Balslev-Clausen, T. Blunier, D. Dahl-Jensen, M. D. Ellehøj, S. Falourd, A. Grindsted, V. Gkinis, J. Jouzel, T. Popp, S. Sheldon, S. B. Simonsen, J. Sjolte, J. P. Steffensen, P. Sperlich, A. E. Sveinbjörnsdóttir, B. M. Vinther, and J. W. C. White
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4815–4828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4815-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4815-2013, 2013
M. Guillevic, L. Bazin, A. Landais, P. Kindler, A. Orsi, V. Masson-Delmotte, T. Blunier, S. L. Buchardt, E. Capron, M. Leuenberger, P. Martinerie, F. Prié, and B. M. Vinther
Clim. Past, 9, 1029–1051, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1029-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1029-2013, 2013
E. Capron, A. Landais, D. Buiron, A. Cauquoin, J. Chappellaz, M. Debret, J. Jouzel, M. Leuenberger, P. Martinerie, V. Masson-Delmotte, R. Mulvaney, F. Parrenin, and F. Prié
Clim. Past, 9, 983–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-983-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-983-2013, 2013
P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, 2013
M. Casado, P. Ortega, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Swingedouw, V. Daux, D. Genty, F. Maignan, O. Solomina, B. Vinther, N. Viovy, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 9, 871–886, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-871-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-871-2013, 2013
V. Zunz, H. Goosse, and F. Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 7, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, 2013
J. L. Roberts, A. D. Moy, T. D. van Ommen, M. A. J. Curran, A. P. Worby, I. D. Goodwin, and M. Inoue
The Cryosphere, 7, 263–273, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-263-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-263-2013, 2013
G. Lohmann, A. Wackerbarth, P. M. Langebroek, M. Werner, J. Fohlmeister, D. Scholz, and A. Mangini
Clim. Past, 9, 89–98, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-89-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-89-2013, 2013
S. Dietrich, M. Werner, T. Spangehl, and G. Lohmann
Clim. Past, 9, 13–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Ice Cores | Timescale: Millenial/D-O
Advances in conceptual modelling of the variable nature of Dansgaard-Oeschger events
Dansgaard–Oeschger events in climate models: review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol
Sea ice feedbacks influence the isotopic signature of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes: last interglacial HadCM3 simulations
Random and externally controlled occurrences of Dansgaard–Oeschger events
Quantifying molecular oxygen isotope variations during a Heinrich stadial
Natural periodicities and Northern Hemisphere–Southern Hemisphere connection of fast temperature changes during the last glacial period: EPICA and NGRIP revisited
Temperature reconstruction from 10 to 120 kyr b2k from the NGRIP ice core
Volcanic synchronisation of the EPICA-DC and TALDICE ice cores for the last 42 kyr BP
TALDICE-1 age scale of the Talos Dome deep ice core, East Antarctica
Jonathan Ortved Melcher, Sune Halkjær, Peter Ditlevsen, Peter L. Langen, Guido Vettoretti, and Sune Olander Rasmussen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2156, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new model that simulates Dansgaard-Oeschger events, dramatic and irregular climate shifts within past ice ages. The model consists of simplified equations inspired by ocean-current dynamics. We fine-tune this model to capture the Dansgaard-Oeschger events with unprecedented accuracy, providing deeper insights into past climate patterns. This helps us understand and predict complex climate changes, aiding future climate-change resilience efforts.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, and the D–O community members
Clim. Past, 19, 915–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland ice core records feature Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events, abrupt warming episodes followed by a gradual-cooling phase during mid-glacial periods. There is uncertainty whether current climate models can effectively represent the processes that cause D–O events. Here, we propose a Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS3) baseline protocol which is intended to provide modelling groups investigating D–O oscillations with a common framework.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, Paul J. Valdes, and Julia C. Tindall
Clim. Past, 16, 2485–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, 2020
Johannes Lohmann and Peter D. Ditlevsen
Clim. Past, 14, 609–617, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-609-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-609-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The climate of the last glacial period was frequently interrupted by rapid warming events, the cause of which is still unknown. One open question is whether the occurrence of events is random or externally controlled. We studied the temporal characteristics of warm and cold phases using statistical null models and find that they are well described as random processes modulated by two different external climate factors. This may help distinguish physical mechanisms for rapid climate change.
C. Reutenauer, A. Landais, T. Blunier, C. Bréant, M. Kageyama, M.-N. Woillez, C. Risi, V. Mariotti, and P. Braconnot
Clim. Past, 11, 1527–1551, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1527-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1527-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Isotopes of atmospheric O2 undergo millennial-scale variations during the last glacial period, and systematically increase during Heinrich stadials.
Such variations are mostly due to vegetation and water cycle processes.
Our modeling approach reproduces the main observed features of Heinrich stadials in terms of climate, vegetation and rainfall.
It highlights the strong role of hydrology on O2 isotopes, which can be seen as a global integrator of precipitation changes over vegetated areas.
T. Alberti, F. Lepreti, A. Vecchio, E. Bevacqua, V. Capparelli, and V. Carbone
Clim. Past, 10, 1751–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1751-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1751-2014, 2014
P. Kindler, M. Guillevic, M. Baumgartner, J. Schwander, A. Landais, and M. Leuenberger
Clim. Past, 10, 887–902, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-887-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-887-2014, 2014
M. Severi, R. Udisti, S. Becagli, B. Stenni, and R. Traversi
Clim. Past, 8, 509–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-509-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-509-2012, 2012
D. Buiron, J. Chappellaz, B. Stenni, M. Frezzotti, M. Baumgartner, E. Capron, A. Landais, B. Lemieux-Dudon, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Montagnat, F. Parrenin, and A. Schilt
Clim. Past, 7, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1-2011, 2011
Cited articles
Abram, N. J., McGregor, H. V., Tierney, J. E., Evans, M. N., McKay, N. P.,
Kaufman, D. S., Thirumalai, K., Martrat, B., Goosse, H., Phipps, S. J.,
Steig, E. J., Kilbourne, K. H., Saenger, C. P., Zinke, J., Leduc, G.,
Addison, J. A., Mortyn, P. G., Seidenkrantz, M. S., Sicre, M. A., Selvaraj,
K., Filipsson, H. L., Neukom, R., Gergis, J., Curran, M. A., and Von
Gunten, L.: Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and
continents, Nature, 536, 411–418, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature19082, 2016. a
Bhend, J., Franke, J., Folini, D., Wild, M., and Brönnimann, S.: An
ensemble-based approach to climate reconstructions, Clim. Past, 8, 963–976,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-963-2012, 2012. a
Casado, M., Landais, A., Picard, G., Münch, T., Laepple, T., Stenni, B.,
Dreossi, G., Ekaykin, A., Arnaud, L., Genthon, C., Touzeau, A.,
Masson-Delmotte, V., and Jouzel, J.: Archival of the water stable isotope
signal in East Antarctic ice cores, The Cryosphere Discuss.,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-263, 2016. a
Dansgaard, W.: Stable isotopes in precipitation, Tellus, 16, 436–468,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1964.tb00181.x, 1964. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P.,
Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P.,
Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, I., Biblot, J., Bormann, N.,
Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Greer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S.
B., Hersbach, H., Holm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kallberg, P., Kohler, M.,
Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Mong-Sanz, B. M., Morcette, J.-J., Park,
B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thepaut, J. N., and Vitart,
F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data
assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
Dubinkina, S., Goosse, H., Sallaz-Damaz, Y., Crespin, E., and Crucifix, M.:
Testing a particle filter to reconstruct climate changes over the past
centuries, Int. J. Bifurcat. Chaos, 21, 3611–3618,
https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127411030763, 2011. a
Dufresne, J. L., Foujols, M. a., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont,
O., Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., Benshila, R., Bony, S., Bopp,
L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic,
A., Cugnet, D., de Noblet, N., Duvel, J. P., Ethé, C., Fairhead, L.,
Fichefet, T., Flavoni, S., Friedlingstein, P., Grandpeix, J. Y., Guez, L.,
Guilyardi, E., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Ghattas, J.,
Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Krinner, G., Labetoulle, S., Lahellec, A.,
Lefebvre, M. P., Lefevre, F., Levy, C., Li, Z. X., Lloyd, J., Lott, F.,
Madec, G., Mancip, M., Marchand, M., Masson, S., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J.,
Musat, I., Parouty, S., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Schulz, M., Swingedouw, D.,
Szopa, S., Talandier, C., Terray, P., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Climate
change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: From CMIP3 to
CMIP5, Climate Dynam., 40, 2123–2165, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1,
2013. a
Ekaykin, A. A., Kozachek, A. V., Lipenkov, V. Y., and Shibaev, Y. A.:
Multiple climate shifts in the Southern Hemisphere over the past three
centuries based on central Antarctic snow pits and core studies, Ann.
Glaciol., 55, 259–266, https://doi.org/10.3189/2014AoG66A189, 2014. a
Gent, P. R., Danabasoglu, G., Donner, L. J., Holland, M. M., Hunke, E. C.,
Jayne, S. R., Lawrence, D. M., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P. J., Vertenstein, M.,
Worley, P. H., Yang, Z.-L., and Zhang, M.: The Community Climate System
Model Version 4, J. Climate, 24, 4973–4991, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1,
2011. a
Goosse, H.: Reconstructed and simulated temperature asymmetry between
continents in both hemispheres over the last centuries, Clim. Dynam., 48,
1483–1501, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3154-z, 2017. a
Goosse, H., Renssen, H., Timmermann, A., Bradley, R. S., and Mann, M. E.:
Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble
of simulations of the climate of the past millennium, Clim. Dynam., 27,
165–184, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0128-6, 2006. a
Goosse, H., Braida, M., Crosta, X., Mairesse, A., Masson-Delmotte, V.,
Mathiot, P., Neukom, R., Oerter, H., Philippon, G., Renssen, H., Stenni, B.,
van Ommen, T., and Verleyen, E.: Antarctic temperature changes during the
last millennium: evaluation of simulations and reconstructions, Quaternary Sci. Rev.,
55, 75–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.09.003, 2012. a, b, c, d, e, f
Goursaud, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Favier, V., Preunkert, S., Fily, M.,
Gallée, H., Jourdain, B., Legrand, M., Magand, O., Minster, B., and
Werner, M.: A 60-year ice-core record of regional climate from Adélie
Land, coastal Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 11, 343–362,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-343-2017, 2017. a
Goursaud, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Favier, V., Orsi, A., and Werner, M.:
Water stable isotope spatio-temporal variability in Antarctica in 1960–2013:
observations and simulations from the ECHAM5-wiso atmospheric general
circulation model, Clim. Past, 14, 923–946,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-923-2018, 2018. a, b, c, d, e, f
Hakim, G. J., Emile-Geay, J., Steig, E. J., Noone, D., Anderson, D. M.,
Tardif, R., Steiger, N., and Perkins, W. A.: The Last Millennium Climate
Reanalysis Project: Framework and First Results, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
121, 6745–6764, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD024751, 2016. a, b, c
IAEA/WMO: Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation, The GNIP Database,
available at: http://www.iaea.org/water, last access: 15 January 2018. a
Jones, J. M., Gille, S. T., Goosse, H., Abram, N. J., Canziani, P. O.,
Charman, D. J., Clem, K. R., Crosta, X., De Lavergne, C., Eisenman, I.,
England, M. H., Fogt, R. L., Frankcombe, L. M., Marshall, G. J.,
Masson-Delmotte, V., Morrison, A. K., Orsi, A. J., Raphael, M. N., Renwick,
J. A., Schneider, D. P., Simpkins, G. R., Steig, E. J., Stenni, B.,
Swingedouw, D., and Vance, T. R.: Assessing recent trends in high-latitude
Southern Hemisphere surface climate, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 917–926,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103, 2016. a, b, c, d
Jones, T. R., Cuffey, K. M., White, J. W., Steig, E. J., Buizert, C., Markle,
B. R., McConnell, J. R., and Sigl, M.: Water isotope diffusion in the WAIS
Divide ice core during the Holocene and last glacial, J. Geophys.
Res.-Earth, 122, 290–309, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JF003938, 2017. a
Jouzel, J.: Magnitude of isotope/temperature scaling for interpretation of
central Antarctic ice cores, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4361,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002677, 2003. a
Jouzel, J., Alley, R. B., Cuffey, K. M., Dansgaard, W., Grootes, P.,
Hoffmann, G., Johnsen, S. J., Koster, R. D., Peel, D., Shuman, C. A.,
Stievenard, M., Stuiver, M., and White, J.: Validity of the temperature
reconstruction from water isotopes in ice cores, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans,
102, 26471–26487, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC01283, 1997. a
Kalnay, E.: Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability,
Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 2003. a
Klein, F., Goosse, H., Graham, N. E., and Verschuren, D.: Comparison of
simulated and reconstructed variations in East African hydroclimate over the
last millennium, Clim. Past, 12, 1499–1518,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, 2016. a
Klein, F., Abram, N. J., Curran, M. A. J., Goosse, H., Goursaud, S.,
Masson-Delmotte, V., Moy, A., Neukom, R., Orsi, A., Jesper, S., Steiger, N.,
Stenni, B., and Werner, M.: Data assimilation-based surface temperature
reconstructions over the last two millennia over Antarctica, Data set,
Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2579204, 2019. a
Laepple, T., Münch, T., Casado, M., Hoerhold, M., Landais, A., and
Kipfstuhl, S.: On the similarity and apparent cycles of isotopic variations
in East Antarctic snow pits, The Cryosphere, 12, 169–187,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-169-2018, 2018. a
Lorenz, E. N.: Empirical orthogonal functions and statistical weather
prediction, Tech. rep., Statistical Forecasting Scientific Rep. 1,
Department of Meteorology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge,
MA, 1956. a
Masson-Delmotte, V., Dreyfus, G., Braconnot, P., Johnsen, S., Jouzel, J.,
Kageyama, M., Landais, A., Loutre, M.-F., Nouet, J., Parrenin, F., Raynaud,
D., Stenni, B., and Tuenter, E.: Past temperature reconstructions from deep
ice cores: relevance for future climate change, Clim. Past, 2, 145–165,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2-145-2006, 2006. a
Masson-Delmotte, V., Hou, S., Ekaykin, A., Jouzel, J., Aristarain, A.,
Bernardo, R. T., Bromwich, D., Cattani, O., Delmotte, M. M., Falourd, S.,
Frezzotti, M., Gallée, H., Genoni, L., Isaksson, E., Landais, A.,
Helsen, M. M., Hoffmann, G., Lopez, J., Morgan, V., Motoyama, H., Noone, D.,
Oerter, H., Petit, J. R., Royer, A., Uemura, R., Schmidt, G. A., Schlosser,
E., Simões, J. C., Steig, E. J., Stenni, B., Stievenard, M., Van Den
Broeke, M. R., Van De Wal, R. S., Van De Berg, W. J., Vimeux, F., and
White, J. W.: A review of antarctic surface snow isotopic composition:
Observations, atmospheric circulation, and isotopic modeling, J. Climate,
21, 3359–3387, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2139.1, 2008. a, b
Matsikaris, A., Widmann, M., and Jungclaus, J.: On-line and off-line data
assimilation in palaeoclimatology: a case study, Clim. Past, 11, 81–93,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-81-2015, 2015. a, b
Münch, T., Kipfstuhl, S., Freitag, J., Meyer, H., and Laepple, T.:
Constraints on post-depositional isotope modifications in East Antarctic firn
from analysing temporal changes of isotope profiles, The Cryosphere, 11,
2175–2188, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2175-2017, 2017. a
Orsi, A. J., Cornuelle, B. D., and Severinghaus, J. P.: Little Ice Age cold
interval in West Antarctica: Evidence from borehole temperature at the West
Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 1–7,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051260, 2012. a, b
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Joussaume, S., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., and
Abe-Ouchi, A.: Modeling and Data Syntheses of Past Climates: Paleoclimate
Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase II Workshop, Estes Park, Colorado,
15–19 September 2008, Eos T. Am. Geophys. Un., 90, p. 93,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009EO110013, 2009. a, b
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Fasullo, J., Jahn, A., Landrum, L.,
Stevenson, S., Rosenbloom, N., Mai, A., and Strand, G.: Climate variability
and change since 850 ce an ensemble approach with the community earth system
model, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 787–801, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00233.1,
2016. a
PAGES 2k-PMIP3 group: Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3
simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past
millennium, Clim. Past, 11, 1673–1699,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015, 2015. a, b
PAGES 2k Consortium: Continental-scale temperature variability during the
past two millennia, Nat. Geosci., 6, 339–346, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1797, 2013. a, b, c, d
Pendergrass, A. G., Hakim, G. J., Battisti, D. S., and Roe, G.: Coupled
air-mixed layer temperature predictability for climate reconstruction, J.
Climate, 25, 459–472, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4094.1, 2012. a
Rayner, N. A., Parker, D., Horton, E., Folland, C., Alexander, L., Rowell,
D., Kent, E., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature,
sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century,
J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003. a
Ritter, F., Steen-Larsen, H. C., Werner, M., Masson-Delmotte, V., Orsi, A.,
Behrens, M., Birnbaum, G., Freitag, J., Risi, C., and Kipfstuhl, S.: Isotopic
exchange on the diurnal scale between near-surface snow and lower atmospheric
water vapor at Kohnen station, East Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 10,
1647–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1647-2016, 2016. a
Roche, D. M.: δ18O water isotope in the iLOVECLIM model (version
1.0) – Part 1: Implementation and verification, Geosci. Model Dev., 6,
1481–1491, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1481-2013, 2013. a
Schlosser, E., Reijmer, C., Oerter, H., and Graf, W.: The influence of
precipitation origin on the delta(18)O-T relationship at Neumayer station,
Ekstromisen, Antarctica, Ann. Glaciol., 39, 41–48,
https://doi.org/10.3189/172756404781814276, 2004. a
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P.,
Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R.,
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K.,
Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for
use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 4,
33–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-33-2011, 2011. a
Schmidt, G. A., Kelley, M., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L.,
Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S. E., Bhat, M. K., Bleck, R., Canuto, V.,
Chen, Y.-h., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Genio, A. D., Fainchtein, R. D.,
Faluvegi, G., Hansen, J. E., Healy, R. J., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lacis,
A. a., Legrande, A. N., Lerner, J., Lo, K. K., Matthews, E. E., Menon, S.,
Miller, R. L., Oinas, V., Oloso, A. O., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Putman,
W. M., Rund, D., Romanou, A., Sato, M., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Syed,
R. A., Tausnev, N., Tsigaridis, K., Unger, N., Voulgarakis, A., Yao, M.-S.,
and Zhang, J.: Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2
contributions to the CMIP5 archive, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 6, 141–184,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000265, 2014. a
Schneider, D. P., Steig, E. J., Van Ommen, T. D., Dixon, D. A., Mayewski,
P. A., Jones, J. M., and Bitz, C. M.: Antarctic temperatures over the past
two centuries from ice cores, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, 1–5,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027057, 2006. a, b
Sime, L. C., Tindall, J. C., Wolff, E. W., Connolley, W. M., and Valdes,
P. J.: Antarctic isotopic thermometer during a CO2 forced warming
event, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010395,
2008. a, b
Sjolte, J., Sturm, C., Adolphi, F., Vinther, B. M., Werner, M., Lohmann, G.,
and Muscheler, R.: Solar and volcanic forcing of North Atlantic climate
inferred from a process-based reconstruction, Clim. Past, 14, 1179–1194,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, 2018. a, b, c, d
Smerdon, J. E.: Climate models as a test bed for climate reconstruction
methods: Pseudoproxy experiments, WIRES Clim. Change, 3, 63–77,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.149, 2012. a, b
Smerdon, J. E., Coats, S., and Ault, T. R.: Model-dependent spatial skill in
pseudoproxy experiments testing climate field reconstruction methods for the
Common Era, Clim. Dynam., 46, 1921–1942, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2684-0,
2016. a, b
Smith, K. L. and Polvani, L. M.: Spatial patterns of recent Antarctic
surface temperature trends and the importance of natural variability: lessons
from multiple reconstructions and the CMIP5 models, Clim. Dynam., 48,
2653–2670, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3230-4, 2017. a
Sodemann, H. and Stohl, A.: Asymmetries in the moisture origin of Antarctic
precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040242,
2009. a
Steiger, N. J.: Historical climate model output of ECHAM5-wiso from
1871–2011 at T106 resolution, Data set, Zenodo,
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1249604, 2018. a
Steiger, N. J., Hakim, G. J., Steig, E. J., Battisti, D. S., and Roe, G. H.:
Assimilation of time-averaged pseudoproxies for climate reconstruction, J.
Climate, 27, 426–441, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00693.1, 2014. a, b, c
Steiger, N. J., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, E. R., and Cook, B. I.: A
reconstruction of global hydroclimate and dynamical variables over the Common
Era, Scientific Data, 5, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.86, 2018. a, b
Stenni, B., Curran, M. A. J., Abram, N. J., Orsi, A., Goursaud, S.,
Masson-Delmotte, V., Neukom, R., Goosse, H., Divine, D., van Ommen, T.,
Steig, E. J., Dixon, D. A., Thomas, E. R., Bertler, N. A. N., Isaksson, E.,
Ekaykin, A., Werner, M., and Frezzotti, M.: Antarctic climate variability on
regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years, Clim. Past, 13,
1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t, u, v, w, x, y, z, aa, ab, ac, ad, ae, af, ag, ah, ai, aj, ak, al, am, an, ao, ap
Stevens, B., Giorgetta, M., Esch, M., Mauritsen, T., Crueger, T., Rast, S.,
Salzmann, M., Schmidt, H., Bader, J., Block, K., Brokopf, R., Fast, I.,
Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Lohmann, U., Pincus, R., Reichler, T., and
Roeckner, E.: The atmospheric component of the MPI-M earth system model:
ECHAM6, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 5, 1–27, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20015, 2013. a
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and
the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012. a, b, c
van Leeuwen, P. J.: Particle Filtering in Geophysical Systems, Mon. Weather
Rev., 137, 4089–4114, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2835.1, 2009. a
Wang, J., Emile-Geay, J., Guillot, D., Smerdon, J. E., and Rajaratnam, B.:
Evaluating climate field reconstruction techniques using improved emulations
of real-world conditions, Clim. Past, 10, 1–19,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1-2014, 2014. a
Werner, M., Langebroek, P. M., Carlsen, T., Herold, M., and Lohmann, G.:
Stable water isotopes in the ECHAM5 general circulation model: Toward
high-resolution isotope modeling on a global scale, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
116, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD015681, 2011. a, b, c, d
Widmann, M., Goosse, H., van der Schrier, G., Schnur, R., and Barkmeijer, J.:
Using data assimilation to study extratropical Northern Hemisphere climate
over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 6, 627–644,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-627-2010, 2010. a
Wu, T., Song, L., Li, W., Wang, Z., Zhang, H., Xin, X., Zhang, Y., Zhang, L.,
Li, J., Wu, F., Liu, Y., Zhang, F., Shi, X., Chu, M., Zhang, J., Fang, Y.,
Wang, F., Lu, Y., Liu, X., Wei, M., Liu, Q., Zhou, W., Dong, M., Zhao, Q.,
Ji, J., Li, L., and Zhou, M.: An overview of BCC climate system model
development and application for climate change studies, J. Meteorol. Res.,
28, 34–56, 2014. a
Short summary
Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope...
