Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 May 2023
Research article |
| 09 May 2023
| 09 May 2023
Quantifying the contribution of forcing and three prominent modes of variability to historical climate
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3JW,
United Kingdom
Gabriele C. Hegerl
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3JW,
United Kingdom
Hugues Goosse
Earth and Life Institute, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-La-Neuve, 1348, Belgium
Massimo A. Bollasina
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3JW,
United Kingdom
Matthew H. England
Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre for Excellence in
Antarctic Science, University of New South Wales, New South Wales, 2052, Australia
Michael J. Mineter
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3JW,
United Kingdom
Doug M. Smith
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Simon F. B. Tett
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3JW,
United Kingdom
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Lucie J. Lücke, Andrew P. Schurer, Matthew Toohey, Lauren R. Marshall, and Gabriele C. Hegerl
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Katherine E. Turner, Doug M. Smith, Anna Katavouta, and Richard G. Williams
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Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
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Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
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Nora L. S. Fahrenbach and Massimo A. Bollasina
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Jörg Franke, Michael N. Evans, Andrew Schurer, and Gabriele C. Hegerl
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Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
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Guillian Van Achter, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
The Cryosphere, 16, 4745–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, 2022
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Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
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Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
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Sophy Oliver, Coralia Cartis, Iris Kriest, Simon F. B Tett, and Samar Khatiwala
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3537–3554, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3537-2022, 2022
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Global ocean biogeochemical models are used within Earth system models which are used to predict future climate change. However, these are very computationally expensive to run and therefore are rarely routinely improved or calibrated to real oceanic observations. Here we apply a new, fast optimisation algorithm to one such model and show that it can calibrate the model much faster than previously managed, therefore encouraging further ocean biogeochemical model improvements.
Nicolas Ghilain, Stéphane Vannitsem, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Lesley De Cruz, and Wenguang Wei
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1901–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, 2022
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Modeling the climate at high resolution is crucial to represent the snowfall accumulation over the complex orography of the Antarctic coast. While ice cores provide a view constrained spatially but over centuries, climate models can give insight into its spatial distribution, either at high resolution over a short period or vice versa. We downscaled snowfall accumulation from climate model historical simulations (1850–present day) over Dronning Maud Land at 5.5 km using a statistical method.
Koffi Worou, Hugues Goosse, Thierry Fichefet, and Fred Kucharski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, 2022
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Over the Guinea Coast, the increased rainfall associated with warm phases of the Atlantic Niño is reasonably well simulated by 24 climate models out of 31, for the present-day conditions. In a warmer climate, general circulation models project a gradual decrease with time of the rainfall magnitude associated with the Atlantic Niño for the 2015–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods. There is a higher confidence in these changes over the equatorial Atlantic than over the Guinea Coast.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
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We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Liang Guo, Laura J. Wilcox, Massimo Bollasina, Steven T. Turnock, Marianne T. Lund, and Lixia Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15299–15308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, 2021
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Severe haze remains serious over Beijing despite emissions decreasing since 2008. Future haze changes in four scenarios are studied. The pattern conducive to haze weather increases with the atmospheric warming caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. However, the actual haze intensity, measured by either PM2.5 or optical depth, decreases with aerosol emissions. We show that only using the weather pattern index to predict the future change of Beijing haze is insufficient.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
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Lixia Zhang, Laura J. Wilcox, Nick J. Dunstone, David J. Paynter, Shuai Hu, Massimo Bollasina, Donghuan Li, Jonathan K. P. Shonk, and Liwei Zou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7499–7514, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7499-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7499-2021, 2021
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The projected frequency of circulation patterns associated with haze events and global warming increases significantly due to weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon. Rapid reduction in anthropogenic aerosol further increases the frequency of circulation patterns, but haze events are less dangerous. We revealed competing effects of aerosol emission reductions on future haze events through their direct contribution to haze intensity and their influence on the atmospheric circulation patterns.
Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, Marie G. P. Cavitte, and Liping Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 111–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, 2021
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Polynyas are ice-free oceanic areas within the sea ice pack. Small polynyas are regularly observed in the Southern Ocean, but large open-ocean polynyas have been rare over the past decades. Using records from available ice cores in Antarctica, we reconstruct past polynya activity and confirm that those events have also been rare over the past centuries, but the information provided by existing data is not sufficient to precisely characterize the timing of past polynya opening.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 4083–4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, 2020
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Surface mass balance (SMB) and surface air temperature (SAT) are correlated at the regional scale for most of Antarctica, SMB and δ18O. Areas with low/no correlation are where wind processes (foehn, katabatic wind warming, and erosion) are sufficiently active to overwhelm the synoptic-scale snow accumulation. Measured in ice cores, the link between SMB, SAT, and δ18O is much weaker. Random noise can be removed by core record averaging but local processes perturb the correlation systematically.
Laura J. Wilcox, Zhen Liu, Bjørn H. Samset, Ed Hawkins, Marianne T. Lund, Kalle Nordling, Sabine Undorf, Massimo Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Srinath Krishnan, Joonas Merikanto, and Andrew G. Turner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11955–11977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, 2020
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Projected changes in man-made aerosol range from large reductions to moderate increases in emissions until 2050. Rapid reductions between the present and the 2050s lead to enhanced increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation relative to scenarios with continued increases in aerosol. Relative magnitude and spatial distribution of aerosol changes are particularly important for South Asian summer monsoon precipitation changes, affecting the sign of the trend in the coming decades.
David Parkes and Hugues Goosse
The Cryosphere, 14, 3135–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, 2020
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Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and far between. We used a sophisticated glacier model to simulate glacier length changes over the last 1000 years for those glaciers that we do have long-term records of, to determine whether the model can run in a stable, realistic way over a long timescale, reproducing recent observed trends. We find that post-industrial changes are larger than other changes in this time period driven by recent warming.
Zhiqiang Lyu, Anais J. Orsi, and Hugues Goosse
Clim. Past, 16, 1411–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, 2020
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This paper uses two different ways to perform model–data comparisons for the borehole temperature in Antarctica. The results suggest most models generally reproduce the long-term cooling in West Antarctica from 1000 to 1600 CE and the recent 50 years of warming in West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula. However, The 19th-century cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula (−0.94 °C) is not reproduced by any of the models, which tend to show warming instead.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Hugues Goosse, Joël Guiot, Fabio Gennaretti, Etienne Boucher, Frédéric André, and Mathieu Jonard
Clim. Past, 16, 1043–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, 2020
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Tree rings are the main data source for climate reconstructions over the last millennium. Statistical tree-growth models have limitations that process-based models could overcome. Here, we investigate the possibility of using a process-based ecophysiological model (MAIDEN) as a complex proxy system model for palaeoclimate applications. We show its ability to simulate tree-growth index time series that can fit robustly tree-ring width observations under certain conditions.
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
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Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Louis de Wergifosse, Frédéric André, Nicolas Beudez, François de Coligny, Hugues Goosse, François Jonard, Quentin Ponette, Hugues Titeux, Caroline Vincke, and Mathieu Jonard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1459–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, 2020
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Given their key role in the simulation of climate impacts on tree growth, phenological and water balance processes must be integrated in models simulating forest dynamics under a changing environment. Here, we describe these processes integrated in HETEROFOR, a model accounting simultaneously for the functional, structural and spatial complexity to explore the forest response to forestry practices. The model evaluation using phenological and soil water content observations is quite promising.
Andrew E. Kiss, Andrew McC. Hogg, Nicholas Hannah, Fabio Boeira Dias, Gary B. Brassington, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Christopher Chapman, Peter Dobrohotoff, Catia M. Domingues, Earl R. Duran, Matthew H. England, Russell Fiedler, Stephen M. Griffies, Aidan Heerdegen, Petra Heil, Ryan M. Holmes, Andreas Klocker, Simon J. Marsland, Adele K. Morrison, James Munroe, Maxim Nikurashin, Peter R. Oke, Gabriela S. Pilo, Océane Richet, Abhishek Savita, Paul Spence, Kial D. Stewart, Marshall L. Ward, Fanghua Wu, and Xihan Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 401–442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-401-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-401-2020, 2020
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We describe new computer model configurations which simulate the global ocean and sea ice at three resolutions. The coarsest resolution is suitable for multi-century climate projection experiments, whereas the finest resolution is designed for more detailed studies over time spans of decades. The paper provides technical details of the model configurations and an assessment of their performance relative to observations.
Zhen Liu, Yi Ming, Chun Zhao, Ngar Cheung Lau, Jianping Guo, Massimo Bollasina, and Steve Hung Lam Yim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 223–241, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-223-2020, 2020
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OH and HO2 radicals are important trace constituents of the atmosphere that are closely coupled via several types of reaction. This paper describes a new laboratory method to simultaneously determine OH kinetics and HO2 yields from chemical processes. The instrument also provides some time resolution on HO2 detection allowing one to separate HO2 produced from the target reaction from HO2 arising from secondary chemistry. Examples of applications are presented.
Alcide Zhao, Massimo A. Bollasina, Monica Crippa, and David S. Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14517–14533, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14517-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14517-2019, 2019
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Emissions of aerosols over the recent past have been regulated largely by two policy-relevant drivers: energy-use growth and technology advances. These generate large and competing impacts on global radiation balance and climate, particularly over Asia, Europe, and the Arctic. This may help better assess and interpret future climate projections, and hence inform future climate change impact reduction strategies. Yet, it is pressing to better constrain various uncertainties related to aerosols.
Laura J. Wilcox, Nick Dunstone, Anna Lewinschal, Massimo Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, and Eleanor J. Highwood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9081–9095, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9081-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9081-2019, 2019
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Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions have increased rapidly since 1980. In winter, this has resulted in warming over China and cooling over India. Using models of different levels of complexity, we show that Asian-aerosol-induced heating anomalies in the western and northern North Pacific establish a circulation pattern that causes cooling in North America and Europe. This connection makes these regions potentially sensitive to any reductions of Asian aerosol emissions in the near future.
Christophe Bellisario, Helen E. Brindley, Simon F. B. Tett, Rolando Rizzi, Gianluca Di Natale, Luca Palchetti, and Giovanni Bianchini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7927–7937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7927-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7927-2019, 2019
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We explore the possibility of inferring far-infrared downwelling radiances from mid-infrared observations to better constrain radiation schemes in climate models. Our results imply that while it is feasible to use this type of approach, the quality of the extension will be strongly dependent on the noise characteristics of the observations and on the accurate characterisation of the atmospheric state.
François Klein, Nerilie J. Abram, Mark A. J. Curran, Hugues Goosse, Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Andrew Moy, Raphael Neukom, Anaïs Orsi, Jesper Sjolte, Nathan Steiger, Barbara Stenni, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019
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Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
Chris S. M. Turney, Helen V. McGregor, Pierre Francus, Nerilie Abram, Michael N. Evans, Hugues Goosse, Lucien von Gunten, Darrell Kaufman, Hans Linderholm, Marie-France Loutre, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 15, 611–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, 2019
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This PAGES (Past Global Changes) 2k (climate of the past 2000 years working group) special issue of Climate of the Past brings together the latest understanding of regional change and impacts from PAGES 2k groups across a range of proxies and regions. The special issue has emerged from a need to determine the magnitude and rate of change of regional and global climate beyond the timescales accessible within the observational record.
Doug M. Smith, James A. Screen, Clara Deser, Judah Cohen, John C. Fyfe, Javier García-Serrano, Thomas Jung, Vladimir Kattsov, Daniela Matei, Rym Msadek, Yannick Peings, Michael Sigmond, Jinro Ukita, Jin-Ho Yoon, and Xiangdong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1139–1164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1139-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1139-2019, 2019
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The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) is an endorsed contribution to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It will investigate the causes and global consequences of polar amplification through coordinated multi-model numerical experiments. This paper documents the experimental protocol.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
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Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Frazer D. W. Christie, Robert G. Bingham, Noel Gourmelen, Eric J. Steig, Rosie R. Bisset, Hamish D. Pritchard, Kate Snow, and Simon F. B. Tett
The Cryosphere, 12, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2461-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2461-2018, 2018
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With a focus on the hitherto little-studied Marie Byrd Land coastline linking Antarctica's more comprehensively studied Amundsen and Ross Sea Embayments, this paper uses both satellite remote sensing (Landsat, ASTER, ICESat, and CryoSat2) and climate and ocean records (i.e. ERA-Interim, Met Office EN4 data) to examine links between ice recession, inter-decadal atmosphere-ocean forcing and other influences acting upon the Pacific-facing coastline of West Antarctica.
Kaitlin A. Naughten, Katrin J. Meissner, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Matthew H. England, Ralph Timmermann, Hartmut H. Hellmer, Tore Hattermann, and Jens B. Debernard
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1257–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1257-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1257-2018, 2018
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MetROMS and FESOM are two ocean/sea-ice models which resolve Antarctic ice-shelf cavities and consider thermodynamics at the ice-shelf base. We simulate the period 1992–2016 with both models, and with two options for resolution in FESOM, and compare output from the three simulations. Ice-shelf melt rates, sub-ice-shelf circulation, continental shelf water masses, and sea-ice processes are compared and evaluated against available observations.
Feng Shi, Sen Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, Hugues Goosse, and Qiuzhen Yin
Clim. Past, 13, 1919–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, 2017
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We reconstructed the multi-proxy precipitation field for China over the past 500 years, which includes three leading modes (a monopole, a dipole, and a triple) of precipitation variability. The dipole mode may be controlled by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability. Such reconstruction is an essential source of information to document the climate variability over decadal to centennial timescales and can be used to assess the ability of climate models to simulate past climate change.
Kristina Seftigen, Hugues Goosse, Francois Klein, and Deliang Chen
Clim. Past, 13, 1831–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, 2017
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Comparisons of proxy data to GCM-simulated hydroclimate are still limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterized. In this study, we bring together tree-ring paleoclimate evidence and CMIP5–PMIP3 model simulations of the last millennium hydroclimate variability across Scandinavia. We explore the consistency between the datasets and the role of external forcing versus internal variability in driving the hydroclimate changes regionally.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
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Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Simon F. B. Tett, Kuniko Yamazaki, Michael J. Mineter, Coralia Cartis, and Nathan Eizenberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3567–3589, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3567-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3567-2017, 2017
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The paper shows it is possible to automatically calibrate the parameters in the atmospheric component of two climate models. The resulting atmosphere–ocean models are often, but not always, stable and realistic. The computational cost to do this is feasible. The implications are that it is possible to generate multiple configurations of a single model with different parameter values but which all look similar to the standard model and that the techniques could be used to calibrate other models.
Darren Slevin, Simon F. B. Tett, Jean-François Exbrayat, A. Anthony Bloom, and Mathew Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2651–2670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2651-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2651-2017, 2017
Chris S.~M. Turney, Andrew Klekociuk, Christopher J. Fogwill, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Claire L. Parkinson, Gilbert Compo, Matthew Lazzara, Linda Keller, Rob Allan, Jonathan G. Palmer, Graeme Clark, and Ezequiel Marzinelli
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We demonstrate that a mid-twentieth century decrease in geopotential height in the southwest Pacific marks a Rossby wave response to equatorial Pacific warming, leading to enhanced easterly airflow off George V Land. Our results suggest that in contrast to ozone hole-driven changes in the Amundsen Sea, the 1979–2015 increase in sea ice extent off George V Land may be in response to reduced northward Ekman drift and enhanced (near-coast) production as a consequence of low latitude forcing.
Chris S. M. Turney, Christopher J. Fogwill, Jonathan G. Palmer, Erik van Sebille, Zoë Thomas, Matt McGlone, Sarah Richardson, Janet M. Wilmshurst, Pavla Fenwick, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Kerry-Jayne Wilson, Lionel Carter, Mathew Lipson, Richard T. Jones, Melanie Harsch, Graeme Clark, Ezequiel Marzinelli, Tracey Rogers, Eleanor Rainsley, Laura Ciasto, Stephanie Waterman, Elizabeth R. Thomas, and Martin Visbeck
Clim. Past, 13, 231–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, 2017
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The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in global climate but suffers from a dearth of observational data. As the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013–2014 we have developed the first annually resolved temperature record using trees from subantarctic southwest Pacific (52–54˚S) to extend the climate record back to 1870. With modelling we show today's high climate variability became established in the ~1940s and likely driven by a Rossby wave response originating from the tropical Pacific.
George J. Boer, Douglas M. Smith, Christophe Cassou, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ben Kirtman, Yochanan Kushnir, Masahide Kimoto, Gerald A. Meehl, Rym Msadek, Wolfgang A. Mueller, Karl E. Taylor, Francis Zwiers, Michel Rixen, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, and Rosie Eade
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3751–3777, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3751-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3751-2016, 2016
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The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) investigates our ability to skilfully predict climate variations from a year to a decade ahead by means of a series of retrospective forecasts. Quasi-real-time forecasts are also produced for potential users. In addition, the DCPP investigates how perturbations such as volcanoes affect forecasts and, more broadly, what new information can be learned about the mechanisms governing climate variations by means of case studies of past climate behaviour.
François Klein, Hugues Goosse, Nicholas E. Graham, and Dirk Verschuren
Clim. Past, 12, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, 2016
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This paper analyses global climate model simulations of long-term East African hydroclimate changes relative to proxy-based reconstructions over the last millennium. No common signal is found between model results and reconstructions as well as among the model time series, which suggests that simulated hydroclimate is mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing.
Willem P. Sijp and Matthew H. England
Clim. Past, 12, 543–552, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-543-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-543-2016, 2016
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The polar warmth of the greenhouse climates in the Earth's past represents a fundamentally different climate state to that of today, with a strongly reduced temperature difference between the Equator and the poles. It is commonly thought that this would lead to a more quiescent ocean, with much reduced ventilation of the abyss. Surprisingly, using a Cretaceous cimate model, we find that ocean overturning is not weaker under a reduced temperature gradient arising from amplified polar heat.
E. C. Turner, H.-T. Lee, and S. F. B. Tett
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6561–6575, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6561-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6561-2015, 2015
V. Zunz and H. Goosse
The Cryosphere, 9, 541–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, 2015
D. Slevin, S. F. B. Tett, and M. Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 295–316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-295-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-295-2015, 2015
M. F. Loutre, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, H. Goelzer, and E. Capron
Clim. Past, 10, 1541–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
H. Goosse and V. Zunz
The Cryosphere, 8, 453–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, 2014
L. Menviel, A. Timmermann, T. Friedrich, and M. H. England
Clim. Past, 10, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-63-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-63-2014, 2014
A. Mairesse, H. Goosse, P. Mathiot, H. Wanner, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, 2013
S. McGregor, A. Timmermann, M. H. England, O. Elison Timm, and A. T. Wittenberg
Clim. Past, 9, 2269–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2269-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2269-2013, 2013
S. Dubinkina and H. Goosse
Clim. Past, 9, 1141–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, 2013
V. Zunz, H. Goosse, and F. Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 7, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Atmospheric Dynamics | Archive: Historical Records | Timescale: Instrumental Period
Air temperature changes in SW Greenland in the second half of the 18th century
Early 20th century Southern Hemisphere cooling
Precipitation reconstructions for Paris based on the observations by Louis Morin, 1665–1713 CE
Earliest meteorological readings in San Fernando (Cádiz, Spain, 1799–1813)
The weather diaries of the Kirch family: Leipzig, Guben, and Berlin (1677–1774)
A 258-year-long data set of temperature and precipitation fields for Switzerland since 1763
Statistical reconstruction of daily temperature and sea level pressure in Europe for the severe winter 1788/89
Insights from 20 years of temperature parallel measurements in Mauritius around the turn of the 20th century
Unlocking weather observations from the Societas Meteorologica Palatina (1781–1792)
The 1921 European drought: impacts, reconstruction and drivers
The importance of input data quality and quantity in climate field reconstructions – results from the assimilation of various tree-ring collections
Reconstruction of the track and a simulation of the storm surge associated with the calamitous typhoon affecting the Pearl River Estuary in September 1874
Early instrumental meteorological measurements in Switzerland
The "dirty weather" diaries of Reverend Richard Davis: insights about early colonial-era meteorology and climate variability for northern New Zealand, 1839–1851
A collection of sub-daily pressure and temperature observations for the early instrumental period with a focus on the "year without a summer" 1816
East Asian Monsoon controls on the inter-annual variability in precipitation isotope ratio in Japan
Investigating uncertainties in global gridded datasets of climate extremes
HadISDH land surface multi-variable humidity and temperature record for climate monitoring
Pairwise homogeneity assessment of HadISD
Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781–1785
HadISDH: an updateable land surface specific humidity product for climate monitoring
Reconstruction of high resolution atmospheric fields for Northern Europe using analog-upscaling
Early Portuguese meteorological measurements (18th century)
Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland
Inferences on weather extremes and weather-related disasters: a review of statistical methods
Benchmarking homogenization algorithms for monthly data
The construction of a Central Netherlands temperature
Early ship-based upper-air data and comparison with the Twentieth Century Reanalysis
The influence of the circulation on surface temperature and precipitation patterns over Europe
Rajmund Przybylak, Garima Singh, Przemysław Wyszyński, Andrzej Araźny, and Konrad Chmist
Clim. Past, 20, 1451–1470, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1451-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1451-2024, 2024
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The purpose of this study is to recognise the nature of the climate in historical times (second half of 18th century) in Greenland. Such knowledge is important for validating Greenland temperature reconstructions based on both modelling works and various proxies. The two unique series of old meteorological observations from Greenland we used indicated that temperature in the study period was comparable to that of the early 20th-century Arctic warming but lower than that of the present day.
Stefan Brönnimann, Yuri Brugnara, and Clive Wilkinson
Clim. Past, 20, 757–767, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-757-2024, 2024
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The early 20th century warming – the first phase of global warming in the 20th century – started from a peculiar cold state around 1910. We digitised additional ship logbooks for these years to study this specific climate state and found that it is real and likely an overlap of several climatic anomalies, including oceanic variability (La Niña) and volcanic eruptions.
Thomas Pliemon, Ulrich Foelsche, Christian Rohr, and Christian Pfister
Clim. Past, 19, 2237–2256, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2237-2023, 2023
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Louis Morin consistently recorded precipitation intensity and duration between 1665 and 1713. We use these records to reconstruct precipitation totals. This reconstruction is validated by several methods and then presented using precipitation indexes. What is exceptional about this dataset is the availability of a sub-daily resolution and the low number of missing data points over the entire observation period.
Nieves Bravo-Paredes, María Cruz Gallego, Ricardo M. Trigo, and José Manuel Vaquero
Clim. Past, 19, 1397–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1397-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1397-2023, 2023
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We present the earliest records made in San Fernando, very close to Cádiz (SW Spain). Several previous works have already recovered a significant number of meteorological records of interest in these localities. However, more than 40 000 daily meteorological observations recorded at the Royal Observatory of the Spanish Navy (located in San Fernando) were previously unnoticed and remained neither digitized nor studied. We analyze in detail these newly recovered meteorological readings.
Stefan Brönnimann and Yuri Brugnara
Clim. Past, 19, 1435–1445, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1435-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1435-2023, 2023
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We present the weather diaries of the Kirch family from 1677–1774 containing weather observations made in Leipzig and Guben and, from 1701 onward, instrumental observations made in Berlin. We publish the imaged diaries (10 445 images) and the digitized measurements (from 1720 onward). This is one of the oldest and longest meteorological records from Germany. The digitized pressure data show good agreement with neighbouring stations, highlighting their potential for weather reconstruction.
Noemi Imfeld, Lucas Pfister, Yuri Brugnara, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 19, 703–729, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-703-2023, 2023
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Climate reconstructions give insights into monthly and seasonal climate variability of the past few hundred years. However, to understand past extreme weather events and to relate them to impacts, for example to periods of extreme floods, reconstructions on a daily timescale are needed. Here, we present a reconstruction of 258 years of high-resolution daily temperature and precipitation fields for Switzerland covering the period 1763 to 2020, which is based on instrumental measurements.
Duncan Pappert, Mariano Barriendos, Yuri Brugnara, Noemi Imfeld, Sylvie Jourdain, Rajmund Przybylak, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 18, 2545–2565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2545-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2545-2022, 2022
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We present daily temperature and sea level pressure fields for Europe for the severe winter 1788/1789 based on historical meteorological measurements and an analogue reconstruction approach. The resulting reconstruction skilfully reproduces temperature and pressure variations over central and western Europe. We find intense blocking systems over northern Europe and several abrupt, strong cold air outbreaks, demonstrating that quantitative weather reconstruction of past extremes is possible.
Samuel O. Awe, Martin Mahony, Edley Michaud, Conor Murphy, Simon J. Noone, Victor K. C. Venema, Thomas G. Thorne, and Peter W. Thorne
Clim. Past, 18, 793–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-793-2022, 2022
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We unearth and analyse 2 decades of highly valuable measurements made on Mauritius at the Royal Alfred Observatory, where several distinct thermometer combinations were in use and compared, at the turn of the 20th century. This series provides unique insights into biases in early instrumental temperature records. Differences are substantial and for some instruments exhibit strong seasonality. This reinforces the critical importance of understanding early instrumental series biases.
Duncan Pappert, Yuri Brugnara, Sylvie Jourdain, Aleksandra Pospieszyńska, Rajmund Przybylak, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 17, 2361–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2361-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2361-2021, 2021
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This paper presents temperature and pressure measurements from the 37 stations of the late 18th century network of the Societas Meteorologica Palatina, in addition to providing an inventory of the available observations, most of which have been digitised. The quality of the recovered series is relatively good, as demonstrated by two case studies. Early instrumental data such as these will help to explore past climate and weather extremes in Europe in greater detail.
Gerard van der Schrier, Richard P. Allan, Albert Ossó, Pedro M. Sousa, Hans Van de Vyver, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Roberto Coscarelli, Angela A. Pasqua, Olga Petrucci, Mary Curley, Mirosław Mietus, Janusz Filipiak, Petr Štěpánek, Pavel Zahradníček, Rudolf Brázdil, Ladislava Řezníčková, Else J. M. van den Besselaar, Ricardo Trigo, and Enric Aguilar
Clim. Past, 17, 2201–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, 2021
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The 1921 drought was the most severe drought to hit Europe since the start of the 20th century. Here the climatological description of the drought is coupled to an overview of its impacts, sourced from newspapers, and an analysis of its drivers. The area from Ireland to the Ukraine was affected but hardest hit was the triangle between Brussels, Paris and Lyon. The drought impacts lingered on until well into autumn and winter, affecting water supply and agriculture and livestock farming.
Jörg Franke, Veronika Valler, Stefan Brönnimann, Raphael Neukom, and Fernando Jaume-Santero
Clim. Past, 16, 1061–1074, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1061-2020, 2020
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This study explores the influence of the input data choice on spatial climate reconstructions. We compare three tree-ring-based data sets which range from small sample size, small spatial coverage and strict screening for temperature sensitivity to the opposite. We achieve the best spatial reconstruction quality by combining all available input data but rejecting records with little and uncertain climatic information and considering moisture availability as an additional growth limitation.
Hing Yim Mok, Wing Hong Lui, Dick Shum Lau, and Wang Chun Woo
Clim. Past, 16, 51–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-51-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-51-2020, 2020
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Using available information from historical documents, the maximum storm surge and storm tide at Hong Kong during the passage of a typhoon in 1874 were determined by reconstructing the possible typhoon track and found to be higher than all existing records since the 1883 establishment of the Hong Kong Observatory. This reveals that a more detailed frequency analysis of extreme sea levels taking the 1874 typhoon into account is essential for realistic storm surge risk assessments in Hong Kong.
Lucas Pfister, Franziska Hupfer, Yuri Brugnara, Lukas Munz, Leonie Villiger, Lukas Meyer, Mikhaël Schwander, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 15, 1345–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1345-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1345-2019, 2019
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The 18th and early 19th centuries saw pronounced climatic variations with impacts on the environment and society. Although instrumental meteorological data for that period exist, only a small fraction has been the subject of research. This study provides an overview of early instrumental meteorological records in Switzerland resulting from an archive survey and demonstrates the great potential of such data. It is accompanied by the online publication of the imaged data series and metadata.
Andrew M. Lorrey and Petra R. Chappell
Clim. Past, 12, 553–573, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-553-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-553-2016, 2016
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The meteorological diary of Reverend Richard Davis (1839–1844; 1848–1851) is the earliest continuous daily instrumental weather observation record for New Zealand. It pre-dates James Hector's meteorological network by more than 20 years, and it contains evidence that temperatures for May–August were on average colder than present day in Northland. Some weather extremes Davis also witnessed may have been more frequent in the mid-1800s relative to the modern era, including frost, ice and snow.
Y. Brugnara, R. Auchmann, S. Brönnimann, R. J. Allan, I. Auer, M. Barriendos, H. Bergström, J. Bhend, R. Brázdil, G. P. Compo, R. C. Cornes, F. Dominguez-Castro, A. F. V. van Engelen, J. Filipiak, J. Holopainen, S. Jourdain, M. Kunz, J. Luterbacher, M. Maugeri, L. Mercalli, A. Moberg, C. J. Mock, G. Pichard, L. Řezníčková, G. van der Schrier, V. Slonosky, Z. Ustrnul, M. A. Valente, A. Wypych, and X. Yin
Clim. Past, 11, 1027–1047, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, 2015
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A data set of instrumental pressure and temperature observations for the early instrumental period (before ca. 1850) is described. This is the result of a digitisation effort involving the period immediately after the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815, combined with the collection of already available sub-daily time series. The highest data availability is therefore for the years 1815 to 1817. An analysis of pressure variability and of case studies in Europe is performed for that period.
N. Kurita, Y. Fujiyoshi, T. Nakayama, Y. Matsumi, and H. Kitagawa
Clim. Past, 11, 339–353, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-339-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-339-2015, 2015
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This study demonstrates that the intensity of the East Asian summer and winter monsoon is the primary driver of variations of summer and winter precipitation isotopes in central Japan. Japan lies in the northeast limits of the East Asian monsoon region. Understanding the past monsoon changes in Japan is important for determining whether the isotopic variability recorded in Chinese stalagmite reflects the East Asian summer monsoon intensity or rainfall variability in the Indian summer monsoon.
R. J. H. Dunn, M. G. Donat, and L. V. Alexander
Clim. Past, 10, 2171–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2171-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2171-2014, 2014
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Observational data sets contain uncertainties, e.g. from the instrument accuracy, as well as from the fact that usually only a single method is used in processing. We have performed an assessment of the size of the uncertainties associated with choices in the method used. The largest effects come from changes which affect the station network or the gridding method used. However, for the temperature indices in places with many stations, these changes have little effect on the long-term behaviour.
K. M. Willett, R. J. H. Dunn, P. W. Thorne, S. Bell, M. de Podesta, D. E. Parker, P. D. Jones, and C. N. Williams Jr.
Clim. Past, 10, 1983–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1983-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1983-2014, 2014
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We have developed HadISDH, a new gridded global land monthly mean climate montitoring product for humidity and temperature from 1973 to then end of 2013 (updated annually) based entirely on in situ observations. Uncertainty estimates are provided. Over the period of record significant warming and increases in water vapour have taken place. The specific humidity trends have slowed since a peak in 1998 concurrent with decreasing relative humidity from 2000 onwards.
R. J. H. Dunn, K. M. Willett, C. P. Morice, and D. E. Parker
Clim. Past, 10, 1501–1522, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1501-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1501-2014, 2014
P. Yiou, M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, E. Garnier, F. Fluteau, and L. Menut
Clim. Past, 10, 797–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-797-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-797-2014, 2014
K. M. Willett, C. N. Williams Jr., R. J. H. Dunn, P. W. Thorne, S. Bell, M. de Podesta, P. D. Jones, and D. E. Parker
Clim. Past, 9, 657–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-657-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-657-2013, 2013
F. Schenk and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 8, 1681–1703, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1681-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1681-2012, 2012
M. J. Alcoforado, J. M. Vaquero, R. M. Trigo, and J. P. Taborda
Clim. Past, 8, 353–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-353-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-353-2012, 2012
R. Auchmann, S. Brönnimann, L. Breda, M. Bühler, R. Spadin, and A. Stickler
Clim. Past, 8, 325–335, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-325-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-325-2012, 2012
H. Visser and A. C. Petersen
Clim. Past, 8, 265–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-265-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-265-2012, 2012
V. K. C. Venema, O. Mestre, E. Aguilar, I. Auer, J. A. Guijarro, P. Domonkos, G. Vertacnik, T. Szentimrey, P. Stepanek, P. Zahradnicek, J. Viarre, G. Müller-Westermeier, M. Lakatos, C. N. Williams, M. J. Menne, R. Lindau, D. Rasol, E. Rustemeier, K. Kolokythas, T. Marinova, L. Andresen, F. Acquaotta, S. Fratianni, S. Cheval, M. Klancar, M. Brunetti, C. Gruber, M. Prohom Duran, T. Likso, P. Esteban, and T. Brandsma
Clim. Past, 8, 89–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-89-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-89-2012, 2012
G. van der Schrier, A. van Ulden, and G. J. van Oldenborgh
Clim. Past, 7, 527–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-527-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-527-2011, 2011
S. Brönnimann, G. P. Compo, R. Spadin, R. Allan, and W. Adam
Clim. Past, 7, 265–276, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-265-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-265-2011, 2011
P. D. Jones and D. H. Lister
Clim. Past, 5, 259–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-259-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-259-2009, 2009
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Short summary
We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three...
