Climate of the Past
Climate of the Past
CP
Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
Research article
 | 
09 May 2023
Research article |  | 09 May 2023

Quantifying the contribution of forcing and three prominent modes of variability to historical climate

Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023-supplement

Data sets

Particle filter HadCM3 simulation, 1781-2008 A. Schurer, M. Mineter, G. Hegerl, H. Goosse, M. Bollasina, M. England, D. Smith, and S. Tett https://doi.org/10.7488/ds/3829

10 member ensemble of HadCM3 simulations, 1780-2009 A. Schurer, M. Mineter, and S. Tett https://doi.org/10.7488/ds/3827

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - 1,100 Year El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index Reconstruction J. Li, S.-P. Xie, E. R. Cook, G. Huang, R. D. D'Arrigo, F. Liu, J. Ma, and X.-T. Zheng https://doi.org/10.25921/c8ez-6f86

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Central Equatorial Pacific NINO3.4 850 Year SST Reconstructions J. Emile-Geay, K. M. Cobb, M. E. Mann, and A. T. Wittenberg https://doi.org/10.25921/t8hf-mt92

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Southern Annular Mode 1000 Year Reconstruction N. J. Abram, R. Mulvaney, F. Vimeux, S. J. Phipps, J. Turner, and M. H. England https://doi.org/10.25921/3egm-zr66

An observation-based Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode Index Legacy UK https://legacy.bas.ac.uk/met/gjma/sam.html

Hadley Centre SST data set (HadSST3) now deprecated Met Office https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/

HadSST.4.0.1.0 Met Office https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst4/

HadCRUT5 Met Office https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5/

GPCC Full Data Monthly Product Version 2020 at 2.5°: Monthly Land-Surface Precipitation from Rain-Gauges built on GTS-based and Historical Data U. Schneider, A. Becker, P. Finger, E. Rustemeier, and M. Ziese https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/FD_M_V2020_250

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Xoplaki 2005, Luterbacher 2004 European Seasonal Temperature Reconstructions J. Luterbacher, D. Dietrich, E. Xoplaki, M. Grosjean, H. Wanner, H. Paeth, and N. Steiner https://doi.org/10.25921/1hw9-nz71

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Short summary
We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
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