Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
Research article
09 May 2023
Research article |  | 09 May 2023

Quantifying the contribution of forcing and three prominent modes of variability to historical climate

Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett

Data sets

Particle filter HadCM3 simulation, 1781-2008 A. Schurer, M. Mineter, G. Hegerl, H. Goosse, M. Bollasina, M. England, D. Smith, and S. Tett

10 member ensemble of HadCM3 simulations, 1780-2009 A. Schurer, M. Mineter, and S. Tett

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - 1,100 Year El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index Reconstruction J. Li, S.-P. Xie, E. R. Cook, G. Huang, R. D. D'Arrigo, F. Liu, J. Ma, and X.-T. Zheng

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Central Equatorial Pacific NINO3.4 850 Year SST Reconstructions J. Emile-Geay, K. M. Cobb, M. E. Mann, and A. T. Wittenberg

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Southern Annular Mode 1000 Year Reconstruction N. J. Abram, R. Mulvaney, F. Vimeux, S. J. Phipps, J. Turner, and M. H. England

An observation-based Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode Index Legacy UK

Hadley Centre SST data set (HadSST3) now deprecated Met Office

HadSST. Met Office

HadCRUT5 Met Office

GPCC Full Data Monthly Product Version 2020 at 2.5°: Monthly Land-Surface Precipitation from Rain-Gauges built on GTS-based and Historical Data U. Schneider, A. Becker, P. Finger, E. Rustemeier, and M. Ziese

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Xoplaki 2005, Luterbacher 2004 European Seasonal Temperature Reconstructions J. Luterbacher, D. Dietrich, E. Xoplaki, M. Grosjean, H. Wanner, H. Paeth, and N. Steiner

Short summary
We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.