Articles | Volume 13, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Jun 2017
Research article |
| 08 Jun 2017
Pseudo-proxy tests of the analogue method to reconstruct spatially resolved global temperature during the Common Era
Juan José Gómez-Navarro
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Department of Physics, University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain
Eduardo Zorita
Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany
Christoph C. Raible
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Raphael Neukom
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Enrique Pravia-Sarabia, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, and Juan Pedro Montávez
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Patricio Velasquez, Jed O. Kaplan, Martina Messmer, Patrick Ludwig, and Christoph C. Raible
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Martina Messmer, Santos J. González-Rojí, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
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Enrique Pravia-Sarabia, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, and Juan Pedro Montávez
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Emmanuele Russo, Silje Lund Sørland, Ingo Kirchner, Martijn Schaap, Christoph C. Raible, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5779–5797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, 2020
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Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5007–5027, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, 2020
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This work presents a new bias-correction method for precipitation that considers orographic characteristics, which can be used in studies where the latter strongly changes. The three-step correction method consists of a separation into orographic features, correction of low-intensity precipitation, and application of empirical quantile mapping. Seasonal bias induced by the global climate model is fully corrected. Rigorous cross-validations illustrate the method's applicability and robustness.
Christoph Dätwyler, Martin Grosjean, Nathan J. Steiger, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 16, 743–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-743-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-743-2020, 2020
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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are two important modes of climate variability, strongly influencing climate across the tropics and Southern Hemisphere mid- to high latitudes. This study sheds light on their relationship over the past millennium, combining evidence from palaeoclimate proxy archives and climate models. We show that their indices were mostly negatively correlated with fluctuations likely driven by internal variability in the climate system.
Thomas L. Frölicher, Luca Ramseyer, Christoph C. Raible, Keith B. Rodgers, and John Dunne
Biogeosciences, 17, 2061–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, 2020
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Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global scales marine ecosystem drivers such as temperature, pH, O2 and NPP are potentially predictable 3 (at the surface) and more than 10 years (subsurface) in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Our study suggests that physical–biogeochemical forecast systems have considerable potential for use in marine resource management.
Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 16, 341–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, 2020
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One can use the similarity between sparse indirect observations of past climates and full fields of simulated climates to learn more about past climates. Here, we detail how one can compute uncertainty estimates for such reconstructions of past climates. This highlights the ambiguity of the reconstruction. We further show that such a reconstruction for European summer temperature agrees well with a more common approach.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Kay-Christian Emeis, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Arne Biastoch, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 847–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-847-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-847-2019, 2019
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Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-50, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Oliver Bothe, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1129–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1129-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1129-2019, 2019
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Reconstructions try to extract a climate signal from paleo-observations. It is essential to understand their uncertainties. Similarly, comparing climate simulations and paleo-observations requires approaches to address their uncertainties. We describe a simple but flexible noise model for climate proxies for temperature on millennial timescales, which can assist these goals.
Salvador Gil-Guirado, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, and Juan Pedro Montávez
Clim. Past, 15, 1303–1325, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1303-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1303-2019, 2019
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The historical climatology has remarkable research potentialities. However, historical climatology has some methodological limitations. This study presents a new methodology (COST) that allows us to perform climate reconstructions with monthly resolution. The variability of the climatic series obtained are coherent with previous studies. The new proposed method is objective and is not affected by social changes, which allows us to perform studies in regions with different languages and cultures.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, Eduardo Zorita, and Fernando Jaume-Santero
Clim. Past, 15, 1099–1111, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019, 2019
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A database of North American long-term ground surface temperatures, from approximately 1300 CE to 1700 CE, was assembled from geothermal data. These temperatures are useful for studying the future stability of permafrost, as well as for evaluating simulations of preindustrial climate that may help to improve estimates of climate models’ equilibrium climate sensitivity. The database will be made available to the climate science community.
François Klein, Nerilie J. Abram, Mark A. J. Curran, Hugues Goosse, Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Andrew Moy, Raphael Neukom, Anaïs Orsi, Jesper Sjolte, Nathan Steiger, Barbara Stenni, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019
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Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
Chris S. M. Turney, Helen V. McGregor, Pierre Francus, Nerilie Abram, Michael N. Evans, Hugues Goosse, Lucien von Gunten, Darrell Kaufman, Hans Linderholm, Marie-France Loutre, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 15, 611–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, 2019
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This PAGES (Past Global Changes) 2k (climate of the past 2000 years working group) special issue of Climate of the Past brings together the latest understanding of regional change and impacts from PAGES 2k groups across a range of proxies and regions. The special issue has emerged from a need to determine the magnitude and rate of change of regional and global climate beyond the timescales accessible within the observational record.
Oliver Bothe, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 15, 307–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019, 2019
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Our understanding of future climate changes increases if different sources of information agree on past climate variations. Changing climates particularly impact local scales for which future changes in precipitation are highly uncertain. Here, we use information from observations, model simulations, and climate reconstructions for regional precipitation over the British Isles. We find these do not agree well on precipitation variations over the past few centuries.
Christoph C. Raible, Martina Messmer, Flavio Lehner, Thomas F. Stocker, and Richard Blender
Clim. Past, 14, 1499–1514, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1499-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1499-2018, 2018
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Extratropical cyclones in winter and their characteristics are investigated in depth for the Atlantic European region from 850 to 2100 CE. During the Common Era, cyclone characteristics show pronounced variations mainly caused by internal variability of the coupled climate system. When anthropogenic forcing becomes dominant, a strong increase of extreme cyclone-related precipitation is found due to thermodynamics, though dynamical processes can play an important role during the last millennium.
Stefan Brönnimann, Jan Rajczak, Erich M. Fischer, Christoph C. Raible, Marco Rohrer, and Christoph Schär
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2047–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, 2018
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Heavy precipitation events in Switzerland are expected to become more intense, but the seasonality also changes. Analysing a large set of model simulations, we find that annual maximum rainfall events become less frequent in late summer and more frequent in early summer and early autumn. The seasonality shift is arguably related to summer drying. Results suggest that changes in the seasonal cycle need to be accounted for when preparing for moderately extreme precipitation events.
Xing Yi, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-63, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In this study, we analyse the outputs of Earth System Models to investigate the Arabian Sea upwelling for the last 1000 years and in the 21st century. Due to the orbital forcing of the models, the upwelling in the past is found to reveal a negative long-term trend, which matches the observed sediment records. In the future under the RCP8.5 scenario, the warming of the sea water tends to stabilize the surface layer and thus interrupts the upwelling.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Christoph C. Raible, Denica Bozhinova, Olivia Martius, Juan Andrés García Valero, and Juan Pedro Montávez
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2231–2247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, 2018
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We carry out and compare two high-resolution simulations of the Alpine region in the period 1979–2005. We aim to improve the understanding of the local mechanisms leading to extreme events in this complex region. We compare both simulations to precipitation observations to assess the model performance, and attribute major biases to either model or boundary conditions. Further, we develop a new bias correction technique to remove systematic errors in simulated precipitation for impact studies.
Sitar Karabil, Eduardo Zorita, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 69–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-69-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-69-2018, 2018
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We analysed the contribution of atmospheric factors to interannual off-shore sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea region. We identified a different atmospheric circulation pattern that is more closely linked to sea-level variability than the NAO. The inverse barometer effect contributes to that link in the winter and summer seasons. Freshwater flux is connected to the link in summer and net heat flux in winter.The new atmospheric-pattern-related wind forcing plays an important role in summer.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
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Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
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Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Sitar Karabil, Eduardo Zorita, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1031–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1031-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1031-2017, 2017
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We statistically analysed the mechanisms of the variability in decadal sea-level trends for the whole Baltic Sea basin over the last century. We used two different sea-level data sets and several climatic data sets. The results of this study showed that precipitation has a lagged effect on decadal sea-level trend variations from which the signature of atmospheric effect is removed. This detected underlying factor is not connected to oceanic forcing driven from the North Atlantic region.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Maria Pyrina, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 13, 1339–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1339-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1339-2017, 2017
Svenja E. Bierstedt, Birgit Hünicke, Eduardo Zorita, and Juliane Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 639–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-639-2017, 2017
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We statistically analyse the relationship between the structure of migrating dunes in the southern Baltic and the driving wind conditions over the past 26 years, with the long-term aim of using migrating dunes as a proxy for past wind conditions at an interannual resolution.
Martina Messmer, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 477–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-477-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-477-2017, 2017
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Low-pressure systems of type Vb may trigger heavy rainfall events over central Europe. This study aims at analysing the relative role of their moisture sources. For this, a set of sensitivity experiments encompassing changes in soil moisture and Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea SSTs are carried out with WRF. The latter moisture source stands out as the most relevant one. Furthermore, the regions most affected by Vb events in the future might be shifted from the Alps to the Balkan Peninsula.
Stefan Brönnimann, Abdul Malik, Alexander Stickler, Martin Wegmann, Christoph C. Raible, Stefan Muthers, Julien Anet, Eugene Rozanov, and Werner Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15529–15543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, 2016
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The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is a wind oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere. Effects on climate have been found, which is relevant for seasonal forecasts. However, up to now only relatively short records were available, and even within these the climate imprints were intermittent. Here we analyze a 108-year long reconstruction as well as four 405-year long simulations. We confirm most of the claimed QBO effects on climate, but they are small, which explains apparently variable effects.
Xing Yi and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-124, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-124, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In this paper we study the upwelling in the Arabian Sea simulated in two Earth System Models for the last millennium and for the 21st century. Revealing a negative long-term trend due to the model orbital forcing, the upwelling over the last millennium is strongly correlated with the SST, the Indian summer Monsoon and the G.bulloides abundance observed in the sediment records. In the future scenarios the warming of the sea water tends to stabilize the surface layer and hinder the upwelling.
Chantal Camenisch, Kathrin M. Keller, Melanie Salvisberg, Benjamin Amann, Martin Bauch, Sandro Blumer, Rudolf Brázdil, Stefan Brönnimann, Ulf Büntgen, Bruce M. S. Campbell, Laura Fernández-Donado, Dominik Fleitmann, Rüdiger Glaser, Fidel González-Rouco, Martin Grosjean, Richard C. Hoffmann, Heli Huhtamaa, Fortunat Joos, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Flavio Lehner, Jürg Luterbacher, Nicolas Maughan, Raphael Neukom, Theresa Novy, Kathleen Pribyl, Christoph C. Raible, Dirk Riemann, Maximilian Schuh, Philip Slavin, Johannes P. Werner, and Oliver Wetter
Clim. Past, 12, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, 2016
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Throughout the last millennium, several cold periods occurred which affected humanity. Here, we investigate an exceptionally cold decade during the 15th century. The cold conditions challenged the food production and led to increasing food prices and a famine in parts of Europe. In contrast to periods such as the “Year Without Summer” after the eruption of Tambora, these extreme climatic conditions seem to have occurred by chance and in relation to the internal variability of the climate system.
Stefan Muthers, Christoph C. Raible, Eugene Rozanov, and Thomas F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 877–892, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, 2016
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important oceanic circulation system which transports large amounts of heat from the tropics to the north. This circulation is strengthened when less solar irradiance reaches the Earth, e.g. due to reduced solar activity or geoengineering techniques. In climate models, however, this response is overestimated when chemistry–climate interactions and the following shift in the atmospheric circulation systems are not considered.
Niklaus Merz, Andreas Born, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 12, 2011–2031, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2011-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2011-2016, 2016
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The last (Eemian) interglacial is studied with a global climate model focusing on Greenland and the adjacent high latitudes. A set of model experiments demonstrates the crucial role of changes in sea ice and sea surface temperatures for the magnitude of Eemian atmospheric warming. Greenland temperatures are found highly sensitive to sea ice changes in the Nordic Seas but rather insensitive to changes in the Labrador Sea. This behavior has important implications for Greenland ice core signals.
Amaelle Landais, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Emilie Capron, Petra M. Langebroek, Pepijn Bakker, Emma J. Stone, Niklaus Merz, Christoph C. Raible, Hubertus Fischer, Anaïs Orsi, Frédéric Prié, Bo Vinther, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
Clim. Past, 12, 1933–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, 2016
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The last lnterglacial (LIG; 116 000 to 129 000 years before present) surface temperature at the upstream Greenland NEEM deposition site is estimated to be warmer by +7 to +11 °C compared to the preindustrial period. We show that under such warm temperatures, melting of snow probably led to a significant surface melting. There is a paradox between the extent of the Greenland ice sheet during the LIG and the strong warming during this period that models cannot solve.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Birgit Hünicke, Xing Yi, and Kay-Christian Emeis
Ocean Sci., 12, 807–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-807-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-807-2016, 2016
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The impact of external climate forcing on the four eastern boundary upwelling systems is investigated for the recent past and future. Under increased radiative forcing, upwelling-favourable winds should strengthen due to unequal heating of land and oceans. However, coastal upwelling simulated in ensembles of climate simulations do not show any imprint of external forcing neither for the past millennium nor for the future, with the exception of the strongest future scenario.
Svenja E. Bierstedt, Birgit Hünicke, Eduardo Zorita, Sebastian Wagner, and Juan José Gómez-Navarro
Clim. Past, 12, 317–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-317-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-317-2016, 2016
X. Yi, B. Hünicke, N. Tim, and E. Zorita
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-12-2683-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-12-2683-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In this paper, we use the vertical water mass transport data provided by a high-resolution global ocean simulation to study the western Arabian Sea coastal upwelling system. Our results show that: 1). no significant long-term trend is detected in the upwelling time series. 2). the impact of Indian summer monsoon on the simulated upwelling is weak. 3). the upwelling is strongly affected by the sea level pressure gradient and the air temperature gradient.
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, C. C. Raible, and S. Dierer
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3349–3363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3349-2015, 2015
S. Muthers, F. Arfeuille, C. C. Raible, and E. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11461–11476, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11461-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11461-2015, 2015
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After volcanic eruptions different radiative and chemical processes take place in the stratosphere which perturb the ozone layer and cause pronounced dynamical changes. In idealized chemistry-climate model simulations the importance of these processes and the modulating role of the climate state is analysed. The chemical effect strongly differs between a preindustrial and present-day climate, but the effect on the dynamics is weak. Radiative processes dominate the dynamics in all climate states.
J. A. García-Valero, J. P. Montávez, J. J. Gómez-Navarro, and P. Jiménez-Guerrero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2143–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2143-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2143-2015, 2015
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This paper presents a study of extremely hot days (EHDs) in Spain and their connection with atmospheric dynamics. In addition, this work proposes a method that allows the detection of trends in the frequency of extreme events and their attribution to changes in atmospheric dynamics characterized through circulation types (CTs). The main CT-driven EHDs are identified. The increase in the EHD appearance is linked to the increase of the extreme CTs; however this only partially explains the trends.
M. Messmer, J. J. Gómez-Navarro, and C. C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-541-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-541-2015, 2015
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, O. Bothe, S. Wagner, E. Zorita, J. P. Werner, J. Luterbacher, C. C. Raible, and J. P Montávez
Clim. Past, 11, 1077–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, 2015
F. Lehner, F. Joos, C. C. Raible, J. Mignot, A. Born, K. M. Keller, and T. F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 411–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, 2015
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We present the first last-millennium simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) including an interactive carbon cycle in both ocean and land component. Volcanic eruptions emerge as the strongest forcing factor for the preindustrial climate and carbon cycle. We estimate the climate-carbon-cycle feedback in CESM to be at the lower bounds of empirical estimates (1.3ppm/°C). The time of emergence for interannual global land and ocean carbon uptake rates are 1947 and 1877, respectively.
N. Tim, E. Zorita, and B. Hünicke
Ocean Sci., 11, 483–502, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-483-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-483-2015, 2015
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The atmospheric drivers of the Benguela upwelling systems and its variability are statistically analysed with an ocean-only simulation over the last decades. Atmospheric upwelling-favourable conditions are southerly wind/wind stress, a strong subtropical anticyclone, and an ocean-land sea level pressure gradient as well as a negative ENSO and a positive AAO phase. No long-term trends of upwelling and of ocean-minus-land air pressure gradients, as supposed by Bakun, can be seen in our analysis.
D. Zanchettin, O. Bothe, F. Lehner, P. Ortega, C. C. Raible, and D. Swingedouw
Clim. Past, 11, 939–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-939-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-939-2015, 2015
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A discrepancy exists between reconstructed and simulated Pacific North American pattern (PNA) features during the early 19th century. Pseudo-reconstructions demonstrate that the available PNA reconstruction is potentially skillful but also potentially affected by a number of sources of uncertainty and deficiencies especially at multidecadal and centennial timescales. Simulations and reconstructions can be reconciled by attributing the reconstructed PNA features to internal variability.
J. A. Santos, M. F. Carneiro, A. Correia, M. J. Alcoforado, E. Zorita, and J. J. Gómez-Navarro
Clim. Past, 11, 825–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, 2015
S. Muthers, J. G. Anet, A. Stenke, C. C. Raible, E. Rozanov, S. Brönnimann, T. Peter, F. X. Arfeuille, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2157–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, 2014
K. M. Keller, F. Joos, and C. C. Raible
Biogeosciences, 11, 3647–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, 2014
N. Merz, A. Born, C. C. Raible, H. Fischer, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 10, 1221–1238, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1221-2014, 2014
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. V. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, W. Schmutz, and T. Peter
Clim. Past, 10, 921–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014
C. C. Raible, F. Lehner, J. F. González-Rouco, and L. Fernández-Donado
Clim. Past, 10, 537–550, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-537-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-537-2014, 2014
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, T. Peter, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10951–10967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, 2013
N. Merz, C. C. Raible, H. Fischer, V. Varma, M. Prange, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 9, 2433–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, 2013
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1667–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, 2013
G. Esnaola, J. Sáenz, E. Zorita, A. Fontán, V. Valencia, and P. Lazure
Ocean Sci., 9, 655–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-655-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-655-2013, 2013
O. Bothe, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Zanchettin, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1089–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Holocene
Holocene climate and oceanography of the coastal Western United States and California Current System
Reconstructing Holocene temperatures in time and space using paleoclimate data assimilation
Long-term trends in diatom diversity and palaeoproductivity: a 16 000-year multidecadal record from Lake Baikal, southern Siberia
Holocene climates of the Iberian Peninsula: pollen-based reconstructions of changes in the west-east gradient of temperature and moisture
A 406-year non-growing-season precipitation reconstruction in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Climatic variations during the Holocene inferred from radiocarbon and stable carbon isotopes in speleothems from a high-alpine cave
Winter–spring warming in the North Atlantic during the last 2000 years: evidence from southwest Iceland
Climate reconstructions based on GDGT and pollen surface datasets from Mongolia and Baikal area: calibrations and applicability to extremely cold–dry environments over the Late Holocene
Sampling density and date along with species selection influence spatial representation of tree-ring reconstructions
Changes in high-intensity precipitation on the northern Apennines (Italy) as revealed by multidisciplinary data over the last 9000 years
Neoglacial trends in diatom dynamics from a small alpine lake in the Qinling mountains of central China
Centennial- to millennial-scale monsoon changes since the last deglaciation linked to solar activities and North Atlantic cooling
Algal lipids reveal unprecedented warming rates in alpine areas of SW Europe during the industrial period
Reconstructing seasonality through stable-isotope and trace-element analyses of the Proserpine stalagmite, Han-sur-Lesse cave, Belgium: indications for climate-driven changes during the last 400 years
Two millennia of Main region (southern Germany) hydroclimate variability
Combining a pollen and macrofossil synthesis with climate simulations for spatial reconstructions of European climate using Bayesian filtering
Lignin oxidation products as a potential proxy for vegetation and environmental changes in speleothems and cave drip water – a first record from the Herbstlabyrinth, central Germany
How dry was the Younger Dryas? Evidence from a coupled δ2H–δ18O biomarker paleohygrometer applied to the Gemündener Maar sediments, Western Eifel, Germany
Siberian tree-ring and stable isotope proxies as indicators of temperature and moisture changes after major stratospheric volcanic eruptions
The 4.2 ka BP Event in the Mediterranean region: an overview
Technical note: Optimizing the utility of combined GPR, OSL, and Lidar (GOaL) to extract paleoenvironmental records and decipher shoreline evolution
The onset of neoglaciation in Iceland and the 4.2 ka event
Hydroclimatic variations in southeastern China during the 4.2 ka event reflected by stalagmite records
Fire, vegetation, and Holocene climate in a southeastern Tibetan lake: a multi-biomarker reconstruction from Paru Co
Climate impact on the development of Pre-Classic Maya civilisation
Synchronizing 10Be in two varved lake sediment records to IntCal13 14C during three grand solar minima
Technical note: Open-paleo-data implementation pilot – the PAGES 2k special issue
A chironomid-based record of temperature variability during the past 4000 years in northern China and its possible societal implications
Insights into Atlantic multidecadal variability using the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework
Three distinct Holocene intervals of stalagmite deposition and nondeposition revealed in NW Madagascar, and their paleoclimate implications
Examining bias in pollen-based quantitative climate reconstructions induced by human impact on vegetation in China
A dual-biomarker approach for quantification of changes in relative humidity from sedimentary lipid D∕H ratios
Development and evaluation of a system of proxy data assimilation for paleoclimate reconstruction
A chironomid-based mean July temperature inference model from the south-east margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China
Assessing performance and seasonal bias of pollen-based climate reconstructions in a perfect model world
Quantitative reconstruction of summer precipitation using a mid-Holocene δ13C common millet record from Guanzhong Basin, northern China
North Atlantic Oscillation controls on oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients in winter precipitation across Europe; implications for palaeoclimate studies
A 368-year maximum temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring data in the northwestern Sichuan Plateau (NWSP), China
Inferring late-Holocene climate in the Ecuadorian Andes using a chironomid-based temperature inference model
A high-altitude peatland record of environmental changes in the NW Argentine Andes (24 ° S) over the last 2100 years
Technical note: The Linked Paleo Data framework – a common tongue for paleoclimatology
A Bayesian hierarchical model for reconstructing relative sea level: from raw data to rates of change
Inferring climate variability from nonlinear proxies: application to palaeo-ENSO studies
Technical Note: How accurate can stalagmite formation temperatures be determined using vapour bubble radius measurements in fluid inclusions?
High-resolution leaf wax carbon and hydrogen isotopic record of the late Holocene paleoclimate in arid Central Asia
Arctic Holocene proxy climate database – new approaches to assessing geochronological accuracy and encoding climate variables
Testing long-term summer temperature reconstruction based on maximum density chronologies obtained by reanalysis of tree-ring data sets from northernmost Sweden and Finland
Constraining Holocene hydrological changes in the Carpathian–Balkan region using speleothem δ18O and pollen-based temperature reconstructions
Sediment transport processes across the Tibetan Plateau inferred from robust grain-size end members in lake sediments
Similarity estimators for irregular and age-uncertain time series
Hannah M. Palmer, Veronica Padilla Vriesman, Caitlin M. Livsey, Carina R. Fish, and Tessa M. Hill
Clim. Past, 19, 199–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-199-2023, 2023
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To better understand and contextualize modern climate change, this systematic review synthesizes climate and oceanographic patterns in the Western United States and California Current System through the most recent 11.75 kyr. Through a literature review and coded analysis of past studies, we identify distinct environmental phases through time and linkages between marine and terrestrial systems. We explore climate change impacts on ecosystems and human–environment interactions.
Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Nathan Steiger, Sylvia Dee, Chris Hancock, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 18, 2599–2629, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, 2022
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To look at climate over the past 12 000 years, we reconstruct spatial temperature using natural climate archives and information from model simulations. Our results show mild global mean warmth around 6000 years ago, which differs somewhat from past reconstructions. Undiagnosed seasonal biases in the data could explain some of the observed temperature change, but this still would not explain the large difference between many reconstructions and climate models over this period.
Anson W. Mackay, Vivian A. Felde, David W. Morley, Natalia Piotrowska, Patrick Rioual, Alistair W. R. Seddon, and George E. A. Swann
Clim. Past, 18, 363–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-363-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-363-2022, 2022
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We investigated the diversity of algae called diatoms in Lake Baikal, the oldest and deepest lake in the world, because algae sit at the base of aquatic foodwebs and provide energy (in the form of primary production) for other organisms to use. Diatom diversity and primary production have been influenced by both long-term and abrupt climate change over the past 16 000 years. The shape of these responses appears to be time-period specific.
Mengmeng Liu, Yicheng Shen, Penelope González-Sampériz, Graciela Gil-Romera, Cajo J. F. ter Braak, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-174, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-174, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
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We reconstructed the Holocene climates in Iberian Peninsula using a large pollen dataset and found that the west-east moisture gradient was much flatter than today. We also found that the winter was much colder, which can be expected from the low winter insolation during the Holocene. However, summer temperature didn’t follow the trend of summer insolation, instead, it was strongly correlated with moisture.
Maierdang Keyimu, Zongshan Li, Bojie Fu, Guohua Liu, Fanjiang Zeng, Weiliang Chen, Zexin Fan, Keyan Fang, Xiuchen Wu, and Xiaochun Wang
Clim. Past, 17, 2381–2392, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2381-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2381-2021, 2021
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We created a residual tree-ring width chronology and reconstructed non-growth-season precipitation (NGSP) over the period spanning 1600–2005 in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP), China. Reconstruction model verification as well as similar variations of NGSP reconstruction and Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstructions from the surrounding region indicate the reliability of the present reconstruction. Our reconstruction is representative of NGSP variability of a large region in the SETP.
Caroline Welte, Jens Fohlmeister, Melina Wertnik, Lukas Wacker, Bodo Hattendorf, Timothy I. Eglinton, and Christoph Spötl
Clim. Past, 17, 2165–2177, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2165-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2165-2021, 2021
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Stalagmites are valuable climate archives, but unlike other proxies the use of stable carbon isotopes (δ13C) is still difficult. A stalagmite from the Austrian Alps was analyzed using a new laser ablation method for fast radiocarbon (14C) analysis. This allowed 14C and δ13C to be combined, showing that besides soil and bedrock a third source is contributing during periods of warm, wet climate: old organic matter.
Nora Richter, James M. Russell, Johanna Garfinkel, and Yongsong Huang
Clim. Past, 17, 1363–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1363-2021, 2021
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We present a reconstruction of winter–spring temperatures developed using organic proxies preserved in well-dated lake sediments from southwest Iceland to assess seasonal temperature changes in the North Atlantic region over the last 2000 years. The gradual warming trend observed in our record is likely influenced by sea surface temperatures, which are sensitive to changes in ocean circulation and seasonal insolation, during the winter and spring season.
Lucas Dugerdil, Sébastien Joannin, Odile Peyron, Isabelle Jouffroy-Bapicot, Boris Vannière, Bazartseren Boldgiv, Julia Unkelbach, Hermann Behling, and Guillemette Ménot
Clim. Past, 17, 1199–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1199-2021, 2021
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Since the understanding of Holocene climate change appears to be a relevant issue for future climate change, the paleoclimate calibrations have to be improved. Here, surface samples from Mongolia and Siberia were analyzed to provide new calibrations for pollen and biomarker climate models. These calibrations appear to be more powerful than global calibrations, especially in an arid central Asian context. These calibrations will improve the understanding of monsoon Holocene oscillations.
Justin T. Maxwell, Grant L. Harley, Trevis J. Matheus, Brandon M. Strange, Kayla Van Aken, Tsun Fung Au, and Joshua C. Bregy
Clim. Past, 16, 1901–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1901-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1901-2020, 2020
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We found that increasing the density of chronologies in the tree-ring network resulted in estimated soil moisture conditions that better matched the spatial variability of the values that were instrumentally recorded for droughts and, to a lesser extent, pluvials. By sampling trees in 2010 compared to 1980, the sensitivity of tree rings to soil moisture decreased in the southern portion of our region, where severe drought conditions have been absent over recent decades.
Stefano Segadelli, Federico Grazzini, Veronica Rossi, Margherita Aguzzi, Silvia Marvelli, Marco Marchesini, Alessandro Chelli, Roberto Francese, Maria Teresa De Nardo, and Sandro Nanni
Clim. Past, 16, 1547–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1547-2020, 2020
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In an attempt to consolidate trends in the hydrological cycle induced by recent warming, we conducted a multidisciplinary study combining meteorological data, climate proxies from the literature, and original coring and pollen data acquired in an area that has been hit by record-breaking precipitation events. A detailed study of recent flash-flood deposits compared with fossil peat bog and lake sediments supports the expected increase in precipitation intensity during warm climatic phases.
Bo Cheng, Jennifer Adams, Jianhui Chen, Aifeng Zhou, Qing Zhang, and Anson W. Mackay
Clim. Past, 16, 543–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-543-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-543-2020, 2020
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The Qinling mountains in China are biodiversity rich. We studied one of the high-latitude lakes on Mount Taibai with a view to looking at how aquatic diversity responded to long-term changes in climate over the past 3500 years. We specifically looked at a group of single-celled algae called diatoms, as they are very sensitive to the environment. We found that these algae changed gradually over time, but they showed abrupt change during the period known as the Little Ice Age, about 400 years ago.
Xingxing Liu, Youbin Sun, Jef Vandenberghe, Peng Cheng, Xu Zhang, Evan J. Gowan, Gerrit Lohmann, and Zhisheng An
Clim. Past, 16, 315–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-315-2020, 2020
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The East Asian summer monsoon and winter monsoon are anticorrelated on a centennial timescale during 16–1 ka. The centennial monsoon variability is connected to changes of both solar activity and North Atlantic cooling events during the Early Holocene. Then, North Atlantic cooling became the major forcing of events during the Late Holocene. This work presents the great challenge and potential to understand the response of the monsoon system to global climate changes in the past and the future.
Antonio García-Alix, Jaime L. Toney, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Carmen Pérez-Martínez, Laura Jiménez, Marta Rodrigo-Gámiz, R. Scott Anderson, Jon Camuera, Francisco J. Jiménez-Espejo, Dhais Peña-Angulo, and María J. Ramos-Román
Clim. Past, 16, 245–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-245-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-245-2020, 2020
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In this paper we identify warming thresholds, rates, and forcing mechanisms from a novel alpine temperature record of the southern Iberian Peninsula during the Common Era in order to contextualize the modern warming and its potential impact on these vulnerable alpine ecosystems. To do so, we have developed and applied the first lacustrine temperature calibration in alpine lakes for algal compounds, called long-chain alkyl diols, which is a significant advance in biomarker paleothermometry.
Stef Vansteenberge, Niels J. de Winter, Matthias Sinnesael, Sophie Verheyden, Steven Goderis, Stijn J. M. Van Malderen, Frank Vanhaecke, and Philippe Claeys
Clim. Past, 16, 141–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-141-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-141-2020, 2020
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We measured the chemical composition (trace-element concentrations and stable-isotope ratios) of a Belgian speleothem that deposited annual layers. Our sub-annual resolution dataset allows us to investigate how the chemistry of this speleothem recorded changes in the environment and climate in northwestern Europe. We then use this information to reconstruct climate change during the 16th and 17th century on the seasonal scale and demonstrate that environmental change drives speleothem chemistry.
Alexander Land, Sabine Remmele, Jutta Hofmann, Daniel Reichle, Margaret Eppli, Christian Zang, Allan Buras, Sebastian Hein, and Reiner Zimmermann
Clim. Past, 15, 1677–1690, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1677-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1677-2019, 2019
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With the use of precipitation sensitive oak ring-width series from the Main River region (southern Germany) a 2000-year long hydroclimate reconstruction has been developed. The ring series are sensitive to the sum of rainfall from 26 February to 6 July. This region suffered from severe, long-lasting droughts in the past two millennia (e.g., AD 500/510s, 940s, 1170s, 1390s and 1160s). In the AD 550s, 1050s, 1310s and 1480s, multi-year periods with high rainfall hit the region.
Nils Weitzel, Andreas Hense, and Christian Ohlwein
Clim. Past, 15, 1275–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1275-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1275-2019, 2019
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A new method for probabilistic spatial reconstructions of past climate states is presented, which combines pollen data with a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations in a Bayesian framework. The approach is applied to reconstruct summer and winter temperature in Europe during the mid-Holocene. Our reconstructions account for multiple sources of uncertainty and are well suited for quantitative statistical analyses of the climate under different forcing conditions.
Inken Heidke, Denis Scholz, and Thorsten Hoffmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1025–1037, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1025-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1025-2019, 2019
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This is the first quantitative study of lignin biomarkers in stalagmites and cave drip water. Lignin is only produced by higher plants; therefore, its analysis can be used to reconstruct the vegetation of the past. We compared our lignin results with stable isotope and trace element records from the same samples and found correlations or similarities with P, Ba, U and Mg concentrations as well as δ13C values. These results can help to better interpret other vegetation proxies.
Johannes Hepp, Lorenz Wüthrich, Tobias Bromm, Marcel Bliedtner, Imke Kathrin Schäfer, Bruno Glaser, Kazimierz Rozanski, Frank Sirocko, Roland Zech, and Michael Zech
Clim. Past, 15, 713–733, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-713-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-713-2019, 2019
Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Marina V. Fonti, Matthias Saurer, Sébastien Guillet, Christophe Corona, Patrick Fonti, Vladimir S. Myglan, Alexander V. Kirdyanov, Oksana V. Naumova, Dmitriy V. Ovchinnikov, Alexander V. Shashkin, Irina P. Panyushkina, Ulf Büntgen, Malcolm K. Hughes, Eugene A. Vaganov, Rolf T. W. Siegwolf, and Markus Stoffel
Clim. Past, 15, 685–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-685-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-685-2019, 2019
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We present a unique dataset of multiple tree-ring and stable isotope parameters, representing temperature-sensitive Siberian ecotones, to assess climatic impacts after six large stratospheric volcanic eruptions at 535, 540, 1257, 1640, 1815, and 1991 CE. Besides the well-documented effects of temperature derived from tree-ring width and latewood density, stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in tree-ring cellulose provide information about moisture and sunshine duration changes after the events.
Monica Bini, Giovanni Zanchetta, Aurel Perşoiu, Rosine Cartier, Albert Català, Isabel Cacho, Jonathan R. Dean, Federico Di Rita, Russell N. Drysdale, Martin Finnè, Ilaria Isola, Bassem Jalali, Fabrizio Lirer, Donatella Magri, Alessia Masi, Leszek Marks, Anna Maria Mercuri, Odile Peyron, Laura Sadori, Marie-Alexandrine Sicre, Fabian Welc, Christoph Zielhofer, and Elodie Brisset
Clim. Past, 15, 555–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-555-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-555-2019, 2019
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The Mediterranean region has returned some of the clearest evidence of a climatically dry period occurring approximately 4200 years ago. We reviewed selected proxies to infer regional climate patterns between 4.3 and 3.8 ka. Temperature data suggest a cooling anomaly, even if this is not uniform, whereas winter was drier, along with dry summers. However, some exceptions to this prevail, where wetter condition seems to have persisted, suggesting regional heterogeneity.
Amy J. Dougherty, Jeong-Heon Choi, Chris S. M. Turney, and Anthony Dosseto
Clim. Past, 15, 389–404, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-389-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-389-2019, 2019
Áslaug Geirsdóttir, Gifford H. Miller, John T. Andrews, David J. Harning, Leif S. Anderson, Christopher Florian, Darren J. Larsen, and Thor Thordarson
Clim. Past, 15, 25–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-25-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-25-2019, 2019
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Compositing climate proxies in sediment from seven Iceland lakes documents abrupt summer cooling between 4.5 and 4.0 ka, statistically indistinguishable from 4.2 ka. Although the decline in summer insolation was an important factor, a combination of superposed changes in ocean circulation and explosive Icelandic volcanism were likely responsible for the abrupt perturbation recorded by our proxies. Lake and catchment proxies recovered to a colder equilibrium state following the perturbation.
Haiwei Zhang, Hai Cheng, Yanjun Cai, Christoph Spötl, Gayatri Kathayat, Ashish Sinha, R. Lawrence Edwards, and Liangcheng Tan
Clim. Past, 14, 1805–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1805-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1805-2018, 2018
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The collapses of several Neolithic cultures in China are considered to have been associated with abrupt climate change during the 4.2 ka BP event; however, the hydroclimate of this event in China is still poorly known. Based on stalagmite records from monsoonal China, we found that north China was dry but south China was wet during this event. We propose that the rain belt remained longer at its southern position, giving rise to a pronounced humidity gradient between north and south China.
Alice Callegaro, Dario Battistel, Natalie M. Kehrwald, Felipe Matsubara Pereira, Torben Kirchgeorg, Maria del Carmen Villoslada Hidalgo, Broxton W. Bird, and Carlo Barbante
Clim. Past, 14, 1543–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1543-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1543-2018, 2018
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Holocene fires and vegetation are reconstructed using different molecular markers with a single analytical method, applied for the first time to lake sediments from Tibet. The early Holocene shows oscillations between grasses and conifers, with smouldering fires represented by levoglucosan peaks, and high-temperature fires represented by PAHs. The lack of human FeSts excludes local human influence on fire and vegetation changes. Late Holocene displays an increase in local to regional combustion.
Kees Nooren, Wim Z. Hoek, Brian J. Dermody, Didier Galop, Sarah Metcalfe, Gerald Islebe, and Hans Middelkoop
Clim. Past, 14, 1253–1273, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1253-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1253-2018, 2018
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We present two new palaeoclimatic records for the central Maya lowlands, adding valuable new insights to the impact of climate change on the development of Maya civilisation. Lake Tuspan's diatom record is indicative of precipitation changes at a local scale, while a beach ridge elevation record from the world's largest late Holocene beach ridge plain provides a regional picture.
Markus Czymzik, Raimund Muscheler, Florian Adolphi, Florian Mekhaldi, Nadine Dräger, Florian Ott, Michał Słowinski, Mirosław Błaszkiewicz, Ala Aldahan, Göran Possnert, and Achim Brauer
Clim. Past, 14, 687–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-687-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-687-2018, 2018
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Our results provide a proof of concept for facilitating 10Be in varved lake sediments as a novel synchronization tool required for investigating leads and lags of proxy responses to climate variability. They also point to some limitations of 10Be in these archives mainly connected to in-lake sediment resuspension processes.
Darrell S. Kaufman and PAGES 2k special-issue editorial team
Clim. Past, 14, 593–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-593-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-593-2018, 2018
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We explain the procedure used to attain a high and consistent level of data stewardship across a special issue of the journal Climate of the Past. We discuss the challenges related to (1) determining which data are essential for public archival, (2) using data generated by others, and (3) understanding data citations. We anticipate that open-data sharing in paleo sciences will accelerate as the advantages become more evident and as practices that reduce data loss become the accepted convention.
Haipeng Wang, Jianhui Chen, Shengda Zhang, David D. Zhang, Zongli Wang, Qinghai Xu, Shengqian Chen, Shijin Wang, Shichang Kang, and Fahu Chen
Clim. Past, 14, 383–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-383-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-383-2018, 2018
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The chironomid-inferred temperature record from Gonghai Lake exhibits a stepwise decreasing trend since 4 ka. A cold event in the Era of Disunity, the Sui-Tang Warm Period, the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age can all be recognized in our record, as well as in many other temperature reconstructions in China. Local wars in Shanxi Province, documented in the historical literature during the past 2700 years, are statistically significantly correlated with changes in temperature.
Hansi K. A. Singh, Gregory J. Hakim, Robert Tardif, Julien Emile-Geay, and David C. Noone
Clim. Past, 14, 157–174, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-157-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-157-2018, 2018
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The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is prominent in the climate system. We study the AMO over the last 2000 years using a novel proxy framework, the Last Millennium Reanalysis. We find that the AMO is linked to continental warming, Arctic sea ice retreat, and an Atlantic precipitation shift. Low clouds decrease globally. We find no distinct multidecadal spectral peak in the AMO over the last 2 millennia, suggesting that human activities may have enhanced the AMO in the modern era.
Ny Riavo Gilbertinie Voarintsoa, Loren Bruce Railsback, George Albert Brook, Lixin Wang, Gayatri Kathayat, Hai Cheng, Xianglei Li, Richard Lawrence Edwards, Amos Fety Michel Rakotondrazafy, and Marie Olga Madison Razanatseheno
Clim. Past, 13, 1771–1790, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1771-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1771-2017, 2017
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This research has been an investigation of two stalagmites from two caves in NW Madagascar to reconstruct the region's paleoenvironmental changes, and to understand the linkage of such changes to the dynamics of the ITCZ. Stable isotopes, mineralogy, and petrography suggest wetter climate conditions than today during the early and late Holocene, when the mean ITCZ was south, and drier during the mid-Holocene when the ITCZ was north.
Wei Ding, Qinghai Xu, and Pavel E. Tarasov
Clim. Past, 13, 1285–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1285-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1285-2017, 2017
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Pollen-based past climate reconstruction for regions with long-term human occupation is always controversial. We examined the bias induced by the human impact on vegetation in a climate reconstruction for temperate eastern China by comparing the deviations in the reconstructed results for a fossil record based on two pollen–climate calibration sets. Climatic signals in pollen assemblages are indeed obscured by human impact; however, the extent of the bias could be assessed.
Oliver Rach, Ansgar Kahmen, Achim Brauer, and Dirk Sachse
Clim. Past, 13, 741–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-741-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-741-2017, 2017
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Currently, reconstructions of past changes in the hydrological cycle are usually qualitative, which is a major drawback for testing the accuracy of models in predicting future responses. Here we present a proof of concept of a novel approach to deriving quantitative paleohydrological data, i.e. changes in relative humidity, from lacustrine sediment archives, employing a combination of organic geochemical methods and plant physiological modeling.
Atsushi Okazaki and Kei Yoshimura
Clim. Past, 13, 379–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-379-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-379-2017, 2017
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Data assimilation has been successfully applied in the field of paleoclimatology to reconstruct past climate. However, data reconstructed from proxies have been assimilated, as opposed to the actual proxy values, which prevented full utilization of the information recorded in the proxies. This study propose a new data assimilation system in which actual proxy data are directly assimilated.
Enlou Zhang, Jie Chang, Yanmin Cao, Hongqu Tang, Pete Langdon, James Shulmeister, Rong Wang, Xiangdong Yang, and Ji Shen
Clim. Past, 13, 185–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-185-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-185-2017, 2017
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This paper reports the first development of sub-fossil chironomid-based mean July temperature transfer functions from China. The transfer functions yield reliable reconstructions that are comparable to the instrumental record. The application of this new tool will provide long-term quantitative palaeoclimate estimates from south-western China which is a critical region for understanding the dynamic and evolution of the Indian Ocean south-west Monsoon system.
Kira Rehfeld, Mathias Trachsel, Richard J. Telford, and Thomas Laepple
Clim. Past, 12, 2255–2270, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2255-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2255-2016, 2016
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Indirect evidence on past climate comes from the former composition of ecological communities such as plants, preserved as pollen grains in sediments of lakes. Transfer functions convert relative counts of species to a climatologically meaningful scale (e.g. annual mean temperature in degrees C). We show that the fundamental assumptions in the algorithms impact the reconstruction results in he idealized model world, in particular if the reconstructed variables were not ecologically relevant.
Qing Yang, Xiaoqiang Li, Xinying Zhou, Keliang Zhao, and Nan Sun
Clim. Past, 12, 2229–2240, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2229-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2229-2016, 2016
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The fossilized seeds of common millet are suited to the production of quantitative Holocene precipitation reconstructions. Our reconstructed results showed that summer precipitation from 7.7–3.4 ka BP was ~ 50 mm, or 17 % higher than present levels. Maximal mean summer precipitation peaked at 414 mm during 6.1–5.5 ka BP, ~ 109 mm, or 36 % higher than today, indicating the EASM peaked at this time. This work can provide a new proxy for further research into continuous paleoprecipitation sequences.
Michael Deininger, Martin Werner, and Frank McDermott
Clim. Past, 12, 2127–2143, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, 2016
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This study investigates the NAO (Northern Atlantic Oscillation)-related mechanisms that control winter precipitation stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients across Europe. The results show that past longitudinal stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients in European rainfall stored in palaeoclimate archives (e.g. speleothems) can be used to infer the past winter NAO modes from its variations.
Liangjun Zhu, Yuandong Zhang, Zongshan Li, Binde Guo, and Xiaochun Wang
Clim. Past, 12, 1485–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1485-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1485-2016, 2016
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We present a 368-year late summer maximum temperature reconstruction based on spruce tree rings. It touches on the critical topic of climate reconstruction in the eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau and represents an extension and enhancement of climate records for this area. The Little Ice Age was well represented and 20th century warming was not obvious in this reconstruction. This temperature variation may be affected by global land–sea atmospheric circulation as well as solar and volcanic forcing.
Frazer Matthews-Bird, Stephen J. Brooks, Philip B. Holden, Encarni Montoya, and William D. Gosling
Clim. Past, 12, 1263–1280, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1263-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1263-2016, 2016
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Chironomidae are a family of two-winged aquatic fly of the order Diptera. The family is species rich (> 5000 described species) and extremely sensitive to environmental change, particualy temperature. Across the Northern Hemisphere, chironomids have been widely used as paleotemperature proxies as the chitinous remains of the insect are readily preserved in lake sediments. This is the first study using chironomids as paleotemperature proxies in tropical South America.
Karsten Schittek, Sebastian T. Kock, Andreas Lücke, Jonathan Hense, Christian Ohlendorf, Julio J. Kulemeyer, Liliana C. Lupo, and Frank Schäbitz
Clim. Past, 12, 1165–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1165-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1165-2016, 2016
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Cushion peatlands are versatile climate archives for the study of past environmental changes. We present the environmental history for the last 2100 years of Cerro Tuzgle peatland, which is located in the NW Argentine Puna. The results reflect prominent late Holocene climate anomalies and provide evidence that Northern Hemisphere climate oscillations were extensive. Volcanic forcing at the beginning of the 19th century seems to have had an impact on climatic settings in the Central Andes
Nicholas P. McKay and Julien Emile-Geay
Clim. Past, 12, 1093–1100, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1093-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1093-2016, 2016
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The lack of accepted data formats and data standards in paleoclimatology is a growing problem that slows progress in the field. Here, we propose a preliminary data standard for paleoclimate data, general enough to accommodate all the proxy and measurement types encountered in a large international collaboration (PAGES 2k). We also introduce a data format for such structured data (Linked Paleo Data, or LiPD), leveraging recent advances in knowledge representation (Linked Open Data).
Niamh Cahill, Andrew C. Kemp, Benjamin P. Horton, and Andrew C. Parnell
Clim. Past, 12, 525–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-525-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-525-2016, 2016
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We propose a Bayesian model for the reconstruction and analysis of former sea levels. The model provides a single, unifying framework for reconstructing and analyzing sea level through time with fully quantified uncertainty. We illustrate our approach using a case study of Common Era (last 2000 years) sea levels from New Jersey.
J. Emile-Geay and M. Tingley
Clim. Past, 12, 31–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-31-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-31-2016, 2016
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Ignoring nonlinearity in palaeoclimate records (e.g. continental run-off proxies) runs the risk of severely overstating changes in climate variability. Even with the correct model and parameters, some information is irretrievably lost by such proxies. However, we find that a simple empirical transform can do much to improve the situation, and makes them amenable to classical analyses. Doing so on two palaeo-ENSO records markedly changes some of the quantitative inferences made from such records.
F. Spadin, D. Marti, R. Hidalgo-Staub, J. Rička, D. Fleitmann, and M. Frenz
Clim. Past, 11, 905–913, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-905-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-905-2015, 2015
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Fluid inclusions inside stalagmites retain information on the cave temperature at the time they formed and thus can be used to reconstruct the continental climate of the past. A method for extracting this information based on a thermodynamic model and size measurements of femtosecond-laser-induced vapour bubbles is presented. Applying our method to stalagmites taken from the Milandre cave in the Swiss Jura Mountains demonstrate that palaeotemperatures can be determined with an accuracy of ±1°C.
B. Aichner, S. J. Feakins, J. E. Lee, U. Herzschuh, and X. Liu
Clim. Past, 11, 619–633, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-619-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-619-2015, 2015
H. S. Sundqvist, D. S. Kaufman, N. P. McKay, N. L. Balascio, J. P. Briner, L. C. Cwynar, H. P. Sejrup, H. Seppä, D. A. Subetto, J. T. Andrews, Y. Axford, J. Bakke, H. J. B. Birks, S. J. Brooks, A. de Vernal, A. E. Jennings, F. C. Ljungqvist, K. M. Rühland, C. Saenger, J. P. Smol, and A. E. Viau
Clim. Past, 10, 1605–1631, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1605-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1605-2014, 2014
V. V. Matskovsky and S. Helama
Clim. Past, 10, 1473–1487, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1473-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1473-2014, 2014
V. Drăguşin, M. Staubwasser, D. L. Hoffmann, V. Ersek, B. P. Onac, and D. Veres
Clim. Past, 10, 1363–1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1363-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1363-2014, 2014
E. Dietze, F. Maussion, M. Ahlborn, B. Diekmann, K. Hartmann, K. Henkel, T. Kasper, G. Lockot, S. Opitz, and T. Haberzettl
Clim. Past, 10, 91–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-91-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-91-2014, 2014
K. Rehfeld and J. Kurths
Clim. Past, 10, 107–122, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-107-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-107-2014, 2014
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Short summary
This contribution aims at assessing to what extent the analogue method, a classic technique used in other branches of meteorology and climatology, can be used to perform gridded reconstructions of annual temperature based on the limited information from available but un-calibrated proxies spread across different locations of the world. We conclude that it is indeed possible, albeit with certain limitations that render the method comparable to more classic techniques.
This contribution aims at assessing to what extent the analogue method, a classic technique used...
