Articles | Volume 19, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
27 Jan 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 27 Jan 2023
| 27 Jan 2023
Investigating hydroclimatic impacts of the 168–158 BCE volcanic quartet and their relevance to the Nile River basin and Egyptian history
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York 10025, USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York 10025, USA
Kostas Tsigaridis
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York 10025, USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York 10025, USA
Allegra N. LeGrande
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York 10025, USA
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York 10025, USA
Francis Ludlow
Department of History, School of Histories and Humanities, Trinity
College, Dublin 2, Ireland
Joseph G. Manning
Departments of History and Classics, Yale University, New Haven 06520, USA
Related authors
Ensheng Weng, Igor Aleinov, Ram Singh, Michael J. Puma, Sonali S. McDermid, Nancy Y. Kiang, Maxwell Kelley, Kevin Wilcox, Ray Dybzinski, Caroline E. Farrior, Stephen W. Pacala, and Benjamin I. Cook
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8153–8180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8153-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8153-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a demographic vegetation model to improve the representation of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycles in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. The individual-based competition for light and soil resources makes the modeling of eco-evolutionary optimality possible. This model will enable ModelE to simulate long-term biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks between the climate system and land ecosystems at decadal to centurial temporal scales.
Helen Weierbach, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Kostas Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15491–15505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15491-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15491-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic aerosols impact global and regional climate conditions but can vary depending on pre-existing initial climate conditions. We ran an ensemble of volcanic aerosol simulations under varying ENSO and NAO initial conditions to understand how initial climate states impact the modeled response to volcanic forcing. Overall we found that initial NAO conditions can impact the strength of the first winter post-eruptive response but are also affected by the choice of anomaly and sampling routine.
Fangxuan Ren, Jintai Lin, Chenghao Xu, Jamiu A. Adeniran, Jingxu Wang, Randall V. Martin, Aaron van Donkelaar, Melanie Hammer, Larry Horowitz, Steven T. Turnock, Naga Oshima, Jie Zhang, Susanne Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Gary Strand, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Toshihiko Takemura
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2370, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the performance of 14 CMIP6 ESMs in simulating total PM2.5 and its five components over China during 2000–2014. PM2.5 and its components are underestimated in almost all models, except that black carbon (BC) and sulfate are overestimated in two models respectively. The underestimation is the largest for organic carbon (OC) and the smallest for BC. Models reproduce well the observed spatial pattern for OC, sulfate, nitrate and ammonium, yet the agreement is poorer for BC.
Maegan A. DeLessio, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Jacek Chowdhary, and Gregory L. Schuster
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2472, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first explicit representation of brown carbon aerosols in the GISS ModelE Earth system model (ESM). Model sensitivity to a range of brown carbon parameters, as well as model performance compared to AERONET and MODIS retrievals of total aerosol properties, was assessed. General recommendations for incorporating brown carbon into ESMs are also included.
Ming Luo, Helen M. Worden, Robert D. Field, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Gregory S. Elsaesser
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1369, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The TROPESS CrIS single-pixel CO profile retrievals are compared to the MOPITT CO products in steps of adjusting them to the common a priori assumptions. The two data sets are found to agree within 5 %. We also demonstrated and analyzed the proper steps in evaluating GISS ModelE CO simulations using satellite CO retrieval products for the Western US wildfire events in September 2020.
Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Massimo A. Bollasina, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T. Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, David J. Paynter, Geeta G. Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sabine Undorf, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4451–4479, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional climate change. However, the size of these regional impacts and the way they arise are still uncertain. With large changes in aerosol emissions a possibility over the next few decades, it is important to better quantify the potential role of aerosol in future regional climate change. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project will deliver experiments designed to facilitate this.
Alexandra Rivera, Kostas Tsigaridis, Gregory Faluvegi, and Drew Shindell
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-110, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes and evaluates an improvement to the representation of acetone in the GISS ModelE2.1 Earth system model. We simulate acetone's concentration and transport across the atmosphere, as well as its dependence on chemistry, the ocean, and various global emissions. Comparisons of our model’s estimates to past modeling studies and field measurements have shown encouraging results. Ultimately, this paper contributes to a broader understanding of acetone's role in the atmosphere.
Vincenzo Obiso, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Gregory L. Schuster, Susanne E. Bauer, Claudia Di Biagio, Paola Formenti, Jan P. Perlwitz, Konstantinos Tsigaridis, and Ronald L. Miller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1166, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We account for regionally varying soil mineral content to calculate the dust shortwave direct radiative effect. Compared to a model with uniform dust composition, our observationally constrained approach reduces dust absorption while increasing its spatio-temporal variation, in better agreement with AERONET. Explicit treatment of mineral content increases cooling by dust. Better measurements of soil minerals and refined modeling techniques are needed to improve estimates of dust-climate impacts.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Kathy S. Law, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Henrik Skov, Stephen R. Arnold, Joakim Langner, Jakob Boyd Pernov, Garance Bergeron, Ilann Bourgeois, Jesper H. Christensen, Rong-You Chien, Makoto Deushi, Xinyi Dong, Peter Effertz, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Greg Huey, Ulas Im, Rigel Kivi, Louis Marelle, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Jeff Peischl, David A. Plummer, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Tom Ryerson, Ragnhild Skeie, Sverre Solberg, Manu A. Thomas, Chelsea Thompson, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven T. Turnock, Knut von Salzen, and David W. Tarasick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 637–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-637-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study summarizes recent research on ozone in the Arctic, a sensitive and rapidly warming region. We find that the seasonal cycles of near-surface atmospheric ozone are variable depending on whether they are near the coast, inland, or at high altitude. Several global model simulations were evaluated, and we found that because models lack some of the ozone chemistry that is important for the coastal Arctic locations, they do not accurately simulate ozone there.
Ensheng Weng, Igor Aleinov, Ram Singh, Michael J. Puma, Sonali S. McDermid, Nancy Y. Kiang, Maxwell Kelley, Kevin Wilcox, Ray Dybzinski, Caroline E. Farrior, Stephen W. Pacala, and Benjamin I. Cook
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8153–8180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8153-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8153-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a demographic vegetation model to improve the representation of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycles in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. The individual-based competition for light and soil resources makes the modeling of eco-evolutionary optimality possible. This model will enable ModelE to simulate long-term biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks between the climate system and land ecosystems at decadal to centurial temporal scales.
Elizabeth Klovenski, Yuxuan Wang, Susanne E. Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Greg Faluvegi, Igor Aleinov, Nancy Y. Kiang, Alex Guenther, Xiaoyan Jiang, Wei Li, and Nan Lin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13303–13323, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13303-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13303-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Severe drought stresses vegetation and causes reduced emission of isoprene. We study the impact of including a new isoprene drought stress (yd) parameterization in NASA GISS ModelE called DroughtStress_ModelE, which is specifically tuned for ModelE. Inclusion of yd leads to better simulated isoprene emissions at the MOFLUX site during the severe drought of 2012, reduced overestimation of OMI satellite ΩHCHO (formaldehyde column), and improved simulated O3 (ozone) during drought.
Flossie Brown, Gerd A. Folberth, Stephen Sitch, Susanne Bauer, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Alexander W. Cheesman, Makoto Deushi, Inês Dos Santos Vieira, Corinne Galy-Lacaux, James Haywood, James Keeble, Lina M. Mercado, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Hans Verbeeck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12331–12352, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12331-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12331-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Surface ozone can decrease plant productivity and impair human health. In this study, we evaluate the change in surface ozone due to climate change over South America and Africa using Earth system models. We find that if the climate were to change according to the worst-case scenario used here, models predict that forested areas in biomass burning locations and urban populations will be at increasing risk of ozone exposure, but other areas will experience a climate benefit.
Qirui Zhong, Nick Schutgens, Guido van der Werf, Twan van Noije, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Tero Mielonen, Alf Kirkevåg, Øyvind Seland, Harri Kokkola, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, David Neubauer, Zak Kipling, Hitoshi Matsui, Paul Ginoux, Toshihiko Takemura, Philippe Le Sager, Samuel Rémy, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Kai Zhang, Jialei Zhu, Svetlana G. Tsyro, Gabriele Curci, Anna Protonotariou, Ben Johnson, Joyce E. Penner, Nicolas Bellouin, Ragnhild B. Skeie, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11009–11032, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11009-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11009-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol optical depth (AOD) errors for biomass burning aerosol (BBA) are evaluated in 18 global models against satellite datasets. Notwithstanding biases in satellite products, they allow model evaluations. We observe large and diverse model biases due to errors in BBA. Further interpretations of AOD diversities suggest large biases exist in key processes for BBA which require better constraining. These results can contribute to further model improvement and development.
Janica C. Bühler, Josefine Axelsson, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Jens Fohlmeister, Allegra N. LeGrande, Madhavan Midhun, Jesper Sjolte, Martin Werner, Kei Yoshimura, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 18, 1625–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We collected and standardized the output of five isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium and assess differences and similarities to records from a global speleothem database. Modeled isotope variations mostly arise from temperature differences. While lower-resolution speleothems do not capture extreme changes to the extent of models, they show higher variability on multi-decadal timescales. As no model excels in all comparisons, we advise a multi-model approach where possible.
Helen Mackay, Gill Plunkett, Britta J. L. Jensen, Thomas J. Aubry, Christophe Corona, Woon Mi Kim, Matthew Toohey, Michael Sigl, Markus Stoffel, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Christoph Raible, Matthew S. M. Bolton, Joseph G. Manning, Timothy P. Newfield, Nicola Di Cosmo, Francis Ludlow, Conor Kostick, Zhen Yang, Lisa Coyle McClung, Matthew Amesbury, Alistair Monteath, Paul D. M. Hughes, Pete G. Langdon, Dan Charman, Robert Booth, Kimberley L. Davies, Antony Blundell, and Graeme T. Swindles
Clim. Past, 18, 1475–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant Northern Hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal response is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption even when it is precisely dated.
Markus Stoffel, Christophe Corona, Francis Ludlow, Michael Sigl, Heli Huhtamaa, Emmanuel Garnier, Samuli Helama, Sébastien Guillet, Arlene Crampsie, Katrin Kleemann, Chantal Camenisch, Joseph McConnell, and Chaochao Gao
Clim. Past, 18, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-17th century saw several volcanic eruptions, deteriorating climate, political instability, and famine in Europe, China, and Japan. We analyze impacts of the eruptions on climate but also study their socio-political context. We show that an unambiguous distinction of volcanic cooling or wetting from natural climate variability is not straightforward. It also shows that political instability, poor harvest, and famine cannot only be attributed to volcanic climatic impacts.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Rashed Mahmood, Knut von Salzen, Barbara Winter, Sabine Eckhardt, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Silvia Becagli, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Sujay Manish Damani, Xinyi Dong, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Fabio Giardi, Wanmin Gong, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Lin Huang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Srinath Krishnan, Zbigniew Klimont, Thomas Kühn, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Andreas Massling, Dirk Olivié, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Yiran Peng, David A. Plummer, Olga Popovicheva, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Maria Sand, Laura N. Saunders, Julia Schmale, Sangeeta Sharma, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Henrik Skov, Fumikazu Taketani, Manu A. Thomas, Rita Traversi, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven Turnock, Vito Vitale, Kaley A. Walker, Minqi Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Tahya Weiss-Gibbons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5775–5828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Air pollutants, like ozone and soot, play a role in both global warming and air quality. Atmospheric models are often used to provide information to policy makers about current and future conditions under different emissions scenarios. In order to have confidence in those simulations, in this study we compare simulated air pollution from 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric models to measured air pollution in order to assess how well the models perform.
Henry Bowman, Steven Turnock, Susanne E. Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Makoto Deushi, Naga Oshima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Larry Horowitz, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Dagmar Kubistin, and David D. Parrish
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3507–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3507-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A full understanding of ozone in the troposphere requires investigation of its temporal variability over all timescales. Model simulations show that the northern midlatitude ozone seasonal cycle shifted with industrial development (1850–2014), with an increasing magnitude and a later summer peak. That shift reached a maximum in the mid-1980s, followed by a reversal toward the preindustrial cycle. The few available observations, beginning in the 1970s, are consistent with the model simulations.
Davide Zanchettin, Claudia Timmreck, Myriam Khodri, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Manabu Abe, Slimane Bekki, Jason Cole, Shih-Wei Fang, Wuhu Feng, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Nicolas Lebas, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Landon Rieger, Alan Robock, Sara Rubinetti, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Helen Weierbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2265–2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides metadata and first analyses of the volc-pinatubo-full experiment of CMIP6-VolMIP. Results from six Earth system models reveal significant differences in radiative flux anomalies that trace back to different implementations of volcanic forcing. Surface responses are in contrast overall consistent across models, reflecting the large spread due to internal variability. A second phase of VolMIP shall consider both aspects toward improved protocol for volc-pinatubo-full.
Robert D. Field, Jonathan E. Hickman, Igor V. Geogdzhayev, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Susanne E. Bauer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18333–18350, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18333-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18333-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we examined changes in atmospheric composition over China from satellite measurements during the COVID lockdowns of 2020. We found that interpreting changes in 2020 depended strongly on the background period and whether trends were accounted for. In most cases, pollution levels in 2020 were lower than during the previous few years when pollution levels appear to have stabilized.
Jonathan E. Hickman, Niels Andela, Enrico Dammers, Lieven Clarisse, Pierre-François Coheur, Martin Van Damme, Courtney A. Di Vittorio, Money Ossohou, Corinne Galy-Lacaux, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Susanne E. Bauer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16277–16291, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16277-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16277-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ammonia (NH3) gas emitted from soils and biomass burning contributes to particulate air pollution. We used satellite observations of the atmosphere over Africa to show that declines in NH3 concentrations over South Sudan's Sudd wetland in 2008–2017 are related to variation in wetland extent. We also find NH3 concentrations increased in West Africa as a result of biomass burning and increased in the Lake Victoria region, likely due to agricultural expansion and intensification.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Jonas Gliß, Susanne E. Bauer, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Paul Ginoux, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Twan van Noije, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Remy, Michael Schulz, Philip Stier, Camilla W. Stjern, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15929–15947, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Absorption of shortwave radiation by aerosols can modify precipitation and clouds but is poorly constrained in models. A total of 15 different aerosol models from AeroCom phase III have reported total aerosol absorption, and for the first time, 11 of these models have reported in a consistent experiment the contributions to absorption from black carbon, dust, and organic aerosol. Here, we document the model diversity in aerosol absorption.
Ulas Im, Kostas Tsigaridis, Gregory Faluvegi, Peter L. Langen, Joshua P. French, Rashed Mahmood, Manu A. Thomas, Knut von Salzen, Daniel C. Thomas, Cynthia H. Whaley, Zbigniew Klimont, Henrik Skov, and Jørgen Brandt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10413–10438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Future (2015–2050) simulations of the aerosol burdens and their radiative forcing and climate impacts over the Arctic under various emission projections show that although the Arctic aerosol burdens are projected to decrease significantly by 10 to 60 %, regardless of the magnitude of aerosol reductions, surface air temperatures will continue to increase by 1.9–2.6 ℃, while sea-ice extent will continue to decrease, implying reductions of greenhouse gases are necessary to mitigate climate change.
David D. Parrish, Richard G. Derwent, Steven T. Turnock, Fiona M. O'Connor, Johannes Staehelin, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Naga Oshima, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9669–9679, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9669-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9669-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The few ozone measurements made before the 1980s indicate that industrial development increased ozone concentrations by a factor of ~ 2 at northern midlatitudes, which are now larger than at southern midlatitudes. This difference was much smaller, and likely reversed, in the pre-industrial atmosphere. Earth system models find similar increases, but not higher pre-industrial ozone in the south. This disagreement may indicate that modeled natural ozone sources and/or deposition loss are inadequate.
Sarah E. Parker, Sandy P. Harrison, Laia Comas-Bru, Nikita Kaushal, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 1119–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional trends in the oxygen isotope (δ18O) composition of stalagmites reflect several climate processes. We compare stalagmite δ18O records from monsoon regions and model simulations to identify the causes of δ18O variability over the last 12 000 years, and between glacial and interglacial states. Precipitation changes explain the glacial–interglacial δ18O changes in all monsoon regions; Holocene trends are due to a combination of precipitation, atmospheric circulation and temperature changes.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Gillian Thornhill, William Collins, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alex Archibald, Susanne Bauer, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Stephanie Fiedler, Gerd Folberth, Ada Gjermundsen, Larry Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Fabien Paulot, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Roland Séférian, Chris Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and James Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1105–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We find that increased temperatures affect aerosols and reactive gases by changing natural emissions and their rates of removal from the atmosphere. Changing the composition of these species in the atmosphere affects the radiative budget of the climate system and therefore amplifies or dampens the climate response of climate models of the Earth system. This study found that the largest effect is a dampening of climate change as warmer temperatures increase the emissions of cooling aerosols.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Jonas Gliß, Augustin Mortier, Michael Schulz, Elisabeth Andrews, Yves Balkanski, Susanne E. Bauer, Anna M. K. Benedictow, Huisheng Bian, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Mian Chin, Paul Ginoux, Jan J. Griesfeller, Andreas Heckel, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Paolo Laj, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Gunnar Myhre, David Neubauer, Twan van Noije, Peter North, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Rémy, Larisa Sogacheva, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Svetlana G. Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 87–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Simulated aerosol optical properties as well as the aerosol life cycle are investigated for 14 global models participating in the AeroCom initiative. Considerable diversity is found in the simulated aerosol species emissions and lifetimes, also resulting in a large diversity in the simulated aerosol mass, composition, and optical properties. A comparison with observations suggests that, on average, current models underestimate the direct effect of aerosol on the atmosphere radiation budget.
Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A first assessment is made of the historical and future changes in air pollutants from models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Substantial benefits to future air quality can be achieved in future scenarios that implement measures to mitigate climate and involve reductions in air pollutant emissions, particularly methane. However, important differences are shown between models in the future regional projection of air pollutants under the same scenario.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Robert J. Allen, Steven Turnock, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Martine Michou, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Toshihiko Takemura, Michael Schulz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Louisa Emmons, Larry Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Prodromos Zanis, Ina Tegen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Philippe Le Sager, Peter Good, Sungbo Shim, Fiona O'Connor, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Makoto Deushi, Lori T. Sentman, Jasmin G. John, Shinichiro Fujimori, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9641–9663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, 2020
Prodromos Zanis, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Robert J. Allen, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Jason Cole, Ben Johnson, Makoto Deushi, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Adriana Sima, Michael Schulz, Toshihiko Takemura, and Konstantinos Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8381–8404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014.
Keren Mezuman, Kostas Tsigaridis, Gregory Faluvegi, and Susanne E. Bauer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3091–3118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3091-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3091-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Fires affect the composition of the atmosphere and Earth’s radiation balance by emitting a suite of reactive gases and particles. An interactive fire module in an Earth system model (ESM) allows us to study the natural and anthropogenic drivers, feedbacks, and interactions of open fires. To do so, we have developed pyrE, the NASA GISS interactive fire emissions module.
The main motivation behind this work is to have fire emissions reacting to climate change and anthropogenic activities.
Alma Hodzic, Pedro Campuzano-Jost, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Peter R. Colarco, Douglas A. Day, Karl D. Froyd, Bernd Heinold, Duseong S. Jo, Joseph M. Katich, John K. Kodros, Benjamin A. Nault, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Eric Ray, Jacob Schacht, Gregory P. Schill, Jason C. Schroder, Joshua P. Schwarz, Donna T. Sueper, Ina Tegen, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Pengfei Yu, and Jose L. Jimenez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4607–4635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4607-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4607-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Organic aerosol (OA) is a key source of uncertainty in aerosol climate effects. We present the first pole-to-pole OA characterization during the NASA Atmospheric Tomography aircraft mission. OA has a strong seasonal and zonal variability, with the highest levels in summer and over fire-influenced regions and the lowest ones in the southern high latitudes. We show that global models predict the OA distribution well but not the relative contribution of OA emissions vs. chemical production.
Thomas J. Fauchez, Martin Turbet, Eric T. Wolf, Ian Boutle, Michael J. Way, Anthony D. Del Genio, Nathan J. Mayne, Konstantinos Tsigaridis, Ravi K. Kopparapu, Jun Yang, Francois Forget, Avi Mandell, and Shawn D. Domagal Goldman
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 707–716, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-707-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-707-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric characterization of rocky exoplanets orbiting within the habitable zone of nearby M dwarf stars is around the corner with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), expected to be launch in 2021.
Global climate models (GCMs) are powerful tools to model exoplanet atmospheres and to predict their habitability. However, intrinsic differences between the models can lead to various predictions. This paper presents an experiment protocol to evaluate these differences.
George S. Fanourgakis, Maria Kanakidou, Athanasios Nenes, Susanne E. Bauer, Tommi Bergman, Ken S. Carslaw, Alf Grini, Douglas S. Hamilton, Jill S. Johnson, Vlassis A. Karydis, Alf Kirkevåg, John K. Kodros, Ulrike Lohmann, Gan Luo, Risto Makkonen, Hitoshi Matsui, David Neubauer, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Julia Schmale, Philip Stier, Kostas Tsigaridis, Twan van Noije, Hailong Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Yang Yang, Masaru Yoshioka, Nikos Daskalakis, Stefano Decesari, Martin Gysel-Beer, Nikos Kalivitis, Xiaohong Liu, Natalie M. Mahowald, Stelios Myriokefalitakis, Roland Schrödner, Maria Sfakianaki, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Mingxuan Wu, and Fangqun Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8591–8617, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8591-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Effects of aerosols on clouds are important for climate studies but are among the largest uncertainties in climate projections. This study evaluates the skill of global models to simulate aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNCs). Model results show reduced spread in CDNC compared to CCN due to the negative correlation between the sensitivities of CDNC to aerosol number concentration (air pollution) and updraft velocity (atmospheric dynamics).
Chloe Y. Gao, Susanne E. Bauer, and Kostas Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14243–14251, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14243-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14243-2018, 2018
Stephanie A. P. Blake, Sophie C. Lewis, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Ron L. Miller
Clim. Past, 14, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-811-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the impact of the six largest tropical eruptions in reference to
Australian precipitation, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Volcanic forcing increased the likelihood of El Niños and positive IODs (pIOD) and caused positive rainfall anomalies over north-west (NW) and south-east (SE) Australia. Larger sulfate loading caused more persistent pIOD and El Niños, enhanced precipitation over NW Australia, and dampened precipitation over SE Australia.
Jingqiu Mao, Annmarie Carlton, Ronald C. Cohen, William H. Brune, Steven S. Brown, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jose L. Jimenez, Havala O. T. Pye, Nga Lee Ng, Lu Xu, V. Faye McNeill, Kostas Tsigaridis, Brian C. McDonald, Carsten Warneke, Alex Guenther, Matthew J. Alvarado, Joost de Gouw, Loretta J. Mickley, Eric M. Leibensperger, Rohit Mathur, Christopher G. Nolte, Robert W. Portmann, Nadine Unger, Mika Tosca, and Larry W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2615–2651, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2615-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing, and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models.
Lauren Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Ken S. Carslaw, Graham W. Mann, Michael Sigl, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Davide Zanchettin, William T. Ball, Slimane Bekki, James S. A. Brooke, Sandip Dhomse, Colin Johnson, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, James O. Pope, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use four global aerosol models to compare the simulated sulfate deposition from the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption to ice core records. Inter-model volcanic sulfate deposition differs considerably. Volcanic sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets is used to estimate the atmospheric sulfate burden and subsequently radiative forcing of historic eruptions. Our results suggest that deriving such relationships from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, Susanne E. Bauer, Marianne T. Lund, Vlassis A. Karydis, Tom L. Kucsera, Xiaohua Pan, Andrea Pozzer, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Stephen D. Steenrod, Kengo Sudo, Kostas Tsigaridis, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, and Svetlana G. Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12911–12940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12911-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12911-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric nitrate contributes notably to total aerosol mass in the present day and is likely to be more important over the next century, with a projected decline in SO2 and NOx emissions and increase in NH3 emissions. This paper investigates atmospheric nitrate using multiple global models and measurements. The study is part of the AeroCom phase III activity. The study is the first attempt to look at global atmospheric nitrate simulation at physical and chemical process levels.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Yves Balkanski, Susanne Bauer, Nicolas Bellouin, Terje K. Berntsen, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Thomas Diehl, Richard Easter, Steven J. Ghan, Trond Iversen, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-François Lamarque, Guangxing Lin, Xiaohong Liu, Gan Luo, Gunnar Myhre, Twan van Noije, Joyce E. Penner, Michael Schulz, Øyvind Seland, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Fangqun Yu, Kai Zhang, and Hua Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12197–12218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12197-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12197-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The role of aerosols in the changing polar climate is not well understood and the aerosols are poorly constrained in the models. In this study we have compared output from 16 different aerosol models with available observations at both poles. We show that the model median is representative of the observations, but the model spread is large. The Arctic direct aerosol radiative effect over the industrial area is positive during spring due to black carbon and negative during summer due to sulfate.
Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Eleni Anagnostou, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Rodrigo Caballero, Rob DeConto, Henk A. Dijkstra, Yannick Donnadieu, David Evans, Ran Feng, Gavin L. Foster, Ed Gasson, Anna S. von der Heydt, Chris J. Hollis, Gordon N. Inglis, Stephen M. Jones, Jeff Kiehl, Sandy Kirtland Turner, Robert L. Korty, Reinhardt Kozdon, Srinath Krishnan, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Petra Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Allegra N. LeGrande, Kate Littler, Paul Markwick, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Paul Pearson, Christopher J. Poulsen, Ulrich Salzmann, Christine Shields, Kathryn Snell, Michael Stärz, James Super, Clay Tabor, Jessica E. Tierney, Gregory J. L. Tourte, Aradhna Tripati, Garland R. Upchurch, Bridget S. Wade, Scott L. Wing, Arne M. E. Winguth, Nicky M. Wright, James C. Zachos, and Richard E. Zeebe
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 889–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we describe the experimental design for a set of simulations which will be carried out by a range of climate models, all investigating the climate of the Eocene, about 50 million years ago. The intercomparison of model results is called 'DeepMIP', and we anticipate that we will contribute to the next IPCC report through an analysis of these simulations and the geological data to which we will compare them.
Chloe Y. Gao, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Susanne E. Bauer
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 751–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-751-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-751-2017, 2017
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Keren Mezuman, Susanne E. Bauer, and Kostas Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10651–10669, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10651-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10651-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We test new parameterizations for secondary inorganic aerosols in GISS ModelE. To evaluate the model performance, we use measurements of these aerosols and gaseous precursors from surface and aircraft measurements over the USA and Europe. We show that considering the size distribution of these particles, as well as a variety of formation pathways, is important. Overall, our model underestimates the aerosol mass compared to measurements, while gaseous precursors are overestimated.
Christopher M. Colose, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Mathias Vuille
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 681–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-681-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-681-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A band of intense rainfall exists near the equator known as the intertropical convergence zone, which can migrate in response to climate forcings. Here, we assess such migration in response to volcanic eruptions of varying spatial structure (Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, or an eruption fairly symmetric about the equator). We do this using model simulations of the last millennium and link results to energetic constraints and the imprint eruptions may leave behind in past records.
Davide Zanchettin, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Anja Schmidt, Edwin P. Gerber, Gabriele Hegerl, Alan Robock, Francesco S. R. Pausata, William T. Ball, Susanne E. Bauer, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Michael Mills, Marion Marchand, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Eugene Rozanov, Angelo Rubino, Andrea Stenke, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating volcanically-forced climate variability is a challenging task for climate models. The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) – an endorsed contribution to CMIP6 – defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability of results across different climate models. This paper illustrates the design of VolMIP's experiments and describes the aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.
Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, Nicolas Bellouin, William J. Collins, Greg Faluvegi, and Kostas Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9785–9804, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9785-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9785-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models are our primary tool to investigate how fossil-fuel emissions are affecting the climate. Here, we used three different climate models to see how they simulate the response to removing sulfur dioxide emissions from China. We found that the models disagreed substantially on how large the climate effect is from the emissions in this region. This range of outcomes is concerning if scientists or policy makers have to rely on any one model when performing their own studies.
Nikos Daskalakis, Kostas Tsigaridis, Stelios Myriokefalitakis, George S. Fanourgakis, and Maria Kanakidou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9771–9784, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9771-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9771-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Three 30-year simulations of past atmospheric composition changes were performed using different anthropogenic emissions of pollutants accounting or not for the applied air quality legislation and accounting for the year–to–year observed climate and natural emissions variability. The actual benefit of applied legislation along with technological advances is higher than what is usually calculated by a simple comparison of today's atmosphere against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation.
Christopher M. Colose, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Mathias Vuille
Clim. Past, 12, 961–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-961-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-961-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic forcing is the most important source of forced variability during the preindustrial component of the last millennium (~ 850-1850 CE) and is important during the last century.
Here, we focus on the climate impact over South America in a model-based study. Emphasis is given to temperature, precipitation, and oxygen isotope variability (allowing for potential contact made with paleoclimate-based observations)
Here, we focus on the climate impact over South America in a model-based study. Emphasis is given to temperature, precipitation, and oxygen isotope variability (allowing for potential contact made with paleoclimate-based observations)
Zhe Peng, Douglas A. Day, Amber M. Ortega, Brett B. Palm, Weiwei Hu, Harald Stark, Rui Li, Kostas Tsigaridis, William H. Brune, and Jose L. Jimenez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4283–4305, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4283-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4283-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Oxidation flow reactors (OFRs) are promising tools of studying atmospheric oxidation processes. Elevated concentrations of both OH and non-OH oxidants in OFRs leave room for speculation that non-OH chemistry can play a major role. Through systematic modeling, we find conditions where non-OH VOC fate is significant and show that, in most field studies of SOA using OFRs, non-OH VOC fate in OFRs was insignificant. We also provide guidelines helping OFR users avoid significant non-OH VOC oxidation.
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Paul Hearty, Reto Ruedy, Maxwell Kelley, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Gary Russell, George Tselioudis, Junji Cao, Eric Rignot, Isabella Velicogna, Blair Tormey, Bailey Donovan, Evgeniya Kandiano, Karina von Schuckmann, Pushker Kharecha, Allegra N. Legrande, Michael Bauer, and Kwok-Wai Lo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We use climate simulations, paleoclimate data and modern observations to infer that continued high fossil fuel emissions will yield cooling of Southern Ocean and North Atlantic surfaces, slowdown and shutdown of SMOC & AMOC, increasingly powerful storms and nonlinear sea level rise reaching several meters in 50–150 years, effects missed in IPCC reports because of omission of ice sheet melt and an insensitivity of most climate models, likely due to excessive ocean mixing.
N. I. Kristiansen, A. Stohl, D. J. L. Olivié, B. Croft, O. A. Søvde, H. Klein, T. Christoudias, D. Kunkel, S. J. Leadbetter, Y. H. Lee, K. Zhang, K. Tsigaridis, T. Bergman, N. Evangeliou, H. Wang, P.-L. Ma, R. C. Easter, P. J. Rasch, X. Liu, G. Pitari, G. Di Genova, S. Y. Zhao, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, G. S. Faluvegi, H. Kokkola, R. V. Martin, J. R. Pierce, M. Schulz, D. Shindell, H. Tost, and H. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3525–3561, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3525-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3525-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Processes affecting aerosol removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood. In this study we investigate to what extent atmospheric transport models can reproduce observed loss of aerosols. We compare measurements of radioactive isotopes, that attached to ambient sulfate aerosols during the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident, to 19 models using identical emissions. Results indicate aerosol removal that is too fast in most models, and apply to aerosols that have undergone long-range transport.
Zak Kipling, Philip Stier, Colin E. Johnson, Graham W. Mann, Nicolas Bellouin, Susanne E. Bauer, Tommi Bergman, Mian Chin, Thomas Diehl, Steven J. Ghan, Trond Iversen, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Xiaohong Liu, Gan Luo, Twan van Noije, Kirsty J. Pringle, Knut von Salzen, Michael Schulz, Øyvind Seland, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Kai Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2221–2241, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2221-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2221-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The vertical distribution of atmospheric aerosol is an important factor in its effects on climate. In this study we use a sophisticated model of the many interacting processes affecting aerosol in the atmosphere to show that the vertical distribution is typically dominated by only a few of these processes. Constraining these physical processes may help to reduce the large differences between models. However, the important processes are not always the same for different types of aerosol.
Matthew J. Carmichael, Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Malte Heinemann, Jeffrey Kiehl, Allegra LeGrande, Claire A. Loptson, Chris D. Roberts, Navjit Sagoo, Christine Shields, Paul J. Valdes, Arne Winguth, Cornelia Winguth, and Richard D. Pancost
Clim. Past, 12, 455–481, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-455-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-455-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we assess how well model-simulated precipitation rates compare to those indicated by geological data for the early Eocene, a warm interval 56–49 million years ago. Our results show that a number of models struggle to produce sufficient precipitation at high latitudes, which likely relates to cool simulated temperatures in these regions. However, calculating precipitation rates from plant fossils is highly uncertain, and further data are now required.
S. Jasechko, A. Lechler, F. S. R. Pausata, P. J. Fawcett, T. Gleeson, D. I. Cendón, J. Galewsky, A. N. LeGrande, C. Risi, Z. D. Sharp, J. M. Welker, M. Werner, and K. Yoshimura
Clim. Past, 11, 1375–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we compile global isotope proxy records of climate changes from the last ice age to the late-Holocene preserved in cave calcite, glacial ice and groundwater aquifers. We show that global patterns of late-Pleistocene to late-Holocene precipitation isotope shifts are consistent with stronger-than-modern isotopic distillation of air masses during the last ice age, likely impacted by larger global temperature differences between the tropics and the poles.
S. C. Lewis and A. N. LeGrande
Clim. Past, 11, 1347–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, 2015
X. Pan, M. Chin, R. Gautam, H. Bian, D. Kim, P. R. Colarco, T. L. Diehl, T. Takemura, L. Pozzoli, K. Tsigaridis, S. Bauer, and N. Bellouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5903–5928, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5903-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5903-2015, 2015
B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, A. Herber, Y. Kondo, S.-M. Li, N. Moteki, M. Koike, N. Oshima, J. P. Schwarz, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, M. Chin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, J. E. Penner, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12465–12477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12465-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12465-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Far from black carbon (BC) emission sources, present climate models are unable to reproduce flight measurements. By comparing recent models with data, we find that the atmospheric lifetime of BC may be overestimated in models. By adjusting modeled BC concentrations to measurements in remote regions - over oceans and at high altitudes - we arrive at a reduced estimate for BC radiative forcing over the industrial era.
K. Tsigaridis, N. Daskalakis, M. Kanakidou, P. J. Adams, P. Artaxo, R. Bahadur, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, A. Benedetti, T. Bergman, T. K. Berntsen, J. P. Beukes, H. Bian, K. S. Carslaw, M. Chin, G. Curci, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, S. L. Gong, A. Hodzic, C. R. Hoyle, T. Iversen, S. Jathar, J. L. Jimenez, J. W. Kaiser, A. Kirkevåg, D. Koch, H. Kokkola, Y. H Lee, G. Lin, X. Liu, G. Luo, X. Ma, G. W. Mann, N. Mihalopoulos, J.-J. Morcrette, J.-F. Müller, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, N. L. Ng, D. O'Donnell, J. E. Penner, L. Pozzoli, K. J. Pringle, L. M. Russell, M. Schulz, J. Sciare, Ø. Seland, D. T. Shindell, S. Sillman, R. B. Skeie, D. Spracklen, T. Stavrakou, S. D. Steenrod, T. Takemura, P. Tiitta, S. Tilmes, H. Tost, T. van Noije, P. G. van Zyl, K. von Salzen, F. Yu, Z. Wang, Z. Wang, R. A. Zaveri, H. Zhang, K. Zhang, Q. Zhang, and X. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10845–10895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10845-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10845-2014, 2014
G. W. Mann, K. S. Carslaw, C. L. Reddington, K. J. Pringle, M. Schulz, A. Asmi, D. V. Spracklen, D. A. Ridley, M. T. Woodhouse, L. A. Lee, K. Zhang, S. J. Ghan, R. C. Easter, X. Liu, P. Stier, Y. H. Lee, P. J. Adams, H. Tost, J. Lelieveld, S. E. Bauer, K. Tsigaridis, T. P. C. van Noije, A. Strunk, E. Vignati, N. Bellouin, M. Dalvi, C. E. Johnson, T. Bergman, H. Kokkola, K. von Salzen, F. Yu, G. Luo, A. Petzold, J. Heintzenberg, A. Clarke, J. A. Ogren, J. Gras, U. Baltensperger, U. Kaminski, S. G. Jennings, C. D. O'Dowd, R. M. Harrison, D. C. S. Beddows, M. Kulmala, Y. Viisanen, V. Ulevicius, N. Mihalopoulos, V. Zdimal, M. Fiebig, H.-C. Hansson, E. Swietlicki, and J. S. Henzing
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4679–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4679-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4679-2014, 2014
D. J. Ullman, A. N. LeGrande, A. E. Carlson, F. S. Anslow, and J. M. Licciardi
Clim. Past, 10, 487–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, 2014
E. Gasson, D. J. Lunt, R. DeConto, A. Goldner, M. Heinemann, M. Huber, A. N. LeGrande, D. Pollard, N. Sagoo, M. Siddall, A. Winguth, and P. J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 10, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-451-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-451-2014, 2014
C. Jiao, M. G. Flanner, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, K. S. Carslaw, M. Chin, N. De Luca, T. Diehl, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, A. Kirkevåg, D. Koch, X. Liu, G. W. Mann, J. E. Penner, G. Pitari, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, S. D. Steenrod, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, T. van Noije, Y. Yun, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2399–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2399-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2399-2014, 2014
G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 10, 221–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014
M. Trail, A. P. Tsimpidi, P. Liu, K. Tsigaridis, Y. Hu, A. Nenes, and A. G. Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1429–1445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1429-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1429-2013, 2013
C. Morrill, A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 9, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, 2013
B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, M. Schulz, Y. Balkanski, S. Bauer, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, N. Bellouin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, S. Kinne, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, J. E. Penner, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2423–2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2423-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2423-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Holocene
Simulating dust emissions and secondary organic aerosol formation over northern Africa during the mid-Holocene Green Sahara period
Quantifying effects of Earth orbital parameters and greenhouse gases on mid-Holocene climate
Contribution of lakes in sustaining the Sahara greening during the mid-Holocene
Did the Bronze Age deforestation of Europe affect its climate? A regional climate model study using pollen-based land cover reconstructions
Indian Ocean variability changes in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project
CHELSA-TraCE21k – high-resolution (1 km) downscaled transient temperature and precipitation data since the Last Glacial Maximum
Simulations of the Holocene climate in Europe using an interactive downscaling within the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.1)
Mid-Holocene climate of the Tibetan Plateau and hydroclimate in three major river basins based on high-resolution regional climate simulations
Comparison of the green-to-desert Sahara transitions between the Holocene and the last interglacial
Influence of long-term changes in solar irradiance forcing on the Southern Annular Mode
Simulated range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes from extended lakes and wetlands over North Africa
Calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation based on model-ensemble equilibrium and transient simulations from PMIP4 and PACMEDY
The long-standing dilemma of European summer temperatures at the mid-Holocene and other considerations on learning from the past for the future using a regional climate model
Mid-Holocene monsoons in South and Southeast Asia: dynamically downscaled simulations and the influence of the Green Sahara
The remote response of the South Asian Monsoon to reduced dust emissions and Sahara greening during the middle Holocene
Impact of dust in PMIP-CMIP6 mid-Holocene simulations with the IPSL model
Technical note: Characterising and comparing different palaeoclimates with dynamical systems theory
Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations
CMIP6/PMIP4 simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial using HadGEM3: comparison to the pre-industrial era, previous model versions and proxy data
Water isotopes – climate relationships for the mid-Holocene and preindustrial period simulated with an isotope-enabled version of MPI-ESM
Effects of land use and anthropogenic aerosol emissions in the Roman Empire
Strengths and challenges for transient Mid- to Late Holocene simulations with dynamical vegetation
Physical processes of cooling and mega-drought during the 4.2 ka BP event: results from TraCE-21ka simulations
Comparing the spatial patterns of climate change in the 9th and 5th millennia BP from TRACE-21 model simulations
Abrupt cold events in the North Atlantic Ocean in a transient Holocene simulation
Rapid increase in simulated North Atlantic dust deposition due to fast change of northwest African landscape during the Holocene
Evaluation of PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations of mid-Holocene climate in the Indo-Pacific, Australasian and Southern Ocean regions
Biome changes in Asia since the mid-Holocene – an analysis of different transient Earth system model simulations
Modeling precipitation δ18O variability in East Asia since the Last Glacial Maximum: temperature and amount effects across different timescales
Mid-to-late Holocene temperature evolution and atmospheric dynamics over Europe in regional model simulations
Effects of melting ice sheets and orbital forcing on the early Holocene warming in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere
The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene
The link between marine sediment records and changes in Holocene Saharan landscape: simulating the dust cycle
Stability of ENSO and its tropical Pacific teleconnections over the Last Millennium
Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes
The impact of Sahara desertification on Arctic cooling during the Holocene
Global climate simulations at 3000-year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean model
Reexamining the barrier effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the South Asian summer monsoon
Model–data comparison and data assimilation of mid-Holocene Arctic sea ice concentration
Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations
Mid-Holocene ocean and vegetation feedbacks over East Asia
A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 1: Model validation
Influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change and terrestrial carbon storage in the Last Glacial Maximum
Can an Earth System Model simulate better climate change at mid-Holocene than an AOGCM? A comparison study of MIROC-ESM and MIROC3
Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity
The sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes: a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulations
Model sensitivity to North Atlantic freshwater forcing at 8.2 ka
Using data assimilation to investigate the causes of Southern Hemisphere high latitude cooling from 10 to 8 ka BP
Last interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparison
The East Asian Summer Monsoon at mid-Holocene: results from PMIP3 simulations
Putian Zhou, Zhengyao Lu, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Qiong Zhang, Juha Lento, Jianpu Bian, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Markku Kulmala, Michael Boy, and Risto Makkonen
Clim. Past, 19, 2445–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A Green Sahara with enhanced rainfall and larger vegetation cover existed in northern Africa about 6000 years ago. Biosphere–atmosphere interactions are found to be critical to explaining this wet period. Based on modeled vegetation reconstruction data, we simulated dust emissions and aerosol formation, which are key factors in biosphere–atmosphere interactions. Our results also provide a benchmark of aerosol climatology for future paleo-climate simulation experiments.
Yibo Kang and Haijun Yang
Clim. Past, 19, 2013–2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2013-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2013-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated the climate difference between the mid-Holocene (MH) and the preindustrial (PI) periods and quantified the effects of Earth orbital parameters (ORBs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the climate difference. We think the insignificant difference in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation between the MH and PI periods has resulted from the competing effects of the ORBs and the GHGs on the climate.
Yuheng Li, Kanon Kino, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Taikan Oki
Clim. Past, 19, 1891–1904, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our study using the isotope-enabled climate model MIROC5-iso model shows that lakes may have contributed to the Green Sahara during the mid-Holocene period (6000 years ago). The lakes induced cyclonic circulation response, enhancing the near-surface monsoon westerly flow and potentially humidifying the northwestern Sahara with the stronger West African Monsoon moving northward. Our findings provide valuable insights into understanding the presence of the Green Sahara during this period.
Gustav Strandberg, Jie Chen, Ralph Fyfe, Erik Kjellström, Johan Lindström, Anneli Poska, Qiong Zhang, and Marie-José Gaillard
Clim. Past, 19, 1507–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate around 2500 years ago is studied using reconstructions and models. The results suggest that LULCC impacted the climate in parts of Europe. Reconstructed LULCC shows up to 1.5 °C higher temperature in parts of Europe in some seasons. This relatively strong response implies that anthropogenic LULCC that had occurred by the late prehistoric period may have already affected the European climate by 2500 years ago.
Chris Brierley, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Edward Grindrod, and Jonathan Barnsley
Clim. Past, 19, 681–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Year-to-year variations in the weather conditions over the Indian Ocean have important consequences for the substantial fraction of the Earth's population that live near it. This work looks at how these variations respond to climate change – both past and future. The models rarely agree, suggesting a weak, uncertain response to climate change.
Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Michael P. Nobis, Signe Normand, Catherine H. Graham, and Niklaus E. Zimmermann
Clim. Past, 19, 439–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present global monthly climate time series for air temperature and precipitation at 1 km resolution for the last 21 000 years. The topography at all time steps is created by combining high-resolution information on glacial cover from current and Last Glacial Maximum glacier databases with the interpolation of an ice sheet model and a coupling to mean annual temperatures from a global circulation model.
Frank Arthur, Didier M. Roche, Ralph Fyfe, Aurélien Quiquet, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past, 19, 87–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper simulates transcient Holocene climate in Europe by applying an interactive downscaling to the standard version of the iLOVECLIM model. The results show that downscaling presents a higher spatial variability in better agreement with proxy-based reconstructions as compared to the standard model, particularly in the Alps, the Scandes, and the Mediterranean. Our downscaling scheme is numerically cheap, which can perform kilometric multi-millennial simulations suitable for future studies.
Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
Clim. Past, 18, 2401–2420, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2401-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the hydrological changes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the mid-Holocene (MH; a period with warmer summers than today) will help us understand expected future changes. This study analyses the hydroclimates over the headwater regions of three major rivers originating on the TP using dynamically downscaled climate simulations. Model–data comparisons show that the dynamic downscaling significantly improves both the present-day and MH regional climate simulations of the TP.
Huan Li, Hans Renssen, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2303–2319, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In past warm periods, the Sahara region was covered by vegetation. In this paper we study transitions from this
greenstate to the desert state we find today. For this purpose, we have used a global climate model coupled to a vegetation model to perform transient simulations. We analyzed the model results to assess the effect of vegetation shifts on the abruptness of the transition. We find that the vegetation feedback was more efficient during the last interglacial than during the Holocene.
Nicky M. Wright, Claire E. Krause, Steven J. Phipps, Ghyslaine Boschat, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 18, 1509–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a major mode of climate variability. Proxy-based SAM reconstructions show changes that last millennium climate simulations do not reproduce. We test the SAM's sensitivity to solar forcing using simulations with a range of solar values and transient last millennium simulations with large-amplitude solar variations. We find that solar forcing can alter the SAM and that strong solar forcing transient simulations better match proxy-based reconstructions.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1035–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Palaeoenvironmental records only provide a fragmentary picture of the lake and wetland extent in North Africa during the mid-Holocene. Therefore, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes caused by an estimated small and maximum lake extent and a maximum wetland extent. Results show a particularly strong monsoon precipitation response to lakes and wetlands over the Western Sahara and an increased monsoon precipitation when replacing lakes with vegetated wetlands.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
Clim. Past, 17, 1645–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional climate simulations were constructed to more accurately capture regional features of the South and Southeast Asian monsoon during the mid-Holocene. Comparison with proxies shows that our high-resolution simulations outperform those with the coarser global model in reproducing the monsoon rainfall anomalies. Incorporating the Green Sahara climate conditions over northern Africa into our simulations further strengthens the monsoon precipitation and leads to better agreement with proxies.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Pascale Braconnot, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Anne Cozic, Masa Kageyama, Adriana Sima, Olivier Marti, and Jean-Yves Peterschmitt
Clim. Past, 17, 1091–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how mid-Holocene dust reduction affects the Earth’s energetics from a suite of climate simulations. Our analyses confirm the peculiar role of the dust radiative effect over bright surfaces such as African deserts. We highlight a strong dependence on the dust pattern. The relative dust forcing between West Africa and the Middle East impacts the relative response of Indian and African monsoons and between the western tropical Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional circulation.
Gabriele Messori and Davide Faranda
Clim. Past, 17, 545–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The palaeoclimate community must both analyse large amounts of model data and compare very different climates. Here, we present a seemingly very abstract analysis approach that may be fruitfully applied to palaeoclimate numerical simulations. This approach characterises the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics and is thus suited to face the above challenges.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Charles J. R. Williams, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Emilie Capron, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Joy S. Singarayer, Louise C. Sime, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 16, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from two simulations using the latest version of the UK's climate model, the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) and Last Interglacial (127 000 years ago). The simulations reproduce temperatures consistent with the pattern of incoming radiation. Model–data comparisons indicate that some regions (and some seasons) produce better matches to the data than others.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Anina Gilgen, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kühn, and Ulrike Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1885–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAM-SALSA, the effect of humans on European climate in the Roman Empire was quantified. Both land use and novel estimates of anthropogenic aerosol emissions were considered. We conducted simulations with fixed sea-surface temperatures to gain a first impression about the anthropogenic impact. While land use effects induced a regional warming for one of the reconstructions, aerosol emissions led to a cooling associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.
Pascale Braconnot, Dan Zhu, Olivier Marti, and Jérôme Servonnat
Clim. Past, 15, 997–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study discusses a simulation of the last 6000 years realized with a climate model in which the vegetation and carbon cycle are fully interactive. The long-term southward shift in Northern Hemisphere tree line and Afro-Asian monsoon rain are reproduced. The results show substantial change in tree composition with time over Eurasia and the role of trace gases in the recent past. They highlight the limitations due to model setup and multiple preindustrial vegetation states.
Mi Yan and Jian Liu
Clim. Past, 15, 265–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, 2019
Liang Ning, Jian Liu, Raymond S. Bradley, and Mi Yan
Clim. Past, 15, 41–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019, 2019
Andrea Klus, Matthias Prange, Vidya Varma, Louis Bruno Tremblay, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 14, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous proxy records from the northern North Atlantic suggest substantial climate variability including the occurrence of multi-decadal-to-centennial cold events during the Holocene. We analyzed two abrupt cold events in a Holocene simulation using a comprehensive climate model. It is shown that the events were ultimately triggered by prolonged phases of positive North Atlantic Oscillation causing changes in ocean circulation followed by severe cooling, freshening, and expansion of sea ice.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, and Christian Reick
Clim. Past, 14, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We find a rapid increase in simulated dust deposition between 6 and
4 ka BP that is fairly consistent with an abrupt change in dust deposition that was observed in marine sediment records at around 5 ka BP. This rapid change is caused by a rapid increase in simulated dust emissions in the western Sahara due to a fast decline in vegetation cover and a locally strong reduction of lake area. Our study identifies spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the transition of the North African landscape.
Duncan Ackerley, Jessica Reeves, Cameron Barr, Helen Bostock, Kathryn Fitzsimmons, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Chris Gouramanis, Helen McGregor, Scott Mooney, Steven J. Phipps, John Tibby, and Jonathan Tyler
Clim. Past, 13, 1661–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A selection of climate models have been used to simulate both pre-industrial (1750 CE) and mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) conditions. This study presents an assessment of the temperature, rainfall and flow over Australasia from those climate models. The model data are compared with available proxy data reconstructions (e.g. tree rings) for 6000 years ago to identify whether the models are reliable. Places where there is both agreement and conflict are highlighted and investigated further.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Jian Ni, Xianyong Cao, Yongbo Wang, Nils Fischer, Madlene Pfeiffer, Liya Jin, Vyacheslav Khon, Sebastian Wagner, Kerstin Haberkorn, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 13, 107–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The vegetation distribution in eastern Asia is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient climate simulations.
Xinyu Wen, Zhengyu Liu, Zhongxiao Chen, Esther Brady, David Noone, Qingzhao Zhu, and Jian Guan
Clim. Past, 12, 2077–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we challenge the usefulness of temperature effect and amount effect, the basic assumptions in past climate reconstruction using a stable water isotope proxy, in East Asia on multiple timescales. By modeling several time slices in the past 22 000 years using an isotope-enabled general circulation model, we suggest great caution when interpreting δ18O records in this area as indicators of surface temperature and/or local monsoonal precipitation, especially on a millennial timescale.
Emmanuele Russo and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 12, 1645–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we use a RCM for three different goals.
Proposing a model configuration suitable for paleoclimate studies; evaluating the added value of a regional climate model for paleoclimate studies; investigating temperature evolution of the European continent during mid-to-late Holocene.
Results suggest that the RCM seems to produce results in better agreement with reconstructions than its driving GCM. Simulated temperature evolution seems to be too sensitive to changes in insolation.
Yurui Zhang, Hans Renssen, and Heikki Seppä
Clim. Past, 12, 1119–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how forcings contributed to climate change during the early Holocene that marked the final transition to the warm and stable stage. Our results indicate that 1) temperature at the Holocene onset was lower than in the preindustrial over the northern extratropics with the exception in Alaska, and the magnitude of this cooling varies regionally as a response to varying climate forcings and diverse mechanisms, and 2) the rate of the early Holocene warming was also spatially heterogeneous.
M. Clare Smith, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, Jed O. Kaplan, and Nicholas P. Branch
Clim. Past, 12, 923–941, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We used climate modelling to estimate the biogeophysical impacts of agriculture on the climate over the last 8000 years of the Holocene. Our results show statistically significant surface temperature changes (mainly cooling) from as early as 7000 BP in the JJA season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3000 BP. The changes were greatest in the areas of land use change but were also seen in other areas. Precipitation was also affected, particularly in Europe, India, and the ITCZ region.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, Christian Reick, and Tanja Stanelle
Clim. Past, 12, 1009–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate for the first time the direct link between dust accumulation in marine sediment cores and Saharan land surface by simulating the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial dust cycle as a function of Saharan land surface cover and atmosphere-ocean conditions using the coupled atmosphere-aerosol model ECHAM6-HAM2.1. Mid-Holocene surface characteristics, including vegetation cover and lake surface area, are derived from proxy data and simulations.
S. C. Lewis and A. N. LeGrande
Clim. Past, 11, 1347–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, 2015
P. J. Bartlein, M. E. Edwards, S. W. Hostetler, S. L. Shafer, P. M. Anderson, L. B. Brubaker, and A. V. Lozhkin
Clim. Past, 11, 1197–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The ongoing warming of the Arctic is producing changes in vegetation and hydrology that, coupled with rising sea level, could mediate global changes. We explored this possibility using regional climate model simulations of a past interval of warming in Beringia and found that the regional-scale changes do strongly mediate the responses to global changes, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in climate change.
F. J. Davies, H. Renssen, M. Blaschek, and F. Muschitiello
Clim. Past, 11, 571–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, 2015
J. R. Alder and S. W. Hostetler
Clim. Past, 11, 449–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, 2015
G.-S. Chen, Z. Liu, and J. E. Kutzbach
Clim. Past, 10, 1269–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
A. Perez-Sanz, G. Li, P. González-Sampériz, and S. P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 10, 551–568, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, 2014
Z. Tian and D. Jiang
Clim. Past, 9, 2153–2171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, 2013
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1667–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, 2013
R. O'ishi and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 9, 1571–1587, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, 2013
R. Ohgaito, T. Sueyoshi, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Hajima, S. Watanabe, H.-J. Kim, A. Yamamoto, and M. Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 9, 1519–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
M. Berger, J. Brandefelt, and J. Nilsson
Clim. Past, 9, 969–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-969-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-969-2013, 2013
C. Morrill, A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 9, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, 2013
P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, 2013
P. Bakker, E. J. Stone, S. Charbit, M. Gröger, U. Krebs-Kanzow, S. P. Ritz, V. Varma, V. Khon, D. J. Lunt, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Prange, H. Renssen, B. Schneider, and M. Schulz
Clim. Past, 9, 605–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, 2013
W. Zheng, B. Wu, J. He, and Y. Yu
Clim. Past, 9, 453–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-453-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-453-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Aquila, V., Oman, L. D., Stolarski, R. S., Colarco, P. R., and Newman, P. A.: Dispersion of the volcanic sulfate cloud from a Mount Pinatubo-like eruption, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D06216, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016968, 2012.
Aquila, V., Oman, L. D., Stolarski, R., Douglass, A. R., and Newman, P. A.:
The Response of Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide to the Eruption of Mt. Pinatubo
at Southern and Northern Midlatitudes, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 894–900, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0143.1, 2013.
Bagnall, R. S. and Derow,P.: The Hellenistic Period: Historical Sources in Translation, in: The Hellenistic Period, New Edition, Blackwell, ISBN 978-1-405-10133-2, 2004.
Bauer, S. E., Wright, D. L., Koch, D., Lewis, E. R., McGraw, R., Chang, L.-S., Schwartz, S. E., and Ruedy, R.: MATRIX (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state): an aerosol microphysical module for global atmospheric models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 6003–6035, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-6003-2008, 2008.
Bauer, S. E., Ault, A., and Prather, K. A.: Evaluation of aerosol mixing state classes in the GISS modelE-MATRIX climate model using single-particle
mass spectrometry measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 9834–9844, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50700, 2013.
Bauer, S. E., Tsigaridis, K., Faluvegi, G., Kelley, M., Lo, K. K., Miller, R. L., Nazarenko, L., Schmidt, G. A., and Wu, J.: Historical (1850–2014) Aerosol Evolution and Role on Climate Forcing Using the GISS ModelE2.1
Contribution to CMIP6, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS001978, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001978, 2020.
Bell, B.: Climate and the History of Egypt: The Middle Kingdom, Am. J. Archaeol., 79, 223–269, 1975.
Blouin, J.: Defining and measuring tax planning aggressiveness, National Tax J., 67, 875–899, https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2014.4.06, 2014.
Bluth, G. J. S., Doiron, S. D., Schnetzler, C. C., Krueger, A. J., and Walter, L. S.: Global tracking of the SO2 clouds from the June, 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruptions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 151–154, https://doi.org/10.1029/91GL02792, 1992.
Bonneau, D.: Le fisc et le Nil. Incidences des irregularities de la crue du Nil sur la fiscalité dans L'Égypte Grecque et Romaine, Editions Cujas, 1971.
Braconnot, P., Joussaume, S., Marti, O., and de Noblet, N.: Synergistic
feedbacks from ocean and vegetation on the African Monsoon response to
Mid-Holocene insolation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2481–2484, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL006047, 1999.
Brenna, H., Kutterolf, S., Mills, M. J., and Krüger, K.: The potential
impacts of a sulfur- and halogen-rich supereruption such as Los Chocoyos on
the atmosphere and climate, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6521–6539,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6521-2020, 2020.
Broccoli, A. J., Dahl, K. A., and Stouffer, R. J.: Response of the ITCZ to
Northern Hemisphere cooling, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024546, 2006.
Butzer, K. W.: Early hydraulic civilization in Egypt: a study in cultural
ecology, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, London, 134 pp., ISBN 0-226-08635-6, 1976.
Butzer, K. W.: Long-term Nile flood variation and political discontinuities in pharaonic Egypt, in: From Hunters to Farmers: The Causes and Consequences of Food Production in Africa, edited by: Clark, J. D. and Brandt, S. A.,
Berkeley, 102–112, ISBN 9780520045743, 1984.
Campbell, B. M. S. and Ludlow, F.: Climate, Disease and Society in Late-Medieval Ireland, P. Roy. Irish Acad., 120C, 159–252, https://doi.org//10.3318/priac.2020.120.13, 2020.
Charney, J. G.: Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel, 101, 193–202,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710142802, 1975.
Chiang, J. C. H. and Bitz, C. M.: Influence of high latitude ice cover on the marine Intertropical Convergence Zone, Clim. Dynam., 25, 477–496,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0040-5, 2005.
Christiansen, B.: Volcanic Eruptions, Large-Scale Modes in the Northern
Hemisphere, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, J. Climate, 21, 910–922, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1657.1, 2008.
Claussen, M.: Late Quaternary vegetation-climate feedbacks, Clim. Past, 5, 203–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-203-2009, 2009.
Claussen, M., Brovkin, V., Ganopolski, A., Kubatzki, C., and Petoukhov, V.:
Climate Change in Northern Africa: The Past is Not the Future, Climatic
Change, 57, 99–118, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022115604225, 2003.
Cole-Dai, J.: Volcanoes and Climate, WIREs Clim. Change, 1, 824–839, 2010.
Colose, C. M., LeGrande, A. N., and Vuille, M.: Hemispherically asymmetric
volcanic forcing of tropical hydroclimate duringthe last millennium, Earth
Syst. Dynam., 7, 681–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-681-2016, 2016.
Crowley, T., Ga, Z., Vinther, B., Udisti, R., Kreutzs, K., Cole-Dai, J., and
Castellano, E.: Volcanism and the Little Ice Age, PAGES Newslett., 16, 22–23, https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.16.2.22, 2008.
D'Arrigo, R., Seager, R., Smerdon, J. E., LeGrande, A. N., and Cook, E. R.:
The anomalous winter of 1783–1784: Was the Laki eruption or an analog of
the 2009–2010 winter to blame?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046696, 2011.
Degroot, D., Anchukaitis, K., Bauch, M., Burnham, J., Carnegy, F., Cui, J.,
de Luna, K., Guzowski, P., Hambrecht, G., Huhtamaa, H., Izdebski, A., Kleemann, K., Moesswilde, E., Neupane, N., Newfield, T., Pei, Q., Xoplaki,
E., and Zappia, N.: Towards a rigorous understanding of societal responses
to climate change, Nature, 591, 539–550, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03190-2, 2021.
Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V., and Teng, H.: Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability, Clim. Dynam., 38, 527–546, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x, 2012.
Dogar, M. M.: Impact of Tropical Volcanic Eruptions on Hadley Circulation
Using a High-Resolution AGCM, Current Sci., 114, 1284, https://doi.org/10.18520/cs/v114/i06/1284-1294, 2018.
Dove, M. R.: Anthropology of Climate Change, in: Environmental Sociology, Wiley & Sons, Chichester, ISBN 978-1-118-38355-1, 2014.
Drake, B. L.: The Influence of Climatic Change on the Late Bronze Age Collapse and the Greek Dark Ages, J. Archaeolog. Sci., 39, 1862–1870, 2012.
English, J. M., Toon, O. B., and Mills, M. J.: Microphysical simulations of
large volcanic eruptions: Pinatubo and Toba, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1880–1895, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50196, 2013.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R.
J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9,
1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Fischer, E. M., Luterbacher, J., Zorita, E., Tett, S. F. B., Casty, C., and
Wanner, H.: European climate response to tropical volcanic eruptions over
the last half millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027992, 2007.
Fujiwara, M., Hibino, T., Mehta, S. K., Gray, L., Mitchell, D., and Anstey,
J.: Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple
reanalysis data sets, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13507–13518,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13507-2015, 2015.
Gao, C., Ludlow, F., Matthews, A., Stine, A. R., Robock, A., Pan, Y., Breen,
R., and Sigl, M.: Volcanic Climate Impacts Can Act as Ultimate and Proximate Causes of Chinese Dynastic Collapse, Commun. Earth Environ., 2, 234, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00284-7, 2021.
Gao, F., Morisette, J. T., Wolfe, R. E., Ederer, G., Pedelty, J., Masuoka,
E., Myneni, R., Tan, B., and Nightingale, J.: An Algorithm to Produce Temporally and Spatially Continuous MODIS-LAI Time Series, IEEE Geosci. Remote Sens. Lett., 5, 60–64, https://doi.org/10.1109/LGRS.2007.907971, 2008.
Gillett, N. P., Weaver, A. J., Zwiers, F. W., and Wehner, M. F.: Detection
of volcanic influence on global precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L12217, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020044, 2004.
Graf, H.-F.: Arctic radiation deficit and climate variability, Clim. Dynam., 7, 19–28, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00204818, 1992.
Graf, H.-F., Kirchner, I., Robock, A., and Schult, I.: Pinatubo eruption
winter climate effects: model versus observations, Clim. Dynam., 9, 81–93, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00210011, 1993.
Graf, H.-F., Li, Q., and Giorgetta, M. A.: Volcanic effects on climate:
revisiting the mechanisms, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 4503–4511,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-4503-2007, 2007.
Grainger, J.: The Syrian Wars, Brill, ISBN 978-90-04-18831-0, 2010.
Gu, G. and Adler, R. F.: Precipitation and Temperature Variations on the
Interannual Time Scale: Assessing the Impact of ENSO and Volcanic Eruptions,
J. Climate, 24, 2258–2270, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3727.1, 2011.
Guillet, S., Corona, C., Ludlow, F., Oppenheimer, C., and Stoffel, M.: Climatic and societal impacts of a “forgotten” cluster of volcanic eruptions in 1108–1110 CE, Sci. Rep., 10, 6715, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-63339-3, 2020.
Guo, S., Bluth, G. J. S., Rose, W. I., Watson, I. M., and Prata, A. J.:
Re-evaluation of SO2 release of the 15 June 1991 Pinatubo eruption using ultraviolet and infrared satellite sensors, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 5, Q04001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GC000654, 2004.
Hansen, J., Lacis, A., Ruedy, R., and Sato, M.: Potential climate impact of
Mount Pinatubo eruption, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 215–218, https://doi.org/10.1029/91GL02788, 1992.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., Lacis, A., Asamoah, K., Borenstein, S., Brown, E., Cairns, B., Caliri, G., Campbell, M., Curran, B., de Castro, S., Druyan, L., Fox, M., Johnson, C., Lerner, J., McCormick, M. P., Miller, R., Minnis, P., Morrison, A., Pandolfo, L., Ramberrann, I., Zaucker, F., Robinson, M., Russell, P., Shah, K., Stone, P., Tegen, I., Thomason, L., Wilder, J., and Wilson, H.: A Pinatubo Climate Modeling Investigation, in: The Mount Pinatubo Eruption, NATO ASI Series, vol. 42, edited by: Fiocco, G., Fuà, D., and Visconti, G., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61173-5_20, 1996.
Hansen, J. E., Lacis, A. A., Lee, P., and Wang, W.-C.: Climatic Effects of
Atmospheric Aerosols, Ann. NY Acad. Sci., 338, 575–587,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-6632.1980.tb17151.x, 1980.
Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Izumi, K., Li, G., Annan, J., Hargreaves, J., Braconnot, P., and Kageyama, M.: Evaluation of CMIP5 palaeo-simulations to improve climate projections, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 735–743,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2649, 2015.
Hassan, F. A.: The Dynamics of a Riverine Civilization: A Geoarchaeological Perspective on the Nile Valley, Egypt, World Archaeol., 29, 51–74, 1997a.
Hassan, F. A.: Nile Floods and Political Disorder in Early Egypt, in: Third
Millennium BC Climate Change and Old World Collapse, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-60616-8_1, 1997b.
Hassan, F. A.: Extreme Nile floods and famines in Medieval Egypt (AD 930–1500) and their climatic implications, Quatern. Int., 173–174, 101–112, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2007.06.001, 2007.
Haywood, J. M., Jones, A., Bellouin, N., and Stephenson, D.: Asymmetric
forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall, Nat. Clim.
Change, 3, 660–665, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1857, 2013.
Hewitt, C. D. and Mitchell, J. F. B.: A fully coupled GCM simulation of the
climate of the mid-Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 361–364, https://doi.org/10.1029/97GL03721, 1998.
Hölbl, G.: A History of the Ptolemaic Empire, Routledge, ISBN 9780415234894, 2001.
Hsiang, S. M. and Burke, M.: Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?, Climatic Change, 123, 39–55, 2014.
Huhtamaa, H., Stoffel, M., and Corona, C.: Recession or resilience? Long-range socioeconomic consequences of the 17th century volcanic eruptions in northern Fennoscandia, Clim. Past, 18, 2077–2092, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2077-2022, 2022.
Ide, T.: Research methods for exploring the links between climate change and conflict, WIREs Clim. Change, 8, e456, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.456, 2017.
Iles, C. E. and Hegerl, G. C.: The global precipitation response to volcanic
eruptions in the CMIP5 models, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 104012,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104012, 2014.
Iles, C. E., Hegerl, G. C., Schurer, A. P., and Zhang, X.: The effect of
volcanic eruptions on global precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 8770–8786, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50678, 2013.
Ito, G., Romanou, A., Kiang, N. Y., Faluvegi, G., Aleinov, I., Ruedy, R.,
Russell, G., Lerner, P., Kelley, M., and Lo, K.: Global Carbon Cycle and
Climate Feedbacks in the NASA GISS ModelE2.1, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS002030, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002030, 2020.
Izdebski, A., Bloomfield, K., Eastwood, W. J., Fernandes, R., Fleitmann, D.,
Guzowski, P., Haldon, J., Ludlow, F., Luterbacher, J., Manning, J. G., Masi,
A., Mordechai, L., Newfield, T., Stine, A. R., Senkul, C., and Xoplaki, E.: The Emergence of Interdisciplinary Environmental History: Bridging the Gap between the Humanistic and Scientific Approaches to the Late Holocene, Annales, 77, 11–58, https://doi.org/10.1017/ahss.2022.114, 2022.
Jacobson, T. W. P., Yang, W., Vecchi, G. A., and Horowitz, L. W.: Impact of
volcanic aerosol hemispheric symmetry on Sahel rainfall, Clim. Dynam., 55,
1733–1758, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05347-7, 2020.
Joseph, R. and Zeng, N.: Seasonally Modulated Tropical Drought Induced by
Volcanic Aerosol, J. Climate, 24, 2045–2060, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3170.1, 2011.
Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J., Timmreck, C., Reick, C. H., Brovkin, V., Six, K., Segschneider, J., Giorgetta, M. A., Crowley, T. J., Pongratz, J.,
Krivova, N. A., Vieira, L. E., Solanki, S. K., Klocke, D., Botzet, M., Esch,
M., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Raddatz, T. J., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., Widmann,
H., Claussen, M., Stevens, B., and Marotzke, J.: Climate and carbon-cycle
variability over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 6, 723–737,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-723-2010, 2010.
Kelley, M., Schmidt, G. A., Nazarenko, L. S., Bauer, S. E., Ruedy, R.,
Russell, G. L., Ackerman, A. S., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bleck, R., Canuto,
V., Cesana, G., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Cook, B. I., Cruz, C. A., Genio, A.
D. D., Elsaesser, G. S., Faluvegi, G., Kiang, N. Y., Kim, D., Lacis, A. A.,
Leboissetier, A., LeGrande, A. N., Lo, K. K., Marshall, J., Matthews, E. E.,
McDermid, S., Mezuman, K., Miller, R. L., Murray, L. T., Oinas, V., Orbe,
C., García-Pando, C. P., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Rind, D.,
Romanou, A., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Tausnev, N., Tsigaridis, K.,
Tselioudis, G., Weng, E., Wu, J., and Yao, M.-S.: GISS-E2.1: Configurations
and Climatology, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS002025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002025, 2020.
Khodri, M., Izumo, T., Vialard, J., Janicot, S., Cassou, C., Lengaigne, M.,
Mignot, J., Gastineau, G., Guilyardi, E., Lebas, N., Robock, A., and McPhaden, M. J.: Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa, Nat. Commun., 8, 778,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00755-6, 2017.
Kiang, N. Y.: Description of the NASA GISS vegetation dynamics model, Tech. rep., NASA, https://www.giss.nasa.gov/projects/ent/ (last access: 21 January 2023), 2012.
Kilian, M., Brinkop, S., and Jöckel, P.: Impact of the eruption of Mt
Pinatubo on the chemical composition of the stratosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11697–11715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11697-2020, 2020.
Kim, Y., Moorcroft, P. R., Aleinov, I., Puma, M. J., and Kiang, N. Y.: Variability of phenology and fluxes of water and carbon with observed and simulated soil moisture in the Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM version 1.0.1.0.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3837–3865, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3837-2015, 2015.
Kirtman, B., Power, S. B., Adedoyin, A. J., Boer, G. J., Bojariu, R.,
Camilloni, I., Doblas-Reyes, F., Fiore, A. M., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G., Prather, M., Sarr, A., Schar, C., Sutton, R., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vecchi,
G., and Wang, H.-J.: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability, in: book section 11, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 953–1028, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.023, 2013.
Klocke, D.: Assessing the uncertainty in climate sensitivity, PhD Thesis, Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung, 95, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, https://doi.org/10.17617/2.1217565, 2011.
Knapp, A. B.and Manning, S. W.: Crisis in Context: The End of the Late Bronze
Age in the Eastern Mediterranean, Am. J. Archaeol., 120, 99–149, 2016.
Kostiæ, S., Stojkoviæ, M., Prohaska, S., and Vasoviæ, N.:
Modeling of river flow rate as a function of rainfall and temperature using
response surface methodology based on historical time series, J. Hydroinform., 18, 651–665, https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2016.153, 2016.
Kutzbach, J., Bonan, G., Foley, J., and Harrison, S. P.: Vegetation and soil
feedbacks on the response of the African monsoon to orbital forcing in the
early to middle Holocene, Nature, 384, 623–626, https://doi.org/10.1038/384623a0, 1996.
Kutzbach, J. E. and Liu, Z.: Response of the African Monsoon to Orbital
Forcing and Ocean Feedbacks in the Middle Holocene, Science, 278, 440–443,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.278.5337.440, 1997.
Labitzke, K. and McCormick, M. P.: Stratospheric temperature increases due
to Pinatubo aerosols, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 207–210, https://doi.org/10.1029/91GL02940, 1992.
Lacis, A., Hansen, J., and Sato, M.: Climate forcing by stratospheric aerosols, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 1607–1610, https://doi.org/10.1029/92GL01620, 1992.
Larrasoaña, J. C., Roberts, A. P., and Rohling, E. J.: Dynamics of Green
Sahara Periods and Their Role in Hominin Evolution, PLOS ONE, 8, e76514,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0076514, 2013.
LeGrande, A. N., Tsigaridis, K., and Bauer, S. E.: Role of atmospheric chemistry in the climate impacts of stratospheric volcanic injections, Nat. Geosci., 9, 652–655, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2771, 2016.
Liu, F., Chai, J., Wang, B., Liu, J., Zhang, X., and Wang, Z.: Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions, Sci. Rep., 6, 24331, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep24331, 2016.
Ljungqvist, F. C., Seim, A. and Huhtamaa, H.: Climate and Society in
European History, WIRE's Clim. Change, 12, e691, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.691, 2021.
Ludlow, F. and Crampsie, A.: Climate, Debt and Conflict: Environmental History as a New Direction in Understanding Early Modern Ireland, in: Early
Modern Ireland: New Sources, Methods, and Directions, edited by: Covington, S., Carey, V., and McGowan-Doyle, V., Routledge, London, 269–300, eISBN 9781351243018, 2019.
Ludlow, F. and Manning, J. G. in Revolt and resistance in the Ancient Classical World and the Near East: The crucible of empire, edited by: Collins, J. J. and Manning, J. G., Brill, 154–171, https://doi.org/10.1163/9789004330184_011, 2016.
Ludlow, F. and Manning, J. G. in Climate Change and Ancient Societies in
Europe and the Near East: Diversity in Collapse and Resilience, edited by: Erdkamp, P., Manning, J. G., and Verboven, K.), Palgrave Macmillan, 301–320, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-81103-7_10, 2021.
Ludlow, F. and Travis, C.: STEAM Approaches to Climate Change, Extreme Weather and Social-Political Conflict, in: The STEAM Revolution: Transdisciplinary Approaches to Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, Humanities and Mathematics, edited by: de la Garza, A. and Travis, C., Springer, New York, 33–65, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-89818-6_3, 2019.
Ludlow, F., Stine, A. R., Leahy, P., Murphy, E., Mayewski, P., Taylor, D.,
Killen, J., Baillie, M., Hennessy, M., and Kiely, G.: Medieval Irish Chronicles Reveal Persistent Volcanic Forcing of Severe Winter Cold Events,
431–1649 CE, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, L024035, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024035, 2013.
Ludlow, F., Kostick, C., and Morris, C.: Climate, Violence and Ethnic Conflict in the Ancient World, in: The Cambridge World History of Genocide, edited by: Kiernan, B., Lemos, T. M., and Taylor, T., Cambridge University Press, in press, 2023.
Mackay, H., Plunkett, G., Jensen, B., Aubry, T., Corona, C., Mi Kim, W.,
Toohey, M., Sigl, M., Stoffel, M., Anchukaitis, K., Raible, C., Bolton, M.,
Manning, J., Newfield, T., di Cosmo, N., Ludlow, F., Kostick, C., Yang, Z.,
Coyle McClung, L., Amesbury, M., Monteath, A., Hughes, P., Langdon, P.,
Charman, D., Booth, R., Davies, K., Blundell, A., and Swindles, G.: The
Manning, J. G.: Land and Power in Ptolemaic Egypt: The Structure of Land
Tenure, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 9780511482847,
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511482847, 2003.
Manning, J. G., Ludlow, F., Stine, A. R., Boos, W. R., Sigl, M., and Marlon,
J. R.: Volcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt, Nat. Commun., 8, 900,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00957-y, 2017.
Manning, J. G.: The Open Sea: The Economic Life of the Ancient Mediterranean
World from the Iron Age to the Rise of Rome, Princeton University Press, Princeton, ISBN 9780691151748, 2018.
McConnell, J. R., Sigl, M., Plunkett, G., Burke, A., Kim, W. M., Raible, C.
C., Wilson, A. I., Manning, J. G., Ludlow, F., Chellman, N. J., Innes, H.
M., Yang, Z., Larsen, J. F., Schaefer, J. R., Kipfstuhl, S., Mojtabavi, S.,
Wilhelms, F., Opel, T., Meyer, H., and Steffensen, J. P.: Extreme climate
after massive eruption of Alaska's Okmok volcano in 43 BCE and effects on the late Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117,
15443–15449, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2002722117, 2020.
McCormick, M.: History's changing climate: Climate science, genomics and the
emerging consilient approach to interdisciplinary history, J. Interdisciplin. Hist., 42, 252–273, 2011.
McCormick, M.: The Ancient Mediterranean Environment between Science and History, edited by: Harris, W. V., Brill, 61–88, https://doi.org/10.1163/9789004254053_005, 2013.
McCormick, M.: Climates of History, Histories of Climate: From History to
Archaeoscience, J. Interdisciplin. Hist., 50, 3–30, 2019.
McCormick, M. P., Thomason, L. W., and Trepte, C. R.: Atmospheric effects of
the Mt Pinatubo eruption, Nature, 373, 399–404, https://doi.org/10.1038/373399a0, 1995.
McGing, B. C.: Revolt Egyptian style: Internal opposition to Ptolemaic rule, Arch. Papyrusforsch., 43, 274–277, 1997.
Melesse, A. M., Bekele, S., and McCornick, P.: Introduction: Hydrology of the Niles in the Face of Climate and Land-Use Dynamics, in: Nile River Basin: Hydrology, Climate and Water Use, vii–xvii, edited by: Melesse, A. F., Springer, ISBN 978-94-007-0689-7, 2011.
Mikhail, A.: Ottoman Iceland: A climate history, Environ. Hist., 20, 262–284, 2015.
Miller, R. L., Schmidt, G. A., Nazarenko, L. S., Bauer, S. E., Kelley, M.,
Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Ackerman, A. S., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bleck,
R., Canuto, V., Cesana, G., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Cook, B. I., Cruz, C. A., Del Genio, A. D., Elsaesser, G. S., Faluvegi, G., Kiang, N. Y., Kim, D., Lacis, A. A., Leboissetier, A., LeGrande, A. N., Lo, K. K., Marshall, J., Matthews, E. E., McDermid, S., Mezuman, K., Murray, L. T., Oinas, V., Orbe, C., Pérez García-Pando, C., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Tausnev, N., Tsigaridis, K., Tselioudis, G., Weng, E., Wu, J., and Yao, M. S.: CMIP6 Historical
Simulations (1850–2014) With GISS-E2.1, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 13,
e2019MS002034, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002034, 2021.
Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Bréon, F.-M., Collins, W., Fuglestvedt, J.,
Huang, J., Koch, D., Lamarque, J.-F., Lee, D., Mendoza, B., Nakajima, T., Robock, A., Stephens, G., Takemura, T., and Zhang, H.: Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Doschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, 659–740, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.018, 2013.
Myneni, R. B., Hoffman, S., Knyazikhin, Y., Privette, J. L., Glassy, J.,
Tian, Y., Wang, Y., Song, X., Zhang, Y., Smith, G. R., Lotsch, A., Friedl,
M., Morisette, J. T., Votava, P., Nemani, R. R., and Running, S. W.: Global
products of vegetation leaf area and fraction absorbed PAR from year one of
MODIS data, Remote Sens. Environ., 83, 214–231, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(02)00074-3, 2002.
Nazarenko, L. S., Tausnev, N., Russell, G. L., Rind, D., Miller, R. L., Schmidt, G. A., Bauer, S. E., Kelley, M., Ruedy, R., Ackerman, A. S., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Cesana, G., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Cook, B. I., Cruz, C. A., Del Genio, A. D., Elsaesser, G. S.,
Faluvegi, G., Kiang, N. Y., Kim, D., Lacis, A. A., Leboissetier, A., LeGrande, A. N., Lo, K. K., Marshall, J., Matthews, E. E., McDermid, S., Mezuman, K., Murray, L. T., Oinas, V., Orbe, C., Pérez García-Pando, C., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Romanou, A., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S.,
Tsigaridis, K., Tselioudis, G., Weng, E., Wu, J., and Yao, M.-S.: Future
Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios With GISS-E2.1, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 14, e2021MS002871, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002871, 2022.
Oman, L., Robock, A., Stenchikov, G., Schmidt, G. A., and Ruedy, R.: Climatic response to high-latitude volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D13103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005487, 2005.
Oman, L., Robock, A., Stenchikov, G. L., Thordarson, T., Koch, D., Shindell,
D. T., and Gao, C.: Modeling the distribution of the volcanic aerosol cloud
from the 1783–1784 Laki eruption, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12209,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006899, 2006.
Otterman, J.: Baring High-Albedo Soils by Overgrazing: A Hypothesized
Desertification Mechanism, Science, 186, 531–533, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.186.4163.531, 1974.
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Lunt, D. J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albani, S., Bartlein, P. J., Capron, E., Carlson, A. E., Dutton, A., Fischer, H., Goelzer, H., Govin, A., Haywood, A., Joos, F., LeGrande, A. N., Lipscomb, W. H., Lohmann, G., Mahowald, N., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Pausata, F. S. R., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Phipps, S. J., Renssen, H., and Zhang, Q.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 2: Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium: Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era, Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017.
PAGES 2k Consortium: Continental-scale temperature variability during the
past two millennia, Nat. Geosci., 6, 339–346, 2013.
PAGES 2k Consortium: A global database for temperature reconstructions of
the Common Era, Scient. Data, 4, 170088, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.88, 2017.
Parker, D. E., Wilson, H., Jones, P. D., Christy, J. R., and Folland, C. K.:
The Impact of Mount Pinatubo on World-Wide Temperatures, Int. J. Climatol., 16, 487–497,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199605)16:5<487::AID-JOC39>3.0.CO;2-J, 1996.
Pausata, F. S. R., Chafik, L., Caballero, R., and Battisti, D. S.: Impacts of high-latitude volcanic eruptions on ENSO and AMOC, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 13784–13788, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1509153112, 2015.
Pausata, F. S. R., Messori, G., and Zhang, Q.: Impacts of dust reduction on
the northward expansion of the African monsoon during the Green Sahara
period, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 434, 298–307, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.11.049, 2016.
Peterson, L. C., Haug, G. H., Hughen, K. A., and Röhl, U.: Rapid Changes
in the Hydrologic Cycle of the Tropical Atlantic During the Last Glacial,
Science, 290, 1947–1951, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.290.5498.1947, 2000.
Pitari, G. and Mancini, E.: Short-term climatic impact of the 1991 volcanic
eruption of Mt. Pinatubo and effects on atmospheric tracers, Nat. Hazards
Earth Syst. Sci., 2, 91–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2-91-2002, 2002.
Pitari, G., Cionni, I., Di Genova, G., Visioni, D., Gandolfi, I., and Mancini, E.: Impact of Stratospheric Volcanic Aerosols on Age-of-Air and
Transport of Long-Lived Species, Atmosphere, 7, 149, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos7110149, 2016.
Polvani, L. M. and Camargo, S. J.: Scant evidence for a volcanically forced
winter warming over Eurasia following the Krakatau eruption of August 1883,
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13687–13700, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13687-2020, 2020.
Rachmayani, R., Prange, M., and Schulz, M.: North African vegetation–precipitation feedback in early and mid-Holocene climate simulations with CCSM3-DGVM, Clim. Past, 11, 175–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-175-2015, 2015.
Rao, M. P., Cook, B. I., Cook, E. R., D'Arrigo, R. D., Krusic, P. J.,
Anchukaitis, K. J., LeGrande, A. N., Buckley, B. M., Davi, N. K., Leland, C., and Griffin, K. L.: European and Mediterranean hydroclimate responses to tropical volcanic forcing over the last millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 5104–5112, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073057, 2017.
Read, W. G., Froidevaux, L., and Waters, J. W.: Microwave limb sounder
measurement of stratospheric SO2 from the Mt. Pinatubo Volcano, Geophys. Res. Lett., 20, 1299–1302, https://doi.org/10.1029/93GL00831, 1993.
Robock, A.: Volcanic eruptions and climate, Rev. Geophys., 38, 191–219, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998RG000054, 2000.
Robock, A. and Liu, Y.: The Volcanic Signal in Goddard Institute for Space
Studies Three-Dimensional Model Simulations, J. Climate, 7, 44–55, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<0044:TVSIGI>2.0.CO;2, 1994.
Robock, A. and Mao, J.: Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 2405–2408, https://doi.org/10.1029/92GL02627, 1992.
Robock, A. and Mao, J.: The Volcanic Signal in Surface Temperature Observations, J. Climate, 8, 1086–1103,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1086:TVSIST>2.0.CO;2, 1995.
Russell, P. B., Livingston, J. M., Pueschel, R. F., Bauman, J. J., Pollack,
J. B., Brooks, S. L., Hamill, P., Thomason, L. W., Stowe, L. L., Deshler, T., Dutton, E. G., and Bergstrom, R. W.: Global to microscale evolution of the Pinatubo volcanic aerosol derived from diverse measurements and analyses, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 18745–18763, https://doi.org/10.1029/96JD01162, 1996.
Sabzevari, A. A., Zarenistanak, M., Tabari, H., and Moghimi, S.: Evaluation
of precipitation and river discharge variations over southwestern Iran during recent decades, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 124, 335–352, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-015-0549-x, 2015.
Said, R.: The River Nile: Geology, Hydrology and Utilization, Pergamon Press, Oxford, p. 320, ISBN 0 08 041886 4, 1993.
Schmidt, A., Carslaw, K. S., Mann, G. W., Wilson, M., Breider, T. J.,
Pickering, S. J., and Thordarson, T.: The impact of the 1783–1784 AD Laki
eruption on global aerosol formation processes and cloud condensation
nuclei, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 6025–6041, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-6025-2010, 2010.
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P.,
Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for
use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev.,
4, 33–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-33-2011, 2011.
Schneider, A. W. and Adali, S. F.: No Harvest was Reaped: Demographic and
Climatic Factors in the Decline of the Neo-Assyrian Empire, Climatic Change,
127, 435–446, 2014.
Schneider, D. P., Ammann, C. M., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Kaufman, D. S.:
Climate response to large, high-latitude and low-latitude volcanic eruptions
in the Community Climate System Model, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D15101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011222, 2009.
Schnetzler, C. C., Krueger, A. J., Bluth, G. S., Sprod, I. E., and Walter, L. S.: Comment on the Paper “The atmospheric SO2 budget for Pinatubo derived from NOAA-11 SBUV/2 spectral data” by R. D. McPeters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 22, 315–316, https://doi.org/10.1029/94GL02406, 1995.
Shindell, D. T.: Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic
eruptions since 1600, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D05104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004151, 2004.
Shindell, D. T., Faluvegi, G., Unger, N., Aguilar, E., Schmidt, G. A., Koch,
D. M., Bauer, S. E., and Miller, R. L.: Simulations of preindustrial, present-day, and 2100 conditions in the NASA GISS composition and climate
model G-PUCCINI, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6, 4427–4459, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-4427-2006, 2006.
Sigl, M., Winstrup, M., McConnell, J. R., Welten, K. C., Plunkett, G., Ludlow, F., Büntgen, U., Caffee, M., Chellman, N., Dahl-Jensen, D., Fischer, H., Kipfstuhl, S., Kostick, C., Maselli, O. J., Mekhaldi, F.,
Mulvaney, R., Muscheler, R., Pasteris, D. R., Pilcher, J. R., Salzer, M.,
Schüpbach, S., Steffensen, J. P., Vinther, B. M., and Woodruff, T. E.:
Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years,
Nature, 523, 543–549, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14565, 2015.
Simard, M., Pinto, N., Fisher, J. B., and Baccini, A.: Mapping forest canopy
height globally with spaceborne lidar, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 116, G04021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JG001708, 2011.
Singh, R. and AchutaRao, K.: Quantifying uncertainty in twenty-first century
climate change over India, Clim. Dynam., 52, 3905–3928,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4361-6, 2019.
Singh, R., LeGrande, A. N., and Tsigaridis, K.: Influence of regional
anthropogenic changes over Nile region on the climate system during the late
Holocene (∼2500 years before present), in: EGU General Assembly 2020, 4–8 May 2020, Online, EGU2020-12338, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12338, 2020.
Solway, J. S.: Drought as a Revelatory Crisis: An Exploration of Shifting
Entitlements and Hierarchies in the Kalahari, Botswana, Dev. Change, 25, 471–495, 1994.
Sołtysiak, A. : Drought and the Fall of Assyria: Quite Another Story, Climatic Change, 136, 389–394, 2016.
Staunton-Sykes, J., Aubry, T. J., Shin, Y. M., Weber, J., Marshall, L. R.,
Luke Abraham, N., Archibald, A., and Schmidt, A.: Co-emission of volcanic
sulfur and halogens amplifies volcanic effective radiative forcing, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9009–9029, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9009-2021, 2021.
Stenchikov, G.: Chapter 26 – The Role of Volcanic Activity in Climate and
Global Change, in: Climate Change, in: 2nd Edn.), edited by: Letcher, T. M., Elsevier, Boston, 419–447, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-63524-2.00026-9, 2016.
Stoffel, M., Corona, C., Ludlow, F., Sigl, M., Huhtamaa, H., Garnier, E., Helama, S., Guillet, S., Crampsie, A., Kleemann, K., Camenisch, C., McConnell, J., and Gao, C.: Climatic, weather, and socio-economic conditions corresponding to the mid-17th-century eruption cluster, Clim. Past, 18, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1083-2022, 2022.
Swingedouw, D., Mignot, J., Ortega, P., Khodri, M., Menegoz, M., Cassou, C.,
and Hanquiez, V.: Impact of explosive volcanic eruptions on the main climate
variability modes, Global Planet. Change, 150, 24–45,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.01.006, 2017.
Tardif, R., Hakim, G. J., Perkins, W. A., Horlick, K. A., Erb, M. P., Emile-Geay, J., Anderson, D. M., Steig, E. J., and Noone, D.: Last Millennium Reanalysis with an expanded proxy database and seasonal proxy modeling, Clim. Past, 15, 1251–1273, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1251-2019, 2019.
Thordarson, T.: Atmospheric and environmental effects of the 1783–1784 Laki
eruption: A review and reassessment, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4011,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD002042, 2003.
Thordarson, T. and Self, S.: Atmospheric and environmental effects of the 1783–1784 Laki eruption: A review and reassessment, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD002042, 2003.
Tierney, J. E., Pausata, F. S. R., and deMenocal, P. B.: Rainfall regimes of
the Green Sahara, Sci. Adv., 3, e1601503, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601503, 2017.
Timmreck, C.: Modeling the climatic effects of large explosive volcanic
eruptions, Wiley Interdisciplin. Rev.: Clim. Change, 3, 545–564, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.192, 2012.
Timmreck, C., Lorenz, S. J., Crowley, T. J., Kinne, S., Raddatz, T. J., Thomas, M. A., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Limited temperature response to the very large AD 1258 volcanic eruption, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040083, 2009.
Timmreck, C., Graf, H.-F., Lorenz, S. J., Niemeier, U., Zanchettin, D., Matei, D., Jungclaus, J. H., and Crowley, T. J.: Aerosol size confines
climate response to volcanic super-eruptions, Geohys. Res. Lett., 37, L24705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045464, 2010.
Tiwari, S., Ramos, R., Pausata, F. S. R., LeGrande, A. N., Griffiths, M. L.,
Beltrami, H., Chandan, D., de Vernal, A., Litchmore, D., Peltier, R., and
Tabor, C. R.: Model performance in simulating the mid-Holocene Green Sahara,
in: EGU General Assembly 2022, 23–27 May 2022, Vienna, Austria, EGU22-3233,
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3233, 2022.
Toohey, M. and Sigl, M.: Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth from 500 BCE to 1900 CE, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 809–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-809-2017, 2017.
Toohey, M., Krüger, K., Niemeier, U., and Timmreck, C.: The influence of
eruption season on the global aerosol evolution and radiative impact of
tropical volcanic eruptions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 12351–12367,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-12351-2011, 2011.
Toohey, M., Krüger, K., Sigl, M., Stordal, F., and Svensen, H.: Climatic
and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle
Ages, Climatic Change, 136, 401–412, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1648-7, 2016.
Toohey, M., Krüger, K., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C., Sigl, M., Stoffel, M., and Wilson, R.: Disproportionately strong climate forcing from extratropical explosive volcanic eruptions, Nat. Geosci., 12, 100–107, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0286-2, 2019.
Travis, C., Holm, P., Ludlow, F., Kostick, C., McGovern, R., and Nicholls, J.: Cowboys, Cod, Climate and Conflict: Navigations in the Digital Environmental Humanities, in: Routledge Handbook of the Digital
Environmental Humanities, edited by: Travis, C., Legg, R., Bergmann, L.,
Crampsie, A., and Dixon, D., Routledge, London, 17–39, https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003082798-3, 2022.
Trenberth, K. E. and Dai, A.: Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on
the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering: Pinatubo And The Hydrological Cycle, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L15702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030524, 2007.
Trepte, C. R. and Hitchman, M. H.: Tropical stratospheric circulation deduced from satellite aerosol data, Nature, 355, 626–628, https://doi.org/10.1038/355626a0, 1992.
van Bavel, B. J. P., Curtis, D. R., Hannaford, M. J., Moatsos, M., Roosen, J., and Soens, T.: Climate and society in long-term perspective: Opportunities and pitfalls in the use of historical datasets, Wires Clim. Change, 10, e611, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.611, 2019.
Vehkamäki, H., Kulmala, M., Napari, I., Lehtinen, K. E. J., Timmreck, C., Noppel, M., and Laaksonen, A.: An improved parameterization for sulfuric acid–water nucleation rates for tropospheric and stratospheric conditions,
J. Geohys. Res., 107, AAC 3-1–AAC 3-10, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002184, 2002.
Veïsse, A.-E.: Les révoltes égyptiennes: recherches sur les
troubles intérieurs en Égypte du règne de Ptolémée III
à la conquête romaine, Peeters, Leuven, Paris, Dudley, MA, ISBN 9042913991, 2004.
Vörösmarty, C. J., Fekete, B. M., and Tucker, B. A.: Global River
Discharge, 1807–1991, V. 1.1 (RivDIS), Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, http://www.daac.ornl.gov (last access: 20 December 2022), 1998.
Wahl, E. R., Diaz, H. F., Smerdon, J. E., and Ammann, C. M.: Late winter
temperature response to large tropical volcanic eruptions in temperate western North America: Relationship to ENSO phases, Global Planet. Change, 122, 238–250, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.005, 2014.
White, S. and Pei, Q.: Attribution of historical societal impacts and adaptations to climate and extreme events: Integrating quantitative and
qualitative perspectives, Past Global Change. Mag., 28, 44–45, 2020.
Wolfe, E. W. and Hoblitt, R. P.: Overview of the eruptions, in: Fire and Mud:
Eruptions and lahars of the Moun Pinatubo, Philippines, edited by: Newhall,
C. G. and Punongbayan, R. S., Univ. of Wash. Press, Seattle, 415–433, https://pubs.usgs.gov/pinatubo/contents.html (last access: 24 January 2023), 1996.
Xian, P. and Miller, R. L.: Abrupt Seasonal Migration of the ITCZ into the
Summer Hemisphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 1878–1895, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAS2367.1, 2008.
Zanchettin, D., Bothe, O., Graf, H. F., Lorenz, S. J., Luterbacher, J., Timmreck, C., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Background conditions influence the
decadal climate response to strong volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 4090–4106, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50229, 2013.
Zanchettin, D., Timmreck, C., Khodri, M., Schmidt, A., Toohey, M., Abe, M., Bekki, S., Cole, J., Fang, S.-W., Feng, W., Hegerl, G., Johnson, B., Lebas, N., LeGrande, A. N., Mann, G. W., Marshall, L., Rieger, L., Robock, A., Rubinetti, S., Tsigaridis, K., and Weierbach, H.: Effects of forcing differences and initial conditions on inter-model agreement in the VolMIP volc-pinatubo-full experiment, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2265–2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, 2022.
Co-editor-in-chief
The paper present results of cutting edge climate model simulations and reconstructions of volcanic eruption magnitude and timing to better understand the environmental context of the Ptolemaic era (305-30BCE). This important period of Ancient Egyptian history is known for its material and scientific advances, as well as for episodes of political and social unrest.
The paper present results of cutting edge climate model simulations and reconstructions of...
Short summary
This work is a modeling effort to investigate the hydroclimatic impacts of a volcanic
quartetduring 168–158 BCE over the Nile River basin in the context of Ancient Egypt's Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE). The model simulated a robust surface cooling (~ 1.0–1.5 °C), suppressing the African monsoon (deficit of > 1 mm d−1 over East Africa) and agriculturally vital Nile summer flooding. Our result supports the hypothesized relation between volcanic eruptions, hydroclimatic shocks, and societal impacts.
This work is a modeling effort to investigate the hydroclimatic impacts of a volcanic
quartet...
