Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
Research article
09 Nov 2022
Research article |  | 09 Nov 2022

A Bayesian approach to historical climatology for the Burgundian Low Countries in the 15th century

Chantal Camenisch, Fernando Jaume-Santero, Sam White, Qing Pei, Ralf Hand, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann

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Cited articles

Brázdil, R., Dobrovolný, P., Luterbacher, J., Moberg, A., Pfister, C., Wheeler, D., and Zorita, E.: European climate of the past 500 years: new challenges for historical climatology, Clim. Change, 101, 7–40,, 2010. a
Brönnimann, S., Franke, J., Breitenmoser, P. D., Hakim, G., Goosse, H., Widmann, M., Crucifix, M., Gebbie, G., Annan, J., and van der Schrier, G.: Transient state estimation in paleoclimatology using data assimilation, PAGES news, 21, 74–75, 2013. a
Buisman, J.: Duizend jaar weer, wind en water in de Lage Landen, II, 1300–1450, edited by: van Engelen, A. F. V., 1996. a
Buisman, J.: Duizend jaar weer, wind en water in de Lage Landen, III, 1450–1575, edited by: van Engelen, A. F. V., 1998. a
Camenisch, C.: Endlose Kälte: Witterungsverlauf und Getreidepreise in den Burgundischen Niederlanden im 15. Jahrhundert, Schwabe Verlag,, 2015a. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Short summary
We present a novel approach to assimilate climate information contained in chronicles and annals from the 15th century to generate climate reconstructions of the Burgundian Low Countries, taking into account uncertainties associated with the descriptions of narrative sources. Our study aims to be a first step towards a more quantitative use of available information contained in historical texts, showing how Bayesian inference can help the climate community with this endeavor.