Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 May 2022
Research article |
| 13 May 2022
| 13 May 2022
Simulated range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes from extended lakes and wetlands over North Africa
Nora Farina Specht
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Martin Claussen
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Meteorological Institute, Centrum für Erdsystemforschung und Nachhaltigkeit (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Thomas Kleinen
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
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Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, and Christian Reick
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Sirisha Kalidindi, Christian H. Reick, Thomas Raddatz, and Martin Claussen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 739–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-739-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-739-2018, 2018
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Karel Castro-Morales, Thomas Kleinen, Sonja Kaiser, Sönke Zaehle, Fanny Kittler, Min Jung Kwon, Christian Beer, and Mathias Göckede
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Vivienne P. Groner, Thomas Raddatz, Christian H. Reick, and Martin Claussen
Biogeosciences, 15, 1947–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1947-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1947-2018, 2018
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
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Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Jian Ni, Xianyong Cao, Yongbo Wang, Nils Fischer, Madlene Pfeiffer, Liya Jin, Vyacheslav Khon, Sebastian Wagner, Kerstin Haberkorn, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 13, 107–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, 2017
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The vegetation distribution in eastern Asia is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient climate simulations.
Sonja Kaiser, Mathias Göckede, Karel Castro-Morales, Christian Knoblauch, Altug Ekici, Thomas Kleinen, Sebastian Zubrzycki, Torsten Sachs, Christian Wille, and Christian Beer
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 333–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-333-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-333-2017, 2017
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A new consistent, process-based methane module that is integrated with permafrost processes is presented. It was developed within a global land surface scheme and evaluated at a polygonal tundra site in Samoylov, Russia. The calculated methane emissions show fair agreement with field data and capture detailed differences between the explicitly modelled gas transport processes and in the gas dynamics under varying soil water and temperature conditions during seasons and on different microsites.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
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An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Thomas Kleinen, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Clim. Past, 12, 2145–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2145-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2145-2016, 2016
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We investigate trends in atmospheric CO2 during three recent interglacials – the Holocene, the Eemian and MIS 11 – using an earth system model of intermediate complexity. Our model experiments show a considerable improvement in the modelled CO2 trends for all three interglacials if peat accumulation and shallow water CaCO3 sedimentation are included, forcing the model only with orbital and sea level changes. The Holocene CO2 trend requires anthropogenic emissions of CO2 only after 3 ka BP.
Alexander Lemburg, Martin Claussen, and Felix Ament
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-68, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-68, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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The deforestation of Easter Island several hundred years ago might have influenced its local near-surface climate. With a series of numerical model experiments we investigate the impact of deforestation on precipitation and near-surface climate. We find that a deforested Easter Island appears to be significantly less resistant to drought than a forested island and thus, deforestation has probably exacerbated the effects of past climate drought spells on Easter Island's socio-ecological systems.
Ulrike Port, Martin Claussen, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 535–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-535-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-535-2016, 2016
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, Christian Reick, and Tanja Stanelle
Clim. Past, 12, 1009–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, 2016
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We demonstrate for the first time the direct link between dust accumulation in marine sediment cores and Saharan land surface by simulating the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial dust cycle as a function of Saharan land surface cover and atmosphere-ocean conditions using the coupled atmosphere-aerosol model ECHAM6-HAM2.1. Mid-Holocene surface characteristics, including vegetation cover and lake surface area, are derived from proxy data and simulations.
Fabio Cresto Aleina, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Tim Brücher, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 915–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-915-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-915-2016, 2016
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This study presents the hotspot parameterization, a novel approach to upscaling methane emissions in a boreal peatland from the micro-topographic scale to the landscape scale. We based this new parameterization on the analysis of water table patterns generated by the Hummock–Hollow (HH) model. We show how the hotspot parameterization successfully upscales the micro-topographic controls on methane emissions for both present-day conditions and for the next century under three different scenarios.
T. Brücher, M. Claussen, and T. Raddatz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 769–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-769-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-769-2015, 2015
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A major link between climate and humans in northern Africa, and the Sahel in particular, is land use. We assess possible feedbacks between the type of land use and harvest intensity and climate by analysing a series of idealized GCM experiments using the MPI-ESM. Our study suggests marginal feedback between land use changes and climate changes triggered by strong greenhouse gas emissions.
U. Port and M. Claussen
Clim. Past, 11, 1563–1574, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1563-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1563-2015, 2015
V. P. Groner, M. Claussen, and C. Reick
Clim. Past, 11, 1361–1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1361-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1361-2015, 2015
F. Cresto Aleina, B. R. K. Runkle, T. Kleinen, L. Kutzbach, J. Schneider, and V. Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 12, 5689–5704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, 2015
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We developed a process-based model for peatland micro-topography and hydrology, the Hummock-Hollow (HH) model, which explicitly represents small-scale surface elevation changes. By coupling the HH model with a model for soil methane processes, we are able to model the effects of micro-topography on hydrology and methane emissions in a typical boreal peatland. We also identify potential biases that models without a micro-topographic representation can introduce in large-scale models.
T. J. Bohn, J. R. Melton, A. Ito, T. Kleinen, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, B. Zhang, X. Zhu, R. Schroeder, M. V. Glagolev, S. Maksyutov, V. Brovkin, G. Chen, S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, A. Gallego-Sala, K. C. McDonald, M.A. Rawlins, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, Q. Zhuang, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 12, 3321–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, 2015
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We evaluated 21 forward models and 5 inversions over western Siberia in terms of CH4 emissions and simulated wetland areas and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. In addition to assembling a definitive collection of methane emissions estimates for the region, we were able to identify the types of wetland maps and model features necessary for accurate simulations of high-latitude wetlands.
U. Port, M. Claussen, and V. Brovkin
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-997-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-997-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
A. Dallmeyer, M. Claussen, N. Fischer, K. Haberkorn, S. Wagner, M. Pfeiffer, L. Jin, V. Khon, Y. Wang, and U. Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 11, 305–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-305-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-305-2015, 2015
F. S. E. Vamborg, V. Brovkin, and M. Claussen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 89–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-89-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-89-2014, 2014
M. Claussen, K. Selent, V. Brovkin, T. Raddatz, and V. Gayler
Biogeosciences, 10, 3593–3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3593-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3593-2013, 2013
R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
J. R. Melton, R. Wania, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, D. J. Beerling, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, P. O. Hopcroft, D. P. Lettenmaier, W. J. Riley, J. S. Singarayer, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, S. Zürcher, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 10, 753–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Holocene
Simulating dust emissions and secondary organic aerosol formation over northern Africa during the mid-Holocene Green Sahara period
Quantifying effects of Earth orbital parameters and greenhouse gases on mid-Holocene climate
Contribution of lakes in sustaining the Sahara greening during the mid-Holocene
Did the Bronze Age deforestation of Europe affect its climate? A regional climate model study using pollen-based land cover reconstructions
Indian Ocean variability changes in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project
CHELSA-TraCE21k – high-resolution (1 km) downscaled transient temperature and precipitation data since the Last Glacial Maximum
Investigating hydroclimatic impacts of the 168–158 BCE volcanic quartet and their relevance to the Nile River basin and Egyptian history
Simulations of the Holocene climate in Europe using an interactive downscaling within the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.1)
Mid-Holocene climate of the Tibetan Plateau and hydroclimate in three major river basins based on high-resolution regional climate simulations
Comparison of the green-to-desert Sahara transitions between the Holocene and the last interglacial
Influence of long-term changes in solar irradiance forcing on the Southern Annular Mode
Calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation based on model-ensemble equilibrium and transient simulations from PMIP4 and PACMEDY
The long-standing dilemma of European summer temperatures at the mid-Holocene and other considerations on learning from the past for the future using a regional climate model
Mid-Holocene monsoons in South and Southeast Asia: dynamically downscaled simulations and the influence of the Green Sahara
The remote response of the South Asian Monsoon to reduced dust emissions and Sahara greening during the middle Holocene
Impact of dust in PMIP-CMIP6 mid-Holocene simulations with the IPSL model
Technical note: Characterising and comparing different palaeoclimates with dynamical systems theory
Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations
CMIP6/PMIP4 simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial using HadGEM3: comparison to the pre-industrial era, previous model versions and proxy data
Water isotopes – climate relationships for the mid-Holocene and preindustrial period simulated with an isotope-enabled version of MPI-ESM
Effects of land use and anthropogenic aerosol emissions in the Roman Empire
Strengths and challenges for transient Mid- to Late Holocene simulations with dynamical vegetation
Physical processes of cooling and mega-drought during the 4.2 ka BP event: results from TraCE-21ka simulations
Comparing the spatial patterns of climate change in the 9th and 5th millennia BP from TRACE-21 model simulations
Abrupt cold events in the North Atlantic Ocean in a transient Holocene simulation
Rapid increase in simulated North Atlantic dust deposition due to fast change of northwest African landscape during the Holocene
Evaluation of PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations of mid-Holocene climate in the Indo-Pacific, Australasian and Southern Ocean regions
Biome changes in Asia since the mid-Holocene – an analysis of different transient Earth system model simulations
Modeling precipitation δ18O variability in East Asia since the Last Glacial Maximum: temperature and amount effects across different timescales
Mid-to-late Holocene temperature evolution and atmospheric dynamics over Europe in regional model simulations
Effects of melting ice sheets and orbital forcing on the early Holocene warming in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere
The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene
The link between marine sediment records and changes in Holocene Saharan landscape: simulating the dust cycle
Stability of ENSO and its tropical Pacific teleconnections over the Last Millennium
Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes
The impact of Sahara desertification on Arctic cooling during the Holocene
Global climate simulations at 3000-year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean model
Reexamining the barrier effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the South Asian summer monsoon
Model–data comparison and data assimilation of mid-Holocene Arctic sea ice concentration
Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations
Mid-Holocene ocean and vegetation feedbacks over East Asia
A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 1: Model validation
Influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change and terrestrial carbon storage in the Last Glacial Maximum
Can an Earth System Model simulate better climate change at mid-Holocene than an AOGCM? A comparison study of MIROC-ESM and MIROC3
Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity
The sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes: a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulations
Model sensitivity to North Atlantic freshwater forcing at 8.2 ka
Using data assimilation to investigate the causes of Southern Hemisphere high latitude cooling from 10 to 8 ka BP
Last interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparison
The East Asian Summer Monsoon at mid-Holocene: results from PMIP3 simulations
Putian Zhou, Zhengyao Lu, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Qiong Zhang, Juha Lento, Jianpu Bian, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Markku Kulmala, Michael Boy, and Risto Makkonen
Clim. Past, 19, 2445–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, 2023
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A Green Sahara with enhanced rainfall and larger vegetation cover existed in northern Africa about 6000 years ago. Biosphere–atmosphere interactions are found to be critical to explaining this wet period. Based on modeled vegetation reconstruction data, we simulated dust emissions and aerosol formation, which are key factors in biosphere–atmosphere interactions. Our results also provide a benchmark of aerosol climatology for future paleo-climate simulation experiments.
Yibo Kang and Haijun Yang
Clim. Past, 19, 2013–2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2013-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2013-2023, 2023
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We simulated the climate difference between the mid-Holocene (MH) and the preindustrial (PI) periods and quantified the effects of Earth orbital parameters (ORBs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the climate difference. We think the insignificant difference in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation between the MH and PI periods has resulted from the competing effects of the ORBs and the GHGs on the climate.
Yuheng Li, Kanon Kino, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Taikan Oki
Clim. Past, 19, 1891–1904, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, 2023
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Our study using the isotope-enabled climate model MIROC5-iso model shows that lakes may have contributed to the Green Sahara during the mid-Holocene period (6000 years ago). The lakes induced cyclonic circulation response, enhancing the near-surface monsoon westerly flow and potentially humidifying the northwestern Sahara with the stronger West African Monsoon moving northward. Our findings provide valuable insights into understanding the presence of the Green Sahara during this period.
Gustav Strandberg, Jie Chen, Ralph Fyfe, Erik Kjellström, Johan Lindström, Anneli Poska, Qiong Zhang, and Marie-José Gaillard
Clim. Past, 19, 1507–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, 2023
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The impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate around 2500 years ago is studied using reconstructions and models. The results suggest that LULCC impacted the climate in parts of Europe. Reconstructed LULCC shows up to 1.5 °C higher temperature in parts of Europe in some seasons. This relatively strong response implies that anthropogenic LULCC that had occurred by the late prehistoric period may have already affected the European climate by 2500 years ago.
Chris Brierley, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Edward Grindrod, and Jonathan Barnsley
Clim. Past, 19, 681–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, 2023
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Year-to-year variations in the weather conditions over the Indian Ocean have important consequences for the substantial fraction of the Earth's population that live near it. This work looks at how these variations respond to climate change – both past and future. The models rarely agree, suggesting a weak, uncertain response to climate change.
Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Michael P. Nobis, Signe Normand, Catherine H. Graham, and Niklaus E. Zimmermann
Clim. Past, 19, 439–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023, 2023
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Here we present global monthly climate time series for air temperature and precipitation at 1 km resolution for the last 21 000 years. The topography at all time steps is created by combining high-resolution information on glacial cover from current and Last Glacial Maximum glacier databases with the interpolation of an ice sheet model and a coupling to mean annual temperatures from a global circulation model.
Ram Singh, Kostas Tsigaridis, Allegra N. LeGrande, Francis Ludlow, and Joseph G. Manning
Clim. Past, 19, 249–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, 2023
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This work is a modeling effort to investigate the hydroclimatic impacts of a volcanic
quartetduring 168–158 BCE over the Nile River basin in the context of Ancient Egypt's Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE). The model simulated a robust surface cooling (~ 1.0–1.5 °C), suppressing the African monsoon (deficit of > 1 mm d−1 over East Africa) and agriculturally vital Nile summer flooding. Our result supports the hypothesized relation between volcanic eruptions, hydroclimatic shocks, and societal impacts.
Frank Arthur, Didier M. Roche, Ralph Fyfe, Aurélien Quiquet, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past, 19, 87–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, 2023
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This paper simulates transcient Holocene climate in Europe by applying an interactive downscaling to the standard version of the iLOVECLIM model. The results show that downscaling presents a higher spatial variability in better agreement with proxy-based reconstructions as compared to the standard model, particularly in the Alps, the Scandes, and the Mediterranean. Our downscaling scheme is numerically cheap, which can perform kilometric multi-millennial simulations suitable for future studies.
Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
Clim. Past, 18, 2401–2420, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2401-2022, 2022
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Understanding the hydrological changes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the mid-Holocene (MH; a period with warmer summers than today) will help us understand expected future changes. This study analyses the hydroclimates over the headwater regions of three major rivers originating on the TP using dynamically downscaled climate simulations. Model–data comparisons show that the dynamic downscaling significantly improves both the present-day and MH regional climate simulations of the TP.
Huan Li, Hans Renssen, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2303–2319, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, 2022
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In past warm periods, the Sahara region was covered by vegetation. In this paper we study transitions from this
greenstate to the desert state we find today. For this purpose, we have used a global climate model coupled to a vegetation model to perform transient simulations. We analyzed the model results to assess the effect of vegetation shifts on the abruptness of the transition. We find that the vegetation feedback was more efficient during the last interglacial than during the Holocene.
Nicky M. Wright, Claire E. Krause, Steven J. Phipps, Ghyslaine Boschat, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 18, 1509–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, 2022
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The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a major mode of climate variability. Proxy-based SAM reconstructions show changes that last millennium climate simulations do not reproduce. We test the SAM's sensitivity to solar forcing using simulations with a range of solar values and transient last millennium simulations with large-amplitude solar variations. We find that solar forcing can alter the SAM and that strong solar forcing transient simulations better match proxy-based reconstructions.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
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Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
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In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
Clim. Past, 17, 1645–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, 2021
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Regional climate simulations were constructed to more accurately capture regional features of the South and Southeast Asian monsoon during the mid-Holocene. Comparison with proxies shows that our high-resolution simulations outperform those with the coarser global model in reproducing the monsoon rainfall anomalies. Incorporating the Green Sahara climate conditions over northern Africa into our simulations further strengthens the monsoon precipitation and leads to better agreement with proxies.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
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Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Pascale Braconnot, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Anne Cozic, Masa Kageyama, Adriana Sima, Olivier Marti, and Jean-Yves Peterschmitt
Clim. Past, 17, 1091–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, 2021
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We investigate how mid-Holocene dust reduction affects the Earth’s energetics from a suite of climate simulations. Our analyses confirm the peculiar role of the dust radiative effect over bright surfaces such as African deserts. We highlight a strong dependence on the dust pattern. The relative dust forcing between West Africa and the Middle East impacts the relative response of Indian and African monsoons and between the western tropical Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional circulation.
Gabriele Messori and Davide Faranda
Clim. Past, 17, 545–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, 2021
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The palaeoclimate community must both analyse large amounts of model data and compare very different climates. Here, we present a seemingly very abstract analysis approach that may be fruitfully applied to palaeoclimate numerical simulations. This approach characterises the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics and is thus suited to face the above challenges.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
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This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Charles J. R. Williams, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Emilie Capron, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Joy S. Singarayer, Louise C. Sime, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 16, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, 2020
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Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from two simulations using the latest version of the UK's climate model, the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) and Last Interglacial (127 000 years ago). The simulations reproduce temperatures consistent with the pattern of incoming radiation. Model–data comparisons indicate that some regions (and some seasons) produce better matches to the data than others.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
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We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Anina Gilgen, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kühn, and Ulrike Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1885–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, 2019
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Using the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAM-SALSA, the effect of humans on European climate in the Roman Empire was quantified. Both land use and novel estimates of anthropogenic aerosol emissions were considered. We conducted simulations with fixed sea-surface temperatures to gain a first impression about the anthropogenic impact. While land use effects induced a regional warming for one of the reconstructions, aerosol emissions led to a cooling associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.
Pascale Braconnot, Dan Zhu, Olivier Marti, and Jérôme Servonnat
Clim. Past, 15, 997–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, 2019
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This study discusses a simulation of the last 6000 years realized with a climate model in which the vegetation and carbon cycle are fully interactive. The long-term southward shift in Northern Hemisphere tree line and Afro-Asian monsoon rain are reproduced. The results show substantial change in tree composition with time over Eurasia and the role of trace gases in the recent past. They highlight the limitations due to model setup and multiple preindustrial vegetation states.
Mi Yan and Jian Liu
Clim. Past, 15, 265–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, 2019
Liang Ning, Jian Liu, Raymond S. Bradley, and Mi Yan
Clim. Past, 15, 41–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019, 2019
Andrea Klus, Matthias Prange, Vidya Varma, Louis Bruno Tremblay, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 14, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, 2018
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Numerous proxy records from the northern North Atlantic suggest substantial climate variability including the occurrence of multi-decadal-to-centennial cold events during the Holocene. We analyzed two abrupt cold events in a Holocene simulation using a comprehensive climate model. It is shown that the events were ultimately triggered by prolonged phases of positive North Atlantic Oscillation causing changes in ocean circulation followed by severe cooling, freshening, and expansion of sea ice.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, and Christian Reick
Clim. Past, 14, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, 2018
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We find a rapid increase in simulated dust deposition between 6 and
4 ka BP that is fairly consistent with an abrupt change in dust deposition that was observed in marine sediment records at around 5 ka BP. This rapid change is caused by a rapid increase in simulated dust emissions in the western Sahara due to a fast decline in vegetation cover and a locally strong reduction of lake area. Our study identifies spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the transition of the North African landscape.
Duncan Ackerley, Jessica Reeves, Cameron Barr, Helen Bostock, Kathryn Fitzsimmons, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Chris Gouramanis, Helen McGregor, Scott Mooney, Steven J. Phipps, John Tibby, and Jonathan Tyler
Clim. Past, 13, 1661–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, 2017
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A selection of climate models have been used to simulate both pre-industrial (1750 CE) and mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) conditions. This study presents an assessment of the temperature, rainfall and flow over Australasia from those climate models. The model data are compared with available proxy data reconstructions (e.g. tree rings) for 6000 years ago to identify whether the models are reliable. Places where there is both agreement and conflict are highlighted and investigated further.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Jian Ni, Xianyong Cao, Yongbo Wang, Nils Fischer, Madlene Pfeiffer, Liya Jin, Vyacheslav Khon, Sebastian Wagner, Kerstin Haberkorn, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 13, 107–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, 2017
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The vegetation distribution in eastern Asia is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient climate simulations.
Xinyu Wen, Zhengyu Liu, Zhongxiao Chen, Esther Brady, David Noone, Qingzhao Zhu, and Jian Guan
Clim. Past, 12, 2077–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we challenge the usefulness of temperature effect and amount effect, the basic assumptions in past climate reconstruction using a stable water isotope proxy, in East Asia on multiple timescales. By modeling several time slices in the past 22 000 years using an isotope-enabled general circulation model, we suggest great caution when interpreting δ18O records in this area as indicators of surface temperature and/or local monsoonal precipitation, especially on a millennial timescale.
Emmanuele Russo and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 12, 1645–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, 2016
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In this study we use a RCM for three different goals.
Proposing a model configuration suitable for paleoclimate studies; evaluating the added value of a regional climate model for paleoclimate studies; investigating temperature evolution of the European continent during mid-to-late Holocene.
Results suggest that the RCM seems to produce results in better agreement with reconstructions than its driving GCM. Simulated temperature evolution seems to be too sensitive to changes in insolation.
Yurui Zhang, Hans Renssen, and Heikki Seppä
Clim. Past, 12, 1119–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, 2016
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We explore how forcings contributed to climate change during the early Holocene that marked the final transition to the warm and stable stage. Our results indicate that 1) temperature at the Holocene onset was lower than in the preindustrial over the northern extratropics with the exception in Alaska, and the magnitude of this cooling varies regionally as a response to varying climate forcings and diverse mechanisms, and 2) the rate of the early Holocene warming was also spatially heterogeneous.
M. Clare Smith, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, Jed O. Kaplan, and Nicholas P. Branch
Clim. Past, 12, 923–941, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, 2016
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We used climate modelling to estimate the biogeophysical impacts of agriculture on the climate over the last 8000 years of the Holocene. Our results show statistically significant surface temperature changes (mainly cooling) from as early as 7000 BP in the JJA season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3000 BP. The changes were greatest in the areas of land use change but were also seen in other areas. Precipitation was also affected, particularly in Europe, India, and the ITCZ region.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, Christian Reick, and Tanja Stanelle
Clim. Past, 12, 1009–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, 2016
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We demonstrate for the first time the direct link between dust accumulation in marine sediment cores and Saharan land surface by simulating the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial dust cycle as a function of Saharan land surface cover and atmosphere-ocean conditions using the coupled atmosphere-aerosol model ECHAM6-HAM2.1. Mid-Holocene surface characteristics, including vegetation cover and lake surface area, are derived from proxy data and simulations.
S. C. Lewis and A. N. LeGrande
Clim. Past, 11, 1347–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, 2015
P. J. Bartlein, M. E. Edwards, S. W. Hostetler, S. L. Shafer, P. M. Anderson, L. B. Brubaker, and A. V. Lozhkin
Clim. Past, 11, 1197–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, 2015
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The ongoing warming of the Arctic is producing changes in vegetation and hydrology that, coupled with rising sea level, could mediate global changes. We explored this possibility using regional climate model simulations of a past interval of warming in Beringia and found that the regional-scale changes do strongly mediate the responses to global changes, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in climate change.
F. J. Davies, H. Renssen, M. Blaschek, and F. Muschitiello
Clim. Past, 11, 571–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, 2015
J. R. Alder and S. W. Hostetler
Clim. Past, 11, 449–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, 2015
G.-S. Chen, Z. Liu, and J. E. Kutzbach
Clim. Past, 10, 1269–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
A. Perez-Sanz, G. Li, P. González-Sampériz, and S. P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 10, 551–568, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, 2014
Z. Tian and D. Jiang
Clim. Past, 9, 2153–2171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, 2013
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1667–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, 2013
R. O'ishi and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 9, 1571–1587, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, 2013
R. Ohgaito, T. Sueyoshi, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Hajima, S. Watanabe, H.-J. Kim, A. Yamamoto, and M. Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 9, 1519–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
M. Berger, J. Brandefelt, and J. Nilsson
Clim. Past, 9, 969–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-969-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-969-2013, 2013
C. Morrill, A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 9, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, 2013
P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, 2013
P. Bakker, E. J. Stone, S. Charbit, M. Gröger, U. Krebs-Kanzow, S. P. Ritz, V. Varma, V. Khon, D. J. Lunt, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Prange, H. Renssen, B. Schneider, and M. Schulz
Clim. Past, 9, 605–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, 2013
W. Zheng, B. Wu, J. He, and Y. Yu
Clim. Past, 9, 453–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-453-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-453-2013, 2013
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Short summary
Palaeoenvironmental records only provide a fragmentary picture of the lake and wetland extent in North Africa during the mid-Holocene. Therefore, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes caused by an estimated small and maximum lake extent and a maximum wetland extent. Results show a particularly strong monsoon precipitation response to lakes and wetlands over the Western Sahara and an increased monsoon precipitation when replacing lakes with vegetated wetlands.
Palaeoenvironmental records only provide a fragmentary picture of the lake and wetland extent in...
