Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 May 2022
Research article |
| 13 May 2022
| 13 May 2022
Simulated range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes from extended lakes and wetlands over North Africa
Nora Farina Specht
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Martin Claussen
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Meteorological Institute, Centrum für Erdsystemforschung und Nachhaltigkeit (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Thomas Kleinen
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Related authors
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 20, 1595–1613, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1595-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1595-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We close the terrestrial water cycle across the Sahara and Sahel by integrating a new endorheic-lake model into a climate model. A factor analysis of mid-Holocene simulations shows that both dynamic lakes and dynamic vegetation individually contribute to a precipitation increase over northern Africa that is collectively greater than that caused by the interaction between lake and vegetation dynamics. Thus, the lake–vegetation interaction causes a relative drying response across the entire Sahel.
Marielle Saunois, Adrien Martinez, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Peter A. Raymond, Pierre Regnier, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Xin Lan, George H. Allen, David Bastviken, David J. Beerling, Dmitry A. Belikov, Donald R. Blake, Simona Castaldi, Monica Crippa, Bridget R. Deemer, Fraser Dennison, Giuseppe Etiope, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Meredith A. Holgerson, Peter O. Hopcroft, Gustaf Hugelius, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Rajesh Janardanan, Matthew S. Johnson, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ronny Lauerwald, Tingting Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe R. Melton, Jens Mühle, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Shufen Pan, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Judith A. Rosentreter, Motoki Sasakawa, Arjo Segers, Steven J. Smith, Emily H. Stanley, Joël Thanwerdas, Hanqin Tian, Aki Tsuruta, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas S. Weber, Guido R. van der Werf, Douglas E. J. Worthy, Yi Xi, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1873–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2). A consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists synthesise and update the budget of the sources and sinks of CH4. This edition benefits from important progress in estimating emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. For the 2010s decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated at 575 Tg CH4 yr-1, including ~65 % from anthropogenic sources.
Mateo Duque-Villegas, Martin Claussen, Thomas Kleinen, Jürgen Bader, and Christian H. Reick
Clim. Past, 21, 773–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-773-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-773-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the last glacial cycle with a comprehensive model of the Earth system and investigate vegetation cover change in northern Africa during the last four African Humid Periods (AHPs). We find a common pattern of vegetation change and relate it with climatic factors in order to discuss how vegetation might have evolved during even older AHPs. This scaling relationship we find according to past AHPs fails to account for projected changes in northern Africa under strong greenhouse gas warming.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Müller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 323–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions, and upscaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Zhen Zhang, Benjamin Poulter, Joe R. Melton, William J. Riley, George H. Allen, David J. Beerling, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Philippe Ciais, Nicola Gedney, Peter O. Hopcroft, Akihiko Ito, Robert B. Jackson, Atul K. Jain, Katherine Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Sara H. Knox, Tingting Li, Xin Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle McDonald, Gavin McNicol, Paul A. Miller, Jurek Müller, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Zhangcai Qin, Ryan M. Riggs, Marielle Saunois, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Xiaoming Xu, Yuanzhi Yao, Yi Xi, Wenxin Zhang, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 22, 305–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses global methane emissions from wetlands between 2000 and 2020 using multiple models. We found that wetland emissions increased by 6–7 Tg CH4 yr-1 in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Rising temperatures primarily drove this increase, while changes in precipitation and CO2 levels also played roles. Our findings highlight the importance of wetlands in the global methane budget and the need for continuous monitoring to understand their impact on climate change.
Pin-Hsin Hu, Christian H. Reick, Reiner Schnur, Axel Kleidon, and Martin Claussen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-111, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce the new plant functional diversity model JeDi-BACH, a novel tool that integrates the Jena Diversity Model (JeDi) within the land component of the ICON Earth System Model. JeDi-BACH captures a richer set of plant trait variations based on environmental filtering and functional tradeoffs without a priori knowledge of the vegetation types. JeDi-BACH represents a significant advancement in modeling the complex interactions between plant functional diversity and climate.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 20, 1595–1613, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1595-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1595-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We close the terrestrial water cycle across the Sahara and Sahel by integrating a new endorheic-lake model into a climate model. A factor analysis of mid-Holocene simulations shows that both dynamic lakes and dynamic vegetation individually contribute to a precipitation increase over northern Africa that is collectively greater than that caused by the interaction between lake and vegetation dynamics. Thus, the lake–vegetation interaction causes a relative drying response across the entire Sahel.
Nils Weitzel, Heather Andres, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lukas Jonkers, Oliver Bothe, Elisa Ziegler, Thomas Kleinen, André Paul, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 20, 865–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ability of climate models to faithfully reproduce past warming episodes is a valuable test considering potentially large future warming. We develop a new method to compare simulations of the last deglaciation with temperature reconstructions. We find that reconstructions differ more between regions than simulations, potentially due to deficiencies in the simulation design, models, or reconstructions. Our work is a promising step towards benchmarking simulations of past climate transitions.
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
Zoé Rehder, Thomas Kleinen, Lars Kutzbach, Victor Stepanenko, Moritz Langer, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 2837–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a new model to investigate how methane emissions from Arctic ponds change with warming. We find that emissions increase substantially. Under annual temperatures 5 °C above present temperatures, pond methane emissions are more than 3 times higher than now. Most of this increase is caused by an increase in plant productivity as plants provide the substrate microbes used to produce methane. We conclude that vegetation changes need to be included in predictions of pond methane emissions.
Thomas Kleinen, Sergey Gromov, Benedikt Steil, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 19, 1081–1099, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1081-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1081-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled atmospheric methane continuously from the last glacial maximum to the present using a state-of-the-art Earth system model. Our model results compare well with reconstructions from ice cores and improve our understanding of a very intriguing period of Earth system history, the deglaciation, when atmospheric methane changed quickly and strongly. Deglacial methane changes are driven by emissions from tropical wetlands, with wetlands in high northern latitudes being secondary.
Leonore Jungandreas, Cathy Hohenegger, and Martin Claussen
Clim. Past, 19, 637–664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-637-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing the vegetation cover over mid-Holcocene North Africa expands the West African monsoon ∼ 4–5° further north. This northward shift of monsoonal precipitation is caused by interactions of the land surface with large-scale monsoon circulation and the coupling of soil moisture to precipitation. We highlight the importance of considering not only how soil moisture influences precipitation but also how different precipitation characteristics alter the soil hydrology via runoff generation.
Mateo Duque-Villegas, Martin Claussen, Victor Brovkin, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1897–1914, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1897-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we quantify contributions of the Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ice sheets to the strength of Saharan greening during late Quaternary African humid periods (AHPs). Orbital forcing is found as the dominant factor, having a critical threshold and accounting for most of the changes in the vegetation response. However, results suggest that GHGs may influence the orbital threshold and thus may play a pivotal role for future AHPs.
Jooyeop Lee, Martin Claussen, Jeongwon Kim, Je-Woo Hong, In-Sun Song, and Jinkyu Hong
Clim. Past, 18, 313–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-313-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It is still a challenge to simulate the so–called Green Sahara (GS), which was a wet and vegetative Sahara region in the mid–Holocene, using current climate models. Our analysis shows that Holocene greening is simulated better if the amount of soil nitrogen and soil texture is properly modified for the humid and vegetative GS period. Future climate simulation needs to consider consequent changes in soil nitrogen and texture with changes in vegetation cover for proper climate simulations.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Stephan J. Lorenz, Michael Sigl, Matthew Toohey, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 17, 2481–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using the comprehensive Earth system model, MPI-ESM1.2, we explore the global Holocene vegetation changes and interpret them in terms of the Holocene climate change. The model results reveal that most of the Holocene vegetation transitions seen outside the high northern latitudes can be attributed to modifications in the intensity of the global summer monsoons.
Leonore Jungandreas, Cathy Hohenegger, and Martin Claussen
Clim. Past, 17, 1665–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1665-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1665-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of explicitly resolving convection on the mid-Holocene West African Monsoon rain belt by employing the ICON climate model in high resolution. While the spatial distribution and intensity of the precipitation are improved by this technique, the monsoon extents further north and the mean summer rainfall is higher in the simulation with parameterized convection.
Philipp de Vrese, Tobias Stacke, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 15, 1097–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
With large amounts of carbon stored in frozen soils and a highly energy-limited vegetation the Arctic is very sensitive to changes in climate. Here our simulations with the land surface model JSBACH reveal a number of offsetting factors moderating the Arctic's net response to global warming. More importantly we find that the effects of climate change may not be fully reversible on decadal timescales, leading to substantially different CH4 emissions depending on whether the Arctic warms or cools.
Cited articles
Berger, A.: Long-term variations of caloric insolation resulting from the earth's orbital elements, Quaternary Res., 9, 139–167, https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(78)90064-9, 1978. a
Brierley, C. M., Zhao, A., Harrison, S. P., Braconnot, P., Williams, C. J. R., Thornalley, D. J. R., Shi, X., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Ohgaito, R., Kaufman, D. S., Kageyama, M., Hargreaves, J. C., Erb, M. P., Emile-Geay, J., D'Agostino, R., Chandan, D., Carré, M., Bartlein, P. J., Zheng, W., Zhang, Z., Zhang, Q., Yang, H., Volodin, E. M., Tomas, R. A., Routson, C., Peltier, W. R., Otto-Bliesner, B., Morozova, P. A., McKay, N. P., Lohmann, G., Legrande, A. N., Guo, C., Cao, J., Brady, E., Annan, J. D., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations, Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020. a
Broström, A., Coe, M., Harrison, S. P., Gallimore, R., Kutzbach, J. E., Foley, J., Prentice, I. C., and Behling, P.: Land surface feedbacks and palaeomonsoons in northern Africa, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 3615–3618, https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL02804, 1998. a, b, c, d
Brovkin, V., Lorenz, S., Raddatz, T., Ilyina, T., Stemmler, I., Toohey, M., and Claussen, M.: What was the source of the atmospheric CO2 increase during the Holocene?, Biogeosciences, 16, 2543–2555, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, 2019. a
Claussen, M. and Gayler, V.: The Greening of the Sahara during the Mid-Holocene: Results of an Interactive Atmosphere-Biome Model, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 6, 369–377, https://doi.org/10.2307/2997337, 1997. a
Claussen, M., Dallmeyer, A., and Bader, J.: Theory and modeling of the African humid period and the green Sahara, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.532, 2017. a
Coe, M. T. and Bonan, G. B.: Feedbacks between climate and surface water in northern Africa during the middle Holocene, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102, 11087–11101, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD00343, 1997. a, b, c
Dallmeyer, A., Claussen, M., Lorenz, S. J., and Shanahan, T.: The end of the African humid period as seen by a transient comprehensive Earth system model simulation of the last 8000 years, Clim. Past, 16, 117–140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-117-2020, 2020. a, b
Dallmeyer, A., Claussen, M., Lorenz, S. J., Sigl, M., Toohey, M., and Herzschuh, U.: Holocene vegetation transitions and their climatic drivers in MPI-ESM1.2, Clim. Past, 17, 2481–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, 2021. a
Egerer, S.: Data for publication 'Rapid increase in simulated North Atlantic dust deposition due to fast change of northwest African landscape during the Holocene', DOKU at DKRZ [data set], https://cera-www.dkrz.de/WDCC/ui/cerasearch/entry?acronym=readme_mj0060_ds00002 (last access: 14 October 2021), 2018. a
Giorgetta, M. A., Brokopf, R., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fiedler, S., Helmert, J., Hohenegger, C., Kornblueh, L., Köhler, M., Manzini, E., Mauritsen, T., Nam, C., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Reinert, D., Sakradzija, M., Schmidt, H., Schneck, R., Schnur, R., Silvers, L., Wan, H., Zängl, G., and Stevens, B.:
ICON-A, the Atmosphere Component of the ICON Earth System Model: I. Model Description, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 1613–1637, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017MS001242, 2018. a
Hagos, S. M. and Cook, K. H.: Dynamics of the West African Monsoon Jump, J. Climate, 20, 5264–5284, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1533.1, 2007. a
Hoelzmann, P., Jolly, D., Harrison, S. P., Laarif, F., Bonnefille, R., and Pachur, H.-J.: Mid-Holocene land-surface conditions in northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula: A data set for the analysis of biogeophysical feedbacks in the climate system, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 12, 35–51, https://doi.org/10.1029/97GB02733, 1998. a, b, c, d, e, f
Hoelzmann, P., Jolly, D., Harrison, S. P., Laarif, F., Bonnefille, R., and Pachur, H.-J.: African 6K Land Surface Conditions, IGBP PAGES/World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 98-012, NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program [data set], Boulder CO, USA, https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pollen/africa6k, last
access: 14 October 2021. a
Holmes, J. and Hoelzmann, P.: The Late Pleistocene-Holocene African Humid Period as Evident in Lakes, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.531, 2017. a, b
Jungclaus, J., Mikolajewicz, U., Kapsch, M.-L., D'Agostino, R., Wieners, K.-H., Giorgetta, M., Reick, C., Esch, M., Bittner, M., Legutke, S., Schupfner, M., Wachsmann, F., Gayler, V., Haak, H., de Vrese, P., Raddatz, T., Mauritsen, T., von Storch, J.-S., Behrens, J., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Hagemann, S., Hohenegger, C., Jahns, T., Kloster, S., Kinne, S., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Modali, K., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Notz, D., Peters-von Gehlen, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Rast, S., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K., Stevens, B., Voigt, A., and Roeckner, E.: CMIP6.PMIP.MPI-M.MPI-ESM1-2-LR.midHolocene, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6644, 2019. a
Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J., Schmidt, H., Gutjahr, O., Haak, H., Mehlmann, C., Mikolajewicz, U., Notz, D., Putrashan, D., von Storch, J.-S., Leonidas, L., Brokvin, V., Chegini, F., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M. A., Hagemann, S., Ilyina, T., Korn, P., Kröger, J., Müller, W. A., Pohlmann, H., Raddatz, T. J., Ramme, L., Christian, R. H., Schneck, R., Schnur, R., Stevens, B., Ziemen, F. A., Claussen, M., Marotzke, J., Wachsmann, F., Schupfner, M., Riddick, T., Wieners, K.-H., Brueggemann, N., Redler, R., de Vrese, P., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Sam, T., and Hanke, M.: The ICON Earth System Model Version 1.0, Climatology (Global Change), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 14, e2021MS002813, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002813, 2021. a
Kanamitsu, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Woollen, J., Yang, S.-K., Hnilo, J. J., Fiorino, M., and Potter, G. L.: NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 1631–1644, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631, 2002. a
Kutzbach, J., Bonan, G., Foley, J., and Harrison, S. P.: Vegetation and soil feedbacks on the response of the African monsoon to orbital forcing in the early to middle Holocene, Nature, 384, 623–626, https://doi.org/10.1038/384623a0, 1996. a
Kutzbach, J. E.: Monsoon Climate of the Early Holocene: Climate Experiment with the Earth's Orbital Parameters for 9000 Years Ago, Science, 214, 59–61, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.214.4516.59, 1981. a
Levis, S., Bonan, G. B., and Bonfils, C.: Soil feedback drives the mid-Holocene North African monsoon northward in fully coupled CCSM2 simulations with a dynamic vegetation model, Clim. Dynam., 23, 791–802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0477-y, 2004. a
Lézine, A.-M., Hély, C., Grenier, C., Braconnot, P., and Krinner, G.: Sahara and Sahel vulnerability to climate changes, lessons from Holocene hydrological data, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30, 3001–3012, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.07.006, 2011. a, b, c
Neupane, N. and Cook, K. H.: A Nonlinear Response of Sahel Rainfall to Atlantic Warming, J. Climate, 26, 7080–7096, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00475.1, 2013. a
Nicholson, S. E.: A revised picture of the structure of the “monsoon” and land ITCZ over West Africa, Clim. Dynam., 32, 1155–1171, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0514-3, 2009. a, b, c
Otto, J., Raddatz, T., and Claussen, M.: Strength of forest-albedo feedback in mid-Holocene climate simulations, Clim. Past, 7, 1027–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1027-2011, 2011. a
Quade, J., Dente, E., Armon, M., Dor, Y. B., Morin, E., Adam, O., and Enzel, Y.: Megalakes in the Sahara? A Review, Quaternary Res., 90, 253–275, https://doi.org/10.1017/qua.2018.46, 2018. a
Reick, C. H., Gayler, V., Goll, D., Hagemann, S., Heidkamp, M., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Raddatz, T., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., and Wilkenskjeld, S.: JSBACH 3 - The land component of the MPI Earth System Model: documentation of version 3.2, MPI für Meteorologie, Hamburg, p. 4990986, https://doi.org/10.17617/2.3279802, 2021. a
Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., Mohino, E., Mechoso, C. R., Caminade, C., Biasutti, M., Gaetani, M., Garcia-Serrano, J., Vizy, E. K., Cook, K., Xue, Y., Polo, I., Losada, T., Druyan, L., Fontaine, B., Bader, J., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Goddard, L., Janicot, S., Arribas, A., Lau, W., Colman, A., Vellinga, M., Rowell, D. P., Kucharski, F., and Voldoire, A.: Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, J. Climate, 28, 4034–4060, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00130.1, 2015. a
Roeckner, E., Bäuml, G., Bonaventura, L., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kirchner, I., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Rhodin, A., Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U., and Tompkins, A.: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM 5. PART I: Model description, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, https://doi.org/10.17617/2.995269, 2003. a, b
Schneck, R., Gayler, V., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Raddatz, T., Reick, C. H., and Schnur, R.: Assessment of JSBACHv4.30 as land component of ICON-ESM-V1 in comparison to its predecessor JSBACHv3.2 of MPI-ESM1.2, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-74, in review, 2022. a
Seager, R., Naik, N., and Vecchi, G. A.: Thermodynamic and Dynamic Mechanisms for Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle in Response to Global Warming, J. Climate, 23, 4651–4668, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3655.1, 2010. a, b
Shanahan, T. M., McKay, N. P., Hughen, K. A., Overpeck, J. T., Otto-Bliesner, B., Heil, C. W., King, J., Scholz, C. A., and Peck, J.: The time-transgressive termination of the African Humid Period, Nat. Geosci., 8, 140–144, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2329, 2015. a
Skinner, C. B. and Poulsen, C. J.: The role of fall season tropical plumes in enhancing Saharan rainfall during the African Humid Period, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 349–358, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066318, 2016. a, b
Specht, N. F., Claussen, M., and Kleinen, T.: Simulated range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes from extended lakes and wetlands over North Africa, MPG.PuRe [data set], http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0009-63B5-B, last access: 14 October 2021. a
Taylor, K., Williamson, D., and Zwiers, F.: AMIP II Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Concentration Boundary Conditions, PCMDI Report No. 60, 2000. a
Vamborg, F. S. E., Brovkin, V., and Claussen, M.: The effect of a dynamic background albedo scheme on Sahel/Sahara precipitation during the mid-Holocene, Clim. Past, 7, 117–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-117-2011, 2011. a, b
Wieners, K.-H., Giorgetta, M., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C., Esch, M., Bittner, M., Legutke, S., Schupfner, M., Wachsmann, F., Gayler, V., Haak, H., de Vrese, P., Raddatz, T., Mauritsen, T., von Storch, J.-S., Behrens, J., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Hagemann, S., Hohenegger, C., Jahns, T., Kloster, S., Kinne, S., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Notz, D., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Rast, S., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K., Stevens, B., Voigt, A., and Roeckner, E.: CMIP6.CMIP.MPI-M.MPI-ESM1-2-LR.historical, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6595, 2019. a
Zhao, Y., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Yiou, P., and Marti, O.: Simulated changes in the relationship between tropical ocean temperatures and the western African monsoon during the mid-Holocene, Clim. Dynam., 28, 533–551, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0196-7, 2007. a
Short summary
Palaeoenvironmental records only provide a fragmentary picture of the lake and wetland extent in North Africa during the mid-Holocene. Therefore, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes caused by an estimated small and maximum lake extent and a maximum wetland extent. Results show a particularly strong monsoon precipitation response to lakes and wetlands over the Western Sahara and an increased monsoon precipitation when replacing lakes with vegetated wetlands.
Palaeoenvironmental records only provide a fragmentary picture of the lake and wetland extent in...
