Articles | Volume 13, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1539-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1539-2017
Research article
 | 
16 Nov 2017
Research article |  | 16 Nov 2017

Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

Natalie S. Lord, Michel Crucifix, Dan J. Lunt, Mike C. Thorne, Nabila Bounceur, Harry Dowsett, Charlotte L. O'Brien, and Andy Ridgwell

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Cited articles

Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09712, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl051607, 2012.
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., and Webb, M. J.: The dependence of radiative forcing and feedback on evolving patterns of surface temperature change in climate models, J Climate, 28, 1630–1648, https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-14-00545.1, 2015.
Andrianakis, I. and Challenor, P. G.: The effect of the nugget on Gaussian process emulators of computer models, Comput. Stat. Data An., 56, 4215–4228, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2012.04.020, 2012.
Araya-Melo, P. A., Crucifix, M., and Bounceur, N.: Global sensitivity analysis of the Indian monsoon during the Pleistocene, Clim. Past, 11, 45–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-45-2015, 2015.
Archer, D.: Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 110, C09S05, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jc002625, 2005.
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Short summary
We present projections of long-term changes in climate, produced using a statistical emulator based on climate data from a state-of-the-art climate model. We use the emulator to model changes in temperature and precipitation over the late Pliocene (3.3–2.8 million years before present) and the next 200 thousand years. The impact of the Earth's orbit and the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on climate is assessed, and the data for the late Pliocene are compared to proxy temperature data.