Articles | Volume 13, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1539-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1539-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Nov 2017
Research article |
| 16 Nov 2017
Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future
Natalie S. Lord
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UJ, UK
Michel Crucifix
Université catholique de Louvain, Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Belgian National Fund for Scientific Research, Brussels, Belgium
Dan J. Lunt
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UJ, UK
Mike C. Thorne
Mike Thorne and Associates Limited, Quarry Cottage, Hamsterley, Bishop Auckland, Co. Durham, DL13 3NJ, UK
Nabila Bounceur
Université catholique de Louvain, Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Department of Applied Mathematics and Computational Science, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal. 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Harry Dowsett
Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center, US Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, USA
Charlotte L. O'Brien
Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
Andy Ridgwell
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UJ, UK
Department of Earth Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521, USA
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Speleothem record of mild and wet mid-Pleistocene climate in northeast Greenland G. Moseley et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abe1260
- Investigating Sensitivity of East Asian Monsoon to Orbital Forcing During the Late Pliocene Warm Period Q. Yan et al. 10.1029/2017JD027646
- Heat stress in Africa under high intensity climate change B. Parkes et al. 10.1007/s00484-022-02295-1
- A research and development roadmap to support applications of the enhanced BIOMASS methodology M. Thorne et al. 10.1088/1361-6498/ac66a3
- Diverse Regional Sensitivity of Summer Precipitation in East Asia to Ice Volume, CO2 and Astronomical Forcing A. Lyu et al. 10.1029/2020GL092005
- Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise T. Edwards et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y
- A Gaussian process emulator for simulating ice sheet–climate interactions on a multi-million-year timescale: CLISEMv1.0 J. Van Breedam et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021
- Calibration under Uncertainty Using Bayesian Emulation and History Matching: Methods and Illustration on a Building Energy Model D. Domingo et al. 10.3390/en17164014
- Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements S. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021RG000757
- Climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessment of solid radioactive waste disposal: Results of an initiative of the IAEA T. Lindborg et al. 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2017.12.006
- Orbitally Induced Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the Western North Pacific During the Mid‐Piacenzian Warm Period: A Modeling Perspective Q. Yan et al. 10.1029/2018PA003535
- Sensitivity of the Eocene climate to CO2 and orbital variability J. Keery et al. 10.5194/cp-14-215-2018
- A statistics-based reconstruction of high-resolution global terrestrial climate for the last 800,000 years M. Krapp et al. 10.1038/s41597-021-01009-3
- IPSL-CM5A2 – an Earth system model designed for multi-millennial climate simulations P. Sepulchre et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-3011-2020
- PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene–Pleistocene climate P. Holden et al. 10.5194/gmd-12-5137-2019
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Speleothem record of mild and wet mid-Pleistocene climate in northeast Greenland G. Moseley et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abe1260
- Investigating Sensitivity of East Asian Monsoon to Orbital Forcing During the Late Pliocene Warm Period Q. Yan et al. 10.1029/2017JD027646
- Heat stress in Africa under high intensity climate change B. Parkes et al. 10.1007/s00484-022-02295-1
- A research and development roadmap to support applications of the enhanced BIOMASS methodology M. Thorne et al. 10.1088/1361-6498/ac66a3
- Diverse Regional Sensitivity of Summer Precipitation in East Asia to Ice Volume, CO2 and Astronomical Forcing A. Lyu et al. 10.1029/2020GL092005
- Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise T. Edwards et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y
- A Gaussian process emulator for simulating ice sheet–climate interactions on a multi-million-year timescale: CLISEMv1.0 J. Van Breedam et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021
- Calibration under Uncertainty Using Bayesian Emulation and History Matching: Methods and Illustration on a Building Energy Model D. Domingo et al. 10.3390/en17164014
- Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements S. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021RG000757
- Climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessment of solid radioactive waste disposal: Results of an initiative of the IAEA T. Lindborg et al. 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2017.12.006
- Orbitally Induced Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the Western North Pacific During the Mid‐Piacenzian Warm Period: A Modeling Perspective Q. Yan et al. 10.1029/2018PA003535
- Sensitivity of the Eocene climate to CO2 and orbital variability J. Keery et al. 10.5194/cp-14-215-2018
- A statistics-based reconstruction of high-resolution global terrestrial climate for the last 800,000 years M. Krapp et al. 10.1038/s41597-021-01009-3
- IPSL-CM5A2 – an Earth system model designed for multi-millennial climate simulations P. Sepulchre et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-3011-2020
- PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene–Pleistocene climate P. Holden et al. 10.5194/gmd-12-5137-2019
Latest update: 29 Jul 2025
Short summary
We present projections of long-term changes in climate, produced using a statistical emulator based on climate data from a state-of-the-art climate model. We use the emulator to model changes in temperature and precipitation over the late Pliocene (3.3–2.8 million years before present) and the next 200 thousand years. The impact of the Earth's orbit and the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on climate is assessed, and the data for the late Pliocene are compared to proxy temperature data.
We present projections of long-term changes in climate, produced using a statistical emulator...
