Emulation of long-term changes in global climate:  application to the late Pliocene and future

Lord, Natalie S.; Crucifix, Michel; Lunt, Dan J.; Thorne, Mike C.; Bounceur, Nabila; Dowsett, Harry; O'Brien, Charlotte L.; Ridgwell, Andy

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1539-2017

Articles | Volume 13, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1539-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1539-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 13, issue 11

Research article

|

16 Nov 2017

Research article |

| 16 Nov 2017

Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

Natalie S. Lord, Michel Crucifix, Dan J. Lunt, Mike C. Thorne, Nabila Bounceur, Harry Dowsett, Charlotte L. O'Brien, and Andy Ridgwell

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Final revised paper (published on 16 Nov 2017)
Preprint (discussion started on 26 Apr 2017)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Review', Andrey Ganopolski, 06 Jun 2017
- SC1: 'Emulation can handle non-linearity', Michel Crucifix, 13 Jun 2017
RC2: 'Review #2', Anonymous Referee #2, 21 Jun 2017
EC1: 'Editor comment', Luke Skinner, 11 Jul 2017
AC1: 'Response to Reviewers', Natalie Lord, 08 Sep 2017

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish as is (06 Oct 2017) by Luke Skinner

AR by Natalie Lord on behalf of the Authors (11 Oct 2017) Manuscript

Short summary

We present projections of long-term changes in climate, produced using a statistical emulator based on climate data from a state-of-the-art climate model. We use the emulator to model changes in temperature and precipitation over the late Pliocene (3.3–2.8 million years before present) and the next 200 thousand years. The impact of the Earth's orbit and the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on climate is assessed, and the data for the late Pliocene are compared to proxy temperature data.