Articles | Volume 21, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Feb 2025
Research article |
| 07 Feb 2025
| 07 Feb 2025
Assessment of the southern polar and subpolar warming in the PMIP4 last interglacial simulations using paleoclimate data syntheses
Qinggang Gao
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Ice Dynamics and Paleoclimate, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
now at: School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Emilie Capron
Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
Louise C. Sime
Ice Dynamics and Paleoclimate, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Rachael H. Rhodes
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Rahul Sivankutty
Ice Dynamics and Paleoclimate, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Ice Dynamics and Paleoclimate, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Martin Werner
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
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Lauren R. Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Andrew P. Schurer, Nathan Luke Abraham, Lucie J. Lücke, Rob Wilson, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Myriam Khodri, and Kohei Yoshida
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Inès Ollivier, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Barbara Stenni, Laurent Arnaud, Mathieu Casado, Alexandre Cauquoin, Giuliano Dreossi, Christophe Genthon, Bénédicte Minster, Ghislain Picard, Martin Werner, and Amaëlle Landais
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The role of post-depositional processes taking place at the ice sheet's surface on the water stable isotope signal measured in polar ice cores is not fully understood. Using field observations and modelling results, we show that the original precipitation isotopic signal at Dome C, East Antarctica, is modified by post-depositional processes and provide the first quantitative estimation of their mean impact on the isotopic signal observed in the snow.
Daniele Zannoni, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Harald Sodemann, Iris Thurnherr, Cyrille Flamant, Patrick Chazette, Julien Totems, Martin Werner, and Myriam Raybaut
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3394, 2025
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High resolution airborne observations reveal that mixing between the free troposphere and surface evapotranspiration flux primarly modulates the water vapor isotopic composition in the lower troposphere. Water vapor isotopes structure variations occur on the scale of 100s of m, underlying the utility of stable isotopes for studying microscale atmospheric dynamics. This study also provides the basis for better validation of water vapor isotopes remote sensing retrievals with surface observations.
Frédéric Parrenin, Marie Bouchet, Christo Buizert, Emilie Capron, Ellen Corrick, Russell Drysdale, Kenji Kawamura, Amaëlle Landais, Robert Mulvaney, Ikumi Oyabu, and Sune Olander Rasmussen
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Sentia Goursaud Oger, Louise C. Sime, and Max Holloway
Clim. Past, 20, 2539–2560, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2539-2024, 2024
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Antarctic ice cores provide information about past temperatures. Here, we run new climate model simulations, including stable water isotopes for the historical period. Across one-third of Antarctica, there is no strong connection between isotopes and temperature and a weak connection for most of the rest of Antarctica. This disconnect between isotopes and temperature is largely driven by changes in Antarctic sea ice. Our results are helpful for temperature reconstructions from ice core records.
Helene Hoffmann, Jason Day, Rachael H. Rhodes, Mackenzie Grieman, Jack Humby, Isobel Rowell, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Robert Mulvaney, Sally Gibson, and Eric Wolff
The Cryosphere, 18, 4993–5013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4993-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4993-2024, 2024
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John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Francesco Muschitiello, and Keno Riechers
Clim. Past, 20, 2431–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024, 2024
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Mira Berdahl, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Robert A. Tomas, Nathan M. Urban, Ian Miller, Harriet Morgan, and Eric J. Steig
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Rachael H. Rhodes, Yvan Bollet-Quivogne, Piers Barnes, Mirko Severi, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 20, 2031–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2031-2024, 2024
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Giuliano Dreossi, Mauro Masiol, Barbara Stenni, Daniele Zannoni, Claudio Scarchilli, Virginia Ciardini, Mathieu Casado, Amaëlle Landais, Martin Werner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Giampietro Casasanta, Massimo Del Guasta, Vittoria Posocco, and Carlo Barbante
The Cryosphere, 18, 3911–3931, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3911-2024, 2024
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Oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes have been extensively used to reconstruct past temperatures, with precipitation representing the input signal of the isotopic records in ice cores. We present a 10-year record of stable isotopes in daily precipitation at Concordia Station: this is the longest record for inland Antarctica and represents a benchmark for quantifying post-depositional processes and improving the paleoclimate interpretation of ice cores.
Romilly Harris Stuart, Amaëlle Landais, Laurent Arnaud, Christo Buizert, Emilie Capron, Marie Dumont, Quentin Libois, Robert Mulvaney, Anaïs Orsi, Ghislain Picard, Frédéric Prié, Jeffrey Severinghaus, Barbara Stenni, and Patricia Martinerie
The Cryosphere, 18, 3741–3763, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3741-2024, 2024
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Ice core δO2/N2 records are useful dating tools due to their local insolation pacing. A precise understanding of the physical mechanism driving this relationship, however, remain ambiguous. By compiling data from 15 polar sites, we find a strong dependence of mean δO2/N2 on accumulation rate and temperature in addition to the well-documented insolation dependence. Snowpack modelling is used to investigate which physical properties drive the mechanistic dependence on these local parameters.
Dominique Raynaud, Qiuzhen Yin, Emilie Capron, Zhipeng Wu, Frédéric Parrenin, André Berger, and Vladimir Lipenkov
Clim. Past, 20, 1269–1282, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1269-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1269-2024, 2024
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There is a lack of reconstructions from Antarctic ice cores of the temperature during the summer, a critical season in terms of solar energy received, preventing a good understanding of the link between Antarctic past climate and astronomically induced insolation changes. Here, the variations in total air content in an Antarctic ice core are found to be correlated to local summer temperatures simulated with a climate model. This tracer can be used to reconstruct past local summer temperatures.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Xiangyu Li, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1067–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, 2024
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Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mid-Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) cause the Southern Ocean surface to become fresher and warmer, which affects the global ocean circulation. The CO2 concentration and the smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet both have a similar and approximately equal impact on the Southern Ocean. The conditions of the Southern Ocean in the mid-Pliocene could therefore be analogous to those in a future climate with smaller ice sheets.
Amaelle Landais, Cécile Agosta, Françoise Vimeux, Olivier Magand, Cyrielle Solis, Alexandre Cauquoin, Niels Dutrievoz, Camille Risi, Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos, Elise Fourré, Olivier Cattani, Olivier Jossoud, Bénédicte Minster, Frédéric Prié, Mathieu Casado, Aurélien Dommergue, Yann Bertrand, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4611–4634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4611-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4611-2024, 2024
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We have monitored water vapor isotopes since January 2020 on Amsterdam Island in the Indian Ocean. We show 11 periods associated with abrupt negative excursions of water vapor δ18Ο. Six of these events show a decrease in gaseous elemental mercury, suggesting subsidence of air from a higher altitude. Accurately representing the water isotopic signal during these cold fronts is a real challenge for the atmospheric components of Earth system models equipped with water isotopes.
Moein Mellat, Amy R. Macfarlane, Camilla F. Brunello, Martin Werner, Martin Schneebeli, Ruzica Dadic, Stefanie Arndt, Kaisa-Riikka Mustonen, Jeffrey M. Welker, and Hanno Meyer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-719, 2024
Preprint archived
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Our research, utilizing data from the Arctic MOSAiC expedition, reveals how snow on Arctic sea ice changes due to weather conditions. By analyzing snow samples collected over a year, we found differences in snow layers that tell us about their origins and how they've been affected by the environment. We discovered variations in snow and vapour that reflect the influence of weather patterns and surface processes like wind and sublimation.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
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Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Sarah L. Bradley, Raymond Sellevold, Michele Petrini, Miren Vizcaino, Sotiria Georgiou, Jiang Zhu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Marcus Lofverstrom
Clim. Past, 20, 211–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, 2024
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was the most recent period with large ice sheets in Europe and North America. We provide a detailed analysis of surface mass and energy components for two time periods that bracket the LGM: 26 and 21 ka BP. We use an earth system model which has been adopted for modern ice sheets. We find that all Northern Hemisphere ice sheets have a positive surface mass balance apart from the British and Irish ice sheets and the North American ice sheet complex.
Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos, Elise Fourré, Cécile Agosta, Mathieu Casado, Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, Benedicte Minster, Frédéric Prié, Olivier Jossoud, Leila Petit, and Amaëlle Landais
The Cryosphere, 17, 5241–5254, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5241-2023, 2023
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In the face of global warming, understanding the changing water cycle and temperatures in polar regions is crucial. These factors directly impact the balance of ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic. By studying the composition of water vapor, we gain insights into climate variations. Our 2-year study at Dumont d’Urville station, Adélie Land, offers valuable data to refine models. Additionally, we demonstrate how modeling aids in interpreting signals from ice core samples in the region.
Takashi Obase, Laurie Menviel, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Tristan Vadsaria, Ruza Ivanovic, Brooke Snoll, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Paul Valdes, Lauren Gregoire, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Roche, Fanny Lhardy, Chengfei He, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Zhengyu Liu, and Wing-Le Chan
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-86, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
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This study analyses transient simulations of the last deglaciation performed by six climate models to understand the processes driving southern high latitude temperature changes. We find that atmospheric CO2 changes and AMOC changes are the primary drivers of the major warming and cooling during the middle stage of the deglaciation. The multi-model analysis highlights the model’s sensitivity of CO2, AMOC to meltwater, and the meltwater history on temperature changes in southern high latitudes.
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
Xavier Faïn, David M. Etheridge, Kévin Fourteau, Patricia Martinerie, Cathy M. Trudinger, Rachael H. Rhodes, Nathan J. Chellman, Ray L. Langenfelds, Joseph R. McConnell, Mark A. J. Curran, Edward J. Brook, Thomas Blunier, Grégory Teste, Roberto Grilli, Anthony Lemoine, William T. Sturges, Boris Vannière, Johannes Freitag, and Jérôme Chappellaz
Clim. Past, 19, 2287–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2287-2023, 2023
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We report on a 3000-year record of carbon monoxide (CO) levels in the Southern Hemisphere's high latitudes by combining ice core and firn air measurements with modern direct atmospheric samples. Antarctica [CO] remained stable (–835 to 1500 CE), decreased during the Little Ice Age, and peaked around 1985 CE. Such evolution reflects stable biomass burning CO emissions before industrialization, followed by growth from CO anthropogenic sources, which decline after 1985 due to improved combustion.
Marie Bouchet, Amaëlle Landais, Antoine Grisart, Frédéric Parrenin, Frédéric Prié, Roxanne Jacob, Elise Fourré, Emilie Capron, Dominique Raynaud, Vladimir Ya Lipenkov, Marie-France Loutre, Thomas Extier, Anders Svensson, Etienne Legrain, Patricia Martinerie, Markus Leuenberger, Wei Jiang, Florian Ritterbusch, Zheng-Tian Lu, and Guo-Min Yang
Clim. Past, 19, 2257–2286, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2257-2023, 2023
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A new federative chronology for five deep polar ice cores retrieves 800 000 years of past climate variations with improved accuracy. Precise ice core timescales are key to studying the mechanisms linking changes in the Earth’s orbit to the diverse climatic responses (temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations). To construct the chronology, new measurements from the oldest continuous ice core as well as glaciological modeling estimates were combined in a statistical model.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Hu Yang, Roberta D'Agostino, Jiping Liu, Chaoyuan Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 19, 2157–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, 2023
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marks the most recent extremely cold and dry time period of our planet. Using AWI-ESM, we quantify the relative importance of Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHG) and ice sheets (IS) in determining the LGM climate. Our results suggest that both GHG and IS play important roles in shaping the LGM temperature. Continental ice sheets exert a major control on precipitation, atmospheric dynamics, and the intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Stephen Hunter, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood
Clim. Past, 19, 2053–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, 2023
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We investigate the Maritime Continent climate in the mid-Piacenzian warm period and find it is warmer and wetter and the sea surface salinity is lower compared with preindustrial period. Besides, the fresh and warm water transfer through the Maritime Continent was stronger. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models in the multimodel results, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean, which could reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the multimodel mean.
Ryan Love, Lev Tarasov, Heather Andres, Alan Condron, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, 2023
Preprint archived
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Freshwater injection into bands across the North Atlantic are a mainstay of climate modelling when investigating topics such as climate change or the role of glacial runoff in the glacial climate system. However, this approach is unrealistic and results in a systematic bias in the climate response to a given flux of freshwater. We evaluate the magnitude of this bias by comparison to two other approaches for introducing freshwater into a coupled climate model setup for glacial conditions.
Xiaoxu Shi, Alexandre Cauquoin, Gerrit Lohmann, Lukas Jonkers, Qiang Wang, Hu Yang, Yuchen Sun, and Martin Werner
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5153–5178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, 2023
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We developed a new climate model with isotopic capabilities and simulated the pre-industrial and mid-Holocene periods. Despite certain regional model biases, the modeled isotope composition is in good agreement with observations and reconstructions. Based on our analyses, the observed isotope–temperature relationship in polar regions may have a summertime bias. Using daily model outputs, we developed a novel isotope-based approach to determine the onset date of the West African summer monsoon.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Takashi Obase, Wing-Le Chan, André Paul, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 19, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1275-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1275-2023, 2023
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Stable water isotopes are tracers of climate processes occurring in the hydrological cycle. They are widely used to reconstruct the past variations of polar temperature before the instrumental era thanks to their measurements in ice cores. However, the relationship between measured isotopes and temperature has large uncertainties. In our study, we investigate how the sea surface conditions (temperature, sea ice, ocean circulation) impact this relationship for a cold to warm climate change.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, and the D–O community members
Clim. Past, 19, 915–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, 2023
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Greenland ice core records feature Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events, abrupt warming episodes followed by a gradual-cooling phase during mid-glacial periods. There is uncertainty whether current climate models can effectively represent the processes that cause D–O events. Here, we propose a Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS3) baseline protocol which is intended to provide modelling groups investigating D–O oscillations with a common framework.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Vallet-Malmierca, Agatha M. de Boer, and Marie Sicard
Clim. Past, 19, 883–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, 2023
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It is not known if the Last Interglacial (LIG) experienced Arctic summers that were sea ice free: models show a wide spread in LIG Arctic temperature and sea ice results. Evaluation against sea ice markers is hampered by few observations. Here, an assessment of 11 climate model simulations against summer temperatures shows that the most skilful models have a 74 %–79 % reduction in LIG sea ice. The measurements of LIG areas indicate a likely mix of ice-free and near-ice-free LIG summers.
Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Jeff Ridley, and David Schroeder
Clim. Past, 19, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, 2023
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We investigate the response of the atmosphere, ocean, and ice domains to the release of a large volume of glacial meltwaters thought to have occurred during the Last Interglacial period. We show that the signal that originated in the North Atlantic travels over great distances across the globe. It modifies the ocean gyre circulation in the Northern Hemisphere as well as the belt of westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere, with consequences for Antarctic sea ice.
Robert Mulvaney, Eric W. Wolff, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Helene H. Hoffmann, Jack D. Humby, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Rachael H. Rhodes, Isobel F. Rowell, Frédéric Parrenin, Loïc Schmidely, Hubertus Fischer, Thomas F. Stocker, Marcus Christl, Raimund Muscheler, Amaelle Landais, and Frédéric Prié
Clim. Past, 19, 851–864, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-851-2023, 2023
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We present an age scale for a new ice core drilled at Skytrain Ice Rise, an ice rise facing the Ronne Ice Shelf in Antarctica. Various measurements in the ice and air phases are used to match the ice core to other Antarctic cores that have already been dated, and a new age scale is constructed. The 651 m ice core includes ice that is confidently dated to 117 000–126 000 years ago, in the last interglacial. Older ice is found deeper down, but there are flow disturbances in the deeper ice.
Qinggang Gao, Christian Zeman, Jesus Vergara-Temprado, Daniela C. A. Lima, Peter Molnar, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 189–211, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-189-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-189-2023, 2023
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We developed a vortex identification algorithm for realistic atmospheric simulations. The algorithm enabled us to obtain a climatology of vortex shedding from Madeira Island for a 10-year simulation period. This first objective climatological analysis of vortex streets shows consistency with observed atmospheric conditions. The analysis shows a pronounced annual cycle with an increasing vortex shedding rate from April to August and a sudden decrease in September.
François Burgay, Rafael Pedro Fernández, Delia Segato, Clara Turetta, Christopher S. Blaszczak-Boxe, Rachael H. Rhodes, Claudio Scarchilli, Virginia Ciardini, Carlo Barbante, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, and Andrea Spolaor
The Cryosphere, 17, 391–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-391-2023, 2023
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The paper presents the first ice-core record of bromine (Br) in the Antarctic plateau. By the observation of the ice core and the application of atmospheric chemical models, we investigate the behaviour of bromine after its deposition into the snowpack, with interest in the effect of UV radiation change connected to the formation of the ozone hole, the role of volcanic deposition, and the possible use of Br to reconstruct past sea ice changes from ice core collect in the inner Antarctic plateau.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Zixuan Han, Alan M. Haywood, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, 2023
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We study the behavior of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Pliocene. The mid-Pliocene was about 3 million years ago and had a similar CO2 concentration to today. We show that the stronger AMOC during this period relates to changes in geography and that this has a significant influence on ocean temperatures and heat transported northwards by the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the behavior of the mid-Pliocene AMOC can help us to learn more about our future climate.
Jiajia Wang, Hongxi Pang, Shuangye Wu, Spruce W. Schoenemann, Ryu Uemura, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Sentia Goursaud Oger, Summer Rupper, and Shugui Hou
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-384, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-384, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Stable water isotopic observations in surface snow over Antarctica provide a basis for validating isotopic models and interpreting Antarctic ice core records. This study presents a new compilation of Antarctic surface snow isotopic dataset based on published and unpublished sources. The database has a wide range of potential applications in studying spatial distribution of water isotopes, model validation, and reconstruction and interpretation of Antarctic ice core records.
Antoine Grisart, Mathieu Casado, Vasileios Gkinis, Bo Vinther, Philippe Naveau, Mathieu Vrac, Thomas Laepple, Bénédicte Minster, Frederic Prié, Barbara Stenni, Elise Fourré, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Jean Jouzel, Martin Werner, Katy Pol, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Maria Hoerhold, Trevor Popp, and Amaelle Landais
Clim. Past, 18, 2289–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, 2022
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This paper presents a compilation of high-resolution (11 cm) water isotopic records, including published and new measurements, for the last 800 000 years from the EPICA Dome C ice core, Antarctica. Using this new combined water isotopes (δ18O and δD) dataset, we study the variability and possible influence of diffusion at the multi-decadal to multi-centennial scale. We observe a stronger variability at the onset of the interglacial interval corresponding to a warm period.
Xavier Crosta, Karen E. Kohfeld, Helen C. Bostock, Matthew Chadwick, Alice Du Vivier, Oliver Esper, Johan Etourneau, Jacob Jones, Amy Leventer, Juliane Müller, Rachael H. Rhodes, Claire S. Allen, Pooja Ghadi, Nele Lamping, Carina B. Lange, Kelly-Anne Lawler, David Lund, Alice Marzocchi, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Abhilash Nair, Molly Patterson, Jennifer Pike, Joseph G. Prebble, Christina Riesselman, Henrik Sadatzki, Louise C. Sime, Sunil K. Shukla, Lena Thöle, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Wenshen Xiao, and Jiao Yang
Clim. Past, 18, 1729–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, 2022
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Despite its importance in the global climate, our knowledge of Antarctic sea-ice changes throughout the last glacial–interglacial cycle is extremely limited. As part of the Cycles of Sea Ice Dynamics in the Earth system (C-SIDE) Working Group, we review marine- and ice-core-based sea-ice proxies to provide insights into their applicability and limitations. By compiling published records, we provide information on Antarctic sea-ice dynamics over the past 130 000 years.
Janica C. Bühler, Josefine Axelsson, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Jens Fohlmeister, Allegra N. LeGrande, Madhavan Midhun, Jesper Sjolte, Martin Werner, Kei Yoshimura, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 18, 1625–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, 2022
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We collected and standardized the output of five isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium and assess differences and similarities to records from a global speleothem database. Modeled isotope variations mostly arise from temperature differences. While lower-resolution speleothems do not capture extreme changes to the extent of models, they show higher variability on multi-decadal timescales. As no model excels in all comparisons, we advise a multi-model approach where possible.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
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Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Xavier Faïn, Rachael H. Rhodes, Philip Place, Vasilii V. Petrenko, Kévin Fourteau, Nathan Chellman, Edward Crosier, Joseph R. McConnell, Edward J. Brook, Thomas Blunier, Michel Legrand, and Jérôme Chappellaz
Clim. Past, 18, 631–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-631-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-631-2022, 2022
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Carbon monoxide (CO) is a regulated pollutant and one of the key components determining the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. In this study, we analyzed five ice cores from Greenland at high resolution for CO concentrations by coupling laser spectrometry with continuous melting. By combining these new datasets, we produced an upper-bound estimate of past atmospheric CO abundance since preindustrial times for the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, covering the period from 1700 to 1957 CE.
Sebastian Hinck, Evan J. Gowan, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 16, 941–965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022, 2022
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Proglacial lakes were pervasive along the retreating continental ice margins after the Last Glacial Maximum. Similarly to the marine ice boundary, interactions at the ice-lake interface impact ice sheet dynamics and mass balance. Previous numerical ice sheet modeling studies did not include a dynamical lake boundary. We describe the implementation of an adaptive lake boundary condition in PISM and apply the model to the glacial retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.
Erin L. McClymont, Michael J. Bentley, Dominic A. Hodgson, Charlotte L. Spencer-Jones, Thomas Wardley, Martin D. West, Ian W. Croudace, Sonja Berg, Darren R. Gröcke, Gerhard Kuhn, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Louise Sime, and Richard A. Phillips
Clim. Past, 18, 381–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, 2022
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Sea ice is important for our climate system and for the unique ecosystems it supports. We present a novel way to understand past Antarctic sea-ice ecosystems: using the regurgitated stomach contents of snow petrels, which nest above the ice sheet but feed in the sea ice. During a time when sea ice was more extensive than today (24 000–30 000 years ago), we show that snow petrel diet had varying contributions of fish and krill, which we interpret to show changing sea-ice distribution.
Matthew Chadwick, Claire S. Allen, Louise C. Sime, Xavier Crosta, and Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand
Clim. Past, 18, 129–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-129-2022, 2022
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Algae preserved in marine sediments have allowed us to reconstruct how much winter sea ice was present around Antarctica during a past time period (130 000 years ago) when the climate was warmer than today. The patterns of sea-ice increase and decrease vary between different parts of the Southern Ocean. The Pacific sector has a largely stable sea-ice extent, whereas the amount of sea ice in the Atlantic sector is much more variable with bigger decreases and increases than other regions.
Stephan Krätschmer, Michèlle van der Does, Frank Lamy, Gerrit Lohmann, Christoph Völker, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 18, 67–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, 2022
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We use an atmospheric model coupled to an aerosol model to investigate the global mineral dust cycle with a focus on the Southern Hemisphere for warmer and colder climate states and compare our results to observational data. Our findings suggest that Australia is the predominant source of dust deposited over Antarctica during the last glacial maximum. In addition, we find that the southward transport of dust from all sources to Antarctica happens at lower altitudes in colder climates.
Zixuan Han, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Nan Rosenbloom, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Jianbo Cheng, Qin Wen, and Natalie J. Burls
Clim. Past, 17, 2537–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, 2021
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Understanding the potential processes responsible for large-scale hydrological cycle changes in a warmer climate is of great importance. Our study implies that an imbalance in interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate cycling. Moreover, a robust westward shift in the Pacific Walker circulation can moisten the northern Indian Ocean.
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
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In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
Rachel Diamond, Louise C. Sime, David Schroeder, and Maria-Vittoria Guarino
The Cryosphere, 15, 5099–5114, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021, 2021
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The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3) is the first coupled climate model to simulate an ice-free summer Arctic during the Last Interglacial (LIG), 127 000 years ago, and yields accurate Arctic surface temperatures. We investigate the causes and impacts of this extreme simulated ice loss and, in particular, the role of melt ponds.
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
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We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
Saeid Bagheri Dastgerdi, Melanie Behrens, Jean-Louis Bonne, Maria Hörhold, Gerrit Lohmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 15, 4745–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, 2021
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In this study, for the first time, water vapour isotope measurements in Antarctica for all seasons of a year are performed. Local temperature is identified as the main driver of δ18O and δD variability. A similar slope of the temperature–δ18O relationship in vapour and surface snow points to the water vapour isotope content as a potential key driver. This dataset can be used as a new dataset to evaluate the capability of isotope-enhanced climate models.
Ellen Berntell, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, William Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Esther C. Brady
Clim. Past, 17, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, 2021
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The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3.2 Ma) is often considered an analogue for near-future climate projections, and model results from the PlioMIP2 ensemble show an increase of rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region compared to pre-industrial conditions. Though previous studies of future projections show a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, these results indicate a uniform rainfall increase over the Sahel in warm climates characterized by increased greenhouse gas forcing.
Marcus Breil, Emanuel Christner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, Melanie Karremann, and Gerd Schädler
Clim. Past, 17, 1685–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1685-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1685-2021, 2021
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For the first time an isotope-enabled regional climate simulation for Greenland is performed for the mid-Holocene. Simulation results are compared with observed isotope ratios in ice cores. Compared to global climate simulations, a regional downscaling improves the agreement with measured isotope concentrations. Thus, an isotope-enabled regional climate simulation constitutes a useful supplement to reconstruct regional paleo-climate conditions during the mid-Holocene in Greenland.
Thomas Münch, Martin Werner, and Thomas Laepple
Clim. Past, 17, 1587–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1587-2021, 2021
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We analyse Holocene climate model simulation data to find the locations of Antarctic ice cores which are best suited to reconstruct local- to regional-scale temperatures. We find that the spatial decorrelation scales of the temperature variations and of the noise from precipitation intermittency set an effective sampling length scale. Following this, a single core should be located at the
target site for the temperature reconstruction, and a second one optimally lies more than 500 km away.
Sarah E. Parker, Sandy P. Harrison, Laia Comas-Bru, Nikita Kaushal, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 1119–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, 2021
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Regional trends in the oxygen isotope (δ18O) composition of stalagmites reflect several climate processes. We compare stalagmite δ18O records from monsoon regions and model simulations to identify the causes of δ18O variability over the last 12 000 years, and between glacial and interglacial states. Precipitation changes explain the glacial–interglacial δ18O changes in all monsoon regions; Holocene trends are due to a combination of precipitation, atmospheric circulation and temperature changes.
Janica C. Bühler, Carla Roesch, Moritz Kirschner, Louise Sime, Max D. Holloway, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 17, 985–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, 2021
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We present three new isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium (850–1850 CE) and compare them to records from a global speleothem database. Offsets between the simulated and measured oxygen isotope ratios are fairly small. While modeled oxygen isotope ratios are more variable on decadal timescales, proxy records are more variable on (multi-)centennial timescales. This could be due to a lack of long-term variability in complex model simulations, but proxy biases cannot be excluded.
Iris Thurnherr, Katharina Hartmuth, Lukas Jansing, Josué Gehring, Maxi Boettcher, Irina Gorodetskaya, Martin Werner, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 331–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, 2021
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Extratropical cyclones are important for the transport of moisture from low to high latitudes. In this study, we investigate how the isotopic composition of water vapour is affected by horizontal temperature advection associated with extratropical cyclones using measurements and modelling. It is shown that air–sea moisture fluxes induced by this horizontal temperature advection lead to the strong variability observed in the isotopic composition of water vapour in the marine boundary layer.
André Paul, Stefan Mulitza, Rüdiger Stein, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-805-2021, 2021
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Maps and fields of near-sea-surface temperature differences between the past and present can be used to visualize and quantify climate changes and perform simulations with climate models. We used a statistical method to map sparse and scattered data for the Last Glacial Maximum time period (23 000 to 19 000 years before present) to a regular grid. The estimated global and tropical cooling would imply an equilibrium climate sensitivity in the lower to middle part of the currently accepted range.
Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Odd Helge Otterå, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther Brady, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Julia E. Weiffenbach, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Julia C. Tindall, Charles Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Wing-Le Chan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 17, 529–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, 2021
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important topic in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project. Previous studies have suggested a much stronger AMOC during the Pliocene than today. However, our current multi-model intercomparison shows large model spreads and model–data discrepancies, which can not support the previous hypothesis. Our study shows good consistency with future projections of the AMOC.
Daniel J. Lunt, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, David K. Hutchinson, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Polina Morozova, Igor Niezgodzki, Sebastian Steinig, Zhongshi Zhang, Jiang Zhu, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Eleni Anagnostou, Agatha M. de Boer, Helen K. Coxall, Yannick Donnadieu, Gavin Foster, Gordon N. Inglis, Gregor Knorr, Petra M. Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Gerrit Lohmann, Christopher J. Poulsen, Pierre Sepulchre, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny M. Volodin, Tom Dunkley Jones, Christopher J. Hollis, Matthew Huber, and Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 17, 203–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, 2021
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This paper presents the first modelling results from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP), in which we focus on the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO, 50 million years ago). We show that, in contrast to previous work, at least three models (CESM, GFDL, and NorESM) produce climate states that are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature and polar amplification, and they achieve this at a CO2 concentration that is consistent with the CO2 proxy record.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
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The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
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The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, Paul J. Valdes, and Julia C. Tindall
Clim. Past, 16, 2485–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, 2020
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020
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The simulations for the past climate can inform us about the performance of climate models in different climate scenarios. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), when the CO2 level was comparable to today. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in the model simulations and imply that we must be careful when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Harry J. Dowsett, Aisling M. Dolan, Kevin M. Foley, Stephen J. Hunter, Daniel J. Hill, Wing-Le Chan, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Youichi Kamae, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Esther C. Brady, Anna S. von der Heydt, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 16, 2095–2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, 2020
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The large-scale features of middle Pliocene climate from the 16 models of PlioMIP Phase 2 are presented. The PlioMIP2 ensemble average was ~ 3.2 °C warmer and experienced ~ 7 % more precipitation than the pre-industrial era, although there are large regional variations. PlioMIP2 broadly agrees with a new proxy dataset of Pliocene sea surface temperatures. Combining PlioMIP2 and proxy data suggests that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would increase globally averaged temperature by 2.6–4.8 °C.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
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This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Jesper Sjolte, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Raimund Muscheler, Christophe Sturm, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 16, 1737–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, 2020
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In this study we investigate seasonal climate reconstructions produced by matching climate model output to ice core and tree-ring data, and we evaluate the model–data reconstructions against meteorological observations. The reconstructions capture the main patterns of variability in sea level pressure and temperature in summer and winter. The performance of the reconstructions depends on seasonal climate variability itself, and definitions of seasons can be optimized to capture this variability.
Jean-Louis Bonne, Hanno Meyer, Melanie Behrens, Julia Boike, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Benjamin Rabe, Toni Schmidt, Lutz Schönicke, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10493–10511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, 2020
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This study introduces 2 years of continuous near-surface in situ observations of the stable isotopic composition of water vapour in parallel with precipitation in north-eastern Siberia. We evaluate the atmospheric transport of moisture towards the region of our observations with simulations constrained by meteorological reanalyses and use this information to interpret the temporal variations of the vapour isotopic composition from seasonal to synoptic timescales.
Erin L. McClymont, Heather L. Ford, Sze Ling Ho, Julia C. Tindall, Alan M. Haywood, Montserrat Alonso-Garcia, Ian Bailey, Melissa A. Berke, Kate Littler, Molly O. Patterson, Benjamin Petrick, Francien Peterse, A. Christina Ravelo, Bjørg Risebrobakken, Stijn De Schepper, George E. A. Swann, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Jessica E. Tierney, Carolien van der Weijst, Sarah White, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Anna S. von der Heydt, Stephen Hunter, Xiangyi Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 16, 1599–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, 2020
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We examine the sea-surface temperature response to an interval of climate ~ 3.2 million years ago, when CO2 concentrations were similar to today and the near future. Our geological data and climate models show that global mean sea-surface temperatures were 2.3 to 3.2 ºC warmer than pre-industrial climate, that the mid-latitudes and high latitudes warmed more than the tropics, and that the warming was particularly enhanced in the North Atlantic Ocean.
Anders Svensson, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Thomas Blunier, Sune O. Rasmussen, Bo M. Vinther, Paul Vallelonga, Emilie Capron, Vasileios Gkinis, Eliza Cook, Helle Astrid Kjær, Raimund Muscheler, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Frank Wilhelms, Thomas F. Stocker, Hubertus Fischer, Florian Adolphi, Tobias Erhardt, Michael Sigl, Amaelle Landais, Frédéric Parrenin, Christo Buizert, Joseph R. McConnell, Mirko Severi, Robert Mulvaney, and Matthias Bigler
Clim. Past, 16, 1565–1580, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1565-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1565-2020, 2020
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We identify signatures of large bipolar volcanic eruptions in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during the last glacial period, which allows for a precise temporal alignment of the ice cores. Thereby the exact timing of unexplained, abrupt climatic changes occurring during the last glacial period can be determined in a global context. The study thus provides a step towards a full understanding of elements of the climate system that may also play an important role in the future.
Charles J. R. Williams, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Emilie Capron, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Joy S. Singarayer, Louise C. Sime, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 16, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, 2020
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Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from two simulations using the latest version of the UK's climate model, the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) and Last Interglacial (127 000 years ago). The simulations reproduce temperatures consistent with the pattern of incoming radiation. Model–data comparisons indicate that some regions (and some seasons) produce better matches to the data than others.
Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Benjamin D. Stocker, Sebastian Lienert, Jurek Müller, Hubertus Fischer, Jochen Schmitt, I. Colin Prentice, Bette Otto-Bliesner, and Zhengyu Liu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3511–3543, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, 2020
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Results of the first globally resolved simulations of terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (N) cycling and N2O emissions over the past 21 000 years are compared with reconstructed N2O emissions. Modelled and reconstructed emissions increased strongly during past abrupt warming events. This evidence appears consistent with a dynamic response of biological N fixation to increasing N demand by ecosystems, thereby reducing N limitation of plant productivity and supporting a land sink for atmospheric CO2.
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
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Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Xingxing Liu, Youbin Sun, Jef Vandenberghe, Peng Cheng, Xu Zhang, Evan J. Gowan, Gerrit Lohmann, and Zhisheng An
Clim. Past, 16, 315–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-315-2020, 2020
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The East Asian summer monsoon and winter monsoon are anticorrelated on a centennial timescale during 16–1 ka. The centennial monsoon variability is connected to changes of both solar activity and North Atlantic cooling events during the Early Holocene. Then, North Atlantic cooling became the major forcing of events during the Late Holocene. This work presents the great challenge and potential to understand the response of the monsoon system to global climate changes in the past and the future.
Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, David Schroeder, Grenville M. S. Lister, and Rosalyn Hatcher
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 139–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-139-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-139-2020, 2020
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When the same weather or climate simulation is run on different high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, model outputs may not be identical for a given initial condition. Here, we investigate the behaviour of the Preindustrial simulation prepared by the UK Met Office for the forthcoming CMIP6 under different computing environments. Discrepancies between the means of key climate variables were analysed at different timescales, from decadal to centennial.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
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We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell N. Drysdale, Philip L. Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3649–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, 2019
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As part of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). This design includes time-varying changes in orbital forcing, greenhouse gas concentrations, continental ice sheets as well as freshwater input from the disintegration of continental ice sheets. Key paleo-records for model-data comparison are also included.
Laia Comas-Bru, Sandy P. Harrison, Martin Werner, Kira Rehfeld, Nick Scroxton, Cristina Veiga-Pires, and SISAL working group members
Clim. Past, 15, 1557–1579, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019, 2019
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We use an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled climate model to provide a protocol for using speleothem isotopic data for model evaluation, including screening the observations and the optimum period for the modern observational baseline. We also illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotopic values during any time period could be used for model evaluation.
James A. Menking, Edward J. Brook, Sarah A. Shackleton, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Michael N. Dyonisius, Vasilii Petrenko, Joseph R. McConnell, Rachael H. Rhodes, Thomas K. Bauska, Daniel Baggenstos, Shaun Marcott, and Stephen Barker
Clim. Past, 15, 1537–1556, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1537-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1537-2019, 2019
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An ice core from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica, spans a period ~ 70 000 years ago when Earth entered the last ice age. Chemical analyses of the ice and air bubbles allow for an independent determination of the ages of the ice and gas bubbles. The difference between the age of the ice and the bubbles at any given depth, called ∆age, is unusually high in the Taylor Glacier core compared to the Taylor Dome ice core situated to the south. This implies a dramatic accumulation gradient between the sites.
Xin Yang, Markus M. Frey, Rachael H. Rhodes, Sarah J. Norris, Ian M. Brooks, Philip S. Anderson, Kouichi Nishimura, Anna E. Jones, and Eric W. Wolff
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8407–8424, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8407-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8407-2019, 2019
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This is a comprehensive model–data comparison aiming to evaluate the proposed mechanism of sea salt aerosol (SSA) production from blowing snow on sea ice. Some key parameters such as snow salinity and blowing-snow size distribution were constrained by data collected in the Weddell Sea. The good agreement between modelled SSA and the cruise data strongly indicates that sea ice surface is a large SSA source in polar regions, a process which has not been considered in current climate models.
Tobias Erhardt, Emilie Capron, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Simon Schüpbach, Matthias Bigler, Florian Adolphi, and Hubertus Fischer
Clim. Past, 15, 811–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-811-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-811-2019, 2019
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The cause of the rapid warming events documented in proxy records across the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial has been a long-standing puzzle in paleo-climate research. Here, we use high-resolution ice-core data from to cores in Greenland to investigate the progression during the onset of these events on multi-annual timescales to test their plausible triggers. We show that atmospheric circulation changes preceded the warming in Greenland and the collapse of the sea ice by a decade.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Suzanne Preunkert, Michel Legrand, Bénédicte Minster, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 13, 1297–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1297-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1297-2019, 2019
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We report new water stable isotope records from the first highly resolved firn core drilled in Adélie Land and covering 1998–2014. Using an updated database, we show that mean values are in line with the range of coastal values. Statistical analyses show no relationship between our record and local surface air temperature. Atmospheric back trajectories and isotopic simulations suggest that water stable isotopes in Adélie provide a fingerprint of the variability of atmospheric dynamics.
François Klein, Nerilie J. Abram, Mark A. J. Curran, Hugues Goosse, Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Andrew Moy, Raphael Neukom, Anaïs Orsi, Jesper Sjolte, Nathan Steiger, Barbara Stenni, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019
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Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
Amaëlle Landais, Emilie Capron, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Samuel Toucanne, Rachael Rhodes, Trevor Popp, Bo Vinther, Bénédicte Minster, and Frédéric Prié
Clim. Past, 14, 1405–1415, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1405-2018, 2018
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During the last glacial–interglacial climate transition (120 000 to 10 000 years before present), Greenland climate and midlatitude North Atlantic climate and water cycle vary in phase over the succession of millennial events. We identify here one notable exception to this behavior with a decoupling unambiguously identified through a combination of water isotopic tracers measured in a Greenland ice core. The midlatitude moisture source becomes warmer and wetter at 16 200 years before present.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell Drysdale, Philip Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
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The penultimate deglaciation (~ 138–128 ka), which represents the transition into the Last Interglacial period, provides a framework to investigate the climate and environmental response to large changes in boundary conditions. Here, as part of the PAGES-PMIP working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation as well as a selection of paleo records for upcoming model-data comparisons.
Jesper Sjolte, Christophe Sturm, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 14, 1179–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, 2018
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Tropical volcanic eruptions and variations in solar activity have been suggested to influence the strength of westerly winds across the North Atlantic. We use Greenland ice core records together with a climate model simulation, and find stronger westerly winds for five winters following tropical volcanic eruptions. We see a delayed response to solar activity of 5 years, and the response to solar minima corresponds well to the cooling pattern during the period known as the Little Ice Age.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Anaïs Orsi, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 14, 923–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-923-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-923-2018, 2018
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Atmospheric general circulation models equipped with water stable isotopes are key tools to explore the links between climate variables and precipitation isotopic composition and thus to quantify past temperature changes using ice core records. Here, we evaluate the skills of ECHAM5-wiso to simulate the spatio-temporal characteristics of Antarctic climate and precipitation isotopic composition at the regional scale, thanks to a database of precipitation and ice core records.
Sebastian G. Mutz, Todd A. Ehlers, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, Christian Stepanek, and Jingmin Li
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 271–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, 2018
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We use a climate model and statistics to provide an overview of regional climates from different times in the late Cenozoic. We focus on tectonically active mountain ranges in particular. Our results highlight significant changes in climates throughout the late Cenozoic, which should be taken into consideration when interpreting erosion rates. We also document the differences between model- and proxy-based estimates for late Cenozoic climate change in South America and Tibet.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
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The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
Akil Hossain, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-9, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-9, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
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Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
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Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
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The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Rachael H. Rhodes, Xin Yang, Eric W. Wolff, Joseph R. McConnell, and Markus M. Frey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9417–9433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9417-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9417-2017, 2017
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Sea salt aerosol comes from the open ocean or the sea ice surface. In the polar regions, this opens up the possibility of reconstructing sea ice history using sea salt recorded in ice cores. We use a chemical transport model to demonstrate that the sea ice source of aerosol is important in the Arctic. For the first time, we simulate realistic Greenland ice core sea salt in a process-based model. The importance of the sea ice source increases from south to north across the Greenland ice sheet.
Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Eleni Anagnostou, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Rodrigo Caballero, Rob DeConto, Henk A. Dijkstra, Yannick Donnadieu, David Evans, Ran Feng, Gavin L. Foster, Ed Gasson, Anna S. von der Heydt, Chris J. Hollis, Gordon N. Inglis, Stephen M. Jones, Jeff Kiehl, Sandy Kirtland Turner, Robert L. Korty, Reinhardt Kozdon, Srinath Krishnan, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Petra Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Allegra N. LeGrande, Kate Littler, Paul Markwick, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Paul Pearson, Christopher J. Poulsen, Ulrich Salzmann, Christine Shields, Kathryn Snell, Michael Stärz, James Super, Clay Tabor, Jessica E. Tierney, Gregory J. L. Tourte, Aradhna Tripati, Garland R. Upchurch, Bridget S. Wade, Scott L. Wing, Arne M. E. Winguth, Nicky M. Wright, James C. Zachos, and Richard E. Zeebe
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 889–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, 2017
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In this paper we describe the experimental design for a set of simulations which will be carried out by a range of climate models, all investigating the climate of the Eocene, about 50 million years ago. The intercomparison of model results is called 'DeepMIP', and we anticipate that we will contribute to the next IPCC report through an analysis of these simulations and the geological data to which we will compare them.
Matthias Schneider, Christian Borger, Andreas Wiegele, Frank Hase, Omaira E. García, Eliezer Sepúlveda, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 507–525, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-507-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-507-2017, 2017
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The characteristics of {H2O,δD} pair space-based remote sensing data depend on the atmospheric and surface conditions, which compromises their usage for model evaluation studies. This paper shows how the problem can be overcome by simulating MUSICA MetOp/IASI {H2O,δD} remote sensing products for any given model atmosphere. The remote sensing retrieval simulator is freely provided as a MATLAB and Python routine.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Susanne Preunkert, Michel Fily, Hubert Gallée, Bruno Jourdain, Michel Legrand, Olivier Magand, Bénédicte Minster, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 11, 343–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-343-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-343-2017, 2017
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Uncertainty of sea level changes is a challenge. As Antarctica is the biggest water reservoir, it is necessary to know how it will contribute. To be able to simulate it, an understanding of past climate is to be achieved, for instance, by studying the ice cores. As climate change is different in different regions, observations are needed all over the continent. Studying an ice core in Adélie Land, we can conclude that there are no changes there at decadal scale over the period 1947–2007.
Olivia J. Maselli, Nathan J. Chellman, Mackenzie Grieman, Lawrence Layman, Joseph R. McConnell, Daniel Pasteris, Rachael H. Rhodes, Eric Saltzman, and Michael Sigl
Clim. Past, 13, 39–59, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-39-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-39-2017, 2017
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We analysed two Greenland ice cores for methanesulfonate (MSA) and bromine (Br) and concluded that both species are suitable proxies for local sea ice conditions. Interpretation of the records reveals that there have been sharp declines in sea ice in these areas in the past 250 years. However, at both sites the Br record deviates from MSA during the industrial period, raising questions about the value of Br as a sea ice proxy during recent periods of high, industrial, atmospheric acid pollution.
Louise C. Sime, Dominic Hodgson, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Claire Allen, Bianca Perren, Stephen Roberts, and Agatha M. de Boer
Clim. Past, 12, 2241–2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2241-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2241-2016, 2016
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Latitudinal shifts in the Southern Ocean westerly wind jet could explain large observed changes in the glacial to interglacial ocean CO2 inventory. However there is considerable disagreement in modelled deglacial-warming jet shifts. Here multi-model output is used to show that expansion of sea ice during the glacial period likely caused a slight poleward shift and intensification in the westerly wind jet. Issues with model representation of the winds caused much of the previous disagreement.
Michael Deininger, Martin Werner, and Frank McDermott
Clim. Past, 12, 2127–2143, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, 2016
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This study investigates the NAO (Northern Atlantic Oscillation)-related mechanisms that control winter precipitation stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients across Europe. The results show that past longitudinal stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients in European rainfall stored in palaeoclimate archives (e.g. speleothems) can be used to infer the past winter NAO modes from its variations.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Emma J. Stone, Emilie Capron, Daniel J. Lunt, Antony J. Payne, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 12, 1919–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1919-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1919-2016, 2016
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Climate models forced only with greenhouse gas concentrations and orbital parameters representative of the early Last Interglacial are unable to reproduce the observed colder-than-present temperatures in the North Atlantic and the warmer-than-present temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere. Using a climate model forced also with a freshwater amount derived from data representing melting from the remnant Northern Hemisphere ice sheets accounts for this response via the bipolar seesaw mechanism.
Amaelle Landais, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Emilie Capron, Petra M. Langebroek, Pepijn Bakker, Emma J. Stone, Niklaus Merz, Christoph C. Raible, Hubertus Fischer, Anaïs Orsi, Frédéric Prié, Bo Vinther, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
Clim. Past, 12, 1933–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, 2016
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The last lnterglacial (LIG; 116 000 to 129 000 years before present) surface temperature at the upstream Greenland NEEM deposition site is estimated to be warmer by +7 to +11 °C compared to the preindustrial period. We show that under such warm temperatures, melting of snow probably led to a significant surface melting. There is a paradox between the extent of the Greenland ice sheet during the LIG and the strong warming during this period that models cannot solve.
François Ritter, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Martin Werner, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Anais Orsi, Melanie Behrens, Gerit Birnbaum, Johannes Freitag, Camille Risi, and Sepp Kipfstuhl
The Cryosphere, 10, 1647–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1647-2016, 2016
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We present successful continuous measurements of water vapor isotopes performed in Antarctica in January 2013. The interest is to understand the impact of the water vapor isotopic composition on the near-surface snow isotopes. Our study reveals a diurnal cycle in the snow isotopic composition in phase with the vapor. This finding suggests fractionation during the sublimation of the ice, which has an important consequence on the interpretation of water isotope variations in ice cores.
Anna Dittmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Jordan G. Powers, Kevin W. Manning, Martin Werner, and Koji Fujita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6883–6900, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6883-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6883-2016, 2016
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For a better understanding of the stable water isotope data from ice cores, recent time periods have to be analysed, where both measurements and model simulations are available. This was done for Dome Fuji by combining observations, synoptic analysis, back trajectories, and isotopic modelling. It was found that a more northerly moisture source does not necessarily mean a larger temperature difference between source area and deposition site and thus precipitation more depleted in heavy isotopes.
Rachael H. Rhodes, Xavier Faïn, Edward J. Brook, Joseph R. McConnell, Olivia J. Maselli, Michael Sigl, Jon Edwards, Christo Buizert, Thomas Blunier, Jérôme Chappellaz, and Johannes Freitag
Clim. Past, 12, 1061–1077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1061-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1061-2016, 2016
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Local artifacts in ice core methane data are superimposed on consistent records of past atmospheric variability. These artifacts are not related to past atmospheric history and care should be taken to avoid interpreting them as such. By investigating five polar ice cores from sites with different conditions, we relate isolated methane spikes to melt layers and decimetre-scale variations as "trapping signal" associated with a difference in timing of air bubble closure in adjacent firn layers.
Michael Sigl, Tyler J. Fudge, Mai Winstrup, Jihong Cole-Dai, David Ferris, Joseph R. McConnell, Ken C. Taylor, Kees C. Welten, Thomas E. Woodruff, Florian Adolphi, Marion Bisiaux, Edward J. Brook, Christo Buizert, Marc W. Caffee, Nelia W. Dunbar, Ross Edwards, Lei Geng, Nels Iverson, Bess Koffman, Lawrence Layman, Olivia J. Maselli, Kenneth McGwire, Raimund Muscheler, Kunihiko Nishiizumi, Daniel R. Pasteris, Rachael H. Rhodes, and Todd A. Sowers
Clim. Past, 12, 769–786, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-769-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-769-2016, 2016
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Here we present a chronology (WD2014) for the upper part (0–2850 m; 31.2 ka BP) of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core, which is based on layer counting of distinctive annual cycles preserved in the elemental, chemical and electrical conductivity records. We validated the chronology by comparing it to independent high-accuracy, absolutely dated chronologies. Given its demonstrated high accuracy, WD2014 can become a reference chronology for the Southern Hemisphere.
Fergus W. Howell, Alan M. Haywood, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Youichi Kamae, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nan A. Rosenbloom, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 12, 749–767, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-749-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-749-2016, 2016
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Simulations of pre-industrial and mid-Pliocene Arctic sea ice by eight GCMs are analysed. Ensemble variability in sea ice extent is greater in the mid-Pliocene summer, when half of the models simulate sea-ice-free conditions. Weaker correlations are seen between sea ice extent and temperatures in the pre-industrial era compared to the mid-Pliocene. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances.
Lucie Bazin, Amaelle Landais, Emilie Capron, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Catherine Ritz, Ghislain Picard, Jean Jouzel, Marie Dumont, Markus Leuenberger, and Frédéric Prié
Clim. Past, 12, 729–748, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-729-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-729-2016, 2016
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We present new measurements of δO2⁄N2 and δ18Oatm performed on well-conserved ice from EDC covering MIS5 and between 380 and 800 ka. The combination of the observation of a 100 ka periodicity in the new δO2⁄N2 record with a MIS5 multi-site multi-proxy study has revealed a potential influence of local climatic parameters on δO2⁄N2. Moreover, we propose that the varying delay between d18Oatm and precession for the last 800 ka is affected by the occurrence of ice sheet discharge events.
Alan M. Haywood, Harry J. Dowsett, Aisling M. Dolan, David Rowley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Mark A. Chandler, Stephen J. Hunter, Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Pound, and Ulrich Salzmann
Clim. Past, 12, 663–675, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-663-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-663-2016, 2016
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Our paper presents the experimental design for the second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). We outline the way in which climate models should be set up in order to study the Pliocene – a period of global warmth in Earth's history which is relevant for our understanding of future climate change. By conducting a model intercomparison we hope to understand the uncertainty associated with model predictions of a warmer climate.
M. Werner, B. Haese, X. Xu, X. Zhang, M. Butzin, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 647–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, 2016
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This paper presents the first results of a new isotope-enabled GCM set-up, based on the ECHAM5/MPI-OM fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Results of two equilibrium simulations under pre-industrial and Last Glacial Maximum conditions reveal a good to very good agreement with many delta O-18 and delta D observational records, and a remarkable improvement for the modelling of the deuterium excess signal in Antarctic ice cores.
A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, M. Kageyama, P. Braconnot, S. P. Harrison, K. Lambeck, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, W. R. Peltier, L. Tarasov, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, and K. Takahashi
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3621–3637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, 2015
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We describe the creation of boundary conditions related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and altitude of ice-free land, at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), for use in LGM experiments conducted as part of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The difference in the ice sheet boundary conditions as well as the climate response to them are discussed.
S. Jasechko, A. Lechler, F. S. R. Pausata, P. J. Fawcett, T. Gleeson, D. I. Cendón, J. Galewsky, A. N. LeGrande, C. Risi, Z. D. Sharp, J. M. Welker, M. Werner, and K. Yoshimura
Clim. Past, 11, 1375–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, 2015
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In this study we compile global isotope proxy records of climate changes from the last ice age to the late-Holocene preserved in cave calcite, glacial ice and groundwater aquifers. We show that global patterns of late-Pleistocene to late-Holocene precipitation isotope shifts are consistent with stronger-than-modern isotopic distillation of air masses during the last ice age, likely impacted by larger global temperature differences between the tropics and the poles.
V. Masson-Delmotte, H. C. Steen-Larsen, P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, T. Popp, B. M. Vinther, H. Oerter, A. E. Sveinbjornsdottir, H. Gudlaugsdottir, J. E. Box, S. Falourd, X. Fettweis, H. Gallée, E. Garnier, V. Gkinis, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, N. Paradis, A. Orsi, C. Risi, M. Werner, and J. W. C. White
The Cryosphere, 9, 1481–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, 2015
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The deep NEEM ice core provides the oldest Greenland ice core record, enabling improved understanding of the response of ice core records to local climate. Here, we focus on shallow ice cores providing a stack record of accumulation and water-stable isotopes spanning the past centuries. For the first time, we document the ongoing warming in a Greenland ice core. By combining our data with other Greenland ice cores and model results, we characterise the spatio-temporal patterns of variability.
A. Jahn, K. Lindsay, X. Giraud, N. Gruber, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, Z. Liu, and E. C. Brady
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2419–2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2419-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2419-2015, 2015
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Carbon isotopes have been added to the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). This paper describes the details of how the abiotic 14C tracer and the biotic 13C and 14C tracers were added to the existing ocean model of the CESM. In addition, it shows the first results of the new model features compared to observational data for the 1990s.
S. J. Allin, J. C. Laube, E. Witrant, J. Kaiser, E. McKenna, P. Dennis, R. Mulvaney, E. Capron, P. Martinerie, T. Röckmann, T. Blunier, J. Schwander, P. J. Fraser, R. L. Langenfelds, and W. T. Sturges
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6867–6877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6867-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6867-2015, 2015
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Stratospheric ozone protects life on Earth from harmful UV-B radiation. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are man-made compounds which act to destroy this barrier.
This paper presents (1) the first measurements of the stratospheric δ(37Cl) of CFCs -11 and -113; (2) the first quantification of long-term trends in the tropospheric δ(37Cl) of CFCs -11, -12 and -113.
This study provides a better understanding of source and sink processes associated with these destructive compounds.
S. Albani, N. M. Mahowald, G. Winckler, R. F. Anderson, L. I. Bradtmiller, B. Delmonte, R. François, M. Goman, N. G. Heavens, P. P. Hesse, S. A. Hovan, S. G. Kang, K. E. Kohfeld, H. Lu, V. Maggi, J. A. Mason, P. A. Mayewski, D. McGee, X. Miao, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. T. Perry, A. Pourmand, H. M. Roberts, N. Rosenbloom, T. Stevens, and J. Sun
Clim. Past, 11, 869–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-869-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-869-2015, 2015
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We propose an innovative framework to organize paleodust records, formalized in a publicly accessible database, and discuss the emerging properties of the global dust cycle during the Holocene by integrating our analysis with simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model. We show how the size distribution of dust is intrinsically related to the dust mass accumulation rates and that only considering a consistent size range allows for a consistent analysis of the global dust cycle.
R. Eichinger, P. Jöckel, S. Brinkop, M. Werner, and S. Lossow
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5537–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, 2015
F. Parrenin, L. Bazin, E. Capron, A. Landais, B. Lemieux-Dudon, and V. Masson-Delmotte
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1473–1492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1473-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1473-2015, 2015
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This manuscript describes a probabilistic model which aims at optimizing the chronology of ice cores by combining different sources of information.
A. Cauquoin, A. Landais, G. M. Raisbeck, J. Jouzel, L. Bazin, M. Kageyama, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, M. Werner, E. Bard, and ASTER Team
Clim. Past, 11, 355–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-355-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-355-2015, 2015
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We present a new 10Be record at EDC between 269 and 355ka. Our 10Be-based accumulation rate is in good agreement with the one associated with the EDC3 timescale except for the warm MIS 9.3 optimum. This suggests that temperature reconstruction from water isotopes may be underestimated by 2.4K for the difference between the MIS 9.3 and present day. The CMIP5-PMIP3 models do not quantitatively reproduce changes in precipitation vs. temperature increase during glacial–interglacial transitions.
A. M. Dolan, S. J. Hunter, D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, S. J. Koenig, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 11, 403–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, 2015
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Climate and ice sheet models are often used to predict the nature of ice sheets in Earth history. It is important to understand whether such predictions are consistent among different models, especially in warm periods of relevance to the future. We use input from 15 different climate models to run one ice sheet model and compare the predictions over Greenland. We find that there are large differences between the predicted ice sheets for the warm Pliocene (c. 3 million years ago).
C. Buizert, K. M. Cuffey, J. P. Severinghaus, D. Baggenstos, T. J. Fudge, E. J. Steig, B. R. Markle, M. Winstrup, R. H. Rhodes, E. J. Brook, T. A. Sowers, G. D. Clow, H. Cheng, R. L. Edwards, M. Sigl, J. R. McConnell, and K. C. Taylor
Clim. Past, 11, 153–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-153-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-153-2015, 2015
M. F. Loutre, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, H. Goelzer, and E. Capron
Clim. Past, 10, 1541–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, 2014
N. V. Rokotyan, V. I. Zakharov, K. G. Gribanov, M. Schneider, F.-M. Bréon, J. Jouzel, R. Imasu, M. Werner, M. Butzin, C. Petri, T. Warneke, and J. Notholt
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2567–2580, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2567-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2567-2014, 2014
K. Gribanov, J. Jouzel, V. Bastrikov, J.-L. Bonne, F.-M. Breon, M. Butzin, O. Cattani, V. Masson-Delmotte, N. Rokotyan, M. Werner, and V. Zakharov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5943–5957, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5943-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5943-2014, 2014
M. Butzin, M. Werner, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, C. Frankenberg, K. Gribanov, J. Jouzel, and V. I. Zakharov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5853–5869, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5853-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5853-2014, 2014
X. Faïn, J. Chappellaz, R. H. Rhodes, C. Stowasser, T. Blunier, J. R. McConnell, E. J. Brook, S. Preunkert, M. Legrand, T. Debois, and D. Romanini
Clim. Past, 10, 987–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-987-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-987-2014, 2014
M. Baumgartner, P. Kindler, O. Eicher, G. Floch, A. Schilt, J. Schwander, R. Spahni, E. Capron, J. Chappellaz, M. Leuenberger, H. Fischer, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 10, 903–920, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-903-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-903-2014, 2014
F. Colleoni, S. Masina, A. Cherchi, A. Navarra, C. Ritz, V. Peyaud, and B. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 10, 269–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-269-2014, 2014
A. Basu, M. G. Schultz, S. Schröder, L. Francois, X. Zhang, G. Lohmann, and T. Laepple
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-3193-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-3193-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Lunt, S. J. Hunter, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, C. Stepanek, L. Sohl, N. A. Rosenbloom, W.-L. Chan, Y. Kamae, Z. Zhang, A. Abe-Ouchi, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, G. Lohmann, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 10, 79–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, 2014
X. Zhang, G. Lohmann, G. Knorr, and X. Xu
Clim. Past, 9, 2319–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, 2013
B. Haese, M. Werner, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1463–1480, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1463-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1463-2013, 2013
R. Zhang, Q. Yan, Z. S. Zhang, D. Jiang, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, C. Contoux, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 2085–2099, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, 2013
L. Bazin, A. Landais, B. Lemieux-Dudon, H. Toyé Mahamadou Kele, D. Veres, F. Parrenin, P. Martinerie, C. Ritz, E. Capron, V. Lipenkov, M.-F. Loutre, D. Raynaud, B. Vinther, A. Svensson, S. O. Rasmussen, M. Severi, T. Blunier, M. Leuenberger, H. Fischer, V. Masson-Delmotte, J. Chappellaz, and E. Wolff
Clim. Past, 9, 1715–1731, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1715-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1715-2013, 2013
D. Veres, L. Bazin, A. Landais, H. Toyé Mahamadou Kele, B. Lemieux-Dudon, F. Parrenin, P. Martinerie, E. Blayo, T. Blunier, E. Capron, J. Chappellaz, S. O. Rasmussen, M. Severi, A. Svensson, B. Vinther, and E. W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 9, 1733–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1733-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1733-2013, 2013
K. Saito, T. Sueyoshi, S. Marchenko, V. Romanovsky, B. Otto-Bliesner, J. Walsh, N. Bigelow, A. Hendricks, and K. Yoshikawa
Clim. Past, 9, 1697–1714, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013, 2013
Z.-S. Zhang, K. H. Nisancioglu, M. A. Chandler, A. M. Haywood, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, C. Stepanek, A. Abe-Ouchi, W.-L. Chan, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, A. M. Dolan, D. J. Hill, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. E. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 1495–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, 2013
E. Capron, A. Landais, D. Buiron, A. Cauquoin, J. Chappellaz, M. Debret, J. Jouzel, M. Leuenberger, P. Martinerie, V. Masson-Delmotte, R. Mulvaney, F. Parrenin, and F. Prié
Clim. Past, 9, 983–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-983-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-983-2013, 2013
N. A. Rosenbloom, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, E. C. Brady, and P. J. Lawrence
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 549–561, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-549-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-549-2013, 2013
C. Morrill, A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 9, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, 2013
M. Kageyama, U. Merkel, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Prange, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Lohmann, R. Ohgaito, D. M. Roche, J. Singarayer, D. Swingedouw, and X Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, 2013
A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, H. J. Dowsett, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. J. Pickering, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, U. Salzmann, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 191–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, 2013
G. Lohmann, A. Wackerbarth, P. M. Langebroek, M. Werner, J. Fohlmeister, D. Scholz, and A. Mangini
Clim. Past, 9, 89–98, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-89-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-89-2013, 2013
S. Dietrich, M. Werner, T. Spangehl, and G. Lohmann
Clim. Past, 9, 13–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Marine Archives | Timescale: Pleistocene
Effects of orbital forcing, greenhouse gases and ice sheets on Saharan greening in past and future multi-millennia
A new global surface temperature reconstruction for the Last Glacial Maximum
Evaluating seasonal sea-ice cover over the Southern Ocean at the Last Glacial Maximum
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences
From monsoon to marine productivity in the Arabian Sea: insights from glacial and interglacial climates
Oxygen stable isotopes during the Last Glacial Maximum climate: perspectives from data–model (iLOVECLIM) comparison
Last Glacial Maximum world ocean simulations at eddy-permitting and coarse resolutions: do eddies contribute to a better consistency between models and palaeoproxies?
Terminations VI and VIII (∼ 530 and ∼ 720 kyr BP) tell us the importance of obliquity and precession in the triggering of deglaciations
Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis?
Mateo Duque-Villegas, Martin Claussen, Victor Brovkin, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1897–1914, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1897-2022, 2022
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Using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we quantify contributions of the Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ice sheets to the strength of Saharan greening during late Quaternary African humid periods (AHPs). Orbital forcing is found as the dominant factor, having a critical threshold and accounting for most of the changes in the vegetation response. However, results suggest that GHGs may influence the orbital threshold and thus may play a pivotal role for future AHPs.
James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 18, 1883–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1883-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1883-2022, 2022
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We have created a new global surface temperature reconstruction of the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum, representing the period 19–23 000 years before the present day. We find that the globally averaged mean temperature was roughly 4.5 °C colder than it was in pre-industrial times, albeit there is significant uncertainty on this value.
Ryan A. Green, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Xavier Crosta, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 18, 845–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, 2022
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Climate models are used to predict future climate changes and as such, it is important to assess their performance in simulating past climate changes. We analyze seasonal sea-ice cover over the Southern Ocean simulated from numerical PMIP3, PMIP4 and LOVECLIM simulations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Comparing these simulations to proxy data, we provide improved estimates of LGM seasonal sea-ice cover. Our estimate of summer sea-ice extent is 20 %–30 % larger than previous estimates.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
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The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Priscilla Le Mézo, Luc Beaufort, Laurent Bopp, Pascale Braconnot, and Masa Kageyama
Clim. Past, 13, 759–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-759-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-759-2017, 2017
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This paper focuses on the relationship between Arabian Sea biological productivity and the Indian summer monsoon in climates of the last 72 kyr. A general circulation model coupled to a biogeochemistry model simulates the changes in productivity and monsoon intensity and pattern. The paradigm stating that a stronger summer monsoon enhances productivity is not always verified in our simulations. This work highlights the importance of considering the monsoon pattern in addition to its intensity.
T. Caley, D. M. Roche, C. Waelbroeck, and E. Michel
Clim. Past, 10, 1939–1955, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1939-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1939-2014, 2014
M. Ballarotta, L. Brodeau, J. Brandefelt, P. Lundberg, and K. Döös
Clim. Past, 9, 2669–2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2669-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2669-2013, 2013
F. Parrenin and D. Paillard
Clim. Past, 8, 2031–2037, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-2031-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-2031-2012, 2012
J. C. Hargreaves, A. Paul, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, and J. D. Annan
Clim. Past, 7, 917–933, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-917-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-917-2011, 2011
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Short summary
Marine sediment and ice core records suggest a warmer Southern Ocean and Antarctica at the early last interglacial, ~127 000 years ago. However, when only forced by orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations during that period, state-of-the-art climate models do not reproduce the magnitude of warming. Here we show that much of the warming at southern middle to high latitudes can be reproduced by a UK climate model, HadCM3, with a 3000-year freshwater forcing over the North Atlantic.
Marine sediment and ice core records suggest a warmer Southern Ocean and Antarctica at the early...
