Articles | Volume 16, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-783-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-783-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Apr 2020
Research article |
| 29 Apr 2020
| 29 Apr 2020
A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of Cedrus deodara D. Don from the Hindu Kush range of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations
Sarir Ahmad
Center for Ecological Research, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin
150040, China
Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management-Ministry of
Education, School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040,
China
Liangjun Zhu
Center for Ecological Research, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin
150040, China
Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management-Ministry of
Education, School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040,
China
Sumaira Yasmeen
Center for Ecological Research, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin
150040, China
Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management-Ministry of
Education, School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040,
China
Yuandong Zhang
Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Environment, State Forestry
Administration, Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection,
Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
Zongshan Li
State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center
for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085,
China
Sami Ullah
Department of Forestry, Shaheed Benazir Bhutto University, Sheringal,
Upper Dir 18000, Pakistan
Shijie Han
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
State Key Laboratory of Cotton Biology, School of Life Sciences, Henan
University, Kaifeng 475001, China
Center for Ecological Research, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin
150040, China
Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management-Ministry of
Education, School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040,
China
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Maierdang Keyimu, Zongshan Li, Bojie Fu, Guohua Liu, Fanjiang Zeng, Weiliang Chen, Zexin Fan, Keyan Fang, Xiuchen Wu, and Xiaochun Wang
Clim. Past, 17, 2381–2392, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2381-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2381-2021, 2021
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We created a residual tree-ring width chronology and reconstructed non-growth-season precipitation (NGSP) over the period spanning 1600–2005 in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP), China. Reconstruction model verification as well as similar variations of NGSP reconstruction and Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstructions from the surrounding region indicate the reliability of the present reconstruction. Our reconstruction is representative of NGSP variability of a large region in the SETP.
Liangjun Zhu, Shuguang Liu, Haifeng Zhu, David J. Cooper, Danyang Yuan, Yu Zhu, Zongshan Li, Yuandong Zhang, Hanxue Liang, Xu Zhang, Wenqi Song, and Xiaochun Wang
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-2, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-2, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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In this study, we take the temperature reconstruction for Changbai Mountains in northeast China as an example to illustrate a novel tree-species mixing reconstruction method, which clearly improve the accuracy of tree-ring-based reconstructions in areas with unstable growth-climate relationships. Our reconstruction is more accurate than previous temperature reconstructions developed from a single species. The AMO plays a key role in modulating temperature in the northern Changbai Mountains.
Liangjun Zhu, Qichao Yao, David J. Cooper, Shijie Han, and Xiaochun Wang
Clim. Past, 14, 1213–1228, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1213-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1213-2018, 2018
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This paper presents a 260-year tree-ring-based PDSI reconstruction for the central Daxing'an Mountains, northeast China. A warm–wet pattern was identified for the Daxing'an Mountains in recent decades, while a warm–dry pattern was found for the Mongolian Plateau. Overall, the dry/wet variability of the Daxing'an Mountains and its relationship with the surrounding areas might be driven by Pacific and Atlantic Ocean oscillations.
Shanna Lyu, Zongshan Li, Yuandong Zhang, and Xiaochun Wang
Clim. Past, 12, 1879–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1879-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1879-2016, 2016
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This study presents a 414-year growing season minimum temperature reconstruction based on Korean pine tree-ring series at Laobai Mountain, northeast China. It developed a more than 400-year climate record in this area for the first time. This reconstruction showed six cold periods, seven warm periods, and natural disaster records of extreme climate events.
Liangjun Zhu, Yuandong Zhang, Zongshan Li, Binde Guo, and Xiaochun Wang
Clim. Past, 12, 1485–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1485-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1485-2016, 2016
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We present a 368-year late summer maximum temperature reconstruction based on spruce tree rings. It touches on the critical topic of climate reconstruction in the eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau and represents an extension and enhancement of climate records for this area. The Little Ice Age was well represented and 20th century warming was not obvious in this reconstruction. This temperature variation may be affected by global land–sea atmospheric circulation as well as solar and volcanic forcing.
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Historical Records | Timescale: Centennial-Decadal
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Jérôme Lopez-Saez, Christophe Corona, Lenka Slamova, Matthias Huss, Valérie Daux, Kurt Nicolussi, and Markus Stoffel
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Glaciers in the European Alps have been retreating since the 1850s. Monitoring glacier mass balance is vital for understanding global changes, but only a few glaciers have long-term data. This study aims to reconstruct the mass balance of the Silvretta Glacier in the Swiss Alps using stable isotopes and tree ring proxies. Results indicate increased glacier mass until the 19th century, followed by a sharp decline after the Little Ice Age with accelerated losses due to anthropogenic warming.
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The newly developed series of wheat, rye, barley, and oats prices from Sušice (southwestern Bohemia) for the period 1725–1824 CE is used to demonstrate effects of weather, climate, socio-economic, and societal factors on their fluctuations, with particular attention paid to years with extremely high prices. Cold spring temperatures and wet conditions from winter to summer were reflected in very high grain prices.
Siying Chen, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Liang Emlyn Yang
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This study used 1,802 drought and 1,977 famine records from historical documents to reconstruct the spatial-temporal progression of the Chongzhen Drought (1627–1644) in China and its impact on famine. The advances: reconstructing the annual spatial patterns and regional series of drought; demonstrating drought as the primary factor triggering famine, contributing 2/3; finding a continuity of 2–3 years in drought’s impacts on famine; identifying the transmission pathway of the drought's impacts.
Grażyna Liczbińska, Jörg Peter Vögele, and Marek Brabec
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This study examines the relationship between temperature and precipitation as explanatory variables for the probability of death due to waterborne and airborne diseases in historical urban space. The lagged effects of temperature and precipitation on waterborne and airborne diseases were significant, except for the smooth lagged average monthly temperature effect for the latter. There was also significant spatial heterogeneity in the prevalence of deaths due to waterborne and airborne diseases.
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We study the climate signal in long harvest series from across Europe between the 16th and 18th centuries. The climate–harvest yield relationship is found to be relatively weak but regionally consistent and similar in strength and sign to modern climate–harvest yield relationships. The strongest climate–harvest yield patterns are a significant summer soil moisture signal in Sweden, a winter temperature and precipitation signal in Switzerland, and spring temperature signals in Spain.
Yuri Brugnara, Chantal Hari, Lucas Pfister, Veronika Valler, and Stefan Brönnimann
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We digitized dozens of weather journals containing temperature measurements from in and around Bern and Zurich. They cover over a century before the creation of a national weather service in Switzerland. With these data we could create daily temperature series for the two cities that span the last 265 years. We found that the pre-industrial climate on the Swiss Plateau was colder than suggested by previously available instrumental data sets and about 2.5 °C colder than the present-day climate.
Christian von Savigny, Anna Lange, Anne Hemkendreis, Christoph G. Hoffmann, and Alexei Rozanov
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This study investigates the possibility of inferring information on aerosol optical depth from photographs of historic paintings. The idea – which has been applied in previous studies – is very interesting because it would provide an archive of the atmospheric aerosol loading covering many centuries. We show that twilight colours depend not only on the aerosol optical thickness, but also on several other parameters, making a quantitative estimate of aerosol optical depth very difficult.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Zahradník, Péter Szabó, Kateřina Chromá, Petr Dobrovolný, Lukáš Dolák, Miroslav Trnka, Jan Řehoř, and Silvie Suchánková
Clim. Past, 18, 2155–2180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2155-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2155-2022, 2022
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Bark beetle outbreaks are important disturbances to Norway spruce forests. Their meteorological and climatological triggers are analysed for the main oubreaks over the territory of the Czech Republic based on newly created series of such outbreaks, covering the 1781–2021 CE period. The paper demonstrates the shift from windstorms as the main meteorological triggers of past outbreaks to effects of high temperatures and droughts together with windstorms in past decades.
George C. D. Adamson, David J. Nash, and Stefan W. Grab
Clim. Past, 18, 1071–1081, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1071-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1071-2022, 2022
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Descriptions of climate held in archives are a valuable source of past climate variability, but there is a large potential for error in assigning quantitative indices (e.g. −2, v. dry to +2, v. wet) to descriptive data. This is the first study to examine this uncertainty. We gave the same dataset to 71 postgraduate students and 6 professional scientists, findings that error can be minimized by taking an average of indices developed by eight postgraduates and only two professional climatologists.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Jiří Mikšovský, Petr Pišoft, Miroslav Trnka, Martin Možný, and Jan Balek
Clim. Past, 18, 935–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-935-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-935-2022, 2022
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The paper deals with 520-year series (1501–2020 CE) of temperature, precipitation, and four drought indices reconstructed from documentary evidence and instrumental observations for the Czech Lands. Basic features of their fluctuations, long-term trends, and periodicities as well as attribution to changes in external forcings and climate variability modes are analysed. Representativeness of Czech reconstructions at European scale is evaluated. The paper shows extreme character of past decades.
Santiago Gorostiza, Maria Antònia Martí Escayol, and Mariano Barriendos
Clim. Past, 17, 913–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-913-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-913-2021, 2021
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How did cities respond to drought during the 17th century? This article studies the strategies followed by the city government of Barcelona during the severely dry period from 1620 to 1650. Beyond the efforts to expand urban water supply sources and to improve the maintenance of the system, the city government decided to compile knowledge about water infrastructure into a book and to restrict access to it. This management strategy aimed to increase the city's control over water.
LingYun Tang, Neil Macdonald, Heather Sangster, Richard Chiverrell, and Rachel Gaulton
Clim. Past, 16, 1917–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1917-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1917-2020, 2020
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A historical drought series (since 1200 CE) for Shenyang, NE China, shows 20th century droughts comparable in magnitude to recent severe droughts. Drought resilience driven by early 20th century societal/cultural changes reduced loss of life compared with the 1887 and 1891 droughts. A longer temporal analysis from integrated precipitation and historical records shows an earlier onset to droughts. Regional standardised precipitation indices could provide early warnings for drought development.
Siying Chen, Yun Su, Xiuqi Fang, and Jia He
Clim. Past, 16, 1873–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1873-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1873-2020, 2020
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Private diaries are important sources of historical data for research on climate change. Through a case study of Yunshan Diary, authored by Bi Guo of the Yuan dynasty of China, this article demonstrates how to delve into climate information in ancient diaries, mainly including species distribution records, phenological records and daily weather descriptions. This article considers how to use these records to reconstruct climate change and extreme climatic events on various timescales.
Rüdiger Glaser and Michael Kahle
Clim. Past, 16, 1207–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1207-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1207-2020, 2020
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A new study on droughts in Germany since 1500 reveals the long-term trend of single extreme events, as well as drier periods. Extreme droughts appeared in 1540, 1590, 1615, 1706, 1834, 1893, 1921, 1949 and 2018. Like today, droughts had manifold impacts such as harvest failures, water deficits, low water levels and forest fires. This had different societal consequences ranging from famine, disease, rising prices, migration and riots leading to subsidies and discussions on climate change.
Kathleen Pribyl
Clim. Past, 16, 1027–1041, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1027-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1027-2020, 2020
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Droughts pose a climatic hazard that can have a profound impacts on past societies. Using documentary sources, this paper studies the occurrence and impacts of spring–summer droughts in pre-industrial England from 1200 to 1700. The impacts most relevant to human livelihood, including the agricultural and pastoral sectors of agrarian production, and public health are evaluated.
Rajmund Przybylak, Piotr Oliński, Marcin Koprowski, Janusz Filipiak, Aleksandra Pospieszyńska, Waldemar Chorążyczewski, Radosław Puchałka, and Henryk Paweł Dąbrowski
Clim. Past, 16, 627–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-627-2020, 2020
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The paper presents the main features of droughts in Poland in the period 996–2015 based on proxy data (documentary and dendrochronological) and instrumental measurements of precipitation. More than 100 droughts were found in documentary sources from the mid-15th century to the end of the 18th century with a maximum in the second halves of the 17th and, particularly, the 18th century. The long-term frequency of droughts in Poland has been stable for the last two or three centuries.
Ernesto Tejedor, Martín de Luis, Mariano Barriendos, José María Cuadrat, Jürg Luterbacher, and Miguel Ángel Saz
Clim. Past, 15, 1647–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1647-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1647-2019, 2019
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We developed a new dataset of historical documents by compiling records (rogation ceremonies) from 13 cities in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula (IP). These records were transformed into quantitative continuous data to develop drought indices (DIs). We regionalized them by creating three DIs (Ebro Valle, Mediterranean, and Mountain), which cover the period from 1650 to 1899 CE. We identified extreme drought years and periods which help to understand climate variability in the IP.
Thomas Labbé, Christian Pfister, Stefan Brönnimann, Daniel Rousseau, Jörg Franke, and Benjamin Bois
Clim. Past, 15, 1485–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1485-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1485-2019, 2019
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In this paper we present the longest grape harvest date (GHD) record reconstructed to date, i.e. Beaune (France, Burgundy) 1354–2018. Drawing on unedited archive material, the series is validated using the long Paris temperature series that goes back to 1658 and was used to assess April-to-July temperatures from 1354 to 2018. The distribution of extremely early GHD is uneven over the 664-year-long period of the series and mirrors the rapid global warming from 1988 to 2018.
Salvador Gil-Guirado, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, and Juan Pedro Montávez
Clim. Past, 15, 1303–1325, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1303-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1303-2019, 2019
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The historical climatology has remarkable research potentialities. However, historical climatology has some methodological limitations. This study presents a new methodology (COST) that allows us to perform climate reconstructions with monthly resolution. The variability of the climatic series obtained are coherent with previous studies. The new proposed method is objective and is not affected by social changes, which allows us to perform studies in regions with different languages and cultures.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Miroslav Trnka, Ladislava Řezníčková, Lukáš Dolák, and Oldřich Kotyza
Clim. Past, 15, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1-2019, 2019
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The paper analyses extreme droughts of the pre-instrumental period (1501–1803) over the territory of the recent Czech Republic. In total, 16 droughts were selected for spring, summer and autumn each and 14 droughts for summer half-year (Apr–Sep). They are characterized by very low values of drought indices, high temperatures, low precipitation and by the influence of high-pressure situations. Selected extreme droughts are described in more detail. Effect of droughts on grain prices are studied.
Rudolf Brázdil, Andrea Kiss, Jürg Luterbacher, David J. Nash, and Ladislava Řezníčková
Clim. Past, 14, 1915–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1915-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1915-2018, 2018
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The paper presents a worldwide state of the art of droughts fluctuations based on documentary data. It gives an overview of achievements related to different kinds of documentary evidence with their examples and an overview of papers presenting long-term drought chronologies over the individual continents, analysis of the most outstanding drought events, the influence of external forcing and large-scale climate drivers, and human impacts and responses. It recommends future research directions.
Shanna Lyu, Zongshan Li, Yuandong Zhang, and Xiaochun Wang
Clim. Past, 12, 1879–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1879-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1879-2016, 2016
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This study presents a 414-year growing season minimum temperature reconstruction based on Korean pine tree-ring series at Laobai Mountain, northeast China. It developed a more than 400-year climate record in this area for the first time. This reconstruction showed six cold periods, seven warm periods, and natural disaster records of extreme climate events.
Pierre Brigode, François Brissette, Antoine Nicault, Luc Perreault, Anna Kuentz, Thibault Mathevet, and Joël Gailhard
Clim. Past, 12, 1785–1804, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1785-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1785-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we apply a new hydro-climatic reconstruction method on the Caniapiscau Reservoir (Canada), compare the obtained streamflow time series against time series derived from dendrohydrology by other authors on the same catchment, and study the natural streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period. This new reconstruction is based on a historical reanalysis of global geopotential height fields and aims to produce daily streamflow time series (using a rainfall–runoff model).
J. Zheng, Z. Hua, Y. Liu, and Z. Hao
Clim. Past, 11, 1553–1561, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1553-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1553-2015, 2015
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In this paper we reconstruct the annual temperature anomalies in South Central China from 1850 to 2008, using phenodates of plants, snowfall days, and five tree-ring width chronologies. It is found that rapid warming has occurred since the 1990s, with an abrupt change around 1997, leading to unprecedented variability in warming; a cold interval dominated the 1860s, 1890s, and 1950s; warm decades occurred around 1850, 1870, and 1960; and the warmest decades were the 1990s–2000s.
R. Brázdil, P. Dobrovolný, M. Trnka, O. Kotyza, L. Řezníčková, H. Valášek, P. Zahradníček, and P. Štěpánek
Clim. Past, 9, 1985–2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1985-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1985-2013, 2013
Q. Ge, Z. Hao, J. Zheng, and X. Shao
Clim. Past, 9, 1153–1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1153-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1153-2013, 2013
H.-J. Lüdecke, A. Hempelmann, and C. O. Weiss
Clim. Past, 9, 447–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-447-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-447-2013, 2013
V. Daux, I. Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, P. Yiou, I. Chuine, E. Garnier, E. Le Roy Ladurie, O. Mestre, and J. Tardaguila
Clim. Past, 8, 1403–1418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1403-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1403-2012, 2012
Z.-X. Hao, J.-Y. Zheng, Q.-S. Ge, and W.-C. Wang
Clim. Past, 8, 1023–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1023-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1023-2012, 2012
F. Domínguez-Castro, P. Ribera, R. García-Herrera, J. M. Vaquero, M. Barriendos, J. M. Cuadrat, and J. M. Moreno
Clim. Past, 8, 705–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-705-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-705-2012, 2012
P. Yiou, I. García de Cortázar-Atauri, I. Chuine, V. Daux, E. Garnier, N. Viovy, C. van Leeuwen, A. K. Parker, and J.-M. Boursiquot
Clim. Past, 8, 577–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-577-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-577-2012, 2012
R. Brázdil, K. Chromá, H. Valášek, and L. Dolák
Clim. Past, 8, 467–481, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-467-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-467-2012, 2012
F. Domínguez-Castro, R. García-Herrera, P. Ribera, and M. Barriendos
Clim. Past, 6, 553–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-553-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-553-2010, 2010
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Short summary
This study provides the opportunity to extend climatic records to preindustrial periods in northern Pakistan. The reconstructed March–August PDSIs for the past 424 years, going back to 1593 CE, enable scientists to know how these areas were prone to climatic extremes in the past. The instrumental data are limited in Pakistan; however, the Cedrus deodara tree that preserves physical characteristics of past climatic variabilities can provide insight into the trend of climatic changes.
This study provides the opportunity to extend climatic records to preindustrial periods in...
