Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-2
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-2

  11 Jan 2021

11 Jan 2021

Review status: this discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Climate of the Past (CP). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.

Overcoming model instability in tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions using a multi-species method: A case study from the Changbai Mountains, northeastern China

Liangjun Zhu1,2, Shuguang Liu1, Haifeng Zhu3, David J. Cooper4, Danyang Yuan2, Yu Zhu1, Zongshan Li5, Yuandong Zhang6, Hanxue Liang7, Xu Zhang8, Wenqi Song2, and Xiaochun Wang2 Liangjun Zhu et al.
  • 1National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry & Ecology in South China, College of Life Science and Technology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
  • 2Center for Ecological Research and Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management-Ministry of Education, School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
  • 3Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100864, China
  • 4Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
  • 5State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China
  • 6Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Environment of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
  • 7Institute of Loess Plateau, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China
  • 8College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China

Abstract. The unstable sensitivity of growth-climate relationships greatly restricts tree-ring-based paleoclimate reconstructions, especially in areas with frequent divergence problems, such as the temperate zone in northeast China. Here, we propose an original tree-species mixing method to overcome this obstacle and improve the stability and reliability of reconstruction models. We take the tree-ring based growing-season minimum temperature reconstruction for the northern Changbai Mountains in northeast China as an example to illustrate the method. Compared with previous temperature reconstruction models, our reconstruction model is more stable and reliable and explains up to 68 % of the variance. It is also highly consistent with historical records and tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions from the nearby Xiaoxing'an Mountains and from across the Northern Hemisphere. Our reconstruction uses two different tree species and is more accurate than temperature reconstructions developed from a single species. Over the past 259 years (AD 1757–2015), five significant cold periods and five warm periods were identified. The reconstruction indicates rapid warming since the 1980s, which is consistent with other instrumental and reconstructed records. We also found the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation plays a crucial role in driving the growing-season minimum temperature in the northern Changbai Mountains.

Liangjun Zhu et al.

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on cp-2021-2', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Feb 2021
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Liangjun Zhu, 17 Apr 2021
  • CC1: 'Comment on cp-2021-2', Feng Chen, 05 Feb 2021
    • AC2: 'Reply on CC1', Liangjun Zhu, 17 Apr 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on cp-2021-2', Anonymous Referee #2, 28 Feb 2021
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Liangjun Zhu, 17 Apr 2021

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on cp-2021-2', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Feb 2021
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Liangjun Zhu, 17 Apr 2021
  • CC1: 'Comment on cp-2021-2', Feng Chen, 05 Feb 2021
    • AC2: 'Reply on CC1', Liangjun Zhu, 17 Apr 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on cp-2021-2', Anonymous Referee #2, 28 Feb 2021
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Liangjun Zhu, 17 Apr 2021

Liangjun Zhu et al.

Liangjun Zhu et al.

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Short summary
In this study, we take the temperature reconstruction for Changbai Mountains in northeast China as an example to illustrate a novel tree-species mixing reconstruction method, which clearly improve the accuracy of tree-ring-based reconstructions in areas with unstable growth-climate relationships. Our reconstruction is more accurate than previous temperature reconstructions developed from a single species. The AMO plays a key role in modulating temperature in the northern Changbai Mountains.