Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Apr 2018
Research article |
| 24 Apr 2018
Spatio-temporal variability of Arctic summer temperatures over the past 2 millennia
Johannes P. Werner
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Department for Earth Science,
University of Bergen, P.O. Box 7803, 5020 Bergen, Norway
Dmitry V. Divine
Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, 9296 Tromsø, Norway
Department of Mathematics and Statistics,
University of Tromsø – The Arctic University of Norway, 9037, Norway
Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist
Department of History, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Tine Nilsen
Department of Mathematics and Statistics,
University of Tromsø – The Arctic University of Norway, 9037, Norway
Pierre Francus
Centre – Eau Terre Environnement, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique,
490 rue de la couronne, Québec, QC G1K 9A9, Canada
GEOTOP Research Center, Montréal, H3C 3P8, Canada
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Clim. Past, 10, 1605–1631, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1605-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1605-2014, 2014
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Jörg Franke, Michael N. Evans, Andrew Schurer, and Gabriele C. Hegerl
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Detection and attribution is a statistical method to evaluate if external factors or random variability have caused climatic changes. We use for the first time a comparison of simulated and observed tree-ring width that circumvents many limitations of previous studies relying on climate reconstructions. We attribute variability in temperature-limited trees to strong volcanic eruptions and for the first time detect a spatial pattern in the growth of moisture-sensitive trees after eruptions.
Deming Yang and Gabriel J. Bowen
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Plant wax lipid ratios and their isotopes are used in vegetation and paleoclimate reconstructions. While studies often use either type of data, both can inform the mixing pattern of source plants. We developed a statistic model that evaluates ratios and isotopes together. Through case studies, we showed that the approach allows more detailed interpretations of vegetation and paleoclimate than traditional methods. This evolving framework can include more geochemical tracers in the future.
Philippa A. Higgins, Jonathan G. Palmer, Chris S. M. Turney, Martin S. Andersen, and Fiona Johnson
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We studied eight New Zealand tree species and identified differences in their responses to large volcanic eruptions. The response is dependent on the species and how well it can tolerate stress, but substantial within-species differences are also observed depending on site factors, including altitude and exposure. This has important implications for tree-ring temperature reconstructions because site selection and compositing methods can change the magnitude of observed volcanic cooling.
Kristina Seftigen, Marina V. Fonti, Brian Luckman, Miloš Rydval, Petter Stridbeck, Georg von Arx, Rob Wilson, and Jesper Björklund
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New proxies and improvements in existing methodologies are needed to advance paleoclimate research. This study explored dendroanatomy, the analysis of wood anatomical parameters in dated tree rings, of Engelmann spruce from the Columbia Icefield area, Canada, as a proxy of past temperatures. Our new parameters compare favorably with state of the art proxy parameters from X-ray and visible light techniques, particularly with respect to the temporal stability of the temperature signal.
Antoine Gagnon-Poiré, Pierre Brigode, Pierre Francus, David Fortin, Patrick Lajeunesse, Hugues Dorion, and Annie-Pier Trottier
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In general, it is not easy to reconstruct past climate variations over a wide band of frequencies using a single proxy. Here, we propose a new method to reconstruct past summer climate seamlessly from annual to millennial timescales by integrating tree-ring cellulose oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios. The result can be utilized to investigate various scales of climatological phenomena in the past and climate–society relationships in long human history.
Martine M. Savard and Valérie Daux
Clim. Past, 16, 1223–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1223-2020, 2020
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Climatic reconstructions based on tree-ring isotopic series convey key information on past conditions prevailing in forested regions. However, in some cases, the relations between isotopes and climate appear unstable over time, generating isotopic divergences. Former reviews have thoroughly discussed the divergence concept for tree-ring width but not for isotopes. Here we present a synopsis of the isotopic divergence problem and suggest collaborative work for improving climatic reconstructions.
Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 16, 341–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, 2020
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One can use the similarity between sparse indirect observations of past climates and full fields of simulated climates to learn more about past climates. Here, we detail how one can compute uncertainty estimates for such reconstructions of past climates. This highlights the ambiguity of the reconstruction. We further show that such a reconstruction for European summer temperature agrees well with a more common approach.
Ilaria Isola, Giovanni Zanchetta, Russell N. Drysdale, Eleonora Regattieri, Monica Bini, Petra Bajo, John C. Hellstrom, Ilaria Baneschi, Piero Lionello, Jon Woodhead, and Alan Greig
Clim. Past, 15, 135–151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-135-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-135-2019, 2019
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To understand the natural variability in the climate system, the hydrological aspect (dry and wet conditions) is particularly important for its impact on our societies. The reconstruction of past precipitation regimes can provide a useful tool for forecasting future climate changes. We use multi-proxy time series (oxygen and carbon isotopes, trace elements) from a speleothem to investigate circulation pattern variations and seasonality effects during the dry 4.2 ka event in central Italy.
Daniel R. Miller, M. Helen Habicht, Benjamin A. Keisling, Isla S. Castañeda, and Raymond S. Bradley
Clim. Past, 14, 1653–1667, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1653-2018, 2018
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We measured biomarker production over a year in a small inland lake in the northeastern USA. Understanding biomarkers in the modern environment helps us improve reconstructions of past climate from lake sediment records. We use these results to interpret a 900-year decadally resolved temperature record from this lake. Our record highlights multi-decadal oscillations in temperature superimposed on a long-term cooling trend, providing novel insight into climate dynamics of the region.
Bernhard Aichner, Florian Ott, Michał Słowiński, Agnieszka M. Noryśkiewicz, Achim Brauer, and Dirk Sachse
Clim. Past, 14, 1607–1624, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1607-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1607-2018, 2018
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Abundances of plant biomarkers are compared with pollen data in a 3000-year climate archive covering the Late Glacial to Holocene transition in northern Poland. Both parameters synchronously show the rapid onset (12680–12600 yr BP) and termination
(11580–11490 yr BP) of the Younger Dryas cold interval in the study area. This demonstrates the suitability of such proxies to record pronounced changes in vegetation cover without significant delay.
Mauro Guglielmin, Marco Donatelli, Matteo Semplice, and Stefano Serra Capizzano
Clim. Past, 14, 709–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-709-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-709-2018, 2018
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The reconstruction of ground surface temperature for the last 500 years, obtained at the deepest mountain permafrost borehole of the world (Stelvio Pass, 3000 m a.s.l., Italian Alps), is presented here. The main difference with respect to MAAT reconstructions obtained through other proxy data for all of Europe relates to post Little Ice Age (LIA) events. Indeed at this site a stronger cooling of ca 1 °C between 1940 and 1989 and even a more abrupt warming between 1990 and 2011 was detected.
Chenxi Xu, Masaki Sano, Ashok Priyadarshan Dimri, Rengaswamy Ramesh, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Feng Shi, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past, 14, 653–664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-653-2018, 2018
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We have constructed a regional tree ring cellulose oxygen isotope record using a total of five chronologies obtained from the Himalaya. Centennial changes in the regional tree ring record indicate a trend of weakened Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intensity since 1820. Decreasing ISM activity is also observed in various high-resolution ISM records from southwest China and Southeast Asia, and may be the result of reduced land–ocean thermal contrasts since 1820.
Carolyne Pickler, Edmundo Gurza Fausto, Hugo Beltrami, Jean-Claude Mareschal, Francisco Suárez, Arlette Chacon-Oecklers, Nicole Blin, Maria Teresa Cortés Calderón, Alvaro Montenegro, Rob Harris, and Andres Tassara
Clim. Past, 14, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, 2018
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We compiled 31 temperature–depth profiles to reconstruct the ground surface temperature of the last 500 years in northern Chile. They suggest that the region experienced a cooling from 1850 to 1980 followed by a warming of 1.9 K. The cooling could coincide with a cooling interval in 1960. The warming is greater than that of proxy reconstructions for nearby regions and model simulations. These differences could be due to differences in spatial and temporal resolution between data and models.
Gabriella Koltai, Hai Cheng, and Christoph Spötl
Clim. Past, 14, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-369-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-369-2018, 2018
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Here we present a multi-proxy study of flowstones in fractures of crystalline rocks with the aim of assessing the palaeoclimate significance of this new type of speleothem archive. Our results indicate a high degree of spatial heterogeneity, whereby changes in speleothem mineralogy and carbon isotope composition are likely governed by aquifer-internal processes. In contrast, the oxygen isotope composition reflects first-order climate variability.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
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Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Giovanni Leonelli, Anna Coppola, Maria Cristina Salvatore, Carlo Baroni, Giovanna Battipaglia, Tiziana Gentilesca, Francesco Ripullone, Marco Borghetti, Emanuele Conte, Roberto Tognetti, Marco Marchetti, Fabio Lombardi, Michele Brunetti, Maurizio Maugeri, Manuela Pelfini, Paolo Cherubini, Antonello Provenzale, and Valter Maggi
Clim. Past, 13, 1451–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1451-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1451-2017, 2017
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We analyze a tree-ring network from several sites distributed along the Italian Peninsula with the aims of detecting common climate drivers of tree growth and of reconstructing the past climate. We detect the main climatic drivers modulating tree-ring width (RW) and tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) and we reconstruct late summer temperatures since the early 1700s using a MXD chronology: this reconstruction is representative of a wide area around the Italian Peninsula.
Bronwyn C. Dixon, Jonathan J. Tyler, Andrew M. Lorrey, Ian D. Goodwin, Joëlle Gergis, and Russell N. Drysdale
Clim. Past, 13, 1403–1433, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1403-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1403-2017, 2017
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Existing sedimentary palaeoclimate records in Australasia were assessed for suitability for examining the last 2 millennia. A small number of high-quality records were identified, and new Bayesian age models were constructed for each record. Findings suggest that Australasian record chronologies and confidence in proxy–climate relationships are the main factors limiting appropriate data for examining Common Era climate variability. Recommendations for improving data accessibility are provided.
Jennifer R. Marlon, Neil Pederson, Connor Nolan, Simon Goring, Bryan Shuman, Ann Robertson, Robert Booth, Patrick J. Bartlein, Melissa A. Berke, Michael Clifford, Edward Cook, Ann Dieffenbacher-Krall, Michael C. Dietze, Amy Hessl, J. Bradford Hubeny, Stephen T. Jackson, Jeremiah Marsicek, Jason McLachlan, Cary J. Mock, David J. P. Moore, Jonathan Nichols, Dorothy Peteet, Kevin Schaefer, Valerie Trouet, Charles Umbanhowar, John W. Williams, and Zicheng Yu
Clim. Past, 13, 1355–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, 2017
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To improve our understanding of paleoclimate in the northeastern (NE) US, we compiled data from pollen, tree rings, lake levels, testate amoeba from bogs, and other proxies from the last 3000 years. The paleoclimate synthesis supports long-term cooling until the 1800s and reveals an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions around 550–750 CE. Evidence suggests the region is now becoming warmer and wetter, but more calibrated data are needed, especially to capture multidecadal variability.
Rob Wilson, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Rose Oelkers, Greg Wiles, Kevin Anchukaitis, and Nicole Davi
Clim. Past, 13, 1007–1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1007-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1007-2017, 2017
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Blue intensity shows great potential for reconstructing past summer temperatures from conifer trees growing at high latitude or the treeline. However, conifer species that express a strong colour difference between the heartwood and sapwood can impart a long-term trend bias in the resultant reconstructions. Herein, we highlight this issue using eight mountain hemlock sites across the Gulf of Alaska and explore how a non-biased reconstruction of past temperature could be derived using such data.
Nesibe Köse, H. Tuncay Güner, Grant L. Harley, and Joel Guiot
Clim. Past, 13, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1-2017, 2017
Timo A. Räsänen, Ville Lindgren, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Brendan M. Buckley, and Matti Kummu
Clim. Past, 12, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, 2016
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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is linked to severe droughts and floods in mainland Southeast Asia. This research provides a more accurate and uniform picture of the spatio-temporal effects of ENSO on precipitation (1980–2013) and improves our understanding of long-term (1650–2004) ENSO teleconnection and its variability over the study area. The results reveal not only recognisable spatio-temporal patterns but also a high degree of variability and non-stationarity in the effects of ENSO.
Laura K. Buckles, Dirk Verschuren, Johan W. H. Weijers, Christine Cocquyt, Maarten Blaauw, and Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté
Clim. Past, 12, 1243–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1243-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1243-2016, 2016
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This paper discusses the underlying mechanisms of a method that uses specific membrane lipids present in the sediments of an African tropical lake to determine past changes in rainfall. With this method, past dry periods in the last 25 000 years can be assessed.
P. Dobrovolný, M. Rybníček, T. Kolář, R. Brázdil, M. Trnka, and U. Büntgen
Clim. Past, 11, 1453–1466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1453-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1453-2015, 2015
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A new data set of 3194 oak (Quercus spp.) ring width samples collected across the Czech Republic and covering the past 1250 years was analysed. The temporal distribution of negative and positive TRW extremes occurring is regular with no indication of clustering. Negative TRW extremes coincided with above-average March-May and June-August temperature means and below-average precipitation totals. Positive extremes coincided with higher summer precipitation, while temperatures were mostly normal.
M. S. Morales, J. Carilla, H. R. Grau, and R. Villalba
Clim. Past, 11, 1139–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015, 2015
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A 601-year lake area reconstruction in NW Argentina and SW Bolivia, characterized the occurrence of annual to multi-decadal lake area fluctuations and its main oscillation modes of variability. Our reconstruction points out that the late 20th century decrease in lake area was exceptional over the period 1407–2007. A persistent negative trend in lake area is clear in the reconstruction and consistent with glacier retreat and other climate proxies from the Altiplano and the tropical Andes.
S. A. Mauget
Clim. Past, 11, 1107–1125, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1107-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1107-2015, 2015
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A new approach to time series analysis - the ORR method - was used to evaluate reconstructed western US streamflow records during 1500-2007. This method shows an interesting pattern of alternating drought and wet periods during the late 16th and 17th centuries, a period with relatively few drought or wet periods during the 18th century, and the and the reappearance of alternating dry and wet periods during the 19th and early 20th centuries.
J. A. Santos, M. F. Carneiro, A. Correia, M. J. Alcoforado, E. Zorita, and J. J. Gómez-Navarro
Clim. Past, 11, 825–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, 2015
K. Mills, D. B. Ryves, N. J. Anderson, C. L. Bryant, and J. J. Tyler
Clim. Past, 10, 1581–1601, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1581-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1581-2014, 2014
J. A. Björklund, B. E. Gunnarson, K. Seftigen, J. Esper, and H. W. Linderholm
Clim. Past, 10, 877–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-877-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-877-2014, 2014
Q. Cai, Y. Liu, Y. Lei, G. Bao, and B. Sun
Clim. Past, 10, 509–521, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-509-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-509-2014, 2014
P. Breitenmoser, S. Brönnimann, and D. Frank
Clim. Past, 10, 437–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-437-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-437-2014, 2014
M. Ohyama, H. Yonenobu, J.-N. Choi, W.-K. Park, M. Hanzawa, and M. Suzuki
Clim. Past, 9, 261–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-261-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-261-2013, 2013
S. F. M. Breitenbach, K. Rehfeld, B. Goswami, J. U. L. Baldini, H. E. Ridley, D. J. Kennett, K. M. Prufer, V. V. Aquino, Y. Asmerom, V. J. Polyak, H. Cheng, J. Kurths, and N. Marwan
Clim. Past, 8, 1765–1779, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1765-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1765-2012, 2012
S. Szymczak, M. M. Joachimski, A. Bräuning, T. Hetzer, and J. Kuhlemann
Clim. Past, 8, 1737–1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1737-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1737-2012, 2012
Y. F. Cui, Y. J. Wang, H. Cheng, K. Zhao, and X. G. Kong
Clim. Past, 8, 1541–1550, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1541-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1541-2012, 2012
P. W. Leclercq, P. Pitte, R. H. Giesen, M. H. Masiokas, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 8, 1385–1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1385-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1385-2012, 2012
M. Vuille, S. J. Burns, B. L. Taylor, F. W. Cruz, B. W. Bird, M. B. Abbott, L. C. Kanner, H. Cheng, and V. F. Novello
Clim. Past, 8, 1309–1321, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1309-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1309-2012, 2012
J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves
Clim. Past, 8, 1141–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1141-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1141-2012, 2012
I. A. Mundo, M. H. Masiokas, R. Villalba, M. S. Morales, R. Neukom, C. Le Quesne, R. B. Urrutia, and A. Lara
Clim. Past, 8, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-815-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-815-2012, 2012
M. Génova
Clim. Past, 8, 751–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-751-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-751-2012, 2012
M. S. Morales, D. A. Christie, R. Villalba, J. Argollo, J. Pacajes, J. S. Silva, C. A. Alvarez, J. C. Llancabure, and C. C. Soliz Gamboa
Clim. Past, 8, 653–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-653-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-653-2012, 2012
A. Holz, S. Haberle, T. T. Veblen, R. De Pol-Holz, and J. Southon
Clim. Past, 8, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-451-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-451-2012, 2012
F. C. Ljungqvist, P. J. Krusic, G. Brattström, and H. S. Sundqvist
Clim. Past, 8, 227–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-227-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-227-2012, 2012
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Divine, D. V., Godtliebsen, F., and Rue, H.: A modelling approach to assessing the timescale uncertainties in proxy series with chronological errors, Clim. Past Discuss., 8, 31–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-8-31-2012, 2012.
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Short summary
We present a new gridded Arctic summer temperature reconstruction back to the first millennium CE. Our method respects the age uncertainties of the data, which results in a more precise reconstruction.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
We present a new gridded Arctic summer temperature reconstruction back to the first millennium...
