Articles | Volume 10, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1693-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1693-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
10 Sep 2014
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 10 Sep 2014
Numerical studies on the Impact of the Last Glacial Cycle on recent borehole temperature profiles: implications for terrestrial energy balance
H. Beltrami
Climate and Atmospheric Sciences Institute and Department of Earth Sciences, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, Nova Scotia, Canada
Centre pour l'étude et la simulation du climat à l'échelle régionale (ESCER), Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada
G. S. Matharoo
Climate and Atmospheric Sciences Institute and Department of Earth Sciences, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, Nova Scotia, Canada
L. Tarasov
Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada
V. Rath
Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad CC. Físicas, Departamento de Astrofísica y CC de la Atmósfera, Madrid, Spain
Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies, School of Cosmic Physics, Geophysics Section, Dublin, Ireland
J. E. Smerdon
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
Related authors
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Norman Julius Steinert, Elena García-Bustamante, Philip de Vrese, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Stefan Hagemann, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, and Hugo Beltrami
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 547–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
According to climate model estimates, the land stored 2 % of the system's heat excess in the last decades, while observational studies show it was around 6 %. This difference stems from these models using land components that are too shallow to constrain land heat uptake. Deepening the land component does not affect the surface temperature. This result can be used to derive land heat uptake estimates from different sources, which are much closer to previous observational reports.
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Thomas Schmid, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Cristina Vegas-Cañas, Norman Julius Steinert, Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Philipp de Vrese
SOIL, 10, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses air–ground temperature coupling and propagation into the subsurface in a mountainous area in central Spain using surface and subsurface data from six meteorological stations. Heat transfer of temperature changes at the ground surface occurs mainly by conduction controlled by thermal diffusivity of the subsurface, which varies with depth and time. A new methodology shows that near-surface diffusivity and soil moisture content changes with time are closely related.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Stephan Gruber, Almudena García-García, and J. Fidel González-Rouco
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7913–7932, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Inversions of subsurface temperature profiles provide past long-term estimates of ground surface temperature histories and ground heat flux histories at timescales of decades to millennia. Theses estimates complement high-frequency proxy temperature reconstructions and are the basis for studying continental heat storage. We develop and release a new bootstrap method to derive meaningful confidence intervals for the average surface temperature and heat flux histories from any number of profiles.
Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, J. Fidel González-Rouco, and Elena García-Bustamante
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 413–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We study the sensitivity of a regional climate model to resolution and soil scheme changes. Our results show that the use of finer resolutions mainly affects precipitation outputs, particularly in summer due to changes in convective processes. Finer resolutions are associated with larger biases compared with observations. Changing the land surface model scheme affects the simulation of near-surface temperatures, yielding the lowest biases in mean temperature with the most complex soil scheme.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Joel Finnis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 581–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The current radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is increasing the heat stored in the oceans, atmosphere, continental subsurface and cryosphere, with consequences for societies and ecosystems (e.g. sea level rise). We performed the first assessment of the ability of global climate models to represent such heat storage in the climate subsystems. Models are able to reproduce the observed atmosphere heat content, with biases in the simulation of heat content in the rest of components.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, J. Fidel González-Rouco, and Elena García-Bustamante
Clim. Past, 17, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-451-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide new global estimates of changes in surface temperature, surface heat flux, and continental heat storage since preindustrial times from geothermal data. Our analysis includes new measurements and a more comprehensive description of uncertainties than previous studies. Results show higher continental heat storage than previously reported, with global land mean temperature changes of 1 K and subsurface heat gains of 12 ZJ during the last half of the 20th century.
Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Fidel González-Rouco, Elena García-Bustamante, and Joel Finnis
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5345–5366, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5345-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5345-2020, 2020
Ignacio Hermoso de Mendoza, Hugo Beltrami, Andrew H. MacDougall, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1663–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1663-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We study the impact that the thickness of the subsurface and the geothermal gradient have in land models for climate simulations. To do this, we modify the Community Land Model version 4.5. In a scenario of rising atmospheric temperatures, the temperature of an insufficiently deep subsurface rises faster than it would in the real land. For the model, this produces faster permafrost thawing and increased emissions of land carbon to the atmosphere.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, Eduardo Zorita, and Fernando Jaume-Santero
Clim. Past, 15, 1099–1111, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A database of North American long-term ground surface temperatures, from approximately 1300 CE to 1700 CE, was assembled from geothermal data. These temperatures are useful for studying the future stability of permafrost, as well as for evaluating simulations of preindustrial climate that may help to improve estimates of climate models’ equilibrium climate sensitivity. The database will be made available to the climate science community.
Carolyne Pickler, Edmundo Gurza Fausto, Hugo Beltrami, Jean-Claude Mareschal, Francisco Suárez, Arlette Chacon-Oecklers, Nicole Blin, Maria Teresa Cortés Calderón, Alvaro Montenegro, Rob Harris, and Andres Tassara
Clim. Past, 14, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We compiled 31 temperature–depth profiles to reconstruct the ground surface temperature of the last 500 years in northern Chile. They suggest that the region experienced a cooling from 1850 to 1980 followed by a warming of 1.9 K. The cooling could coincide with a cooling interval in 1960. The warming is greater than that of proxy reconstructions for nearby regions and model simulations. These differences could be due to differences in spatial and temporal resolution between data and models.
Carolyne Pickler, Hugo Beltrami, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 2215–2227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2215-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2215-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The ground surface temperature histories of the past 500 years were reconstructed at 10 sites in northern Ontario and Quebec. The regions experienced a warming of ~1–2 K for the past 150 years, agreeing with borehole reconstructions for southern Ontario and Quebec and proxy data. Permafrost maps locate the sites in a region of discontinuous permafrost but our reconstructions suggest that the potential for permafrost was minimal to absent over the past 500 years.
Fernando Jaume-Santero, Carolyne Pickler, Hugo Beltrami, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 2181–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Within the framework of the PAGES NAm2k project, we estimated regional trends in the ground surface temperature change for the past 500 years in North America. The mean North American ground surface temperature history suggests a warming of 1.8 °C between preindustrial times and 2000. A regional analysis of mean temperature changes over the last 5 centuries shows that all regions experienced warming, but this warming displays large spatial variability and is more marked in high-latitude regions.
Ignacio Hermoso de Mendoza, Jean-Claude Mareschal, and Hugo Beltrami
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-116, 2016
Preprint retracted
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated ice flow and heat conduction at the Dome C site in Antarctica with a 1D numerical model, using as inputs past conditions at the site over the past 800Ky. Several model parameters (basal heat flux, flux function parameter, ice surface velocity and air-ice temperature offset) are set as free parameters whose values yield different temperature profiles that we can compare to that at Dome C. Using this criteria, we estimate these free parameters through Montecarlo methods.
C. Pickler, H. Beltrami, and J.-C. Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 115–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-115-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-115-2016, 2016
P. Ortega, M. Montoya, F. González-Rouco, H. Beltrami, and D. Swingedouw
Clim. Past, 9, 547–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-547-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-547-2013, 2013
Kevin Hank and Lev Tarasov
Clim. Past, 20, 2499–2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2499-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2499-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ice-rafted debris signature of Heinrich events in marine sedimentary cores is usually attributed to massive ice discharge from the Laurentide Ice Sheet. However, the driving mechanism of this pulsed discharge remains unclear. We compare three previously proposed hypotheses and examine the role of relevant system processes. We find ice stream surge cycling is the most likely mechanism, but its character is sensitive to both the geothermal heat flux and the form of the basal drag law.
Benoit S. Lecavalier and Lev Tarasov
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1291, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1291, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) over the last 200 ka by means of a history-matching analysis where an updated observational database constrained ~10,000 model simulations. During peak glaciation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the best-fitting sub-ensemble of AIS simulations reached an excess grounded ice volume relative to present of 9.2 to 26.5 meters equivalent sea-level relative to present. The LGM AIS volume can help resolve the LGM missing ice problem.
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Norman Julius Steinert, Elena García-Bustamante, Philip de Vrese, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Stefan Hagemann, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, and Hugo Beltrami
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 547–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
According to climate model estimates, the land stored 2 % of the system's heat excess in the last decades, while observational studies show it was around 6 %. This difference stems from these models using land components that are too shallow to constrain land heat uptake. Deepening the land component does not affect the surface temperature. This result can be used to derive land heat uptake estimates from different sources, which are much closer to previous observational reports.
Matthew Drew and Lev Tarasov
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-620, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-620, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We model the sediment-ice-climate system over North America for the last 2.58 Myr showing that ice sheets are capable of excavating features the size of the Hudson bay. This work provides a basis for reconstructing past landscapes important to climate modelling efforts, helping us to understand past earth system change.
Brian R. Crow, Lev Tarasov, Michael Schulz, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 20, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An abnormally warm period around 400,000 years ago is thought to have resulted in a large melt event for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using a sequence of climate model simulations connected to an ice model, we estimate a 50 % melt of Greenland compared to today. Importantly, we explore how the exact methodology of connecting the temperatures and precipitation from the climate model to the ice sheet model can influence these results and show that common methods could introduce errors.
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Thomas Schmid, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Cristina Vegas-Cañas, Norman Julius Steinert, Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Philipp de Vrese
SOIL, 10, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses air–ground temperature coupling and propagation into the subsurface in a mountainous area in central Spain using surface and subsurface data from six meteorological stations. Heat transfer of temperature changes at the ground surface occurs mainly by conduction controlled by thermal diffusivity of the subsurface, which varies with depth and time. A new methodology shows that near-surface diffusivity and soil moisture content changes with time are closely related.
Matthew Drew and Lev Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 17, 5391–5415, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The interaction of fast-flowing regions of continental ice sheets with their beds governs how quickly they slide and therefore flow. The coupling of fast ice to its bed is controlled by the pressure of meltwater at its base. It is currently poorly understood how the physical details of these hydrologic systems affect ice speedup. Using numerical models we find, surprisingly, that they largely do not, except for the duration of the surge. This suggests that cheap models are sufficient.
Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Jason E. Smerdon, and Félix García-Pereira
Clim. Past, 19, 2361–2387, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Analyses of reconstructed data suggest that the precipitation and availability of water have evolved in a similar way during the Last Millennium in different regions of the world, including areas of North America, Europe, the Middle East, southern Asia, northern South America, East Africa and the Indo-Pacific. To confirm this link between distant regions and to understand the reasons behind it, the information from different reconstructed and simulated products has been compiled and analyzed.
Ryan Love, Glenn A. Milne, Parviz Ajourlou, Soran Parang, Lev Tarasov, and Konstantin Latychev
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2491, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A relatively recent advance in glacial isostatic adjustment modelling has been the development of models that include 3D Earth structure, as opposed to 1D structure. However, a major limitation is the computational expense. We have developed a method using artificial neural networks to emulate the influence of 3D Earth models to affordably constrain the viscosity parameter space. Our results indicate that the misfits are of a scale such that useful predictions of relative sea level can be made.
Ryan Love, Lev Tarasov, Heather Andres, Alan Condron, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater injection into bands across the North Atlantic are a mainstay of climate modelling when investigating topics such as climate change or the role of glacial runoff in the glacial climate system. However, this approach is unrealistic and results in a systematic bias in the climate response to a given flux of freshwater. We evaluate the magnitude of this bias by comparison to two other approaches for introducing freshwater into a coupled climate model setup for glacial conditions.
Kevin Hank, Lev Tarasov, and Elisa Mantelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5627–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Physically meaningful modeling of geophysical system instabilities is numerically challenging, given the potential effects of purely numerical artifacts. Here we explore the sensitivity of ice stream surge activation to numerical and physical model aspects. We find that surge characteristics exhibit a resolution dependency but converge at higher horizontal grid resolutions and are significantly affected by the incorporation of bed thermal and sub-glacial hydrology models.
Benoit S. Lecavalier, Lev Tarasov, Greg Balco, Perry Spector, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Christo Buizert, Catherine Ritz, Marion Leduc-Leballeur, Robert Mulvaney, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Michael J. Bentley, and Jonathan Bamber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3573–3596, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3573-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3573-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution constraint database version 2 (AntICE2) consists of a large variety of observations that constrain the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last glacial cycle. This includes observations of past ice sheet extent, past ice thickness, past relative sea level, borehole temperature profiles, and present-day bedrock displacement rates. The database is intended to improve our understanding of past Antarctic changes and for ice sheet model calibrations.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Lev Tarasov and Michael Goldstein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1410, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This overview: 1. Illustrates how current climate and/or ice sheet model-based inferences about the past tend to have little interpretable value about the real world given inadequate accounting of uncertainties. 2. Explains Bayesian inference to a non-statistical community. 3. Sketches out some tractable inferential steps for computationally expensive models in a way that meaningfully accounts for uncertainties. 4. Lays out some steps for the community to move forward.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Stephan Gruber, Almudena García-García, and J. Fidel González-Rouco
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7913–7932, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Inversions of subsurface temperature profiles provide past long-term estimates of ground surface temperature histories and ground heat flux histories at timescales of decades to millennia. Theses estimates complement high-frequency proxy temperature reconstructions and are the basis for studying continental heat storage. We develop and release a new bootstrap method to derive meaningful confidence intervals for the average surface temperature and heat flux histories from any number of profiles.
Rebecca Orrison, Mathias Vuille, Jason E. Smerdon, James Apaéstegui, Vitor Azevedo, Jose Leandro P. S. Campos, Francisco W. Cruz, Marcela Eduarda Della Libera, and Nicolás M. Stríkis
Clim. Past, 18, 2045–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2045-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2045-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the South American Summer Monsoon over the last millennium and dynamically interpreted the principal modes of variability. We find the spatial patterns of the monsoon are an intrinsic feature of the climate modulated by external forcings. Multi-centennial mean state departures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age show regionally coherent patterns of hydroclimatic change in both a multi-archive network of oxygen isotope records and isotope-enabled climate models.
Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, J. Fidel González-Rouco, and Elena García-Bustamante
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 413–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We study the sensitivity of a regional climate model to resolution and soil scheme changes. Our results show that the use of finer resolutions mainly affects precipitation outputs, particularly in summer due to changes in convective processes. Finer resolutions are associated with larger biases compared with observations. Changing the land surface model scheme affects the simulation of near-surface temperatures, yielding the lowest biases in mean temperature with the most complex soil scheme.
Sooin Yun, Jason E. Smerdon, Bo Li, and Xianyang Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 2583–2605, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2583-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2583-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate field reconstructions (CFRs) estimate spatiotemporal climate conditions hundreds to thousands of years into the past. Assessing CFR skills is critical for improving their interpretation and ultimately for deriving better CFR estimates. We apply new methods for assessing spatiotemporal skill using formalized null hypotheses to derive a detailed assessment of why CFR skill varies across multiple methods, with implications for improving future CFR estimates.
Lev Tarasov and Michael Goldstein
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-145, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This review: 1. Illustrates how current climate and/or ice sheet model-based inferences about the past tend to have limited interpretable value about the real world given inadequate accounting of uncertainties. 2. Explains Bayesian inference to a non-statistical community. 3. Sketches out tractable Bayesian inference for computationally expensive models in a way that meaningfully accounts for uncertainties. 4. Lays out some steps for the community to move forward.
Ryan Love, Heather J. Andres, Alan Condron, and Lev Tarasov
Clim. Past, 17, 2327–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2327-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2327-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater, in the form of glacial runoff, is hypothesized to play a critical role in centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability and climate transitions. We track the routing of glaciologically constrained freshwater volumes in glacial ocean simulations. Our simulations capture important generally not well-represented small-scale features (boundary currents, eddies). We show that the dilution of freshwater as it is transported to key climate regions reduces the freshening to 20 %–60 %.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Joel Finnis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 581–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The current radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is increasing the heat stored in the oceans, atmosphere, continental subsurface and cryosphere, with consequences for societies and ecosystems (e.g. sea level rise). We performed the first assessment of the ability of global climate models to represent such heat storage in the climate subsystems. Models are able to reproduce the observed atmosphere heat content, with biases in the simulation of heat content in the rest of components.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, J. Fidel González-Rouco, and Elena García-Bustamante
Clim. Past, 17, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-451-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide new global estimates of changes in surface temperature, surface heat flux, and continental heat storage since preindustrial times from geothermal data. Our analysis includes new measurements and a more comprehensive description of uncertainties than previous studies. Results show higher continental heat storage than previously reported, with global land mean temperature changes of 1 K and subsurface heat gains of 12 ZJ during the last half of the 20th century.
Taimaz Bahadory, Lev Tarasov, and Heather Andres
Clim. Past, 17, 397–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-397-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-397-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an ensemble of last glacial inception simulations using a fully coupled ice–climate model for the Northern Hemisphere. The ensemble largely captures inferred ice volume changes within proxy uncertainties. Notable features include an ice bridge across Davis Strait and between Greenland and Iceland. Via an equilibrium climate response experiment, we also demonstrate the potential value of fully coupled ice–climate modelling of last glacial inception to constrain future climate change.
Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Fidel González-Rouco, Elena García-Bustamante, and Joel Finnis
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5345–5366, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5345-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5345-2020, 2020
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, and Jason E. Smerdon
Clim. Past, 16, 1285–1307, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1285-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1285-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work analyses the behavior of atmospheric dynamics and hydroclimate in climate simulations of the last millennium. In particular, how external forcing factors, like solar and volcanic activity and greenhouse gas emissions, impact variables like temperature, pressure, wind, precipitation, and soil moisture is assessed. The results of these analyses show that changes in the forcing could alter the zonal circulation and the intensity and distribution of monsoons and convergence zones.
Ignacio Hermoso de Mendoza, Hugo Beltrami, Andrew H. MacDougall, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1663–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1663-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We study the impact that the thickness of the subsurface and the geothermal gradient have in land models for climate simulations. To do this, we modify the Community Land Model version 4.5. In a scenario of rising atmospheric temperatures, the temperature of an insufficiently deep subsurface rises faster than it would in the real land. For the model, this produces faster permafrost thawing and increased emissions of land carbon to the atmosphere.
Heather J. Andres and Lev Tarasov
Clim. Past, 15, 1621–1646, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1621-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1621-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Abrupt climate shifts of large magnitudes were common during glacial states, with explanations centred on the oceans. However, winds drive ocean surface currents so shifts in mean wind conditions could also have played a critical role. In a small ensemble of transient deglacial simulations, we find abrupt shifts in both jet stream location and variability over the North Atlantic. We show that the eastern North American ice sheet margin strongly constrains regional jet characteristics.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell N. Drysdale, Philip L. Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3649–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). This design includes time-varying changes in orbital forcing, greenhouse gas concentrations, continental ice sheets as well as freshwater input from the disintegration of continental ice sheets. Key paleo-records for model-data comparison are also included.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, Eduardo Zorita, and Fernando Jaume-Santero
Clim. Past, 15, 1099–1111, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A database of North American long-term ground surface temperatures, from approximately 1300 CE to 1700 CE, was assembled from geothermal data. These temperatures are useful for studying the future stability of permafrost, as well as for evaluating simulations of preindustrial climate that may help to improve estimates of climate models’ equilibrium climate sensitivity. The database will be made available to the climate science community.
Taimaz Bahadory and Lev Tarasov
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3883–3902, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3883-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3883-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a new coupling between the Glacial Systems Model and the
LOVECLIM intermediate complexity climate model. The coupling is
distinguished from that of previous studies by greater completeness
and accuracy, with the intent of capturing the major feedbacks between
ice sheets and climate on glacial cycle timescales. The fully coupled
model will be used to examine the ice/climate phase space of past
glacial cycles.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell Drysdale, Philip Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The penultimate deglaciation (~ 138–128 ka), which represents the transition into the Last Interglacial period, provides a framework to investigate the climate and environmental response to large changes in boundary conditions. Here, as part of the PAGES-PMIP working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation as well as a selection of paleo records for upcoming model-data comparisons.
Mark Kavanagh and Lev Tarasov
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3497–3513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3497-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present and validate BrAHMs (BAsal Hydrology Model): a new
physically based basal hydrology model, which captures the two main
types of subglacial drainage systems (high-pressure distributed systems and
low-pressure channelized systems). BrAHMs is designed for continental
glacial cycle scale contexts, for which computational speed is
essential. This speed is accomplished, in part, by numerical methods
novel to basal hydrology contexts.
Carolyne Pickler, Edmundo Gurza Fausto, Hugo Beltrami, Jean-Claude Mareschal, Francisco Suárez, Arlette Chacon-Oecklers, Nicole Blin, Maria Teresa Cortés Calderón, Alvaro Montenegro, Rob Harris, and Andres Tassara
Clim. Past, 14, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We compiled 31 temperature–depth profiles to reconstruct the ground surface temperature of the last 500 years in northern Chile. They suggest that the region experienced a cooling from 1850 to 1980 followed by a warming of 1.9 K. The cooling could coincide with a cooling interval in 1960. The warming is greater than that of proxy reconstructions for nearby regions and model simulations. These differences could be due to differences in spatial and temporal resolution between data and models.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
Mohammad Hizbul Bahar Arif, Lev Tarasov, and Tristan Hauser
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-276, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
This study is a first step answer to the following question: Can you
use emulators (machine learning techniques) to make the output of fast
simple climate models (a 2-D energy balance model in this test case)
indistinguishable from that of a much more computationally expensive
General Circulation climate model (GCM) within the uncertainties of
GCMs? Our preliminary test of this concept for large spatio-temporal
contexts gives a positive answer.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Nathan J. Steiger and Jason E. Smerdon
Clim. Past, 13, 1435–1449, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1435-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1435-2017, 2017
Carolyne Pickler, Hugo Beltrami, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 2215–2227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2215-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2215-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The ground surface temperature histories of the past 500 years were reconstructed at 10 sites in northern Ontario and Quebec. The regions experienced a warming of ~1–2 K for the past 150 years, agreeing with borehole reconstructions for southern Ontario and Quebec and proxy data. Permafrost maps locate the sites in a region of discontinuous permafrost but our reconstructions suggest that the potential for permafrost was minimal to absent over the past 500 years.
Fernando Jaume-Santero, Carolyne Pickler, Hugo Beltrami, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 2181–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Within the framework of the PAGES NAm2k project, we estimated regional trends in the ground surface temperature change for the past 500 years in North America. The mean North American ground surface temperature history suggests a warming of 1.8 °C between preindustrial times and 2000. A regional analysis of mean temperature changes over the last 5 centuries shows that all regions experienced warming, but this warming displays large spatial variability and is more marked in high-latitude regions.
Ignacio Hermoso de Mendoza, Jean-Claude Mareschal, and Hugo Beltrami
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-116, 2016
Preprint retracted
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated ice flow and heat conduction at the Dome C site in Antarctica with a 1D numerical model, using as inputs past conditions at the site over the past 800Ky. Several model parameters (basal heat flux, flux function parameter, ice surface velocity and air-ice temperature offset) are set as free parameters whose values yield different temperature profiles that we can compare to that at Dome C. Using this criteria, we estimate these free parameters through Montecarlo methods.
Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, Masa Kageyama, Didier M. Roche, Paul J. Valdes, Andrea Burke, Rosemarie Drummond, W. Richard Peltier, and Lev Tarasov
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2563-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2563-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript presents the experiment design for the PMIP4 Last Deglaciation Core experiment: a transient simulation of the last deglaciation, 21–9 ka. Specified model boundary conditions include time-varying orbital parameters, greenhouse gases, ice sheets, ice meltwater fluxes and other geographical changes (provided for 26–0 ka). The context of the experiment and the choices for the boundary conditions are explained, along with the future direction of the working group.
André Düsterhus, Alessio Rovere, Anders E. Carlson, Benjamin P. Horton, Volker Klemann, Lev Tarasov, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Tom Bradwell, Jorie Clark, Andrea Dutton, W. Roland Gehrels, Fiona D. Hibbert, Marc P. Hijma, Nicole Khan, Robert E. Kopp, Dorit Sivan, and Torbjörn E. Törnqvist
Clim. Past, 12, 911–921, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-911-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-911-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This review/position paper addresses problems in creating new interdisciplinary databases for palaeo-climatological sea-level and ice-sheet data and gives an overview on new advances to tackle them. The focus therein is to define and explain strategies and highlight their importance to allow further progress in these fields. It also offers important insights into the general problem of designing competitive databases which are also applicable to other communities within the palaeo-environment.
C. Pickler, H. Beltrami, and J.-C. Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 115–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-115-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-115-2016, 2016
A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, M. Kageyama, P. Braconnot, S. P. Harrison, K. Lambeck, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, W. R. Peltier, L. Tarasov, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, and K. Takahashi
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3621–3637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the creation of boundary conditions related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and altitude of ice-free land, at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), for use in LGM experiments conducted as part of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The difference in the ice sheet boundary conditions as well as the climate response to them are discussed.
K. Le Morzadec, L. Tarasov, M. Morlighem, and H. Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3199–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3199-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3199-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A long-term challenge for any model of complex large-scale processes
is accounting for the impact of unresolved sub-grid (SG) processes.
We quantify the impact of SG mass-balance and ice fluxes on glacial
cycle ensemble results for North America. We find no easy solutions to
accurately capture these impacts. We show that SG process
representation and associated parametric uncertainties can have
significant impact on coarse resolution model results for glacial
cycle ice sheet evolution.
J. Wang, J. Emile-Geay, D. Guillot, J. E. Smerdon, and B. Rajaratnam
Clim. Past, 10, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1-2014, 2014
R. Briggs, D. Pollard, and L. Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 7, 1949–1970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1949-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1949-2013, 2013
P. Ortega, M. Montoya, F. González-Rouco, H. Beltrami, and D. Swingedouw
Clim. Past, 9, 547–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-547-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-547-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Continental Surface Processes | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Holocene
Holocene environmental and climate evolution of central west Patagonia as reconstructed from lacustrine sediments of Meseta Chile Chico (46.5° S, Chile)
Moss kill dates and modeled summer temperature track episodic snowline lowering and ice cap expansion in Arctic Canada through the Common Era
Missing sea level rise in southeastern Greenland during and since the Little Ice Age
Reconstructing burnt area during the Holocene: an Iberian case study
Expression of the “4.2 ka event” in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA
Arctic glaciers and ice caps through the Holocene:a circumpolar synthesis of lake-based reconstructions
Stalagmite carbon isotopes suggest deglacial increase in soil respiration in western Europe driven by temperature change
Climate-driven desertification and its implications for the ancient Silk Road trade
Diatom-oxygen isotope record from high-altitude Lake Petit (2200 m a.s.l.) in the Mediterranean Alps: shedding light on a climatic pulse at 4.2 ka
Episodic Neoglacial expansion and rapid 20th century retreat of a small ice cap on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada, and modeled temperature change
Climate trends in northern Ontario and Québec from borehole temperature profiles
Interactions between climate change and human activities during the early to mid-Holocene in the eastern Mediterranean basins
Laurentide Ice Sheet basal temperatures during the last glacial cycle as inferred from borehole data
Evidence of a prolonged drought ca. 4200 yr BP correlated with prehistoric settlement abandonment from the Gueldaman GLD1 Cave, Northern Algeria
Glacier response to North Atlantic climate variability during the Holocene
Climatic variability and human impact during the last 2000 years in western Mesoamerica: evidence of late Classic (AD 600–900) and Little Ice Age drought events
Twelve thousand years of dust: the Holocene global dust cycle constrained by natural archives
Holocene climate change, permafrost and cryogenic carbonate formation: insights from a recently deglaciated, high-elevation cave in the Austrian Alps
Late Glacial–Holocene climatic transition record at the Argentinian Andean piedmont between 33 and 34° S
Holocene changes in African vegetation: tradeoff between climate and water availability
Orbital changes, variation in solar activity and increased anthropogenic activities: controls on the Holocene flood frequency in the Lake Ledro area, Northern Italy
Mass-movement and flood-induced deposits in Lake Ledro, southern Alps, Italy: implications for Holocene palaeohydrology and natural hazards
A Late Glacial to Holocene record of environmental change from Lake Dojran (Macedonia, Greece)
Bunker Cave stalagmites: an archive for central European Holocene climate variability
Temperature variability at Dürres Maar, Germany during the Migration Period and at High Medieval Times, inferred from stable carbon isotopes of Sphagnum cellulose
Carolina Franco, Antonio Maldonado, Christian Ohlendorf, A. Catalina Gebhardt, María Eugenia de Porras, Amalia Nuevo-Delaunay, César Méndez, and Bernd Zolitschka
Clim. Past, 20, 817–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a continuous record of lake sediments spanning the Holocene from central west Patagonia. By examining various indicators like elemental composition and grain size data, we found that, around ~5500 years ago, the way sediments settled in the lake changed. On a regional scale, our results suggest that rainfall, influenced by changes in the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds, played a key role in shaping the environment of the region for the past ~10 000 years.
Gifford H. Miller, Simon L. Pendleton, Alexandra Jahn, Yafang Zhong, John T. Andrews, Scott J. Lehman, Jason P. Briner, Jonathan H. Raberg, Helga Bueltmann, Martha Raynolds, Áslaug Geirsdóttir, and John R. Southon
Clim. Past, 19, 2341–2360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2341-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2341-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Receding Arctic ice caps reveal moss killed by earlier ice expansions; 186 moss kill dates from 71 ice caps cluster at 250–450, 850–1000 and 1240–1500 CE and continued expanding 1500–1880 CE, as recorded by regions of sparse vegetation cover, when ice caps covered > 11 000 km2 but < 100 km2 at present. The 1880 CE state approached conditions expected during the start of an ice age; climate models suggest this was only reversed by anthropogenic alterations to the planetary energy balance.
Sarah A. Woodroffe, Leanne M. Wake, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Antony J. Long, and Kurt H. Kjær
Clim. Past, 19, 1585–1606, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Salt marsh in SE Greenland records sea level changes over the past 300 years in sediments and microfossils. The pattern is rising sea level until ~ 1880 CE and sea level fall since. This disagrees with modelled sea level, which overpredicts sea level fall by at least 0.5 m. This is the same even when reducing the overall amount of Greenland ice sheet melt and allowing for more time. Fitting the model to the data leaves ~ 3 mm yr−1 of unexplained sea level rise in SE Greenland since ~ 1880 CE.
Yicheng Shen, Luke Sweeney, Mengmeng Liu, Jose Antonio Lopez Saez, Sebastián Pérez-Díaz, Reyes Luelmo-Lautenschlaeger, Graciela Gil-Romera, Dana Hoefer, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Heike Schneider, I. Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 18, 1189–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1189-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1189-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a method to reconstruct burnt area using a relationship between pollen and charcoal abundances and the calibration of charcoal abundance using modern observations of burnt area. We use this method to reconstruct changes in burnt area over the past 12 000 years from sites in Iberia. We show that regional changes in burnt area reflect known changes in climate, with a high burnt area during warming intervals and low burnt area when the climate was cooler and/or wetter than today.
David T. Liefert and Bryan N. Shuman
Clim. Past, 18, 1109–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1109-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A large drought potentially occurred roughly 4200 years ago, but its impacts and significance are unclear. We find new evidence in carbonate oxygen isotopes from a mountain lake in southeastern Wyoming, southern Rocky Mountains, of an abrupt reduction in effective moisture (precipitation–evaporation) or snowpack from approximately 4200–4000 years ago. The drought's prominence among a growing number of sites in the North American interior suggests it was a regionally substantial climate event.
Laura J. Larocca and Yarrow Axford
Clim. Past, 18, 579–606, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-579-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper synthesizes 66 records of glacier variations over the Holocene from lake archives across seven Arctic regions. We find that summers only moderately warmer than today drove major environmental change across the Arctic in the early Holocene, including the widespread loss of glaciers. In comparison, future projections of Arctic temperature change far exceed estimated early Holocene values in most locations, portending the eventual loss of most of the Arctic's small glaciers.
Franziska A. Lechleitner, Christopher C. Day, Oliver Kost, Micah Wilhelm, Negar Haghipour, Gideon M. Henderson, and Heather M. Stoll
Clim. Past, 17, 1903–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1903-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1903-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Soil respiration is a critical but poorly constrained component of the global carbon cycle. We analyse the effect of changing soil respiration rates on the stable carbon isotope ratio of speleothems from northern Spain covering the last deglaciation. Using geochemical analysis and forward modelling we quantify the processes affecting speleothem stable carbon isotope ratios and extract a signature of increasing soil respiration synchronous with deglacial warming.
Guanghui Dong, Leibin Wang, David Dian Zhang, Fengwen Liu, Yifu Cui, Guoqiang Li, Zhilin Shi, and Fahu Chen
Clim. Past, 17, 1395–1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1395-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1395-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A compilation of the results of absolute dating and high-resolution paleoclimatic records from the Xishawo site in the Dunhuang area and historical archives reveals that two desertification events occurred at ~ 800–600 BCE and ~ 1450 CE. The later desertification event was consistent with the immediate fall in tribute trade that occurred in ~ 1450 CE, which indicates that climate change played a potentially important role in explaining the decline of the Ancient Silk Road trade.
Rosine Cartier, Florence Sylvestre, Christine Paillès, Corinne Sonzogni, Martine Couapel, Anne Alexandre, Jean-Charles Mazur, Elodie Brisset, Cécile Miramont, and Frédéric Guiter
Clim. Past, 15, 253–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-253-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-253-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A major environmental change, 4200 years ago, was recorded in the lacustrine sediments of Lake Petit (Mediterranean Alps). The regime shift was described by a modification in erosion processes in the watershed and aquatic species in the lake. This study, based on the analysis of the lake water balance by using oxygen isotopes in diatoms, revealed that these environmental responses were due to a rapid change in precipitation regime, lasting ca. 500 years.
Simon L. Pendleton, Gifford H. Miller, Robert A. Anderson, Sarah E. Crump, Yafang Zhong, Alexandra Jahn, and Áslaug Geirsdottir
Clim. Past, 13, 1527–1537, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1527-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1527-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Recent warming in the high latitudes has prompted the accelerated retreat of ice caps and glaciers, especially in the Canadian Arctic. Here we use the radiocarbon age of preserved plants being exposed by shrinking ice caps that once entombed them. These ages help us to constrain the timing and magnitude of climate change on southern Baffin Island over the past ~ 2000 years. Our results show episodic cooling up until ~ 1900 CE, followed by accelerated warming through present.
Carolyne Pickler, Hugo Beltrami, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 2215–2227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2215-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2215-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The ground surface temperature histories of the past 500 years were reconstructed at 10 sites in northern Ontario and Quebec. The regions experienced a warming of ~1–2 K for the past 150 years, agreeing with borehole reconstructions for southern Ontario and Quebec and proxy data. Permafrost maps locate the sites in a region of discontinuous permafrost but our reconstructions suggest that the potential for permafrost was minimal to absent over the past 500 years.
Jean-Francois Berger, Laurent Lespez, Catherine Kuzucuoğlu, Arthur Glais, Fuad Hourani, Adrien Barra, and Jean Guilaine
Clim. Past, 12, 1847–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1847-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1847-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on early Holocene rapid climate changes in the Mediterranean zone, which are under-represented in continental archives, and on their impact on prehistoric societies from the eastern to central Mediterranean (central Anatolia, Cyprus, NE and NW Greece). Our study demonstrates the reality of hydrogeomorphological responses to early Holocene RCCs in valleys and alluvial fans and lake–marsh systems. We finally question their socio-economic and geographical adaptation capacities.
C. Pickler, H. Beltrami, and J.-C. Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 115–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-115-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-115-2016, 2016
J. Ruan, F. Kherbouche, D. Genty, D. Blamart, H. Cheng, F. Dewilde, S. Hachi, R. L. Edwards, E. Régnier, and J.-L. Michelot
Clim. Past, 12, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1-2016, 2016
N. L. Balascio, W. J. D'Andrea, and R. S. Bradley
Clim. Past, 11, 1587–1598, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1587-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1587-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Sediment cores were collected from a lake that captures runoff from two glaciers in Greenland. Our analysis of the sediments shows that these glaciers were active over the last 9,000 years and advanced and retreated in response to regional climate changes. The data also provide a long-term perspective on the rate of 20th century glacier retreat and indicate that recent anthropogenic-driven warming has already impacted the regional cryosphere in a manner outside the range of natural variability.
A. Rodríguez-Ramírez, M. Caballero, P. Roy, B. Ortega, G. Vázquez-Castro, and S. Lozano-García
Clim. Past, 11, 1239–1248, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1239-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1239-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present results from western Mexico, where very few palaeoclimatic research sites exist. The record has good chronological resolution (ca. 20 years) and clear climatic trends during the last 2ka. The most important signals are: dry conditions during the late Classic (AD 500 to 1000), especially from AD 600 to 800, and low lake levels during the LIA, in two phases that follow Spörer and Maunder solar minima. Drier conditions are related with a lower intensity of the North American monsoon.
S. Albani, N. M. Mahowald, G. Winckler, R. F. Anderson, L. I. Bradtmiller, B. Delmonte, R. François, M. Goman, N. G. Heavens, P. P. Hesse, S. A. Hovan, S. G. Kang, K. E. Kohfeld, H. Lu, V. Maggi, J. A. Mason, P. A. Mayewski, D. McGee, X. Miao, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. T. Perry, A. Pourmand, H. M. Roberts, N. Rosenbloom, T. Stevens, and J. Sun
Clim. Past, 11, 869–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-869-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-869-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an innovative framework to organize paleodust records, formalized in a publicly accessible database, and discuss the emerging properties of the global dust cycle during the Holocene by integrating our analysis with simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model. We show how the size distribution of dust is intrinsically related to the dust mass accumulation rates and that only considering a consistent size range allows for a consistent analysis of the global dust cycle.
C. Spötl and H. Cheng
Clim. Past, 10, 1349–1362, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1349-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1349-2014, 2014
A. E. Mehl and M. A. Zárate
Clim. Past, 10, 863–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-863-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-863-2014, 2014
C. Hély, A.-M. Lézine, and APD contributors
Clim. Past, 10, 681–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-681-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-681-2014, 2014
B. Vannière, M. Magny, S. Joannin, A. Simonneau, S. B. Wirth, Y. Hamann, E. Chapron, A. Gilli, M. Desmet, and F. S. Anselmetti
Clim. Past, 9, 1193–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1193-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1193-2013, 2013
A. Simonneau, E. Chapron, B. Vannière, S. B. Wirth, A. Gilli, C. Di Giovanni, F. S. Anselmetti, M. Desmet, and M. Magny
Clim. Past, 9, 825–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-825-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-825-2013, 2013
A. Francke, B. Wagner, M. J. Leng, and J. Rethemeyer
Clim. Past, 9, 481–498, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-481-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-481-2013, 2013
J. Fohlmeister, A. Schröder-Ritzrau, D. Scholz, C. Spötl, D. F. C. Riechelmann, M. Mudelsee, A. Wackerbarth, A. Gerdes, S. Riechelmann, A. Immenhauser, D. K. Richter, and A. Mangini
Clim. Past, 8, 1751–1764, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1751-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1751-2012, 2012
R. Moschen, N. Kühl, S. Peters, H. Vos, and A. Lücke
Clim. Past, 7, 1011–1026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1011-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1011-2011, 2011
Cited articles
Aster, R., Borchers, B., and Thurber, C.: Parameter estimation and inverse problems, Academic Press, San Diego, 2nd Edn., 2013.
Bartlett, M. G., Chapman, D. S., and Harris, R. N.: Snow and the ground temperature record of climate change, J. Geophys. Res., 109, F04008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JF000224, 2004.
Bartlett, M. G., Chapman, D. S., and Harris, R. N.: Snow effect on North American ground temperatures, 1950–2002, J. Geophys. Res., 110, F03008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JF000293, 2005.
Beardsmore, G. R. and Cull, J. P.: Crustal Heat Flow, University Press, Cambridge, 2001.
Bekele, A., Kellman, L., and Beltrami, H.: Soil Profile CO2 concentrations in forested and clear cut sites in Nova Scotia, Canada, For. Ecol. Manage., 242, 587–597, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2007.01.088, 2007.
Beltrami, H.: Active layer distortion of annual air/soil thermal orbits, Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 7, 101–110, 1996.
Beltrami, H.: Climate from borehole data: Energy fluxes and temperatures since 1500, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 26-1–26-4, 2002a.
Beltrami, H.: Earth's long term memory, Science, 297, 206–207, 2002b.
Beltrami, H. and Bourlon, E.: Ground warming patterns in the Northern Hemisphere during the last five centuries, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 227, 169–177, 2004.
Beltrami, H. and Kellman, L.: An examination of short- and long-term air-ground temperature coupling, Glob. Planet. Change, 38, 291–303, 2003.
Beltrami, H. and Mareschal, J.-C.: Recent warming in eastern Canada inferred from Geothermal Measurements, Geophys. Res. Lett., 18, 605–608, 1991.
Beltrami, H. and Mareschal, J.-C.: Resolution of Ground Temperature Histories Inverted From Borehole Temperature Data, Glob. Planet. Change, 11, 57–70, 1995.
Beltrami, H., Jessop, A. M., and Mareschal, J.-C.: Ground temperature histories in eastern and central Canada from geothermal measurements: evidence of climate change, Palaeogeography, 98, 167–184, 1992.
Beltrami, H., Wang, J. F., and Bras, R. L.: Energy balance of the Earth's surface: heat flux history in Eastern Canada, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 3385–3388, 2000.
Beltrami, H., Smerdon, J. E., Pollack, H. N., and Huang, S.: Continental heat gain in the global climate system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 8-1–8-3, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014310, 2002.
Beltrami, H., Bourlon, E., Kellman, L., and González-Rouco, J. F.: Spatial patterns of ground heat gain in the Northern Hemisphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06717, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025676, 2006.
Beltrami, H., Smerdon, J. E., Matharoo, G. S., and Nickerson, N.: Impact of maximum borehole depths on inverted temperature histories in borehole paleoclimatology, Clim. Past, 7, 745–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-745-2011, 2011.
Bense, V. and Kooi, H.: Temporal and spatial variations of shallow subsurface temperature as a record of lateral variations in groundwater flow, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B04103, https://doi.org/10.10292003JB002782, 2004.
Bindoff, N., Willebrand, J., Artale, V., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J., Gulev, S., Hanawa, K., Le Quéré, C., Levitus, S., Nojiri, Y., Shum, C., Talley, L., and Unnikrishnan, A.: Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M., and Miller, H., Cambridge University Press, 2007.
Bodri, L. and Cermak, V.: Borehole climatology: a new method how to reconstruct climate, Elsevier, Oxford, 2007.
Brynjarsdottir, J. and Berliner, L. M.: Bayesian hierarchical modeling for temperature reconstruction from geothermal data, Ann. Appl. Statis., 5, 1328–1359, https://doi.org/10.1214/10–AOAS452, 2011.
Carslaw, H. S. and Jaeger, J. C.: Conduction of heat in solids, Oxford University Press, second edition edn., 1959.
Čermák, V. and Rybach, L.: Thermal conductivity and specific heat of minerals and rocks, in: Landolt Börnstein: Physical Properties of Rocks, Group V, Geophysics, Volume 1a, edited by: Angenheister, G., Springer, Berlin, 305–343, 1982.
Church, J. A., White, N. J., Konikow, L. F., Domingues, C. M., Cogley, J. G., Rignot, E., Gregory, J. M., van den Broeke, M. R., Monaghan, A. J., and Velicogna, I.: Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L18601, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048794, 2011.
Coats, S., Smerdon, E., Seager, R., Cook, B., and González-Rouco, J.: Megadroughts in S}outhwestern North America in millennium-length {ECHO-G simulations and their comparison to proxy drought reconstructions, J. Climate, 26, 7635–7649, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00603.1, 2013.
Davin, E. L., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., and Friedlingstein, P.: Impact of land cover change on surface climate: Relevance of the radiative forcing concept, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L13702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029678, 2007.
Demetrescu, C., Nitoiu, D., Boroneant, C., Marica, A., and Lucaschi, B.: Thermal signal propagation in soils in Romania: conductive and non-conductive processes, Clim. Past, 3, 637–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-637-2007, 2007.
Diochon, A. and Kellman, L.: Natural abundance measurements of 13C indicate increased mineralization in deep mineral soil after forest disturbance, Geoph. Res. Lett., 35, L14402, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034795, 2008.
Drury, M.: Thermal Conductivity, Thermal Diffusivity, Density and Porosity of Crystalline Rocks, Open file report 86-5, GSC. Earth Physics Branch, Ottawa, 1986.
Fernández-Donado, L., González-Rouco, J. F., Raible, C. C., Ammann, C. M., Barriopedro, D., García-Bustamante, E., Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J., Luterbacher, J., Phipps, S. J., Servonnat, J., Swingedouw, D., Tett, S. F. B., Wagner, S., Yiou, P., and Zorita, E.: Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium, Clim. Past, 9, 393–421, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-393-2013, 2013.
Goddard, L.: Heat hide and seek, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 158–161, 2014.
González-Rouco, J. F., Beltrami, H., Zorita, E., and Stevens, M. B.: Borehole climatology: a discussion based on contributions from climate modeling, Clim. Past, 4, 1–80, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018264, 2009.
Greve, R. and Blatter, H.: Dynamics of Ice Sheets and Glaciers, Adv. Geophys. Environ. Mechan. Mathemat., Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-03415-2, 2009.
Hansen, J., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., Willis, J., Genio, A. D., Koch, D., Lacis, A., Lo, K., Menon, S., Novakov, T., Perlwitz, J., Russell, G., Schmidt, G. A., and Tausnev, N.: Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications, Science, 308, 1431–1435, 2005.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., and von Schuckmann, K.: Earth's energy imbalance and implications, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 13421–13449, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011, 2011.
Hansen, J., Kharecha, P., Sato, M., Masson-Delmotte, V., Ackerman, F., Beerling, D. J., Hearty, P. J., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Hsu, S.-L., Parmesan, C., Rockstrom, J., Rohling, E. J., Sachs, J., Smith, P., Steffen, K., Van Susteren, L., von Schuckmann, K., and Zachos, J. C.: Assessing "Dangerous Climate Change": Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature, PLoS ONE, 8, e81648, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0081648, 2013.
Hansen, P. C.: Rank Deficient and Discrete Ill-Posed Problems, SIAM, Philadelphia, 1998.
Hansen, P. C.: Discrete Inverse Problems. Insight and Algorithms., SIAM, Philadelphia PA, 2010.
Harris, R. N. and Chapman, D. S.: Mid-Latitude (30–60° N) climatic warming inferred by combining borehole temperatures with surface air temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 747–750, 2001.
Hartmann, A. and Rath, V.: Uncertainties and shortcomings of ground surface temperature histories derived from inversion of temperature logs, J. Geophys. Engin., 2, 299–311, https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-2132, 2005.
Hotchkiss, W. and Ingersoll, L.: Post-glacial time calculations from recent geothermal measurements in the Calumet copper mines, J. Geology, 42, 113–142, 1934.
Huang, S.: 1851–2004 annual heat budget of the continental landmasses, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L04707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025300, 2006.
Huang, S., Pollack, H. N., and Shen, P. Y.: Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures, Nature, 403, 756–758, 2000.
Jansen, E., Overpeck, J., Briffa, K., Duplessy, J.-C., Joos, F., Masson-Delmotte, V., Olago, D., Otto-Bliesner, B., Peltier, W., Rahmstorf, S., Ramesh, R., Raynaud, D., Rind, D., Solomina, O., Villalba, R., and Zhang, D.: Palaeoclimate, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M., and Miller, H., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007.
Jaupart, C. and Marechal, J.-C.: Heat Generation and Transport in the Earth, Cambridge Univerity Press, New York, 2011.
Jessop, A. M.: The distribution of glacial perturbation of heat flow in Canada, Can. J. Earth Sci., 8, 162–166, 1971.
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K. C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–471, 1996.
Kellman, L., Beltrami, H., and Risk, D.: Changes in seasonal soil respiration with pasture conversion to forest in Atlantic Canada, Biogeochemistry, 82, 101–109, 2006.
Kosaka, Y. and Xie, S.-P.: Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling, Nature, advance online publication, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12534, 2013.
Lanczos, C.: Linear Differential Operators, Van Nostrand, London, 1961.
Lawrence, D., Slater, A., Romanovsky, V., and Nicolsky, D.: The sensitivity of a model projection of near-surface permafrost degradation to soil column depth and inclusion of soil organic matter, J. Geophys. Res., 113, F02011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JF000883, 2008.
Lawson, C. and Hanson, R.: Solving Least Squares Problems, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, 1974.
Levitus, S., Antonov, J., Wang, J., Delworth, T. L., Dixon, K. W., and Broccoli, A. J.: Anthropogenic warming of the Earth's climate system, Science, 292, 267–270, 2001.
Levitus, S., Antonov, J., and Boyer, T.: Warming of the world ocean, 1955–2003, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L02604, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021592, 2005.
Levitus, S., Antonov, J. I., Boyer, T. P., Baranova, O. K., Garcia, H. E., Locarnini, R. A., Mishonov, A. V., Reagan, J. R., Seidov, D., Yarosh, E. S., and Zweng, M. M.: World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10603, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051106, 2012.
Livingstone, S., Clark, C., and Tarasov, L.: Modelling North American palaeo-subglacial lakes and their meltwater drainage pathways, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 375, 13–33, 2013.
Majorowicz, J. and Wybraniec, S.: New terrestrial heat flow map of Europe after regional paleoclimatic correction application, Int. J. Earth Sci., 100, 881–887, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00531-010-0526-1, 2011.
Mareschal, J.-C. and Beltrami, H.: Evidence for recent warming from perturbed thermal gradients: examples from eastern Canada, Clim. Dyn., 6, 135–143, 1992.
Marshall, S., James, T., and Clarke, G.: North American ice sheet reconstructions at the Last Glacial Maximum, Quat. Sci. Rev., 21, 175–192, 2002.
Murphy, D. M., Solomon, S., Portmann, R. W., Rosenlof, K. H., Forster, P. M., and Wong, T.: An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 114, D17107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012105, 2009.
Ortega, P., Montoya, M., González-Rouco, F., Beltrami, H., and Swingedouw, D.: Variability of the ocean heat content during the last millennium: an assessment with the ECHO-g Model, Clim. Past, 9, 547–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-547-2013, 2013.
Pasquale, V., Verdoya, M., and Chiozzi, P.: Geothermics. Heat Flow in the Lithosphere, Springer, Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-02511-7, 2014.
Phipps, S. J., McGregor, H. V., Gergis, J., Gallant, A. J. E., Neukom, R., Stevenson, S., Ackerley, D., Brown, J. R., Fischer, M. J., and van Ommen, T. D.: Paleoclimate Data–Model Comparison and the Role of Climate Forcings over the Past 1500 Years, J. Climate, 26, 6915–6936, 2013.
Pielke, R. A.: Heat Storage Within the Earth System, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84, 331–335, 2003.
Pollack, H. N. and Huang, S.: Climate reconstruction from subsurface temperatures, Annu. Rev. Earth. Planet. Sci., 28, 339–365, 2000.
Pollack, H. N., Shen, P. Y., and Huang, S.: Inference of ground surface temperature history from subsurface temperature data: interpreting ensembles of borehole logs, Pageoph, 147, 537–550, 1996.
Pollack, H. N., Huang, S., and Shen, P. Y.: Climate change record in subsurface temperatures: a global perspective, Science, 282, 279–281, 1998.
Randall, D., Wood, R., Bony, S., Colman, R., Fichefet, T., Fyfe, J., Kattsov, V., Pitman, A., Shukla, J., Srinivasan, J., Stouffer, R., Sumi, A., and Taylor, K.: Cilmate Models and Their Evaluation, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M., and Miller, H., Cambridge University Press, 2007.
Rath, V. and Mottaghy, D.: Smooth inversion for ground surface temperature histories: estimating the optimum regularization parameter by generalised cross-validation, Geophys. J. Internat., 171, 1440–1448, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03587.x, 2007.
Rath, V., González-Rouco, J., and Goosse, H.: Impact of postglacial warming on borehole reconstructions of last millennium temperatures, Clim. Past, 8, 1059–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1059-2012, 2012.
Rhein, M., Rintoul, S., Aoki, S., Campos, E., Chambers, D., Feely, R., Gulev, S., Johnson, G., Josey, S., Kostianoy, A., Mauritzen, C., Roemmich, D., Talley, L., and Wang, F.: C}limate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, chap. Observations: Ocean, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Riseborough, D. W.: The mean annual temperature at the top of permafrost, the TTOP model, and the effect of unfrozen water, Permafr. Periglac. Proc., 13, 137–143, 2002.
Risk, D., Kellman, L., and Beltrami, H.: Carbon dioxide in soil profiles: Production and temperature dependence, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 11-1–11-4, 2002.
Risk, D., Kellman, L., and Beltrami, H.: A new method for in situ soil gas diffusivity measurement and applications in the monitoring of subsurface CO2 production, J. Geopys. Res., 113, G02018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JG000445, 2008.
Rolandone, F., Mareschal, J.-C., and Jaupart, C.: Heat flow at the base of the Laurentide Ice Sheet inferred from borehole temperature data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1944, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018046, 2003.
Saw, J. G., Yang, M. C. K., and Mo, T. C.: Chebyshev Inequality with Estimated Mean and Variance, The American Statistician, 38, 130–132, 1984.
Schmidt, H., Rast, S., Bunzel, F., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Kinne, S., Krismer, T., Stenchikov, G., Timmreck, C., Tomassini, L., and Walz, M.: Response of the middle atmosphere to anthropogenic and natural forcings in the CMIP5 simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth system model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 98–116, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20014, 2013.
Schmidt, W. L., Gosnold, W. D., and Enz, J. W.: A decade of air–ground temperature exchange from Fargo, North Dakota, Glob. Planet. Change, 29, 311–325, 2001.
Slagstad, T., Balling, N., Elvebakk, H., Midttømme, K., Olesen, O., Olsen, L., and Pascal, C.: Heat-flow measurements in Late Palaeoproterozoic to Permian geological provinces in south and central Norway and a new heat-flow map of Fennoscandia and the NorwegianGreenland Sea, Tectonophysics, 473, 341–361, 2009.
Smerdon, J. E., Pollack, H. N., Enz, J. W., and Lewis, M. J.: Conduction-dominated heat transport of the annual temperature signal in soil, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2431, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JB002351, 2003.
Smerdon, J. E., Pollack, H. N., Cermak, V., Enz, J. W., Kresl, M., Šafanda, J., and Wehmiller, J. F.: Air-ground temperature coupling and subsurface propagation of annual temperature signals, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D21107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005056, 2004.
Smerdon, J. E., Pollack, H. N., Cermak, V., Enz, J. W., Kresl, M., Safanda, J., and Wehmiller, J. F.: Daily, seasonal and annual relationships between air and subsurface temperatures, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D07101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005578, 2006.
Smerdon, J. E., Beltrami, H., Creelman, C., and Stevens, M. B.: Characterizing land surface processes: A quantitative analysis using air-ground thermal orbits, J. Geoph. Res., 114, D15102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011768, 2009.
Smith, M. W. and Riseborough, D. W.: Permafrost monitoring and detection of climate change, Permafr. Periglac. Proc., 7, 301–309, 1996.
Smith, M. W. and Riseborough, D. W.: Climate and the Limits of Permafrost: A Zonal Analysis, Permafr. Periglac. Proc., 13, 1–15, 2002.
Stensrud, D. J.: Parameterization schemes: keys to understanding numerical weather prediction models, Cambridge University Press, 2007.
Stieglitz, M. and Smerdon, J.: Characterizing Land-Atmosphere coupling and the implications for subsurface thermodynamics, J. Climate, 20, 21–37, 2007.
Stieglitz, M., Dery, S. J., Romanovsky, V. E., and Ostercamp, T. E.: The role of snow cover in the warming of the artic permafrost, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1721, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017337, 2003.
Sushama, L., Laprise, R., Caya, D., Verseghy, D., and Allard, M.: An RCM projection of soil thermal and moisture regimes for North American permafrost zones, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L20711, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031385, 2007.
Tarasov, L. and Peltier, W. R.: Impact of thermomechanical ice sheet coupling on a model of the 100 kyr ice age cycle, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 9517–9545, 1999.
Tarasov, L. and Peltier, W. R.: Greenland glacial history and local geodynamic consequences, Geophys. J. Int., 150, 198–229, 2002.
Tarasov, L. and Peltier, W. R.: Greenland glacial history, borehole constraints and Eemian extent, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2124–2143, 2003.
Tarasov, L. and Peltier, W. R.: A geophysically constrained large ensemble analysis of the deglacial history of the North American ice sheet complex, Quat. Sci. Rev., 23, 359–388, 2004.
Tarasov, L. and Peltier, W. R.: Coevolution of continental ice cover and permafrost extent over the last glacial-interglacial cycle in North America, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F02S08, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000661, 2007.
Tarasov, L., Dyke, A. S., Neal, R. M., and Peltier, W.: A data-calibrated distribution of deglacial chronologies for the North American ice complex from glaciological modeling, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 315/316, 30–40, 2012.
Trenberth, K. E.: An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth's global energy, Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustainab., 1, 19–27, 2009.
Varah, J. M.: On the Numerical Solution of Ill-conditioned Linear Systems with Applications to Ill-posed Problems, SIAM J. Numer. Anal., 10, 257–267, 1973.
Wang, J. and Bras, R.: Ground heat flux estimated from surface soil temperature, J. Hydrology, 216, 214–226, 1999.
Westaway, R. and Younger, P. L.: Accounting for palaeoclimate and topography: A rigorous approach to correction of the British geothermal dataset, Geothermics, 48, 31–51, 2013.
Zhu, J. and Liang, X.-Z.: Regional climate model simulations of US soil temperature and moisture during 1982-2002, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D24110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006472, 2005.
