Articles | Volume 20, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Jul 2024
Research article |
| 15 Jul 2024
| 15 Jul 2024
Large-ensemble simulations of the North American and Greenland ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum with a coupled atmospheric general circulation–ice sheet model
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Department of Physics and Earth Sciences, University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa, Japan
Ruza Ivanovic
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Lauren Gregoire
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Charlotte Lang
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Niall Gandy
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Department of Natural and Built Environment, Sheffield Hallam University, Sheffield, UK
Jonathan Gregory
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Tamsin L. Edwards
King's College London, London, UK
Oliver Pollard
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Robin S. Smith
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Related authors
Violet L. Patterson, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Niall Gandy, Stephen Cornford, Jonathan Owen, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, and Robin S. Smith
The Cryosphere, 20, 2589–2628, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2589-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2589-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations of the last two glacial periods are ran using a computer model in which the atmosphere and ice sheets interact. The model is able to produce ice sheet volumes, extents and dynamics in good agreement with data. Sensitivity analysis is undertaken and shows the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet size is particularly sensitive to the albedo of the ice in the model but the different ice sheets display different sensitivities to other processes.
Nozomi Arima, Masakazu Yoshimori, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Ryouta O'ishi, Wing-Le Chan, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, and Tomoo Ogura
Clim. Past, 22, 891–913, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-891-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-891-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
During the Last Interglacial period, spanning 129 000 to 116 000 years ago, the Arctic was considered warmer than during the preindustrial period. Many climate models do not simulate an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer, as suggested by recent reconstructions. Here, we examine the importance of how the liquid or solid phase of cloud particles is determined in models. It is found that the representation of cloud phase indeed has a substantial impact on the simulation of summer sea ice cover.
Takashi Obase, Takanori Kodama, Takao Kawasaki, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Daisuke Takasuka, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Masakazu Fujii
Clim. Past, 22, 845–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-845-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-845-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
In the past, Earth might have experienced its surface completely covered with ice. Using an atmosphere-ocean climate model, we examined the evolution in the ocean circulation from modern to the snowball Earth. We found that the deep ocean ocean circulation experienced drastic weakening before the snowball onset by salinity changes, and after that the ocean circulation resumed. The ocean circulation changes have implications for understanding climate system feedback on the past snowball events.
Takashi Obase, Laurie Menviel, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Tristan Vadsaria, Ruza Ivanovic, Brooke Snoll, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Paul J. Valdes, Lauren Gregoire, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Roche, Fanny Lhardy, Chengfei He, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Zhengyu Liu, and Wing-Le Chan
Clim. Past, 21, 1443–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses transient simulations of the last deglaciation performed by six climate models to understand the processes driving high-southern-latitude temperature changes. We find that atmospheric CO2 and AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) changes are the primary drivers of the warming and cooling during the middle stage of the deglaciation. The analysis highlights the model's sensitivity of CO2 and AMOC to meltwater and the meltwater history of temperature changes at high southern latitudes.
Brooke Snoll, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Laurie Menviel, Takashi Obase, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Chengfei He, Feng He, Marie Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Juan Muglia, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 789–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Geological records show rapid climate change throughout the recent deglaciation. The drivers of these changes are still misunderstood but are often attributed to shifts in the Atlantic Ocean circulation from meltwater input. A cumulative effort to understand these processes prompted numerous simulations of this period. We use these to explain the chain of events and our collective ability to simulate them. The results demonstrate the importance of the meltwater amount used in the simulation.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Akira Oka, Takahito Mitsui, and Fuyuki Saito
Clim. Past, 17, 1919–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial periods underwent climate shifts between warm states and cold states on a millennial timescale. Frequency of these climate shifts varied along time: it was shorter during mid-glacial period compared to early glacial period. Here, from climate simulations of early and mid-glacial periods with a comprehensive climate model, we show that the larger ice sheet in the mid-glacial compared to early glacial periods could contribute to the frequent climate shifts during the mid-glacial period.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Violet L. Patterson, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Niall Gandy, Stephen Cornford, Jonathan Owen, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, and Robin S. Smith
The Cryosphere, 20, 2589–2628, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2589-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2589-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations of the last two glacial periods are ran using a computer model in which the atmosphere and ice sheets interact. The model is able to produce ice sheet volumes, extents and dynamics in good agreement with data. Sensitivity analysis is undertaken and shows the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet size is particularly sensitive to the albedo of the ice in the model but the different ice sheets display different sensitivities to other processes.
Nozomi Arima, Masakazu Yoshimori, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Ryouta O'ishi, Wing-Le Chan, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, and Tomoo Ogura
Clim. Past, 22, 891–913, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-891-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-891-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
During the Last Interglacial period, spanning 129 000 to 116 000 years ago, the Arctic was considered warmer than during the preindustrial period. Many climate models do not simulate an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer, as suggested by recent reconstructions. Here, we examine the importance of how the liquid or solid phase of cloud particles is determined in models. It is found that the representation of cloud phase indeed has a substantial impact on the simulation of summer sea ice cover.
Yue Li, Gang Tang, Eleanor O'Rourke, Samar Minallah, Martim Mas e Braga, Sophie Nowicki, Robin S. Smith, David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Daniele Peano, Gesa Meyer, Birgit Hassler, Jiafu Mao, Yongkang Xue, and Martin Juckes
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3129–3155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3129-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3129-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Land and Land Ice Theme Opportunities describe a list that contains 25 variable groups with 716 variables, which are potentially available to the broad scientific audience for performing analysis in land–atmosphere coupling, hydrological processes and freshwater systems, glacier and ice sheet mass balance and their influence on the sea levels, land use, and plant phenology.
Takashi Obase, Takanori Kodama, Takao Kawasaki, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Daisuke Takasuka, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Masakazu Fujii
Clim. Past, 22, 845–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-845-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-845-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
In the past, Earth might have experienced its surface completely covered with ice. Using an atmosphere-ocean climate model, we examined the evolution in the ocean circulation from modern to the snowball Earth. We found that the deep ocean ocean circulation experienced drastic weakening before the snowball onset by salinity changes, and after that the ocean circulation resumed. The ocean circulation changes have implications for understanding climate system feedback on the past snowball events.
Laura Endres, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Anna L. C. Hughes, Hai Cheng, and Heather Stoll
Clim. Past, 22, 797–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-797-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-797-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Stable isotope data of a precisely dated stalagmite from northwestern Iberia indicate gradual North Atlantic meltwater input during the last glacial maximum, followed by abrupt surges early in the last deglaciation. The first abrupt surge was decoupled from first cooling about 810 years later – unlike later events – which reveals that the Atlantic circulation’s sensitivity to meltwater is variable and related to the evolving background climate boundary conditions.
Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Dimitris Menemenlis, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, and Qin Zhou
The Cryosphere, 20, 2053–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, compares 12 ice shelf-ocean models with a common, idealised, static configuration, aiming to assess inter-model variability. Models show similar basal melt rate patterns, ocean profiles and circulation but differ in ice-ocean boundary layer properties. Ice-ocean boundary layer representation is a key area for future work, as are realistic-domain ice sheet-ocean model intercomparisons.
Didier Swingedouw, Laura Jackson, Aixue Hu, Anastasia Romanou, Nicole C. Laureanti, Wilbert Weijer, Sina Loriani, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Lucas Almeida, Alessio Bellucci, Reyk Börner, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Donovan P. Dennis, Marion Devilliers, Sybren Drijfhout, Jonathan Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas L. Frölicher, Guillaume Gastineau, Heiko Goelzer, Chuncheng Guo, Urs Hofmann, Anna Höse, Colin Jones, Torben Koenigk, Ann Kristin Klose, Valerio Lembo, Jose Licon-Salaiz, Ken Mankoff, Virna Meccia, Irina Melnikova, Oliver Mehling, Laurie Menviel, Juliette Mignot, Jon I. Robson, Gavin A. Schmidt, Robin Smith, Yuchen Sun, Irene Trombini, Matteo Willeit, Richard Wood, Fanghua Wu, Lin Zhaohui, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1698, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a plan for climate model experiments to better understand how changes in freshwater in the North Atlantic affect major ocean currents. We designed coordinated simulations to test their response to warming, added freshwater, and possible recovery after weakening. Comparing results across models and past climate evidence helps improve confidence in projections and assess risks of large ocean circulation changes.
Paulo Ceppi, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Mark D. Zelinka, Timothy Andrews, Florent Brient, Robin Chadwick, Jonathan M. Gregory, Yen-Ting Hwang, Sarah M. Kang, Jennifer E. Kay, Thorsten Mauritsen, Tomoo Ogura, George Tselioudis, Masahiro Watanabe, Mark J. Webb, and Allison A. Wing
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-398, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds constitute a key uncertainty for climate change projections. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) aims to address this challenge by evaluating and understanding clouds and their impacts on atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and climate sensitivity. The present paper describes the CFMIP experiment protocol for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), and discusses the accompanying science questions and opportunities for progress.
Ethan Lee, Jeremy C. Ely, Sarah L. Bradley, Tamsin L. Edwards, and Bethan J. Davies
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6169, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
The South American Andes are the least well known in their futures. We can use numerical models to estimate the change of these glaciers to future climate change. However, options within the numerical model which effect the results are unknown. We vary these options of selected important options to understand their effect on the numerical model output across the South American Andes. We find that how the model approximates sediment friction, and sliding, to be important on model output.
Heiko Goelzer, Constantijn J. Berends, Fredrik Boberg, Gael Durand, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Quentin Glaude, Philippe Huybrechts, Sébastien Le clec'h, Ruth Mottram, Brice Noël, Martin Olesen, Charlotte Rahlves, Jeremy Rohmer, Michiel van den Broeke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 6887–6906, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present an ensemble of ice sheet model projections for the Greenland ice sheet. The focus is on providing projections that improve our understanding of the range future sea-level rise and the inherent uncertainties over the next 100 to 300 years. Compared to earlier work we more fully account for some of the uncertainties in sea-level projections. We include a wider range of climate model output, more climate change scenarios and we extend projections schematically up to year 2300.
Jeremy Rohmer, Heiko Goelzer, Tamsin L. Edwards, Goneri Le Cozannet, and Gael Durand
The Cryosphere, 19, 6421–6444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6421-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6421-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Developing robust protocols to design multi-model ensembles is of primary importance for the uncertainty quantification of sea level projections. Here, we set up a series of computer experiments to reflect design decisions for the prediction of future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet in 2100. We show the importance of including the most extreme climate scenario and the implications of using a single type of numerical model for ice sheets or regional climate.
Robin S. Smith, Tarkan A. Bilge, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Till Kuhlbrodt, Charlotte Lang, Spencer Liddicoat, Tom Mitcham, Jane Mulcahy, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Andrew Orr, Julien Palmieri, Antony J. Payne, Steven Rumbold, Marc Stringer, Ranjini Swaminathan, Sarah Taylor, Jeremy Walton, and Colin Jones
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4476, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
There is a dangerous amount of uncertainty in our predictions of climate change in polar regions because some of feedbacks that might lead to changes that are too rapid for us to adapt to, or that cannot be reversed. We have run a set of simulations with a state-of-the-art Earth System Model that helps improve our understanding of how climate in these regions might change. Some of the aspects we investigate are reversible but many are not, especially those affecting ice sheets and sea level.
Takashi Obase, Laurie Menviel, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Tristan Vadsaria, Ruza Ivanovic, Brooke Snoll, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Paul J. Valdes, Lauren Gregoire, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Roche, Fanny Lhardy, Chengfei He, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Zhengyu Liu, and Wing-Le Chan
Clim. Past, 21, 1443–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses transient simulations of the last deglaciation performed by six climate models to understand the processes driving high-southern-latitude temperature changes. We find that atmospheric CO2 and AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) changes are the primary drivers of the warming and cooling during the middle stage of the deglaciation. The analysis highlights the model's sensitivity of CO2 and AMOC to meltwater and the meltwater history of temperature changes at high southern latitudes.
Alexander T. Bradley, David T. Bett, C. Rosie Williams, Robert J. Arthern, Paul R. Holland, James Bryne, and Tamsin L. Edwards
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2315, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
At least since we started measuring in detail, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has lost a lot of ice, but we don't know if climate change is responsible. In this work, we put a number on the role of climate change in retreat of a glacier in this ice sheet, for the first time. We show that climate change made the shrinking of this glacier much worse. Our work also suggests that what happened on very long timescales (the last 10,000 years) might also matter for retreat of the ice sheets today.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Peter U. Clark, Jeremy D. Shakun, Yair Rosenthal, Chenyu Zhu, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jonathan M. Gregory, Peter Köhler, Zhengyu Liu, and Daniel P. Schrag
Clim. Past, 21, 973–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-973-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-973-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct changes in mean ocean temperature (ΔMOT) over the last 4.5 Myr. We find that the ratio of ΔMOT to changes in global mean sea surface temperature was around 0.5 before the Middle Pleistocene transition but was 1 thereafter. We subtract our ΔMOT reconstruction from the global δ18O record to derive the δ18O of seawater. Finally, we develop a theoretical understanding of why the ratio of ΔMOT / ΔGMSST changed over the Plio-Pleistocene.
Elisa Ziegler, Nils Weitzel, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lauren Gregoire, Ruza Ivanovic, Paul J. Valdes, Christian Wirths, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 21, 627–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-627-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
During the Last Deglaciation, global surface temperature rose by about 4–7 °C over several millennia. We show that changes in year-to-year up to century-to-century fluctuations of temperature and precipitation during the Deglaciation were mostly larger than during either the preceding or succeeding more stable periods in 15 climate model simulations. The analysis demonstrates how ice sheets, meltwater, and volcanism influence simulated variability to inform future simulation protocols.
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Hélène L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Mira Adhikari, and Lauren J. Gregoire
The Cryosphere, 19, 541–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century under a range of future climates and varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that ocean temperatures increase and more snow falls on the ice sheet under stronger warming scenarios. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melt-driven loss exceeds snowfall-driven gains, meaning that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.
Christopher L. Hancock, Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Sylvia G. Dee, and Ruza F. Ivanovic
Clim. Past, 20, 2663–2684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2663-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct global hydroclimate anomalies for the past 21 000 years using a data assimilation methodology blending observations recorded in lake sediments with the climate dynamics simulated by climate models. The reconstruction resolves data–model disagreement in east Africa and North America, and we find that changing global temperatures and associated circulation patterns, as well as orbital forcing, are the dominant controls on global precipitation over this interval.
Violet L. Patterson, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Owen, Robin S. Smith, Oliver G. Pollard, Lachlan C. Astfalck, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 2191–2218, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations of the last two glacial periods are run using a computer model in which the atmosphere and ice sheets interact. The results show that the initial conditions used in the simulations are the primary reason for the difference in simulated North American ice sheet volume between each period. Thus, the climate leading up to the glacial maxima and other factors, such as vegetation, are important contributors to the differences in the ice sheets at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima.
Brooke Snoll, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Laurie Menviel, Takashi Obase, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Chengfei He, Feng He, Marie Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Juan Muglia, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 789–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Geological records show rapid climate change throughout the recent deglaciation. The drivers of these changes are still misunderstood but are often attributed to shifts in the Atlantic Ocean circulation from meltwater input. A cumulative effort to understand these processes prompted numerous simulations of this period. We use these to explain the chain of events and our collective ability to simulate them. The results demonstrate the importance of the meltwater amount used in the simulation.
Tom Keel, Chris Brierley, and Tamsin Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1229–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Jet streams are an important control on surface weather as their speed and shape can modify the properties of weather systems. Establishing trends in the operation of jet streams may provide some indication of the future of weather in a warming world. Despite this, it has not been easy to establish trends, as many methods have been used to characterise them in data. We introduce a tool containing various implementations of jet stream statistics and algorithms that works in a standardised manner.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Alexander Reedy, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7461–7489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future sea-level rise projections exhibit multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision-making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea-level projections.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Oliver G. Pollard, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Lauren J. Gregoire, Natalya Gomez, Víctor Cartelle, Jeremy C. Ely, and Lachlan C. Astfalck
The Cryosphere, 17, 4751–4777, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use advanced statistical techniques and a simple ice-sheet model to produce an ensemble of plausible 3D shapes of the ice sheet that once stretched across northern Europe during the previous glacial maximum (140,000 years ago). This new reconstruction, equivalent in volume to 48 ± 8 m of global mean sea-level rise, will improve the interpretation of high sea levels recorded from the Last Interglacial period (120 000 years ago) that provide a useful perspective on the future.
Suzanne Robinson, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, Julia Tindall, Tina van de Flierdt, Yves Plancherel, Frerk Pöppelmeier, Kazuyo Tachikawa, and Paul J. Valdes
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1231–1264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1231-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1231-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the implementation of neodymium (Nd) isotopes into the ocean model of FAMOUS (Nd v1.0). Nd fluxes from seafloor sediment and incorporation of Nd onto sinking particles represent the major global sources and sinks, respectively. However, model–data mismatch in the North Pacific and northern North Atlantic suggest that certain reactive components of the sediment interact the most with seawater. Our results are important for interpreting Nd isotopes in terms of ocean circulation.
Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Nathan Steiger, Sylvia Dee, Chris Hancock, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 18, 2599–2629, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To look at climate over the past 12 000 years, we reconstruct spatial temperature using natural climate archives and information from model simulations. Our results show mild global mean warmth around 6000 years ago, which differs somewhat from past reconstructions. Undiagnosed seasonal biases in the data could explain some of the observed temperature change, but this still would not explain the large difference between many reconstructions and climate models over this period.
Benjamin J. Stoker, Martin Margold, John C. Gosse, Alan J. Hidy, Alistair J. Monteath, Joseph M. Young, Niall Gandy, Lauren J. Gregoire, Sophie L. Norris, and Duane Froese
The Cryosphere, 16, 4865–4886, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4865-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4865-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Laurentide Ice Sheet was the largest ice sheet to grow and disappear in the Northern Hemisphere during the last glaciation. In northwestern Canada, it covered the Mackenzie Valley, blocking the migration of fauna and early humans between North America and Beringia and altering the drainage systems. We reconstruct the timing of ice sheet retreat in this region and the implications for the migration of early humans into North America, the drainage of glacial lakes, and past sea level rise.
Suzanne Robinson, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Lachlan Astfalck, Tina van de Flierdt, Yves Plancherel, Frerk Pöppelmeier, and Kazuyo Tachikawa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-937, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-937, 2022
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
The neodymium (Nd) isotope (εNd) scheme in the ocean model of FAMOUS is used to explore a benthic Nd flux to seawater. Our results demonstrate that sluggish modern Pacific waters are sensitive to benthic flux alterations, whereas the well-ventilated North Atlantic displays a much weaker response. In closing, there are distinct regional differences in how seawater acquires its εNd signal, in part relating to the complex interactions of Nd addition and water advection.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
Charles J. R. Williams, Alistair A. Sellar, Xin Ren, Alan M. Haywood, Peter Hopcroft, Stephen J. Hunter, William H. G. Roberts, Robin S. Smith, Emma J. Stone, Julia C. Tindall, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 17, 2139–2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from a simulation of the mid-Pliocene (approximately 3 million years ago) using the latest version of the UK’s climate model. The simulation reproduces temperatures as expected and shows some improvement relative to previous versions of the same model. The simulation is, however, arguably too warm when compared to other models and available observations.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Akira Oka, Takahito Mitsui, and Fuyuki Saito
Clim. Past, 17, 1919–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial periods underwent climate shifts between warm states and cold states on a millennial timescale. Frequency of these climate shifts varied along time: it was shorter during mid-glacial period compared to early glacial period. Here, from climate simulations of early and mid-glacial periods with a comprehensive climate model, we show that the larger ice sheet in the mid-glacial compared to early glacial periods could contribute to the frequent climate shifts during the mid-glacial period.
Robin S. Smith, Steve George, and Jonathan M. Gregory
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5769–5787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Many of the complex computer models used to study the physics of the natural world treat ice sheets as fixed and unchanging, capable of only simple interactions with the rest of the climate. This is partly because it is technically very difficult to usefully do anything more realistic. We have adapted a climate model so it can be joined together with a dynamical model of the Greenland ice sheet. This gives us a powerful tool to help us better understand how ice sheets and the climate interact.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Roland Séférian, Charles Amory, Alison Delhasse, Sébastien Doutreloup, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Joris Van Bever, Florent Veillon, and Peter Irvine
The Cryosphere, 15, 3013–3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Without any reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions, the Greenland ice sheet surface mass loss can be brought in line with a medium-mitigation emissions scenario by reducing the solar downward flux at the top of the atmosphere by 1.5 %. In addition to reducing global warming, these solar geoengineering measures also dampen the well-known positive melt–albedo feedback over the ice sheet by 6 %. However, only stronger reductions in solar radiation could maintain a stable ice sheet in 2100.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Cited articles
Abe-Ouchi, A., Segawa, T., and Saito, F.: Climatic Conditions for modelling the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets throughout the ice age cycle, Clim. Past, 3, 423–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-423-2007, 2007.
Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., Kawamura, K., Raymo, M. E., Okuno, J., Takahashi, K., and Blatter, H.: Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume, Nature, 500, 190–193, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12374, 2013.
Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., Kageyama, M., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Lambeck, K., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Peltier, W. R., Tarasov, L., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., and Takahashi, K.: Ice-sheet configuration in the CMIP5/PMIP3 Last Glacial Maximum experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3621–3637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, 2015.
Alder, J. R. and Hostetler, S. W.: Applying the Community Ice Sheet Model to evaluate PMIP3 LGM climatologies over the North American ice sheets, Clim. Dynam., 53, 2807–2824, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04663-x, 2019.
Blasco, J., Alvarez-Solas, J., Robinson, A., and Montoya, M.: Exploring the impact of atmospheric forcing and basal drag on the Antarctic Ice Sheet under Last Glacial Maximum conditions, The Cryosphere, 15, 215–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-215-2021, 2021.
Braconnot, P., Otto-Bliesner, B., Harrison, S., Joussaume, S., Peterchmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Crucifix, M., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, Th., Hewitt, C. D., Kageyama, M., Kitoh, A., Laîné, A., Loutre, M.-F., Marti, O., Merkel, U., Ramstein, G., Valdes, P., Weber, S. L., Yu, Y., and Zhao, Y.: Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum – Part 1: experiments and large-scale features, Clim. Past, 3, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-261-2007, 2007.
Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Zhao, Y.: Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 417–424, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012.
Bradley, S. L., Reerink, T. J., van de Wal, R. S. W., and Helsen, M. M.: Simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet over two glacial–interglacial cycles: investigating a sub-ice- shelf melt parameterization and relative sea level forcing in an ice-sheet–ice-shelf model, Clim. Past, 14, 619–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, 2018.
Bradley, S. L., Sellevold, R., Petrini, M., Vizcaino, M., Georgiou, S., Zhu, J., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Lofverstrom, M.: Surface mass balance and climate of the Last Glacial Maximum Northern Hemisphere ice sheets: simulations with CESM2.1, Clim. Past, 20, 211–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, 2024.
Briggs, R. D., Pollard, D., and Tarasov, L.: A data-constrained large ensemble analysis of Antarctic evolution since the Eemian, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 103, 91–115, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.09.003, 2014.
Clark, P. U. and Mix, A. C.: Ice sheets and sea level of the Last Glacial Maximum, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00118-4, 2002.
Clark, P. U., Dyke, A. S., Shakun, J. D., Carlson, A. E., Clark, J., Wohlfarth, B., Mitrovica, J. X., Hostetler, S. W., and McCabe, A. M.: The Last Glacial Maximum, Science, 325, 710–714, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1172873, 2009.
Cornford, S. L., Martin, D. F., Graves, D. T., Ranken, D. F., Le Brocq, A. M., Gladstone, R. M., Payne, A. J., Ng, E. G., and Lipscomb, W. H.: Adaptive mesh, finite volume modeling of marine ice sheets, J. Comput. Phys., 232, 529–549, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2012.08.037, 2013.
Dalton, A. S., Margold, M., Stokes, C. R., Tarasov, L., Dyke, A. S., Adams, R. S., Allard, S., Arends, H. E., Atkinson, N., Attig, J. W., Barnett, P. J., Barnett, R. L., Batterson, M., Bernatchez, P., Borns Jr., H. W., Breckenridge, A., Briner, J. P., Brouard, E., Campbell, J. E., Carlson, A. E., Clague, J. J., Curry, B. B., Daigneault, R.-A., Dubé-Loubert, H., Easterbrook, D. J., Franzi, D. A., Friedrich, H. G., Funder, S., Gauthier, M. S., Gowan, A. S., Harris, K. L., Hétu, B., Hooyer, T. S., Jennings, C. E., Johnson, M. D., Kehew, A. E., Kelley, S. E., Kerr, D., King, E. L., Kjeldsen, K. K., Knaeble, A. R., Lajeunesse, P., Lakeman, T. R., Lamothe, M., Larson, P., Lavoie, M., Loope, H. M., Lowell, T. V., Lusardi, B. A., Manz, L., McMartin, I., Nixon, F. C., Occhietti, S., Parkhill, M. A., Piper, D. J. W., Pronk, A. G., Richard, P. J. H., Ridge, J. C., Ross, M., Roy, M., Seaman, A., Shaw, J., Stea, R. R., Teller, J. T., Thompson, W. B., Thorleifson, L. H., Utting, D. J., Veillette, J. J., Ward, B. C., Weddle, T. K., and Wright Jr., H. E.: An updated radiocarbon-based ice margin chronology for the last deglaciation of the North American Ice Sheet Complex, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 234, 106223, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106223, 2020.
DeConto, R. and Pollard, D.: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise, Nature, 531, 591–597, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145, 2016.
Dyke, A. S., Andrews, J. T., Clark, P. U., England, J. H., Miller, G. H., Shaw, J., and Veillette, J. J.: The Laurentide and Innuitian ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 9–31, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00095-6, 2002.
Edwards, T. L., Nowicki, S., Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Jourdain, N. C., Slater, D. A., Turner, F. E., Smith, C. J., McKenna, C. M., Simon, E., Abe-Ouchi, A., Gregory, J. M., Larour, E., Lipscom b, W. H., Payne, A. J., Shepherd, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Albrecht, T., Anderson, B., Asay-Davis, X., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Bliss, A., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Champollion, N., Choi, Y., Cullather, R., Cu zzone, J., Dumas, C., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Fujita, K., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huss, M., Huybrechts, P., Immerzeel, W., Kle iner, T., Kraaijenbrink, P., Le clec’h, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G. R., Little, C. M., Lowry, D. P., Malles, J.-H., Martin, D. F., Maussion, F., Morlighem, M., O’Neill, J. F., Nias, I., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., R adić, V., Reese, R., Rounce, D. R., Rückamp, M., Sakai, A., Shafer, C., Schlegel, N.-J., Shannon, S., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Tarasov, L., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R., van den Broeke, M., Winkelmann, R., Zekollari, H., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise, Nature, 593, 74–82, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y, 2021.
Gandy, N., Gregoire, L. J., Ely, J. C., Clark, C. D., Hodgson, D. M., Lee, V., Bradwell, T., and Ivanovic, R. F.: Marine ice sheet instability and ice shelf buttressing of the Minch Ice Stream, northwest Scotland, The Cryosphere, 12, 3635–3651, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3635-2018, 2018.
Gandy, N., Gregoire, L. J., Ely, J. C., Cornford, S. L., Clark, C. D., and Hodgson, D. M.: Exploring tile ingredients required to successfully model the placement, generation, and evolution of ice streams in the British-Irish Ice Sheet, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 223, 105915, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.105915, 2019.
Gandy, N., Gregoire, L. J., Ely, J. C., Cornford, S. L., Clark, C. D., and Hodgson, D. M.: Collapse of the last Eurasian Ice Sheet in the North Sea modulated by combined processes of ice flow, surface melt, and marine ice sheet instabilities, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 126, e2020JF005755. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JF005755, 2021.
Gandy, N., Astfalck, L. C., Gregoire, L. J., Ivanovic, R. F., Patterson, V. L., Sherriff-Tadano, S., Smith, R. S., Williamson, D., and Rigby, R.: De-tuning albedo parameters in a coupled Climate Ice Sheet model to simulate the North American Ice Sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 128, e2023JF007250, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JF007250, 2023.
Golledge, N. R., Keller, E. D., Gomez, N., Naughten, K. A., Bernales, J., Trusel, L. D., and Edwards, T. L.: Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt, Nature, 566, 65–72, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9, 2019.
Gowan, E. J., Niu, L., Knorr, G., and Lohmann, G.: Geology datasets in North America, Greenland and surrounding areas for use with ice sheet models, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-375-2019, 2019.
Gowan, E. J., Zhang, X., Khosravi, S., Rovere, A., Stocchi, P., Hughes, A. L. C., Gyllencreutz, R., Mangerud, J., Svendsen, J.-I., and Lohmann, G.: A new global ice sheet reconstruction for the past 80000 years, Nat. Commun., 12, 1199, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21469-w, 2021.
Gregoire, L. J., Valdes, P. J., Payne, A. J., and Kahana, R.: Optimal tuning of a GCM using modern and glacial constraints, Clim. Dynam., 37, 705–719, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0934-8, 2011.
Gregoire, L. J., Payne, A. J., and Valdes, P. J.: Deglacial rapid sea level rises caused by ice-sheet saddle collapses, Nature, 487, 219–222, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11257, 2012.
Gregoire, L. J., Ivanovic, R. F., Maycock, A. C., Valdes, P. J., and Stevenson, S.: Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate, Clim. Dynam., 51, 3797–3813, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4111-9, 2018.
Gregory, J. M., Browne, O. J. H., Payne, A. J., Ridley, J. K., and Rutt, I. C.: Modelling large-scale ice-sheet–climate interactions following glacial inception, Clim. Past, 8, 1565–1580, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1565-2012, 2012.
Gregory, J. M., George, S. E., and Smith, R. S.: Large and irreversible future decline of the Greenland ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 14, 4299–4322, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020, 2020.
Heymsfield, A. J.: Precipitation Development in Stratiform Ice Clouds: A Microphysical and Dynamical Study, J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 367–381, 1977.
Hinck, S., Gowan, E. J., Zhang, X., and Lohmann, G.: PISM-LakeCC: Implementing an adaptive proglacial lake boundary in an ice sheet model, The Cryosphere, 16, 941–965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022, 2022.
Holden, P. B., Edwards, N. R., Oliver, K. I. C., Lenton, T. M., and Wilkinson, R. D.: A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1, Clim. Dynam., 35, 785–806, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0630-8, 2010.
Hughes, A. L. C., Gyllencreutz, R., Lohne, Ø. S., Mangerud, J., Svendsen, J. I.: The last Eurasian ice sheets – a chronological database and time-slice reconstruction, DATED-1, Boreas, 45, 1–45, https://doi.org/10.1111/bor.12142, 2016.
IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, ISBN 9781009157896, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2023.
Ivanovic, R. F., Gregoire, L. J., Kageyama, M., Roche, D. M., Valdes, P. J., Burke, A., Drummond, R., Peltier, W. R., and Tarasov, L.: Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21–9 thousand years before present (version 1) – PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2563-2016, 2016.
Ivanovic, R. F., Gregoire, L. J., Burke, A., Wickert, A. D., Valdes, P. J., Ng, H. C., Robinson, L. F., McManus, J. F., Mitrovica, J. X., Lee, L., and Dentith, J. E.: Acceleration of Northern Ice Sheet Melt Induces AMOC Slowdown and Northern Cooling in Simulations of the Early Last Deglaciation, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 33, 807–824, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017pa003308, 2018.
Izumi, K., Valdes, P., Ivanovic, R., and Gregoire, L.: Impacts of the PMIP4 ice sheets on Northern Hemisphere climate during the last glacial period, Clim. Dynam., 60, 2481–2499, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06456-1, 2023.
Joshi, M. M., Webb, M. J., Maycock, A. C., and Collins, M.: Stratospheric water vapour and high climate sensitivity in a version of the HadSM3 climate model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7161–7167, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7161-2010, 2010.
Kachuck, S. B., Martin, D. F., Bassis, J. N., and Price, S. F.: Rapid viscoelastic deformation slows marine ice sheet instability at Pine Island Glacier, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086446, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086446, 2020.
Kageyama, M., Albani, S., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Hopcroft, P. O., Ivanovic, R. F., Lambert, F., Marti, O., Peltier, W. R., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Roche, D. M., Tarasov, L., Zhang, X., Brady, E. C., Haywood, A. M., LeGrande, A. N., Lunt, D. J., Mahowald, N. M., Mikolajewicz, U., Nisancioglu, K. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Renssen, H., Tomas, R. A., Zhang, Q., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bartlein, P. J., Cao, J., Li, Q., Lohmann, G., Ohgaito, R., Shi, X., Volodin, E., Yoshida, K., Zhang, X., and Zheng, W.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 4: Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017.
Kageyama, M., Harrison, S. P., Kapsch, M.-L., Lofverstrom, M., Lora, J. M., Mikolajewicz, U., Sherriff-Tadano, S., Vadsaria, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bouttes, N., Chandan, D., Gregoire, L. J., Ivanovic, R. F., Izumi, K., LeGrande, A. N., Lhardy, F., Lohmann, G., Morozova, P. A., Ohgaito, R., Paul, A., Peltier, W. R., Poulsen, C. J., Quiquet, A., Roche, D. M., Shi, X., Tierney, J. E., Valdes, P. J., Volodin, E., and Zhu, J.: The PMIP4 Last Glacial Maximum experiments: preliminary results and comparison with the PMIP3 simulations, Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021.
Klockmann, M., Mikolajewicz, U., and Marotzke, J.: The effect of greenhouse gas concentrations and ice sheets on the glacial AMOC in a coupled climate model, Clim. Past, 12, 1829–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1829-2016, 2016.
Lecavalier, B. S., Milne, G. A., Simpson, M. J. R., Wake, L., Huybrechts, P., Tarasov, L., Kjeldsen, K. K., Funder, S., Long, A. J., Woodroffe, S., Dyke, A. S., and Larsen, N. K.: A model of Greenland ice sheet deglaciation constrained by observations of relative sea level and ice extent, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 102, 54–84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.07.018, 2014.
Lee, V., Cornford, S., and Payne, A.: Initialization of an ice-sheet model for present-day Greenland, Ann. Glaciol., 56, 129–140, https://doi.org/10.3189/2015AoG70A121, 2015.
Levitus, S. and US National Oceanographic Data Center: NODC Standard Product: World Ocean Atlas 1998 (7 disc set) (NCEI Accession 0095184), NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information [data set], https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/archive/accession/0095184 (last access: 10 July 2024), 2012.
Lofverstrom, M., Liakka, J., and Kleman, J.: The North American Cordillera-An Impediment to Growing the Continent-Wide Laurentide Ice Sheet, J. Climate, 28, 9433–9450, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0044.1, 2015.
Manabe, S. and Broccoli, A. J.: The Influence of Continental Ice Sheets on the Climate of an Ice Age, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 90, 2167–2190, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD090iD01p02167, 1985.
Margold, M., Stokes, C. R., and Clark, C. D.: Reconciling records of ice streaming and ice margin retreat to produce a palaeogeographic reconstruction of the deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 189, 1–30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.03.013, 2018.
Martin, D. F., Cornford, S. L., and Payne, A. J.: Millennial-scale vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to regional ice shelf collapse, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 1467–1475, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081229, 2019.
Matero, I. S. O., Gregoire, L. J., and Ivanovic, R. F.: Simulating the Early Holocene demise of the Laurentide Ice Sheet with BISICLES (public trunk revision 3298), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4555–4577, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4555-2020, 2020.
Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., Barnett, D. N., Jones, G. S., Webb, M. J., Collins, M., and Stainforth, D. A.: Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations, Nature, 430, 768–772, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02771, 2004.
Niu, L., Lohmann, G., Hinck, S., Gowan, E. J., and Krebs-Kanzow, U.: The sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to atmospheric forcing during the last glacial cycle using PMIP3 models, J. Glaciol., 65, 645–661, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.42, 2019.
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information: State of the Climate: Global Climate Report for 2022, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202213 (last access: 18 January 2023), 2023.
Obase, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., Kusahara, K., Hasumi, H., and Ohgaito, R.: Responses of Basal Melting of Antarctic Ice Shelves to the Climatic Forcing of the Last Glacial Maximum and CO2 Doubling, J. Climate, 30, 3473–3497, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0908.1, 2017.
Ogura, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Hasumi, H.: Effects of sea ice dynamics on the Antarctic sea ice distribution in a coupled ocean atmosphere model, J. Geophys. Res., 109, C04025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JC002022, 2004.
O'ishi, R. and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change and terrestrial carbon storage in the Last Glacial Maximum, Clim. Past, 9, 1571–1587, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, 2013.
Paul, A., Mulitza, S., Stein, R., and Werner, M.: A global climatology of the ocean surface during the Last Glacial Maximum mapped on a regular grid (GLOMAP), Clim. Past, 17, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-805-2021, 2021.
Pico, T., Creveling, J. R., and Mitrovica, J. X.: Sea-level records from the US mid-Atlantic constrain Laurentide Ice Sheet extent during Marine Isotope Stage 3, Nat. Commun., 8, 15612, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15612, 2017.
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R. M.: Description of a hybrid ice sheet-shelf model, and application to Antarctica, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1273–1295, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1273-2012, 2012.
Pukelsheim, F.: The Three Sigma Rule, Am. Stat., 48, 88–91, https://doi.org/10.2307/2684253), 1994.
Quiquet, A., Roche, D. M., Dumas, C., Bouttes, N., and Lhardy, F.: Climate and ice sheet evolutions from the last glacial maximum to the pre-industrial period with an ice-sheet–climate coupled model, Clim. Past, 17, 2179–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, 2021.
Roche, D. M., Dumas, C., Bügelmayer, M., Charbit, S., and Ritz, C.: Adding a dynamical cryosphere to iLOVECLIM (version 1.0): coupling with the GRISLI ice-sheet model, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1377–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1377-2014, 2014.
Roe, G. H. and Lindzen, R. S.: The mutual interaction between continental-scale ice sheets and atmospheric stationary waves, J. Climate, 14, 1450–1465, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<1450:TMIBCS>2.0.CO;2, 2021.
Rougier, J., Sexton, D. M. H., Murphy, J. M., and Stainforth, D.: Analyzing the Climate Sensitivity of the HadSM3 Climate Model Using Ensembles from Different but Related Experiments, J. Climate, 22, 3540–3557, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2533.1, 2009.
Sanderson, B. M.: A Multimodel Study of Parametric Uncertainty in Predictions of Climate Response to Rising Greenhouse Gas Concentrations, J. Climate, 24, 1362–1377, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3498.1, 2011.
Schmittner, A., Urban, N. M., Shakun, J. D., Mahowald, N. M., Clark, P. U., Bartlein, P. J., Mix, A. C., and Rosellmelé, A.: Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum, Science, 334, 1385–1388, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1203513, 2011.
Sherriff-Tadano, S.: Data of Sherriff-Tadano et al. 2024 Climate of the Past, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12683128, 2024.
Sherriff-Tadano, S., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Oka, A.: Impact of mid-glacial ice sheets on deep ocean circulation and global climate, Clim. Past, 17, 95–110, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-95-2021, 2021.
Sherriff-Tadano, S., Abe-Ouchi, A., Yoshimori, M., Hotta, H., Kikuchi, M., Ohgaito, R., Kodama, T., Vadsaria, T., Oka, A, Suzuki, K.: Southern Ocean surface temperatures and cloud biases in climate models connected to the representation of glacial deep ocean circulation, J. Climate, 36, 3849–3866, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0221.1, 2023.
Shiogama, H., Watanabe, M., Yoshimori, M., Yokohata, T., Ogura, T., Annan, J. D., Hargreaves, J. C., Abe, M., Kamae, Y., O’ishi, R., Nobui, R., Emori, S., Nozawa, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Kimoto, M.: Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results, Clim. Dynam., 39, 3041–3056, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1441-x, 2012.
Smith, R. N. B.: A scheme for predicting layer clouds and their water content in a general circulation model, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 116, 435–460, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711649210, 1990.
Smith, R. S.: The FAMOUS climate model (versions XFXWB and XFHCC): description update to version XDBUA, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 269–276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-269-2012, 2012.
Smith, R. S. and Gregory, J.: The last glacial cycle: transient simulations with an AOGCM, Clim. Dynam., 38, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1283-y, 2012.
Smith, R. S., Gregory, J. M., and Osprey, A.: A description of the FAMOUS (version XDBUA) climate model and control run, Geosci. Model Dev., 1, 53–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-1-53-2008, 2008.
Smith, R. S., George, S., and Gregory, J. M.: FAMOUS version xotzt (FAMOUS-ice): a general circulation model (GCM) capable of energy- and water-conserving coupling to an ice sheet model, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5769–5787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021, 2021a.
Smith, R. S., Mathiot, P., Siahaan, A., Lee, V., Cornford, S. L., Gregory, J. M., Payne, A. J., Jenkins, A., Holland, P. R., Ridley, J. K., and Jones, C. G.: Coupling the U. K. Earth System model to dynamic models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 13, e2021MS002520, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002520, 2021b.
Tabone, I., Blasco, J., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., and Montoya, M.: The sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to glacial–interglacial oceanic forcing, Clim. Past, 14, 455–472, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-455-2018, 2018.
Tarasov, L., Dyke, A. S., Neal, R. M., and Peltier, W. R.: A data-calibrated distribution of deglacial chronologies for the North American ice complex from glaciological modeling, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 315, 30–40, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.09.010, 2012.
Tierney, J. E., Zhu, J., King, J., Malevich, S. B., Hakim, G. J., and Poulsen, C. J.: Glacial cooling and climate sensitivity revisited, Nature, 584, 569–573, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2617-x, 2020.
Tsai, V., Stewart, A., and Thompson, A.: Marine ice-sheet profiles and stability under Coulomb basal conditions, J. Glaciol., 61, 205–215, https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG14J221, 2015.
van de Wal, R. S. W., Boot, W., Smeets, C. J. P. P., Snellen, H., van den Broeke, M. R., and Oerlemans, J.: Twenty-one years of mass balance observations along the K-transect, West Greenland, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 4, 31–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-4-31-2012, 2012.
Van Liefferinge, B., Taylor, D., Tsutaki, S., Fujita, S., Gogineni, P., Kawamura, K., Matsuoka, K., Moholdt, G., Oyabu, I., Abe-Ouchi, A., Awasthi, A., Buizert, C., Gallet, J.-C., Isaksson, E., Motoyama, H., Nakazawa, F., Ohno, H., O’Neill, C., Pattyn, F., and Sugiura, K.: Surface mass balance controlled by local surface slope in inland Antarctica: Implications for ice-sheet mass balance and Oldest Ice delineation in Dome Fuji, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL094966, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094966, 2021.
Vizcaíno, M., Lipscomb, W. H., Sacks, W. J., van Angelen, J. H., Wouters, B., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Greenland Surface Mass Balance as Simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part I: Model Evaluation and 1850–2005 Results, J. Climate, 26, 7793–7812, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00615.1, 2013.
Willeit, M. and Ganopolski, A.: The importance of snow albedo for ice sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle, Clim. Past, 14, 697–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, 2018.
Williamson, D.: Exploratory ensemble designs for environmental models using k-extended latin hypercubes, Environmetrics, 26, 268–283, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/env.2335 (last access: 10 July 2024), 2015.
Williams, K. D., Senior, C. A., and Mitchell, J. F. B.: Transient Climate Change in the Hadley Centre Models: The Role of Physical Processes, J. Climate, 14, 2659–2674, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2659:TCCITH>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Willeit, M. and Ganopolski, A.: The importance of snow albedo for ice sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle, Clim. Past, 14, 697–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, 2018.
Yamagishi, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., Segawa, T., and Nishimura, T.: Re-evaluation of paleo-accumulation parameterization over Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the ice age examined with a high-resolution AGCM and a 3-D ice-sheet model, Ann. Glaciol., 42, 433–440, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756405781813032, 2005.
Ziemen, F. A., Rodehacke, C. B., and Mikolajewicz, U.: Coupled ice sheet–climate modeling under glacial and pre-industrial boundary conditions, Clim. Past, 10, 1817–1836, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1817-2014, 2014.
Zhu, J. and Poulsen, C. J.: Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate forcing and ocean dynamical feedback and their implications for estimating climate sensitivity, Clim. Past, 17, 253–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-253-2021, 2021.
Zhu, J., Otto-Bliesner, B., Brady, E., Poulsen, C. J., Shaw, J. K., Kay, J. E.: LGM paleoclimate constraints inform cloud parameterizations and equilibrium climate sensitivity in CESM2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 14, e2021MS002776, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002776, 2022.
Short summary
Ensemble simulations of the climate and ice sheets of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are performed with a new coupled climate–ice sheet model. Results show a strong sensitivity of the North American ice sheet to the albedo scheme, while the Greenland ice sheet appeared more sensitive to basal sliding schemes. Our result implies a potential connection between the North American ice sheet at the LGM and the future Greenland ice sheet through the albedo scheme.
Ensemble simulations of the climate and ice sheets of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are...
