Articles | Volume 19, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-457-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-457-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Feb 2023
Research article |
| 20 Feb 2023
| 20 Feb 2023
Drought increase since the mid-20th century in the northern South American Altiplano revealed by a 389-year precipitation record
Mariano S. Morales
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología, Universidad Continental,
Huancayo, 12000, Peru
Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias
Ambientales, CONICET, Mendoza, 5500, Argentina
Doris B. Crispín-DelaCruz
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología, Universidad Continental,
Huancayo, 12000, Peru
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Florestais, Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Recife, 52171-900, Brazil
Claudio Álvarez
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de
Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile,
Valdivia, 5110566, Chile
Escuela de Graduados, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos
Naturales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5110566, Chile
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR), Santiago,
9160000, Chile
Duncan A. Christie
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de
Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile,
Valdivia, 5110566, Chile
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR), Santiago,
9160000, Chile
Cape Horn International Center (CHIC), Punta Arenas, 6200000, Chile
M. Eugenia Ferrero
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología, Universidad Continental,
Huancayo, 12000, Peru
Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias
Ambientales, CONICET, Mendoza, 5500, Argentina
Laia Andreu-Hayles
Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, New York,
NY 10964, United States
CREAF, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallés), 08193 Barcelona,
Spain
ICREA, Pg. Lluís Companys 23, 08010 Barcelona, Spain
Ricardo Villalba
Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias
Ambientales, CONICET, Mendoza, 5500, Argentina
Anthony Guerra
Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y del Medio Ambiente, Universidad
Nacional del Centro del Perú, Huancayo, 12006, Peru
Departamento de Biologia, Instituto de Ciências Naturais, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, 37203-202, Brazil
Ginette Ticse-Otarola
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología, Universidad Continental,
Huancayo, 12000, Peru
Programa de Investigación de Ecología y Biodiversidad, Asociación ANDINUS, Huancayo, 12002, Peru
Ernesto C. Rodríguez-Ramírez
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología, Universidad Continental,
Huancayo, 12000, Peru
Rosmery LLocclla-Martínez
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología, Universidad Continental,
Huancayo, 12000, Peru
Joali Sanchez-Ferrer
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología, Universidad Continental,
Huancayo, 12000, Peru
Edilson J. Requena-Rojas
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología, Universidad Continental,
Huancayo, 12000, Peru
Related authors
M. S. Morales, J. Carilla, H. R. Grau, and R. Villalba
Clim. Past, 11, 1139–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A 601-year lake area reconstruction in NW Argentina and SW Bolivia, characterized the occurrence of annual to multi-decadal lake area fluctuations and its main oscillation modes of variability. Our reconstruction points out that the late 20th century decrease in lake area was exceptional over the period 1407–2007. A persistent negative trend in lake area is clear in the reconstruction and consistent with glacier retreat and other climate proxies from the Altiplano and the tropical Andes.
Rose Oelkers, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Arturo Pacheco Solana, Milagros Rodriguez-Caton, M. Eugenia Ferrero, Ernesto Tejedor, Alfredo F. Fuentes, Carla Maldonado, and Daniel Ruiz-Carrascal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2032, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2032, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
Alpine treelines are situated at the extreme biogeographic limits of Earth's forests and are sensitive to global environmental change. We analyzed annual ring-widths from Polylpeis pepei trees from the Andes Mountains and found reduced growth since the 1990s. Smaller rings occurred if the prior-year wet season was hotter and drier. Our findings provide a long-term context of forest growth near the Andes-Amazon and suggest regional drought may be driving this decline at a tropical treeline.
René Garreaud, Juan Pablo Boisier, Camila Álvarez-Garreton, Duncan Christie, Tomás Carrasco-Escaff, Iván Vergara, Roberto O. Chávez, Paulina Aldunce, Pablo Camus, Manuel Suazo-Álvarez, Mariano Masiokas, Gabriel Castro, Ariel Muñoz, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Rodrigo Fuster, and Lintsiee Godoy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-517, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on hyperdroughts (HDs) in central Chile, defined as years with a regional rainfall deficit exceeding 75 %. Only five HDs occurred in the last century (1924, 1968, 1998, 2019, 2021), but they caused disproportionate environmental and social impacts. In some systems, the effects were larger than expected from those considering moderate droughts and dependent on the antecedent conditions. HDs have analogs from the remote past, and they are expected to increase in the near future.
Ignacio Hermoso de Mendoza, Etienne Boucher, Fabio Gennaretti, Aliénor Lavergne, Robert Field, and Laia Andreu-Hayles
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1931–1952, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1931-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We modify the numerical model of forest growth MAIDENiso by explicitly simulating snow. This allows us to use the model in boreal environments, where snow is dominant. We tested the performance of the model before and after adding snow, using it at two Canadian sites to simulate tree-ring isotopes and comparing with local observations. We found that modelling snow improves significantly the simulation of the hydrological cycle, the plausibility of the model and the simulated isotopes.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
René D. Garreaud, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Jonathan Barichivich, Juan Pablo Boisier, Duncan Christie, Mauricio Galleguillos, Carlos LeQuesne, James McPhee, and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6307–6327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6307-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6307-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This work synthesizes an interdisciplinary research on the megadrought (MD) that has afflicted central Chile since 2010. Although 1- or 2-year droughts are not infrequent in this Mediterranean-like region, the ongoing dry period stands out because of its longevity and large extent, leading to unseen hydrological effects and vegetation impacts. Understanding the nature and biophysical impacts of the MD contributes to confronting a dry, warm future regional climate scenario in subtropical regions.
Aliénor Lavergne, Fabio Gennaretti, Camille Risi, Valérie Daux, Etienne Boucher, Martine M. Savard, Maud Naulier, Ricardo Villalba, Christian Bégin, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 13, 1515–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1515-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1515-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Tree rings are long-term recorders of past climate variations, but the origin of the climate signals imprinted is difficult to interpret. Here, using a complex model we show that the temperature signal recorded in tree rings from two species from North and South America is likely related to processes occurring at the leaf level. This result contributes to the quantitative interpretation of these proxies for their future exploitation for millennium-scale climate reconstructions.
Rob Wilson, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Rose Oelkers, Greg Wiles, Kevin Anchukaitis, and Nicole Davi
Clim. Past, 13, 1007–1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1007-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1007-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Blue intensity shows great potential for reconstructing past summer temperatures from conifer trees growing at high latitude or the treeline. However, conifer species that express a strong colour difference between the heartwood and sapwood can impart a long-term trend bias in the resultant reconstructions. Herein, we highlight this issue using eight mountain hemlock sites across the Gulf of Alaska and explore how a non-biased reconstruction of past temperature could be derived using such data.
Mariano H. Masiokas, Duncan A. Christie, Carlos Le Quesne, Pierre Pitte, Lucas Ruiz, Ricardo Villalba, Brian H. Luckman, Etienne Berthier, Samuel U. Nussbaumer, Álvaro González-Reyes, James McPhee, and Gonzalo Barcaza
The Cryosphere, 10, 927–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-927-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-927-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier Echaurren Norte (ECH, 34° S) has the longest (> 35 yrs) mass-balance record in South America. A minimal model that explains 78 % of the variance in the ECH annual record identifies precipitation as the most important forcing. A regional streamflow series allows for extending the ECH annual record back to 1909 and shows a clear cumulative ice-mass loss. Similarities with documented glacier advances and other shorter mass-balance series suggest the ECH reconstruction is regionally representative.
M. S. Morales, J. Carilla, H. R. Grau, and R. Villalba
Clim. Past, 11, 1139–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A 601-year lake area reconstruction in NW Argentina and SW Bolivia, characterized the occurrence of annual to multi-decadal lake area fluctuations and its main oscillation modes of variability. Our reconstruction points out that the late 20th century decrease in lake area was exceptional over the period 1407–2007. A persistent negative trend in lake area is clear in the reconstruction and consistent with glacier retreat and other climate proxies from the Altiplano and the tropical Andes.
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Centennial-Decadal
A past and present perspective on the European summer vapor pressure deficit
Drought reconstruction since 1796 CE based on tree-ring widths in the upper Heilongjiang (Amur) River basin in Northeast Asia and its linkage to Pacific Ocean climate variability
Climate change detection and attribution using observed and simulated tree-ring width
Integrating plant wax abundance and isotopes for paleo-vegetation and paleoclimate reconstructions: a multi-source mixing model using a Bayesian framework
Do Southern Hemisphere tree rings record past volcanic events? A case study from New Zealand
Prospects for dendroanatomy in paleoclimatology – a case study on Picea engelmannii from the Canadian Rockies
Reconstructing past hydrology of eastern Canadian boreal catchments using clastic varved sediments and hydro-climatic modelling: 160 years of fluvial inflows
A 2600-year summer climate reconstruction in central Japan by integrating tree-ring stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes
An overview on isotopic divergences – causes for instability of tree-ring isotopes and climate correlations
Proxy surrogate reconstructions for Europe and the estimation of their uncertainties
The 4.2 ka event in the central Mediterranean: new data from a Corchia speleothem (Apuan Alps, central Italy)
A 900-year New England temperature reconstruction from in situ seasonally produced branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs)
Leaf wax n-alkane distributions record ecological changes during the Younger Dryas at Trzechowskie paleolake (northern Poland) without temporal delay
Ground surface temperature reconstruction for the last 500 years obtained from permafrost temperatures observed in the SHARE STELVIO Borehole, Italian Alps
Decreasing Indian summer monsoon on the northern Indian sub-continent during the last 180 years: evidence from five tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotope chronologies
Recent climate variations in Chile: constraints from borehole temperature profiles
Spatio-temporal variability of Arctic summer temperatures over the past 2 millennia
Palaeoclimate significance of speleothems in crystalline rocks: a test case from the Late Glacial and early Holocene (Vinschgau, northern Italy)
Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era
Climate signals in a multispecies tree-ring network from central and southern Italy and reconstruction of the late summer temperatures since the early 1700s
Low-resolution Australasian palaeoclimate records of the last 2000 years
Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years
Experiments based on blue intensity for reconstructing North Pacific temperatures along the Gulf of Alaska
Spring temperature variability over Turkey since 1800 CE reconstructed from a broad network of tree-ring data
On the spatial and temporal variability of ENSO precipitation and drought teleconnection in mainland Southeast Asia
Interannual and (multi-)decadal variability in the sedimentary BIT index of Lake Challa, East Africa, over the past 2200 years: assessment of the precipitation proxy
A tree-ring perspective on temporal changes in the frequency and intensity of hydroclimatic extremes in the territory of the Czech Republic since 761 AD
Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: a tree-ring-based reconstruction
Optimal ranking regime analysis of TreeFlow dendrohydrological reconstructions
New insights into the reconstructed temperature in Portugal over the last 400 years
Expressions of climate perturbations in western Ugandan crater lake sediment records during the last 1000 years
Blue intensity and density from northern Fennoscandian tree rings, exploring the potential to improve summer temperature reconstructions with earlywood information
Reconstruction of the March–August PDSI since 1703 AD based on tree rings of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) in the Lingkong Mountain, southeast Chinese loess Plateau
Forward modelling of tree-ring width and comparison with a global network of tree-ring chronologies
Reconstruction of northeast Asia spring temperature 1784–1990
COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models (COPRA)
A 560 yr summer temperature reconstruction for the Western Mediterranean basin based on stable carbon isotopes from Pinus nigra ssp. laricio (Corsica/France)
Isotopic and lithologic variations of one precisely-dated stalagmite across the Medieval/LIA period from Heilong Cave, central China
Modelling and climatic interpretation of the length fluctuations of Glaciar Frías (north Patagonian Andes, Argentina) 1639–2009 AD
A review of the South American monsoon history as recorded in stable isotopic proxies over the past two millennia
Identification of climatic state with limited proxy data
Multi-century tree-ring based reconstruction of the Neuquén River streamflow, northern Patagonia, Argentina
Extreme pointer years in tree-ring records of Central Spain as evidence of climatic events and the eruption of the Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru, 1600 AD)
Precipitation changes in the South American Altiplano since 1300 AD reconstructed by tree-rings
Fire history in western Patagonia from paired tree-ring fire-scar and charcoal records
Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries
Viorica Nagavciuc, Simon L. L. Michel, Daniel F. Balting, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David N. Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Clim. Past, 20, 573–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The main aim of this paper is to present the summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) reconstruction dataset for the last 400 years over Europe based on δ18O records by using a random forest approach. We provide both a spatial and a temporal long-term perspective on the past summer VPD and new insights into the relationship between summer VPD and large-scale atmospheric circulation. This is the first gridded reconstruction of the European summer VPD over the past 400 years.
Yang Xu, Heli Zhang, Feng Chen, Shijie Wang, Mao Hu, Martín Hadad, and Fidel Roig
Clim. Past, 19, 2079–2092, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed the monthly mean self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index for May–July in the upper Heilongjiang (Amur) Basin since 1796. Our analysis suggests that the dry/wet variability in this basin is related to several large-scale climate stresses and atmospheric circulation patterns (El Niño–Southern Oscillation). The cause of drought is primarily a reduction in advective water vapor transport, rather than precipitation circulation processes.
Jörg Franke, Michael N. Evans, Andrew Schurer, and Gabriele C. Hegerl
Clim. Past, 18, 2583–2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2583-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2583-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Detection and attribution is a statistical method to evaluate if external factors or random variability have caused climatic changes. We use for the first time a comparison of simulated and observed tree-ring width that circumvents many limitations of previous studies relying on climate reconstructions. We attribute variability in temperature-limited trees to strong volcanic eruptions and for the first time detect a spatial pattern in the growth of moisture-sensitive trees after eruptions.
Deming Yang and Gabriel J. Bowen
Clim. Past, 18, 2181–2210, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2181-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Plant wax lipid ratios and their isotopes are used in vegetation and paleoclimate reconstructions. While studies often use either type of data, both can inform the mixing pattern of source plants. We developed a statistic model that evaluates ratios and isotopes together. Through case studies, we showed that the approach allows more detailed interpretations of vegetation and paleoclimate than traditional methods. This evolving framework can include more geochemical tracers in the future.
Philippa A. Higgins, Jonathan G. Palmer, Chris S. M. Turney, Martin S. Andersen, and Fiona Johnson
Clim. Past, 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1169-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1169-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We studied eight New Zealand tree species and identified differences in their responses to large volcanic eruptions. The response is dependent on the species and how well it can tolerate stress, but substantial within-species differences are also observed depending on site factors, including altitude and exposure. This has important implications for tree-ring temperature reconstructions because site selection and compositing methods can change the magnitude of observed volcanic cooling.
Kristina Seftigen, Marina V. Fonti, Brian Luckman, Miloš Rydval, Petter Stridbeck, Georg von Arx, Rob Wilson, and Jesper Björklund
Clim. Past, 18, 1151–1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1151-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
New proxies and improvements in existing methodologies are needed to advance paleoclimate research. This study explored dendroanatomy, the analysis of wood anatomical parameters in dated tree rings, of Engelmann spruce from the Columbia Icefield area, Canada, as a proxy of past temperatures. Our new parameters compare favorably with state of the art proxy parameters from X-ray and visible light techniques, particularly with respect to the temporal stability of the temperature signal.
Antoine Gagnon-Poiré, Pierre Brigode, Pierre Francus, David Fortin, Patrick Lajeunesse, Hugues Dorion, and Annie-Pier Trottier
Clim. Past, 17, 653–673, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-653-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A very high quality 160-year-long annually laminated (varved) sediment sequence of fluvial origin was recently discovered in an especially deep lake in Labrador. Each varve represents 1 hydrological year. A significant relation between varves' physical parameters (i.e., thickness and grain size extracted from each annual lamination) and river discharge instrumental observations provided the opportunity to develop regional discharge reconstructions beyond the instrumental period.
Takeshi Nakatsuka, Masaki Sano, Zhen Li, Chenxi Xu, Akane Tsushima, Yuki Shigeoka, Kenjiro Sho, Keiko Ohnishi, Minoru Sakamoto, Hiromasa Ozaki, Noboru Higami, Nanae Nakao, Misao Yokoyama, and Takumi Mitsutani
Clim. Past, 16, 2153–2172, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2153-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2153-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In general, it is not easy to reconstruct past climate variations over a wide band of frequencies using a single proxy. Here, we propose a new method to reconstruct past summer climate seamlessly from annual to millennial timescales by integrating tree-ring cellulose oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios. The result can be utilized to investigate various scales of climatological phenomena in the past and climate–society relationships in long human history.
Martine M. Savard and Valérie Daux
Clim. Past, 16, 1223–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1223-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climatic reconstructions based on tree-ring isotopic series convey key information on past conditions prevailing in forested regions. However, in some cases, the relations between isotopes and climate appear unstable over time, generating isotopic divergences. Former reviews have thoroughly discussed the divergence concept for tree-ring width but not for isotopes. Here we present a synopsis of the isotopic divergence problem and suggest collaborative work for improving climatic reconstructions.
Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 16, 341–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
One can use the similarity between sparse indirect observations of past climates and full fields of simulated climates to learn more about past climates. Here, we detail how one can compute uncertainty estimates for such reconstructions of past climates. This highlights the ambiguity of the reconstruction. We further show that such a reconstruction for European summer temperature agrees well with a more common approach.
Ilaria Isola, Giovanni Zanchetta, Russell N. Drysdale, Eleonora Regattieri, Monica Bini, Petra Bajo, John C. Hellstrom, Ilaria Baneschi, Piero Lionello, Jon Woodhead, and Alan Greig
Clim. Past, 15, 135–151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-135-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-135-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the natural variability in the climate system, the hydrological aspect (dry and wet conditions) is particularly important for its impact on our societies. The reconstruction of past precipitation regimes can provide a useful tool for forecasting future climate changes. We use multi-proxy time series (oxygen and carbon isotopes, trace elements) from a speleothem to investigate circulation pattern variations and seasonality effects during the dry 4.2 ka event in central Italy.
Daniel R. Miller, M. Helen Habicht, Benjamin A. Keisling, Isla S. Castañeda, and Raymond S. Bradley
Clim. Past, 14, 1653–1667, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1653-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We measured biomarker production over a year in a small inland lake in the northeastern USA. Understanding biomarkers in the modern environment helps us improve reconstructions of past climate from lake sediment records. We use these results to interpret a 900-year decadally resolved temperature record from this lake. Our record highlights multi-decadal oscillations in temperature superimposed on a long-term cooling trend, providing novel insight into climate dynamics of the region.
Bernhard Aichner, Florian Ott, Michał Słowiński, Agnieszka M. Noryśkiewicz, Achim Brauer, and Dirk Sachse
Clim. Past, 14, 1607–1624, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1607-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1607-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Abundances of plant biomarkers are compared with pollen data in a 3000-year climate archive covering the Late Glacial to Holocene transition in northern Poland. Both parameters synchronously show the rapid onset (12680–12600 yr BP) and termination
(11580–11490 yr BP) of the Younger Dryas cold interval in the study area. This demonstrates the suitability of such proxies to record pronounced changes in vegetation cover without significant delay.
Mauro Guglielmin, Marco Donatelli, Matteo Semplice, and Stefano Serra Capizzano
Clim. Past, 14, 709–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-709-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-709-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The reconstruction of ground surface temperature for the last 500 years, obtained at the deepest mountain permafrost borehole of the world (Stelvio Pass, 3000 m a.s.l., Italian Alps), is presented here. The main difference with respect to MAAT reconstructions obtained through other proxy data for all of Europe relates to post Little Ice Age (LIA) events. Indeed at this site a stronger cooling of ca 1 °C between 1940 and 1989 and even a more abrupt warming between 1990 and 2011 was detected.
Chenxi Xu, Masaki Sano, Ashok Priyadarshan Dimri, Rengaswamy Ramesh, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Feng Shi, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past, 14, 653–664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-653-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have constructed a regional tree ring cellulose oxygen isotope record using a total of five chronologies obtained from the Himalaya. Centennial changes in the regional tree ring record indicate a trend of weakened Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intensity since 1820. Decreasing ISM activity is also observed in various high-resolution ISM records from southwest China and Southeast Asia, and may be the result of reduced land–ocean thermal contrasts since 1820.
Carolyne Pickler, Edmundo Gurza Fausto, Hugo Beltrami, Jean-Claude Mareschal, Francisco Suárez, Arlette Chacon-Oecklers, Nicole Blin, Maria Teresa Cortés Calderón, Alvaro Montenegro, Rob Harris, and Andres Tassara
Clim. Past, 14, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We compiled 31 temperature–depth profiles to reconstruct the ground surface temperature of the last 500 years in northern Chile. They suggest that the region experienced a cooling from 1850 to 1980 followed by a warming of 1.9 K. The cooling could coincide with a cooling interval in 1960. The warming is greater than that of proxy reconstructions for nearby regions and model simulations. These differences could be due to differences in spatial and temporal resolution between data and models.
Johannes P. Werner, Dmitry V. Divine, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Tine Nilsen, and Pierre Francus
Clim. Past, 14, 527–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new gridded Arctic summer temperature reconstruction back to the first millennium CE. Our method respects the age uncertainties of the data, which results in a more precise reconstruction.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
Gabriella Koltai, Hai Cheng, and Christoph Spötl
Clim. Past, 14, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-369-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-369-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a multi-proxy study of flowstones in fractures of crystalline rocks with the aim of assessing the palaeoclimate significance of this new type of speleothem archive. Our results indicate a high degree of spatial heterogeneity, whereby changes in speleothem mineralogy and carbon isotope composition are likely governed by aquifer-internal processes. In contrast, the oxygen isotope composition reflects first-order climate variability.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Giovanni Leonelli, Anna Coppola, Maria Cristina Salvatore, Carlo Baroni, Giovanna Battipaglia, Tiziana Gentilesca, Francesco Ripullone, Marco Borghetti, Emanuele Conte, Roberto Tognetti, Marco Marchetti, Fabio Lombardi, Michele Brunetti, Maurizio Maugeri, Manuela Pelfini, Paolo Cherubini, Antonello Provenzale, and Valter Maggi
Clim. Past, 13, 1451–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1451-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1451-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze a tree-ring network from several sites distributed along the Italian Peninsula with the aims of detecting common climate drivers of tree growth and of reconstructing the past climate. We detect the main climatic drivers modulating tree-ring width (RW) and tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) and we reconstruct late summer temperatures since the early 1700s using a MXD chronology: this reconstruction is representative of a wide area around the Italian Peninsula.
Bronwyn C. Dixon, Jonathan J. Tyler, Andrew M. Lorrey, Ian D. Goodwin, Joëlle Gergis, and Russell N. Drysdale
Clim. Past, 13, 1403–1433, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1403-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1403-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Existing sedimentary palaeoclimate records in Australasia were assessed for suitability for examining the last 2 millennia. A small number of high-quality records were identified, and new Bayesian age models were constructed for each record. Findings suggest that Australasian record chronologies and confidence in proxy–climate relationships are the main factors limiting appropriate data for examining Common Era climate variability. Recommendations for improving data accessibility are provided.
Jennifer R. Marlon, Neil Pederson, Connor Nolan, Simon Goring, Bryan Shuman, Ann Robertson, Robert Booth, Patrick J. Bartlein, Melissa A. Berke, Michael Clifford, Edward Cook, Ann Dieffenbacher-Krall, Michael C. Dietze, Amy Hessl, J. Bradford Hubeny, Stephen T. Jackson, Jeremiah Marsicek, Jason McLachlan, Cary J. Mock, David J. P. Moore, Jonathan Nichols, Dorothy Peteet, Kevin Schaefer, Valerie Trouet, Charles Umbanhowar, John W. Williams, and Zicheng Yu
Clim. Past, 13, 1355–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
To improve our understanding of paleoclimate in the northeastern (NE) US, we compiled data from pollen, tree rings, lake levels, testate amoeba from bogs, and other proxies from the last 3000 years. The paleoclimate synthesis supports long-term cooling until the 1800s and reveals an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions around 550–750 CE. Evidence suggests the region is now becoming warmer and wetter, but more calibrated data are needed, especially to capture multidecadal variability.
Rob Wilson, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Rose Oelkers, Greg Wiles, Kevin Anchukaitis, and Nicole Davi
Clim. Past, 13, 1007–1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1007-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1007-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Blue intensity shows great potential for reconstructing past summer temperatures from conifer trees growing at high latitude or the treeline. However, conifer species that express a strong colour difference between the heartwood and sapwood can impart a long-term trend bias in the resultant reconstructions. Herein, we highlight this issue using eight mountain hemlock sites across the Gulf of Alaska and explore how a non-biased reconstruction of past temperature could be derived using such data.
Nesibe Köse, H. Tuncay Güner, Grant L. Harley, and Joel Guiot
Clim. Past, 13, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1-2017, 2017
Timo A. Räsänen, Ville Lindgren, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Brendan M. Buckley, and Matti Kummu
Clim. Past, 12, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is linked to severe droughts and floods in mainland Southeast Asia. This research provides a more accurate and uniform picture of the spatio-temporal effects of ENSO on precipitation (1980–2013) and improves our understanding of long-term (1650–2004) ENSO teleconnection and its variability over the study area. The results reveal not only recognisable spatio-temporal patterns but also a high degree of variability and non-stationarity in the effects of ENSO.
Laura K. Buckles, Dirk Verschuren, Johan W. H. Weijers, Christine Cocquyt, Maarten Blaauw, and Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté
Clim. Past, 12, 1243–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1243-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1243-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper discusses the underlying mechanisms of a method that uses specific membrane lipids present in the sediments of an African tropical lake to determine past changes in rainfall. With this method, past dry periods in the last 25 000 years can be assessed.
P. Dobrovolný, M. Rybníček, T. Kolář, R. Brázdil, M. Trnka, and U. Büntgen
Clim. Past, 11, 1453–1466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1453-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1453-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A new data set of 3194 oak (Quercus spp.) ring width samples collected across the Czech Republic and covering the past 1250 years was analysed. The temporal distribution of negative and positive TRW extremes occurring is regular with no indication of clustering. Negative TRW extremes coincided with above-average March-May and June-August temperature means and below-average precipitation totals. Positive extremes coincided with higher summer precipitation, while temperatures were mostly normal.
M. S. Morales, J. Carilla, H. R. Grau, and R. Villalba
Clim. Past, 11, 1139–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A 601-year lake area reconstruction in NW Argentina and SW Bolivia, characterized the occurrence of annual to multi-decadal lake area fluctuations and its main oscillation modes of variability. Our reconstruction points out that the late 20th century decrease in lake area was exceptional over the period 1407–2007. A persistent negative trend in lake area is clear in the reconstruction and consistent with glacier retreat and other climate proxies from the Altiplano and the tropical Andes.
S. A. Mauget
Clim. Past, 11, 1107–1125, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1107-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1107-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach to time series analysis - the ORR method - was used to evaluate reconstructed western US streamflow records during 1500-2007. This method shows an interesting pattern of alternating drought and wet periods during the late 16th and 17th centuries, a period with relatively few drought or wet periods during the 18th century, and the and the reappearance of alternating dry and wet periods during the 19th and early 20th centuries.
J. A. Santos, M. F. Carneiro, A. Correia, M. J. Alcoforado, E. Zorita, and J. J. Gómez-Navarro
Clim. Past, 11, 825–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, 2015
K. Mills, D. B. Ryves, N. J. Anderson, C. L. Bryant, and J. J. Tyler
Clim. Past, 10, 1581–1601, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1581-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1581-2014, 2014
J. A. Björklund, B. E. Gunnarson, K. Seftigen, J. Esper, and H. W. Linderholm
Clim. Past, 10, 877–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-877-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-877-2014, 2014
Q. Cai, Y. Liu, Y. Lei, G. Bao, and B. Sun
Clim. Past, 10, 509–521, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-509-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-509-2014, 2014
P. Breitenmoser, S. Brönnimann, and D. Frank
Clim. Past, 10, 437–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-437-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-437-2014, 2014
M. Ohyama, H. Yonenobu, J.-N. Choi, W.-K. Park, M. Hanzawa, and M. Suzuki
Clim. Past, 9, 261–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-261-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-261-2013, 2013
S. F. M. Breitenbach, K. Rehfeld, B. Goswami, J. U. L. Baldini, H. E. Ridley, D. J. Kennett, K. M. Prufer, V. V. Aquino, Y. Asmerom, V. J. Polyak, H. Cheng, J. Kurths, and N. Marwan
Clim. Past, 8, 1765–1779, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1765-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1765-2012, 2012
S. Szymczak, M. M. Joachimski, A. Bräuning, T. Hetzer, and J. Kuhlemann
Clim. Past, 8, 1737–1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1737-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1737-2012, 2012
Y. F. Cui, Y. J. Wang, H. Cheng, K. Zhao, and X. G. Kong
Clim. Past, 8, 1541–1550, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1541-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1541-2012, 2012
P. W. Leclercq, P. Pitte, R. H. Giesen, M. H. Masiokas, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 8, 1385–1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1385-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1385-2012, 2012
M. Vuille, S. J. Burns, B. L. Taylor, F. W. Cruz, B. W. Bird, M. B. Abbott, L. C. Kanner, H. Cheng, and V. F. Novello
Clim. Past, 8, 1309–1321, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1309-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1309-2012, 2012
J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves
Clim. Past, 8, 1141–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1141-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1141-2012, 2012
I. A. Mundo, M. H. Masiokas, R. Villalba, M. S. Morales, R. Neukom, C. Le Quesne, R. B. Urrutia, and A. Lara
Clim. Past, 8, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-815-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-815-2012, 2012
M. Génova
Clim. Past, 8, 751–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-751-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-751-2012, 2012
M. S. Morales, D. A. Christie, R. Villalba, J. Argollo, J. Pacajes, J. S. Silva, C. A. Alvarez, J. C. Llancabure, and C. C. Soliz Gamboa
Clim. Past, 8, 653–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-653-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-653-2012, 2012
A. Holz, S. Haberle, T. T. Veblen, R. De Pol-Holz, and J. Southon
Clim. Past, 8, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-451-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-451-2012, 2012
F. C. Ljungqvist, P. J. Krusic, G. Brattström, and H. S. Sundqvist
Clim. Past, 8, 227–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-227-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-227-2012, 2012
Cited articles
Adler, R. F., Sapiano, M., Huffman, G. J., Wang, J.-J., Gu, G., Bolvin, D.,
Chiu, L., Schneider, U., Becker, A., Nelkin, E., Xie, P., Ferraro, R., and
Shin, D.-B.: The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly
Analysis (New Version 2.3) and a Review of 2017 Global Precipitation,
Atmosphere, 9, 138, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9040138, 2018.
Apaéstegui, J., Cruz, F. C., Vuille, M., Fohlmeistere, J., Espinoza, J.
C., Sifeddine, A., Strikis, N., Guyot, J. L, Ventura, R., Cheng, H., and
Edwards, R. L.: Precipitation changes over the eastern Bolivian Andes
inferred from speleothem (δ18O) records for the last 1400 years,
Earth. Planet. Sc. Lett., 494, 124–134, 2018.
Argollo, M., Solíz, C., and Villalba, R.: Potencialidad
dendrocronológica de Polylepis tarapacana en los Andes centrales de
Bolivia, Ecol. Bol., 39, 5–24, 2004.
Bennett, M., New, M., Marino, J., and Sillero-Zubiri, C.: Climate complexity
in the Central Andes: A study case on empirically based local variations in
the Dry Puna, J. Arid Environ., 128, 40–49, 2016.
Binford, M. W., Kolata, A. L., Brenner, M., Janusek, J. W., Seddon, M. T.,
Abbott, M. B., and Jason, H.: Climate variation and the rise and fall of an
Andean civilization, Quaternary Res., 47, 235–248, 1997.
Bird, W. B., Abbott, M. B., Vuille M., Rodbell, D. T., Stansella, N. D., and
Rosenmeier, M. F.: A 2,300-year-long annually resolved record of the South
American summer monsoon from the Peruvian Andes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
108, 8583–8588, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1003719108, 2011.
Bradley, R. S., Vuille, M., Hardy, D., and Thompson, L. G.: Low latitudeice cores record Pacific sea surface temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1174, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016546, 2003.
Bradley, R. S., Vuille, M., Diaz, H. F., and Vergara, W.: Threats towater supplies in the tropical Andes, Science, 312, 1755–1756, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128087, 2006.
Briffa, K. R.: Interpreting high-resolution proxy climate data. The example of dendroclimatology, in: Analysis of climate variability, applications of statistical techniques, edited by: von Storch, H. and Navarra, A., Springer Verlag, Berlin, 77–94, ISBN 978-3-662-03167-4, 1995.
Buytaert, W. and De Bièvre, B.: Water for cities: The impact of climate
change and demographic growth in the tropical Andes, Water Resour. Res. 48,
1–13, 2012.
Christie, D. A., Lara, A., Barichivich, J., Villalba, R., Morales, M. S.,
and Cuq, E.: El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal in the world's
high-elevation tree-ring chronologies from the Altiplano, Central Andes,
Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl. Palaeoecol., 281, 309–319, 2009.
Cook, E. R., Krusic, P. J., Peters, K., and Melvin, T.: Program Signal Free
(v45), RCS Signal Free tree–ring standardization program. Tree–Ring
Laboratory of Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory,
https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/tree-ring-laboratory/resources/software (last access: 15 March 2022), 2017.
Cooley, W. W. and Lohnes, P. R.: Multivariate data analysis, John Wiley &
Son, New York, https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.19730150413, 1971.
Cowling, A., Hall, P., and Phillips, M. J.: Bootstrap confidence regions for
the intensity of a Poisson point process. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 91,
1516–1524, 1996.
Crispín-DelaCruz, D., Morales, M. S, Andreu-Hayles, L., Christie, D. A.,
Guerra, A., and Requena-Rojas, E. J.: High ENSO sensitivity in tree rings from a
northern population of Polylepis tarapacana in the Peruvian Andes,
Dendrochronologia, 71, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2021.125902, 2021.
Díaz, L. B. and Vera, C. S.: South American precipitation changes
simulated by PMIP3/ CMIP5 models during the Little Ice Age and the recent
global warming period, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 2638–2650,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5449, 2018.
Draper, N. R. and Smith, H. (Eds.): Applied Regression Analysis, John Wiley
& Son, New York, ISBN 9781118625682, 1981.
Falvey, M. and Garreaud, R.: Moisture variability over the South American Altiplano during the SALLJEX observing season, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D22105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006152, 2005.
Francou, B., Vuille, M., Wagnon, P., Mendoza, J., and Sicart, J. E.:
Tropical climate change recorded by glacier in the central Andes during the
last decades of the twentieth century: Chacaltaya, Bolivia,
16∘ S, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4154,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002959, 2003.
Fritts, H. C. (Ed.): Tree rings and climate, Academic Presss, London, ISBN 9780323145282, 1976.
Garcia, M., Raes, D., and Jacobsen, S. E.: Reference evapotranspiration and
crop coefficient of quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd) in the Bolivian
Altiplano, Agr. Water Manage., 60, 119–134, 2003.
Garcia, M., Raes, D., Jacobsen, S. E., and Michel, T.: Agroclimatic
constraints for rainfed agriculture in the Bolivian Altiplano, J. Arid.
Environ., 71, 109–121, 2007.
García-Plazaola, J. I, Rojas, R., Christie, D. A., and Coopman, R. E.:
Photosynthetic responses of trees in high-elevation forests: comparing
evergreen species along an elevation gradient in the Central Andes, AoB
Plants 7, 1–13, 2015.
Garreaud, R. D.: Multiscale analysis of the summertime precipitation over the central Andes, Mon. Weather Rev. 127, 901–921, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<0901:MAOTSP>2.0.CO;2, 1999.
Garreaud, R. and Aceituno, P.: Interannual rainfall variability overthe South American Altiplano, J. Climate, 14, 2779–2789, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2779:IRVOTS>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Garreaud, R., Vuille, M., and Clement, C.: The climate of the Altiplano: Observed current conditions and mechanisms of past changes, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl. Palaeoecol., 194, 5–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0031-0182(03)00269-4, 2003.
Garreaud, R. D., Vuille, M., Compagnucci, R., and Marengo, J.: Present day
South American climate, Paleoclim. Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 281, 180–195,
2009.
Gordon, G.: Verification of dendroclimatic reconstructions, in: Climate from
Tree Rings, edited by: Hughes, M. K., Kelly, P. M., Pilcher, J. R., and
LaMarche Jr., V. C., Cambridge University Press, 58–61, 1982.
Holmes R. L.: Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and
measurement, Tree-Ring Bulletin, 43, 69–78, 1983.
Huerta, A. and Lavado-Casimiro, W.: Trends and variability of precipitation
extremes in the Peruvian Altiplano for the period 1971–2013, Int. J.
Climatol., 41, 513–528, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6635, 2021.
Hunziker, S., Brönnimann, S., Calle, J., Moreno, I., Andrade, M., Ticona, L., Huerta, A., and Lavado-Casimiro, W.: Effects of undetected data quality issues on climatological analyses, Clim. Past, 14, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1-2018, 2018.
Imfeld, N., Sedlmeier, K., Gubler, S., Correa Marrou, K., Davila, C. P.,
Huerta, A., Lavado-Casimiro, W., Rohrer, M., Scherrer, S. C., and Schwierz,
C.: A combined view on precipitation and temperature climatology and trends
in the southern Andes of Peru, Int. J. Climatol. 41, 679–698,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6645, 2021.
IPCC: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan,
C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M.,
Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield,
T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou B. (Eds.): Climate Change 2021: The
Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-92-9169-158-6, 2021.
Jenkins, G. M. and Watts, D. G.: Spectral analysis and its applications,
Holden-Day, San Francisco, ISBN 10 0816244642, 1968.
Jomelli, V., Favier, V., Rabatel, A., Brunstein, D., Hoffmann, G., and
Francou, B.: Fluctuations of glaciers in the tropical Andes over the last
millennium and palaeoclimatic implications: A review, Palaeogeogr.
Palaeocl., 281, 269–282, 2009.
Jones, P. D. and Hulme, M.: Calculating regional climatic time series for
temperature and precipitation: methods and illustrations, Int. J. Climatol.,
16, 361–377, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199604)16:4<361::AID-JOC53>3.0.CO;2-F, 1996.
Jones, P. D., Briffa, K. R., Barnett, T. P., and Tett, S. F. B.: High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperaturas, The Holocene, 4,
455–471, https://doi.org/10.1191/095968398667194956, 1998.
Kistler, R., Kalnay, E., Collins, W., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J.,
Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Kanamitsu, M., Kousky, V., Van Der Dool, H.,
Jenne, R., and Fiorino, M.: The NCEP-NCAR 50 year Reanalysis: Monthly Means
CD-ROM and documentation, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 82, 247–267, 2001.
Lavado-Casimiro, W. S., Labat, D., Ronchail, J., Espinoza, J. C., and Guyot,
J. L.: Trends in rainfall and temperature in the Peruvian Amazon-Andes basin
over the last 40years (1965–2007), Hydrol. Process., 27, 2944–2957,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9418, 2013.
Lenters, J. D. and Cook, K. H.: On the origin of the Bolivian Highand related circulation features of the South American climate, J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 656–677, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<0409:SPVOSA>2.0.CO;2, 1997.
Li, J., Xie, S. P., Cook, E. R., Morales, M. S., Christie, D. A., Johnson, N. C., Chen, F., D’Arrigo, R., Fowler, A. M., Gou, X., and Fang, K.: El Niño modulations over thepast seven centuries, Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 822–826, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1936, 2013.
Lima L., Christie D. A., Calogero Santoro M., and Latorre C.: Coupled socio
environmental changes triggered indigenous Aymara depopulation of the
semiarid Andes of Tarapacá-Chile during the late 19th–20th centuries,
PLoS ONE, 11, e0160580, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0160580, 2016.
Marengo, J. A., Liebmann, B., Grimm, A. M., Misra, V., Dias, P. L. S.,
Cavalcanti, I. F. A., Carvalho, L. M. V., Berbery, E. H., Ambrizzi, T.,
Vera, C. S., Saulo, A. C., Nogues-Paegle, J., Zipser, E., Seth, A., and
Alves, L. M.: Recent developments on the South American monsoon system, Int.
J. Climatol., 32, 1–21, 2012.
Meko, D. M.: Dendroclimatic reconstruction with time varying subsets of tree
indices, J. Climate, 10, 687–696, 1997.
Melvin, T. and Briffa K.: A “signal-free” approach to dendroclimatic
standardization, Dendrochronologia, 26, 71–86, 2008.
Melvin, T. M.: Historical growth rates and changing climatic sensitivity of
boreal conifers, Ph.D. thesis, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United
Kingdom, https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/pubs/thesis/2004-melvin/melvin-2004-thesis.pdf (last access: 8 February 2023), 2004.
Michaelsen, J.: Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models, J.
Clim. Appl. Meteorol., 26, 1589–1600, 1987.
Minvielle, M. and Garreaud, R.: Projecting rainfall changes over the South
American Altiplano, J. Climate, 24, 4577–4583, 2011.
Mitchell Jr., J. M., Dzerdseevskii, B., Flohn, H., Hofmeyr, W. L., Lamb, H.
H., Rao, N., and Wallen, C. C.: Climatic change,World Meteorological
Organization, Geneva, https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=865 (last access: 8 February 2023), 1966.
Morales, M. S., Villalba, R., Grau, R., and Paolini, L.: Rainfall-controlled
tree growth in high-elevation subtropical treelines, Ecology, 85,
3080–3089, https://doi.org/10.1890/04-0139, 2004.
Morales, M. S., Christie, D. A., Villalba, R., Argollo, J., Pacajes, J., Silva, J. S., Alvarez, C. A., Llancabure, J. C., and Soliz Gamboa, C. C.: Precipitation changes in the South American Altiplano since 1300 AD reconstructed by tree-rings, Clim. Past, 8, 653–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-653-2012, 2012.
Morales, M. S., Carilla, J., Grau, H. R., and Villalba, R.: Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: a tree-ring-based reconstruction, Clim. Past, 11, 1139–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015, 2015.
Morales, M. S., Christie, D. A., Neukom R, Rojas F, and Villalba R.:
Variabilidad hidroclimática en el Sur del Altiplano: Pasado, presente y
futuro, in: Serie Conservación de la Naturaleza 24: La Puna Argentina:
Naturaleza y Sociedad, edited by: Grau, H. R., Babot, M. J., Izquierdo A. E.,
and Grau, A., Fundación Miguel Lillo, Tucumán, Argentina, 75–91, ISBN 978-950-668-032-9, 2018.
Morales, M. S., Cook, E. R., Barichivich, J., Christie, D. A., Villalba, R.,
LeQuesne, C., Srur, A. M., Eugenia Ferrero, M., González-Reyes, Á.,
Couvreux, F., Matskovsky, V., Aravena, J. C., Lara, A., Mundo, I. A., Rojas,
F., Prieto, M. R., Smerdon, J. E., Bianchi, L. O., Masiokas, M. H.,
Urrutia-Jalabert, R., Rodriguez-Catón, M., Muñoz, A. A.,
Rojas-Badilla, M., Alvarez, C., Lopez, L., Luckman, B. H., Lister, D.,
Harris, I., Jones, P. D., Park Williams, A., Velazquez, G., Aliste, D.,
Aguilera-Betti, I., Marcotti, E., Flores, F., Muñoz, T., Cuq, E., and
Boninsegna, J. A.: Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an
increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century, P. Natl.
Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 16816–16823,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2002411117, 2020.
Morales, M. S., De La Cruz, D. B. C., Álvarez, C., Duncan, A. C., Ferrero, E., Andreu-Hayles, L., Villalba , R., Guerra, A., Ticse-Otarola, G., Rodríguez-Ramírez, E., LLocclla Martínez, R., Sanchez-Ferrer, J., and Requena-Rojas, E. J.: Drought increased since the mid-20th century in the northern South American Altiplano revealed by a 389-year precipitation record, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6467673, 2023.
Mudelsee, M.: Climate Time Series Analysis: Classical Statistical and
Bootstrap Methods, Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences Library, Springer,
Vol. 51, ISBN 978-3-319-04450-7, 2014.
Mudelsee, M., Borngen, M., Tetzlaff, G., and Grunewald, U.: No upward trends
in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe, Nature, 425,
166–169, 2003.
Mujica, M. I., Latorre, C., Maldonado, A., González-Silvestre, L.,
Pinto, R., de Pol-Holz, R., and Santoro, C. M.: Late Quaternary climate
change, relict populations and present-day refugia in the northern Atacama
Desert: A case study from Quebrada La Higuera (18∘ S), J.
Biogeogr., 42, 76–88, 2015.
Neukom R., Rohrer M., Calanca P., Salzmann N., Huggel C., Acuña D.,
Christie D. A., and Morales, M. S.: Facing unprecedented drying of the
Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000–2100,
Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 084017, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084017, 2015.
Nielsen, A. E.: Asentamientos, conflicto y cambio social en el Altiplano de Lípez (Potosí, Bolivia), Revista Española de Antropología Americana, 32, 179–205, e-ISSN 1988-2718, 2002.
Núñez, L., Grosjean, M., and Cartagena, I.: Human occupations and
climate change in the Puna de Atacama, Chile, Science, 298, 821–824, 2002.
Ramírez, E., Francou, B., Ribstein, P., Descloıtres, M., Guérin,
R., Mendoza, J., Gallaire, R., Pouyaud, B., and Jordan, E.: Small glaciers
disappearing in the tropical Andes, A case study in Bolivia: Glacier
Chacaltaya (16∘ S), J. Glaciol., 47, 187–194, 2001.
Ramos-Calzado, P., Gómez-Camacho, J., Pérez-Bernal, F., and Pitta-Lopez, M. F.: A novel approach to precipitation series completion in climatological
datasets: application to Andalusia, Int. J. Climatol, 2029, 2011–2029,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1657, 2008.
Rodríguez-Catón, M., Andreu-Hayles, L., Morales, M. S., Daux, V.,
Christie, D. A., Coopman, R. E., Alvarez, C., Rao, M. P., Aliste, D.,
Flores, F., and Villalba, R.: Different climate sensitivity for radial
growth, but uniform for tree-ring stable isotopes along an aridity gradient
in Polylepis tarapacana, the world's highest elevation tree-species, Tree
Physiol, 41, 1353–1371, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpab021, 2021.
Schittek, K., Kock, S. T., Lücke, A., Hense, J., Ohlendorf, C., Kulemeyer, J. J., Lupo, L. C., and Schäbitz, F.: A high-altitude peatland record of environmental changes in the NW Argentine Andes (24∘ S) over the last 2100 years, Clim. Past, 12, 1165–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1165-2016, 2016.
Schulman, E.: Dendroclimatic changes in semiarid America, Tucson, University
of Arizona Press, https://www.cabdirect.org/cabdirect/abstract/19560601984 (last access: 8 February 2023), 1956.
Segura, H., Espinoza, J. C., Junquas, C., Lebel, T., Vuille, M., and
Garreaud, R.: Recent changes in the precipitation-driving processes over the
southern tropical Andes/western Amazon, Clim. Dynam., 54, 2613–2631,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05132-6, 2020.
Seth, A., Thibeault, J., Garcia, M., and Valdivia, C.: Making sense of
Twenty-First-Century climate change in the Altiplano: observed trends and
CMIP3 projections, Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr., 100, 835e847, https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2010.500193, 2010.
Singh, D., Seager, R., Cook, B. I., Cane, M., Mingfang, T., Cook, E., and
Davis, M.: Climate and the Global Famine of 1876–78, J. Climate, 31,
9445–9467, 2018.
Solíz, C., Villalba, R., Argollo, J., Morales, M. S., Christie, D. A.,
Moya, J., and Pacajes, J.: Spatio-temporal variations in Polylepis
tarapacana radial growth across the Bolivian Altiplano during the 20th
century, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl. Palaeoecol, 281, 296–330, 2009.
Štěpánek, P.: AnClim – software for time series analysis, Dept.
of Geography, Fac. of Natural Sciences, Munich,
http://www.climahom.eu/AnClim.html (last access: 10 March 2022), 2008.
Steiger, N. J., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, E. R., and Cook, B. I.: A
reconstruction of global hydroclimate and dynamical variables over the
Common Era, Sci. Data, 5, 180086, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.86, 2018.
Stokes, M. A. and Smiley, T. L.: An introduction to tree-ring dating,
University of Chicago Press, Chicago, ISBN 0-8165-1680-4, 1968.
Tandeter, E.: Crisis in Upper Peru, 1800–1805, HAHR-Hisp. Am. Hist. R., 71,
35–71, 1991.
Thompson, L. G., Mosley-Thompson, E., Brecher, H., Davis, M.,León, B., Les, D., Lin, P. N., Mashiotta, T., and Mountain, K.: Abrupt tropical climate change: Past and present, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 103, 10536–10543, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0603900103, 2006.
Torrence, C. and Webster, P.: Interdecadal changes in the ENSO Monsoon system, J. Climate, 12, 2679–2690, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2679:ICITEM>2.0.CO;2, 1999.
Urrutia, R. and Vuille, M.: Climate change projections for the tropical
Andes using a regional climate model: Temperature and precipitation
simulations for the end of the 21st century, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D02108,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011021, 2009.
Vautard, R.: Patterns in Time: SSA and MSSA, in: Analysis of climate
variability. Applications of statistical techniques, edited by: von Storch,
H. and Navarra, A., Springer, Berlin, 259–287, ISBN 978-3-662-03167-4, 1995.
Vautard, R. and Ghil, M.: Singular spectrum analysis in nonlinear dynamics,
with applications to paleoclimatic time series, Physica D, 35, 395–424,
1989.
Vera, C., Higgins, W., Amador, J., Ambrizzi, T., Garreaud, R., Gochis, D.,
Gutzler, D., Lettenmaier, D., Marengo, J., Mechoso, C. R., Nogues-Paegle,
J., Silva Dias, P. L., and Zhang, C.: Toward a unified view of the American
Monsoon Systems, J. Climate, 19, 4977–5000, 2006.
Vuille, M.: Atmospheric circulation over the Bolivian Altiplano during dry and wet periods and extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation, Int. J. Climatol., 19, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19991130)19:14<1579::AID-JOC441>3.0.CO;2-N, 1999.
Vuille, M. and Keimig, F.: Interannual variability of summertimeconvective cloudiness and precipitation in the central Andes derivedfrom ISCCP-B3 data, J. Climate, 17, 3334–3348, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3334:IVOSCC>2.0.CO;2, 2004.
Vuille, M., Bradley R. S., and Keimig F.: Interannual climate variabilityin the central Andes and its relation to tropical Pacific and Atlantic forcing, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 12, 447–460, 2000.
Vuille, M., Bradley, R. S., Werner, M., and Keimig, F.: 20th century climate
change in the tropical Andes: Observations and model results, Clim. Change,
59, 75–99, 2003.
Vuille, M., Francou, B., Wagnon, P., Juen, I., Kaser, G., Mark, B., and
Bradley, R.: Climate change and tropical Andean glaciers: Past, present and
future, Earth-Sci Rev., 89, 79–96, 2008.
Vuille, M., Burns, S. J., Taylor, B. L., Cruz, F. W., Bird, B. W., Abbott, M. B., Kanner, L. C., Cheng, H., and Novello, V. F.: A review of the South American monsoon history as recorded in stable isotopic proxies over the past two millennia, Clim. Past, 8, 1309–1321, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1309-2012, 2012.
Vuille, M., Franquist, E., Garreaud, R., Lavado-Casimiro, W. S., and
Cáceres, B.: Impact of the global warming hiatus on Andean temperature,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 3745–3757, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023126, 2015.
Weisberg, S.: Applied Linear Regression, John Wiley & Son, New York, https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.4710300746, 1985.
Wigley, T. M. L., Briffa, K. R., and Jones, P. D.: On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology, J. Clim. Appl. Meterol., 23, 201–213, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<0201:OTAVOC>2.0.CO;2, 1984.
Short summary
In this study, we develop the first tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction for the northern South American Altiplano back to 1625 CE. We established that the occurrence rate of extreme dry events together with a shift in mean dry conditions for the late 20th–beginning of the 21st century is unprecedented in the past 389 years, consistent with other paleoclimatic records. Our reconstruction provides valuable information about El Niño–Southern Oscillation influences on local precipitation.
In this study, we develop the first tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction for the...
