Articles | Volume 18, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 12 Apr 2022
| 12 Apr 2022
The 1600 CE Huaynaputina eruption as a possible trigger for persistent cooling in the North Atlantic region
Sam White
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of History, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, 08034, Spain
Davide Zanchettin
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics,
University Ca' Foscari of Venice, Mestre, 30172, Italy
Heli Huhtamaa
Institute of History, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern,
3012 Bern, Switzerland
Dagomar Degroot
Department of History, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 3700, USA
Markus Stoffel
Climatic Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene (C-CIA),
Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, 1205, Switzerland
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, 1205, Switzerland
Department F.-A. Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences,
University of Geneva, Geneva, 1205, Switzerland
Christophe Corona
Climatic Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene (C-CIA),
Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, 1205, Switzerland
CNRS, Geolab, University of Clermont Auvergne, Clermont-Ferrand,
63000, France
Related authors
Chantal Camenisch, Fernando Jaume-Santero, Sam White, Qing Pei, Ralf Hand, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 18, 2449–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2449-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel approach to assimilate climate information contained in chronicles and annals from the 15th century to generate climate reconstructions of the Burgundian Low Countries, taking into account uncertainties associated with the descriptions of narrative sources. Our study aims to be a first step towards a more quantitative use of available information contained in historical texts, showing how Bayesian inference can help the climate community with this endeavor.
Sam White
Clim. Past, 15, 1809–1824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1809-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1809-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Early colonial documentary records offer valuable climatic and historical information, but their reliability and suitability for climate reconstruction and environmental history remain uncertain. This study systematically compares drought information from records of colonial expeditions in North America 1510–1610 CE with high-resolution PDSI reconstructions of the North American Drought Atlas. It finds substantial agreement, and it suggests potential uses for such records and reconstructions.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Thomas Arsouze, Mario Acosta, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Miguel Castrillo, Eric Ferrer, Amanda Frigola, Daria Kuznetsova, Eneko Martin-Martinez, Pablo Ortega, and Sergi Palomas
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-119, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We present the high-resolution model version of the EC-Earth global climate model to contribute to HighResMIP. The combined model resolution is about 10-15 km in both the ocean and atmosphere, which makes it one of the finest ever used to complete historical and scenario simulations. This model is compared with two lower-resolution versions, with a 100-km and a 25-km grid. The three models are compared with observations to study the improvements thanks to the increased in the resolution.
Jérôme Lopez-Saez, Christophe Corona, Lenka Slamova, Matthias Huss, Valérie Daux, Kurt Nicolussi, and Markus Stoffel
Clim. Past, 20, 1251–1267, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1251-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in the European Alps have been retreating since the 1850s. Monitoring glacier mass balance is vital for understanding global changes, but only a few glaciers have long-term data. This study aims to reconstruct the mass balance of the Silvretta Glacier in the Swiss Alps using stable isotopes and tree ring proxies. Results indicate increased glacier mass until the 19th century, followed by a sharp decline after the Little Ice Age with accelerated losses due to anthropogenic warming.
Hera Guðlaugsdóttir, Yannick Peings, Davide Zanchettin, and Guðrún Magnúsdóttir
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1302, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we use an Earth System Model to simulate a long-lasting volcanic eruption at 65° N to assess its climate effects. We show a Polar Vortex strengthening in winter 1 and a weakening in winters 2–3 due to surface cooling that further causes an increase in sudden stratospheric warmings. This can cause severe cold weather events in the northern hemisphere. Our motivation is to understand how such eruptions impact the climate system for improving decadal climate predictability.
Richard Warren, Niklaus Emanuel Bartlome, Noémie Wellinger, Jörg Franke, Ralf Hand, Stefan Brönnimann, and Heli Huhtamaa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-743, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the ClimeApp web application. The app provides quick access to the ModE-RA global climate reanalysis. Users can calculate and plot anomalies, composites, correlations, regressions and annual cycles across three different datasets and four climate variables. By re-examining the 1815 Tambora eruption, we demonstrate how combining results from different datasets and sources can help us investigate the historical palaeoclimate and integrate it into human history.
Matteo Mastropierro, Daniele Peano, and Davide Zanchettin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-823, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-823, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We address how different ESMs represent vegetation productivity, in terms of carbon fluxes, within the Amazon basin. By statistically assessing the role of climatological and model specific factors that influence vegetation, we showed that surface energy fluxes and the implementation of Phosphorous limitation resulted to be the main drivers of model uncertainties in a future scenario. Reducing these uncertainties allows to increase the reliability of tropical land carbon and climate projections
Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Bo Christiansen, Jan Esper, Heli Huhtamaa, Lotta Leijonhufvud, Christian Pfister, Andrea Seim, Martin Karl Skoglund, and Peter Thejll
Clim. Past, 19, 2463–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2463-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2463-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the climate signal in long harvest series from across Europe between the 16th and 18th centuries. The climate–harvest yield relationship is found to be relatively weak but regionally consistent and similar in strength and sign to modern climate–harvest yield relationships. The strongest climate–harvest yield patterns are a significant summer soil moisture signal in Sweden, a winter temperature and precipitation signal in Switzerland, and spring temperature signals in Spain.
Nicolas Steeb, Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva, Alexandre Badoux, Christian Rickli, Andrea Mini, Markus Stoffel, and Dieter Rickenmann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 487–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Various models have been used in science and practice to estimate how much large wood (LW) can be supplied to rivers. This contribution reviews the existing models proposed in the last 35 years and compares two of the most recent spatially explicit models by applying them to 40 catchments in Switzerland. Differences in modelling results are discussed, and results are compared to available observations coming from a unique database.
Guillian Van Achter, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
The Cryosphere, 16, 4745–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the changes in ocean–ice interactions in the Totten Glacier area between the last decades (1995–2014) and the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under warmer climate conditions. By the end of the 21st century, the sea ice is strongly reduced, and the ocean circulation close to the coast is accelerated. Our research highlights the importance of including representations of fast ice to simulate realistic ice shelf melt rate increase in East Antarctica under warming conditions.
Chantal Camenisch, Fernando Jaume-Santero, Sam White, Qing Pei, Ralf Hand, Christian Rohr, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 18, 2449–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2449-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel approach to assimilate climate information contained in chronicles and annals from the 15th century to generate climate reconstructions of the Burgundian Low Countries, taking into account uncertainties associated with the descriptions of narrative sources. Our study aims to be a first step towards a more quantitative use of available information contained in historical texts, showing how Bayesian inference can help the climate community with this endeavor.
Heli Huhtamaa, Markus Stoffel, and Christophe Corona
Clim. Past, 18, 2077–2092, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2077-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tree-ring data and written sources from northern Fennoscandia reveal that large 17th century eruptions had considerable climatic, agricultural, and socioeconomic impacts far away from the eruption locations. Yet, micro-regional investigation shows that the human consequences were commonly indirect, as various factors, like agro-ecosystems, resource availability, institutions, and personal networks, dictated how the volcanic cold pulses and related crop failures materialized on a societal level.
Helen Mackay, Gill Plunkett, Britta J. L. Jensen, Thomas J. Aubry, Christophe Corona, Woon Mi Kim, Matthew Toohey, Michael Sigl, Markus Stoffel, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Christoph Raible, Matthew S. M. Bolton, Joseph G. Manning, Timothy P. Newfield, Nicola Di Cosmo, Francis Ludlow, Conor Kostick, Zhen Yang, Lisa Coyle McClung, Matthew Amesbury, Alistair Monteath, Paul D. M. Hughes, Pete G. Langdon, Dan Charman, Robert Booth, Kimberley L. Davies, Antony Blundell, and Graeme T. Swindles
Clim. Past, 18, 1475–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant Northern Hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal response is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption even when it is precisely dated.
Markus Stoffel, Christophe Corona, Francis Ludlow, Michael Sigl, Heli Huhtamaa, Emmanuel Garnier, Samuli Helama, Sébastien Guillet, Arlene Crampsie, Katrin Kleemann, Chantal Camenisch, Joseph McConnell, and Chaochao Gao
Clim. Past, 18, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-17th century saw several volcanic eruptions, deteriorating climate, political instability, and famine in Europe, China, and Japan. We analyze impacts of the eruptions on climate but also study their socio-political context. We show that an unambiguous distinction of volcanic cooling or wetting from natural climate variability is not straightforward. It also shows that political instability, poor harvest, and famine cannot only be attributed to volcanic climatic impacts.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Davide Zanchettin, Claudia Timmreck, Myriam Khodri, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Manabu Abe, Slimane Bekki, Jason Cole, Shih-Wei Fang, Wuhu Feng, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Nicolas Lebas, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Landon Rieger, Alan Robock, Sara Rubinetti, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Helen Weierbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2265–2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides metadata and first analyses of the volc-pinatubo-full experiment of CMIP6-VolMIP. Results from six Earth system models reveal significant differences in radiative flux anomalies that trace back to different implementations of volcanic forcing. Surface responses are in contrast overall consistent across models, reflecting the large spread due to internal variability. A second phase of VolMIP shall consider both aspects toward improved protocol for volc-pinatubo-full.
Luuk Dorren, Frédéric Berger, Franck Bourrier, Nicolas Eckert, Charalampos Saroglou, Massimiliano Schwarz, Markus Stoffel, Daniel Trappmann, Hans-Heini Utelli, and Christine Moos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-32, 2022
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
In the daily practice of rockfall hazard analysis, trajectory simulations are used to delimit runout zones. To do so, the expert needs to separate "realistic" from "unrealistic" simulated groups of trajectories. This is often done on the basis of reach probability values. This paper provides a basis for choosing a reach probability threshold value for delimiting the rockfall runout zone, based on recordings and simulations of recent rockfall events at 18 active rockfall sites in Europe.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Louis-Philippe Caron, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Oliver Gutjahr, Marie-Pierre Moine, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Malcolm J. Roberts, Retish Senan, Laurent Terray, Etienne Tourigny, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 269–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-269-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models do not fully reproduce observations: they show differences (biases) in regional temperature, precipitation, or cloud cover. Reducing model biases is important to increase our confidence in their ability to reproduce present and future climate changes. Model realism is set by its resolution: the finer it is, the more physical processes and interactions it can resolve. We here show that increasing resolution of up to ~ 25 km can help reduce model biases but not remove them entirely.
Davide Zanchettin, Sara Bruni, Fabio Raicich, Piero Lionello, Fanny Adloff, Alexey Androsov, Fabrizio Antonioli, Vincenzo Artale, Eugenio Carminati, Christian Ferrarin, Vera Fofonova, Robert J. Nicholls, Sara Rubinetti, Angelo Rubino, Gianmaria Sannino, Giorgio Spada, Rémi Thiéblemont, Michael Tsimplis, Georg Umgiesser, Stefano Vignudelli, Guy Wöppelmann, and Susanna Zerbini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2643–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Relative sea level in Venice rose by about 2.5 mm/year in the past 150 years due to the combined effect of subsidence and mean sea-level rise. We estimate the likely range of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 due to climate changes to be between about 10 and 110 cm, with an improbable yet possible high-end scenario of about 170 cm. Projections of subsidence are not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they can increase the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level rise.
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
Piero Lionello, Robert J. Nicholls, Georg Umgiesser, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2633–2641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Venice is an iconic place, and a paradigm of huge historical and cultural value is at risk. The threat posed by floods has dramatically increased in recent decades and is expected to continue to grow – and even accelerate – through this century. There is a need to better understand the future evolution of the relative sea level and its extremes and to develop adaptive planning strategies appropriate for present uncertainty, which might not be substantially reduced in the near future.
Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Davide Zanchettin, Stefan Brönnimann, Elin Lundstad, and Rob Wilson
Clim. Past, 17, 1455–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The 1809 eruption is one of the most recent unidentified volcanic eruptions with a global climate impact. We demonstrate that climate model simulations of the 1809 eruption show generally good agreement with many large-scale temperature reconstructions and early instrumental records for a range of radiative forcing estimates. In terms of explaining the spatially heterogeneous and temporally delayed Northern Hemisphere cooling suggested by tree-ring networks, the investigation remains open.
Guoxiong Zheng, Martin Mergili, Adam Emmer, Simon Allen, Anming Bao, Hao Guo, and Markus Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3159–3180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reports on a recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event that occurred on 26 June 2020 in Tibet, China. We find that this event was triggered by a debris landslide from a steep lateral moraine. As the relationship between the long-term evolution of the lake and its likely landslide trigger revealed by a time series of satellite images, this case provides strong evidence that it can be plausibly linked to anthropogenic climate change.
David J. Nash, George C. D. Adamson, Linden Ashcroft, Martin Bauch, Chantal Camenisch, Dagomar Degroot, Joelle Gergis, Adrian Jusopović, Thomas Labbé, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Sharon D. Nicholson, Qing Pei, María del Rosario Prieto, Ursula Rack, Facundo Rojas, and Sam White
Clim. Past, 17, 1273–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1273-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Qualitative evidence contained within historical sources provides an important record of climate variability for periods prior to the onset of systematic meteorological data collection. Before such evidence can be used for climate reconstructions, it needs to be converted to a quantitative format. A common approach is the generation of ordinal-scale climate indices. This review, written by members of the PAGES CRIAS working group, provides a global synthesis of the use of the index approach.
Peter M. Abbott, Gill Plunkett, Christophe Corona, Nathan J. Chellman, Joseph R. McConnell, John R. Pilcher, Markus Stoffel, and Michael Sigl
Clim. Past, 17, 565–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-565-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-565-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic eruptions are a key source of climatic variability, and greater understanding of their past influence will increase the accuracy of future projections. We use volcanic ash from a 1477 CE Icelandic eruption in a Greenlandic ice core as a temporal fix point to constrain the timing of two eruptions in the 1450s CE and their climatic impact. Despite being the most explosive Icelandic eruption in the last 1200 years, the 1477 CE event had a limited impact on Northern Hemisphere climate.
Margot Clyne, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael J. Mills, Myriam Khodri, William Ball, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Nicolas Lebas, Graham Mann, Lauren Marshall, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Fiona Tummon, Davide Zanchettin, Yunqian Zhu, and Owen B. Toon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3317–3343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study finds how and why five state-of-the-art global climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosols differ when simulating the aftermath of large volcanic injections as part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP). We identify and explain the consequences of significant disparities in the underlying physics and chemistry currently in some of the models, which are problems likely not unique to the models participating in this study.
Andreas Kääb, Tazio Strozzi, Tobias Bolch, Rafael Caduff, Håkon Trefall, Markus Stoffel, and Alexander Kokarev
The Cryosphere, 15, 927–949, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-927-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-927-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a map of rock glacier motion over parts of the northern Tien Shan and time series of surface speed for six of them over almost 70 years.
This is by far the most detailed investigation of this kind available for central Asia.
We detect a 2- to 4-fold increase in rock glacier motion between the 1950s and present, which we attribute to atmospheric warming.
Relative to the shrinking glaciers in the region, this implies increased importance of periglacial sediment transport.
Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents and evaluates a set of retrospective decadal predictions with the EC-Earth3 climate model. These experiments successfully predict past changes in surface air temperature but show poor predictive capacity in the subpolar North Atlantic, a well-known source region of decadal climate variability. The poor predictive capacity is linked to an initial shock affecting the Atlantic Ocean circulation, ultimately due to a suboptimal representation of the Labrador Sea density.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, and François Massonnet
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4773–4787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4773-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4773-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models need to capture sea ice complexity to represent it realistically. Here we assess how distributing sea ice in discrete thickness categories impacts how sea ice variability is simulated in the NEMO3.6–LIM3 model. Simulations and satellite observations are compared by using k-means clustering of sea ice concentration in winter and summer between 1979 and 2014 at both poles. Little improvements in the modeled sea ice lead us to recommend using the standard number of five categories.
Michael Fehlmann, Mario Rohrer, Annakaisa von Lerber, and Markus Stoffel
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 4683–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4683-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4683-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Thies disdrometer is used to monitor precipitation intensity and its phase and thus may provide valuable information for the management of meteorological and hydrological risks. In this study, we characterize biases of this instrument using common reference instruments at a pre-alpine study site in Switzerland. We find a systematic underestimation of liquid precipitation amounts and suggest possible reasons for and corrections to this bias and relate these findings to other study sites.
Maria Pyrina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-50, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Sam White
Clim. Past, 15, 1809–1824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1809-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1809-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Early colonial documentary records offer valuable climatic and historical information, but their reliability and suitability for climate reconstruction and environmental history remain uncertain. This study systematically compares drought information from records of colonial expeditions in North America 1510–1610 CE with high-resolution PDSI reconstructions of the North American Drought Atlas. It finds substantial agreement, and it suggests potential uses for such records and reconstructions.
François Massonnet, Antoine Barthélemy, Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, Martin Vancoppenolle, Clément Rousset, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3745–3758, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3745-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3745-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice thickness varies considerably on spatial scales of several meters. However, contemporary climate models cannot resolve such scales yet. This is why sea ice models used in climate models include an ice thickness distribution (ITD) to account for this unresolved variability. Here, we explore with the ocean–sea ice model NEMO3.6-LIM3 the sensitivity of simulated mean Arctic and Antarctic sea ice states to the way the ITD is discretized.
Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Marina V. Fonti, Matthias Saurer, Sébastien Guillet, Christophe Corona, Patrick Fonti, Vladimir S. Myglan, Alexander V. Kirdyanov, Oksana V. Naumova, Dmitriy V. Ovchinnikov, Alexander V. Shashkin, Irina P. Panyushkina, Ulf Büntgen, Malcolm K. Hughes, Eugene A. Vaganov, Rolf T. W. Siegwolf, and Markus Stoffel
Clim. Past, 15, 685–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-685-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-685-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present a unique dataset of multiple tree-ring and stable isotope parameters, representing temperature-sensitive Siberian ecotones, to assess climatic impacts after six large stratospheric volcanic eruptions at 535, 540, 1257, 1640, 1815, and 1991 CE. Besides the well-documented effects of temperature derived from tree-ring width and latewood density, stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in tree-ring cellulose provide information about moisture and sunshine duration changes after the events.
Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva, Alexandre Badoux, Dieter Rickenmann, Martin Böckli, Salome Schläfli, Nicolas Steeb, Markus Stoffel, and Christian Rickli
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 1115–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1115-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1115-2018, 2018
Martin Beniston, Daniel Farinotti, Markus Stoffel, Liss M. Andreassen, Erika Coppola, Nicolas Eckert, Adriano Fantini, Florie Giacona, Christian Hauck, Matthias Huss, Hendrik Huwald, Michael Lehning, Juan-Ignacio López-Moreno, Jan Magnusson, Christoph Marty, Enrique Morán-Tejéda, Samuel Morin, Mohamed Naaim, Antonello Provenzale, Antoine Rabatel, Delphine Six, Johann Stötter, Ulrich Strasser, Silvia Terzago, and Christian Vincent
The Cryosphere, 12, 759–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper makes a rather exhaustive overview of current knowledge of past, current, and future aspects of cryospheric issues in continental Europe and makes a number of reflections of areas of uncertainty requiring more attention in both scientific and policy terms. The review paper is completed by a bibliography containing 350 recent references that will certainly be of value to scholars engaged in the fields of glacier, snow, and permafrost research.
Lauren Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Ken S. Carslaw, Graham W. Mann, Michael Sigl, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Davide Zanchettin, William T. Ball, Slimane Bekki, James S. A. Brooke, Sandip Dhomse, Colin Johnson, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, James O. Pope, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use four global aerosol models to compare the simulated sulfate deposition from the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption to ice core records. Inter-model volcanic sulfate deposition differs considerably. Volcanic sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets is used to estimate the atmospheric sulfate burden and subsequently radiative forcing of historic eruptions. Our results suggest that deriving such relationships from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Christine Moos, Luuk Dorren, and Markus Stoffel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 291–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-291-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-291-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this study was to quantify the effect of forests on the occurrence frequency and intensity of rockfalls. This was done based on 3-D rockfall simulations for different forest and non-forest scenarios on a virtual slope. The rockfall frequency and intensity below forested slopes is significantly reduced. Statistical models provide information on how specific forest and terrain parameters influence this reduction and they allow prediction and quantification of the forest effect.
Chantal Camenisch, Kathrin M. Keller, Melanie Salvisberg, Benjamin Amann, Martin Bauch, Sandro Blumer, Rudolf Brázdil, Stefan Brönnimann, Ulf Büntgen, Bruce M. S. Campbell, Laura Fernández-Donado, Dominik Fleitmann, Rüdiger Glaser, Fidel González-Rouco, Martin Grosjean, Richard C. Hoffmann, Heli Huhtamaa, Fortunat Joos, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Flavio Lehner, Jürg Luterbacher, Nicolas Maughan, Raphael Neukom, Theresa Novy, Kathleen Pribyl, Christoph C. Raible, Dirk Riemann, Maximilian Schuh, Philip Slavin, Johannes P. Werner, and Oliver Wetter
Clim. Past, 12, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Throughout the last millennium, several cold periods occurred which affected humanity. Here, we investigate an exceptionally cold decade during the 15th century. The cold conditions challenged the food production and led to increasing food prices and a famine in parts of Europe. In contrast to periods such as the “Year Without Summer” after the eruption of Tambora, these extreme climatic conditions seem to have occurred by chance and in relation to the internal variability of the climate system.
Davide Zanchettin, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Anja Schmidt, Edwin P. Gerber, Gabriele Hegerl, Alan Robock, Francesco S. R. Pausata, William T. Ball, Susanne E. Bauer, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Michael Mills, Marion Marchand, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Eugene Rozanov, Angelo Rubino, Andrea Stenke, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating volcanically-forced climate variability is a challenging task for climate models. The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) – an endorsed contribution to CMIP6 – defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability of results across different climate models. This paper illustrates the design of VolMIP's experiments and describes the aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.
M. Jochner, J. M. Turowski, A. Badoux, M. Stoffel, and C. Rickli
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 311–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-311-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-311-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The export of coarse particulate organic matter (CPOM) from mountain catchments seems to be strongly linked to rising discharge, but the mechanism leading to this is unclear. We show that log jams in a steep headwater stream are an effective barrier for CPOM export. Exceptional discharge events play a dual role: First, they destroy existing jams, releasing stored material. Second, they intensify channel--hillslope coupling, thereby recruiting logs to the channel, around which new jams can form.
H. Frey, H. Machguth, M. Huss, C. Huggel, S. Bajracharya, T. Bolch, A. Kulkarni, A. Linsbauer, N. Salzmann, and M. Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 8, 2313–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Existing methods (area–volume relations, a slope-dependent volume estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models) are used to estimate the ice reserves stored in Himalayan–Karakoram glaciers. Resulting volumes range from 2955–4737km³. Results from the ice-thickness distribution models agree well with local measurements; volume estimates from area-related relations exceed the estimates from the other approaches. Evidence on the effect of the selected method on results is provided.
O. Bothe, J. H. Jungclaus, and D. Zanchettin
Clim. Past, 9, 2471–2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013, 2013
O. Bothe, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Zanchettin, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1089–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, 2013
J. Segschneider, A. Beitsch, C. Timmreck, V. Brovkin, T. Ilyina, J. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, K. D. Six, and D. Zanchettin
Biogeosciences, 10, 669–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Historical Records | Timescale: Decadal-Seasonal
Process, spatial pattern and impacts of 1743 Extreme heat: From the perspective of historical documents
Weather and climate and their human impacts and responses during the Thirty Years' War in central Europe
Documents, Reanalysis, and Global Circulation Models: A New Method for Reconstructing Historical Climate Focusing on Present-day Inland Tanzania, 1856–1890
A global inventory of quantitative documentary evidence related to climate since the 15th century
Analysis of early Japanese meteorological data and historical weather documents to reconstruct the winter climate between the 1840s and the early 1850s
Climate indices in historical climate reconstructions: a global state of the art
Could phenological records from Chinese poems of the Tang and Song dynasties (618–1279 CE) be reliable evidence of past climate changes?
Central Europe, 1531–1540 CE: The driest summer decade of the past five centuries?
“Everything is scorched by the burning sun”: missionary perspectives and experiences of 19th- and early 20th-century droughts in semi-arid central Namibia
Patterns in data of extreme droughts/floods and harvest grades derived from historical documents in eastern China during 801–1910
The extreme drought of 1842 in Europe as described by both documentary data and instrumental measurements
The climate in south-east Moravia, Czech Republic, 1803–1830, based on daily weather records kept by the Reverend Šimon Hausner
The climate of Granada (southern Spain) during the first third of the 18th century (1706–1730) according to documentary sources
Extracting weather information from a plantation document
Variation of extreme drought and flood in North China revealed by document-based seasonal precipitation reconstruction for the past 300 years
300 years of hydrological records and societal responses to droughts and floods on the Pacific coast of Central America
Multi-proxy reconstructions of May–September precipitation field in China over the past 500 years
Climatic effects and impacts of the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in the Czech Lands
Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century based on documentary evidence
Observations of a stratospheric aerosol veil from a tropical volcanic eruption in December 1808: is this the Unknown ∼1809 eruption?
Documentary-derived chronologies of rainfall variability in Antigua, Lesser Antilles, 1770–1890
An underestimated record breaking event – why summer 1540 was likely warmer than 2003
Snow and weather climatic control on snow avalanche occurrence fluctuations over 50 yr in the French Alps
Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701–1850 based on documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations
Spring-summer temperatures reconstructed for northern Switzerland and southwestern Germany from winter rye harvest dates, 1454–1970
Le Tao, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Fangyu Tian
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-3, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-3, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Our study collected 63 historical documents about 1743 extreme heat from 3 kinds of historical materials. By methods of text analysis such as keywords extraction, grading and classification, the extreme heat in 1743 was recovered. The advances of this study are that: details of the process of heat wave development over time are given, spatially severe regions are identified, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the impacts of extreme heat are discerned.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Christian Pfister, Katrin Kleemann, Kateřina Chromá, Péter Szabó, and Piotr Olinski
Clim. Past, 19, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Thirty Years' War (from 1618 to 1648 CE), an armed military conflict in Europe, brought extensive devastation to Europe. The paper analyses annual and seasonal temperature, precipitation, and drought patterns, as well as severe weather extremes, based particularly on documentary data, during this event in central Europe to demonstrate their broad impacts on human society and human responses in coincidence with weather and climate during this period of hardship.
Philip Gooding, Melissa J. Lazenby, Michael R. Frogley, Cecile Dai, and Wenqi Su
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-992, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-992, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article integrates data from historical documents and global climate reconstructions to make a time-series of seasonal rainfall variability in nineteenth-century Tanzania. It both makes a scientifically grounded interpretation of qualitative descriptions written in documents and acknowledges the limits of current climate reconstructions over Africa. The result is a trans-disciplinary methodological breakthrough that incorporates history into the practice of climate reconstruction.
Angela-Maria Burgdorf
Clim. Past, 18, 1407–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1407-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1407-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This comprehensive inventory of quantitative documentary evidence related to climate extending back to 1400 CE promotes the first ever global perspective on documentary climate records. It lays the foundation for incorporating documentary evidence from archives of societies into global-scale climate reconstructions, complementing (early) instrumental measurements and natural climate proxies. Documentary records are particularly relevant in seasons and regions poorly covered by natural proxies.
Junpei Hirano, Takehiko Mikami, and Masumi Zaiki
Clim. Past, 18, 327–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-327-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-327-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The East Asian winter monsoon causes orographic snowfall over the windward side of the Japanese islands (facing the Sea of Japan and the northwesterly winter monsoon flow) and negative temperature anomalies around Japan. In this study, we reconstruct the outbreak of the winter monsoon around Japan for the winter from the 1840s to the early 1850s by using daily weather information recorded in old Japanese diaries and early daily instrumental temperature data.
David J. Nash, George C. D. Adamson, Linden Ashcroft, Martin Bauch, Chantal Camenisch, Dagomar Degroot, Joelle Gergis, Adrian Jusopović, Thomas Labbé, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Sharon D. Nicholson, Qing Pei, María del Rosario Prieto, Ursula Rack, Facundo Rojas, and Sam White
Clim. Past, 17, 1273–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1273-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Qualitative evidence contained within historical sources provides an important record of climate variability for periods prior to the onset of systematic meteorological data collection. Before such evidence can be used for climate reconstructions, it needs to be converted to a quantitative format. A common approach is the generation of ordinal-scale climate indices. This review, written by members of the PAGES CRIAS working group, provides a global synthesis of the use of the index approach.
Yachen Liu, Xiuqi Fang, Junhu Dai, Huanjiong Wang, and Zexing Tao
Clim. Past, 17, 929–950, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-929-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
There are controversies about whether poetry can be used as one of the evidence sources for past climate changes. We tried to discuss the reliability and validity of phenological records from poems of the Tang and Song dynasties (618–1279 CE) by analyzing their certainties and uncertainties. A standardized processing method for phenological records from poems is introduced. We hope that this study can provide a reference for the extraction and application of phenological records from poems.
Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Martin Bauch, Chantal Camenisch, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Piotr Oliński, and Ladislava Řezníčková
Clim. Past, 16, 2125–2151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies related to historical droughts in the Czech Lands showed that the summers of 1531–1540 could represent the driest summer decade of the past 500 years. To confirm this hypothesis, documentary data from central Europe were collected and presented for individual summers and complemented by maps of precipitation and drought distribution to document corresponding weather patterns and their various impacts. The main droughts occurred in 1532, 1534–1536, 1538, and particularly in 1540.
Stefan Grab and Tizian Zumthurm
Clim. Past, 16, 679–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-679-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-679-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Here we describe the unique nature of droughts over semi-arid central Namibia (southern Africa) between 1850 and 1920. We establish temporal shifts in the influence and impact that historical droughts had on society and the environment during this period. The paper demonstrates and argues that human experience and the associated reporting of drought events depend strongly on social, environmental, spatial, and societal developmental situations and perspectives.
Zhixin Hao, Maowei Wu, Jingyun Zheng, Jiewei Chen, Xuezhen Zhang, and Shiwei Luo
Clim. Past, 16, 101–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-101-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-101-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Using reconstructed extreme drought/flood chronologies and grain harvest series derived from historical documents, it is found that the frequency of reporting of extreme droughts in any subregion of eastern China was significantly associated with lower reconstructed harvests during 801–1910. The association was weak during the warm epoch of 920–1300 but strong during the cold epoch of 1310–1880, which indicates that a warm climate might weaken the impact of extreme drought on poor harvests.
Rudolf Brázdil, Gaston R. Demarée, Andrea Kiss, Petr Dobrovolný, Kateřina Chromá, Miroslav Trnka, Lukáš Dolák, Ladislava Řezníčková, Pavel Zahradníček, Danuta Limanowka, and Sylvie Jourdain
Clim. Past, 15, 1861–1884, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1861-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1861-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents analysis of the 1842 drought in Europe (except the Mediterranean) based on documentary data and instrumental records. First the meteorological background of this drought is shown (seasonal distribution of precipitation, annual variation of temperature, precipitation and drought indices, synoptic reasons) and effects of drought on water management, agriculture, and in society are described in detail with particular attention to human responses.
Rudolf Brázdil, Hubert Valášek, Kateřina Chromá, Lukáš Dolák, Ladislava Řezníčková, Monika Bělínová, Adam Valík, and Pavel Zahradníček
Clim. Past, 15, 1205–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1205-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1205-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper analyses a weather diary of the Reverend Šimon Hausner from Buchlovice in south-east Moravia, Czech Republic, in the 1803–1831 period. From daily weather records, series of numbers of precipitation days, cloudiness, strong winds, fogs, and thunderstorms were created. These records were further used to interpret weighted temperature and precipitation indices. Records of Šimon Hausner represent an important contribution to the study of climate fluctuations on the central European scale.
Fernando S. Rodrigo
Clim. Past, 15, 647–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-647-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-647-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The climate of Granada (southern Spain) during the first third of the 18th century is reconstructed. Results suggest that climatic conditions were similar to those of the first decades of the 20th century, when the global warming signal was of less importance than today. In addition, the paper presents the instrumental data taken in Granada in 1729, probably the first instrumental meteorological data recorded in Spain. Some extreme events, such as the cold wave of winter 1729, are studied.
Gregory Burris, Jane Washburn, Omar Lasheen, Sophia Dorribo, James B. Elsner, and Ronald E. Doel
Clim. Past, 15, 477–492, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-477-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-477-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Historical documents are full of untapped data on past climate conditions. Our paper sets out a method for extracting this information into a database that is easily utilized by climate scientists. We apply this method to a document from Shirley Plantation covering the years 1816–1842. We then provide two case studies to demonstrate the validity and utility of the new method and database.
Jingyun Zheng, Yingzhuo Yu, Xuezhen Zhang, and Zhixin Hao
Clim. Past, 14, 1135–1145, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1135-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1135-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the decadal variations of extreme droughts and floods in North China using a 17-site seasonal precipitation reconstruction from a unique historical archive. Then, the link of extreme droughts and floods with ENSO episodes and large volcanic eruptions was discussed. This study helps us understand whether the recent extreme events observed by instruments exceed the natural variability at a regional scale, which may be useful for adaptation to extremes and disasters in the future.
Alvaro Guevara-Murua, Caroline A. Williams, Erica J. Hendy, and Pablo Imbach
Clim. Past, 14, 175–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-175-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-175-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study reconstructs a new semi-quantitative rainfall index for the Pacific coast of Central America using documentary sources for the period 1640 to 1945. In addition, we explore the various mechanisms and processes that may explain inter-annual and inter-decadal rainfall variability over the Pacific coast of Central America.
Feng Shi, Sen Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, Hugues Goosse, and Qiuzhen Yin
Clim. Past, 13, 1919–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed the multi-proxy precipitation field for China over the past 500 years, which includes three leading modes (a monopole, a dipole, and a triple) of precipitation variability. The dipole mode may be controlled by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability. Such reconstruction is an essential source of information to document the climate variability over decadal to centennial timescales and can be used to assess the ability of climate models to simulate past climate change.
Rudolf Brázdil, Ladislava Řezníčková, Hubert Valášek, Lukáš Dolák, and Oldřich Kotyza
Clim. Past, 12, 1361–1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1361-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1361-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with climatic and human impacts of the strong Tambora (Indonesia) volcanic eruption in April 1815 over the Czech Lands territory based on analysis of documentary data and instrumental records. While climatic effects were related particularly to summers 1815 and 1816 (1816 is known as "a Year Without Summer"), quite important were societal impacts represented after bad harvest by steep increase in prices and shortages of food.
C. Camenisch
Clim. Past, 11, 1049–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1049-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1049-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper applies the methods of historical climatology to present a climate reconstruction for the area of the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century. The results are based on documentary evidence. Approximately 3000 written records derived from about 100 different sources were examined and converted into seasonal seven-degree indices of temperature and precipitation.
A. Guevara-Murua, C. A. Williams, E. J. Hendy, A. C. Rust, and K. V. Cashman
Clim. Past, 10, 1707–1722, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1707-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1707-2014, 2014
A. J. Berland, S. E. Metcalfe, and G. H. Endfield
Clim. Past, 9, 1331–1343, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1331-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1331-2013, 2013
O. Wetter and C. Pfister
Clim. Past, 9, 41–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-41-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-41-2013, 2013
H. Castebrunet, N. Eckert, and G. Giraud
Clim. Past, 8, 855–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-855-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-855-2012, 2012
F. S. Rodrigo, J. J. Gómez-Navarro, and J. P. Montávez Gómez
Clim. Past, 8, 117–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-117-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-117-2012, 2012
O. Wetter and C. Pfister
Clim. Past, 7, 1307–1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1307-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1307-2011, 2011
Cited articles
Adams, N. K., de Silva, S. L., Self, S., Salas, G., Schubring, S., Permenter, J. L., and Arbesman, K.: The physical volcanology of the 1600 eruption of Huaynaputina, southern Peru, Bull. Volcanol., 62,
493–518, https://doi.org/10.1007/s004450000105, 2001.
Akiander, M.: Utdrag ur ryska annaler, Suomi – Tidskrift i
fosterländska ämnen, 8, 1–284, Helsingfors: Simelii arfvingar,
1849.
Alheit, J. and Hagen, E.: Long-Term Climate Forcing of European Herring and
Sardine Populations, Fish. Oceanogr., 6, 130–139,
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2419.1997.00035.x, 1997.
Anchukaitis, K. J., Wilson, R., Briffa, K., Büntgen, U., Cook, E. R.,
D'Arrigo, R. D., Davi, N., Esper, J., Frank, D., Gunnarson, B., Hegerl, G., Helama, S., Klesse, S., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H., Myglan, V., Osborn, T. J., Peng, Z., Rydval, M., Schneider, L., Schurer, A., Wiles, G., and Zorita, E.: Last millennium
Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II: spatially
resolved reconstructions, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 163, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.02.020, 2017.
Betin, V. V. and Preobrazhinski, J. V.: Kolebanija ledovtosti Baltijskogo
morja i datskiz prilivov, Trudy Gosudarstvennogo Okeanograficheskogo
Instituta, 37, 3–13, 1959.
Bittner, M., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C., and Sienz, F.: Using a large ensemble of simulations to assess the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamical
response to tropical volcanic eruptions and its uncertainty, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 43, 9324–9332,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070587, 2016.
Born, A. and Stocker, T. F.: Two stable equilibria of the Atlantic subpolar
gyre, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 44, 246–264, 2014.
Born, A., Stocker, T., Raible, C., and Levermann, A.: Is the Atlantic
subpolar gyre bistable in comprehensive coupled climate models?,
Clim. Dynam., 40, 2993–3007, 2013.
Briffa, K. R., Jones, P. D., Schweingruber, F. H., and Osborn, T. J.:
Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on Northern Hemisphere Summer Temperature
over the Past 600 Years, Nature, 393, 450–55, 1998.
Brönnimann, S., Pfister, C., and White, S.: Archives of Nature and
Archives of Societies, in: The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History, edited
by: White, S., Pfister, C., and Mauelshagen, F., Palgrave Macmillan UK,
London, 27–36, https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-43020-5_3, 2018.
Cabedo-Sanz, P., Belt, S. T., Jennings, A. E., Andrews, J. T., and
Geirsdóttir, Á.: Variability in drift ice export from the Arctic
Ocean to the North Icelandic Shelf over the last 8000 years: A multi-proxy
evaluation, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 146, 99–115, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.06.012, 2016.
Chen, D. and Hellström, C.: The influence of the North Atlantic
Oscillation on the regional temperature variability in Sweden: spatial and
temporal variations, Tellus A, 51, 505–516, 1999.
Christiansen, B.: Volcanic eruptions, large-scale modes in the
Northern Hemisphere, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, J.
Climate, 21, 910–922, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1657.1, 2008.
Clark, P. (Ed.): The European Crisis of the 1590s: Essays in Comparative
History, Allen and Unwin, London, ISBN 9780049400740, 1985.
Cook, E. R., Briffa, K. R., and Jones, P. D.: Spatial regression methods in
dendroclimatology: a review and comparison of two techniques, Int. J.
Climatol., 14, 379–402, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370140404, 1994.
Cook, E. R., Meko, D., Stahle, D., and Cleaveland, M.: Drought
Reconstructions for the Continental United States, J. Climate, 12,
1145–62, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1145:DRFTCU>2.0.CO;2, 1999.
Coupe, J. and Robock, A.: The influence of stratospheric soot and sulfate
aerosols on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime atmospheric circulation, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD034513, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034513, 2021.
Cowtan, K. and Way, R.: Coverage Bias in the HadCRUT4 Temperature Series
and Its Impact on Recent Temperature Trends, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 1935–1944, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2297, 2014.
D'Arrigo, R., Wilson, R., and Jacoby, G.: On the long-term context for late
twentieth century warming, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111,
D03103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006352, 2006.
D'Arrigo, R., Jacoby, G., Buckley, B., Sakulich, J., Frank, D., Wilson, R.,
Curtis, A., and Anchukaitis, K.: Tree growth and inferred temperature
variability at the North American Arctic treeline, Glob. Planet. Change, 65,
71–82, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.10.011, 2009.
De Silva, S., Alzueta, J., and Salas, G.: The socioeconomic consequences of
the A.D. 1600 eruption of Huaynaputina, southern Peru, in: Special Paper
345: Volcanic Hazards and Disasters in Human Antiquity, vol. 345, Geological
Society of America, 15–24, https://doi.org/10.1130/0-8137-2345-0.15, 2000.
De Silva, S. L. and Zielinski, G. A.: Global Influence of the AD 1600
Eruption of Huaynaputina, Peru, Nature, 393, 455–458, 1998.
Degroot, D.: Exploring the North in a Changing Climate: The Little Ice Age
and the Journals of Henry Hudson, 1607–1611, Journal of Northern Studies, 9,
69–91, 2015a.
Degroot, D.: Testing the Limits of Climate History: The Quest for a
Northeast Passage during the Little Ice Age, 1594–1597, J.
Interdiscipl. Hist., 45, 459–84, https://doi.org/10.1162/JINH_a_00755, 2015b.
Degroot, D.: The Frigid Golden Age: Climate Change, the Little Ice Age, and
the Dutch Republic, 1560–1720, Cambridge University Press, New York, ISBN 9781108410410, 2018.
Degroot, D.: War of the Whales: Climate Change, Weather and Arctic Conflict
in the Early Seventeenth Century, Env. Hist., 26, 549–577, https://doi.org/10.3197/096734019X15463432086801, 2020.
De Silva, S. L. and Zielinski, G. A.: Global Influence of the AD 1600 Eruption of Huaynaputina, Peru, Nature, 393, 455–458, 1998.
Dobrovolný, P., Moberg, A., Brázdil, R., and Pfister, C.: Monthly,
Seasonal and Annual Temperature Reconstructions for Central Europe Derived
from Documentary Evidence and Instrumental Records since AD 1500, Climatic
Change, 101, 69–107, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9724-x, 2010.
Dunning, C.: Russia's First Civil War: The Time of Troubles and the Founding
of the Romanov Dynasty, Penn State University Press, College Station, ISBN 9780271020747, 2001.
Eriksson, C., Omstedt, A., Overland, J. E., Percival, D., and Mofjeld, H.:
Characterizing the European sub-Arctic winter climate since 1500 using ice,
temperature, and atmospheric circulation time series, J. Climate,
20, 5316–5334, 2007.
Gagné, M., Kirchmeier-Young, M., Gillett, N., and Fyfe, J.: Arctic sea
ice response to the eruptions of Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 8071–8078, 2017.
Gennaretti, F., Arseneault, D., Nicault, A., Perreault, L., and Bégin,
Y.: Volcano-Induced Regime Shifts in Millennial Tree-Ring Chronologies from
Northeastern North America, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 10077–10082, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1324220111, 2014.
Global Volcanism Project: https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=354030, last access: 30 June 2021.
Guillet, S., Corona, C., Stoffel, M., Khodri, M., Lavigne, F., Ortega, P.,
Eckert, N., Sielenou, P. D., Daux, V., Churakova (Sidorova), O. V., Davi,
N., Edouard, J.-L., Zhang, Y., Luckman, B. H., Myglan, V. S., Guiot, J.,
Beniston, M., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Oppenheimer, C.: Climate response to
the Samalas volcanic eruption in 1257 revealed by proxy records, Nat.
Geosci., 10, 123–128, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2875, 2017.
Guillet, S., Corona, C., Ludlow, F., Oppenheimer, C., and Stoffel, M.:
Climatic and societal impacts of a “forgotten” cluster of volcanic
eruptions in 1108–1110 CE, Sci. Rep., 10, 6715, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-63339-3, 2020.
Hall, J.: Maliseet Cultivation and Climatic Resilience on the Welastekw/St.
John River During the Little Ice Age, Acadiensis, 44, 3–25, 2015.
Hari, P., Aakala, T., Hilasvuori, E., Häkkinen, R., Korhola, A.,
Korpela, M., Linkosalo, T., Mäkinen, H., Nikinmaa, E., Nöjd, P.,
Seppä, H., Sulkava, M., Terhivuo, J., Tuomenvirta, H., Weckström,
J., and Hollmén, J.: Reliability of temperature signal in various
climate indicators from northern Europe, PLOS ONE, 12, e0180042, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180042, 2017.
Helama, S., Stoffel, M., Hall, R. J., Jones, P. D., Arppe, L., Matskovsky, V. V., Timonen, M., Nojd, P., Mielikainen, K., and Oinonen, M.: Recurrent transitions to Little Ice Age-like climatic regimes over the Holocene, Clim. Dynam., 56, 3817–3833, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05669-0, 2021.
Hernández, A., Martin-Puertas, C., Moffa-Sánchez, P.,
Moreno-Chamarro, E., Ortega, P., Blockley, S., Cobb, K., Comas-Bru, L.,
Giralt, S., Goossee, H., Luterbacher, J., Martrat, B., Muschel, R., Parnell,
A., Pla-Rabes, S., Sjolte, J., Scaife, A., Swingedouw, D., and Xu, G.: Modes of Climate Variability: Synthesis and Review of Proxy-Based Reconstructions
through the Holocene, Earth-Sci. Rev., 209, 103286,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103286, 2020.
Holm, P., Ludlow, F., Scherer, C., Travis, C., Allaire, B., Brito, C.,
Hayes, P., Matthews, J., Rankin, K., Breen, R., Legg, R., Lougheed, K., and
Nicholls, J.: The North Atlantic Fish Revolution (ca. AD 1500), Quaternary
Res., 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1017/qua.2018.153, 2019.
Huhtamaa, H.: Combining written and tree-ring evidence to trace past food
crises: A case study from Finland, in: Famines during the “Little Ice Age”
(1300–1800): Socionatural entanglements in premodern societies, edited by:
Collet, D. and Schuh, M., Springer, Cham, 43–66, ISBN 9783319543413, 2018.
Huhtamaa, H. and Helama, S.: Distant impact: tropical volcanic eruptions and
climate-driven agricultural crises in seventeenth-century Ostrobothnia,
Finland, J. Hist. Geogr., 57, 40–51, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhg.2017.05.011, 2017.
Huhtamaa, H., Helama, S., Leijonhufvud, L., and Charpentier Ljungqvist, F.:
Combining the archives of nature and society: tree rings and tithes, Past
Global Changes Magazine, 28, 20–21, https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.28.2.50, 2020.
Huhtamaa, H. M., Helama, S., Holopainen, J., Rethorn, C., and Rohr, C.: Crop
Yield Responses to Temperature Fluctuations in 19th Century Finland:
Provincial Variation in Relation to Climate and Tree Rings, Boreal
Environ. Res., 20, 707–723, https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.70535, 2015.
Jara, L. A., Thouret, J.-C., and Dávila, J.: The AD 1600 Eruption of
Huaynaputina as Described in Early Spanish Chronicles, B. Soc. Geol. Perú, 90, 121–32, 2000.
Jevrejeva, S.: Severity of winter seasons in the northern Baltic Sea between
1529 and 1990: reconstruction and analysis, Clim. Res., 17,
55–62, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr017055, 2001.
Jevrejeva, S.: Association Between Ice Conditions in the Baltic Sea along
the Estonian Coast and the North Atlantic Oscillation, Hydrol. Res., 33,
319–330, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2002.0011, 2002.
Killick, R. and Eckley, I.: Changepoint: An R package for changepoint
analysis, J. Stat. Softw., 58, 1–19, 2014.
Killick, R., Fearnhead, P., and Eckley, I.: Optimal detection of changepoints
with a linear computational cost, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 107, 1590–1598, 2012.
Kolling, H. M., Stein, R., Fahl, K., Perner, K., and Moros, M.: Short-term
variability in late Holocene sea ice cover on the East Greenland Shelf and
its driving mechanisms, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl.,
485, 336–350, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2017.06.024, 2017.
Koslowski, G. and Glaser, R.: Variations in Reconstructed Ice Winter
Severity in the Western Baltic from 1501 to 1995, and their implications for
the North Atlantic Oscillation, Climatic Change, 41, 175–191, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005466226797, 1999.
Lamb, H. H.: Volcanic Dust in the Atmosphere; with a Chronology and
Assessment of Its Meteorological Significance, Phil. Trans. Royal. Soc. A, 266, 425–533, 1970.
Leijonhufvud, L., Wilson, R., and Moberg, A.: Documentary data provide
evidence of Stockholm average winter to spring temperatures in the
eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, Holocene, 18, 333–343, 2008.
Leijonhufvud, L., Wilson, R., Moberg, A., Söderberg, J., Retsö, D.,
and Söderlind, U.: Five centuries of Stockholm winter/spring
temperatures reconstructed from documentary evidence and instrumental
observations, Climatic Change, 101, 109–141, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9650-y, 2010.
Lenke, W.: Das Klima Ende des 16. und Anfang des 17. Jahrhunderts nach
Beobachtungen von Tycho de Brahe auf Hven, Leonhard III. Treuttwein in
Fürstenfeld und David Fabricius in Ostfriesland, Deutschen
Wetterdienstes, Offenbach a.M., OCLC 164973905, 1968.
Lilja, S.: Lokala klimatkriser och kronans intressen – en fallstudie av
Södertörns kustsocknar ca. 1570–1620, in: Människan anpassaren
– människan överskridaren: Natur, bebyggelse och resursutnyttjande
från sen järnålder till 1700-tal med särskild hänsyn
till östra Mellansverige och Södermanlands kust, edited by: in
Lilja, S., Södertörns högskola, Huddinge, 95–144, ISBN 9789189315617, 2006.
Ludlow, F. and Crampsie, A.: Environmental History of Ireland, 1550–1730,
in: The Cambridge History of Ireland: Volume 2: 1550–1730, vol. 2, edited
by: Ohlmeyer, J., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 608–637, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316338773.027, 2018.
Luterbacher, J., Dietrich, D., Xoplaki, E., Grosjean, M., and Wanner, H.:
European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extremes
Since 1500, Science, 303, 1499–503, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1093877, 2004.
Massé, G., Rowland, S. J., Sicre, M.-A., Jacob, J., Jansen, E., and
Belt, S. T.: Abrupt climate changes for Iceland during the last millennium:
Evidence from high resolution sea ice reconstructions, Earth Planet.
Sc. Lett., 269, 565–69, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2008.03.017, 2008.
McCarroll, D., Loader, N. J., Jalkanen, R., Gagen, M. H., Grudd, H., Gunnarson, B. E., Kirchhefer, A. J., Friedrich, M., Linderholm, H. W., Lindholm, M., Boettger, T., Los, S. O., Remmele, S., Kononov, Y. M., Yamazaki, Y. H., Young, G. H. F., and Zorita, E.: A 1200-year multiproxy record of tree growth and summer temperature at the northern pine forest limit of Europe, Holocene, 23, 471–484, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683612467483, 2013.
Metzger, A. and Tabeaud, M.: Reconstruction of the winter weather in east
Friesland at the turn of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries
(1594–1612), Climatic Change, 141, 331, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1903-6, 2017.
Michel, S., Swingedouw, D., Chavent, M., Ortega, P., Mignot, J., and Khodri, M.: Reconstructing climatic modes of variability from proxy records using ClimIndRec version 1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 841–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-841-2020, 2020.
Moreno-Chamarro, E.: Model data of White et al. (2022, Climate of the Past), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6417226, 2022.
Moreno-Chamarro, E., Zanchettin, D., Lohmann, K., and Jungclaus, J. H.:
Winter amplification of the European Little Ice Age cooling by the subpolar
gyre, Sci. Rep., 7, 9981, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-07969-0, 2017a.
Moreno-Chamarro, E., Zanchettin, D., Lohmann, K., and Jungclaus, J. H.: An
abrupt weakening of the subpolar gyre as trigger of Little Ice Age-type
episodes, Clim. Dynam., 48, 727–744, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3106-7, 2017b.
Müller, J., Werner, K., Stein, R., Fahl, K., Moros, M., and Jansen, E.:
Holocene cooling culminates in sea ice oscillations in Fram Strait,
Quaternary Sci. Rev., 47, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.04.024, 2012.
Ogilvie, A. E. J.: Documentary Evidence for Changes in the Climate of
Iceland, A.D. 1500 to 1800, in: Climate since A.D. 1500, edited by: Bradley,
R. S. and Jones, P. D., Routledge, London, 92–117, ISBN 9781134810369, 1995.
Ogilvie, A. E. J.: Famines, mortality, livestock deaths and scholarship:
Environmental stress in Iceland ca. 1500–1700, in: The Dance of Death in
Late Medieval and Renaissance Europe: Environmental Stress, Mortality and
Social Response, edited by: Kiss, A., and Pribyl, K., Taylor and Francis,
9–24, ISBN 9781032083391, 2019.
Ogilvie, A. E. J.: Writing on Sea Ice: Icelandic Scholars of the Late
Sixteenth and Early Seventeenth Century, in: Ice Humanities: Materiality,
Ontology and Representation, edited by: Dodds, K., and Sörlin, S., in
press, 2022.
Ogilvie, A. E. J. and Jónsdóttir, I.: Sea Ice, Climate, and
Icelandic Fisheries in the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries, Arctic, 53,
383–394, https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic869, 2000.
Ogilvie, A. E. J. and Jónsson, T.: “Little Ice Age” Research: A
Perspective from Iceland, Climatic Change, 48, 9–52, 2001.
Omstedt, A. and Chen, D.: Influence of atmospheric circulation on the
maximum ice extent in the Baltic Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 106, 4493–4500, 2001.
Ortega, P., Lehner, F., Swingedouw, D., Masson-Delmotte, V., Raible, C. C.,
Casado, M., and Yiou, P.: A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation
reconstruction for the past millennium, Nature, 523, 71–74,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14518, 2015.
Otterå, O. H., Bentsen, M., Drange, H., and Suo, L.: External forcing as
a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability, Nat. Geosci., 3,
688–694, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo955, 2010.
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Fasullo, J., Jahn, A., Landrum, L.,
Stevenson, S., Rosenbloom, N., Mai, A., and Strand, G.: Climate variability
and change since 850 CE: An ensemble approach with the Community Earth
System Model, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 735–754,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00233.1, 2016.
Parker, G.: Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe in the
Seventeenth Century, Yale University Press, New Haven, 850 pp., ISBN 9780300208634, 2013.
Parker, G.: History and Climate: The Crisis of the 1590s Reconsidered, in:
Climate Change and Cultural Transition in Europe, edited by: Leggewie, C., and Mauelshagen, F., Brill, Leiden, 119–155, ISBN 9789004356429, 2018.
Pausata, F., Karamperidou, C., Caballero, R., and Battisti, D.: ENSO
response to high-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere: the
role of the initial conditions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 8694–8702,
2016.
Pausata, F. S. R., Chafik, L., Caballero, R., and Battisti, D. S.: Impacts
of high-latitude volcanic eruptions on ENSO and AMOC, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 13784–13788, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1509153112, 2015.
Pfister, C.: Weeping in the Snow: The Second Period of Little Ice Age-type
Impacts, 1570–1630, in: Kulturelle Konsequenzen der Kleine Eiszeit, edited
by: Behringer, W., Lehmann, H., and Pfister, C., Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht,
Göttingen, 31–86, ISBN 9783525358641, 2005.
Pfister, C. and Wanner, H.: Climate and Society in Europe: The Last
Thousand Years, Haupt Verlag, Bern, ISBN 9783258082349, 2021.
Pfister, C. and White, S.: Evidence from the Archives of Societies: Personal
Documentary Sources, in: The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History, edited
by: White, S., Pfister, C., and Mauelshagen, F., Palgrave Macmillan UK,
London, 49–65, https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-43020-5_5, 2018.
Pfister, C., Brázdil, R., Glaser, R., and Barriendos, M.: Documentary
Evidence on Climate in Sixteenth Century Europe, Climatic Change, 43,
55–110, 1999.
Pfister, C., Brázdil, R., Luterbacher, J., Ogilvie, A. E. J., and White,
S.: Early Modern Europe, in: The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History,
edited by: White, S., Pfister, C., and Mauelshagen, F., Palgrave Macmillan
UK, London, 265–295, https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-43020-5_23, 2018.
Prival, J.-M., Thouret, J.-C., Japura, S., Gurioli, L., Bonadonna, C.,
Mariño, J., and Cueva, K.: New insights into eruption source parameters
of the 1600 CE Huaynaputina Plinian eruption, Peru, Bull. Volcanol., 82,
7, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-019-1340-7, 2019.
Robock, A.: Volcanic Eruptions and Climate, Rev. Geophys., 38,
191–219, 2000.
Schneider, L., Smerdon, J. E., Buentgen, U., Wilson, R. J. S., Myglan, V.
S., Kirdyanov, A. V., and Esper, J.: Revising midlatitude summer
temperatures back to AD600 based on a wood density network, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 42, 4556–62, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063956, 2015.
Scott, A. and Knott, M.: A cluster analysis method for grouping means in
the analysis of variance, Biometrics, 30, 507–512, 1974.
Seppel, M.: 1601.–1603. aasta näljahäda Eestimaal 2. Asustuse
vähenemine, näljaabi ja kannibalism, Tuna, 3, 25–43, 2014.
Sigl, M., McConnell, J. R., Layman, L., Maselli, O., McGwire, K., Pasteris,
D., Dahl-Jensen, D., Steffensen, J. P., Vinther, B., Edwards, R., Mulvaney,
R., and Kipfstuhl, S.: A New Bipolar Ice Core Record of Volcanism from WAIS
Divide and NEEM and Implications for Climate Forcing of the Last 2000 Years,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1151–1169, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018603, 2013.
Sigl, M., Winstrup, M., McConnell, J. R., Welten, K. C., Plunkett, G.,
Ludlow, F., Buentgen, U., Caffee, M., Chellman, N., Dahl-Jensen, D.,
Fischer, H., Kipfstuhl, S., Kostick, C., Maselli, O. J., Mekhaldi, F.,
Mulvaney, R., Muscheler, R., Pasteris, D. R., Pilcher, J. R., Salzer, M.,
Schuepbach, S., Steffensen, J. P., Vinther, B. M., and Woodruff, T. E.:
Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2500 years,
Nature, 523, 543–49, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14565, 2015.
Simón, P.: Noticias historiales de las conquistas de Tierra Firme en las
Indias occidentales: partes segunda y tercera, Medardo Rivas, Bogota,
Columbia, 410 pp., 1892.
Soininen, A.: Vanha maataloutemme: Maatalous ja maatalousväestö
Suomessa perinnäisen maatalouden loppukaudella 1720-luvulta
1870-luvulle, Suomen historiallinen seura, Helsinki, 459 pp., ISBN 9789519254043, 1974.
Solantie, R.: Ilmasto ja sen määräämät luonnonolot
Suomen asutuksen ja maatalouden historiassa (No. 196), University of
Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, 301 pp., ISBN 9789513950088, 2012.
Stoffel, M., Khodri, M., Corona, C., Guillet, S., Poulain, V., Bekki, S.,
Guiot, J., Luckman, B. H., Oppenheimer, C., Lebas, N., Beniston, M., and
Masson-Delmotte, V.: Estimates of volcanic-induced cooling in the Northern
Hemisphere over the past 1500 years, Nat. Geosci., 8, 784–88, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2526, 2015.
Tarand, A.: Ice-cover in the Baltic region and the air temperature of the
Little Ice Age, in: Proceedings of the International Symposium on the Little
Ice Age Climate, edited by: Mikami, T., Tokyo Metropolitan University,
Tokyo, 94–100, OCLC 39718862, 1992.
Tarand, A. and Nordli, P. O.: The Tallinn Temperature Series Reconstructed
Back Half a Millennium by Use of Proxy Data, Climatic Change, 48, 189–99,
2001.
Tarand, A., Jagus, J., and Kallis, A.: Eesti kliima minevikus ja
tänapäeval, University of Tartu Press, Tartu, ISBN 9789949323241, 2013.
Thompson, L. G., Mosley-Thompson, E., Davis, M. E., Zagorodnov, V. S.,
Howat, I. M., Mikhalenko, V. N., and Lin, P.-N.: Annually Resolved Ice Core
Records of Tropical Climate Variability over the Past ∼ 1800
Years, Science, 340, 945–950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1234210, 2013.
Thouret, J.-C., Cantagrel, J. M., Salinas, R., and Murcia, A.: Quaternary
Eruptive History of Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia), J. Volcanol.
Geoth. Res., 41, 225–251, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(90)90090-3, 1990.
Thouret, J.-C., Juvigné, E., Gourgaud, A., Boivin, P., and Dávila,
J.: Reconstruction of the AD 1600 Huaynaputina Eruption Based on the
Correlation of Geologic Evidence with Early Spanish Chronicles, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 115, 529–570, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(01)00323-7, 2002.
Timmreck, C.: Modeling the climatic effects of large explosive volcanic
eruptions, WIREs Clim. Change, 3, 545–564, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.192, 2012.
Toohey, M. and Sigl, M.: Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth from 500 BCE to 1900 CE, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 809–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-809-2017, 2017.
Toohey, M., Krüger, K., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C., Sigl, M., Stoffel,
M., and Wilson, R.: Disproportionately strong climate forcing from
extratropical explosive volcanic eruptions, Nat. Geosci., 12, 100–107, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0286-2, 2019.
Utterström, G.: Climatic fluctuations and population problems in early
modern history, Scandinavian Economic History Review, 3, 3–47, https://doi.org/10.1080/03585522.1955.10411467, 1955.
Verosub, K. L. and Lippman, J.: Global Impacts of the 1600 Eruption of
Peru's Huaynaputina Volcano, Eos Trans. AGU, 89, 141–142, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008EO150001, 2008.
Voipio, V.: Katovuosi vaikutuksineen 1601 Varsinais-Suomessa, Hist.
Arkist., 24, 1–37, 1914.
White, S.: A Cold Welcome: The Little Ice Age and Europe's Encounter with
North America, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, ISBN 9780674244900, 2017.
Wickman, T.: Narrating Indigenous Histories of Climate Change in the
Americas and Pacific, in: The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History, edited
by: White, S., Pfister, C., and Mauelshagen, F., Palgrave Macmillan UK,
London, 387–411, https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-43020-5_30, 2018.
Wilson, R., Anchukaitis, K., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Cook, E.,
D'Arrigo, R., Davi, N., Esper, J., Frank, D., Gunnarson, B., Hegerl, G.,
Helama, S., Klesse, S., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Myglan, V.,
Osborn, T. J., Rydval, M., Schneider, L., Schurer, A., Wiles, G., Zhang, P., and Zorita, E.: Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from
tree rings: Part I: The long term context, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 134, 1–18,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.12.005, 2016.
Zanchettin, D.: Aerosol and Solar Irradiance Effects on Decadal Climate
Variability and Predictability, Current Climate Change Reports, 3, 150–162,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0065-y, 2017.
Zanchettin, D., Timmreck, C., Graf, H.-F., Rubino, A., Lorenz, S., Lohmann,
K., Krüger, K., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Bi-Decadal Variability Excited in
the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere System by Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruptions,
Clim. Dynam., 39, 419–44, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1167-1, 2012.
Zanchettin, D., Timmreck, C., Bothe, O., Lorenz, S. J., Hegerl, G., Graf,
H.-F., Luterbacher, J., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Delayed Winter Warming: A
Robust Decadal Response to Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruptions?, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 40, 204–209, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL054403, 2013.
Zanchettin, D., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Jungclaus, J., Bittner, M.,
Lorenz, S., and Rubino, A.: Clarifying the Relative Role of Forcing
Uncertainties and Initial-Condition Unknowns in Spreading the Climate
Response to Volcanic Eruptions, Geophys. Res. Lett, 46, 1602–1611, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081018, 2019.
Zhong, Y., Miller, G. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Holland, M. M., Bailey, D.
A., Schneider, D. P., and Geirsdottir, A.: Centennial-Scale Climate Change
from Decadally-Paced Explosive Volcanism: A Coupled Sea Ice-Ocean Mechanism,
Clim. Dynam., 37, 2373–2387, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0967-z, 2011.
Zhong, Y., Jahn, A., Miller, G. H., and Geirsdottir, A.: Asymmetric Cooling of the Atlantic and Pacific Arctic During the Past Two Millennia: A Dual
Observation-Modeling Study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12497–12505,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079447, 2018.
Zilberstein, A.: A Temperate Empire: Making Climate Change in Early America,
Oxford University Press, New York, 280 pp., ISBN 9780190055516, 2016.
Short summary
This study examines whether the 1600 Huaynaputina volcano eruption triggered persistent cooling in the North Atlantic. It compares previous paleoclimate simulations with new climate reconstructions from natural proxies and historical documents and finds that the reconstructions are consistent with, but do not support, an eruption trigger for persistent cooling. The study also analyzes societal impacts of climatic change in ca. 1600 and the use of historical observations in model–data comparison.
This study examines whether the 1600 Huaynaputina volcano eruption triggered persistent cooling...
