Articles | Volume 18, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Jul 2022
Research article |
| 13 Jul 2022
| 13 Jul 2022
Investigating stable oxygen and carbon isotopic variability in speleothem records over the last millennium using multiple isotope-enabled climate models
Janica C. Bühler
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Environmental Physics, Heidelberg University, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
Josefine Axelsson
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Franziska A. Lechleitner
Department of Chemistry, Biochemistry and Pharmaceutical Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Jens Fohlmeister
Federal Office for Radiation Protection, 10318 Berlin, Germany
Section “Climate Dynamics and Landscape Development”, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Allegra N. LeGrande
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
Madhavan Midhun
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Kochi, Kerala 682016, India
Earth Research Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
Jesper Sjolte
Department of Geology, Lund University, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Martin Werner
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, 27515 Bremerhaven, Germany
Kei Yoshimura
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5, Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba, 277-8574, Japan
Kira Rehfeld
Institute of Environmental Physics, Heidelberg University, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
Department of Geoscience, Geo- und Umweltforschungszentrum, Schnarrenbergstr. 94–96, 72074 Tübingen, Germany
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Speleothems are a popular, multi-proxy climate archive that provide regional to global insights into past hydroclimate trends with precise chronologies. We present an update to the SISAL (Speleothem Isotopes
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Hongyue Zhang, Jesper Sjolte, Zhengyao Lu, Jian Liu, Weiyi Sun, and Lingfeng Wan
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Di Wang, Lide Tian, Camille Risi, Xuejie Wang, Jiangpeng Cui, Gabriel J. Bowen, Kei Yoshimura, Zhongwang Wei, and Laurent Z. X. Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3409–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3409-2023, 2023
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Christian Wirths, Elisa Ziegler, and Kira Rehfeld
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-86, 2023
Preprint archived
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Ram Singh, Kostas Tsigaridis, Allegra N. LeGrande, Francis Ludlow, and Joseph G. Manning
Clim. Past, 19, 249–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, 2023
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Farahnaz Khosrawi, Kinya Toride, Kei Yoshimura, Christopher Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Frank Hase, and Matthias Schneider
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1408, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
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We assess with an Observation System Simulation Experiment the potential of mid-tropospheric water isotopologue data for constraining uncertainties in meteorological analysis fields in the tropics. Our assimilation experiments indicate that isotopologue observations have the potential to reduce the uncertainties of diabatic heating rates and precipitation in the tropics and in consequence offer potential for improving meteorological analysis in the tropical regions.
Jiajia Wang, Hongxi Pang, Shuangye Wu, Spruce W. Schoenemann, Ryu Uemura, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Sentia Goursaud Oger, Summer Rupper, and Shugui Hou
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-384, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-384, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Antoine Grisart, Mathieu Casado, Vasileios Gkinis, Bo Vinther, Philippe Naveau, Mathieu Vrac, Thomas Laepple, Bénédicte Minster, Frederic Prié, Barbara Stenni, Elise Fourré, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Jean Jouzel, Martin Werner, Katy Pol, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Maria Hoerhold, Trevor Popp, and Amaelle Landais
Clim. Past, 18, 2289–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, 2022
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This paper presents a compilation of high-resolution (11 cm) water isotopic records, including published and new measurements, for the last 800 000 years from the EPICA Dome C ice core, Antarctica. Using this new combined water isotopes (δ18O and δD) dataset, we study the variability and possible influence of diffusion at the multi-decadal to multi-centennial scale. We observe a stronger variability at the onset of the interglacial interval corresponding to a warm period.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
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Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Davide Zanchettin, Claudia Timmreck, Myriam Khodri, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Manabu Abe, Slimane Bekki, Jason Cole, Shih-Wei Fang, Wuhu Feng, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Nicolas Lebas, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Landon Rieger, Alan Robock, Sara Rubinetti, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Helen Weierbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2265–2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, 2022
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This paper provides metadata and first analyses of the volc-pinatubo-full experiment of CMIP6-VolMIP. Results from six Earth system models reveal significant differences in radiative flux anomalies that trace back to different implementations of volcanic forcing. Surface responses are in contrast overall consistent across models, reflecting the large spread due to internal variability. A second phase of VolMIP shall consider both aspects toward improved protocol for volc-pinatubo-full.
Stephan Krätschmer, Michèlle van der Does, Frank Lamy, Gerrit Lohmann, Christoph Völker, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 18, 67–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, 2022
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We use an atmospheric model coupled to an aerosol model to investigate the global mineral dust cycle with a focus on the Southern Hemisphere for warmer and colder climate states and compare our results to observational data. Our findings suggest that Australia is the predominant source of dust deposited over Antarctica during the last glacial maximum. In addition, we find that the southward transport of dust from all sources to Antarctica happens at lower altitudes in colder climates.
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
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We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
Caroline Welte, Jens Fohlmeister, Melina Wertnik, Lukas Wacker, Bodo Hattendorf, Timothy I. Eglinton, and Christoph Spötl
Clim. Past, 17, 2165–2177, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2165-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2165-2021, 2021
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Stalagmites are valuable climate archives, but unlike other proxies the use of stable carbon isotopes (δ13C) is still difficult. A stalagmite from the Austrian Alps was analyzed using a new laser ablation method for fast radiocarbon (14C) analysis. This allowed 14C and δ13C to be combined, showing that besides soil and bedrock a third source is contributing during periods of warm, wet climate: old organic matter.
Saeid Bagheri Dastgerdi, Melanie Behrens, Jean-Louis Bonne, Maria Hörhold, Gerrit Lohmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 15, 4745–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, 2021
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In this study, for the first time, water vapour isotope measurements in Antarctica for all seasons of a year are performed. Local temperature is identified as the main driver of δ18O and δD variability. A similar slope of the temperature–δ18O relationship in vapour and surface snow points to the water vapour isotope content as a potential key driver. This dataset can be used as a new dataset to evaluate the capability of isotope-enhanced climate models.
Franziska A. Lechleitner, Christopher C. Day, Oliver Kost, Micah Wilhelm, Negar Haghipour, Gideon M. Henderson, and Heather M. Stoll
Clim. Past, 17, 1903–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1903-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1903-2021, 2021
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Soil respiration is a critical but poorly constrained component of the global carbon cycle. We analyse the effect of changing soil respiration rates on the stable carbon isotope ratio of speleothems from northern Spain covering the last deglaciation. Using geochemical analysis and forward modelling we quantify the processes affecting speleothem stable carbon isotope ratios and extract a signature of increasing soil respiration synchronous with deglacial warming.
Marcus Breil, Emanuel Christner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, Melanie Karremann, and Gerd Schädler
Clim. Past, 17, 1685–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1685-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1685-2021, 2021
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For the first time an isotope-enabled regional climate simulation for Greenland is performed for the mid-Holocene. Simulation results are compared with observed isotope ratios in ice cores. Compared to global climate simulations, a regional downscaling improves the agreement with measured isotope concentrations. Thus, an isotope-enabled regional climate simulation constitutes a useful supplement to reconstruct regional paleo-climate conditions during the mid-Holocene in Greenland.
Farahnaz Khosrawi, Kinya Toride, Kei Yoshimura, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Frank Hase, and Matthias Schneider
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-49, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We assess with an Observation System Simulation Experiment the potential of mid-tropospheric water isotopologue data for constraining uncertainties in meteorological analysis fields in the tropics. Our assimilation experiments indicate that isotopologue observations have the potential to reduce the uncertainties of diabatic heating rates and meteorological variables in the tropics and in consequence offer potential for improving meteorological analysis in the tropical regions.
Thomas Münch, Martin Werner, and Thomas Laepple
Clim. Past, 17, 1587–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1587-2021, 2021
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We analyse Holocene climate model simulation data to find the locations of Antarctic ice cores which are best suited to reconstruct local- to regional-scale temperatures. We find that the spatial decorrelation scales of the temperature variations and of the noise from precipitation intermittency set an effective sampling length scale. Following this, a single core should be located at the
target site for the temperature reconstruction, and a second one optimally lies more than 500 km away.
Raphaël Hébert, Kira Rehfeld, and Thomas Laepple
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 311–328, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-311-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-311-2021, 2021
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Paleoclimate proxy data are essential for broadening our understanding of climate variability. There remain, however, challenges for traditional methods of variability analysis to be applied to such data, which are usually irregular. We perform a comparative analysis of different methods of scaling analysis, which provide variability estimates as a function of timescales, applied to irregular paleoclimate proxy data.
Nathalie Van der Putten, Florian Adolphi, Anette Mellström, Jesper Sjolte, Cyriel Verbruggen, Jan-Berend Stuut, Tobias Erhardt, Yves Frenot, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-69, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-69, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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In recent decades, Southern Hemisphere westerlies (SHW) moved equator-ward during periods of low solar activity leading to increased winds/precipitation at 46° S, Indian Ocean. We present a terrestrial SHW proxy-record and find stronger SHW influence at Crozet, shortly after 2.8 ka BP, synchronous with a climate shift in the Northern Hemisphere, attributed to a major decline in solar activity. The bipolar response to solar forcing is supported by a climate model forced by solar irradiance only.
Sarah E. Parker, Sandy P. Harrison, Laia Comas-Bru, Nikita Kaushal, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 1119–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, 2021
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Regional trends in the oxygen isotope (δ18O) composition of stalagmites reflect several climate processes. We compare stalagmite δ18O records from monsoon regions and model simulations to identify the causes of δ18O variability over the last 12 000 years, and between glacial and interglacial states. Precipitation changes explain the glacial–interglacial δ18O changes in all monsoon regions; Holocene trends are due to a combination of precipitation, atmospheric circulation and temperature changes.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Elisa Ziegler and Kira Rehfeld
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2843–2866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2843-2021, 2021
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Past climate changes are the only record of how the climate responds to changes in conditions on Earth, but simulations with complex climate models are challenging. We extended a simple climate model such that it simulates the development of temperatures over time. In the model, changes in carbon dioxide and ice distribution affect the simulated temperatures the most. The model is very efficient and can therefore be used to examine past climate changes happening over long periods of time.
Janica C. Bühler, Carla Roesch, Moritz Kirschner, Louise Sime, Max D. Holloway, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 17, 985–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, 2021
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We present three new isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium (850–1850 CE) and compare them to records from a global speleothem database. Offsets between the simulated and measured oxygen isotope ratios are fairly small. While modeled oxygen isotope ratios are more variable on decadal timescales, proxy records are more variable on (multi-)centennial timescales. This could be due to a lack of long-term variability in complex model simulations, but proxy biases cannot be excluded.
Iris Thurnherr, Katharina Hartmuth, Lukas Jansing, Josué Gehring, Maxi Boettcher, Irina Gorodetskaya, Martin Werner, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 331–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, 2021
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Extratropical cyclones are important for the transport of moisture from low to high latitudes. In this study, we investigate how the isotopic composition of water vapour is affected by horizontal temperature advection associated with extratropical cyclones using measurements and modelling. It is shown that air–sea moisture fluxes induced by this horizontal temperature advection lead to the strong variability observed in the isotopic composition of water vapour in the marine boundary layer.
André Paul, Stefan Mulitza, Rüdiger Stein, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-805-2021, 2021
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Maps and fields of near-sea-surface temperature differences between the past and present can be used to visualize and quantify climate changes and perform simulations with climate models. We used a statistical method to map sparse and scattered data for the Last Glacial Maximum time period (23 000 to 19 000 years before present) to a regular grid. The estimated global and tropical cooling would imply an equilibrium climate sensitivity in the lower to middle part of the currently accepted range.
Qiong Zhang, Ellen Berntell, Josefine Axelsson, Jie Chen, Zixuan Han, Wesley de Nooijer, Zhengyao Lu, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1147–1169, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1147-2021, 2021
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Paleoclimate modelling has long been regarded as a strong out-of-sample test bed of the climate models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. Here, we document the model experimental setups for the three past warm periods with EC-Earth3-LR and present the results on the large-scale features. The simulations demonstrate good performance of the model in capturing the climate response under different climate forcings.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
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The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
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The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Laia Comas-Bru, Kira Rehfeld, Carla Roesch, Sahar Amirnezhad-Mozhdehi, Sandy P. Harrison, Kamolphat Atsawawaranunt, Syed Masood Ahmad, Yassine Ait Brahim, Andy Baker, Matthew Bosomworth, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Yuval Burstyn, Andrea Columbu, Michael Deininger, Attila Demény, Bronwyn Dixon, Jens Fohlmeister, István Gábor Hatvani, Jun Hu, Nikita Kaushal, Zoltán Kern, Inga Labuhn, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Andrew Lorrey, Belen Martrat, Valdir Felipe Novello, Jessica Oster, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Denis Scholz, Nick Scroxton, Nitesh Sinha, Brittany Marie Ward, Sophie Warken, Haiwei Zhang, and SISAL Working Group members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2579–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2579-2020, 2020
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This paper presents an updated version of the SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and Analysis) database. This new version contains isotopic data from 691 speleothem records from 294 cave sites and new age–depth models, including their uncertainties, for 512 speleothems.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
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This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Jesper Sjolte, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Raimund Muscheler, Christophe Sturm, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 16, 1737–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, 2020
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In this study we investigate seasonal climate reconstructions produced by matching climate model output to ice core and tree-ring data, and we evaluate the model–data reconstructions against meteorological observations. The reconstructions capture the main patterns of variability in sea level pressure and temperature in summer and winter. The performance of the reconstructions depends on seasonal climate variability itself, and definitions of seasons can be optimized to capture this variability.
Jean-Louis Bonne, Hanno Meyer, Melanie Behrens, Julia Boike, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Benjamin Rabe, Toni Schmidt, Lutz Schönicke, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10493–10511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, 2020
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This study introduces 2 years of continuous near-surface in situ observations of the stable isotopic composition of water vapour in parallel with precipitation in north-eastern Siberia. We evaluate the atmospheric transport of moisture towards the region of our observations with simulations constrained by meteorological reanalyses and use this information to interpret the temporal variations of the vapour isotopic composition from seasonal to synoptic timescales.
Florian Mekhaldi, Markus Czymzik, Florian Adolphi, Jesper Sjolte, Svante Björck, Ala Aldahan, Achim Brauer, Celia Martin-Puertas, Göran Possnert, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 16, 1145–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1145-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1145-2020, 2020
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Due to chronology uncertainties within paleoclimate archives, it is unclear how climate oscillations from different records relate to one another. By using radionuclides to synchronize Greenland ice cores and a German lake record over 11 000 years, we show that two oscillations observed in these records were not synchronous but terminated and began with the onset of a grand solar minimum. Both this and changes in ocean circulation could have played a role in the two climate oscillations.
Kira Rehfeld, Raphaël Hébert, Juan M. Lora, Marcus Lofverstrom, and Chris M. Brierley
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 447–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020, 2020
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Under continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, it is likely that global mean surface temperature will continue to increase. Little is known about changes in climate variability. We analyze surface climate variability and compare it to mean change in colder- and warmer-than-present climate model simulations. In most locations, but not on subtropical land, simulated temperature variability up to decadal timescales decreases with mean temperature, and precipitation variability increases.
Svante Björck, Jesper Sjolte, Karl Ljung, Florian Adolphi, Roger Flower, Rienk H. Smittenberg, Malin E. Kylander, Thomas F. Stocker, Sofia Holmgren, Hui Jiang, Raimund Muscheler, Yamoah K. K. Afrifa, Jayne E. Rattray, and Nathalie Van der Putten
Clim. Past, 15, 1939–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1939-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1939-2019, 2019
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Southern Hemisphere westerlies play a key role in regulating global climate. A lake sediment record on a mid-South Atlantic island shows changes in the westerlies and hydroclimate 36.4–18.6 ka. Before 31 ka the westerlies shifted in concert with the bipolar seesaw mechanism in a fairly warm climate, followed by southerly westerlies and falling temperatures. After 27.5 ka temperatures dropped 3 °C with drier conditions and with shifting westerlies possibly triggering the variable LGM CO2 levels.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
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We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Hera Guðlaugsdóttir, Jesper Sjolte, Árný Erla Sveinbjörnsdóttir, and Hans Christian Steen-Larsen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-99, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-99, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In the North Atlantic four modes of climate variability dominate weather. Here we assess how these modes are affected after both equatorial and high latitude eruptions, known to influence temperature in the atmosphere. Main results show that the modes associated with extreme weather events tend to follow high latitude eruptions as opposed to equatorial eruptions. These modes have also become more frequent as a result of anthropogenic warming, providing an insight into the dominating mechanism.
Laia Comas-Bru, Sandy P. Harrison, Martin Werner, Kira Rehfeld, Nick Scroxton, Cristina Veiga-Pires, and SISAL working group members
Clim. Past, 15, 1557–1579, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019, 2019
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We use an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled climate model to provide a protocol for using speleothem isotopic data for model evaluation, including screening the observations and the optimum period for the modern observational baseline. We also illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotopic values during any time period could be used for model evaluation.
Hiroaki Tatebe, Tomoo Ogura, Tomoko Nitta, Yoshiki Komuro, Koji Ogochi, Toshihiko Takemura, Kengo Sudo, Miho Sekiguchi, Manabu Abe, Fuyuki Saito, Minoru Chikira, Shingo Watanabe, Masato Mori, Nagio Hirota, Yoshio Kawatani, Takashi Mochizuki, Kei Yoshimura, Kumiko Takata, Ryouta O'ishi, Dai Yamazaki, Tatsuo Suzuki, Masao Kurogi, Takahito Kataoka, Masahiro Watanabe, and Masahide Kimoto
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2727–2765, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019, 2019
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For a deeper understanding of a wide range of climate science issues, the latest version of the Japanese climate model, called MIROC6, was developed. The climate model represents observed mean climate and climate variations well, for example tropical precipitation, the midlatitude westerlies, and the East Asian monsoon, which influence human activity all over the world. The improved climate simulations could add reliability to climate predictions under global warming.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Suzanne Preunkert, Michel Legrand, Bénédicte Minster, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 13, 1297–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1297-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1297-2019, 2019
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We report new water stable isotope records from the first highly resolved firn core drilled in Adélie Land and covering 1998–2014. Using an updated database, we show that mean values are in line with the range of coastal values. Statistical analyses show no relationship between our record and local surface air temperature. Atmospheric back trajectories and isotopic simulations suggest that water stable isotopes in Adélie provide a fingerprint of the variability of atmospheric dynamics.
François Klein, Nerilie J. Abram, Mark A. J. Curran, Hugues Goosse, Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Andrew Moy, Raphael Neukom, Anaïs Orsi, Jesper Sjolte, Nathan Steiger, Barbara Stenni, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019
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Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
Matthias M. May and Kira Rehfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-1-2019, 2019
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Current CO2 emission rates are incompatible with the 2 °C target for global warming. Negative emission technologies are therefore an important basis for climate policy scenarios. We show that photoelectrochemical CO2 reduction might be a viable, high-efficiency alternative to biomass-based approaches, which reduce competition for arable land. To develop them, chemical reactions have to be optimized for CO2 removal, which deviates from energetic efficiency optimization in solar fuel applications.
Kamolphat Atsawawaranunt, Laia Comas-Bru, Sahar Amirnezhad Mozhdehi, Michael Deininger, Sandy P. Harrison, Andy Baker, Meighan Boyd, Nikita Kaushal, Syed Masood Ahmad, Yassine Ait Brahim, Monica Arienzo, Petra Bajo, Kerstin Braun, Yuval Burstyn, Sakonvan Chawchai, Wuhui Duan, István Gábor Hatvani, Jun Hu, Zoltán Kern, Inga Labuhn, Matthew Lachniet, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Andrew Lorrey, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Robyn Pickering, Nick Scroxton, and SISAL Working Group Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1687–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1687-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1687-2018, 2018
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This paper is an overview of the contents of the SISAL database and its structure. The database contains oxygen and carbon isotope measurements from 371 individual speleothem records and 10 composite records from 174 cave systems from around the world. The SISAL database is created by a collective effort of the members of the Past Global Changes SISAL working group, which aims to provide a comprehensive compilation of speleothem isotope records for climate reconstruction and model evaluation.
Jesper Sjolte, Christophe Sturm, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 14, 1179–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, 2018
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Tropical volcanic eruptions and variations in solar activity have been suggested to influence the strength of westerly winds across the North Atlantic. We use Greenland ice core records together with a climate model simulation, and find stronger westerly winds for five winters following tropical volcanic eruptions. We see a delayed response to solar activity of 5 years, and the response to solar minima corresponds well to the cooling pattern during the period known as the Little Ice Age.
Minjie Zheng, Jesper Sjolte, Florian Adolphi, Bo Møllesøe Vinther, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Trevor James Popp, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 14, 1067–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1067-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1067-2018, 2018
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We show the seasonal δ18O data from the NEEM site in northwestern Greenland over the last 150 years. We found that the NEEM summer δ18O signal correlates well with summer temperature in western coastal Greenland, while the NEEM winter δ18O signal correlates well with sea ice concentration in Baffin Bay. In contrast with the winter δ18O data from central/southern Greenland, we find no linkage of NEEM winter δ18O to winter NAO.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Anaïs Orsi, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 14, 923–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-923-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-923-2018, 2018
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Atmospheric general circulation models equipped with water stable isotopes are key tools to explore the links between climate variables and precipitation isotopic composition and thus to quantify past temperature changes using ice core records. Here, we evaluate the skills of ECHAM5-wiso to simulate the spatio-temporal characteristics of Antarctic climate and precipitation isotopic composition at the regional scale, thanks to a database of precipitation and ice core records.
Stephanie A. P. Blake, Sophie C. Lewis, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Ron L. Miller
Clim. Past, 14, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-811-2018, 2018
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We studied the impact of the six largest tropical eruptions in reference to
Australian precipitation, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Volcanic forcing increased the likelihood of El Niños and positive IODs (pIOD) and caused positive rainfall anomalies over north-west (NW) and south-east (SE) Australia. Larger sulfate loading caused more persistent pIOD and El Niños, enhanced precipitation over NW Australia, and dampened precipitation over SE Australia.
Sebastian G. Mutz, Todd A. Ehlers, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, Christian Stepanek, and Jingmin Li
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 271–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, 2018
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We use a climate model and statistics to provide an overview of regional climates from different times in the late Cenozoic. We focus on tectonically active mountain ranges in particular. Our results highlight significant changes in climates throughout the late Cenozoic, which should be taken into consideration when interpreting erosion rates. We also document the differences between model- and proxy-based estimates for late Cenozoic climate change in South America and Tibet.
Lauren Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Ken S. Carslaw, Graham W. Mann, Michael Sigl, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Davide Zanchettin, William T. Ball, Slimane Bekki, James S. A. Brooke, Sandip Dhomse, Colin Johnson, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, James O. Pope, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, 2018
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We use four global aerosol models to compare the simulated sulfate deposition from the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption to ice core records. Inter-model volcanic sulfate deposition differs considerably. Volcanic sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets is used to estimate the atmospheric sulfate burden and subsequently radiative forcing of historic eruptions. Our results suggest that deriving such relationships from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
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Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
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Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
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The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Anne-Katrine Faber, Bo Møllesøe Vinther, Jesper Sjolte, and Rasmus Anker Pedersen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5865–5876, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5865-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5865-2017, 2017
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The recent decades loss of Arctic sea ice provide an interesting opportunity to study the impact of sea ice changes on the isotopic composition of Arctic precipitation. Using a climate model that can simulate water isotopes, we find that reduced sea ice extent yields more enriched isotope values while increased sea ice extent yields more
depleted isotope values. Results also show that the spatial distribution of the sea ice extent are important.
Atsushi Okazaki and Kei Yoshimura
Clim. Past, 13, 379–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-379-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-379-2017, 2017
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Data assimilation has been successfully applied in the field of paleoclimatology to reconstruct past climate. However, data reconstructed from proxies have been assimilated, as opposed to the actual proxy values, which prevented full utilization of the information recorded in the proxies. This study propose a new data assimilation system in which actual proxy data are directly assimilated.
Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Eleni Anagnostou, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Rodrigo Caballero, Rob DeConto, Henk A. Dijkstra, Yannick Donnadieu, David Evans, Ran Feng, Gavin L. Foster, Ed Gasson, Anna S. von der Heydt, Chris J. Hollis, Gordon N. Inglis, Stephen M. Jones, Jeff Kiehl, Sandy Kirtland Turner, Robert L. Korty, Reinhardt Kozdon, Srinath Krishnan, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Petra Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Allegra N. LeGrande, Kate Littler, Paul Markwick, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Paul Pearson, Christopher J. Poulsen, Ulrich Salzmann, Christine Shields, Kathryn Snell, Michael Stärz, James Super, Clay Tabor, Jessica E. Tierney, Gregory J. L. Tourte, Aradhna Tripati, Garland R. Upchurch, Bridget S. Wade, Scott L. Wing, Arne M. E. Winguth, Nicky M. Wright, James C. Zachos, and Richard E. Zeebe
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 889–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, 2017
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In this paper we describe the experimental design for a set of simulations which will be carried out by a range of climate models, all investigating the climate of the Eocene, about 50 million years ago. The intercomparison of model results is called 'DeepMIP', and we anticipate that we will contribute to the next IPCC report through an analysis of these simulations and the geological data to which we will compare them.
Matthias Schneider, Christian Borger, Andreas Wiegele, Frank Hase, Omaira E. García, Eliezer Sepúlveda, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 507–525, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-507-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-507-2017, 2017
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The characteristics of {H2O,δD} pair space-based remote sensing data depend on the atmospheric and surface conditions, which compromises their usage for model evaluation studies. This paper shows how the problem can be overcome by simulating MUSICA MetOp/IASI {H2O,δD} remote sensing products for any given model atmosphere. The remote sensing retrieval simulator is freely provided as a MATLAB and Python routine.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Susanne Preunkert, Michel Fily, Hubert Gallée, Bruno Jourdain, Michel Legrand, Olivier Magand, Bénédicte Minster, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 11, 343–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-343-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-343-2017, 2017
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Uncertainty of sea level changes is a challenge. As Antarctica is the biggest water reservoir, it is necessary to know how it will contribute. To be able to simulate it, an understanding of past climate is to be achieved, for instance, by studying the ice cores. As climate change is different in different regions, observations are needed all over the continent. Studying an ice core in Adélie Land, we can conclude that there are no changes there at decadal scale over the period 1947–2007.
Kira Rehfeld, Mathias Trachsel, Richard J. Telford, and Thomas Laepple
Clim. Past, 12, 2255–2270, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2255-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2255-2016, 2016
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Indirect evidence on past climate comes from the former composition of ecological communities such as plants, preserved as pollen grains in sediments of lakes. Transfer functions convert relative counts of species to a climatologically meaningful scale (e.g. annual mean temperature in degrees C). We show that the fundamental assumptions in the algorithms impact the reconstruction results in he idealized model world, in particular if the reconstructed variables were not ecologically relevant.
Michael Deininger, Martin Werner, and Frank McDermott
Clim. Past, 12, 2127–2143, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, 2016
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This study investigates the NAO (Northern Atlantic Oscillation)-related mechanisms that control winter precipitation stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients across Europe. The results show that past longitudinal stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients in European rainfall stored in palaeoclimate archives (e.g. speleothems) can be used to infer the past winter NAO modes from its variations.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Christopher M. Colose, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Mathias Vuille
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 681–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-681-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-681-2016, 2016
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A band of intense rainfall exists near the equator known as the intertropical convergence zone, which can migrate in response to climate forcings. Here, we assess such migration in response to volcanic eruptions of varying spatial structure (Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, or an eruption fairly symmetric about the equator). We do this using model simulations of the last millennium and link results to energetic constraints and the imprint eruptions may leave behind in past records.
Davide Zanchettin, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Anja Schmidt, Edwin P. Gerber, Gabriele Hegerl, Alan Robock, Francesco S. R. Pausata, William T. Ball, Susanne E. Bauer, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Michael Mills, Marion Marchand, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Eugene Rozanov, Angelo Rubino, Andrea Stenke, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016
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Simulating volcanically-forced climate variability is a challenging task for climate models. The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) – an endorsed contribution to CMIP6 – defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability of results across different climate models. This paper illustrates the design of VolMIP's experiments and describes the aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.
François Ritter, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Martin Werner, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Anais Orsi, Melanie Behrens, Gerit Birnbaum, Johannes Freitag, Camille Risi, and Sepp Kipfstuhl
The Cryosphere, 10, 1647–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1647-2016, 2016
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We present successful continuous measurements of water vapor isotopes performed in Antarctica in January 2013. The interest is to understand the impact of the water vapor isotopic composition on the near-surface snow isotopes. Our study reveals a diurnal cycle in the snow isotopic composition in phase with the vapor. This finding suggests fractionation during the sublimation of the ice, which has an important consequence on the interpretation of water isotope variations in ice cores.
Anna Dittmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Jordan G. Powers, Kevin W. Manning, Martin Werner, and Koji Fujita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6883–6900, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6883-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6883-2016, 2016
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For a better understanding of the stable water isotope data from ice cores, recent time periods have to be analysed, where both measurements and model simulations are available. This was done for Dome Fuji by combining observations, synoptic analysis, back trajectories, and isotopic modelling. It was found that a more northerly moisture source does not necessarily mean a larger temperature difference between source area and deposition site and thus precipitation more depleted in heavy isotopes.
Christopher M. Colose, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Mathias Vuille
Clim. Past, 12, 961–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-961-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-961-2016, 2016
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Volcanic forcing is the most important source of forced variability during the preindustrial component of the last millennium (~ 850-1850 CE) and is important during the last century.
Here, we focus on the climate impact over South America in a model-based study. Emphasis is given to temperature, precipitation, and oxygen isotope variability (allowing for potential contact made with paleoclimate-based observations)
Here, we focus on the climate impact over South America in a model-based study. Emphasis is given to temperature, precipitation, and oxygen isotope variability (allowing for potential contact made with paleoclimate-based observations)
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Paul Hearty, Reto Ruedy, Maxwell Kelley, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Gary Russell, George Tselioudis, Junji Cao, Eric Rignot, Isabella Velicogna, Blair Tormey, Bailey Donovan, Evgeniya Kandiano, Karina von Schuckmann, Pushker Kharecha, Allegra N. Legrande, Michael Bauer, and Kwok-Wai Lo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016, 2016
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We use climate simulations, paleoclimate data and modern observations to infer that continued high fossil fuel emissions will yield cooling of Southern Ocean and North Atlantic surfaces, slowdown and shutdown of SMOC & AMOC, increasingly powerful storms and nonlinear sea level rise reaching several meters in 50–150 years, effects missed in IPCC reports because of omission of ice sheet melt and an insensitivity of most climate models, likely due to excessive ocean mixing.
Matthew J. Carmichael, Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Malte Heinemann, Jeffrey Kiehl, Allegra LeGrande, Claire A. Loptson, Chris D. Roberts, Navjit Sagoo, Christine Shields, Paul J. Valdes, Arne Winguth, Cornelia Winguth, and Richard D. Pancost
Clim. Past, 12, 455–481, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-455-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-455-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we assess how well model-simulated precipitation rates compare to those indicated by geological data for the early Eocene, a warm interval 56–49 million years ago. Our results show that a number of models struggle to produce sufficient precipitation at high latitudes, which likely relates to cool simulated temperatures in these regions. However, calculating precipitation rates from plant fossils is highly uncertain, and further data are now required.
M. Werner, B. Haese, X. Xu, X. Zhang, M. Butzin, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 647–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, 2016
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This paper presents the first results of a new isotope-enabled GCM set-up, based on the ECHAM5/MPI-OM fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Results of two equilibrium simulations under pre-industrial and Last Glacial Maximum conditions reveal a good to very good agreement with many delta O-18 and delta D observational records, and a remarkable improvement for the modelling of the deuterium excess signal in Antarctic ice cores.
S. Jasechko, A. Lechler, F. S. R. Pausata, P. J. Fawcett, T. Gleeson, D. I. Cendón, J. Galewsky, A. N. LeGrande, C. Risi, Z. D. Sharp, J. M. Welker, M. Werner, and K. Yoshimura
Clim. Past, 11, 1375–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, 2015
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In this study we compile global isotope proxy records of climate changes from the last ice age to the late-Holocene preserved in cave calcite, glacial ice and groundwater aquifers. We show that global patterns of late-Pleistocene to late-Holocene precipitation isotope shifts are consistent with stronger-than-modern isotopic distillation of air masses during the last ice age, likely impacted by larger global temperature differences between the tropics and the poles.
E.-C. Chang and K. Yoshimura
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3247–3255, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3247-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3247-2015, 2015
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In this study, the non-iteration dimensional-split semi-Lagrangian (NDSL) advection scheme is applied to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM) to alleviate the Gibbs phenomenon. The model runs for the Fukushima accident case study suggest that the NDSL can successfully advect radioactive tracers (iodine-131 and cesium-137) without noise from the Gibbs phenomenon.
S. C. Lewis and A. N. LeGrande
Clim. Past, 11, 1347–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, 2015
V. Masson-Delmotte, H. C. Steen-Larsen, P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, T. Popp, B. M. Vinther, H. Oerter, A. E. Sveinbjornsdottir, H. Gudlaugsdottir, J. E. Box, S. Falourd, X. Fettweis, H. Gallée, E. Garnier, V. Gkinis, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, N. Paradis, A. Orsi, C. Risi, M. Werner, and J. W. C. White
The Cryosphere, 9, 1481–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, 2015
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The deep NEEM ice core provides the oldest Greenland ice core record, enabling improved understanding of the response of ice core records to local climate. Here, we focus on shallow ice cores providing a stack record of accumulation and water-stable isotopes spanning the past centuries. For the first time, we document the ongoing warming in a Greenland ice core. By combining our data with other Greenland ice cores and model results, we characterise the spatio-temporal patterns of variability.
R. Eichinger, P. Jöckel, S. Brinkop, M. Werner, and S. Lossow
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5537–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, 2015
A. Cauquoin, A. Landais, G. M. Raisbeck, J. Jouzel, L. Bazin, M. Kageyama, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, M. Werner, E. Bard, and ASTER Team
Clim. Past, 11, 355–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-355-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-355-2015, 2015
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We present a new 10Be record at EDC between 269 and 355ka. Our 10Be-based accumulation rate is in good agreement with the one associated with the EDC3 timescale except for the warm MIS 9.3 optimum. This suggests that temperature reconstruction from water isotopes may be underestimated by 2.4K for the difference between the MIS 9.3 and present day. The CMIP5-PMIP3 models do not quantitatively reproduce changes in precipitation vs. temperature increase during glacial–interglacial transitions.
N. V. Rokotyan, V. I. Zakharov, K. G. Gribanov, M. Schneider, F.-M. Bréon, J. Jouzel, R. Imasu, M. Werner, M. Butzin, C. Petri, T. Warneke, and J. Notholt
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2567–2580, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2567-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2567-2014, 2014
K. Rehfeld, N. Molkenthin, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 691–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-691-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-691-2014, 2014
L. Tupikina, K. Rehfeld, N. Molkenthin, V. Stolbova, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 705–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-705-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-705-2014, 2014
K. Gribanov, J. Jouzel, V. Bastrikov, J.-L. Bonne, F.-M. Breon, M. Butzin, O. Cattani, V. Masson-Delmotte, N. Rokotyan, M. Werner, and V. Zakharov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5943–5957, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5943-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5943-2014, 2014
M. Butzin, M. Werner, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, C. Frankenberg, K. Gribanov, J. Jouzel, and V. I. Zakharov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5853–5869, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5853-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5853-2014, 2014
N. Molkenthin, K. Rehfeld, V. Stolbova, L. Tupikina, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 651–657, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-651-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-651-2014, 2014
M. Berkelhammer, A. Sinha, M. Mudelsee, H. Cheng, K. Yoshimura, and J. Biswas
Clim. Past, 10, 733–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-733-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-733-2014, 2014
D. J. Ullman, A. N. LeGrande, A. E. Carlson, F. S. Anslow, and J. M. Licciardi
Clim. Past, 10, 487–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, 2014
E. Gasson, D. J. Lunt, R. DeConto, A. Goldner, M. Heinemann, M. Huber, A. N. LeGrande, D. Pollard, N. Sagoo, M. Siddall, A. Winguth, and P. J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 10, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-451-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-451-2014, 2014
G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 10, 221–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014
K. Rehfeld and J. Kurths
Clim. Past, 10, 107–122, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-107-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-107-2014, 2014
M. Pacton, S. F. M. Breitenbach, F. A. Lechleitner, A. Vaks, C. Rollion-Bard, O. S. Gutareva, A. V. Osintcev, and C. Vasconcelos
Biogeosciences, 10, 6115–6130, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6115-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6115-2013, 2013
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Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Centennial-Decadal
Using a process-based dendroclimatic proxy system model in a data assimilation framework: a test case in the Southern Hemisphere over the past centuries
Comparison of the oxygen isotope signatures in speleothem records and iHadCM3 model simulations for the last millennium
Long-term Surface Temperature (LoST) database as a complement for GCM preindustrial simulations
Inconsistencies between observed, reconstructed, and simulated precipitation indices for England since the year 1650 CE
Testing the consistency between changes in simulated climate and Alpine glacier length over the past millennium
Temperature variability in the Iberian Range since 1602 inferred from tree-ring records
North American regional climate reconstruction from ground surface temperature histories
Comparison of simulated and reconstructed variations in East African hydroclimate over the last millennium
Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 3: Practical considerations, relaxed assumptions, and using tree-ring data to address the amplitude of solar forcing
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
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Using statistical tree-growth proxy system models in the data assimilation framework may have limitations. In this study, we successfully incorporate the process-based dendroclimatic model MAIDEN into a data assimilation procedure to robustly compare the outputs of an Earth system model with tree-ring width observations. Important steps are made to demonstrate that using MAIDEN as a proxy system model is a promising way to improve large-scale climate reconstructions with data assimilation.
Janica C. Bühler, Carla Roesch, Moritz Kirschner, Louise Sime, Max D. Holloway, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 17, 985–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, 2021
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We present three new isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium (850–1850 CE) and compare them to records from a global speleothem database. Offsets between the simulated and measured oxygen isotope ratios are fairly small. While modeled oxygen isotope ratios are more variable on decadal timescales, proxy records are more variable on (multi-)centennial timescales. This could be due to a lack of long-term variability in complex model simulations, but proxy biases cannot be excluded.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, Eduardo Zorita, and Fernando Jaume-Santero
Clim. Past, 15, 1099–1111, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019, 2019
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A database of North American long-term ground surface temperatures, from approximately 1300 CE to 1700 CE, was assembled from geothermal data. These temperatures are useful for studying the future stability of permafrost, as well as for evaluating simulations of preindustrial climate that may help to improve estimates of climate models’ equilibrium climate sensitivity. The database will be made available to the climate science community.
Oliver Bothe, Sebastian Wagner, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 15, 307–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019, 2019
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Our understanding of future climate changes increases if different sources of information agree on past climate variations. Changing climates particularly impact local scales for which future changes in precipitation are highly uncertain. Here, we use information from observations, model simulations, and climate reconstructions for regional precipitation over the British Isles. We find these do not agree well on precipitation variations over the past few centuries.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
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Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Ernesto Tejedor, Miguel Ángel Saz, José María Cuadrat, Jan Esper, and Martín de Luis
Clim. Past, 13, 93–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-93-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-93-2017, 2017
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Through this study, and inferred from 316 series of tree-ring width, we developed a maximum temperature reconstruction that is significant for much of the Iberian Peninsula (IP). This reconstruction will not only help to understand the past climate of the IP but also serve to improve future climate change scenarios particularly affecting the Mediterranean area.
Fernando Jaume-Santero, Carolyne Pickler, Hugo Beltrami, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 2181–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, 2016
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Within the framework of the PAGES NAm2k project, we estimated regional trends in the ground surface temperature change for the past 500 years in North America. The mean North American ground surface temperature history suggests a warming of 1.8 °C between preindustrial times and 2000. A regional analysis of mean temperature changes over the last 5 centuries shows that all regions experienced warming, but this warming displays large spatial variability and is more marked in high-latitude regions.
François Klein, Hugues Goosse, Nicholas E. Graham, and Dirk Verschuren
Clim. Past, 12, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, 2016
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This paper analyses global climate model simulations of long-term East African hydroclimate changes relative to proxy-based reconstructions over the last millennium. No common signal is found between model results and reconstructions as well as among the model time series, which suggests that simulated hydroclimate is mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing.
A. Moberg, R. Sundberg, H. Grudd, and A. Hind
Clim. Past, 11, 425–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-425-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-425-2015, 2015
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Experiments with climate models can help to understand causes of past climate changes. We develop a statistical framework for comparing data from simulation experiments with temperature reconstructions for the last millennium. A combination of several external factors is found to explain a significant part of the observed variations, but our selection of data cannot tell which of two alternative choices of past solar forcing gives the best fit between simulations and reconstructions.
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Short summary
We collected and standardized the output of five isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium and assess differences and similarities to records from a global speleothem database. Modeled isotope variations mostly arise from temperature differences. While lower-resolution speleothems do not capture extreme changes to the extent of models, they show higher variability on multi-decadal timescales. As no model excels in all comparisons, we advise a multi-model approach where possible.
We collected and standardized the output of five isotope-enabled simulations for the last...
