Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1483-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1483-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Deep ocean temperatures through time
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8
1SS, UK
Invited contribution by Paul J. Valdes, recipient of the EGU Milutin Milankovic Medal 2015.
Christopher R. Scotese
Northwestern University, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Evanston, IL, USA
Daniel J. Lunt
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8
1SS, UK
Related authors
Takashi Obase, Laurie Menviel, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Tristan Vadsaria, Ruza Ivanovic, Brooke Snoll, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Paul J. Valdes, Lauren Gregoire, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Roche, Fanny Lhardy, Chengfei He, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Zhengyu Liu, and Wing-Le Chan
Clim. Past, 21, 1443–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses transient simulations of the last deglaciation performed by six climate models to understand the processes driving high-southern-latitude temperature changes. We find that atmospheric CO2 and AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) changes are the primary drivers of the warming and cooling during the middle stage of the deglaciation. The analysis highlights the model's sensitivity of CO2 and AMOC to meltwater and the meltwater history of temperature changes at high southern latitudes.
Loïc Sablon, Pierre Maffre, Yves Goddéris, Paul J. Valdes, Justin Gérard, Jarno J. C. Huygh, Anne-Christine Da Silva, and Michel Crucifix
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1696, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an innovative climate modelling framework that combines statistical methods with climate simulations to study Earth's environmental systems. The model captures how orbital changes and carbon dioxide levels influence climate atmospheric dynamics, offering a detailed and efficient way to explore long-term processes. This tool provides new opportunities to investigate Earth's climate history and its implications for future changes.
Elisa Ziegler, Nils Weitzel, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lauren Gregoire, Ruza Ivanovic, Paul J. Valdes, Christian Wirths, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 21, 627–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-627-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
During the Last Deglaciation, global surface temperature rose by about 4–7 °C over several millennia. We show that changes in year-to-year up to century-to-century fluctuations of temperature and precipitation during the Deglaciation were mostly larger than during either the preceding or succeeding more stable periods in 15 climate model simulations. The analysis demonstrates how ice sheets, meltwater, and volcanism influence simulated variability to inform future simulation protocols.
Alison J. McLaren, Louise C. Sime, Simon Wilson, Jeff Ridley, Qinggang Gao, Merve Gorguner, Giorgia Line, Martin Werner, and Paul Valdes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a new development in a state-of-the-art computer atmosphere model, which follows the movement of the model’s water. This provides an efficient way to track all the model’s rain and snow back to the average location of the evaporative source as shown in a present-day simulation. The new scheme can be used in simulations of the future to predict how the sources of regional rain or snowfall may change due to human actions, providing useful information for water management purposes.
Yixuan Xie, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 2561–2585, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2561-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust plays a crucial role in the climate system; while it is relatively well studied for the present day, we still lack knowledge on how it was in the past and on its underlying mechanism in the multi-million-year timescale of Earth’s history. For the first time, we simulate dust emissions using the newly developed DUSTY1.0 model over the past 540 million years with a temporal resolution of ~5 million years. We find that palaeogeography is the primary control of these variations.
Violet L. Patterson, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Owen, Robin S. Smith, Oliver G. Pollard, Lachlan C. Astfalck, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 2191–2218, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations of the last two glacial periods are run using a computer model in which the atmosphere and ice sheets interact. The results show that the initial conditions used in the simulations are the primary reason for the difference in simulated North American ice sheet volume between each period. Thus, the climate leading up to the glacial maxima and other factors, such as vegetation, are important contributors to the differences in the ice sheets at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima.
Brooke Snoll, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Laurie Menviel, Takashi Obase, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Chengfei He, Feng He, Marie Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Juan Muglia, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 789–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Geological records show rapid climate change throughout the recent deglaciation. The drivers of these changes are still misunderstood but are often attributed to shifts in the Atlantic Ocean circulation from meltwater input. A cumulative effort to understand these processes prompted numerous simulations of this period. We use these to explain the chain of events and our collective ability to simulate them. The results demonstrate the importance of the meltwater amount used in the simulation.
Caitlyn R. Witkowski, Vittoria Lauretano, Alex Farnsworth, Shufeng Li, Shi-Hu Li, Jan Peter Mayser, B. David A. Naafs, Robert A. Spicer, Tao Su, He Tang, Zhe-Kun Zhou, Paul J. Valdes, and Richard D. Pancost
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-373, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Untangling the complex tectonic evolution in the Tibetan region can help us understand its impacts on climate, the Asian monsoon system, and the development of major biodiversity hotspots. We show that this “missing link” site between high elevation Tibet and low elevation coastal China had a dynamic environment but no temperature change, meaning its been at its current-day elevation for the past 34 million years.
Suzanne Robinson, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, Julia Tindall, Tina van de Flierdt, Yves Plancherel, Frerk Pöppelmeier, Kazuyo Tachikawa, and Paul J. Valdes
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1231–1264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1231-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1231-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the implementation of neodymium (Nd) isotopes into the ocean model of FAMOUS (Nd v1.0). Nd fluxes from seafloor sediment and incorporation of Nd onto sinking particles represent the major global sources and sinks, respectively. However, model–data mismatch in the North Pacific and northern North Atlantic suggest that certain reactive components of the sediment interact the most with seawater. Our results are important for interpreting Nd isotopes in terms of ocean circulation.
Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Nathan Steiger, Sylvia Dee, Chris Hancock, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 18, 2599–2629, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To look at climate over the past 12 000 years, we reconstruct spatial temperature using natural climate archives and information from model simulations. Our results show mild global mean warmth around 6000 years ago, which differs somewhat from past reconstructions. Undiagnosed seasonal biases in the data could explain some of the observed temperature change, but this still would not explain the large difference between many reconstructions and climate models over this period.
Daniel J. Lunt, Deepak Chandan, Alan M. Haywood, George M. Lunt, Jonathan C. Rougier, Ulrich Salzmann, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Paul J. Valdes
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4307–4317, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4307-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Often in science we carry out experiments with computers in which several factors are explored, for example, in the field of climate science, how the factors of greenhouse gases, ice, and vegetation affect temperature. We can explore the relative importance of these factors by
swapping in and outdifferent values of these factors, and can also carry out experiments with many different combinations of these factors. This paper discusses how best to analyse the results from such experiments.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Daniel J. Lunt, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, David K. Hutchinson, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Polina Morozova, Igor Niezgodzki, Sebastian Steinig, Zhongshi Zhang, Jiang Zhu, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Eleni Anagnostou, Agatha M. de Boer, Helen K. Coxall, Yannick Donnadieu, Gavin Foster, Gordon N. Inglis, Gregor Knorr, Petra M. Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Gerrit Lohmann, Christopher J. Poulsen, Pierre Sepulchre, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny M. Volodin, Tom Dunkley Jones, Christopher J. Hollis, Matthew Huber, and Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 17, 203–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the first modelling results from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP), in which we focus on the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO, 50 million years ago). We show that, in contrast to previous work, at least three models (CESM, GFDL, and NorESM) produce climate states that are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature and polar amplification, and they achieve this at a CO2 concentration that is consistent with the CO2 proxy record.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, Paul J. Valdes, and Julia C. Tindall
Clim. Past, 16, 2485–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, 2020
Takashi Obase, Laurie Menviel, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Tristan Vadsaria, Ruza Ivanovic, Brooke Snoll, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Paul J. Valdes, Lauren Gregoire, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Roche, Fanny Lhardy, Chengfei He, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Zhengyu Liu, and Wing-Le Chan
Clim. Past, 21, 1443–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses transient simulations of the last deglaciation performed by six climate models to understand the processes driving high-southern-latitude temperature changes. We find that atmospheric CO2 and AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) changes are the primary drivers of the warming and cooling during the middle stage of the deglaciation. The analysis highlights the model's sensitivity of CO2 and AMOC to meltwater and the meltwater history of temperature changes at high southern latitudes.
Amar Mistry, Dan Lunt, and Xin Ren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2750, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is melting and adding fresh water into the Southern Ocean, affecting the global climate system. Here, we conduct model experiments in which water is input into the Southern Ocean. We find a significant response of the climate system to this meltwater; however, the manner in which the Antarctic Ice Sheet loses mass does not strongly control this response. The implications are that Antarctic meltwater should be included in future climate model projections.
Loïc Sablon, Pierre Maffre, Yves Goddéris, Paul J. Valdes, Justin Gérard, Jarno J. C. Huygh, Anne-Christine Da Silva, and Michel Crucifix
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1696, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an innovative climate modelling framework that combines statistical methods with climate simulations to study Earth's environmental systems. The model captures how orbital changes and carbon dioxide levels influence climate atmospheric dynamics, offering a detailed and efficient way to explore long-term processes. This tool provides new opportunities to investigate Earth's climate history and its implications for future changes.
Elisa Ziegler, Nils Weitzel, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lauren Gregoire, Ruza Ivanovic, Paul J. Valdes, Christian Wirths, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 21, 627–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-627-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
During the Last Deglaciation, global surface temperature rose by about 4–7 °C over several millennia. We show that changes in year-to-year up to century-to-century fluctuations of temperature and precipitation during the Deglaciation were mostly larger than during either the preceding or succeeding more stable periods in 15 climate model simulations. The analysis demonstrates how ice sheets, meltwater, and volcanism influence simulated variability to inform future simulation protocols.
Alison J. McLaren, Louise C. Sime, Simon Wilson, Jeff Ridley, Qinggang Gao, Merve Gorguner, Giorgia Line, Martin Werner, and Paul Valdes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a new development in a state-of-the-art computer atmosphere model, which follows the movement of the model’s water. This provides an efficient way to track all the model’s rain and snow back to the average location of the evaporative source as shown in a present-day simulation. The new scheme can be used in simulations of the future to predict how the sources of regional rain or snowfall may change due to human actions, providing useful information for water management purposes.
Johan Liakka, Natalie S. Lord, Alan Kennedy-Asser, Daniel J. Lunt, Charles J. R. Williams, and Jens-Ove Näslund
Adv. Geosci., 65, 71–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-65-71-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-65-71-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future glaciations can affect the long-term safety of deep geological repositories for nuclear waste. This study introduces a simple method to assess frequency and duration of ice sheets over the next one million years at locations with past glaciations. The method considers uncertainties in human-caused CO2 emissions and climate change. It is easy to implement for any nuclear waste management organization that need to consider impacts of future ice sheets on long-term safety.
Yixuan Xie, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 2561–2585, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2561-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust plays a crucial role in the climate system; while it is relatively well studied for the present day, we still lack knowledge on how it was in the past and on its underlying mechanism in the multi-million-year timescale of Earth’s history. For the first time, we simulate dust emissions using the newly developed DUSTY1.0 model over the past 540 million years with a temporal resolution of ~5 million years. We find that palaeogeography is the primary control of these variations.
Violet L. Patterson, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Owen, Robin S. Smith, Oliver G. Pollard, Lachlan C. Astfalck, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 2191–2218, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations of the last two glacial periods are run using a computer model in which the atmosphere and ice sheets interact. The results show that the initial conditions used in the simulations are the primary reason for the difference in simulated North American ice sheet volume between each period. Thus, the climate leading up to the glacial maxima and other factors, such as vegetation, are important contributors to the differences in the ice sheets at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima.
Nick R. Hayes, Daniel J. Lunt, Yves Goddéris, Richard D. Pancost, and Heather L. Buss
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2811, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The breakdown of volcanic rocks by water helps balance the climate of the earth by sequestering atmospheric CO2 . The rate of CO2 sequestration is referred to as "weatherability". Our modelling study finds that continental position strongly impacts CO2 concentrations, that runoff strongly controls weatherability, that changes in weatherability may explain long term trends in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and that even relatively localised changes in weatherability may have global impacts.
Brooke Snoll, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Laurie Menviel, Takashi Obase, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Chengfei He, Feng He, Marie Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Juan Muglia, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 789–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Geological records show rapid climate change throughout the recent deglaciation. The drivers of these changes are still misunderstood but are often attributed to shifts in the Atlantic Ocean circulation from meltwater input. A cumulative effort to understand these processes prompted numerous simulations of this period. We use these to explain the chain of events and our collective ability to simulate them. The results demonstrate the importance of the meltwater amount used in the simulation.
Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Stephen Hunter, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood
Clim. Past, 19, 2053–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the Maritime Continent climate in the mid-Piacenzian warm period and find it is warmer and wetter and the sea surface salinity is lower compared with preindustrial period. Besides, the fresh and warm water transfer through the Maritime Continent was stronger. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models in the multimodel results, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean, which could reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the multimodel mean.
Caitlyn R. Witkowski, Vittoria Lauretano, Alex Farnsworth, Shufeng Li, Shi-Hu Li, Jan Peter Mayser, B. David A. Naafs, Robert A. Spicer, Tao Su, He Tang, Zhe-Kun Zhou, Paul J. Valdes, and Richard D. Pancost
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-373, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Untangling the complex tectonic evolution in the Tibetan region can help us understand its impacts on climate, the Asian monsoon system, and the development of major biodiversity hotspots. We show that this “missing link” site between high elevation Tibet and low elevation coastal China had a dynamic environment but no temperature change, meaning its been at its current-day elevation for the past 34 million years.
Suzanne Robinson, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, Julia Tindall, Tina van de Flierdt, Yves Plancherel, Frerk Pöppelmeier, Kazuyo Tachikawa, and Paul J. Valdes
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1231–1264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1231-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1231-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the implementation of neodymium (Nd) isotopes into the ocean model of FAMOUS (Nd v1.0). Nd fluxes from seafloor sediment and incorporation of Nd onto sinking particles represent the major global sources and sinks, respectively. However, model–data mismatch in the North Pacific and northern North Atlantic suggest that certain reactive components of the sediment interact the most with seawater. Our results are important for interpreting Nd isotopes in terms of ocean circulation.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Zixuan Han, Alan M. Haywood, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the behavior of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Pliocene. The mid-Pliocene was about 3 million years ago and had a similar CO2 concentration to today. We show that the stronger AMOC during this period relates to changes in geography and that this has a significant influence on ocean temperatures and heat transported northwards by the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the behavior of the mid-Pliocene AMOC can help us to learn more about our future climate.
Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Nathan Steiger, Sylvia Dee, Chris Hancock, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 18, 2599–2629, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To look at climate over the past 12 000 years, we reconstruct spatial temperature using natural climate archives and information from model simulations. Our results show mild global mean warmth around 6000 years ago, which differs somewhat from past reconstructions. Undiagnosed seasonal biases in the data could explain some of the observed temperature change, but this still would not explain the large difference between many reconstructions and climate models over this period.
Zixuan Han, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Nan Rosenbloom, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Jianbo Cheng, Qin Wen, and Natalie J. Burls
Clim. Past, 17, 2537–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the potential processes responsible for large-scale hydrological cycle changes in a warmer climate is of great importance. Our study implies that an imbalance in interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate cycling. Moreover, a robust westward shift in the Pacific Walker circulation can moisten the northern Indian Ocean.
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
Katherine A. Crichton, Andy Ridgwell, Daniel J. Lunt, Alex Farnsworth, and Paul N. Pearson
Clim. Past, 17, 2223–2254, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2223-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2223-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The middle Miocene (15 Ma) was a period of global warmth up to 8 °C warmer than present. We investigate changes in ocean circulation and heat distribution since the middle Miocene and the cooling to the present using the cGENIE Earth system model. We create seven time slices at ~2.5 Myr intervals, constrained with paleo-proxy data, showing a progressive reduction in atmospheric CO2 and a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
Charles J. R. Williams, Alistair A. Sellar, Xin Ren, Alan M. Haywood, Peter Hopcroft, Stephen J. Hunter, William H. G. Roberts, Robin S. Smith, Emma J. Stone, Julia C. Tindall, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 17, 2139–2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from a simulation of the mid-Pliocene (approximately 3 million years ago) using the latest version of the UK’s climate model. The simulation reproduces temperatures as expected and shows some improvement relative to previous versions of the same model. The simulation is, however, arguably too warm when compared to other models and available observations.
Ellen Berntell, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, William Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Esther C. Brady
Clim. Past, 17, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3.2 Ma) is often considered an analogue for near-future climate projections, and model results from the PlioMIP2 ensemble show an increase of rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region compared to pre-industrial conditions. Though previous studies of future projections show a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, these results indicate a uniform rainfall increase over the Sahel in warm climates characterized by increased greenhouse gas forcing.
Daniel J. Lunt, Deepak Chandan, Alan M. Haywood, George M. Lunt, Jonathan C. Rougier, Ulrich Salzmann, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Paul J. Valdes
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4307–4317, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4307-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Often in science we carry out experiments with computers in which several factors are explored, for example, in the field of climate science, how the factors of greenhouse gases, ice, and vegetation affect temperature. We can explore the relative importance of these factors by
swapping in and outdifferent values of these factors, and can also carry out experiments with many different combinations of these factors. This paper discusses how best to analyse the results from such experiments.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Odd Helge Otterå, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther Brady, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Julia E. Weiffenbach, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Julia C. Tindall, Charles Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Wing-Le Chan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 17, 529–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important topic in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project. Previous studies have suggested a much stronger AMOC during the Pliocene than today. However, our current multi-model intercomparison shows large model spreads and model–data discrepancies, which can not support the previous hypothesis. Our study shows good consistency with future projections of the AMOC.
David K. Hutchinson, Helen K. Coxall, Daniel J. Lunt, Margret Steinthorsdottir, Agatha M. de Boer, Michiel Baatsen, Anna von der Heydt, Matthew Huber, Alan T. Kennedy-Asser, Lutz Kunzmann, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Caroline H. Lear, Karolin Moraweck, Paul N. Pearson, Emanuela Piga, Matthew J. Pound, Ulrich Salzmann, Howie D. Scher, Willem P. Sijp, Kasia K. Śliwińska, Paul A. Wilson, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 269–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-269-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-269-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Eocene–Oligocene transition was a major climate cooling event from a largely ice-free world to the first major glaciation of Antarctica, approximately 34 million years ago. This paper reviews observed changes in temperature, CO2 and ice sheets from marine and land-based records at this time. We present a new model–data comparison of this transition and find that CO2-forced cooling provides the best explanation of the observed global temperature changes.
Daniel J. Lunt, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, David K. Hutchinson, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Polina Morozova, Igor Niezgodzki, Sebastian Steinig, Zhongshi Zhang, Jiang Zhu, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Eleni Anagnostou, Agatha M. de Boer, Helen K. Coxall, Yannick Donnadieu, Gavin Foster, Gordon N. Inglis, Gregor Knorr, Petra M. Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Gerrit Lohmann, Christopher J. Poulsen, Pierre Sepulchre, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny M. Volodin, Tom Dunkley Jones, Christopher J. Hollis, Matthew Huber, and Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 17, 203–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the first modelling results from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP), in which we focus on the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO, 50 million years ago). We show that, in contrast to previous work, at least three models (CESM, GFDL, and NorESM) produce climate states that are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature and polar amplification, and they achieve this at a CO2 concentration that is consistent with the CO2 proxy record.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, Paul J. Valdes, and Julia C. Tindall
Clim. Past, 16, 2485–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, 2020
Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Harry J. Dowsett, Aisling M. Dolan, Kevin M. Foley, Stephen J. Hunter, Daniel J. Hill, Wing-Le Chan, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Youichi Kamae, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Esther C. Brady, Anna S. von der Heydt, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 16, 2095–2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The large-scale features of middle Pliocene climate from the 16 models of PlioMIP Phase 2 are presented. The PlioMIP2 ensemble average was ~ 3.2 °C warmer and experienced ~ 7 % more precipitation than the pre-industrial era, although there are large regional variations. PlioMIP2 broadly agrees with a new proxy dataset of Pliocene sea surface temperatures. Combining PlioMIP2 and proxy data suggests that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would increase globally averaged temperature by 2.6–4.8 °C.
Gordon N. Inglis, Fran Bragg, Natalie J. Burls, Marlow Julius Cramwinckel, David Evans, Gavin L. Foster, Matthew Huber, Daniel J. Lunt, Nicholas Siler, Sebastian Steinig, Jessica E. Tierney, Richard Wilkinson, Eleni Anagnostou, Agatha M. de Boer, Tom Dunkley Jones, Kirsty M. Edgar, Christopher J. Hollis, David K. Hutchinson, and Richard D. Pancost
Clim. Past, 16, 1953–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1953-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1953-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents estimates of global mean surface temperatures and climate sensitivity during the early Paleogene (∼57–48 Ma). We employ a multi-method experimental approach and show that i) global mean surface temperatures range between 27 and 32°C and that ii) estimates of
bulkequilibrium climate sensitivity (∼3 to 4.5°C) fall within the range predicted by the IPCC AR5 Report. This work improves our understanding of two key climate metrics during the early Paleogene.
Cited articles
Alexeev, V. A., Langen, P. L., and Bates, J. R.: Polar amplification of
surface warming on an aquaplanet in “ghost forcing” experiments without sea
ice feedbacks, Clim. Dynam., 24, 655–666, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0018-3, 2005.
Baatsen, M., van Hinsbergen, D. J. J., von der Heydt, A. S., Dijkstra, H. A., Sluijs, A., Abels, H. A., and Bijl, P. K.: Reconstructing geographical boundary conditions for palaeoclimate modelling during the Cenozoic, Clim. Past, 12, 1635–1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1635-2016, 2016.
Baatsen, M. L. J., von der Heydt, A. S., Kliphuis, M., Viebahn, J., and
Dijkstra, H. A.: Multiple states in the late Eocene ocean circulation, Global
Planet. Change, 163, 18–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.02.009, 2018.
Barron, E. J. and Peterson, W. H.: mid-cretaceous ocean circulation: results
from model sensitivity studies, Paleoceanography, 5, 319–337,
https://doi.org/10.1029/PA005i003p00319, 1990.
Beerling, D. J., Fox, A., Stevenson, D. S., and Valdes, P. J.: Enhanced
chemistry-climate feedbacks in past greenhouse worlds, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 9770–9775, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1102409108, 2011.
Bjerknes, J.: Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction, Adv. Geophys., 10, 1–82, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2687(08)60005-9, 1964.
Brass, G. W., Southam, J. R., and Peterson, W. H.: Warm Saline Bottom Water
in the Ancient Ocean, Nature, 296, 620–623,https://doi.org/10.1038/296620a0, 1982.
Cramer, B. S., Toggweiler, J. R., Wright, J. D., Katz, M. E., and Miller, K.
G.: Ocean overturning since the Late Cretaceous: Inferences from a new
benthic foraminiferal isotope compilation, Paleoceanography, 24, PA4216, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008PA001683, 2009.
Cramwinckel, M. J., Huber, M., Kocken, I. J., Agnini, C., Bijl, P. K.,
Bohaty, S. M., Frieling, J., Goldner, A., Hilgen, F. J., Kip, E. L.,
Peterse, F., van der Ploeg, R., Rohl, U., Schouten, S., and Sluijs, A.:
Synchronous tropical and polar temperature evolution in the Eocene, Nature,
559, 382–386, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0272-2, 2018.
Dietmuller, S., Ponater, M., and Sausen, R.: Interactive ozone induces a
negative feedback in CO2-driven climate change simulations, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 119, 1796–1805, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013jd020575, 2014.
Donnadieu, Y., Puceat, E., Moiroud, M., Guillocheau, F., and Deconinck, J.
F.: A better-ventilated ocean triggered by Late Cretaceous changes in
continental configuration, Nat. Commun., 7, 10316, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10316, 2016.
Emiliani, C.: Temperatures of Pacific Bottom Waters and Polar Superficial
Waters during the Tertiary, Science, 119, 853–855, 1954.
England, M. H.: The Age Of Water And Ventilation Timescales In A Global
Ocean Model, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 25, 2756–2777,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1995)025<2756:TAOWAV>2.0.CO;2, 1995.
Farnsworth, A., Lunt, D. J., O'Brien, C. L., Foster, G. L., Inglis, G. N.,
Markwick, P., Pancost, R. D., and Robinson, S. A.: Climate Sensitivity on
Geological Timescales Controlled by Nonlinear Feedbacks and Ocean
Circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 9880–9889, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl083574,
2019a.
Farnsworth, A., Lunt, D. J., Robinson, S. A., Valdes, P. J., Roberts, W. H.
G., Clift, P. D., Markwick, P., Su, T., Wrobel, N., Bragg, F., Kelland, S.
J., and Pancost, R. D.: Past East Asian monsoon evolution controlled by
paleogeography, not CO2, Sci Adv, 5, eaax1697, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax1697, 2019b.
Foster, G. L., Royer, D. L., and Lunt, D. J.: Future climate forcing
potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years, Nat. Commun., 8,
14845, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14845, 2017.
Friedrich, O., Norris, R. D., and Erbacher, J.: Evolution of Cretaceous
oceans: A 55 million year record of Earth's temperature and carbon cycle,
Grzyb. Found. Spec. Pub., 17, 85–85, 2011.
Friedrich, O., Norris, R. D., and Erbacher, J.: Evolution of middle to Late
Cretaceous oceans–A 55 m.y. record of Earth's temperature and carbon cycle,
Geology, 40, 107–110, https://doi.org/10.1130/G32701.1, 2012.
Goldner, A., Herold, N., and Huber, M.: The challenge of simulating the warmth of the mid-Miocene climatic optimum in CESM1, Clim. Past, 10, 523–536, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-523-2014, 2014.
Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C. A., Banks, H., Gregory, J. M., Johns, T.
C., Mitchell, J. F. B., and Wood, R. A.: The simulation of SST, sea ice
extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled
model without flux adjustments, Clim. Dynam., 16, 147–168, 2000.
Gough, D. O.: Solar Interior Structure and Luminosity Variations, Sol. Phys.,
74, 21–34, https://doi.org/10.1007/Bf00151270, 1981.
Gregory, J. M., Ingram, W. J., Palmer, M. A., Jones, G. S., Stott, P. A.,
Thorpe, R. B., Lowe, J. A., Johns, T. C., and Williams, K. D.: A new method
for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 31, L03205, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gl018747, 2004.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Russell, G., and Kharecha, P.: Climate sensitivity,
sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 371,
20120294, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0294, 2013.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., Beerling, D., Berner, R.,
Masson-Delmotte, V., Pagani, M., Raymo, M., Royer, D. L., and Zachos, J. C.:
Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?, Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2,
217–231, https://doi.org/10.2174/1874282300802010217, 2008.
Hansen, J. E. and Sato, M.: Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change, in: Climate Change, edited by: Berger, A., Mesinger, F., and Sijacki, D., Springer, Vienna, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_2, 21–47, 2012.
Hardiman, S. C., Andrews, M. B., Andrews, T., Bushell, A. C., Dunstone, N.
J., Dyson, H., Jones, G. S., Knight, J. R., Neininger, E., O'Connor, F. M.,
Ridley, J. K., Ringer, M. A., Scaife, A. A., Senior, C. A., and Wood, R. A.:
The Impact of Prescribed Ozone in Climate Projections Run With
HadGEM3-GC3.1, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 3443–3453, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001714, 2019.
Harris, J., Ashley, A., Otto, S., Valdes, P., Crossley, R., Preston, R.,
Watson, J., Goodrich, M., and Team., M. P.: Paleogeography and Paleo-Earth
Systems in the Modeling of Marine Paleoproductivity: A Prerequisite for the
Prediction of Petroleum Source Rocks, in: Petroleum Systems Analysis – Case
Studies, edited by: AbuAli, M. A., Moretti, I., and Nordgård Bolås, H. M., AAPG Memoir, 27–60, https://doi.org/10.1190/ice2015-2210991, 2017.
Henkes, G. A., Passey, B. H., Grossman, E. L., Shenton, B. J., Yancey, T.
E., and Perez-Huerta, A.: Temperature evolution and the oxygen isotope
composition of Phanerozoic oceans from carbonate clumped isotope
thermometry, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 490, 40–50, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2018.02.001, 2018.
Holland, M. M. and Bitz, C. M.: Polar amplification of climate change in
coupled models, Clim. Dynam., 21, 221–232, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0332-6, 2003.
Kageyama, M., Albani, S., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Hopcroft, P. O., Ivanovic, R. F., Lambert, F., Marti, O., Peltier, W. R., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Roche, D. M., Tarasov, L., Zhang, X., Brady, E. C., Haywood, A. M., LeGrande, A. N., Lunt, D. J., Mahowald, N. M., Mikolajewicz, U., Nisancioglu, K. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Renssen, H., Tomas, R. A., Zhang, Q., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bartlein, P. J., Cao, J., Li, Q., Lohmann, G., Ohgaito, R., Shi, X., Volodin, E., Yoshida, K., Zhang, X., and Zheng, W.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 4: Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017.
Kennett, J. P. and Stott, L. D.: Abrupt Deep-Sea Warming, Palaeoceanographic
Changes and Benthic Extinctions at the End of the Paleocene, Nature, 353,
225–229, https://doi.org/10.1038/353225a0, 1991.
Kiehl, J. T. and Shields, C. A.: Sensitivity of the Palaeocene-Eocene
Thermal Maximum climate to cloud properties, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 371,
20130093, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0093, 2013.
Knorr, G., Butzin, M., Micheels, A., and Lohmann, G.: A warm Miocene climate
at low atmospheric CO2 levels, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L20701,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl048873, 2011.
Krapp, M. and Jungclaus, J. H.: The Middle Miocene climate as modelled in an atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model, Clim. Past, 7, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1169-2011, 2011.
Ladant, J.-B., Poulsen, C. J., Fluteau, F., Tabor, C. R., MacLeod, K. G., Martin, E. E., Haynes, S. J., and Rostami, M. A.: Paleogeographic controls on the evolution of Late Cretaceous ocean circulation, Clim. Past, 16, 973–1006, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-973-2020, 2020.
Lunt, D. J., Valdes, P. J., Dunkley Jones, T., Ridgwell, A., Haywood, A. M.,
Schmidt, D. N., Marsh, R., and Maslin, M.: CO2-driven ocean circulation changes as an amplifier of Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum hydrate destabilization, Geology, 38, 875–878, https://doi.org/10.1130/G31184.1, 2010.
Lunt, D. J., Dunkley Jones, T., Heinemann, M., Huber, M., LeGrande, A., Winguth, A., Loptson, C., Marotzke, J., Roberts, C. D., Tindall, J., Valdes, P., and Winguth, C.: A model–data comparison for a multi-model ensemble of early Eocene atmosphere–ocean simulations: EoMIP, Clim. Past, 8, 1717–1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1717-2012, 2012.
Lunt, D. J., Farnsworth, A., Loptson, C., Foster, G. L., Markwick, P., O'Brien, C. L., Pancost, R. D., Robinson, S. A., and Wrobel, N.: Palaeogeographic controls on climate and proxy interpretation, Clim. Past, 12, 1181–1198, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1181-2016, 2016.
Lunt, D. J., Huber, M., Anagnostou, E., Baatsen, M. L. J., Caballero, R., DeConto, R., Dijkstra, H. A., Donnadieu, Y., Evans, D., Feng, R., Foster, G. L., Gasson, E., von der Heydt, A. S., Hollis, C. J., Inglis, G. N., Jones, S. M., Kiehl, J., Kirtland Turner, S., Korty, R. L., Kozdon, R., Krishnan, S., Ladant, J.-B., Langebroek, P., Lear, C. H., LeGrande, A. N., Littler, K., Markwick, P., Otto-Bliesner, B., Pearson, P., Poulsen, C. J., Salzmann, U., Shields, C., Snell, K., Stärz, M., Super, J., Tabor, C., Tierney, J. E., Tourte, G. J. L., Tripati, A., Upchurch, G. R., Wade, B. S., Wing, S. L., Winguth, A. M. E., Wright, N. M., Zachos, J. C., and Zeebe, R. E.: The DeepMIP contribution to PMIP4: experimental design for model simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 889–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, 2017.
Lunt, D. J., Bragg, F., Chan, W.-L., Hutchinson, D. K., Ladant, J.-B., Morozova, P., Niezgodzki, I., Steinig, S., Zhang, Z., Zhu, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Anagnostou, E., de Boer, A. M., Coxall, H. K., Donnadieu, Y., Foster, G., Inglis, G. N., Knorr, G., Langebroek, P. M., Lear, C. H., Lohmann, G., Poulsen, C. J., Sepulchre, P., Tierney, J. E., Valdes, P. J., Volodin, E. M., Dunkley Jones, T., Hollis, C. J., Huber, M., and Otto-Bliesner, B. L.: DeepMIP: model intercomparison of early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO) large-scale climate features and comparison with proxy data, Clim. Past, 17, 203–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, 2021.
Murphy, D. P. and Thomas, D. J.: Cretaceous deep-water formation in the
Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, Paleoceanography, 27, PA1211, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011pa002198, 2012.
Nowack, P. J., Abraham, N. L., Maycock, A. C., Braesicke, P., Gregory, J.
M., Joshi, M. M., Osprey, A., and Pyle, J. A.: A large ozone-circulation
feedback and its implications for global warming assessments, Nat. Clim.
Change, 5, 41–45, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2451, 2015.
Nunes, F. and Norris, R. D.: Abrupt reversal in ocean overturning during the
Palaeocene/Eocene warm period, Nature, 439, 60–63, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04386, 2006.
O'Brien, C. L., Robinson, S. A., Pancost, R. D., Damste, J. S. S., Schouten,
S., Lunt, D. J., Alsenz, H., Bomemann, A., Bottini, C., Brassell, S. C.,
Farnsworth, A., Forster, A., Huber, B. T., Inglis, G. N., Jenkyns, H. C.,
Linnert, C., Littler, K., Markwick, P., McAnena, A., Mutterlose, J., Naafs,
B. D. A., Puttmann, W., Sluijs, A., van Helmond, N. A. G. M., Vellekoop, J.,
Wagner, T., and Wrobel, N. E.: Cretaceous sea-surface temperature evolution:
Constraints from TEX86 and planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes,
Earth-Sci. Rev., 172, 224–247, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.07.012, 2017.
Outten, S., Esau, I., and Ottera, O. H.: Bjerknes Compensation in the CMIP5
Climate Models, J. Climate, 31, 8745–8760, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0058.1, 2018.
Pope, V. D., Gallani, M. L., Rowntree, P. R., and Stratton, R. A.: The
impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model:
HadAM3, Clim. Dynam., 16, 123–146, 2000.
Poulsen, C. J., Barron, E. J., Arthur, M. A., and Peterson, W. H.: Response
of the mid-Cretaceous global oceanic circulation to tectonic and CO2
forcings, Paleoceanography, 16, 576–592, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000pa000579, 2001.
Sagoo, N., Valdes, P., Flecker, R., and Gregoire, L. J.: The Early Eocene
equable climate problem: can perturbations of climate model parameters
identify possible solutions?, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 371, 20130123 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0123, 2013.
Scotese, C. R.: PALEOMAP PaleoAtlas for GPlates and the PaleoData Plotter Program, PALEOMAP Project, EarthByte, available at: https://www.earthbyte.org/paleomap-paleoatlas-for-gplates/ (last access: 30 June 2021), 2016.
Scotese, C. R. and Schettino, A.: Late Permian – Early Jurassic
Paleogeography of Western Tethys and the World, in: Permo-Triassic Salt
Provinces of Europe, North Africa and the Atlantic Margins, edited by: Soto,
J. I., Flinch, J., and Tari, G., Elsevier, 57–95, 2017.
Scotese, C. R. and Wright, N.: PALEOMAP Paleodigital Elevation MOdels (PaleoDEMS) for the Phanerozoic PALEOMAP Project, EarthByte, available at: https://www.earthbyte.org/paleodem-resource-scotese-and-wright-2018 (last access: 30 June 2021), 2018.
Smith, R. S., Gregory, J. M., and Osprey, A.: A description of the FAMOUS (version XDBUA) climate model and control run, Geosci. Model Dev., 1, 53–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-1-53-2008, 2008.
Song, H. J., Wignall, P. B., Song, H. Y., Dai, X., and Chu, D. L.: Seawater
Temperature and Dissolved Oxygen over the Past 500 Million Years, J. Earth
Sci., 30, 236–243, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12583-018-1002-2, 2019.
Steinthorsdottir, M., Coxall, H. K., de Boer, A. M., Huber, M., Barbolini, N., Bradshaw, C. D., Burls, N. J., Feakins, S. J., Gasson, E., Henderiks, J.,
Holbourn, A., Kiel, S., Kohn, M. J., Knorr, G., Kurschner, W. M., Lear, C. H., Liebrand, D., Lunt, D. J., Mors, T., Pearson, P. N., Pound, M. J., Stoll, H., and Stromberg, C. A. E.: The Miocene: the Future of the Past, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 36, e2020PA004037. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004037, 2021.
Stoll, H. M., Guitian, J., Hernandez-Almeida, I., Mejia, L. M., Phelps, S.,
Polissar, P., Rosenthal, Y., Zhang, H. R., and Ziveri, P.: Upregulation of
phytoplankton carbon concentrating mechanisms during low CO2 glacial periods and implications for the phytoplankton pCO2 proxy, Quat. Sci. Rev., 208, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.01.012, 2019.
Sutton, R. T., Dong, B. W., and Gregory, J. M.: Land/sea warming ratio in
response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with
observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl028164,
2007.
Upchurch, G. R., Kiehl, J., Shields, C., Scherer, J., and Scotese, C.:
Latitudinal temperature gradients and high-latitude temperatures during the
latest Cretaceous: Congruence of geologic data and climate models, Geology,
43, 683–686, https://doi.org/10.1130/G36802.1, 2015.
Valdes, P. J., Armstrong, E., Badger, M. P. S., Bradshaw, C. D., Bragg, F., Crucifix, M., Davies-Barnard, T., Day, J. J., Farnsworth, A., Gordon, C., Hopcroft, P. O., Kennedy, A. T., Lord, N. S., Lunt, D. J., Marzocchi, A., Parry, L. M., Pope, V., Roberts, W. H. G., Stone, E. J., Tourte, G. J. L., and Williams, J. H. T.: The BRIDGE HadCM3 family of climate models: HadCM3@Bristol v1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3715–3743, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3715-2017, 2017.
Valdes, P. J., Scotese, C. R., and Lunt, D. J.: Deep Ocean Temperatures through Time, Bristol Research Initiative for the Dynamic Global Environment (BRIDGE) [data set], available at:
https://www.paleo.bristol.ac.uk/ummodel/scripts/papers/Valdes_et_al_2021.html, last access: 30 June 2021.
Verard, C., Hochard, C., Baumgartner, P. O., and Stampfli, G. M.: 3D
palaeogeographic reconstructions of the Phanerozoic versus sea-level and
Sr-ratio variations, Journal of Palaeogeography, 4, 64–84,
https://doi.org/10.3724/Sp.J.1261.2015.00068, 2015.
Westerhold, T., Marwan, N., Drury, A. J., Liebrand, D., Agnini, C.,
Anagnostou, E., Barnet, J. S. K., Bohaty, S. M., De Vleeschouwer, D.,
Florindo, F., Frederichs, T., Hodell, D. A., Holbourn, A. E., Kroon, D.,
Lauretano, V., Littler, K., Lourens, L. J., Lyle, M., Pälike, H.,
Röhl, U., Tian, J., Wilkens, R. H., Wilson, P. A., and Zachos, J. C.: An
astronomically dated record of Earth's climate and its predictability over
the last 66 million years, Science, 369, 1383–1387, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba6853, 2020.
Witkowski, C. R., Weijers, J. W. H., Blais, B., Schouten, S., and Damste, J.
S. S.: Molecular fossils from phytoplankton reveal secular trend over the Phanerozoic, Sci. Adv., 4, eaat4556, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat4556, 2018.
You, Y., Huber, M., Muller, R. D., Poulsen, C. J., and Ribbe, J.: Simulation
of the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L04702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl036571, 2009.
Zachos, J., Pagani, M., Sloan, L., Thomas, E., and Billups, K.: Trends,
rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present, Science, 292,
686–693, 2001.
Zachos, J. C., Dickens, G. R., and Zeebe, R. E.: An early Cenozoic
perspective on greenhouse warming and carbon-cycle dynamics, Nature, 451,
279–283, https://doi.org/10.1038/Nature06588, 2008.
Zhou, J., Poulsen, C. J., Pollard, D., and White, T. S.: Simulation of
modern and middle Cretaceous marine δ18O with an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, Paleoceanography, 23, PA3223, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008pa001596, 2008.
Zhu, J., Poulsen, C. J., and Tierney, J. E.: Simulation of Eocene extreme
warmth and high climate sensitivity through cloud feedbacks, Sci. Adv., 5,
eaax1874, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax1874, 2019.
Download
- Article
(10308 KB) - Full-text XML
- EGU Milutin Milankovic Medal 2015
-
Supplement
(154848 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote
Short summary
Deep ocean temperatures are widely used as a proxy for global mean surface temperature in the past, but the underlying assumptions have not been tested. We use two unique sets of 109 climate model simulations for the last 545 million years to show that the relationship is valid for approximately the last 100 million years but breaks down for older time periods when the continents (and hence ocean circulation) are in very different positions.
Deep ocean temperatures are widely used as a proxy for global mean surface temperature in the...
Special issue