Articles | Volume 16, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-699-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-699-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Apr 2020
Research article |
| 06 Apr 2020
| 06 Apr 2020
A new multivariable benchmark for Last Glacial Maximum climate simulations
Department of Mathematics, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, UK
Sandy P. Harrison
School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science, University of
Reading, Whiteknights, Reading, RG6 6AH, UK
Nancy K. Nichols
Department of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Reading,
Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6AX, UK
I. Colin Prentice
AXA Chair in Biosphere and Climate Impacts, Department of Life Sciences,
Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot SL5 7PY,
UK
Ian Roulstone
Department of Mathematics, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, UK
Related authors
No articles found.
Fang Li, Xiang Song, Sandy P. Harrison, Jennifer R. Marlon, Zhongda Lin, L. Ruby Leung, Jörg Schwinger, Virginie Marécal, Shiyu Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Xiao Dong, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, and Roland Séférian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8751–8771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 Earth system models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most models reproduce global totals, spatial patterns, seasonality, and regional historical changes well but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire response to climate variability. CMIP6 simulations address three critical issues of phase-5 models.
Kieran M. R. Hunt and Sandy P. Harrison
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2128, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we train machine learning models on tree rings, speleothems, and instrumental rainfall to estimate seasonal monsoon rainfall over India over the last 500 years. Our models highlight multidecadal droughts in the mid-seventeenth and nineteenth centuries, and we link these to historical famines. Using techniques from explainable AI, we show our models use known relationships between local hydroclimate and the monsoon circulation.
Luke Fionn Sweeney, Sandy P. Harrison, and Marc Vander Linden
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1523, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in tree cover across Europe during the Holocene are reconstructed from fossil pollen data using a model developed with modern observations of tree cover and modern pollen assemblages. There is a rapid increase in tree cover after the last glacial with maximum cover during the mid-Holocene and a decline thereafter; the timing of the maximum and the speed of the increase and subsequent decrease vary regionally likely reflecting differences in climate trajectories and human influence.
David Sandoval, Iain Colin Prentice, and Rodolfo L. B. Nóbrega
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4229–4309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous estimates of water and energy balances depend on empirical equations requiring site-specific calibration, posing risks of "the right answers for the wrong reasons". We introduce novel first-principles formulations to calculate key quantities without requiring local calibration, matching predictions from complex land surface models.
Nikita Kaushal, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Micah Wilhelm, Khalil Azennoud, Janica C. Bühler, Kerstin Braun, Yassine Ait Brahim, Andy Baker, Yuval Burstyn, Laia Comas-Bru, Jens Fohlmeister, Yonaton Goldsmith, Sandy P. Harrison, István G. Hatvani, Kira Rehfeld, Magdalena Ritzau, Vanessa Skiba, Heather M. Stoll, József G. Szűcs, Péter Tanos, Pauline C. Treble, Vitor Azevedo, Jonathan L. Baker, Andrea Borsato, Sakonvan Chawchai, Andrea Columbu, Laura Endres, Jun Hu, Zoltán Kern, Alena Kimbrough, Koray Koç, Monika Markowska, Belen Martrat, Syed Masood Ahmad, Carole Nehme, Valdir Felipe Novello, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Jiaoyang Ruan, Natasha Sekhon, Nitesh Sinha, Carol V. Tadros, Benjamin H. Tiger, Sophie Warken, Annabel Wolf, Haiwei Zhang, and SISAL Working Group members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1933–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1933-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1933-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Speleothems are a popular, multi-proxy climate archive that provide regional to global insights into past hydroclimate trends with precise chronologies. We present an update to the SISAL (Speleothem Isotopes
Synthesis and AnaLysis) database, SISALv3, which, for the first time, contains speleothem trace element records, in addition to an update to the stable isotope records available in previous versions of the database, cumulatively providing data from 365 globally distributed sites.
Synthesis and AnaLysis) database, SISALv3, which, for the first time, contains speleothem trace element records, in addition to an update to the stable isotope records available in previous versions of the database, cumulatively providing data from 365 globally distributed sites.
Katie R. Blackford, Matthew Kasoar, Chantelle Burton, Eleanor Burke, Iain Colin Prentice, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3063–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Peatlands are globally important stores of carbon which are being increasingly threatened by wildfires with knock-on effects on the climate system. Here we introduce a novel peat fire parameterization in the northern high latitudes to the INFERNO global fire model. Representing peat fires increases annual burnt area across the high latitudes, alongside improvements in how we capture year-to-year variation in burning and emissions.
Mengmeng Liu, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-12, 2024
Preprint under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Dansgaard-Oeschger events were large and rapid warming events that occurred multiple times during the last ice age. We show that changes in the northern extratropics and the southern extratropics were anti-phased, with warming over most of the north and cooling in the south. The reconstructions do not provide evidence for a change in seasonality in temperature. However, they do indicate that warming was generally accompanied by wetter conditions and cooling by drier conditions.
Huiying Xu, Han Wang, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 20, 4511–4525, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Leaf carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) are crucial elements in leaf construction and physiological processes. This study reconciled the roles of phylogeny, species identity, and climate in stoichiometric traits at individual and community levels. The variations in community-level leaf N and C : N ratio were captured by optimality-based models using climate data. Our results provide an approach to improve the representation of leaf stoichiometry in vegetation models to better couple N with C cycling.
Esmeralda Cruz-Silva, Sandy P. Harrison, I. Colin Prentice, Elena Marinova, Patrick J. Bartlein, Hans Renssen, and Yurui Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 2093–2108, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2093-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examined 71 pollen records (12.3 ka to present) in the eastern Mediterranean, reconstructing climate changes. Over 9000 years, winters gradually warmed due to orbital factors. Summer temperatures peaked at 4.5–5 ka, likely declining because of ice sheets. Moisture increased post-11 kyr, remaining high from 10–6 kyr before a slow decrease. Climate models face challenges in replicating moisture transport.
Olivia Haas, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 20, 3981–3995, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the impact of CO2 and climate on global patterns of burnt area, fire size, and intensity under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions using three climate scenarios. Climate change alone did not produce the observed LGM reduction in burnt area, but low CO2 did through reducing vegetation productivity. Fire intensity was sensitive to CO2 but strongly affected by changes in atmospheric dryness. Low CO2 caused smaller fires; climate had the opposite effect except in the driest scenario.
Giulia Mengoli, Sandy P. Harrison, and I. Colin Prentice
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1261, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Soil water availability affects plant carbon uptake by reducing leaf area and/or by closing stomata, which reduces its efficiency. We present a new formulation of how climatic dryness reduces both maximum carbon uptake and the soil-moisture threshold below which it declines further. This formulation illustrates how plants adapt their water conservation strategy to thrive in dry climates, and is step towards a better representation of soil-moisture effects in climate models.
Mengmeng Liu, Yicheng Shen, Penelope González-Sampériz, Graciela Gil-Romera, Cajo J. F. ter Braak, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 19, 803–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-803-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed the Holocene climates in the Iberian Peninsula using a large pollen data set and found that the west–east moisture gradient was much flatter than today. We also found that the winter was much colder, which can be expected from the low winter insolation during the Holocene. However, summer temperature did not follow the trend of summer insolation, instead, it was strongly correlated with moisture.
Jing M. Chen, Rong Wang, Yihong Liu, Liming He, Holly Croft, Xiangzhong Luo, Han Wang, Nicholas G. Smith, Trevor F. Keenan, I. Colin Prentice, Yongguang Zhang, Weimin Ju, and Ning Dong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4077–4093, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4077-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Green leaves contain chlorophyll pigments that harvest light for photosynthesis and also emit chlorophyll fluorescence as a byproduct. Both chlorophyll pigments and fluorescence can be measured by Earth-orbiting satellite sensors. Here we demonstrate that leaf photosynthetic capacity can be reliably derived globally using these measurements. This new satellite-based information overcomes a bottleneck in global ecological research where such spatially explicit information is currently lacking.
Yicheng Shen, Luke Sweeney, Mengmeng Liu, Jose Antonio Lopez Saez, Sebastián Pérez-Díaz, Reyes Luelmo-Lautenschlaeger, Graciela Gil-Romera, Dana Hoefer, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Heike Schneider, I. Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 18, 1189–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1189-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1189-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a method to reconstruct burnt area using a relationship between pollen and charcoal abundances and the calibration of charcoal abundance using modern observations of burnt area. We use this method to reconstruct changes in burnt area over the past 12 000 years from sites in Iberia. We show that regional changes in burnt area reflect known changes in climate, with a high burnt area during warming intervals and low burnt area when the climate was cooler and/or wetter than today.
Sandy P. Harrison, Roberto Villegas-Diaz, Esmeralda Cruz-Silva, Daniel Gallagher, David Kesner, Paul Lincoln, Yicheng Shen, Luke Sweeney, Daniele Colombaroli, Adam Ali, Chéïma Barhoumi, Yves Bergeron, Tatiana Blyakharchuk, Přemysl Bobek, Richard Bradshaw, Jennifer L. Clear, Sambor Czerwiński, Anne-Laure Daniau, John Dodson, Kevin J. Edwards, Mary E. Edwards, Angelica Feurdean, David Foster, Konrad Gajewski, Mariusz Gałka, Michelle Garneau, Thomas Giesecke, Graciela Gil Romera, Martin P. Girardin, Dana Hoefer, Kangyou Huang, Jun Inoue, Eva Jamrichová, Nauris Jasiunas, Wenying Jiang, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Monika Karpińska-Kołaczek, Piotr Kołaczek, Niina Kuosmanen, Mariusz Lamentowicz, Martin Lavoie, Fang Li, Jianyong Li, Olga Lisitsyna, José Antonio López-Sáez, Reyes Luelmo-Lautenschlaeger, Gabriel Magnan, Eniko Katalin Magyari, Alekss Maksims, Katarzyna Marcisz, Elena Marinova, Jenn Marlon, Scott Mensing, Joanna Miroslaw-Grabowska, Wyatt Oswald, Sebastián Pérez-Díaz, Ramón Pérez-Obiol, Sanna Piilo, Anneli Poska, Xiaoguang Qin, Cécile C. Remy, Pierre J. H. Richard, Sakari Salonen, Naoko Sasaki, Hieke Schneider, William Shotyk, Migle Stancikaite, Dace Šteinberga, Normunds Stivrins, Hikaru Takahara, Zhihai Tan, Liva Trasune, Charles E. Umbanhowar, Minna Väliranta, Jüri Vassiljev, Xiayun Xiao, Qinghai Xu, Xin Xu, Edyta Zawisza, Yan Zhao, Zheng Zhou, and Jordan Paillard
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1109–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1109-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a new global data set of charcoal preserved in sediments that can be used to examine how fire regimes have changed during past millennia and to investigate what caused these changes. The individual records have been standardised, and new age models have been constructed to allow better comparison across sites. The data set contains 1681 records from 1477 sites worldwide.
Concetta Di Mauro, Renaud Hostache, Patrick Matgen, Ramona Pelich, Marco Chini, Peter Jan van Leeuwen, Nancy K. Nichols, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4081–4097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4081-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4081-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates how the sequential assimilation of flood extent derived from synthetic aperture radar data can help improve flood forecasting. In particular, we carried out twin experiments based on a synthetically generated dataset with controlled uncertainty. Our empirical results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed data assimilation framework, as forecasting errors are substantially reduced as a result of the assimilation.
Alexander Kuhn-Régnier, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Peer Nowack, Matthias Forkel, I. Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 18, 3861–3879, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3861-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3861-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Along with current climate, vegetation, and human influences, long-term accumulation of biomass affects fires. Here, we find that including the influence of antecedent vegetation and moisture improves our ability to predict global burnt area. Additionally, the length of the preceding period which needs to be considered for accurate predictions varies across regions.
Sarah E. Parker, Sandy P. Harrison, Laia Comas-Bru, Nikita Kaushal, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 1119–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional trends in the oxygen isotope (δ18O) composition of stalagmites reflect several climate processes. We compare stalagmite δ18O records from monsoon regions and model simulations to identify the causes of δ18O variability over the last 12 000 years, and between glacial and interglacial states. Precipitation changes explain the glacial–interglacial δ18O changes in all monsoon regions; Holocene trends are due to a combination of precipitation, atmospheric circulation and temperature changes.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Laia Comas-Bru, Kira Rehfeld, Carla Roesch, Sahar Amirnezhad-Mozhdehi, Sandy P. Harrison, Kamolphat Atsawawaranunt, Syed Masood Ahmad, Yassine Ait Brahim, Andy Baker, Matthew Bosomworth, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Yuval Burstyn, Andrea Columbu, Michael Deininger, Attila Demény, Bronwyn Dixon, Jens Fohlmeister, István Gábor Hatvani, Jun Hu, Nikita Kaushal, Zoltán Kern, Inga Labuhn, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Andrew Lorrey, Belen Martrat, Valdir Felipe Novello, Jessica Oster, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Denis Scholz, Nick Scroxton, Nitesh Sinha, Brittany Marie Ward, Sophie Warken, Haiwei Zhang, and SISAL Working Group members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2579–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2579-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an updated version of the SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and Analysis) database. This new version contains isotopic data from 691 speleothem records from 294 cave sites and new age–depth models, including their uncertainties, for 512 speleothems.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Stijn Hantson, Douglas I. Kelley, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sally Archibald, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Thomas Hickler, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, I. Colin Prentice, Tim Sheehan, Stephen Sitch, Lina Teckentrup, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Global fire–vegetation models are widely used, but there has been limited evaluation of how well they represent various aspects of fire regimes. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of simulations made by nine FireMIP models in order to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. While some FireMIP models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime, no model clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.
Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Benjamin D. Stocker, Sebastian Lienert, Jurek Müller, Hubertus Fischer, Jochen Schmitt, I. Colin Prentice, Bette Otto-Bliesner, and Zhengyu Liu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3511–3543, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Results of the first globally resolved simulations of terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (N) cycling and N2O emissions over the past 21 000 years are compared with reconstructed N2O emissions. Modelled and reconstructed emissions increased strongly during past abrupt warming events. This evidence appears consistent with a dynamic response of biological N fixation to increasing N demand by ecosystems, thereby reducing N limitation of plant productivity and supporting a land sink for atmospheric CO2.
Benjamin D. Stocker, Han Wang, Nicholas G. Smith, Sandy P. Harrison, Trevor F. Keenan, David Sandoval, Tyler Davis, and I. Colin Prentice
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1545–1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1545-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1545-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating terrestrial photosynthesis relies on satellite data of vegetation cover and models simulating the efficiency by which light absorbed by vegetation is used for CO2 assimilation. This paper presents the P-model, a light use efficiency model derived from a carbon–water optimality principle, and evaluates its predictions of ecosystem-level photosynthesis against globally distributed observations. The model is implemented and openly accessible as an R package (rpmodel).
Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-José Gaillard, Benjamin D. Stocker, Marc Vander Linden, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Oliver Boles, Pascale Braconnot, Andria Dawson, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kastner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Erick Robinson, Nicki J. Whitehouse, Marco Madella, and Kathleen D. Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Past Global Changes LandCover6k initiative will use archaeological records to refine scenarios of land use and land cover change through the Holocene to reduce the uncertainties about the impacts of human-induced changes before widespread industrialization. We describe how archaeological data are used to map land use change and how the maps can be evaluated using independent palaeoenvironmental data. We propose simulations to test land use and land cover change impacts on past climates.
Lina Teckentrup, Sandy P. Harrison, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Joe R. Melton, Matthew Forrest, Fang Li, Chao Yue, Almut Arneth, Thomas Hickler, Stephen Sitch, and Gitta Lasslop
Biogeosciences, 16, 3883–3910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study compares simulated burned area of seven global vegetation models provided by the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) since 1900. We investigate the influence of five forcing factors: atmospheric CO2, population density, land–use change, lightning and climate.
We find that the anthropogenic factors lead to the largest spread between models. Trends due to climate are mostly not significant but climate strongly influences the inter-annual variability of burned area.
Laia Comas-Bru, Sandy P. Harrison, Martin Werner, Kira Rehfeld, Nick Scroxton, Cristina Veiga-Pires, and SISAL working group members
Clim. Past, 15, 1557–1579, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We use an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled climate model to provide a protocol for using speleothem isotopic data for model evaluation, including screening the observations and the optimum period for the modern observational baseline. We also illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotopic values during any time period could be used for model evaluation.
Elizabeth S. Cooper, Sarah L. Dance, Javier García-Pintado, Nancy K. Nichols, and Polly J. Smith
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2541–2559, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2541-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2541-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding from rivers is a huge and costly problem worldwide. Computer simulations can help to warn people if and when they are likely to be affected by river floodwater, but such predictions are not always accurate or reliable. Information about flood extent from satellites can help to keep these forecasts on track. Here we investigate different ways of using information from satellite images and look at the effect on computer predictions. This will help to develop flood warning systems.
Guangqi Li, Sandy P. Harrison, and I. Colin Prentice
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-63, 2019
Publication in BG not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Current methods of removing age effect from tree-ring are influenced by sampling biases – older trees are more abundantly sampled for recent decades, when the strongest environmental change happens. New technique of extracting environment-driven signals from tree ring is specifically designed to overcome this bias, drawing on theoretical tree growth. It removes sampling-bias effectively and shows consistent relationships between growth and climates through time and across two conifer species.
Dongyang Wei, Penélope González-Sampériz, Graciela Gil-Romera, Sandy P. Harrison, and I. Colin Prentice
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-16, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
El Cañizar de Villarquemado provides a pollen record from semi-arid Spain since before the last interglacial. We use modern pollen–climate relationships to reconstruct changes in seasonal temperature and moisture, accounting for CO2 effects on plants, and show coherent climate changes on glacial–interglacial and orbital timescales. The low glacial CO2 means moisture changes are less extreme than suggested by the vegetation shifts, and driven by evapotranspiration rather than rainfall changes.
Matthias Forkel, Niels Andela, Sandy P. Harrison, Gitta Lasslop, Margreet van Marle, Emilio Chuvieco, Wouter Dorigo, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Fang Li, Joe Melton, Stephen Sitch, Chao Yue, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 16, 57–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Weather, humans, and vegetation control the occurrence of fires. In this study we find that global fire–vegetation models underestimate the strong increase of burned area with higher previous-season plant productivity in comparison to satellite-derived relationships.
Kamolphat Atsawawaranunt, Laia Comas-Bru, Sahar Amirnezhad Mozhdehi, Michael Deininger, Sandy P. Harrison, Andy Baker, Meighan Boyd, Nikita Kaushal, Syed Masood Ahmad, Yassine Ait Brahim, Monica Arienzo, Petra Bajo, Kerstin Braun, Yuval Burstyn, Sakonvan Chawchai, Wuhui Duan, István Gábor Hatvani, Jun Hu, Zoltán Kern, Inga Labuhn, Matthew Lachniet, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Andrew Lorrey, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Robyn Pickering, Nick Scroxton, and SISAL Working Group Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1687–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1687-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1687-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is an overview of the contents of the SISAL database and its structure. The database contains oxygen and carbon isotope measurements from 371 individual speleothem records and 10 composite records from 174 cave systems from around the world. The SISAL database is created by a collective effort of the members of the Past Global Changes SISAL working group, which aims to provide a comprehensive compilation of speleothem isotope records for climate reconstruction and model evaluation.
Joanne A. Waller, Javier García-Pintado, David C. Mason, Sarah L. Dance, and Nancy K. Nichols
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3983–3992, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3983-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3983-2018, 2018
Henrique Fürstenau Togashi, Iain Colin Prentice, Owen K. Atkin, Craig Macfarlane, Suzanne M. Prober, Keith J. Bloomfield, and Bradley John Evans
Biogeosciences, 15, 3461–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3461-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3461-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Ecosystem models commonly assume that photosynthetic traits, such as carboxylation capacity measured at a standard temperature, are constant in time and therefore do not acclimate. Optimality hypotheses suggest this assumption may be incorrect. We investigated acclimation by carrying out measurements on woody species during distinct seasons in Western Australia. Our study shows evidence that carboxylation capacity should acclimate so that it increases somewhat with growth temperature.
Sandy P. Harrison, Patrick J. Bartlein, Victor Brovkin, Sander Houweling, Silvia Kloster, and I. Colin Prentice
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 663–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature affects fire occurrence and severity. Warming will increase fire-related carbon emissions and thus atmospheric CO2. The size of this feedback is not known. We use charcoal records to estimate pre-industrial fire emissions and a simple land–biosphere model to quantify the feedback. We infer a feedback strength of 5.6 3.2 ppm CO2 per degree of warming and a gain of 0.09 ± 0.05 for a climate sensitivity of 2.8 K. Thus, fire feedback is a large part of the climate–carbon-cycle feedback.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
María Fernanda Sánchez Goñi, Stéphanie Desprat, Anne-Laure Daniau, Frank C. Bassinot, Josué M. Polanco-Martínez, Sandy P. Harrison, Judy R. M. Allen, R. Scott Anderson, Hermann Behling, Raymonde Bonnefille, Francesc Burjachs, José S. Carrión, Rachid Cheddadi, James S. Clark, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Colin. J. Courtney Mustaphi, Georg H. Debusk, Lydie M. Dupont, Jemma M. Finch, William J. Fletcher, Marco Giardini, Catalina González, William D. Gosling, Laurie D. Grigg, Eric C. Grimm, Ryoma Hayashi, Karin Helmens, Linda E. Heusser, Trevor Hill, Geoffrey Hope, Brian Huntley, Yaeko Igarashi, Tomohisa Irino, Bonnie Jacobs, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Sayuri Kawai, A. Peter Kershaw, Fujio Kumon, Ian T. Lawson, Marie-Pierre Ledru, Anne-Marie Lézine, Ping Mei Liew, Donatella Magri, Robert Marchant, Vasiliki Margari, Francis E. Mayle, G. Merna McKenzie, Patrick Moss, Stefanie Müller, Ulrich C. Müller, Filipa Naughton, Rewi M. Newnham, Tadamichi Oba, Ramón Pérez-Obiol, Roberta Pini, Cesare Ravazzi, Katy H. Roucoux, Stephen M. Rucina, Louis Scott, Hikaru Takahara, Polichronis C. Tzedakis, Dunia H. Urrego, Bas van Geel, B. Guido Valencia, Marcus J. Vandergoes, Annie Vincens, Cathy L. Whitlock, Debra A. Willard, and Masanobu Yamamoto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 679–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-679-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-679-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73–15 ka) plotted against a common chronology; 32 also provide charcoal records. The database allows for the reconstruction of the regional expression, vegetation and fire of past abrupt climate changes that are comparable to those expected in the 21st century. This work is a major contribution to understanding the processes behind rapid climate change.
Bertrand Bonan, Nancy K. Nichols, Michael J. Baines, and Dale Partridge
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 515–534, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-515-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-515-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We develop data assimilation techniques for numerical models using moving mesh methods. Moving meshes are valuable for explicitly tracking interfaces and boundaries in evolving systems. The application of the techniques is demonstrated on a one-dimensional
model of an ice sheet. It is shown, using various types of observations, that
the techniques predict the evolution of the edges of the ice sheet and its height accurately and efficiently.
Sylvain Delahaies, Ian Roulstone, and Nancy Nichols
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2635–2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2635-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2635-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon is a fundamental constituent of life and understanding its global cycle is a key challenge for the modelling of the Earth system. We use a variational method to estimate parameters and initial conditions for the carbon cycle model DALECv2 using multiple sources of observations. We develop a methodology that helps understanding the nature of the inverse problem and evaluating solution strategies, then we demonstrate the efficiency of the variational method in an experiment using real data.
Daniel S. Goll, Alexander J. Winkler, Thomas Raddatz, Ning Dong, Ian Colin Prentice, Philippe Ciais, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2009–2030, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The response of soil organic carbon decomposition to warming and the interactions between nitrogen and carbon cycling affect the feedbacks between the land carbon cycle and the climate. In the model JSBACH carbon–nitrogen interactions have only a small effect on the feedbacks, whereas modifications of soil organic carbon decomposition have a large effect. The carbon cycle in the improved model is more resilient to climatic changes than in previous version of the model.
Tyler W. Davis, I. Colin Prentice, Benjamin D. Stocker, Rebecca T. Thomas, Rhys J. Whitley, Han Wang, Bradley J. Evans, Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Martin T. Sykes, and Wolfgang Cramer
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 689–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-689-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-689-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a comprehensive description for calculating necessary, but sparsely observed, factors related to Earth's surface energy and water budgets relevant in, but not limited to, the study of ecosystems. We present the equations, including their derivations and assumptions, as well as example indicators relevant to plant-available moisture. The robustness of these relatively simple equations provides a tool to be used across broad fields of scientific research.
Ning Dong, Iain Colin Prentice, Bradley J. Evans, Stefan Caddy-Retalic, Andrew J. Lowe, and Ian J. Wright
Biogeosciences, 14, 481–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-481-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-481-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The nitrogen content of leaves is a key quantity for understanding ecosystem function. We analysed variations in nitrogen per unit leaf area among species at sites along a transect across Australia including many climates and ecosystem types. The data could be explained by the idea that leaf nitrogen comprises two parts, one proportional to leaf mass, the other (metabolic) part proportional to light intensity and declining with CO2 drawdown and temperature, as optimal allocation theory predicts.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Corinne Le Quéré, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Róisín Moriarty, Séverine Alvain, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Sophie Chollet, Clare Enright, Daniel J. Franklin, Richard J. Geider, Sandy P. Harrison, Andrew G. Hirst, Stuart Larsen, Louis Legendre, Trevor Platt, I. Colin Prentice, Richard B. Rivkin, Sévrine Sailley, Shubha Sathyendranath, Nick Stephens, Meike Vogt, and Sergio M. Vallina
Biogeosciences, 13, 4111–4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global biogeochemical model which incorporates ecosystem dynamics based on the representation of ten plankton functional types, and use the model to assess the relative roles of iron vs. grazing in determining phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean. Our results suggest that observed low phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean during summer is primarily explained by the dynamics of the Southern Ocean zooplankton community, despite iron limitation of phytoplankton growth.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
A. V. Gallego-Sala, D. J. Charman, S. P. Harrison, G. Li, and I. C. Prentice
Clim. Past, 12, 129–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-129-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-129-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
It has become a well-established paradigm that blanket bog landscapes in the British Isles are a result of forest clearance by early human populations. We provide a novel test of this hypothesis using results from bioclimatic modelling driven by cimate reconstructions compared with a database of peat initiation dates. Both results show similar patterns of peat initiation over time and space. This suggests that climate was the main driver of blanket bog inception and not human disturbance.
B. A. A. Hoogakker, R. S. Smith, J. S. Singarayer, R. Marchant, I. C. Prentice, J. R. M. Allen, R. S. Anderson, S. A. Bhagwat, H. Behling, O. Borisova, M. Bush, A. Correa-Metrio, A. de Vernal, J. M. Finch, B. Fréchette, S. Lozano-Garcia, W. D. Gosling, W. Granoszewski, E. C. Grimm, E. Grüger, J. Hanselman, S. P. Harrison, T. R. Hill, B. Huntley, G. Jiménez-Moreno, P. Kershaw, M.-P. Ledru, D. Magri, M. McKenzie, U. Müller, T. Nakagawa, E. Novenko, D. Penny, L. Sadori, L. Scott, J. Stevenson, P. J. Valdes, M. Vandergoes, A. Velichko, C. Whitlock, and C. Tzedakis
Clim. Past, 12, 51–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-51-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-51-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use two climate models to test how Earth’s vegetation responded to changes in climate over the last 120 000 years, looking at warm interglacial climates like today, cold ice-age glacial climates, and intermediate climates. The models agree well with observations from pollen, showing smaller forested areas and larger desert areas during cold periods. Forests store most terrestrial carbon; the terrestrial carbon lost during cold climates was most likely relocated to the oceans.
B. Bonan, M. J. Baines, N. K. Nichols, and D. Partridge
The Cryosphere, 10, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduce a moving-point approach to model the flow of ice sheets. This particular moving-grid numerical approach is based on the conservation of local masses. This allows the ice sheet margins to be tracked explicitly. A finite-difference moving-point scheme is derived and applied in a simplified context (1-D). The conservation method is also suitable for 2-D scenarios. This paper is a first step towards applications of the conservation method to realistic 2-D cases.
M. G. De Kauwe, S.-X. Zhou, B. E. Medlyn, A. J. Pitman, Y.-P. Wang, R. A. Duursma, and I. C. Prentice
Biogeosciences, 12, 7503–7518, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7503-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7503-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Future climate change has the potential to increase drought in many regions of the globe. Recent data syntheses show that drought sensitivity varies considerably among plants from different climate zones, but state-of-the-art models currently assume the same drought sensitivity for all vegetation. Our results indicate that models will over-estimate drought impacts in drier climates unless different sensitivity of vegetation to drought is taken into account.
T.-T. Meng, H. Wang, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, J. Ni, and G. Wang
Biogeosciences, 12, 5339–5352, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5339-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5339-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
By analysing the quantitative leaf-traits along extensive temperature and moisture gradients with generalized linear models, we found that metabolism-related traits are universally acclimated to environmental conditions, rather than being fixed within plant functional types. The results strongly support a move towards Dynamic Global Vegetation Models in which continuous, adaptive trait variation provides the fundamental mechanism for changes in ecosystem properties along environmental gradients.
I. C. Prentice, X. Liang, B. E. Medlyn, and Y.-P. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5987–6005, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5987-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5987-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Land surface models (LSMs) describe how carbon and water fluxes react to environmental change. They are key component of climate models, yet they differ enormously. Many perform poorly, despite having many parameters. We outline a development strategy emphasizing robustness, reliability and realism, none of which is guaranteed by complexity alone. We propose multiple constraints, benchmarking and data assimilation, and representing unresolved processes stochastically, as tools in this endeavour.
G. Li, S. P. Harrison, and I. C. Prentice
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-4769-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-4769-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
G. Li, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, and D. Falster
Biogeosciences, 11, 6711–6724, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6711-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6711-2014, 2014
M. Martin Calvo, I. C. Prentice, and S. P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 11, 6017–6027, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6017-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6017-2014, 2014
H. Wang, I. C. Prentice, and T. W. Davis
Biogeosciences, 11, 5987–6001, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5987-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5987-2014, 2014
D. I. Kelley, S. P. Harrison, and I. C. Prentice
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2411–2433, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2411-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2411-2014, 2014
I. Bistinas, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, and J. M. C. Pereira
Biogeosciences, 11, 5087–5101, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5087-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5087-2014, 2014
P. N. Foster, I. C. Prentice, C. Morfopoulos, M. Siddall, and M. van Weele
Biogeosciences, 11, 3437–3451, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3437-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3437-2014, 2014
A. M. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. D. Friend, F. Aires, A. T. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. R. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P. O. Hopcroft, C. D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. G. Levine, I. C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vázquez Riveiros, E. W. Wolff, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 10, 8305–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, 2013
A. M. Ukkola and I. C. Prentice
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4177–4187, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4177-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4177-2013, 2013
H. Wang, I. C. Prentice, and J. Ni
Biogeosciences, 10, 5817–5830, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5817-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5817-2013, 2013
D. I. Kelley, I. C. Prentice, S. P. Harrison, H. Wang, M. Simard, J. B. Fisher, and K. O. Willis
Biogeosciences, 10, 3313–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3313-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3313-2013, 2013
F. J. Bragg, I. C. Prentice, S. P. Harrison, G. Eglinton, P. N. Foster, F. Rommerskirchen, and J. Rullkötter
Biogeosciences, 10, 2001–2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2001-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2001-2013, 2013
D. J. Charman, D. W. Beilman, M. Blaauw, R. K. Booth, S. Brewer, F. M. Chambers, J. A. Christen, A. Gallego-Sala, S. P. Harrison, P. D. M. Hughes, S. T. Jackson, A. Korhola, D. Mauquoy, F. J. G. Mitchell, I. C. Prentice, M. van der Linden, F. De Vleeschouwer, Z. C. Yu, J. Alm, I. E. Bauer, Y. M. C. Corish, M. Garneau, V. Hohl, Y. Huang, E. Karofeld, G. Le Roux, J. Loisel, R. Moschen, J. E. Nichols, T. M. Nieminen, G. M. MacDonald, N. R. Phadtare, N. Rausch, Ü. Sillasoo, G. T. Swindles, E.-S. Tuittila, L. Ukonmaanaho, M. Väliranta, S. van Bellen, B. van Geel, D. H. Vitt, and Y. Zhao
Biogeosciences, 10, 929–944, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-929-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-929-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Pleistocene
The Indo–Pacific Pollen Database – a Neotoma constituent database
Can machine-learning algorithms improve upon classical palaeoenvironmental reconstruction models?
Quantitative reconstruction of past monsoon precipitation based on tetraether membrane lipids in Chinese loess
Distinguishing the combined vegetation and soil component of δ13C variation in speleothem records from subsequent degassing and prior calcite precipitation effects
Multi-proxy speleothem-based reconstruction of mid-MIS 3 climate in South Africa
Biomarker proxy records of Arctic climate change during the Mid-Pleistocene transition from Lake El'gygytgyn (Far East Russia)
Hydroclimatic variability of opposing Late Pleistocene climates in the Levant revealed by deep Dead Sea sediments
Different facets of dry–wet patterns in south-western China over the past 27 000 years
The triple oxygen isotope composition of phytoliths, a new proxy of atmospheric relative humidity: controls of soil water isotope composition, temperature, CO2 concentration and relative humidity
The speleothem oxygen record as a proxy for thermal or moisture changes: a case study of multiproxy records from MIS 5–MIS 6 speleothems from the Demänová Cave system
The Last Glacial Maximum in the central North Island, New Zealand: palaeoclimate inferences from glacier modelling
Late-glacial to late-Holocene shifts in global precipitation δ18O
Climate history of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies belt during the last glacial–interglacial transition revealed from lake water oxygen isotope reconstruction of Laguna Potrok Aike (52° S, Argentina)
New online method for water isotope analysis of speleothem fluid inclusions using laser absorption spectroscopy (WS-CRDS)
Inorganic geochemistry data from Lake El'gygytgyn sediments: marine isotope stages 6–11
A 350 ka record of climate change from Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic: refining the pattern of climate modes by means of cluster analysis
Dynamic diatom response to changing climate 0–1.2 Ma at Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic
Amplified bioproductivity during Transition IV (332 000–342 000 yr ago): evidence from the geochemical record of Lake El'gygytgyn
Potential and limits of OSL, TT-OSL, IRSL and pIRIR290 dating methods applied on a Middle Pleistocene sediment record of Lake El'gygytgyn, Russia
Rock magnetic properties, magnetic susceptibility, and organic geochemistry comparison in core LZ1029-7 Lake El'gygytgyn, Russia Far East
High-temperature thermomagnetic properties of vivianite nodules, Lake El'gygytgyn, Northeast Russia
Reconstruction of drip-water δ18O based on calcite oxygen and clumped isotopes of speleothems from Bunker Cave (Germany)
A biomarker record of Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic: investigating sources of organic matter and carbon cycling during marine isotope stages 1–3
Climate warming and vegetation response after Heinrich event 1 (16 700–16 000 cal yr BP) in Europe south of the Alps
A 250 ka oxygen isotope record from diatoms at Lake El'gygytgyn, far east Russian Arctic
The oxygen isotopic composition of phytolith assemblages from tropical rainforest soil tops (Queensland, Australia): validation of a new paleoenvironmental tool
Terrestrial mollusc records from Xifeng and Luochuan L9 loess strata and their implications for paleoclimatic evolution in the Chinese Loess Plateau during marine Oxygen Isotope Stages 24-22
Annika V. Herbert, Simon G. Haberle, Suzette G. A. Flantua, Ondrej Mottl, Jessica L. Blois, John W. Williams, Adrian George, and Geoff S. Hope
Clim. Past, 20, 2473–2485, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Indo-Pacific Pollen Database is a large collection of pollen samples from across the Indo-Pacific region, with most samples coming from Australia. This is a valuable collection that can be used to analyse vegetation dynamics going back thousands of years. It is now being fully shared via Neotoma for the first time, opening up many exciting new avenues of research. This paper presents key aspects of this database, including geographical distribution, age control and deposition times.
Peng Sun, Philip B. Holden, and H. John B. Birks
Clim. Past, 20, 2373–2398, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2373-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop the Multi Ensemble Machine Learning Model (MEMLM) for reconstructing palaeoenvironments from microfossil assemblages. The machine-learning approaches, which include random tree and natural language processing techniques, substantially outperform classical approaches under cross-validation, but they can fail when applied to reconstruct past environments. Statistical significance testing is found sufficient to identify these unreliable reconstructions.
Jingjing Guo, Martin Ziegler, Louise Fuchs, Youbin Sun, and Francien Peterse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1648, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use the distribution of soil bacterial membrane lipids stored on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) to quantitatively reconstruct variations in precipitation amount over the past 130 kyr. The precipitation record shows orbital- and millennial-scale variations and varies at precession and obliquity scale. The application of this precipitation proxy across the CLP indicates a more pronounced spatial gradient during glacials, when the western CLP experiences more arid conditions.
Heather M. Stoll, Chris Day, Franziska Lechleitner, Oliver Kost, Laura Endres, Jakub Sliwinski, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Hai Cheng, and Denis Scholz
Clim. Past, 19, 2423–2444, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2423-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2423-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stalagmites formed in caves provide valuable information about past changes in climate and vegetation conditions. In this contribution, we present a new method to better estimate past changes in soil and vegetation productivity using carbon isotopes and trace elements measured in stalagmites. Applying this method to other stalagmites should provide a better indication of past vegetation feedbacks to climate change.
Jenny Maccali, Anna Nele Meckler, Stein-Erik Lauritzen, Torill Brekken, Helen Aase Rokkan, Alvaro Fernandez, Yves Krüger, Jane Adigun, Stéphane Affolter, and Markus Leuenberger
Clim. Past, 19, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The southern coast of South Africa hosts some key archeological sites for the study of early human evolution. Here we present a short but high-resolution record of past changes in the hydroclimate and temperature on the southern coast of South Africa based on the study of a speleothem collected from Bloukrantz Cave. Overall, the paleoclimate indicators suggest stable temperature from 48.3 to 45.2 ka, whereas precipitation was variable, with marked short drier episodes.
Kurt R. Lindberg, William C. Daniels, Isla S. Castañeda, and Julie Brigham-Grette
Clim. Past, 18, 559–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-559-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Earth experiences regular ice ages resulting in shifts between cooler and warmer climates. Around 1 million years ago, the ice age cycles grew longer and stronger. We used bacterial and plant lipids preserved in an Arctic lake to reconstruct temperature and vegetation during this climate transition. We find that Arctic land temperatures did not cool much compared to ocean records from this period, and that vegetation shifts correspond with a long-term drying previously reported in the region.
Yoav Ben Dor, Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, Yehouda Enzel, Achim Brauer, Markus Julius Schwab, and Efrat Morin
Clim. Past, 17, 2653–2677, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Laminated sediments from the deepest part of the Dead Sea unravel the hydrological response of the eastern Mediterranean to past climate changes. This study demonstrates the importance of geological archives in complementing modern hydrological measurements that do not fully capture natural hydroclimatic variability, which is crucial to configure for understanding the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in subtropical regions.
Mengna Liao, Kai Li, Weiwei Sun, and Jian Ni
Clim. Past, 17, 2291–2303, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2291-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The long-term trajectories of precipitation, hydrological balance and soil moisture are not completely consistent in southwest China. Hydrological balance was more sensitive to temperature change on a millennial scale. For soil moisture, plant processes also played a big role in addition to precipitation and temperature. Under future climate warming, surface water shortage in southwest China can be even more serious and efforts at reforestation may bring some relief to the soil moisture deficit.
Clément Outrequin, Anne Alexandre, Christine Vallet-Coulomb, Clément Piel, Sébastien Devidal, Amaelle Landais, Martine Couapel, Jean-Charles Mazur, Christophe Peugeot, Monique Pierre, Frédéric Prié, Jacques Roy, Corinne Sonzogni, and Claudia Voigt
Clim. Past, 17, 1881–1902, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1881-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1881-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Continental atmospheric humidity is a key climate parameter poorly captured by global climate models. Model–data comparison approaches that are applicable beyond the instrumental period are essential to progress on this issue but face a lack of quantitative relative humidity proxies. Here, we calibrate the triple oxygen isotope composition of phytoliths as a new quantitative proxy of continental relative humidity suitable for past climate reconstructions.
Jacek Pawlak
Clim. Past, 17, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1051-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Presently, central Europe is under the influence of two types of climate, transitional and continental. The 60 ka long multiproxy speleothem dataset from Slovakia records the climate of the Last Interglacial cycle and its transition to the Last Glacial. The interpretation of stable isotopic composition and trace element content proxies helps to distinguish which factor had the strongest influence on the δ18O record shape: the local temperature, the humidity or the source effect.
Shaun R. Eaves, Andrew N. Mackintosh, Brian M. Anderson, Alice M. Doughty, Dougal B. Townsend, Chris E. Conway, Gisela Winckler, Joerg M. Schaefer, Graham S. Leonard, and Andrew T. Calvert
Clim. Past, 12, 943–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-943-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-943-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Geological evidence for past changes in glacier length provides a useful source of information about pre-historic climate change. We have used glacier modelling to show that air temperature reductions of −5 to −7 °C, relative to present, are required to simulate the glacial extent in the North Island, New Zealand, during the last ice age (approx. 20000 years ago). Our results provide data to assess climate model simulations, with the aim of determining the drivers of past natural climate change.
S. Jasechko, A. Lechler, F. S. R. Pausata, P. J. Fawcett, T. Gleeson, D. I. Cendón, J. Galewsky, A. N. LeGrande, C. Risi, Z. D. Sharp, J. M. Welker, M. Werner, and K. Yoshimura
Clim. Past, 11, 1375–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we compile global isotope proxy records of climate changes from the last ice age to the late-Holocene preserved in cave calcite, glacial ice and groundwater aquifers. We show that global patterns of late-Pleistocene to late-Holocene precipitation isotope shifts are consistent with stronger-than-modern isotopic distillation of air masses during the last ice age, likely impacted by larger global temperature differences between the tropics and the poles.
J. Zhu, A. Lücke, H. Wissel, C. Mayr, D. Enters, K. Ja Kim, C. Ohlendorf, F. Schäbitz, and B. Zolitschka
Clim. Past, 10, 2153–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2153-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2153-2014, 2014
S. Affolter, D. Fleitmann, and M. Leuenberger
Clim. Past, 10, 1291–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1291-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1291-2014, 2014
P. S. Minyuk, V. Y. Borkhodoev, and V. Wennrich
Clim. Past, 10, 467–485, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-467-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-467-2014, 2014
U. Frank, N. R. Nowaczyk, P. Minyuk, H. Vogel, P. Rosén, and M. Melles
Clim. Past, 9, 1559–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1559-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1559-2013, 2013
J. A. Snyder, M. V. Cherepanova, and A. Bryan
Clim. Past, 9, 1309–1319, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1309-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1309-2013, 2013
L. Cunningham, H. Vogel, V. Wennrich, O. Juschus, N. Nowaczyk, and P. Rosén
Clim. Past, 9, 679–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-679-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-679-2013, 2013
A. Zander and A. Hilgers
Clim. Past, 9, 719–733, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-719-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-719-2013, 2013
K. J. Murdock, K. Wilkie, and L. L. Brown
Clim. Past, 9, 467–479, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-467-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-467-2013, 2013
P. S. Minyuk, T. V. Subbotnikova, L. L. Brown, and K. J. Murdock
Clim. Past, 9, 433–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-433-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-433-2013, 2013
T. Kluge, H. P. Affek, T. Marx, W. Aeschbach-Hertig, D. F. C. Riechelmann, D. Scholz, S. Riechelmann, A. Immenhauser, D. K. Richter, J. Fohlmeister, A. Wackerbarth, A. Mangini, and C. Spötl
Clim. Past, 9, 377–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-377-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-377-2013, 2013
A. R. Holland, S. T. Petsch, I. S. Castañeda, K. M. Wilkie, S. J. Burns, and J. Brigham-Grette
Clim. Past, 9, 243–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-243-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-243-2013, 2013
S. Samartin, O. Heiri, A. F. Lotter, and W. Tinner
Clim. Past, 8, 1913–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1913-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1913-2012, 2012
B. Chapligin, H. Meyer, G. E. A. Swann, C. Meyer-Jacob, and H.-W. Hubberten
Clim. Past, 8, 1621–1636, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1621-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1621-2012, 2012
A. Alexandre, J. Crespin, F. Sylvestre, C. Sonzogni, and D. W. Hilbert
Clim. Past, 8, 307–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-307-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-307-2012, 2012
B. Wu and N. Q. Wu
Clim. Past, 7, 349–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-349-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-349-2011, 2011
Cited articles
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum, Clim. Past, 9, 367–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-367-2013, 2013.
Bartlein, P. J., Harrison, S. P., Brewer, S., Connor, S., Davis, B. A. S.,
Gajewski, K., Guiot, J., Harrison-Prentice, T. I., Henderson, A., Peyron, O.,
Prentice, I. C., Scholze, M., Seppa, H., Shuman, B., Sugita, S., Thompson,
R. S., Viau, A. E., Williams, J., and Wu, H.: Pollen-based continental climate
reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesis, Clim. Dynam., 37,
775–802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0904-1, 2011.
Bartlein, P. J., Harrison, S. P., and Izumi, K.: Underlying causes of Eurasian
mid-continental aridity in simulations of mid-Holocene climate, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 44, 9020–9028, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074476, 2017.
Braconnot, P., Otto-Bliesner, B., Harrison, S., Joussaume, S., Peterchmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Crucifix, M., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, Th., Hewitt, C. D., Kageyama, M., Kitoh, A., Laîné, A., Loutre, M.-F., Marti, O., Merkel, U., Ramstein, G., Valdes, P., Weber, S. L., Yu, Y., and Zhao, Y.: Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum – Part 1: experiments and large-scale features, Clim. Past, 3, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-261-2007, 2007.
Braconnot, P., Harrison, S.P., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P.J.,
Masson-Delmotte, V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Zhao, Y.:
Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data, Nat. Clim. Change,
2, 417–424, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012.
Bradley, R. S.: Paleoclimatology: Reconstructing Climates of the
Quaternary, 3rd edn., Academic Press/Elsevier, Amsterdam, 2014.
Bragg, F. J., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Eglinton, G., Foster, P. N., Rommerskirchen, F., and Rullkötter, J.: Stable isotope and modelling evidence for CO2 as a driver of glacial–interglacial vegetation shifts in southern Africa, Biogeosciences, 10, 2001–2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2001-2013, 2013.
Bramley, H., Turner, N., and Siddique, K.: Water use efficiency,
in: Genomics and Breeding for Climate-Resilient Crops,
edited by: Kole, C., 1 ed., 2, 487 pp., Heidelberg,
Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37048-9, 2013.
Brewer, S., Guiot, J., and Torre, F.: Mid-Holocene climate change in Europe: a data-model comparison, Clim. Past, 3, 499–512, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-499-2007, 2007.
Budich, R., Giorgetta, M., Jungclaus, J., Redler, R., and Reick, C.: The
MPI-M Millennium Earth System Model: An Assembling Guide for the COSMOS
Configuration, available at: https://pure.mpg.de/rest/items/item_2193290_2/component/file_2193291/content,
(last access: 31 March 2019), 2010.
Camuera, J., Jimenez-Moreno, G., Ramos-Roman, M. J., Garcia-Alix, A., Toney,
J. L., Anderson, R. S., Jimenez-Espejo, F., Bright, J., Webster, C., Yanes,
Y., and Carrion, J. S.: Vegetation and climate changes during the last two
glacial-interglacial cycles in the western Mediterranean: A new long pollen
record from Padul (southern Iberian Peninsula), Quaternary Sci. Rev., 205,
86–105, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.12.013, 2019.
Chang, J. C., Shulmeister, J., Woodward, C., Steinberger, L., Tibby, J.,
and Barr, C.: A chironomid-inferred summer temperature reconstruction from
subtropical Australia during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the last
deglaciation, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 122, 282–292, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.06.006, 2015.
Cleator, S. F., Harrison, S. P., Nichols, N. K., Prentice, I. C., and Roustone, I.: A method for generating coherent spatially explicit maps of seasonal paleoclimates from site-based reconstructions, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001630, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001630, 2020a.
Cleator, S., Harrison, S. P., Nicholson, N., Prentice, I. C., and Roul- stone, I.: A new multi-variable benchmark for Last Glacial Maximum climate simulations, https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.244, 2020b.
Cleator, S., Harrison, S. P., Nicholson, N., Prentice, I. C., and Roulstone, I.: Make spatially coherent gridded maps of the palaeoclimate by combining site-based pollen reconstructions and climate model outputs using a conditioned 3D variational data assimilation method, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3719332, 2020c.
Cowling, S. A. and Sykes, M. T.: Physiological significance of low
atmospheric CO2 for plant-climate interactions, Quaternary Res., 52,
237–242, https://doi.org/10.1006/qres.1999.2065, 1999.
Davis, T. W., Prentice, I. C., Stocker, B. D., Thomas, R. T., Whitley, R. J., Wang, H., Evans, B. J., Gallego-Sala, A. V., Sykes, M. T., and Cramer, W.: Simple process-led algorithms for simulating habitats (SPLASH v.1.0): robust indices of radiation, evapotranspiration and plant-available moisture, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 689–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-689-2017, 2017.
Delahaies, S., Roulstone, I., and Nichols, N.: Constraining DALECv2 using multiple data streams and ecological constraints: analysis and application, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2635–2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2635-2017, 2017.
Dubinkina, S., Goosse, H., Sallaz-Damaz, Y., Crespin, E., and Crucifix, M.:
Testing a particle filter to reconstruct climate changes over the past
centuries, Int. J. Bifurcat. Chaos, 21, 3611–3618, 2011.
Dufresne, J.-L., Foujols, M.-A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont,
O., Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., Benshila, R., Bony, S., Bopp,
L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic,
A., Cugnet, D., de Noblet, N., Duvel, J.-P., Ethé, C., Fairhead, L..,
Fichefet, T., Flavoni, S., Friedlingstein, P., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guez, L.,
Guilyardi, E., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Ghattas, J.,
Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Krinner, G.., Labetoulle, S., Lahellec, A.,
Lefebvre, M.-P., Lefevre, F., Levy, C., Li, Z. X., Lloyd, J., Lott, F.,
Madec, G., Mancip, M., Marchand, M., Masson, S., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J.,
Musat, I., Parouty, S., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Schulz, M., Swingedouw, D.,
Szopa, S., Talandier, C., Terray, P., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Climate
change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to
CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2123–2165, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1, 2013.
Farquhar, G. D., von Caemmerer, S., and Berry, J. A.: A biochemical model of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C3 species, Planta, 149, 78–90, 1980.
Flantua, S. G. A., Hooghiemstra, H., Grimm, E. C., Behling, H., Bush, M. B.,
Gonzalez-Arango, C., Gosling, W. D., Ledru, M. P., Lozano-Garcia, S.,
Maldonado, A., Prieto, A. R., Rull, V., and Van Boxel, J. H.: Updated site
compilation of the Latin American Pollen Database, Rev. Palaeobot. Palyno.,
223, 104–115, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.revpalbo.2015.09.008,
2015.
Gallego-Sala, A. V., Charman, D. J., Harrison, S. P., Li, G., and Prentice, I. C.: Climate-driven expansion of blanket bogs in Britain during the Holocene, Clim. Past, 12, 129–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-129-2016, 2016.
Gent, P. R., Danabasoglu, G., Donner, L. J., Holland, M. M., Hunke, E. C.,
Jayne, S. R., Lawrence, D. M., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P. J., Vertenstein, M.,
Worley, P. H., Yang, Z.-L., and Zhang, M.: The community climate system model
version 4, J. Climate, 24, 4973–4991, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1, 2011.
Goosse, H., Renssen, H., Timmermann, A., Bradley, R. S., and Mann, M. E.:
Using palaeoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble
of simulations of the climate of the past millennium, Clim. Dynam., 27,
165–184, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0128-6, 2006.
Greve, P., Roderick, M. L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Simulated changes in
aridity from the last glacial maximum to 4xCO2, Environ. Res. Lett.,
12, 114021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa89a3, 2017.
Guiot, J., Torre, F., Jolly, D., Peyron, O., Boreux, J. J., and Cheddadi, R.:
Inverse vegetation modeling by Monte Carlo sampling to reconstruct
palaeoclimates under changed precipitation seasonality and CO2
conditions: application to glacial climate in Mediterranean region.
Ecol. Model., 127, 119–140, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(99)00219-7,
2000.
Harrison, S. P. and Bartlein, P. J.: Records from the past, lessons for the
future: what the palaeo-record implies about mechanisms of global change,
in: The Future of the
World's Climate, edited by: Henderson-Sellers, A. and McGuffie, K., Elsevier, 403–436, 2012.
Harrison, S. P. and Prentice, I. C.: Climate and CO2 controls on global
vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum: analysis based on
palaeovegetation data, biome modelling and palaeoclimate simulations, Glob.
Change Biol., 9, 983–1004, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00640.x, 2003.
Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Brewer, S., Prentice, I. C., Boyd, M.,
Hessler, I., Holmgren, K., Izumi, K., and Willis, K.: Climate model
benchmarking with glacial and mid-Holocene climates, Clim. Dynam., 43,
671–688, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1922-6, 2014.
Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Izumi, K., Li, G., Annan, J., Hargreaves,
J., Braconnot, P., and Kageyama, M.: Evaluation of CMIP5 palaeo-simulations
to improve climate projections, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 735–743, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2649, 2015.
Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., and Prentice, I. C.: What have we learnt from
palaeoclimate simulations?, J. Quaternary Sci., 31, 363–385, 2016.
Herbert, A. V. and Harrison, S. P.: Evaluation of a modern-analogue
methodology for reconstructing Australian palaeoclimate from pollen, Rev.
Palaeobot. Palyno., 226, 65–77,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.revpalbo.2015.12.006, 2016.
Hill, D. J., Haywood, A. M., Lunt, D. J., Hunter, S. J., Bragg, F. J., Contoux, C., Stepanek, C., Sohl, L., Rosenbloom, N. A., Chan, W.-L., Kamae, Y., Zhang, Z., Abe-Ouchi, A., Chandler, M. A., Jost, A., Lohmann, G., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Ramstein, G., and Ueda, H.: Evaluating the dominant components of warming in Pliocene climate simulations, Clim. Past, 10, 79–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, 2014.
Izumi, K. and Bartlein, P. J.: North American paleoclimate reconstructions
for the Last Glacial Maximum using an inverse modeling through iterative
forward modeling approach applied to pollen data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43,
10965–10972, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070152, 2016.
Izumi, K., Bartlein, P. J., and Harrison, S. P.: Consistent behaviour of the
climate system in response to past and future forcing, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 40, 1817–1823, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50350, 2013.
Izumi, K., Bartlein, P. J., and Harrison, S. P.: Energy-balance mechanisms
underlying consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold
climates, Clim. Dynam., 44, 3111–3127, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2189-2, 2014.
Jolly, D. and Haxeltine, A.: Effect of low glacial atmospheric CO2 on
tropical African montane vegetation, Science, 276, 786–788, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.276.5313.786, 1997.
Joussaume, S. and Taylor, K. E.: Status of the Paleoclimate Modeling
Intercomparison Project (PMIP), in: Proceedings of the First International
AMIP Scientific Conference, WCRP Report, 425–430, 1995.
Jungclaus, J.H., Keenlyside, N., Botzet, M., Haak, H., Luo, J-J., Latif, M.,
Marotzke, J., Mikolajewicz, U., and Roeckner, E.: Ocean circulation and
tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM, J. Climate, 19,
3952–3972, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3827.1, 2006.
Kageyama, M., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Haywood, A. M., Jungclaus, J. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albani, S., Bartlein, P. J., Brierley, C., Crucifix, M., Dolan, A., Fernandez-Donado, L., Fischer, H., Hopcroft, P. O., Ivanovic, R. F., Lambert, F., Lunt, D. J., Mahowald, N. M., Peltier, W. R., Phipps, S. J., Roche, D. M., Schmidt, G. A., Tarasov, L., Valdes, P. J., Zhang, Q., and Zhou, T.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018.
Kaplan, J. O., Bigelow, N. H., Bartlein, P. J., Christensen, T. R., Cramer, W.,
Harrison, S. P., Matveyeva, N. V., McGuire, A. D., Murray, D. F., Prentice,
I. C., Razzhivin, V. Y., Smith, B. and Walker, D. A., Anderson, P. M., Andreev,
A. A., Brubaker, L. B., Edwards, M. E., and Lozhkin, A. V.: Climate change and
Arctic ecosystems II: Modeling, palaeodata-model comparisons, and future
projections, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 8171, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002559, 2003.
Keenan, T., Serra, J. M., Lloret, F., Ninyerola, M., and Sabate, S.:
Predicting the future of forests in the Mediterranean under climate change,
with niche- and process-based models: CO2 matters, Glob. Change
Biol., 17, 565–579, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02254.x, 2011.
Kirtman, B., Power, S. B., Adedoyin, J. A., Boer, G. J., Bojariu, R.,
Camilloni, I., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Fiore, A. M., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A.,
Prather, M., Sarr, A., Schär, C., Sutton, R., van Oldenborgh, G. J.,
Vecchi G., and Wang, H. J.: Near-term climate change: projections and
predictability, in: Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K.,
Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M.,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 953–1028, 2013.
Lebamba, J., Vincens, A., and Maley, J.: Pollen, vegetation change and climate at Lake Barombi Mbo (Cameroon) during the last ca. 33 000 cal yr BP: a numerical approach, Clim. Past, 8, 59–78, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-59-2012, 2012.
Li, G., Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Izumi, K., and Prentice, I. C.:
Precipitation scaling with temperature in warm and cold climates: an
analysis of CMIP5 simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4018–4024,
https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50730, 2013.
Li, L., Lin, P., Yu, Y., Wang, B., Zhou, T., Liu, L., Liu, J., Bao, Q., Xu,
S., Huang, W., Xia, K., Pu, Y., Dong, L., Shen, S., Liu, Y., Hu, N., Liu,
M., Sun, W., Shi, X., Zheng, W., Wu, B., Song, M., Liu, H., Zhang, X., Wu,
G., Xue, W., Huang, X., Yang, G., Song, Z., and Qiao, F.: The flexible
global ocean-atmosphere-land system model, Grid-point Version 2: FGOALS-g2,
Adv. Atmos. Sci., 30, 543–560, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-012-2140-6, 2013.
Liu, D. C. and Nocedal, J.: On the limited memory BFGS method for large scale
optimization, Math. Program., 45, 503–528, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01589116,
1989.
Loomis, S. E., Russell, J. M., Verschuren, D., Morrill, C., De Cort, G.,
Sinninghe Damste, J. S., Olago, D., Eggermont, H., Street-Perrott, F. A.,
and Kelly, M. A.: The tropical lapse rate steepened during the Last Glacial
Maximum, Sci. Adv., 3, e1600815, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1600815, 2017.
Lunt, D. J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bakker, P., Berger, A., Braconnot, P., Charbit, S., Fischer, N., Herold, N., Jungclaus, J. H., Khon, V. C., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Langebroek, P. M., Lohmann, G., Nisancioglu, K. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Park, W., Pfeiffer, M., Phipps, S. J., Prange, M., Rachmayani, R., Renssen, H., Rosenbloom, N., Schneider, B., Stone, E. J., Takahashi, K., Wei, W., Yin, Q., and Zhang, Z. S.: A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures, Clim. Past, 9, 699–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-699-2013, 2013.
Martin Calvo, M. and Prentice, I.C.: Effects of fire and CO2 on
biogeography and primary production in glacial and modern climates, New
Phytol., 208, 987–994, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.13485,
2015.
Martin Calvo, M., Prentice, I. C., and Harrison, S. P.: Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial–interglacial contrast, Biogeosciences, 11, 6017–6027, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6017-2014, 2014.
Mauri, A., Davis, B. A. S., Collins, P. M., and Kaplan, J. O.: The influence of atmospheric circulation on the mid-Holocene climate of Europe: a data–model comparison, Clim. Past, 10, 1925–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1925-2014, 2014.
Menke, W.: Geophysical data analysis: Discrete inverse theory (Matlab 3rd
ed.), Cambridge, Massachusetts, Academic Press, 2012.
New, M., Lister, D., Hulme, M., and Makin, I.: A high-resolution data set
for surface climate over global land areas, Clim. Res., 21, 1–25, 2002.
Nichols, N. K.: Mathematical concepts of data assimilation, in: Data Assimilation, edited by: Lahoz, W.,
Khattatov, B., and Menard, R., Springer, 2010.
Perez-Sanz, A., Li, G., González-Sampériz, P., and Harrison, S. P.: Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations, Clim. Past, 10, 551–568, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, 2014.
Prentice, I. C., Dong, N., Gleason, S. M., Maire, V., and Wright, I. J.:
Balancing the costs of carbon gain and water loss: testing a new
quantitative framework for plant functional ecology, Ecol. Lett., 17,
82–91, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12211, 2014.
Prentice, I. C., Cleator, S. F., Huang, Y. H., Harrison, S. P., and Roulstone,
I.: Reconstructing ice-age palaeoclimates: Quantifying low-CO2 effects
on plants, Global Planet. Change, 149, 166–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.12.012, 2017.
Roderick, M. L., Greve, P., and Farquhar, G. D.: On the assessment of aridity
with changes in atmospheric CO2, Water Resour. Res., 51, 5450–63,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017031, 2015.
Voldoire, A., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Salas y Mélia, D., Decharme, B.,
Cassou, C., Sénési, S., Valcke, S., Beau, I., Alias, A., Chevallier,
M., Déqué, M., Deshayes, J., Douville, H., Fernandez, E., Madec, G.,
Maisonnave, E., Moine, M-P., Planton, M.S., Saint-Martin, D., Szopa, S.,
Tyteca, S., Alkama, R., Belamari, S., Braun, A., Coquart, L., and Chauvin,
F.: The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation,
Clim. Dynam., 759, 2091–2121, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1259-y, 2012.
Wang, H., Prentice, I. C., and Davis, T. W.: Biophsyical constraints on gross primary production by the terrestrial biosphere, Biogeosciences, 11, 5987–6001, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5987-2014, 2014.
Wang, H., Prentice, I. C., Cornwell, W. M., Keenan, T. F., Davis, T. W., Wright,
I. J., Evans, B. J., and Peng, C.: Towards a universal model for carbon
dioxide uptake by plants, Nat. Plants, 3, 734–741, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-017-0006-8, 2017.
Wang, Y., Herzschuh, U., Shumilovskikh, L. S., Mischke, S., Birks, H. J. B., Wischnewski, J., Böhner, J., Schlütz, F., Lehmkuhl, F., Diekmann, B., Wünnemann, B., and Zhang, C.: Quantitative reconstruction of precipitation changes on the NE Tibetan Plateau since the Last Glacial Maximum – extending the concept of pollen source area to pollen-based climate reconstructions from large lakes, Clim. Past, 10, 21–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-21-2014, 2014.
Watanabe, S., Hajima, T., Sudo, K., Nagashima, T., Takemura, T., Okajima, H., Nozawa, T., Kawase, H., Abe, M., Yokohata, T., Ise, T., Sato, H., Kato, E., Takata, K., Emori, S., and Kawamiya, M.: MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 845–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-845-2011, 2011.
Wu, H., Guiot, J., Brewer, S., and Guo, Z.: Climatic changes in Eurasia and
Africa at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene: reconstruction from
pollen data using inverse vegetation modelling, Clim. Dynam., 29, 211–229,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0231-3, 2007.
Wu, H., T. Guiot, J., Peng, C., and Guo, Z.: New coupled model used
inversely for reconstructing past terrestrial carbon storage from pollen
data: Validation of model using modern data, Glob. Change Biol., 15, 82–96,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01712.x, 2009.
Yukimoto, S., Yoshimura, H., Hosaka, M., Sakami, T., Tsujino, H., Hirabara,
M., Tanaka, T.Y., Deushi, M., Obata, A., Nakano, H., Adachi, Y., Shindo, E.,
Yabu, S., Ose, T., and Kitoh, A.: Meteorological Research Institute-Earth System
Model v1 (MRI-ESM1) – Model Description, Tech. Rep. Meteor. Res, Inst., 64,
88 pp., available at: http://www.mri-jma.go.jp/Publish/Technical/DATA/VOL_64/index.html (last access: 18 March 2020), 2011.
Zhang, L., Hickel, K., Dawes, W. R., Chiew, F. H. S., Western, A. W., and Briggs,
P. R.: A rational function approach for estimating mean annual
evapotranspiration, Water Resour. Res., 40, W02502,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002710, 2004.
Short summary
We present geographically explicit reconstructions of seasonal temperature and annual moisture variables at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21 000 years ago. The reconstructions use existing site-based estimates of climate, interpolated in space and time in a physically consistent way using climate model simulations. The reconstructions give a much better picture of the LGM climate and will provide a robust evaluation of how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate large climate changes.
We present geographically explicit reconstructions of seasonal temperature and annual moisture...
