Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Aug 2019
Research article |
| 09 Aug 2019
| 09 Aug 2019
Evaluating model outputs using integrated global speleothem records of climate change since the last glacial
School of Archaeology, Geography & Environmental Sciences, Reading
University, Whiteknights, Reading, RG6 6AH, UK
UCD School of Earth Sciences, University College Dublin, Belfield,
Dublin 4, Ireland
Sandy P. Harrison
School of Archaeology, Geography & Environmental Sciences, Reading
University, Whiteknights, Reading, RG6 6AH, UK
Martin Werner
Division Climate Science – Paleoclimate Dynamics, Climate Science division, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Alfred Wegener Institute, Bussestr. 24,
27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Kira Rehfeld
Institute of Environmental Physics, Ruprecht-Karls-Universität
Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 229, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
Nick Scroxton
Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, 611
North Pleasant Street, 01003-9297 Amherst, MA, USA
Cristina Veiga-Pires
Universidade do Algarve, Marine and Environmental Research Centre – CIMA, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal
SISAL working group members
A full list of authors and their affiliations appears at the end of the paper.
Related authors
Sarah E. Parker, Sandy P. Harrison, Laia Comas-Bru, Nikita Kaushal, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 1119–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional trends in the oxygen isotope (δ18O) composition of stalagmites reflect several climate processes. We compare stalagmite δ18O records from monsoon regions and model simulations to identify the causes of δ18O variability over the last 12 000 years, and between glacial and interglacial states. Precipitation changes explain the glacial–interglacial δ18O changes in all monsoon regions; Holocene trends are due to a combination of precipitation, atmospheric circulation and temperature changes.
Laia Comas-Bru, Kira Rehfeld, Carla Roesch, Sahar Amirnezhad-Mozhdehi, Sandy P. Harrison, Kamolphat Atsawawaranunt, Syed Masood Ahmad, Yassine Ait Brahim, Andy Baker, Matthew Bosomworth, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Yuval Burstyn, Andrea Columbu, Michael Deininger, Attila Demény, Bronwyn Dixon, Jens Fohlmeister, István Gábor Hatvani, Jun Hu, Nikita Kaushal, Zoltán Kern, Inga Labuhn, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Andrew Lorrey, Belen Martrat, Valdir Felipe Novello, Jessica Oster, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Denis Scholz, Nick Scroxton, Nitesh Sinha, Brittany Marie Ward, Sophie Warken, Haiwei Zhang, and SISAL Working Group members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2579–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2579-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an updated version of the SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and Analysis) database. This new version contains isotopic data from 691 speleothem records from 294 cave sites and new age–depth models, including their uncertainties, for 512 speleothems.
Bronwen L. Konecky, Nicholas P. McKay, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Laia Comas-Bru, Emilie P. Dassié, Kristine L. DeLong, Georgina M. Falster, Matt J. Fischer, Matthew D. Jones, Lukas Jonkers, Darrell S. Kaufman, Guillaume Leduc, Shreyas R. Managave, Belen Martrat, Thomas Opel, Anais J. Orsi, Judson W. Partin, Hussein R. Sayani, Elizabeth K. Thomas, Diane M. Thompson, Jonathan J. Tyler, Nerilie J. Abram, Alyssa R. Atwood, Olivier Cartapanis, Jessica L. Conroy, Mark A. Curran, Sylvia G. Dee, Michael Deininger, Dmitry V. Divine, Zoltán Kern, Trevor J. Porter, Samantha L. Stevenson, Lucien von Gunten, and Iso2k Project Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2261–2288, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2261-2020, 2020
Laia Comas-Bru and Armand Hernández
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2329–2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2329-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2329-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This review presents new EOF-based monthly indices of the east Atlantic and the Scandinavian patterns covering the period from 1851 to present. The paper also includes a comparison with their analogous instrumental indices, provides insights into the reasons why different sources of data may give slightly different time series and demonstrates that using these patterns to explain climate variability beyond the winter season needs to be done carefully due to their non-stationary behaviour.
Kamolphat Atsawawaranunt, Laia Comas-Bru, Sahar Amirnezhad Mozhdehi, Michael Deininger, Sandy P. Harrison, Andy Baker, Meighan Boyd, Nikita Kaushal, Syed Masood Ahmad, Yassine Ait Brahim, Monica Arienzo, Petra Bajo, Kerstin Braun, Yuval Burstyn, Sakonvan Chawchai, Wuhui Duan, István Gábor Hatvani, Jun Hu, Zoltán Kern, Inga Labuhn, Matthew Lachniet, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Andrew Lorrey, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Robyn Pickering, Nick Scroxton, and SISAL Working Group Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1687–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1687-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1687-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is an overview of the contents of the SISAL database and its structure. The database contains oxygen and carbon isotope measurements from 371 individual speleothem records and 10 composite records from 174 cave systems from around the world. The SISAL database is created by a collective effort of the members of the Past Global Changes SISAL working group, which aims to provide a comprehensive compilation of speleothem isotope records for climate reconstruction and model evaluation.
Hu Yang, Xiaoxu Shi, Xulong Wang, Qingsong Liu, Yi Zhong, Xiaodong Liu, Youbin Sun, Yanjun Cai, Fei Liu, Gerrit Lohmann, Martin Werner, Zhimin Jian, Tainã M. L. Pinho, Hai Cheng, Lijuan Lu, Jiping Liu, Chao-Yuan Yang, Qinghua Yang, Yongyun Hu, Xing Cheng, Jingyu Zhang, and Dake Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2778, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
The precession driven low-latitude hydrological cycle is not paced by hemispheric summer insolation, but shifting perihelion.
Mathurin A. Choblet, Janica C. Bühler, Valdir F. Novello, Nathan J. Steiger, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 20, 2117–2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Past climate reconstructions are essential for understanding climate mechanisms and drivers. Our focus is on the South American continent over the past 2000 years. We offer a new reconstruction that particularly utilizes data from speleothems, previously absent from continent-wide reconstructions. We use paleoclimate data assimilation, a reconstruction method that combines information from climate archives and climate simulations.
Giuliano Dreossi, Mauro Masiol, Barbara Stenni, Daniele Zannoni, Claudio Scarchilli, Virginia Ciardini, Mathieu Casado, Amaëlle Landais, Martin Werner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Giampietro Casasanta, Massimo Del Guasta, Vittoria Posocco, and Carlo Barbante
The Cryosphere, 18, 3911–3931, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3911-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes have been extensively used to reconstruct past temperatures, with precipitation representing the input signal of the isotopic records in ice cores. We present a 10-year record of stable isotopes in daily precipitation at Concordia Station: this is the longest record for inland Antarctica and represents a benchmark for quantifying post-depositional processes and improving the paleoclimate interpretation of ice cores.
Kieran M. R. Hunt and Sandy P. Harrison
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2128, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we train machine learning models on tree rings, speleothems, and instrumental rainfall to estimate seasonal monsoon rainfall over India over the last 500 years. Our models highlight multidecadal droughts in the mid-seventeenth and nineteenth centuries, and we link these to historical famines. Using techniques from explainable AI, we show our models use known relationships between local hydroclimate and the monsoon circulation.
Sina Panitz, Michael Rogerson, Jack Longman, Nick Scroxton, Tim J. Lawson, Tim C. Atkinson, Vasile Ersek, James Baldini, Lisa Baldini, Stuart Umbo, Mahjoor A. Lone, Gideon M. Henderson, and Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-48, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-48, 2024
Preprint under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Reconstructions of past glaciations tell us about how ice sheets grow and retreat. In this study, we use speleothems (cave deposits, e.g., stalagmites) in the British Isles to help constrain the extent of past glaciations both in time and space. Speleothems require liquid water to grow, and therefore, their presence indicates the absence of ice above the cave. By dating these speleothems we can improve existing reconstructions of past ice sheets.
Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Nils Weitzel, Maximilian May, Lukas Jonkers, Andrew M. Dolman, and Kira Rehfeld
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1387, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore past global temperatures, critical for climate change comprehension. We devise a method to test temperature reconstruction using climate simulations. Uncertainties, mainly from past temperature measurement methods and age determination, impact reconstructions over time. While more data enhances accuracy for long-term trends, high quality data are more important for short-term precision. Our study lays the groundwork for better reconstructions and suggests avenues for improvement.
Elisa Ziegler, Nils Weitzel, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lauren Gregoire, Ruza Ivanovic, Paul J. Valdes, Christian Wirths, and Kira Rehfeld
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1396, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1396, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During the Last Deglaciation global surface temperature rose by about 4–7 degrees over several millennia. We show that changes of year-to-year up to century-to-century fluctuations of temperature and precipitation during the Deglaciation were mostly larger than during either the preceding or succeeding more stable periods in fifteen climate model simulations. The analysis demonstrates how ice sheets, meltwater and volcanism influence simulated variability to inform future simulation protocols.
Luke Fionn Sweeney, Sandy P. Harrison, and Marc Vander Linden
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1523, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in tree cover across Europe during the Holocene are reconstructed from fossil pollen data using a model developed with modern observations of tree cover and modern pollen assemblages. There is a rapid increase in tree cover after the last glacial with maximum cover during the mid-Holocene and a decline thereafter; the timing of the maximum and the speed of the increase and subsequent decrease vary regionally likely reflecting differences in climate trajectories and human influence.
Fang Li, Xiang Song, Sandy P. Harrison, Jennifer R. Marlon, Zhongda Lin, L. Ruby Leung, Jörg Schwinger, Virginie Marécal, Shiyu Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Xiao Dong, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, and Roland Séférian
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-85, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 CMIP6 ESMs. Most models reproduce global total, spatial pattern, seasonality, and regional historical changes well, but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire sensitivity to wet-dry conditions. They addressed three critical issues in CMIP5. We present targeted guidance for fire scheme development and methodologies to generate reliable fire projections.
Qinggang Gao, Emilie Capron, Louise C. Sime, Rachael H. Rhodes, Rahul Sivankutty, Xu Zhang, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Martin Werner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1261, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Marine sediment and ice core records suggest a warmer Southern Ocean and Antarctica at the early last interglacial, ~127 thousand years ago. However, when only forced by orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations during that period, state-of-the-art climate models do not reproduce the magnitude of warming. Here we show that much of the warming at southern mid-to-high latitudes can be reproduced by a UK climate model HadCM3 with a 3000-year freshwater forcing over the North Atlantic.
Nikita Kaushal, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Micah Wilhelm, Khalil Azennoud, Janica C. Bühler, Kerstin Braun, Yassine Ait Brahim, Andy Baker, Yuval Burstyn, Laia Comas-Bru, Jens Fohlmeister, Yonaton Goldsmith, Sandy P. Harrison, István G. Hatvani, Kira Rehfeld, Magdalena Ritzau, Vanessa Skiba, Heather M. Stoll, József G. Szűcs, Péter Tanos, Pauline C. Treble, Vitor Azevedo, Jonathan L. Baker, Andrea Borsato, Sakonvan Chawchai, Andrea Columbu, Laura Endres, Jun Hu, Zoltán Kern, Alena Kimbrough, Koray Koç, Monika Markowska, Belen Martrat, Syed Masood Ahmad, Carole Nehme, Valdir Felipe Novello, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Jiaoyang Ruan, Natasha Sekhon, Nitesh Sinha, Carol V. Tadros, Benjamin H. Tiger, Sophie Warken, Annabel Wolf, Haiwei Zhang, and SISAL Working Group members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1933–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1933-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1933-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Speleothems are a popular, multi-proxy climate archive that provide regional to global insights into past hydroclimate trends with precise chronologies. We present an update to the SISAL (Speleothem Isotopes
Synthesis and AnaLysis) database, SISALv3, which, for the first time, contains speleothem trace element records, in addition to an update to the stable isotope records available in previous versions of the database, cumulatively providing data from 365 globally distributed sites.
Synthesis and AnaLysis) database, SISALv3, which, for the first time, contains speleothem trace element records, in addition to an update to the stable isotope records available in previous versions of the database, cumulatively providing data from 365 globally distributed sites.
Amaelle Landais, Cécile Agosta, Françoise Vimeux, Olivier Magand, Cyrielle Solis, Alexandre Cauquoin, Niels Dutrievoz, Camille Risi, Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos, Elise Fourré, Olivier Cattani, Olivier Jossoud, Bénédicte Minster, Frédéric Prié, Mathieu Casado, Aurélien Dommergue, Yann Bertrand, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4611–4634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4611-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4611-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have monitored water vapor isotopes since January 2020 on Amsterdam Island in the Indian Ocean. We show 11 periods associated with abrupt negative excursions of water vapor δ18Ο. Six of these events show a decrease in gaseous elemental mercury, suggesting subsidence of air from a higher altitude. Accurately representing the water isotopic signal during these cold fronts is a real challenge for the atmospheric components of Earth system models equipped with water isotopes.
Nils Weitzel, Heather Andres, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lukas Jonkers, Oliver Bothe, Elisa Ziegler, Thomas Kleinen, André Paul, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 20, 865–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ability of climate models to faithfully reproduce past warming episodes is a valuable test considering potentially large future warming. We develop a new method to compare simulations of the last deglaciation with temperature reconstructions. We find that reconstructions differ more between regions than simulations, potentially due to deficiencies in the simulation design, models, or reconstructions. Our work is a promising step towards benchmarking simulations of past climate transitions.
Moein Mellat, Amy R. Macfarlane, Camilla F. Brunello, Martin Werner, Martin Schneebeli, Ruzica Dadic, Stefanie Arndt, Kaisa-Riikka Mustonen, Jeffrey M. Welker, and Hanno Meyer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-719, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, utilizing data from the Arctic MOSAiC expedition, reveals how snow on Arctic sea ice changes due to weather conditions. By analyzing snow samples collected over a year, we found differences in snow layers that tell us about their origins and how they've been affected by the environment. We discovered variations in snow and vapour that reflect the influence of weather patterns and surface processes like wind and sublimation.
Inès Ollivier, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Barbara Stenni, Laurent Arnaud, Mathieu Casado, Alexandre Cauquoin, Giuliano Dreossi, Christophe Genthon, Bénédicte Minster, Ghislain Picard, Martin Werner, and Amaëlle Landais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-685, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The role of post-depositional processes taking place at the ice sheet's surface on the water stable isotope signal measured in polar ice cores is not fully understood. Using field observations and modelling results, we show that the original precipitation isotopic signal at Dome C, East Antarctica, is modified by post-depositional processes and provide the first quantitative estimation of their mean impact on the isotopic signal observed in the snow.
Mengmeng Liu, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-12, 2024
Preprint under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Dansgaard-Oeschger events were large and rapid warming events that occurred multiple times during the last ice age. We show that changes in the northern extratropics and the southern extratropics were anti-phased, with warming over most of the north and cooling in the south. The reconstructions do not provide evidence for a change in seasonality in temperature. However, they do indicate that warming was generally accompanied by wetter conditions and cooling by drier conditions.
Julie Christin Schindlbeck-Belo, Matthew Toohey, Marion Jegen, Steffen Kutterolf, and Kira Rehfeld
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1063–1081, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1063-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1063-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic forcing of climate resulting from major explosive eruptions is a dominant natural driver of past climate variability. To support model studies of the potential impacts of explosive volcanism on climate variability across timescales, we present an ensemble reconstruction of volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection over the last 140 000 years that is based primarily on tephra records.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos, Elise Fourré, Cécile Agosta, Mathieu Casado, Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, Benedicte Minster, Frédéric Prié, Olivier Jossoud, Leila Petit, and Amaëlle Landais
The Cryosphere, 17, 5241–5254, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5241-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the face of global warming, understanding the changing water cycle and temperatures in polar regions is crucial. These factors directly impact the balance of ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic. By studying the composition of water vapor, we gain insights into climate variations. Our 2-year study at Dumont d’Urville station, Adélie Land, offers valuable data to refine models. Additionally, we demonstrate how modeling aids in interpreting signals from ice core samples in the region.
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
Huiying Xu, Han Wang, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 20, 4511–4525, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Leaf carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) are crucial elements in leaf construction and physiological processes. This study reconciled the roles of phylogeny, species identity, and climate in stoichiometric traits at individual and community levels. The variations in community-level leaf N and C : N ratio were captured by optimality-based models using climate data. Our results provide an approach to improve the representation of leaf stoichiometry in vegetation models to better couple N with C cycling.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Hu Yang, Roberta D'Agostino, Jiping Liu, Chaoyuan Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 19, 2157–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marks the most recent extremely cold and dry time period of our planet. Using AWI-ESM, we quantify the relative importance of Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHG) and ice sheets (IS) in determining the LGM climate. Our results suggest that both GHG and IS play important roles in shaping the LGM temperature. Continental ice sheets exert a major control on precipitation, atmospheric dynamics, and the intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Esmeralda Cruz-Silva, Sandy P. Harrison, I. Colin Prentice, Elena Marinova, Patrick J. Bartlein, Hans Renssen, and Yurui Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 2093–2108, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2093-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examined 71 pollen records (12.3 ka to present) in the eastern Mediterranean, reconstructing climate changes. Over 9000 years, winters gradually warmed due to orbital factors. Summer temperatures peaked at 4.5–5 ka, likely declining because of ice sheets. Moisture increased post-11 kyr, remaining high from 10–6 kyr before a slow decrease. Climate models face challenges in replicating moisture transport.
Olivia Haas, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 20, 3981–3995, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the impact of CO2 and climate on global patterns of burnt area, fire size, and intensity under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions using three climate scenarios. Climate change alone did not produce the observed LGM reduction in burnt area, but low CO2 did through reducing vegetation productivity. Fire intensity was sensitive to CO2 but strongly affected by changes in atmospheric dryness. Low CO2 caused smaller fires; climate had the opposite effect except in the driest scenario.
Xiaoxu Shi, Alexandre Cauquoin, Gerrit Lohmann, Lukas Jonkers, Qiang Wang, Hu Yang, Yuchen Sun, and Martin Werner
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5153–5178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new climate model with isotopic capabilities and simulated the pre-industrial and mid-Holocene periods. Despite certain regional model biases, the modeled isotope composition is in good agreement with observations and reconstructions. Based on our analyses, the observed isotope–temperature relationship in polar regions may have a summertime bias. Using daily model outputs, we developed a novel isotope-based approach to determine the onset date of the West African summer monsoon.
Giulia Mengoli, Sandy P. Harrison, and I. Colin Prentice
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1261, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Soil water availability affects plant carbon uptake by reducing leaf area and/or by closing stomata, which reduces its efficiency. We present a new formulation of how climatic dryness reduces both maximum carbon uptake and the soil-moisture threshold below which it declines further. This formulation illustrates how plants adapt their water conservation strategy to thrive in dry climates, and is step towards a better representation of soil-moisture effects in climate models.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Takashi Obase, Wing-Le Chan, André Paul, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 19, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1275-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1275-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes are tracers of climate processes occurring in the hydrological cycle. They are widely used to reconstruct the past variations of polar temperature before the instrumental era thanks to their measurements in ice cores. However, the relationship between measured isotopes and temperature has large uncertainties. In our study, we investigate how the sea surface conditions (temperature, sea ice, ocean circulation) impact this relationship for a cold to warm climate change.
Mengmeng Liu, Yicheng Shen, Penelope González-Sampériz, Graciela Gil-Romera, Cajo J. F. ter Braak, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 19, 803–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-803-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed the Holocene climates in the Iberian Peninsula using a large pollen data set and found that the west–east moisture gradient was much flatter than today. We also found that the winter was much colder, which can be expected from the low winter insolation during the Holocene. However, summer temperature did not follow the trend of summer insolation, instead, it was strongly correlated with moisture.
Christian Wirths, Elisa Ziegler, and Kira Rehfeld
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-86, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We compare Holocene temperature trends from reconstructions and global climate models of different complexities. We find that models of all complexities disagree with mid-Holocene trends in reconstructions, and we show that this disagreement is largely independent of the type of reconstruction. From our results we conclude that a seasonal bias in the reconstructions is unlikely as a full explanation for the disagreement.
Jiajia Wang, Hongxi Pang, Shuangye Wu, Spruce W. Schoenemann, Ryu Uemura, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Sentia Goursaud Oger, Summer Rupper, and Shugui Hou
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-384, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-384, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopic observations in surface snow over Antarctica provide a basis for validating isotopic models and interpreting Antarctic ice core records. This study presents a new compilation of Antarctic surface snow isotopic dataset based on published and unpublished sources. The database has a wide range of potential applications in studying spatial distribution of water isotopes, model validation, and reconstruction and interpretation of Antarctic ice core records.
Antoine Grisart, Mathieu Casado, Vasileios Gkinis, Bo Vinther, Philippe Naveau, Mathieu Vrac, Thomas Laepple, Bénédicte Minster, Frederic Prié, Barbara Stenni, Elise Fourré, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Jean Jouzel, Martin Werner, Katy Pol, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Maria Hoerhold, Trevor Popp, and Amaelle Landais
Clim. Past, 18, 2289–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a compilation of high-resolution (11 cm) water isotopic records, including published and new measurements, for the last 800 000 years from the EPICA Dome C ice core, Antarctica. Using this new combined water isotopes (δ18O and δD) dataset, we study the variability and possible influence of diffusion at the multi-decadal to multi-centennial scale. We observe a stronger variability at the onset of the interglacial interval corresponding to a warm period.
Janica C. Bühler, Josefine Axelsson, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Jens Fohlmeister, Allegra N. LeGrande, Madhavan Midhun, Jesper Sjolte, Martin Werner, Kei Yoshimura, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 18, 1625–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We collected and standardized the output of five isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium and assess differences and similarities to records from a global speleothem database. Modeled isotope variations mostly arise from temperature differences. While lower-resolution speleothems do not capture extreme changes to the extent of models, they show higher variability on multi-decadal timescales. As no model excels in all comparisons, we advise a multi-model approach where possible.
Yicheng Shen, Luke Sweeney, Mengmeng Liu, Jose Antonio Lopez Saez, Sebastián Pérez-Díaz, Reyes Luelmo-Lautenschlaeger, Graciela Gil-Romera, Dana Hoefer, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Heike Schneider, I. Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 18, 1189–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1189-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1189-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a method to reconstruct burnt area using a relationship between pollen and charcoal abundances and the calibration of charcoal abundance using modern observations of burnt area. We use this method to reconstruct changes in burnt area over the past 12 000 years from sites in Iberia. We show that regional changes in burnt area reflect known changes in climate, with a high burnt area during warming intervals and low burnt area when the climate was cooler and/or wetter than today.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Sandy P. Harrison, Roberto Villegas-Diaz, Esmeralda Cruz-Silva, Daniel Gallagher, David Kesner, Paul Lincoln, Yicheng Shen, Luke Sweeney, Daniele Colombaroli, Adam Ali, Chéïma Barhoumi, Yves Bergeron, Tatiana Blyakharchuk, Přemysl Bobek, Richard Bradshaw, Jennifer L. Clear, Sambor Czerwiński, Anne-Laure Daniau, John Dodson, Kevin J. Edwards, Mary E. Edwards, Angelica Feurdean, David Foster, Konrad Gajewski, Mariusz Gałka, Michelle Garneau, Thomas Giesecke, Graciela Gil Romera, Martin P. Girardin, Dana Hoefer, Kangyou Huang, Jun Inoue, Eva Jamrichová, Nauris Jasiunas, Wenying Jiang, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Monika Karpińska-Kołaczek, Piotr Kołaczek, Niina Kuosmanen, Mariusz Lamentowicz, Martin Lavoie, Fang Li, Jianyong Li, Olga Lisitsyna, José Antonio López-Sáez, Reyes Luelmo-Lautenschlaeger, Gabriel Magnan, Eniko Katalin Magyari, Alekss Maksims, Katarzyna Marcisz, Elena Marinova, Jenn Marlon, Scott Mensing, Joanna Miroslaw-Grabowska, Wyatt Oswald, Sebastián Pérez-Díaz, Ramón Pérez-Obiol, Sanna Piilo, Anneli Poska, Xiaoguang Qin, Cécile C. Remy, Pierre J. H. Richard, Sakari Salonen, Naoko Sasaki, Hieke Schneider, William Shotyk, Migle Stancikaite, Dace Šteinberga, Normunds Stivrins, Hikaru Takahara, Zhihai Tan, Liva Trasune, Charles E. Umbanhowar, Minna Väliranta, Jüri Vassiljev, Xiayun Xiao, Qinghai Xu, Xin Xu, Edyta Zawisza, Yan Zhao, Zheng Zhou, and Jordan Paillard
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1109–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1109-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a new global data set of charcoal preserved in sediments that can be used to examine how fire regimes have changed during past millennia and to investigate what caused these changes. The individual records have been standardised, and new age models have been constructed to allow better comparison across sites. The data set contains 1681 records from 1477 sites worldwide.
Stephan Krätschmer, Michèlle van der Does, Frank Lamy, Gerrit Lohmann, Christoph Völker, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 18, 67–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use an atmospheric model coupled to an aerosol model to investigate the global mineral dust cycle with a focus on the Southern Hemisphere for warmer and colder climate states and compare our results to observational data. Our findings suggest that Australia is the predominant source of dust deposited over Antarctica during the last glacial maximum. In addition, we find that the southward transport of dust from all sources to Antarctica happens at lower altitudes in colder climates.
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
Saeid Bagheri Dastgerdi, Melanie Behrens, Jean-Louis Bonne, Maria Hörhold, Gerrit Lohmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 15, 4745–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, for the first time, water vapour isotope measurements in Antarctica for all seasons of a year are performed. Local temperature is identified as the main driver of δ18O and δD variability. A similar slope of the temperature–δ18O relationship in vapour and surface snow points to the water vapour isotope content as a potential key driver. This dataset can be used as a new dataset to evaluate the capability of isotope-enhanced climate models.
Marcus Breil, Emanuel Christner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, Melanie Karremann, and Gerd Schädler
Clim. Past, 17, 1685–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1685-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1685-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time an isotope-enabled regional climate simulation for Greenland is performed for the mid-Holocene. Simulation results are compared with observed isotope ratios in ice cores. Compared to global climate simulations, a regional downscaling improves the agreement with measured isotope concentrations. Thus, an isotope-enabled regional climate simulation constitutes a useful supplement to reconstruct regional paleo-climate conditions during the mid-Holocene in Greenland.
Thomas Münch, Martin Werner, and Thomas Laepple
Clim. Past, 17, 1587–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1587-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse Holocene climate model simulation data to find the locations of Antarctic ice cores which are best suited to reconstruct local- to regional-scale temperatures. We find that the spatial decorrelation scales of the temperature variations and of the noise from precipitation intermittency set an effective sampling length scale. Following this, a single core should be located at the
target site for the temperature reconstruction, and a second one optimally lies more than 500 km away.
Raphaël Hébert, Kira Rehfeld, and Thomas Laepple
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 311–328, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-311-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-311-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate proxy data are essential for broadening our understanding of climate variability. There remain, however, challenges for traditional methods of variability analysis to be applied to such data, which are usually irregular. We perform a comparative analysis of different methods of scaling analysis, which provide variability estimates as a function of timescales, applied to irregular paleoclimate proxy data.
Alexander Kuhn-Régnier, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Peer Nowack, Matthias Forkel, I. Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 18, 3861–3879, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3861-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3861-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Along with current climate, vegetation, and human influences, long-term accumulation of biomass affects fires. Here, we find that including the influence of antecedent vegetation and moisture improves our ability to predict global burnt area. Additionally, the length of the preceding period which needs to be considered for accurate predictions varies across regions.
Sarah E. Parker, Sandy P. Harrison, Laia Comas-Bru, Nikita Kaushal, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 1119–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional trends in the oxygen isotope (δ18O) composition of stalagmites reflect several climate processes. We compare stalagmite δ18O records from monsoon regions and model simulations to identify the causes of δ18O variability over the last 12 000 years, and between glacial and interglacial states. Precipitation changes explain the glacial–interglacial δ18O changes in all monsoon regions; Holocene trends are due to a combination of precipitation, atmospheric circulation and temperature changes.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Elisa Ziegler and Kira Rehfeld
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2843–2866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2843-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Past climate changes are the only record of how the climate responds to changes in conditions on Earth, but simulations with complex climate models are challenging. We extended a simple climate model such that it simulates the development of temperatures over time. In the model, changes in carbon dioxide and ice distribution affect the simulated temperatures the most. The model is very efficient and can therefore be used to examine past climate changes happening over long periods of time.
Janica C. Bühler, Carla Roesch, Moritz Kirschner, Louise Sime, Max D. Holloway, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 17, 985–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present three new isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium (850–1850 CE) and compare them to records from a global speleothem database. Offsets between the simulated and measured oxygen isotope ratios are fairly small. While modeled oxygen isotope ratios are more variable on decadal timescales, proxy records are more variable on (multi-)centennial timescales. This could be due to a lack of long-term variability in complex model simulations, but proxy biases cannot be excluded.
Iris Thurnherr, Katharina Hartmuth, Lukas Jansing, Josué Gehring, Maxi Boettcher, Irina Gorodetskaya, Martin Werner, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 331–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are important for the transport of moisture from low to high latitudes. In this study, we investigate how the isotopic composition of water vapour is affected by horizontal temperature advection associated with extratropical cyclones using measurements and modelling. It is shown that air–sea moisture fluxes induced by this horizontal temperature advection lead to the strong variability observed in the isotopic composition of water vapour in the marine boundary layer.
André Paul, Stefan Mulitza, Rüdiger Stein, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-805-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Maps and fields of near-sea-surface temperature differences between the past and present can be used to visualize and quantify climate changes and perform simulations with climate models. We used a statistical method to map sparse and scattered data for the Last Glacial Maximum time period (23 000 to 19 000 years before present) to a regular grid. The estimated global and tropical cooling would imply an equilibrium climate sensitivity in the lower to middle part of the currently accepted range.
Nick Scroxton, Stephen J. Burns, David McGee, Laurie R. Godfrey, Lovasoa Ranivoharimanana, and Peterson Faina
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-138, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-138, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The end of the Harappan civilization in the Indus Valley around 4,200 years ago has been attributed to monsoon failure associated with a global megadrought. Using a suite of high resolution paleoclimate records from around the Indian Ocean basin we find that two consecutive droughts contributed to the end of the Harappa. A winter drought starting 4,200 years ago was followed by monsoon failure at 3,900 years ago. The double hit caused civilization decline first, and abandonment later.
Nick Scroxton, Stephen J. Burns, David McGee, Laurie R. Godfrey, Lovasoa Ranivoharimanana, and Peterson Faina
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-137, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The 4.2 kyr climatic event caused drought in the Mediterranean and Middle East and the collapse of the Akkadian Civilization. Outside of this region the global footprint of this event, be it drought or flood conditions, is poorly understood. This study uses a stalagmite from Madagascar to determine how the 4.2 kyr event influenced the South-East African Monsoon. We find drought in Madagascar and around Lake Malawi but wet conditions elsewhere, a pattern that resembles modern climate variability.
Laia Comas-Bru, Kira Rehfeld, Carla Roesch, Sahar Amirnezhad-Mozhdehi, Sandy P. Harrison, Kamolphat Atsawawaranunt, Syed Masood Ahmad, Yassine Ait Brahim, Andy Baker, Matthew Bosomworth, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Yuval Burstyn, Andrea Columbu, Michael Deininger, Attila Demény, Bronwyn Dixon, Jens Fohlmeister, István Gábor Hatvani, Jun Hu, Nikita Kaushal, Zoltán Kern, Inga Labuhn, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Andrew Lorrey, Belen Martrat, Valdir Felipe Novello, Jessica Oster, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Denis Scholz, Nick Scroxton, Nitesh Sinha, Brittany Marie Ward, Sophie Warken, Haiwei Zhang, and SISAL Working Group members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2579–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2579-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an updated version of the SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and Analysis) database. This new version contains isotopic data from 691 speleothem records from 294 cave sites and new age–depth models, including their uncertainties, for 512 speleothems.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Bronwen L. Konecky, Nicholas P. McKay, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Laia Comas-Bru, Emilie P. Dassié, Kristine L. DeLong, Georgina M. Falster, Matt J. Fischer, Matthew D. Jones, Lukas Jonkers, Darrell S. Kaufman, Guillaume Leduc, Shreyas R. Managave, Belen Martrat, Thomas Opel, Anais J. Orsi, Judson W. Partin, Hussein R. Sayani, Elizabeth K. Thomas, Diane M. Thompson, Jonathan J. Tyler, Nerilie J. Abram, Alyssa R. Atwood, Olivier Cartapanis, Jessica L. Conroy, Mark A. Curran, Sylvia G. Dee, Michael Deininger, Dmitry V. Divine, Zoltán Kern, Trevor J. Porter, Samantha L. Stevenson, Lucien von Gunten, and Iso2k Project Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2261–2288, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2261-2020, 2020
Jesper Sjolte, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Raimund Muscheler, Christophe Sturm, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 16, 1737–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we investigate seasonal climate reconstructions produced by matching climate model output to ice core and tree-ring data, and we evaluate the model–data reconstructions against meteorological observations. The reconstructions capture the main patterns of variability in sea level pressure and temperature in summer and winter. The performance of the reconstructions depends on seasonal climate variability itself, and definitions of seasons can be optimized to capture this variability.
Jean-Louis Bonne, Hanno Meyer, Melanie Behrens, Julia Boike, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Benjamin Rabe, Toni Schmidt, Lutz Schönicke, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10493–10511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces 2 years of continuous near-surface in situ observations of the stable isotopic composition of water vapour in parallel with precipitation in north-eastern Siberia. We evaluate the atmospheric transport of moisture towards the region of our observations with simulations constrained by meteorological reanalyses and use this information to interpret the temporal variations of the vapour isotopic composition from seasonal to synoptic timescales.
Stijn Hantson, Douglas I. Kelley, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sally Archibald, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Thomas Hickler, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, I. Colin Prentice, Tim Sheehan, Stephen Sitch, Lina Teckentrup, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Global fire–vegetation models are widely used, but there has been limited evaluation of how well they represent various aspects of fire regimes. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of simulations made by nine FireMIP models in order to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. While some FireMIP models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime, no model clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.
Kira Rehfeld, Raphaël Hébert, Juan M. Lora, Marcus Lofverstrom, and Chris M. Brierley
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 447–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Under continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, it is likely that global mean surface temperature will continue to increase. Little is known about changes in climate variability. We analyze surface climate variability and compare it to mean change in colder- and warmer-than-present climate model simulations. In most locations, but not on subtropical land, simulated temperature variability up to decadal timescales decreases with mean temperature, and precipitation variability increases.
Sean F. Cleator, Sandy P. Harrison, Nancy K. Nichols, I. Colin Prentice, and Ian Roulstone
Clim. Past, 16, 699–712, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-699-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-699-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present geographically explicit reconstructions of seasonal temperature and annual moisture variables at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21 000 years ago. The reconstructions use existing site-based estimates of climate, interpolated in space and time in a physically consistent way using climate model simulations. The reconstructions give a much better picture of the LGM climate and will provide a robust evaluation of how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate large climate changes.
Benjamin D. Stocker, Han Wang, Nicholas G. Smith, Sandy P. Harrison, Trevor F. Keenan, David Sandoval, Tyler Davis, and I. Colin Prentice
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1545–1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1545-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1545-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating terrestrial photosynthesis relies on satellite data of vegetation cover and models simulating the efficiency by which light absorbed by vegetation is used for CO2 assimilation. This paper presents the P-model, a light use efficiency model derived from a carbon–water optimality principle, and evaluates its predictions of ecosystem-level photosynthesis against globally distributed observations. The model is implemented and openly accessible as an R package (rpmodel).
Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-José Gaillard, Benjamin D. Stocker, Marc Vander Linden, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Oliver Boles, Pascale Braconnot, Andria Dawson, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kastner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Erick Robinson, Nicki J. Whitehouse, Marco Madella, and Kathleen D. Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Past Global Changes LandCover6k initiative will use archaeological records to refine scenarios of land use and land cover change through the Holocene to reduce the uncertainties about the impacts of human-induced changes before widespread industrialization. We describe how archaeological data are used to map land use change and how the maps can be evaluated using independent palaeoenvironmental data. We propose simulations to test land use and land cover change impacts on past climates.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Lina Teckentrup, Sandy P. Harrison, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Joe R. Melton, Matthew Forrest, Fang Li, Chao Yue, Almut Arneth, Thomas Hickler, Stephen Sitch, and Gitta Lasslop
Biogeosciences, 16, 3883–3910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study compares simulated burned area of seven global vegetation models provided by the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) since 1900. We investigate the influence of five forcing factors: atmospheric CO2, population density, land–use change, lightning and climate.
We find that the anthropogenic factors lead to the largest spread between models. Trends due to climate are mostly not significant but climate strongly influences the inter-annual variability of burned area.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Suzanne Preunkert, Michel Legrand, Bénédicte Minster, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 13, 1297–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1297-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1297-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We report new water stable isotope records from the first highly resolved firn core drilled in Adélie Land and covering 1998–2014. Using an updated database, we show that mean values are in line with the range of coastal values. Statistical analyses show no relationship between our record and local surface air temperature. Atmospheric back trajectories and isotopic simulations suggest that water stable isotopes in Adélie provide a fingerprint of the variability of atmospheric dynamics.
François Klein, Nerilie J. Abram, Mark A. J. Curran, Hugues Goosse, Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Andrew Moy, Raphael Neukom, Anaïs Orsi, Jesper Sjolte, Nathan Steiger, Barbara Stenni, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
Guangqi Li, Sandy P. Harrison, and I. Colin Prentice
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-63, 2019
Publication in BG not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Current methods of removing age effect from tree-ring are influenced by sampling biases – older trees are more abundantly sampled for recent decades, when the strongest environmental change happens. New technique of extracting environment-driven signals from tree ring is specifically designed to overcome this bias, drawing on theoretical tree growth. It removes sampling-bias effectively and shows consistent relationships between growth and climates through time and across two conifer species.
Dongyang Wei, Penélope González-Sampériz, Graciela Gil-Romera, Sandy P. Harrison, and I. Colin Prentice
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-16, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
El Cañizar de Villarquemado provides a pollen record from semi-arid Spain since before the last interglacial. We use modern pollen–climate relationships to reconstruct changes in seasonal temperature and moisture, accounting for CO2 effects on plants, and show coherent climate changes on glacial–interglacial and orbital timescales. The low glacial CO2 means moisture changes are less extreme than suggested by the vegetation shifts, and driven by evapotranspiration rather than rainfall changes.
Matthias Forkel, Niels Andela, Sandy P. Harrison, Gitta Lasslop, Margreet van Marle, Emilio Chuvieco, Wouter Dorigo, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Fang Li, Joe Melton, Stephen Sitch, Chao Yue, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 16, 57–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Weather, humans, and vegetation control the occurrence of fires. In this study we find that global fire–vegetation models underestimate the strong increase of burned area with higher previous-season plant productivity in comparison to satellite-derived relationships.
Matthias M. May and Kira Rehfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-1-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Current CO2 emission rates are incompatible with the 2 °C target for global warming. Negative emission technologies are therefore an important basis for climate policy scenarios. We show that photoelectrochemical CO2 reduction might be a viable, high-efficiency alternative to biomass-based approaches, which reduce competition for arable land. To develop them, chemical reactions have to be optimized for CO2 removal, which deviates from energetic efficiency optimization in solar fuel applications.
Laia Comas-Bru and Armand Hernández
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2329–2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2329-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2329-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This review presents new EOF-based monthly indices of the east Atlantic and the Scandinavian patterns covering the period from 1851 to present. The paper also includes a comparison with their analogous instrumental indices, provides insights into the reasons why different sources of data may give slightly different time series and demonstrates that using these patterns to explain climate variability beyond the winter season needs to be done carefully due to their non-stationary behaviour.
Kamolphat Atsawawaranunt, Laia Comas-Bru, Sahar Amirnezhad Mozhdehi, Michael Deininger, Sandy P. Harrison, Andy Baker, Meighan Boyd, Nikita Kaushal, Syed Masood Ahmad, Yassine Ait Brahim, Monica Arienzo, Petra Bajo, Kerstin Braun, Yuval Burstyn, Sakonvan Chawchai, Wuhui Duan, István Gábor Hatvani, Jun Hu, Zoltán Kern, Inga Labuhn, Matthew Lachniet, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Andrew Lorrey, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Robyn Pickering, Nick Scroxton, and SISAL Working Group Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1687–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1687-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1687-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is an overview of the contents of the SISAL database and its structure. The database contains oxygen and carbon isotope measurements from 371 individual speleothem records and 10 composite records from 174 cave systems from around the world. The SISAL database is created by a collective effort of the members of the Past Global Changes SISAL working group, which aims to provide a comprehensive compilation of speleothem isotope records for climate reconstruction and model evaluation.
Jesper Sjolte, Christophe Sturm, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 14, 1179–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical volcanic eruptions and variations in solar activity have been suggested to influence the strength of westerly winds across the North Atlantic. We use Greenland ice core records together with a climate model simulation, and find stronger westerly winds for five winters following tropical volcanic eruptions. We see a delayed response to solar activity of 5 years, and the response to solar minima corresponds well to the cooling pattern during the period known as the Little Ice Age.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Anaïs Orsi, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 14, 923–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-923-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-923-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric general circulation models equipped with water stable isotopes are key tools to explore the links between climate variables and precipitation isotopic composition and thus to quantify past temperature changes using ice core records. Here, we evaluate the skills of ECHAM5-wiso to simulate the spatio-temporal characteristics of Antarctic climate and precipitation isotopic composition at the regional scale, thanks to a database of precipitation and ice core records.
Sandy P. Harrison, Patrick J. Bartlein, Victor Brovkin, Sander Houweling, Silvia Kloster, and I. Colin Prentice
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 663–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature affects fire occurrence and severity. Warming will increase fire-related carbon emissions and thus atmospheric CO2. The size of this feedback is not known. We use charcoal records to estimate pre-industrial fire emissions and a simple land–biosphere model to quantify the feedback. We infer a feedback strength of 5.6 3.2 ppm CO2 per degree of warming and a gain of 0.09 ± 0.05 for a climate sensitivity of 2.8 K. Thus, fire feedback is a large part of the climate–carbon-cycle feedback.
Sebastian G. Mutz, Todd A. Ehlers, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, Christian Stepanek, and Jingmin Li
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 271–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use a climate model and statistics to provide an overview of regional climates from different times in the late Cenozoic. We focus on tectonically active mountain ranges in particular. Our results highlight significant changes in climates throughout the late Cenozoic, which should be taken into consideration when interpreting erosion rates. We also document the differences between model- and proxy-based estimates for late Cenozoic climate change in South America and Tibet.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
María Fernanda Sánchez Goñi, Stéphanie Desprat, Anne-Laure Daniau, Frank C. Bassinot, Josué M. Polanco-Martínez, Sandy P. Harrison, Judy R. M. Allen, R. Scott Anderson, Hermann Behling, Raymonde Bonnefille, Francesc Burjachs, José S. Carrión, Rachid Cheddadi, James S. Clark, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Colin. J. Courtney Mustaphi, Georg H. Debusk, Lydie M. Dupont, Jemma M. Finch, William J. Fletcher, Marco Giardini, Catalina González, William D. Gosling, Laurie D. Grigg, Eric C. Grimm, Ryoma Hayashi, Karin Helmens, Linda E. Heusser, Trevor Hill, Geoffrey Hope, Brian Huntley, Yaeko Igarashi, Tomohisa Irino, Bonnie Jacobs, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Sayuri Kawai, A. Peter Kershaw, Fujio Kumon, Ian T. Lawson, Marie-Pierre Ledru, Anne-Marie Lézine, Ping Mei Liew, Donatella Magri, Robert Marchant, Vasiliki Margari, Francis E. Mayle, G. Merna McKenzie, Patrick Moss, Stefanie Müller, Ulrich C. Müller, Filipa Naughton, Rewi M. Newnham, Tadamichi Oba, Ramón Pérez-Obiol, Roberta Pini, Cesare Ravazzi, Katy H. Roucoux, Stephen M. Rucina, Louis Scott, Hikaru Takahara, Polichronis C. Tzedakis, Dunia H. Urrego, Bas van Geel, B. Guido Valencia, Marcus J. Vandergoes, Annie Vincens, Cathy L. Whitlock, Debra A. Willard, and Masanobu Yamamoto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 679–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-679-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-679-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73–15 ka) plotted against a common chronology; 32 also provide charcoal records. The database allows for the reconstruction of the regional expression, vegetation and fire of past abrupt climate changes that are comparable to those expected in the 21st century. This work is a major contribution to understanding the processes behind rapid climate change.
Matthias Schneider, Christian Borger, Andreas Wiegele, Frank Hase, Omaira E. García, Eliezer Sepúlveda, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 507–525, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-507-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-507-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The characteristics of {H2O,δD} pair space-based remote sensing data depend on the atmospheric and surface conditions, which compromises their usage for model evaluation studies. This paper shows how the problem can be overcome by simulating MUSICA MetOp/IASI {H2O,δD} remote sensing products for any given model atmosphere. The remote sensing retrieval simulator is freely provided as a MATLAB and Python routine.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Susanne Preunkert, Michel Fily, Hubert Gallée, Bruno Jourdain, Michel Legrand, Olivier Magand, Bénédicte Minster, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 11, 343–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-343-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-343-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainty of sea level changes is a challenge. As Antarctica is the biggest water reservoir, it is necessary to know how it will contribute. To be able to simulate it, an understanding of past climate is to be achieved, for instance, by studying the ice cores. As climate change is different in different regions, observations are needed all over the continent. Studying an ice core in Adélie Land, we can conclude that there are no changes there at decadal scale over the period 1947–2007.
Kira Rehfeld, Mathias Trachsel, Richard J. Telford, and Thomas Laepple
Clim. Past, 12, 2255–2270, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2255-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2255-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Indirect evidence on past climate comes from the former composition of ecological communities such as plants, preserved as pollen grains in sediments of lakes. Transfer functions convert relative counts of species to a climatologically meaningful scale (e.g. annual mean temperature in degrees C). We show that the fundamental assumptions in the algorithms impact the reconstruction results in he idealized model world, in particular if the reconstructed variables were not ecologically relevant.
Michael Deininger, Martin Werner, and Frank McDermott
Clim. Past, 12, 2127–2143, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the NAO (Northern Atlantic Oscillation)-related mechanisms that control winter precipitation stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients across Europe. The results show that past longitudinal stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients in European rainfall stored in palaeoclimate archives (e.g. speleothems) can be used to infer the past winter NAO modes from its variations.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Carlos Rocha, Cristina Veiga-Pires, Jan Scholten, Kay Knoeller, Darren R. Gröcke, Liliana Carvalho, Jaime Anibal, and Jean Wilson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3077–3098, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3077-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3077-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We combine radon and stable isotopes in water to determine total submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) in the Ria Formosa and discriminate its component modes. We show that tidal action filters the entire water volume in the lagoon through local beaches 3.5 times a year, driving an estimated 350Ton nitrogen/year into the system. Conversely, fresh groundwater is discharged into the lagoon only occasionally, adding ~ 61 Ton nitrogen/year, but is capable of driving new production in the system.
François Ritter, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Martin Werner, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Anais Orsi, Melanie Behrens, Gerit Birnbaum, Johannes Freitag, Camille Risi, and Sepp Kipfstuhl
The Cryosphere, 10, 1647–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1647-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present successful continuous measurements of water vapor isotopes performed in Antarctica in January 2013. The interest is to understand the impact of the water vapor isotopic composition on the near-surface snow isotopes. Our study reveals a diurnal cycle in the snow isotopic composition in phase with the vapor. This finding suggests fractionation during the sublimation of the ice, which has an important consequence on the interpretation of water isotope variations in ice cores.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
Anna Dittmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Jordan G. Powers, Kevin W. Manning, Martin Werner, and Koji Fujita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6883–6900, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6883-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6883-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
For a better understanding of the stable water isotope data from ice cores, recent time periods have to be analysed, where both measurements and model simulations are available. This was done for Dome Fuji by combining observations, synoptic analysis, back trajectories, and isotopic modelling. It was found that a more northerly moisture source does not necessarily mean a larger temperature difference between source area and deposition site and thus precipitation more depleted in heavy isotopes.
M. Werner, B. Haese, X. Xu, X. Zhang, M. Butzin, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 647–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the first results of a new isotope-enabled GCM set-up, based on the ECHAM5/MPI-OM fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Results of two equilibrium simulations under pre-industrial and Last Glacial Maximum conditions reveal a good to very good agreement with many delta O-18 and delta D observational records, and a remarkable improvement for the modelling of the deuterium excess signal in Antarctic ice cores.
A. V. Gallego-Sala, D. J. Charman, S. P. Harrison, G. Li, and I. C. Prentice
Clim. Past, 12, 129–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-129-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-129-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
It has become a well-established paradigm that blanket bog landscapes in the British Isles are a result of forest clearance by early human populations. We provide a novel test of this hypothesis using results from bioclimatic modelling driven by cimate reconstructions compared with a database of peat initiation dates. Both results show similar patterns of peat initiation over time and space. This suggests that climate was the main driver of blanket bog inception and not human disturbance.
B. A. A. Hoogakker, R. S. Smith, J. S. Singarayer, R. Marchant, I. C. Prentice, J. R. M. Allen, R. S. Anderson, S. A. Bhagwat, H. Behling, O. Borisova, M. Bush, A. Correa-Metrio, A. de Vernal, J. M. Finch, B. Fréchette, S. Lozano-Garcia, W. D. Gosling, W. Granoszewski, E. C. Grimm, E. Grüger, J. Hanselman, S. P. Harrison, T. R. Hill, B. Huntley, G. Jiménez-Moreno, P. Kershaw, M.-P. Ledru, D. Magri, M. McKenzie, U. Müller, T. Nakagawa, E. Novenko, D. Penny, L. Sadori, L. Scott, J. Stevenson, P. J. Valdes, M. Vandergoes, A. Velichko, C. Whitlock, and C. Tzedakis
Clim. Past, 12, 51–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-51-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-51-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use two climate models to test how Earth’s vegetation responded to changes in climate over the last 120 000 years, looking at warm interglacial climates like today, cold ice-age glacial climates, and intermediate climates. The models agree well with observations from pollen, showing smaller forested areas and larger desert areas during cold periods. Forests store most terrestrial carbon; the terrestrial carbon lost during cold climates was most likely relocated to the oceans.
S. Jasechko, A. Lechler, F. S. R. Pausata, P. J. Fawcett, T. Gleeson, D. I. Cendón, J. Galewsky, A. N. LeGrande, C. Risi, Z. D. Sharp, J. M. Welker, M. Werner, and K. Yoshimura
Clim. Past, 11, 1375–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we compile global isotope proxy records of climate changes from the last ice age to the late-Holocene preserved in cave calcite, glacial ice and groundwater aquifers. We show that global patterns of late-Pleistocene to late-Holocene precipitation isotope shifts are consistent with stronger-than-modern isotopic distillation of air masses during the last ice age, likely impacted by larger global temperature differences between the tropics and the poles.
T.-T. Meng, H. Wang, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, J. Ni, and G. Wang
Biogeosciences, 12, 5339–5352, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5339-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5339-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
By analysing the quantitative leaf-traits along extensive temperature and moisture gradients with generalized linear models, we found that metabolism-related traits are universally acclimated to environmental conditions, rather than being fixed within plant functional types. The results strongly support a move towards Dynamic Global Vegetation Models in which continuous, adaptive trait variation provides the fundamental mechanism for changes in ecosystem properties along environmental gradients.
V. Masson-Delmotte, H. C. Steen-Larsen, P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, T. Popp, B. M. Vinther, H. Oerter, A. E. Sveinbjornsdottir, H. Gudlaugsdottir, J. E. Box, S. Falourd, X. Fettweis, H. Gallée, E. Garnier, V. Gkinis, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, N. Paradis, A. Orsi, C. Risi, M. Werner, and J. W. C. White
The Cryosphere, 9, 1481–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The deep NEEM ice core provides the oldest Greenland ice core record, enabling improved understanding of the response of ice core records to local climate. Here, we focus on shallow ice cores providing a stack record of accumulation and water-stable isotopes spanning the past centuries. For the first time, we document the ongoing warming in a Greenland ice core. By combining our data with other Greenland ice cores and model results, we characterise the spatio-temporal patterns of variability.
R. Eichinger, P. Jöckel, S. Brinkop, M. Werner, and S. Lossow
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5537–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, 2015
G. Li, S. P. Harrison, and I. C. Prentice
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-4769-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-4769-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
A. Cauquoin, A. Landais, G. M. Raisbeck, J. Jouzel, L. Bazin, M. Kageyama, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, M. Werner, E. Bard, and ASTER Team
Clim. Past, 11, 355–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-355-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-355-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new 10Be record at EDC between 269 and 355ka. Our 10Be-based accumulation rate is in good agreement with the one associated with the EDC3 timescale except for the warm MIS 9.3 optimum. This suggests that temperature reconstruction from water isotopes may be underestimated by 2.4K for the difference between the MIS 9.3 and present day. The CMIP5-PMIP3 models do not quantitatively reproduce changes in precipitation vs. temperature increase during glacial–interglacial transitions.
N. V. Rokotyan, V. I. Zakharov, K. G. Gribanov, M. Schneider, F.-M. Bréon, J. Jouzel, R. Imasu, M. Werner, M. Butzin, C. Petri, T. Warneke, and J. Notholt
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2567–2580, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2567-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2567-2014, 2014
K. Rehfeld, N. Molkenthin, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 691–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-691-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-691-2014, 2014
L. Tupikina, K. Rehfeld, N. Molkenthin, V. Stolbova, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 705–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-705-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-705-2014, 2014
K. Gribanov, J. Jouzel, V. Bastrikov, J.-L. Bonne, F.-M. Breon, M. Butzin, O. Cattani, V. Masson-Delmotte, N. Rokotyan, M. Werner, and V. Zakharov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5943–5957, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5943-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5943-2014, 2014
M. Butzin, M. Werner, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, C. Frankenberg, K. Gribanov, J. Jouzel, and V. I. Zakharov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5853–5869, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5853-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5853-2014, 2014
N. Molkenthin, K. Rehfeld, V. Stolbova, L. Tupikina, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 651–657, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-651-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-651-2014, 2014
K. Rehfeld and J. Kurths
Clim. Past, 10, 107–122, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-107-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-107-2014, 2014
B. Haese, M. Werner, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1463–1480, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1463-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1463-2013, 2013
G. Lohmann, A. Wackerbarth, P. M. Langebroek, M. Werner, J. Fohlmeister, D. Scholz, and A. Mangini
Clim. Past, 9, 89–98, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-89-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-89-2013, 2013
S. Dietrich, M. Werner, T. Spangehl, and G. Lohmann
Clim. Past, 9, 13–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Millenial/D-O
Hydrological change in southern Australia over 1750 years: a bivalve oxygen isotope record from the Coorong Lagoon
Millennial hydrological variability in the continental northern Neotropics during Marine Isotope Stages (MISs) 3–2 (59–15 cal ka BP) inferred from sediments of Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala
Greenhouse gases modulate the strength of millennial-scale subtropical rainfall, consistent with future predictions
Humidity changes and possible forcing mechanisms over the last millennium in arid Central Asia
Archaeal lipid-inferred paleohydrology and paleotemperature of Lake Chenghai during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition
Differing pre-industrial cooling trends between tree rings and lower-resolution temperature proxies
Dansgaard–Oeschger-like events of the penultimate climate cycle: the loess point of view
1200 years of warm-season temperature variability in central Scandinavia inferred from tree-ring density
Hydroclimatic variability in the Levant during the early last glacial (∼ 117–75 ka) derived from micro-facies analyses of deep Dead Sea sediments
Detailed insight into Arctic climatic variability during MIS 11c at Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Russia
Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 1: Theory
Impact of postglacial warming on borehole reconstructions of last millennium temperatures
Estimating 750 years of temperature variations and uncertainties in the Pyrenees by tree-ring reconstructions and climate simulations
Briony Kate Chamberlayne, Jonathan James Tyler, Deborah Haynes, Yuexiao Shao, John Tibby, and Bronwyn May Gillanders
Clim. Past, 19, 1383–1396, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used geochemical signals in shells preserved in sediments to create a 1750-year record of hydrological change in the Coorong Lagoon of South Australia. The record is interpreted to reflect the balance of evaporation and precipitation and shows that it has always been a highly evaporated system. The record also shows similarities to other environmental reconstructions from the region. This knowledge can increase our understanding of the potential impacts of environmental change.
Rodrigo Martínez-Abarca, Michelle Abstein, Frederik Schenk, David Hodell, Philipp Hoelzmann, Mark Brenner, Steffen Kutterolf, Sergio Cohuo, Laura Macario-González, Mona Stockhecke, Jason Curtis, Flavio S. Anselmetti, Daniel Ariztegui, Thomas Guilderson, Alexander Correa-Metrio, Thorsten Bauersachs, Liseth Pérez, and Antje Schwalb
Clim. Past, 19, 1409–1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lake Petén Itzá, northern Guatemala, is one of the oldest lakes in the northern Neotropics. In this study, we analyzed geochemical and mineralogical data to decipher the hydrological response of the lake to climate and environmental changes between 59 and 15 cal ka BP. We also compare the response of Petén Itzá with other regional records to discern the possible climate forcings that influenced them. Short-term climate oscillations such as Greenland interstadials and stadials are also detected.
Fei Guo, Steven Clemens, Yuming Liu, Ting Wang, Huimin Fan, Xingxing Liu, and Youbin Sun
Clim. Past, 18, 1675–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1675-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1675-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our high-resolution loess Ca/Ti record displays millennial monsoon oscillations that persist over the last 650 kyr. Wavelet results indicate the ice volume and GHG co-modulation at the 100 kyr band and GHG and local insolation forcing at the precession band for the magnitude of millennial monsoon variability of loess Ca/Ti. The inferred mechanism calls on dynamic linkages to variability in AMOC. At the precession band, combined effects of GHG and insolation lead to increased extreme rainfall.
Shengnan Feng, Xingqi Liu, Feng Shi, Xin Mao, Yun Li, and Jiaping Wang
Clim. Past, 18, 975–988, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-975-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-975-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a continuous humidity history in arid Central Asia over the past millennium based on the ~1.8-year high-resolution multiproxy record from Lake Dalongchi. Our findings emphasize that the Gleissberg solar cycle and quasi-regular period of ENSO amplitude play critical roles in controlling the effective humidity at century and multidecadal timescales, respectively. Our analysis provides new insights for hydroclimate predictions and climate simulations in arid Central Asia in the future.
Weiwei Sun, Enlou Zhang, Jie Chang, James Shulmeister, Michael I. Bird, Cheng Zhao, Qingfeng Jiang, and Ji Shen
Clim. Past, 16, 833–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-833-2020, 2020
Lara Klippel, Scott St. George, Ulf Büntgen, Paul J. Krusic, and Jan Esper
Clim. Past, 16, 729–742, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-729-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-729-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The PAGES2k multiproxy database offers a new and unique opportunity to study the lack of long-term cooling trends in tree-ring data, which can be expected in Northern Hemisphere summers, particularly in the high latitudes, due to orbitally driven changes in solar irradiance. Tests of different influencing factors reveal that preserving millennial-scale cooling trends related to orbital forcing is not feasible in most tree-ring datasets.
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Pierre Antoine, Niklas Boers, France Lagroix, Michael Ghil, Johanna Lomax, Markus Fuchs, Maxime Debret, Christine Hatté, Olivier Moine, Caroline Gauthier, Diana Jordanova, and Neli Jordanova
Clim. Past, 16, 713–727, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-713-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-713-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
New investigations of European loess records from MIS 6 reveal the occurrence of paleosols and horizon showing slight pedogenesis similar to those from the last climatic cycle. These units are correlated with interstadials described in various marine, continental, and ice Northern Hemisphere records. Therefore, these MIS 6 interstadials can confidently be interpreted as DO-like events of the penultimate climate cycle.
Peng Zhang, Hans W. Linderholm, Björn E. Gunnarson, Jesper Björklund, and Deliang Chen
Clim. Past, 12, 1297–1312, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1297-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1297-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present C-Scan, a new Scots pine tree-ring density based reconstruction of warm-season (April-September) temperatures for central Scandinavia back to 850 CE, extending the previous reconstruction by 250 years. Our reconstruction indicates that the warm-season warmth during a relatively-warm period of last millennium is not so pronounced in central Scandinavia, which adds further detail to our knowledge about the spatial pattern of surface air temperature on the regional scale.
I. Neugebauer, M. J. Schwab, N. D. Waldmann, R. Tjallingii, U. Frank, E. Hadzhiivanova, R. Naumann, N. Taha, A. Agnon, Y. Enzel, and A. Brauer
Clim. Past, 12, 75–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-75-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-75-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-facies changes and elemental variations in deep Dead Sea sediments are used to reconstruct relative lake level changes for the early last glacial period. The results indicate a close link of hydroclimatic variability in the Levant to North Atlantic-Mediterranean climates during the time of the build-up of Northern Hemisphere ice shields. First petrographic analyses of gravels in the deep core question the recent hypothesis of a Dead Sea dry-down at the end of the last interglacial.
H. Vogel, C. Meyer-Jacob, M. Melles, J. Brigham-Grette, A. A. Andreev, V. Wennrich, P. E. Tarasov, and P. Rosén
Clim. Past, 9, 1467–1479, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1467-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1467-2013, 2013
R. Sundberg, A. Moberg, and A. Hind
Clim. Past, 8, 1339–1353, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1339-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1339-2012, 2012
V. Rath, J. F. González Rouco, and H. Goosse
Clim. Past, 8, 1059–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1059-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1059-2012, 2012
I. Dorado Liñán, U. Büntgen, F. González-Rouco, E. Zorita, J. P. Montávez, J. J. Gómez-Navarro, M. Brunet, I. Heinrich, G. Helle, and E. Gutiérrez
Clim. Past, 8, 919–933, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-919-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-919-2012, 2012
Cited articles
Atkinson, T. C., Harmon, R. S., Smart, P. L., and Waltham, A. C.:
Palaeoclimatic and geomorphic implications of 230Th∕234U dates on
speleothems from Britain, Nature, 272, 24–28,
https://doi.org/10.1038/272024a0, 1978.
Atsawawaranunt, K., Comas-Bru, L., Amirnezhad Mozhdehi, S., Deininger, M.,
Harrison, S. P., Baker, A., Boyd, M., Kaushal, N., Ahmad, S. M., Ait Brahim,
Y., Arienzo, M., Bajo, P., Braun, K., Burstyn, Y., Chawchai, S., Duan, W.,
Hatvani, I. G., Hu, J., Kern, Z., Labuhn, I., Lachniet, M., Lechleitner, F.
A., Lorrey, A., Pérez-Mejías, C., Pickering, R., Scroxton, N., and
Members, S. W. G.: The SISAL database: a global resource to document oxygen
and carbon isotope records from speleothems, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10,
1687–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1687-2018, 2018a.
Atsawawaranunt, K., Harrison, S., and Comas-Bru, L.: SISAL (Speleothem
Isotopes Synthesis and AnaLysis Working Group) database Version 1.0,
University of Reading, https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.147, 2018b.
Atsawawaranunt, K., Harrison, S., and Comas-Bru, L.: SISAL (Speleothem
Isotopes Synthesis and AnaLysis Working Group) database Version 1b,
University of Reading, https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.189, 2019.
Ayliffe, L. K., Marianelli, P. C., Moriarty, K. C., Wells, R. T., McCulloch,
M. T., Mortimer, G. E., and Hellstrom, J. C.: 500 ka precipitation record
from southeastern Australia: Evidence for interglacial relative aridity,
Geology, 26, 147–150, 1998.
Badertscher, S., Fleitmann, D., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Göktürk,
O. M., Zumbühl, A., Leuenberger, M., and Tüysüz, O.: Pleistocene
water intrusions from the Mediterranean and Caspian seas into the Black Sea,
Nat. Geosci., 4, 236–239, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1106, 2011.
Baker, A., Smart, P. L., and Ford, D. C.: Northwest European paleoclimate as
indicated by growth frequency variations of secondary calcite deposits,
Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 100, 291–301,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0031-0182(93)90059-r, 1993.
Baker, A., Bradley, C., and Phipps, S. J.: Hydrological modeling of
stalagmite δ18O response to glacial-interglacial transitions,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3207–3212,
https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50555, 2013.
Baker, A., Hartmann, A., Duan, W., Hankin, S., Comas-Bru, L., Cuthbert,
M.O., Treble, P. C., Banner, J., Genty, D., Baldini, L. M., Bartolomé,
M., Moreno, A., Pérez-Mejías, C., and Werner, M.: Global analysis
reveals climatic controls on the oxygen isotope composition of cave drip
water, Nat. Commun., 10, 2984, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11027-w, 2019.
Bar-Matthews, M., Ayalon, A., Matthews, A., Sass, E., and Halicz, L.: Carbon
and oxygen isotope study of the active water-carbonate system in a karstic
Mediterranean cave: Implications for paleoclimate research in semiarid
regions, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 60, 337–347,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-7037(95)00395-9, 1996.
Bar-Matthews, M., Ayalon, A., Gilmour, M., Matthews, A., and Hawkesworth, C.
J.: Sea–land oxygen isotopic relationships from planktonic foraminifera and
speleothems in the Eastern Mediterranean region and their implication for
paleorainfall during interglacial intervals, Geochim. Cosmochim.
Ac., 67, 3181–3199, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-7037(02)01031-1, 2003.
Bartlein, P. J., Harrison, S. P., Brewer, S., Connor, S., Davis, B. A. S.,
Gajewski, K., Guiot, J., Harrison-Prentice, T. I., Henderson, A., Peyron,
O., Prentice, I. C., Scholze, M., Seppä, H., Shuman, B., Sugita, S.,
Thompson, R. S., Viau, A. E., Williams, J., and Wu, H.: Pollen-based
continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesis,
Clim. Dynam., 37, 775–802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0904-1,
2011.
Boch, R., Cheng, H., Spötl, C., Edwards, R. L., Wang, X., and Häuselmann, Ph.: NALPS: a precisely dated European climate record 120–60 ka, Clim. Past, 7, 1247–1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1247-2011, 2011.
Bowen, G.: Gridded maps of the isotopic composition of meteoric waters, available at: http://waterisotopes.org, last access: 15 October 2018.
Bowen, G. J. and Revenaugh, J.: Interpolating the isotopic composition of
modern meteoric precipitation, Water Resour. Res., 39, 1299,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002086, 2003.
Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P. J.,
Masson-Delmotte, V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Zhao, Y.:
Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data, Nat. Clim.
Change, 2, 417–424, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012.
Breitenbach, S. F. M., Rehfeld, K., Goswami, B., Baldini, J. U. L., Ridley,
H. E., Kennett, D. J., Prufer, K. M., Aquino, V. V., Asmerom, Y., Polyak, V.
J., Cheng, H., Kurths, J., and Marwan, N.: COnstructing Proxy Records from
Age models (COPRA), Clim. Past, 8, 1765–1779,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1765-2012, 2012.
Breitenbach, S. F. M., Lechleitner, F. A., Meyer, H., Diengdoh, G., Mattey,
D., and Marwan, N.: Cave ventilation and rainfall signals in dripwater in a
monsoonal setting – a monitoring study from NE India, Chem. Geol.,
402, 111–124, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.CHEMGEO.2015.03.011, 2015.
Bustamante, M. G., Cruz, F. W., Vuille, M., Apaéstegui, J., Strikis, N.,
Panizo, G., Novello, F. V., Deininger, M., Sifeddine, A., Cheng, H., Moquet,
J. S., Guyot, J. L., Santos, R. V., Segura, H., and Edwards, R. L.: Holocene
changes in monsoon precipitation in the Andes of NE Peru based on δ18O speleothem records, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 146, 274–287,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2016.05.023, 2016.
Butzin, M., Werner, M., Masson-Delmotte, V., Risi, C., Frankenberg, C., Gribanov, K., Jouzel, J., and Zakharov, V. I.: Variations of oxygen-18 in West Siberian precipitation during the last 50 years, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5853–5869, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5853-2014, 2014.
Caley, T. and Roche, D. M.: δ18O water isotope in the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.0) – Part 3: A palaeo-perspective based on present-day data-model comparison for oxygen stable isotopes in carbonates, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1505–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1505-2013, 2013.
Caley, T., Roche, D. M., Waelbroeck, C., and Michel, E.: Oxygen stable
isotopes during the Last Glacial Maximum climate: perspectives from
data-model (iLOVECLIM) comparison, Clim. Past, 10, 1939–1955,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1939-2014, 2014.
Chen, Z., Auler, A. S., Bakalowicz, M., Drew, D., Griger, F., Hartmann, J.,
Jiang, G., Moosdorf, N., Richts, A., Stevanovic, Z., Veni, G., and
Goldscheider, N.: The World Karst Aquifer Mapping project: concept, mapping
procedure and map of Europe, Hydrogeol. J., 25, 771–785,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-016-1519-3, 2017.
Cheng, H., Fleitmann, D., Edwards, R. L., Wang, X., Cruz, F. W., Auler, A.
S., Mangini, A., Wang, Y., Kong, X., Burns, S. J., and Matter, A.: Timing
and structure of the 8.2 kyr B.P. event inferred from δ18O records
of stalagmites from China, Oman, and Brazil, Geology, 37, 1007–1010,
https://doi.org/10.1130/G30126A.1, 2009.
Cheng, H., Sinha, A., Cruz, F. W., Wang, X., Edwards, R. L., d'Horta, F. M.,
Ribas, C. C., Vuille, M., Stott, L. D., and Auler, A. S.: Climate change
patterns in Amazonia and biodiversity, Nat. Commun., 4, 1411,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms2415, 2013.
Christensen, J. H., Kanikicharla, K. K., Marshall, G., and Turner, J.:
Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change,
in: Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I
Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, edited by: Change, I. P. o. C., Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, 1217–1308, 2013.
Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J.-L., Fichefet, T.,
Friedlingstein, P., Gao, X., Gutowski, W., Johns, T., and Krinner, G.:
Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility, in:
Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I
Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, edited by: Change, I. P. o. C., Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, 1029–1136, 2013.
Collins, W. D., Bitz, C. M., Blackmon, M. L., Bonan, G. B., Bretherton, C.
S., Carton, J. A., Chang, P., Doney, S. C., Hack, J. J., Henderson, T. B.,
Kiehl, J. T., Large, W. G., McKenna, D. S., Santer, B. D., and Smith, R. D.:
The Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3), J. Clim.,
19, 2122–2143, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3761.1, 2006.
Columbu, A., Sauro, F., Lundberg, J., Drysdale, R., and De Waele, J.:
Palaeoenvironmental changes recorded by speleothems of the southern Alps
(Piani Eterni, Belluno, Italy) during four interglacial to glacial climate
transitions, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 197, 319–335,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2018.08.006, 2018.
Comas-Bru, L. and Harrison, S. P.: SISAL: Bringing added value to
speleothem research, Quaternary, 2, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.3390/quat2010007,
2019.
Constantin, S., Bojar, A.-V., Lauritzen, S.-E., and Lundberg, J.: Holocene and Late Pleistocene climate in the sub-Mediterranean continental environment: A speleothem record from Poleva Cave (Southern Carpathians, Romania), Palaeogeog. Palaeocl., 243, 322–338, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.PALAEO.2006.08.001, 2007.
Coplen, T. B., Kendall, C., and Hopple, J.: Comparison of stable isotope
reference samples, Nature, 302, 236–238, https://doi.org/10.1038/302236a0,
1983.
Cosford, J., Qing, H., Eglington, B., Mattey, D., Yuan, D., Zhang, M., and
Cheng, H.: East Asian monsoon variability since the Mid-Holocene recorded in
a high-resolution, absolute-dated aragonite speleothem from eastern China,
Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 275, 296–307,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EPSL.2008.08.018, 2008a.
Cosford, J., Qing, H., Yuan, D., Zhang, M., Holmden, C., Patterson, W., and
Hai, C.: Millennial-scale variability in the Asian monsoon: Evidence from
oxygen isotope records from stalagmites in southeastern China,
Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 266, 3–12,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.PALAEO.2008.03.029, 2008b.
Cruz, F. W., Burns, S. J., Karmann, I., Sharp, W. D., Vuille, M., Cardoso,
A. O., Ferrari, J. A., Dias, P. L. S., and Viana, O.: Insolation-driven
changes in atmospheric circulation over the past 116,000 years in
subtropical Brazil, Nature, 434, 63–66, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03365,
2005.
Daëron, M., Drysdale, R. N., Peral, M., Huyghe, D., Blamart, D., Coplen,
T. B., Lartaud, F., and Zanchetta, G.: Most Earth-surface calcites
precipitate out of isotopic equilibrium, Nat. Commun., 10, 429,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08336-5, 2019.
Denniston, R. F., González, L. A., Asmerom, Y., Baker, R. G., Reagan, M.
K., and Bettis, E. A.: Evidence for increased cool season moisture during
the middle Holocene, Geology, 27, 815–818, https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1999)027<0815:EFICSM>2.3.CO;2, 1999.
Denniston, R. F., Asmerom, Y., Polyak, V., Dorale, J. A., Carpenter, S. J.,
Trodick, C., Hoye, B., and González, L. A.: Synchronous millennial-scale
climatic changes in the Great Basin and the North Atlantic during the last
interglacial, Geology, 35, 619–619, https://doi.org/10.1130/G23445A.1, 2007a.
Denniston, R. F., DuPree, M., Dorale, J. A., Asmerom, Y., Polyak, V. J., and
Carpenter, S. J.: Episodes of late Holocene aridity recorded by stalagmites
from Devil's icebox Cave, Central Missouri, USA, Quaternary Res., 68,
45–52, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2007.04.001, 2007b.
Denniston, R. F., Wyrwoll, K.-H., Polyak, V. J., Brown, J. R., Asmerom, Y.,
Wanamaker, A. D., LaPointe, Z., Ellerbroek, R., Barthelmes, M., Cleary, D.,
Cugley, J., Woods, D., and Humphreys, W. F.: A Stalagmite record of Holocene
Indonesian–Australian summer monsoon variability from the Australian
tropics, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 78, 155–168,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2013.08.004, 2013.
Dykoski, C. A., Edwards, R. L., Cheng, H., Yuan, D., Cai, Y., Zhang, M.,
Lin, Y., Qing, J., An, Z., and Revenaugh, J.: A high-resolution,
absolute-dated Holocene and deglacial Asian monsoon record from Dongge Cave,
China, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 233, 71–86,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EPSL.2005.01.036, 2005.
Eden, J. M., Widmann, M., Grawe, D., and Rast, S.: Skill, correction, and
downscaling of GCM-simulated precipitation, J. Clim., 25,
3970–3984, 2012.
Ersek, V., Onac, B. P., and Persoiu, A.: Kinetic processes and stable
isotopes in cave dripwaters as indicators of winter severity, Hydrol.
Process., 32, 2856–2862, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13231, 2018.
Fairchild, I. and Baker, A.: Speleothem Science: From Process to Past
Environments, Blackwell Quaternary Geoscience Series, edited by: Bradley,
R., Wiley-Blackwell, UK, 432 pp., 2012.
Fensterer, C., Scholz, D., Hoffmann, D., Mangini, A., and Pajón, J. M.:
230Th∕U-dating of a
late Holocene low uranium speleothem from Cuba, IOP Conference Series: Earth
and Environmental Science, 9, 12015,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/9/1/012015, 2010.
Fensterer, C., Scholz, D., Hoffmann, D., Spötl, C., Pajón, J. M.,
and Mangini, A.: Cuban stalagmite suggests relationship between Caribbean
precipitation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation during the past 1.3 ka, Holocene, 22, 1405–1412, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683612449759, 2012.
Field, C. B.: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D. J., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B., Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L. L.: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1132 pp., 2014.
Fischer, M. J. and Treble, P. C.: Calibrating climate-delta O-18 regression
models for the interpretation of high-resolution speleothem delta O-18 time
series, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D17103,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007jd009694, 2008.
Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S. C., Collins,
W., Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., and Eyring, V.: Evaluation of climate
models, in: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 741–866, 2014.
Fleitmann, D., Cheng, H., Badertscher, S., Edwards, R. L., Mudelsee, M.,
Göktürk, O. M., Fankhauser, A., Pickering, R., Raible, C. C.,
Matter, A., Kramers, J., and Tüysüz, O.: Timing and climatic impact
of Greenland interstadials recorded in stalagmites from northern Turkey,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040050, 2009.
Göktürk, O. M., Fleitmann, D., Badertscher, S., Cheng, H., Edwards,
R. L., Leuenberger, M., Fankhauser, A., Tüysüz, O., and Kramers, J.:
Climate on the southern Black Sea coast during the Holocene: implications
from the Sofular Cave record, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30, 2433–2445,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2011.05.007, 2011.
Gordon, D., Smart, P. L., Ford, D. C., Andrews, J. N., Atkinson, T. C.,
Rowe, P. J., and Christopher, N. S. J.: Dating of late Pleistocene
interglacial and interstadial periods in the United Kingdom from speleothem
growth frequency, Quaternary Res., 31, 14–26,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(89)90082-3, 1989.
Grossman, E. L. and Ku, T.-L.: Oxygen and carbon isotope fractionation in
biogenic aragonite: Temperature effects, Chem. Geol., 59, 59–74, https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-9622(86)90057-6,
1986.
Hagemann, S., Arpe, K., and Roeckner, E.: Evaluation of the Hydrological
Cycle in the ECHAM5 Model, J. Clim., 19, 3810–3827,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3831.1, 2006.
Harris, I., Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J., and Lister, D. H.: Updated
high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3.10
Dataset, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 623–642,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711, 2014.
Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Brewer, S., Prentice, I. C., Boyd, M.,
Hessler, I., Holmgren, K., Izumi, K., and Willis, K.: Climate model
benchmarking with glacial and mid-Holocene climates, Clim. Dynam., 43,
671–688, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1922-6, 2014.
Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Izumi, K., Li, G., Annan, J., Hargreaves,
J., Braconnot, P., and Kageyama, M.: Evaluation of CMIP5 palaeo-simulations
to improve climate projections, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 735–743,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2649,
2015.
Hartmann, A. and Baker, A.: Modelling karst vadose zone hydrology and its
relevance for paleoclimate reconstruction, Earth-Sci. Rev., 172,
178–192, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.08.001, 2017.
Hartmann, A., Eiche, E., Neumann, T., Fohlmeister, J., Schröder-Ritzrau,
A., Mangini, A., and Haryono, E.: Multi-proxy evidence for human-induced
deforestation and cultivation from a late Holocene stalagmite from middle
Java, Indonesia, Chem. Geol., 357, 8–17, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.CHEMGEO.2013.08.026,
2013.
Hendy, C. H. and Wilson, A. T.: Palaeoclimatic Data from Speleothems,
Nature, 219, 48–51, https://doi.org/10.1038/219048a0, 1968.
Hessler, I., Harrison, S. P., Kucera, M., Waelbroeck, C., Chen, M. T.,
Anderson, C., de Vernal, A., Fréchette, B., Cloke-Hayes, A., Leduc, G.,
and Londeix, L.: Implication of methodological uncertainties for
mid-Holocene sea surface temperature reconstructions, Clim. Past, 10,
2237–2252, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2237-2014, 2014.
Hoffmann, G., Werner, M., and Heimann, M.: Water isotope module of the ECHAM
atmospheric general circulation model: A study on timescales from days to
several years, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 103,
16871–16896, 1998.
Hoffmann, G., Jouzel, J., and Masson, V.: Stable water isotopes in
atmospheric general circulation models, Hydrol. Process., 14,
1385–1406, 2000.
Hopcroft, P. O., Valdes, P. J., Woodward, S., and Joshi, M. M.: Last glacial
maximum radiative forcing from mineral dust aerosols in an Earth system
model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 8186–8205,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jd023742, 2015.
Hu, J., Emile-Geay, J., Nusbaumer, J., and Noone, D.: Impact of Convective
Activity on Precipitation δ18O in Isotope-Enabled General
Circulation Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123,
13595–13610, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029187, 2018.
IAEA/WMO: Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation, The GNIP Database, available at: http://www.iaea.org/water (last access: 20 January 2019), 2018.
Jasechko, S., Lechler, A., Pausata, F. S. R., Fawcett, P. J., Gleeson, T.,
Cendón, D. I., Galewsky, J., LeGrande, A. N., Risi, C., Sharp, Z. D.,
Welker, J. M., Werner, M., and Yoshimura, K.: Late-glacial to late-Holocene
shifts in global precipitation δ18O, Clim. Past, 11, 1375–1393,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, 2015.
Jo, K. N., Woo, K. S., Yi, S., Yang, D. Y., Lim, H. S., Wang, Y. J., Cheng,
H., and Edwards, R. L.: Mid-latitude interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw over
the past 550,000 years, Nature, 508, 378–382,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13076, 2014.
Johnston, V. E., Borsato, A., Frisia, S., Spötl, C., Dublyansky, Y.,
Töchterle, P., Hellstrom, J. C., Bajo, P., Edwards, R. L., and Cheng,
H.: Evidence of thermophilisation and elevation-dependent warming during the
Last Interglacial in the Italian Alps, Sci. Rep., 8, 2680,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-21027-3, 2018.
Joussaume, S., Sadourny, R., and Jouzel, J.: A general circulation model of
water isotope cycles in the atmosphere, Nature, 311, 24–29,
https://doi.org/10.1038/311024a0, 1984.
Jouzel, J., Hoffmann, G., Koster, R. D., and Masson, V.: Water isotopes in
precipitation:: data/model comparison for present-day and past climates,
Quaternary Sci. Rev., 19, 363–379,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00069-4, 2000.
Kageyama, M., Albani, S., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Hopcroft, P. O.,
Ivanovic, R. F., Lambert, F., Marti, O., Peltier, W. R., Peterschmitt, J.
Y., Roche, D. M., Tarasov, L., Zhang, X., Brady, E. C., Haywood, A. M.,
LeGrande, A. N., Lunt, D. J., Mahowald, N. M., Mikolajewicz, U.,
Nisancioglu, K. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Renssen, H., Tomas, R. A., Zhang,
Q., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bartlein, P. J., Cao, J., Li, Q., Lohmann, G., Ohgaito,
R., Shi, X., Volodin, E., Yoshida, K., Zhang, X., and Zheng, W.: The PMIP4
contribution to CMIP6 – Part 4: Scientific objectives and experimental
design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4
sensitivity experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017.
Kageyama, M., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Haywood, A. M., Jungclaus, J.
H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Peterschmitt, J. Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albani, S.,
Bartlein, P. J., Brierley, C., Crucifix, M., Dolan, A., Fernandez-Donado,
L., Fischer, H., Hopcroft, P. O., Ivanovic, R. F., Lambert, F., Lunt, D. J.,
Mahowald, N. M., Peltier, W. R., Phipps, S. J., Roche, D. M., Schmidt, G.
A., Tarasov, L., Valdes, P. J., Zhang, Q., and Zhou, T.: The PMIP4
contribution to CMIP6 – Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan,
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018.
Kashiwaya, K., Atkinson, T. C., and Smart, P. L.: Periodic variations in
late pleistocene speleothem abundance in Britain, Quaternary Res., 35,
190–196, https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(91)90066-E, 1991.
Kim, S.-T. and O'Neil, J. R.: Equilibrium and nonequilibrium oxygen isotope
effects in synthetic carbonates, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 61,
3461–3475, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-7037(97)00169-5, 1997.
Kirtman, B., Power, S. B., Adedoyin, A. J., Boer, G. J., Bojariu, R.,
Camilloni, I., Doblas-Reyes, F., Fiore, A. M., Kimoto, M., and Meehl, G.:
Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability, in: Climate Change
2013 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
edited by: Change, I. P. o. C., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
953–1020, 2013.
Lachniet, M. S.: Climatic and environmental controls on speleothem
oxygen-isotope values, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 28, 412–432,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.10.021, 2009.
Lachniet, M. S.: Are aragonite stalagmites reliable paleoclimate proxies?
Tests for oxygen isotope time-series replication and equilibrium, GSA
Bulletin, 127, 1521–1533, https://doi.org/10.1130/B31161.1, 2015.
Langebroek, P. M., Werner, M., and Lohmann, G.: Climate information
imprinted in oxygen-isotopic composition of precipitation in Europe, Earth
Planet. Sc. Lett., 311, 144–154,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.08.049, 2011.
Lauritzen, S.-E. and Lundberg, J.: Calibration of the speleothem delta
function: an absolute temperature record for the Holocene in northern
Norway, Holocene, 9, 659–669, https://doi.org/10.1191/095968399667823929, 1999.
LeGrande, A. N. and Schmidt, G. A.: Ensemble, water isotope–enabled,
coupled general circulation modeling insights into the 8.2 ka event,
Paleoceanography, 23, PA3207, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008PA001610, 2008.
LeGrande, A. N. and Schmidt, G. A.: Sources of Holocene variability of
oxygen isotopes in paleoclimate archives, Clim. Past, 5, 441–455,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-441-2009, 2009.
Lundeen, Z., Brunelle, A., Burns, S. J., Polyak, V., and Asmerom, Y.: A
speleothem record of Holocene paleoclimate from the northern Wasatch
Mountains, southeast Idaho, USA, Quaternary Int., 310, 83–95,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUAINT.2013.03.018, 2013.
Mangini, A., Blumbach, P., Verdes, P., Spötl, C., Scholz, D., Machel,
H., and Mahon, S.: Combined records from a stalagmite from Barbados and from
lake sediments in Haiti reveal variable seasonality in the Caribbean between
6.7 and 3 ka BP, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 26, 1332–1343,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2007.01.011, 2007.
MARGO Project Members: Constraints on the magnitude and patterns of ocean
cooling at the Last Glacial Maximum, Nat. Geosci., 2, 127–132,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo411, 2009.
Marshall, D., Ghaleb, B., Countess, R., and Gabities, J.: Preliminary
paleoclimate reconstruction based on a 12,500 year old speleothem from
Vancouver Island, Canada: stable isotopes and U–Th disequilibrium dating,
Quaternary Sci. Rev., 28, 2507–2513, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2009.05.019,
2009.
Mauri, A., Davis, B. A. S., Collins, P. M., and Kaplan, J. O.: The influence
of atmospheric circulation on the mid-Holocene climate of Europe: a
data–model comparison, Clim. Past, 10, 1925–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1925-2014,
2014.
McDermott, F.: Palaeo-climate reconstruction from stable isotope variations
in speleothems: a review, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 23, 901–918,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.06.021, 2004.
McDermott, F., Atkinson, T. C., Fairchild, I. J., Baldini, L. M., and
Mattey, D. P.: A first evaluation of the spatial gradients in delta O-18
recorded by European Holocene speleothems, Glob. Planet. Change, 79,
275–287, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.01.005, 2011.
Messori, G., Gaetani, M., Zhang, Q., Zhang, Q., and Pausata, F. S. R.: The
water cycle of the mid-Holocene West African monsoon: The role of vegetation
and dust emission changes, Int. J. Climatol., 39,
1927–1939, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5924, 2019.
Mickler, P. J., Banner, J. L., Stern, L., Asmerom, Y., Edwards, R. L., and
Ito, E.: Stable isotope variations in modern tropical speleothems:
Evaluating equilibrium vs. kinetic isotope effects, Geochim.
Cosmochim. Ac., 68, 4381–4393, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GCA.2004.02.012,
2004.
Mickler, P. J., Stern, L. A., and Banner, J. L.: Large kinetic isotope
effects in modern speleothems, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 118,
65–81, https://doi.org/10.1130/B25698.1, 2006.
Moore, G. W. and Sullivan, N.: Speleology Caves and the Cave Environment,
3rd Edn., Cave Books, St. Louis, 1–176, 1997.
Myers, C. G., Oster, J. L., Sharp, W. D., Bennartz, R., Kelley, N. P.,
Covey, A. K., and Breitenbach, S. F. M.: Northeast Indian stalagmite records
Pacific decadal climate change: Implications for moisture transport and
drought in India, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 4124–4132,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063826, 2015.
Nagra, G., Treble, P. C., Andersen, M. S., Bajo, P., Hellstrom, J., and
Baker, A.: Dating stalagmites in mediterranean climates using annual trace
element cycles, Sci. Rep., 7, 621,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00474-4, 2017.
Noone, D. and Simmonds, I.: Associations between δ18O of Water and
Climate Parameters in a Simulation of Atmospheric Circulation for 1979–95,
J. Clim., 15, 3150–3169, 2002.
Novello, V. F., Cruz, F. W., Vuille, M., Stríkis, N. M., Edwards, R.
L., Cheng, H., Emerick, S., de Paula, M. S., Li, X., Barreto, E. d. S.,
Karmann, I., and Santos, R. V.: A high-resolution history of the South
American Monsoon from Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene, Sci.
Rep., 7, 44267, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep44267, 2017.
Novello, V. F., Cruz, F. W., Moquet, J. S., Vuille, M., de Paula, M. S.,
Nunes, D., Edwards, R. L., Cheng, H., Karmann, I., Utida, G., Stríkis,
N. M., and Campos, J. L. P. S.: Two Millennia of South Atlantic Convergence
Zone Variability Reconstructed From Isotopic Proxies, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 45, 5045–5051, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017GL076838, 2018.
Oster, J. L., Montañez, I. P., Mertz-Kraus, R., Sharp, W. D., Stock, G.
M., Spero, H. J., Tinsley, J., and Zachos, J. C.: Millennial-scale
variations in western Sierra Nevada precipitation during the last glacial
cycle MIS 4/3 transition, Quaternary Res., 82, 236–248,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2014.04.010, 2014.
Oster, J. L., Sharp, W. D., Covey, A. K., Gibson, J., Rogers, B., and Mix,
H.: Climate response to the 8.2 ka event in coastal California, Sci.
Rep., 7, 3886, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-04215-5, 2017.
Partin, J. W., Cobb, K. M., Adkins, J. F., Clark, B., and Fernandez, D. P.:
Millennial-scale trends in west Pacific warm pool hydrology since the Last
Glacial Maximum, Nature, 449, 452–455, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06164,
2007.
Paul, A. and Schäfer-Neth, C.: Modeling the water masses of the
Atlantic Ocean at the Last Glacial Maximum, Paleoceanography, 18, 1058,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002PA000783, 2003.
Perez-Sanz, A., Li, G., González-Sampériz, P., and Harrison, S. P.:
Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the
Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations, Clim. Past, 10,
551–568, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, 2014.
Pollock, A. L., van Beynen, P. E., DeLong, K. L., Polyak, V., Asmerom, Y.,
and Reeder, P. P.: A mid-Holocene paleoprecipitation record from Belize,
Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 463, 103–111,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.PALAEO.2016.09.021, 2016.
Qian, Y., Jackson, C., Giorgi, F., Booth, B., Duan, Q., Forest, C., Higdon,
D., Hou, Z. J., and Huerta, G.: Uncertainty Quantification in Climate
Modeling and Projection, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
97, 821–824, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00297.1, 2016.
Riechelmann, S., Schroder-Ritzrau, A., Spotl, C., Riechelmann, D. F. C.,
Richter, D. K., Mangini, A., Frank, N., Breitenbach, S. F. M., and
Immenhauser, A.: Sensitivity of Bunker Cave to climatic forcings highlighted
through multi-annual monitoring of rain-, soil-, and dripwaters, Chem.
Geol., 449, 194–205, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2016.12.015, 2017.
Risi, C., Ogée, J., Bony, S., Bariac, T., Raz-Yaseef, N., Wingate, L.,
Welker, J., Knohl, A., Kurz-Besson, C., Leclerc, M., Zhang, G., Buchmann,
N., Santrucek, J., Hronkova, M., David, T., Peylin, P., and Guglielmo, F.:
The Water Isotopic Version of the Land-Surface Model ORCHIDEE:
Implementation, Evaluation, Sensitivity to Hydrological Parameters,
Hydrol. Current Res., 7, 258, https://doi.org/10.4172/2157-7587.1000258,
2016.
Roche, D. M.: δ18O water isotope in the iLOVECLIM model (version
1.0) – Part 1: Implementation and verification, Geosci. Model Dev., 6,
1481–1491, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1481-2013, 2013.
Roeckner, E., Baeuml, G., Bonaventura, L., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta,
M., Hagemann, S., Kirchner, I., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Rhodin, A.,
Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U., and Tompkins, A.: The general circulation
model ECHAM5, Part I: Model description, Max Planck Institute for
Meteorology, Hamburg, 349, 140 pp., 2003.
Roeckner, E., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kornblueh,
L., Manzini, E., Schlese, U., and Schulzweida, U.: Sensitivity of Simulated
Climate to Horizontal and Vertical Resolution in the ECHAM5 Atmosphere
Model, J. Clim., 19, 3771–3791,
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3824.1, 2006.
Rowe, P. J., Mason, J. E., Andrews, J. E., Marca, A. D., Thomas, L., van
Calsteren, P., Jex, C. N., Vonhof, H. B., and Al-Omari, S.: Speleothem
isotopic evidence of winter rainfall variability in northeast Turkey between
77 and 6 ka, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 45, 60–72,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2012.04.013, 2012.
Schmidt, G. A., LeGrande, A. N., and Hoffmann, G.: Water isotope expressions
of intrinsic and forced variability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model,
J. Geophys. Res., 112, D10103,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007781, 2007.
Schmidt, G. A., Annan, J. D., Bartlein, P. J., Cook, B. I., Guilyardi, E.,
Hargreaves, J. C., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., LeGrande, A. N., Konecky,
B., Lovejoy, S., Mann, M. E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Risi, C., Thompson, D.,
Timmermann, A., Tremblay, L. B., and Yiou, P.: Using palaeo-climate
comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5, Clim. Past, 10,
221–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014.
Scroxton, N., Gagan, M. K., Dunbar, G. B., Ayliffe, L. K., Hantoro, W. S.,
Shen, C.-C., Hellstrom, J. C., Zhao, J.-x., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Sun,
H., and Rifai, H.: Natural attrition and growth frequency variations of
stalagmites in southwest Sulawesi over the past 530,000 years,
Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 441, 823–833,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2015.10.030, 2016.
Sharp, Z.: Principles of stable isotope geochemistry, 1st Edn., Pearson
Education, Upper Saddler River, NJ, 2007.
Stinnesbeck, W., Becker, J., Hering, F., Frey, E., González, A. G.,
Fohlmeister, J., Stinnesbeck, S., Frank, N., Terrazas Mata, A., Benavente,
M. E., Avilés Olguín, J., Aceves Núñez, E., Zell, P., and
Deininger, M.: The earliest settlers of Mesoamerica date back to the late
Pleistocene, PLOS ONE, 12, e0183345, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0183345,
2017.
Sundqvist, H. S., Holmgren, K., and Lauritzen, S. E.: Stable isotope
variations in stalagmites from northwestern Sweden document climate and
environmental changes during the early Holocene, Holocene, 17, 259–267,
https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683607073292, 2007.
Swann, A. L. S., Fung, I. Y., Liu, Y., and Chiang, J. C. H.: Remote
Vegetation Feedbacks and the Mid-Holocene Green Sahara, J. Clim.,
27, 4857–4870, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00690.1, 2014.
Tindall, J. C., Valdes, P. J., and Sime, L. C.: Stable water isotopes in
HadCM3: Isotopic signature of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the
tropical amount effect, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D04111,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010825, 2009.
Treble, P., Shelley, J. M. G., and Chappell, J.: Comparison of high
resolution sub-annual records of trace elements in a modern (1911–1992)
speleothem with instrumental climate data from southwest Australia, Earth
Planet. Sci. Lett., 216, 141–153,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00504-1, 2003.
Treble, P. C., Chappell, J., Gagan, M. K., McKeegan, K. D., and Harrison, T.
M.: In situ measurement of seasonal delta O-18 variations and analysis of
isotopic trends in a modem speleothem from southwest Australia, Earth
Planet. Sci. Lett., 233, 17–32,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2005.02.013, 2005.
Treble, P. C., Baker, A., Ayliffe, L. K., Cohen, T. J., Hellstrom, J. C.,
Gagan, M. K., Frisia, S., Drysdale, R. N., Griffiths, A. D., and Borsato,
A.: Hydroclimate of the Last Glacial Maximum and deglaciation in southern
Australia's arid margin interpreted from speleothem records (23–15 ka),
Clim. Past, 13, 667–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-667-2017,
2017.
Tremaine, D. M., Froelich, P. N., and Wang, Y.: Speleothem calcite farmed in
situ: Modern calibration of δ18O and δ13C paleoclimate
proxies in a continuously-monitored natural cave system, Geochim.
Cosmochim. Ac., 75, 4929–4950, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2011.06.005,
2011.
Vaks, A., Bar-Matthews, M., Ayalon, A., Matthews, A., Frumkin, A., Dayan,
U., Halicz, L., Almogi-Labin, A., and Schilman, B.: Paleoclimate and
location of the border between Mediterranean climate region and the
Saharo-Arabian Desert as revealed by speleothems from the northern Negev
Desert, Israel, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 249, 384–399,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2006.07.009, 2006.
Vaks, A., Gutareva, O. S., Breitenbach, S. F. M., Avirmed, E., Mason, A. J.,
Thomas, A. L., Osinzev, A. V., Kononov, A. M., and Henderson, G. M.:
Speleothems Reveal 500,000-Year History of Siberian Permafrost, Science,
340, 183–186, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1228729, 2013.
Vanghi, V., Borsato, A., Frisia, S., Drysdale, R., Hellstrom, J., and Bajo,
P.: Climate variability on the Adriatic seaboard during the last glacial
inception and MIS 5c from Frasassi Cave stalagmite record, Quaternary
Sci. Rev., 201, 349–361,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2018.10.023, 2018.
Wackerbarth, A., Langebroek, P. M., Werner, M., Lohmann, G., Riechelmann,
S., Borsato, A., and Mangini, A.: Simulated oxygen isotopes in cave drip
water and speleothem calcite in European caves, Clim. Past, 8,
1781–1799, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1781-2012, 2012.
Wang, X., Edwards, R. L., Auler, A. S., Cheng, H., Kong, X., Wang, Y., Cruz,
F. W., Dorale, J. A., and Chiang, H.-W.: Hydroclimate changes across the
Amazon lowlands over the past 45,000 years, Nature, 541, 204–207,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature20787, 2017.
Wang, Y., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., He, Y., Kong, X., An, Z., Wu, J.,
Kelly, M. J., Dykoski, C. A., and Li, X.: The Holocene Asian monsoon: links
to solar changes and North Atlantic climate, Science (New York), 308,
854–857, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1106296, 2005.
Waterisotopes Database: http://waterisotopes.org, last access: 15 April 2017.
Werner, M.: ECHAM5-wiso simulation data – present-day, mid-Holocene, and Last Glacial Maximum, PANGAEA, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.902347, 2019.
Werner, M., Langebroek, P. M., Carlsen, T., Herold, M., and Lohmann, G.:
Stable water isotopes in the ECHAM5 general circulation model: Toward
high-resolution isotope modeling on a global scale, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 116, D15109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD015681, 2011.
Werner, M., Haese, B., Xu, X., Zhang, X., Butzin, M., and Lohmann, G.: Glacial-interglacial changes in
Werner, M., Jouzel, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Lohmann, G.: Reconciling
glacial Antarctic water stable isotopes with ice sheet topography and the
isotopic paleothermometer, Nat. Commun., 9, 3537,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05430-y, 2018.
Winter, A., Zanchettin, D., Miller, T., Kushnir, Y., Black, D., Lohmann, G.,
Burnett, A., Haug, G. H., Estrella-Martínez, J., Breitenbach, S. F. M.,
Beaufort, L., Rubino, A., and Cheng, H.: Persistent drying in the tropics
linked to natural forcing, Nat. Commun., 6, 7627,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8627, 2015.
Wolff, C., Plessen, B., Dudashvilli, A. S., Breitenbach, S. F. M., Cheng,
H., Edwards, L. R., and Strecker, M. R.: Precipitation evolution of Central
Asia during the last 5000 years, Holocene, 27, 142–154,
https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683616652711, 2017.
Wurtzel, J. B., Abram, N. J., Lewis, S. C., Bajo, P., Hellstrom, J. C.,
Troitzsch, U., and Heslop, D.: Tropical Indo-Pacific hydroclimate response
to North Atlantic forcing during the last deglaciation as recorded by a
speleothem from Sumatra, Indonesia, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett.,
492, 264–278, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EPSL.2018.04.001, 2018.
Xi, X.: A Review of Water Isotopes in Atmospheric General Circulation
Models: Recent Advances and Future Prospects, Int. J.
Atmos. Sci., 2014, 250920, https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/250920, 2014.
Xia, Q. K., Zhao, J. X., and Collerson, K. D.: Early-Mid Holocene climatic
variations in Tasmania, Australia: multi-proxy records in a stalagmite from
Lynds Cave, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 194, 177–187,
https://doi.org/10.1016/s0012-821x(01)00541-6, 2001.
Yonge, C. J., Ford, D. C., Gray, J., and Schwarcz, H. P.: Stable isotope
studies of cave seepage water, Chem. Geol.,
58, 97–105, https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-9622(85)90030-2, 1985.
Yoshimori, M., Yokohata, T., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: A Comparison of Climate
Feedback Strength between CO2 Doubling and LGM Experiments, J.
Clim., 22, 3374–3395, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2801.1, 2009.
Zhu, J., Liu, Z. Y., Brady, E. C., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Marcott, S. A.,
Zhang, J. X., Wang, X. F., Nusbaumer, J., Wong, T. E., Jahn, A., and Noone,
D.: Investigating the Direct Meltwater Effect in Terrestrial Oxygen-Isotope
Paleoclimate Records Using an Isotope-Enabled Earth System Model,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 12501–12510,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076253, 2017.
Short summary
We use an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled climate model to provide a protocol for using speleothem isotopic data for model evaluation, including screening the observations and the optimum period for the modern observational baseline. We also illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotopic values during any time period could be used for model evaluation.
We use an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and...
