Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1275-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1275-2019
Research article
 | 
05 Jul 2019
Research article |  | 05 Jul 2019

Combining a pollen and macrofossil synthesis with climate simulations for spatial reconstructions of European climate using Bayesian filtering

Nils Weitzel, Andreas Hense, and Christian Ohlwein

Related authors

Refining data-data and data-model biome comparisons using the Earth Movers' Distance (EMD)
Manuel Chevalier, Anne Dallmeyer, Nils Weitzel, Chenzhi Li, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Ulrike Herzschuh, Xianyong Cao, and Andreas Hense
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-489,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-489, 2022
Short summary
Joint state-parameter estimation of a nonlinear stochastic energy balance model from sparse noisy data
Fei Lu, Nils Weitzel, and Adam H. Monahan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 227–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-227-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-227-2019, 2019
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Holocene
Holocene climate and oceanography of the coastal Western United States and California Current System
Hannah M. Palmer, Veronica Padilla Vriesman, Caitlin M. Livsey, Carina R. Fish, and Tessa M. Hill
Clim. Past, 19, 199–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-199-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-199-2023, 2023
Short summary
Reconstructing Holocene temperatures in time and space using paleoclimate data assimilation
Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Nathan Steiger, Sylvia Dee, Chris Hancock, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 18, 2599–2629, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, 2022
Short summary
Long-term trends in diatom diversity and palaeoproductivity: a 16 000-year multidecadal record from Lake Baikal, southern Siberia
Anson W. Mackay, Vivian A. Felde, David W. Morley, Natalia Piotrowska, Patrick Rioual, Alistair W. R. Seddon, and George E. A. Swann
Clim. Past, 18, 363–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-363-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-363-2022, 2022
Short summary
Holocene climates of the Iberian Peninsula: pollen-based reconstructions of changes in the west-east gradient of temperature and moisture
Mengmeng Liu, Yicheng Shen, Penelope González-Sampériz, Graciela Gil-Romera, Cajo J. F. ter Braak, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-174,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-174, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
A 406-year non-growing-season precipitation reconstruction in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Maierdang Keyimu, Zongshan Li, Bojie Fu, Guohua Liu, Fanjiang Zeng, Weiliang Chen, Zexin Fan, Keyan Fang, Xiuchen Wu, and Xiaochun Wang
Clim. Past, 17, 2381–2392, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2381-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2381-2021, 2021
Short summary

Cited articles

Altekar, G., Dwarkadas, S., Huelsenbeck, J. P., and Ronquist, F.: Parallel Metropolis coupled Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian phylogenetic inference, Bioinformatics, 20, 407–415, 2004. a
Anderson, J. L. and Anderson, S. L.: A Monte Carlo Implementation of the Nonlinear Filtering Problem to Produce Ensemble Assimilations and Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 127, 2741–2758, 1999. a
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum, Clim. Past, 9, 367–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-367-2013, 2013. a
Bartlein, P., Harrison, S., Brewer, S., Connor, S., Davis, B., Gajewski, K., Guiot, J., Harrison-Prentice, T., Henderson, A., Peyron, O., Prentice, I., Scholze, M., Seppä, H., Shuman, B., Sugita, S., Thompson, R., Viau, A., Williams, J., and Wu, H.: Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesis, Clim. Dynam., 37, 775–802, 2011. a, b, c, d, e
Birks, H. J. B., Heiri, O., Seppä, H., and Bjune, A. E.: Strengths and Weaknesses of Quantitative Climate Reconstructions Based on Late-Quaternary Biological Proxies, The Open Ecology Journal, 3, 68–110, 2010. a
Download
Short summary
A new method for probabilistic spatial reconstructions of past climate states is presented, which combines pollen data with a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations in a Bayesian framework. The approach is applied to reconstruct summer and winter temperature in Europe during the mid-Holocene. Our reconstructions account for multiple sources of uncertainty and are well suited for quantitative statistical analyses of the climate under different forcing conditions.