Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1275-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1275-2019
Research article
 | 
05 Jul 2019
Research article |  | 05 Jul 2019

Combining a pollen and macrofossil synthesis with climate simulations for spatial reconstructions of European climate using Bayesian filtering

Nils Weitzel, Andreas Hense, and Christian Ohlwein

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Short summary
A new method for probabilistic spatial reconstructions of past climate states is presented, which combines pollen data with a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations in a Bayesian framework. The approach is applied to reconstruct summer and winter temperature in Europe during the mid-Holocene. Our reconstructions account for multiple sources of uncertainty and are well suited for quantitative statistical analyses of the climate under different forcing conditions.