Articles | Volume 13, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Review article
| 
20 Dec 2017
Review article |
| 20 Dec 2017
Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
A full list of authors and their affiliations appears at the end of the paper.
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Centennial-Decadal
A past and present perspective on the European summer vapor pressure deficit
Drought reconstruction since 1796 CE based on tree-ring widths in the upper Heilongjiang (Amur) River basin in Northeast Asia and its linkage to Pacific Ocean climate variability
Drought increase since the mid-20th century in the northern South American Altiplano revealed by a 389-year precipitation record
Climate change detection and attribution using observed and simulated tree-ring width
Integrating plant wax abundance and isotopes for paleo-vegetation and paleoclimate reconstructions: a multi-source mixing model using a Bayesian framework
Do Southern Hemisphere tree rings record past volcanic events? A case study from New Zealand
Prospects for dendroanatomy in paleoclimatology – a case study on Picea engelmannii from the Canadian Rockies
Reconstructing past hydrology of eastern Canadian boreal catchments using clastic varved sediments and hydro-climatic modelling: 160 years of fluvial inflows
A 2600-year summer climate reconstruction in central Japan by integrating tree-ring stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes
An overview on isotopic divergences – causes for instability of tree-ring isotopes and climate correlations
Proxy surrogate reconstructions for Europe and the estimation of their uncertainties
The 4.2 ka event in the central Mediterranean: new data from a Corchia speleothem (Apuan Alps, central Italy)
A 900-year New England temperature reconstruction from in situ seasonally produced branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs)
Leaf wax n-alkane distributions record ecological changes during the Younger Dryas at Trzechowskie paleolake (northern Poland) without temporal delay
Ground surface temperature reconstruction for the last 500 years obtained from permafrost temperatures observed in the SHARE STELVIO Borehole, Italian Alps
Decreasing Indian summer monsoon on the northern Indian sub-continent during the last 180 years: evidence from five tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotope chronologies
Recent climate variations in Chile: constraints from borehole temperature profiles
Spatio-temporal variability of Arctic summer temperatures over the past 2 millennia
Palaeoclimate significance of speleothems in crystalline rocks: a test case from the Late Glacial and early Holocene (Vinschgau, northern Italy)
Climate signals in a multispecies tree-ring network from central and southern Italy and reconstruction of the late summer temperatures since the early 1700s
Low-resolution Australasian palaeoclimate records of the last 2000 years
Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years
Experiments based on blue intensity for reconstructing North Pacific temperatures along the Gulf of Alaska
Spring temperature variability over Turkey since 1800 CE reconstructed from a broad network of tree-ring data
On the spatial and temporal variability of ENSO precipitation and drought teleconnection in mainland Southeast Asia
Interannual and (multi-)decadal variability in the sedimentary BIT index of Lake Challa, East Africa, over the past 2200 years: assessment of the precipitation proxy
A tree-ring perspective on temporal changes in the frequency and intensity of hydroclimatic extremes in the territory of the Czech Republic since 761 AD
Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: a tree-ring-based reconstruction
Optimal ranking regime analysis of TreeFlow dendrohydrological reconstructions
New insights into the reconstructed temperature in Portugal over the last 400 years
Expressions of climate perturbations in western Ugandan crater lake sediment records during the last 1000 years
Blue intensity and density from northern Fennoscandian tree rings, exploring the potential to improve summer temperature reconstructions with earlywood information
Reconstruction of the March–August PDSI since 1703 AD based on tree rings of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) in the Lingkong Mountain, southeast Chinese loess Plateau
Forward modelling of tree-ring width and comparison with a global network of tree-ring chronologies
Reconstruction of northeast Asia spring temperature 1784–1990
COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models (COPRA)
A 560 yr summer temperature reconstruction for the Western Mediterranean basin based on stable carbon isotopes from Pinus nigra ssp. laricio (Corsica/France)
Isotopic and lithologic variations of one precisely-dated stalagmite across the Medieval/LIA period from Heilong Cave, central China
Modelling and climatic interpretation of the length fluctuations of Glaciar Frías (north Patagonian Andes, Argentina) 1639–2009 AD
A review of the South American monsoon history as recorded in stable isotopic proxies over the past two millennia
Identification of climatic state with limited proxy data
Multi-century tree-ring based reconstruction of the Neuquén River streamflow, northern Patagonia, Argentina
Extreme pointer years in tree-ring records of Central Spain as evidence of climatic events and the eruption of the Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru, 1600 AD)
Precipitation changes in the South American Altiplano since 1300 AD reconstructed by tree-rings
Fire history in western Patagonia from paired tree-ring fire-scar and charcoal records
Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries
Viorica Nagavciuc, Simon L. L. Michel, Daniel F. Balting, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David N. Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Clim. Past, 20, 573–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The main aim of this paper is to present the summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) reconstruction dataset for the last 400 years over Europe based on δ18O records by using a random forest approach. We provide both a spatial and a temporal long-term perspective on the past summer VPD and new insights into the relationship between summer VPD and large-scale atmospheric circulation. This is the first gridded reconstruction of the European summer VPD over the past 400 years.
Yang Xu, Heli Zhang, Feng Chen, Shijie Wang, Mao Hu, Martín Hadad, and Fidel Roig
Clim. Past, 19, 2079–2092, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed the monthly mean self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index for May–July in the upper Heilongjiang (Amur) Basin since 1796. Our analysis suggests that the dry/wet variability in this basin is related to several large-scale climate stresses and atmospheric circulation patterns (El Niño–Southern Oscillation). The cause of drought is primarily a reduction in advective water vapor transport, rather than precipitation circulation processes.
Mariano S. Morales, Doris B. Crispín-DelaCruz, Claudio Álvarez, Duncan A. Christie, M. Eugenia Ferrero, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Ricardo Villalba, Anthony Guerra, Ginette Ticse-Otarola, Ernesto C. Rodríguez-Ramírez, Rosmery LLocclla-Martínez, Joali Sanchez-Ferrer, and Edilson J. Requena-Rojas
Clim. Past, 19, 457–476, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we develop the first tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction for the northern South American Altiplano back to 1625 CE. We established that the occurrence rate of extreme dry events together with a shift in mean dry conditions for the late 20th–beginning of the 21st century is unprecedented in the past 389 years, consistent with other paleoclimatic records. Our reconstruction provides valuable information about El Niño–Southern Oscillation influences on local precipitation.
Jörg Franke, Michael N. Evans, Andrew Schurer, and Gabriele C. Hegerl
Clim. Past, 18, 2583–2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2583-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2583-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Detection and attribution is a statistical method to evaluate if external factors or random variability have caused climatic changes. We use for the first time a comparison of simulated and observed tree-ring width that circumvents many limitations of previous studies relying on climate reconstructions. We attribute variability in temperature-limited trees to strong volcanic eruptions and for the first time detect a spatial pattern in the growth of moisture-sensitive trees after eruptions.
Deming Yang and Gabriel J. Bowen
Clim. Past, 18, 2181–2210, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2181-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Plant wax lipid ratios and their isotopes are used in vegetation and paleoclimate reconstructions. While studies often use either type of data, both can inform the mixing pattern of source plants. We developed a statistic model that evaluates ratios and isotopes together. Through case studies, we showed that the approach allows more detailed interpretations of vegetation and paleoclimate than traditional methods. This evolving framework can include more geochemical tracers in the future.
Philippa A. Higgins, Jonathan G. Palmer, Chris S. M. Turney, Martin S. Andersen, and Fiona Johnson
Clim. Past, 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1169-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1169-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We studied eight New Zealand tree species and identified differences in their responses to large volcanic eruptions. The response is dependent on the species and how well it can tolerate stress, but substantial within-species differences are also observed depending on site factors, including altitude and exposure. This has important implications for tree-ring temperature reconstructions because site selection and compositing methods can change the magnitude of observed volcanic cooling.
Kristina Seftigen, Marina V. Fonti, Brian Luckman, Miloš Rydval, Petter Stridbeck, Georg von Arx, Rob Wilson, and Jesper Björklund
Clim. Past, 18, 1151–1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1151-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
New proxies and improvements in existing methodologies are needed to advance paleoclimate research. This study explored dendroanatomy, the analysis of wood anatomical parameters in dated tree rings, of Engelmann spruce from the Columbia Icefield area, Canada, as a proxy of past temperatures. Our new parameters compare favorably with state of the art proxy parameters from X-ray and visible light techniques, particularly with respect to the temporal stability of the temperature signal.
Antoine Gagnon-Poiré, Pierre Brigode, Pierre Francus, David Fortin, Patrick Lajeunesse, Hugues Dorion, and Annie-Pier Trottier
Clim. Past, 17, 653–673, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-653-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A very high quality 160-year-long annually laminated (varved) sediment sequence of fluvial origin was recently discovered in an especially deep lake in Labrador. Each varve represents 1 hydrological year. A significant relation between varves' physical parameters (i.e., thickness and grain size extracted from each annual lamination) and river discharge instrumental observations provided the opportunity to develop regional discharge reconstructions beyond the instrumental period.
Takeshi Nakatsuka, Masaki Sano, Zhen Li, Chenxi Xu, Akane Tsushima, Yuki Shigeoka, Kenjiro Sho, Keiko Ohnishi, Minoru Sakamoto, Hiromasa Ozaki, Noboru Higami, Nanae Nakao, Misao Yokoyama, and Takumi Mitsutani
Clim. Past, 16, 2153–2172, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2153-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2153-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In general, it is not easy to reconstruct past climate variations over a wide band of frequencies using a single proxy. Here, we propose a new method to reconstruct past summer climate seamlessly from annual to millennial timescales by integrating tree-ring cellulose oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios. The result can be utilized to investigate various scales of climatological phenomena in the past and climate–society relationships in long human history.
Martine M. Savard and Valérie Daux
Clim. Past, 16, 1223–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1223-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climatic reconstructions based on tree-ring isotopic series convey key information on past conditions prevailing in forested regions. However, in some cases, the relations between isotopes and climate appear unstable over time, generating isotopic divergences. Former reviews have thoroughly discussed the divergence concept for tree-ring width but not for isotopes. Here we present a synopsis of the isotopic divergence problem and suggest collaborative work for improving climatic reconstructions.
Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 16, 341–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
One can use the similarity between sparse indirect observations of past climates and full fields of simulated climates to learn more about past climates. Here, we detail how one can compute uncertainty estimates for such reconstructions of past climates. This highlights the ambiguity of the reconstruction. We further show that such a reconstruction for European summer temperature agrees well with a more common approach.
Ilaria Isola, Giovanni Zanchetta, Russell N. Drysdale, Eleonora Regattieri, Monica Bini, Petra Bajo, John C. Hellstrom, Ilaria Baneschi, Piero Lionello, Jon Woodhead, and Alan Greig
Clim. Past, 15, 135–151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-135-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-135-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the natural variability in the climate system, the hydrological aspect (dry and wet conditions) is particularly important for its impact on our societies. The reconstruction of past precipitation regimes can provide a useful tool for forecasting future climate changes. We use multi-proxy time series (oxygen and carbon isotopes, trace elements) from a speleothem to investigate circulation pattern variations and seasonality effects during the dry 4.2 ka event in central Italy.
Daniel R. Miller, M. Helen Habicht, Benjamin A. Keisling, Isla S. Castañeda, and Raymond S. Bradley
Clim. Past, 14, 1653–1667, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1653-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We measured biomarker production over a year in a small inland lake in the northeastern USA. Understanding biomarkers in the modern environment helps us improve reconstructions of past climate from lake sediment records. We use these results to interpret a 900-year decadally resolved temperature record from this lake. Our record highlights multi-decadal oscillations in temperature superimposed on a long-term cooling trend, providing novel insight into climate dynamics of the region.
Bernhard Aichner, Florian Ott, Michał Słowiński, Agnieszka M. Noryśkiewicz, Achim Brauer, and Dirk Sachse
Clim. Past, 14, 1607–1624, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1607-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1607-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Abundances of plant biomarkers are compared with pollen data in a 3000-year climate archive covering the Late Glacial to Holocene transition in northern Poland. Both parameters synchronously show the rapid onset (12680–12600 yr BP) and termination
(11580–11490 yr BP) of the Younger Dryas cold interval in the study area. This demonstrates the suitability of such proxies to record pronounced changes in vegetation cover without significant delay.
Mauro Guglielmin, Marco Donatelli, Matteo Semplice, and Stefano Serra Capizzano
Clim. Past, 14, 709–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-709-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-709-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The reconstruction of ground surface temperature for the last 500 years, obtained at the deepest mountain permafrost borehole of the world (Stelvio Pass, 3000 m a.s.l., Italian Alps), is presented here. The main difference with respect to MAAT reconstructions obtained through other proxy data for all of Europe relates to post Little Ice Age (LIA) events. Indeed at this site a stronger cooling of ca 1 °C between 1940 and 1989 and even a more abrupt warming between 1990 and 2011 was detected.
Chenxi Xu, Masaki Sano, Ashok Priyadarshan Dimri, Rengaswamy Ramesh, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Feng Shi, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past, 14, 653–664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-653-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have constructed a regional tree ring cellulose oxygen isotope record using a total of five chronologies obtained from the Himalaya. Centennial changes in the regional tree ring record indicate a trend of weakened Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intensity since 1820. Decreasing ISM activity is also observed in various high-resolution ISM records from southwest China and Southeast Asia, and may be the result of reduced land–ocean thermal contrasts since 1820.
Carolyne Pickler, Edmundo Gurza Fausto, Hugo Beltrami, Jean-Claude Mareschal, Francisco Suárez, Arlette Chacon-Oecklers, Nicole Blin, Maria Teresa Cortés Calderón, Alvaro Montenegro, Rob Harris, and Andres Tassara
Clim. Past, 14, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We compiled 31 temperature–depth profiles to reconstruct the ground surface temperature of the last 500 years in northern Chile. They suggest that the region experienced a cooling from 1850 to 1980 followed by a warming of 1.9 K. The cooling could coincide with a cooling interval in 1960. The warming is greater than that of proxy reconstructions for nearby regions and model simulations. These differences could be due to differences in spatial and temporal resolution between data and models.
Johannes P. Werner, Dmitry V. Divine, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Tine Nilsen, and Pierre Francus
Clim. Past, 14, 527–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new gridded Arctic summer temperature reconstruction back to the first millennium CE. Our method respects the age uncertainties of the data, which results in a more precise reconstruction.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
Gabriella Koltai, Hai Cheng, and Christoph Spötl
Clim. Past, 14, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-369-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-369-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a multi-proxy study of flowstones in fractures of crystalline rocks with the aim of assessing the palaeoclimate significance of this new type of speleothem archive. Our results indicate a high degree of spatial heterogeneity, whereby changes in speleothem mineralogy and carbon isotope composition are likely governed by aquifer-internal processes. In contrast, the oxygen isotope composition reflects first-order climate variability.
Giovanni Leonelli, Anna Coppola, Maria Cristina Salvatore, Carlo Baroni, Giovanna Battipaglia, Tiziana Gentilesca, Francesco Ripullone, Marco Borghetti, Emanuele Conte, Roberto Tognetti, Marco Marchetti, Fabio Lombardi, Michele Brunetti, Maurizio Maugeri, Manuela Pelfini, Paolo Cherubini, Antonello Provenzale, and Valter Maggi
Clim. Past, 13, 1451–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1451-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1451-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze a tree-ring network from several sites distributed along the Italian Peninsula with the aims of detecting common climate drivers of tree growth and of reconstructing the past climate. We detect the main climatic drivers modulating tree-ring width (RW) and tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) and we reconstruct late summer temperatures since the early 1700s using a MXD chronology: this reconstruction is representative of a wide area around the Italian Peninsula.
Bronwyn C. Dixon, Jonathan J. Tyler, Andrew M. Lorrey, Ian D. Goodwin, Joëlle Gergis, and Russell N. Drysdale
Clim. Past, 13, 1403–1433, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1403-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1403-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Existing sedimentary palaeoclimate records in Australasia were assessed for suitability for examining the last 2 millennia. A small number of high-quality records were identified, and new Bayesian age models were constructed for each record. Findings suggest that Australasian record chronologies and confidence in proxy–climate relationships are the main factors limiting appropriate data for examining Common Era climate variability. Recommendations for improving data accessibility are provided.
Jennifer R. Marlon, Neil Pederson, Connor Nolan, Simon Goring, Bryan Shuman, Ann Robertson, Robert Booth, Patrick J. Bartlein, Melissa A. Berke, Michael Clifford, Edward Cook, Ann Dieffenbacher-Krall, Michael C. Dietze, Amy Hessl, J. Bradford Hubeny, Stephen T. Jackson, Jeremiah Marsicek, Jason McLachlan, Cary J. Mock, David J. P. Moore, Jonathan Nichols, Dorothy Peteet, Kevin Schaefer, Valerie Trouet, Charles Umbanhowar, John W. Williams, and Zicheng Yu
Clim. Past, 13, 1355–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
To improve our understanding of paleoclimate in the northeastern (NE) US, we compiled data from pollen, tree rings, lake levels, testate amoeba from bogs, and other proxies from the last 3000 years. The paleoclimate synthesis supports long-term cooling until the 1800s and reveals an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions around 550–750 CE. Evidence suggests the region is now becoming warmer and wetter, but more calibrated data are needed, especially to capture multidecadal variability.
Rob Wilson, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Rose Oelkers, Greg Wiles, Kevin Anchukaitis, and Nicole Davi
Clim. Past, 13, 1007–1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1007-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1007-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Blue intensity shows great potential for reconstructing past summer temperatures from conifer trees growing at high latitude or the treeline. However, conifer species that express a strong colour difference between the heartwood and sapwood can impart a long-term trend bias in the resultant reconstructions. Herein, we highlight this issue using eight mountain hemlock sites across the Gulf of Alaska and explore how a non-biased reconstruction of past temperature could be derived using such data.
Nesibe Köse, H. Tuncay Güner, Grant L. Harley, and Joel Guiot
Clim. Past, 13, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1-2017, 2017
Timo A. Räsänen, Ville Lindgren, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Brendan M. Buckley, and Matti Kummu
Clim. Past, 12, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is linked to severe droughts and floods in mainland Southeast Asia. This research provides a more accurate and uniform picture of the spatio-temporal effects of ENSO on precipitation (1980–2013) and improves our understanding of long-term (1650–2004) ENSO teleconnection and its variability over the study area. The results reveal not only recognisable spatio-temporal patterns but also a high degree of variability and non-stationarity in the effects of ENSO.
Laura K. Buckles, Dirk Verschuren, Johan W. H. Weijers, Christine Cocquyt, Maarten Blaauw, and Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté
Clim. Past, 12, 1243–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1243-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1243-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper discusses the underlying mechanisms of a method that uses specific membrane lipids present in the sediments of an African tropical lake to determine past changes in rainfall. With this method, past dry periods in the last 25 000 years can be assessed.
P. Dobrovolný, M. Rybníček, T. Kolář, R. Brázdil, M. Trnka, and U. Büntgen
Clim. Past, 11, 1453–1466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1453-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1453-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A new data set of 3194 oak (Quercus spp.) ring width samples collected across the Czech Republic and covering the past 1250 years was analysed. The temporal distribution of negative and positive TRW extremes occurring is regular with no indication of clustering. Negative TRW extremes coincided with above-average March-May and June-August temperature means and below-average precipitation totals. Positive extremes coincided with higher summer precipitation, while temperatures were mostly normal.
M. S. Morales, J. Carilla, H. R. Grau, and R. Villalba
Clim. Past, 11, 1139–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A 601-year lake area reconstruction in NW Argentina and SW Bolivia, characterized the occurrence of annual to multi-decadal lake area fluctuations and its main oscillation modes of variability. Our reconstruction points out that the late 20th century decrease in lake area was exceptional over the period 1407–2007. A persistent negative trend in lake area is clear in the reconstruction and consistent with glacier retreat and other climate proxies from the Altiplano and the tropical Andes.
S. A. Mauget
Clim. Past, 11, 1107–1125, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1107-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1107-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach to time series analysis - the ORR method - was used to evaluate reconstructed western US streamflow records during 1500-2007. This method shows an interesting pattern of alternating drought and wet periods during the late 16th and 17th centuries, a period with relatively few drought or wet periods during the 18th century, and the and the reappearance of alternating dry and wet periods during the 19th and early 20th centuries.
J. A. Santos, M. F. Carneiro, A. Correia, M. J. Alcoforado, E. Zorita, and J. J. Gómez-Navarro
Clim. Past, 11, 825–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, 2015
K. Mills, D. B. Ryves, N. J. Anderson, C. L. Bryant, and J. J. Tyler
Clim. Past, 10, 1581–1601, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1581-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1581-2014, 2014
J. A. Björklund, B. E. Gunnarson, K. Seftigen, J. Esper, and H. W. Linderholm
Clim. Past, 10, 877–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-877-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-877-2014, 2014
Q. Cai, Y. Liu, Y. Lei, G. Bao, and B. Sun
Clim. Past, 10, 509–521, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-509-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-509-2014, 2014
P. Breitenmoser, S. Brönnimann, and D. Frank
Clim. Past, 10, 437–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-437-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-437-2014, 2014
M. Ohyama, H. Yonenobu, J.-N. Choi, W.-K. Park, M. Hanzawa, and M. Suzuki
Clim. Past, 9, 261–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-261-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-261-2013, 2013
S. F. M. Breitenbach, K. Rehfeld, B. Goswami, J. U. L. Baldini, H. E. Ridley, D. J. Kennett, K. M. Prufer, V. V. Aquino, Y. Asmerom, V. J. Polyak, H. Cheng, J. Kurths, and N. Marwan
Clim. Past, 8, 1765–1779, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1765-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1765-2012, 2012
S. Szymczak, M. M. Joachimski, A. Bräuning, T. Hetzer, and J. Kuhlemann
Clim. Past, 8, 1737–1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1737-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1737-2012, 2012
Y. F. Cui, Y. J. Wang, H. Cheng, K. Zhao, and X. G. Kong
Clim. Past, 8, 1541–1550, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1541-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1541-2012, 2012
P. W. Leclercq, P. Pitte, R. H. Giesen, M. H. Masiokas, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 8, 1385–1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1385-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1385-2012, 2012
M. Vuille, S. J. Burns, B. L. Taylor, F. W. Cruz, B. W. Bird, M. B. Abbott, L. C. Kanner, H. Cheng, and V. F. Novello
Clim. Past, 8, 1309–1321, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1309-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1309-2012, 2012
J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves
Clim. Past, 8, 1141–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1141-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1141-2012, 2012
I. A. Mundo, M. H. Masiokas, R. Villalba, M. S. Morales, R. Neukom, C. Le Quesne, R. B. Urrutia, and A. Lara
Clim. Past, 8, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-815-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-815-2012, 2012
M. Génova
Clim. Past, 8, 751–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-751-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-751-2012, 2012
M. S. Morales, D. A. Christie, R. Villalba, J. Argollo, J. Pacajes, J. S. Silva, C. A. Alvarez, J. C. Llancabure, and C. C. Soliz Gamboa
Clim. Past, 8, 653–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-653-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-653-2012, 2012
A. Holz, S. Haberle, T. T. Veblen, R. De Pol-Holz, and J. Southon
Clim. Past, 8, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-451-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-451-2012, 2012
F. C. Ljungqvist, P. J. Krusic, G. Brattström, and H. S. Sundqvist
Clim. Past, 8, 227–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-227-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-227-2012, 2012
Cited articles
Aggarwal, P. K., Frohlich, K., Kulkarni, K. M., and Gourcy, L. L.: Stable isotope evidence for moisture sources in the Asian summer monsoon under present and past climate regimes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L08203, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gl019911, 2004.
Aggarwal, P. K., Alduchov, O. A., Froehlich, K. O., Araguas-Araguas, L. J., Sturchio, N. C., and Kurita, N.: Stable isotopes in global precipitation: A unified interpretation based on atmospheric moisture residence time, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L11705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl051937, 2012.
Allen, K. J., Nichols, S. C., Evans, R., Cook, E. R., Allie, S., Carson, G., Ling, F., and Baker, P. J.: Preliminary December–January inflow and streamflow reconstructions from tree rings for western Tasmania, southeastern Australia, Water Resour. Res., 51, 5487–5503, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015wr017062, 2015.
Alpert, A. E., Cohen, A. L., Oppo, D. W., DeCarlo, T. M., Gove, J. M., and Young, C. W.: Comparison of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature variability and trends with Sr∕Ca records from multiple corals, Paleoceanography, 31, 252–265, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015pa002897, 2016.
Ammann, C. M., Joos, F., Schimel, D. S., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Tomas, R. A.: Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 3713–3718, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0605064103, 2007.
Anchukaitis, K. J. and Evans, M. N.: Tropical cloud forest climate variability and the demise of the Monteverde golden toad, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 5036–5040, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0908572107, 2010.
Anchukaitis, K. J. and Tierney, J. E.: Identifying coherent spatiotemporal modes in time-uncertain proxy paleoclimate records, Clim. Dynam., 41, 1291–1306, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1483-0, 2013.
Anchukaitis, K. J., Buckley, B. M., Cook, E. R., Cook, B. I., D'Arrigo, R. D., and Ammann, C. M.: Influence of volcanic eruptions on the climate of the Asian monsoon region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010gl044843, 2010.
Anchukaitis, K. J., D'Arrigo, R. D., Andreu-Hayles, L., Frank, D., Verstege, A., Curtis, A., Buckley, B. M., Jacoby, G. C., and Cook, E. R.: Tree-ring-reconstructed summer temperatures from northwestern North America during the last nine centuries, J. Climate, 26, 3001–3012, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00139.1, 2013.
Anchukaitis, K. J., Wilson, R., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Cook, E. R., D'Arrigo, R., Davi, N., Esper, J., Frank, D., Gunnarson, B. E., Hegerl, G., Helama, S., Klesse, S., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Myglan, V., Osborn, T. J., Zhang, P., Rydval, M., Schneider, L., Schurer, A., Wiles, G., and Zorita, E.: Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 163, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.02.020, 2017.
Anderegg, W. R. L., Schwalm, C., Biondi, F., Camarero, J. J., Koch, G., Litvak, M., Ogle, K., Shaw, J. D., Shevliakova, E., Williams, A. P., Wolf, A., Ziaco, E., and Pacala, S.: Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models, Science, 349, 528–532, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aab1833, 2015.
Andreu-Hayles, L., Ummenhofer, C. C., Barriendos, M., Schleser, G. H., Helle, G., Leuenberger, M., Gutiérrez, E., and Cook, E. R.: 400 Years of summer hydroclimate from stable isotopes in Iberian trees, Clim. Dynam., 49, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3332-z, 2016.
Anet, J. G., Muthers, S., Rozanov, E. V., Raible, C. C., Stenke, A., Shapiro, A. I., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Brugnara, Y., Beer, J., Steinhilber, F., Schmutz, W., and Peter, T.: Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum, Clim. Past, 10, 921–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014.
Aono, Y. and Kazui, K.: Phenological data series of cherry tree flowering in Kyoto, Japan, and its application to reconstruction of springtime temperatures since the 9th century, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 905–914, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1594, 2008.
Asmerom, Y., Polyak, V., Burns, S., and Rassmussen, J.: Solar forcing of Holocene climate: new insights from a speleothem record, southwestern United States, Geology, 35, 1–4, https://doi.org/10.1130/g22865a.1, 2007.
Atwood, A. R., Wu, E., Frierson, D. M. W., Battisti, D. S., and Sachs, J. P.: Quantifying climate forcings and feedbacks over the last millennium in the CMIP5-PMIP3 models, J. Climate, 29, 1161–1178, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0063.1, 2016.
Ault, T. R., Cole, J. E., and George, S. S.: The amplitude of decadal to multidecadal variability in precipitation simulated by state-of-the-art climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L21705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl053424, 2012.
Ault, T. R., Cole, J. E., Overpeck, J. T., Pederson, G. T., St George, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Woodhouse, C. A., and Deser, C.: The continuum of hydroclimate variability in western North America during the last millennium, J. Climate, 26, 5863–5878, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00732.1, 2013a.
Ault, T. R., Deser, C., Newman, M., and Emile-Geay, J.: Characterizing decadal to centennial variability in the equatorial Pacific during the last millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3450–3456, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50647, 2013b.
Ault, T. R., Cole, J. E., Overpeck, J. T., Pederson, G. T., and Meko, D. M.: Assessing the risk of persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data, J. Climate, 27, 7529–7549, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00282.1, 2014.
Ault, T. R., Mankin, J. S., Cook, B. I., and Smerdon, J. E.: Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest, Science Advances, 2, e1600873, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1600873, 2016.
Ayalon, A., Bar-Matthews, M., and Sass, E.: Rainfall–recharge relationships within a karstic terrain in the Eastern Mediterranean semi-arid region, Israel: δ18O and δD characteristics, J. Hydrol., 207, 18–31, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00119-X, 1998.
Babst, F., Poulter, B., Trouet, V., Tan, K., Neuwirth, B., Wilson, R., Carrer, M., Grabner, M., Tegel, W., Levanic, T., Panayotov, M., Urbinati, C., Bouriaud, O., Ciais, P., and Frank, D.: Site- and species-specific responses of forest growth to climate across the European continent, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 22, 706–717, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12023, 2013.
Baek, S. H., Smerdon, J. E., Coats, S., Williams, A. P., Cook, B. I., Cook, E. R., and Seager, R.: Precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection signals across the combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases, J. Climate, 30, 7141–7155, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0766.1, 2017.
Bar-Matthews, M., Ayalon, A., and Kaufman, A.: Late quaternary paleoclimate in the eastern Mediterranean Region from stable isotope analysis of speleothems at Soreq Cave, Israel, Quaternary Res., 47, 155–168, https://doi.org/10.1006/qres.1997.1883, 1997.
Bar-Matthews, M., Ayalon, A., Kaufman, A., and Wasserburg, G. J.: The Eastern Mediterranean paleoclimate as a reflection of regional events: Soreq Cave, Israel, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 166, 85–95, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(98)00275-1, 1999.
Barriendos, M., Coeur, D., Lang, M., Llasat, M. C., Naulet, R., Lemaitre, F., and Barrera, A.: Stationarity analysis of historical flood series in France and Spain (14th–20th centuries), Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 3, 583–592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-3-583-2003, 2003.
Barriendos, M., Ruiz-Bellet, J. L., Tuset, J., Mazón, J., Balasch, J. C., Pino, D., and Ayala, J. L.: The “Prediflood” database of historical floods in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) AD 1035–2013, and its potential applications in flood analysis, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4807–4823, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4807-2014, 2014.
Barnett, T. P. and Pierce, D. W.: Sustainable water deliveries from the Colorado River in a changing climate, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA of the United States of America, 106, 7334–7338, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812762106, 2009.
Bauer, E., Claussen, M., Brovkin, V., and Huenerbein, A.: Assessing climate forcings of the Earth system for the past millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1276, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016639, 2003.
Benson, L., Linsley, B., Smoot, J., Mensing, S., Lund, S., Stine, S., and Sarna-Wojcicki, A.: Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the climate of the Sierra Nevada, California and Nevada, Quaternary Res., 59, 151–159, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0033-5894(03)00007-3, 2003.
Benway, H. M. and Mix, A. C.: Oxygen isotopes, upper-ocean salinity, and precipitation sources in the eastern tropical Pacific, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 224, 493–507, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.05.014, 2004.
Berger, A. L.: Long-term variations of daily insolation and quaternary climatic changes, J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 2362–2367, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035<2362:ltvodi>2.0.co;2, 1978.
Bertrand, C., Loutre, M.-F., Crucifix, M., and Berger, A.: Climate of the last millennium: a sensitivity study, Tellus A, 54, 221–244, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.2002.00287.x, 2002.
Bhend, J., Franke, J., Folini, D., Wild, M., and Brönnimann, S.: An ensemble-based approach to climate reconstructions, Clim. Past, 8, 963–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-963-2012, 2012.
Blaauw, M. and Christen, J. A.: Flexible paleoclimate age-depth models using an autoregressive gamma process, Bayesian Anal., 6, 457–474, https://doi.org/10.1214/ba/1339616472, 2011.
Benito, G., Brázdil, R., Herget, J., and Machado, M. J.: Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3517–3539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3517-2015, 2015.
Braconnot, P., Otto-Bliesner, B., Harrison, S., Joussaume, S., Peterchmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Crucifix, M., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, Th., Hewitt, C. D., Kageyama, M., Kitoh, A., Laîné, A., Loutre, M.-F., Marti, O., Merkel, U., Ramstein, G., Valdes, P., Weber, S. L., Yu, Y., and Zhao, Y.: Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum – Part 1: Experiments and large-scale features, Clim. Past, 3, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-261-2007, 2007.
Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Zhao, Y.: Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 417–424, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1456, 2012.
Brazdil, R., Pfister, C., Wanner, H., Von Storch, H., and Luterbacher, J.: Historical climatology in Europe – the state of the art, Climatic Change, 70, 363–430, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5924-1, 2005.
Brazdil, R., Demaree, G. R., Deutsch, M., Garnier, E., Kiss, A., Luterbacher, J., Macdonald, N., Rohr, C., Dobrovolny, P., Kolar, P., and Chroma, K.: European floods during the winter 1783∕1784: scenarios of an extreme event during the “Little Ice Age”, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 100, 163–189, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0170-5, 2010.
Brázdil, R., Chromá, K., Valášek, H., and Dolák, L.: Hydrometeorological extremes derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, 1751–1900 AD, Clim. Past, 8, 467–481, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-467-2012, 2012.
Brázdil, R., Dobrovolný, P., Trnka, M., Kotyza, O., Řezníčková, L., Valášek, H., Zahradníček, P., and Štěpánek, P.: Droughts in the Czech Lands, 1090–2012 AD, Clim. Past, 9, 1985–2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1985-2013, 2013.
Brazdil, R., Dobrovolny, P., Trnka, M., Büntgen, U., Reznickova, L., Kotyza, O., Valasek, H., and Stepanek, P.: Documentary and instrumental-based drought indices for the Czech Lands back to AD 1501, Clim. Res., 70, 103–117, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01380, 2016.
Breitenbach, S. F. M., Adkins, J. F., Meyer, H., Marwan, N., Kumar, K. K., and Haug, G. H.: Strong influence of water vapor source dynamics on stable isotopes in precipitation observed in Southern Meghalaya, NE India, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 292, 212–220, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2010.01.038, 2010.
Breitenmoser, P., Brönnimann, S., and Frank, D.: Forward modelling of tree-ring width and comparison with a global network of tree-ring chronologies, Clim. Past, 10, 437–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-437-2014, 2014.
Brewer, S., Alleaume, S., Guiot, J., and Nicault, A.: Historical droughts in Mediterranean regions during the last 500 years: a data/model approach, Clim. Past, 3, 355–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-355-2007, 2007.
Briffa, K. R., Jones, P. D., Bartholin, T. S., Eckstein, D., Schweingruber, F. H., Karlen, W., Zetterberg, P., and Eronen, M.: Fennoscandian summers from AD-500 – temperature-changes on short and long timescales, Clim. Dynam., 7, 111–119, 1992a.
Briffa, K. R., Jones, P. D., and Schweingruber, F. H.: Tree-ring density reconstructions of summer temperature patterns across western North-America since 1600, J. Climate, 5, 735–754, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<0735:trdros>2.0.co;2, 1992b.
Briffa, K. R., Osborn, T. J., Schweingruber, F. H., Jones, P. D., Shiyatov, S. G., and Vaganov, E. A.: Tree-ring width and density data around the Northern Hemisphere: Part 1, local and regional climate signals, Holocene, 12, 737–757, https://doi.org/10.1191/0959683602hl587rp, 2002a.
Briffa, K. R., Osborn, T. J., Schweingruber, F. H., Jones, P. D., Shiyatov, S. G., and Vaganov, E. A.: Tree-ring width and density data around the Northern Hemisphere: Part 2, spatio-temporal variability and associated climate patterns, Holocene, 12, 759–789, https://doi.org/10.1191/0959683602hl588rp, 2002b.
Briffa, K. R. and Melvin, T. M.: A Closer Look at Regional Curve Standardization of Tree-Ring Records: Justification of the Need, a Warning of Some Pitfalls, and Suggested Improvements in Its Application A Closer Look at Regional Curve Standardization, in: Dendroclimatology: Progress and Prospects, edited by: Hughes, M. K., Swetnam, T. W., and Diaz, H. F., Developments in Paleoenvironmental Research, Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, 113–145, 2011.
Buentgen, U., Frank, D., Trouet, V., and Esper, J.: Diverse climate sensitivity of Mediterranean tree-ring width and density, Trees-Struct. Funct., 24, 261–273, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00468-009-0396-y, 2010.
Buentgen, U., Tegel, W., Nicolussi, K., McCormick, M., Frank, D., Trouet, V., Kaplan, J. O., Herzig, F., Heussner, K.-U., Wanner, H., Luterbacher, J., and Esper, J.: 2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility, Science, 331, 578–582, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1197175, 2011.
Bunde, A., Buentgen, U., Ludescher, J., Luterbacher, J., and von Storch, H.: Is there memory in precipitation?, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 174–175, 2013.
Byrne, M. P. and O'Gorman, P. A.: The response of precipitation minus evapotranspiration to climate warming: why the “Wet-Get-Wetter, Dry-Get-Drier” scaling does not hold over land, J. Climate, 28, 8078–8092, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0369.1, 2015.
Cahyarini, S. Y., Pfeiffer, M., Timm, O., Dullo, W. C., and Schonberg, D. G.: Reconstructing seawater δ18O from paired coral δ18O and Sr∕Ca ratios: Methods, error analysis and problems, with examples from Tahiti (French Polynesia) and Timor (Indonesia), Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 72, 2841–2853, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2008.04.005, 2008.
Cai, Y., Chiang, J. C. H., Breitenbach, S. F. M., Tan, L., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., and An, Z.: Holocene moisture changes in western China, Central Asia, inferred from stalagmites, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 158, 15–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.12.014, 2017.
Camenisch, C., Keller, K. M., Salvisberg, M., Amann, B., Bauch, M., Blumer, S., Brázdil, R., Brönnimann, S., Büntgen, U., Campbell, B. M. S., Fernández-Donado, L., Fleitmann, D., Glaser, R., González-Rouco, F., Grosjean, M., Hoffmann, R. C., Huhtamaa, H., Joos, F., Kiss, A., Kotyza, O., Lehner, F., Luterbacher, J., Maughan, N., Neukom, R., Novy, T., Pribyl, K., Raible, C. C., Riemann, D., Schuh, M., Slavin, P., Werner, J. P., and Wetter, O.: The 1430s: a cold period of extraordinary internal climate variability during the early Spörer Minimum with social and economic impacts in north-western and central Europe, Clim. Past, 12, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, 2016.
Campbell, R., McCarroll, D., Loader, N. J., Grudd, H., Robertson, I., and Jalkanen, R.: Blue intensity in Pinus sylvestris tree-rings: developing a new palaeoclimate proxy, Holocene, 17, 821–828, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683607080523, 2007.
Carolin, S. A., Cobb, K. M., Adkins, J. F., Clark, B., Conroy, J. L., Lejau, S., Malang, J., and Tuen, A. A.: Varied response of Western Pacific hydrology to climate forcings over the last glacial period, Science, 340, 1564–1566, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1233797, 2013.
Carro-Calvo, L., Salcedo-Sanz, S., and Luterbacher, J.: Neural Computation in Paleoclimatology: General methodology and a case study, Neurocomputing, 113, 262–268, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2012.12.045, 2013.
Casty, C., Raible, C. C., Stocker, T. F., Wanner, H., and Luterbacher, J.: A European pattern climatology 1766–2000, Clim. Dynam., 29, 791–805, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0257-6, 2007.
Chadwick, R., Boutle, I., and Martin, G.: Spatial patterns of precipitation change in CMIP5: why the rich do not get richer in the tropics, J. Climate, 26, 3803–3822, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00543.1, 2013.
Chen, J. H., Chen, F. H., Feng, S., Huang, W., Liu, J. B., and Zhou, A. F.: Hydroclimatic changes in China and surroundings during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age: spatial patterns and possible mechanisms, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 107, 98–111, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.10.012, 2015.
Chen, S., Hoffmann, S. S., Lund, D. C., Cobb, K. M., Emile-Geay, J., and Adkins, J. F.: A high-resolution speleothem record of western equatorial Pacific rainfall: implications for Holocene ENSO evolution, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 442, 61–71, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.02.050, 2016.
Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Hoff, J., Gallup, C. D., Richards, D. A., and Asmerom, Y.: The half-lives of uranium-234 and thorium-230, Chem. Geol., 169, 17–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0009-2541(99)00157-6, 2000.
Cheng, H., Zhang, P. Z., Spotl, C., Edwards, R. L., Cai, Y. J., Zhang, D. Z., Sang, W. C., Tan, M., and An, Z. S.: The climatic cyclicity in semiarid-arid central Asia over the past 500,000 years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 5, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl050202, 2012.
Cheng, H., Sinha, A., Verheyden, S., Nader, F. H., Li, X. L., Zhang, P. Z., Yin, J. J., Yi, L., Peng, Y. B., Rao, Z. G., Ning, Y. F., and Edwards, R. L.: The climate variability in northern Levant over the past 20 000 years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 8641–8650, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065397, 2015.
Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Sinha, A., Spötl, C., Yi, L., Chen, S., Kelly, M., Kathayat, G., Wang, X., Li, X., Kong, X., Wang, Y., Ning, Y., and Zhang, H.: The Asian monsoon over the past 640,000 years and ice age terminations, Nature, 534, 640–646, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18591, 2016a.
Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Sinha, A., Spotl, C., Yi, L., Chen, S. T., Kelly, M., Kathayat, G., Wang, X. F., Li, X. L., Kong, X. G., Wang, Y. J., Ning, Y. F., and Zhang, H. W.: The Asian monsoon over the past 640 000 years and ice age terminations, Nature, 534, 640, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18591, 2016b.
Chou, C., Neelin, J. D., Chen, C.-A., and Tu, J.-Y.: Evaluating the “Rich-Get-Richer” mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming, J. Climate, 22, 1982–2005, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2471.1, 2009.
Christensen, N. S., Wood, A. W., Voisin, N., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Palmer, R. N.: The effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin, Climatic Change, 62, 337–363, https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013684.13621.1f, 2004.
Christiansen, B. and Ljungqvist, F. C.: Challenges and perspectives for large-scale temperature reconstructions of the past two millennia, Rev. Geophys., 55, 40–96, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016RG000521, 2017.
Chu, K. C.: Climatic pulsations during historic time in China, Geogr. Rev., 16, 274–282, https://doi.org/10.2307/208683, 1926.
Chu, K. C.: A preliminary study on the climatic fluctuations during the last 5000 years in China, Acad. Sin., 16, 226–256, 1973.
CMA: Yearly charts of dryness wetness in China for the last 500-year period, Di Tu Chu Ban She, Cartological Press, Beijing, China, 1981.
Coats, S. and Mankin, J. S.: The challenge of accurately quantifying future megadrought risk in the American Southwest, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9225–9233, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070445, 2016.
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I., and Seager, R.: Stationarity of the tropical pacific teleconnection to North America in CMIP5/PMIP3 model simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4927–4932, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50938, 2013a.
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Seager, R., Cook, B. I., and González-Rouco, J. F.: Megadroughts in southwestern North America in ECHO-G millennial simulations and their comparison to proxy drought reconstructions, J. Climate, 26, 7635–7649, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00603.1, 2013b.
Coats, S., Cook, B. I., Smerdon, J. E., and Seager, R.: North American pancontinental droughts in model simulations of the last millennium, J. Climate, 28, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00634.1, 2015a.
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I., and Seager, R.: Are simulated megadroughts in the North American southwest forced?, J. Climate, 28, 124–142, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00071.1, 2015b.
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Seager, R., Griffin, D., and Cook, B. I.: Winter-to-summer precipitation phasing in southwestern North America: a multicentury perspective from paleoclimatic model-data comparisons, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 8052–8064, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jd023085, 2015c.
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I., Seager, R., Cook, E. R., and Anchukaitis, K. J.: Internal ocean–atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9886–9894, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070105, 2016a.
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Karnauskas, K. B., and Seager, R.: The improbable but unexceptional occurrence of megadrought clustering in the American West during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 74025, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074025, 2016b.
Cobb, K. M., Charles, C. D., and Hunter, D. E.: A central tropical Pacific coral demonstrates Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic decadal climate connections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2209–2212, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL012919, 2001.
Cobb, K. M., Charles, C. D., Cheng, H., and Edwards, R. L.: El Nino/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium, Nature, 424, 271–276, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01779, 2003.
Colle, B. A., Zhang, Z. H., Lombardo, K. A., Chang, E., Liu, P., and Zhang, M. H.: Historical evaluation and future prediction of eastern North American and Western Atlantic extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 models during the cool season, J. Climate, 26, 6882–6903, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00498.1, 2013.
Colose, C. M., LeGrande, A. N., and Vuille, M.: The influence of volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America during the last millennium in an isotope-enabled general circulation model, Clim. Past, 12, 961–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-961-2016, 2016a.
Colose, C. M., LeGrande, A. N., and Vuille, M.: Hemispherically asymmetric volcanic forcing of tropical hydroclimate during the last millennium, Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 681–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-681-2016, 2016b.
Comboul, M., Emile-Geay, J., Evans, M. N., Mirnateghi, N., Cobb, K. M., and Thompson, D. M.: A probabilistic model of chronological errors in layer-counted climate proxies: applications to annually banded coral archives, Clim. Past, 10, 825–841, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-825-2014, 2014.
Comboul, M., Emile-Geay, J., Hakim, G. J., and Evans, M. N.: Paleoclimate sampling as a sensor placement problem, J. Climate, 28, 7717–7740, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00802.1, 2015.
Conroy, J. L., Cobb, K. M., and Noone, D.: Comparison of precipitation isotope variability across the tropical Pacific in observations and SWING2 model simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 5867–5892, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50412, 2013.
Conroy, J. L., Cobb, K. M., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., and Polissar, P. J.: Constraints on the salinity–oxygen isotope relationship in the central tropical Pacific Ocean, Mar. Chem., 161, 26–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marchem.2014.02.001, 2014.
Cook, E. R.: The decomposition of tree-ring series for environmental studies, Tree-Ring Bull., 47, 37–60, 1987.
Cook, E. R. and Jacoby, G. C.: Tree-ring drought relationships in Hudson Valley, New-York, Science, 198, 399–401, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.198.4315.399, 1977.
Cook, E. R. and Kairiukstis, L. A.: Methods of dendrochronology applications in the environmental sciences, XII + 394P pp., Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Netherlands, 1990.
Cook, E. R., Briffa, K. R., Meko, D. M., Graybill, D. A., and Funkhouser, G.: THE segment length curse in long tree-ring chronology development for paleoclimatic studies, Holocene, 5, 229–237, https://doi.org/10.1177/095968369500500211, 1995.
Cook, E. R., Meko, D. M., Stahle, D. W., and Cleaveland, M. K.: Drought reconstructions for the continental United States, J. Climate, 12, 1145–1162, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1145:drftcu >2.0.co;2, 1999.
Cook, E. R., Woodhouse, C. A., Eakin, C. M., Meko, D. M., and Stahle, D. W.: Long-term aridity changes in the western United States, Science, 306, 1015–1018, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1102586, 2004.
Cook, E. R., Anchukaitis, K. J., Buckley, B. M., D'Arrigo, R. D., Jacoby, G. C., and Wright, W. E.: Asian monsoon failure and megadrought during the last millennium, Science, 328, 486–489, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1185188, 2010a.
Cook, E. R., Seager, R., Heim, R. R., Jr., Vose, R. S., Herweijer, C., and Woodhouse, C.: Megadroughts in North America: placing IPCC projections of hydroclimatic change in a long-term palaeoclimate context, J. Quaternary Sci., 25, 48–61, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.1303, 2010b.
Cook, B. I., Seager, R., Miller, R. L., and Mason, J. A.: Intensification of North American megadroughts through surface and dust aerosol forcing, J. Climate, 26, 4414–4430, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00022.1, 2013a.
Cook, E. R., Palmer, J. G., Ahmed, M., Woodhouse, C. A., Fenwick, P., Zafar, M. U., Wahab, M., and Khan, N.: Five centuries of Upper Indus River flow from tree rings, J. Hydrol., 486, 365–375, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.004, 2013b.
Cook, B. I., Smerdon, J. E., Seager, R., and Coats, S.: Global warming and 21st century drying, Clim. Dynam., 43, 2607–2627, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y, 2014a.
Cook, B. I., Smerdon, J. E., Seager, R., and Cook, E. R.: Pan-continental droughts in North America over the last millennium, J. Climate, 27, 383–397, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00100.1, 2014b.
Cook, B. I., Ault, T. R., and Smerdon, J. E.: Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains, Sci. Adv., 1, e1400082, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1400082, 2015a.
Cook, E. R., Seager, R., Kushnir, Y., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Frank, D., Krusic, P. J., Tegel, W., van der Schrier, G., Andreu-Hayles, L., Baillie, M., Baittinger, C., Bleicher, N., Bonde, N., Brown, D., Carrer, M., Cooper, R., Čufar, K., Dittmar, C., Esper, J., Griggs, C., Gunnarson, B., Günther, B., Gutierrez, E., Haneca, K., Helama, S., Herzig, F., Heussner, K.-U., Hofmann, J., Janda, P., Kontic, R., Köse, N., Kyncl, T., Levanič, T., Linderholm, H., Manning, S., Melvin, T. M., Miles, D., Neuwirth, B., Nicolussi, K., Nola, P., Panayotov, M., Popa, I., Rothe, A., Seftigen, K., Seim, A., Svarva, H., Svoboda, M., Thun, T., Timonen, M., Touchan, R., Trotsiuk, V., Trouet, V., Walder, F., Ważny, T., Wilson, R., and Zang, C.: Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era, Sci. Adv., 1, e1500561, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561, 2015b.
Cook, B. I., Cook, E. R., Smerdon, J. E., Seager, R., Williams, A. P., Coats, S., Stahle, D. W., and Villanueva Diaz, J.: North American megadroughts in the Common Era: reconstructions and simulations, WIREs Clim. Change, 7, 411–432, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.394, 2016.
Coulthard, B. and Smith, D. J.: A 477-year dendrohydrological assessment of drought severity for Tsable River, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, Hydrol. Process., 30, 1676–1690, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10726, 2016.
Crowley, T. J. and Unterman, M. B.: Technical details concerning development of a 1200 yr proxy index for global volcanism, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 187–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-187-2013, 2013.
Crowley, T. J., Baum, S. K., Kim, K.-Y., Hegerl, G. C., and Hyde, W. T.: Modeling ocean heat content changes during the last millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1932, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017801, 2003.
Cruz, F. W., Burns, S. J., Karmann, I., Sharp, W. D., Vuille, M., Cardoso, A. O., Ferrari, J. A., Silva Dias, P. L., and Viana, O.: Insolation-driven changes in atmospheric circulation over the past 116 000 years in subtropical Brazil, Nature, 434, 63–66, 2005.
D'Arrigo, R., Allan, R., Wilson, R., Palmer, J., Sakulich, J., Smerdon, J. E., Bijaksana, S., and Ngkoimani, L. O.: Pacific and Indian Ocean climate signals in a tree-ring record of Java monsoon drought, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1889–1901, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1679, 2008.
D'Arrigo, R., Wilson, R., and Tudhope, A.: The impact of volcanic forcing on tropical temperatures during the past four centuries, Nat. Geosci., 2, 51–56, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo393, 2009.
Dannenberg, M. P. and Wise, E. K.: Performance of climate field reconstruction methods over multiple seasons and climate variables, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 9595–9610, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50765, 2013.
Dansgaard, W.: Stable isotopes in precipitation, Tellus, 16, 436–468, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1964.tb00181.x, 1964.
Davini, P. and Cagnazzo, C.: On the misinterpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP5 models, Clim. Dynam., 43, 1497–1511, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1970-y, 2014.
DeCarlo, T. M., Gaetani, G. A., Cohen, A. L., Foster, G. L., Alpert, A. E., and Stewart, J. A.: Coral Sr-U thermometry, Paleoceanography, 31, 626–638, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015PA002908, 2016.
Dee, S., Emile-Geay, J., Evans, M. N., Allam, A., Steig, E. J., and Thompson, D. M.: PRYSM: an open-source framework for PRoxY System Modeling, with applications to oxygen-isotope systems, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 7, 1220–1247, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015MS000447, 2015.
Dee, S. G., Steiger, N. J., Emile-Geay, J., and Hakim, G. J.: On the utility of proxy system models for estimating climate states over the common era, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 8, 1164–1179, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000677, 2016.
Delaygue, G. and Bard, E.: An Antarctic view of Beryllium-10 and solar activity for the past millennium, Clim. Dynam., 36, 2201–2218, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0795-1, 2011.
DeLong, K. L., Quinn, T. M., Taylor, F. W., Lin, K., and Shen, C.-C.: Sea surface temperature variability in the southwest tropical Pacific since AD 1649, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 799–804, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1583, 2012.
DeLong, K. L., Quinn, T. M., Taylor, F. W., Shen, C.-C., and Lin, K.: Improving coral-base paleoclimate reconstructions by replicating 350 years of coral Sr∕Ca variations, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 373, 6–24, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2012.08.019, 2013.
Delworth, T. and Manabe, S.: Climate variability and land-surface processes, Adv. Water Resour., 16, 3–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/0309-1708(93)90026-c, 1993.
Denniston, R. F., Villarini, G., Gonzales, A. N., Wyrwoll, K.-H., Polyak, V. J., Ummenhofer, C. C., Lachniet, M. S., Wanamaker, A. D., Jr., Humphreys, W. F., Woods, D., and Cugley, J.: Extreme rainfall activity in the Australian tropics reflects changes in the El NiNo/Southern Oscillation over the last two millennia, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 4576–4581, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1422270112, 2015.
Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V., and Teng, H. Y.: Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability, Clim. Dynam., 38, 527–546, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x, 2012.
Diaz, H. F., Trigo, R., Hughes, M. K., Mann, M. E., Xoplaki, E., and Barriopedro, D.: Spatial and temporal characteristics of climate in medieval times revisited, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 1487, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-10-05003.1, 2011.
Ding, L., Ge, Q., Zheng, J., and Hao, Z.: Variations in the starting date of the pre-summer rainy season in South China, 1736–2010, J. Geogr. Sci., 24, 845–857, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-014-1124-0, 2014a.
Ding, Y. N., Carton, J. A., Chepurin, G. A., Stenchikov, G., Robock, A., Sentman, L. T., and Krasting, J. P.: Ocean response to volcanic eruptions in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 119, 5622–5637, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013jc009780, 2014b.
Dobrovolny, P., Brazdil, R., Trnka, M., Kotyza, O., and Valasek, H.: Precipitation reconstruction for the Czech Lands, AD 1501–2010, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3957, 2015.
Domínguez-Castro, F., Santisteban, J. I.,Barriendos, M., and Mediavilla, R: Reconstruction of drought episodes for central Spain from rogation ceremonies recorded at the Toledo Cathedral from 1506 to 1900: A methodological approach, Global Planet. Change, 63, 230–242, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.06.002, 2008.
Domínguez-Castro, F., de Miguel, J. C., Vaquero, J. M., Gallego, M. C., and García-Herrera, R: Climatic potential of Islamic chronicles in Iberia: Extreme droughts (AD 711–1010), The Holocene, 24, 370–374, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683613518591, 2014.
Douglass, A. E.: Crossdating in dendrochronology, J. Forest., 39, 825–831, 1941.
Dunn-Sigouin, E. and Son, S. W.: Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and duration in the CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1179–1188, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50143, 2013.
Edwards, R. L., Chen, J. H., and Wasserburg, G. J.: U-238 U-234-TH-230-TH-232 systematics and the precise measurement of time over the past 500 000 years, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 81, 175–192, 1987.
Edwards, T. W. D. and Fritz, P.: Assessing meteoric water composition and relative humidity from18O and 2H in wood cellulose: paleoclimatic implications for southern Ontario, Canada, Appl. Geochem., 1, 715–723, https://doi.org/10.1016/0883-2927(86)90093-4, 1986.
Elderfield, H. and Ganssen, G.: Past temperature and δ18O of surface ocean waters inferred from foraminiferal Mg∕Ca ratios, Nature, 405, 442–445, 2000.
Emile-Geay, J., Seager, R., Cane, M. A., Cook, E. R., and Haug, G. H.: Volcanoes and ENSO over the past millennium, J. Climate, 21, 3134–3148, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1884.1, 2008.
Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K. M., Mann, M. E., and Wittenberg, A. T.: Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST variability over the past millennium. Part II: Reconstructions and implications, J. Climate, 26, 2329–2352, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00511.1, 2013a.
Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K. M., Mann, M. E., and Wittenberg, A. T.: Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST variability over the past millennium. Part I: Methodology and validation, J. Climate, 26, 2302–2328, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00510.1, 2013b.
Esper, J., Cook, E. R., and Schweingruber, F. H.: Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability, Science, 295, 2250–2253, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1066208, 2002.
Esper, J., Frank, D., Büntgen, U., Verstege, A., Luterbacher, J., and Xoplaki, E.: Long-term drought severity variations in Morocco, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L17702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030844, 2007.
Evans, M. N., Kaplan, A., and Cane, M. A.: Optimal sites for coral-based reconstruction of global sea surface temperature, Paleoceanography, 13, 502–516, https://doi.org/10.1029/98pa02132, 1998.
Evans, M. N., Kaplan, A., and Cane, M. A.: Pacific sea surface temperature field reconstruction from coral delta O-18 data using reduced space objective analysis, Paleoceanography, 17, 1007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000pa000590, 2002.
Evans, M. N. and Schrag, D. P.: A stable isotope-based approach to tropical dendroclimatology, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 68, 3295–3305, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2004.01.006, 2004.
Evans, M. N., Reichert, B. K., Kaplan, A., Anchukaitis, K. J., Vaganov, E. A., Hughes, M. K., and Cane, M. A.: A forward modeling approach to paleoclimatic interpretation of tree-ring data, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 111, G03008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jg000166, 2006.
Evans, M. N., Tolwinski-Ward, S. E., Thompson, D. M., and Anchukaitis, K. J.: Applications of proxy system modeling in high resolution paleoclimatology, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 76, 16–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.05.024, 2013.
Evans, M. N., Smerdon, J. E., Kaplan, A., Tolwinski-Ward, S. E., and González-Rouco, J. F.: Climate field reconstruction uncertainty arising from multivariate and nonlinear properties of predictors, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 9127–9134, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl062063, 2014.
Fairbanks, R. G., Evans, M. N., Rubenstone, J. L., Mortlock, R. A., Broad, K., Moore, M. D., and Charles, C. D.: Evaluating climate indices and their geochemical proxies measured in corals, Coral Reefs, 16, S93–S100, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003380050245, 1997.
Fairchild, I. J., Borsato, A., Tooth, A. F., Frisia, S., Hawkesworth, C. J., Huang, Y., McDermott, F., and Spiro, B.: Controls on trace element (Sr–Mg) compositions of carbonate cave waters: implications for speleothem climatic records, Chem. Geol., 166, 255–269, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0009-2541(99)00216-8, 2000.
Fairchild, I. J. and Treble, P. C.: Trace elements in speleothems as recorders of environmental change, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 28, 449–468, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.11.007, 2009.
Fan, K.-W.: Climate change and Chinese history: a review of trends, topics, and methods, WIREs Clim. Change, 6, 225–238, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.331, 2015.
Felis, T., Suzuki, A., Kuhnert, H., Dima, M., Lohmann, G., and Kawahata, H.: Ogasawara annual Sr∕Ca, U∕Ca, stable isotope and δ18O seawater data of coral core OGA-02-1, PANGAEA, available at: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.743956 (last access: May 2016), 2009a.
Felis, T., Suzuki, A., Kuhnert, H., Dima, M., Lohmann, G., and Kawahata, H.: Subtropical coral reveals abrupt early-twentieth-century freshening in the western North Pacific Ocean, Geology, 37, 527–530, https://doi.org/10.1130/g25581a.1, 2009b.
Fenby, C. and Gergis, J.: Rainfall variations in south-eastern Australia part 1: consolidating evidence from pre-instrumental documentary sources, 1788–1860, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 2956–2972, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3640, 2013.
Feng, S., Hu, Q., Wu, Q., and Mann, M. E.: A gridded reconstruction of warm season precipitation for Asia spanning the past half millennium, J. Climate, 26, 2192–2204, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00099.1, 2013.
Fernández-Donado, L., González-Rouco, J. F., Raible, C. C., Ammann, C. M., Barriopedro, D., García-Bustamante, E., Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J., Luterbacher, J., Phipps, S. J., Servonnat, J., Swingedouw, D., Tett, S. F. B., Wagner, S., Yiou, P., and Zorita, E.: Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium, Clim. Past, 9, 393–421, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-393-2013, 2013.
Fernandez-Montes, S., Gomez-Navarro, J. J., Rodrigo, F. S., Garcia-Valero, J. A., and Montavez, J. P.: Covariability of seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in high-resolution regional climate simulations (1001–2099), Global Planet. Change, 151, 122–133, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.09.007, 2017.
Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S. C., Collins, W., Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, V., Forest, C., Gleckler, P., Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., Reason, C., and Rummukainen, M.: Evaluation of climate models, in: Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M. B., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 741–866, 2013.
Fleitmann, D., Burns, S. J., Neff, U., Mudelsee, M., Mangini, A., and Matter, A.: Palaeoclimatic interpretation of high-resolution oxygen isotope profiles derived from annually laminated speleothems from Southern Oman, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 23, 935–945, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.06.019, 2004.
Fleitmann, D., Burns, S. J., Mangini, A., Mudelsee, M., Kramers, J., Villa, I., Neff, U., Al-Subbary, A. A., Buettner, A., Hippler, D., and Matter, A.: Holocene ITCZ and Indian monsoon dynamics recorded in stalagmites from Oman and Yemen (Socotra), Quaternary Sci. Rev., 26, 170–188, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.04.012, 2007.
Fleitmann, D., Cheng, H., Badertscher, S., Edwards, R. L., Mudelsee, M., Gokturk, O. M., Fankhauser, A., Pickering, R., Raible, C. C., Matter, A., Kramers, J., and Tuysuz, O.: Timing and climatic impact of Greenland interstadials recorded in stalagmites from northern Turkey, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040050, 2009.
Fleming, L. E. and Anchukaitis, K. J.: North Pacific decadal variability in the CMIP5 last millennium simulations, Clim. Dynam., 47, 3783–3801, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3041-7, 2016.
Flohr, P., Fleitmann, D., Zorita, E., Sadekov, A., Cheng, H., Bosomworth, M., Edwards, L., Matthews, W., and Matthews, R.: Late Holocene droughts in the Fertile Crescent recorded in a speleothem from northern Iraq, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 1528–1536, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071786, 2017.
Fluckiger, J., Dallenbach, A., Blunier, T., Stauffer, B., Stocker, T. F., Raynaud, D., and Barnola, J. M.: Variations in atmospheric N2O concentration during abrupt climatic changes, Science, 285, 227–230, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.285.5425.227, 1999.
Fluckiger, J., Monnin, E., Stauffer, B., Schwander, J., Stocker, T. F., Chappellaz, J., Raynaud, D., and Barnola, J. M.: High-resolution Holocene N2O ice core record and its relationship with CH4 and CO2, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 16, 1010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001gb001417, 2002.
Franke, J., Frank, D., Raible, C. C., Esper, J., and Broennimann, S.: Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 360–364, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1816, 2013.
Frappier, A., Sahagian, D., González, L. A., and Carpenter, S. J.: El Niño events recorded by stalagmite carbon isotopes, Science, 298, 565, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1076446, 2002.
Fritts, H. C.: Growth-rings of trees – their correlation with climate, Science, 154, 973, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.154.3752.973, 1966.
Fritts, H. C.: Tree Rings and Climate, Academic Press, London, New York, San Francisco, 556 pp., 1976.
Gagan, M. K., Ayliffe, L. K., Beck, J. W., Cole, J. E., Druffel, E. R. M., Dunbar, R. B., and Schrag, D. P.: New views of tropical paleoclimates from corals, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 19, 45–64, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0277-3791(99)00054-2, 2000.
Gagen, M., McCarroll, D., Loader, N. J., and Robertson, I.: Stable Isotopes in Dendroclimatology: Moving Beyond “Potential”, in: Dendroclimatology: Progress and Prospects, edited by: Hughes, M. K., Swetnam, T. W., and Diaz, H. F., Developments in Paleoenvironmental Research, Springer, Dordrecht, 147–172, 2011a.
Gagen, M., Zorita, E., McCarroll, D., Young, G. H. F., Grudd, H., Jalkanen, R., Loader, N. J., Robertson, I., and Kirchhefer, A.: Cloud response to summer temperatures in Fennoscandia over the last thousand years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010gl046216, 2011b.
Gallant, A. J. E., Phipps, S. J., Karoly, D. J., Mullan, A. B., and Lorrey, A. M.: Nonstationary Australasian teleconnections and implications for paleoclimate reconstructions, J. Climate, 26, 8827–8849, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00338.1, 2013.
Gao, C. C., Robock, A., and Ammann, C.: Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, 15, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd010239, 2008.
Garreaud, R. D. and Battisti, D. S.: Interannual (ENSO) and interdecadal (ENSO-like) variability in the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation, J. Climate, 12, 2113–2123, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2113:ieaiel>2.0.co;2, 1999.
Gat, J. R.: Oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in the hydrologic cycle, Annu. Rev. Earth Pl. Sc., 24, 225–262, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.24.1.225, 1996.
Ge, Q. S., Zheng, J. Y., Hao, Z. X., Zhang, P. Y., and Wang, W. C.: Reconstruction of historical climate in China – high-resolution precipitation data from qing dynasty archives, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86, 671, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-86-5-671, 2005.
Ge, Q., Guo, X., Zheng, J., and Hao, Z.: Meiyu in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River since 1736, Chinese Sci. Bull., 53, 107–114, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-007-0440-5, 2008a.
Ge, Q., Zheng, J., Tian, Y., Wu, W., Fang, X., and Wang, W.-C.: Coherence of climatic reconstruction from historical documents in China by different studies, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1007–1024, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1552, 2008b.
Ge, Q., Zheng, J., Hao, Z., Liu, Y., and Li, M.: Recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 years, J. Geogr. Sci., 26, 827–854, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-016-1301-4, 2016.
Geil, K. L., Serra, Y. L., and Zeng, X. B.: Assessment of CMIP5 Model Simulations of the North American Monsoon System, J. Climate, 26, 8787–8801, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00044.1, 2013.
Gerber, S., Joos, F., Brügger, P., Stocker, T., Mann, M., Sitch, S., and Scholze, M.: Constraining temperature variations over the last millennium by comparing simulated and observed atmospheric CO2, Clim. Dynam., 20, 281–299, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-002-0270-8, 2003.
Gergis, J. and Ashcroft, L.: Rainfall variations in south-eastern Australia part 2: a comparison of documentary, early instrumental and palaeoclimate records, 1788–2008, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 2973–2987, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3639, 2013.
Gergis, J., Neukom, R., Gallant, A. J. E., and Karoly, D. J.: Australasian temperature reconstructions spanning the last millennium, J. Climate, 29, 5365–5392, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00781.1, 2016.
Giry, C., Felis, T., Kölling, M., Wei, W., Lohmann, G., and Scheffers, S.: Controls of Caribbean surface hydrology during the mid- to late Holocene: insights from monthly resolved coral records, Clim. Past, 9, 841–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-841-2013, 2013.
Goldsmith, Y., Broecker, W. S., Xu, H., Polissar, P. J., deMenocal, P. B., Porat, N., Lan, J., Cheng, P., Zhou, W., and An, Z.: Northward extent of East Asian monsoon covaries with intensity on orbital and millennial timescales, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 1817–1821, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1616708114, 2017.
Gómez-Navarro, J. J., Bothe, O., Wagner, S., Zorita, E., Werner, J. P., Luterbacher, J., Raible, C. C., and Montávez, J. P.: A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 2: Shortcomings and strengths of models and reconstructions, Clim. Past, 11, 1077–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, 2015.
Gong, G. F. and Hameed, S.: The variation of moisture conditions in China during the last 2000 years, Int. J. Climatol., 11, 271–283, 1991.
González-Rouco, F., von Storch, H., and Zorita, E.: Deep soil temperature as proxy for surface air-temperature in a coupled model simulation of the last thousand years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2116, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gl018264, 2003.
González-Rouco, J. F., Beltrami, H., Zorita, E., and von Storch, H.: Simulation and inversion of borehole temperature profiles in surrogate climates: Spatial distribution and surface coupling, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl024693, 2006.
Goosse, H., Crespin, E., de Montety, A., Mann, M. E., Renssen, H., and Timmermann, A.: Reconstructing surface temperature changes over the past 600 years using climate model simulations with data assimilation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D09108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012737, 2010.
Goosse, H., Crespin, E., Dubinkina, S., Loutre, M.-F., Mann, M. E., Renssen, H., Sallaz-Damaz, Y., and Shindell, D.: The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the “Medieval Climate Anomaly”, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2847–2866, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1297-0, 2012a.
Goosse, H., Guiot, J., Mann, M. E., Dubinkina, S., and Sallaz-Damaz, Y.: The medieval climate anomaly in Europe: Comparison of the summer and annual mean signals in two reconstructions and in simulations with data assimilation, Global Planet. Change, 84–85, 35–47, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.07.002, 2012b.
Gordon, A. L.: The marine hydrological cycle: The ocean's floods and droughts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7649–7652, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070279, 2016.
Grab, S. W. and Nash, D. J.: Documentary evidence of climate variability during cold seasons in Lesotho, southern Africa, 1833–1900, Clim. Dynam., 34, 473–499, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0598-4, 2010.
Graham, N. E., Ammann, C. M., Fleitmann, D., Cobb, K. M., and Luterbacher, J.: Support for global climate reorganization during the “Medieval Climate Anomaly”, Clim. Dynam., 37, 1217–1245, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0914-z, 2011.
Graumlich, L. J.: Response of tree growth to climatic variation in the mixed conifer and deciduous forests of the Upper Great-Lakes region, Can. J. Forest Res., 23, 133–143, https://doi.org/10.1139/x93-020, 1993.
Gray, L. J., Beer, J., Geller, M., Haigh, J. D., Lockwood, M., Matthes, K., Cubasch, U., Fleitmann, D., Harrison, G., Hood, L., Luterbacher, J., Meehl, G. A., Shindell, D., van Geel, B., and White, W.: Solar influences on climate, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009rg000282, 2010.
Gray, S. T., Lukas, J. J., and Woodhouse, C. A.: Millennial-length records of streamflow from three major upper Colorado River tributaries, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 47, 702–712, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00535.x, 2011.
Griffin, D., Woodhouse, C. A., Meko, D. M., Stahle, D. W., Faulstich, H. L., Carrillo, C., Touchan, R., Castro, C. L., and Leavitt, S. W.: North American monsoon precipitation reconstructed from tree-ring latewood, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 954–958, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50184, 2013.
Griffiths, M. L., Drysdale, R. N., Gagan, M. K., Zhao, J. x., Ayliffe, L. K., Hellstrom, J. C., Hantoro, W. S., Frisia, S., Feng, Y. x., Cartwright, I., Pierre, E. S., Fischer, M. J., and Suwargadi, B. W.: Increasing Australian-Indonesian monsoon rainfall linked to early Holocene sea-level rise, Nat. Geosci., 2, 636–639, 2009.
Griffiths, M. L., Drysdale, R. N., Gagan, M. K., Frisia, S., Zhao, J.-x., Ayliffe, L. K., Hantoro, W. S., Hellstrom, J. C., Fischer, M. J., Feng, Y.-X., and Suwargadi, B. W.: Evidence for Holocene changes in Australian–Indonesian monsoon rainfall from stalagmite trace element and stable isotope ratios, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 292, 27–38, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2010.01.002, 2010.
Griffiths, M. L., Kimbrough, A. K., Gagan, M. K., Drysdale, R. N., Cole, J. E., Johnson, K. R., Zhao, J.-X., Cook, B. I., Hellstrom, J. C., and Hantoro, W. S.: Western Pacific hydroclimate linked to global climate variability over the past two millennia, Nat. Commun., 7, 11719–11719, 2016.
Guillot, D., Rajaratnam, B., and Emile-Geay, J.: Statistical paleoclimate reconstructions via Markov Random Fields, Ann. Appl. Stat., 9, 324–352, https://doi.org/10.1214/14-aoas794, 2015.
Hakim, G. J., Emile-Geay, J., Steig, E. J., Noone, D., Anderson, D. M., Tardif, R., Steiger, N., and Perkins, W. A.: The lastmillennium climate reanalysis project: framework and first results, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 6745–6764, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jd024751, 2016.
Hansen, J. and Sato, M.: Greenhouse gas growth rates, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 101, 16109–16114, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0406982101, 2004.
Hao, Z. X., Sun, D., and Zheng, J. Y.: East Asian monsoon signals reflected in temperature and precipitation changes over the past 300 years in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, PLoS One, 10, 11, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0131159, 2015.
Hao, Z., Zheng, J., Zhang, X., Liu, H., Li, M., and Ge, Q.: Spatial patterns of precipitation anomalies in eastern China during centennial cold and warm periods of the past 2000 years, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 467–475, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4367, 2016.
Hao, Z., Geng, X., Liu, K., Liu, H., and Jingyun, Z.: Dryness and wetness variations for the past 1000 years in Guanzhong Plain, Chinese Sci. Bull., 62, 2399–2406, 2017.
Harley, G. L., Maxwell, J. T., Larson, E., Grissino-Mayer, H. D., Henderson, J., and Huffman, J.: Suwannee River flow variability 1550–2005 CE reconstructed from a multispecies tree-ring network, J. Hydrol., 544, 438–451, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.020, 2017.
Haslett, J., Whiley, M., Bhattacharya, S., Salter-Townshend, M., Wilson, S. P., Allen, J. R. M., Huntley, B., and Mitchell, F. J. G.: Bayesian palaeoclimate reconstruction, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. A Stat., 169, 395–438, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2006.00429.x, 2006.
Haslett, J. and Parnell, A.: A simple monotone process with application to radiocarbon-dated depth chronologies, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. C-App., 57, 399–418, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2008.00623.x, 2008.
Hathorne, E. C., Felis, T., Suzuki, A., Kawahata, H., and Cabioch, G.: Lithium in the aragonite skeletons of massive Porites corals: a new tool to reconstruct tropical sea surface temperatures, Paleoceanography, 28, 143–152, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012pa002311, 2013.
Haug, G. H., Hughen, K. A., Sigman, D. M., Peterson, L. C., and Rohl, U.: Southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone through the Holocene, Science, 293, 1304–1308, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1059725, 2001.
Haug, G. H., Günther, D., Peterson, L. C., Sigman, D. M., Hughen, K. A., and Aeschlimann, B.: Climate and the collapse of Maya civilization, Science, 299, 1731–1735, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1080444, 2003.
Haywood, J. M., Jones, A., Bellouin, N., and Stephenson, D.: Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 660–665, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1857, 2013.
Hendy, E. J., Gagan, M. K., Alibert, C. A., McCulloch, M. T., Lough, J. M., and Isdale, P. J.: Abrupt decrease in tropical Pacific Sea surface salinity at end of Little Ice Age, Science, 295, 1511–1514, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1067693, 2002.
Hendy, E. J., Gagen, M. K., Alibert, C. A., McCulloch, M. T., Lough, J. M., and Isdale, P. J.: Kurrimine Beach, Brook Island, Britomart Reef, Great Palm Island, Lodestone Reef, Pandora Reef, Havannah Island – δ18O, Sr∕Ca, and U∕Ca Data, available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/1869, accessed 10 July 2017.
Hernandez-Almeida, I., Grosjean, M., Gomez-Navarro, J. J., Larocque-Tobler, I., Bonk, A., Enters, D., Ustrzycka, A., Piotrowska, N., Przybylak, R., Wacnik, A., Witak, M., and Tylmann, W.: Resilience, rapid transitions and regime shifts: Fingerprinting the responses of Lake abiskie (NE Poland) to climate variability and human disturbance since AD 1000, Holocene, 27, 258–270, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683616658529, 2017.
Hetzinger, S., Pfeiffer, M., Dullo, W.-C., Garbe-Schoenberg, D., and Halfar, J.: Rapid 20th century warming in the Caribbean and impact of remote forcing on climate in the northern tropical Atlantic as recorded in a Guadeloupe coral, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 296, 111–124, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2010.06.019, 2010.
Hetzinger, S., Pfeiffer, M., Dullo, W. C., Garbe-Schoenberg, C.-D., and Halfar, J.: Guadeloupe annual coral seawater δ18O reconstruction, PANGAEA, available at: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.873994 (last access: March 2017), 2017.
Himmelsbach, I., Glaser, R., Schoenbein, J., Riemann, D., and Martin, B.: Reconstruction of flood events based on documentary data and transnational flood risk analysis of the Upper Rhine and its French and German tributaries since AD 1480, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4149–4164, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4149-2015, 2015.
Hofer, D., Raible, C. C., and Stocker, T. F.: Variations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in control and transient simulations of the last millennium, Clim. Past, 7, 133–150, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-133-2011, 2011.
Hoffmann, G., Werner, M., and Heimann, M.: Water isotope module of the ECHAM atmospheric general circulation model: A study on timescales from days to several years, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 103, 16871–16896, https://doi.org/10.1029/98jd00423, 1998.
Holmes, R. L.: Computer assisted quality control in tree ring dating and measurement, Tree-Ring Bull., 43, 69–78, 1983.
Hostetler, S. W. and Benson, L. V.: Stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen in the Truckee River–Pyramid Lake surface-water system. 2. A predictive model of δ18O and δ2H in Pyramid Lake, Limnol. Oceanogr., 39, 356–364, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1994.39.2.0356, 1994.
Hu, J., Emile-Geay, J., and Partin, J.: Correlation-based interpretations of paleoclimate data – where statistics meet past climates, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 459, 362–371, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.11.048, 2017.
Huang, P., Xie, S.-P., Hu, K., Huang, G., and Huang, R.: Patterns of the seasonal response of tropical rainfall to global warming, Nat. Geosci., 6, 357–361, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1792, 2013.
Hughes, M. K., Wu, X. D., Shao, X. M., and Garfin, G. M.: A preliminary reconstruction of rainfall in North-Central China since AD 1600 from tree-ring density and width, Quaternary Res., 42, 88–99, https://doi.org/10.1006/qres.1994.1056, 1994.
Hurst, H. E.: Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs, T. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng., 116, 770–799, 1951.
Hurtt, G. C., Frolking, S., Fearon, M. G., Moore, B., Shevliakova, E., Malyshev, S., Pacala, S. W., and Houghton, R. A.: The underpinnings of land-use history: three centuries of global gridded land-use transitions, wood-harvest activity, and resulting secondary lands, Glob. Change Biol., 12, 1208–1229, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01150.x, 2006.
Huybers, K., Rupper, S., and Roe, G. H.: Response of closed basin lakes to interannual climate variability, Clim. Dynam., 46, 3709–3723, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2798-4, 2016.
Huybers, P. and Curry, W.: Links between annual, Milankovitch and continuum temperature variability, Nature, 441, 329–332, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04745, 2006.
Iles, C. E., Hegerl, G. C., Schurer, A. P., and Zhang, X. B.: The effect of volcanic eruptions on global precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 8770–8786, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50678, 2013.
Iles, C. E. and Hegerl, G. C.: The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104012, 2014.
Johns, T. C., Gregory, J. M., Ingram, W. J., Johnson, C. E., Jones, A., Lowe, J. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Roberts, D. L., Sexton, D. M. H., Stevenson, D. S., Tett, S. F. B., and Woodage, M. J.: Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios, Clim. Dynam., 20, 583–612, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-002-0296-y, 2003.
Jones, I. C. and Banner, J. L.: Estimating recharge thresholds in tropical karst island aquifers: Barbados, Puerto Rico and Guam, J. Hydrol., 278, 131–143, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0022-1694(03)00138-0, 2003.
Jones, P. D., Briffa, K. R., Osborn, T. J., Lough, J. M., van Ommen, T. D., Vinther, B. M., Luterbacher, J., Wahl, E. R., Zwiers, F. W., Mann, M. E., Schmidt, G. A., Ammann, C. M., Buckley, B. M., Cobb, K. M., Esper, J., Goosse, H., Graham, N., Jansen, E., Kiefer, T., Kull, C., Kuettel, M., Mosley-Thompson, E., Overpeck, J. T., Riedwyl, N., Schulz, M., Tudhope, A. W., Villalba, R., Wanner, H., Wolff, E., and Xoplaki, E.: High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects, Holocene, 19, 3–49, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683608098952, 2009.
Jones, M. D., Dee, S., Anderson, L., Baker, A., Bowen, G., and Noone, D. C.: Water isotope systematics: improving our palaeoclimate interpretations Introduction, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 131, 243–249, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.11.014, 2016.
Joseph, R. and Zeng, N.: Seasonally modulated tropical drought induced by volcanic aerosol, J. Climate, 24, 2045–2060, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3170.1, 2011.
Jouzel, J., Koster, R. D., Suozzo, R. J., and Russell, G. L.: Stable water isotope behavior during the last glacial maximum: A general circulation model analysis, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 99, 25791–25801, https://doi.org/10.1029/94JD01819, 1994.
Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J., Timmreck, C., Reick, C. H., Brovkin, V., Six, K., Segschneider, J., Giorgetta, M. A., Crowley, T. J., Pongratz, J., Krivova, N. A., Vieira, L. E., Solanki, S. K., Klocke, D., Botzet, M., Esch, M., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Raddatz, T. J., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., Widmann, H., Claussen, M., Stevens, B., and Marotzke, J.: Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 6, 723–737, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-723-2010, 2010.
Jungclaus, J. H., Bard, E., Baroni, M., Braconnot, P., Cao, J., Chini, L. P., Egorova, T., Evans, M., González-Rouco, J. F., Goosse, H., Hurtt, G. C., Joos, F., Kaplan, J. O., Khodri, M., Klein Goldewijk, K., Krivova, N., LeGrande, A. N., Lorenz, S. J., Luterbacher, J., Man, W., Meinshausen, M., Moberg, A., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Otto-Bliesner, B. I., Phipps, S. J., Pongratz, J., Rozanov, E., Schmidt, G. A., Schmidt, H., Schmutz, W., Schurer, A., Shapiro, A. I., Sigl, M., Smerdon, J. E., Solanki, S. K., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Usoskin, I. G., Wagner, S., Wu, C.-Y., Yeo, K. L., Zanchettin, D., Zhang, Q., and Zorita, E.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: the Last Millennium, Scientific Objective and Experimental Design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-278, in review, 2016.
Kaplan, A.: Discussion of: A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?, Ann. Appl. Stat., 5, 47–51, https://doi.org/10.1214/10-aoas398m, 2011.
Karnauskas, K. B., Donnelly, J. P., and Anchukaitis, K. J.: Future freshwater stress for island populations, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 720–725, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2987, 2016.
Kay, J. E., Deser, C., Phillips, A., Mai, A., Hannay, C., Strand, G., Arblaster, J. M., Bates, S. C., Danabasoglu, G., Edwards, J., Holland, M., Kushner, P., Lamarque, J. F., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., Middleton, A., Munoz, E., Neale, R., Oleson, K., Polvani, L., and Vertenstein, M.: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1333–1349, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-13-00255.1, 2015.
Kempes, C. P., Myers, O. B., Breshears, D. D., and Ebersole, J. J.: Comparing response of Pinus edulis tree-ring growth to five alternate moisture indices using historic meteorological data, J. Arid Environ., 72, 350–357, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2007.07.009, 2008.
Knapp, P. A., Maxwell, J. T., and Soule, P. T.: Tropical cyclone rainfall variability in coastal North Carolina derived from longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.): AD 1771–2014, Climatic Change, 135, 311–323, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1560-6, 2016.
Knutti, R., Furrer, R., Tebaldi, C., Cermak, J., and Meehl, G. A.: Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models, J. Climate, 23, 2739–2758, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3361.1, 2009.
Knutti, R., Sedláček, J., Sanderson, B. M., Lorenz, R., Fischer, E. M., and Eyring, V.: A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 1909–1918, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072012, 2017.
Konecky, B., Russell, J., Vuille, M., and Rehfeld, K.: The Indian Ocean Zonal Mode over the past millennium in observed and modeled precipitation isotopes, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 103, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.08.019, 2014.
Konecky, B., Russell, J., and Bijaksana, S.: Glacial aridity in central Indonesia coeval with intensified monsoon circulation, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 437, 15–24, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.12.037, 2016.
Kurita, N.: Water isotopic variability in response to mesoscale convective system over the tropical ocean, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 10376–10390, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50754, 2013.
Lamarque, J.-F., Bond, T. C., Eyring, V., Granier, C., Heil, A., Klimont, Z., Lee, D., Liousse, C., Mieville, A., Owen, B., Schultz, M. G., Shindell, D., Smith, S. J., Stehfest, E., Van Aardenne, J., Cooper, O. R., Kainuma, M., Mahowald, N., McConnell, J. R., Naik, V., Riahi, K., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7017–7039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010, 2010.
Landrum, L., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Wahl, E. R., Conley, A., Lawrence, P. J., Rosenbloom, N., and Teng, H.: Last millennium climate and its variability in CCSM4, J. Climate, 26, 1085–1111, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00326.1, 2013.
Langford, S., Stevenson, S., and Noone, D.: Analysis of low-frequency precipitation variability in CMIP5 historical simulations for southwestern North America, J. Climate, 27, 2735–2756, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00317.1, 2014.
Lara, A., Villalba, R., and Urrutia, R.: A 400-year tree-ring record of the Puelo River summer-fall streamflow in the Valdivian Rainforest eco-region, Chile, Climatic Change, 86, 331–356, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9287-7, 2008.
Lean, J., Rottman, G., Harder, J., and Kopp, G.: SORCE contributions to new understanding of global change and solar variability, Sol. Phys., 230, 27–53, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-005-1527-2, 2005.
LeGrande, A. N. and Schmidt, G. A.: Global gridded data set of the oxygen isotopic composition in seawater, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L12604, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026011, 2006.
LeGrande, A. N. and Schmidt, G. A.: Water isotopologues as a quantitative paleosalinity proxy, Paleoceanography, 26, PA3225, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010pa002043, 2011.
LeGrande, A. N., Tsigaridis, K., and Bauer, S. E.: Role of atmospheric chemistry in the climate impacts of stratospheric volcanic injections, Nat. Geosci., 9, 652–655, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2771, 2016.
Lehner, F., Raible, C. C., and Stocker, T. F.: Testing the robustness of a precipitation proxy-based North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 45, 85–94, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.04.025, 2012.
Lehner, F., Joos, F., Raible, C. C., Mignot, J., Born, A., Keller, K. M., and Stocker, T. F.: Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850 to 2100 CE, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 411–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, 2015.
Lehner, F., Schurer, A. P., Hegerl, G. C., Deser, C., and Froelicher, T. L.: The importance of ENSO phase during volcanic eruptions for detection and attribution, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2851–2858, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl067935, 2016.
Lehner, F., Wahl, E. R., Wood, A. W., Blatchford, D. B., and Llewellyn, D.: Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspectiv, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 4124–4133, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073253, 2017.
Lewis, S. C., LeGrande, A. N., Kelley, M., and Schmidt, G. A.: Water vapour source impacts on oxygen isotope variability in tropical precipitation during Heinrich events, Clim. Past, 6, 325–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-325-2010, 2010.
Lewis, S. C. and LeGrande, A. N.: Stability of ENSO and its tropical Pacific teleconnections over the Last Millennium, Clim. Past, 11, 1347–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, 2015.
Li, J. B., Xie, S. P., Cook, E. R., Morales, M. S., Christie, D. A., Johnson, N. C., Chen, F. H., D'Arrigo, R., Fowler, A. M., Gou, X. H., and Fang, K. Y.: El Nino modulations over the past seven centuries, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 822–826, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1936, 2013.
Li, L., Schmitt, R. W., Ummenhofer, C. C., and Karnauskas, K. B.: Implications of North Atlantic Sea surface salinity for summer precipitation over the US Midwest: mechanisms and predictive value, J. Climate, 29, 3143–3159, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0520.1, 2016a.
Li, L., Schmitt, R. W., Ummenhofer, C. C., and Karnauskas, K. B.: North Atlantic salinity as a predictor of Sahel rainfall, Sci. Adv., 2, e1501588, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1501588, 2016b.
Li, J., Dodson, J., Yan, H., Zhang, D.D., Zhang, X., Xu, Q., Lee, H.F., Pei, Q., Cheng, B., Li, Ch., Ni, J., Sun, A., Lu, F., and Zong, Y.: Quantifying climatic variability in monsoonal northern China over the last 2200 years and its role in driving Chinese dynastic changes, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 159, 35–46, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.009, 2017.
Linsley, B. K., Wellington, G. M., and Schrag, D. P.: Decadal sea surface temperature variability in the subtropical South Pacific from 1726 to 1997 AD, Science, 290, 1145–1148, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.290.5494.1145, 2000.
Linsley, B. K., Wellington, G. M., Schrag, D. P., Ren, L., Salinger, M. J., and Tudhope, A. W.: Geochemical evidence from corals for changes in the amplitude and spatial pattern of South Pacific interdecadal climate variability over the last 300 years, Clim. Dynam., 22, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0364-y, 2004.
Linsley, B. K., Kaplan, A., Gouriou, Y., Salinger, J., deMenocal, P. B., Wellington, G. M., and Howe, S. S.: Tracking the extent of the South Pacific Convergence Zone since the early 1600s, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 7, Q05003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GC001115, 2006.
Linsley, B. K.: Coral derived δ18O seawater data from Fiji, core 1F, PANGAEA, available at: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.874070 (last access: June 2017), 2017a.
Linsley, B. K.: Coral derived δ18O seawater data from Rarotonga, core 2R, PANGAEA, available at: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.874078 (last access: June 2017), 2017b.
Liu, F., Chai, J., Wang, B., Liu, J., Zhang, X., and Wang, Z. Y.: Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions, Sci. Rep.-UK, 6, 24331, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep24331, 2016.
Ljungqvist, F. C., Krusic, P. J., Sundqvist, H. S., Zorita, E., Brattstrom, G., and Frank, D.: Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate variability over the past twelve centuries, Nature, 532, 94, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17418, 2016.
Logan, D. C.: Known knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns and the propagation of scientific enquiry, J. Exp. Bot., 60, 712–714, https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erp043, 2009.
Lough, J. M.: Climate records from corals, WIREs Clim. Change, 1, 318–331, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.39, 2010.
Luterbacher, J., Xoplaki, E., Casty, C., Wanner, H., Pauling, A., Kuettel, M., Rutishauser, T., Broennimann, S., Fischer, E., Fleitmann, D., Gonzalez-Rouco, F. J., Garcia-Herrera, R., Barriendos, M., Rodrigo, F., Carlos Gonzalez-Hidalgo, J., Angel Saz, M., Gimeno, L., Ribera, P., Brunet, M., Paeth, H., Rimbu, N., Felis, T., Jacobeit, J., Duenkeloh, A., Zorita, E., Guiot, J., Tuerkes, M., Alcoforado, M. J., Trigo, R., Wheeler, D., Tett, S., Mann, M. E., Touchan, R., Shindell, D. T., Silenzi, S., Montagna, P., Camuffo, D., Mariotti, A., Nanni, T., Brunetti, M., Maugeri, M., Zerefos, C., De Zolt, S., Lionello, P., Fatima Nunes, M., Rath, V., Beltrami, H., Garnier, E., and Ladurie, E. L. R.: Mediterranean climate variability over the last centuries: a review, in: Mediterranean Climate Variability, edited by: Lionello, P., MalanotteRizzoli, P., and Boscolo, R., Developments in Earth and Environmental Sciences, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 27–148, 2006.
Luterbacher, J., Koenig, S. J., Franke, J., van der Schrier, G., Zorita, E., Moberg, A., Jacobeit, J., Della-Marta, P. M., Kuettel, M., Xoplaki, E., Wheeler, D., Rutishauser, T., Stoessel, M., Wanner, H., Brazdil, R., Dobrovolny, P., Camuffo, D., Bertolin, C., van Engelen, A., Gonzalez-Rouco, F. J., Wilson, R., Pfister, C., Limanowka, D., Nordli, O., Leijonhufvud, L., Soderberg, J., Allan, R., Barriendos, M., Glaser, R., Riemann, D., Hao, Z., and Zerefos, C. S.: Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January–April climate over the past half millennium: results and insights from instrumental data, documentary evidence and coupled climate models, Climatic Change, 101, 201–234, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9782-0, 2010.
Luterbacher, J., Werner, J. P., Smerdon, J. E., Fernandez-Donado, L., González-Rouco, F. J., Barriopedro, D., Ljungqvist, F. C., Buentgen, U., Zorita, E., Wagner, S., Esper, J., McCarroll, D., Toreti, A., Frank, D., Jungclaus, J. H., Barriendos, M., Bertolin, C., Bothe, O., Brazdil, R., Camuffo, D., Dobrovolny, P., Gagen, M., Garica-Bustamante, E., Ge, Q., Gomez-Navarro, J. J., Guiot, J., Hao, Z., Hegerl, G. C., Holmgren, K., Klimenko, V. V., Martin-Chivelet, J., Pfister, C., Roberts, N., Schindler, A., Schurer, A., Solomina, O., von Gunten, L., Wahl, E., Wanner, H., Wetter, O., Xoplaki, E., Yuan, N., Zanchettin, D., Zhang, H., and Zerefos, C.: European summer temperatures since Roman times, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 024001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001, 2016.
MacDonald, G. M., Kremenetski, K. V., and Hidalgo, H. G.: Southern California and the perfect drought: Simultaneous prolonged drought in southern California and the Sacramento and Colorado River systems, Quatern. Int., 188, 11–23, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2007.06.027, 2008.
MacFarling Meure, C., Etheridge, D., Trudinger, C., Steele, P., Langenfelds, R., van Ommen, T., Smith, A., and Elkins, J.: Law dome CO2, CH4 and N2O ice core records extended to 2000 years BP, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L14810, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl026152, 2006.
Machida, T., Nakazawa, T., Fujii, Y., Aoki, S., and Watanabe, O.: Increase in the atmospheric nitrous-oxide concentration during the last 250 years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 22, 2921–2924, https://doi.org/10.1029/95gl02822, 1995.
Maher, N., McGregor, S., England, M. H., and Sen Gupta, A.: Effects of volcanism on tropical variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6024–6033, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl064751, 2015.
Mankin, J. S., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I., Williams, A. P., and Seager, R.: The curious case of projected 21st-century drying but greening in the American West, J. Climate, 30, 8689–8710, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0213.1, 2017.
Mann, M. E., Cane, M. A., Zebiak, S. E., and Clement, A.: Volcanic and solar forcing of the tropical Pacific over the past 1000 years, J. Climate, 18, 447–456, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-3276.1, 2005.
Mann, M. E., Zhang, Z., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R. S., Hughes, M. K., Shindell, D., Ammann, C., Faluvegi, G., and Ni, F.: Global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science, 326, 1256–1260, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1177303, 2009.
Markonis, Y. and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Scale-dependence of persistence in precipitation records, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 399–401, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2894, 2016.
Marvel, K. and Bonfils, C.: Identifying external influences on global precipitation, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 19301–19306, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1314382110, 2013.
Masato, G., Hoskins, B. J., and Woollings, T.: Winter and summer Northern Hemisphere blocking in CMIP5 models, J. Climate, 26, 7044–7059, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00466.1, 2013.
Masson-Delmotte, V., Schulz, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Beer, J., Ganopolski, A., González Rouco, J. F., Jansen, E., Lambeck, K., Luterbacher, J., Naish, T., Osborn, T., Otto-Bliesner, B., Quinn, T., Ramesh, R., Rojas, M., Shao, X., and Timmermann, A.: Information from Paleoclimate Archives, in: Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M. B., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 383–464, 2013.
Matsikaris, A., Widmann, M., and Jungclaus, J.: Assimilating continental mean temperatures to reconstruct the climate of the late pre-industrial period, Clim. Dynam., 46, 3547–3566, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2785-9, 2016.
Matthes, K., Funke, B., Andersson, M. E., Barnard, L., Beer, J., Charbonneau, P., Clilverd, M. A., Dudok de Wit, T., Haberreiter, M., Hendry, A., Jackman, C. H., Kretzschmar, M., Kruschke, T., Kunze, M., Langematz, U., Marsh, D. R., Maycock, A. C., Misios, S., Rodger, C. J., Scaife, A. A., Seppälä, A., Shangguan, M., Sinnhuber, M., Tourpali, K., Usoskin, I., van de Kamp, M., Verronen, P. T., and Versick, S.: Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2247–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, 2017.
Maxwell, R. S., Hessl, A. E., Cook, E. R., and Pederson, N.: A multispecies tree ring reconstruction of Potomac River streamflow (950–2001), Water Resour. Res., 47, 12, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010wr010019, 2011.
McCarroll, D. and Loader, N. J.: Stable isotopes in tree rings, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 23, 771–801, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.06.017, 2004.
McCarroll, D., Pettigrew, E., Luckman, A., Guibal, F., and Edouard, J. L.: Blue reflectance provides a surrogate for latewood density of high-latitude pine tree rings, Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res., 34, 450–453, https://doi.org/10.2307/1552203, 2002.
McConnell, M. C., Thunell, R. C., Lorenzoni, L., Astor, Y., Wright, J. D., and Fairbanks, R.: Seasonal variability in the salinity and oxygen isotopic composition of seawater from the Cariaco Basin, Venezuela: implications for paleosalinity reconstructions, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 10, Q06019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GC002035, 2009.
McGregor, S. and Timmermann, A.: The effect of explosive tropical volcanism on ENSO, J. Climate, 24, 2178–2191, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3990.1, 2011.
McGregor, H. V., Evans, M. N., Goosse, H., Leduc, G., Martrat, B., Addison, J. A., Mortyn, P. G., Oppo, D. W., Seidenkrantz, M.-S., Sicre, M.-A., Phipps, S. J., Selvaraj, K., Thirumalai, K., Filipsson, H. L., and Ersek, V.: Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era, Nat. Geosci., 8, 671, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2510, 2015.
McGregor, H. V., Martrat, B., Evans, M. N., Thompson, D., Reynolds, D., Addison, J., and Participants, W.: Data, age uncertainties and ocean δ18O under the spotlight for Ocean2k Phase 2, PAGES Mag., 24, 44, https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.24.1.44, 2016.
Meckler, A. N., Clarkson, M. O., Cobb, K. M., Sodemann, H., and Adkins, J. F.: Interglacial hydroclimate in the tropical West Pacific through the late pleistocene, Science, 336, 1301–1304, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1218340, 2012.
Meehl, G. A., Goddard, L., Murphy, J., Stouffer, R. J., Boer, G., Danabasoglu, G., Dixon, K., Giorgetta, M. A., Greene, A. M., Hawkins, E., Hegerl, G., Karoly, D., Keenlyside, N., Kimoto, M., Kirtman, B., Navarra, A., Pulwarty, R., Smith, D., Stammer, D., and Stockdale, T.: Decadal prediction, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1467–1485, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1, 2009.
Meko, D. M. and Baisan, C. H.: Pilot study of latewood-width of conifers as an indicator of variability of summer rainfall in the North American Monsoon Region, Int. J. Climatol., 21, 697–708, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.646, 2001.
Meko, D. M. and Woodhouse, C. A.: Tree-ring footprint of joint hydrologic drought in Sacramento and Upper Colorado river basins, western USA, J. Hydrol., 308, 196–213, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.11.003, 2005.
Meko, D. M. and Woodhouse, C. A.: Application of Streamflow Reconstruction to Water Resources Management, in: Dendroclimatology: Progress and Prospects, edited by: Hughes, M. K., Swetnam, T. W., and Diaz, H. F., Developments in Paleoenvironmental Research, Springer, Dordrecht, 231–261, 2011.
Meko, D., Cook, E. R., Stahle, D. W., Stockton, C. W., and Hughes, M. K.: Spatial patterns of tree-growth anomalies in the United-States and Southeastern Canada, J. Climate, 6, 1773–1786, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1773:spotga>2.0.co;2, 1993.
Meko, D. M., Woodhouse, C. A., Baisan, C. A., Knight, T., Lukas, J. J., Hughes, M. K., and Salzer, M. W.: Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River Basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L10705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007gl029988, 2007.
Meko, D. M., Woodhouse, C. A., and Morino, K.: Dendrochronology and links to streamflow, J. Hydrol., 412, 200–209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.11.041, 2012.
Melvin, T. M. and Briffa, K. R.: A “signal-free” approach to dendroclimatic standardisation, Dendrochronologia, 26, 71–86, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2007.12.001, 2008.
Messmer, M., Gómez-Navarro, J. J., and Raible, C. C.: Sensitivity experiments on the response of Vb cyclones to sea surface temperature and soil moisture changes, Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 477–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-477-2017, 2017.
Mikami, T.: Climatic reconstruction in historical times based on weather records, Geogr. Rev. Jpn. Ser. B, 61, 14–22, https://doi.org/10.4157/grj1984b.61.14, 1988.
Mikami, T.: Climatic variations in Japan reconstructed from historical documents, Weather, 63, 190–193, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.281, 2008.
Milinski, S., Bader, J., Haak, H., Siongco, A. C., and Jungclaus, J. H.: High atmospheric horizontal resolution eliminates the wind-driven coastal warm bias in the southeastern tropical Atlantic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 10455–10462, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070530, 2016.
Miller, W. P., DeRosa, G. M., Gangopadhyay, S., and Valdes, J. B.: Predicting regime shifts in flow of the Gunnison River under changing climate conditions, Water Resour. Res., 49, 2966–2974, 2013.
Misios, S., Mitchell, D. M., Gray, L. J., Tourpali, K., Matthes, K., Hood, L., Schmidt, H., Chiodo, G., Thieblemont, R., Rozanov, E., and Krivolutsky, A.: Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: effects of atmosphere–ocean coupling, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 928–941, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2695, 2016.
Mitchell, D. M., Misios, S., Gray, L. J., Tourpali, K., Matthes, K., Hood, L., Schmidt, H., Chiodo, G., Thieblemont, R., Rozanov, E., Shindell, D., and Krivolutsky, A.: Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: the stratospheric pathway, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 2390–2403, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2530, 2015.
Moerman, J. W., Cobb, K. M., Adkins, J. F., Sodemann, H., Clark, B., and Tuen, A. A.: Diurnal to interannual rainfall delta O-18 variations in northern Borneo driven by regional hydrology, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 369, 108–119, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.03.014, 2013.
Moerman, J. W., Cobb, K. M., Partin, J. W., Meckler, A. N., Carolin, S. A., Adkins, J. F., Lejau, S., Malang, J., Clark, B., and Tuen, A. A.: Transformation of ENSO-related rainwater to dripwater delta O-18 variability by vadose water mixing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7907–7915, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl061696, 2014.
Moreno, A., Valero-Garcés, B. L., González-Sampériz, P., and Rico, M.: Flood response to rainfall variability during the last 2000 years inferred from the Taravilla Lake record (Central Iberian Range, Spain), J. Paleolimnol., 40, 943–961, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-008-9209-3, 2008.
Mozny, M., Brazdil, R., Dobrovolny, P., Trnka, M., Potopova, V., Hlavinka, P., Bartosova, L., Zahradnicek, P., Stepanek, P., and Zalud, Z.: Drought reconstruction based on grape harvest dates for the Czech Lands, 1499–2012, Clim. Res., 70, 119–132, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01423, 2016.
Nash, D. J. and Grab, S. W.: “A sky of brass and burning winds”: documentary evidence of rainfall variability in the Kingdom of Lesotho, Southern Africa, 1824–1900, Climatic Change, 101, 617–653, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9707-y, 2010.
Nash, D. J., Pribyl, K., Klein, J., Neukom, R., Endfield, G. H., Adamson, G. C. D., and Kniveton, D. R.: Seasonal rainfall variability in southeast Africa during the nineteenth century reconstructed from documentary sources, Climatic Change, 134, 605–619, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1550-8, 2016.
Neukom, R., Luterbacher, J., Villalba, R., Kuettel, M., Frank, D., Jones, P. D., Grosjean, M., Esper, J., Lopez, L., and Wanner, H.: Multi-centennial summer and winter precipitation variability in southern South America, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010gl043680, 2010.
Neukom, R., Gergis, J., Karoly, D. J., Wanner, H., Curran, M., Elbert, J., González-Rouco, F., Linsley, B. K., Moy, A. D., Mundo, I., Raible, C. C., Steig, E. J., van Ommen, T., Vance, T., Villalba, R., Zinke, J., and Frank, D.: Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 362–367, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2174, 2014.
Neukom, R., Rohrer, M., Calanca, P., Salzmann, N., Huggel, C., Acuña, D., Christie, D. A., and Morales, M. S.: Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000–2100, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 084017, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084017, 2015.
NOAA: GPCC Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, available at: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.gpcc.html, last access: October 2017.
NOAA: GPCP Version 2.3 Combined Precipitation Data Set, available at: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html, last access: October 2017.
Nurhati, I. S., Cobb, K. M., Charles, C. D., and Dunbar, R. B.: Late 20th century warming and freshening in the central tropical Pacific, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21606, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040270, 2009.
Nurhati, I. S., Cobb, K. M., Charles, C. D., and Dunbar, R. B.: Correction to “Late 20th century warming and freshening in the central tropical Pacific”, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L24707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl049972, 2011a.
Nurhati, I. S., Cobb, K. M., and Di Lorenzo, E.: Decadal-scale SST and salinity variations in the Central Tropical Pacific: signatures of natural and anthropogenic climate change, J. Climate, 24, 3294–3308, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3852.1, 2011b.
Nurhati, I. S., Cobb, K. M., and Di Lorenzo, E.: Palmyra Island Coral 110 Year Sr∕Ca SST and δ18Osw, available at: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/10373, accessed 23 May 2016.
Oglesby, R., Feng, S., Hu, Q., and Rowe, C.: The role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on medieval drought in North America: synthesizing results from proxy data and climate models, Global Planet. Change, 84–85, 56–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.07.005, 2012.
Ortega, P., Lehner, F., Swingedouw, D., Masson-Delmotte, V., Raible, C. C., Casado, M., and Yiou, P.: A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium, Nature, 523, 71, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14518, 2015.
Osborn, T. J. and Hulme, M.: Development of a relationship between station and grid-box rainday frequencies for climate model evaluation, J. Climate, 10, 1885–1908, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1885:doarbs>2.0.co;2, 1997.
Oster, J. L., Ibarra, D. E., Winnick, M. J., and Maher, K.: Steering of westerly storms over western North America at the Last Glacial Maximum, Nat. Geosci., 8, 201–205, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2365, 2015.
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Hewitt, C. D., Marchitto, T. M., Brady, E., Abe-Ouchi, A., Crucifix, M., Murakami, S., and Weber, S. L.: Last Glacial Maximum ocean thermohaline circulation: PMIP2 model intercomparisons and data constraints, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L12706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029475, 2007.
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Russell, J. M., Clark, P. U., Liu, Z., Overpeck, J. T., Konecky, B., deMenocal, P., Nicholson, S. E., He, F., and Lu, Z.: Coherent changes of southeastern equatorial and northern African rainfall during the last deglaciation, Science, 346, 1223–1227, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1259531, 2014.
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Fasullo, J., Jahn, A., Landrum, L., Stevenson, S., Rosenbloom, N., Mai, A., and Strand, G.: CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE SINCE 850 CE An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System Model, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 735–754, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-14-00233.1, 2016.
Overpeck, J. T., Webb, T., and Prentice, I. C.: Quantitative interpretation of fossil pollen spectra: Dissimilarity coefficients and the method of modern analogs, Quaternary Res., 23, 87–108, https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(85)90074-2, 1985.
PAGES2k Consortium: A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era, Sci. data, 4, 170088, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.88, 2017.
PAGES 2k Consortium, Ahmed, M., Anchukaitis, K. J., Asrat, A., Borgaonkar, H. P., Braida, M., Buckley, B. M., Buntgen, U., Chase, B. M., Christie, D. A., Cook, E. R., Curran, M. A. J., Diaz, H. F., Esper, J., Fan, Z.-X., Gaire, N. P., Ge, Q., Gergis, J., González-Rouco, J. F., Goosse, H., Grab, S. W., Graham, N., Graham, R., Grosjean, M., Hanhijarvi, S. T., Kaufman, D. S., Kiefer, T., Kimura, K., Korhola, A. A., Krusic, P. J., Lara, A., Lezine, A.-M., Ljungqvist, F. C., Lorrey, A. M., Luterbacher, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., McCarroll, D., McConnell, J. R., McKay, N. P., Morales, M. S., Moy, A. D., Mulvaney, R., Mundo, I. A., Nakatsuka, T., Nash, D. J., Neukom, R., Nicholson, S. E., Oerter, H., Palmer, J. G., Phipps, S. J., Prieto, M. R., Rivera, A., Sano, M., Severi, M., Shanahan, T. M., Shao, X., Shi, F., Sigl, M., Smerdon, J. E., Solomina, O. N., Steig, E. J., Stenni, B., Thamban, M., Trouet, V., Turney, C. S. M., Umer, M., van Ommen, T., Verschuren, D., Viau, A. E., Villalba, R., Vinther, B. M., von Gunten, L., Wagner, S., Wahl, E. R., Wanner, H., Werner, J. P., White, J. W. C., Yasue, K., and Zorita, E.: Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia, Nat. Geosci., 6, 339–346, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1797, 2013.
PAGES 2k-PMIP3 group: Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium, Clim. Past, 11, 1673–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015, 2015.
Palmer, J. G., Cook, E. R., Turney, C. S. M., Allen, K., Fenwick, P., Cook, B. I., O'Donnell, A., Lough, J., Grierson, P., and Baker, P.: Drought variability in the eastern Australia and New Zealand summer drought atlas (ANZDA, CE 1500–2012) modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 124002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124002, 2015.
Partin, J. W., Cobb, K. M., Adkins, J. F., Clark, B., and Fernandez, D. P.: Millennial-scale trends in west Pacific warm pool hydrology since the Last Glacial Maximum, Nature, 449, 452–455, 2007.
Partin, J. W., Jenson, J. W., Banner, J. L., Quinn, T. M., Taylor, F. W., Sinclair, D., Hardt, B., Lander, M. A., Bell, T., Miklavic, B., Jocson, J. M. U., and Taborosi, D.: Relationship between modern rainfall variability, cave dripwater, and stalagmite geochemistry in Guam, USA, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 13, Q03013, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gc003930, 2012.
Partin, J. W., Quinn, T. M., Shen, C. C., Emile-Geay, J., Taylor, F. W., Maupin, C. R., Lin, K., Jackson, C. S., Banner, J. L., Sinclair, D. J., and Huh, C. A.: Multidecadal rainfall variability in South Pacific Convergence Zone as revealed by stalagmite geochemistry, Geology, 41, 1143–1146, https://doi.org/10.1130/G34718.1, 2013.
Partin, J. W., Konecky, B., and Iso2k Project Members: Iso2k: a community-driven effort to develop a global database of paleo-water isotopes covering the past two millennia., Eos Trans. AGU, Fall Meet. Suppl., 2015.
Pauling, A., Luterbacher, J., Casty, C., and Wanner, H.: Five hundred years of gridded high-resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to large-scale circulation, Clim. Dynam., 26, 387–405, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0090-8, 2006.
Pausata, F. S. R., Battisti, D. S., Nisancioglu, K. H., and Bitz, C. M.: Chinese stalagmite δ18O controlled by changes in the Indian monsoon during a simulated Heinrich event, Nat. Geosci., 4, 474–480, 2011.
Pausata, F. S. R., Karamperidou, C., Caballero, R., and Battisti, D. S.: ENSO response to high-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere: the role of the initial conditions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 8694–8702, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl069575, 2016.
Pederson, N., Cook, E. R., Jacoby, G. C., Peteet, D. M., and Griffin, K. L.: The influence of winter temperatures on the annual radial growth of six northern range margin tree species, Dendrochronologia, 22, 7–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2004.09.005, 2004.
Pederson, G. T., Gray, S. T., Woodhouse, C. A., Betancourt, J. L., Fagre, D. B., Littell, J. S., Watson, E., Luckman, B. H., and Graumlich, L. J.: The unusual nature of recent snowpack declines in the North American Cordillera, Science, 333, 332–335, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201570, 2011.
Peterson, T. C. and Vose, R. S.: An overview of the global historical climatology network temperature database, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2837–2849, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2837:aootgh>2.0.co;2, 1997.
Peyron, O., Guiot, J., Cheddadi, R., Tarasov, P., Reille, M., de Beaulieu, J.-L., Bottema, S., and Andrieu, V.: Climatic reconstruction in Europe for 18 000 yr B. P. from pollen data, Quaternary Res., 49, 183–196, https://doi.org/10.1006/qres.1997.1961, 1998.
Pfister, C., Brazdil, R., Glaser, R., Barriendos, M., Camuffo, D., Deutsch, M., Dobrovolny, P., Enzi, S., Guidoboni, E., Kotyza, O., Militzer, S., Racz, L., and Rodrigo, F. S.: Documentary evidence on climate in sixteenth-century Europe, Climatic Change, 43, 55–110, https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1005540707792, 1999.
Pfister, C., Luterbacher, J., Wanner, H., Wheeler, D., Brazdil, R., Ge, Q., Hao, Z., Moberg, A., Grab, S. W., and Rosario del Prieto, M.: Documentary evidence as climate proxies, White Paper written for the Proxy Uncertainty Workshop in Trieste, PAGES, Bern, Switzerland, 2008.
Phillips, A. S., Deser, C., and Fasullo, J.: Evaluating modes of variability in climate models, EOS Trans. AGU, 95, 453–455, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EO490002, 2014.
Phipps, S. J., McGregor, H. V., Gergis, J., Gallant, A. J. E., Neukom, R., Stevenson, S., Ackerley, D., Brown, J. R., Fischer, M. J., and van Ommen, T. D.: Paleoclimate data–model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years, J. Climate, 26, 6915–6936, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00108.1, 2013.
Pinot, S., Ramstein, G., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., Guiot, J., Stute, M., and Joussaume, S.: Tropical paleoclimates at the Last Glacial Maximum: comparison of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations and paleodata, Clim. Dynam., 15, 857–874, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050318, 1999.
Piovano, E., Córdoba, F., and Stutz, S.: Limnogeology in Southern South America: an overview, Lat. Am. J. Sedimentol. Basin Res., 21, 65–75, 2014.
Polyak, V. J., Cokendolpher, J. C., Norton, R. A., and Asmerom, Y.: Wetter and cooler late Holocene climate in the southwestern United States from mites preserved in stalagmites, Geology, 29, 643–646, https://doi.org/10.1130/00917613(2001)029<0643:WACLHC>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Pongratz, J., Raddatz, T., Reick, C. H., Esch, M., and Claussen, M.: Radiative forcing from anthropogenic land cover change since AD 800, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L02709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl036394, 2009.
Predybaylo, E., Stenchikov, G. L., Wittenberg, A. T., and Zeng, F.: Impacts of a Pinatubo-size volcanic eruption on ENSO, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 925–947, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jd025796, 2017.
Pulwarty, R. S., Jacobs, K. L., and Dole, R. M.: The Hardest Working River: Drought and Critical Water Problems in the Colorado River Basin, Drought and Water Crises: Science, Technology, and Management Issues, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, 86, 249–285, 2005.
Qian, W., Hu, Q., Zhu, Y., and Lee, D. K.: Centennial-scale dry-wet variations in East Asia, Clim. Dynam., 21, 77–89, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0319-3, 2003.
Raible, C. C., Casty, C., Luterbacher, J., Pauling, A., Esper, J., Frank, D. C., Buentgen, U., Roesch, A. C., Tschuck, P., Wild, M., Vidale, P.-L., Schaer, C., and Wanner, H.: Climate variability-observations, reconstructions, and model simulations for the Atlantic-European and Alpine region from 1500–2100 AD, Climatic Change, 79, 9–29, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9061-2, 2006.
Raible, C. C., Lehner, F., González-Rouco, J. F., and Fernández-Donado, L.: Changing correlation structures of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation from 1000 to 2100 AD, Clim. Past, 10, 537–550, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-537-2014, 2014.
Raible, C. C., Bazrenbold, O., and Gomez-Navarro, J. J.: Drought indices revisited – improving and testing of drought indices in a simulation of the last two millennia for Europe, Tellus A, 69, 1287492, https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2017.1296226, 2017.
Ramsey, C. B.: Deposition models for chronological records, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 27, 42–60, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2007.01.019, 2008.
Rao, M. P., Cook, B. I., Cook, E. R., D'Arrigo, R. D., Krusic, P. J., Anchukaitis, K. J., LeGrande, A. N., Buckley, B. M., Davi, N. K., Leland, C., and Griffin, K. L.: European and Mediterranean hydroclimate responses to tropical volcanic forcing over the last millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 5104–5112, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073057, 2017.
Rasbury, M. and Aharon, P.: ENSO-controlled rainfall variability records archived in tropical stalagmites from the mid-ocean island of Niue, South Pacific, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 7, Q07010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gc001232, 2006.
Ren, L., Linsley, B. K., Wellington, G. M., Schrag, D. P., and Hoegh-Guldberg, O.: Deconvolving the δ18O seawater component from subseasonal coral δ18O and Sr∕Ca at Rarotonga in the southwestern subtropical Pacific for the period 1726 to 1997, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 67, 1609–1621, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-7037(02)00917-1, 2003.
Renwick, J. A. and Wallace, J. M.: Relationships between North Pacific wintertime blocking, El Nino, and the PNA pattern, Mon. Weather Rev., 124, 2071–2076, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<2071:rbnpwb>2.0.co;2, 1996.
Rice, J. L., Woodhouse, C. A., and Lukas, J. J.: Science and decision making: water management and tree-ring data in the western United States, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 45, 1248–1259, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00358.x, 2009.
Richey, J. N. and Sachs, J. P.: Precipitation changes in the western tropical Pacific over the past millennium, Geology, 44, 671–674, https://doi.org/10.1130/g37822.1, 2016.
Risi, C., Bony, S., Vimeux, F., and Jouzel, J.: Correction to “Water-stable isotopes in the LMDZ4 general circulation model: Model evaluation for present-day and past climates and applications to climatic interpretations of tropical isotopic records”, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D24123, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015242, 2010.
Robock, A. and Liu, Y.: The volcanic signal in Goddard-Institute-for-Space-Studies – 3-dimensional model simulations, J. Climate, 7, 44–55, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<0044:tvsigi>2.0.co;2, 1994.
Robock, A. and Mao, J. P.: The volcanic signal in surface-temperature observations, J. Climate, 8, 1086–1103, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1086:tvsist>2.0.co;2, 1995.
Ropelewski, C. F. and Halpert, M. S.: North-American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Mon. Weather Rev., 114, 2352–2362, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<2352:napatp>2.0.co;2, 1986.
Rozanski, K., Araguás-Araguás, L., and Gonfiantini, R.: Isotopic patterns in modern global precipitation, in: Climate Change in Continental Isotopic Records, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., https://doi.org/10.1029/GM078p0001, 1–36, 1993.
Sachs, J. P., Sachse, D., Smittenberg, R. H., Zhang, Z., Battisti, D. S., and Golubic, S.: Southward movement of the Pacific intertropical convergence zone AD 1400–1850, Nat. Geosci., 2, 519–525, 2009.
Saurer, M., Kress, A., Leuenberger, M., Rinne, K. T., Treydte, K. S., and Siegwolf, R. T. W.: Influence of atmospheric circulation patterns on the oxygen isotope ratio of tree rings in the Alpine region, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D05118, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jd016861, 2012.
Scheff, J. and Frierson, D. M. W.: Robust future precipitation declines in CMIP5 largely reflect the poleward expansion of model subtropical dry zones, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl052910, 2012.
Schmidt, G. A.: Error analysis of paleosalinity calculations, Paleoceanography, 14, 422–429, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999pa900008, 1999.
Schmidt, G. A., Bigg, G. R., and Rohling, E. J.: Global Seawater Oxygen-18 Database – v1.21, available at: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/o18data/ (last access: October 2017), 1999.
Schmidt, G. A., LeGrande, A. N., and Hoffmann, G.: Water isotope expressions of intrinsic and forced variability in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D10103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007781, 2007.
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 33–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-33-2011, 2011.
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the Last Millennium (v1.1), Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 185–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-185-2012, 2012.
Schmidt, G. A., Annan, J. D., Bartlein, P. J., Cook, B. I., Guilyardi, E., Hargreaves, J. C., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., LeGrande, A. N., Konecky, B., Lovejoy, S., Mann, M. E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Risi, C., Thompson, D., Timmermann, A., Tremblay, L.-B., and Yiou, P.: Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5, Clim. Past, 10, 221–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014.
Schneider, D. P., Ammann, C. M., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Kaufman, D. S.: Climate response to large, high-latitude and low-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Community Climate System Model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D15101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd011222, 2009.
Schneider, U., Becker, A., Finger, P., Meyer-Christoffer, A., Ziese, M., and Rudolf, B.: GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 115, 15–40, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0860-x, 2014.
Schneider, L., Smerdon, J. E., Pretis, F., Hartl-Meier, C., and Esper, J.: A new archive of large volcanic events over the past millennium derived from reconstructed summer temperatures, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 094005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a1b, 2017.
Scholz, D. and Hoffmann, D. L.: StalAge – an algorithm designed for construction of speleothem age models, Quat. Geochronol., 6, 369–382, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quageo.2011.02.002, 2011.
Scholz, D., Hoffmann, D. L., Hellstrom, J., and Ramsey, C. B.: A comparison of different methods for speleothem age modelling, Quat. Geochronol., 14, 94–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quageo.2012.03.015, 2012.
Schurer, A. P., Hegerl, G. C., Mann, M. E., Tett, S. F. B., and Phipps, S. J.: Separating forced from chaotic climate variability over the past millennium, J. Climate, 26, 6954–6973, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00826.1, 2013.
Seager, R.: The turn of the century North American drought: global context, dynamics, and past analogs, J. Climate, 20, 5527–5552, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1529.1, 2007.
Seager, R., Harnik, N., Robinson, W. A., Kushnir, Y., Ting, M., Huang, H. P., and Velez, J.: Mechanisms of ENSO-forcing of hemispherically symmetric precipitation variability, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 1501–1527, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.96, 2005.
Self, S., Rampino, M. R., Zhao, J., and Katz, M. G.: Volcanic aerosol perturbations and strong El Nino events: No general correlation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 1247–1250, https://doi.org/10.1029/97gl01127, 1997.
Seppälä, A. and Clilverd, M. A.: Energetic particle forcing of the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere: comparison to solar irradiance forcing, Front. Phys., 2, https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2014.00025, 2014.
Shapiro, A. I., Schmutz, W., Rozanov, E., Schoell, M., Haberreiter, M., Shapiro, A. V., and Nyeki, S.: A new approach to the long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing, Astron. Astrophys., 529, 8, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201016173, 2011.
Sharma, S., Magnuson, J. J., Batt, R. D., Winslow, L. A., Korhonen, J., and Aono, Y.: Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years, Sci. Reports, 6, 25061, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep25061, 2016.
Sheffield, J., Barrett, A. P., Colle, B., Fernando, D. N., Fu, R., Geil, K. L., Hu, Q., Kinter, J., Kumar, S., Langenbrunner, B., Lombardo, K., Long, L. N., Maloney, E., Mariotti, A., Meyerson, J. E., Mo, K. C., Neelin, J. D., Nigam, S., Pan, Z. T., Ren, T., Ruiz-Barradas, A., Serra, Y. L., Seth, A., Thibeault, J. M., Stroeve, J. C., Yang, Z., and Yin, L.: North American climate in CMIP5 experiments. Part I: Evaluation of historical simulations of continental and regional climatology, J. Climate, 26, 9209–9245, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00592.1, 2013.
Shen, C., Wang, W.-C., Peng, Y., Xu, Y., and Zheng, J.: Variability of summer precipitation over Eastern China during the last millennium, Clim. Past, 5, 129–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-129-2009, 2009.
Shen, C.-C., Wu, C.-C., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Hsieh, Y.-T., Gallet, S., Chang, C.-C., Li, T.-Y., Doan Dinh, L., Kano, A., Hori, M., and Spoetl, C.: High-precision and high-resolution carbonate Th-230 dating by MC-ICP-MS with SEM protocols, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 99, 71–86, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2012.09.018, 2012.
Shen, C.-C., Lin, K., Duan, W., Jiang, X., Partin, J. W., Edwards, R. L., Cheng, H., and Tan, M.: Testing the annual nature of speleothem banding, Sci. Rep.-UK, 3, 2633, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep02633, 2013.
Shindell, D. T., Schmidt, G. A., Mann, M. E., and Faluvegi, G.: Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 109, D05104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003jd004151, 2004.
Shindell, D. T., Faluvegi, G., Miller, R. L., Schmidt, G. A., Hansen, J. E., and Sun, S.: Solar and anthropogenic forcing of tropical hydrology, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl027468, 2006.
Shuman, B., Henderson, A. K., Colman, S. M., Stone, J. R., Fritz, S. C., Stevens, L. R., Power, M. J., and Whitlock, C.: Holocene lake-level trends in the Rocky Mountains, USA, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 28, 1861–1879, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.03.003, 2009.
Sigl, M., Winstrup, M., McConnell, J. R., Welten, K. C., Plunkett, G., Ludlow, F., Buentgen, U., Caffee, M., Chellman, N., Dahl-Jensen, D., Fischer, H., Kipfstuhl, S., Kostick, C., Maselli, O. J., Mekhaldi, F., Mulvaney, R., Muscheler, R., Pasteris, D. R., Pilcher, J. R., Salzer, M., Schuepbach, S., Steffensen, J. P., Vinther, B. M., and Woodruff, T. E.: Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2500 years, Nature, 523, 543, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14565, 2015.
Smerdon, J. E.: Climate models as a test bed for climate reconstruction methods: pseudoproxy experiments, WIREs Clim. Change, 3, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.149, 2012.
Smerdon, J. E. and Pollack, H. N.: Reconstructing Earth's surface temperature over the past 2000 years: the science behind the headlines, WIREs Clim. Change, 7, 746–771, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.418, 2016.
Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I., Cook, E. R., and Seager, R.: Bridging past and future climate across paleoclimatic reconstructions, observations, and models: a hydroclimate case study, J. Climate, 28, 3212–3231, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00417.1, 2015.
Smerdon, J. E., Luterbacher, J., and Phipps, S. J.: Hydro2k: integrating proxy data and models for insights into past and future hydroclimate, PAGES Mag., 24, 45, https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.24.1.45, 2016.
Sperber, K., Annamalai, H., Kang, I. S., Kitoh, A., Moise, A., Turner, A., Wang, B., and Zhou, T.: The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2711–2744, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1607-6, 2013.
St. George, S.: An overview of tree-ring width records across the Northern Hemisphere, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 95, 132–150, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.04.029, 2014.
St. George, S., Meko, D. M., and Cook, E. R.: The seasonality of precipitation signals embedded within the North American Drought Atlas, Holocene, 20, 983–988, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683610365937, 2010.
St. George, S. and Ault, T. R.: The imprint of climate within Northern Hemisphere trees, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 89, 1–4, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.01.007, 2014.
Stager, J. C., Ruzmaikin, A., Conway, D., Verburg, P., and Mason, P. J.: Sunspots, El Nino, and the levels of Lake Victoria, East Africa, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D15106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jd008362, 2007.
Stahle, D. W.: Useful strategies for the development of tropical tree-ring chronologies, IAWA J., 20, 249–253, 1999.
Stahle, D. W., Cleaveland, M. K., Blanton, D. B., Therrell, M. D., and Gay, D. A.: The Lost Colony and Jamestown droughts, Science, 280, 564–567, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.280.5363.564, 1998.
Stahle, D. W., Cleaveland, M. K., Grissino-Mayer, H. D., Griffin, R. D., Fye, F. K., Therrell, M. D., Burnette, D. J., Meko, D. M., and Diaz, J. V.: Cool- and warm-season precipitation reconstructions over western New Mexico, J. Climate, 22, 3729–3750, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2752.1, 2009.
Steiger, N. and Smerdon, J.: A pseudoproxy assessment of data assimilation for reconstructing the atmosphere-ocean dynamics of hydroclimate extremes, Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-69, in review, 2017.
Steiger, N. J., Hakim, G. J., Steig, E. J., Battisti, D. S., and Roe, G. H.: Assimilation of time-averaged pseudoproxies for climate reconstruction, J. Climate, 27, 426–441, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00693.1, 2014.
Steinhilber, F., Beer, J., and Froehlich, C.: Total solar irradiance during the Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl040142, 2009.
Stephans, C. L., Quinn, T. M., Taylor, F. W., and Corrège, T.: Assessing the reproducibility of coral-based climate records, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L18210, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020343, 2004.
Stephens, G. L., L'Ecuyer, T., Forbes, R., Gettelman, A., Golaz, J.-C., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Suzuki, K., Gabriel, P., and Haynes, J.: Dreary state of precipitation in global models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D24211, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jd014532, 2010.
Stevenson, S., Powell, B. S., Merrifield, M. A., Cobb, K. M., Nusbaumer, J., and Noone, D.: Characterizing seawater oxygen isotopic variability in a regional ocean modeling framework: implications for coral proxy records, Paleoceanography, 30, 1573–1593, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015PA002824, 2015a.
Stevenson, S., Timmermann, A., Chikamoto, Y., Langford, S., and DiNezio, P.: Stochastically generated North American megadroughts, J. Climate, 28, 1865–1880, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00689.1, 2015b.
Stevenson, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Fasullo, J., and Brady, E.: “El Niño Like” hydroclimate responses to last millennium volcanic eruptions, J. Climate, 29, 2907–2921, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0239.1, 2016.
Stevenson, S., Fasullo, J., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Tomas, R., and Gao, C. C.: Role of eruption season in reconciling model and proxy responses to tropical volcanism, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 1822–1826, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1612505114, 2017.
Stockton, C. W. and Jacoby, G. C.: Long-Term Surface-Water Supply and Streamflow Trends in the Upper Colorado River Basin, Lake Powell Res. Proj. Bull. 18, Natl. Sci. Found., Arlington, VA, 1976.
Stokes, M. A. and Smiley, T. L.: An Introduction to Tree-Ring Dating, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois, USA, 1968.
Stuiver, M. and Braziunas, T. F.: Modeling atmospheric 14C influences and 14C ages of marine samples to 10 000 BC, Radiocarbon, 35, 137–189, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0033822200013874, 1993.
Sturm, C., Zhang, Q., and Noone, D.: An introduction to stable water isotopes in climate models: benefits of forward proxy modelling for paleoclimatology, Clim. Past, 6, 115–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-115-2010, 2010.
Suess, H. E.: The radiocarbon record in tree rings of the last 8000 years, Radiocarbon, 22, 200–209, 1980.
Swann, A. L. S., Hoffman, F. M., Koven, C. D., and Randerson, J. T.: Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 10019–10024, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1604581113, 2016.
Teal, L. R., Bulling, M. T., Parker, E. R., and Solan, M.: Global patterns of bioturbation intensity and mixed depth of marine soft sediments, Aquat. Biol., 2, 207–218, 2008.
Terray, L., Corre, L., Cravatte, S., Delcroix, T., Reverdin, G., and Ribes, A.: Near-surface salinity as nature's rain gauge to detect human influence on the tropical water cycle, J. Climate, 25, 958–977, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05025.1, 2011.
Tharammal, T., Bala, G., and Noone, D.: Impact of deep convection on the isotopic amount effect in tropical precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 1505–1523, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025555, 2017.
Thompson, D. M., Ault, T. R., Evans, M. N., Cole, J. E., and Emile-Geay, J.: Comparison of observed and simulated tropical climate trends using a forward model of coral δ18O, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl048224, 2011.
Thomson, D. J.: Spectrum estimation and harmonic-analysis, Proc. IEEE, 70, 1055–1096, https://doi.org/10.1109/proc.1982.12433, 1982.
Tierney, J. E., Oppo, D. W., Rosenthal, Y., Russell, J. M., and Linsley, B. K.: Coordinated hydrological regimes in the Indo-Pacific region during the past two millennia, Paleoceanography, 25, PA1102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009PA001871, 2010.
Tierney, J. E., Smerdon, J. E., Anchukaitis, K. J., and Seager, R.: Multidecadal variability in East African hydroclimate controlled by the Indian Ocean, Nature, 493, 389–392, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11785, 2013.
Tierney, J. E., Abram, N. J., Anchukaitis, K. J., Evans, M. N., Giry, C., Kilbourne, K. H., Saenger, C. P., Wu, H. C., and Zinke, J.: Tropical sea surface temperatures for the past four centuries reconstructed from coral archives, Paleoceanography, 30, 226–252, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014PA002717, 2015a.
Tierney, J. E., Ummenhofer, C. C., and deMenocal, P. B.: Past and future rainfall in the Horn of Africa, Sci. Adv., 1, e1500682–e1500682, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500682, 2015b.
Tierney, J. E., Smerdon, J., Anchukaitis, K. J., and Seager, R.: East African 675 Year MCEOF Hydroclimatic Lake Proxy Data Synthesis, available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/13686, last access: October 2017.
Tingley, M. P., Craigmile, P. F., Haran, M., Li, B., Mannshardt, E., and Rajaratnam, B.: Piecing together the past: statistical insights into paleoclimatic reconstructions, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 35, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.01.012, 2012.
Todd, B., Macdonald, N., Chiverrell, R. C., Caminade, C., and Hooke, J. M.: Severity, duration and frequency of drought in SE England from 1697 to 2011, Clim. Change, 121, 673–687, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0970-6, 2013.
Tolwinski-Ward, S. E., Evans, M. N., Hughes, M. K., and Anchukaitis, K. J.: An efficient forward model of the climate controls on interannual variation in tree-ring width, Clim. Dynam., 36, 2419–2439, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0945-5, 2011.
Toohey, M., Stevens, B., Schmidt, H., and Timmreck, C.: Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA v1.0): an idealized forcing generator for climate simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4049–4070, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4049-2016, 2016.
Touchan, R., Xoplaki, E., Funkhouser, G., Luterbacher, J., Hughes, M. K., Erkan, N., Akkemik, U., and Stephan, J.: Reconstructions of spring/summer precipitation for the Eastern Mediterranean from tree-ring widths and its connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation, Clim. Dynam., 25, 75–98, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0016-5, 2005.
Touchan, R., Anchukaitis, K. J., Meko, D. M., Sabir, M., Attalah, S., and Aloui, A.: Spatiotemporal drought variability in northwestern Africa over the last nine centuries, Clim. Dynam., 37, 237–252, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0804-4, 2011.
Touchan, R., Anchukaitis, K. J., Shishov, V. V., Sivrikaya, F., Attieh, J., Ketmen, M., Stephan, J., Mitsopoulos, I., Christou, A., and Meko, D. M.: Spatial patterns of eastern Mediterranean climate influence on tree growth, Holocene, 24, 381–392, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683613518594, 2014.
Trauth, M. H.: TURBO2: A MATLAB simulation to study the effects of bioturbation on paleoceanographic time series, Comput. Geosci., 61, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2013.05.003, 2013.
Treble, P., Shelley, J. M. G., and Chappell, J.: Comparison of high resolution sub-annual records of trace elements in a modern (1911–1992) speleothem with instrumental climate data from southwest Australia, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 216, 141–153, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00504-1, 2003.
Trenberth, K. E. and Dai, A.: Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L15702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007gl030524, 2007.
Treydte, K. S., Schleser, G. H., Helle, G., Frank, D. C., Winiger, M., Haug, G. H., and Esper, J.: The twentieth century was the wettest period in northern Pakistan over the past millennium, Nature, 440, 1179–1182, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04743, 2006.
Treydte, K., Frank, D., Esper, J., Andreu, L., Bednarz, Z., Berninger, F., Boettger, T., D'Alessandro, C. M., Etien, N., Filot, M., Grabner, M., Guillemin, M. T., Gutierrez, E., Haupt, M., Helle, G., Hilasvuori, E., Jungner, H., Kalela-Brundin, M., Krapiec, M., Leuenberger, M., Loader, N. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pazdur, A., Pawelczyk, S., Pierre, M., Planells, O., Pukiene, R., Reynolds-Henne, C. E., Rinne, K. T., Saracino, A., Saurer, M., Sonninen, E., Stievenard, M., Switsur, V. R., Szczepanek, M., Szychowska-Krapiec, E., Todaro, L., Waterhouse, J. S., Weigl, M., and Schleser, G. H.: Signal strength and climate calibration of a European tree-ring isotope network, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L24302, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007gl031106, 2007.
Truebe, S. A., Ault, T. R., Cole, J. E., A Forward Model of Cave Dripwater δ18O and Application to Speleothem Records, IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 9, 012022, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/9/1/012022, 2010.
Urrutia, R. B., Lara, A., Villalba, R., Christie, D. A., Le Quesne, C., and Cuq, A.: Multicentury tree ring reconstruction of annual streamflow for the Maule River watershed in south central Chile, Water Resour. Res., 47, W06527, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010wr009562, 2011.
van der Schrier, G., Jones, P. D., and Briffa, K. R.: The sensitivity of the PDSI to the Thornthwaite and Penman–Monteith parameterizations for potential evapotranspiration, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D03106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jd015001, 2011.
Verschuren, D., Laird, K. R., and Cumming, B. F.: Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1100 years, Nature, 403, 410–414, 2000.
Vieira, L. E. A. and Solanki, S. K.: Evolution of the solar magnetic flux on time scales of years to millenia, Astron. Astrophys., 509, 13, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/200913276, 2010.
Vieira, L. E. A., Solanki, S. K., Krivova, N. A., and Usoskin, I.: Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene, Astron. Astrophys., 531, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201015843, 2011.
Voelker, S. L., Meinzer, F. C., Lachenbruch, B., Brooks, J. R., and Guyette, R. P.: Drivers of radial growth and carbon isotope discrimination of bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa Michx.) across continental gradients in precipitation, vapour pressure deficit and irradiance, Plant Cell Environ., 37, 766–779, https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.12196, 2014.
Vuille, M. and Werner, M.: Stable isotopes in precipitation recording South American summer monsoon and ENSO variability – observations and model results. Climate Dyn., 25, 401–413, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0049-9, 2005.
Vuille, M., Werner, M., Bradley, R. S., Keimig, F.: Stable isotopes in precipitation in the Asian monsoon region. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D23108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006022, 2005a.
Vuille, M., Werner, M., Bradley, R. S., Chan, R. S., and Keimig, F.: Stable isotopes in East African precipitation record Indian Ocean Zonal mode. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L21705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023876, 2005b.
Wahl, E. R., Diaz, H. F., Smerdon, J. E., and Ammann, C. M.: Late winter temperature response to large tropical volcanic eruptions in temperate western North America: relationship to ENSO phases, Global Planet. Change, 122, 238–250, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.005, 2014.
Wahl, E., Diaz, H., Vose, R., and Gross, W.: Multicentury Evaluation of Recovery from Strong Precipitation Deficits in California, J. Climate, 30, 6053–6063, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0423.1, 2017.
Wang, Y. J., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., An, Z. S., Wu, J. Y., Shen, C. C., and Dorale, J. A.: A high-resolution absolute-dated late pleistocene monsoon record from Hulu Cave, China, Science, 294, 2345–2348, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1064618, 2001.
Wang, Y. M., Lean, J. L., and Sheeley, N. R.: Modeling the sun's magnetic field and irradiance since 1713, Astrophys. J., 625, 522–538, https://doi.org/10.1086/429689, 2005.
Wang, X., Auler, A. S., Edwards, R. L., Cheng, H., Ito, E., Wang, Y., Kong, X., and Solheid, M.: Millennial-scale precipitation changes in southern Brazil over the past 90,000 years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L23701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031149, 2007.
Wang, C., Zhang, L., Lee, S.-K., Wu, L., and Mechoso, C. R.: A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 201–205, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2118, 2014a.
Wang, J., Emile-Geay, J., Guillot, D., Smerdon, J. E., and Rajaratnam, B.: Evaluating climate field reconstruction techniques using improved emulations of real-world conditions, Clim. Past, 10, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1-2014, 2014b.
Wang, J., Emile-Geay, J., Guillot, D., McKay, N. P., and Rajaratnam, B.: Fragility of reconstructed temperature patterns over the Common Era: Implications for model evaluation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 7162–7170, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl065265, 2015.
Wegmann, M., Broennimann, S., Bhend, J., Franke, J., Folini, D., Wild, M., and Luterbacher, J.: Volcanic influence on European summer precipitation through monsoons: possible cause for “Years without Summer”, J. Climate, 27, 3683–3691, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00524.1, 2014.
Weigel, A. P., Knutti, R., Liniger, M. A., and Appenzeller, C.: Risks of model weighting in multimodel climate projections, J. Climate, 23, 4175–4191, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3594.1, 2010.
Werner, J. P. and Tingley, M. P.: Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age–depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model, Clim. Past, 11, 533–545, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-533-2015, 2015.
Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Weingartner, R., Luterbacher, J., Reist, T., and Troesch, J.: The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 56, 733–758, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.583613, 2011.
Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Werner, J. P., Zorita, E., Wagner, S., Seneviratne, S. I., Herget, J., Gruenewald, U., Luterbacher, J., Alcoforado, M.-J., Barriendos, M., Bieber, U., Brazdil, R., Burmeister, K. H., Camenisch, C., Contino, A., Dobrovolny, P., Glaser, R., Himmelsbach, I., Kiss, A., Kotyza, O., Labbe, T., Limanowka, D., Litzenburger, L., Nordl, O., Pribyl, K., Retso, D., Riemann, D., Rohr, C., Siegfried, W., Soderberg, J., and Spring, J.-L.: The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540-a worst case, Climatic Change, 125, 349–363, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2, 2014.
Widmann, M., Goosse, H., van der Schrier, G., Schnur, R., and Barkmeijer, J.: Using data assimilation to study extratropical Northern Hemisphere climate over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 6, 627–644, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-627-2010, 2010.
Wigley, T. M. L., Briffa, K. R., and Jones, P. D.: On the average value of correlated time-series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology, J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol., 23, 201–213, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<0201:otavoc>2.0.co;2, 1984.
Williams, A. P., Michaelsen, J., Leavitt, S. W., and Still, C. J.: Using tree rings to predict the response of tree growth to climate change in the continental United States during the twenty-first century, Earth Interact., 14, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010EI362.1, 2010.
Williams, A. P., Funk, C., Michaelsen, J., Rauscher, S. A., Robertson, I., Wils, T. H. G., Koprowski, M., Eshetu, Z., and Loader, N. J.: Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1222-y, 2012.
Wils, T. H. G., Robertson, I., Eshetu, Z., Koprowski, M., Sass-Klaassen, U. G. W., Touchan, R., and Loader, N. J.: Towards a reconstruction of Blue Nile baseflow from Ethiopian tree rings, Holocene, 20, 837–848, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683610365940, 2010.
Wilson, R., Cook, E., D'Arrigo, R., Riedwyl, N., Evans, M. N., Tudhope, A., and Allan, R.: Reconstructing ENSO: the influence of method, proxy data, climate forcing and teleconnections, J. Quaternary Sci., 25, 62–78, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.1297, 2010.
Wilson, R., Rao, R., Rydval, M., Wood, C., Larsson, L.-A., and Luckman, B. H.: Blue Intensity for dendroclimatology: the BC blues: a case study from British Columbia, Canada, Holocene, 24, 1428–1438, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683614544051, 2014.
Wilson, R., Anchukaitis, K., Briffa, K. R., Buentgen, U., Cook, E., D'Arrigo, R., Davi, N., Esper, J., Frank, D., Gunnarson, B., Hegerl, G., Helama, S., Klesse, S., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Myglan, V., Osborn, T. J., Rydval, M., Schneider, L., Schurer, A., Wiles, G., Zhang, P., and Zorita, E.: Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The long term context, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 134, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.12.005, 2016.
Winter, A., Miller, T., Kushnir, Y., Sinha, A., Timmermann, A., Jury, M. R., Gallup, C., Cheng, H., and Edwards, R. L.: Evidence for 800 years of North Atlantic multi-decadal variability from a Puerto Rican speleothem, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 308, 23–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.05.028, 2011.
Winter, A., Zanchettin, D., Miller, T., Kushnir, Y., Black, D., Lohmann, G., Burnett, A., Haug, G. H., Estrella-Martinez, J., Breitenbach, S. F. M., Beaufort, L., Rubino, A., and Cheng, H.: Persistent drying in the tropics linked to natural forcing, Nat. Commun., 6, 7627, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8627, 2015.
Wise, E. K. and Dannenberg, M. P.: Persistence of pressure patterns over North America and the North Pacific since AD 1500, Nat. Commun., 5, 6, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms5912, 2014.
Wittenberg, A. T.: Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038710, 2009.
Woodhouse, C. A. and Lukas, J. J.: Drought, tree rings and water resource management in Colorado, Can. Water Resour. J., 31, 297–310, 2006.
Woodhouse, C. A. and Lukas, J. J.: Multi-century tree-ring reconstructions of Colorado streamflow for water resource planning, Climatic Change, 78, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9055-0, 2006.
Woodhouse, C. A., Gray, S. T., and Meko, D. M.: Updated streamflow reconstructions for the Upper Colorado River Basin, Water Resour. Res., 42, 16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005wr004455, 2006.
Xoplaki, E., Fleitmann, D., Luterbacher, J., Wagner, S., Haldon, J. F., Zorita, E., Telelis, I., Toreti, A., and Izdebski, A.: The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium: A review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 136, 229–252, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.10.004, 2016.
Xu, H., Lan, J., Sheng, E., Liu, B., Yu, K., Ye, Y., Shi, Z., Cheng, P., Wang, X., Zhou, X., and Yeager, K. M.: Hydroclimatic contrasts over Asian monsoon areas and linkages to tropical Pacific SSTs, Sci. Rep.-UK, 6, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep33177, 2016.
Yan, Z., Ye, D., and Wang, C.: Climatic jumps in the flood/drought historical chronology of central China, Clim. Dynam., 6, 153–160, 1992.
Yao, S. Y.: The geographical distribution of floods and droughts in Chinese history, 206 B. C.-A. D. 1911, The Far Eastern Quarterly, 2, 357–378, https://doi.org/10.2307/2049242, 1943.
Yi, L., Yu, H., Ge, J., Lai, Z., Xu, X., Qin, L., and Peng, S.: Reconstructions of annual summer precipitation and temperature in north-central China since 1470 AD based on drought/flood index and tree-ring records, Climatic Change, 110, 469–498, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0052-6, 2012.
Yoshimori, M., Stocker, T. F., Raible, C. C., and Renold, M.: Externally forced and internal variability in ensemble climate simulations of the Maunder Minimum, J. Climate, 18, 4253–4270, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3537.1, 2005.
Yoshimori, M., Raible, C. C., Stocker, T. F., and Renold, M.: On the interpretation of low-latitude hydrological proxy records based on Maunder Minimum AOGCM simulations, Clim. Dynam., 27, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0144-6, 2006.
Young, G. H. F., McCarroll, D., Loader, N. J., and Kirchhefer, A. J.: A 500-year record of summer near-ground solar radiation from tree-ring stable carbon isotopes, Holocene, 20, 315–324, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683609351902, 2010.
Zanchettin, D., Timmreck, C., Graf, H. F., Rubino, A., Lorenz, S., Lohmann, K., Krüger, K., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Bi-decadal variability excited in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system by strong tropical volcanic eruptions, Clim. Dynam., 39, 419–444, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1167-1, 2012.
Zanchettin, D., Bothe, O., Graf, H. F., Lorenz, S. J., Luterbacher, J., Timmreck, C., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Background conditions influence the decadal climate response to strong volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 4090–4106, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50229, 2013a.
Zanchettin, D., Rubino, A., Matei, D., Bothe, O., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Multidecadal-to-centennial SST variability in the MPI-ESM simulation ensemble for the last millennium, Clim. Dynam., 40, 1301–1318, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1361-9, 2013b.
Zanchettin, D., Bothe, O., Lehner, F., Ortega, P., Raible, C. C., and Swingedouw, D.: Reconciling reconstructed and simulated features of the winter Pacific/North American pattern in the early 19th century, Clim. Past, 11, 939–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-939-2015, 2015.
Zanchettin, D., Khodri, M., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Schmidt, A., Gerber, E. P., Hegerl, G., Robock, A., Pausata, F. S. R., Ball, W. T., Bauer, S. E., Bekki, S., Dhomse, S. S., LeGrande, A. N., Mann, G. W., Marshall, L., Mills, M., Marchand, M., Niemeier, U., Poulain, V., Rozanov, E., Rubino, A., Stenke, A., Tsigaridis, K., and Tummon, F.: The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016.
Zanchettin, D.: Aerosol and solar irradiance effects on decadal climate variability and predictability, Current Climate Change Reports, 3, 150–162, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0065-y, 2017.
Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. C., and Hodges, K. I.: The ability of CMIP5 models to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones, J. Climate, 26, 5379–5396, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00501.1, 2013.
Zhang, P. Y.: Climate Change in China During Historical Times, Shandong Science and Technology Press, Jinan, China, 1996.
Zhang, J. and Crowley, T. J.: Historical climate records in China and reconstruction of past climates, J. Climate, 2, 833–849, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<0833:hcrica>2.0.co;2, 1989.
Zhang, P. Y. and Gong, G. F.: Ancient precipitation records in China, World Meteorol. Org. Bull., 29, 7–11, 1980.
Zhang, D. and Liu, Y.: A new approach to the reconstruction of temporal rainfall sequences from 1724–1904 Qing Dynasty weather records from Beijing, Quaternary Sci., 22, 199–208, 2002.
Zhang, D. and Wang, P. K.: A study on Meiyu activity of eighteenth century in the lower Yangtze Region, Sci. China Ser. B, 34, 1237–1245, 1991.
Zhang, D. E., Liu, C. Z., and Jiang, J. M.: Reconstruction of six regional dry/wet series and their abrupt changes during the last 1000 years in east China, Quaternary Sci., 1, 1–11, 1997.
Zhang, D., Li, X., and Liang, Y.: Supplement of yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500-year period, 1993–2000, J. Appl. Meteorol. Sci., 14, 379–389, 2003.
Zhang, D., Liu, Y., Liang, Y., and Li, J.: Reconstruction of annual and seasonal precipitation series of Nanjing, Suzhou and Hangzhou during the 18th century, Quaternary Sci., 25, 121–128, 2005.
Zhang, P., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Chen, F., Wang, Y., Yang, X., Liu, J., Tan, M., Wang, X., Liu, J., An, C., Dai, Z., Zhou, J., Zhang, D., Jia, J., Jin, L., and Johnson, K. R.: A test of climate, sun, and culture relationships from an 1810-year Chinese cave record, Science, 322, 940–942, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1163965, 2008.
Zhang, T., Simelton, E., Huang, Y., and Shi, Y.: A Bayesian assessment of the current irrigation water supplies capacity under projected droughts for the 2030s in China, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 178, 56–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.06.002, 2013.
Zheng, J. Y., Hao, Z. X., and Ge, Q. S.: Variation of precipitation for the last 300 years over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, Sci. China Ser. D, 48, 2182–2193, https://doi.org/10.1360/03yd0392, 2005.
Zheng, J., Wang, W. C., Ge, Q., Man, Z., and Zhang, P.: Precipitation variability and extreme events in eastern China during the past 1500 years, Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 17, 579–592, https://doi.org/10.3319/TAO.2006.17.3.579(A), 2006.
Zheng, J. Y., Ge, Q. S., Hao, Z. X., Liu, H. L., Man, Z. M., Hou, Y. J., and Fang, X. Q.: Paleoclimatology proxy recorded in historical documents and method for reconstruction on climate change, Quaternary Sci., 34, 1186–1196, 2014.
Zinke, J., Pfeiffer, M., Timm, O., Dullo, W. C., Kroon, D., and Thomassin, B. A.: Mayotte coral reveals hydrological changes in the western Indian Ocean between 1881 and 1994, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L23707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl035634, 2008.
Zinke, J., Pfeiffer, M., Timm, O., Dullo, W. C., Kroon, D., and Thomassin, B. A.: Mayotte – coupled Sr∕Ca and δ18O data, available at: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/8606, last access: 23 May 2016.
Short summary
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of...
