Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2093-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2093-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Nov 2023
Research article |
| 01 Nov 2023
| 01 Nov 2023
Pollen-based reconstructions of Holocene climate trends in the eastern Mediterranean region
Esmeralda Cruz-Silva
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Archaeology, Geography, and Environmental Science, Reading University, Whiteknights Campus, Reading, RG6 6AH, UK
Sandy P. Harrison
School of Archaeology, Geography, and Environmental Science, Reading University, Whiteknights Campus, Reading, RG6 6AH, UK
I. Colin Prentice
Georgina Mace Centre for the Living Planet, Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, SL5 7PY, UK
Elena Marinova
Laboratory for Archaeobotany, Baden-Württemberg State Office for Cultural Heritage Management, Fischersteig 9, 78343 Hemmenhofen-Gaienhofen, Germany
Patrick J. Bartlein
Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon 97403-1251, USA
Hans Renssen
Department of Natural Sciences and Environmental Health, University of South-Eastern Norway, Bø, Norway
Yurui Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
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Fang Li, Xiang Song, Sandy P. Harrison, Jennifer R. Marlon, Zhongda Lin, L. Ruby Leung, Jörg Schwinger, Virginie Marécal, Shiyu Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Xiao Dong, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, and Roland Séférian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8751–8771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, 2024
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This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 Earth system models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most models reproduce global totals, spatial patterns, seasonality, and regional historical changes well but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire response to climate variability. CMIP6 simulations address three critical issues of phase-5 models.
Peter U. Clark, Jeremy D. Shakun, Yair Rosenthal, Chenyu Zhu, Jonathan M. Gregory, Peter Köhler, Zhengyu Liu, Daniel P. Schrag, and Patrick J. Bartlein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3010, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3010, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
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We reconstruct changes in mean ocean temperature (ΔMOT) over the last 4.5 Myr. We find that the ratio of ΔMOT to changes in global mean sea surface temperature was around 0.5 before the Middle Pleistocene Transition but was 1 thereafter. We subtract our ΔMOT reconstruction from the global δ18O record to derive the δ18O of seawater. Finally, we develop a theoretical understanding of why the ratio of ΔMOT/ΔGMSST changed over the Plio-Pleistocene.
Kieran M. R. Hunt and Sandy P. Harrison
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2128, 2024
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In this study, we train machine learning models on tree rings, speleothems, and instrumental rainfall to estimate seasonal monsoon rainfall over India over the last 500 years. Our models highlight multidecadal droughts in the mid-seventeenth and nineteenth centuries, and we link these to historical famines. Using techniques from explainable AI, we show our models use known relationships between local hydroclimate and the monsoon circulation.
Yurui Zhang, Hans Renssen, Heikki Seppä, Zhen Li, and Xingrui Li
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-46, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
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The upper and lower atmosphere are interacted. The polar regions, with a high-speed and cyclonically rotating winds, provide a window that the upper air flow affects the mid-latitudes' weather which results in intra-seasonal climate variability. To explore their impacts on glacial-interglacial cycles, we analysed climate model results, and found that the stretched upper air flow increases glacial climate variability via more cold air outbreaks, highlighting their connections on multi-timescales.
Luke Fionn Sweeney, Sandy P. Harrison, and Marc Vander Linden
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1523, 2024
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Changes in tree cover across Europe during the Holocene are reconstructed from fossil pollen data using a model developed with modern observations of tree cover and modern pollen assemblages. There is a rapid increase in tree cover after the last glacial with maximum cover during the mid-Holocene and a decline thereafter; the timing of the maximum and the speed of the increase and subsequent decrease vary regionally likely reflecting differences in climate trajectories and human influence.
David Sandoval, Iain Colin Prentice, and Rodolfo L. B. Nóbrega
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4229–4309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4229-2024, 2024
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Numerous estimates of water and energy balances depend on empirical equations requiring site-specific calibration, posing risks of "the right answers for the wrong reasons". We introduce novel first-principles formulations to calculate key quantities without requiring local calibration, matching predictions from complex land surface models.
Nikita Kaushal, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Micah Wilhelm, Khalil Azennoud, Janica C. Bühler, Kerstin Braun, Yassine Ait Brahim, Andy Baker, Yuval Burstyn, Laia Comas-Bru, Jens Fohlmeister, Yonaton Goldsmith, Sandy P. Harrison, István G. Hatvani, Kira Rehfeld, Magdalena Ritzau, Vanessa Skiba, Heather M. Stoll, József G. Szűcs, Péter Tanos, Pauline C. Treble, Vitor Azevedo, Jonathan L. Baker, Andrea Borsato, Sakonvan Chawchai, Andrea Columbu, Laura Endres, Jun Hu, Zoltán Kern, Alena Kimbrough, Koray Koç, Monika Markowska, Belen Martrat, Syed Masood Ahmad, Carole Nehme, Valdir Felipe Novello, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Jiaoyang Ruan, Natasha Sekhon, Nitesh Sinha, Carol V. Tadros, Benjamin H. Tiger, Sophie Warken, Annabel Wolf, Haiwei Zhang, and SISAL Working Group members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1933–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1933-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1933-2024, 2024
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Speleothems are a popular, multi-proxy climate archive that provide regional to global insights into past hydroclimate trends with precise chronologies. We present an update to the SISAL (Speleothem Isotopes
Synthesis and AnaLysis) database, SISALv3, which, for the first time, contains speleothem trace element records, in addition to an update to the stable isotope records available in previous versions of the database, cumulatively providing data from 365 globally distributed sites.
Synthesis and AnaLysis) database, SISALv3, which, for the first time, contains speleothem trace element records, in addition to an update to the stable isotope records available in previous versions of the database, cumulatively providing data from 365 globally distributed sites.
Katie R. Blackford, Matthew Kasoar, Chantelle Burton, Eleanor Burke, Iain Colin Prentice, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3063–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, 2024
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Peatlands are globally important stores of carbon which are being increasingly threatened by wildfires with knock-on effects on the climate system. Here we introduce a novel peat fire parameterization in the northern high latitudes to the INFERNO global fire model. Representing peat fires increases annual burnt area across the high latitudes, alongside improvements in how we capture year-to-year variation in burning and emissions.
Mengmeng Liu, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-12, 2024
Preprint under review for CP
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Dansgaard-Oeschger events were large and rapid warming events that occurred multiple times during the last ice age. We show that changes in the northern extratropics and the southern extratropics were anti-phased, with warming over most of the north and cooling in the south. The reconstructions do not provide evidence for a change in seasonality in temperature. However, they do indicate that warming was generally accompanied by wetter conditions and cooling by drier conditions.
Huiying Xu, Han Wang, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 20, 4511–4525, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4511-2023, 2023
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Leaf carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) are crucial elements in leaf construction and physiological processes. This study reconciled the roles of phylogeny, species identity, and climate in stoichiometric traits at individual and community levels. The variations in community-level leaf N and C : N ratio were captured by optimality-based models using climate data. Our results provide an approach to improve the representation of leaf stoichiometry in vegetation models to better couple N with C cycling.
Olivia Haas, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 20, 3981–3995, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, 2023
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We quantify the impact of CO2 and climate on global patterns of burnt area, fire size, and intensity under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions using three climate scenarios. Climate change alone did not produce the observed LGM reduction in burnt area, but low CO2 did through reducing vegetation productivity. Fire intensity was sensitive to CO2 but strongly affected by changes in atmospheric dryness. Low CO2 caused smaller fires; climate had the opposite effect except in the driest scenario.
Giulia Mengoli, Sandy P. Harrison, and I. Colin Prentice
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1261, 2023
Preprint archived
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Soil water availability affects plant carbon uptake by reducing leaf area and/or by closing stomata, which reduces its efficiency. We present a new formulation of how climatic dryness reduces both maximum carbon uptake and the soil-moisture threshold below which it declines further. This formulation illustrates how plants adapt their water conservation strategy to thrive in dry climates, and is step towards a better representation of soil-moisture effects in climate models.
Mengmeng Liu, Yicheng Shen, Penelope González-Sampériz, Graciela Gil-Romera, Cajo J. F. ter Braak, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 19, 803–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-803-2023, 2023
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We reconstructed the Holocene climates in the Iberian Peninsula using a large pollen data set and found that the west–east moisture gradient was much flatter than today. We also found that the winter was much colder, which can be expected from the low winter insolation during the Holocene. However, summer temperature did not follow the trend of summer insolation, instead, it was strongly correlated with moisture.
Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
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We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Frank Arthur, Didier M. Roche, Ralph Fyfe, Aurélien Quiquet, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past, 19, 87–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, 2023
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This paper simulates transcient Holocene climate in Europe by applying an interactive downscaling to the standard version of the iLOVECLIM model. The results show that downscaling presents a higher spatial variability in better agreement with proxy-based reconstructions as compared to the standard model, particularly in the Alps, the Scandes, and the Mediterranean. Our downscaling scheme is numerically cheap, which can perform kilometric multi-millennial simulations suitable for future studies.
Huan Li, Hans Renssen, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2303–2319, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, 2022
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In past warm periods, the Sahara region was covered by vegetation. In this paper we study transitions from this
greenstate to the desert state we find today. For this purpose, we have used a global climate model coupled to a vegetation model to perform transient simulations. We analyzed the model results to assess the effect of vegetation shifts on the abruptness of the transition. We find that the vegetation feedback was more efficient during the last interglacial than during the Holocene.
Jing M. Chen, Rong Wang, Yihong Liu, Liming He, Holly Croft, Xiangzhong Luo, Han Wang, Nicholas G. Smith, Trevor F. Keenan, I. Colin Prentice, Yongguang Zhang, Weimin Ju, and Ning Dong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4077–4093, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4077-2022, 2022
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Green leaves contain chlorophyll pigments that harvest light for photosynthesis and also emit chlorophyll fluorescence as a byproduct. Both chlorophyll pigments and fluorescence can be measured by Earth-orbiting satellite sensors. Here we demonstrate that leaf photosynthetic capacity can be reliably derived globally using these measurements. This new satellite-based information overcomes a bottleneck in global ecological research where such spatially explicit information is currently lacking.
Yicheng Shen, Luke Sweeney, Mengmeng Liu, Jose Antonio Lopez Saez, Sebastián Pérez-Díaz, Reyes Luelmo-Lautenschlaeger, Graciela Gil-Romera, Dana Hoefer, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Heike Schneider, I. Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 18, 1189–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1189-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1189-2022, 2022
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We present a method to reconstruct burnt area using a relationship between pollen and charcoal abundances and the calibration of charcoal abundance using modern observations of burnt area. We use this method to reconstruct changes in burnt area over the past 12 000 years from sites in Iberia. We show that regional changes in burnt area reflect known changes in climate, with a high burnt area during warming intervals and low burnt area when the climate was cooler and/or wetter than today.
Sandy P. Harrison, Roberto Villegas-Diaz, Esmeralda Cruz-Silva, Daniel Gallagher, David Kesner, Paul Lincoln, Yicheng Shen, Luke Sweeney, Daniele Colombaroli, Adam Ali, Chéïma Barhoumi, Yves Bergeron, Tatiana Blyakharchuk, Přemysl Bobek, Richard Bradshaw, Jennifer L. Clear, Sambor Czerwiński, Anne-Laure Daniau, John Dodson, Kevin J. Edwards, Mary E. Edwards, Angelica Feurdean, David Foster, Konrad Gajewski, Mariusz Gałka, Michelle Garneau, Thomas Giesecke, Graciela Gil Romera, Martin P. Girardin, Dana Hoefer, Kangyou Huang, Jun Inoue, Eva Jamrichová, Nauris Jasiunas, Wenying Jiang, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Monika Karpińska-Kołaczek, Piotr Kołaczek, Niina Kuosmanen, Mariusz Lamentowicz, Martin Lavoie, Fang Li, Jianyong Li, Olga Lisitsyna, José Antonio López-Sáez, Reyes Luelmo-Lautenschlaeger, Gabriel Magnan, Eniko Katalin Magyari, Alekss Maksims, Katarzyna Marcisz, Elena Marinova, Jenn Marlon, Scott Mensing, Joanna Miroslaw-Grabowska, Wyatt Oswald, Sebastián Pérez-Díaz, Ramón Pérez-Obiol, Sanna Piilo, Anneli Poska, Xiaoguang Qin, Cécile C. Remy, Pierre J. H. Richard, Sakari Salonen, Naoko Sasaki, Hieke Schneider, William Shotyk, Migle Stancikaite, Dace Šteinberga, Normunds Stivrins, Hikaru Takahara, Zhihai Tan, Liva Trasune, Charles E. Umbanhowar, Minna Väliranta, Jüri Vassiljev, Xiayun Xiao, Qinghai Xu, Xin Xu, Edyta Zawisza, Yan Zhao, Zheng Zhou, and Jordan Paillard
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1109–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1109-2022, 2022
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We provide a new global data set of charcoal preserved in sediments that can be used to examine how fire regimes have changed during past millennia and to investigate what caused these changes. The individual records have been standardised, and new age models have been constructed to allow better comparison across sites. The data set contains 1681 records from 1477 sites worldwide.
Alexander Kuhn-Régnier, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Peer Nowack, Matthias Forkel, I. Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 18, 3861–3879, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3861-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3861-2021, 2021
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Along with current climate, vegetation, and human influences, long-term accumulation of biomass affects fires. Here, we find that including the influence of antecedent vegetation and moisture improves our ability to predict global burnt area. Additionally, the length of the preceding period which needs to be considered for accurate predictions varies across regions.
Sascha Scherer, Benjamin Höpfer, Katleen Deckers, Elske Fischer, Markus Fuchs, Ellen Kandeler, Jutta Lechterbeck, Eva Lehndorff, Johanna Lomax, Sven Marhan, Elena Marinova, Julia Meister, Christian Poll, Humay Rahimova, Manfred Rösch, Kristen Wroth, Julia Zastrow, Thomas Knopf, Thomas Scholten, and Peter Kühn
SOIL, 7, 269–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-269-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-269-2021, 2021
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This paper aims to reconstruct Middle Bronze Age (MBA) land use practices in the northwestern Alpine foreland (SW Germany, Hegau). We used a multi-proxy approach including biogeochemical proxies from colluvial deposits in the surroundings of a MBA settlement, on-site archaeobotanical and zooarchaeological data and off-site pollen data. From our data we infer land use practices such as plowing, cereal growth, forest farming and use of fire that marked the beginning of major colluvial deposition.
Sarah E. Parker, Sandy P. Harrison, Laia Comas-Bru, Nikita Kaushal, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 1119–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, 2021
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Regional trends in the oxygen isotope (δ18O) composition of stalagmites reflect several climate processes. We compare stalagmite δ18O records from monsoon regions and model simulations to identify the causes of δ18O variability over the last 12 000 years, and between glacial and interglacial states. Precipitation changes explain the glacial–interglacial δ18O changes in all monsoon regions; Holocene trends are due to a combination of precipitation, atmospheric circulation and temperature changes.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Peter Aartsma, Johan Asplund, Arvid Odland, Stefanie Reinhardt, and Hans Renssen
Biogeosciences, 18, 1577–1599, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1577-2021, 2021
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In the literature, it is generally assumed that alpine lichen heaths keep their direct environment cool due to their relatively high albedo. However, we reveal that the soil temperature and soil heat flux are higher below lichens than below shrubs during the growing season, despite a lower net radiation for lichens. We also show that the differences in microclimatic conditions between these two vegetation types are more pronounced during warm and sunny days than during cold and cloudy days.
Laia Comas-Bru, Kira Rehfeld, Carla Roesch, Sahar Amirnezhad-Mozhdehi, Sandy P. Harrison, Kamolphat Atsawawaranunt, Syed Masood Ahmad, Yassine Ait Brahim, Andy Baker, Matthew Bosomworth, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Yuval Burstyn, Andrea Columbu, Michael Deininger, Attila Demény, Bronwyn Dixon, Jens Fohlmeister, István Gábor Hatvani, Jun Hu, Nikita Kaushal, Zoltán Kern, Inga Labuhn, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Andrew Lorrey, Belen Martrat, Valdir Felipe Novello, Jessica Oster, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Denis Scholz, Nick Scroxton, Nitesh Sinha, Brittany Marie Ward, Sophie Warken, Haiwei Zhang, and SISAL Working Group members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2579–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2579-2020, 2020
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This paper presents an updated version of the SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and Analysis) database. This new version contains isotopic data from 691 speleothem records from 294 cave sites and new age–depth models, including their uncertainties, for 512 speleothems.
Basil A. S. Davis, Manuel Chevalier, Philipp Sommer, Vachel A. Carter, Walter Finsinger, Achille Mauri, Leanne N. Phelps, Marco Zanon, Roman Abegglen, Christine M. Åkesson, Francisca Alba-Sánchez, R. Scott Anderson, Tatiana G. Antipina, Juliana R. Atanassova, Ruth Beer, Nina I. Belyanina, Tatiana A. Blyakharchuk, Olga K. Borisova, Elissaveta Bozilova, Galina Bukreeva, M. Jane Bunting, Eleonora Clò, Daniele Colombaroli, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Stéphanie Desprat, Federico Di Rita, Morteza Djamali, Kevin J. Edwards, Patricia L. Fall, Angelica Feurdean, William Fletcher, Assunta Florenzano, Giulia Furlanetto, Emna Gaceur, Arsenii T. Galimov, Mariusz Gałka, Iria García-Moreiras, Thomas Giesecke, Roxana Grindean, Maria A. Guido, Irina G. Gvozdeva, Ulrike Herzschuh, Kari L. Hjelle, Sergey Ivanov, Susanne Jahns, Vlasta Jankovska, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Monika Karpińska-Kołaczek, Ikuko Kitaba, Piotr Kołaczek, Elena G. Lapteva, Małgorzata Latałowa, Vincent Lebreton, Suzanne Leroy, Michelle Leydet, Darya A. Lopatina, José Antonio López-Sáez, André F. Lotter, Donatella Magri, Elena Marinova, Isabelle Matthias, Anastasia Mavridou, Anna Maria Mercuri, Jose Manuel Mesa-Fernández, Yuri A. Mikishin, Krystyna Milecka, Carlo Montanari, César Morales-Molino, Almut Mrotzek, Castor Muñoz Sobrino, Olga D. Naidina, Takeshi Nakagawa, Anne Birgitte Nielsen, Elena Y. Novenko, Sampson Panajiotidis, Nata K. Panova, Maria Papadopoulou, Heather S. Pardoe, Anna Pędziszewska, Tatiana I. Petrenko, María J. Ramos-Román, Cesare Ravazzi, Manfred Rösch, Natalia Ryabogina, Silvia Sabariego Ruiz, J. Sakari Salonen, Tatyana V. Sapelko, James E. Schofield, Heikki Seppä, Lyudmila Shumilovskikh, Normunds Stivrins, Philipp Stojakowits, Helena Svobodova Svitavska, Joanna Święta-Musznicka, Ioan Tantau, Willy Tinner, Kazimierz Tobolski, Spassimir Tonkov, Margarita Tsakiridou, Verushka Valsecchi, Oksana G. Zanina, and Marcelina Zimny
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2423–2445, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2423-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2423-2020, 2020
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The Eurasian Modern Pollen Database (EMPD) contains pollen counts and associated metadata for 8134 modern pollen samples from across the Eurasian region. The EMPD is part of, and complementary to, the European Pollen Database (EPD) which contains data on fossil pollen found in Late Quaternary sedimentary archives. The purpose of the EMPD is to provide calibration datasets and other data to support palaeoecological research on past climates and vegetation cover over the Quaternary period.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
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This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Stijn Hantson, Douglas I. Kelley, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sally Archibald, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Thomas Hickler, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, I. Colin Prentice, Tim Sheehan, Stephen Sitch, Lina Teckentrup, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, 2020
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Global fire–vegetation models are widely used, but there has been limited evaluation of how well they represent various aspects of fire regimes. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of simulations made by nine FireMIP models in order to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. While some FireMIP models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime, no model clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.
Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Benjamin D. Stocker, Sebastian Lienert, Jurek Müller, Hubertus Fischer, Jochen Schmitt, I. Colin Prentice, Bette Otto-Bliesner, and Zhengyu Liu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3511–3543, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, 2020
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Results of the first globally resolved simulations of terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (N) cycling and N2O emissions over the past 21 000 years are compared with reconstructed N2O emissions. Modelled and reconstructed emissions increased strongly during past abrupt warming events. This evidence appears consistent with a dynamic response of biological N fixation to increasing N demand by ecosystems, thereby reducing N limitation of plant productivity and supporting a land sink for atmospheric CO2.
Sean F. Cleator, Sandy P. Harrison, Nancy K. Nichols, I. Colin Prentice, and Ian Roulstone
Clim. Past, 16, 699–712, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-699-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-699-2020, 2020
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We present geographically explicit reconstructions of seasonal temperature and annual moisture variables at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21 000 years ago. The reconstructions use existing site-based estimates of climate, interpolated in space and time in a physically consistent way using climate model simulations. The reconstructions give a much better picture of the LGM climate and will provide a robust evaluation of how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate large climate changes.
Benjamin D. Stocker, Han Wang, Nicholas G. Smith, Sandy P. Harrison, Trevor F. Keenan, David Sandoval, Tyler Davis, and I. Colin Prentice
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1545–1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1545-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1545-2020, 2020
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Estimating terrestrial photosynthesis relies on satellite data of vegetation cover and models simulating the efficiency by which light absorbed by vegetation is used for CO2 assimilation. This paper presents the P-model, a light use efficiency model derived from a carbon–water optimality principle, and evaluates its predictions of ecosystem-level photosynthesis against globally distributed observations. The model is implemented and openly accessible as an R package (rpmodel).
Angelica Feurdean, Boris Vannière, Walter Finsinger, Dan Warren, Simon C. Connor, Matthew Forrest, Johan Liakka, Andrei Panait, Christian Werner, Maja Andrič, Premysl Bobek, Vachel A. Carter, Basil Davis, Andrei-Cosmin Diaconu, Elisabeth Dietze, Ingo Feeser, Gabriela Florescu, Mariusz Gałka, Thomas Giesecke, Susanne Jahns, Eva Jamrichová, Katarzyna Kajukało, Jed Kaplan, Monika Karpińska-Kołaczek, Piotr Kołaczek, Petr Kuneš, Dimitry Kupriyanov, Mariusz Lamentowicz, Carsten Lemmen, Enikö K. Magyari, Katarzyna Marcisz, Elena Marinova, Aidin Niamir, Elena Novenko, Milena Obremska, Anna Pędziszewska, Mirjam Pfeiffer, Anneli Poska, Manfred Rösch, Michal Słowiński, Miglė Stančikaitė, Marta Szal, Joanna Święta-Musznicka, Ioan Tanţău, Martin Theuerkauf, Spassimir Tonkov, Orsolya Valkó, Jüri Vassiljev, Siim Veski, Ildiko Vincze, Agnieszka Wacnik, Julian Wiethold, and Thomas Hickler
Biogeosciences, 17, 1213–1230, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1213-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1213-2020, 2020
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Our study covers the full Holocene (the past 11 500 years) climate variability and vegetation composition and provides a test on how vegetation and climate interact to determine fire hazard. An important implication of this test is that percentage of tree cover can be used as a predictor of the probability of fire occurrence. Biomass burned is highest at ~ 45 % tree cover in temperate forests and at ~ 60–65 % tree cover in needleleaf-dominated forests.
Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-José Gaillard, Benjamin D. Stocker, Marc Vander Linden, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Oliver Boles, Pascale Braconnot, Andria Dawson, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kastner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Erick Robinson, Nicki J. Whitehouse, Marco Madella, and Kathleen D. Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, 2020
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The Past Global Changes LandCover6k initiative will use archaeological records to refine scenarios of land use and land cover change through the Holocene to reduce the uncertainties about the impacts of human-induced changes before widespread industrialization. We describe how archaeological data are used to map land use change and how the maps can be evaluated using independent palaeoenvironmental data. We propose simulations to test land use and land cover change impacts on past climates.
Lina Teckentrup, Sandy P. Harrison, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Joe R. Melton, Matthew Forrest, Fang Li, Chao Yue, Almut Arneth, Thomas Hickler, Stephen Sitch, and Gitta Lasslop
Biogeosciences, 16, 3883–3910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, 2019
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This study compares simulated burned area of seven global vegetation models provided by the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) since 1900. We investigate the influence of five forcing factors: atmospheric CO2, population density, land–use change, lightning and climate.
We find that the anthropogenic factors lead to the largest spread between models. Trends due to climate are mostly not significant but climate strongly influences the inter-annual variability of burned area.
Patrick J. Bartlein and Sarah L. Shafer
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3889–3913, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3889-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3889-2019, 2019
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One of the consequences of changes in the shape of Earth's orbit over time (in addition to pacing glacial–interglacial variations) is changes in the length of months or seasons. The well-known
paleo calendar effectthat results can produce patterns in comparisons of present-day and paleoclimate model simulations that could be mistaken for real climate changes. We illustrate the source of those patterns and describe an approach and set of programs for routinely adjusting for the effect.
Laia Comas-Bru, Sandy P. Harrison, Martin Werner, Kira Rehfeld, Nick Scroxton, Cristina Veiga-Pires, and SISAL working group members
Clim. Past, 15, 1557–1579, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019, 2019
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We use an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled climate model to provide a protocol for using speleothem isotopic data for model evaluation, including screening the observations and the optimum period for the modern observational baseline. We also illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotopic values during any time period could be used for model evaluation.
Guangqi Li, Sandy P. Harrison, and I. Colin Prentice
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-63, 2019
Publication in BG not foreseen
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Current methods of removing age effect from tree-ring are influenced by sampling biases – older trees are more abundantly sampled for recent decades, when the strongest environmental change happens. New technique of extracting environment-driven signals from tree ring is specifically designed to overcome this bias, drawing on theoretical tree growth. It removes sampling-bias effectively and shows consistent relationships between growth and climates through time and across two conifer species.
Dongyang Wei, Penélope González-Sampériz, Graciela Gil-Romera, Sandy P. Harrison, and I. Colin Prentice
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-16, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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El Cañizar de Villarquemado provides a pollen record from semi-arid Spain since before the last interglacial. We use modern pollen–climate relationships to reconstruct changes in seasonal temperature and moisture, accounting for CO2 effects on plants, and show coherent climate changes on glacial–interglacial and orbital timescales. The low glacial CO2 means moisture changes are less extreme than suggested by the vegetation shifts, and driven by evapotranspiration rather than rainfall changes.
Matthias Forkel, Niels Andela, Sandy P. Harrison, Gitta Lasslop, Margreet van Marle, Emilio Chuvieco, Wouter Dorigo, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Fang Li, Joe Melton, Stephen Sitch, Chao Yue, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 16, 57–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, 2019
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Weather, humans, and vegetation control the occurrence of fires. In this study we find that global fire–vegetation models underestimate the strong increase of burned area with higher previous-season plant productivity in comparison to satellite-derived relationships.
Kamolphat Atsawawaranunt, Laia Comas-Bru, Sahar Amirnezhad Mozhdehi, Michael Deininger, Sandy P. Harrison, Andy Baker, Meighan Boyd, Nikita Kaushal, Syed Masood Ahmad, Yassine Ait Brahim, Monica Arienzo, Petra Bajo, Kerstin Braun, Yuval Burstyn, Sakonvan Chawchai, Wuhui Duan, István Gábor Hatvani, Jun Hu, Zoltán Kern, Inga Labuhn, Matthew Lachniet, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Andrew Lorrey, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Robyn Pickering, Nick Scroxton, and SISAL Working Group Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1687–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1687-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1687-2018, 2018
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This paper is an overview of the contents of the SISAL database and its structure. The database contains oxygen and carbon isotope measurements from 371 individual speleothem records and 10 composite records from 174 cave systems from around the world. The SISAL database is created by a collective effort of the members of the Past Global Changes SISAL working group, which aims to provide a comprehensive compilation of speleothem isotope records for climate reconstruction and model evaluation.
Henrique Fürstenau Togashi, Iain Colin Prentice, Owen K. Atkin, Craig Macfarlane, Suzanne M. Prober, Keith J. Bloomfield, and Bradley John Evans
Biogeosciences, 15, 3461–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3461-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3461-2018, 2018
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Ecosystem models commonly assume that photosynthetic traits, such as carboxylation capacity measured at a standard temperature, are constant in time and therefore do not acclimate. Optimality hypotheses suggest this assumption may be incorrect. We investigated acclimation by carrying out measurements on woody species during distinct seasons in Western Australia. Our study shows evidence that carboxylation capacity should acclimate so that it increases somewhat with growth temperature.
Sandy P. Harrison, Patrick J. Bartlein, Victor Brovkin, Sander Houweling, Silvia Kloster, and I. Colin Prentice
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 663–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, 2018
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Temperature affects fire occurrence and severity. Warming will increase fire-related carbon emissions and thus atmospheric CO2. The size of this feedback is not known. We use charcoal records to estimate pre-industrial fire emissions and a simple land–biosphere model to quantify the feedback. We infer a feedback strength of 5.6 3.2 ppm CO2 per degree of warming and a gain of 0.09 ± 0.05 for a climate sensitivity of 2.8 K. Thus, fire feedback is a large part of the climate–carbon-cycle feedback.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
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The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
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The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Jennifer R. Marlon, Neil Pederson, Connor Nolan, Simon Goring, Bryan Shuman, Ann Robertson, Robert Booth, Patrick J. Bartlein, Melissa A. Berke, Michael Clifford, Edward Cook, Ann Dieffenbacher-Krall, Michael C. Dietze, Amy Hessl, J. Bradford Hubeny, Stephen T. Jackson, Jeremiah Marsicek, Jason McLachlan, Cary J. Mock, David J. P. Moore, Jonathan Nichols, Dorothy Peteet, Kevin Schaefer, Valerie Trouet, Charles Umbanhowar, John W. Williams, and Zicheng Yu
Clim. Past, 13, 1355–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, 2017
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To improve our understanding of paleoclimate in the northeastern (NE) US, we compiled data from pollen, tree rings, lake levels, testate amoeba from bogs, and other proxies from the last 3000 years. The paleoclimate synthesis supports long-term cooling until the 1800s and reveals an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions around 550–750 CE. Evidence suggests the region is now becoming warmer and wetter, but more calibrated data are needed, especially to capture multidecadal variability.
María Fernanda Sánchez Goñi, Stéphanie Desprat, Anne-Laure Daniau, Frank C. Bassinot, Josué M. Polanco-Martínez, Sandy P. Harrison, Judy R. M. Allen, R. Scott Anderson, Hermann Behling, Raymonde Bonnefille, Francesc Burjachs, José S. Carrión, Rachid Cheddadi, James S. Clark, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Colin. J. Courtney Mustaphi, Georg H. Debusk, Lydie M. Dupont, Jemma M. Finch, William J. Fletcher, Marco Giardini, Catalina González, William D. Gosling, Laurie D. Grigg, Eric C. Grimm, Ryoma Hayashi, Karin Helmens, Linda E. Heusser, Trevor Hill, Geoffrey Hope, Brian Huntley, Yaeko Igarashi, Tomohisa Irino, Bonnie Jacobs, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Sayuri Kawai, A. Peter Kershaw, Fujio Kumon, Ian T. Lawson, Marie-Pierre Ledru, Anne-Marie Lézine, Ping Mei Liew, Donatella Magri, Robert Marchant, Vasiliki Margari, Francis E. Mayle, G. Merna McKenzie, Patrick Moss, Stefanie Müller, Ulrich C. Müller, Filipa Naughton, Rewi M. Newnham, Tadamichi Oba, Ramón Pérez-Obiol, Roberta Pini, Cesare Ravazzi, Katy H. Roucoux, Stephen M. Rucina, Louis Scott, Hikaru Takahara, Polichronis C. Tzedakis, Dunia H. Urrego, Bas van Geel, B. Guido Valencia, Marcus J. Vandergoes, Annie Vincens, Cathy L. Whitlock, Debra A. Willard, and Masanobu Yamamoto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 679–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-679-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-679-2017, 2017
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The ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73–15 ka) plotted against a common chronology; 32 also provide charcoal records. The database allows for the reconstruction of the regional expression, vegetation and fire of past abrupt climate changes that are comparable to those expected in the 21st century. This work is a major contribution to understanding the processes behind rapid climate change.
Daniel S. Goll, Alexander J. Winkler, Thomas Raddatz, Ning Dong, Ian Colin Prentice, Philippe Ciais, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2009–2030, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, 2017
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The response of soil organic carbon decomposition to warming and the interactions between nitrogen and carbon cycling affect the feedbacks between the land carbon cycle and the climate. In the model JSBACH carbon–nitrogen interactions have only a small effect on the feedbacks, whereas modifications of soil organic carbon decomposition have a large effect. The carbon cycle in the improved model is more resilient to climatic changes than in previous version of the model.
Tyler W. Davis, I. Colin Prentice, Benjamin D. Stocker, Rebecca T. Thomas, Rhys J. Whitley, Han Wang, Bradley J. Evans, Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Martin T. Sykes, and Wolfgang Cramer
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 689–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-689-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-689-2017, 2017
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This research presents a comprehensive description for calculating necessary, but sparsely observed, factors related to Earth's surface energy and water budgets relevant in, but not limited to, the study of ecosystems. We present the equations, including their derivations and assumptions, as well as example indicators relevant to plant-available moisture. The robustness of these relatively simple equations provides a tool to be used across broad fields of scientific research.
Ning Dong, Iain Colin Prentice, Bradley J. Evans, Stefan Caddy-Retalic, Andrew J. Lowe, and Ian J. Wright
Biogeosciences, 14, 481–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-481-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-481-2017, 2017
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The nitrogen content of leaves is a key quantity for understanding ecosystem function. We analysed variations in nitrogen per unit leaf area among species at sites along a transect across Australia including many climates and ecosystem types. The data could be explained by the idea that leaf nitrogen comprises two parts, one proportional to leaf mass, the other (metabolic) part proportional to light intensity and declining with CO2 drawdown and temperature, as optimal allocation theory predicts.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Corinne Le Quéré, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Róisín Moriarty, Séverine Alvain, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Sophie Chollet, Clare Enright, Daniel J. Franklin, Richard J. Geider, Sandy P. Harrison, Andrew G. Hirst, Stuart Larsen, Louis Legendre, Trevor Platt, I. Colin Prentice, Richard B. Rivkin, Sévrine Sailley, Shubha Sathyendranath, Nick Stephens, Meike Vogt, and Sergio M. Vallina
Biogeosciences, 13, 4111–4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, 2016
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We present a global biogeochemical model which incorporates ecosystem dynamics based on the representation of ten plankton functional types, and use the model to assess the relative roles of iron vs. grazing in determining phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean. Our results suggest that observed low phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean during summer is primarily explained by the dynamics of the Southern Ocean zooplankton community, despite iron limitation of phytoplankton growth.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
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Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
Jennifer R. Marlon, Ryan Kelly, Anne-Laure Daniau, Boris Vannière, Mitchell J. Power, Patrick Bartlein, Philip Higuera, Olivier Blarquez, Simon Brewer, Tim Brücher, Angelica Feurdean, Graciela Gil Romera, Virginia Iglesias, S. Yoshi Maezumi, Brian Magi, Colin J. Courtney Mustaphi, and Tonishtan Zhihai
Biogeosciences, 13, 3225–3244, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3225-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3225-2016, 2016
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We reconstruct spatiotemporal variations in biomass burning since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using the Global Charcoal Database version 3 (including 736 records) and a method to grid the data. LGM to late Holocene burning broadly tracks global and regional climate changes over that interval. Human activities increase fire in the 1800s and then reduce it for most of the 20th century. Burning is now rapidly increasing, particularly in western North America and southeastern Australia.
A. V. Gallego-Sala, D. J. Charman, S. P. Harrison, G. Li, and I. C. Prentice
Clim. Past, 12, 129–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-129-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-129-2016, 2016
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It has become a well-established paradigm that blanket bog landscapes in the British Isles are a result of forest clearance by early human populations. We provide a novel test of this hypothesis using results from bioclimatic modelling driven by cimate reconstructions compared with a database of peat initiation dates. Both results show similar patterns of peat initiation over time and space. This suggests that climate was the main driver of blanket bog inception and not human disturbance.
B. A. A. Hoogakker, R. S. Smith, J. S. Singarayer, R. Marchant, I. C. Prentice, J. R. M. Allen, R. S. Anderson, S. A. Bhagwat, H. Behling, O. Borisova, M. Bush, A. Correa-Metrio, A. de Vernal, J. M. Finch, B. Fréchette, S. Lozano-Garcia, W. D. Gosling, W. Granoszewski, E. C. Grimm, E. Grüger, J. Hanselman, S. P. Harrison, T. R. Hill, B. Huntley, G. Jiménez-Moreno, P. Kershaw, M.-P. Ledru, D. Magri, M. McKenzie, U. Müller, T. Nakagawa, E. Novenko, D. Penny, L. Sadori, L. Scott, J. Stevenson, P. J. Valdes, M. Vandergoes, A. Velichko, C. Whitlock, and C. Tzedakis
Clim. Past, 12, 51–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-51-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-51-2016, 2016
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In this paper we use two climate models to test how Earth’s vegetation responded to changes in climate over the last 120 000 years, looking at warm interglacial climates like today, cold ice-age glacial climates, and intermediate climates. The models agree well with observations from pollen, showing smaller forested areas and larger desert areas during cold periods. Forests store most terrestrial carbon; the terrestrial carbon lost during cold climates was most likely relocated to the oceans.
M. G. De Kauwe, S.-X. Zhou, B. E. Medlyn, A. J. Pitman, Y.-P. Wang, R. A. Duursma, and I. C. Prentice
Biogeosciences, 12, 7503–7518, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7503-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7503-2015, 2015
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Future climate change has the potential to increase drought in many regions of the globe. Recent data syntheses show that drought sensitivity varies considerably among plants from different climate zones, but state-of-the-art models currently assume the same drought sensitivity for all vegetation. Our results indicate that models will over-estimate drought impacts in drier climates unless different sensitivity of vegetation to drought is taken into account.
P. J. Bartlein, M. E. Edwards, S. W. Hostetler, S. L. Shafer, P. M. Anderson, L. B. Brubaker, and A. V. Lozhkin
Clim. Past, 11, 1197–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, 2015
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The ongoing warming of the Arctic is producing changes in vegetation and hydrology that, coupled with rising sea level, could mediate global changes. We explored this possibility using regional climate model simulations of a past interval of warming in Beringia and found that the regional-scale changes do strongly mediate the responses to global changes, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in climate change.
T.-T. Meng, H. Wang, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, J. Ni, and G. Wang
Biogeosciences, 12, 5339–5352, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5339-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5339-2015, 2015
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By analysing the quantitative leaf-traits along extensive temperature and moisture gradients with generalized linear models, we found that metabolism-related traits are universally acclimated to environmental conditions, rather than being fixed within plant functional types. The results strongly support a move towards Dynamic Global Vegetation Models in which continuous, adaptive trait variation provides the fundamental mechanism for changes in ecosystem properties along environmental gradients.
I. C. Prentice, X. Liang, B. E. Medlyn, and Y.-P. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5987–6005, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5987-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5987-2015, 2015
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Land surface models (LSMs) describe how carbon and water fluxes react to environmental change. They are key component of climate models, yet they differ enormously. Many perform poorly, despite having many parameters. We outline a development strategy emphasizing robustness, reliability and realism, none of which is guaranteed by complexity alone. We propose multiple constraints, benchmarking and data assimilation, and representing unresolved processes stochastically, as tools in this endeavour.
G. Li, S. P. Harrison, and I. C. Prentice
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-4769-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-4769-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
G. Li, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, and D. Falster
Biogeosciences, 11, 6711–6724, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6711-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6711-2014, 2014
M. Martin Calvo, I. C. Prentice, and S. P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 11, 6017–6027, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6017-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6017-2014, 2014
H. Wang, I. C. Prentice, and T. W. Davis
Biogeosciences, 11, 5987–6001, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5987-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5987-2014, 2014
D. I. Kelley, S. P. Harrison, and I. C. Prentice
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2411–2433, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2411-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2411-2014, 2014
I. Bistinas, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, and J. M. C. Pereira
Biogeosciences, 11, 5087–5101, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5087-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5087-2014, 2014
P. N. Foster, I. C. Prentice, C. Morfopoulos, M. Siddall, and M. van Weele
Biogeosciences, 11, 3437–3451, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3437-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3437-2014, 2014
G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 10, 221–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014
A. M. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. D. Friend, F. Aires, A. T. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. R. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P. O. Hopcroft, C. D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. G. Levine, I. C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vázquez Riveiros, E. W. Wolff, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 10, 8305–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, 2013
A. M. Ukkola and I. C. Prentice
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4177–4187, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4177-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4177-2013, 2013
H. Wang, I. C. Prentice, and J. Ni
Biogeosciences, 10, 5817–5830, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5817-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5817-2013, 2013
D. I. Kelley, I. C. Prentice, S. P. Harrison, H. Wang, M. Simard, J. B. Fisher, and K. O. Willis
Biogeosciences, 10, 3313–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3313-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3313-2013, 2013
F. J. Bragg, I. C. Prentice, S. P. Harrison, G. Eglinton, P. N. Foster, F. Rommerskirchen, and J. Rullkötter
Biogeosciences, 10, 2001–2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2001-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2001-2013, 2013
D. J. Charman, D. W. Beilman, M. Blaauw, R. K. Booth, S. Brewer, F. M. Chambers, J. A. Christen, A. Gallego-Sala, S. P. Harrison, P. D. M. Hughes, S. T. Jackson, A. Korhola, D. Mauquoy, F. J. G. Mitchell, I. C. Prentice, M. van der Linden, F. De Vleeschouwer, Z. C. Yu, J. Alm, I. E. Bauer, Y. M. C. Corish, M. Garneau, V. Hohl, Y. Huang, E. Karofeld, G. Le Roux, J. Loisel, R. Moschen, J. E. Nichols, T. M. Nieminen, G. M. MacDonald, N. R. Phadtare, N. Rausch, Ü. Sillasoo, G. T. Swindles, E.-S. Tuittila, L. Ukonmaanaho, M. Väliranta, S. van Bellen, B. van Geel, D. H. Vitt, and Y. Zhao
Biogeosciences, 10, 929–944, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-929-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-929-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Holocene
A continental reconstruction of hydroclimatic variability in South America during the past 2000 years
A Holocene history of climate, fire, landscape evolution, and human activity in northeastern Iceland
A global compilation of diatom silica oxygen isotope records from lake sediment – trends and implications for climate reconstruction
BrGDGT-based seasonal paleotemperature reconstruction for the last 15 000 years from a shallow lake on the eastern Tibetan Plateau
Reconstructing 15 000 years of southern France temperatures from coupled pollen and molecular (branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether) markers (Canroute, Massif Central)
Spatiotemporal Intertropical Convergence Zone dynamics during the last 3 millennia in northeastern Brazil and related impacts in modern human history
Holocene climates of the Iberian Peninsula: pollen-based reconstructions of changes in the west–east gradient of temperature and moisture
Holocene climate and oceanography of the coastal Western United States and California Current System
Reconstructing Holocene temperatures in time and space using paleoclimate data assimilation
Long-term trends in diatom diversity and palaeoproductivity: a 16 000-year multidecadal record from Lake Baikal, southern Siberia
A 406-year non-growing-season precipitation reconstruction in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Climatic variations during the Holocene inferred from radiocarbon and stable carbon isotopes in speleothems from a high-alpine cave
Winter–spring warming in the North Atlantic during the last 2000 years: evidence from southwest Iceland
Climate reconstructions based on GDGT and pollen surface datasets from Mongolia and Baikal area: calibrations and applicability to extremely cold–dry environments over the Late Holocene
Sampling density and date along with species selection influence spatial representation of tree-ring reconstructions
Changes in high-intensity precipitation on the northern Apennines (Italy) as revealed by multidisciplinary data over the last 9000 years
Neoglacial trends in diatom dynamics from a small alpine lake in the Qinling mountains of central China
Centennial- to millennial-scale monsoon changes since the last deglaciation linked to solar activities and North Atlantic cooling
Algal lipids reveal unprecedented warming rates in alpine areas of SW Europe during the industrial period
Reconstructing seasonality through stable-isotope and trace-element analyses of the Proserpine stalagmite, Han-sur-Lesse cave, Belgium: indications for climate-driven changes during the last 400 years
Two millennia of Main region (southern Germany) hydroclimate variability
Combining a pollen and macrofossil synthesis with climate simulations for spatial reconstructions of European climate using Bayesian filtering
Lignin oxidation products as a potential proxy for vegetation and environmental changes in speleothems and cave drip water – a first record from the Herbstlabyrinth, central Germany
How dry was the Younger Dryas? Evidence from a coupled δ2H–δ18O biomarker paleohygrometer applied to the Gemündener Maar sediments, Western Eifel, Germany
Siberian tree-ring and stable isotope proxies as indicators of temperature and moisture changes after major stratospheric volcanic eruptions
The 4.2 ka BP Event in the Mediterranean region: an overview
Technical note: Optimizing the utility of combined GPR, OSL, and Lidar (GOaL) to extract paleoenvironmental records and decipher shoreline evolution
The onset of neoglaciation in Iceland and the 4.2 ka event
Hydroclimatic variations in southeastern China during the 4.2 ka event reflected by stalagmite records
Fire, vegetation, and Holocene climate in a southeastern Tibetan lake: a multi-biomarker reconstruction from Paru Co
Climate impact on the development of Pre-Classic Maya civilisation
Synchronizing 10Be in two varved lake sediment records to IntCal13 14C during three grand solar minima
Technical note: Open-paleo-data implementation pilot – the PAGES 2k special issue
A chironomid-based record of temperature variability during the past 4000 years in northern China and its possible societal implications
Insights into Atlantic multidecadal variability using the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework
Three distinct Holocene intervals of stalagmite deposition and nondeposition revealed in NW Madagascar, and their paleoclimate implications
Examining bias in pollen-based quantitative climate reconstructions induced by human impact on vegetation in China
A dual-biomarker approach for quantification of changes in relative humidity from sedimentary lipid D∕H ratios
Pseudo-proxy tests of the analogue method to reconstruct spatially resolved global temperature during the Common Era
Development and evaluation of a system of proxy data assimilation for paleoclimate reconstruction
A chironomid-based mean July temperature inference model from the south-east margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China
Assessing performance and seasonal bias of pollen-based climate reconstructions in a perfect model world
Quantitative reconstruction of summer precipitation using a mid-Holocene δ13C common millet record from Guanzhong Basin, northern China
North Atlantic Oscillation controls on oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients in winter precipitation across Europe; implications for palaeoclimate studies
A 368-year maximum temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring data in the northwestern Sichuan Plateau (NWSP), China
Inferring late-Holocene climate in the Ecuadorian Andes using a chironomid-based temperature inference model
A high-altitude peatland record of environmental changes in the NW Argentine Andes (24 ° S) over the last 2100 years
Technical note: The Linked Paleo Data framework – a common tongue for paleoclimatology
A Bayesian hierarchical model for reconstructing relative sea level: from raw data to rates of change
Inferring climate variability from nonlinear proxies: application to palaeo-ENSO studies
Mathurin A. Choblet, Janica C. Bühler, Valdir F. Novello, Nathan J. Steiger, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 20, 2117–2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2117-2024, 2024
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Past climate reconstructions are essential for understanding climate mechanisms and drivers. Our focus is on the South American continent over the past 2000 years. We offer a new reconstruction that particularly utilizes data from speleothems, previously absent from continent-wide reconstructions. We use paleoclimate data assimilation, a reconstruction method that combines information from climate archives and climate simulations.
Nicolò Ardenghi, David J. Harning, Jonathan H. Raberg, Brooke R. Holman, Thorvaldur Thordarson, Áslaug Geirsdóttir, Gifford H. Miller, and Julio Sepúlveda
Clim. Past, 20, 1087–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1087-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1087-2024, 2024
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Analysing a sediment record from Stóra Viðarvatn (NE Iceland), we reveal how natural factors and human activities influenced environmental changes (erosion, wildfires) over the last 11 000 years. We found increased fire activity around 3000 and 1500 years ago, predating human settlement, likely driven by natural factors like precipitation shifts. Declining summer temperatures increased erosion vulnerability, exacerbated by farming and animal husbandry, which in turn may have reduced wildfires.
Philip Meister, Anne Alexandre, Hannah Bailey, Philip Barker, Boris K. Biskaborn, Ellie Broadman, Rosine Cartier, Bernhard Chapligin, Martine Couapel, Jonathan R. Dean, Bernhard Diekmann, Poppy Harding, Andrew C. G. Henderson, Armand Hernandez, Ulrike Herzschuh, Svetlana S. Kostrova, Jack Lacey, Melanie J. Leng, Andreas Lücke, Anson W. Mackay, Eniko Katalin Magyari, Biljana Narancic, Cécile Porchier, Gunhild Rosqvist, Aldo Shemesh, Corinne Sonzogni, George E. A. Swann, Florence Sylvestre, and Hanno Meyer
Clim. Past, 20, 363–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-363-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-363-2024, 2024
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This paper presents the first comprehensive compilation of diatom oxygen isotope records in lake sediments (δ18OBSi), supported by lake basin parameters. We infer the spatial and temporal coverage of δ18OBSi records and discuss common hemispheric trends on centennial and millennial timescales. Key results are common patterns for hydrologically open lakes in Northern Hemisphere extratropical regions during the Holocene corresponding to known climatic epochs, i.e. the Holocene Thermal Maximum.
Xiaohuan Hou, Nannan Wang, Zhe Sun, Kan Yuan, Xianyong Cao, and Juzhi Hou
Clim. Past, 20, 335–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-335-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-335-2024, 2024
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We present an ice-free season temperature based on brGDGTs over last 15 kyr on the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP). The result shows that Holocene Thermal Maximum occurred during 8–3.5 ka, which lags behind pollen-based temperature recorded in same core, indicating a significant seasonal bias between different proxies. We also investigated previously published brGDGT-based temperatures on the TP to determine the pattern of Holocene temperature changes and possible reasons for the diverse records.
Léa d'Oliveira, Lucas Dugerdil, Guillemette Ménot, Allowen Evin, Serge D. Muller, Salomé Ansanay-Alex, Julien Azuara, Colline Bonnet, Laurent Bremond, Mehmet Shah, and Odile Peyron
Clim. Past, 19, 2127–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2127-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2127-2023, 2023
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In southern Europe, Holocene climate variability is characterized by a strong heterogeneity whose patterns are still poorly understood. Here, a multi-proxy approach (pollen and biomarkers) is applied to the Canroute sequence to reconstruct the climatic variation over the last 15 000 years in southern Massif Central, France. Results reveal that reconstructions of regional climate trends notably differ depending on proxies and sites, notably concerning the presence of a Holocene thermal maximum.
Giselle Utida, Francisco W. Cruz, Mathias Vuille, Angela Ampuero, Valdir F. Novello, Jelena Maksic, Gilvan Sampaio, Hai Cheng, Haiwei Zhang, Fabio Ramos Dias de Andrade, and R. Lawrence Edwards
Clim. Past, 19, 1975–1992, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1975-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1975-2023, 2023
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We reconstruct the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) behavior during the past 3000 years over northeastern Brazil based on oxygen stable isotopes of stalagmites. Paleoclimate changes were mainly forced by the tropical South Atlantic and tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variability. We describe an ITCZ zonal behavior active around 1100 CE and the period from 1500 to 1750 CE. The dataset also records historical droughts that affected modern human population in this area of Brazil.
Mengmeng Liu, Yicheng Shen, Penelope González-Sampériz, Graciela Gil-Romera, Cajo J. F. ter Braak, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 19, 803–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-803-2023, 2023
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We reconstructed the Holocene climates in the Iberian Peninsula using a large pollen data set and found that the west–east moisture gradient was much flatter than today. We also found that the winter was much colder, which can be expected from the low winter insolation during the Holocene. However, summer temperature did not follow the trend of summer insolation, instead, it was strongly correlated with moisture.
Hannah M. Palmer, Veronica Padilla Vriesman, Caitlin M. Livsey, Carina R. Fish, and Tessa M. Hill
Clim. Past, 19, 199–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-199-2023, 2023
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To better understand and contextualize modern climate change, this systematic review synthesizes climate and oceanographic patterns in the Western United States and California Current System through the most recent 11.75 kyr. Through a literature review and coded analysis of past studies, we identify distinct environmental phases through time and linkages between marine and terrestrial systems. We explore climate change impacts on ecosystems and human–environment interactions.
Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Nathan Steiger, Sylvia Dee, Chris Hancock, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 18, 2599–2629, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, 2022
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To look at climate over the past 12 000 years, we reconstruct spatial temperature using natural climate archives and information from model simulations. Our results show mild global mean warmth around 6000 years ago, which differs somewhat from past reconstructions. Undiagnosed seasonal biases in the data could explain some of the observed temperature change, but this still would not explain the large difference between many reconstructions and climate models over this period.
Anson W. Mackay, Vivian A. Felde, David W. Morley, Natalia Piotrowska, Patrick Rioual, Alistair W. R. Seddon, and George E. A. Swann
Clim. Past, 18, 363–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-363-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-363-2022, 2022
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We investigated the diversity of algae called diatoms in Lake Baikal, the oldest and deepest lake in the world, because algae sit at the base of aquatic foodwebs and provide energy (in the form of primary production) for other organisms to use. Diatom diversity and primary production have been influenced by both long-term and abrupt climate change over the past 16 000 years. The shape of these responses appears to be time-period specific.
Maierdang Keyimu, Zongshan Li, Bojie Fu, Guohua Liu, Fanjiang Zeng, Weiliang Chen, Zexin Fan, Keyan Fang, Xiuchen Wu, and Xiaochun Wang
Clim. Past, 17, 2381–2392, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2381-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2381-2021, 2021
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We created a residual tree-ring width chronology and reconstructed non-growth-season precipitation (NGSP) over the period spanning 1600–2005 in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP), China. Reconstruction model verification as well as similar variations of NGSP reconstruction and Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstructions from the surrounding region indicate the reliability of the present reconstruction. Our reconstruction is representative of NGSP variability of a large region in the SETP.
Caroline Welte, Jens Fohlmeister, Melina Wertnik, Lukas Wacker, Bodo Hattendorf, Timothy I. Eglinton, and Christoph Spötl
Clim. Past, 17, 2165–2177, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2165-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2165-2021, 2021
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Stalagmites are valuable climate archives, but unlike other proxies the use of stable carbon isotopes (δ13C) is still difficult. A stalagmite from the Austrian Alps was analyzed using a new laser ablation method for fast radiocarbon (14C) analysis. This allowed 14C and δ13C to be combined, showing that besides soil and bedrock a third source is contributing during periods of warm, wet climate: old organic matter.
Nora Richter, James M. Russell, Johanna Garfinkel, and Yongsong Huang
Clim. Past, 17, 1363–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1363-2021, 2021
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We present a reconstruction of winter–spring temperatures developed using organic proxies preserved in well-dated lake sediments from southwest Iceland to assess seasonal temperature changes in the North Atlantic region over the last 2000 years. The gradual warming trend observed in our record is likely influenced by sea surface temperatures, which are sensitive to changes in ocean circulation and seasonal insolation, during the winter and spring season.
Lucas Dugerdil, Sébastien Joannin, Odile Peyron, Isabelle Jouffroy-Bapicot, Boris Vannière, Bazartseren Boldgiv, Julia Unkelbach, Hermann Behling, and Guillemette Ménot
Clim. Past, 17, 1199–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1199-2021, 2021
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Since the understanding of Holocene climate change appears to be a relevant issue for future climate change, the paleoclimate calibrations have to be improved. Here, surface samples from Mongolia and Siberia were analyzed to provide new calibrations for pollen and biomarker climate models. These calibrations appear to be more powerful than global calibrations, especially in an arid central Asian context. These calibrations will improve the understanding of monsoon Holocene oscillations.
Justin T. Maxwell, Grant L. Harley, Trevis J. Matheus, Brandon M. Strange, Kayla Van Aken, Tsun Fung Au, and Joshua C. Bregy
Clim. Past, 16, 1901–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1901-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1901-2020, 2020
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We found that increasing the density of chronologies in the tree-ring network resulted in estimated soil moisture conditions that better matched the spatial variability of the values that were instrumentally recorded for droughts and, to a lesser extent, pluvials. By sampling trees in 2010 compared to 1980, the sensitivity of tree rings to soil moisture decreased in the southern portion of our region, where severe drought conditions have been absent over recent decades.
Stefano Segadelli, Federico Grazzini, Veronica Rossi, Margherita Aguzzi, Silvia Marvelli, Marco Marchesini, Alessandro Chelli, Roberto Francese, Maria Teresa De Nardo, and Sandro Nanni
Clim. Past, 16, 1547–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1547-2020, 2020
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In an attempt to consolidate trends in the hydrological cycle induced by recent warming, we conducted a multidisciplinary study combining meteorological data, climate proxies from the literature, and original coring and pollen data acquired in an area that has been hit by record-breaking precipitation events. A detailed study of recent flash-flood deposits compared with fossil peat bog and lake sediments supports the expected increase in precipitation intensity during warm climatic phases.
Bo Cheng, Jennifer Adams, Jianhui Chen, Aifeng Zhou, Qing Zhang, and Anson W. Mackay
Clim. Past, 16, 543–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-543-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-543-2020, 2020
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The Qinling mountains in China are biodiversity rich. We studied one of the high-latitude lakes on Mount Taibai with a view to looking at how aquatic diversity responded to long-term changes in climate over the past 3500 years. We specifically looked at a group of single-celled algae called diatoms, as they are very sensitive to the environment. We found that these algae changed gradually over time, but they showed abrupt change during the period known as the Little Ice Age, about 400 years ago.
Xingxing Liu, Youbin Sun, Jef Vandenberghe, Peng Cheng, Xu Zhang, Evan J. Gowan, Gerrit Lohmann, and Zhisheng An
Clim. Past, 16, 315–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-315-2020, 2020
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The East Asian summer monsoon and winter monsoon are anticorrelated on a centennial timescale during 16–1 ka. The centennial monsoon variability is connected to changes of both solar activity and North Atlantic cooling events during the Early Holocene. Then, North Atlantic cooling became the major forcing of events during the Late Holocene. This work presents the great challenge and potential to understand the response of the monsoon system to global climate changes in the past and the future.
Antonio García-Alix, Jaime L. Toney, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Carmen Pérez-Martínez, Laura Jiménez, Marta Rodrigo-Gámiz, R. Scott Anderson, Jon Camuera, Francisco J. Jiménez-Espejo, Dhais Peña-Angulo, and María J. Ramos-Román
Clim. Past, 16, 245–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-245-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-245-2020, 2020
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In this paper we identify warming thresholds, rates, and forcing mechanisms from a novel alpine temperature record of the southern Iberian Peninsula during the Common Era in order to contextualize the modern warming and its potential impact on these vulnerable alpine ecosystems. To do so, we have developed and applied the first lacustrine temperature calibration in alpine lakes for algal compounds, called long-chain alkyl diols, which is a significant advance in biomarker paleothermometry.
Stef Vansteenberge, Niels J. de Winter, Matthias Sinnesael, Sophie Verheyden, Steven Goderis, Stijn J. M. Van Malderen, Frank Vanhaecke, and Philippe Claeys
Clim. Past, 16, 141–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-141-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-141-2020, 2020
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We measured the chemical composition (trace-element concentrations and stable-isotope ratios) of a Belgian speleothem that deposited annual layers. Our sub-annual resolution dataset allows us to investigate how the chemistry of this speleothem recorded changes in the environment and climate in northwestern Europe. We then use this information to reconstruct climate change during the 16th and 17th century on the seasonal scale and demonstrate that environmental change drives speleothem chemistry.
Alexander Land, Sabine Remmele, Jutta Hofmann, Daniel Reichle, Margaret Eppli, Christian Zang, Allan Buras, Sebastian Hein, and Reiner Zimmermann
Clim. Past, 15, 1677–1690, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1677-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1677-2019, 2019
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With the use of precipitation sensitive oak ring-width series from the Main River region (southern Germany) a 2000-year long hydroclimate reconstruction has been developed. The ring series are sensitive to the sum of rainfall from 26 February to 6 July. This region suffered from severe, long-lasting droughts in the past two millennia (e.g., AD 500/510s, 940s, 1170s, 1390s and 1160s). In the AD 550s, 1050s, 1310s and 1480s, multi-year periods with high rainfall hit the region.
Nils Weitzel, Andreas Hense, and Christian Ohlwein
Clim. Past, 15, 1275–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1275-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1275-2019, 2019
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A new method for probabilistic spatial reconstructions of past climate states is presented, which combines pollen data with a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations in a Bayesian framework. The approach is applied to reconstruct summer and winter temperature in Europe during the mid-Holocene. Our reconstructions account for multiple sources of uncertainty and are well suited for quantitative statistical analyses of the climate under different forcing conditions.
Inken Heidke, Denis Scholz, and Thorsten Hoffmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1025–1037, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1025-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1025-2019, 2019
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This is the first quantitative study of lignin biomarkers in stalagmites and cave drip water. Lignin is only produced by higher plants; therefore, its analysis can be used to reconstruct the vegetation of the past. We compared our lignin results with stable isotope and trace element records from the same samples and found correlations or similarities with P, Ba, U and Mg concentrations as well as δ13C values. These results can help to better interpret other vegetation proxies.
Johannes Hepp, Lorenz Wüthrich, Tobias Bromm, Marcel Bliedtner, Imke Kathrin Schäfer, Bruno Glaser, Kazimierz Rozanski, Frank Sirocko, Roland Zech, and Michael Zech
Clim. Past, 15, 713–733, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-713-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-713-2019, 2019
Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Marina V. Fonti, Matthias Saurer, Sébastien Guillet, Christophe Corona, Patrick Fonti, Vladimir S. Myglan, Alexander V. Kirdyanov, Oksana V. Naumova, Dmitriy V. Ovchinnikov, Alexander V. Shashkin, Irina P. Panyushkina, Ulf Büntgen, Malcolm K. Hughes, Eugene A. Vaganov, Rolf T. W. Siegwolf, and Markus Stoffel
Clim. Past, 15, 685–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-685-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-685-2019, 2019
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We present a unique dataset of multiple tree-ring and stable isotope parameters, representing temperature-sensitive Siberian ecotones, to assess climatic impacts after six large stratospheric volcanic eruptions at 535, 540, 1257, 1640, 1815, and 1991 CE. Besides the well-documented effects of temperature derived from tree-ring width and latewood density, stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in tree-ring cellulose provide information about moisture and sunshine duration changes after the events.
Monica Bini, Giovanni Zanchetta, Aurel Perşoiu, Rosine Cartier, Albert Català, Isabel Cacho, Jonathan R. Dean, Federico Di Rita, Russell N. Drysdale, Martin Finnè, Ilaria Isola, Bassem Jalali, Fabrizio Lirer, Donatella Magri, Alessia Masi, Leszek Marks, Anna Maria Mercuri, Odile Peyron, Laura Sadori, Marie-Alexandrine Sicre, Fabian Welc, Christoph Zielhofer, and Elodie Brisset
Clim. Past, 15, 555–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-555-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-555-2019, 2019
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The Mediterranean region has returned some of the clearest evidence of a climatically dry period occurring approximately 4200 years ago. We reviewed selected proxies to infer regional climate patterns between 4.3 and 3.8 ka. Temperature data suggest a cooling anomaly, even if this is not uniform, whereas winter was drier, along with dry summers. However, some exceptions to this prevail, where wetter condition seems to have persisted, suggesting regional heterogeneity.
Amy J. Dougherty, Jeong-Heon Choi, Chris S. M. Turney, and Anthony Dosseto
Clim. Past, 15, 389–404, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-389-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-389-2019, 2019
Áslaug Geirsdóttir, Gifford H. Miller, John T. Andrews, David J. Harning, Leif S. Anderson, Christopher Florian, Darren J. Larsen, and Thor Thordarson
Clim. Past, 15, 25–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-25-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-25-2019, 2019
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Compositing climate proxies in sediment from seven Iceland lakes documents abrupt summer cooling between 4.5 and 4.0 ka, statistically indistinguishable from 4.2 ka. Although the decline in summer insolation was an important factor, a combination of superposed changes in ocean circulation and explosive Icelandic volcanism were likely responsible for the abrupt perturbation recorded by our proxies. Lake and catchment proxies recovered to a colder equilibrium state following the perturbation.
Haiwei Zhang, Hai Cheng, Yanjun Cai, Christoph Spötl, Gayatri Kathayat, Ashish Sinha, R. Lawrence Edwards, and Liangcheng Tan
Clim. Past, 14, 1805–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1805-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1805-2018, 2018
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The collapses of several Neolithic cultures in China are considered to have been associated with abrupt climate change during the 4.2 ka BP event; however, the hydroclimate of this event in China is still poorly known. Based on stalagmite records from monsoonal China, we found that north China was dry but south China was wet during this event. We propose that the rain belt remained longer at its southern position, giving rise to a pronounced humidity gradient between north and south China.
Alice Callegaro, Dario Battistel, Natalie M. Kehrwald, Felipe Matsubara Pereira, Torben Kirchgeorg, Maria del Carmen Villoslada Hidalgo, Broxton W. Bird, and Carlo Barbante
Clim. Past, 14, 1543–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1543-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1543-2018, 2018
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Holocene fires and vegetation are reconstructed using different molecular markers with a single analytical method, applied for the first time to lake sediments from Tibet. The early Holocene shows oscillations between grasses and conifers, with smouldering fires represented by levoglucosan peaks, and high-temperature fires represented by PAHs. The lack of human FeSts excludes local human influence on fire and vegetation changes. Late Holocene displays an increase in local to regional combustion.
Kees Nooren, Wim Z. Hoek, Brian J. Dermody, Didier Galop, Sarah Metcalfe, Gerald Islebe, and Hans Middelkoop
Clim. Past, 14, 1253–1273, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1253-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1253-2018, 2018
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We present two new palaeoclimatic records for the central Maya lowlands, adding valuable new insights to the impact of climate change on the development of Maya civilisation. Lake Tuspan's diatom record is indicative of precipitation changes at a local scale, while a beach ridge elevation record from the world's largest late Holocene beach ridge plain provides a regional picture.
Markus Czymzik, Raimund Muscheler, Florian Adolphi, Florian Mekhaldi, Nadine Dräger, Florian Ott, Michał Słowinski, Mirosław Błaszkiewicz, Ala Aldahan, Göran Possnert, and Achim Brauer
Clim. Past, 14, 687–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-687-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-687-2018, 2018
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Our results provide a proof of concept for facilitating 10Be in varved lake sediments as a novel synchronization tool required for investigating leads and lags of proxy responses to climate variability. They also point to some limitations of 10Be in these archives mainly connected to in-lake sediment resuspension processes.
Darrell S. Kaufman and PAGES 2k special-issue editorial team
Clim. Past, 14, 593–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-593-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-593-2018, 2018
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We explain the procedure used to attain a high and consistent level of data stewardship across a special issue of the journal Climate of the Past. We discuss the challenges related to (1) determining which data are essential for public archival, (2) using data generated by others, and (3) understanding data citations. We anticipate that open-data sharing in paleo sciences will accelerate as the advantages become more evident and as practices that reduce data loss become the accepted convention.
Haipeng Wang, Jianhui Chen, Shengda Zhang, David D. Zhang, Zongli Wang, Qinghai Xu, Shengqian Chen, Shijin Wang, Shichang Kang, and Fahu Chen
Clim. Past, 14, 383–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-383-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-383-2018, 2018
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The chironomid-inferred temperature record from Gonghai Lake exhibits a stepwise decreasing trend since 4 ka. A cold event in the Era of Disunity, the Sui-Tang Warm Period, the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age can all be recognized in our record, as well as in many other temperature reconstructions in China. Local wars in Shanxi Province, documented in the historical literature during the past 2700 years, are statistically significantly correlated with changes in temperature.
Hansi K. A. Singh, Gregory J. Hakim, Robert Tardif, Julien Emile-Geay, and David C. Noone
Clim. Past, 14, 157–174, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-157-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-157-2018, 2018
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The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is prominent in the climate system. We study the AMO over the last 2000 years using a novel proxy framework, the Last Millennium Reanalysis. We find that the AMO is linked to continental warming, Arctic sea ice retreat, and an Atlantic precipitation shift. Low clouds decrease globally. We find no distinct multidecadal spectral peak in the AMO over the last 2 millennia, suggesting that human activities may have enhanced the AMO in the modern era.
Ny Riavo Gilbertinie Voarintsoa, Loren Bruce Railsback, George Albert Brook, Lixin Wang, Gayatri Kathayat, Hai Cheng, Xianglei Li, Richard Lawrence Edwards, Amos Fety Michel Rakotondrazafy, and Marie Olga Madison Razanatseheno
Clim. Past, 13, 1771–1790, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1771-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1771-2017, 2017
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This research has been an investigation of two stalagmites from two caves in NW Madagascar to reconstruct the region's paleoenvironmental changes, and to understand the linkage of such changes to the dynamics of the ITCZ. Stable isotopes, mineralogy, and petrography suggest wetter climate conditions than today during the early and late Holocene, when the mean ITCZ was south, and drier during the mid-Holocene when the ITCZ was north.
Wei Ding, Qinghai Xu, and Pavel E. Tarasov
Clim. Past, 13, 1285–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1285-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1285-2017, 2017
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Pollen-based past climate reconstruction for regions with long-term human occupation is always controversial. We examined the bias induced by the human impact on vegetation in a climate reconstruction for temperate eastern China by comparing the deviations in the reconstructed results for a fossil record based on two pollen–climate calibration sets. Climatic signals in pollen assemblages are indeed obscured by human impact; however, the extent of the bias could be assessed.
Oliver Rach, Ansgar Kahmen, Achim Brauer, and Dirk Sachse
Clim. Past, 13, 741–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-741-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-741-2017, 2017
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Currently, reconstructions of past changes in the hydrological cycle are usually qualitative, which is a major drawback for testing the accuracy of models in predicting future responses. Here we present a proof of concept of a novel approach to deriving quantitative paleohydrological data, i.e. changes in relative humidity, from lacustrine sediment archives, employing a combination of organic geochemical methods and plant physiological modeling.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Eduardo Zorita, Christoph C. Raible, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 13, 629–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, 2017
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This contribution aims at assessing to what extent the analogue method, a classic technique used in other branches of meteorology and climatology, can be used to perform gridded reconstructions of annual temperature based on the limited information from available but un-calibrated proxies spread across different locations of the world. We conclude that it is indeed possible, albeit with certain limitations that render the method comparable to more classic techniques.
Atsushi Okazaki and Kei Yoshimura
Clim. Past, 13, 379–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-379-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-379-2017, 2017
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Data assimilation has been successfully applied in the field of paleoclimatology to reconstruct past climate. However, data reconstructed from proxies have been assimilated, as opposed to the actual proxy values, which prevented full utilization of the information recorded in the proxies. This study propose a new data assimilation system in which actual proxy data are directly assimilated.
Enlou Zhang, Jie Chang, Yanmin Cao, Hongqu Tang, Pete Langdon, James Shulmeister, Rong Wang, Xiangdong Yang, and Ji Shen
Clim. Past, 13, 185–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-185-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-185-2017, 2017
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This paper reports the first development of sub-fossil chironomid-based mean July temperature transfer functions from China. The transfer functions yield reliable reconstructions that are comparable to the instrumental record. The application of this new tool will provide long-term quantitative palaeoclimate estimates from south-western China which is a critical region for understanding the dynamic and evolution of the Indian Ocean south-west Monsoon system.
Kira Rehfeld, Mathias Trachsel, Richard J. Telford, and Thomas Laepple
Clim. Past, 12, 2255–2270, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2255-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2255-2016, 2016
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Indirect evidence on past climate comes from the former composition of ecological communities such as plants, preserved as pollen grains in sediments of lakes. Transfer functions convert relative counts of species to a climatologically meaningful scale (e.g. annual mean temperature in degrees C). We show that the fundamental assumptions in the algorithms impact the reconstruction results in he idealized model world, in particular if the reconstructed variables were not ecologically relevant.
Qing Yang, Xiaoqiang Li, Xinying Zhou, Keliang Zhao, and Nan Sun
Clim. Past, 12, 2229–2240, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2229-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2229-2016, 2016
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The fossilized seeds of common millet are suited to the production of quantitative Holocene precipitation reconstructions. Our reconstructed results showed that summer precipitation from 7.7–3.4 ka BP was ~ 50 mm, or 17 % higher than present levels. Maximal mean summer precipitation peaked at 414 mm during 6.1–5.5 ka BP, ~ 109 mm, or 36 % higher than today, indicating the EASM peaked at this time. This work can provide a new proxy for further research into continuous paleoprecipitation sequences.
Michael Deininger, Martin Werner, and Frank McDermott
Clim. Past, 12, 2127–2143, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, 2016
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This study investigates the NAO (Northern Atlantic Oscillation)-related mechanisms that control winter precipitation stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients across Europe. The results show that past longitudinal stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients in European rainfall stored in palaeoclimate archives (e.g. speleothems) can be used to infer the past winter NAO modes from its variations.
Liangjun Zhu, Yuandong Zhang, Zongshan Li, Binde Guo, and Xiaochun Wang
Clim. Past, 12, 1485–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1485-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1485-2016, 2016
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We present a 368-year late summer maximum temperature reconstruction based on spruce tree rings. It touches on the critical topic of climate reconstruction in the eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau and represents an extension and enhancement of climate records for this area. The Little Ice Age was well represented and 20th century warming was not obvious in this reconstruction. This temperature variation may be affected by global land–sea atmospheric circulation as well as solar and volcanic forcing.
Frazer Matthews-Bird, Stephen J. Brooks, Philip B. Holden, Encarni Montoya, and William D. Gosling
Clim. Past, 12, 1263–1280, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1263-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1263-2016, 2016
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Chironomidae are a family of two-winged aquatic fly of the order Diptera. The family is species rich (> 5000 described species) and extremely sensitive to environmental change, particualy temperature. Across the Northern Hemisphere, chironomids have been widely used as paleotemperature proxies as the chitinous remains of the insect are readily preserved in lake sediments. This is the first study using chironomids as paleotemperature proxies in tropical South America.
Karsten Schittek, Sebastian T. Kock, Andreas Lücke, Jonathan Hense, Christian Ohlendorf, Julio J. Kulemeyer, Liliana C. Lupo, and Frank Schäbitz
Clim. Past, 12, 1165–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1165-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1165-2016, 2016
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Cushion peatlands are versatile climate archives for the study of past environmental changes. We present the environmental history for the last 2100 years of Cerro Tuzgle peatland, which is located in the NW Argentine Puna. The results reflect prominent late Holocene climate anomalies and provide evidence that Northern Hemisphere climate oscillations were extensive. Volcanic forcing at the beginning of the 19th century seems to have had an impact on climatic settings in the Central Andes
Nicholas P. McKay and Julien Emile-Geay
Clim. Past, 12, 1093–1100, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1093-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1093-2016, 2016
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The lack of accepted data formats and data standards in paleoclimatology is a growing problem that slows progress in the field. Here, we propose a preliminary data standard for paleoclimate data, general enough to accommodate all the proxy and measurement types encountered in a large international collaboration (PAGES 2k). We also introduce a data format for such structured data (Linked Paleo Data, or LiPD), leveraging recent advances in knowledge representation (Linked Open Data).
Niamh Cahill, Andrew C. Kemp, Benjamin P. Horton, and Andrew C. Parnell
Clim. Past, 12, 525–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-525-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-525-2016, 2016
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We propose a Bayesian model for the reconstruction and analysis of former sea levels. The model provides a single, unifying framework for reconstructing and analyzing sea level through time with fully quantified uncertainty. We illustrate our approach using a case study of Common Era (last 2000 years) sea levels from New Jersey.
J. Emile-Geay and M. Tingley
Clim. Past, 12, 31–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-31-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-31-2016, 2016
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Ignoring nonlinearity in palaeoclimate records (e.g. continental run-off proxies) runs the risk of severely overstating changes in climate variability. Even with the correct model and parameters, some information is irretrievably lost by such proxies. However, we find that a simple empirical transform can do much to improve the situation, and makes them amenable to classical analyses. Doing so on two palaeo-ENSO records markedly changes some of the quantitative inferences made from such records.
Cited articles
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Short summary
We examined 71 pollen records (12.3 ka to present) in the eastern Mediterranean, reconstructing climate changes. Over 9000 years, winters gradually warmed due to orbital factors. Summer temperatures peaked at 4.5–5 ka, likely declining because of ice sheets. Moisture increased post-11 kyr, remaining high from 10–6 kyr before a slow decrease. Climate models face challenges in replicating moisture transport.
We examined 71 pollen records (12.3 ka to present) in the eastern Mediterranean, reconstructing...
