Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1169-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1169-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 May 2022
Research article |
| 24 May 2022
| 24 May 2022
Do Southern Hemisphere tree rings record past volcanic events? A case study from New Zealand
Philippa A. Higgins
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Water Research Centre, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Jonathan G. Palmer
ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Earth and Sustainability Science Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Chris S. M. Turney
ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Division of the Deputy Vice-Chancellor, Research, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2017, Australia
Martin S. Andersen
Water Research Laboratory, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Fiona Johnson
Water Research Centre, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
ARC Training Centre in Data Analytics for Resources and Environments, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
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Andy Baker, Margaret Shanafield, Wendy Timms, Martin Sogaard Andersen, Stacey Priestley, and Marilu Melo Zurita
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 13, 117–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-13-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-13-117-2024, 2024
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Much of the world relies on groundwater as a water resource, yet it is hard to know when and where rainfall replenishes our groundwater aquifers. Caves, mines, and tunnels that are situated above the groundwater table are unique observatories of water transiting from the land surface to the aquifer. This paper will show how networks of loggers deployed in these underground spaces across Australia have helped understand when, where, and how much rainfall is needed to replenish the groundwater.
Justin Peter, Elisabeth Vogel, Wendy Sharples, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Louise Wilson, Pandora Hope, Andrew Dowdy, Greg Kociuba, Sri Srikanthan, Vi Co Duong, Jake Roussis, Vjekoslav Matic, Zaved Khan, Alison Oke, Margot Turner, Stuart Baron-Hay, Fiona Johnson, Raj Mehrotra, Ashish Sharma, Marcus Thatcher, Ali Azarvinand, Steven Thomas, Ghyslaine Boschat, Chantal Donnelly, and Robert Argent
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2755–2781, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2755-2024, 2024
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We detail the production of datasets and communication to end users of high-resolution projections of rainfall, runoff, and soil moisture for the entire Australian continent. This is important as previous projections for Australia were for small regions and used differing techniques for their projections, making comparisons difficult across Australia's varied climate zones. The data will be beneficial for research purposes and to aid adaptation to climate change.
Conrad Wasko, Seth Westra, Rory Nathan, Acacia Pepler, Timothy H. Raupach, Andrew Dowdy, Fiona Johnson, Michelle Ho, Kathleen L. McInnes, Doerte Jakob, Jason Evans, Gabriele Villarini, and Hayley J. Fowler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1251–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024, 2024
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In response to flood risk, design flood estimation is a cornerstone of infrastructure design and emergency response planning, but design flood estimation guidance under climate change is still in its infancy. We perform the first published systematic review of the impact of climate change on design flood estimation and conduct a meta-analysis to provide quantitative estimates of possible future changes in extreme rainfall.
Gabriel C. Rau, Timothy C. McMillan, Martin S. Andersen, and Wendy A. Timms
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4301–4321, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4301-2022, 2022
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This work develops and applies a new method to estimate hydraulic and geomechanical subsurface properties in situ using standard groundwater and atmospheric pressure records. The estimated properties comply with expected values except for the Poisson ratio, which we attribute to the investigated scale and conditions. Our new approach can be used to cost-effectively investigate the subsurface using standard monitoring datasets.
Rob Wilson, Kathy Allen, Patrick Baker, Gretel Boswijk, Brendan Buckley, Edward Cook, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Dan Druckenbrod, Anthony Fowler, Margaux Grandjean, Paul Krusic, and Jonathan Palmer
Biogeosciences, 18, 6393–6421, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, 2021
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We explore blue intensity (BI) – a low-cost method for measuring ring density – to enhance palaeoclimatology in Australasia. Calibration experiments, using several conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand, model 50–80 % of the summer temperature variance. The implications of these results have profound consequences for high-resolution paleoclimatology in Australasia, as the speed and cheapness of BI generation could lead to a step change in our understanding of past climate in the region.
Chris S. M. Turney, Richard T. Jones, Nicholas P. McKay, Erik van Sebille, Zoë A. Thomas, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, and Christopher J. Fogwill
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3341–3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020, 2020
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The Last Interglacial (129–116 ka) experienced global temperatures and sea levels higher than today. The direct contribution of warmer conditions to global sea level (thermosteric) are uncertain. We report a global network of sea surface temperatures. We find mean global annual temperature anomalies of 0.2 ± 0.1˚C and an early maximum peak of 0.9 ± 0.1˚C. Our reconstruction suggests warmer waters contributed on average 0.08 ± 0.1 m and a peak contribution of 0.39 ± 0.1 m to global sea level.
Karina T. Meredith, Andy Baker, Martin S. Andersen, Denis M. O'Carroll, Helen Rutlidge, Liza K. McDonough, Phetdala Oudone, Eliza Bryan, and Nur Syahiza Zainuddin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2167–2178, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2167-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2167-2020, 2020
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Dissolved organic carbon within groundwater and processes controlling it remain largely unknown. The average groundwater concentration at this coastal site was 5 times higher than the global median, doubling with depth, but with no change in chromatographic character. The lack of oxygen limited the rate of organic matter processing, leading to enhanced preservation. Changes in coastal hydrology could lead to the flux of unreacted organic carbon.
Chris S. M. Turney, Helen V. McGregor, Pierre Francus, Nerilie Abram, Michael N. Evans, Hugues Goosse, Lucien von Gunten, Darrell Kaufman, Hans Linderholm, Marie-France Loutre, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 15, 611–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, 2019
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This PAGES (Past Global Changes) 2k (climate of the past 2000 years working group) special issue of Climate of the Past brings together the latest understanding of regional change and impacts from PAGES 2k groups across a range of proxies and regions. The special issue has emerged from a need to determine the magnitude and rate of change of regional and global climate beyond the timescales accessible within the observational record.
Eleanor Rainsley, Chris S. M. Turney, Nicholas R. Golledge, Janet M. Wilmshurst, Matt S. McGlone, Alan G. Hogg, Bo Li, Zoë A. Thomas, Richard Roberts, Richard T. Jones, Jonathan G. Palmer, Verity Flett, Gregory de Wet, David K. Hutchinson, Mathew J. Lipson, Pavla Fenwick, Ben R. Hines, Umberto Binetti, and Christopher J. Fogwill
Clim. Past, 15, 423–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-423-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-423-2019, 2019
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The New Zealand subantarctic islands, in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, provide valuable records of past environmental change. We find that the Auckland Islands hosted a small ice cap around 384 000 years ago, but that there was little glaciation during the Last Glacial Maximum, around 21 000 years ago, in contrast to mainland New Zealand. This shows that the climate here is susceptible to changes in regional factors such as sea-ice expanse and the position of ocean fronts.
Amy J. Dougherty, Jeong-Heon Choi, Chris S. M. Turney, and Anthony Dosseto
Clim. Past, 15, 389–404, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-389-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-389-2019, 2019
Florian Adolphi, Christopher Bronk Ramsey, Tobias Erhardt, R. Lawrence Edwards, Hai Cheng, Chris S. M. Turney, Alan Cooper, Anders Svensson, Sune O. Rasmussen, Hubertus Fischer, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 14, 1755–1781, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1755-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1755-2018, 2018
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The last glacial period was characterized by a number of rapid climate changes seen, for example, as abrupt warmings in Greenland and changes in monsoon rainfall intensity. However, due to chronological uncertainties it is challenging to know how tightly coupled these changes were. Here we exploit cosmogenic signals caused by changes in the Sun and Earth magnetic fields to link different climate archives and improve our understanding of the dynamics of abrupt climate change.
Zoë A. Thomas, Richard T. Jones, Chris J. Fogwill, Jackie Hatton, Alan N. Williams, Alan Hogg, Scott Mooney, Philip Jones, David Lister, Paul Mayewski, and Chris S. M. Turney
Clim. Past, 14, 1727–1738, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1727-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1727-2018, 2018
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We report a high-resolution study of a 5000-year-long peat record from the Falkland Islands. This area sensitive to the dynamics of the Amundsen Sea Low, which plays a major role in modulating the Southern Ocean climate. We find wetter, colder conditions between 5.0 and 2.5 ka due to enhanced southerly airflow, with the establishment of drier and warmer conditions from 2.5 ka to present. This implies more westerly airflow and the increased projection of the ASL onto the South Atlantic.
Charlotte P. Iverach, Dioni I. Cendón, Karina T. Meredith, Klaus M. Wilcken, Stuart I. Hankin, Martin S. Andersen, and Bryce F. J. Kelly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5953–5969, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5953-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5953-2017, 2017
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This study uses a multi-tracer geochemical approach to determine the extent of artesian groundwater discharge into an economically important alluvial aquifer. We compare estimates for artesian discharge into the alluvial aquifer derived from water balance modelling and geochemical data to show that there is considerable divergence in the results. The implications of this work involve highlighting that geochemical data should be used as a critical component of water budget assessments.
Chris S.~M. Turney, Andrew Klekociuk, Christopher J. Fogwill, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Claire L. Parkinson, Gilbert Compo, Matthew Lazzara, Linda Keller, Rob Allan, Jonathan G. Palmer, Graeme Clark, and Ezequiel Marzinelli
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We demonstrate that a mid-twentieth century decrease in geopotential height in the southwest Pacific marks a Rossby wave response to equatorial Pacific warming, leading to enhanced easterly airflow off George V Land. Our results suggest that in contrast to ozone hole-driven changes in the Amundsen Sea, the 1979–2015 increase in sea ice extent off George V Land may be in response to reduced northward Ekman drift and enhanced (near-coast) production as a consequence of low latitude forcing.
Chris S. M. Turney, Christopher J. Fogwill, Jonathan G. Palmer, Erik van Sebille, Zoë Thomas, Matt McGlone, Sarah Richardson, Janet M. Wilmshurst, Pavla Fenwick, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Kerry-Jayne Wilson, Lionel Carter, Mathew Lipson, Richard T. Jones, Melanie Harsch, Graeme Clark, Ezequiel Marzinelli, Tracey Rogers, Eleanor Rainsley, Laura Ciasto, Stephanie Waterman, Elizabeth R. Thomas, and Martin Visbeck
Clim. Past, 13, 231–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, 2017
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The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in global climate but suffers from a dearth of observational data. As the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013–2014 we have developed the first annually resolved temperature record using trees from subantarctic southwest Pacific (52–54˚S) to extend the climate record back to 1870. With modelling we show today's high climate variability became established in the ~1940s and likely driven by a Rossby wave response originating from the tropical Pacific.
Christopher J. Fogwill, Erik van Sebille, Eva A. Cougnon, Chris S. M. Turney, Steve R. Rintoul, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Graeme F. Clark, E. M. Marzinelli, Eleanor B. Rainsley, and Lionel Carter
The Cryosphere, 10, 2603–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2603-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2603-2016, 2016
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Here we report new data from in situ oceanographic surveys and high-resolution ocean modelling experiments in the Commonwealth Bay region of East Antarctica, where in 2010 there was a major reconfiguration of the regional icescape due to the collision of the 97 km long iceberg B09B with the Mertz Glacier tongue. Here we compare post-calving observations with high-resolution ocean modelling which suggest that this reconfiguration has led to the development of a new polynya off Commonwealth Bay.
Steven J. Phipps, Christopher J. Fogwill, and Christian S. M. Turney
The Cryosphere, 10, 2317–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2317-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2317-2016, 2016
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We explore the effects of melting of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet on the Southern Ocean. Using a climate model, we find that melting changes the ocean circulation and causes warming of more than 1 °C at depth. We also discover the potential existence of a "domino effect", whereby the initial warming spreads westwards around the Antarctic continent. Melting of just one sector could therefore destabilise the wider Antarctic Ice Sheet, leading to substantial increases in global sea level.
C. S. M. Turney, R. T. Jones, C. Fogwill, J. Hatton, A. N. Williams, A. Hogg, Z. A. Thomas, J. Palmer, S. Mooney, and R. W. Reimer
Clim. Past, 12, 189–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-189-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-189-2016, 2016
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Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow is considered a major driver of Southern Ocean and global climate. Observational records, however, are limited. Here we present a new Falkland Islands record that exploits "exotic" South America pollen and charcoal to reconstruct changing airflow. We find stronger winds 2000–1000 cal. yr BP, associated with increased burning, and a 250-year periodicity, suggesting solar forcing. Our results have important implications for understanding late Holocene climates.
C. S. M. Turney, C. J. Fogwill, A. R. Klekociuk, T. D. van Ommen, M. A. J. Curran, A. D. Moy, and J. G. Palmer
The Cryosphere, 9, 2405–2415, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2405-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2405-2015, 2015
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Recent trends in ocean circulation, sea ice and climate over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica are highly complex. Here we report a new snow core from the South Pole alongside reanalysis of 20th century global atmospheric circulation. We demonstrate for the first time that atmospheric pressure anomalies in the mid-latitudes act as "gatekeepers" to meridional exchange over continental Antarctica, modulated by the tropical Pacific, with potentially significant impacts on surface mass balance.
Z. A. Thomas, F. Kwasniok, C. A. Boulton, P. M. Cox, R. T. Jones, T. M. Lenton, and C. S. M. Turney
Clim. Past, 11, 1621–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015, 2015
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Using a combination of speleothem records and model simulations of the East Asian Monsoon over the penultimate glacial cycle, we search for early warning signals of past tipping points. We detect a characteristic slower response to perturbations prior to an abrupt monsoon shift at the glacial termination; however, we do not detect these signals in the preceding shifts. Our results have important implications for detecting tipping points in palaeoclimate records outside glacial terminations.
A. Rouillard, G. Skrzypek, S. Dogramaci, C. Turney, and P. F. Grierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2057–2078, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2057-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2057-2015, 2015
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We reconstructed a 100-year monthly history of flooding and drought of a large wetland in arid northwest Australia, using hydroclimatic data calibrated against 25 years of satellite images. Severe and intense regional rainfall, as well as the sequence of events, determined surface water expression on the floodplain. While inter-annual variability was high, changes to the flood regime over the last 20 years suggest the wetland may become more persistent in response to the observed rainfall trend.
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Centennial-Decadal
A past and present perspective on the European summer vapor pressure deficit
Drought reconstruction since 1796 CE based on tree-ring widths in the upper Heilongjiang (Amur) River basin in Northeast Asia and its linkage to Pacific Ocean climate variability
Drought increase since the mid-20th century in the northern South American Altiplano revealed by a 389-year precipitation record
Climate change detection and attribution using observed and simulated tree-ring width
Integrating plant wax abundance and isotopes for paleo-vegetation and paleoclimate reconstructions: a multi-source mixing model using a Bayesian framework
Prospects for dendroanatomy in paleoclimatology – a case study on Picea engelmannii from the Canadian Rockies
Reconstructing past hydrology of eastern Canadian boreal catchments using clastic varved sediments and hydro-climatic modelling: 160 years of fluvial inflows
A 2600-year summer climate reconstruction in central Japan by integrating tree-ring stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes
An overview on isotopic divergences – causes for instability of tree-ring isotopes and climate correlations
Proxy surrogate reconstructions for Europe and the estimation of their uncertainties
The 4.2 ka event in the central Mediterranean: new data from a Corchia speleothem (Apuan Alps, central Italy)
A 900-year New England temperature reconstruction from in situ seasonally produced branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs)
Leaf wax n-alkane distributions record ecological changes during the Younger Dryas at Trzechowskie paleolake (northern Poland) without temporal delay
Ground surface temperature reconstruction for the last 500 years obtained from permafrost temperatures observed in the SHARE STELVIO Borehole, Italian Alps
Decreasing Indian summer monsoon on the northern Indian sub-continent during the last 180 years: evidence from five tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotope chronologies
Recent climate variations in Chile: constraints from borehole temperature profiles
Spatio-temporal variability of Arctic summer temperatures over the past 2 millennia
Palaeoclimate significance of speleothems in crystalline rocks: a test case from the Late Glacial and early Holocene (Vinschgau, northern Italy)
Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era
Climate signals in a multispecies tree-ring network from central and southern Italy and reconstruction of the late summer temperatures since the early 1700s
Low-resolution Australasian palaeoclimate records of the last 2000 years
Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years
Experiments based on blue intensity for reconstructing North Pacific temperatures along the Gulf of Alaska
Spring temperature variability over Turkey since 1800 CE reconstructed from a broad network of tree-ring data
On the spatial and temporal variability of ENSO precipitation and drought teleconnection in mainland Southeast Asia
Interannual and (multi-)decadal variability in the sedimentary BIT index of Lake Challa, East Africa, over the past 2200 years: assessment of the precipitation proxy
A tree-ring perspective on temporal changes in the frequency and intensity of hydroclimatic extremes in the territory of the Czech Republic since 761 AD
Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: a tree-ring-based reconstruction
Optimal ranking regime analysis of TreeFlow dendrohydrological reconstructions
New insights into the reconstructed temperature in Portugal over the last 400 years
Expressions of climate perturbations in western Ugandan crater lake sediment records during the last 1000 years
Blue intensity and density from northern Fennoscandian tree rings, exploring the potential to improve summer temperature reconstructions with earlywood information
Reconstruction of the March–August PDSI since 1703 AD based on tree rings of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) in the Lingkong Mountain, southeast Chinese loess Plateau
Forward modelling of tree-ring width and comparison with a global network of tree-ring chronologies
Reconstruction of northeast Asia spring temperature 1784–1990
COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models (COPRA)
A 560 yr summer temperature reconstruction for the Western Mediterranean basin based on stable carbon isotopes from Pinus nigra ssp. laricio (Corsica/France)
Isotopic and lithologic variations of one precisely-dated stalagmite across the Medieval/LIA period from Heilong Cave, central China
Modelling and climatic interpretation of the length fluctuations of Glaciar Frías (north Patagonian Andes, Argentina) 1639–2009 AD
A review of the South American monsoon history as recorded in stable isotopic proxies over the past two millennia
Identification of climatic state with limited proxy data
Multi-century tree-ring based reconstruction of the Neuquén River streamflow, northern Patagonia, Argentina
Extreme pointer years in tree-ring records of Central Spain as evidence of climatic events and the eruption of the Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru, 1600 AD)
Precipitation changes in the South American Altiplano since 1300 AD reconstructed by tree-rings
Fire history in western Patagonia from paired tree-ring fire-scar and charcoal records
Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries
Viorica Nagavciuc, Simon L. L. Michel, Daniel F. Balting, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David N. Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Clim. Past, 20, 573–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, 2024
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The main aim of this paper is to present the summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) reconstruction dataset for the last 400 years over Europe based on δ18O records by using a random forest approach. We provide both a spatial and a temporal long-term perspective on the past summer VPD and new insights into the relationship between summer VPD and large-scale atmospheric circulation. This is the first gridded reconstruction of the European summer VPD over the past 400 years.
Yang Xu, Heli Zhang, Feng Chen, Shijie Wang, Mao Hu, Martín Hadad, and Fidel Roig
Clim. Past, 19, 2079–2092, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2079-2023, 2023
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We reconstructed the monthly mean self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index for May–July in the upper Heilongjiang (Amur) Basin since 1796. Our analysis suggests that the dry/wet variability in this basin is related to several large-scale climate stresses and atmospheric circulation patterns (El Niño–Southern Oscillation). The cause of drought is primarily a reduction in advective water vapor transport, rather than precipitation circulation processes.
Mariano S. Morales, Doris B. Crispín-DelaCruz, Claudio Álvarez, Duncan A. Christie, M. Eugenia Ferrero, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Ricardo Villalba, Anthony Guerra, Ginette Ticse-Otarola, Ernesto C. Rodríguez-Ramírez, Rosmery LLocclla-Martínez, Joali Sanchez-Ferrer, and Edilson J. Requena-Rojas
Clim. Past, 19, 457–476, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-457-2023, 2023
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In this study, we develop the first tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction for the northern South American Altiplano back to 1625 CE. We established that the occurrence rate of extreme dry events together with a shift in mean dry conditions for the late 20th–beginning of the 21st century is unprecedented in the past 389 years, consistent with other paleoclimatic records. Our reconstruction provides valuable information about El Niño–Southern Oscillation influences on local precipitation.
Jörg Franke, Michael N. Evans, Andrew Schurer, and Gabriele C. Hegerl
Clim. Past, 18, 2583–2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2583-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2583-2022, 2022
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Detection and attribution is a statistical method to evaluate if external factors or random variability have caused climatic changes. We use for the first time a comparison of simulated and observed tree-ring width that circumvents many limitations of previous studies relying on climate reconstructions. We attribute variability in temperature-limited trees to strong volcanic eruptions and for the first time detect a spatial pattern in the growth of moisture-sensitive trees after eruptions.
Deming Yang and Gabriel J. Bowen
Clim. Past, 18, 2181–2210, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2181-2022, 2022
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Plant wax lipid ratios and their isotopes are used in vegetation and paleoclimate reconstructions. While studies often use either type of data, both can inform the mixing pattern of source plants. We developed a statistic model that evaluates ratios and isotopes together. Through case studies, we showed that the approach allows more detailed interpretations of vegetation and paleoclimate than traditional methods. This evolving framework can include more geochemical tracers in the future.
Kristina Seftigen, Marina V. Fonti, Brian Luckman, Miloš Rydval, Petter Stridbeck, Georg von Arx, Rob Wilson, and Jesper Björklund
Clim. Past, 18, 1151–1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1151-2022, 2022
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New proxies and improvements in existing methodologies are needed to advance paleoclimate research. This study explored dendroanatomy, the analysis of wood anatomical parameters in dated tree rings, of Engelmann spruce from the Columbia Icefield area, Canada, as a proxy of past temperatures. Our new parameters compare favorably with state of the art proxy parameters from X-ray and visible light techniques, particularly with respect to the temporal stability of the temperature signal.
Antoine Gagnon-Poiré, Pierre Brigode, Pierre Francus, David Fortin, Patrick Lajeunesse, Hugues Dorion, and Annie-Pier Trottier
Clim. Past, 17, 653–673, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-653-2021, 2021
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A very high quality 160-year-long annually laminated (varved) sediment sequence of fluvial origin was recently discovered in an especially deep lake in Labrador. Each varve represents 1 hydrological year. A significant relation between varves' physical parameters (i.e., thickness and grain size extracted from each annual lamination) and river discharge instrumental observations provided the opportunity to develop regional discharge reconstructions beyond the instrumental period.
Takeshi Nakatsuka, Masaki Sano, Zhen Li, Chenxi Xu, Akane Tsushima, Yuki Shigeoka, Kenjiro Sho, Keiko Ohnishi, Minoru Sakamoto, Hiromasa Ozaki, Noboru Higami, Nanae Nakao, Misao Yokoyama, and Takumi Mitsutani
Clim. Past, 16, 2153–2172, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2153-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2153-2020, 2020
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In general, it is not easy to reconstruct past climate variations over a wide band of frequencies using a single proxy. Here, we propose a new method to reconstruct past summer climate seamlessly from annual to millennial timescales by integrating tree-ring cellulose oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios. The result can be utilized to investigate various scales of climatological phenomena in the past and climate–society relationships in long human history.
Martine M. Savard and Valérie Daux
Clim. Past, 16, 1223–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1223-2020, 2020
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Climatic reconstructions based on tree-ring isotopic series convey key information on past conditions prevailing in forested regions. However, in some cases, the relations between isotopes and climate appear unstable over time, generating isotopic divergences. Former reviews have thoroughly discussed the divergence concept for tree-ring width but not for isotopes. Here we present a synopsis of the isotopic divergence problem and suggest collaborative work for improving climatic reconstructions.
Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 16, 341–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, 2020
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One can use the similarity between sparse indirect observations of past climates and full fields of simulated climates to learn more about past climates. Here, we detail how one can compute uncertainty estimates for such reconstructions of past climates. This highlights the ambiguity of the reconstruction. We further show that such a reconstruction for European summer temperature agrees well with a more common approach.
Ilaria Isola, Giovanni Zanchetta, Russell N. Drysdale, Eleonora Regattieri, Monica Bini, Petra Bajo, John C. Hellstrom, Ilaria Baneschi, Piero Lionello, Jon Woodhead, and Alan Greig
Clim. Past, 15, 135–151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-135-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-135-2019, 2019
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To understand the natural variability in the climate system, the hydrological aspect (dry and wet conditions) is particularly important for its impact on our societies. The reconstruction of past precipitation regimes can provide a useful tool for forecasting future climate changes. We use multi-proxy time series (oxygen and carbon isotopes, trace elements) from a speleothem to investigate circulation pattern variations and seasonality effects during the dry 4.2 ka event in central Italy.
Daniel R. Miller, M. Helen Habicht, Benjamin A. Keisling, Isla S. Castañeda, and Raymond S. Bradley
Clim. Past, 14, 1653–1667, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1653-2018, 2018
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We measured biomarker production over a year in a small inland lake in the northeastern USA. Understanding biomarkers in the modern environment helps us improve reconstructions of past climate from lake sediment records. We use these results to interpret a 900-year decadally resolved temperature record from this lake. Our record highlights multi-decadal oscillations in temperature superimposed on a long-term cooling trend, providing novel insight into climate dynamics of the region.
Bernhard Aichner, Florian Ott, Michał Słowiński, Agnieszka M. Noryśkiewicz, Achim Brauer, and Dirk Sachse
Clim. Past, 14, 1607–1624, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1607-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1607-2018, 2018
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Abundances of plant biomarkers are compared with pollen data in a 3000-year climate archive covering the Late Glacial to Holocene transition in northern Poland. Both parameters synchronously show the rapid onset (12680–12600 yr BP) and termination
(11580–11490 yr BP) of the Younger Dryas cold interval in the study area. This demonstrates the suitability of such proxies to record pronounced changes in vegetation cover without significant delay.
Mauro Guglielmin, Marco Donatelli, Matteo Semplice, and Stefano Serra Capizzano
Clim. Past, 14, 709–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-709-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-709-2018, 2018
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The reconstruction of ground surface temperature for the last 500 years, obtained at the deepest mountain permafrost borehole of the world (Stelvio Pass, 3000 m a.s.l., Italian Alps), is presented here. The main difference with respect to MAAT reconstructions obtained through other proxy data for all of Europe relates to post Little Ice Age (LIA) events. Indeed at this site a stronger cooling of ca 1 °C between 1940 and 1989 and even a more abrupt warming between 1990 and 2011 was detected.
Chenxi Xu, Masaki Sano, Ashok Priyadarshan Dimri, Rengaswamy Ramesh, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Feng Shi, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past, 14, 653–664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-653-2018, 2018
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We have constructed a regional tree ring cellulose oxygen isotope record using a total of five chronologies obtained from the Himalaya. Centennial changes in the regional tree ring record indicate a trend of weakened Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intensity since 1820. Decreasing ISM activity is also observed in various high-resolution ISM records from southwest China and Southeast Asia, and may be the result of reduced land–ocean thermal contrasts since 1820.
Carolyne Pickler, Edmundo Gurza Fausto, Hugo Beltrami, Jean-Claude Mareschal, Francisco Suárez, Arlette Chacon-Oecklers, Nicole Blin, Maria Teresa Cortés Calderón, Alvaro Montenegro, Rob Harris, and Andres Tassara
Clim. Past, 14, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, 2018
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We compiled 31 temperature–depth profiles to reconstruct the ground surface temperature of the last 500 years in northern Chile. They suggest that the region experienced a cooling from 1850 to 1980 followed by a warming of 1.9 K. The cooling could coincide with a cooling interval in 1960. The warming is greater than that of proxy reconstructions for nearby regions and model simulations. These differences could be due to differences in spatial and temporal resolution between data and models.
Johannes P. Werner, Dmitry V. Divine, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Tine Nilsen, and Pierre Francus
Clim. Past, 14, 527–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018, 2018
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We present a new gridded Arctic summer temperature reconstruction back to the first millennium CE. Our method respects the age uncertainties of the data, which results in a more precise reconstruction.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
Gabriella Koltai, Hai Cheng, and Christoph Spötl
Clim. Past, 14, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-369-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-369-2018, 2018
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Here we present a multi-proxy study of flowstones in fractures of crystalline rocks with the aim of assessing the palaeoclimate significance of this new type of speleothem archive. Our results indicate a high degree of spatial heterogeneity, whereby changes in speleothem mineralogy and carbon isotope composition are likely governed by aquifer-internal processes. In contrast, the oxygen isotope composition reflects first-order climate variability.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
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Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Giovanni Leonelli, Anna Coppola, Maria Cristina Salvatore, Carlo Baroni, Giovanna Battipaglia, Tiziana Gentilesca, Francesco Ripullone, Marco Borghetti, Emanuele Conte, Roberto Tognetti, Marco Marchetti, Fabio Lombardi, Michele Brunetti, Maurizio Maugeri, Manuela Pelfini, Paolo Cherubini, Antonello Provenzale, and Valter Maggi
Clim. Past, 13, 1451–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1451-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1451-2017, 2017
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We analyze a tree-ring network from several sites distributed along the Italian Peninsula with the aims of detecting common climate drivers of tree growth and of reconstructing the past climate. We detect the main climatic drivers modulating tree-ring width (RW) and tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) and we reconstruct late summer temperatures since the early 1700s using a MXD chronology: this reconstruction is representative of a wide area around the Italian Peninsula.
Bronwyn C. Dixon, Jonathan J. Tyler, Andrew M. Lorrey, Ian D. Goodwin, Joëlle Gergis, and Russell N. Drysdale
Clim. Past, 13, 1403–1433, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1403-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1403-2017, 2017
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Existing sedimentary palaeoclimate records in Australasia were assessed for suitability for examining the last 2 millennia. A small number of high-quality records were identified, and new Bayesian age models were constructed for each record. Findings suggest that Australasian record chronologies and confidence in proxy–climate relationships are the main factors limiting appropriate data for examining Common Era climate variability. Recommendations for improving data accessibility are provided.
Jennifer R. Marlon, Neil Pederson, Connor Nolan, Simon Goring, Bryan Shuman, Ann Robertson, Robert Booth, Patrick J. Bartlein, Melissa A. Berke, Michael Clifford, Edward Cook, Ann Dieffenbacher-Krall, Michael C. Dietze, Amy Hessl, J. Bradford Hubeny, Stephen T. Jackson, Jeremiah Marsicek, Jason McLachlan, Cary J. Mock, David J. P. Moore, Jonathan Nichols, Dorothy Peteet, Kevin Schaefer, Valerie Trouet, Charles Umbanhowar, John W. Williams, and Zicheng Yu
Clim. Past, 13, 1355–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, 2017
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To improve our understanding of paleoclimate in the northeastern (NE) US, we compiled data from pollen, tree rings, lake levels, testate amoeba from bogs, and other proxies from the last 3000 years. The paleoclimate synthesis supports long-term cooling until the 1800s and reveals an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions around 550–750 CE. Evidence suggests the region is now becoming warmer and wetter, but more calibrated data are needed, especially to capture multidecadal variability.
Rob Wilson, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Rose Oelkers, Greg Wiles, Kevin Anchukaitis, and Nicole Davi
Clim. Past, 13, 1007–1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1007-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1007-2017, 2017
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Blue intensity shows great potential for reconstructing past summer temperatures from conifer trees growing at high latitude or the treeline. However, conifer species that express a strong colour difference between the heartwood and sapwood can impart a long-term trend bias in the resultant reconstructions. Herein, we highlight this issue using eight mountain hemlock sites across the Gulf of Alaska and explore how a non-biased reconstruction of past temperature could be derived using such data.
Nesibe Köse, H. Tuncay Güner, Grant L. Harley, and Joel Guiot
Clim. Past, 13, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1-2017, 2017
Timo A. Räsänen, Ville Lindgren, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Brendan M. Buckley, and Matti Kummu
Clim. Past, 12, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, 2016
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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is linked to severe droughts and floods in mainland Southeast Asia. This research provides a more accurate and uniform picture of the spatio-temporal effects of ENSO on precipitation (1980–2013) and improves our understanding of long-term (1650–2004) ENSO teleconnection and its variability over the study area. The results reveal not only recognisable spatio-temporal patterns but also a high degree of variability and non-stationarity in the effects of ENSO.
Laura K. Buckles, Dirk Verschuren, Johan W. H. Weijers, Christine Cocquyt, Maarten Blaauw, and Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté
Clim. Past, 12, 1243–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1243-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1243-2016, 2016
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This paper discusses the underlying mechanisms of a method that uses specific membrane lipids present in the sediments of an African tropical lake to determine past changes in rainfall. With this method, past dry periods in the last 25 000 years can be assessed.
P. Dobrovolný, M. Rybníček, T. Kolář, R. Brázdil, M. Trnka, and U. Büntgen
Clim. Past, 11, 1453–1466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1453-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1453-2015, 2015
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A new data set of 3194 oak (Quercus spp.) ring width samples collected across the Czech Republic and covering the past 1250 years was analysed. The temporal distribution of negative and positive TRW extremes occurring is regular with no indication of clustering. Negative TRW extremes coincided with above-average March-May and June-August temperature means and below-average precipitation totals. Positive extremes coincided with higher summer precipitation, while temperatures were mostly normal.
M. S. Morales, J. Carilla, H. R. Grau, and R. Villalba
Clim. Past, 11, 1139–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015, 2015
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A 601-year lake area reconstruction in NW Argentina and SW Bolivia, characterized the occurrence of annual to multi-decadal lake area fluctuations and its main oscillation modes of variability. Our reconstruction points out that the late 20th century decrease in lake area was exceptional over the period 1407–2007. A persistent negative trend in lake area is clear in the reconstruction and consistent with glacier retreat and other climate proxies from the Altiplano and the tropical Andes.
S. A. Mauget
Clim. Past, 11, 1107–1125, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1107-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1107-2015, 2015
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A new approach to time series analysis - the ORR method - was used to evaluate reconstructed western US streamflow records during 1500-2007. This method shows an interesting pattern of alternating drought and wet periods during the late 16th and 17th centuries, a period with relatively few drought or wet periods during the 18th century, and the and the reappearance of alternating dry and wet periods during the 19th and early 20th centuries.
J. A. Santos, M. F. Carneiro, A. Correia, M. J. Alcoforado, E. Zorita, and J. J. Gómez-Navarro
Clim. Past, 11, 825–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, 2015
K. Mills, D. B. Ryves, N. J. Anderson, C. L. Bryant, and J. J. Tyler
Clim. Past, 10, 1581–1601, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1581-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1581-2014, 2014
J. A. Björklund, B. E. Gunnarson, K. Seftigen, J. Esper, and H. W. Linderholm
Clim. Past, 10, 877–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-877-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-877-2014, 2014
Q. Cai, Y. Liu, Y. Lei, G. Bao, and B. Sun
Clim. Past, 10, 509–521, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-509-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-509-2014, 2014
P. Breitenmoser, S. Brönnimann, and D. Frank
Clim. Past, 10, 437–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-437-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-437-2014, 2014
M. Ohyama, H. Yonenobu, J.-N. Choi, W.-K. Park, M. Hanzawa, and M. Suzuki
Clim. Past, 9, 261–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-261-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-261-2013, 2013
S. F. M. Breitenbach, K. Rehfeld, B. Goswami, J. U. L. Baldini, H. E. Ridley, D. J. Kennett, K. M. Prufer, V. V. Aquino, Y. Asmerom, V. J. Polyak, H. Cheng, J. Kurths, and N. Marwan
Clim. Past, 8, 1765–1779, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1765-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1765-2012, 2012
S. Szymczak, M. M. Joachimski, A. Bräuning, T. Hetzer, and J. Kuhlemann
Clim. Past, 8, 1737–1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1737-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1737-2012, 2012
Y. F. Cui, Y. J. Wang, H. Cheng, K. Zhao, and X. G. Kong
Clim. Past, 8, 1541–1550, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1541-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1541-2012, 2012
P. W. Leclercq, P. Pitte, R. H. Giesen, M. H. Masiokas, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 8, 1385–1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1385-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1385-2012, 2012
M. Vuille, S. J. Burns, B. L. Taylor, F. W. Cruz, B. W. Bird, M. B. Abbott, L. C. Kanner, H. Cheng, and V. F. Novello
Clim. Past, 8, 1309–1321, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1309-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1309-2012, 2012
J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves
Clim. Past, 8, 1141–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1141-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1141-2012, 2012
I. A. Mundo, M. H. Masiokas, R. Villalba, M. S. Morales, R. Neukom, C. Le Quesne, R. B. Urrutia, and A. Lara
Clim. Past, 8, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-815-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-815-2012, 2012
M. Génova
Clim. Past, 8, 751–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-751-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-751-2012, 2012
M. S. Morales, D. A. Christie, R. Villalba, J. Argollo, J. Pacajes, J. S. Silva, C. A. Alvarez, J. C. Llancabure, and C. C. Soliz Gamboa
Clim. Past, 8, 653–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-653-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-653-2012, 2012
A. Holz, S. Haberle, T. T. Veblen, R. De Pol-Holz, and J. Southon
Clim. Past, 8, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-451-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-451-2012, 2012
F. C. Ljungqvist, P. J. Krusic, G. Brattström, and H. S. Sundqvist
Clim. Past, 8, 227–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-227-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-227-2012, 2012
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Short summary
We studied eight New Zealand tree species and identified differences in their responses to large volcanic eruptions. The response is dependent on the species and how well it can tolerate stress, but substantial within-species differences are also observed depending on site factors, including altitude and exposure. This has important implications for tree-ring temperature reconstructions because site selection and compositing methods can change the magnitude of observed volcanic cooling.
We studied eight New Zealand tree species and identified differences in their responses to large...
