Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Apr 2018
Research article |
| 26 Apr 2018
| 26 Apr 2018
Recent climate variations in Chile: constraints from borehole temperature profiles
Carolyne Pickler
GEOTOP, Centre de Recherche en Géochimie et en Géodynamique, Université du Québec à
Montréal, Canada
Edmundo Gurza Fausto
Climate & Atmospheric Sciences Institute and
Department of Earth Sciences, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, Nova
Scotia, Canada
Climate & Atmospheric Sciences Institute and
Department of Earth Sciences, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, Nova
Scotia, Canada
Centre pour l'étude et la simulation du climat à l'échelle régionale
(ESCER), Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada
Jean-Claude Mareschal
GEOTOP, Centre de Recherche en Géochimie et en Géodynamique, Université du Québec à
Montréal, Canada
Francisco Suárez
Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, RM, Chile
Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustenable (CEDEUS), Santiago, RM, Chile
Centro de Excelencia en Geotermia de los Andes (CEGA), Santiago, RM, Chile
Arlette Chacon-Oecklers
Centre pour l'étude et la simulation du climat à l'échelle régionale
(ESCER), Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada
Nicole Blin
Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, RM, Chile
Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustenable (CEDEUS), Santiago, RM, Chile
Centro de Excelencia en Geotermia de los Andes (CEGA), Santiago, RM, Chile
Maria Teresa Cortés Calderón
Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, RM, Chile
Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustenable (CEDEUS), Santiago, RM, Chile
Centro de Excelencia en Geotermia de los Andes (CEGA), Santiago, RM, Chile
Alvaro Montenegro
Climate & Atmospheric Sciences Institute and
Department of Earth Sciences, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, Nova
Scotia, Canada
Department of Geography, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
Rob Harris
CEOAS, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, USA
Andres Tassara
Departamento Ciencias de la Tierra, Facultad de Ciencias Químicas, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
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Carolyne Pickler, Hugo Beltrami, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 2215–2227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2215-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2215-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The ground surface temperature histories of the past 500 years were reconstructed at 10 sites in northern Ontario and Quebec. The regions experienced a warming of ~1–2 K for the past 150 years, agreeing with borehole reconstructions for southern Ontario and Quebec and proxy data. Permafrost maps locate the sites in a region of discontinuous permafrost but our reconstructions suggest that the potential for permafrost was minimal to absent over the past 500 years.
Fernando Jaume-Santero, Carolyne Pickler, Hugo Beltrami, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 2181–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, 2016
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Within the framework of the PAGES NAm2k project, we estimated regional trends in the ground surface temperature change for the past 500 years in North America. The mean North American ground surface temperature history suggests a warming of 1.8 °C between preindustrial times and 2000. A regional analysis of mean temperature changes over the last 5 centuries shows that all regions experienced warming, but this warming displays large spatial variability and is more marked in high-latitude regions.
C. Pickler, H. Beltrami, and J.-C. Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 115–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-115-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-115-2016, 2016
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Norman Julius Steinert, Elena García-Bustamante, Philip de Vrese, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Stefan Hagemann, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, and Hugo Beltrami
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-44, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-44, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
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According to climate model estimates, the land stored 2 % of the system heat excess in the last decades, while observational studies show it was around 6 %. This difference stems from these models using too shallow land components that constrain land heat uptake. It was found that deepening the land component does not affect the surface temperature. This result can be used to derive land heat uptake estimates from different sources, which are much closer to previous observational reports.
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Thomas Schmid, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Cristina Vegas-Cañas, Norman Julius Steinert, Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Philipp de Vrese
SOIL, 10, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, 2024
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This work addresses air–ground temperature coupling and propagation into the subsurface in a mountainous area in central Spain using surface and subsurface data from six meteorological stations. Heat transfer of temperature changes at the ground surface occurs mainly by conduction controlled by thermal diffusivity of the subsurface, which varies with depth and time. A new methodology shows that near-surface diffusivity and soil moisture content changes with time are closely related.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
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Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
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Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Daniel Basualto, Andrés Tassara, Jonathan Lazo-Gil, Luis Franco-Marin, Carlos Cardona, Juan San Martín, Fernando Gil-Cruz, Marcela Calabi-Floddy, and Cristian Farías
Solid Earth, 14, 69–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-14-69-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-14-69-2023, 2023
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Infrequent eruptions of acidic magma are one of the most dangerous natural phenomena, but almost none of them have been witnessed by modern science. We present the first systematic characterization of seismicity recorded near an erupting acidic volcano (Cordón Caulle 2011). We define different phases of unrest and eruption, which combined with previous findings allows us to discuss the main processes associated with this type of violent eruption, with implications for their volcanic hazard.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Stephan Gruber, Almudena García-García, and J. Fidel González-Rouco
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7913–7932, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022, 2022
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Inversions of subsurface temperature profiles provide past long-term estimates of ground surface temperature histories and ground heat flux histories at timescales of decades to millennia. Theses estimates complement high-frequency proxy temperature reconstructions and are the basis for studying continental heat storage. We develop and release a new bootstrap method to derive meaningful confidence intervals for the average surface temperature and heat flux histories from any number of profiles.
Felipe Lobos-Roco, Oscar Hartogensis, Francisco Suárez, Ariadna Huerta-Viso, Imme Benedict, Alberto de la Fuente, and Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3709–3729, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3709-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3709-2022, 2022
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This research brings a multi-scale temporal analysis of evaporation in a saline lake of the Atacama Desert. Our findings reveal that evaporation is controlled differently depending on the timescale. Evaporation is controlled sub-diurnally by wind speed, regulated seasonally by radiation and modulated interannually by ENSO. Our research extends our understanding of evaporation, contributing to improving the climate change assessment and efficiency of water management in arid regions.
Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, J. Fidel González-Rouco, and Elena García-Bustamante
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 413–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-413-2022, 2022
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We study the sensitivity of a regional climate model to resolution and soil scheme changes. Our results show that the use of finer resolutions mainly affects precipitation outputs, particularly in summer due to changes in convective processes. Finer resolutions are associated with larger biases compared with observations. Changing the land surface model scheme affects the simulation of near-surface temperatures, yielding the lowest biases in mean temperature with the most complex soil scheme.
Felipe Lobos-Roco, Oscar Hartogensis, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Alberto de la Fuente, Ricardo Muñoz, José Rutllant, and Francisco Suárez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9125–9150, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9125-2021, 2021
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We investigate the influence of regional atmospheric circulation on the evaporation of a saline lake in the Altiplano region of the Atacama Desert through a field experiment and regional modeling. Our results show that evaporation is controlled by two regimes: (1) in the morning by local conditions with low evaporation rates and low wind speed and (2) in the afternoon with high evaporation rates and high wind speed. Afternoon winds are connected to the regional Pacific Ocean–Andes flow.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Joel Finnis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 581–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021, 2021
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The current radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is increasing the heat stored in the oceans, atmosphere, continental subsurface and cryosphere, with consequences for societies and ecosystems (e.g. sea level rise). We performed the first assessment of the ability of global climate models to represent such heat storage in the climate subsystems. Models are able to reproduce the observed atmosphere heat content, with biases in the simulation of heat content in the rest of components.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, J. Fidel González-Rouco, and Elena García-Bustamante
Clim. Past, 17, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-451-2021, 2021
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We provide new global estimates of changes in surface temperature, surface heat flux, and continental heat storage since preindustrial times from geothermal data. Our analysis includes new measurements and a more comprehensive description of uncertainties than previous studies. Results show higher continental heat storage than previously reported, with global land mean temperature changes of 1 K and subsurface heat gains of 12 ZJ during the last half of the 20th century.
Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Fidel González-Rouco, Elena García-Bustamante, and Joel Finnis
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5345–5366, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5345-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5345-2020, 2020
Ignacio Hermoso de Mendoza, Hugo Beltrami, Andrew H. MacDougall, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1663–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1663-2020, 2020
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We study the impact that the thickness of the subsurface and the geothermal gradient have in land models for climate simulations. To do this, we modify the Community Land Model version 4.5. In a scenario of rising atmospheric temperatures, the temperature of an insufficiently deep subsurface rises faster than it would in the real land. For the model, this produces faster permafrost thawing and increased emissions of land carbon to the atmosphere.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, Eduardo Zorita, and Fernando Jaume-Santero
Clim. Past, 15, 1099–1111, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019, 2019
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A database of North American long-term ground surface temperatures, from approximately 1300 CE to 1700 CE, was assembled from geothermal data. These temperatures are useful for studying the future stability of permafrost, as well as for evaluating simulations of preindustrial climate that may help to improve estimates of climate models’ equilibrium climate sensitivity. The database will be made available to the climate science community.
Carolyne Pickler, Hugo Beltrami, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 2215–2227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2215-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2215-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The ground surface temperature histories of the past 500 years were reconstructed at 10 sites in northern Ontario and Quebec. The regions experienced a warming of ~1–2 K for the past 150 years, agreeing with borehole reconstructions for southern Ontario and Quebec and proxy data. Permafrost maps locate the sites in a region of discontinuous permafrost but our reconstructions suggest that the potential for permafrost was minimal to absent over the past 500 years.
Fernando Jaume-Santero, Carolyne Pickler, Hugo Beltrami, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 2181–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Within the framework of the PAGES NAm2k project, we estimated regional trends in the ground surface temperature change for the past 500 years in North America. The mean North American ground surface temperature history suggests a warming of 1.8 °C between preindustrial times and 2000. A regional analysis of mean temperature changes over the last 5 centuries shows that all regions experienced warming, but this warming displays large spatial variability and is more marked in high-latitude regions.
Ignacio Hermoso de Mendoza, Jean-Claude Mareschal, and Hugo Beltrami
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-116, 2016
Preprint retracted
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We simulated ice flow and heat conduction at the Dome C site in Antarctica with a 1D numerical model, using as inputs past conditions at the site over the past 800Ky. Several model parameters (basal heat flux, flux function parameter, ice surface velocity and air-ice temperature offset) are set as free parameters whose values yield different temperature profiles that we can compare to that at Dome C. Using this criteria, we estimate these free parameters through Montecarlo methods.
C. Pickler, H. Beltrami, and J.-C. Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 115–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-115-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-115-2016, 2016
H. Beltrami, G. S. Matharoo, L. Tarasov, V. Rath, and J. E. Smerdon
Clim. Past, 10, 1693–1706, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1693-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1693-2014, 2014
P. Ortega, M. Montoya, F. González-Rouco, H. Beltrami, and D. Swingedouw
Clim. Past, 9, 547–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-547-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-547-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Centennial-Decadal
A past and present perspective on the European summer vapor pressure deficit
Drought reconstruction since 1796 CE based on tree-ring widths in the upper Heilongjiang (Amur) River basin in Northeast Asia and its linkage to Pacific Ocean climate variability
Drought increase since the mid-20th century in the northern South American Altiplano revealed by a 389-year precipitation record
Climate change detection and attribution using observed and simulated tree-ring width
Integrating plant wax abundance and isotopes for paleo-vegetation and paleoclimate reconstructions: a multi-source mixing model using a Bayesian framework
Do Southern Hemisphere tree rings record past volcanic events? A case study from New Zealand
Prospects for dendroanatomy in paleoclimatology – a case study on Picea engelmannii from the Canadian Rockies
Reconstructing past hydrology of eastern Canadian boreal catchments using clastic varved sediments and hydro-climatic modelling: 160 years of fluvial inflows
A 2600-year summer climate reconstruction in central Japan by integrating tree-ring stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes
An overview on isotopic divergences – causes for instability of tree-ring isotopes and climate correlations
Proxy surrogate reconstructions for Europe and the estimation of their uncertainties
The 4.2 ka event in the central Mediterranean: new data from a Corchia speleothem (Apuan Alps, central Italy)
A 900-year New England temperature reconstruction from in situ seasonally produced branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs)
Leaf wax n-alkane distributions record ecological changes during the Younger Dryas at Trzechowskie paleolake (northern Poland) without temporal delay
Ground surface temperature reconstruction for the last 500 years obtained from permafrost temperatures observed in the SHARE STELVIO Borehole, Italian Alps
Decreasing Indian summer monsoon on the northern Indian sub-continent during the last 180 years: evidence from five tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotope chronologies
Spatio-temporal variability of Arctic summer temperatures over the past 2 millennia
Palaeoclimate significance of speleothems in crystalline rocks: a test case from the Late Glacial and early Holocene (Vinschgau, northern Italy)
Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era
Climate signals in a multispecies tree-ring network from central and southern Italy and reconstruction of the late summer temperatures since the early 1700s
Low-resolution Australasian palaeoclimate records of the last 2000 years
Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years
Experiments based on blue intensity for reconstructing North Pacific temperatures along the Gulf of Alaska
Spring temperature variability over Turkey since 1800 CE reconstructed from a broad network of tree-ring data
On the spatial and temporal variability of ENSO precipitation and drought teleconnection in mainland Southeast Asia
Interannual and (multi-)decadal variability in the sedimentary BIT index of Lake Challa, East Africa, over the past 2200 years: assessment of the precipitation proxy
A tree-ring perspective on temporal changes in the frequency and intensity of hydroclimatic extremes in the territory of the Czech Republic since 761 AD
Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: a tree-ring-based reconstruction
Optimal ranking regime analysis of TreeFlow dendrohydrological reconstructions
New insights into the reconstructed temperature in Portugal over the last 400 years
Expressions of climate perturbations in western Ugandan crater lake sediment records during the last 1000 years
Blue intensity and density from northern Fennoscandian tree rings, exploring the potential to improve summer temperature reconstructions with earlywood information
Reconstruction of the March–August PDSI since 1703 AD based on tree rings of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) in the Lingkong Mountain, southeast Chinese loess Plateau
Forward modelling of tree-ring width and comparison with a global network of tree-ring chronologies
Reconstruction of northeast Asia spring temperature 1784–1990
COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models (COPRA)
A 560 yr summer temperature reconstruction for the Western Mediterranean basin based on stable carbon isotopes from Pinus nigra ssp. laricio (Corsica/France)
Isotopic and lithologic variations of one precisely-dated stalagmite across the Medieval/LIA period from Heilong Cave, central China
Modelling and climatic interpretation of the length fluctuations of Glaciar Frías (north Patagonian Andes, Argentina) 1639–2009 AD
A review of the South American monsoon history as recorded in stable isotopic proxies over the past two millennia
Identification of climatic state with limited proxy data
Multi-century tree-ring based reconstruction of the Neuquén River streamflow, northern Patagonia, Argentina
Extreme pointer years in tree-ring records of Central Spain as evidence of climatic events and the eruption of the Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru, 1600 AD)
Precipitation changes in the South American Altiplano since 1300 AD reconstructed by tree-rings
Fire history in western Patagonia from paired tree-ring fire-scar and charcoal records
Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries
Viorica Nagavciuc, Simon L. L. Michel, Daniel F. Balting, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David N. Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Clim. Past, 20, 573–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, 2024
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The main aim of this paper is to present the summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) reconstruction dataset for the last 400 years over Europe based on δ18O records by using a random forest approach. We provide both a spatial and a temporal long-term perspective on the past summer VPD and new insights into the relationship between summer VPD and large-scale atmospheric circulation. This is the first gridded reconstruction of the European summer VPD over the past 400 years.
Yang Xu, Heli Zhang, Feng Chen, Shijie Wang, Mao Hu, Martín Hadad, and Fidel Roig
Clim. Past, 19, 2079–2092, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2079-2023, 2023
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We reconstructed the monthly mean self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index for May–July in the upper Heilongjiang (Amur) Basin since 1796. Our analysis suggests that the dry/wet variability in this basin is related to several large-scale climate stresses and atmospheric circulation patterns (El Niño–Southern Oscillation). The cause of drought is primarily a reduction in advective water vapor transport, rather than precipitation circulation processes.
Mariano S. Morales, Doris B. Crispín-DelaCruz, Claudio Álvarez, Duncan A. Christie, M. Eugenia Ferrero, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Ricardo Villalba, Anthony Guerra, Ginette Ticse-Otarola, Ernesto C. Rodríguez-Ramírez, Rosmery LLocclla-Martínez, Joali Sanchez-Ferrer, and Edilson J. Requena-Rojas
Clim. Past, 19, 457–476, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-457-2023, 2023
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In this study, we develop the first tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction for the northern South American Altiplano back to 1625 CE. We established that the occurrence rate of extreme dry events together with a shift in mean dry conditions for the late 20th–beginning of the 21st century is unprecedented in the past 389 years, consistent with other paleoclimatic records. Our reconstruction provides valuable information about El Niño–Southern Oscillation influences on local precipitation.
Jörg Franke, Michael N. Evans, Andrew Schurer, and Gabriele C. Hegerl
Clim. Past, 18, 2583–2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2583-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2583-2022, 2022
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Detection and attribution is a statistical method to evaluate if external factors or random variability have caused climatic changes. We use for the first time a comparison of simulated and observed tree-ring width that circumvents many limitations of previous studies relying on climate reconstructions. We attribute variability in temperature-limited trees to strong volcanic eruptions and for the first time detect a spatial pattern in the growth of moisture-sensitive trees after eruptions.
Deming Yang and Gabriel J. Bowen
Clim. Past, 18, 2181–2210, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2181-2022, 2022
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Plant wax lipid ratios and their isotopes are used in vegetation and paleoclimate reconstructions. While studies often use either type of data, both can inform the mixing pattern of source plants. We developed a statistic model that evaluates ratios and isotopes together. Through case studies, we showed that the approach allows more detailed interpretations of vegetation and paleoclimate than traditional methods. This evolving framework can include more geochemical tracers in the future.
Philippa A. Higgins, Jonathan G. Palmer, Chris S. M. Turney, Martin S. Andersen, and Fiona Johnson
Clim. Past, 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1169-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1169-2022, 2022
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We studied eight New Zealand tree species and identified differences in their responses to large volcanic eruptions. The response is dependent on the species and how well it can tolerate stress, but substantial within-species differences are also observed depending on site factors, including altitude and exposure. This has important implications for tree-ring temperature reconstructions because site selection and compositing methods can change the magnitude of observed volcanic cooling.
Kristina Seftigen, Marina V. Fonti, Brian Luckman, Miloš Rydval, Petter Stridbeck, Georg von Arx, Rob Wilson, and Jesper Björklund
Clim. Past, 18, 1151–1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1151-2022, 2022
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New proxies and improvements in existing methodologies are needed to advance paleoclimate research. This study explored dendroanatomy, the analysis of wood anatomical parameters in dated tree rings, of Engelmann spruce from the Columbia Icefield area, Canada, as a proxy of past temperatures. Our new parameters compare favorably with state of the art proxy parameters from X-ray and visible light techniques, particularly with respect to the temporal stability of the temperature signal.
Antoine Gagnon-Poiré, Pierre Brigode, Pierre Francus, David Fortin, Patrick Lajeunesse, Hugues Dorion, and Annie-Pier Trottier
Clim. Past, 17, 653–673, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-653-2021, 2021
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A very high quality 160-year-long annually laminated (varved) sediment sequence of fluvial origin was recently discovered in an especially deep lake in Labrador. Each varve represents 1 hydrological year. A significant relation between varves' physical parameters (i.e., thickness and grain size extracted from each annual lamination) and river discharge instrumental observations provided the opportunity to develop regional discharge reconstructions beyond the instrumental period.
Takeshi Nakatsuka, Masaki Sano, Zhen Li, Chenxi Xu, Akane Tsushima, Yuki Shigeoka, Kenjiro Sho, Keiko Ohnishi, Minoru Sakamoto, Hiromasa Ozaki, Noboru Higami, Nanae Nakao, Misao Yokoyama, and Takumi Mitsutani
Clim. Past, 16, 2153–2172, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2153-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2153-2020, 2020
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In general, it is not easy to reconstruct past climate variations over a wide band of frequencies using a single proxy. Here, we propose a new method to reconstruct past summer climate seamlessly from annual to millennial timescales by integrating tree-ring cellulose oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios. The result can be utilized to investigate various scales of climatological phenomena in the past and climate–society relationships in long human history.
Martine M. Savard and Valérie Daux
Clim. Past, 16, 1223–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1223-2020, 2020
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Climatic reconstructions based on tree-ring isotopic series convey key information on past conditions prevailing in forested regions. However, in some cases, the relations between isotopes and climate appear unstable over time, generating isotopic divergences. Former reviews have thoroughly discussed the divergence concept for tree-ring width but not for isotopes. Here we present a synopsis of the isotopic divergence problem and suggest collaborative work for improving climatic reconstructions.
Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 16, 341–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-341-2020, 2020
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One can use the similarity between sparse indirect observations of past climates and full fields of simulated climates to learn more about past climates. Here, we detail how one can compute uncertainty estimates for such reconstructions of past climates. This highlights the ambiguity of the reconstruction. We further show that such a reconstruction for European summer temperature agrees well with a more common approach.
Ilaria Isola, Giovanni Zanchetta, Russell N. Drysdale, Eleonora Regattieri, Monica Bini, Petra Bajo, John C. Hellstrom, Ilaria Baneschi, Piero Lionello, Jon Woodhead, and Alan Greig
Clim. Past, 15, 135–151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-135-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-135-2019, 2019
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To understand the natural variability in the climate system, the hydrological aspect (dry and wet conditions) is particularly important for its impact on our societies. The reconstruction of past precipitation regimes can provide a useful tool for forecasting future climate changes. We use multi-proxy time series (oxygen and carbon isotopes, trace elements) from a speleothem to investigate circulation pattern variations and seasonality effects during the dry 4.2 ka event in central Italy.
Daniel R. Miller, M. Helen Habicht, Benjamin A. Keisling, Isla S. Castañeda, and Raymond S. Bradley
Clim. Past, 14, 1653–1667, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1653-2018, 2018
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We measured biomarker production over a year in a small inland lake in the northeastern USA. Understanding biomarkers in the modern environment helps us improve reconstructions of past climate from lake sediment records. We use these results to interpret a 900-year decadally resolved temperature record from this lake. Our record highlights multi-decadal oscillations in temperature superimposed on a long-term cooling trend, providing novel insight into climate dynamics of the region.
Bernhard Aichner, Florian Ott, Michał Słowiński, Agnieszka M. Noryśkiewicz, Achim Brauer, and Dirk Sachse
Clim. Past, 14, 1607–1624, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1607-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1607-2018, 2018
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Abundances of plant biomarkers are compared with pollen data in a 3000-year climate archive covering the Late Glacial to Holocene transition in northern Poland. Both parameters synchronously show the rapid onset (12680–12600 yr BP) and termination
(11580–11490 yr BP) of the Younger Dryas cold interval in the study area. This demonstrates the suitability of such proxies to record pronounced changes in vegetation cover without significant delay.
Mauro Guglielmin, Marco Donatelli, Matteo Semplice, and Stefano Serra Capizzano
Clim. Past, 14, 709–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-709-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-709-2018, 2018
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The reconstruction of ground surface temperature for the last 500 years, obtained at the deepest mountain permafrost borehole of the world (Stelvio Pass, 3000 m a.s.l., Italian Alps), is presented here. The main difference with respect to MAAT reconstructions obtained through other proxy data for all of Europe relates to post Little Ice Age (LIA) events. Indeed at this site a stronger cooling of ca 1 °C between 1940 and 1989 and even a more abrupt warming between 1990 and 2011 was detected.
Chenxi Xu, Masaki Sano, Ashok Priyadarshan Dimri, Rengaswamy Ramesh, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Feng Shi, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past, 14, 653–664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-653-2018, 2018
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We have constructed a regional tree ring cellulose oxygen isotope record using a total of five chronologies obtained from the Himalaya. Centennial changes in the regional tree ring record indicate a trend of weakened Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intensity since 1820. Decreasing ISM activity is also observed in various high-resolution ISM records from southwest China and Southeast Asia, and may be the result of reduced land–ocean thermal contrasts since 1820.
Johannes P. Werner, Dmitry V. Divine, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Tine Nilsen, and Pierre Francus
Clim. Past, 14, 527–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-527-2018, 2018
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We present a new gridded Arctic summer temperature reconstruction back to the first millennium CE. Our method respects the age uncertainties of the data, which results in a more precise reconstruction.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented.
Gabriella Koltai, Hai Cheng, and Christoph Spötl
Clim. Past, 14, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-369-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-369-2018, 2018
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Here we present a multi-proxy study of flowstones in fractures of crystalline rocks with the aim of assessing the palaeoclimate significance of this new type of speleothem archive. Our results indicate a high degree of spatial heterogeneity, whereby changes in speleothem mineralogy and carbon isotope composition are likely governed by aquifer-internal processes. In contrast, the oxygen isotope composition reflects first-order climate variability.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
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Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Giovanni Leonelli, Anna Coppola, Maria Cristina Salvatore, Carlo Baroni, Giovanna Battipaglia, Tiziana Gentilesca, Francesco Ripullone, Marco Borghetti, Emanuele Conte, Roberto Tognetti, Marco Marchetti, Fabio Lombardi, Michele Brunetti, Maurizio Maugeri, Manuela Pelfini, Paolo Cherubini, Antonello Provenzale, and Valter Maggi
Clim. Past, 13, 1451–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1451-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1451-2017, 2017
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We analyze a tree-ring network from several sites distributed along the Italian Peninsula with the aims of detecting common climate drivers of tree growth and of reconstructing the past climate. We detect the main climatic drivers modulating tree-ring width (RW) and tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) and we reconstruct late summer temperatures since the early 1700s using a MXD chronology: this reconstruction is representative of a wide area around the Italian Peninsula.
Bronwyn C. Dixon, Jonathan J. Tyler, Andrew M. Lorrey, Ian D. Goodwin, Joëlle Gergis, and Russell N. Drysdale
Clim. Past, 13, 1403–1433, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1403-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1403-2017, 2017
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Existing sedimentary palaeoclimate records in Australasia were assessed for suitability for examining the last 2 millennia. A small number of high-quality records were identified, and new Bayesian age models were constructed for each record. Findings suggest that Australasian record chronologies and confidence in proxy–climate relationships are the main factors limiting appropriate data for examining Common Era climate variability. Recommendations for improving data accessibility are provided.
Jennifer R. Marlon, Neil Pederson, Connor Nolan, Simon Goring, Bryan Shuman, Ann Robertson, Robert Booth, Patrick J. Bartlein, Melissa A. Berke, Michael Clifford, Edward Cook, Ann Dieffenbacher-Krall, Michael C. Dietze, Amy Hessl, J. Bradford Hubeny, Stephen T. Jackson, Jeremiah Marsicek, Jason McLachlan, Cary J. Mock, David J. P. Moore, Jonathan Nichols, Dorothy Peteet, Kevin Schaefer, Valerie Trouet, Charles Umbanhowar, John W. Williams, and Zicheng Yu
Clim. Past, 13, 1355–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, 2017
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To improve our understanding of paleoclimate in the northeastern (NE) US, we compiled data from pollen, tree rings, lake levels, testate amoeba from bogs, and other proxies from the last 3000 years. The paleoclimate synthesis supports long-term cooling until the 1800s and reveals an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions around 550–750 CE. Evidence suggests the region is now becoming warmer and wetter, but more calibrated data are needed, especially to capture multidecadal variability.
Rob Wilson, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Rose Oelkers, Greg Wiles, Kevin Anchukaitis, and Nicole Davi
Clim. Past, 13, 1007–1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1007-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1007-2017, 2017
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Blue intensity shows great potential for reconstructing past summer temperatures from conifer trees growing at high latitude or the treeline. However, conifer species that express a strong colour difference between the heartwood and sapwood can impart a long-term trend bias in the resultant reconstructions. Herein, we highlight this issue using eight mountain hemlock sites across the Gulf of Alaska and explore how a non-biased reconstruction of past temperature could be derived using such data.
Nesibe Köse, H. Tuncay Güner, Grant L. Harley, and Joel Guiot
Clim. Past, 13, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1-2017, 2017
Timo A. Räsänen, Ville Lindgren, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Brendan M. Buckley, and Matti Kummu
Clim. Past, 12, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1889-2016, 2016
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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is linked to severe droughts and floods in mainland Southeast Asia. This research provides a more accurate and uniform picture of the spatio-temporal effects of ENSO on precipitation (1980–2013) and improves our understanding of long-term (1650–2004) ENSO teleconnection and its variability over the study area. The results reveal not only recognisable spatio-temporal patterns but also a high degree of variability and non-stationarity in the effects of ENSO.
Laura K. Buckles, Dirk Verschuren, Johan W. H. Weijers, Christine Cocquyt, Maarten Blaauw, and Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté
Clim. Past, 12, 1243–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1243-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1243-2016, 2016
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This paper discusses the underlying mechanisms of a method that uses specific membrane lipids present in the sediments of an African tropical lake to determine past changes in rainfall. With this method, past dry periods in the last 25 000 years can be assessed.
P. Dobrovolný, M. Rybníček, T. Kolář, R. Brázdil, M. Trnka, and U. Büntgen
Clim. Past, 11, 1453–1466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1453-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1453-2015, 2015
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A new data set of 3194 oak (Quercus spp.) ring width samples collected across the Czech Republic and covering the past 1250 years was analysed. The temporal distribution of negative and positive TRW extremes occurring is regular with no indication of clustering. Negative TRW extremes coincided with above-average March-May and June-August temperature means and below-average precipitation totals. Positive extremes coincided with higher summer precipitation, while temperatures were mostly normal.
M. S. Morales, J. Carilla, H. R. Grau, and R. Villalba
Clim. Past, 11, 1139–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1139-2015, 2015
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A 601-year lake area reconstruction in NW Argentina and SW Bolivia, characterized the occurrence of annual to multi-decadal lake area fluctuations and its main oscillation modes of variability. Our reconstruction points out that the late 20th century decrease in lake area was exceptional over the period 1407–2007. A persistent negative trend in lake area is clear in the reconstruction and consistent with glacier retreat and other climate proxies from the Altiplano and the tropical Andes.
S. A. Mauget
Clim. Past, 11, 1107–1125, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1107-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1107-2015, 2015
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A new approach to time series analysis - the ORR method - was used to evaluate reconstructed western US streamflow records during 1500-2007. This method shows an interesting pattern of alternating drought and wet periods during the late 16th and 17th centuries, a period with relatively few drought or wet periods during the 18th century, and the and the reappearance of alternating dry and wet periods during the 19th and early 20th centuries.
J. A. Santos, M. F. Carneiro, A. Correia, M. J. Alcoforado, E. Zorita, and J. J. Gómez-Navarro
Clim. Past, 11, 825–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-825-2015, 2015
K. Mills, D. B. Ryves, N. J. Anderson, C. L. Bryant, and J. J. Tyler
Clim. Past, 10, 1581–1601, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1581-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1581-2014, 2014
J. A. Björklund, B. E. Gunnarson, K. Seftigen, J. Esper, and H. W. Linderholm
Clim. Past, 10, 877–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-877-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-877-2014, 2014
Q. Cai, Y. Liu, Y. Lei, G. Bao, and B. Sun
Clim. Past, 10, 509–521, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-509-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-509-2014, 2014
P. Breitenmoser, S. Brönnimann, and D. Frank
Clim. Past, 10, 437–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-437-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-437-2014, 2014
M. Ohyama, H. Yonenobu, J.-N. Choi, W.-K. Park, M. Hanzawa, and M. Suzuki
Clim. Past, 9, 261–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-261-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-261-2013, 2013
S. F. M. Breitenbach, K. Rehfeld, B. Goswami, J. U. L. Baldini, H. E. Ridley, D. J. Kennett, K. M. Prufer, V. V. Aquino, Y. Asmerom, V. J. Polyak, H. Cheng, J. Kurths, and N. Marwan
Clim. Past, 8, 1765–1779, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1765-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1765-2012, 2012
S. Szymczak, M. M. Joachimski, A. Bräuning, T. Hetzer, and J. Kuhlemann
Clim. Past, 8, 1737–1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1737-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1737-2012, 2012
Y. F. Cui, Y. J. Wang, H. Cheng, K. Zhao, and X. G. Kong
Clim. Past, 8, 1541–1550, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1541-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1541-2012, 2012
P. W. Leclercq, P. Pitte, R. H. Giesen, M. H. Masiokas, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 8, 1385–1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1385-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1385-2012, 2012
M. Vuille, S. J. Burns, B. L. Taylor, F. W. Cruz, B. W. Bird, M. B. Abbott, L. C. Kanner, H. Cheng, and V. F. Novello
Clim. Past, 8, 1309–1321, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1309-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1309-2012, 2012
J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves
Clim. Past, 8, 1141–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1141-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1141-2012, 2012
I. A. Mundo, M. H. Masiokas, R. Villalba, M. S. Morales, R. Neukom, C. Le Quesne, R. B. Urrutia, and A. Lara
Clim. Past, 8, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-815-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-815-2012, 2012
M. Génova
Clim. Past, 8, 751–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-751-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-751-2012, 2012
M. S. Morales, D. A. Christie, R. Villalba, J. Argollo, J. Pacajes, J. S. Silva, C. A. Alvarez, J. C. Llancabure, and C. C. Soliz Gamboa
Clim. Past, 8, 653–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-653-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-653-2012, 2012
A. Holz, S. Haberle, T. T. Veblen, R. De Pol-Holz, and J. Southon
Clim. Past, 8, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-451-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-451-2012, 2012
F. C. Ljungqvist, P. J. Krusic, G. Brattström, and H. S. Sundqvist
Clim. Past, 8, 227–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-227-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-227-2012, 2012
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Short summary
We compiled 31 temperature–depth profiles to reconstruct the ground surface temperature of the last 500 years in northern Chile. They suggest that the region experienced a cooling from 1850 to 1980 followed by a warming of 1.9 K. The cooling could coincide with a cooling interval in 1960. The warming is greater than that of proxy reconstructions for nearby regions and model simulations. These differences could be due to differences in spatial and temporal resolution between data and models.
We compiled 31 temperature–depth profiles to reconstruct the ground surface temperature of the...
