Articles | Volume 14, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1499-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1499-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Oct 2018
Research article |
| 22 Oct 2018
Extratropical cyclone statistics during the last millennium and the 21st century
Christoph C. Raible
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern,
Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland
Martina Messmer
Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern,
Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland
Flavio Lehner
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Thomas F. Stocker
Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern,
Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland
Richard Blender
Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
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Amaelle Landais, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Emilie Capron, Petra M. Langebroek, Pepijn Bakker, Emma J. Stone, Niklaus Merz, Christoph C. Raible, Hubertus Fischer, Anaïs Orsi, Frédéric Prié, Bo Vinther, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
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J. J. Gómez-Navarro, C. C. Raible, and S. Dierer
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S. Muthers, F. Arfeuille, C. C. Raible, and E. Rozanov
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M. Messmer, J. J. Gómez-Navarro, and C. C. Raible
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J. J. Gómez-Navarro, O. Bothe, S. Wagner, E. Zorita, J. P. Werner, J. Luterbacher, C. C. Raible, and J. P Montávez
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F. Lehner, F. Joos, C. C. Raible, J. Mignot, A. Born, K. M. Keller, and T. F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 411–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, 2015
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D. Zanchettin, O. Bothe, F. Lehner, P. Ortega, C. C. Raible, and D. Swingedouw
Clim. Past, 11, 939–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-939-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-939-2015, 2015
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A discrepancy exists between reconstructed and simulated Pacific North American pattern (PNA) features during the early 19th century. Pseudo-reconstructions demonstrate that the available PNA reconstruction is potentially skillful but also potentially affected by a number of sources of uncertainty and deficiencies especially at multidecadal and centennial timescales. Simulations and reconstructions can be reconciled by attributing the reconstructed PNA features to internal variability.
S. Muthers, J. G. Anet, A. Stenke, C. C. Raible, E. Rozanov, S. Brönnimann, T. Peter, F. X. Arfeuille, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2157–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, 2014
K. M. Keller, F. Joos, and C. C. Raible
Biogeosciences, 11, 3647–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, 2014
N. Merz, A. Born, C. C. Raible, H. Fischer, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 10, 1221–1238, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1221-2014, 2014
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. V. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, W. Schmutz, and T. Peter
Clim. Past, 10, 921–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014
C. C. Raible, F. Lehner, J. F. González-Rouco, and L. Fernández-Donado
Clim. Past, 10, 537–550, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-537-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-537-2014, 2014
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, T. Peter, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10951–10967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, 2013
N. Merz, C. C. Raible, H. Fischer, V. Varma, M. Prange, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 9, 2433–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, 2013
Jonathan Robert Buzan, Emmanuele Russo, Woon Mi Kim, and Christoph C. Raible
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, 2023
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
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Paleoclimate is used to test climate models to verify that simulations accurately project both future and past climate states. We present fully coupled climate sensitivity simulations of Preindustrial, Last Glacial Maximum, and the Quaternary climate periods. We show distinct climate states derived from non-linear responses to ice sheet heights and orbits. The implication is that as paleo proxy data become more reliable, they may constrain the specific climate states produced by climate models.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, and Christoph C. Raible
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-119, 2023
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
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In this study, we investigate circulation patterns associated with Mediterranean droughts during the last millennium using global climate simulations. Different circulation patterns driven by internal interactions in the climate system contribute to the occurrence of droughts in the Mediterranean. The detected patterns are different between the models, and this difference can be a potential source of uncertainties in model-proxy comparison and future projections of Mediterranean droughts.
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
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In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest of the US and Canada saw record temperatures far exceeding those previously observed. This attribution study found such a severe heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Assuming no nonlinear interactions, such events have become at least 150 times more common, are about 2 °C hotter and will become even more common as warming continues. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare society.
Iana Strigunova, Richard Blender, Frank Lunkeit, and Nedjeljka Žagar
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1399–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, 2022
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We show that the Eurasian heat waves (HWs) have signatures in the global circulation. We present changes in the probability density functions (PDFs) of energy anomalies in the zonal-mean state and in the Rossby waves at different zonal scales in relation to the changes in intramonthly variability. The skewness of the PDF of planetary-scale Rossby waves is shown to increase during HWs, while their intramonthly variability is reduced, a process referred to as blocking.
Robert Mulvaney, Eric William Wolff, Mackenzie Grieman, Helene Hoffmann, Jack Humby, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Rachael Rhodes, Isobel Rowell, Frédéric Parrenin, Loïc Schmidely, Hubertus Fischer, Thomas Stocker, Marcus Christl, Raimund Muscheler, Amaelle Landais, and Frédéric Prié
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-84, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-84, 2022
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We present an age scale for a new ice core drilled at Skytrain Ice Rise, an ice rise facing the Ronne Ice Shelf in Antarctica. Various measurements in the ice and air phases are used to match the ice core to other Antarctic cores that have already been dated. The 651 m ice core includes ice that is confidently dated to the last interglacial, 126,000 years ago. Older ice is found deeper down, but there are flow disturbances in the deeper ice.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, 2022
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We investigate the sensitivity of the glacial Alpine hydro-climate to northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet changes. We perform sensitivity simulations of up to 2 km horizontal resolution over the Alps for glacial periods. The findings demonstrate that northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet topography are important role in regulating the Alpine hydro-climate and permits a better understanding of the Alpine precipitation patterns at glacial times.
Helen Mackay, Gill Plunkett, Britta J. L. Jensen, Thomas J. Aubry, Christophe Corona, Woon Mi Kim, Matthew Toohey, Michael Sigl, Markus Stoffel, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Christoph Raible, Matthew S. M. Bolton, Joseph G. Manning, Timothy P. Newfield, Nicola Di Cosmo, Francis Ludlow, Conor Kostick, Zhen Yang, Lisa Coyle McClung, Matthew Amesbury, Alistair Monteath, Paul D. M. Hughes, Pete G. Langdon, Dan Charman, Robert Booth, Kimberley L. Davies, Antony Blundell, and Graeme T. Swindles
Clim. Past, 18, 1475–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, 2022
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We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant Northern Hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal response is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption even when it is precisely dated.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
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In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Santos J. González-Rojí, Martina Messmer, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2859–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, 2022
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Different configurations of physics parameterizations of a regional climate model are tested over southern Peru at fine resolution. The most challenging regions compared to observational data are the slopes of the Andes. Model configurations for Europe and East Africa are not perfectly suitable for southern Peru. The experiment with the Stony Brook University microphysics scheme and the Grell–Freitas cumulus parameterization provides the most accurate results over Madre de Dios.
Tobias Erhardt, Matthias Bigler, Urs Federer, Gideon Gfeller, Daiana Leuenberger, Olivia Stowasser, Regine Röthlisberger, Simon Schüpbach, Urs Ruth, Birthe Twarloh, Anna Wegner, Kumiko Goto-Azuma, Takayuki Kuramoto, Helle A. Kjær, Paul T. Vallelonga, Marie-Louise Siggaard-Andersen, Margareta E. Hansson, Ailsa K. Benton, Louise G. Fleet, Rob Mulvaney, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nerilie Abram, Thomas F. Stocker, and Hubertus Fischer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1215–1231, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1215-2022, 2022
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The datasets presented alongside this manuscript contain high-resolution concentration measurements of chemical impurities in deep ice cores, NGRIP and NEEM, from the Greenland ice sheet. The impurities originate from the deposition of aerosols to the surface of the ice sheet and are influenced by source, transport and deposition processes. Together, these records contain detailed, multi-parameter records of past climate variability over the last glacial period.
Jiamei Lin, Anders Svensson, Christine S. Hvidberg, Johannes Lohmann, Steffen Kristiansen, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Eliza Cook, Helle Astrid Kjær, Bo M. Vinther, Hubertus Fischer, Thomas Stocker, Michael Sigl, Matthias Bigler, Mirko Severi, Rita Traversi, and Robert Mulvaney
Clim. Past, 18, 485–506, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-485-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-485-2022, 2022
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We employ acidity records from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores to estimate the emission strength, frequency and climatic forcing for large volcanic eruptions from the last half of the last glacial period. A total of 25 volcanic eruptions are found to be larger than any eruption in the last 2500 years, and we identify more eruptions than obtained from geological evidence. Towards the end of the glacial period, there is a notable increase in volcanic activity observed for Greenland.
Woon Mi Kim, Richard Blender, Michael Sigl, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 2031–2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021, 2021
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To understand the natural characteristics and future changes of the global extreme daily precipitation, it is necessary to explore the long-term characteristics of extreme daily precipitation. Here, we used climate simulations to analyze the characteristics and long-term changes of extreme precipitation during the past 3351 years. Our findings indicate that extreme precipitation in the past is associated with internal climate variability and regional surface temperatures.
Frerk Pöppelmeier, David J. Janssen, Samuel L. Jaccard, and Thomas F. Stocker
Biogeosciences, 18, 5447–5463, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5447-2021, 2021
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Chromium (Cr) is a redox-sensitive element that holds promise as a tracer of ocean oxygenation and biological activity. We here implemented the oxidation states Cr(III) and Cr(VI) in the Bern3D model to investigate the processes that shape the global Cr distribution. We find a Cr ocean residence time of 5–8 kyr and that the benthic source dominates the tracer budget. Further, regional model–data mismatches suggest strong Cr removal in oxygen minimum zones and a spatially variable benthic source.
Christina Heinze-Deml, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, and Nicolai Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4977–4999, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4977-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4977-2021, 2021
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Quantifying dynamical and thermodynamical components of regional precipitation change is a key challenge in climate science. We introduce a novel statistical model (Latent Linear Adjustment Autoencoder) that combines the flexibility of deep neural networks with the robustness advantages of linear regression. The method enables estimation of the contribution of a coarse-scale atmospheric circulation proxy to daily precipitation at high resolution and in a spatially coherent manner.
Loïc Schmidely, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jochen Schmitt, Juhyeong Han, Lucas Silva, Jinwha Shin, Fortunat Joos, Jérôme Chappellaz, Hubertus Fischer, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 17, 1627–1643, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1627-2021, 2021
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Using ancient gas trapped in polar glaciers, we reconstructed the atmospheric concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide over the penultimate deglaciation to study their response to major climate changes. We show this deglaciation to be characterized by modes of methane and nitrous oxide variability that are also found during the last deglaciation and glacial cycle.
Folmer Krikken, Flavio Lehner, Karsten Haustein, Igor Drobyshev, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2169–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021, 2021
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In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forest fires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from a meteorological perspective. This is done by studying observationally constrained data and multiple climate models. We find a small reduced probability of such events, based on reanalyses, but a small increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust increase in the risk for such events in the future, based on climate models.
Patricio Velasquez, Jed O. Kaplan, Martina Messmer, Patrick Ludwig, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 1161–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, 2021
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This study assesses the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks for European climate. We performed an asynchronously coupled experiment that combined a global climate model (~ 100 km), a regional climate model (18 km), and a dynamic vegetation model (18 km). Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. The regional climate is significantly influenced by land cover.
Martina Messmer, Santos J. González-Rojí, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2691–2711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, 2021
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Sensitivity experiments with the WRF model are run to find an optimal parameterization setup for precipitation around Mount Kenya at a scale that resolves convection (1 km). Precipitation is compared against many weather stations and gridded observational data sets. Both the temporal correlation of precipitation sums and pattern correlations show that fewer nests lead to a more constrained simulation with higher correlation. The Grell–Freitas cumulus scheme obtains the most accurate results.
Woon Mi Kim and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 887–911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021, 2021
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The analysis of the dynamics of western central Mediterranean droughts for 850–2099 CE in the Community Earth System Model indicates that past Mediterranean droughts were driven by the internal variability. This internal variability is more important during the initial years of droughts. During the transition years, the longevity of droughts is defined by the land–atmosphere feedbacks. In the future, this land–atmosphere feedbacks are intensified, causing a constant dryness over the region.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Folmer Krikken, Sophie Lewis, Nicholas J. Leach, Flavio Lehner, Kate R. Saunders, Michiel van Weele, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, David Wallom, Sarah Sparrow, Julie Arrighi, Roop K. Singh, Maarten K. van Aalst, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Robert Vautard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, 2021
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Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
Frerk Pöppelmeier, Jeemijn Scheen, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 17, 615–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-615-2021, 2021
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The stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) critically depends on its mean state. We simulate the response of the AMOC to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations under different glacial boundary conditions. We find that a closed Bering Strait greatly increases the AMOC's sensitivity to freshwater hosing. Further, the shift from mono- to bistability strongly depends on the chosen boundary conditions, with weaker circulation states exhibiting more abrupt transitions.
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021
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Compound extremes such as heavy precipitation and extreme winds can lead to large damage. To date it is unclear how well climate models represent such compound extremes. Here we present a new measure to assess differences in the dependence structure of bivariate extremes. This measure is applied to assess differences in the dependence of compound precipitation and wind extremes between three model simulations and one reanalysis dataset in a domain in central Europe.
Emmanuele Russo, Silje Lund Sørland, Ingo Kirchner, Martijn Schaap, Christoph C. Raible, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5779–5797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, 2020
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The parameter space of the COSMO-CLM RCM is investigated for the Central Asia CORDEX domain using a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) with different parameter values. Results show that only a subset of model parameters presents relevant changes in model performance and these changes depend on the considered region and variable: objective calibration methods are highly necessary in this case. Additionally, the results suggest the need for calibrating an RCM when targeting different domains.
Jinhwa Shin, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Roberto Grilli, Jai Chowdhry Beeman, Frédéric Parrenin, Grégory Teste, Amaelle Landais, Loïc Schmidely, Lucas Silva, Jochen Schmitt, Bernhard Bereiter, Thomas F. Stocker, Hubertus Fischer, and Jérôme Chappellaz
Clim. Past, 16, 2203–2219, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2203-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2203-2020, 2020
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We reconstruct atmospheric CO2 from the EPICA Dome C ice core during Marine Isotope Stage 6 (185–135 ka) to understand carbon mechanisms under the different boundary conditions of the climate system. The amplitude of CO2 is highly determined by the Northern Hemisphere stadial duration. Carbon dioxide maxima show different lags with respect to the corresponding abrupt CH4 jumps, the latter reflecting rapid warming in the Northern Hemisphere.
Jeemijn Scheen and Thomas F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 925–951, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-925-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-925-2020, 2020
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Variability of sea surface temperatures (SST) in 1200–2000 CE is quite well-known, but the history of deep ocean temperatures is not. Forcing an ocean model with these SSTs, we simulate temperatures in the ocean interior. The circulation changes alter the amplitude and timing of deep ocean temperature fluctuations below 2 km depth, e.g. delaying the atmospheric signal by ~ 200 years in the deep Atlantic. Thus ocean circulation changes are shown to be as important as SST changes at these depths.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5007–5027, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, 2020
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This work presents a new bias-correction method for precipitation that considers orographic characteristics, which can be used in studies where the latter strongly changes. The three-step correction method consists of a separation into orographic features, correction of low-intensity precipitation, and application of empirical quantile mapping. Seasonal bias induced by the global climate model is fully corrected. Rigorous cross-validations illustrate the method's applicability and robustness.
Anders Svensson, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Thomas Blunier, Sune O. Rasmussen, Bo M. Vinther, Paul Vallelonga, Emilie Capron, Vasileios Gkinis, Eliza Cook, Helle Astrid Kjær, Raimund Muscheler, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Frank Wilhelms, Thomas F. Stocker, Hubertus Fischer, Florian Adolphi, Tobias Erhardt, Michael Sigl, Amaelle Landais, Frédéric Parrenin, Christo Buizert, Joseph R. McConnell, Mirko Severi, Robert Mulvaney, and Matthias Bigler
Clim. Past, 16, 1565–1580, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1565-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1565-2020, 2020
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We identify signatures of large bipolar volcanic eruptions in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during the last glacial period, which allows for a precise temporal alignment of the ice cores. Thereby the exact timing of unexplained, abrupt climatic changes occurring during the last glacial period can be determined in a global context. The study thus provides a step towards a full understanding of elements of the climate system that may also play an important role in the future.
Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, Nicola Maher, Jochem Marotzke, Erich M. Fischer, Lukas Brunner, Reto Knutti, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, 2020
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Projections of climate change are uncertain because climate models are imperfect, future greenhouse gases emissions are unknown and climate is to some extent chaotic. To partition and understand these sources of uncertainty and make the best use of climate projections, large ensembles with multiple climate models are needed. Such ensembles now exist in a public data archive. We provide several novel applications focused on global and regional temperature and precipitation projections.
Thomas L. Frölicher, Luca Ramseyer, Christoph C. Raible, Keith B. Rodgers, and John Dunne
Biogeosciences, 17, 2061–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, 2020
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Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global scales marine ecosystem drivers such as temperature, pH, O2 and NPP are potentially predictable 3 (at the surface) and more than 10 years (subsurface) in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Our study suggests that physical–biogeochemical forecast systems have considerable potential for use in marine resource management.
Peter Stucki, Paul Froidevaux, Marcelo Zamuriano, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, Martina Messmer, and Andrey Martynov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 35–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-35-2020, 2020
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In 1876, 1910, and 2005, Switzerland was impacted by extreme rainfall and floods. All events were linked to a Vb cyclone. We test a range of weather model setups (short spinup and standard physics are best) to understand the sensitivity of atmospheric dynamics. The simulated Vb cyclones are (not) well defined for 2005 and 1910 (1876). To reproduce the events, intense moisture flux from the right direction is needed. Storms that slightly deviate from an ideal path produce erroneous precipitation.
Svante Björck, Jesper Sjolte, Karl Ljung, Florian Adolphi, Roger Flower, Rienk H. Smittenberg, Malin E. Kylander, Thomas F. Stocker, Sofia Holmgren, Hui Jiang, Raimund Muscheler, Yamoah K. K. Afrifa, Jayne E. Rattray, and Nathalie Van der Putten
Clim. Past, 15, 1939–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1939-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1939-2019, 2019
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Southern Hemisphere westerlies play a key role in regulating global climate. A lake sediment record on a mid-South Atlantic island shows changes in the westerlies and hydroclimate 36.4–18.6 ka. Before 31 ka the westerlies shifted in concert with the bipolar seesaw mechanism in a fairly warm climate, followed by southerly westerlies and falling temperatures. After 27.5 ka temperatures dropped 3 °C with drier conditions and with shifting westerlies possibly triggering the variable LGM CO2 levels.
Andreas Born, Michael A. Imhof, and Thomas F. Stocker
The Cryosphere, 13, 1529–1546, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1529-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1529-2019, 2019
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We present a new numerical model to simulate the surface energy and mass balance of snow and ice. While similar models exist and cover a wide range of complexity from empirical models to those that simulate the microscopic structure of individual snow grains, we aim to strike a balance between physical completeness and numerical efficiency. This new model will enable physically accurate simulations over timescales of hundreds of millennia, a key requirement of investigating ice age cycles.
Andreas Plach, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Sébastien Le clec'h, Andreas Born, Petra M. Langebroek, Chuncheng Guo, Michael Imhof, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 14, 1463–1485, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1463-2018, 2018
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The Greenland ice sheet is a huge frozen water reservoir which is crucial for predictions of sea level in a warming future climate. Therefore, computer models are needed to reliably simulate the melt of ice sheets. In this study, we use climate model simulations of the last period where it was warmer than today in Greenland. We test different melt models under these climatic conditions and show that the melt models show very different results under these warmer conditions.
Stefan Brönnimann, Jan Rajczak, Erich M. Fischer, Christoph C. Raible, Marco Rohrer, and Christoph Schär
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2047–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, 2018
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Heavy precipitation events in Switzerland are expected to become more intense, but the seasonality also changes. Analysing a large set of model simulations, we find that annual maximum rainfall events become less frequent in late summer and more frequent in early summer and early autumn. The seasonality shift is arguably related to summer drying. Results suggest that changes in the seasonal cycle need to be accounted for when preparing for moderately extreme precipitation events.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Christoph C. Raible, Denica Bozhinova, Olivia Martius, Juan Andrés García Valero, and Juan Pedro Montávez
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2231–2247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, 2018
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We carry out and compare two high-resolution simulations of the Alpine region in the period 1979–2005. We aim to improve the understanding of the local mechanisms leading to extreme events in this complex region. We compare both simulations to precipitation observations to assess the model performance, and attribute major biases to either model or boundary conditions. Further, we develop a new bias correction technique to remove systematic errors in simulated precipitation for impact studies.
Maida Zahid, Richard Blender, Valerio Lucarini, and Maria Caterina Bramati
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1263–1278, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1263-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1263-2017, 2017
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The southern part of Pakistan (Sindh province) has been exposed to frequent and intense temperature extremes recently and is highly vulnerable to their impacts due to lack of information on recurrence of extremes. In this paper for the first time we estimated the return levels of daily maximum temperatures and daily maximum wet-bulb temperatures over the different return periods in Sindh, which would help the local administrations to prioritize the regions in terms of adaptations.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
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Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Yangyang Xu, Claudia Tebaldi, Michael Wehner, Brian O'Neill, Alexandra Jahn, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Warren G. Strand, Lei Lin, Reto Knutti, and Jean Francois Lamarque
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 827–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017, 2017
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We present the results of a set of climate simulations designed to simulate futures in which the Earth's temperature is stabilized at the levels referred to in the 2015 Paris Agreement. We consider the necessary future emissions reductions and the aspects of extreme weather which differ significantly between the 2 and 1.5 °C climate in the simulations.
Martina Messmer, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 477–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-477-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-477-2017, 2017
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Low-pressure systems of type Vb may trigger heavy rainfall events over central Europe. This study aims at analysing the relative role of their moisture sources. For this, a set of sensitivity experiments encompassing changes in soil moisture and Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea SSTs are carried out with WRF. The latter moisture source stands out as the most relevant one. Furthermore, the regions most affected by Vb events in the future might be shifted from the Alps to the Balkan Peninsula.
Peter Köhler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jochen Schmitt, Thomas F. Stocker, and Hubertus Fischer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 363–387, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-363-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-363-2017, 2017
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We document our best available data compilation of published ice core records of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, and N2O and recent measurements on firn air and atmospheric samples covering the time window from 156 000 years BP to the beginning of the year 2016 CE. A smoothing spline method is applied to translate the discrete and irregularly spaced data points into continuous time series. The radiative forcing for each greenhouse gas is computed using well-established, simple formulations.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Eduardo Zorita, Christoph C. Raible, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 13, 629–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, 2017
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This contribution aims at assessing to what extent the analogue method, a classic technique used in other branches of meteorology and climatology, can be used to perform gridded reconstructions of annual temperature based on the limited information from available but un-calibrated proxies spread across different locations of the world. We conclude that it is indeed possible, albeit with certain limitations that render the method comparable to more classic techniques.
Kathrin M. Keller, Sebastian Lienert, Anil Bozbiyik, Thomas F. Stocker, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), David C. Frank, Stefan Klesse, Charles D. Koven, Markus Leuenberger, William J. Riley, Matthias Saurer, Rolf Siegwolf, Rosemarie B. Weigt, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 14, 2641–2673, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2641-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2641-2017, 2017
Stefan Brönnimann, Abdul Malik, Alexander Stickler, Martin Wegmann, Christoph C. Raible, Stefan Muthers, Julien Anet, Eugene Rozanov, and Werner Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15529–15543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, 2016
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The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is a wind oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere. Effects on climate have been found, which is relevant for seasonal forecasts. However, up to now only relatively short records were available, and even within these the climate imprints were intermittent. Here we analyze a 108-year long reconstruction as well as four 405-year long simulations. We confirm most of the claimed QBO effects on climate, but they are small, which explains apparently variable effects.
Chantal Camenisch, Kathrin M. Keller, Melanie Salvisberg, Benjamin Amann, Martin Bauch, Sandro Blumer, Rudolf Brázdil, Stefan Brönnimann, Ulf Büntgen, Bruce M. S. Campbell, Laura Fernández-Donado, Dominik Fleitmann, Rüdiger Glaser, Fidel González-Rouco, Martin Grosjean, Richard C. Hoffmann, Heli Huhtamaa, Fortunat Joos, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Flavio Lehner, Jürg Luterbacher, Nicolas Maughan, Raphael Neukom, Theresa Novy, Kathleen Pribyl, Christoph C. Raible, Dirk Riemann, Maximilian Schuh, Philip Slavin, Johannes P. Werner, and Oliver Wetter
Clim. Past, 12, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, 2016
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Throughout the last millennium, several cold periods occurred which affected humanity. Here, we investigate an exceptionally cold decade during the 15th century. The cold conditions challenged the food production and led to increasing food prices and a famine in parts of Europe. In contrast to periods such as the “Year Without Summer” after the eruption of Tambora, these extreme climatic conditions seem to have occurred by chance and in relation to the internal variability of the climate system.
Stefan Muthers, Christoph C. Raible, Eugene Rozanov, and Thomas F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 877–892, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, 2016
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important oceanic circulation system which transports large amounts of heat from the tropics to the north. This circulation is strengthened when less solar irradiance reaches the Earth, e.g. due to reduced solar activity or geoengineering techniques. In climate models, however, this response is overestimated when chemistry–climate interactions and the following shift in the atmospheric circulation systems are not considered.
Niklaus Merz, Andreas Born, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 12, 2011–2031, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2011-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2011-2016, 2016
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The last (Eemian) interglacial is studied with a global climate model focusing on Greenland and the adjacent high latitudes. A set of model experiments demonstrates the crucial role of changes in sea ice and sea surface temperatures for the magnitude of Eemian atmospheric warming. Greenland temperatures are found highly sensitive to sea ice changes in the Nordic Seas but rather insensitive to changes in the Labrador Sea. This behavior has important implications for Greenland ice core signals.
Olivier Eicher, Matthias Baumgartner, Adrian Schilt, Jochen Schmitt, Jakob Schwander, Thomas F. Stocker, and Hubertus Fischer
Clim. Past, 12, 1979–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1979-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1979-2016, 2016
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A new high-resolution total air content record over the NGRIP ice core, spanning 0.3–120 kyr is presented. In agreement with Antarctic ice cores, we find a strong local insolation signature but also 3–5 % decreases in total air content as a local response to Dansgaard–Oeschger events, which can only partly be explained by changes in surface pressure and temperature. Accordingly, a dynamic response of firnification to rapid climate changes on the Greenland ice sheet must have occurred.
Amaelle Landais, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Emilie Capron, Petra M. Langebroek, Pepijn Bakker, Emma J. Stone, Niklaus Merz, Christoph C. Raible, Hubertus Fischer, Anaïs Orsi, Frédéric Prié, Bo Vinther, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
Clim. Past, 12, 1933–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, 2016
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The last lnterglacial (LIG; 116 000 to 129 000 years before present) surface temperature at the upstream Greenland NEEM deposition site is estimated to be warmer by +7 to +11 °C compared to the preindustrial period. We show that under such warm temperatures, melting of snow probably led to a significant surface melting. There is a paradox between the extent of the Greenland ice sheet during the LIG and the strong warming during this period that models cannot solve.
Basil Neff, Andreas Born, and Thomas F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 397–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-397-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-397-2016, 2016
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, C. C. Raible, and S. Dierer
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3349–3363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3349-2015, 2015
S. Muthers, F. Arfeuille, C. C. Raible, and E. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11461–11476, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11461-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11461-2015, 2015
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After volcanic eruptions different radiative and chemical processes take place in the stratosphere which perturb the ozone layer and cause pronounced dynamical changes. In idealized chemistry-climate model simulations the importance of these processes and the modulating role of the climate state is analysed. The chemical effect strongly differs between a preindustrial and present-day climate, but the effect on the dynamics is weak. Radiative processes dominate the dynamics in all climate states.
M. Messmer, J. J. Gómez-Navarro, and C. C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-541-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-541-2015, 2015
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, O. Bothe, S. Wagner, E. Zorita, J. P. Werner, J. Luterbacher, C. C. Raible, and J. P Montávez
Clim. Past, 11, 1077–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, 2015
F. Lehner, F. Joos, C. C. Raible, J. Mignot, A. Born, K. M. Keller, and T. F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 411–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, 2015
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We present the first last-millennium simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) including an interactive carbon cycle in both ocean and land component. Volcanic eruptions emerge as the strongest forcing factor for the preindustrial climate and carbon cycle. We estimate the climate-carbon-cycle feedback in CESM to be at the lower bounds of empirical estimates (1.3ppm/°C). The time of emergence for interannual global land and ocean carbon uptake rates are 1947 and 1877, respectively.
D. Zanchettin, O. Bothe, F. Lehner, P. Ortega, C. C. Raible, and D. Swingedouw
Clim. Past, 11, 939–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-939-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-939-2015, 2015
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A discrepancy exists between reconstructed and simulated Pacific North American pattern (PNA) features during the early 19th century. Pseudo-reconstructions demonstrate that the available PNA reconstruction is potentially skillful but also potentially affected by a number of sources of uncertainty and deficiencies especially at multidecadal and centennial timescales. Simulations and reconstructions can be reconciled by attributing the reconstructed PNA features to internal variability.
S. Muthers, J. G. Anet, A. Stenke, C. C. Raible, E. Rozanov, S. Brönnimann, T. Peter, F. X. Arfeuille, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2157–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, 2014
K. M. Keller, F. Joos, and C. C. Raible
Biogeosciences, 11, 3647–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, 2014
N. Merz, A. Born, C. C. Raible, H. Fischer, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 10, 1221–1238, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1221-2014, 2014
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. V. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, W. Schmutz, and T. Peter
Clim. Past, 10, 921–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014
M. Baumgartner, P. Kindler, O. Eicher, G. Floch, A. Schilt, J. Schwander, R. Spahni, E. Capron, J. Chappellaz, M. Leuenberger, H. Fischer, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 10, 903–920, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-903-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-903-2014, 2014
C. C. Raible, F. Lehner, J. F. González-Rouco, and L. Fernández-Donado
Clim. Past, 10, 537–550, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-537-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-537-2014, 2014
B. Bereiter, H. Fischer, J. Schwander, and T. F. Stocker
The Cryosphere, 8, 245–256, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-245-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-245-2014, 2014
S. Schüpbach, U. Federer, P. R. Kaufmann, S. Albani, C. Barbante, T. F. Stocker, and H. Fischer
Clim. Past, 9, 2789–2807, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2789-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2789-2013, 2013
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, T. Peter, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10951–10967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, 2013
N. Merz, C. C. Raible, H. Fischer, V. Varma, M. Prange, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 9, 2433–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, 2013
A. Born, T. F. Stocker, and A. B. Sandø
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-10-555-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-10-555-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
B. Bereiter, T. F. Stocker, and H. Fischer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 251–262, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-251-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-251-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Atmospheric Dynamics | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Centennial-Decadal
Timescale dependence of the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon strength and precipitation over eastern China in the last millennium
The South American monsoon variability over the last millennium in climate models
Jian Shi, Qing Yan, and Huijun Wang
Clim. Past, 14, 577–591, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-577-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-577-2018, 2018
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The paleo-East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is widely reconstructed by precipitation/humidity proxies over East Asia. However, based on numerical simulations over the last millennium, we find that the multi-decadal relationship between the EASM and precipitation over eastern China is non-stationary, which may be attributed to the internal variability of the climate system rather than the external forcings. In contrast, the centennial EASM–precipitation relationship is much more close and stable.
Maisa Rojas, Paola A. Arias, Valentina Flores-Aqueveque, Anji Seth, and Mathias Vuille
Clim. Past, 12, 1681–1691, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1681-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1681-2016, 2016
Short summary
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Recent work shows that during the most prominent climate anomalies during the last millennium, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (ca. 950–1250) and the Little Ice Age (ca. 1450–1850), the South American monsoon system (SAMS) was drier and wetter, respectively. We investigate if this variability in the SAMS is reproduced in the latest set of climate simulations that cover these periods. Despite weak forcing, through analysis of the large-scale circulation we find this signal in the models.
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Short summary
Extratropical cyclones in winter and their characteristics are investigated in depth for the Atlantic European region from 850 to 2100 CE. During the Common Era, cyclone characteristics show pronounced variations mainly caused by internal variability of the coupled climate system. When anthropogenic forcing becomes dominant, a strong increase of extreme cyclone-related precipitation is found due to thermodynamics, though dynamical processes can play an important role during the last millennium.
Extratropical cyclones in winter and their characteristics are investigated in depth for the...
