Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Mar 2017
Research article |
| 15 Mar 2017
Tropical forcing of increased Southern Ocean climate variability revealed by a 140-year subantarctic temperature reconstruction
Climate Change Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and
Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Palaeontology, Geobiology and Earth Archives Research Centre, School
of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South
Wales, New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Christopher J. Fogwill
Climate Change Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and
Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Palaeontology, Geobiology and Earth Archives Research Centre, School
of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South
Wales, New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Jonathan G. Palmer
Climate Change Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and
Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Palaeontology, Geobiology and Earth Archives Research Centre, School
of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South
Wales, New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Erik van Sebille
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New
South Wales, New South Wales, Australia
Grantham Institute and Department of Physics, Imperial College
London, London, UK
Zoë Thomas
Climate Change Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and
Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Palaeontology, Geobiology and Earth Archives Research Centre, School
of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South
Wales, New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Matt McGlone
Landcare Research, P.O. Box 69040, Lincoln 7640, New Zealand
Sarah Richardson
Landcare Research, P.O. Box 69040, Lincoln 7640, New Zealand
Janet M. Wilmshurst
Landcare Research, P.O. Box 69040, Lincoln 7640, New Zealand
School of Environment, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
Pavla Fenwick
Gondwana Tree-Ring Laboratory, P.O. Box 14, Little River 7546, Canterbury, New Zealand
Violette Zunz
Université catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute,
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Place Pasteur,
3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Earth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit
Brussels, Brussels, Belgium
Hugues Goosse
Université catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute,
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Place Pasteur,
3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Kerry-Jayne Wilson
West Coast Penguin Trust, P.O. Box 70, Charleston 7865, West Coast,
New Zealand
Lionel Carter
Antarctic Research Centre, University of Victoria, Wellington, New
Zealand
Mathew Lipson
Climate Change Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and
Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New
South Wales, New South Wales, Australia
Richard T. Jones
Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Exeter University, Devon, EX4 4RJ, Exeter, UK
Melanie Harsch
Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA,
USA
Graeme Clark
Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth
and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Ezequiel Marzinelli
Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth
and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Sydney Institute of Marine Science, Chowder Bay Rd, Mosman, NSW 2088,
Australia
Tracey Rogers
Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth
and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Eleanor Rainsley
Wollongong Isotope Geochronology Laboratory, School of Earth and
Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia
Laura Ciasto
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for
Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Stephanie Waterman
Climate Change Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and
Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New
South Wales, New South Wales, Australia
Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of
British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
Elizabeth R. Thomas
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Martin Visbeck
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and Kiel
University, Kiel, Germany
Related authors
Philippa A. Higgins, Jonathan G. Palmer, Chris S. M. Turney, Martin S. Andersen, and Fiona Johnson
Clim. Past, 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1169-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1169-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We studied eight New Zealand tree species and identified differences in their responses to large volcanic eruptions. The response is dependent on the species and how well it can tolerate stress, but substantial within-species differences are also observed depending on site factors, including altitude and exposure. This has important implications for tree-ring temperature reconstructions because site selection and compositing methods can change the magnitude of observed volcanic cooling.
Chris S. M. Turney, Richard T. Jones, Nicholas P. McKay, Erik van Sebille, Zoë A. Thomas, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, and Christopher J. Fogwill
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3341–3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Interglacial (129–116 ka) experienced global temperatures and sea levels higher than today. The direct contribution of warmer conditions to global sea level (thermosteric) are uncertain. We report a global network of sea surface temperatures. We find mean global annual temperature anomalies of 0.2 ± 0.1˚C and an early maximum peak of 0.9 ± 0.1˚C. Our reconstruction suggests warmer waters contributed on average 0.08 ± 0.1 m and a peak contribution of 0.39 ± 0.1 m to global sea level.
Chris S. M. Turney, Helen V. McGregor, Pierre Francus, Nerilie Abram, Michael N. Evans, Hugues Goosse, Lucien von Gunten, Darrell Kaufman, Hans Linderholm, Marie-France Loutre, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 15, 611–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This PAGES (Past Global Changes) 2k (climate of the past 2000 years working group) special issue of Climate of the Past brings together the latest understanding of regional change and impacts from PAGES 2k groups across a range of proxies and regions. The special issue has emerged from a need to determine the magnitude and rate of change of regional and global climate beyond the timescales accessible within the observational record.
Eleanor Rainsley, Chris S. M. Turney, Nicholas R. Golledge, Janet M. Wilmshurst, Matt S. McGlone, Alan G. Hogg, Bo Li, Zoë A. Thomas, Richard Roberts, Richard T. Jones, Jonathan G. Palmer, Verity Flett, Gregory de Wet, David K. Hutchinson, Mathew J. Lipson, Pavla Fenwick, Ben R. Hines, Umberto Binetti, and Christopher J. Fogwill
Clim. Past, 15, 423–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-423-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-423-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The New Zealand subantarctic islands, in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, provide valuable records of past environmental change. We find that the Auckland Islands hosted a small ice cap around 384 000 years ago, but that there was little glaciation during the Last Glacial Maximum, around 21 000 years ago, in contrast to mainland New Zealand. This shows that the climate here is susceptible to changes in regional factors such as sea-ice expanse and the position of ocean fronts.
Amy J. Dougherty, Jeong-Heon Choi, Chris S. M. Turney, and Anthony Dosseto
Clim. Past, 15, 389–404, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-389-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-389-2019, 2019
Florian Adolphi, Christopher Bronk Ramsey, Tobias Erhardt, R. Lawrence Edwards, Hai Cheng, Chris S. M. Turney, Alan Cooper, Anders Svensson, Sune O. Rasmussen, Hubertus Fischer, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 14, 1755–1781, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1755-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1755-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The last glacial period was characterized by a number of rapid climate changes seen, for example, as abrupt warmings in Greenland and changes in monsoon rainfall intensity. However, due to chronological uncertainties it is challenging to know how tightly coupled these changes were. Here we exploit cosmogenic signals caused by changes in the Sun and Earth magnetic fields to link different climate archives and improve our understanding of the dynamics of abrupt climate change.
Zoë A. Thomas, Richard T. Jones, Chris J. Fogwill, Jackie Hatton, Alan N. Williams, Alan Hogg, Scott Mooney, Philip Jones, David Lister, Paul Mayewski, and Chris S. M. Turney
Clim. Past, 14, 1727–1738, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1727-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1727-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We report a high-resolution study of a 5000-year-long peat record from the Falkland Islands. This area sensitive to the dynamics of the Amundsen Sea Low, which plays a major role in modulating the Southern Ocean climate. We find wetter, colder conditions between 5.0 and 2.5 ka due to enhanced southerly airflow, with the establishment of drier and warmer conditions from 2.5 ka to present. This implies more westerly airflow and the increased projection of the ASL onto the South Atlantic.
Chris S.~M. Turney, Andrew Klekociuk, Christopher J. Fogwill, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Claire L. Parkinson, Gilbert Compo, Matthew Lazzara, Linda Keller, Rob Allan, Jonathan G. Palmer, Graeme Clark, and Ezequiel Marzinelli
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate that a mid-twentieth century decrease in geopotential height in the southwest Pacific marks a Rossby wave response to equatorial Pacific warming, leading to enhanced easterly airflow off George V Land. Our results suggest that in contrast to ozone hole-driven changes in the Amundsen Sea, the 1979–2015 increase in sea ice extent off George V Land may be in response to reduced northward Ekman drift and enhanced (near-coast) production as a consequence of low latitude forcing.
Christopher J. Fogwill, Erik van Sebille, Eva A. Cougnon, Chris S. M. Turney, Steve R. Rintoul, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Graeme F. Clark, E. M. Marzinelli, Eleanor B. Rainsley, and Lionel Carter
The Cryosphere, 10, 2603–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2603-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2603-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Here we report new data from in situ oceanographic surveys and high-resolution ocean modelling experiments in the Commonwealth Bay region of East Antarctica, where in 2010 there was a major reconfiguration of the regional icescape due to the collision of the 97 km long iceberg B09B with the Mertz Glacier tongue. Here we compare post-calving observations with high-resolution ocean modelling which suggest that this reconfiguration has led to the development of a new polynya off Commonwealth Bay.
Steven J. Phipps, Christopher J. Fogwill, and Christian S. M. Turney
The Cryosphere, 10, 2317–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2317-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2317-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the effects of melting of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet on the Southern Ocean. Using a climate model, we find that melting changes the ocean circulation and causes warming of more than 1 °C at depth. We also discover the potential existence of a "domino effect", whereby the initial warming spreads westwards around the Antarctic continent. Melting of just one sector could therefore destabilise the wider Antarctic Ice Sheet, leading to substantial increases in global sea level.
C. S. M. Turney, R. T. Jones, C. Fogwill, J. Hatton, A. N. Williams, A. Hogg, Z. A. Thomas, J. Palmer, S. Mooney, and R. W. Reimer
Clim. Past, 12, 189–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-189-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-189-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow is considered a major driver of Southern Ocean and global climate. Observational records, however, are limited. Here we present a new Falkland Islands record that exploits "exotic" South America pollen and charcoal to reconstruct changing airflow. We find stronger winds 2000–1000 cal. yr BP, associated with increased burning, and a 250-year periodicity, suggesting solar forcing. Our results have important implications for understanding late Holocene climates.
C. S. M. Turney, C. J. Fogwill, A. R. Klekociuk, T. D. van Ommen, M. A. J. Curran, A. D. Moy, and J. G. Palmer
The Cryosphere, 9, 2405–2415, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2405-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2405-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Recent trends in ocean circulation, sea ice and climate over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica are highly complex. Here we report a new snow core from the South Pole alongside reanalysis of 20th century global atmospheric circulation. We demonstrate for the first time that atmospheric pressure anomalies in the mid-latitudes act as "gatekeepers" to meridional exchange over continental Antarctica, modulated by the tropical Pacific, with potentially significant impacts on surface mass balance.
Z. A. Thomas, F. Kwasniok, C. A. Boulton, P. M. Cox, R. T. Jones, T. M. Lenton, and C. S. M. Turney
Clim. Past, 11, 1621–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Using a combination of speleothem records and model simulations of the East Asian Monsoon over the penultimate glacial cycle, we search for early warning signals of past tipping points. We detect a characteristic slower response to perturbations prior to an abrupt monsoon shift at the glacial termination; however, we do not detect these signals in the preceding shifts. Our results have important implications for detecting tipping points in palaeoclimate records outside glacial terminations.
A. Rouillard, G. Skrzypek, S. Dogramaci, C. Turney, and P. F. Grierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2057–2078, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2057-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2057-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed a 100-year monthly history of flooding and drought of a large wetland in arid northwest Australia, using hydroclimatic data calibrated against 25 years of satellite images. Severe and intense regional rainfall, as well as the sequence of events, determined surface water expression on the floodplain. While inter-annual variability was high, changes to the flood regime over the last 20 years suggest the wetland may become more persistent in response to the observed rainfall trend.
Claudio M. Pierard, Siren Rühs, Laura Gómez-Navarro, Michael C. Denes, Florian Meirer, Thierry Penduff, and Erik van Sebille
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3847, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3847, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Particle-tracking simulations compute how ocean currents transport material. However, initialising these simulations is often ad-hoc. Here, we explore how two different strategies (releasing particles over space or over time) compare. Specifically, we compare the variability in particle trajectories to the variability of particles computed in a 50-member ensemble simulation. We find that releasing the particles over 20 weeks gives variability that is most like that in the ensemble.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, Dieter Tetzner, Bradley Markle, Joel Pedro, Guisella Gacitúa, Dorothea Elisabeth Moser, and Sarah Jackson
Clim. Past, 20, 2525–2538, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2525-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The chemical records contained in a 12 m firn (ice) core from Peter I Island, a remote sub-Antarctic island situated in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean (the Bellingshausen Sea), capture changes in snowfall and temperature (2002–2017 CE). This data-sparse region has experienced dramatic climate change in recent decades, including sea ice decline and ice loss from adjacent West Antarctic glaciers.
Marie Genevieve Paule Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, and Nicolas Ghilain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3140, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cores in East Antarctica show contrasting records of past snowfall. We tested if large-scale weather patterns could explain this by combining ice core data with an atmospheric model and radar-derived errors. However, the reconstruction produced unrealistic wind patterns to fit the ice core records. We suggest that uncertainties are not fully captured and that small-scale local wind effects, not represented in the model, could significantly influence snowfall records in the ice cores.
Vesna Bertoncelj, Furu Mienis, Paolo Stocchi, and Erik van Sebille
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3112, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores ocean currents around Curaçao and how land-derived substances like pollutants and nutrients travel in the water. Most substances move northwest, following the main current, but at times, ocean eddies spread them in other directions. This movement may link polluted areas to pristine coral reefs, impacting marine ecosystems. Understanding these patterns helps inform conservation and pollution management around Curaçao.
Emma Rehn, Haidee Cadd, Scott Mooney, Tim J. Cohen, Henry Munack, Alexandru T. Codilean, Matthew Adeleye, Kristen K. Beck, Mark Constantine IV, Chris Gouramanis, Johanna M. Hanson, Penelope J. Jones, A. Peter Kershaw, Lydia Mackenzie, Maame Maisie, Michela Mariani, Kia Mately, David McWethy, Keely Mills, Patrick Moss, Nicholas R. Patton, Cassandra Rowe, Janelle Stevenson, John Tibby, and Janet Wilmshurst
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-328, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-328, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents SahulCHAR, a new collection of palaeofire (ancient fire) records from Australia, New Guinea, and New Zealand. SahulCHAR Version 1 contains 687 records of sedimentary charcoal or black carbon, including digitized data, records from existing databases, and original author-submitted data. SahulCHAR is a much-needed update on past charcoal compilations that will also provide greater representation of records from this region in future global syntheses to understand past fire.
Anna Leerink, Mark Bos, Daan Reijnders, and Erik van Sebille
Geosci. Commun., 7, 201–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-201-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-201-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate scientists who communicate to a broad audience may be reluctant to write in a more personal style, as they assume that it hurts their credibility. To test this assumption, we asked 100 Dutch people to rate the credibility of a climate scientist. We varied how the author of the article addressed the reader and found that the degree of personalization did not have a measurable impact on the credibility of the author. Thus, we conclude that personalization may not hurt credibility.
Bianca Mezzina, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Antoine Barthélemy, and François Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 18, 3825–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze years with extraordinarily low sea ice extent in Antarctica during summer, until the striking record in 2022. We highlight common aspects among these events, such as the fact that the exceptional melting usually occurs in two key regions and that it is related to winds with a similar direction. We also investigate whether the summer conditions are preceded by an unusual state of the sea ice during the previous winter, as well as the physical processes involved.
Mark Vinz Elbertsen, Erik van Sebille, and Peter Kristian Bijl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1596, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work verifies the remarkable finds of late Eocene Antarctic-sourced iceberg-rafted debris found on South Orkney. We find that these icebergs must have been on the larger end of the size scale compared to today’s icebergs due to faster melting in the warmer Eocene climate. The study was performed using a high-resolution model in which individual icebergs were followed through time.
Dorothea Elisabeth Moser, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Anja Eichler, and Eric Wolff
The Cryosphere, 18, 2691–2718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2691-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing temperatures worldwide lead to more melting of glaciers and ice caps, even in the polar regions. This is why ice-core scientists need to prepare to analyse records affected by melting and refreezing. In this paper, we present a summary of how near-surface melt forms, what structural imprints it leaves in snow, how various signatures used for ice-core climate reconstruction are altered, and how we can still extract valuable insights from melt-affected ice cores.
Nieske Vergunst, Tugce Varol, and Erik van Sebille
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1649, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1649, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed and evaluated a board game about sea level rise to engage young adults. We found that the game positively influenced participants' perceptions of their impact on sea level rise, regardless of their prior familiarity with science. This study suggests that interactive and relatable activities can effectively engage broader audiences on climate issues, highlighting the potential for similar approaches in public science communication.
Frances Wijnen, Madelijn Strick, Mark Bos, and Erik van Sebille
Geosci. Commun., 7, 91–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-91-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-91-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate scientists are urged to communicate climate science; there is very little evidence about what types of communication work well for which audiences. We have performed a systematic literature review to analyze what is known about the efficacy of climate communication by scientists. While we have found more than 60 articles in the last 10 years about climate communication activities by scientists, only 7 of these included some form of evaluation of the impact of the activity.
Siren Rühs, Ton van den Bremer, Emanuela Clementi, Michael C. Denes, Aimie Moulin, and Erik van Sebille
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1002, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating the transport of floating particles on the ocean surface is crucial for solving many societal issues. Here, we investigate how the representation of wind-generated surface waves impacts particle transport simulations. We find that different wave-driven processes can alter the transport patterns, and that commonly adopted approximations are not always adequate. This implies that ideally coupled ocean-wave models should be used for surface particle transport simulations.
Philippe F. V. W. Frankemölle, Peter D. Nooteboom, Joe Scutt Phillips, Lauriane Escalle, Simon Nicol, and Erik van Sebille
Ocean Sci., 20, 31–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-31-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-31-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tuna fisheries in the Pacific often use drifting fish aggregating devices (dFADs) to attract fish that are advected by subsurface flow through underwater appendages. Using a particle advection model, we find that virtual particles advected by surface flow are displaced farther than virtual dFADs. We find a relation between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and circular motion in some areas, influencing dFAD densities. This information helps us to understand processes that drive dFAD distribution.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Kenichi Matsuoka, Sarah Wauthy, Vikram Goel, Rahul Dey, Bhanu Pratap, Brice Van Liefferinge, Thamban Meloth, and Jean-Louis Tison
The Cryosphere, 17, 4779–4795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The net accumulation of snow over Antarctica is key for assessing current and future sea-level rise. Ice cores record a noisy snowfall signal to verify model simulations. We find that ice core net snowfall is biased to lower values for ice rises and the Dome Fuji site (Antarctica), while the relative uncertainty in measuring snowfall increases rapidly with distance away from the ice core sites at the ice rises but not at Dome Fuji. Spatial variation in snowfall must therefore be considered.
Tor Nordam, Ruben Kristiansen, Raymond Nepstad, Erik van Sebille, and Andy M. Booth
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5339–5363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5339-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5339-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We describe and compare two common methods, Eulerian and Lagrangian models, used to simulate the vertical transport of material in the ocean. They both solve the same transport problems but use different approaches for representing the underlying equations on the computer. The main focus of our study is on the numerical accuracy of the two approaches. Our results should be useful for other researchers creating or using these types of transport models.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, Diana O. Vladimirova, Dieter R. Tetzner, B. Daniel Emanuelsson, Nathan Chellman, Daniel A. Dixon, Hugues Goosse, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Amy C. F. King, Michael Sigl, Danielle G. Udy, Tessa R. Vance, Dominic A. Winski, V. Holly L. Winton, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Akira Hori, Chavarukonam M. Laluraj, Joseph R. McConnell, Yuko Motizuki, Kazuya Takahashi, Hideaki Motoyama, Yoichi Nakai, Franciéle Schwanck, Jefferson Cardia Simões, Filipe Gaudie Ley Lindau, Mirko Severi, Rita Traversi, Sarah Wauthy, Cunde Xiao, Jiao Yang, Ellen Mosely-Thompson, Tamara V. Khodzher, Ludmila P. Golobokova, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2517–2532, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The concentration of sodium and sulfate measured in Antarctic ice cores is related to changes in both sea ice and winds. Here we have compiled a database of sodium and sulfate records from 105 ice core sites in Antarctica. The records span all, or part, of the past 2000 years. The records will improve our understanding of how winds and sea ice have changed in the past and how they have influenced the climate of Antarctica over the past 2000 years.
Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, and Hugues Goosse
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 511–530, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic equatorial mode (AEM) of variability is partly responsible for the year-to-year rainfall variability over the Guinea coast. We used the current climate models to explore the present-day and future links between the AEM and the extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast. Under future global warming, the total variability of the extreme rainfall indices increases over the Guinea coast. However, the future impact of the AEM on extreme rainfall events decreases over the region.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Fanny Lhardy, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier Paillard, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 19, 1027–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The last deglaciation is a period of large warming from 21 000 to 9000 years ago, concomitant with ice sheet melting. Here, we evaluate the impact of different ice sheet reconstructions and different processes linked to their changes. Changes in bathymetry and coastlines, although not often accounted for, cannot be neglected. Ice sheet melt results in freshwater into the ocean with large effects on ocean circulation, but the timing cannot explain the observed abrupt climate changes.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 17, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using idealized sensitivity experiments with a regional atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model, we show that sea ice advance is constrained by initial conditions in March and the retreat season is influenced by the magnitude of several physical processes, in particular by the ice–albedo feedback and ice transport. Atmospheric feedbacks amplify the response of the winter ice extent to perturbations, while some negative feedbacks related to heat conduction fluxes act on the ice volume.
Yetang Wang, Xueying Zhang, Wentao Ning, Matthew A. Lazzara, Minghu Ding, Carleen H. Reijmer, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Paolo Grigioni, Petra Heil, Elizabeth R. Thomas, David Mikolajczyk, Lee J. Welhouse, Linda M. Keller, Zhaosheng Zhai, Yuqi Sun, and Shugui Hou
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 411–429, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-411-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-411-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we construct a new database of Antarctic automatic weather station (AWS) meteorological records, which is quality-controlled by restrictive criteria. This dataset compiled all available Antarctic AWS observations, and its resolutions are 3-hourly, daily and monthly, which is very useful for quantifying spatiotemporal variability in weather conditions. Furthermore, this compilation will be used to estimate the performance of the regional climate models or meteorological reanalysis products.
Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate change. Here we study centennial temperature variability and the role of large-scale ocean circulation variability using different climate models, geological reconstructions and temperature observations. Unfortunately, uncertainties in models and geological reconstructions are such that more research is needed before we can describe the characteristics of natural centennial temperature variability.
Mathew Lipson, Sue Grimmond, Martin Best, Winston T. L. Chow, Andreas Christen, Nektarios Chrysoulakis, Andrew Coutts, Ben Crawford, Stevan Earl, Jonathan Evans, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Bert G. Heusinkveld, Je-Woo Hong, Jinkyu Hong, Leena Järvi, Sungsoo Jo, Yeon-Hee Kim, Simone Kotthaus, Keunmin Lee, Valéry Masson, Joseph P. McFadden, Oliver Michels, Wlodzimierz Pawlak, Matthias Roth, Hirofumi Sugawara, Nigel Tapper, Erik Velasco, and Helen Claire Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5157–5178, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5157-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a new openly accessible collection of atmospheric observations from 20 cities around the world, capturing 50 site years. The observations capture local meteorology (temperature, humidity, wind, etc.) and the energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere (e.g. radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes). These observations can be used to improve our understanding of urban climate processes and to test the accuracy of urban climate models.
Guillian Van Achter, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
The Cryosphere, 16, 4745–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the changes in ocean–ice interactions in the Totten Glacier area between the last decades (1995–2014) and the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under warmer climate conditions. By the end of the 21st century, the sea ice is strongly reduced, and the ocean circulation close to the coast is accelerated. Our research highlights the importance of including representations of fast ice to simulate realistic ice shelf melt rate increase in East Antarctica under warming conditions.
Stefanie L. Ypma, Quinten Bohte, Alexander Forryan, Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, Andy Donnelly, and Erik van Sebille
Ocean Sci., 18, 1477–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1477-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1477-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this research we aim to improve cleanup efforts on the Galapagos Islands of marine plastic debris when resources are limited and the distribution of the plastic on shorelines is unknown. Using a network that describes the flow of macroplastic between the islands we have identified the most efficient cleanup locations, quantified the impact of targeting these locations and showed that shorelines where the plastic is unlikely to leave are likely efficient cleanup locations.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using statistical tree-growth proxy system models in the data assimilation framework may have limitations. In this study, we successfully incorporate the process-based dendroclimatic model MAIDEN into a data assimilation procedure to robustly compare the outputs of an Earth system model with tree-ring width observations. Important steps are made to demonstrate that using MAIDEN as a proxy system model is a promising way to improve large-scale climate reconstructions with data assimilation.
Helene M. Hoffmann, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Amy C. F. King, Jenna A. Epifanio, Kaden Martin, Diana Vladimirova, Helena V. Pryer, Emily Doyle, Axel Schmidt, Jack D. Humby, Isobel F. Rowell, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Robert Mulvaney, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 18, 1831–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1831-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The WACSWAIN project (WArm Climate Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the last INterglacial) investigates the fate of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last warm period on Earth (115 000–130 000 years before present). Within this framework an ice core was recently drilled at Skytrain Ice Rise. In this study we present a stratigraphic chronology of that ice core based on absolute age markers and annual layer counting for the last 2000 years.
Dieter R. Tetzner, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Claire S. Allen, and Mackenzie M. Grieman
Clim. Past, 18, 1709–1727, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1709-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1709-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds are drivers of recent environmental changes in West Antarctica. However, our understanding of this relationship is limited by short and sparse observational records. Here we present the first regional wind study based on the novel use of diatoms preserved in Antarctic ice cores. Our results demonstrate that diatom abundance is the optimal record for reconstructing wind strength variability over the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind belt.
Thomas R. Etherington, George L. W. Perry, and Janet M. Wilmshurst
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2817–2832, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2817-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2817-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Long time series of temperature and rainfall grids are fundamental to understanding how these variables affects environmental or ecological patterns and processes. We present a History of Open Temperature and Rainfall with Uncertainty in New Zealand (HOTRUNZ) that is an open-access dataset that provides monthly 1 km resolution grids of rainfall and mean, minimum, and maximum daily temperatures with associated uncertainties for New Zealand from 1910 to 2019.
Philippa A. Higgins, Jonathan G. Palmer, Chris S. M. Turney, Martin S. Andersen, and Fiona Johnson
Clim. Past, 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1169-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1169-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We studied eight New Zealand tree species and identified differences in their responses to large volcanic eruptions. The response is dependent on the species and how well it can tolerate stress, but substantial within-species differences are also observed depending on site factors, including altitude and exposure. This has important implications for tree-ring temperature reconstructions because site selection and compositing methods can change the magnitude of observed volcanic cooling.
Joanne S. Johnson, Ryan A. Venturelli, Greg Balco, Claire S. Allen, Scott Braddock, Seth Campbell, Brent M. Goehring, Brenda L. Hall, Peter D. Neff, Keir A. Nichols, Dylan H. Rood, Elizabeth R. Thomas, and John Woodward
The Cryosphere, 16, 1543–1562, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have suggested that some portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet were less extensive than present in the last few thousand years. We discuss how past ice loss and regrowth during this time would leave its mark on geological and glaciological records and suggest ways in which future studies could detect such changes. Determining timing of ice loss and gain around Antarctica and conditions under which they occurred is critical for preparing for future climate-warming-induced changes.
Nicolas Ghilain, Stéphane Vannitsem, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Lesley De Cruz, and Wenguang Wei
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1901–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling the climate at high resolution is crucial to represent the snowfall accumulation over the complex orography of the Antarctic coast. While ice cores provide a view constrained spatially but over centuries, climate models can give insight into its spatial distribution, either at high resolution over a short period or vice versa. We downscaled snowfall accumulation from climate model historical simulations (1850–present day) over Dronning Maud Land at 5.5 km using a statistical method.
Reint Fischer, Delphine Lobelle, Merel Kooi, Albert Koelmans, Victor Onink, Charlotte Laufkötter, Linda Amaral-Zettler, Andrew Yool, and Erik van Sebille
Biogeosciences, 19, 2211–2234, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2211-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2211-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since current estimates show that only about 1 % of the all plastic that enters the ocean is floating at the surface, we look at subsurface processes that can cause vertical movement of (micro)plastic. We investigate how modelled algal attachment and the ocean's vertical movement can cause particles to sink and oscillate in the open ocean. Particles can sink to depths of > 5000 m in regions with high wind intensity and mainly remain close to the surface with low winds and biological activity.
Tobias Erhardt, Matthias Bigler, Urs Federer, Gideon Gfeller, Daiana Leuenberger, Olivia Stowasser, Regine Röthlisberger, Simon Schüpbach, Urs Ruth, Birthe Twarloh, Anna Wegner, Kumiko Goto-Azuma, Takayuki Kuramoto, Helle A. Kjær, Paul T. Vallelonga, Marie-Louise Siggaard-Andersen, Margareta E. Hansson, Ailsa K. Benton, Louise G. Fleet, Rob Mulvaney, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nerilie Abram, Thomas F. Stocker, and Hubertus Fischer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1215–1231, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The datasets presented alongside this manuscript contain high-resolution concentration measurements of chemical impurities in deep ice cores, NGRIP and NEEM, from the Greenland ice sheet. The impurities originate from the deposition of aerosols to the surface of the ice sheet and are influenced by source, transport and deposition processes. Together, these records contain detailed, multi-parameter records of past climate variability over the last glacial period.
Dieter R. Tetzner, Claire S. Allen, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 16, 779–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-779-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The presence of diatoms in Antarctic ice cores has been scarcely documented and poorly understood. Here we present a detailed analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of the diatom record preserved in a set of Antarctic ice cores. Our results reveal that the timing and amount of diatoms deposited present a strong geographical division. This study highlights the potential of the diatom record preserved in Antarctic ice cores to provide useful information about past environmental changes.
Victor Onink, Erik van Sebille, and Charlotte Laufkötter
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1995–2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1995-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1995-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Turbulent mixing is a vital process in 3D modeling of particle transport in the ocean. However, since turbulence occurs on very short spatial scales and timescales, large-scale ocean models generally have highly simplified turbulence representations. We have developed parametrizations for the vertical turbulent transport of buoyant particles that can be easily applied in a large-scale particle tracking model. The predicted vertical concentration profiles match microplastic observations well.
Mikael L. A. Kaandorp, Stefanie L. Ypma, Marijke Boonstra, Henk A. Dijkstra, and Erik van Sebille
Ocean Sci., 18, 269–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-269-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A large amount of marine litter, such as plastics, is located on or around beaches. Both the total amount of this litter and its transport are poorly understood. We investigate this by training a machine learning model with data of cleanup efforts on Dutch beaches between 2014 and 2019, obtained by about 14 000 volunteers. We find that Dutch beaches contain up to 30 000 kg of litter, largely depending on tides, oceanic transport, and how exposed the beaches are.
Peter D. Nooteboom, Peter K. Bijl, Christian Kehl, Erik van Sebille, Martin Ziegler, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 357–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-357-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-357-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Having descended through the water column, microplankton in ocean sediments represents the ocean surface environment and is used as an archive of past and present surface oceanographic conditions. However, this microplankton is advected by turbulent ocean currents during its sinking journey. We use simulations of sinking particles to define ocean bottom provinces and detect these provinces in datasets of sedimentary microplankton, which has implications for palaeoclimate reconstructions.
Koffi Worou, Hugues Goosse, Thierry Fichefet, and Fred Kucharski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over the Guinea Coast, the increased rainfall associated with warm phases of the Atlantic Niño is reasonably well simulated by 24 climate models out of 31, for the present-day conditions. In a warmer climate, general circulation models project a gradual decrease with time of the rainfall magnitude associated with the Atlantic Niño for the 2015–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods. There is a higher confidence in these changes over the equatorial Atlantic than over the Guinea Coast.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Rob Wilson, Kathy Allen, Patrick Baker, Gretel Boswijk, Brendan Buckley, Edward Cook, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Dan Druckenbrod, Anthony Fowler, Margaux Grandjean, Paul Krusic, and Jonathan Palmer
Biogeosciences, 18, 6393–6421, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We explore blue intensity (BI) – a low-cost method for measuring ring density – to enhance palaeoclimatology in Australasia. Calibration experiments, using several conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand, model 50–80 % of the summer temperature variance. The implications of these results have profound consequences for high-resolution paleoclimatology in Australasia, as the speed and cheapness of BI generation could lead to a step change in our understanding of past climate in the region.
C. Kehl, R. P. B. Fischer, and E. van Sebille
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-4-2021, 217–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-4-2021-217-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-4-2021-217-2021, 2021
Rebeca de la Fuente, Gábor Drótos, Emilio Hernández-García, Cristóbal López, and Erik van Sebille
Ocean Sci., 17, 431–453, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-431-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-431-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Plastic pollution is a major environmental issue affecting the oceans. The number of floating and sedimented pieces has been quantified by several studies. But their abundance in the water column remains mostly unknown. To fill this gap we model the dynamics of a particular type of particle, rigid microplastics sinking rapidly in open sea in the Mediterranean. We find they represent a small but appreciable fraction of the total sea plastic and discuss characteristics of their sinking motion.
Elizabeth Ruth Thomas, Guisella Gacitúa, Joel B. Pedro, Amy Constance Faith King, Bradley Markle, Mariusz Potocki, and Dorothea Elisabeth Moser
The Cryosphere, 15, 1173–1186, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1173-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1173-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present the first-ever radar and ice core data from the sub-Antarctic islands of Bouvet Island, Peter I Island, and Young Island. These islands have the potential to record past climate in one of the most data-sparse regions on earth. Despite their northerly location, surface melting is generally low, and the upper layer of the ice at most sites is undisturbed. We estimate that a 100 m ice core drilled on these islands could capture climate over the past 100–200 years.
David Wichmann, Christian Kehl, Henk A. Dijkstra, and Erik van Sebille
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 43–59, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-43-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-43-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Fluid parcels transported in complicated flows often contain subsets of particles that stay close over finite time intervals. We propose a new method for detecting finite-time coherent sets based on the density-based clustering technique of ordering points to identify the clustering structure (OPTICS). Unlike previous methods, our method has an intrinsic notion of coherent sets at different spatial scales. OPTICS is readily implemented in the SciPy sklearn package, making it easy to use.
Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, Marie G. P. Cavitte, and Liping Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 111–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Polynyas are ice-free oceanic areas within the sea ice pack. Small polynyas are regularly observed in the Southern Ocean, but large open-ocean polynyas have been rare over the past decades. Using records from available ice cores in Antarctica, we reconstruct past polynya activity and confirm that those events have also been rare over the past centuries, but the information provided by existing data is not sufficient to precisely characterize the timing of past polynya opening.
Chris S. M. Turney, Richard T. Jones, Nicholas P. McKay, Erik van Sebille, Zoë A. Thomas, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, and Christopher J. Fogwill
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3341–3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Interglacial (129–116 ka) experienced global temperatures and sea levels higher than today. The direct contribution of warmer conditions to global sea level (thermosteric) are uncertain. We report a global network of sea surface temperatures. We find mean global annual temperature anomalies of 0.2 ± 0.1˚C and an early maximum peak of 0.9 ± 0.1˚C. Our reconstruction suggests warmer waters contributed on average 0.08 ± 0.1 m and a peak contribution of 0.39 ± 0.1 m to global sea level.
Linda K. Dämmer, Lennart de Nooijer, Erik van Sebille, Jan G. Haak, and Gert-Jan Reichart
Clim. Past, 16, 2401–2414, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2401-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2401-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The compositions of foraminifera shells often vary with environmental parameters such as temperature or salinity; thus, they can be used as proxies for these environmental variables. Often a single proxy is influenced by more than one parameter. Here, we show that while salinity impacts shell Na / Ca, temperature has no effect. We also show that the combination of different proxies (Mg / Ca and δ18O) to reconstruct salinity does not seem to work as previously thought.
Henrike Schmidt, Rena Czeschel, and Martin Visbeck
Ocean Sci., 16, 1459–1474, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1459-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our investigations give detailed insight on the seasonally changing current system at intermediate depth in the Arabian Sea that is influenced by the monsoon. The changing currents influence the oxygen transport in the interior ocean and thus allow us to draw conclusions on the maintenance and seasonal variability of the upper part of the oxygen minimum zone in the Arabian Sea.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 4083–4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Surface mass balance (SMB) and surface air temperature (SAT) are correlated at the regional scale for most of Antarctica, SMB and δ18O. Areas with low/no correlation are where wind processes (foehn, katabatic wind warming, and erosion) are sufficiently active to overwhelm the synoptic-scale snow accumulation. Measured in ice cores, the link between SMB, SAT, and δ18O is much weaker. Random noise can be removed by core record averaging but local processes perturb the correlation systematically.
David Wichmann, Christian Kehl, Henk A. Dijkstra, and Erik van Sebille
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 501–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-501-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-501-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The surface transport of heat, nutrients and plastic in the North Atlantic Ocean is organized into large-scale flow structures. We propose a new and simple method to detect such features in ocean drifter data sets by identifying groups of trajectories with similar dynamical behaviour using network theory. We successfully detect well-known regions such as the Subpolar and Subtropical gyres, the Western Boundary Current region and the Caribbean Sea.
Jan Lüdke, Marcus Dengler, Stefan Sommer, David Clemens, Sören Thomsen, Gerd Krahmann, Andrew W. Dale, Eric P. Achterberg, and Martin Visbeck
Ocean Sci., 16, 1347–1366, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1347-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1347-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the intraseasonal variability of the alongshore circulation off Peru in early 2017, this circulation is very important for the supply of nutrients to the upwelling regime. The causes of this variability and its impact on the biogeochemistry are investigated. The poleward flow is strengthened during the observed time period, likely by a downwelling coastal trapped wave. The stronger current causes an increase in nitrate and reduces the deficit of fixed nitrogen relative to phosphorus.
Mirjam van der Mheen, Erik van Sebille, and Charitha Pattiaratchi
Ocean Sci., 16, 1317–1336, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1317-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1317-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A large percentage of global ocean plastic enters the Indian Ocean through rivers, but the fate of these plastics is generally unknown. In this paper, we use computer simulations to show that floating plastics
beachand end up on coastlines throughout the Indian Ocean. Coastlines where a lot of plastic enters the ocean are heavily affected by beaching plastic, but plastics can also beach far from the source on remote islands and countries that contribute little plastic pollution of their own.
David Parkes and Hugues Goosse
The Cryosphere, 14, 3135–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and far between. We used a sophisticated glacier model to simulate glacier length changes over the last 1000 years for those glaciers that we do have long-term records of, to determine whether the model can run in a stable, realistic way over a long timescale, reproducing recent observed trends. We find that post-industrial changes are larger than other changes in this time period driven by recent warming.
Zhiqiang Lyu, Anais J. Orsi, and Hugues Goosse
Clim. Past, 16, 1411–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses two different ways to perform model–data comparisons for the borehole temperature in Antarctica. The results suggest most models generally reproduce the long-term cooling in West Antarctica from 1000 to 1600 CE and the recent 50 years of warming in West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula. However, The 19th-century cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula (−0.94 °C) is not reproduced by any of the models, which tend to show warming instead.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Hugues Goosse, Joël Guiot, Fabio Gennaretti, Etienne Boucher, Frédéric André, and Mathieu Jonard
Clim. Past, 16, 1043–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tree rings are the main data source for climate reconstructions over the last millennium. Statistical tree-growth models have limitations that process-based models could overcome. Here, we investigate the possibility of using a process-based ecophysiological model (MAIDEN) as a complex proxy system model for palaeoclimate applications. We show its ability to simulate tree-growth index time series that can fit robustly tree-ring width observations under certain conditions.
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Louis de Wergifosse, Frédéric André, Nicolas Beudez, François de Coligny, Hugues Goosse, François Jonard, Quentin Ponette, Hugues Titeux, Caroline Vincke, and Mathieu Jonard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1459–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Given their key role in the simulation of climate impacts on tree growth, phenological and water balance processes must be integrated in models simulating forest dynamics under a changing environment. Here, we describe these processes integrated in HETEROFOR, a model accounting simultaneously for the functional, structural and spatial complexity to explore the forest response to forestry practices. The model evaluation using phenological and soil water content observations is quite promising.
Kirstin Hoffmann, Francisco Fernandoy, Hanno Meyer, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Marcelo Aliaga, Dieter Tetzner, Johannes Freitag, Thomas Opel, Jorge Arigony-Neto, Christian Florian Göbel, Ricardo Jaña, Delia Rodríguez Oroz, Rebecca Tuckwell, Emily Ludlow, Joseph R. McConnell, and Christoph Schneider
The Cryosphere, 14, 881–904, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-881-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-881-2020, 2020
Kévin Fourteau, Patricia Martinerie, Xavier Faïn, Christoph F. Schaller, Rebecca J. Tuckwell, Henning Löwe, Laurent Arnaud, Olivier Magand, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Johannes Freitag, Robert Mulvaney, Martin Schneebeli, and Vladimir Ya. Lipenkov
The Cryosphere, 13, 3383–3403, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3383-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3383-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding gas trapping in polar ice is essential to study the relationship between greenhouse gases and past climates. New data of bubble closure, used in a simple gas-trapping model, show inconsistency with the final air content in ice. This suggests gas trapping is not fully understood. We also use a combination of high-resolution measurements to investigate the effect of polar snow stratification on gas trapping and find that all strata have similar pores, but that some close in advance.
Erik van Sebille, Philippe Delandmeter, John Schofield, Britta Denise Hardesty, Jen Jones, and Andy Donnelly
Ocean Sci., 15, 1341–1349, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1341-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1341-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Galápagos Archipelago and Galápagos Marine Reserve are among the world's most iconic wildlife refuges. Yet, plastic litter is now found even in this remote archipelago. It is unclear where this plastic originates from. In this study, we show that remote coastal sources of plastic pollution are fairly localized and limited to South American and Central American coastlines. Identifying how plastic ends up in the Galápagos aids integrated management opportunities to reduce plastic pollution.
Philippe Delandmeter and Erik van Sebille
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3571–3584, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3571-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3571-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Parcels is a framework to compute how ocean currents transport
stuffsuch as plankton and plastic around. In the latest version 2.0 of Parcels, we focus on more accurate interpolation schemes and implement methods to seamlessly combine data from different sources (such as winds and currents, possibly in different regions). We show that this framework is very efficient for tracking how microplastic is transported through the North Sea into the Arctic.
Henrike Schmidt, Rena Czeschel, and Martin Visbeck
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-168, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-168, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Our investigations give a detailed insight on the changing current system at intermediate depth in the Arabian Sea and allow to draw conclusions on ventilation pathways of the oxygen minimum zone and its seasonal variability. In response to the monsoon system the boundary currents change direction and feature a regionally varying ventilation pattern.
François Klein, Nerilie J. Abram, Mark A. J. Curran, Hugues Goosse, Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Andrew Moy, Raphael Neukom, Anaïs Orsi, Jesper Sjolte, Nathan Steiger, Barbara Stenni, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
Chris S. M. Turney, Helen V. McGregor, Pierre Francus, Nerilie Abram, Michael N. Evans, Hugues Goosse, Lucien von Gunten, Darrell Kaufman, Hans Linderholm, Marie-France Loutre, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 15, 611–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This PAGES (Past Global Changes) 2k (climate of the past 2000 years working group) special issue of Climate of the Past brings together the latest understanding of regional change and impacts from PAGES 2k groups across a range of proxies and regions. The special issue has emerged from a need to determine the magnitude and rate of change of regional and global climate beyond the timescales accessible within the observational record.
Eleanor Rainsley, Chris S. M. Turney, Nicholas R. Golledge, Janet M. Wilmshurst, Matt S. McGlone, Alan G. Hogg, Bo Li, Zoë A. Thomas, Richard Roberts, Richard T. Jones, Jonathan G. Palmer, Verity Flett, Gregory de Wet, David K. Hutchinson, Mathew J. Lipson, Pavla Fenwick, Ben R. Hines, Umberto Binetti, and Christopher J. Fogwill
Clim. Past, 15, 423–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-423-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-423-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The New Zealand subantarctic islands, in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, provide valuable records of past environmental change. We find that the Auckland Islands hosted a small ice cap around 384 000 years ago, but that there was little glaciation during the Last Glacial Maximum, around 21 000 years ago, in contrast to mainland New Zealand. This shows that the climate here is susceptible to changes in regional factors such as sea-ice expanse and the position of ocean fronts.
Amy J. Dougherty, Jeong-Heon Choi, Chris S. M. Turney, and Anthony Dosseto
Clim. Past, 15, 389–404, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-389-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-389-2019, 2019
Florian Adolphi, Christopher Bronk Ramsey, Tobias Erhardt, R. Lawrence Edwards, Hai Cheng, Chris S. M. Turney, Alan Cooper, Anders Svensson, Sune O. Rasmussen, Hubertus Fischer, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 14, 1755–1781, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1755-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1755-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The last glacial period was characterized by a number of rapid climate changes seen, for example, as abrupt warmings in Greenland and changes in monsoon rainfall intensity. However, due to chronological uncertainties it is challenging to know how tightly coupled these changes were. Here we exploit cosmogenic signals caused by changes in the Sun and Earth magnetic fields to link different climate archives and improve our understanding of the dynamics of abrupt climate change.
Zoë A. Thomas, Richard T. Jones, Chris J. Fogwill, Jackie Hatton, Alan N. Williams, Alan Hogg, Scott Mooney, Philip Jones, David Lister, Paul Mayewski, and Chris S. M. Turney
Clim. Past, 14, 1727–1738, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1727-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1727-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We report a high-resolution study of a 5000-year-long peat record from the Falkland Islands. This area sensitive to the dynamics of the Amundsen Sea Low, which plays a major role in modulating the Southern Ocean climate. We find wetter, colder conditions between 5.0 and 2.5 ka due to enhanced southerly airflow, with the establishment of drier and warmer conditions from 2.5 ka to present. This implies more westerly airflow and the increased projection of the ASL onto the South Atlantic.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Fabrice Ardhuin, Yevgueny Aksenov, Alvise Benetazzo, Laurent Bertino, Peter Brandt, Eric Caubet, Bertrand Chapron, Fabrice Collard, Sophie Cravatte, Jean-Marc Delouis, Frederic Dias, Gérald Dibarboure, Lucile Gaultier, Johnny Johannessen, Anton Korosov, Georgy Manucharyan, Dimitris Menemenlis, Melisa Menendez, Goulven Monnier, Alexis Mouche, Frédéric Nouguier, George Nurser, Pierre Rampal, Ad Reniers, Ernesto Rodriguez, Justin Stopa, Céline Tison, Clément Ubelmann, Erik van Sebille, and Jiping Xie
Ocean Sci., 14, 337–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-337-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-337-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Sea surface KInematics Multiscale (SKIM) monitoring mission is a proposal for a future satellite that is designed to measure ocean currents and waves. Using a Doppler radar, the accurate measurement of currents requires the removal of the mean velocity due to ocean wave motions. This paper describes the main processing steps needed to produce currents and wave data from the radar measurements. With this technique, SKIM can provide unprecedented coverage and resolution, over the global ocean.
Feng Shi, Sen Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, Hugues Goosse, and Qiuzhen Yin
Clim. Past, 13, 1919–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed the multi-proxy precipitation field for China over the past 500 years, which includes three leading modes (a monopole, a dipole, and a triple) of precipitation variability. The dipole mode may be controlled by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability. Such reconstruction is an essential source of information to document the climate variability over decadal to centennial timescales and can be used to assess the ability of climate models to simulate past climate change.
Kristina Seftigen, Hugues Goosse, Francois Klein, and Deliang Chen
Clim. Past, 13, 1831–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Comparisons of proxy data to GCM-simulated hydroclimate are still limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterized. In this study, we bring together tree-ring paleoclimate evidence and CMIP5–PMIP3 model simulations of the last millennium hydroclimate variability across Scandinavia. We explore the consistency between the datasets and the role of external forcing versus internal variability in driving the hydroclimate changes regionally.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Michael Lange and Erik van Sebille
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4175–4186, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4175-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4175-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we present version 0.9 of Parcels (Probably A Really Computationally Efficient Lagrangian Simulator). Parcels is an experimental prototype code aimed at exploring novel approaches for Lagrangian tracking of virtual ocean particles in the petascale age. The modularity, flexibility and scalability will allow the code to be used to track water, nutrients, microbes, plankton, plastic and even fish.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, J. Melchior van Wessem, Jason Roberts, Elisabeth Isaksson, Elisabeth Schlosser, Tyler J. Fudge, Paul Vallelonga, Brooke Medley, Jan Lenaerts, Nancy Bertler, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Daniel A. Dixon, Massimo Frezzotti, Barbara Stenni, Mark Curran, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Clim. Past, 13, 1491–1513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Regional Antarctic snow accumulation derived from 79 ice core records is evaluated as part of the PAGES Antarctica 2k working group. Our results show that surface mass balance for the total Antarctic ice sheet has increased at a rate of 7 ± 0.13 Gt dec-1 since 1800 AD, representing a net reduction in sea level of ~ 0.02 mm dec-1 since 1800 and ~ 0.04 mm dec-1 since 1900 AD. The largest contribution is from the Antarctic Peninsula.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Nicholas R. Golledge, Zoë A. Thomas, Richard H. Levy, Edward G. W. Gasson, Timothy R. Naish, Robert M. McKay, Douglas E. Kowalewski, and Christopher J. Fogwill
Clim. Past, 13, 959–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-959-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-959-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated how the Antarctic climate and ice sheets evolved during a period of warmer-than-present temperatures 4 million years ago, during a time when the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere was very similar to today's level. Using computer models to first simulate the climate, and then how the ice sheets responded, we found that Antarctica most likely lost around 8.5 m sea-level equivalent ice volume as both East and West Antarctic ice sheets retreated.
Aitana Forcén-Vázquez, Michael J. M. Williams, Melissa Bowen, Lionel Carter, and Helen Bostock
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2017-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2017-36, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
Johannes Karstensen, Florian Schütte, Alice Pietri, Gerd Krahmann, Björn Fiedler, Damian Grundle, Helena Hauss, Arne Körtzinger, Carolin R. Löscher, Pierre Testor, Nuno Vieira, and Martin Visbeck
Biogeosciences, 14, 2167–2181, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2167-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2167-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution observational data from underwater gliders and ships are used to investigate drivers and pathways of nutrient upwelling in high-productive whirling ecosystems (eddies). The data suggest that the upwelling is created by the interaction of wind-induced internal waves with the local rotation of the eddy. Because of differences in nutrient and oxygen pathways, a low-oxygen core is established at shallow depth in the high-productive eddies.
Chris S.~M. Turney, Andrew Klekociuk, Christopher J. Fogwill, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Claire L. Parkinson, Gilbert Compo, Matthew Lazzara, Linda Keller, Rob Allan, Jonathan G. Palmer, Graeme Clark, and Ezequiel Marzinelli
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate that a mid-twentieth century decrease in geopotential height in the southwest Pacific marks a Rossby wave response to equatorial Pacific warming, leading to enhanced easterly airflow off George V Land. Our results suggest that in contrast to ozone hole-driven changes in the Amundsen Sea, the 1979–2015 increase in sea ice extent off George V Land may be in response to reduced northward Ekman drift and enhanced (near-coast) production as a consequence of low latitude forcing.
Mathew J. Lipson, Melissa A. Hart, and Marcus Thatcher
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-991-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-991-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
City-scale models describing the surface energy balance have difficulties representing heat storage in urban materials. This paper proposes an alternative method to discretise heat conduction through urban materials. We compare the new method with an approach commonly used in urban models and find the new method better matches exact solutions to heat transfer for a wide variety of urban material compositions. We also find the new method improves the bulk energy flux response of an urban model.
Christopher J. Fogwill, Erik van Sebille, Eva A. Cougnon, Chris S. M. Turney, Steve R. Rintoul, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Graeme F. Clark, E. M. Marzinelli, Eleanor B. Rainsley, and Lionel Carter
The Cryosphere, 10, 2603–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2603-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2603-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Here we report new data from in situ oceanographic surveys and high-resolution ocean modelling experiments in the Commonwealth Bay region of East Antarctica, where in 2010 there was a major reconfiguration of the regional icescape due to the collision of the 97 km long iceberg B09B with the Mertz Glacier tongue. Here we compare post-calving observations with high-resolution ocean modelling which suggest that this reconfiguration has led to the development of a new polynya off Commonwealth Bay.
Florian Schütte, Johannes Karstensen, Gerd Krahmann, Helena Hauss, Björn Fiedler, Peter Brandt, Martin Visbeck, and Arne Körtzinger
Biogeosciences, 13, 5865–5881, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5865-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5865-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale eddies with very low–oxygen concentrations at shallow depth have been recently discovered in the eastern tropical North Atlantic. Our analysis shows that low oxygen eddies occur more frequent than expected and are found even close to the equator (8° N). From budget calculations we show that an oxygen reduction of 7 µmol/kg in the depth range of 50–150 m in the eastern tropical North Atlantic (peak reduction is 16 µmol/kg at 100 m depth) can be associated with the dispersion of these eddies.
Steven J. Phipps, Christopher J. Fogwill, and Christian S. M. Turney
The Cryosphere, 10, 2317–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2317-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2317-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the effects of melting of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet on the Southern Ocean. Using a climate model, we find that melting changes the ocean circulation and causes warming of more than 1 °C at depth. We also discover the potential existence of a "domino effect", whereby the initial warming spreads westwards around the Antarctic continent. Melting of just one sector could therefore destabilise the wider Antarctic Ice Sheet, leading to substantial increases in global sea level.
François Klein, Hugues Goosse, Nicholas E. Graham, and Dirk Verschuren
Clim. Past, 12, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyses global climate model simulations of long-term East African hydroclimate changes relative to proxy-based reconstructions over the last millennium. No common signal is found between model results and reconstructions as well as among the model time series, which suggests that simulated hydroclimate is mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing.
Paulina Cetina-Heredia, Erik van Sebille, Richard Matear, and Moninya Roughan
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-53, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-53, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Characterizing phytoplankton growth influences fisheries and climate. We use a lagrangian approach to identify phytoplankton blooms in the Great Australian Bight (GAB), and associate them with nitrate sources. We find that 88 % of the nitrate utilized in blooms is originated between the GAB and the SubAntarctic Front. Large nitrate concentrations are supplied at depth but do not reach the euphotic zone often. As a result, 55 % of blooms utilize nitrate supplied in the top 100 m.
C. S. M. Turney, R. T. Jones, C. Fogwill, J. Hatton, A. N. Williams, A. Hogg, Z. A. Thomas, J. Palmer, S. Mooney, and R. W. Reimer
Clim. Past, 12, 189–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-189-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-189-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow is considered a major driver of Southern Ocean and global climate. Observational records, however, are limited. Here we present a new Falkland Islands record that exploits "exotic" South America pollen and charcoal to reconstruct changing airflow. We find stronger winds 2000–1000 cal. yr BP, associated with increased burning, and a 250-year periodicity, suggesting solar forcing. Our results have important implications for understanding late Holocene climates.
J. M. van Wessem, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, C. H. Reijmer, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, N. E. Barrand, E. R. Thomas, J. Turner, J. Wuite, T. A. Scambos, and E. van Meijgaard
The Cryosphere, 10, 271–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first high-resolution (5.5 km) modelled estimate of surface mass balance (SMB) over the period 1979–2014 for the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Precipitation (snowfall and rain) largely determines the SMB, and is exceptionally high over the western mountain slopes, with annual values > 4 m water equivalent. Snowmelt is widespread over the AP, but only runs off into the ocean at some locations: the Larsen B,C, and Wilkins ice shelves, and along the north-western mountains.
L. Stramma, R. Czeschel, T. Tanhua, P. Brandt, M. Visbeck, and B. S. Giese
Ocean Sci., 12, 153–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-153-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-153-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The subsurface circulation in the eastern tropical North Atlantic OMZ is derived from velocity, float and tracer data and data assimilation results, and shows a cyclonic flow around the Guinea Dome reaching into the oxygen minimum zone. The stronger cyclonic flow around the Guinea Dome in 2009 seem to be connected to a strong Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) event.
A continuous deoxygenation trend of the low oxygen layer was confirmed.
Eddy influence is weak south of the Cape Verde Islands.
C. S. M. Turney, C. J. Fogwill, A. R. Klekociuk, T. D. van Ommen, M. A. J. Curran, A. D. Moy, and J. G. Palmer
The Cryosphere, 9, 2405–2415, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2405-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2405-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Recent trends in ocean circulation, sea ice and climate over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica are highly complex. Here we report a new snow core from the South Pole alongside reanalysis of 20th century global atmospheric circulation. We demonstrate for the first time that atmospheric pressure anomalies in the mid-latitudes act as "gatekeepers" to meridional exchange over continental Antarctica, modulated by the tropical Pacific, with potentially significant impacts on surface mass balance.
Z. A. Thomas, F. Kwasniok, C. A. Boulton, P. M. Cox, R. T. Jones, T. M. Lenton, and C. S. M. Turney
Clim. Past, 11, 1621–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Using a combination of speleothem records and model simulations of the East Asian Monsoon over the penultimate glacial cycle, we search for early warning signals of past tipping points. We detect a characteristic slower response to perturbations prior to an abrupt monsoon shift at the glacial termination; however, we do not detect these signals in the preceding shifts. Our results have important implications for detecting tipping points in palaeoclimate records outside glacial terminations.
J. Karstensen, B. Fiedler, F. Schütte, P. Brandt, A. Körtzinger, G. Fischer, R. Zantopp, J. Hahn, M. Visbeck, and D. Wallace
Biogeosciences, 12, 2597–2605, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2597-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2597-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the first report of the formation of dead zones in the open ocean. A combination of multiple ocean observing system elements (mooring, floats, satellites, ships) allowed us to reconstruct the generation of the dead zones and to connect the formation to enhanced respiration within mesoscale ocean eddies. The dead zones present specific threats to the ecosystem, such as the interruption of the diurnal migration of zooplankters.
A. Rouillard, G. Skrzypek, S. Dogramaci, C. Turney, and P. F. Grierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2057–2078, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2057-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2057-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed a 100-year monthly history of flooding and drought of a large wetland in arid northwest Australia, using hydroclimatic data calibrated against 25 years of satellite images. Severe and intense regional rainfall, as well as the sequence of events, determined surface water expression on the floodplain. While inter-annual variability was high, changes to the flood regime over the last 20 years suggest the wetland may become more persistent in response to the observed rainfall trend.
V. Zunz and H. Goosse
The Cryosphere, 9, 541–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, 2015
P. Brandt, H. W. Bange, D. Banyte, M. Dengler, S.-H. Didwischus, T. Fischer, R. J. Greatbatch, J. Hahn, T. Kanzow, J. Karstensen, A. Körtzinger, G. Krahmann, S. Schmidtko, L. Stramma, T. Tanhua, and M. Visbeck
Biogeosciences, 12, 489–512, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-489-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-489-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Our observational study looks at the structure of the eastern tropical North Atlantic (ETNA) oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) in comparison with the less-ventilated, eastern tropical South Pacific OMZ. We quantify the OMZ’s oxygen budget composed of consumption, advection, lateral and vertical mixing. Substantial oxygen variability is observed on interannual to multidecadal timescales. The deoxygenation of the ETNA OMZ during the last decades represents a substantial imbalance of the oxygen budget.
M. F. Loutre, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, H. Goelzer, and E. Capron
Clim. Past, 10, 1541–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
H. Goosse and V. Zunz
The Cryosphere, 8, 453–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, 2014
A. Mairesse, H. Goosse, P. Mathiot, H. Wanner, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, 2013
S. Dubinkina and H. Goosse
Clim. Past, 9, 1141–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, 2013
V. Zunz, H. Goosse, and F. Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 7, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Atmospheric Dynamics | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Instrumental Period
Evaluation of the ability of the Chinese stalagmite δ18O to record the variation in atmospheric circulation during the second half of the 20th century
Tree ring-based February–April temperature reconstruction for Changbai Mountain in Northeast China and its implication for East Asian winter monsoon
S. Nan, M. Tan, and P. Zhao
Clim. Past, 10, 975–985, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-975-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-975-2014, 2014
H. F. Zhu, X. Q. Fang, X. M. Shao, and Z. Y. Yin
Clim. Past, 5, 661–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-661-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-661-2009, 2009
Cited articles
Abram, N. J., Mulvaney, R., Vimeux, F., Phipps, S. J., Turner, J., and England, M. H.: Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium, Nature Climate Change, 4, 564–569, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2235, 2014.
Adamson, D. A., Whetton, P., and Selkirk, P. M.: An analysis of air temperature records for Macquarie Island: decadal warming, ENSO cooling and Southern Hemisphere circulation patterns, Papers and Proceedings of the Royal Society of Tasmania, 122, 107–112, 1988.
Baker, C., Chilvers, B., Constantine, R., DuFresne, S., Mattlin, R., Van Helden, A., and Hitchmough, R.: Conservation status of New Zealand marine mammals (suborders Cetacea and Pinnipedia), 2009, New Zeal J. Mar. Fresh., 44, 101–115, 2010.
Biondi, F. and Waikul, K.: DENDROCLIM2002: A C+ + program for statistical calibration of climate signals in tree-ring chronologies, Comput. Geosci., 30, 303–311, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2003.11.004, 2003.
Boersma, P. D. and Rebstock, G. A.: Climate change increases reproductive failure in Magellanic penguins, PLoS ONE, 9, e85602, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085602, 2014.
Boyd, P. W., Lennartz, S. T., Glover, D. M., and Doney, S. C.: Biological ramifications of climate-change-mediated oceanic multi-stressors, Nature Climate Change, 5, 71–79, 2015.
Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F. B., and Jones, P. D.: Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006548, 2006.
Brovkin, V., Bendtsen, J., Claussen, M., Ganopolski, A., Kubatzki, C., Petoukhov, V., and Andreev, A.: Carbon cycle, vegetation, and climate dynamics in the Holocene: Experiments with the CLIMBER-2 model, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 16, 86-81–86-20, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GB001662, 2002.
Chelton, D. B. and Risien, C. M.: Zonal and meridional discontinuities and other issues with the HadISST1.1 dataset, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, 18 pp., 2016.
Childerhouse, S., Michael, S., Adams, L., Burns, T., Cockburn, S., Hamer, D., Maloney, A., and Pugsley, C.: New Zealand sea lion research at the Auckland Islands 2014/15, Blue Planet Marine, 50 pp., 2015.
Ciasto, L. M. and Thompson, D. W. J.: Observations of large-scale ocean–atmosphere interaction in the Southern Hemisphere, J. Climate, 21, 1244–1259, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1809.1, 2008.
Cobb, K. M., Westphal, N., Sayani, H. R., Watson, J. T., Di Lorenzo, E., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., and Charles, C. D.: Highly variable El Niño-Southern Oscillation throughout the Holocene, Science, 339, 67–70, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1228246, 2013.
Constable, A. J., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Corney, S. P., Arrigo, K. R., Barbraud, C., Barnes, D. K. A., Bindoff, N. L., Boyd, P. W., Brandt, A., Costa, D. P., Davidson, A. T., Ducklow, H. W., Emmerson, L., Fukuchi, M., Gutt, J., Hindell, M. A., Hofmann, E. E., Hosie, G. W., Iida, T., Jacob, S., Johnston, N. M., Kawaguchi, S., Kokubun, N., Koubbi, P., Lea, M.-A., Makhado, A., Massom, R. A., Meiners, K., Meredith, M. P., Murphy, E. J., Nicol, S., Reid, K., Richerson, K., Riddle, M. J., Rintoul, S. R., Smith, W. O., Southwell, C., Stark, J. S., Sumner, M., Swadling, K. M., Takahashi, K. T., Trathan, P. N., Welsford, D. C., Weimerskirch, H., Westwood, K. J., Wienecke, B. C., Wolf-Gladrow, D., Wright, S. W., Xavier, J. C., and Ziegler, P.: Climate change and Southern Ocean ecosystems I: how changes in physical habitats directly affect marine biota, Glob. Change Biol., 20, 3004–3025, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12623, 2014.
Cook, E. R. and Kairiukstis, L. A.: Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, 1990.
Cook, E. R. and Peters, K.: Calculating unbiased tree-ring indices for the study of climatic and environmental change, Holocene, 7, 361–370, https://doi.org/10.1177/095968369700700314, 1997.
Cunningham, D. and Moors, P.: The decline of Rockhopper penguins Eudyptes chrysocome at Campbell Island, Southern Ocean and the influence of rising sea temperatures, Emu, 94, 27–36, https://doi.org/10.1071/MU9940027, 1994.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J. J., Park, B. K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J. N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Ding, Q., Steig, E. J., Battisti, D. S., and Wallace, J. M.: Influence of the tropics on the Southern Annular Mode, J. Climate, 25, 6330–6348, 2012.
Dubinkina, S. and Goosse, H.: An assessment of particle filtering methods and nudging for climate state reconstructions, Clim. Past, 9, 1141–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, 2013.
Fogt, R. L., Jones, J. M., and Renwick, J.: Seasonal zonal asymmetries in the Southern Annular Mode and their impact on regional temperature anomalies, J. Climate, 25, 6253–6270, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00474.1, 2012.
Freitas, A. C., Frederiksen, J. S., Whelan, J., O'Kane, T. J., and Ambrizzi, T.: Observed and simulated inter-decadal changes in the structure of Southern Hemisphere large-scale circulation, Clim. Dynam., 45, 2993–3017, 2015.
Friedman, J. H.: A Variable Span Smoother, Laboratory for Computational Statistics, Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, California, 1984.
Goosse, H. and Fichefet, T.: Importance of ice-ocean interactions for the global ocean circulation: A model study, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 23337–23355, 1999.
Goosse, H. and Renssen, H.: A simulated reduction in Antarctic sea-ice area since 1750: implications of the long memory of the ocean, International J. Climatol., 25, 569–579, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1139, 2005.
Goosse, H. and Zunz, V.: Decadal trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice–ocean feedback, The Cryosphere, 8, 453–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, 2014.
Goosse, H., Renssen, H., Timmermann, A., Bradley, R., and Mann, M.: Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium, Clim. Dynam., 27, 165–184, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0128-6, 2006.
Goosse, H., Brovkin, V., Fichefet, T., Haarsma, R., Huybrechts, P., Jongma, J., Mouchet, A., Selten, F., Barriat, P.-Y., Campin, J.-M., Deleersnijder, E., Driesschaert, E., Goelzer, H., Janssens, I., Loutre, M.-F., Morales Maqueda, M. A., Opsteegh, T., Mathieu, P.-P., Munhoven, G., Pettersson, E. J., Renssen, H., Roche, D. M., Schaeffer, M., Tartinville, B., Timmermann, A., and Weber, S. L.: Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 603–633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-603-2010, 2010.
Harsch, M. A., McGlone, M. S., and Wilmshurst, J.: Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment, PLoS ONE, 9, e93241, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0093241, 2014.
Hindell, M. A. and Burton, H. R.: Past and present status of the southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) at Macquarie Island, J. Zool., 213, 365–380, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-7998.1987.tb03712.x, 1987.
Hiscock, J. A. and Chilvers, B. L.: Declining eastern rockhopper (Eudyptes filholi) and erect-crested (E. sclateri) penguins on the Antipodes Islands, New Zealand, New Zeal. J. Ecol., 38, 124–131, 2014.
Hobbs, W. R., Massom, R., Stammerjohn, S., Reid, P., Williams, G., and Meier, W.: A review of recent changes in Southern Ocean sea ice, their drivers and forcings, Global Planet. Change, 143, 228–250, 2016.
Hosking, J. S., Orr, A., Marshall, G. J., Turner, J., and Phillips, T.: The influence of the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Seas Low on the climate of West Antarctica and its representation in coupled climate model simulations, J. Climate, 26, 6633–6648, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00813.1, 2013.
Jakob, D.: Challenges in developing a high-quality surface wind-speed data-set for Australia, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 60, 227–236, 2010.
Jenouvrier, S., Barbraud, C., and Weimerskirch, H.: Effects of climate variability on the temporal population dynamics of southern fulmars, J. Anim. Ecol., 72, 576–587, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2656.2003.00727.x, 2003.
Jones, J. M., Gille, S. T., Goosse, H., Abram, N. J., Canziani, P. O., Charman, D. J., Clem, K. R., Crosta, X., de Lavergne, C., Eisenman, I., England, M. H., Fogt, R. L., Frankcombe, L. M., Marshall, G. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Morrison, A. K., Orsi, A. J., Raphael, M. N., Renwick, J. A., Schneider, D. P., Simpkins, G. R., Steig, E. J., Stenni, B., Swingedouw, D., and Vance, T. R.: Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate, Nature Climate Change, 6, 917–926, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103, 2016.
Karoly, D. J.: Southern Hemisphere circulation features associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation events, J. Climate, 2, 1239–1252, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<1239:SHCFAW>2.0.CO;2, 1989.
Kestin, T. S., Karoly, D. J., Yano, J.-I., and Rayner, N. A.: Time–frequency variability of ENSO and stochastic simulations, J. Climate, 11, 2258–2272, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2258:tfvoea>2.0.co;2, 1998.
Kidson, E.: Meteorology. Discussions of Observations at Adélie Land, Queen Mary Land and Macquarie Island, Thomas Henry Tennant, Sydney, 121 pp., 1946.
Langlais, C. E., Rintoul, S. R., and Zika, J. D.: Sensitivity of Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and eddy activity to wind patterns in the Southern Ocean, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 45, 1051–1067, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-14-0053.1, 2015.
Lea, M.-A., Guinet, C., Cherel, Y., Duhamel, G., Dubroca, L., Pruvost, P., and Hindell, M.: Impacts of climatic anomalies on provisioning strategies of a Southern Ocean predator, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 310, 77–94, 2006.
Loewe, F.: A note on the sea water temperatures at Macquarie Island, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 19, 60–61, 1957.
Loewe, F.: A further note on the sea water temperatures at Macquarie Island, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 16, 118–119, 1968.
Marshall, G.: Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses, J. Climate, 16, 4134–4143, 2003.
Masumoto, Y., Sasaki, H., Kagimoto, T., Komori, N., Ishida, A., Sasai, Y., Miyama, T., Motoi, T., Mitsudera, H., Takahashi, K., Sakuma, H., and Yamagata, T.: A fifty-year eddy-resolving simulation of the world ocean – Preliminary outcomes of OFES (OGCM for the Earth simulator), Journal of the Earth Simulator, 1, 35–56, 2004.
McGlone, M. S., Turney, C. S. M., Wilmshurst, J. M., Renwick, J., and Pahnke, K.: Divergent trends in land and ocean temperature in the Southern Ocean over the past 18,000 years, Nat. Geosci., 3, 622–626, 2010.
McMahon, C. R., Bester, M. N., Burton, H. R., Hindell, M. A., and Bradshaw, C. J. A.: Population status, trends and a re-examination of the hypotheses explaining the recent declines of the southern elephant seal Mirounga leonina, Mammal Rev., 35, 82–100, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2907.2005.00055.x, 2005.
Melvin, T. M. and Briffa, K. R.: A “signal-free” approach to dendroclimatic standardisation, Dendrochronologia, 26, 71–86, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2007.12.001, 2008.
Mo, K. C. and Higgins, R. W.: The Pacific–South American modes and tropical convection during the Southern Hemisphere winter, Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 1581–1596, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1581:TPSAMA>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Moore, P. J., Fletcher, D., and Amey, J.: Population estimates of Yellow-eyed penguins, Megadyptes antipodes, on Campbell Island, 1987–98, Emu, 101, 225–236, 2001.
Morrison, K. W., Battley, P. F., Sagar, P. M., and Thompson, D. R.: Population dynamics of Eastern Rockhopper Penguins on Campbell Island in relation to sea surface temperature 1942–2012: current warming hiatus pauses a long-term decline, Polar Biol., 38, 163–177, 2015.
Newman, B. W.: Meteorology. Tabulated and Reduced Records of the Macquarie Island Station, Alfred James Kent, Sydney, 539 pp., 1929.
Olive, D. J.: Prediction intervals for regression models?, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 51, 3115–3122, 2007.
Opsteegh, J. D., Haarsma, R. J., Selten, F. M., and Kattenberg, A.: ECBILT: a dynamic alternative to mixed boundary conditions in ocean models, Tellus A, 50, 348–367, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1998.t01-1-00007.x, 1998.
Paris, C. B., Helgers, J., van Sebille, E., and Srinivasan, A.: Connectivity Modeling System: A probabilistic modeling tool for the multi-scale tracking of biotic and abiotic variability in the ocean, Environ. Model. Softw., 42, 47–54, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.12.006, 2013.
Pritchard, H. D., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Fricker, H. A., Vaughan, D. G., van den Broeke, M. R., and Padman, L.: Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves, Nature, 484, 502–505, 2012.
Qin, X., van Sebille, E., and Sen Gupta, A.: Quantification of errors induced by temporal resolution on Lagrangian particles in an eddy-resolving model, Ocean Model., 76, 20–30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.02.002, 2014.
Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003.
Ropelewski, C. F. and Jones, P. D.: An extension of the Tahiti-Darwin Southern Oscillation Index, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 2161–2165, 1987.
Sallée, J.-B., Matear, R. J., Rintoul, S. R., and Lenton, A.: Localized subduction of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the Southern Hemisphere oceans, Nat. Geosci., 5, 579–584, 2012.
Schneider, D. P., Okumura, Y., and Deser, C.: Observed Antarctic interannual climate variability and tropical linkages, J. Climate, 25, 4048–4066, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00273.1, 2012.
Smith, T. M. and Reynolds, R. W.: A global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880–1997), J. Climate, 18, 2021–2036, 2005.
Sokolov, S. and Rintoul, S. R.: Circumpolar structure and distribution of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current fronts: 1. Mean circumpolar paths, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 114, C11018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JC005108, 2009.
Steig, E. J., Schneider, D. P., Rutherford, S. D., Mann, M. E., Comiso, J. C., and Shindell, D. T.: Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year, Nature, 457, 459–462, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07669, 2009.
Streten, N. A.: The climate of Macquarie Island and its role in atmospheric monitoring, Papers and Proceedings of the Royal Society of Tasmania, 122, 91–106, 1988.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2011.
Taylor, R. H. and Taylor, G. A.: Re-assessment of the status of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) in New Zealand, New Zeal. J. Marine and Fresh., 23, 201–213, https://doi.org/10.1080/00288330.1989.9516357, 1989.
Thomas, E. R., Marshall, G. J., and McConnell, J. R.: A doubling in snow accumulation in the western Antarctic Peninsula since 1850, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L01706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032529, 2008.
Thomas, E. R., Hosking, J. S., Tuckwell, R. R., Warren, R., and Ludlow, E.: Twentieth century increase in snowfall in coastal West Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 9387–9393, 2015.
Thompson, D. W. J., Solomon, S., Kushner, P. J., England, M. H., Grise, K. M., and Karoly, D. J.: Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change, Nat. Geosci., 4, 741–749, 2011.
Thomson, D. J.: Spectrum estimation and harmonic analysis, Proc. IEEE, 70, 1055–1096, 1982.
Trathan, P. N., Forcada, J., and Murphy, E. J.: Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: Effects of climate change and variability, Philos. T. R. Soc. B, 362, 2351–2365, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2006.1953, 2007.
Trenberth, K. E., Branstator, G. W., Karoly, D., Kumar, A., Lau, N. C., and Ropelewski, C.: Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 103, 14291–14324, 1998.
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T., Branstator, G., and Phillips, A. S.: Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming, Nature Climate Change, 4, 911–916, 2014.
Turner, J., Hosking, J. S., Marshall, G., Phillips, T., and Bracegirdle, T.: Antarctic sea ice increase consistent with intrinsic variability of the Amundsen Sea Low, Clim. Dynam., 46, 2391–2402, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2708-9, 2015.
Turner, J., Lu, H., White, I., King, J. C., Phillips, T., Hosking, J. S., Bracegirdle, T. J., Marshall, G. J., Mulvaney, R., and Deb, P.: Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability, Nature, 535, 411–415, 10.1038/nature18645, 2016.
Turney, C. S. M., Fogwill, C. J., Klekociuk, A. R., van Ommen, T. D., Curran, M. A. J., Moy, A. D., and Palmer, J. G.: Tropical and mid-latitude forcing of continental Antarctic temperatures, The Cryosphere, 9, 2405–2415, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2405-2015, 2015.
Turney, C. S. M., Jones, R. T., Lister, D., Jones, P., Williams, A. N., Hogg, A., Thomas, Z. A., Compo, G. P., Yin, X., Fogwill, C. J., Palmer, J., Colwell, S., Allan, R., and Visbeck, M.: Anomalous mid-twentieth century atmospheric circulation change over the South Atlantic compared to the last 6000 years, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 64009–64022, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064009, 2016a.
Turney, C. S. M., McGlone, M., Palmer, J., Fogwill, C., Hogg, A., Thomas, Z. A., Lipson, M., Wilmshurst, J. M., Fenwick, P., Jones, R. T., Hines, B., and Clark, G. F.: Intensification of Southern Hemisphere westerly winds 2000–1000 years ago: evidence from the subantarctic Campbell and Auckland Islands (52–50° S), J. Quaternary Sci., 31, 12–19, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.2828, 2016b.
van den Hoff, J., Burton, H., and Raymond, B.: The population trend of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina L.) at Macquarie Island (1952–2004), Polar Biology, 30, 1275–1283, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-007-0288-9, 2007.
van Sebille, E., England, M. H., Zika, J. D., and Sloyan, B. M.: Tasman leakage in a fine-resolution ocean model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06601, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051004, 2012.
Visbeck, M.: A station-based Southern Annular Mode Index from 1884 to 2005, J. Climate, 22, 940–950, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2260.1, 2009.
Wang, G. and Dommenget, D.: The leading modes of decadal SST variability in the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 simulations, Clim. Dynam., 47, 1775–1792, 2016.
Wang, G., Dommenget, D., and Frauen, C.: An evaluation of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations in their skill of simulating the spatial structure of SST variability, Clim. Dynam., 44, 95–114, 2015.
Wang, J., Mazloff, M. R., and Gille, S. T.: Pathways of the Agulhas waters poleward of 29° S, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 119, 4234–4250, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010049, 2014.
Weimerskirch, H., Inchausti, P., Guinet, C., and Barbraud, C.: Trends in bird and seal populations as indicators of a system shift in the Southern Ocean, Antarct. Sci., 15, 249–256, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954102003001202, 2003.
Wilmshurst, J. M., Bestic, K. L., Meurk, C. D., and McGlone, M. S.: Recent spread of Dracophyllum scrub on subantarctic Campbell Island, New Zealand: climatic or anthropogenic origins?, J. Biogeogr., 31, 401–413, 2004.
Wu, L., Cai, W., Zhang, L., Nakamura, H., Timmermann, A., Joyce, T., McPhaden, M. J., Alexander, M., Qiu, B., Visbeck, M., Chang, P., and Giese, B.: Enhanced warming over the global subtropical western boundary currents, Nature Climate Change, 2, 161–166, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1353, 2012.
Zang, C. and Biondi, F.: Dendroclimatic calibration in R: The bootRes package for response and correlation function analysis, Dendrochronologia, 13, 68–74, 2012.
Zunz, V. and Goosse, H.: Influence of freshwater input on the skill of decadal forecast of sea ice in the Southern Ocean, The Cryosphere, 9, 541–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, 2015.
Zunz, V., Goosse, H., and Massonnet, F.: How does internal variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce the recent trend in Southern Ocean sea ice extent?, The Cryosphere, 7, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, 2013
Short summary
The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in global climate but suffers from a dearth of observational data. As the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013–2014 we have developed the first annually resolved temperature record using trees from subantarctic southwest Pacific (52–54˚S) to extend the climate record back to 1870. With modelling we show today's high climate variability became established in the ~1940s and likely driven by a Rossby wave response originating from the tropical Pacific.
The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in global climate but suffers from a dearth of...
