Articles | Volume 13, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives
Niklas Boers
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Geosciences Department and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Brandenburg, Germany
PSL Research University, Paris, France
Bedartha Goswami
Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Michael Ghil
Geosciences Department and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, USA
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Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD
Short summary
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The late Pleistocene glacial cycles are dominated by a 100-kyr periodicity, rather than other major astronomical periods like 19, 23, 41, or 400 kyr. Various models propose distinct mechanisms to explain this, but their diversity may obscure the key factor behind the 100-kyr periodicity. We propose a time-scale matching hypothesis, suggesting that the ice-sheet climate system responds to astronomical forcing at ~100 kyr because its intrinsic timescale is closer to 100 kyr than to other periods.
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We revisit early warning signals (EWS) for past abrupt climate changes known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. Using advanced statistical methods, we find fewer significant EWS than previously reported. While some signals appear consistent across Greenland ice core records, they are not enough to identify the still unknown physical mechanisms behind DO events. This study highlights the complexity of predicting climate changes and urges caution in interpreting (paleo-)climate data.
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Tipping points are abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes, and numerous approaches have been proposed to detect them in advance. Such approaches have been termed early warning signals and represent a set of methods for identifying changes in the underlying behaviour of a system across time or space that might indicate an approaching tipping point. Here, we review the literature to explore where, how, and which early warnings have been used in real-world case studies so far.
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Using the latest climate models, we update the understanding of how the Greenland ice sheet responds to climate changes. We found that precipitation and temperature changes in Greenland vary across different regions. Our findings suggest that using uniform estimates for temperature and precipitation for modelling the response of the ice sheet can overestimate ice loss in Greenland. Therefore, this study highlights the need for spatially resolved data in predicting the ice sheet's future.
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Recent work has used observations to find statistical signs that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may be approaching a collapse. We find that in complex climate models in which the AMOC does not collapse before 2100, the statistical signs that are present in the observations are not found in the 1850–2014 equivalent model time series. This indicates that the observed statistical signs are not prone to false positives.
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In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a system approaching a critical transition. Using these indicators, we identify statistical precursor signals for the Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling events recorded in two climatic proxies of three Greenland ice core records. We then provide a dynamical systems theory that bridges the gap between observing statistical precursor signals and the physical precursor signs empirically known in paleoclimate research.
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The glacial–interglacial cycles of the Quaternary exhibit 41 kyr periodicity before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) around 1.2–0.8 Myr ago and ~100 kyr periodicity after that. The mechanism generating these periodicities remains elusive. Through an analysis of an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, we show that the dominant periodicities of glacial cycles can be explained from the viewpoint of synchronization theory.
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Employing event synchronization and complex networks analysis, we reveal a cascade of heavy rainfall events, related to intense atmospheric rivers (ARs): heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in western North America (NA) that occur in the aftermath of land-falling ARs are synchronized with HPEs in central and eastern Canada with a delay of up to 12 d. Understanding the effects of ARs in the rainfall over NA will lead to better anticipating the evolution of the climate dynamics in the region.
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Differential programming is a technique that enables the automatic computation of derivatives of the output of models with respect to model parameters. Applying these techniques to Earth system modeling leverages the increasing availability of high-quality data to improve the models themselves. This can be done by either using calibration techniques that use gradient-based optimization or incorporating machine learning methods that can learn previously unresolved influences directly from data.
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Paleoclimate proxy records show that the North Atlantic climate repeatedly transitioned between two regimes during the last glacial interval. This study investigates a bivariate proxy record from a Greenland ice core which reflects past Greenland temperatures and large-scale atmospheric conditions. We reconstruct the underlying deterministic drift by estimating first-order Kramers–Moyal coefficients and identify two separate stable states in agreement with the aforementioned climatic regimes.
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Multi-instrument records with varying signal-to-noise ratios are becoming increasingly common as legacy sensors are upgraded, and data sets are modernized. Induced changes in higher-order statistics such as the autocorrelation and variance are not always well captured by cross-calibration schemes. Here we investigate using synthetic examples how strong resulting biases can be and how they can be avoided in order to make reliable statements about changes in the resilience of a system.
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In layer counted proxy records each measurement is accompanied by a timestamp typically measured by counting periodic layers. Knowledge of the uncertainty of this timestamp is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses. By assuming a Bayesian regression model to the layer increments we express the dating uncertainty by the posterior distribution, from which chronologies can be sampled efficiently. We apply our framework to dating abrupt warming transitions during the last glacial.
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Greenland ice core data show that the last glacial cycle was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts comprising significant warming over Greenland, retreat of North Atlantic sea ice, and atmospheric reorganization. Statistical analysis of multi-proxy records reveals no systematic lead or lag between the transitions of proxies that represent different climatic subsystems, and hence no evidence for a potential trigger of these so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger events can be found.
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We use a Bayesian approach for inferring inverse, stochastic–dynamic models from northern Greenland (NGRIP) oxygen and dust records of subdecadal resolution for the interval 59 to 22 ka b2k. Our model reproduces the statistical and dynamical characteristics of the records, including the Dansgaard–Oeschger variability, with no need for external forcing. The crucial ingredients are cubic drift terms, nonlinear coupling terms between the oxygen and dust time series, and non-Markovian contributions.
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Anders Svensson, Matthias Bigler, Adriana Sima, Jorgen Peder Steffensen, and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 13, 1181–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1181-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1181-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the analysis of δ18O and dust in the Greenland ice cores, and a critical study of their source variations, reconciles these records with those observed on the Eurasian continent. We demonstrate the link between European and Chinese loess sequences, dust records in Greenland, and variations in the North Atlantic sea ice extent. The sources of the emitted and transported dust material are variable and relate to different environments.
Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
The late Pleistocene glacial cycles are dominated by a 100-kyr periodicity, rather than other major astronomical periods like 19, 23, 41, or 400 kyr. Various models propose distinct mechanisms to explain this, but their diversity may obscure the key factor behind the 100-kyr periodicity. We propose a time-scale matching hypothesis, suggesting that the ice-sheet climate system responds to astronomical forcing at ~100 kyr because its intrinsic timescale is closer to 100 kyr than to other periods.
Clara Hummel, Niklas Boers, and Martin Rypdal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3567, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We revisit early warning signals (EWS) for past abrupt climate changes known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. Using advanced statistical methods, we find fewer significant EWS than previously reported. While some signals appear consistent across Greenland ice core records, they are not enough to identify the still unknown physical mechanisms behind DO events. This study highlights the complexity of predicting climate changes and urges caution in interpreting (paleo-)climate data.
Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, Beatriz Arellano-Nava, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1117–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tipping points are abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes, and numerous approaches have been proposed to detect them in advance. Such approaches have been termed early warning signals and represent a set of methods for identifying changes in the underlying behaviour of a system across time or space that might indicate an approaching tipping point. Here, we review the literature to explore where, how, and which early warnings have been used in real-world case studies so far.
Nils Bochow, Anna Poltronieri, and Niklas Boers
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1597, 2024
Short summary
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Using the latest climate models, we update the understanding of how the Greenland ice sheet responds to climate changes. We found that precipitation and temperature changes in Greenland vary across different regions. Our findings suggest that using uniform estimates for temperature and precipitation for modelling the response of the ice sheet can overestimate ice loss in Greenland. Therefore, this study highlights the need for spatially resolved data in predicting the ice sheet's future.
Maya Ben-Yami, Lana Blaschke, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1106, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Recent work has used observations to find statistical signs that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may be approaching a collapse. We find that in complex climate models in which the AMOC does not collapse before 2100, the statistical signs that are present in the observations are not found in the 1850–2014 equivalent model time series. This indicates that the observed statistical signs are not prone to false positives.
Takahito Mitsui and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 20, 683–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a system approaching a critical transition. Using these indicators, we identify statistical precursor signals for the Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling events recorded in two climatic proxies of three Greenland ice core records. We then provide a dynamical systems theory that bridges the gap between observing statistical precursor signals and the physical precursor signs empirically known in paleoclimate research.
Takahito Mitsui, Matteo Willeit, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1277–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The glacial–interglacial cycles of the Quaternary exhibit 41 kyr periodicity before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) around 1.2–0.8 Myr ago and ~100 kyr periodicity after that. The mechanism generating these periodicities remains elusive. Through an analysis of an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, we show that the dominant periodicities of glacial cycles can be explained from the viewpoint of synchronization theory.
Michael Ghil and Denisse Sciamarella
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 399–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The problem of climate change is that of a chaotic system subject to time-dependent forcing, such as anthropogenic greenhouse gases and natural volcanism. To solve this problem, we describe the mathematics of dynamical systems with explicit time dependence and those of studying their behavior through topological methods. Here, we show how they are being applied to climate change and its predictability.
Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Frederik Wolf, Niklas Boers, Dominik Traxl, Norbert Marwan, and Jürgen Kurths
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2645–2660, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Employing event synchronization and complex networks analysis, we reveal a cascade of heavy rainfall events, related to intense atmospheric rivers (ARs): heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in western North America (NA) that occur in the aftermath of land-falling ARs are synchronized with HPEs in central and eastern Canada with a delay of up to 12 d. Understanding the effects of ARs in the rainfall over NA will lead to better anticipating the evolution of the climate dynamics in the region.
Maximilian Gelbrecht, Alistair White, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3123–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Differential programming is a technique that enables the automatic computation of derivatives of the output of models with respect to model parameters. Applying these techniques to Earth system modeling leverages the increasing availability of high-quality data to improve the models themselves. This can be done by either using calibration techniques that use gradient-based optimization or incorporating machine learning methods that can learn previously unresolved influences directly from data.
Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Forough Hassanibesheli, Pedro G. Lind, Dirk Witthaut, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 593–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate proxy records show that the North Atlantic climate repeatedly transitioned between two regimes during the last glacial interval. This study investigates a bivariate proxy record from a Greenland ice core which reflects past Greenland temperatures and large-scale atmospheric conditions. We reconstruct the underlying deterministic drift by estimating first-order Kramers–Moyal coefficients and identify two separate stable states in agreement with the aforementioned climatic regimes.
Taylor Smith, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Chris A. Boulton, Timothy M. Lenton, Wouter Dorigo, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 173–183, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-instrument records with varying signal-to-noise ratios are becoming increasingly common as legacy sensors are upgraded, and data sets are modernized. Induced changes in higher-order statistics such as the autocorrelation and variance are not always well captured by cross-calibration schemes. Here we investigate using synthetic examples how strong resulting biases can be and how they can be avoided in order to make reliable statements about changes in the resilience of a system.
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers, Martin Wibe Rypdal, and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 18, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In layer counted proxy records each measurement is accompanied by a timestamp typically measured by counting periodic layers. Knowledge of the uncertainty of this timestamp is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses. By assuming a Bayesian regression model to the layer increments we express the dating uncertainty by the posterior distribution, from which chronologies can be sampled efficiently. We apply our framework to dating abrupt warming transitions during the last glacial.
Keno Riechers, Takahito Mitsui, Niklas Boers, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 18, 863–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Building upon Milancovic's theory of orbital forcing, this paper reviews the interplay between intrinsic variability and external forcing in the emergence of glacial interglacial cycles. It provides the reader with historical background information and with basic theoretical concepts used in recent paleoclimate research. Moreover, it presents new results which confirm the reduced stability of glacial-cycle dynamics after the mid-Pleistocene transition.
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Witold Bagniewski, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 18, 249–271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-249-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-249-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The study of abrupt climate changes is a relatively new field of research that addresses paleoclimate variations that occur in intervals of tens to hundreds of years. Such timescales are much shorter than the tens to hundreds of thousands of years that the astronomical theory of climate addresses. We revisit several high-resolution proxy records of the past 3.2 Myr and show that the abrupt climate changes are nevertheless affected by the orbitally induced insolation changes.
Eviatar Bach and Michael Ghil
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2021-35, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2021-35, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Data assimilation (DA) is the process of combining model forecasts with observations in order to provide an optimal estimate of the system state. When models are imperfect, the uncertainty in the forecasts may be underestimated, requiring inflation of the corresponding error covariance. Here, we present a simple method for estimating the magnitude and structure of the model error covariance matrix. We demonstrate the efficacy of this method with idealized experiments.
Keno Riechers and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 17, 1751–1775, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland ice core data show that the last glacial cycle was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts comprising significant warming over Greenland, retreat of North Atlantic sea ice, and atmospheric reorganization. Statistical analysis of multi-proxy records reveals no systematic lead or lag between the transitions of proxies that represent different climatic subsystems, and hence no evidence for a potential trigger of these so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger events can be found.
Abhirup Banerjee, Bedartha Goswami, Yoshito Hirata, Deniz Eroglu, Bruno Merz, Jürgen Kurths, and Norbert Marwan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 213–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-213-2021, 2021
Michael Ghil
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 429–451, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-429-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The scientific questions posed by the climate sciences are central to socioeconomic concerns today. This paper revisits several crucial questions, starting with
What can we predict beyond 1 week, for how long, and by what methods?, and ending with
Can we achieve enlightened climate control of our planet by the end of the century?We review the progress in dealing with the nonlinearity and stochasticity of the Earth system and emphasize major strides in coupled climate–economy modeling.
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Pierre Antoine, Niklas Boers, France Lagroix, Michael Ghil, Johanna Lomax, Markus Fuchs, Maxime Debret, Christine Hatté, Olivier Moine, Caroline Gauthier, Diana Jordanova, and Neli Jordanova
Clim. Past, 16, 713–727, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-713-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-713-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
New investigations of European loess records from MIS 6 reveal the occurrence of paleosols and horizon showing slight pedogenesis similar to those from the last climatic cycle. These units are correlated with interstadials described in various marine, continental, and ice Northern Hemisphere records. Therefore, these MIS 6 interstadials can confidently be interpreted as DO-like events of the penultimate climate cycle.
Stefano Pierini, Mickaël D. Chekroun, and Michael Ghil
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 671–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-671-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-671-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A four-dimensional nonlinear spectral ocean model is used to study the transition to chaos induced by periodic forcing in systems that are nonchaotic in the autonomous limit. The analysis makes use of ensemble simulations and of the system's pullback attractors. A new diagnostic method characterizes the transition to chaos: this is found to occur abruptly at a critical value and begins with the intermittent emergence of periodic oscillations with distinct phases.
Niklas Boers, Mickael D. Chekroun, Honghu Liu, Dmitri Kondrashov, Denis-Didier Rousseau, Anders Svensson, Matthias Bigler, and Michael Ghil
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1171–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1171-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1171-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We use a Bayesian approach for inferring inverse, stochastic–dynamic models from northern Greenland (NGRIP) oxygen and dust records of subdecadal resolution for the interval 59 to 22 ka b2k. Our model reproduces the statistical and dynamical characteristics of the records, including the Dansgaard–Oeschger variability, with no need for external forcing. The crucial ingredients are cubic drift terms, nonlinear coupling terms between the oxygen and dust time series, and non-Markovian contributions.
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Anders Svensson, Matthias Bigler, Adriana Sima, Jorgen Peder Steffensen, and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 13, 1181–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1181-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1181-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the analysis of δ18O and dust in the Greenland ice cores, and a critical study of their source variations, reconciles these records with those observed on the Eurasian continent. We demonstrate the link between European and Chinese loess sequences, dust records in Greenland, and variations in the North Atlantic sea ice extent. The sources of the emitted and transported dust material are variable and relate to different environments.
Keroboto B. Z. Ogutu, Fabio D'Andrea, Michael Ghil, and Charles Nyandwi
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-64, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-64, 2017
Preprint retracted
Short summary
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The CoCEB model is used to evaluate hypotheses on the long-term effect of investment in emission abatement, and on the comparative efficacy of different approaches to abatement. While many studies in the literature treat abatement costs as an unproductive loss of income, we show that mitigation costs do slow down economic growth over the next few decades, but only up to the mid-21st century or even earlier; growth reduction is compensated later on by having avoided climate negative impacts.
J. Rombouts and M. Ghil
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 275–288, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-275-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-275-2015, 2015
Short summary
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Our conceptual model describes global temperature and vegetation extent. We use elements from Daisyworld and classical energy balance models and add an ocean with sea ice. The model exhibits oscillatory behavior within a plausible range of parameter values.
Its periodic solutions have sawtooth behavior that is characteristic of relaxation oscillations, as well as suggestive of Quaternary glaciation cycles. The model is one of the simplest of its kind to produce such oscillatory behavior.
B. Goswami, J. Heitzig, K. Rehfeld, N. Marwan, A. Anoop, S. Prasad, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 1093–1111, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1093-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1093-2014, 2014
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We present a new approach to estimating sedimentary proxy records along with the proxy uncertainty. We provide analytical expressions for the proxy record, while transparently propagating uncertainties from the ages to the proxy record. We represent proxies on an error-free, precise timescale. Our approach provides insight into the interrelations between proxy variability and the various uncertainties. We demonstrate our method with synthetic examples and proxy data from the Lonar lake in India.
D.-D. Rousseau, M. Ghil, G. Kukla, A. Sima, P. Antoine, M. Fuchs, C. Hatté, F. Lagroix, M. Debret, and O. Moine
Clim. Past, 9, 2213–2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2213-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2213-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Ice Cores | Timescale: Millenial/D-O
Estimating biases during detection of leads and lags between climate elements across Dansgaard–Oeschger events
Continuous synchronization of the Greenland ice-core and U–Th timescales using probabilistic inversion
Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions
Synchronizing ice-core and U ∕ Th timescales in the Last Glacial Maximum using Hulu Cave 14C and new 10Be measurements from Greenland and Antarctica
Assessing the statistical uniqueness of the Younger Dryas: a robust multivariate analysis
The SP19 chronology for the South Pole Ice Core – Part 2: gas chronology, Δage, and smoothing of atmospheric records
Decadal-scale progression of the onset of Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events
Climatic and insolation control on the high-resolution total air content in the NGRIP ice core
Variability of sulfate signal in ice core records based on five replicate cores
Simulating ice core 10Be on the glacial–interglacial timescale
Evidence for a three-phase sequence during Heinrich Stadial 4 using a multiproxy approach based on Greenland ice core records
Dansgaard–Oeschger events: bifurcation points in the climate system
An automated approach for annual layer counting in ice cores
Duration of Greenland Stadial 22 and ice-gas Δage from counting of annual layers in Greenland NGRIP ice core
Past surface temperatures at the NorthGRIP drill site from the difference in firn diffusion of water isotopes
Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ18O data
John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Francesco Muschitiello, and Keno Riechers
Clim. Past, 20, 2431–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024, 2024
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Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a series of abrupt past climate change events during which the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean in the North Atlantic underwent rapid changes. One current topic of interest is the order in which these different changes occurred, which remains unknown. In this work, we find that the current best method used to investigate this topic is subject to substantial bias. This implies that it is not possible to reliably determine the order of the different changes.
Francesco Muschitiello and Marco Antonio Aquino-Lopez
Clim. Past, 20, 1415–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1415-2024, 2024
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The first continuously measured transfer functions that quantify the age difference between the Greenland ice-core chronology 2005 (GICC05) and the U–Th timescale are presented. The transfer functions were generated using a novel probabilistic algorithm for the synchronization of proxy signals. The results greatly improve the accuracy and precision of previous synchronization estimates and reveal that the annual-layer counting error of GICC05 is less systematic than previously assumed.
Takahito Mitsui and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 20, 683–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, 2024
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In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a system approaching a critical transition. Using these indicators, we identify statistical precursor signals for the Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling events recorded in two climatic proxies of three Greenland ice core records. We then provide a dynamical systems theory that bridges the gap between observing statistical precursor signals and the physical precursor signs empirically known in paleoclimate research.
Giulia Sinnl, Florian Adolphi, Marcus Christl, Kees C. Welten, Thomas Woodruff, Marc Caffee, Anders Svensson, Raimund Muscheler, and Sune Olander Rasmussen
Clim. Past, 19, 1153–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1153-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1153-2023, 2023
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The record of past climate is preserved by several archives from different regions, such as ice cores from Greenland or Antarctica or speleothems from caves such as the Hulu Cave in China. In this study, these archives are aligned by taking advantage of the globally synchronous production of cosmogenic radionuclides. This produces a new perspective on the global climate in the period between 20 000 and 25 000 years ago.
Henry Nye and Alan Condron
Clim. Past, 17, 1409–1421, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1409-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1409-2021, 2021
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This paper analyzes the uniqueness of a paleoclimate event entitled the Bølling–Allerød Younger Dryas (BA/YD) through a statistical lens in order to better understand its relation to other events similar to it. Furthermore, we implement a novel statistical method entitled PCOut in order to measure the BA/YD's various elements of uniqueness in existing paleoclimate records. We suggest future use of this method for paleoclimate research that aims to assess uniqueness across multiple criteria.
Jenna A. Epifanio, Edward J. Brook, Christo Buizert, Jon S. Edwards, Todd A. Sowers, Emma C. Kahle, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Eric J. Steig, Dominic A. Winski, Erich C. Osterberg, Tyler J. Fudge, Murat Aydin, Ekaterina Hood, Michael Kalk, Karl J. Kreutz, David G. Ferris, and Joshua A. Kennedy
Clim. Past, 16, 2431–2444, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2431-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2431-2020, 2020
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A new ice core drilled at the South Pole provides a 54 000-year paleo-environmental record including the composition of the past atmosphere. This paper describes the gas chronology for the South Pole ice core, based on a high-resolution methane record. The new gas chronology, in combination with the existing ice age scale from Winski et al. (2019), allows a model-independent reconstruction of the delta age record.
Tobias Erhardt, Emilie Capron, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Simon Schüpbach, Matthias Bigler, Florian Adolphi, and Hubertus Fischer
Clim. Past, 15, 811–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-811-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-811-2019, 2019
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The cause of the rapid warming events documented in proxy records across the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial has been a long-standing puzzle in paleo-climate research. Here, we use high-resolution ice-core data from to cores in Greenland to investigate the progression during the onset of these events on multi-annual timescales to test their plausible triggers. We show that atmospheric circulation changes preceded the warming in Greenland and the collapse of the sea ice by a decade.
Olivier Eicher, Matthias Baumgartner, Adrian Schilt, Jochen Schmitt, Jakob Schwander, Thomas F. Stocker, and Hubertus Fischer
Clim. Past, 12, 1979–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1979-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1979-2016, 2016
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A new high-resolution total air content record over the NGRIP ice core, spanning 0.3–120 kyr is presented. In agreement with Antarctic ice cores, we find a strong local insolation signature but also 3–5 % decreases in total air content as a local response to Dansgaard–Oeschger events, which can only partly be explained by changes in surface pressure and temperature. Accordingly, a dynamic response of firnification to rapid climate changes on the Greenland ice sheet must have occurred.
E. Gautier, J. Savarino, J. Erbland, A. Lanciki, and P. Possenti
Clim. Past, 12, 103–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-103-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-103-2016, 2016
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We evaluate the local-scale variability of a sulfate profile at a low-accumulation site (Dome C, Antarctica) to assess the representativeness of one ice core for volcanic reconstructions. Peak statistical occurrence, depth and flux variability are evaluated from five cores. Due to local-scale variability, 64 volcanic peaks can be identified by a five-cores analysis, while only half of them can be assessed from two cores. Using five cores, the uncertainty of the mean flux is reduced to 29 %.
C. Elsässer, D. Wagenbach, I. Levin, A. Stanzick, M. Christl, A. Wallner, S. Kipfstuhl, I. K. Seierstad, H. Wershofen, and J. Dibb
Clim. Past, 11, 115–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-115-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-115-2015, 2015
M. Guillevic, L. Bazin, A. Landais, C. Stowasser, V. Masson-Delmotte, T. Blunier, F. Eynaud, S. Falourd, E. Michel, B. Minster, T. Popp, F. Prié, and B. M. Vinther
Clim. Past, 10, 2115–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2115-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2115-2014, 2014
A. A. Cimatoribus, S. S. Drijfhout, V. Livina, and G. van der Schrier
Clim. Past, 9, 323–333, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-323-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-323-2013, 2013
M. Winstrup, A. M. Svensson, S. O. Rasmussen, O. Winther, E. J. Steig, and A. E. Axelrod
Clim. Past, 8, 1881–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1881-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1881-2012, 2012
P. Vallelonga, G. Bertagna, T. Blunier, H. A. Kjær, T. J. Popp, S. O. Rasmussen, J. P. Steffensen, C. Stowasser, A. S. Svensson, E. Warming, M. Winstrup, M. Bigler, and S. Kipfstuhl
Clim. Past, 8, 1839–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1839-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1839-2012, 2012
S. B. Simonsen, S. J. Johnsen, T. J. Popp, B. M. Vinther, V. Gkinis, and H. C. Steen-Larsen
Clim. Past, 7, 1327–1335, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1327-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1327-2011, 2011
D. Peavoy and C. Franzke
Clim. Past, 6, 787–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010, 2010
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Short summary
We introduce a Bayesian framework to represent layer-counted proxy records as probability distributions on error-free time axes, accounting for both proxy and dating errors. Our method is applied to NGRIP δ18O data, revealing that the cumulative dating errors lead to substantial uncertainties for the older parts of the record. Applying our method to the widely used radiocarbon comparison curve derived from varved sediments of Lake Suigetsu provides the complete uncertainties of this curve.
We introduce a Bayesian framework to represent layer-counted proxy records as probability...