Articles | Volume 13, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Sep 2017
Research article |
| 19 Sep 2017
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives
Niklas Boers
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Geosciences Department and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Brandenburg, Germany
PSL Research University, Paris, France
Bedartha Goswami
Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Michael Ghil
Geosciences Department and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, USA
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20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The PaleoJump database for abrupt transitions in past climates W. Bagniewski et al. 10.1038/s41598-023-30592-1
- An information-theoretic approach to extracting climate signals from deep polar ice cores J. Garland et al. 10.1063/1.5127211
- Ocean surface and bottom water conditions, iceberg drift and sediment transport on the North Iceland margin during MIS 3 and MIS 2 J. Andrews et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106722
- Automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records W. Bagniewski et al. 10.1063/5.0062543
- Anomaly Detection in Paleoclimate Records Using Permutation Entropy J. Garland et al. 10.3390/e20120931
- Orbital insolation variations, intrinsic climate variability, and Quaternary glaciations K. Riechers et al. 10.5194/cp-18-863-2022
- A ~240 ka record of Ice Sheet and Ocean interactions on the Snorri Drift, SW of Iceland J. Andrews et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103498
- What we talk about when we talk about seasonality – A transdisciplinary review O. Kwiecien et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103843
- A reliable benchmark of the last 640,000 years millennial climate variability D. Rousseau et al. 10.1038/s41598-023-49115-z
- Early-warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events in a high-resolution ice core record N. Boers 10.1038/s41467-018-04881-7
- A Bayesian approach to integrating radiometric dating and varve measurements in intermittently indistinct sediment S. Arcusa et al. 10.5194/gchron-4-409-2022
- A Review of Statistics in Palaeoenvironmental Research M. Blaauw et al. 10.1007/s13253-019-00374-2
- geoChronR – an R package to model, analyze, and visualize age-uncertain data N. McKay et al. 10.5194/gchron-3-149-2021
- A spectral approach to estimating the timescale-dependent uncertainty of paleoclimate records – Part 1: Theoretical concept T. Kunz et al. 10.5194/cp-16-1469-2020
- Extreme events in biological, societal, and earth sciences: A systematic review of the literature M. Stewart et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.786829
- Sum things are not what they seem: Problems with point-wise interpretations and quantitative analyses of proxies based on aggregated radiocarbon dates W. Carleton & H. Groucutt 10.1177/0959683620981700
- Reliability of vegetation resilience estimates depends on biomass density T. Smith & N. Boers 10.1038/s41559-023-02194-7
- Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records E. Myrvoll-Nilsen et al. 10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022
- Simple noise estimates and pseudoproxies for the last 21 000 years O. Bothe et al. 10.5194/essd-11-1129-2019
- Multiple varve chronologies for the last 2000 years from the sediments of Lake Żabińskie (northeastern Poland) – Comparison of strategies for varve counting and uncertainty estimations M. Żarczyński et al. 10.1016/j.quageo.2018.06.001
19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The PaleoJump database for abrupt transitions in past climates W. Bagniewski et al. 10.1038/s41598-023-30592-1
- An information-theoretic approach to extracting climate signals from deep polar ice cores J. Garland et al. 10.1063/1.5127211
- Ocean surface and bottom water conditions, iceberg drift and sediment transport on the North Iceland margin during MIS 3 and MIS 2 J. Andrews et al. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106722
- Automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records W. Bagniewski et al. 10.1063/5.0062543
- Anomaly Detection in Paleoclimate Records Using Permutation Entropy J. Garland et al. 10.3390/e20120931
- Orbital insolation variations, intrinsic climate variability, and Quaternary glaciations K. Riechers et al. 10.5194/cp-18-863-2022
- A ~240 ka record of Ice Sheet and Ocean interactions on the Snorri Drift, SW of Iceland J. Andrews et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103498
- What we talk about when we talk about seasonality – A transdisciplinary review O. Kwiecien et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103843
- A reliable benchmark of the last 640,000 years millennial climate variability D. Rousseau et al. 10.1038/s41598-023-49115-z
- Early-warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events in a high-resolution ice core record N. Boers 10.1038/s41467-018-04881-7
- A Bayesian approach to integrating radiometric dating and varve measurements in intermittently indistinct sediment S. Arcusa et al. 10.5194/gchron-4-409-2022
- A Review of Statistics in Palaeoenvironmental Research M. Blaauw et al. 10.1007/s13253-019-00374-2
- geoChronR – an R package to model, analyze, and visualize age-uncertain data N. McKay et al. 10.5194/gchron-3-149-2021
- A spectral approach to estimating the timescale-dependent uncertainty of paleoclimate records – Part 1: Theoretical concept T. Kunz et al. 10.5194/cp-16-1469-2020
- Extreme events in biological, societal, and earth sciences: A systematic review of the literature M. Stewart et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.786829
- Sum things are not what they seem: Problems with point-wise interpretations and quantitative analyses of proxies based on aggregated radiocarbon dates W. Carleton & H. Groucutt 10.1177/0959683620981700
- Reliability of vegetation resilience estimates depends on biomass density T. Smith & N. Boers 10.1038/s41559-023-02194-7
- Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records E. Myrvoll-Nilsen et al. 10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022
- Simple noise estimates and pseudoproxies for the last 21 000 years O. Bothe et al. 10.5194/essd-11-1129-2019
Latest update: 23 Nov 2024
Short summary
We introduce a Bayesian framework to represent layer-counted proxy records as probability distributions on error-free time axes, accounting for both proxy and dating errors. Our method is applied to NGRIP δ18O data, revealing that the cumulative dating errors lead to substantial uncertainties for the older parts of the record. Applying our method to the widely used radiocarbon comparison curve derived from varved sediments of Lake Suigetsu provides the complete uncertainties of this curve.
We introduce a Bayesian framework to represent layer-counted proxy records as probability...
