A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives

Boers, Niklas; Goswami, Bedartha; Ghil, Michael

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017

Articles | Volume 13, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 13, issue 9

Research article

|

19 Sep 2017

Research article |

| 19 Sep 2017

A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives

Niklas Boers, Bedartha Goswami, and Michael Ghil

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Final revised paper (published on 19 Sep 2017)
Preprint (discussion started on 19 May 2017)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

AC1: 'Correction to Figure 2C', Niklas Boers, 26 May 2017
- AC2: 'Responses to Referee 1', Niklas Boers, 31 Jul 2017
RC1: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #1, 22 Jun 2017
- AC3: 'Responses to Referee 1', Niklas Boers, 31 Jul 2017
RC2: 'Review of cp-2017-70', Anonymous Referee #2, 23 Jun 2017
- AC4: 'Responses to Referee 2', Niklas Boers, 31 Jul 2017

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish as is (15 Aug 2017) by Dominik Fleitmann

AR by Niklas Boers on behalf of the Authors (15 Aug 2017) Author's response Manuscript

Short summary

We introduce a Bayesian framework to represent layer-counted proxy records as probability distributions on error-free time axes, accounting for both proxy and dating errors. Our method is applied to NGRIP δ¹⁸O data, revealing that the cumulative dating errors lead to substantial uncertainties for the older parts of the record. Applying our method to the widely used radiocarbon comparison curve derived from varved sediments of Lake Suigetsu provides the complete uncertainties of this curve.