Articles | Volume 11, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Oct 2015
Research article |
| 13 Oct 2015
Stability of ENSO and its tropical Pacific teleconnections over the Last Millennium
Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Australia
A. N. LeGrande
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA
Related authors
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Folmer Krikken, Sophie Lewis, Nicholas J. Leach, Flavio Lehner, Kate R. Saunders, Michiel van Weele, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, David Wallom, Sarah Sparrow, Julie Arrighi, Roop K. Singh, Maarten K. van Aalst, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Robert Vautard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
Sophie C. Lewis, Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, and Andrew D. King
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 5, 133–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-5-133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-5-133-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme temperature and precipitation events in Australia have caused significant socio-economic and environmental impacts. Determining the factors contributing to these extremes is an active area of research. This paper describes a set of studies that have examined the causes of extreme climate events in recent years in Australia. Ideally, this review will be useful for the application of these extreme event attribution approaches to climate and weather extremes occurring elsewhere.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Ram Singh, Alexander Koch, Allegra N. LeGrande, Kostas Tsigaridis, Riovie D. Ramos, Francis Ludlow, Igor Aleinov, Reto Ruedy, and Jed O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-219, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents and demonstrates an experimental framework for asynchronous land-atmosphere coupling using the NASA GISS ModelE and LPJ-LMfire models for the 2.5ka period. This framework addresses the limitation of NASA ModelE, which does not have a fully dynamic vegetation model component. It also shows the role of model performance metrics, such as model bias and variability, and the simulated climate is evaluated against the multi-proxy paleoclimate reconstructions for the 2.5ka climate.
Helen Weierbach, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Kostas Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15491–15505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15491-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15491-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic aerosols impact global and regional climate conditions but can vary depending on pre-existing initial climate conditions. We ran an ensemble of volcanic aerosol simulations under varying ENSO and NAO initial conditions to understand how initial climate states impact the modeled response to volcanic forcing. Overall we found that initial NAO conditions can impact the strength of the first winter post-eruptive response but are also affected by the choice of anomaly and sampling routine.
Ram Singh, Kostas Tsigaridis, Allegra N. LeGrande, Francis Ludlow, and Joseph G. Manning
Clim. Past, 19, 249–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work is a modeling effort to investigate the hydroclimatic impacts of a volcanic
quartetduring 168–158 BCE over the Nile River basin in the context of Ancient Egypt's Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE). The model simulated a robust surface cooling (~ 1.0–1.5 °C), suppressing the African monsoon (deficit of > 1 mm d−1 over East Africa) and agriculturally vital Nile summer flooding. Our result supports the hypothesized relation between volcanic eruptions, hydroclimatic shocks, and societal impacts.
Janica C. Bühler, Josefine Axelsson, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Jens Fohlmeister, Allegra N. LeGrande, Madhavan Midhun, Jesper Sjolte, Martin Werner, Kei Yoshimura, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 18, 1625–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We collected and standardized the output of five isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium and assess differences and similarities to records from a global speleothem database. Modeled isotope variations mostly arise from temperature differences. While lower-resolution speleothems do not capture extreme changes to the extent of models, they show higher variability on multi-decadal timescales. As no model excels in all comparisons, we advise a multi-model approach where possible.
Davide Zanchettin, Claudia Timmreck, Myriam Khodri, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Manabu Abe, Slimane Bekki, Jason Cole, Shih-Wei Fang, Wuhu Feng, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Nicolas Lebas, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Landon Rieger, Alan Robock, Sara Rubinetti, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Helen Weierbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2265–2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides metadata and first analyses of the volc-pinatubo-full experiment of CMIP6-VolMIP. Results from six Earth system models reveal significant differences in radiative flux anomalies that trace back to different implementations of volcanic forcing. Surface responses are in contrast overall consistent across models, reflecting the large spread due to internal variability. A second phase of VolMIP shall consider both aspects toward improved protocol for volc-pinatubo-full.
Sarah E. Parker, Sandy P. Harrison, Laia Comas-Bru, Nikita Kaushal, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 1119–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional trends in the oxygen isotope (δ18O) composition of stalagmites reflect several climate processes. We compare stalagmite δ18O records from monsoon regions and model simulations to identify the causes of δ18O variability over the last 12 000 years, and between glacial and interglacial states. Precipitation changes explain the glacial–interglacial δ18O changes in all monsoon regions; Holocene trends are due to a combination of precipitation, atmospheric circulation and temperature changes.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Folmer Krikken, Sophie Lewis, Nicholas J. Leach, Flavio Lehner, Kate R. Saunders, Michiel van Weele, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, David Wallom, Sarah Sparrow, Julie Arrighi, Roop K. Singh, Maarten K. van Aalst, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Robert Vautard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Sophie C. Lewis, Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, and Andrew D. King
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 5, 133–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-5-133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-5-133-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme temperature and precipitation events in Australia have caused significant socio-economic and environmental impacts. Determining the factors contributing to these extremes is an active area of research. This paper describes a set of studies that have examined the causes of extreme climate events in recent years in Australia. Ideally, this review will be useful for the application of these extreme event attribution approaches to climate and weather extremes occurring elsewhere.
Stephanie A. P. Blake, Sophie C. Lewis, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Ron L. Miller
Clim. Past, 14, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-811-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the impact of the six largest tropical eruptions in reference to
Australian precipitation, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Volcanic forcing increased the likelihood of El Niños and positive IODs (pIOD) and caused positive rainfall anomalies over north-west (NW) and south-east (SE) Australia. Larger sulfate loading caused more persistent pIOD and El Niños, enhanced precipitation over NW Australia, and dampened precipitation over SE Australia.
Lauren Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Ken S. Carslaw, Graham W. Mann, Michael Sigl, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Davide Zanchettin, William T. Ball, Slimane Bekki, James S. A. Brooke, Sandip Dhomse, Colin Johnson, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, James O. Pope, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use four global aerosol models to compare the simulated sulfate deposition from the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption to ice core records. Inter-model volcanic sulfate deposition differs considerably. Volcanic sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets is used to estimate the atmospheric sulfate burden and subsequently radiative forcing of historic eruptions. Our results suggest that deriving such relationships from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Eleni Anagnostou, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Rodrigo Caballero, Rob DeConto, Henk A. Dijkstra, Yannick Donnadieu, David Evans, Ran Feng, Gavin L. Foster, Ed Gasson, Anna S. von der Heydt, Chris J. Hollis, Gordon N. Inglis, Stephen M. Jones, Jeff Kiehl, Sandy Kirtland Turner, Robert L. Korty, Reinhardt Kozdon, Srinath Krishnan, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Petra Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Allegra N. LeGrande, Kate Littler, Paul Markwick, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Paul Pearson, Christopher J. Poulsen, Ulrich Salzmann, Christine Shields, Kathryn Snell, Michael Stärz, James Super, Clay Tabor, Jessica E. Tierney, Gregory J. L. Tourte, Aradhna Tripati, Garland R. Upchurch, Bridget S. Wade, Scott L. Wing, Arne M. E. Winguth, Nicky M. Wright, James C. Zachos, and Richard E. Zeebe
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 889–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we describe the experimental design for a set of simulations which will be carried out by a range of climate models, all investigating the climate of the Eocene, about 50 million years ago. The intercomparison of model results is called 'DeepMIP', and we anticipate that we will contribute to the next IPCC report through an analysis of these simulations and the geological data to which we will compare them.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Christopher M. Colose, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Mathias Vuille
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 681–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-681-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-681-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A band of intense rainfall exists near the equator known as the intertropical convergence zone, which can migrate in response to climate forcings. Here, we assess such migration in response to volcanic eruptions of varying spatial structure (Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, or an eruption fairly symmetric about the equator). We do this using model simulations of the last millennium and link results to energetic constraints and the imprint eruptions may leave behind in past records.
Davide Zanchettin, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Anja Schmidt, Edwin P. Gerber, Gabriele Hegerl, Alan Robock, Francesco S. R. Pausata, William T. Ball, Susanne E. Bauer, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Michael Mills, Marion Marchand, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Eugene Rozanov, Angelo Rubino, Andrea Stenke, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating volcanically-forced climate variability is a challenging task for climate models. The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) – an endorsed contribution to CMIP6 – defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability of results across different climate models. This paper illustrates the design of VolMIP's experiments and describes the aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.
Christopher M. Colose, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Mathias Vuille
Clim. Past, 12, 961–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-961-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-961-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic forcing is the most important source of forced variability during the preindustrial component of the last millennium (~ 850-1850 CE) and is important during the last century.
Here, we focus on the climate impact over South America in a model-based study. Emphasis is given to temperature, precipitation, and oxygen isotope variability (allowing for potential contact made with paleoclimate-based observations)
Here, we focus on the climate impact over South America in a model-based study. Emphasis is given to temperature, precipitation, and oxygen isotope variability (allowing for potential contact made with paleoclimate-based observations)
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Paul Hearty, Reto Ruedy, Maxwell Kelley, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Gary Russell, George Tselioudis, Junji Cao, Eric Rignot, Isabella Velicogna, Blair Tormey, Bailey Donovan, Evgeniya Kandiano, Karina von Schuckmann, Pushker Kharecha, Allegra N. Legrande, Michael Bauer, and Kwok-Wai Lo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We use climate simulations, paleoclimate data and modern observations to infer that continued high fossil fuel emissions will yield cooling of Southern Ocean and North Atlantic surfaces, slowdown and shutdown of SMOC & AMOC, increasingly powerful storms and nonlinear sea level rise reaching several meters in 50–150 years, effects missed in IPCC reports because of omission of ice sheet melt and an insensitivity of most climate models, likely due to excessive ocean mixing.
Matthew J. Carmichael, Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Malte Heinemann, Jeffrey Kiehl, Allegra LeGrande, Claire A. Loptson, Chris D. Roberts, Navjit Sagoo, Christine Shields, Paul J. Valdes, Arne Winguth, Cornelia Winguth, and Richard D. Pancost
Clim. Past, 12, 455–481, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-455-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-455-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we assess how well model-simulated precipitation rates compare to those indicated by geological data for the early Eocene, a warm interval 56–49 million years ago. Our results show that a number of models struggle to produce sufficient precipitation at high latitudes, which likely relates to cool simulated temperatures in these regions. However, calculating precipitation rates from plant fossils is highly uncertain, and further data are now required.
S. Jasechko, A. Lechler, F. S. R. Pausata, P. J. Fawcett, T. Gleeson, D. I. Cendón, J. Galewsky, A. N. LeGrande, C. Risi, Z. D. Sharp, J. M. Welker, M. Werner, and K. Yoshimura
Clim. Past, 11, 1375–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we compile global isotope proxy records of climate changes from the last ice age to the late-Holocene preserved in cave calcite, glacial ice and groundwater aquifers. We show that global patterns of late-Pleistocene to late-Holocene precipitation isotope shifts are consistent with stronger-than-modern isotopic distillation of air masses during the last ice age, likely impacted by larger global temperature differences between the tropics and the poles.
D. J. Ullman, A. N. LeGrande, A. E. Carlson, F. S. Anslow, and J. M. Licciardi
Clim. Past, 10, 487–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, 2014
E. Gasson, D. J. Lunt, R. DeConto, A. Goldner, M. Heinemann, M. Huber, A. N. LeGrande, D. Pollard, N. Sagoo, M. Siddall, A. Winguth, and P. J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 10, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-451-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-451-2014, 2014
G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 10, 221–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014
C. Morrill, A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 9, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-955-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Holocene
Insights into the Australian mid-Holocene climate using downscaled climate models
Modelling Mediterranean ocean biogeochemistry of the Last Glacial Maximum
Mid-Holocene climate at mid-latitudes: assessing the impact of Saharan greening
Dynamic interaction between lakes, climate, and vegetation across northern Africa during the mid-Holocene
Simulating dust emissions and secondary organic aerosol formation over northern Africa during the mid-Holocene Green Sahara period
Quantifying effects of Earth orbital parameters and greenhouse gases on mid-Holocene climate
Contribution of lakes in sustaining the Sahara greening during the mid-Holocene
Did the Bronze Age deforestation of Europe affect its climate? A regional climate model study using pollen-based land cover reconstructions
Indian Ocean variability changes in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project
CHELSA-TraCE21k – high-resolution (1 km) downscaled transient temperature and precipitation data since the Last Glacial Maximum
Investigating hydroclimatic impacts of the 168–158 BCE volcanic quartet and their relevance to the Nile River basin and Egyptian history
Simulations of the Holocene climate in Europe using an interactive downscaling within the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.1)
Mid-Holocene climate of the Tibetan Plateau and hydroclimate in three major river basins based on high-resolution regional climate simulations
Comparison of the green-to-desert Sahara transitions between the Holocene and the last interglacial
Influence of long-term changes in solar irradiance forcing on the Southern Annular Mode
Simulated range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes from extended lakes and wetlands over North Africa
Calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation based on model-ensemble equilibrium and transient simulations from PMIP4 and PACMEDY
The long-standing dilemma of European summer temperatures at the mid-Holocene and other considerations on learning from the past for the future using a regional climate model
Mid-Holocene monsoons in South and Southeast Asia: dynamically downscaled simulations and the influence of the Green Sahara
The remote response of the South Asian Monsoon to reduced dust emissions and Sahara greening during the middle Holocene
Impact of dust in PMIP-CMIP6 mid-Holocene simulations with the IPSL model
Technical note: Characterising and comparing different palaeoclimates with dynamical systems theory
Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations
CMIP6/PMIP4 simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial using HadGEM3: comparison to the pre-industrial era, previous model versions and proxy data
Water isotopes – climate relationships for the mid-Holocene and preindustrial period simulated with an isotope-enabled version of MPI-ESM
Effects of land use and anthropogenic aerosol emissions in the Roman Empire
Strengths and challenges for transient Mid- to Late Holocene simulations with dynamical vegetation
Physical processes of cooling and mega-drought during the 4.2 ka BP event: results from TraCE-21ka simulations
Comparing the spatial patterns of climate change in the 9th and 5th millennia BP from TRACE-21 model simulations
Abrupt cold events in the North Atlantic Ocean in a transient Holocene simulation
Rapid increase in simulated North Atlantic dust deposition due to fast change of northwest African landscape during the Holocene
Evaluation of PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations of mid-Holocene climate in the Indo-Pacific, Australasian and Southern Ocean regions
Biome changes in Asia since the mid-Holocene – an analysis of different transient Earth system model simulations
Modeling precipitation δ18O variability in East Asia since the Last Glacial Maximum: temperature and amount effects across different timescales
Mid-to-late Holocene temperature evolution and atmospheric dynamics over Europe in regional model simulations
Effects of melting ice sheets and orbital forcing on the early Holocene warming in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere
The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene
The link between marine sediment records and changes in Holocene Saharan landscape: simulating the dust cycle
Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes
The impact of Sahara desertification on Arctic cooling during the Holocene
Global climate simulations at 3000-year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean model
Reexamining the barrier effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the South Asian summer monsoon
Model–data comparison and data assimilation of mid-Holocene Arctic sea ice concentration
Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations
Mid-Holocene ocean and vegetation feedbacks over East Asia
A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 1: Model validation
Influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change and terrestrial carbon storage in the Last Glacial Maximum
Can an Earth System Model simulate better climate change at mid-Holocene than an AOGCM? A comparison study of MIROC-ESM and MIROC3
Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity
The sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes: a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulations
Andrew L. Lowry and Hamish A. McGowan
Clim. Past, 20, 2309–2325, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present simulations of the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial climate of Australia using coarse- (2°) and finer-resolution (0.44°) climate models. These simulations are compared to bioclimatic representations of the palaeoclimate of the mid-Holocene. The finer-resolution simulations reduce the bias between the model and the bioclimatic results and highlight the improved value of using finer-resolution models to simulate the palaeoclimate.
Katharina D. Six, Uwe Mikolajewicz, and Gerhard Schmiedl
Clim. Past, 20, 1785–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1785-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a physical and biogeochemical ocean model of the Mediterranean Sea to obtain a picture of the Last Glacial Maximum. The shallowing of the Strait of Gibraltar leads to a shallower pycnocline and more efficient nutrient export. Consistent with the sediment data, an increase in organic matter deposition is simulated, although this is based on lower biological production. This unexpected but plausible result resolves the apparent contradiction between planktonic and benthic proxy data.
Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shivangi Tiwari, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, and Qiong Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1735–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Palaeoclimate reconstructions suggest that, around 6000 years ago, a greening of the Sahara took place, accompanied by climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere at middle to high latitudes. In this study, a climate model is used to investigate how this drastic environmental change in the Sahara impacted remote regions. Specifically, climate simulations reveal significant modifications in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, affecting North American and European climates.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 20, 1595–1613, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1595-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1595-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We close the terrestrial water cycle across the Sahara and Sahel by integrating a new endorheic-lake model into a climate model. A factor analysis of mid-Holocene simulations shows that both dynamic lakes and dynamic vegetation individually contribute to a precipitation increase over northern Africa that is collectively greater than that caused by the interaction between lake and vegetation dynamics. Thus, the lake–vegetation interaction causes a relative drying response across the entire Sahel.
Putian Zhou, Zhengyao Lu, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Qiong Zhang, Juha Lento, Jianpu Bian, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Markku Kulmala, Michael Boy, and Risto Makkonen
Clim. Past, 19, 2445–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A Green Sahara with enhanced rainfall and larger vegetation cover existed in northern Africa about 6000 years ago. Biosphere–atmosphere interactions are found to be critical to explaining this wet period. Based on modeled vegetation reconstruction data, we simulated dust emissions and aerosol formation, which are key factors in biosphere–atmosphere interactions. Our results also provide a benchmark of aerosol climatology for future paleo-climate simulation experiments.
Yibo Kang and Haijun Yang
Clim. Past, 19, 2013–2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2013-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2013-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated the climate difference between the mid-Holocene (MH) and the preindustrial (PI) periods and quantified the effects of Earth orbital parameters (ORBs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the climate difference. We think the insignificant difference in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation between the MH and PI periods has resulted from the competing effects of the ORBs and the GHGs on the climate.
Yuheng Li, Kanon Kino, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Taikan Oki
Clim. Past, 19, 1891–1904, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our study using the isotope-enabled climate model MIROC5-iso model shows that lakes may have contributed to the Green Sahara during the mid-Holocene period (6000 years ago). The lakes induced cyclonic circulation response, enhancing the near-surface monsoon westerly flow and potentially humidifying the northwestern Sahara with the stronger West African Monsoon moving northward. Our findings provide valuable insights into understanding the presence of the Green Sahara during this period.
Gustav Strandberg, Jie Chen, Ralph Fyfe, Erik Kjellström, Johan Lindström, Anneli Poska, Qiong Zhang, and Marie-José Gaillard
Clim. Past, 19, 1507–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate around 2500 years ago is studied using reconstructions and models. The results suggest that LULCC impacted the climate in parts of Europe. Reconstructed LULCC shows up to 1.5 °C higher temperature in parts of Europe in some seasons. This relatively strong response implies that anthropogenic LULCC that had occurred by the late prehistoric period may have already affected the European climate by 2500 years ago.
Chris Brierley, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Edward Grindrod, and Jonathan Barnsley
Clim. Past, 19, 681–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Year-to-year variations in the weather conditions over the Indian Ocean have important consequences for the substantial fraction of the Earth's population that live near it. This work looks at how these variations respond to climate change – both past and future. The models rarely agree, suggesting a weak, uncertain response to climate change.
Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Michael P. Nobis, Signe Normand, Catherine H. Graham, and Niklaus E. Zimmermann
Clim. Past, 19, 439–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present global monthly climate time series for air temperature and precipitation at 1 km resolution for the last 21 000 years. The topography at all time steps is created by combining high-resolution information on glacial cover from current and Last Glacial Maximum glacier databases with the interpolation of an ice sheet model and a coupling to mean annual temperatures from a global circulation model.
Ram Singh, Kostas Tsigaridis, Allegra N. LeGrande, Francis Ludlow, and Joseph G. Manning
Clim. Past, 19, 249–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work is a modeling effort to investigate the hydroclimatic impacts of a volcanic
quartetduring 168–158 BCE over the Nile River basin in the context of Ancient Egypt's Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE). The model simulated a robust surface cooling (~ 1.0–1.5 °C), suppressing the African monsoon (deficit of > 1 mm d−1 over East Africa) and agriculturally vital Nile summer flooding. Our result supports the hypothesized relation between volcanic eruptions, hydroclimatic shocks, and societal impacts.
Frank Arthur, Didier M. Roche, Ralph Fyfe, Aurélien Quiquet, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past, 19, 87–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper simulates transcient Holocene climate in Europe by applying an interactive downscaling to the standard version of the iLOVECLIM model. The results show that downscaling presents a higher spatial variability in better agreement with proxy-based reconstructions as compared to the standard model, particularly in the Alps, the Scandes, and the Mediterranean. Our downscaling scheme is numerically cheap, which can perform kilometric multi-millennial simulations suitable for future studies.
Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
Clim. Past, 18, 2401–2420, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2401-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the hydrological changes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the mid-Holocene (MH; a period with warmer summers than today) will help us understand expected future changes. This study analyses the hydroclimates over the headwater regions of three major rivers originating on the TP using dynamically downscaled climate simulations. Model–data comparisons show that the dynamic downscaling significantly improves both the present-day and MH regional climate simulations of the TP.
Huan Li, Hans Renssen, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2303–2319, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In past warm periods, the Sahara region was covered by vegetation. In this paper we study transitions from this
greenstate to the desert state we find today. For this purpose, we have used a global climate model coupled to a vegetation model to perform transient simulations. We analyzed the model results to assess the effect of vegetation shifts on the abruptness of the transition. We find that the vegetation feedback was more efficient during the last interglacial than during the Holocene.
Nicky M. Wright, Claire E. Krause, Steven J. Phipps, Ghyslaine Boschat, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 18, 1509–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a major mode of climate variability. Proxy-based SAM reconstructions show changes that last millennium climate simulations do not reproduce. We test the SAM's sensitivity to solar forcing using simulations with a range of solar values and transient last millennium simulations with large-amplitude solar variations. We find that solar forcing can alter the SAM and that strong solar forcing transient simulations better match proxy-based reconstructions.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1035–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Palaeoenvironmental records only provide a fragmentary picture of the lake and wetland extent in North Africa during the mid-Holocene. Therefore, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes caused by an estimated small and maximum lake extent and a maximum wetland extent. Results show a particularly strong monsoon precipitation response to lakes and wetlands over the Western Sahara and an increased monsoon precipitation when replacing lakes with vegetated wetlands.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
Clim. Past, 17, 1645–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional climate simulations were constructed to more accurately capture regional features of the South and Southeast Asian monsoon during the mid-Holocene. Comparison with proxies shows that our high-resolution simulations outperform those with the coarser global model in reproducing the monsoon rainfall anomalies. Incorporating the Green Sahara climate conditions over northern Africa into our simulations further strengthens the monsoon precipitation and leads to better agreement with proxies.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Pascale Braconnot, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Anne Cozic, Masa Kageyama, Adriana Sima, Olivier Marti, and Jean-Yves Peterschmitt
Clim. Past, 17, 1091–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how mid-Holocene dust reduction affects the Earth’s energetics from a suite of climate simulations. Our analyses confirm the peculiar role of the dust radiative effect over bright surfaces such as African deserts. We highlight a strong dependence on the dust pattern. The relative dust forcing between West Africa and the Middle East impacts the relative response of Indian and African monsoons and between the western tropical Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional circulation.
Gabriele Messori and Davide Faranda
Clim. Past, 17, 545–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The palaeoclimate community must both analyse large amounts of model data and compare very different climates. Here, we present a seemingly very abstract analysis approach that may be fruitfully applied to palaeoclimate numerical simulations. This approach characterises the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics and is thus suited to face the above challenges.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Charles J. R. Williams, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Emilie Capron, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Joy S. Singarayer, Louise C. Sime, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 16, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from two simulations using the latest version of the UK's climate model, the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) and Last Interglacial (127 000 years ago). The simulations reproduce temperatures consistent with the pattern of incoming radiation. Model–data comparisons indicate that some regions (and some seasons) produce better matches to the data than others.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Anina Gilgen, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kühn, and Ulrike Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1885–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAM-SALSA, the effect of humans on European climate in the Roman Empire was quantified. Both land use and novel estimates of anthropogenic aerosol emissions were considered. We conducted simulations with fixed sea-surface temperatures to gain a first impression about the anthropogenic impact. While land use effects induced a regional warming for one of the reconstructions, aerosol emissions led to a cooling associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.
Pascale Braconnot, Dan Zhu, Olivier Marti, and Jérôme Servonnat
Clim. Past, 15, 997–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study discusses a simulation of the last 6000 years realized with a climate model in which the vegetation and carbon cycle are fully interactive. The long-term southward shift in Northern Hemisphere tree line and Afro-Asian monsoon rain are reproduced. The results show substantial change in tree composition with time over Eurasia and the role of trace gases in the recent past. They highlight the limitations due to model setup and multiple preindustrial vegetation states.
Mi Yan and Jian Liu
Clim. Past, 15, 265–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, 2019
Liang Ning, Jian Liu, Raymond S. Bradley, and Mi Yan
Clim. Past, 15, 41–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019, 2019
Andrea Klus, Matthias Prange, Vidya Varma, Louis Bruno Tremblay, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 14, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous proxy records from the northern North Atlantic suggest substantial climate variability including the occurrence of multi-decadal-to-centennial cold events during the Holocene. We analyzed two abrupt cold events in a Holocene simulation using a comprehensive climate model. It is shown that the events were ultimately triggered by prolonged phases of positive North Atlantic Oscillation causing changes in ocean circulation followed by severe cooling, freshening, and expansion of sea ice.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, and Christian Reick
Clim. Past, 14, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We find a rapid increase in simulated dust deposition between 6 and
4 ka BP that is fairly consistent with an abrupt change in dust deposition that was observed in marine sediment records at around 5 ka BP. This rapid change is caused by a rapid increase in simulated dust emissions in the western Sahara due to a fast decline in vegetation cover and a locally strong reduction of lake area. Our study identifies spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the transition of the North African landscape.
Duncan Ackerley, Jessica Reeves, Cameron Barr, Helen Bostock, Kathryn Fitzsimmons, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Chris Gouramanis, Helen McGregor, Scott Mooney, Steven J. Phipps, John Tibby, and Jonathan Tyler
Clim. Past, 13, 1661–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A selection of climate models have been used to simulate both pre-industrial (1750 CE) and mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) conditions. This study presents an assessment of the temperature, rainfall and flow over Australasia from those climate models. The model data are compared with available proxy data reconstructions (e.g. tree rings) for 6000 years ago to identify whether the models are reliable. Places where there is both agreement and conflict are highlighted and investigated further.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Jian Ni, Xianyong Cao, Yongbo Wang, Nils Fischer, Madlene Pfeiffer, Liya Jin, Vyacheslav Khon, Sebastian Wagner, Kerstin Haberkorn, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 13, 107–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The vegetation distribution in eastern Asia is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient climate simulations.
Xinyu Wen, Zhengyu Liu, Zhongxiao Chen, Esther Brady, David Noone, Qingzhao Zhu, and Jian Guan
Clim. Past, 12, 2077–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we challenge the usefulness of temperature effect and amount effect, the basic assumptions in past climate reconstruction using a stable water isotope proxy, in East Asia on multiple timescales. By modeling several time slices in the past 22 000 years using an isotope-enabled general circulation model, we suggest great caution when interpreting δ18O records in this area as indicators of surface temperature and/or local monsoonal precipitation, especially on a millennial timescale.
Emmanuele Russo and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 12, 1645–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we use a RCM for three different goals.
Proposing a model configuration suitable for paleoclimate studies; evaluating the added value of a regional climate model for paleoclimate studies; investigating temperature evolution of the European continent during mid-to-late Holocene.
Results suggest that the RCM seems to produce results in better agreement with reconstructions than its driving GCM. Simulated temperature evolution seems to be too sensitive to changes in insolation.
Yurui Zhang, Hans Renssen, and Heikki Seppä
Clim. Past, 12, 1119–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how forcings contributed to climate change during the early Holocene that marked the final transition to the warm and stable stage. Our results indicate that 1) temperature at the Holocene onset was lower than in the preindustrial over the northern extratropics with the exception in Alaska, and the magnitude of this cooling varies regionally as a response to varying climate forcings and diverse mechanisms, and 2) the rate of the early Holocene warming was also spatially heterogeneous.
M. Clare Smith, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, Jed O. Kaplan, and Nicholas P. Branch
Clim. Past, 12, 923–941, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We used climate modelling to estimate the biogeophysical impacts of agriculture on the climate over the last 8000 years of the Holocene. Our results show statistically significant surface temperature changes (mainly cooling) from as early as 7000 BP in the JJA season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3000 BP. The changes were greatest in the areas of land use change but were also seen in other areas. Precipitation was also affected, particularly in Europe, India, and the ITCZ region.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, Christian Reick, and Tanja Stanelle
Clim. Past, 12, 1009–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate for the first time the direct link between dust accumulation in marine sediment cores and Saharan land surface by simulating the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial dust cycle as a function of Saharan land surface cover and atmosphere-ocean conditions using the coupled atmosphere-aerosol model ECHAM6-HAM2.1. Mid-Holocene surface characteristics, including vegetation cover and lake surface area, are derived from proxy data and simulations.
P. J. Bartlein, M. E. Edwards, S. W. Hostetler, S. L. Shafer, P. M. Anderson, L. B. Brubaker, and A. V. Lozhkin
Clim. Past, 11, 1197–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The ongoing warming of the Arctic is producing changes in vegetation and hydrology that, coupled with rising sea level, could mediate global changes. We explored this possibility using regional climate model simulations of a past interval of warming in Beringia and found that the regional-scale changes do strongly mediate the responses to global changes, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in climate change.
F. J. Davies, H. Renssen, M. Blaschek, and F. Muschitiello
Clim. Past, 11, 571–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, 2015
J. R. Alder and S. W. Hostetler
Clim. Past, 11, 449–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, 2015
G.-S. Chen, Z. Liu, and J. E. Kutzbach
Clim. Past, 10, 1269–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
A. Perez-Sanz, G. Li, P. González-Sampériz, and S. P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 10, 551–568, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, 2014
Z. Tian and D. Jiang
Clim. Past, 9, 2153–2171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, 2013
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1667–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, 2013
R. O'ishi and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 9, 1571–1587, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, 2013
R. Ohgaito, T. Sueyoshi, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Hajima, S. Watanabe, H.-J. Kim, A. Yamamoto, and M. Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 9, 1519–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
M. Berger, J. Brandefelt, and J. Nilsson
Clim. Past, 9, 969–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-969-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-969-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Anchukaitis, K. J. and Tierney, J. E.: Identifying coherent spatiotemporal modes in time-uncertain proxy paleoclimate records, Clim. Dynam., 41, 1291–1306, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1483-0, 2012.
Ault, T. R., Deser, C., Newman, M. and Emile-Geay, J.: Characterizing decadal to centennial variability in the equatorial Pacific during the last millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3450–3456, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50647, 2013.
Bellenger, H., Guilyardi, E. , Leloup, J., Lengaigne, M. and Vialard, J.: ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 42, 1999–2018, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1783-z, 2013.
Borlace, S., Cai, W., and Santoso, A.: Multidecadal ENSO Amplitude Variability in a 1000-yr Simulation of a Coupled Global Climate Model: Implications for Observed ENSO Variability, J. Climate, 26, 9399–9407, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00281.1, 2013.
Braganza, K., Gergis, J. L., Power, S. B., Risbey, J. S., and Fowler, A. M.: A multiproxy index of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, A.D. 1525–1982, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D05106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010896, 2009.
Brown, J. N., Sen Gupta, A., Brown, J. R., Muir, L. C., Risbey, J. S., Whetton, P., Zhang, X., Ganachaud, A., Murphy, B., and Wijffels, S. E.: Implications of CMIP3 model biases and uncertainties for climate projections in the western tropical Pacific, Climatic Change, 119, 147–161, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0603-5, 2012.
Brown, J. N., Langlais, C., and Maes, C.: Zonal structure and variability of the Western Pacific dynamic warm pool edge in CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 42, 3061–3076, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1931-5, 2013.
Cai, W., Borlace, S., Lengaigne, M., and Van Rensch, P.: Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming, Nature Climate, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2100, 2014.
Carre, M., Sachs, J. P., Purca, S., Schauer, A. J., Braconnot, P., Falcon, R. A., Julien, M., and Lavallee, D.: Holocene history of ENSO variance and asymmetry in the eastern tropical Pacific, Science, 345, 1045–1048, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1252220, 2014.
Chiang, J. C. H., Fang, Y., and Chang, P.: Pacific Climate Change and ENSO Activity in the Mid-Holocene, J. Climate, 22, 923–939, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2644.1, 2009.
Clement, A. C., Seager, R., and Cane, M. A.: Suppression of El Niño during the Mid-Holocene by changes in the Earth's orbit, Paleoceanography, 15, 731–737, 2000.
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., and Cook, B. I.: Stationarity of the tropical pacific teleconnection to North America in CMIP5/PMIP3 model simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4927–4932, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50938, 2013.
Cobb, K. M., Charles, C. D., Cheng, H., and Edwards, R. L.: El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium, Nature, 424, 271–276, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01779, 2003.
Cobb, K. M., Westphal, N., Sayani, H. R., Watson, J. T., Di Lorenzo, E., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., and Charles, C. D.: Highly Variable El Nino-Southern Oscillation Throughout the Holocene, Science, 339, 67–70, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1228246, 2013.
Collins, M., An, S.-I., Cai, W., Ganachaud, A., Guilyardi, E., Jin, F.-F., Jochum, M., Lengaigne, M., Power, S., Timmermann, A., Vecchi, G., and Wittenberg, A.: The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño, Nat. Geosci., 3, 391–397, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo868, 2010.
Compo, G. P. and Whitaker, J. S.: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.776, 2011.
Conroy, J. L., Overpeck, J. T., Cole, J. E., Shanahan, T. M., and Steinitz-Kannan, M.: Holocene changes in eastern tropical Pacific climate inferred from a Galápagos lake sediment record, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 27, 1166–1180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.02.015, 2008.
DiNezio, P. N., Kirtman, B. P., Clement, A. C., Lee, S.-K., Vecchi, G. A., and Wittenberg, A.: Mean Climate Controls on the Simulated Response of ENSO to Increasing Greenhouse Gases, J. Climate, 25, 7399–7420, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00494.1, 2012.
Emile-Geay, J., Seager, R., Cane, M. A., Cook, E. R., and Haug, G. H.: Volcanoes and ENSO over the Past Millennium, J. Climate, 21, 3134–3148, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1884.1, 2008.
Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K. M., Mann, M. E., and Wittenberg, A. T.: Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST Variability over the Past Millennium, Part I: Methodology and Validation, J. Climate, 26, 2302–2328, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00510.1, 2013a.
Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K. M., Mann, M. E., and Wittenberg, A. T.: Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST Variability over the Past Millennium, Part II: Reconstructions and Implications, J. Climate, 26, 2329–2352, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00511.1, 2013b.
England, M. H., McGregor, S., Spence, P., Meehl, G. A., Timmermann, A., Cai, W., Sen Gupta, A., McPhaden, M. J., Purich, A., and Santoso, A.: Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus, Nature, 4, 222–227, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2106, 2014.
Gallant, A. J. E., Phipps, S. J., Karoly, D. J., Mullan, A. B., and Lorrey, A. M.: Nonstationary Australasian Teleconnections and Implications for Paleoclimate Reconstructions, J. Climate, 26, 8827–8849, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00338.1, 2013.
Guilyardi, E., Bellenger, H., Collins, M., Ferrett, S., Cai, W., and Wittenberg, A.: A first look at ENSO in CMIP5, Clivar Exchanges, 17, 29–32, 2012.
Graf, H.-F. and Zanchettin, D.: Central Pacific El Niño, the "subtropical bridge," and Eurasian climate, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D01102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016493, 2012.
Karamperidou, C. and Di Nezio, P. N.: The response of ENSO flavors to mid-Holocene climate: Implications for proxy interpretation, Paleoceanography, 30, 527–547, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014PA002742, 2015.
Karnauskas, K. B., Smerdon, J. E., Seager, R., and González-Rouco, J. F.: A Pacific Centennial Oscillation Predicted by Coupled GCMs*, J. Climate, 25, 5943–5961, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00421.1, 2012.
Khider, D., Stott, L. D., Emile-Geay, J., Thunell, R., and Hammond, D. E.: Assessing El Niño Southern Oscillation variability during the past millennium, Paleoceanography, 26, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011PA002139, 2011.
King, A. D., Donat, M. G., Alexander, L. V., and Karoly, D. J.: The ENSO-Australian rainfall teleconnection in reanalysis and CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 44, 2623–2635, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2159-8, 2014.
Klingaman, N. P. and Woolnough, S. J.: On the drivers of inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability in Queensland, Australia, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 2413–2430, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3593, 2013.
Lewis, S. C., LeGrande, A. N., Schmidt, G. A., and Kelley, M.: Comparison of forced ENSO-like hydrological expressions in simulations of the pre-industrial and mid-Holocene, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2169-8996, 2014.
Li, J., Xie, S.-P., Cook, E. R., Huang, G., D'Arrigo, R., Liu, F., Ma, J., and Zheng, X.-T.: Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium, Nature Climate Change, 1, 114–118, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1086, 2011.
Li, J., Xie, S.-P., Cook, E. R., Morales, M. S., Christie, D. A., Johnson, N. C., Chen, F., D'Arrigo, R., Fowler, A. M., Gou, X. ,and Fang, K.: El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries, Nature Climate Change, 3, 822–826, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1936, 2013.
Lorenz, R., Davin, E. L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Modeling land-climate coupling in Europe: Impact of land surface representation on climate variability and extremes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, 2012.
McGregor, H. V. and Gagan, M. K.: Western Pacific coral δ18O records of anomalous Holocene variability in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019972, 2004.
McGregor, H. V., Fischer, M. J., Gagan, M. K., Fink, D., Phipps, S. J., Wong, H., and Woodroffe, C. D.: A weak El Niño/Southern Oscillation with delayed seasonal growth around 4,300 years ago, Nat. Geosci., 6, 949–953, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1936, 2013.
McGregor, S. and Timmermann, A.: The Effect of Explosive Tropical Volcanism on ENSO, J. Climate, 24, 2178–2191, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3990.1, 2011.
McPhaden, M. J., Lee, T., and McClurg, D.: El Niño and its relationship to changing background conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048275, 2011.
Moy, C., Seltzer, G., Rodbell, D., and Anderson, D.: Variability of El Nino/Southern Oscillation activity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch, Nature, 420, 162–165, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01194, 2002.
Pascolini-Campbell, M., Zanchettin, D., Bothe, O., Timmreck, C., Matei, D., Jungclaus, J. H., and Graf, H. F.: Toward a record of Central Pacific El Niño events since 1880, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 119, 379–389, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1114-2, 2014.
Power, S., Delage, F., Chung, C., Kociuba, G., and Keay, K.: Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability, Nature, 502, 541–545, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12580, 2013.
San Gupta, A., Jourdain, N. C., Brown, J. N., and Monselesan, D.: Climate Drift in the CMIP5 Models*, J. Climate, 26, 8597–8615, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00521.s1, 2013.
Santoso, A., McGregor, S., Jin, F.-F., Cai, W., England, M. H., An, S.-I., McPhaden, M. J., and Guilyardi, E.: Late-twentieth-century emergence of the El Nino propagation asymmetry and future projections, Nature, 504, 126–130, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12683, 2013.
Schmidt, G. A.: Enhancing the relevance of palaeoclimate model/data comparisons for assessments of future climate change, edited by C. Caseldine, C. Turney, and A. Long, J. Quaternary Sci., 25, 79–87, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.1314, 2010.
Schmidt, G. A., Shindell, D. T., Miller, R. L., Mann, M. E., and Rind, D.: General circulation modelling of Holocene climate variability, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 23, 2167–2181, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.08.005, 2004.
Schmidt, G. A., Kelley, M., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S. E., Bhat, M. K., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Chen, Y.-H., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Del Genio, A., de Fainchtein, R., Faluvegi, G., Hansen, J. E., Healy, R. J., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lacis, A. A., LeGrande, A. N., Lerner, J., Lo, K. K., Matthews, E. E., Menon, S., Miller, R. L., Oinas, V., Oloso, A. O., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Putman, W. M., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Sato, M., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Syed, R. A., Tausnev, N., Tsigaridis, K., Unger, N., Voulgarakis, A., Yao, M.-S., and Zhang, J.: Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 6, 141–184, \https://doi.org/0.1002/2013MS000265, 2014.
Smerdon, J. E.: Climate models as a test bed for climate reconstruction methods: pseudoproxy experiments, WIREs Clim Change, 3, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.149, 2011.
Stevenson, S. L.: Significant changes to ENSO strength and impacts in the twenty-first century: Results from CMIP5, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L17703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052759, 2012.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Timmreck, C.: Modeling the climatic effects of large explosive volcanic eruptions, WIREs Clim Change, 3, 545–564, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.192, 2012.
Trenberth, K. E.: The Definition of El Nino, B. Am. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2771–2777, 1997.
Vecchi, G. A. and Wittenberg, A. T.: El Niño and our future climate: where do we stand?, WIREs Climate Change, 1, 260–270, 2010.
Wahl, E. R., Diaz, H. F., Smerdon, J. E., and Ammann, C. M.: Global and Planetary Change, Global Planet. Change, 122, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.005, 2014.
Wilson, R., Cook, E., D'Arrigo, R., Riedwyl, N., Evans, M. N., Tudhope, A., and Allan, R.: Reconstructing ENSO: the influence of method, proxy data, climate forcing and teleconnections, edited by: Caseldine, C., Turney, C., and Long, A., J. Quaternary Sci., 25, 62–78, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.1297, 2010.
Wittenberg, A. T.: Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, , 2009.
