Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
Research article
22 Mar 2024
Research article |  | 22 Mar 2024

Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions

Takahito Mitsui and Niklas Boers

Related authors

Synchronization phenomena observed in glacial–interglacial cycles simulated in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity
Takahito Mitsui, Matteo Willeit, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1277–1294,,, 2023
Short summary
Insolation evolution and ice volume legacies determine interglacial and glacial intensity
Takahito Mitsui, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 18, 1983–1996,,, 2022
Short summary
Does a difference in ice sheets between Marine Isotope Stages 3 and 5a affect the duration of stadials? Implications from hosing experiments
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Akira Oka, Takahito Mitsui, and Fuyuki Saito
Clim. Past, 17, 1919–1936,,, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Ice Cores | Timescale: Millenial/D-O
Continuous synchronization of the Greenland ice-core and U-Th timescales using probabilistic inversion
Francesco Muschitiello and Marco Antonio Aquino-Lopez
Clim. Past Discuss.,,, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Synchronizing ice-core and U ∕ Th timescales in the Last Glacial Maximum using Hulu Cave 14C and new 10Be measurements from Greenland and Antarctica
Giulia Sinnl, Florian Adolphi, Marcus Christl, Kees C. Welten, Thomas Woodruff, Marc Caffee, Anders Svensson, Raimund Muscheler, and Sune Olander Rasmussen
Clim. Past, 19, 1153–1175,,, 2023
Short summary
Assessing the statistical uniqueness of the Younger Dryas: a robust multivariate analysis
Henry Nye and Alan Condron
Clim. Past, 17, 1409–1421,,, 2021
Short summary
The SP19 chronology for the South Pole Ice Core – Part 2: gas chronology, Δage, and smoothing of atmospheric records
Jenna A. Epifanio, Edward J. Brook, Christo Buizert, Jon S. Edwards, Todd A. Sowers, Emma C. Kahle, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Eric J. Steig, Dominic A. Winski, Erich C. Osterberg, Tyler J. Fudge, Murat Aydin, Ekaterina Hood, Michael Kalk, Karl J. Kreutz, David G. Ferris, and Joshua A. Kennedy
Clim. Past, 16, 2431–2444,,, 2020
Short summary
Decadal-scale progression of the onset of Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events
Tobias Erhardt, Emilie Capron, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Simon Schüpbach, Matthias Bigler, Florian Adolphi, and Hubertus Fischer
Clim. Past, 15, 811–825,,, 2019
Short summary

Cited articles

Abshagen, J. and Timmermann, A.: An organizing center for thermohaline excitability, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 34, 2756–2760, 2004. a
Alkhayuon, H., Ashwin, P., Jackson, L. C., Quinn, C., and Wood, R. A.: Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a global oceanic box model, P. Roy. Soc. A, 475, 20190051,, 2019. a, b
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950,, 2022. a
Ashwin, P., Wieczorek, S., Vitolo, R., and Cox, P.: Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 370, 1166–1184, 2012. a, b, c, d
Ben-Yami, M., Skiba, V., Bathiany, S., and Boers, N.: Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation, Nat. Commun., 14, 8344,, 2023. a, b
Short summary
In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a system approaching a critical transition. Using these indicators, we identify statistical precursor signals for the Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling events recorded in two climatic proxies of three Greenland ice core records. We then provide a dynamical systems theory that bridges the gap between observing statistical precursor signals and the physical precursor signs empirically known in paleoclimate research.