Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Mar 2024
Research article |
| 22 Mar 2024
| 22 Mar 2024
Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions
Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 6012 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Niklas Boers
Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 6012 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Department of Mathematics and Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Related authors
Takahito Mitsui, Matteo Willeit, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1277–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The glacial–interglacial cycles of the Quaternary exhibit 41 kyr periodicity before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) around 1.2–0.8 Myr ago and ~100 kyr periodicity after that. The mechanism generating these periodicities remains elusive. Through an analysis of an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, we show that the dominant periodicities of glacial cycles can be explained from the viewpoint of synchronization theory.
Takahito Mitsui, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 18, 1983–1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1983-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1983-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We provide simple quantitative models for the interglacial and glacial intensities over the last 800 000 years. Our results suggest that the memory of previous climate states and the time course of the insolation in both hemispheres are crucial for understanding interglacial and glacial intensities. In our model, the shift in interglacial intensities at the Mid-Brunhes Event (~430 ka) is ultimately attributed to the amplitude modulation of obliquity.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Akira Oka, Takahito Mitsui, and Fuyuki Saito
Clim. Past, 17, 1919–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial periods underwent climate shifts between warm states and cold states on a millennial timescale. Frequency of these climate shifts varied along time: it was shorter during mid-glacial period compared to early glacial period. Here, from climate simulations of early and mid-glacial periods with a comprehensive climate model, we show that the larger ice sheet in the mid-glacial compared to early glacial periods could contribute to the frequent climate shifts during the mid-glacial period.
Maya Ben-Yami, Lana Blaschke, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1106, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent work has used observations to find statistical signs that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may be approaching a collapse. We find that in complex climate models in which the AMOC does not collapse before 2100, the statistical signs that are present in the observations are not found in the 1850–2014 equivalent model time series. This indicates that the observed statistical signs are not prone to false positives.
Takahito Mitsui, Matteo Willeit, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1277–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The glacial–interglacial cycles of the Quaternary exhibit 41 kyr periodicity before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) around 1.2–0.8 Myr ago and ~100 kyr periodicity after that. The mechanism generating these periodicities remains elusive. Through an analysis of an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, we show that the dominant periodicities of glacial cycles can be explained from the viewpoint of synchronization theory.
Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Josh E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1773, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1773, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tipping points are abrupt, rapid and sometimes irreversible changes and numerous approaches have been proposed to detect them in advance. Such approaches have been termed early-warning signals and represent a set of methods for identifying changes in the underlying behavior of a system across time or space that would be indicative of an approaching tipping point. Here we review the literature to find where, how, and which early-warnings have been used so far in real-world case studies.
Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Frederik Wolf, Niklas Boers, Dominik Traxl, Norbert Marwan, and Jürgen Kurths
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2645–2660, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Employing event synchronization and complex networks analysis, we reveal a cascade of heavy rainfall events, related to intense atmospheric rivers (ARs): heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in western North America (NA) that occur in the aftermath of land-falling ARs are synchronized with HPEs in central and eastern Canada with a delay of up to 12 d. Understanding the effects of ARs in the rainfall over NA will lead to better anticipating the evolution of the climate dynamics in the region.
Maximilian Gelbrecht, Alistair White, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3123–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Differential programming is a technique that enables the automatic computation of derivatives of the output of models with respect to model parameters. Applying these techniques to Earth system modeling leverages the increasing availability of high-quality data to improve the models themselves. This can be done by either using calibration techniques that use gradient-based optimization or incorporating machine learning methods that can learn previously unresolved influences directly from data.
Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Forough Hassanibesheli, Pedro G. Lind, Dirk Witthaut, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 593–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate proxy records show that the North Atlantic climate repeatedly transitioned between two regimes during the last glacial interval. This study investigates a bivariate proxy record from a Greenland ice core which reflects past Greenland temperatures and large-scale atmospheric conditions. We reconstruct the underlying deterministic drift by estimating first-order Kramers–Moyal coefficients and identify two separate stable states in agreement with the aforementioned climatic regimes.
Taylor Smith, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Chris A. Boulton, Timothy M. Lenton, Wouter Dorigo, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 173–183, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-instrument records with varying signal-to-noise ratios are becoming increasingly common as legacy sensors are upgraded, and data sets are modernized. Induced changes in higher-order statistics such as the autocorrelation and variance are not always well captured by cross-calibration schemes. Here we investigate using synthetic examples how strong resulting biases can be and how they can be avoided in order to make reliable statements about changes in the resilience of a system.
Takahito Mitsui, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 18, 1983–1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1983-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1983-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We provide simple quantitative models for the interglacial and glacial intensities over the last 800 000 years. Our results suggest that the memory of previous climate states and the time course of the insolation in both hemispheres are crucial for understanding interglacial and glacial intensities. In our model, the shift in interglacial intensities at the Mid-Brunhes Event (~430 ka) is ultimately attributed to the amplitude modulation of obliquity.
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers, Martin Wibe Rypdal, and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 18, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In layer counted proxy records each measurement is accompanied by a timestamp typically measured by counting periodic layers. Knowledge of the uncertainty of this timestamp is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses. By assuming a Bayesian regression model to the layer increments we express the dating uncertainty by the posterior distribution, from which chronologies can be sampled efficiently. We apply our framework to dating abrupt warming transitions during the last glacial.
Keno Riechers, Takahito Mitsui, Niklas Boers, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 18, 863–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Building upon Milancovic's theory of orbital forcing, this paper reviews the interplay between intrinsic variability and external forcing in the emergence of glacial interglacial cycles. It provides the reader with historical background information and with basic theoretical concepts used in recent paleoclimate research. Moreover, it presents new results which confirm the reduced stability of glacial-cycle dynamics after the mid-Pleistocene transition.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Akira Oka, Takahito Mitsui, and Fuyuki Saito
Clim. Past, 17, 1919–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial periods underwent climate shifts between warm states and cold states on a millennial timescale. Frequency of these climate shifts varied along time: it was shorter during mid-glacial period compared to early glacial period. Here, from climate simulations of early and mid-glacial periods with a comprehensive climate model, we show that the larger ice sheet in the mid-glacial compared to early glacial periods could contribute to the frequent climate shifts during the mid-glacial period.
Keno Riechers and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 17, 1751–1775, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland ice core data show that the last glacial cycle was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts comprising significant warming over Greenland, retreat of North Atlantic sea ice, and atmospheric reorganization. Statistical analysis of multi-proxy records reveals no systematic lead or lag between the transitions of proxies that represent different climatic subsystems, and hence no evidence for a potential trigger of these so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger events can be found.
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Pierre Antoine, Niklas Boers, France Lagroix, Michael Ghil, Johanna Lomax, Markus Fuchs, Maxime Debret, Christine Hatté, Olivier Moine, Caroline Gauthier, Diana Jordanova, and Neli Jordanova
Clim. Past, 16, 713–727, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-713-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-713-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
New investigations of European loess records from MIS 6 reveal the occurrence of paleosols and horizon showing slight pedogenesis similar to those from the last climatic cycle. These units are correlated with interstadials described in various marine, continental, and ice Northern Hemisphere records. Therefore, these MIS 6 interstadials can confidently be interpreted as DO-like events of the penultimate climate cycle.
Niklas Boers, Mickael D. Chekroun, Honghu Liu, Dmitri Kondrashov, Denis-Didier Rousseau, Anders Svensson, Matthias Bigler, and Michael Ghil
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1171–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1171-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1171-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We use a Bayesian approach for inferring inverse, stochastic–dynamic models from northern Greenland (NGRIP) oxygen and dust records of subdecadal resolution for the interval 59 to 22 ka b2k. Our model reproduces the statistical and dynamical characteristics of the records, including the Dansgaard–Oeschger variability, with no need for external forcing. The crucial ingredients are cubic drift terms, nonlinear coupling terms between the oxygen and dust time series, and non-Markovian contributions.
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Anders Svensson, Matthias Bigler, Adriana Sima, Jorgen Peder Steffensen, and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 13, 1181–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1181-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1181-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the analysis of δ18O and dust in the Greenland ice cores, and a critical study of their source variations, reconciles these records with those observed on the Eurasian continent. We demonstrate the link between European and Chinese loess sequences, dust records in Greenland, and variations in the North Atlantic sea ice extent. The sources of the emitted and transported dust material are variable and relate to different environments.
Niklas Boers, Bedartha Goswami, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 13, 1169–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a Bayesian framework to represent layer-counted proxy records as probability distributions on error-free time axes, accounting for both proxy and dating errors. Our method is applied to NGRIP δ18O data, revealing that the cumulative dating errors lead to substantial uncertainties for the older parts of the record. Applying our method to the widely used radiocarbon comparison curve derived from varved sediments of Lake Suigetsu provides the complete uncertainties of this curve.
Related subject area
Subject: Proxy Use-Development-Validation | Archive: Ice Cores | Timescale: Millenial/D-O
Synchronizing ice-core and U ∕ Th timescales in the Last Glacial Maximum using Hulu Cave 14C and new 10Be measurements from Greenland and Antarctica
Assessing the statistical uniqueness of the Younger Dryas: a robust multivariate analysis
The SP19 chronology for the South Pole Ice Core – Part 2: gas chronology, Δage, and smoothing of atmospheric records
Decadal-scale progression of the onset of Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives
Climatic and insolation control on the high-resolution total air content in the NGRIP ice core
Variability of sulfate signal in ice core records based on five replicate cores
Simulating ice core 10Be on the glacial–interglacial timescale
Evidence for a three-phase sequence during Heinrich Stadial 4 using a multiproxy approach based on Greenland ice core records
Dansgaard–Oeschger events: bifurcation points in the climate system
An automated approach for annual layer counting in ice cores
Duration of Greenland Stadial 22 and ice-gas Δage from counting of annual layers in Greenland NGRIP ice core
Past surface temperatures at the NorthGRIP drill site from the difference in firn diffusion of water isotopes
Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ18O data
Giulia Sinnl, Florian Adolphi, Marcus Christl, Kees C. Welten, Thomas Woodruff, Marc Caffee, Anders Svensson, Raimund Muscheler, and Sune Olander Rasmussen
Clim. Past, 19, 1153–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1153-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1153-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The record of past climate is preserved by several archives from different regions, such as ice cores from Greenland or Antarctica or speleothems from caves such as the Hulu Cave in China. In this study, these archives are aligned by taking advantage of the globally synchronous production of cosmogenic radionuclides. This produces a new perspective on the global climate in the period between 20 000 and 25 000 years ago.
Henry Nye and Alan Condron
Clim. Past, 17, 1409–1421, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1409-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1409-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyzes the uniqueness of a paleoclimate event entitled the Bølling–Allerød Younger Dryas (BA/YD) through a statistical lens in order to better understand its relation to other events similar to it. Furthermore, we implement a novel statistical method entitled PCOut in order to measure the BA/YD's various elements of uniqueness in existing paleoclimate records. We suggest future use of this method for paleoclimate research that aims to assess uniqueness across multiple criteria.
Jenna A. Epifanio, Edward J. Brook, Christo Buizert, Jon S. Edwards, Todd A. Sowers, Emma C. Kahle, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Eric J. Steig, Dominic A. Winski, Erich C. Osterberg, Tyler J. Fudge, Murat Aydin, Ekaterina Hood, Michael Kalk, Karl J. Kreutz, David G. Ferris, and Joshua A. Kennedy
Clim. Past, 16, 2431–2444, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2431-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2431-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new ice core drilled at the South Pole provides a 54 000-year paleo-environmental record including the composition of the past atmosphere. This paper describes the gas chronology for the South Pole ice core, based on a high-resolution methane record. The new gas chronology, in combination with the existing ice age scale from Winski et al. (2019), allows a model-independent reconstruction of the delta age record.
Tobias Erhardt, Emilie Capron, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Simon Schüpbach, Matthias Bigler, Florian Adolphi, and Hubertus Fischer
Clim. Past, 15, 811–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-811-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-811-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The cause of the rapid warming events documented in proxy records across the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial has been a long-standing puzzle in paleo-climate research. Here, we use high-resolution ice-core data from to cores in Greenland to investigate the progression during the onset of these events on multi-annual timescales to test their plausible triggers. We show that atmospheric circulation changes preceded the warming in Greenland and the collapse of the sea ice by a decade.
Niklas Boers, Bedartha Goswami, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 13, 1169–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a Bayesian framework to represent layer-counted proxy records as probability distributions on error-free time axes, accounting for both proxy and dating errors. Our method is applied to NGRIP δ18O data, revealing that the cumulative dating errors lead to substantial uncertainties for the older parts of the record. Applying our method to the widely used radiocarbon comparison curve derived from varved sediments of Lake Suigetsu provides the complete uncertainties of this curve.
Olivier Eicher, Matthias Baumgartner, Adrian Schilt, Jochen Schmitt, Jakob Schwander, Thomas F. Stocker, and Hubertus Fischer
Clim. Past, 12, 1979–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1979-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1979-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A new high-resolution total air content record over the NGRIP ice core, spanning 0.3–120 kyr is presented. In agreement with Antarctic ice cores, we find a strong local insolation signature but also 3–5 % decreases in total air content as a local response to Dansgaard–Oeschger events, which can only partly be explained by changes in surface pressure and temperature. Accordingly, a dynamic response of firnification to rapid climate changes on the Greenland ice sheet must have occurred.
E. Gautier, J. Savarino, J. Erbland, A. Lanciki, and P. Possenti
Clim. Past, 12, 103–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-103-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-103-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the local-scale variability of a sulfate profile at a low-accumulation site (Dome C, Antarctica) to assess the representativeness of one ice core for volcanic reconstructions. Peak statistical occurrence, depth and flux variability are evaluated from five cores. Due to local-scale variability, 64 volcanic peaks can be identified by a five-cores analysis, while only half of them can be assessed from two cores. Using five cores, the uncertainty of the mean flux is reduced to 29 %.
C. Elsässer, D. Wagenbach, I. Levin, A. Stanzick, M. Christl, A. Wallner, S. Kipfstuhl, I. K. Seierstad, H. Wershofen, and J. Dibb
Clim. Past, 11, 115–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-115-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-115-2015, 2015
M. Guillevic, L. Bazin, A. Landais, C. Stowasser, V. Masson-Delmotte, T. Blunier, F. Eynaud, S. Falourd, E. Michel, B. Minster, T. Popp, F. Prié, and B. M. Vinther
Clim. Past, 10, 2115–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2115-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2115-2014, 2014
A. A. Cimatoribus, S. S. Drijfhout, V. Livina, and G. van der Schrier
Clim. Past, 9, 323–333, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-323-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-323-2013, 2013
M. Winstrup, A. M. Svensson, S. O. Rasmussen, O. Winther, E. J. Steig, and A. E. Axelrod
Clim. Past, 8, 1881–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1881-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1881-2012, 2012
P. Vallelonga, G. Bertagna, T. Blunier, H. A. Kjær, T. J. Popp, S. O. Rasmussen, J. P. Steffensen, C. Stowasser, A. S. Svensson, E. Warming, M. Winstrup, M. Bigler, and S. Kipfstuhl
Clim. Past, 8, 1839–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1839-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1839-2012, 2012
S. B. Simonsen, S. J. Johnsen, T. J. Popp, B. M. Vinther, V. Gkinis, and H. C. Steen-Larsen
Clim. Past, 7, 1327–1335, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1327-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1327-2011, 2011
D. Peavoy and C. Franzke
Clim. Past, 6, 787–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010, 2010
Cited articles
Abshagen, J. and Timmermann, A.: An organizing center for thermohaline excitability, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 34, 2756–2760, 2004. a
Alkhayuon, H., Ashwin, P., Jackson, L. C., Quinn, C., and Wood, R. A.: Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a global oceanic box model, P. Roy. Soc. A, 475, 20190051, https://doi.org/0.1098/rspa.2019.0051, 2019. a, b
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022. a
Ben-Yami, M., Skiba, V., Bathiany, S., and Boers, N.: Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation, Nat. Commun., 14, 8344, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44046-9, 2023. a, b
Berglund, N. and Landon, D.: Mixed-mode oscillations and interspike interval statistics in the stochastic FitzHugh–Nagumo model, Nonlinearity, 25, 2303, https://doi.org/10.1088/0951-7715/25/8/2303, 2012. a
Boers, N.: Early-warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events in a high-resolution ice core record, Nat. Commun., 9, 2556, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04881-7, 2018. a, b, c, d
Boers, N. and Rypdal, M.: Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2024192118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024192118, 2021. a
Boers, N., Ghil, M., and Rousseau, D.-D.: Ocean circulation, ice shelf, and sea ice interactions explain Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, E11005–E11014, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.180257311, 2018. a
Bond, G., Broecker, W., Johnsen, S., McManus, J., Labeyrie, L., Jouzel, J., and Bonani, G.: Correlations between climate records from North Atlantic sediments and Greenland ice, Nature, 365, 143–147, 1993. a
Boulton, C. A., Allison, L. C., and Lenton, T. M.: Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model, Nat. Commun., 5, 1–9, 2014. a
Broecker, W. S., Peteet, D. M., and Rind, D.: Does the ocean-atmosphere system have more than one stable mode of operation?, Nature, 315, 21–26, 1985. a
Brovkin, V., Brook, E., Williams, J. W., Bathiany, S., Lenton, T. M., Barton, M., DeConto, R. M., Donges, J. F., Ganopolski, A., McManus, J., Praetorius, S., de Vernal, A., Abe-Ouchi, A., Cheng, H., Claussen, M., Crucifix, M., Gallopín, G., Iglesias, V., Kaufman, D. S., Kleinen, T., Lambert, F., van der Leeuw, S., Liddy, H., Loutre, M.-F., McGee, D., Rehfeld, K., Rhodes, R., Seddon, A. W. R., Trauth, M. H., Vanderveken, L., and Yu, Z.: Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system, Nat. Geosci., 14, 550–558, 2021. a, b
Brown, N. and Galbraith, E. D.: Hosed vs. unhosed: interruptions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a global coupled model, with and without freshwater forcing, Clim. Past, 12, 1663–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1663-2016, 2016. a
Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A., Feulner, G., and Saba, V.: Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation, Nature, 556, 191–196, 2018. a
Capron, E., Landais, A., Chappellaz, J., Schilt, A., Buiron, D., Dahl-Jensen, D., Johnsen, S. J., Jouzel, J., Lemieux-Dudon, B., Loulergue, L., Leuenberger, M., Masson-Delmotte, V., Meyer, H., Oerter, H., and Stenni, B.: Millennial and sub-millennial scale climatic variations recorded in polar ice cores over the last glacial period, Clim. Past, 6, 345–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-345-2010, 2010. a, b, c, d, e, f
Carpenter, S. R. and Brock, W. A.: Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition, Ecol. Lett., 9, 311–318, 2006. a
Centre for Ice and Climate: Data, icesamples and software, Københavns Universitet, Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute [data set], https://www.iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk/data/ (last access: 20 March 2024), 2024. a
Cimatoribus, A. A., Drijfhout, S. S., Livina, V., and van der Schrier, G.: Dansgaard–Oeschger events: bifurcation points in the climate system, Clim. Past, 9, 323–333, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-323-2013, 2013. a
Clements, C. F. and Ozgul, A.: Rate of forcing and the forecastability of critical transitions, Ecol. Evol., 6, 7787–7793, 2016. a
Cleveland, W., Grosse, E., and Shyu, W.: Local regression models. Chapter 8 in Statistical models in S (JM Chambers and TJ Hastie eds.), 608 p., Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole, Pacific Grove, CA, 1992. a
Dakos, V., Carpenter, S. R., Brock, W. A., Ellison, A. M., Guttal, V., Ives, A. R., Kéfi, S., Livina, V., Seekell, D. A., van Nes, E. H., and Scheffer, M.: Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions in time series illustrated using simulated ecological data, PloS one, 7, e41010, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0041010, 2012. a, b, c, d, e, f
Ditlevsen, P. D. and Johnsen, S. J.: Tipping points: early warning and wishful thinking, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L19703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044486, 2010. a, b
Ditlevsen, P. D., Svensmark, H., and Johnsen, S.: Contrasting atmospheric and climate dynamics of the last-glacial and Holocene periods, Nature, 379, 810, https://doi.org/10.1038/379810a0, 1996. a
FitzHugh, R.: Impulses and physiological states in theoretical models of nerve membrane, Biophys. J., 1, 445, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0006-3495(61)86902-6, 1961. a, b
Held, H. and Kleinen, T.: Detection of climate system bifurcations by degenerate fingerprinting, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L23207, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020972, 2004. a
Henry, L., McManus, J. F., Curry, W. B., Roberts, N. L., Piotrowski, A. M., and Keigwin, L. D.: North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation, Science, 353, 470–474, 2016. a
IPCC: Framing, Context, and Methods. In Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, chap. 1, 147–286, Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.003, 2023. a
Kilbourne, K. H., Wanamaker, A. D., Moffa-Sanchez, P., Reynolds, D. J., Amrhein, D. E., Butler, P. G., Gebbie, G., Goes, M., Jansen, M. F., Little, C. M., Mette, M., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Ortega, P., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Rossby, T., Scourse, J., and Whitney, N. M.: Atlantic circulation change still uncertain, Nat. Geosci., 15, 165–167, 2022. a
Kindler, P., Guillevic, M., Baumgartner, M., Schwander, J., Landais, A., and Leuenberger, M.: Temperature reconstruction from 10 to 120 kyr b2k from the NGRIP ice core, Clim. Past, 10, 887–902, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-887-2014, 2014. a
Klockmann, M., Mikolajewicz, U., Kleppin, H., and Marotzke, J.: Coupling of the subpolar gyre and the overturning circulation during abrupt glacial climate transitions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL090361, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090361, 2020. a
Klus, A., Prange, M., Varma, V., Tremblay, L. B., and Schulz, M.: Abrupt cold events in the North Atlantic Ocean in a transient Holocene simulation, Clim. Past, 14, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, 2018. a
Koper, M. T.: Bifurcations of mixed-mode oscillations in a three-variable autonomous Van der Pol-Duffing model with a cross-shaped phase diagram, Physica D, 80, 72–94, 1995. a
Kuehn, C.: A mathematical framework for critical transitions: normal forms, variance and applications, J. Nonlin. Sci., 23, 457–510, 2013. a
Kuniyoshi, Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Sherriff-Tadano, S., Chan, W.-L., and Saito, F.: Effect of Climatic Precession on Dansgaard-Oeschger-Like Oscillations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL095695, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095695, 2022. a
Kwasniok, F.: Analysis and modelling of glacial climate transitions using simple dynamical systems, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. Lond. A, 371, 20110472, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0374, 2013. a, b
Lenton, T. M., Livina, V. N., Dakos, V., and Scheffer, M.: Climate bifurcation during the last deglaciation?, Clim. Past, 8, 1127–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1127-2012, 2012. a
Li, C. and Born, A.: Coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean dynamics in Dansgaard-Oeschger events, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 203, 1–20, 2019. a
Livina, V. N. and Lenton, T. M.: A modified method for detecting incipient bifurcations in a dynamical system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L03712, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028672, 2007. a
Lohmann, J. and Ditlevsen, P. D.: Risk of tipping the overturning circulation due to increasing rates of ice melt, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2017989118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2017989118, 2021. a
Lohmann, J., Dijkstra, H. A., Jochum, M., Lucarini, V., and Ditlevsen, P. D.: Multistability and Intermediate Tipping of the Atlantic Ocean Circulation, arXiv preprint arXiv:2304.05664, 2023. a
Lucarini, V. and Stone, P. H.: Thermohaline circulation stability: A box model study. Part I: Uncoupled model, J. Climate, 18, 501–513, 2005. a
Malmierca-Vallet, I., Sime, L. C., and the D–O community members: Dansgaard–Oeschger events in climate models: review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol, Clim. Past, 19, 915–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, 2023. a
Martrat, B., Grimalt, J. O., Lopez-Martinez, C., Cacho, I., Sierro, F. J., Flores, J. A., Zahn, R., Canals, M., Curtis, J. H., and Hodell, D. A.: Abrupt temperature changes in the Western Mediterranean over the past 250,000 years, Science, 306, 1762–1765, 2004. a
Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekci, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B.: Climate change 2021: the physical science basis, Contribution of working group I to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, in press, 2021. a
Meisel, C. and Kuehn, C.: Scaling effects and spatio-temporal multilevel dynamics in epileptic seizures, PLoS One, 7, e30371, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0030371, 2012. a, b
Menviel, L. C., Skinner, L. C., Tarasov, L., and Tzedakis, P. C.: An ice–climate oscillatory framework for Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 1, 677–693, 2020. a
Michel, S. L., Swingedouw, D., Ortega, P., Gastineau, G., Mignot, J., McCarthy, G., and Khodri, M.: Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction, Nat. Commun., 13, 5176, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3, 2022. a, b
Mitsui, T.: takahito321/Predictability-of-DO-cooling: Release, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10841655, 2024. a
O'Sullivan, E., Mulchrone, K., and Wieczorek, S.: Rate-induced tipping to metastable zombie fires, P. Roy. Soc. A, 479, 20220647, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2022.0647, 2023. a
Rahmstorf, S., Box, J. E., Feulner, G., Mann, M. E., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., and Schaffernicht, E. J.: Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 475–480, 2015. a
Rasmussen, S. O., Abbott, P. M., Blunier, T., Bourne, A. J., Brook, E., Buchardt, S. L., Buizert, C., Chappellaz, J., Clausen, H. B., Cook, E., Dahl-Jensen, D., Davies, S. M., Guillevic, M., Kipfstuhl, S., Laepple, T., Seierstad, I. K., Severinghaus, J. P., Steffensen, J. P., Stowasser, C., Svensson, A., Vallelonga, P., Vinther, B. M., Wilhelms, F., and Winstrup, M.: A stratigraphic framework for abrupt climatic changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice-core records: refining and extending the INTIMATE event stratigraphy, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 106, 14–28, 2014. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o
Riechers, K., Mitsui, T., Boers, N., and Ghil, M.: Orbital insolation variations, intrinsic climate variability, and Quaternary glaciations, Clim. Past, 18, 863–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, 2022. a, b
Ritchie, P. D. L., Alkhayuon, H., Cox, P. M., and Wieczorek, S.: Rate-induced tipping in natural and human systems, Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 669–683, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023, 2023. a
Ruth, U., Wagenbach, D., Steffensen, J. P., and Bigler, M.: Continuous record of microparticle concentration and size distribution in the central Greenland NGRIP ice core during the last glacial period, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4091, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002376, 2003. a, b
Sadatzki, H., Dokken, T. M., Berben, S. M., Muschitiello, F., Stein, R., Fahl, K., Menviel, L., Timmermann, A., and Jansen, E.: Sea ice variability in the southern Norwegian Sea during glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger climate cycles, Science Adv., 5, eaau6174, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau6174, 2019. a
Sakai, K. and Peltier, W. R.: A dynamical systems model of the Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillation and the origin of the Bond cycle, J. Climate, 12, 2238–2255, 1999. a
Seierstad, I. K., Abbott, P. M., Bigler, M., Blunier, T., Bourne, A. J., Brook, E., Buchardt, S. L., Buizert, C., Clausen, H. B., Cook, E., Dahl-Jensen, D., Davies, S., Guillevic, M., Johnsen, S. J., Pedersen, D. S., Popp, T. J., Rasmussen, S. O., Severinghaus, J., Svensson, A., and Vinther, B. M.: Consistently dated records from the Greenland GRIP, GISP2 and NGRIP ice cores for the past 104 ka reveal regional millennial-scale δ18O gradients with possible Heinrich event imprint, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 106, 29–46, 2014. a, b, c, d, e
Strogatz, S. H. (Ed.): Nonlinear dynamics and chaos: with applications to physics, biology, chemistry, and engineering, CRC Press, https://doi.org/10.1201/9780429399640, 2018. a, b
Thomas, Z. A., Kwasniok, F., Boulton, C. A., Cox, P. M., Jones, R. T., Lenton, T. M., and Turney, C. S. M.: Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions, Clim. Past, 11, 1621–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015, 2015. a
Timmermann, A., Gildor, H., Schulz, M., and Tziperman, E.: Coherent resonant millennial-scale climate oscillations triggered by massive meltwater pulses, J. Climate, 16, 2569–2585, 2003. a
van der Bolt, B., van Nes, E. H., and Scheffer, M.: No warning for slow transitions, J. Roy. Soc. Interface, 18, 20200935, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2020.0935, 2021. a
Wieczorek, S., Xie, C., and Ashwin, P.: Rate-induced tipping: Thresholds, edge states and connecting orbits, Nonlinearity, 36, 3238, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6544/accb37, 2023. a
Yiou, R., Fuher, K., Meeker, L., Jouzel, J., Johnsen, S., and Mayewski, P. A.: Paleoclimatic variability inferred from the spectral analysis of Greenland and Antarctic ice-core data, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 102, 26–441, 1997. a
Zhang, X., Barker, S., Knorr, G., Lohmann, G., Drysdale, R., Sun, Y., Hodell, D., and Chen, F.: Direct astronomical influence on abrupt climate variability, Nat. Geosci., 14, 819–826, 2021. a
Short summary
In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a system approaching a critical transition. Using these indicators, we identify statistical precursor signals for the Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling events recorded in two climatic proxies of three Greenland ice core records. We then provide a dynamical systems theory that bridges the gap between observing statistical precursor signals and the physical precursor signs empirically known in paleoclimate research.
In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a system...
