Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
Research article
15 May 2023
Research article |  | 15 May 2023

The effect of uncertainties in natural forcing records on simulated temperature during the last millennium

Lucie J. Lücke, Andrew P. Schurer, Matthew Toohey, Lauren R. Marshall, and Gabriele C. Hegerl

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
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Cited articles

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Anchukaitis, K. J., Breitenmoser, P., Briffa, K. R., Buchwal, A., Büntgen, U., Cook, E. R., D'Arrigo, R. D., Esper, J., Evans, M. N., Frank, D., Grudd, H., Gunnarson, B. E., Hughes, M. K., Kirdyanov, A. V., Krner, C., Krusic, P. J., Luckman, B., Melvin, T. M., Salzer, M. W., Shashkin, A. V., Timmreck, C., Vaganov, E. A., and Wilson, R. J. S.: Tree rings and volcanic cooling, Nat. Geosci., 5, 836–837,, 2012. a
Anchukaitis, K. J., Wilson, R., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Cook, E. R., D'Arrigo, R., Davi, N., Esper, J., Frank, D., Gunnarson, B. E., Hegerl, G., Helama, S., Klesse, S., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Myglan, V., Osborn, T. J., Zhang, P., Rydval, M., Schneider, L., Schurer, A., Wiles, G., and Zorita, E.: Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 163, 1–22,, 2017. a, b, c
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Short summary
Evidence from tree rings and ice cores provides incomplete information about past volcanic eruptions and the Sun's activity. We model past climate with varying solar and volcanic scenarios and compare it to reconstructed temperature. We confirm that the Sun's influence was small and that uncertain volcanic activity can strongly influence temperature shortly after the eruption. On long timescales, independent data sources closely agree, increasing our confidence in understanding of past climate.