Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-959-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-959-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 May 2023
Research article |
| 15 May 2023
| 15 May 2023
The effect of uncertainties in natural forcing records on simulated temperature during the last millennium
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Andrew P. Schurer
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Matthew Toohey
Institute of Space and Atmospheric Studies, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
Lauren R. Marshall
Yusuf Hamied Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Department of Earth Sciences, Durham University, Durham, UK
Gabriele C. Hegerl
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Related authors
No articles found.
Laura Wainman, Lauren R. Marshall, and Anja Schmidt
Clim. Past, 20, 951–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Mt Samalas eruption had global-scale impacts on climate and has been linked to historical events throughout latter half of the 13th century. Using model simulations and multi-proxy data, we constrain the year and season of the eruption to summer 1257 and investigate the regional-scale variability in surface cooling following the eruption. We also evaluate our model-to-proxy comparison framework and discuss current limitations of the approach.
Julie Christin Schindlbeck-Belo, Matthew Toohey, Marion Jegen, Steffen Kutterolf, and Kira Rehfeld
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1063–1081, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1063-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1063-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic forcing of climate resulting from major explosive eruptions is a dominant natural driver of past climate variability. To support model studies of the potential impacts of explosive volcanism on climate variability across timescales, we present an ensemble reconstruction of volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection over the last 140 000 years that is based primarily on tephra records.
Moritz Günther, Hauke Schmidt, Claudia Timmreck, and Matthew Toohey
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-429, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-429, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol affects temperatures differently across the globe, with pronounced cooling in the tropical Indian and Western Pacific ocean. The aerosol also heats the stratosphere. Using a climate model, we show that the resulting circulation changes cause enhanced heat fluxes out of the tropical oceans, resulting in the pronounced local surface cooling. This highlights the importance of circulation adjustments and surface perspectives on forcing for understanding temperature responses.
Zhihong Zhuo, Herman F. Fuglestvedt, Matthew Toohey, and Kirstin Krüger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2374, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study simulated volcanic eruptions with varied eruption source parameters under different initial conditions with a fully coupled Earth system model. The results suggest that initial conditions control the meridional distribution of volcanic volatiles, modulates volcanic forcing and subsequent climate and environmental impacts of tropical and North Hemisphere extratropical eruptions. This highlights the potential for predicting these impacts as early as the first post-eruption month.
Graeme Auld, Gabriele C. Hegerl, and Ioannis Papastathopoulos
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 9, 45–66, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-45-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-45-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we consider the problem of detecting changes in the distribution of the annual maximum temperature, during the years 1950–2018, across Europe.
We find that, on average, the temperature that would be expected to be exceeded
approximately once every 100 years in the 1950 climate is expected to be exceeded once every 6 years in the 2018 climate. This is of concern due to the devastating effects on humans and natural systems that are caused by extreme temperatures.
Flossie Brown, Lauren Marshall, Peter H. Haynes, Rolando R. Garcia, Thomas Birner, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5335–5353, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Large-magnitude volcanic eruptions have the potential to alter large-scale circulation patterns, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO is an oscillation of the tropical stratospheric zonal winds between easterly and westerly directions. Using a climate model, we show that large-magnitude eruptions can delay the progression of the QBO, with a much longer delay when the shear is easterly than when it is westerly. Such delays may affect weather and transport of atmospheric gases.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Jörg Franke, Michael N. Evans, Andrew Schurer, and Gabriele C. Hegerl
Clim. Past, 18, 2583–2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2583-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2583-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Detection and attribution is a statistical method to evaluate if external factors or random variability have caused climatic changes. We use for the first time a comparison of simulated and observed tree-ring width that circumvents many limitations of previous studies relying on climate reconstructions. We attribute variability in temperature-limited trees to strong volcanic eruptions and for the first time detect a spatial pattern in the growth of moisture-sensitive trees after eruptions.
Michael Sigl, Matthew Toohey, Joseph R. McConnell, Jihong Cole-Dai, and Mirko Severi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3167–3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3167-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanism is a key driver of climate. Based on ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, we reconstruct its climate impact potential over the Holocene. By aligning records on a well-dated chronology from Antarctica, we resolve long-standing inconsistencies in the dating of past volcanic eruptions. We reconstruct 850 eruptions (which, in total, injected 7410 Tg of sulfur in the stratosphere) and estimate how they changed the opacity of the atmosphere, a prerequisite for climate model simulations.
Helen Mackay, Gill Plunkett, Britta J. L. Jensen, Thomas J. Aubry, Christophe Corona, Woon Mi Kim, Matthew Toohey, Michael Sigl, Markus Stoffel, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Christoph Raible, Matthew S. M. Bolton, Joseph G. Manning, Timothy P. Newfield, Nicola Di Cosmo, Francis Ludlow, Conor Kostick, Zhen Yang, Lisa Coyle McClung, Matthew Amesbury, Alistair Monteath, Paul D. M. Hughes, Pete G. Langdon, Dan Charman, Robert Booth, Kimberley L. Davies, Antony Blundell, and Graeme T. Swindles
Clim. Past, 18, 1475–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant Northern Hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal response is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption even when it is precisely dated.
Davide Zanchettin, Claudia Timmreck, Myriam Khodri, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Manabu Abe, Slimane Bekki, Jason Cole, Shih-Wei Fang, Wuhu Feng, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Nicolas Lebas, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Landon Rieger, Alan Robock, Sara Rubinetti, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Helen Weierbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2265–2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides metadata and first analyses of the volc-pinatubo-full experiment of CMIP6-VolMIP. Results from six Earth system models reveal significant differences in radiative flux anomalies that trace back to different implementations of volcanic forcing. Surface responses are in contrast overall consistent across models, reflecting the large spread due to internal variability. A second phase of VolMIP shall consider both aspects toward improved protocol for volc-pinatubo-full.
Gill Plunkett, Michael Sigl, Hans F. Schwaiger, Emma L. Tomlinson, Matthew Toohey, Joseph R. McConnell, Jonathan R. Pilcher, Takeshi Hasegawa, and Claus Siebe
Clim. Past, 18, 45–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-45-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-45-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We report the identification of volcanic ash associated with a sulfate layer in Greenland ice cores previously thought to have been from the Vesuvius 79 CE eruption and which had been used to confirm the precise dating of the Greenland ice-core chronology. We find that the tephra was probably produced by an eruption in Alaska. We show the importance of verifying sources of volcanic signals in ice cores through ash analysis to avoid errors in dating ice cores and interpreting volcanic impacts.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Stephan J. Lorenz, Michael Sigl, Matthew Toohey, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 17, 2481–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using the comprehensive Earth system model, MPI-ESM1.2, we explore the global Holocene vegetation changes and interpret them in terms of the Holocene climate change. The model results reveal that most of the Holocene vegetation transitions seen outside the high northern latitudes can be attributed to modifications in the intensity of the global summer monsoons.
Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Davide Zanchettin, Stefan Brönnimann, Elin Lundstad, and Rob Wilson
Clim. Past, 17, 1455–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The 1809 eruption is one of the most recent unidentified volcanic eruptions with a global climate impact. We demonstrate that climate model simulations of the 1809 eruption show generally good agreement with many large-scale temperature reconstructions and early instrumental records for a range of radiative forcing estimates. In terms of explaining the spatially heterogeneous and temporally delayed Northern Hemisphere cooling suggested by tree-ring networks, the investigation remains open.
John Staunton-Sykes, Thomas J. Aubry, Youngsub M. Shin, James Weber, Lauren R. Marshall, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alex Archibald, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9009–9029, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9009-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9009-2021, 2021
Michaela I. Hegglin, Susann Tegtmeier, John Anderson, Adam E. Bourassa, Samuel Brohede, Doug Degenstein, Lucien Froidevaux, Bernd Funke, John Gille, Yasuko Kasai, Erkki T. Kyrölä, Jerry Lumpe, Donal Murtagh, Jessica L. Neu, Kristell Pérot, Ellis E. Remsberg, Alexei Rozanov, Matthew Toohey, Joachim Urban, Thomas von Clarmann, Kaley A. Walker, Hsiang-Jui Wang, Carlo Arosio, Robert Damadeo, Ryan A. Fuller, Gretchen Lingenfelser, Christopher McLinden, Diane Pendlebury, Chris Roth, Niall J. Ryan, Christopher Sioris, Lesley Smith, and Katja Weigel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1855–1903, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1855-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1855-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
An overview of the SPARC Data Initiative is presented, to date the most comprehensive assessment of stratospheric composition measurements spanning 1979–2018. Measurements of 26 chemical constituents obtained from an international suite of space-based limb sounders were compiled into vertically resolved, zonal monthly mean time series. The quality and consistency of these gridded datasets are then evaluated using a climatological validation approach and a range of diagnostics.
Margot Clyne, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael J. Mills, Myriam Khodri, William Ball, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Nicolas Lebas, Graham Mann, Lauren Marshall, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Fiona Tummon, Davide Zanchettin, Yunqian Zhu, and Owen B. Toon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3317–3343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study finds how and why five state-of-the-art global climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosols differ when simulating the aftermath of large volcanic injections as part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP). We identify and explain the consequences of significant disparities in the underlying physics and chemistry currently in some of the models, which are problems likely not unique to the models participating in this study.
Sandip S. Dhomse, Graham W. Mann, Juan Carlos Antuña Marrero, Sarah E. Shallcross, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Lauren Marshall, N. Luke Abraham, and Colin E. Johnson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13627–13654, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13627-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We confirm downward adjustment of SO2 emission to simulate the Pinatubo aerosol cloud with aerosol microphysics models. Similar adjustment is also needed to simulate the El Chichón and Agung volcanic cloud, indicating potential missing removal or vertical redistribution process in models. Important inhomogeneities in the CMIP6 forcing datasets after Agung and El Chichón eruptions are difficult to reconcile. Quasi-biennial oscillation plays an important role in modifying stratospheric warming.
Victor Brovkin, Stephan Lorenz, Thomas Raddatz, Tatiana Ilyina, Irene Stemmler, Matthew Toohey, and Martin Claussen
Biogeosciences, 16, 2543–2555, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Mechanisms of atmospheric CO2 growth by 20 ppm from 6000 BCE to the pre-industrial period are still uncertain. We apply the Earth system model MPI-ESM-LR for two transient simulations of the climate–carbon cycle. An additional process, e.g. carbonate accumulation on shelves, is required for consistency with ice-core CO2 data. Our simulations support the hypothesis that the ocean was a source of CO2 until the late Holocene when anthropogenic CO2 sources started to affect atmospheric CO2.
Claudia Timmreck, Graham W. Mann, Valentina Aquila, Rene Hommel, Lindsay A. Lee, Anja Schmidt, Christoph Brühl, Simon Carn, Mian Chin, Sandip S. Dhomse, Thomas Diehl, Jason M. English, Michael J. Mills, Ryan Neely, Jianxiong Sheng, Matthew Toohey, and Debra Weisenstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2581–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2581-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2581-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The paper describes the experimental design of the Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (ISA-MIP). ISA-MIP will improve understanding of stratospheric aerosol processes, chemistry, and dynamics and constrain climate impacts of background aerosol variability and small and large volcanic eruptions. It will help to asses the stratospheric aerosol contribution to the early 21st century global warming hiatus period and the effects from hypothetical geoengineering schemes.
Lauren Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Ken S. Carslaw, Graham W. Mann, Michael Sigl, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Davide Zanchettin, William T. Ball, Slimane Bekki, James S. A. Brooke, Sandip Dhomse, Colin Johnson, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, James O. Pope, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use four global aerosol models to compare the simulated sulfate deposition from the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption to ice core records. Inter-model volcanic sulfate deposition differs considerably. Volcanic sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets is used to estimate the atmospheric sulfate burden and subsequently radiative forcing of historic eruptions. Our results suggest that deriving such relationships from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Matthew Toohey and Michael Sigl
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 809–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-809-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-809-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Based on ice core sulfate records from Greenland and Antarctica, the eVolv2k database provides volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection estimates from 500 BCE to 1900 CE along with reconstructed aerosol optical properties needed for climate model simulations. The eVolv2k database constitutes a significant update to prior ice-core-based volcanic forcing reconstructions for climate models, improving the accuracy of volcanic forcing, especially before 1250 CE, and extending the record by 1000 years.
Alina Fiehn, Birgit Quack, Helmke Hepach, Steffen Fuhlbrügge, Susann Tegtmeier, Matthew Toohey, Elliot Atlas, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6723–6741, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6723-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6723-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLSs) are naturally produced in the ocean and emitted to the atmosphere. In the stratosphere, these compounds can have a significant influence on the ozone layer and climate. During a research cruise in the west Indian Ocean, we found an important source region of halogenated VSLSs during the Asian summer monsoon. Modeling the transport from the ocean to the stratosphere we found two main pathways, one over the Indian Ocean and one over northern India.
Matthew Toohey, Bjorn Stevens, Hauke Schmidt, and Claudia Timmreck
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4049–4070, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4049-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4049-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric sulfate aerosols from volcanic eruptions have a significant impact on the Earth's climate. The Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) volcanic forcing generator provides a tool whereby the optical properties of volcanic aerosols can be included in climate model simulations in a self-consistent, complete, and flexible manner. EVA is based on satellite observations of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption but can be applied to any real or hypothetical eruption of interest.
Nathan P. Gillett, Hideo Shiogama, Bernd Funke, Gabriele Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Katja Matthes, Benjamin D. Santer, Daithi Stone, and Claudia Tebaldi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3685–3697, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Detection and attribution of climate change is the process of determining the causes of observed climate changes, which has underpinned key conclusions on the role of human influence on climate in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper describes a coordinated set of climate model experiments that will form part of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and will support improved attribution of climate change in the next IPCC report.
Davide Zanchettin, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Anja Schmidt, Edwin P. Gerber, Gabriele Hegerl, Alan Robock, Francesco S. R. Pausata, William T. Ball, Susanne E. Bauer, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Michael Mills, Marion Marchand, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Eugene Rozanov, Angelo Rubino, Andrea Stenke, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating volcanically-forced climate variability is a challenging task for climate models. The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) – an endorsed contribution to CMIP6 – defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability of results across different climate models. This paper illustrates the design of VolMIP's experiments and describes the aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.
M. Toohey, K. Krüger, M. Bittner, C. Timmreck, and H. Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13063–13079, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13063-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13063-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system model simulations are used to investigate the impact of volcanic aerosol forcing on stratospheric dynamics, e.g. the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar vortex. We find that mechanisms linking aerosol heating and high-latitude dynamics are not as direct as often assumed; high-latitude effects result from changes in stratospheric circulation and related vertical motions. The simulated responses also show evidence of being sensitive to the structure of the volcanic forcing used.
T. Russon, A. W. Tudhope, G. C. Hegerl, M. Collins, and J. Tindall
Clim. Past, 9, 1543–1557, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1543-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1543-2013, 2013
M. Toohey and T. von Clarmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 937–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-937-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-937-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Feedback and Forcing | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Centennial-Decadal
Dynamical and hydrological changes in climate simulations of the last millennium
Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600–present
10Be in late deglacial climate simulated by ECHAM5-HAM – Part 1: Climatological influences on 10Be deposition
Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, and Jason E. Smerdon
Clim. Past, 16, 1285–1307, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1285-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1285-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work analyses the behavior of atmospheric dynamics and hydroclimate in climate simulations of the last millennium. In particular, how external forcing factors, like solar and volcanic activity and greenhouse gas emissions, impact variables like temperature, pressure, wind, precipitation, and soil moisture is assessed. The results of these analyses show that changes in the forcing could alter the zonal circulation and the intensity and distribution of monsoons and convergence zones.
F. Arfeuille, D. Weisenstein, H. Mack, E. Rozanov, T. Peter, and S. Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 10, 359–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-359-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-359-2014, 2014
U. Heikkilä, S. J. Phipps, and A. M. Smith
Clim. Past, 9, 2641–2649, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2641-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2641-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Allen, M. R. and Stott, P. A.: Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal
fingerprinting, part I: theory, Clim. Dynam., 21, 477–491,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0313-9, 2003. a
Ammann, C. M., Joos, F., Schimel, D. S., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Tomas,
R. A.: Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from
transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 3713–3718, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0605064103, 2007. a
Anchukaitis, K. J., Breitenmoser, P., Briffa, K. R., Buchwal, A., Büntgen, U., Cook, E. R., D'Arrigo, R. D., Esper, J., Evans, M. N., Frank, D., Grudd, H., Gunnarson, B. E., Hughes, M. K., Kirdyanov, A. V., Krner, C., Krusic, P. J., Luckman, B., Melvin, T. M., Salzer, M. W., Shashkin, A. V., Timmreck, C., Vaganov, E. A., and Wilson, R. J. S.: Tree rings and volcanic cooling, Nat. Geosci., 5, 836–837, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1645, 2012. a
Anchukaitis, K. J., Wilson, R., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Cook, E. R.,
D'Arrigo, R., Davi, N., Esper, J., Frank, D., Gunnarson, B. E., Hegerl, G.,
Helama, S., Klesse, S., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Myglan, V., Osborn,
T. J., Zhang, P., Rydval, M., Schneider, L., Schurer, A., Wiles, G., and
Zorita, E.: Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree
rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 163, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.02.020, 2017. a, b, c
Aubry, T. J., Toohey, M., Marshall, L., Schmidt, A., and Jellinek, A. M.: A New Volcanic Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosol Forcing Emulator (EVA_H):
Comparison With Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD031303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd031303, 2020. a
Barboza, L., Li, B., Tingley, M. P., and Viens, F. G.: Reconstructing past
temperatures from natural proxies and estimated climate forcings using short-
and long-memory models, Ann. Appl. Stat., 8, 1966–2001, https://doi.org/10.1214/14-aoas785, 2014. a
Bard, E., Raisbeck, G. M., Yiou, F., and Jouzel, J.: Solar modulation of
cosmogenic nuclide production over the last millennium: comparison between
14C and 10Be records, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 150, 453–462, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0012-821x(97)00082-4, 1997. a
Baroni, M., Bard, E., and ASTER Team: A new 10Be record recovered from an Antarctic ice core: validity and limitations to record the solar activity, in: EGU General Assembly 2015, 12–17 Apri 2015, Vienna, Austria, https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.6357B (last access: 10 May 2023), 2015. a
Baroni, M., Bard, E., Petit, J.-R., Viseur, S., and ASTER Team: Persistent Draining of the Stratospheric 10Be Reservoir After the Samalas Volcanic Eruption (1257 CE), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 7082–7097, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd029823, 2019. a
Beer, J., Andree, M., Oeschger, H., Stauffer, B., Balzer, R., Bonani, G.,
Stoller, C., Suter, M., Woelfli, W., and Finkel, R. C.: Temporal 10Be
Variations in Ice, Radiocarbon, 25, 269–278, https://doi.org/10.1017/s0033822200005579, 1983. a
Berger, A. and Loutre, M. F.: Insolation values for the climate of the last 10 million years, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 10, 297–317,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0277-3791(91)90033-q, 1991. a
Berger, A. L.: Long-Term Variations of Daily Insolation and Quaternary Climatic Changes, J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 2362–2367,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035<2362:ltvodi>2.0.co;2, 1978. a
Cook, E. R., Meko, D. M., Stahle, D. W., and Cleaveland, M. K.: Drought
Reconstructions for the Continental United States, J. Climate, 12, 1145–1162, 1999. a
Crowley, T. J.: Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years, Science,
289, 270–277, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5477.270, 2000. a
Crowley, T. J. and Lowery, T. S.: How Warm Was the Medieval Warm Period?,
Ambio, 29, 51–54, https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-29.1.51, 2000. a
Crowley, T. J. and Unterman, M. B.: Technical details concerning development of a 1200 yr proxy index for global volcanism, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5,
187–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-187-2013, 2013. a, b
Cummins, D. P., Stephenson, D. B., and Stott, P. A.: Optimal Estimation of
Stochastic Energy Balance Model Parameters, J. Climate, 33, 7909–7926, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0589.1, 2020. a
Esper, J., Schneider, L., Smerdon, J. E., Schöne, B. R., and Büntgen,
U.: Signals and memory in tree-ring width and density data, Dendrochronologia, 35, 62–70, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2015.07.001, 2015. a
Esper, J., Büntgen, U., Hartl-Meier, C., Oppenheimer, C., and Schneider, L.:
Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies during the 1450s period of
ambiguous volcanic forcing, Bull. Volcanol., 79, 41, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-017-1125-9, 2017. a, b
Etminan, M., Myhre, G., Highwood, E. J., and Shine, K. P.: Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the
methane radiative forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 12614–12623, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl071930, 2016. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Feulner, G.: Are the most recent estimates for Maunder Minimum solar irradiance in agreement with temperature reconstructions?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl048529, 2011. a
Franke, J., Frank, D., Raible, C. C., Esper, J., and Brönnimann, S.:
Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 360–364, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1816, 2013. a
Friedman, A. R., Hegerl, G. C., Schurer, A. P., Lee, S.-Y., Kong, W., Cheng,
W., and Chiang, J. C. H.: Forced and Unforced Decadal Behavior of the
Interhemispheric SST Contrast during the Instrumental Period (1881–2012):
Contextualizing the Late 1960s-Early 1970s Shift, J. Climate, 33, 3487–3509, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0102.1, 2020. a
Fröhlich, C.: Solar Irradiance Variability Since 1978, in: Solar Variability
and Planetary Climates, Springer, New York, 53–65,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-48341-2_5, 2006. a
Gao, C., Robock, A., and Ammann, C.: Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D23111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd010239, 2008. a
Geoffroy, O., Saint-Martin, D., Bellon, G., Voldoire, A., Olivié, D.
J. L., and Tytéca, S.: Transient Climate Response in a Two-Layer
Energy-Balance Model. Part II: Representation of the Efficacy of Deep-Ocean
Heat Uptake and Validation for CMIP5 AOGCMs, J. Climate, 26, 1859–1876, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00196.1, 2013a. a, b
Geoffroy, O., Saint-Martin, D., Olivié, D. J. L., Voldoire, A., Bellon,
G., and Tytéca, S.: Transient Climate Response in a Two-Layer
Energy-Balance Model. Part I: Analytical Solution and Parameter Calibration
Using CMIP5 AOGCM Experiments, J. Climate, 26, 1841–1857,
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00195.1, 2013b. a, b
Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C. A., Banks, H., Gregory, J. M., Johns, T. C., Mitchell, J. F. B., and Wood, R. A.: The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments, Clim. Dynam., 16, 147–168,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050010, 2000. a
Gray, L. J., Beer, J., Geller, M., Haigh, J. D., Lockwood, M., Matthes, K.,
Cubasch, U., Fleitmann, D., Harrison, G., Hood, L., Luterbacher, J., Meehl,
G. A., Shindell, D., van Geel, B., and White, W.: Solar Influences On Climate, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009rg000282, 2010. a
Guevara-Murua, A., Williams, C. A., Hendy, E. J., Rust, A. C., and Cashman,
K. V.: Observations of a stratospheric aerosol veilfrom a tropical volcanic
eruption in December 1808: is this the Unknown ∼1809 eruption?,
Clim. Past, 10, 1707–1722, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1707-2014, 2014. a
Guillet, S., Corona, C., Stoffel, M., Khodri, M., Lavigne, F., Ortega, P.,
Eckert, N., Sielenou, P. D., Daux, V., Sidorova, O. V. C., Davi, N.,
Edouard, J.-L., Zhang, Y., Luckman, B. H., Myglan, V. S., Guiot, J.,
Beniston, M., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Oppenheimer, C.: Climate response to
the Samalas volcanic eruption in 1257 revealed by proxy records, Nat. Geosci., 10, 123–128, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2875, 2017a. a, b, c
Guillet, S., Corona, C., Stoffel, M., Khodri, M., Lavigne, F., Ortega, P., Eckert, N., Dkengne Sielenou, P., Daux, V., Churakova (Sidorova), O. V., Davi, N. K., Edouard, J.-L., Zhang, Y., Luckman, B. H., Myglan, V. S., Guiot, J., Beniston, M., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Oppenheimer, C.: NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology – Northern Hemisphere 1,500 Year Summer Temperature Reconstructions, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information [data set], https://doi.org/10.25921/42GH-Z167, 2017b. a
Hakim, G. J., Emile-Geay, J., Steig, E. J., Noone, D., Anderson, D. M., Tardif, R., Steiger, N., and Perkins, W. A.: The last millennium climate reanalysis project: Framework and first results, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 6745–6764, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jd024751, 2016. a
Hanhijärvi, S., Tingley, M. P., and Korhola, A.: Pairwise comparisons to
reconstruct mean temperature in the Arctic Atlantic Region over the last
2,000 years, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2039–2060, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1701-4, 2013. a
Haustein, K., Allen, M. R., Forster, P. M., Otto, F. E. L., Mitchell, D. M.,
Matthews, H. D., and Frame, D. J.: A real-time Global Warming Index, Sci. Rep., 7, 15417, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14828-5, 2017. a
Haustein, K., Otto, F. E. L., Venema, V., Jacobs, P., Cowtan, K., Hausfather,
Z., Way, R. G., White, B., Subramanian, A., and Schurer, A. P.: A Limited
Role for Unforced Internal Variability in Twentieth-Century Warming, J. Climate, 32, 4893–4917, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0555.1, 2019. a, b
Hegerl, G. C., Crowley, T. J., Baum, S. K., Kim, K.-Y., and Hyde, W. T.:
Detection of volcanic, solar and greenhouse gas signals in paleo-reconstructions of Northern Hemispheric temperature, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 46, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002gl016635, 2003. a
Hegerl, G. C., Crowley, T. J., Hyde, W. T., and Frame, D. J.: Climate
sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven
centuries, Nature, 440, 1029–1032, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04679, 2006. a, b
Held, I. M., Winton, M., Takahashi, K., Delworth, T., Zeng, F., and Vallis,
G. K.: Probing the Fast and Slow Components of Global Warming by Returning
Abruptly to Preindustrial Forcing, J. Climate, 23, 2418–2427,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3466.1, 2010. a, b, c
Hind, A., Moberg, A., and Sundberg, R.: Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last
millennium – Part 2: A pseudo-proxy study addressing the amplitude of solar
forcing, Clim. Past, 8, 1355–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1355-2012, 2012. a
Hoesly, R. M., Smith, S. J., Feng, L., Klimont, Z., Janssens-Maenhout, G.,
Pitkanen, T., Seibert, J. J., Vu, L., Andres, R. J., Bolt, R. M., Bond, T. C., Dawidowski, L., Kholod, N., ichi Kurokawa, J., Li, M., Liu, L., Lu, Z., Moura, M. C. P., O'Rourke, P. R., and Zhang, Q.: Historical (1750–2014)
anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community
Emissions Data System (CEDS), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 369–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018, 2018. a
Judge, P. G., Lockwood, G. W., Radick, R. R., Henry, G. W., Shapiro, A. I.,
Schmutz, W., and Lindsey, C.: Confronting a solar irradiance reconstruction
with solar and stellar data, Astron. Astrophys., 544, A88,
https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201218903, 2012. a
Jungclaus, J. H., Bard, E., Baroni, M., Braconnot, P., Cao, J., Chini, L. P.,
Egorova, T., Evans, M., Gonzáez-Rouco, J. F., Goosse, H., Hurtt, G. C., Joos, F., Kaplan, J. O., Khodri, M., Goldewijk, K. K., Krivova, N., LeGrande, A. N., Lorenz, S. J., Luterbacher, J., Man, W., Maycock, A. C., Meinshausen, M., Moberg, A., Muscheler, R., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Otto-Bliesner, B. I., Phipps, S. J., Pongratz, J., Rozanov, E., Schmidt, G. A., Schmidt, H., Schmutz, W., Schurer, A., Shapiro, A. I., Sigl, M., Smerdon, J. E., Solanki, S. K., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Usoskin, I. G., Wagner, S., Wu, C.-J., Yeo, K. L., Zanchettin, D., Zhang, Q., and Zorita, E.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d, e
Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A. C. M., and
Levrard, B.: A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth, Astron. Astrophys., 428, 261–285, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20041335, 2004. a
Li, S. and Jarvis, A.: Long run surface temperature dynamics of an A-OGCM:
the HadCM3 4 × CO2 forcing experiment revisited, Clim. Dynam., 33, 817–825, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0581-0, 2009. a
Lockwood, M. and Ball, W. T.: Placing limits on long-term variations in
quiet-Sun irradiance and their contribution to total solar irradiance and
solar radiative forcing of climate, P. Roy. Soc. A, 476, 20200077, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2020.0077, 2020. a
Lücke, L. J.: Supporting material for “The effect of uncertainties in natural forcing records on simulated temperature during the last Millennium”, The University of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences [code],
https://doi.org/10.7488/DS/3834, 2023. a
Lücke, L. J., Schurer, A. P., Wilson, R., and Hegerl, G. C.: Orbital
Forcing Strongly Influences Seasonal Temperature Trends During the Last
Millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL088776, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl088776, 2021. a, b
Luterbacher, J., Xoplaki, E., Dietrich, D., Rickli, R., Jacobeit, J., Beck, C., Gyalistras, D., Schmutz, C., and Wanner, H.: Reconstruction of sea level
pressure fields over the Eastern North Atlantic and Europe back to 1500,
Clim. Dynam., 18, 545–561, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-001-0196-6, 2002. a
Mann, M. E.: On smoothing potentially non-stationary climate time series,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L07214, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gl019569, 2004. a
Mann, M. E.: Smoothing of climate time series revisited, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L16708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl034716, 2008. a
Mann, M. E., Zhang, Z., Hughes, M. K., Bradley, R. S., Miller, S. K.,
Rutherford, S., and Ni, F.: Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 13252–13257, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0805721105, 2008. a
Mann, M. E., Steinman, B. A., Brouillette, D. J., Fernandez, A., and Miller,
S. K.: On the Estimation of Internal Climate Variability During the
Preindustrial Past Millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL096596, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl096596, 2022. a
Marshall, L. R., Johnson, J. S., Mann, G. W., Lee, L., Dhomse, S. S., Regayre, L., Yoshioka, M., Carslaw, K. S., and Schmidt, A.: Exploring How Eruption Source Parameters Affect Volcanic Radiative Forcing Using Statistical Emulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 964–985,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd028675, 2019. a
Marshall, L. R., Smith, C. J., Forster, P. M., Aubry, T. J., Andrews, T., and
Schmidt, A.: Large Variations in Volcanic Aerosol Forcing Efficiency Due to
Eruption Source Parameters and Rapid Adjustments, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL090241, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl090241, 2020. a, b, c, d
Marshall, L. R., Schmidt, A., Johnson, J. S., Mann, G. W., Lee, L. A., Rigby,
R., and Carslaw, K. S.: Unknown Eruption Source Parameters Cause Large
Uncertainty in Historical Volcanic Radiative Forcing Reconstructions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD033578, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd033578, 2021. a
Masson-Delmotte, V., Schulz, M., Abe-Ouichi, A., Beer, J., Ganopolski, A.,
Rouco, J. G., Jansen, E., Lambeck, K., Luterbacher, J., Naish, T., Osborn,
T., Otto-Bliesner, B., Quinn, T., Ramesh, R., Rojas, M., Shao, X., and
Timmermann, A.: Information from Paleoclimate Archives, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
edited by: Stocker, T., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.,
Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P., Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, ISBN 978-1-107-66182-0, 2013. a
Meinshausen, M., Vogel, E., Nauels, A., Lorbacher, K., Meinshausen, N.,
Etheridge, D. M., Fraser, P. J., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Trudinger, C. M., Krummel, P. B., Beyerle, U., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., Enting, I. G., Law, R. M., Lunder, C. R., O'Doherty, S., Prinn, R. G., Reimann, S.,
Rubino, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., Wang, R. H. J., and Weiss, R.:
Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2057–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, 2017. a
Millar, R. J., Nicholls, Z. R., Friedlingstein, P., and Allen, M. R.: A
modified impulse-response representation of the global near-surface air
temperature and atmospheric concentration response to carbon dioxide emissions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7213–7228, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7213-2017, 2017. a, b
Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A., Winn, J. P., Hogan, E., Killick, R. E., Dunn, R. J. H., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P. D., and Simpson, I. R.: An Updated Assessment of Near-Surface Temperature Change From 1850: The HadCRUT5 Data Set, J. Geophys. Re.-Atmos., 126, e2019JD032361, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd032361, 2021. a
Muscheler, R., Joos, F., Beer, J., Müller, S. A., Vonmoos, M., and
Snowball, I.: Solar activity during the last 1000 years inferred from
radionuclide records, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 26, 82–97,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.07.012, 2007. a
Nandy, D., Martens, P. C. H., Obridko, V., Dash, S., and Georgieva, K.: Solar
evolution and extrema: current state of understanding of long-term solar
variability and its planetary impacts, Prog. Earth Planet. Sci., 8, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-021-00430-x, 2021. a
Neukom, R., Gergis, J., Karoly, D. J., Wanner, H., Curran, M., Elbert, J.,
González-Rouco, F., Linsley, B. K., Moy, A. D., Mundo, I., Raible,
C. C., Steig, E. J., van Ommen, T., Vance, T., Villalba, R., Zinke, J., and
Frank, D.: Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 362–367, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2174, 2014. a
Neukom, R., Schurer, A. P., Steiger, N. J., and Hegerl, G. C.: Possible causes of data model discrepancy in the temperature history of the last Millennium, Sci. Rep., 8, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-25862-2, 2018. a
Neukom, R., Barboza, L. A., Erb, M. P., Shi, F., Emile-Geay, J., Evans, M. N., Franke, J., Kaufmann, D. S., Lücke, L., Rehfeld, K., Schurer, A., Zhu, F., Brönniman, S., Hakim, G. J., Henley, B. J., Ljungqvist, F. C., McKay, N., Valler, V., and von Gunten, L.: Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era, Nat. Geosci., 12, 643–649, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0400-0, 2019a. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i
Neukom, R., Barboza, L. A., Erb, M. P., Shi, F., Emile-Geay, J., Evans, M. N., Franke, J., Kaufman, D. S., Lücke, L., Rehfeld, K., Schurer, A. P., Zhu, F., Brönnimann, S., Hakim, G. J., Henley, B. J., Ljungqvist, F. C., McKay, N. P., Valler, V., and von Gunten, L.: NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology – PAGES2k Common Era Surface Temperature Reconstructions, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information [data set], https://doi.org/10.25921/TKXP-VN12, 2019b. a
NOAA: Paleo Data Search, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/ (last access: 10 May 2023), 2023. a
Otto, F. E. L., Frame, D. J., Otto, A., and Allen, M. R.: Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 917–920,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2716, 2015. a
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Fasullo, J., Jahn, A., Landrum, L.,
Stevenson, S., Rosenbloom, N., Mai, A., and Strand, G.: Climate Variability
and Change since 850 CE: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth
System Model, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 735–754, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-14-00233.1, 2016. a
PAGES2k Consortium: A global multiproxy database for temperature
reconstructions of the Common Era, Sci. Data, 4, 170088, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.88, 2017. a
Parsons, L. A., Brennan, M. K., Wills, R. C., and Proistosescu, C.: Magnitudes and Spatial Patterns of Interdecadal Temperature Variability in CMIP6, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086588, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl086588, 2020. a
PMIP – Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project – Phase III:
Last Millennium Experimental Design, PMIP3 [data set],
https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/pmip3/doku.php/pmip3:design:lm:final (last access: 16 June 2020), 2012. a
PMIP – Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project – Phase 4:
PMIP4-CMIP6 solar forcing data, PMIP4 [data set],
https://pmip4.lsce.ipsl.fr/doku.php/data:solar (last access: 16 June 2020), 2017. a
Pope, V. D., Gallani, M. L., Rowntree, P. R., and Stratton, R. A.: The impact
of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model:
HadAM3, Clim. Dynam., 16, 123–146, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050009, 2000. a
Raible, C. C., Brönnimann, S., Auchmann, R., Brohan, P., Frölicher, T. L.,
Graf, H.-F., Jones, P., Luterbacher, J., Muthers, S., Neukom, R., Robock, A.,
Self, S., Sudrajat, A., Timmreck, C., and Wegmann, M.: Tambora 1815 as a test
case for high impact volcanic eruptions: Earth system effects, WIREs Clim. Change, 7, 569–589, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.407, 2016. a
Roth, R. and Joos, F.: A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total
solar irradiance from the Holocene 14C and CO2 records: implications of data and model uncertainties, Clim. Past, 9, 1879–1909,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1879-2013, 2013. a
Rypdal, K.: Global temperature response to radiative forcing: Solar cycle
versus volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmo., 117, D06115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jd017283, 2012. a
Schmidt, A., Mills, M. J., Ghan, S., Gregory, J. M., Allan, R. P., Andrews, T., Bardeen, C. G., Conley, A., Forster, P. M., Gettelman, A., Portmann, R. W., Solomon, S., and Toon, O. B.: Volcanic Radiative Forcing From 1979 to 2015, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 12491–12508, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd028776, 2018. a
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P.,
Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R.,
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K.,
Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for
use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 33–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-33-2011, 2011. a, b, c
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P.,
Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R.,
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K.,
Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for
use in PMIP simulations of the Last Millennium (v1.1), Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 185–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-185-2012, 2012. a, b, c
Schneider, L., Smerdon, J. E., Büntgen, U., Wilson, R. J. S., Myglan,
V. S., Kirdyanov, A. V., and Esper, J.: Revising midlatitude summer
temperatures back to A.D. 600 based on a wood density network, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 4556–4562, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl063956, 2015a. a
Schneider, L., Smerdon, J. E., Büntgen, U., Wilson, R. J. S., Myglan, V. S., Kirdyanov, A., and Esper, J.: NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology – Northern Hemisphere Extratropics 1400 Year MXD Summer Temperature Reconstruction, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information [data set],
https://doi.org/10.25921/6MDT-5246, 2015b. a
Schneider, L., Smerdon, J. E., Pretis, F., Hartl-Meier, C., and Esper, J.: A
new archive of large volcanic events over the past millennium derived from
reconstructed summer temperatures, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 094005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a1b, 2017. a
Schurer, A., Mineter, M., and Tett, S.: Euroclim500 – Causes of change in European mean and extreme climate over the past 500 years, CEDA archive [data set], https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/9b51eb5d44524e4c9aebcbbc53d79a27,
(last access: 31 March 2021), 2013. a
Schurer, A. P., Hegerl, G. C., Mann, M. E., Tett, S. F. B., and Phipps, S. J.: Separating Forced from Chaotic Climate Variability over the Past Millennium, J. Climate, 26, 6954–6973, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00826.1, 2013. a
Schurer, A. P., Hegerl, G. C., and Obrochta, S. P.: Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 5974–5982, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl064458, 2015. a
Shapiro, A. I., Schmutz, W., Rozanov, E., Schoell, M., Haberreiter, M.,
Shapiro, A. V., and Nyeki, S.: A new approach to the long-term reconstruction
of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing, Astron.
Astrophys., 529, A67, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201016173, 2011. a, b, c
Sherwood, S. C., Webb, M. J., Annan, J. D., Armour, K. C., Forster, P. M.,
Hargreaves, J. C., Hegerl, G., Klein, S. A., Marvel, K. D., Rohling, E. J.,
Watanabe, M., Andrews, T., Braconnot, P., Bretherton, C. S., Foster, G. L.,
Hausfather, Z., Heydt, A. S., Knutti, R., Mauritsen, T., Norris, J. R.,
Proistosescu, C., Rugenstein, M., Schmidt, G. A., Tokarska, K. B., and
Zelinka, M. D.: An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple
Lines of Evidence, Revi. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000678, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019rg000678, 2020. a
Shi, F., Zhao, S., Guo, Z., Goosse, H., and Yin, Q.: Multi-proxy
reconstructions of May-September precipitation field in China over the past
500 years, Clim. Past, 13, 1919–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, 2017. a
Sigl, M., Winstrup, M., McConnell, J. R., Welten, K. C., Plunkett, G., Ludlow, F., Büntgen, U., Caffee, M., Chellman, N., Dahl-Jensen, D., Fischer, H., Kipfstuhl, S., Kostick, C., Maselli, O. J., Mekhaldi, F., Mulvaney, R., Muscheler, R., Pasteris, D. R., Pilcher, J. R., Salzer, M., Schüpbach, S., Steffensen, J. P., Vinther, B. M., and Woodruff, T. E.: Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years, Nature, 523, 543–549, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14565, 2015. a, b
Smith, C. J., Forster, P. M., Allen, M., Leach, N., Millar, R. J., Passerello, G. A., and Regayre, L. A.: FAIR v1.3: a simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2273–2297, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2273-2018, 2018. a
Steinhilber, F., Beer, J., and Fröhlich, C.: Total solar irradiance during the Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl040142, 2009. a, b, c
Steinhilber, F., Abreu, J. A., Beer, J., Brunner, I., Christl, M., Fischer, H., Heikkila, U., Kubik, P. W., Mann, M., McCracken, K. G., Miller, H., Miyahara, H., Oerter, H., and Wilhelms, F.: 9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 5967–5971, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1118965109, 2012. a, b, c
Stevenson, S., Fasullo, J. T., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Tomas, R. A., and Gao, C.: Role of eruption season in reconciling model and proxy responses to tropical volcanism, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 1822–1826,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1612505114, 2017. a
Stoffel, M., Khodri, M., Corona, C., Guillet, S., Poulain, V., Bekki, S.,
Guiot, J., Luckman, B. H., Oppenheimer, C., Lebas, N., Beniston, M., and
Masson-Delmotte, V.: Estimates of volcanic-induces cooling in the Nothern
Hemisphere over the past 1500 years, Nat. Geosci., 8, 784–788,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2526, 2015. a
Stuiver, M. and Quay, P. D.: Changes in Atmospheric Carbon-14 Attributed to a
Variable Sun, Science, 207, 11–19, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.207.4426.11, 1980. a
Suess, H. E.: The Radiocarbon Record in Tree Rings of the Last 8000 Years,
Radiocarbon, 22, 200–209, https://doi.org/10.1017/s0033822200009462, 1980. a
Tett, S. F. B., Gregory, J. M., Freychet, N., Cartis, C., Mineter, M. J., and
Roberts, L.: Does Model Calibration Reduce Uncertainty in Climate Projections?, J. Climate, 35, 2585–2602, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0434.1, 2022. a
Timmreck, C., Lorenz, S. J., Crowley, T. J., Kinne, S., Raddatz, T. J., Thomas, M. A., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Limited temperature response to the very large AD 1258 volcanic eruption, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl040083, 2009. a, b
Toohey, M. and Sigl, M.: Ice core-inferred volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection from 500 BCE to 1900 CE, World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/EVOLV2K_V1, 2016. a
Toohey, M., Krüger, K., and Timmreck, C.: Volcanic sulfate deposition to
Greenland and Antarctica: A modeling sensitivity study, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 4788–4800, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50428, 2013. a, b
Toohey, M., Stevens, B., Schmidt, H., and Timmreck, C.: Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA v1.0): an idealized forcing generator for climate simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4049–4070, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4049-2016, 2016. a
Toohey, M., Krüger, K., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C., Sigl, M., Stoffel, M.,
and Wilson, R.: Disproportionately strong climate forcing from extratropical
explosive volcanic eruptions, Nat. Geosci., 12, 100–107, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0286-2, 2019. a
Tsutsui, J.: Quantification of temperature response to CO2 forcing in
atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, Climatic Change, 140, 287–305, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1832-9, 2016. a
Tsutsui, J.: Diagnosing Transient Response to CO2 Forcing in Coupled
Atmosphere-Ocean Model Experiments Using a Climate Model Emulator, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085844, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl085844, 2020. a
Usoskin, I. G., Solanki, S. K., and Kovaltsov, G. A.: Grand minima and maxima
of solar activity: new observational constraints, Astron. Astrophys., 471, 301–309, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20077704, 2007. a
Usoskin, I. G., Horiuchi, K., Solanki, S., Kovaltsov, G. A., and Bard, E.: On
the common solar signal in different cosmogenic isotope data sets, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 114, A03112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008ja013888, 2009. a, b, c
Usoskin, I. G., Gallet, Y., Lopes, F., Kovaltsov, G. A., and Hulot, G.: Solar
activity during the Holocene: the Hallstatt cycle and its consequence for
grand minima and maxima, Astron. Astrophys., 587, A150,
https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201527295, 2016. a
Vieira, L. E. A., Solanki, S. K., Krivova, N. A., and Usoskin, I.: Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene, Astron. Astrophys., 531, A6, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201015843, 2011. a, b
Wang, Y.-M., Lean, J. L., and Sheeley Jr., N. R.: Modeling the Sun's Magnetic Field and Irradiance since 1713, Astrophys. J., 625, 522–538, https://doi.org/10.1086/429689, 2005. a
Wilson, R., Anchukaitis, K., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Cook, E.,
D'Arrigo, R., Davi, N., Esper, J., Frank, D., Gunnarson, B., Hegerl, G.,
Helama, S., Klesse, S., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Myglan, V., Osborn,
T. J., Rydval, M., Schneider, L., Schurer, A., Wiles, G., Zhang, P., and
Zorita, E.: Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree
rings: Part I: The long term context, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 134, 1–18,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.12.005, 2016a. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Wilson, R., Anchukaitis, K. J., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Cook, E. R., D'Arrigo, R. D., Davi, N. K., Esper, J., Frank, D. C., Gunnarson, B. E., Hegerl, G. C., Helama, S., Klesse, S., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Myglan, V. S., Osborn, T. J., Rydval, M., Schneider, L., Schurer, A. P., Wiles, G., Zhang, P., and Zorita, E.: NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology – Northern Hemisphere 1250 Year N-TREND Summer Temperature Reconstructions, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information [data set],
https://doi.org/10.25921/KZTR-JD59, 2016b.
a
Wu, C. J.: SATIRE-M reconstruction of spectral solar irradiance over the
Holocene, Max-Planck-Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften e. V. [data set], https://doi.org/10.17617/3.11, 2017. a
Zhu, F., Emile-Geay, J., Hakim, G. J., King, J., and Anchukaitis, K. J.:
Resolving the Differences in the Simulated and Reconstructed Temperature
Response to Volcanism, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086908, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl086908, 2020. a
Short summary
Evidence from tree rings and ice cores provides incomplete information about past volcanic eruptions and the Sun's activity. We model past climate with varying solar and volcanic scenarios and compare it to reconstructed temperature. We confirm that the Sun's influence was small and that uncertain volcanic activity can strongly influence temperature shortly after the eruption. On long timescales, independent data sources closely agree, increasing our confidence in understanding of past climate.
Evidence from tree rings and ice cores provides incomplete information about past volcanic...
