Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
Research article
15 May 2023
Research article |  | 15 May 2023

The effect of uncertainties in natural forcing records on simulated temperature during the last millennium

Lucie J. Lücke, Andrew P. Schurer, Matthew Toohey, Lauren R. Marshall, and Gabriele C. Hegerl

Related authors

Utilizing a Multi-Proxy to Model Comparison to Constrain the Season and Regionally Heterogeneous Impacts of the Mt. Samalas 1257 Eruption
Laura Wainman, Lauren R. Marshall, and Anja Schmidt
EGUsphere,,, 2023
Short summary
PalVol v1: A proxy-based semi-stochastic ensemble reconstruction of volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection for the last glacial cycle (130,000–50 BP)
Julie Christin Schindlbeck-Belo, Matthew Toohey, Marion Jegen, Steffen Kutterolf, and Kira Rehfeld
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss.,,, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
Short summary
Changes in the distribution of annual maximum temperatures in Europe
Graeme Auld, Gabriele C. Hegerl, and Ioannis Papastathopoulos
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 9, 45–66,,, 2023
Short summary
On the magnitude and sensitivity of the quasi-biennial oscillation response to a tropical volcanic eruption
Flossie Brown, Lauren Marshall, Peter H. Haynes, Rolando R. Garcia, Thomas Birner, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5335–5353,,, 2023
Short summary
Quantifying the contribution of forcing and three prominent modes of variability to historical climate
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957,,, 2023
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Feedback and Forcing | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Centennial-Decadal
Dynamical and hydrological changes in climate simulations of the last millennium
Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, and Jason E. Smerdon
Clim. Past, 16, 1285–1307,,, 2020
Short summary
Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600–present
F. Arfeuille, D. Weisenstein, H. Mack, E. Rozanov, T. Peter, and S. Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 10, 359–375,,, 2014
10Be in late deglacial climate simulated by ECHAM5-HAM – Part 1: Climatological influences on 10Be deposition
U. Heikkilä, S. J. Phipps, and A. M. Smith
Clim. Past, 9, 2641–2649,,, 2013

Cited articles

Allen, M. R. and Stott, P. A.: Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, part I: theory, Clim. Dynam., 21, 477–491,, 2003. a
Ammann, C. M., Joos, F., Schimel, D. S., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Tomas, R. A.: Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 3713–3718,, 2007. a
Anchukaitis, K. J., Breitenmoser, P., Briffa, K. R., Buchwal, A., Büntgen, U., Cook, E. R., D'Arrigo, R. D., Esper, J., Evans, M. N., Frank, D., Grudd, H., Gunnarson, B. E., Hughes, M. K., Kirdyanov, A. V., Krner, C., Krusic, P. J., Luckman, B., Melvin, T. M., Salzer, M. W., Shashkin, A. V., Timmreck, C., Vaganov, E. A., and Wilson, R. J. S.: Tree rings and volcanic cooling, Nat. Geosci., 5, 836–837,, 2012. a
Anchukaitis, K. J., Wilson, R., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Cook, E. R., D'Arrigo, R., Davi, N., Esper, J., Frank, D., Gunnarson, B. E., Hegerl, G., Helama, S., Klesse, S., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Myglan, V., Osborn, T. J., Zhang, P., Rydval, M., Schneider, L., Schurer, A., Wiles, G., and Zorita, E.: Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 163, 1–22,, 2017. a, b, c
Aubry, T. J., Toohey, M., Marshall, L., Schmidt, A., and Jellinek, A. M.: A New Volcanic Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosol Forcing Emulator (EVA_H): Comparison With Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD031303,, 2020. a
Short summary
Evidence from tree rings and ice cores provides incomplete information about past volcanic eruptions and the Sun's activity. We model past climate with varying solar and volcanic scenarios and compare it to reconstructed temperature. We confirm that the Sun's influence was small and that uncertain volcanic activity can strongly influence temperature shortly after the eruption. On long timescales, independent data sources closely agree, increasing our confidence in understanding of past climate.