Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
Research article
15 May 2023
Research article |  | 15 May 2023

The effect of uncertainties in natural forcing records on simulated temperature during the last millennium

Lucie J. Lücke, Andrew P. Schurer, Matthew Toohey, Lauren R. Marshall, and Gabriele C. Hegerl

Data sets

Ice core-inferred volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection from 500 BCE to 1900 CE M. Toohey and M. Sigl

PMIP4-CMIP6 solar forcing data PMIP - Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project - Phase 4

Last Millennium Experimental Design PMIP - Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project - Phase III

Euroclim500 - Causes of change in European mean and extreme climate over the past 500 years A. Schurer, M. Mineter, and S. Tett

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Northern Hemisphere 1250 Year N-TREND Summer Temperature Reconstructions R. Wilson, K. J. Anchukaitis, K. R. Briffa, U. Büntgen, E. R. Cook, R. D. D'Arrigo, N. K. Davi, J. Esper, D. C. Frank, B. E. Gunnarson, G. C. Hegerl, S. Helama, S. Klesse, P. J. Krusic, H. W. Linderholm, V. S. Myglan, T. J. Osborn, M. Rydval, L. Schneider, A. P. Schurer, G. Wiles, P. Zhang, and E. Zorita

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - PAGES2k Common Era Surface Temperature Reconstructions R. Neukom, L. A. Barboza, M. P. Erb, F. Shi, J. Emile-Geay, M. N. Evans, J. Franke, D. S. Kaufman, L. Lücke, K. Rehfeld, A. P. Schurer, F. Zhu, S. Brönnimann, G. J. Hakim, B. J. Henley, F. C. Ljungqvist, N. P. McKay, V. Valler, and L. von Gunten

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Northern Hemisphere 1,500 Year Summer Temperature Reconstructions S. Guillet, C. Corona, M. Stoffel, M. Khodri, F. Lavigne, P. Ortega, N. Eckert, P. Dkengne Sielenou, V. Daux, O. V. Churakova (Sidorova), N. K. Davi, J.-L. Edouard, Y. Zhang, B. Luckman, H. V. S. Myglan, J. Guiot, M. Beniston, V. Masson-Delmotte, and C. Oppenheimer

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Northern Hemisphere Extratropics 1400 Year MXD Summer Temperature Reconstruction L. Schneider, J. E. Smerdon, U. Büntgen, R. J. S. Wilson, V. S. Myglan, A. Kirdyanov, and J. Esper

Model code and software

Supporting material for "The effect of uncertainties in natural forcing records on simulated temperature during the last Millennium" L. Lücke

Short summary
Evidence from tree rings and ice cores provides incomplete information about past volcanic eruptions and the Sun's activity. We model past climate with varying solar and volcanic scenarios and compare it to reconstructed temperature. We confirm that the Sun's influence was small and that uncertain volcanic activity can strongly influence temperature shortly after the eruption. On long timescales, independent data sources closely agree, increasing our confidence in understanding of past climate.