Climate of the Past
Climate of the Past
CP
Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-959-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-959-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
Research article
 | 
15 May 2023
Research article |  | 15 May 2023

The effect of uncertainties in natural forcing records on simulated temperature during the last millennium

Lucie J. Lücke, Andrew P. Schurer, Matthew Toohey, Lauren R. Marshall, and Gabriele C. Hegerl

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-959-2023-supplement

Data sets

Ice core-inferred volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection from 500 BCE to 1900 CE M. Toohey and M. Sigl https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/EVOLV2K_V1

PMIP4-CMIP6 solar forcing data PMIP - Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project - Phase 4 https://pmip4.lsce.ipsl.fr/doku.php/data:solar

Last Millennium Experimental Design PMIP - Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project - Phase III https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/pmip3/doku.php/pmip3:design:lm:final

Euroclim500 - Causes of change in European mean and extreme climate over the past 500 years A. Schurer, M. Mineter, and S. Tett https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/9b51eb5d44524e4c9aebcbbc53d79a27

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Northern Hemisphere 1250 Year N-TREND Summer Temperature Reconstructions R. Wilson, K. J. Anchukaitis, K. R. Briffa, U. Büntgen, E. R. Cook, R. D. D'Arrigo, N. K. Davi, J. Esper, D. C. Frank, B. E. Gunnarson, G. C. Hegerl, S. Helama, S. Klesse, P. J. Krusic, H. W. Linderholm, V. S. Myglan, T. J. Osborn, M. Rydval, L. Schneider, A. P. Schurer, G. Wiles, P. Zhang, and E. Zorita https://doi.org/10.25921/KZTR-JD59

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - PAGES2k Common Era Surface Temperature Reconstructions R. Neukom, L. A. Barboza, M. P. Erb, F. Shi, J. Emile-Geay, M. N. Evans, J. Franke, D. S. Kaufman, L. Lücke, K. Rehfeld, A. P. Schurer, F. Zhu, S. Brönnimann, G. J. Hakim, B. J. Henley, F. C. Ljungqvist, N. P. McKay, V. Valler, and L. von Gunten https://doi.org/10.25921/TKXP-VN12

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Northern Hemisphere 1,500 Year Summer Temperature Reconstructions S. Guillet, C. Corona, M. Stoffel, M. Khodri, F. Lavigne, P. Ortega, N. Eckert, P. Dkengne Sielenou, V. Daux, O. V. Churakova (Sidorova), N. K. Davi, J.-L. Edouard, Y. Zhang, B. Luckman, H. V. S. Myglan, J. Guiot, M. Beniston, V. Masson-Delmotte, and C. Oppenheimer https://doi.org/10.25921/42GH-Z167

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Northern Hemisphere Extratropics 1400 Year MXD Summer Temperature Reconstruction L. Schneider, J. E. Smerdon, U. Büntgen, R. J. S. Wilson, V. S. Myglan, A. Kirdyanov, and J. Esper https://doi.org/10.25921/6MDT-5246

Model code and software

Supporting material for "The effect of uncertainties in natural forcing records on simulated temperature during the last Millennium" L. Lücke https://doi.org/10.7488/ds/3834

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Short summary
Evidence from tree rings and ice cores provides incomplete information about past volcanic eruptions and the Sun's activity. We model past climate with varying solar and volcanic scenarios and compare it to reconstructed temperature. We confirm that the Sun's influence was small and that uncertain volcanic activity can strongly influence temperature shortly after the eruption. On long timescales, independent data sources closely agree, increasing our confidence in understanding of past climate.
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