Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-681-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Mar 2023
Research article |
| 27 Mar 2023
| 27 Mar 2023
Indian Ocean variability changes in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project
Dept. Geography, University College London, London, United Kingdom
Kaustubh Thirumalai
Dept. Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
Edward Grindrod
Dept. Geography, University College London, London, United Kingdom
Jonathan Barnsley
Dept. Geography, University College London, London, United Kingdom
Related authors
Anni Zhao, Ran Feng, Chris M. Brierley, Jian Zhang, and Yongyun Hu
Clim. Past, 20, 1195–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1195-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse simulations with idealised aerosol scenarios to examine the importance of aerosol forcing on mPWP precipitation and how aerosol uncertainty could explain the data–model mismatch. We find further warming, a narrower and stronger ITCZ, and monsoon domain rainfall change after removal of industrial emissions. Aerosols have more impacts on tropical precipitation than the mPWP boundary conditions. This highlights the importance of prescribed aerosol scenarios in simulating mPWP climate.
Tom Keel, Chris Brierley, and Tamsin Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1229–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Jet streams are an important control on surface weather as their speed and shape can modify the properties of weather systems. Establishing trends in the operation of jet streams may provide some indication of the future of weather in a warming world. Despite this, it has not been easy to establish trends, as many methods have been used to characterise them in data. We introduce a tool containing various implementations of jet stream statistics and algorithms that works in a standardised manner.
Zhiyi Jiang, Chris Brierley, David Thornalley, and Sophie Sax
Clim. Past, 19, 107–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-107-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work looks at a series of model simulations of two past warm climates. We focus on the deep overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. We show that there are no robust changes in the overall strength of the circulation. We also show that the circulation hardly plays a role in changes in the surface climate across the globe.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Zhiyi Jiang, Rachel Eyles, Damián Oyarzún, and Jose Gomez-Dans
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2475–2488, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2475-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the way that our group have chosen to perform our recent analyses of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project ensemble simulations. We document the approach used to obtain and curate the simulations, process those outputs via the Climate Variability Diagnostics Package, and then continue through to compute ensemble-wide statistics and create figures. We also provide interim data from all steps, the codes used and the ability for users to perform their own analyses.
Maryam Ilyas, Douglas Nychka, Chris Brierley, and Serge Guillas
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7103–7121, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7103-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7103-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Instrumental temperature records are fundamental to climate science. There are spatial gaps in the distribution of these measurements across the globe. This lack of spatial coverage introduces coverage error. In this research, a methodology is developed and used to quantify the coverage errors. It results in a data product that, for the first time, provides a full description of both the spatial coverage uncertainties along with the uncertainties in the modeling of these spatial gaps.
Alexander Koch, Chris Brierley, and Simon L. Lewis
Biogeosciences, 18, 2627–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2627-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates of large-scale tree planting and forest restoration as a carbon sequestration tool typically miss a crucial aspect: the Earth system response to the increased land carbon sink from new vegetation. We assess the impact of tropical forest restoration using an Earth system model under a scenario that limits warming to 2 °C. Almost two-thirds of the carbon impact of forest restoration is offset by negative carbon cycle feedbacks, suggesting a more modest benefit than in previous studies.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The simulations for the past climate can inform us about the performance of climate models in different climate scenarios. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), when the CO2 level was comparable to today. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in the model simulations and imply that we must be careful when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Simon Opie, Richard G. Taylor, Chris M. Brierley, Mohammad Shamsudduha, and Mark O. Cuthbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 775–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Knowledge of the relationship between climate and groundwater is limited and typically undermined by the scale, duration and accessibility of observations. Using monthly satellite measurements newly compiled over 14 years in the tropics and sub-tropics, we show that the imprint of precipitation history on groundwater, i.e. hydraulic memory, is longer in drylands than humid environments with important implications for the understanding and management of groundwater resources under climate change.
Kira Rehfeld, Raphaël Hébert, Juan M. Lora, Marcus Lofverstrom, and Chris M. Brierley
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 447–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Under continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, it is likely that global mean surface temperature will continue to increase. Little is known about changes in climate variability. We analyze surface climate variability and compare it to mean change in colder- and warmer-than-present climate model simulations. In most locations, but not on subtropical land, simulated temperature variability up to decadal timescales decreases with mean temperature, and precipitation variability increases.
Chris Brierley and Ilana Wainer
Clim. Past, 14, 1377–1390, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1377-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1377-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Year-to-year changes in rainfall over Africa and South America are influenced by variations in the temperatures of tropical Atlantic variability. Here we investigate how these variations behave under climate change using a series of multi-model experiments. We look at how cold and warm climates of the past relate to future shifts in variability.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
J. H. Koh and C. M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 11, 1433–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1433-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1433-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Here we diagnose simulated changes in large-scale climate variables associated with the formation of tropical cyclones (i.e. hurricanes and typhoons). The cumulative potential for storm formation is pretty constant, despite the climate changes between the Last Glacial Maximum and the warm Pliocene. There are, however, coherent shifts in the relative strength of the storm regions. Little connection appears between the past behaviour in the five models studied and their future projections.
C. M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 11, 605–618, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-605-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-605-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Previously, model ensembles have shown little consensus in the response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to imposed forcings – either for the past or future. The recent coordinated experiment on the warm Pliocene (~3 million years ago) shows surprising agreement that there was a robustly weaker ENSO with a shift to lower frequencies. Suggested physical mechanisms cannot explain this coherent signal, and it warrants further investigation.
Anni Zhao, Ran Feng, Chris M. Brierley, Jian Zhang, and Yongyun Hu
Clim. Past, 20, 1195–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1195-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse simulations with idealised aerosol scenarios to examine the importance of aerosol forcing on mPWP precipitation and how aerosol uncertainty could explain the data–model mismatch. We find further warming, a narrower and stronger ITCZ, and monsoon domain rainfall change after removal of industrial emissions. Aerosols have more impacts on tropical precipitation than the mPWP boundary conditions. This highlights the importance of prescribed aerosol scenarios in simulating mPWP climate.
Tom Keel, Chris Brierley, and Tamsin Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1229–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Jet streams are an important control on surface weather as their speed and shape can modify the properties of weather systems. Establishing trends in the operation of jet streams may provide some indication of the future of weather in a warming world. Despite this, it has not been easy to establish trends, as many methods have been used to characterise them in data. We introduce a tool containing various implementations of jet stream statistics and algorithms that works in a standardised manner.
Zhiyi Jiang, Chris Brierley, David Thornalley, and Sophie Sax
Clim. Past, 19, 107–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-107-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work looks at a series of model simulations of two past warm climates. We focus on the deep overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. We show that there are no robust changes in the overall strength of the circulation. We also show that the circulation hardly plays a role in changes in the surface climate across the globe.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Zhiyi Jiang, Rachel Eyles, Damián Oyarzún, and Jose Gomez-Dans
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2475–2488, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2475-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the way that our group have chosen to perform our recent analyses of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project ensemble simulations. We document the approach used to obtain and curate the simulations, process those outputs via the Climate Variability Diagnostics Package, and then continue through to compute ensemble-wide statistics and create figures. We also provide interim data from all steps, the codes used and the ability for users to perform their own analyses.
Maryam Ilyas, Douglas Nychka, Chris Brierley, and Serge Guillas
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7103–7121, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7103-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7103-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Instrumental temperature records are fundamental to climate science. There are spatial gaps in the distribution of these measurements across the globe. This lack of spatial coverage introduces coverage error. In this research, a methodology is developed and used to quantify the coverage errors. It results in a data product that, for the first time, provides a full description of both the spatial coverage uncertainties along with the uncertainties in the modeling of these spatial gaps.
Alexander Koch, Chris Brierley, and Simon L. Lewis
Biogeosciences, 18, 2627–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2627-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates of large-scale tree planting and forest restoration as a carbon sequestration tool typically miss a crucial aspect: the Earth system response to the increased land carbon sink from new vegetation. We assess the impact of tropical forest restoration using an Earth system model under a scenario that limits warming to 2 °C. Almost two-thirds of the carbon impact of forest restoration is offset by negative carbon cycle feedbacks, suggesting a more modest benefit than in previous studies.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The simulations for the past climate can inform us about the performance of climate models in different climate scenarios. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), when the CO2 level was comparable to today. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in the model simulations and imply that we must be careful when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Simon Opie, Richard G. Taylor, Chris M. Brierley, Mohammad Shamsudduha, and Mark O. Cuthbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 775–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Knowledge of the relationship between climate and groundwater is limited and typically undermined by the scale, duration and accessibility of observations. Using monthly satellite measurements newly compiled over 14 years in the tropics and sub-tropics, we show that the imprint of precipitation history on groundwater, i.e. hydraulic memory, is longer in drylands than humid environments with important implications for the understanding and management of groundwater resources under climate change.
Erin L. McClymont, Heather L. Ford, Sze Ling Ho, Julia C. Tindall, Alan M. Haywood, Montserrat Alonso-Garcia, Ian Bailey, Melissa A. Berke, Kate Littler, Molly O. Patterson, Benjamin Petrick, Francien Peterse, A. Christina Ravelo, Bjørg Risebrobakken, Stijn De Schepper, George E. A. Swann, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Jessica E. Tierney, Carolien van der Weijst, Sarah White, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Anna S. von der Heydt, Stephen Hunter, Xiangyi Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 16, 1599–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the sea-surface temperature response to an interval of climate ~ 3.2 million years ago, when CO2 concentrations were similar to today and the near future. Our geological data and climate models show that global mean sea-surface temperatures were 2.3 to 3.2 ºC warmer than pre-industrial climate, that the mid-latitudes and high latitudes warmed more than the tropics, and that the warming was particularly enhanced in the North Atlantic Ocean.
Kira Rehfeld, Raphaël Hébert, Juan M. Lora, Marcus Lofverstrom, and Chris M. Brierley
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 447–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Under continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, it is likely that global mean surface temperature will continue to increase. Little is known about changes in climate variability. We analyze surface climate variability and compare it to mean change in colder- and warmer-than-present climate model simulations. In most locations, but not on subtropical land, simulated temperature variability up to decadal timescales decreases with mean temperature, and precipitation variability increases.
Liviu Giosan, William D. Orsi, Marco Coolen, Cornelia Wuchter, Ann G. Dunlea, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Samuel E. Munoz, Peter D. Clift, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, Valier Galy, and Dorian Q. Fuller
Clim. Past, 14, 1669–1686, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1669-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1669-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Climate reorganization during the early neoglacial anomaly (ENA) may explain the Harappan civilization metamorphosis from an urban, expansive culture to a rural, geographically-confined one. Landcover change is a candidate for causing this climate instability. During ENA agriculture along the flood-deficient floodplains of the Indus became too risky, which pushed people out. In the same time the Himalayan piedmont received augmented winter rain and steady summer precipitation, pulling people in.
Chris Brierley and Ilana Wainer
Clim. Past, 14, 1377–1390, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1377-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1377-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Year-to-year changes in rainfall over Africa and South America are influenced by variations in the temperatures of tropical Atlantic variability. Here we investigate how these variations behave under climate change using a series of multi-model experiments. We look at how cold and warm climates of the past relate to future shifts in variability.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
J. H. Koh and C. M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 11, 1433–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1433-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1433-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Here we diagnose simulated changes in large-scale climate variables associated with the formation of tropical cyclones (i.e. hurricanes and typhoons). The cumulative potential for storm formation is pretty constant, despite the climate changes between the Last Glacial Maximum and the warm Pliocene. There are, however, coherent shifts in the relative strength of the storm regions. Little connection appears between the past behaviour in the five models studied and their future projections.
C. M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 11, 605–618, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-605-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-605-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Previously, model ensembles have shown little consensus in the response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to imposed forcings – either for the past or future. The recent coordinated experiment on the warm Pliocene (~3 million years ago) shows surprising agreement that there was a robustly weaker ENSO with a shift to lower frequencies. Suggested physical mechanisms cannot explain this coherent signal, and it warrants further investigation.
C. R. Maupin, J. W. Partin, C.-C. Shen, T. M. Quinn, K. Lin, F. W. Taylor, J. L. Banner, K. Thirumalai, and D. J. Sinclair
Clim. Past, 10, 1319–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1319-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1319-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Climate Modelling | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Holocene
Modelling Mediterranean ocean biogeochemistry of the Last Glacial Maximum
Mid-Holocene climate at mid-latitudes: assessing the impact of Saharan greening
Dynamic interaction between lakes, climate, and vegetation across northern Africa during the mid-Holocene
Insights into the Australian mid-Holocene climate using downscaled climate models
Simulating dust emissions and secondary organic aerosol formation over northern Africa during the mid-Holocene Green Sahara period
Quantifying effects of Earth orbital parameters and greenhouse gases on mid-Holocene climate
Contribution of lakes in sustaining the Sahara greening during the mid-Holocene
Did the Bronze Age deforestation of Europe affect its climate? A regional climate model study using pollen-based land cover reconstructions
CHELSA-TraCE21k – high-resolution (1 km) downscaled transient temperature and precipitation data since the Last Glacial Maximum
Investigating hydroclimatic impacts of the 168–158 BCE volcanic quartet and their relevance to the Nile River basin and Egyptian history
Simulations of the Holocene climate in Europe using an interactive downscaling within the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.1)
Mid-Holocene climate of the Tibetan Plateau and hydroclimate in three major river basins based on high-resolution regional climate simulations
Comparison of the green-to-desert Sahara transitions between the Holocene and the last interglacial
Influence of long-term changes in solar irradiance forcing on the Southern Annular Mode
Simulated range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes from extended lakes and wetlands over North Africa
Calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation based on model-ensemble equilibrium and transient simulations from PMIP4 and PACMEDY
The long-standing dilemma of European summer temperatures at the mid-Holocene and other considerations on learning from the past for the future using a regional climate model
Mid-Holocene monsoons in South and Southeast Asia: dynamically downscaled simulations and the influence of the Green Sahara
The remote response of the South Asian Monsoon to reduced dust emissions and Sahara greening during the middle Holocene
Impact of dust in PMIP-CMIP6 mid-Holocene simulations with the IPSL model
Technical note: Characterising and comparing different palaeoclimates with dynamical systems theory
Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations
CMIP6/PMIP4 simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial using HadGEM3: comparison to the pre-industrial era, previous model versions and proxy data
Water isotopes – climate relationships for the mid-Holocene and preindustrial period simulated with an isotope-enabled version of MPI-ESM
Effects of land use and anthropogenic aerosol emissions in the Roman Empire
Strengths and challenges for transient Mid- to Late Holocene simulations with dynamical vegetation
Physical processes of cooling and mega-drought during the 4.2 ka BP event: results from TraCE-21ka simulations
Comparing the spatial patterns of climate change in the 9th and 5th millennia BP from TRACE-21 model simulations
Abrupt cold events in the North Atlantic Ocean in a transient Holocene simulation
Rapid increase in simulated North Atlantic dust deposition due to fast change of northwest African landscape during the Holocene
Evaluation of PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations of mid-Holocene climate in the Indo-Pacific, Australasian and Southern Ocean regions
Biome changes in Asia since the mid-Holocene – an analysis of different transient Earth system model simulations
Modeling precipitation δ18O variability in East Asia since the Last Glacial Maximum: temperature and amount effects across different timescales
Mid-to-late Holocene temperature evolution and atmospheric dynamics over Europe in regional model simulations
Effects of melting ice sheets and orbital forcing on the early Holocene warming in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere
The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene
The link between marine sediment records and changes in Holocene Saharan landscape: simulating the dust cycle
Stability of ENSO and its tropical Pacific teleconnections over the Last Millennium
Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes
The impact of Sahara desertification on Arctic cooling during the Holocene
Global climate simulations at 3000-year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean model
Reexamining the barrier effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the South Asian summer monsoon
Model–data comparison and data assimilation of mid-Holocene Arctic sea ice concentration
Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations
Mid-Holocene ocean and vegetation feedbacks over East Asia
A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 1: Model validation
Influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change and terrestrial carbon storage in the Last Glacial Maximum
Can an Earth System Model simulate better climate change at mid-Holocene than an AOGCM? A comparison study of MIROC-ESM and MIROC3
Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity
The sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes: a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulations
Katharina D. Six, Uwe Mikolajewicz, and Gerhard Schmiedl
Clim. Past, 20, 1785–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1785-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a physical and biogeochemical ocean model of the Mediterranean Sea to obtain a picture of the Last Glacial Maximum. The shallowing of the Strait of Gibraltar leads to a shallower pycnocline and more efficient nutrient export. Consistent with the sediment data, an increase in organic matter deposition is simulated, although this is based on lower biological production. This unexpected but plausible result resolves the apparent contradiction between planktonic and benthic proxy data.
Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shivangi Tiwari, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, and Qiong Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1735–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Palaeoclimate reconstructions suggest that, around 6000 years ago, a greening of the Sahara took place, accompanied by climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere at middle to high latitudes. In this study, a climate model is used to investigate how this drastic environmental change in the Sahara impacted remote regions. Specifically, climate simulations reveal significant modifications in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, affecting North American and European climates.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 20, 1595–1613, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1595-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1595-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We close the terrestrial water cycle across the Sahara and Sahel by integrating a new endorheic-lake model into a climate model. A factor analysis of mid-Holocene simulations shows that both dynamic lakes and dynamic vegetation individually contribute to a precipitation increase over northern Africa that is collectively greater than that caused by the interaction between lake and vegetation dynamics. Thus, the lake–vegetation interaction causes a relative drying response across the entire Sahel.
Andrew L. Lowry and Hamish A. McGowan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1211, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present simulations of the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial climate of Australia using coarse (2°) and finer (0.44°) resolution climate models. These simulations are compared to bioclimatic representation of the palaeoclimate of the mid-Holocene. The finer resolution simulations reduce the bias between the model and the bioclimatic results and highlight the improved value of using finer resolution models to simulate the palaeoclimate.
Putian Zhou, Zhengyao Lu, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Qiong Zhang, Juha Lento, Jianpu Bian, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Markku Kulmala, Michael Boy, and Risto Makkonen
Clim. Past, 19, 2445–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A Green Sahara with enhanced rainfall and larger vegetation cover existed in northern Africa about 6000 years ago. Biosphere–atmosphere interactions are found to be critical to explaining this wet period. Based on modeled vegetation reconstruction data, we simulated dust emissions and aerosol formation, which are key factors in biosphere–atmosphere interactions. Our results also provide a benchmark of aerosol climatology for future paleo-climate simulation experiments.
Yibo Kang and Haijun Yang
Clim. Past, 19, 2013–2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2013-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2013-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated the climate difference between the mid-Holocene (MH) and the preindustrial (PI) periods and quantified the effects of Earth orbital parameters (ORBs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the climate difference. We think the insignificant difference in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation between the MH and PI periods has resulted from the competing effects of the ORBs and the GHGs on the climate.
Yuheng Li, Kanon Kino, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Taikan Oki
Clim. Past, 19, 1891–1904, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our study using the isotope-enabled climate model MIROC5-iso model shows that lakes may have contributed to the Green Sahara during the mid-Holocene period (6000 years ago). The lakes induced cyclonic circulation response, enhancing the near-surface monsoon westerly flow and potentially humidifying the northwestern Sahara with the stronger West African Monsoon moving northward. Our findings provide valuable insights into understanding the presence of the Green Sahara during this period.
Gustav Strandberg, Jie Chen, Ralph Fyfe, Erik Kjellström, Johan Lindström, Anneli Poska, Qiong Zhang, and Marie-José Gaillard
Clim. Past, 19, 1507–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate around 2500 years ago is studied using reconstructions and models. The results suggest that LULCC impacted the climate in parts of Europe. Reconstructed LULCC shows up to 1.5 °C higher temperature in parts of Europe in some seasons. This relatively strong response implies that anthropogenic LULCC that had occurred by the late prehistoric period may have already affected the European climate by 2500 years ago.
Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Michael P. Nobis, Signe Normand, Catherine H. Graham, and Niklaus E. Zimmermann
Clim. Past, 19, 439–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-439-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present global monthly climate time series for air temperature and precipitation at 1 km resolution for the last 21 000 years. The topography at all time steps is created by combining high-resolution information on glacial cover from current and Last Glacial Maximum glacier databases with the interpolation of an ice sheet model and a coupling to mean annual temperatures from a global circulation model.
Ram Singh, Kostas Tsigaridis, Allegra N. LeGrande, Francis Ludlow, and Joseph G. Manning
Clim. Past, 19, 249–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-249-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work is a modeling effort to investigate the hydroclimatic impacts of a volcanic
quartetduring 168–158 BCE over the Nile River basin in the context of Ancient Egypt's Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE). The model simulated a robust surface cooling (~ 1.0–1.5 °C), suppressing the African monsoon (deficit of > 1 mm d−1 over East Africa) and agriculturally vital Nile summer flooding. Our result supports the hypothesized relation between volcanic eruptions, hydroclimatic shocks, and societal impacts.
Frank Arthur, Didier M. Roche, Ralph Fyfe, Aurélien Quiquet, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past, 19, 87–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper simulates transcient Holocene climate in Europe by applying an interactive downscaling to the standard version of the iLOVECLIM model. The results show that downscaling presents a higher spatial variability in better agreement with proxy-based reconstructions as compared to the standard model, particularly in the Alps, the Scandes, and the Mediterranean. Our downscaling scheme is numerically cheap, which can perform kilometric multi-millennial simulations suitable for future studies.
Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
Clim. Past, 18, 2401–2420, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2401-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the hydrological changes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the mid-Holocene (MH; a period with warmer summers than today) will help us understand expected future changes. This study analyses the hydroclimates over the headwater regions of three major rivers originating on the TP using dynamically downscaled climate simulations. Model–data comparisons show that the dynamic downscaling significantly improves both the present-day and MH regional climate simulations of the TP.
Huan Li, Hans Renssen, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2303–2319, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2303-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In past warm periods, the Sahara region was covered by vegetation. In this paper we study transitions from this
greenstate to the desert state we find today. For this purpose, we have used a global climate model coupled to a vegetation model to perform transient simulations. We analyzed the model results to assess the effect of vegetation shifts on the abruptness of the transition. We find that the vegetation feedback was more efficient during the last interglacial than during the Holocene.
Nicky M. Wright, Claire E. Krause, Steven J. Phipps, Ghyslaine Boschat, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 18, 1509–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a major mode of climate variability. Proxy-based SAM reconstructions show changes that last millennium climate simulations do not reproduce. We test the SAM's sensitivity to solar forcing using simulations with a range of solar values and transient last millennium simulations with large-amplitude solar variations. We find that solar forcing can alter the SAM and that strong solar forcing transient simulations better match proxy-based reconstructions.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1035–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Palaeoenvironmental records only provide a fragmentary picture of the lake and wetland extent in North Africa during the mid-Holocene. Therefore, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes caused by an estimated small and maximum lake extent and a maximum wetland extent. Results show a particularly strong monsoon precipitation response to lakes and wetlands over the Western Sahara and an increased monsoon precipitation when replacing lakes with vegetated wetlands.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
Clim. Past, 17, 1645–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional climate simulations were constructed to more accurately capture regional features of the South and Southeast Asian monsoon during the mid-Holocene. Comparison with proxies shows that our high-resolution simulations outperform those with the coarser global model in reproducing the monsoon rainfall anomalies. Incorporating the Green Sahara climate conditions over northern Africa into our simulations further strengthens the monsoon precipitation and leads to better agreement with proxies.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Pascale Braconnot, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Anne Cozic, Masa Kageyama, Adriana Sima, Olivier Marti, and Jean-Yves Peterschmitt
Clim. Past, 17, 1091–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how mid-Holocene dust reduction affects the Earth’s energetics from a suite of climate simulations. Our analyses confirm the peculiar role of the dust radiative effect over bright surfaces such as African deserts. We highlight a strong dependence on the dust pattern. The relative dust forcing between West Africa and the Middle East impacts the relative response of Indian and African monsoons and between the western tropical Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional circulation.
Gabriele Messori and Davide Faranda
Clim. Past, 17, 545–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The palaeoclimate community must both analyse large amounts of model data and compare very different climates. Here, we present a seemingly very abstract analysis approach that may be fruitfully applied to palaeoclimate numerical simulations. This approach characterises the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics and is thus suited to face the above challenges.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Charles J. R. Williams, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Emilie Capron, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Joy S. Singarayer, Louise C. Sime, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 16, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from two simulations using the latest version of the UK's climate model, the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) and Last Interglacial (127 000 years ago). The simulations reproduce temperatures consistent with the pattern of incoming radiation. Model–data comparisons indicate that some regions (and some seasons) produce better matches to the data than others.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Anina Gilgen, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kühn, and Ulrike Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1885–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAM-SALSA, the effect of humans on European climate in the Roman Empire was quantified. Both land use and novel estimates of anthropogenic aerosol emissions were considered. We conducted simulations with fixed sea-surface temperatures to gain a first impression about the anthropogenic impact. While land use effects induced a regional warming for one of the reconstructions, aerosol emissions led to a cooling associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.
Pascale Braconnot, Dan Zhu, Olivier Marti, and Jérôme Servonnat
Clim. Past, 15, 997–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study discusses a simulation of the last 6000 years realized with a climate model in which the vegetation and carbon cycle are fully interactive. The long-term southward shift in Northern Hemisphere tree line and Afro-Asian monsoon rain are reproduced. The results show substantial change in tree composition with time over Eurasia and the role of trace gases in the recent past. They highlight the limitations due to model setup and multiple preindustrial vegetation states.
Mi Yan and Jian Liu
Clim. Past, 15, 265–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, 2019
Liang Ning, Jian Liu, Raymond S. Bradley, and Mi Yan
Clim. Past, 15, 41–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019, 2019
Andrea Klus, Matthias Prange, Vidya Varma, Louis Bruno Tremblay, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 14, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous proxy records from the northern North Atlantic suggest substantial climate variability including the occurrence of multi-decadal-to-centennial cold events during the Holocene. We analyzed two abrupt cold events in a Holocene simulation using a comprehensive climate model. It is shown that the events were ultimately triggered by prolonged phases of positive North Atlantic Oscillation causing changes in ocean circulation followed by severe cooling, freshening, and expansion of sea ice.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, and Christian Reick
Clim. Past, 14, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We find a rapid increase in simulated dust deposition between 6 and
4 ka BP that is fairly consistent with an abrupt change in dust deposition that was observed in marine sediment records at around 5 ka BP. This rapid change is caused by a rapid increase in simulated dust emissions in the western Sahara due to a fast decline in vegetation cover and a locally strong reduction of lake area. Our study identifies spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the transition of the North African landscape.
Duncan Ackerley, Jessica Reeves, Cameron Barr, Helen Bostock, Kathryn Fitzsimmons, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Chris Gouramanis, Helen McGregor, Scott Mooney, Steven J. Phipps, John Tibby, and Jonathan Tyler
Clim. Past, 13, 1661–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A selection of climate models have been used to simulate both pre-industrial (1750 CE) and mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) conditions. This study presents an assessment of the temperature, rainfall and flow over Australasia from those climate models. The model data are compared with available proxy data reconstructions (e.g. tree rings) for 6000 years ago to identify whether the models are reliable. Places where there is both agreement and conflict are highlighted and investigated further.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Jian Ni, Xianyong Cao, Yongbo Wang, Nils Fischer, Madlene Pfeiffer, Liya Jin, Vyacheslav Khon, Sebastian Wagner, Kerstin Haberkorn, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 13, 107–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The vegetation distribution in eastern Asia is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient climate simulations.
Xinyu Wen, Zhengyu Liu, Zhongxiao Chen, Esther Brady, David Noone, Qingzhao Zhu, and Jian Guan
Clim. Past, 12, 2077–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we challenge the usefulness of temperature effect and amount effect, the basic assumptions in past climate reconstruction using a stable water isotope proxy, in East Asia on multiple timescales. By modeling several time slices in the past 22 000 years using an isotope-enabled general circulation model, we suggest great caution when interpreting δ18O records in this area as indicators of surface temperature and/or local monsoonal precipitation, especially on a millennial timescale.
Emmanuele Russo and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 12, 1645–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we use a RCM for three different goals.
Proposing a model configuration suitable for paleoclimate studies; evaluating the added value of a regional climate model for paleoclimate studies; investigating temperature evolution of the European continent during mid-to-late Holocene.
Results suggest that the RCM seems to produce results in better agreement with reconstructions than its driving GCM. Simulated temperature evolution seems to be too sensitive to changes in insolation.
Yurui Zhang, Hans Renssen, and Heikki Seppä
Clim. Past, 12, 1119–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how forcings contributed to climate change during the early Holocene that marked the final transition to the warm and stable stage. Our results indicate that 1) temperature at the Holocene onset was lower than in the preindustrial over the northern extratropics with the exception in Alaska, and the magnitude of this cooling varies regionally as a response to varying climate forcings and diverse mechanisms, and 2) the rate of the early Holocene warming was also spatially heterogeneous.
M. Clare Smith, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, Jed O. Kaplan, and Nicholas P. Branch
Clim. Past, 12, 923–941, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We used climate modelling to estimate the biogeophysical impacts of agriculture on the climate over the last 8000 years of the Holocene. Our results show statistically significant surface temperature changes (mainly cooling) from as early as 7000 BP in the JJA season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3000 BP. The changes were greatest in the areas of land use change but were also seen in other areas. Precipitation was also affected, particularly in Europe, India, and the ITCZ region.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, Christian Reick, and Tanja Stanelle
Clim. Past, 12, 1009–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate for the first time the direct link between dust accumulation in marine sediment cores and Saharan land surface by simulating the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial dust cycle as a function of Saharan land surface cover and atmosphere-ocean conditions using the coupled atmosphere-aerosol model ECHAM6-HAM2.1. Mid-Holocene surface characteristics, including vegetation cover and lake surface area, are derived from proxy data and simulations.
S. C. Lewis and A. N. LeGrande
Clim. Past, 11, 1347–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, 2015
P. J. Bartlein, M. E. Edwards, S. W. Hostetler, S. L. Shafer, P. M. Anderson, L. B. Brubaker, and A. V. Lozhkin
Clim. Past, 11, 1197–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The ongoing warming of the Arctic is producing changes in vegetation and hydrology that, coupled with rising sea level, could mediate global changes. We explored this possibility using regional climate model simulations of a past interval of warming in Beringia and found that the regional-scale changes do strongly mediate the responses to global changes, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in climate change.
F. J. Davies, H. Renssen, M. Blaschek, and F. Muschitiello
Clim. Past, 11, 571–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, 2015
J. R. Alder and S. W. Hostetler
Clim. Past, 11, 449–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, 2015
G.-S. Chen, Z. Liu, and J. E. Kutzbach
Clim. Past, 10, 1269–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
A. Perez-Sanz, G. Li, P. González-Sampériz, and S. P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 10, 551–568, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, 2014
Z. Tian and D. Jiang
Clim. Past, 9, 2153–2171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, 2013
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1667–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, 2013
R. O'ishi and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 9, 1571–1587, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, 2013
R. Ohgaito, T. Sueyoshi, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Hajima, S. Watanabe, H.-J. Kim, A. Yamamoto, and M. Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 9, 1519–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
M. Berger, J. Brandefelt, and J. Nilsson
Clim. Past, 9, 969–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-969-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-969-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Abram, N. J., Gagan, M. K., Liu, Z., Hantoro, W. S., McCulloch, M. T., and
Suwargadi, B. W.: Seasonal characteristics of the Indian Ocean Dipole during
the Holocene epoch, Nature, 445, 299–302, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature05477, 2007. a, b, c
Abram, N. J., Wright, N. M., Ellis, B., Dixon, B. C., Wurtzel, J. B., England,
M. H., Ummenhofer, C. C., Philibosian, B., Cahyarini, S. Y., Yu, T.-L., Shen,
C.-C., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., and Heslop, D.: Coupling of Indo-Pacific
climate variability over the last millennium, Nature, 579, 385–392,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2084-4, 2020b. a, b, c
Ashok, K., Guan, Z., and Yamagata, T.: Impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the
relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 28, 4499–4502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013294, 2001. a
Ashok, K., Guan, Z., and Yamagata, T.: A look at the relationship between the
ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole, J. Meteorol. Soc.
Jpn. Ser. II, 81, 41–56, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.81.41, 2003. a, b
Bartlein, P. J. and Shafer, S. L.: Paleo calendar-effect adjustments in time-slice and transient climate-model simulations (PaleoCalAdjust v1.0): impact and strategies for data analysis, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3889–3913, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3889-2019, 2019. a
Behera, S. K. and Yamagata, T.: Subtropical SST dipole events in the southern
Indian Ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 327–330,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL011451, 2001. a
Behera, S. K., Luo, J. J., Masson, S., Rao, S. A., Sakuma, H., and Yamagata,
T.: A CGCM study on the interaction between IOD and ENSO, J.
Climate, 19, 1688–1705, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3797.1, 2006. a
Berger, A. and Loutre, M.-F.: Insolation values for the climate of the last 10
million years, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 10, 297–317,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0277-3791(91)90033-q, 1991. a
Braconnot, P., Otto-Bliesner, B., Harrison, S., Joussaume, S., Peterchmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Crucifix, M., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, Th., Hewitt, C. D., Kageyama, M., Kitoh, A., Laîné, A., Loutre, M.-F., Marti, O., Merkel, U., Ramstein, G., Valdes, P., Weber, S. L., Yu, Y., and Zhao, Y.: Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum – Part 1: experiments and large-scale features, Clim. Past, 3, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-261-2007, 2007. a
Brierley, C.: pmip4/IndianOceanVariability: v1.1 (v1.1), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7636502, 2023. a
Brierley, C. and Wainer, I.: Inter-annual variability in the tropical Atlantic from the Last Glacial Maximum into future climate projections simulated by CMIP5/PMIP3, Clim. Past, 14, 1377–1390, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1377-2018, 2018. a
Brierley, C. M., Zhao, A., Harrison, S. P., Braconnot, P., Williams, C. J. R., Thornalley, D. J. R., Shi, X., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Ohgaito, R., Kaufman, D. S., Kageyama, M., Hargreaves, J. C., Erb, M. P., Emile-Geay, J., D'Agostino, R., Chandan, D., Carré, M., Bartlein, P. J., Zheng, W., Zhang, Z., Zhang, Q., Yang, H., Volodin, E. M., Tomas, R. A., Routson, C., Peltier, W. R., Otto-Bliesner, B., Morozova, P. A., McKay, N. P., Lohmann, G., Legrande, A. N., Guo, C., Cao, J., Brady, E., Annan, J. D., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations, Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Brown, J., Lynch, A. H., and Marshall, A. G.: Variability of the Indian Ocean
Dipole in coupled model paleoclimate simulations, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 114, D11105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010346, 2009. a, b
Brown, J. R., Brierley, C. M., An, S.-I., Guarino, M.-V., Stevenson, S., Williams, C. J. R., Zhang, Q., Zhao, A., Abe-Ouchi, A., Braconnot, P., Brady, E. C., Chandan, D., D'Agostino, R., Guo, C., LeGrande, A. N., Lohmann, G., Morozova, P. A., Ohgaito, R., O'ishi, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Peltier, W. R., Shi, X., Sime, L., Volodin, E. M., Zhang, Z., and Zheng, W.: Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models, Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Cai, W., Santoso, A., Wang, G., Weller, E., Wu, L., Ashok, K., Masumoto, Y.,
and Yamagata, T.: Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events
due to greenhouse warming, Nature, 510, 254–258, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13327,
2014. a
Cai, W., Santoso, A., Collins, M., Dewitte, B., Karamperidou, C., Kug, J.-S., Lengaigne, M., McPhaden, M. J., Stuecker, M. F., Taschetto, A. S., Timmermann, A., Wu, L., Yeh, S.-W., Wang, G., Ng, B., Jia, F., Yang, Y., Ying, J., Zheng, X.-T., Bayr, T., Brown, J. R., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K. M., Gan, B., Geng, T., Ham, Y.-G., Jin, F.-F., Jo, H.-S., Li, X., Lin, X., McGregor, S., Park, J.-H., Stein, K., Yang, K., Zhang, L., and Zhong, W.:
Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate, Nature
Reviews Earth & Environment, 2, 628–644, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00199-z,
2021a. a
Cai, W., Yang, K., Wu, L., Huang, G., Santoso, A., Ng, B., Wang, G., and
Yamagata, T.: Opposite response of strong and moderate positive Indian Ocean
Dipole to global warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 27–32,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00943-1, 2021b. a, b, c
Cassou, C., Cherchi, A., Kosaka, Y., Corti, S., Engelbrecht, F., Lee, J.-Y.,
Maycock, A., McGregor, S., Morgenstern, O., Nnamchi, H. C., Rivera, J., Trewin, B.,
and Phillips, A.: Modes of Variability, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical
Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by:
Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger,
S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K.,
Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O.,
Yu, R., and Zhou, B., book section Annex IV, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_AnnexIV.pdf (last access: 13 February 2023),
2021. a, b
Cherchi, A., Terray, P., Ratna, S. B., Sankar, S., Sooraj, K., and Behera, S.:
Indian ocean dipole influence on Indian summer monsoon and ENSO: a
review, Indian Summer Monsoon Variability, El-Nino Teleconnections and Beyond, 157–182,
https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-822402-1.00011-9, 2021. a
Collins, M., An, S. I., Cai, W. J., Ganachaud, A., Guilyardi, E., Jin, F. F., Jochum, M., Lengaigne, M., Power, S., Timmermann, A., Vecchi, G., and Wittenberg, A.: The impact of
global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño, Nat.
Geosci., 3, 391–397, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo868, 2010. a
Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J.-L., Fichefet, T.,
Friedlingstein, P., Gao, X., Gutowski, W. J., Johns, T., Krinner, G.,
Shongwe, M., Tebaldi, C., Weaver, A., and Wehner, M.: Long-term climate
change: projections, commitments and irreversibility, in: Climate Change
2013-The Physical Science Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by:
Stocker, T., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S., Boschung, J.,
Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P., Cambridge
University Press, 1029–1136, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.024, 2013. a
Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Matsui, N., Allan, R. J.,
Yin, X., Gleason, B. E., Vose, R. S., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P.,
Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Crouthamel, R. I., Grant, A. N., Groisman,
P. Y., Jones, P. D., Kruk, M. C., Kruger, A. C., Marshall, G. J., Maugeri,
M., Mok, H. Y., Nordli, Ø., Ross, T. F., Trigo, R. M., Wang, X. L.,
Woodruff, S. D., and Worley, S. J.: The twentieth century reanalysis project,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1–28,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.776, 2011. a, b, c
Cowan, T., Cai, W., Ng, B., and England, M.: The response of the Indian Ocean
dipole asymmetry to anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases, J.
Climate, 28, 2564–2583, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00661.1, 2015. a, b
D'Agostino, R., Bader, J., Bordoni, S., Ferreira, D., and Jungclaus, J.: Northern Hemisphere Monsoon Response to Mid-Holocene Orbital Forcing and Greenhouse Gas-Induced Global Warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 1591–1601, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081589, 2019. a
Di Nezio, P. N., Timmermann, A., Tierney, J. E., Jin, F.-F., Otto-Bliesner, B.,
Rosenbloom, N., Mapes, B., Neale, R., Ivanovic, R. F., and Montenegro, A.:
The climate response of the Indo-Pacific warm pool to glacial sea level,
Paleoceanography, 31, 866–894, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015PA002890, 2016. a, b
DiNezio, P. N., Tierney, J. E., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Timmermann, A.,
Bhattacharya, T., Rosenbloom, N., and Brady, E.: Glacial changes in tropical
climate amplified by the Indian Ocean, Science Advances, 4, eaat9658,
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat9658, 2018. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016a. a
Eyring, V., Righi, M., Lauer, A., Evaldsson, M., Wenzel, S., Jones, C., Anav, A., Andrews, O., Cionni, I., Davin, E. L., Deser, C., Ehbrecht, C., Friedlingstein, P., Gleckler, P., Gottschaldt, K.-D., Hagemann, S., Juckes, M., Kindermann, S., Krasting, J., Kunert, D., Levine, R., Loew, A., Mäkelä, J., Martin, G., Mason, E., Phillips, A. S., Read, S., Rio, C., Roehrig, R., Senftleben, D., Sterl, A., van Ulft, L. H., Walton, J., Wang, S., and Williams, K. D.: ESMValTool (v1.0) – a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1747–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, 2016b. a
Eyring, V., Gillett, N. P., Achuta Rao, K. M., Barimalala, R.,
Barreiro Parrillo, M., Bellouin, N., Cassou, C., Durack, P. J., Kosaka, Y.,
McGregor, S., Min, S., Morgenstern, O., and Sun, Y.: Human Influence on the
Climate System, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V.,
Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen,
Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E.,
Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and
Zhou, B., chap. 3, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_03.pdf (last access: 13 February 2023),
2021. a
Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S. C., Collins, W.,
Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, V., Forest, C., Gleckler, P.,
Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., Reason, C., Rummukainen, M.,
AchutaRao, K., Anav, A., Andrews, T., Baehr, J., Bindoff, N. L.,
Bodas-Salcedo, A., Catto, J., Chambers, D., Chang, P., Dai, A., Deser, C.,
Doblas-Reyes, F., Durack, P. J., Eby, M., de Elia, R., Fichefet, T., Forster,
P., Frame, D., Fyfe, J., Gbobaniyi, E., Gillett, N., González-Rouco, J. F.,
Goodess, C., Griffies, S., Hall, A., Harrison, S., Hense, A., Hunke, E.,
Ilyina, T., Ivanova, D., Johnson, G., Kageyama, M., Kharin, V., Klein, S. A.,
Knight, J., Knutti, R., Landerer, F., Lee, T., Li, H., Mahowald, N., Mears,
C., Meehl, G., Morice, C., Msadek, R., Myhre, G., Neelin, J. D., Painter, J.,
Pavlova, T., Perlwitz, J., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Räisänen, J., Rauser, F.,
Reid, J., Rodwell, M., Santer, B., Scaife, A. A., Schulz, J., Scinocca, J.,
Sexton, D., Shindell, D., Shiogama, H., Sillmann, J., Simmons, A., Sperber,
K., Stephenson, D., Stevens, B., Stott, P., Sutton, R., Thorne, P. W., van
Oldenborgh, G. J., Vecchi, G., Webb, M., Williams, K., Woollings, T., Xie,
S.-P., and Zhang, J.: Evaluation of climate models, in: Climate change 2013:
the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by:
Stocker, T., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S., Boschung, J.,
Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P., 741–866, Cambridge
University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.020, 2013. a
Ford, H. L., Ravelo, A. C., and Polissar, P. J.: Reduced El
Niño–Southern Oscillation during the Last Glacial Maximum, Science,
347, 255–258, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1258437, 2015. a
Gregory, J. M., Ingram, W. J., Palmer, M. A., Jones, G. S., Stott, P. A., Thorpe, R. B., Lowe, J. A., Johns, T. C., and Williams, K. D.: A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L03205,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gl018747, 2004. a
Gulev, S. K., Thorne, P. W., Ahn, J., Dentener, F. J., Domingues, C. M.,
Gerland, S., Gong, D., Kaufman, D. S., Nnamchi, H. C., Quaas, J., Rivera,
J. A., Sathyendranath, S., Smith, S. L., Trewin, B., von Shuckmann, K., and
Vose, R. S.: Changing State of the Climate System, in: Climate Change 2021:
The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by:
Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger,
S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K.,
Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O.,
Yu, R., and Zhou, B., chap. 2, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_02.pdf (last access: 13 February 2023),
2021. a, b
Guo, F., Liu, Q., Yang, J., and Fan, L.: Three types of Indian Ocean basin
modes, Clim. Dynam., 51, 4357–4370, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3676-z,
2018. a
Halder, S., Parekh, A., Chowdary, J. S., Gnanaseelan, C., and Kulkarni, A.:
Assessment of CMIP6 models' skill for tropical Indian Ocean sea surface
temperature variability, Int. J. Climatol., 41,
2568–2588, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6975, 2021. a
Heede, U. K., Fedorov, A. V., and Burls, N. J.: A stronger versus weaker
Walker: understanding model differences in fast and slow tropical Pacific
responses to global warming, Clim. Dynam., 57, 2505–2522,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05818-5, 2021. a
Hrudya, P., Varikoden, H., and Vishnu, R.: A review on the Indian summer
monsoon rainfall, variability and its association with ENSO and IOD,
Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 133, 1–14,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00734-5, 2021. a
Hu, K., Huang, G., Zheng, X.-T., Xie, S.-P., Qu, X., Du, Y., and Liu, L.:
Interdecadal variations in ENSO influences on northwest Pacific–East
Asian early summertime climate simulated in CMIP5 models, J.
Climate, 27, 5982–5998, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00268.1, 2014. a, b
Huang, G., Hu, K., Qu, X., Tao, W., Yao, S., Zhao, G., and Jiang, W.: A review
about Indian Ocean basin mode and its impacts on East Asian summer
climate, Chin. J. Atmos. Sci, 40, 121–130,
https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1505.15143, 2016. a, b, c, d
Huang, Z., Zhang, W., Liu, C., and Stuecker, M. F.: Extreme Indian Ocean dipole
events associated with El Niño and Madden–Julian oscillation, Clim.
Dynam., 59, 1953–1968,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06190-8, 2022. a
Hui, C. and Zheng, X.-T.: Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global
warming: the role of internal variability, Clim. Dynam., 51, 3597–3611,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4098-2, 2018. a, b
Iwakiri, T. and Watanabe, M.: Strengthening of the Indian Ocean Dipole with
increasing seasonal cycle in the mid-Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
46, 8320–8328, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083088, 2019. a, b
Jones, T. R., Roberts, W. H., Steig, E. J., Cuffey, K., Markle, B., and White,
J.: Southern Hemisphere climate variability forced by Northern Hemisphere
ice-sheet topography, Nature, 554, 351–355, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature24669, 2018. a, b
Kageyama, M., Albani, S., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Hopcroft, P. O., Ivanovic, R. F., Lambert, F., Marti, O., Peltier, W. R., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Roche, D. M., Tarasov, L., Zhang, X., Brady, E. C., Haywood, A. M., LeGrande, A. N., Lunt, D. J., Mahowald, N. M., Mikolajewicz, U., Nisancioglu, K. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Renssen, H., Tomas, R. A., Zhang, Q., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bartlein, P. J., Cao, J., Li, Q., Lohmann, G., Ohgaito, R., Shi, X., Volodin, E., Yoshida, K., Zhang, X., and Zheng, W.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 4: Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017. a, b, c
Kageyama, M., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Haywood, A. M., Jungclaus, J. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albani, S., Bartlein, P. J., Brierley, C., Crucifix, M., Dolan, A., Fernandez-Donado, L., Fischer, H., Hopcroft, P. O., Ivanovic, R. F., Lambert, F., Lunt, D. J., Mahowald, N. M., Peltier, W. R., Phipps, S. J., Roche, D. M., Schmidt, G. A., Tarasov, L., Valdes, P. J., Zhang, Q., and Zhou, T.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018. a, b
Kageyama, M., Harrison, S. P., Kapsch, M.-L., Lofverstrom, M., Lora, J. M., Mikolajewicz, U., Sherriff-Tadano, S., Vadsaria, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bouttes, N., Chandan, D., Gregoire, L. J., Ivanovic, R. F., Izumi, K., LeGrande, A. N., Lhardy, F., Lohmann, G., Morozova, P. A., Ohgaito, R., Paul, A., Peltier, W. R., Poulsen, C. J., Quiquet, A., Roche, D. M., Shi, X., Tierney, J. E., Valdes, P. J., Volodin, E., and Zhu, J.: The PMIP4 Last Glacial Maximum experiments: preliminary results and comparison with the PMIP3 simulations, Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021. a, b
Kajtar, J. B., Santoso, A., England, M. H., and Cai, W.: Tropical climate
variability: interactions across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans,
Clim. Dynam., 48, 2173–2190, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3199-z, 2017. a, b, c
Leduc, G., Vidal, L., Cartapanis, O., and Bard, E.: Modes of eastern equatorial
Pacific thermocline variability: Implications for ENSO dynamics over the
last glacial period, Paleoceanography, 24, PA3202,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008PA001701, 2009. a
Lee, S.-Y., Chiang, J. C., and Chang, P.: Tropical Pacific response to
continental ice sheet topography, Clim. Dynam., 44, 2429–2446,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2162-0, 2015. a
Li, Z., Lin, X., and Cai, W.: Realism of modelled Indian summer monsoon
correlation with the tropical Indo-Pacific affects projected monsoon
changes, Sci. Rep.-UK, 7, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05225-z, 2017. a, b
Liu, L., Xie, S.-P., Zheng, X.-T., Li, T., Du, Y., Huang, G., and Yu, W.-D.:
Indian Ocean variability in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: the zonal
dipole mode, Clim. Dynam., 43, 1715–1730,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2000-9, 2014. a, b
Liu, S., Yuan, C., jia Luo, J., Ma, X., Zhou, X., and Yamagata, T.: Weakening
of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the mid-Holocene due to the mean oceanic
climatology change, arXiv [preprint], https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VS9H, 2023. a, b
Liu, X., Liu, Z., Clemens, S., Prell, W., and Kutzbach, J.: A coupled model
study of glacial Asian monsoon variability and Indian ocean dipole,
J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 85, 1–10,
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.85.1, 2007. a, b
Lu, Z., Liu, Z., and Zhu, J.: Abrupt intensification of ENSO forced by
deglacial ice-sheet retreat in CCSM3, Clim. Dynam., 46, 1877–1891,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2681-3, 2016. a
Marathe, S., Terray, P., and Karumuri, A.: Tropical Indian Ocean and ENSO
relationships in a changed climate, Clim. Dynam., 56, 3255–3276,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05641-y, 2021. a, b, c
McKenna, S., Santoso, A., Gupta, A. S., Taschetto, A. S., and Cai, W.: Indian
Ocean Dipole in CMIP5 and CMIP6: characteristics, biases, and links to
ENSO, Sci. Rep.-UK, 10, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68268-9,
2020. a, b, c
Ng, B., Cai, W., and Walsh, K.: The role of the SST-thermocline relationship in
Indian Ocean Dipole skewness and its response to global warming, Sci.
Rep.-UK, 4, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep06034, 2014. a
Ogata, T., Xie, S.-P., Lan, J., and Zheng, X.: Importance of ocean dynamics for
the skewness of the Indian Ocean dipole mode, J. Climate, 26,
2145–2159, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00615.1, 2013. a
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Lunt, D. J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albani, S., Bartlein, P. J., Capron, E., Carlson, A. E., Dutton, A., Fischer, H., Goelzer, H., Govin, A., Haywood, A., Joos, F., LeGrande, A. N., Lipscomb, W. H., Lohmann, G., Mahowald, N., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Pausata, F. S. R., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Phipps, S. J., Renssen, H., and Zhang, Q.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 2: Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Zhao, A., Brierley, C. M., Axford, Y., Capron, E., Govin, A., Hoffman, J. S., Isaacs, E., Kageyama, M., Scussolini, P., Tzedakis, P. C., Williams, C. J. R., Wolff, E., Abe-Ouchi, A., Braconnot, P., Ramos Buarque, S., Cao, J., de Vernal, A., Guarino, M. V., Guo, C., LeGrande, A. N., Lohmann, G., Meissner, K. J., Menviel, L., Morozova, P. A., Nisancioglu, K. H., O'ishi, R., Salas y Mélia, D., Shi, X., Sicard, M., Sime, L., Stepanek, C., Tomas, R., Volodin, E., Yeung, N. K. H., Zhang, Q., Zhang, Z., and Zheng, W.: Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4), Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021. a, b, c
Perez-Sanz, A., Li, G., González-Sampériz, P., and Harrison, S. P.: Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations, Clim. Past, 10, 551–568, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, 2014. a
Phillips, A. S., Deser, C., and Fasullo, J.: Evaluating modes of variability in
climate models, Eos T. Am. Geophys. Un., 95, 453–455,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EO490002, 2014. a
Power, S. B. and Delage, F. P.: El Niño–Southern Oscillation and
associated climatic conditions around the world during the latter half of the
twenty-first century, J. Climate, 31, 6189–6207,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0138.1, 2018. a
Qu, X. and Huang, G.: Impacts of tropical Indian Ocean SST on the meridional
displacement of East Asian jet in boreal summer, Int. J.
Climatol., 32, 2073–2080, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2378, 2012. a
Rayner, N., Parker, D. E., Horton, E., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V.,
Rowell, D., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface
temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late
nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4407,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003. a, b
Rehfeld, K., Hébert, R., Lora, J. M., Lofverstrom, M., and Brierley, C. M.: Variability of surface climate in simulations of past and future, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 447–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020, 2020. a, b
Saji, N., Goswami, B. N., Vinayachandran, P., and Yamagata, T.: A dipole mode
in the tropical Indian Ocean, Nature, 401, 360–363, https://doi.org/10.1038/43854,
1999. a, b, c, d
Schott, F. A., Xie, S.-P., and McCreary Jr, J. P.: Indian Ocean circulation and
climate variability, Rev. Geophys., 47, RG1002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007RG000245,
2009. a, b, c
Slivinski, L. C., Gilbert P. Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Giese, B., S., McColl, C., Allan, R., Yin, X., Vose, R., Titchner, H., Kennedy, J., Spencer, L. J., Ashcroft, L., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Camuffo, D., Cornes, R., Cram, T. A., Crouthamel, R., Domínguez-Castro, F., Freeman, J. E., Gergis, J., Hawkins, E., Philip D. Jones, P. D., Jourdain, S., Kaplan, A., Kubota, H., Le Blancq, F., Lee, T.-C., Lorrey, A., Luterbacher, J., Maugeri, M., Mock, C. J., Moore, G. W. K., Przybylak, R., Pudmenzky, C., Reason, C., Slonosky, V. C., Smith, C. A., Tinz, B., Trewin, B., Valente, M. A., Wang, X. L., Wilkinson, C., Wood, K., and Wyszyński, P.:
Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: Improvements for version 3 of
the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system, Q. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 145, 2876–2908, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598, 2019. a, b
Slivinski, L., Compo, G., Whitaker, J., and Sardeshmukh, P.: NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Reanalysis (V3), Physical Sciences Laboratory, https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV3.html, last access: 13 February 2023. a
Stevenson, S., Wittenberg, A. T., Fasullo, J., Coats, S., and Otto-Bliesner,
B.: Understanding diverse model projections of future extreme El Niño,
J. Climate, 34, 449–464, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0969.1, 2021. a
Stuecker, M. F., Timmermann, A., Jin, F.-F., Chikamoto, Y., Zhang, W.,
Wittenberg, A. T., Widiasih, E., and Zhao, S.: Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean
dipole phase relationships, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 2481–2492,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072308, 2017. a, b
Tao, W., Huang, G., Hu, K., Qu, X., Wen, G., and Gong, H.: Interdecadal
modulation of ENSO teleconnections to the Indian Ocean Basin Mode and their
relationship under global warming in CMIP5 models, Int. J.
Climatol., 35, 391–407, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3987, 2015. a, b, c, d
Tao, W., Huang, G., Hu, K., Gong, H., Wen, G., and Liu, L.: A study of biases
in simulation of the Indian Ocean basin mode and its capacitor effect in
CMIP3/CMIP5 models, Clim. Dynam., 46, 205–226,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2579-0, 2016. a, b, c
Tierney, J. E., Zhu, J., King, J., Malevich, S. B., Hakim, G. J., and Poulsen,
C. J.: Glacial cooling and climate sensitivity revisited, Nature, 584,
569–573, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2617-x, 2020. a, b
Trenberth, K. E.: The definition of El Niño, B. Am.
Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2771–2778,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a
Ullman, D. J., LeGrande, A. N., Carlson, A. E., Anslow, F. S., and Licciardi, J. M.: Assessing the impact of Laurentide Ice Sheet topography on glacial climate, Clim. Past, 10, 487–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-487-2014, 2014. a
Vecchi, G. A. and Soden, B. J.: Global warming and the weakening of the
tropical circulation, J. Climate, 20, 4316–4340,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4258.1, 2007. a
Wainwright, C. M., Finney, D. L., Kilavi, M., Black, E., and Marsham, J. H.:
Extreme rainfall in East Africa, October 2019–January 2020 and context
under future climate change, Weather, 76, 26–31,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3824, 2021. a
Wang, C.: Three-ocean interactions and climate variability: a review and
perspective, Clim. Dynam., 53, 5119–5136,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04930-x, 2019. a, b
Wang, G. and Cai, W.: Two-year consecutive concurrences of positive Indian
Ocean Dipole and Central Pacific El Niño preconditioned the 2019/2020
Australian “black summer” bushfires, Geosci. Lett., 7, 1–9,
https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-020-00168-2, 2020. a, b
Wang, G., Cai, W., and Santoso, A.: Simulated thermocline tilt over the
tropical Indian Ocean and its influence on future sea surface temperature
variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091902,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091902, 2021. a
Wang, H., Murtugudde, R., and Kumar, A.: Evolution of Indian Ocean dipole and
its forcing mechanisms in the absence of ENSO, Clim. Dynam., 47,
2481–2500, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-2977-y, 2016. a
Waskom, M. L.: Seaborn: statistical data visualization, Journal of Open Source Software, 6, 3021, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.03021, 2021. a
Webster, P. J., Moore, A. M., Loschnigg, J. P., and Leben, R. R.: Coupled
ocean–atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98, Nature,
401, 356–360, https://doi.org/10.1038/43848, 1999. a, b
Wyrtki, K.: Some thoughts about the west Pacific warm pool, in: Proceedings
of the western pacific international meeting and workshop on TOGA COARE,
ORSTOM/Nouméa New Caledonia, 99–109, https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/doc34-08/30199.pdf
(last access: 13 February 2023), 1989. a
Xu, X., Wang, L., and Yu, W.: The unique mean seasonal cycle in the Indian
Ocean anchors its various air-sea coupled modes across the basin, Sci.
Rep.-UK, 11, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84936-w, 2021. a, b, c, d
Yeung, N. K.-H., Menviel, L., Meissner, K. J., Taschetto, A. S., Ziehn, T., and Chamberlain, M.: Land–sea temperature contrasts at the Last Interglacial and their impact on the hydrological cycle, Clim. Past, 17, 869–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-869-2021, 2021. a
Zelinka, M. D., Myers, T. A., McCoy, D. T., Po-Chedley, S., Caldwell, P. M., Ceppi, P., Klein, S. A., and Taylor, K. E.: Causes of higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085782, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782, 2020. a, b
Zhang, L., Wang, G., Newman, M., and Han, W.: Interannual to decadal
variability of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature: Pacific
influence versus local internal variability, J. Climate, 34,
2669–2684, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0807.1, 2021. a
Zhang, Y., Li, J., Zhao, S., Zheng, F., Feng, J., Li, Y., and Xu, Y.: Indian
Ocean tripole mode and its associated atmospheric and oceanic processes,
Clim. Dynam., 55, 1367–1383, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05331-1, 2020. a
Zhao, A., Brierley, C. M., Jiang, Z., Eyles, R., Oyarzún, D., and Gomez-Dans, J.: Analysing the PMIP4-CMIP6 collection: a workflow and tool (pmip_p2fvar_analyzer v1), Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2475–2488, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2475-2022, 2022.
a, b, c
Zheng, X.-T.: Indo-pacific climate modes in warming climate: consensus and
uncertainty across model projections, Current Climate Change Reports, 5,
308–321, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00152-9, 2019. a
Zheng, X.-T., Xie, S.-P., and Liu, Q.: Response of the Indian Ocean basin
mode and its capacitor effect to global warming, J. Climate, 24,
6146–6164, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4169.1, 2011. a, b
Zheng, X.-T., Xie, S.-P., Du, Y., Liu, L., Huang, G., and Liu, Q.: Indian Ocean
dipole response to global warming in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble, J.
Climate, 26, 6067–6080, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00638.1, 2013. a, b, c, d
Zheng, X.-T., Lu, J., and Hui, C.: Response of seasonal phase locking of
Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming, Clim. Dynam., 57, 2737–2751,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05834-5, 2021. a
Ziegler, M., Tuenter, E., and Lourens, L. J.: The precession phase of the
boreal summer monsoon as viewed from the eastern Mediterranean (ODP Site
968), Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 1481–1490,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.03.011, 2010. a
Short summary
Year-to-year variations in the weather conditions over the Indian Ocean have important consequences for the substantial fraction of the Earth's population that live near it. This work looks at how these variations respond to climate change – both past and future. The models rarely agree, suggesting a weak, uncertain response to climate change.
Year-to-year variations in the weather conditions over the Indian Ocean have important...
