Articles | Volume 19, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Oct 2023
Research article |
| 13 Oct 2023
| 13 Oct 2023
A transient coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulation of the past 3 million years
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Busan, Republic of Korea
Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Busan, Republic of Korea
Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea
Invited contribution by Axel Timmermann, recipient of the EGU Milutin Milankovic Medal 2017.
Sun-Seon Lee
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Busan, Republic of Korea
Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea
Matteo Willeit
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Andrey Ganopolski
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Jyoti Jadhav
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Busan, Republic of Korea
Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea
Related authors
Christian Wirths, Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, Hubertus Fischer, Thomas F. Stocker, and Johannes C. R. Sutter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4275, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Ice drilled from deep inside Antarctica reveals how climate changed over hundreds of thousands of years. However, the ice sheet itself rises and sinks over time, which can distort temperatures read from the ice. Using three computer simulations covering the last two million years, we show that drilling sites rose and sank by up to 240 metres and their summits shifted by up to 120 kilometres, and we estimate how this biases climate records, including potential for the oldest ice.
Nitesh Sinha, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Kyoung-Nam Jo, Jasper A. Wassenburg, Daniel M. Cleary, and Kyung-Sook Yun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3348, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
A longstanding conundrum regarding the stable oxygen isotope (δ18O) proxy for hydroclimate in speleothems from the Korean Peninsula, which, unlike records from East Asia (e.g., China), do not exhibit isotopic shifts in response to precession forcing. Using Korean speleothem records spanning several orbital-scale segments of the last ~550,000 years and paleoclimate simulations, the present study proposes a plausible role of the oceanic and continental moisture mixing in suppressing δ18O signals.
Christian Wirths, Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, Hubertus Fischer, Thomas F. Stocker, and Johannes C. R. Sutter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4275, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Ice drilled from deep inside Antarctica reveals how climate changed over hundreds of thousands of years. However, the ice sheet itself rises and sinks over time, which can distort temperatures read from the ice. Using three computer simulations covering the last two million years, we show that drilling sites rose and sank by up to 240 metres and their summits shifted by up to 120 kilometres, and we estimate how this biases climate records, including potential for the oldest ice.
Clemens Schannwell, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Matteo Willeit, Lars Ackermann, Gregor Knorr, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Gerrit Lohmann, Katharina D. Six, Christian Stepanek, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3384, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3384, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We present long-term future projections of the Greenland ice sheet based on three numerical models which all explicitly account for feedbacks between the climate and the Greenland ice sheet. We find that projections vary considerably across the models, particularly beyond 2100. The main reasons for this is the different modelled climate as well as how the modelled climate is translated into snowfall and melt in each of the models.
Nitesh Sinha, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Kyoung-Nam Jo, Jasper A. Wassenburg, Daniel M. Cleary, and Kyung-Sook Yun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3348, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
A longstanding conundrum regarding the stable oxygen isotope (δ18O) proxy for hydroclimate in speleothems from the Korean Peninsula, which, unlike records from East Asia (e.g., China), do not exhibit isotopic shifts in response to precession forcing. Using Korean speleothem records spanning several orbital-scale segments of the last ~550,000 years and paleoclimate simulations, the present study proposes a plausible role of the oceanic and continental moisture mixing in suppressing δ18O signals.
Didier Swingedouw, Laura Jackson, Aixue Hu, Anastasia Romanou, Nicole C. Laureanti, Wilbert Weijer, Sina Loriani, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Lucas Almeida, Alessio Bellucci, Reyk Börner, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Donovan P. Dennis, Marion Devilliers, Sybren Drijfhout, Jonathan Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas L. Frölicher, Guillaume Gastineau, Heiko Goelzer, Chuncheng Guo, Urs Hofmann, Anna Höse, Colin Jones, Torben Koenigk, Ann Kristin Klose, Valerio Lembo, Jose Licon-Salaiz, Ken Mankoff, Virna Meccia, Irina Melnikova, Oliver Mehling, Laurie Menviel, Juliette Mignot, Jon I. Robson, Gavin A. Schmidt, Robin Smith, Yuchen Sun, Irene Trombini, Matteo Willeit, Richard Wood, Fanghua Wu, Lin Zhaohui, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1698, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a plan for climate model experiments to better understand how changes in freshwater in the North Atlantic affect major ocean currents. We designed coordinated simulations to test their response to warming, added freshwater, and possible recovery after weakening. Comparing results across models and past climate evidence helps improve confidence in projections and assess risks of large ocean circulation changes.
Sun-Seon Lee, Sahil Sharma, Nan Rosenbloom, Keith B. Rodgers, Ji-Eun Kim, Eun Young Kwon, Christian L. E. Franzke, In-Won Kim, Mohanan Geethalekshmi Sreeush, and Karl Stein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1427–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A new 10-member ensemble simulation with the state-of-the-art Earth system model was employed to study the long-term climate response to sustained greenhouse warming through to the year 2500. The findings show that the projected changes in the forced mean state and internal variability during 2101–2500 differ substantially from the 21st-century projections, emphasizing the importance of multi-century perspectives for understanding future climate change and informing effective mitigation strategies.
Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian L. E. Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Dae-Won Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana N. Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1103–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Based on a series of storm-resolving greenhouse warming simulations conducted with the AWI-CM3 model at 9 km global atmosphere and 4–25 km ocean resolution, we present new projections of regional climate change, modes of climate variability, and extreme events. The 10-year-long high-resolution simulations for the 2000s, 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were initialized from a coarser-resolution transient run (31 km atmosphere) which follows the SSP5-8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario from 1950–2100 CE.
Christine Kaufhold, Matteo Willeit, Bo Liu, and Andrey Ganopolski
Biogeosciences, 22, 2767–2801, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2767-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2767-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study simulates long-term future climate scenarios to assess the persistence of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere. Results show that the land stores 4 %–13 % of emissions after 100 kyr and that the removal timescale of CO2 for silicate weathering is shorter than previously expected. Our study highlights the importance of adding model complexity to the global carbon cycle in Earth system models for improved predictions of long-term atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Chenzhi Li, Anne Dallmeyer, Jian Ni, Manuel Chevalier, Matteo Willeit, Andrei A. Andreev, Xianyong Cao, Laura Schild, Birgit Heim, Mareike Wieczorek, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 21, 1001–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1001-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1001-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present global megabiome dynamics and distributions derived from pollen-based reconstructions over the last 21 000 years, which are suitable for the evaluation of Earth-system-model-based paleo-megabiome simulations. We identified strong deviations between pollen- and model-derived megabiome distributions in the circum-Arctic and Tibetan Plateau areas during the Last Glacial Maximum and early deglaciation and in northern Africa and the Mediterranean region during the Holocene.
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Neil R. Edwards, and Stefan Rahmstorf
Clim. Past, 20, 2719–2739, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2719-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2719-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using an Earth system model that can simulate Dansgaard–Oeschger-like events, we show that conditions under which millennial-scale climate variability occurs are related to the integrated surface buoyancy flux over the northern North Atlantic. This newly defined buoyancy measure explains why millennial-scale climate variability arising from abrupt changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation occurred for mid-glacial conditions but not for interglacial or full glacial conditions.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1417–1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a fast Earth system model we trace the stability landscape of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the combined freshwater forcing–atmospheric CO2 space. We find four different Atlantic meridional overturning circulation states that are stable under different conditions and a generally increasing equilibrium Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength with increasing CO2 concentrations.
Stefanie Talento, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 1349–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1349-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To trigger glacial inception, the summer maximum insolation at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere must be lower than a critical value. This value is not constant but depends on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Paleoclimatic data do not give enough information to derive the relationship between the critical threshold and CO2. However, knowledge of such a relation is important for predicting future glaciations and the impact anthropogenic CO2 emissions might have on them.
Matteo Willeit, Reinhard Calov, Stefanie Talento, Ralf Greve, Jorjo Bernales, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 597–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present transient simulations of the last glacial inception with the coupled climate–ice sheet model CLIMBER-X showing a rapid increase in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet area and a sea level drop by ~ 35 m, with the vegetation feedback playing a key role. Overall, our simulations confirm and refine previous results showing that climate-vegetation–cryosphere–carbon cycle feedbacks play a fundamental role in the transition from interglacial to glacial states.
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 151–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-151-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-151-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite significant progress in modelling Quaternary climate dynamics, a comprehensive theory of glacial cycles is still lacking. Here, using the results of model simulations and data analysis, I present a framework of the generalized Milankovitch theory (GMT), which further advances the concept proposed by Milutin Milankovitch over a century ago. The theory explains a number of facts which were not known during Milankovitch time's, such as the 100 kyr periodicity of the late Quaternary.
Takahito Mitsui, Matteo Willeit, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1277–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The glacial–interglacial cycles of the Quaternary exhibit 41 kyr periodicity before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) around 1.2–0.8 Myr ago and ~100 kyr periodicity after that. The mechanism generating these periodicities remains elusive. Through an analysis of an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, we show that the dominant periodicities of glacial cycles can be explained from the viewpoint of synchronization theory.
Christine Kaufhold and Andrey Ganopolski
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 2, 89–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-89-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-89-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A repository in Germany must be secure for a period of at least 1 million years. We argue that the deep-future climate should be considered in the site selection process. A suite of possible future climates will be provided, using different emission scenarios. In low-emission scenarios, glacial cycles will quickly resume, changing subterranean stress and permafrost. In high-emission scenarios, the sea level will rise. Both regimes should be of interest to those working on nuclear waste disposal.
Matteo Willeit, Tatiana Ilyina, Bo Liu, Christoph Heinze, Mahé Perrette, Malte Heinemann, Daniela Dalmonech, Victor Brovkin, Guy Munhoven, Janine Börker, Jens Hartmann, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3501–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the carbon cycle component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. The model can be run with interactive atmospheric CO2 to investigate the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle on temporal scales ranging from decades to > 100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate–carbon cycle changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the Earth system.
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Alexander Robinson, and Neil R. Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the climate component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. It has a horizontal resolution of 5°x5° and is designed to simulate the evolution of the Earth system on temporal scales ranging from decades to >100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is available as open-source code and is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the climate.
Keith B. Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Nan Rosenbloom, Axel Timmermann, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Clara Deser, Jim Edwards, Ji-Eun Kim, Isla R. Simpson, Karl Stein, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Tamás Bódai, Eui-Seok Chung, Lei Huang, Who M. Kim, Jean-François Lamarque, Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder, and Stephen G. Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1393–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A large ensemble of simulations with 100 members has been conducted with the state-of-the-art CESM2 Earth system model, using historical and SSP3-7.0 forcing. Our main finding is that there are significant changes in the variance of the Earth system in response to anthropogenic forcing, with these changes spanning a broad range of variables important to impacts for human populations and ecosystems.
Stefanie Talento and Andrey Ganopolski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1275–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a model for glacial cycles and produce an assessment of possible trajectories for the next 1 million years. Under natural conditions, the next glacial inception would most likely occur ∼50 kyr after present. We show that fossil-fuel CO2 releases can have an extremely long-term effect. Potentially achievable CO2 anthropogenic emissions during the next centuries will most likely provoke ice-free conditions in the Northern Hemisphere landmasses throughout the next half a million years.
Cited articles
Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., Kawamura, K., Raymo, M. E., Okuno, J., Takahashi, K., and Blatter, H.: Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume, Nature, 500, 190–193, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12374, 2013.
An, Z., Clemens, S. C., Shen, J., Qiang, X., Jin, Z., Sun, Y., Prell, W. L., Luo, J., Wang, S., Xu, H., Cai, Y., Zhou, W., Liu, X., Liu, W., Shi, Z., Yan, L., Xiao, X., Chang, H., Wu, F., Ai, L., and Lu, F.: Glacial-Interglacial Indian Summer Monsoon Dynamics, Science, 333, 719–723, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1203752, 2011.
An, Z., Guoxiong, W., Jianping, L., Youbin, S., Yimin, L., Weijian, Z., Yanjun, C., Anmin, D., Li, L., Jiangyu, M., Hai, C., Zhengguo, S., Liangcheng, T., Hong, Y., Hong, A., Hong, C., and Juan, F.: Global Monsoon Dynamics and Climate Change, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 43, 29–77, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-060313-054623, 2015.
Argus, D. F., Peltier, W. R., Drummond, R., and Moore, A. W.: The Antarctica component of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5a) based on GPS positioning, exposure age dating of ice thicknesses, and relative sea level histories, Geophys. J. Int., 198, 537–563, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggu140, 2014.
Baggenstos, D., Häberli, M., Schmitt, J., Shackleton, S. A., Birner, B., Severinghaus, J. P., Kellerhals, T., and Fischer, H.: Earth's radiative imbalance from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 14881–14886, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1905447116, 2019.
Barker, S., Knorr, G., Edwards, R. L., Parrenin, F., Putnam, A. E., Skinner, L. C., Wolff, E., and Ziegler, M.: 800,000 Years of Abrupt Climate Variability, Science, 334, 347–351, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1203580, 2011.
Berger, A.: Long-term variations of caloric insolation resulting from the earth's orbital elements, Quatern. Res., 9, 139–167, https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(78)90064-9, 1978.
Bintanja, R. and van de Wal, R. S. W.: North American ice-sheet dynamics and the onset of 100,000-year glacial cycles, Nature, 454, 869–872, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07158, 2008.
Bjerknes, J.: Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction, in: Advances in Geophysics, edited by: Landsberg, H. E. and Van Mieghem, J., Elsevier, 1–82, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2687(08)60005-9, 1964.
Cao, J., Wang, B., and Liu, J.: Attribution of the Last Glacial Maximum climate formation, Clim. Dynam., 53, 1661–1679, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04711-6, 2019.
Cartagena-Sierra, A., Berke, M. A., Robinson, R. S., Marcks, B., Castañeda, I. S., Starr, A., Hall, I. R., Hemming, S. R., LeVay, L. J., and Party, E. S.: Latitudinal Migrations of the Subtropical Front at the Agulhas Plateau Through the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, Paleoceanogr. Paleoclim., 36, e2020PA004084, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004084, 2021.
CESM1.2 Paleoclimate Toolkit: NCAR CESM1.2 code and resoures for paleoclimate configulation, https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/paleo (last access: 11 October 2023), 2023.
Chiang, J. C. H. and Bitz, C. M.: Influence of high latitude ice cover on the marine Intertropical Convergence Zone, Clim. Dynam., 25, 477–496, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0040-5, 2005.
Clark, P. U., Archer, D., Pollard, D., Blum, J. D., Rial, J. A., Brovkin, V., Mix, A. C., Pisias, N. G., and Roy, M.: The middle Pleistocene transition: characteristics, mechanisms, and implications for long-term changes in atmospheric pCO2, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 25, 3150–3184, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.07.008, 2006.
Clemens, S. C. and Prell, W. L.: A 350,000 year summer-monsoon multi-proxy stack from the Owen Ridge, Northern Arabian Sea, Mar. Geol., 201, 35–51, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-3227(03)00207-X, 2003.
Clemens, S. C., Prell, W. L., Sun, Y., Liu, Z., and Chen, G.: Southern Hemisphere forcing of Pliocene δ18O and the evolution of Indo-Asian monsoons, Paleoceanography, 23, PA4210, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008PA001638, 2008.
Clemens, S. C., Holbourn, A., Kubota, Y., Lee, K. E., Liu, Z., Chen, G., Nelson, A., and Fox-Kemper, B.: Precession-band variance missing from East Asian monsoon runoff, Nat. Commun., 9, 3364, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05814-0, 2018.
Clement, A. C., Hall, A., and Broccoli, A. J.: The importance of precessional signals in the tropical climate, Clim. Dynam., 22, 327–341, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0375-8, 2004.
Davis, B. A. S. and Brewer, S.: Orbital forcing and role of the latitudinal insolation/temperature gradient, Clim. Dynam. 32, 143–165, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0480-9, 2009.
de Garidel-Thoron, T., Rosenthal, Y., Bassinot, F., and Beaufort, L.: Stable sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific warm pool over the past 1.75 million years, Nature, 433, 294–298, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03189, 2005.
Di Nezio, P. N., Timmermann, A., Tierney, J. E., Jin, F. F., Otto-Bliesner, B., Rosenbloom, N., Mapes, B., Neale, R., Ivanovic, R. F., and Montenegro, A.: The climate response of the Indo-Pacific warm pool to glacial sea level, Paleoceanography, 31, 866–894, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015pa002890, 2016.
Donohoe, A. and Battisti, D. S.: Causes of Reduced North Atlantic Storm Activity in a CAM3 Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum, J. Climate, 22, 4793–4808, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2776.1, 2009.
Donohoe, A., Armour, K. C., Roe, G. H., Battisti, D. S., and Hahn, L.: The Partitioning of Meridional Heat Transport from the Last Glacial Maximum to CO2 Quadrupling in Coupled Climate Models, J. Climate, 33, 4141–4165, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0797.1, 2020.
Friedrich, T. and Timmermann, A.: Millennial-scale glacial meltwater pulses and their effect on the spatiotemporal benthic δ18O variability, Paleoceanography, 27, PA3215, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012pa002330, 2012.
Friedrich, T., Timmermann, A., Tigchelaar, M., Timm, O. E., and Ganopolski, A.: Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming, Sci. Adv., 2, e1501923, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1501923, 2016.
Frierson, D. M. W., Hwang, Y.-T., Fučkar, N. S., Seager, R., Kang, S. M., Donohoe, A., Maroon, E. A., Liu, X., and Battisti, D. S.: Contribution of ocean overturning circulation to tropical rainfall peak in the Northern Hemisphere, Nat. Geosci., 6, 940–944, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1987, 2013.
Ganopolski, A., Calov, R., and Claussen, M.: Simulation of the last glacial cycle with a coupled climate ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, Clim. Past, 6, 229–244, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-229-2010, 2010.
Gong, D. and Wang, S.: Definition of Antarctic Oscillation index, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 459–462, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900003, 1999.
Goosse, H., Brovkin, V., Fichefet, T., Haarsma, R., Huybrechts, P., Jongma, J., Mouchet, A., Selten, F., Barriat, P. Y., Campin, J. M., Deleersnijder, E., Driesschaert, E., Goelzer, H., Janssens, I., Loutre, M. F., Morales Maqueda, M. A., Opsteegh, T., Mathieu, P. P., Munhoven, G., Pettersson, E. J., Renssen, H., Roche, D. M., Schaeffer, M., Tartinville, B., Timmermann, A., and Weber, S. L.: Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 603–633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-603-2010, 2010.
Hahn, L. C., Armour, K. C., Battisti, D. S., Donohoe, A., Pauling, A. G., and Bitz, C. M.: Antarctic Elevation Drives Hemispheric Asymmetry in Polar Lapse Rate Climatology and Feedback, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL088965, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088965, 2020.
Heinemann, M., Timmermann, A., Timm, O. E., Saito, F., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Deglacial ice sheet meltdown: orbital pacemaking and CO2 effects, Clim. Past, 10, 1567–1579, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1567-2014, 2014.
Held, I. M.: The Partitioning of the Poleward Energy Transport between the Tropical Ocean and Atmosphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 943–948, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<0943:Tpotpe>2.0.Co;2, 2001.
Herbert, T. D., Peterson, L. C., Lawrence, K. T., and Liu, Z.: Tropical Ocean Temperatures Over the Past 3.5 Million Years, Science, 328, 1530–1534, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1185435, 2010.
Hu, A., Meehl, G., Han, W., Timmermann, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., Liu, Z., Washington, W., Large, W., Abe-Ouchi, A., Kimoto, M., Lambeck, K., and Wu, B.: Role of the Bering Strait on the hysteresis of the ocean conveyor belt circulation and glacial climate stability, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 6417–6422, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1116014109, 2012.
Hurrell, J. W., Holland, M. M., Gent, P. R., Ghan, S., Kay, J. E., Kushner, P. J., Lamarque, J.-F., Large, W. G., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Long, M. C., Mahowald, N., Marsh, D. R., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P., Vavrus, S., Vertenstein, M., Bader, D., Collins, W. D., Hack, J. J., Kiehl, J., and Marshall, S.: The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1339–1360, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-12-00121.1, 2013.
Jin, F. F., Neelin, J. D., and Ghil, M.: El Nino Southern Oscillation and the annual cycle: Subharmonic frequency-locking and aperiodicity, Physica D, 98, 442–465, https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2789(96)00111-x, 1996.
Johnson, T. C., Werne, J. P., Brown, E. T., Abbott, A., Berke, M., Steinman, B. A., Halbur, J., Contreras, S., Grosshuesch, S., Deino, A., Scholz, C. A., Lyons, R. P., Schouten, S., and Damsté, J. S. S.: A progressively wetter climate in southern East Africa over the past 1.3 million years, Nature, 537, 220–224, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature19065, 2016.
Jouzel, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Cattani, O., Dreyfus, G., Falourd, S., Hoffmann, G., Minster, B., Nouet, J., Barnola, J. M., Chappellaz, J., Fischer, H., Gallet, J. C., Johnsen, S., Leuenberger, M., Loulergue, L., Luethi, D., Oerter, H., Parrenin, F., Raisbeck, G., Raynaud, D., Schilt, A., Schwander, J., Selmo, E., Souchez, R., Spahni, R., Stauffer, B., Steffensen, J. P., Stenni, B., Stocker, T. F., Tison, J. L., Werner, M., and Wolff, E. W.: Orbital and Millennial Antarctic Climate Variability over the Past 800,000 Years, Science, 317, 793–796, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1141038, 2007.
Kamae, Y., Yoshida, K., and Ueda, H.: Sensitivity of Pliocene climate simulations in MRI-CGCM2.3 to respective boundary conditions, Clim. Past, 12, 1619–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1619-2016, 2016.
Kang, S. M., Shin, Y., and Xie, S.-P.: Extratropical forcing and tropical rainfall distribution: energetics framework and ocean Ekman advection, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 1, 20172, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-017-0004-6, 2018.
Karamperidou, C., Di Nezio, P. N., Timmermann, A., Jin, F. F., and Cobb, K. M.: The response of ENSO flavors to mid-Holocene climate: implications for proxy interpretation, Paleoceanography, 30, 527–547, 2015.
Karamperidou, C., Stuecker, M. F., Timmermann, A., Yun, K.-S., Lee, S.-S., Jin, F. F., Santoso, A., McPhaden, M. J., and Cai, W.: ENSO in a Changing Climate: Challenges, Paleo-Perspectives, and Outlook, in: El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate, edited by: McPhaden, M. J., Santoso, A., and Cai, W., John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 471–484, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119548164.ch21, 2020.
Kaspar, F., Spangehl, T., and Cubasch, U.: Northern hemisphere winter storm tracks of the Eemian interglacial and the last glacial inception, Clim. Past, 3, 181–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-181-2007, 2007.
Kim, S. J.: The effect of atmospheric CO2 and ice sheet topography on LGM climate, Clim. Dynam., 22, 639–651, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0412-2, 2004.
Kindler, P., Guillevic, M., Baumgartner, M., Schwander, J., Landais, A., and Leuenberger, M.: Temperature reconstruction from 10 to 120 kyr b2k from the NGRIP ice core, Clim. Past, 10, 887–902, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-887-2014, 2014.
Kocken, I. J., Cramwinckel, M. J., Zeebe, R. E., Middelburg, J. J., and Sluijs, A.: The 405 kyr and 2.4 Myr eccentricity components in Cenozoic carbon isotope records, Clim. Past, 15, 91–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-91-2019, 2019.
Kohler, P., Bintanja, R., Fischer, H., Joos, F., Knutti, R., Lohmann, G., and Masson-Delmotte, V.: What caused Earth's temperature variations during the last 800,000 years? Data-based evidence on radiative forcing and constraints on climate sensitivity, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 129–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.09.026, 2010.
Kutzbach, J. E. and Guetter, P. J.: The Influence of Changing Orbital Parameters and Surface Boundary Conditions on Climate Simulations for the Past 18 000 Years, J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 1726–1759, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<1726:Tiocop>2.0.Co;2, 1986.
Lamy, F., Chiang, J. C. H., Martínez-Méndez, G., Thierens, M., Arz, H. W., Bosmans, J., Hebbeln, D., Lambert, F., Lembke-Jene, L., and Stuut, J.-B.: Precession modulation of the South Pacific westerly wind belt over the past million years, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 23455–23460, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1905847116, 2019.
Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A. C. M., and Levrard, B.: A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth, Astron. Astrophys., 428, 261–285, 2004.
Lawrence, K. T., Herbert, T. D., Brown, C. M., Raymo, M. E., and Haywood, A. M.: High-amplitude variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature during the early Pliocene warm period, Paleoceanography, 24, PA2218, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008PA001669, 2009.
Li, J. and Wang, J. X. L.: A modified zonal index and its physical sense, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1632, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017441, 2003.
Lilien, D. A., Steinhage, D., Taylor, D., Parrenin, F., Ritz, C., Mulvaney, R., Martin, C., Yan, J. B., O'Neill, C., Frezzotti, M., Miller, H., Gogineni, P., Dahl-Jensen, D., and Eisen, O.: Brief communication: New radar constraints support presence of ice older than 1.5 Myr at Little Dome C, The Cryosphere, 15, 1881–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1881-2021, 2021.
Lisiecki, L. E. and Raymo, M. E.: A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ18O records, Paleoceanography, 20, PA1003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004PA001071, 2005.
Liu, X., Battisti, D. S., and Donohoe, A.: Tropical Precipitation and Cross-Equatorial Ocean Heat Transport during the Mid-Holocene, J. Climate, 30, 3529–3547, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0502.1, 2017.
Liu, Y., Lo, L., Shi, Z., Wei, K.-Y., Chou, C.-J., Chen, Y.-C., Chuang, C.-K., Wu, C.-C., Mii, H.-S., Peng, Z., Amakawa, H., Burr, G. S., Lee, S.-Y., DeLong, K. L., Elderfield, H., and Shen, C.-C.: Obliquity pacing of the western Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone over the past 282,000 years, Nat. Commun., 6, 10018, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10018, 2015.
Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., He, F., Brady, E. C., Tomas, R., Clark, P. U., Carlson, A. E., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Curry, W., Brook, E., Erickson, D., Jacob, R., Kutzbach, J., and Cheng, J.: Transient Simulation of Last Deglaciation with a New Mechanism for Bølling-Allerød Warming, Science, 325, 310–314, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1171041, 2009.
Liu, Z., Lu, Z., Wen, X., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Timmermann, A., and Cobb, K. M.: Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years, Nature, 515, 550–553, 2014.
Lorenz, S. J. and Lohmann, G.: Acceleration technique for Milankovitch type forcing in a coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model: method and application for the holocene, Clim. Dynam., 23, 727–743, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0469-y, 2004.
Lu, Z., Liu, Z., Chen, G., and Guan, J.: Prominent precession band variance in ENSO intensity over the last 300,000 years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 9786–9795, 2019.
Lunt, D. J., Williamson, M. S., Valdes, P. J., Lenton, T. M., and Marsh, R.: Comparing transient, accelerated, and equilibrium simulations of the last 30 000 years with the GENIE-1 model, Clim. Past, 2, 221–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2-221-2006, 2006.
Lupien, R. L., Russell, J. M., Pearson, E. J., Castañeda, I. S., Asrat, A., Foerster, V., Lamb, H. F., Roberts, H. M., Schäbitz, F., Trauth, M. H., Beck, C. C., Feibel, C. S., and Cohen, A. S.: Orbital controls on eastern African hydroclimate in the Pleistocene, Sci. Rep.-UK, 12, 3170, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-06826-z, 2022.
Lüthi, D., Le Floch, M., Bereiter, B., Blunier, T., Barnola, J.-M., Siegenthaler, U., Raynaud, D., Jouzel, J., Fischer, H., Kawamura, K., and Stocker, T. F.: High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present, Nature, 453, 379–382, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06949, 2008.
Margari, V., Hodell, D. A., Parfitt, S. A., Ashton, N. M., Grimalt, J. O., Kim, H., Yun, K.-S., Gibbard, P. L., Stringer, C. B., Timmermann, A., and Tzedakis, P. C.: Extreme glacial cooling likely led to hominin depopulation of Europe in the Early Pleistocene, Science, 381, 693–699, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adf4445, 2023.
Martínez-Garcia, A., Rosell-Melé, A., McClymont, E. L., Gersonde, R., and Haug, G. H.: Subpolar Link to the Emergence of the Modern Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue, Science, 328, 1550–1553, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1184480, 2010.
Martínez-Garcia, A., Rosell-Melé, A., Jaccard, S. L., Geibert, W., Sigman, D. M., and Haug, G. H.: Southern Ocean dust–climate coupling over the past four million years, Nature, 476, 312–315, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10310, 2011.
Masson-Delmotte, V., Schulz, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Beer, J., Ganopolski, A., González Rouco, J. F., Jansen, E., Lambeck, K., Luterbacher, J., Naish, T., Osborn, T., Otto-Bliesner, B., Quinn, T., Ramesh, R., Rojas, M., Shao, X., and Timmermann, A.: Information from paleoclimate archives, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Doschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, 383–464, https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9781107415324.013, 2013.
McClymont, E. L., Sosdian, S. M., Rosell-Melé, A., and Rosenthal, Y.: Pleistocene sea-surface temperature evolution: Early cooling, delayed glacial intensification, and implications for the mid-Pleistocene climate transition, Earth-Sci. Rev., 123, 173–193, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2013.04.006, 2013.
Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Eyring, V., Flato, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E., and Schlund, M.: Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models, Sci. Adv., 6, eaba1981, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba1981, 2020.
Menviel, L., Timmermann, A., Timm, O. E., and Mouchet, A.: Climate and biogeochemical response to a rapid melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during interglacials and implications for future climate, Paleoceanography, 25, PA4231, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009pa001892, 2010.
Menviel, L., Timmermann, A., Timm, O. E., and Mouchet, A.: Deconstructing the Last Glacial termination: the role of millennial and orbital-scale forcings, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30, 1155–1172, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.02.005, 2011.
Menviel, L., Timmermann, A., Friedrich, T., and England, M. H.: Hindcasting the continuum of Dansgaard-Oeschger variability: mechanisms, patterns and timing, Clim. Past, 10, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-63-2014, 2014.
Merlis, T. M., Schneider, T., Bordoni, S., and Eisenman, I.: Hadley Circulation Response to Orbital Precession. Part II: Subtropical Continent, J. Climate, 26, 754–771, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00149.1, 2013.
Morrison, A. K., Griffies, S. M., Winton, M., Anderson, W. G., and Sarmiento, J. L.: Mechanisms of Southern Ocean Heat Uptake and Transport in a Global Eddying Climate Model, J. Climate, 29, 2059–2075, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0579.1, 2016.
Naafs, B. D. A., Hefter, J., Acton, G., Haug, G. H., Martínez-Garcia, A., Pancost, R., and Stein, R.: Strengthening of North American dust sources during the late Pliocene (2.7 Ma), Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 317–318, 8–19, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.11.026, 2012.
Newsom, E. R., Thompson, A. F., Adkins, J. F., and Galbraith, E. D.: A hemispheric asymmetry in poleward ocean heat transport across climates: Implications for overturning and polar warming, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 568, 117033, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2021.117033, 2021.
Nie, J. S.: The Plio-Pleistocene 405-kyr climate cycles, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl. Palaeoecol., 510, 26–30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2017.07.022, 2018.
Petrick, B., Martínez-García, A., Auer, G., Reuning, L., Auderset, A., Deik, H., Takayanagi, H., De Vleeschouwer, D., Iryu, Y., and Haug, G. H.: Glacial Indonesian Throughflow weakening across the Mid-Pleistocene Climatic Transition, Sci. Rep.-UK, 9, 16995, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-53382-0, 2019.
Ruan, J., Timmermann, A., Raia, P., Yun, K.-S., Zeller, E., Monadanaro, A., Di Febbraro, M., Lemmon, D., Castiglione, S., and Melchionna, M.: Climate shifts orchestrated hominin interbreeding events across Eurasia, Science, 381, 699–704, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.add4459, 2023.
Russon, T., Elliot, M., Sadekov, A., Cabioch, G., Corrège, T., and De Deckker, P.: Inter-hemispheric asymmetry in the early Pleistocene Pacific warm pool, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L11601, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043191, 2010.
Schneider, T.: Feedback of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on Shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11644–11653, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075817, 2017.
Schneider, T., Bischoff, T., and Haug, G. H.: Migrations and dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone, Nature, 513, 45–53, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13636, 2014.
Schneider von Deimling, T., Ganopolski, A., Held, H., and Rahmstorf, S.: How cold was the Last Glacial Maximum?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L14709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026484, 2006.
Screen, J. A., Bracegirdle, T. J., and Simmonds, I.: Polar Climate Change as Manifest in Atmospheric Circulation, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 383–395, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0111-4, 2018.
Singarayer, J. S. and Valdes, P. J.: High-latitude climate sensitivity to ice-sheet forcing over the last 120 kyr, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 43–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.10.011, 2010.
Smith, R. S. and Gregory, J.: The last glacial cycle: transient simulations with an AOGCM, Clim. Dynam., 38, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1283-y, 2012.
Stap, L. B., van de Wal, R. S. W., de Boer, B., Kohler, P., Hoencamp, J. H., Lohmann, G., Tuenter, E., and Lourens, L. J.: Modeled Influence of Land Ice and CO2 on Polar Amplification and Paleoclimate Sensitivity During the Past 5 Million Years, Paleoceanogr. Paleoclim., 33, 381–394, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017pa003313, 2018.
Stein, K., Timmermann, A., Kwon, E. Y., and Friedrich, T.: Timing and magnitude of Southern Ocean sea ice/carbon cycle feedbacks, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 4498–4504, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1908670117, 2020.
Stone, P. H.: Constraints on dynamical transports of energy on a spherical planet, Dynam. Atmos. Oceans, 2, 123–139, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0265(78)90006-4, 1978.
Stott, L., Timmermann, A., and Thunell, R.: Southern Hemisphere and Deep-Sea Warming Led Deglacial Atmospheric CO2 Rise and Tropical Warming, Science, 318, 435–438, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1143791, 2007.
3Ma-Data: Transient 3Ma model simulatation data, https://climatedata.ibs.re.kr. (last access: 11 October 2023), 2023.
Tiedemann, R., Sarnthein, M., and Shackleton, N. J.: Astronomic timescale for the Pliocene Atlantic δ18O and dust flux records of Ocean Drilling Program Site 659, Paleoceanography, 9, 619–638, https://doi.org/10.1029/94PA00208, 1994.
Tierney, J. E., Zhu, J., King, J., Malevich, S. B., Hakim, G. J., and Poulsen, C. J.: Glacial cooling and climate sensitivity revisited, Nature, 584, 569–573, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2617-x, 2020.
Tigchelaar, M. and Timmermann, A.: Mechanisms rectifying the annual mean response of tropical Atlantic rainfall to precessional forcing, Clim. Dynam., 47, 271–293, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2835-3, 2016.
Tigchelaar, M., Timmermann, A., Pollard, D., Friedrich, T., and Heinemann, M.: Local insolation changes enhance Antarctic interglacials: Insights from an 800,000-year ice sheet simulation with transient climate forcing, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 495, 69–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2018.05.004, 2018.
Tigchelaar, M., Timmermann, A., Friedrich, T., Heinemann, M., and Pollard, D.: Nonlinear response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to late Quaternary sea level and climate forcing, The Cryosphere, 13, 2615–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2615-2019, 2019.
Timm, O. and Timmermann, A.: Simulation of the last 21 000 years using accelerated transient boundary conditions, J. Climate, 20, 4377–4401, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli4237.1, 2007.
Timm, O., Timmermann, A., Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., and Segawa, T.: On the definition of seasons in paleoclimate simulations with orbital forcing, Paleoceanography, 23, PA2221, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007pa001461, 2008.
Timmermann, A. and Friedrich, T.: Late Pleistocene climate drivers of early human migration, Nature, 538, 92–95, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature19365, 2016.
Timmermann, A., Lorenz, S. J., An, S.-I., Clement, A., and Xie, S.-P.: The Effect of Orbital Forcing on the Mean Climate and Variability of the Tropical Pacific, J. Climate, 20, 4147–4159, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli4240.1, 2007.
Timmermann, A., Timm, O., Stott, L., and Menviel, L.: The Roles of CO2 and Orbital Forcing in Driving Southern Hemispheric Temperature Variations during the Last 21 000 Yr, J. Climate, 22, 1626–1640, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2161.1, 2009.
Timmermann, A., Knies, J., Timm, O. E., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Friedrich, T.: Promotion of glacial ice sheet buildup 60–115 kyr B.P. by precessionally paced Northern Hemispheric meltwater pulses, Paleoceanography, 25, PA4208, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010pa001933, 2010.
Timmermann, A., Sachs, J., and Timm, O. E.: Assessing divergent SST behavior during the last 21 ka derived from alkenones and G. ruber-Mg/Ca in the equatorial Pacific, Paleoceanography, 29, 680–696, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013pa002598, 2014a.
Timmermann, A., Friedrich, T., Timm, O. E., Chikamoto, M. O., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Ganopolski, A.: Modeling Obliquity and CO2 Effects on Southern Hemisphere Climate during the Past 408 ka, J. Climate, 27, 1863–1875, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00311.1, 2014b.
Timmermann, A., Yun, K. S., Raia, P., Ruan, J. Y., Mondanaro, A., Zeller, E., Zollikofer, C., de Leon, M. P., Lemmon, D., Willeit, M., and Ganopolski, A.: Climate effects on archaic human habitats and species successions, Nature, 604, 495–501, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04600-9, 2022.
Torrence, C. and Compo, G. P.: A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 61–78, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0061:Apgtwa>2.0.Co;2, 1998.
Varma, V., Prange, M., and Schulz, M.: Transient simulations of the present and the last interglacial climate using the Community Climate System Model version 3: effects of orbital acceleration, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3859–3873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3859-2016, 2016.
Willeit, M. and Ganopolski, A.: The importance of snow albedo for ice sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle, Clim. Past, 14, 697–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, 2018.
Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Calov, R., and Brovkin, V.: Mid-Pleistocene transition in glacial cycles explained by declining CO2 and regolith removal, Sci. Adv., 5, eaav733, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav7337, 2019.
Yamanouchi, T. and Charlock, T. P.: Effects of clouds, ice sheet, and sea ice on the Earth radiation budget in the Antarctic, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102, 6953–6970, https://doi.org/10.1029/96JD02866, 1997.
Yang, H., Li, Q., Wang, K., Sun, Y., and Sun, D.: Decomposing the meridional heat transport in the climate system, Clim. Dynam., 44, 2751–2768, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2380-5, 2015.
Yarincik, K. M., Murray, R. W., and Peterson, L. C.: Climatically sensitive eolian and hemipelagic deposition in the Cariaco Basin, Venezuela, over the past 578,000 years: Results from
Yin, Q., Berger, A., Driesschaert, E., Goosse, H., Loutre, M. F., and Crucifix, M.: The Eurasian ice sheet reinforces the East Asian summer monsoon during the interglacial 500 000 years ago, Clim. Past, 4, 79–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-4-79-2008, 2008.
Yu, S. and Pritchard, M. S.: A Strong Role for the AMOC in Partitioning Global Energy Transport and Shifting ITCZ Position in Response to Latitudinally Discrete Solar Forcing in CESM1.2, J. Climate, 32, 2207–2226, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0360.1, 2019.
Zeller, E., Timmermann, A., Yun, K. S., Raia, P., Stein, K., and Ruan, J. Y.: Human adaptation to diverse biomes over the past 3 million years, Science, 380, 604–608, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abq1288, 2023.
Zhang, S., Yu, Z. F., Gong, X., Wang, Y., Chang, F. M., Lohmman, G., Qi, Y. Q., and Li, T. G.: Precession cycles of the El Nino/Southern oscillation-like system controlled by Pacific upper-ocean stratification, Commun. Earth Environ., 2, 239, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00305-5, 2021.
Download
- Article
(19362 KB) - Full-text XML
Short summary
To quantify the sensitivity of the earth system to orbital-scale forcings, we conducted an unprecedented quasi-continuous coupled general climate model simulation with the Community Earth System Model, which covers the climatic history of the past 3 million years. This study could stimulate future transient paleo-climate model simulations and perspectives to further highlight and document the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the broader paleo-climatic context.
To quantify the sensitivity of the earth system to orbital-scale forcings, we conducted an...
Special issue