Articles | Volume 18, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1983-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1983-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Sep 2022
Research article |
| 01 Sep 2022
| 01 Sep 2022
Insolation evolution and ice volume legacies determine interglacial and glacial intensity
Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Polychronis C. Tzedakis
Environmental Change Research Centre, Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK
Eric W. Wolff
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Related authors
Takahito Mitsui, Shunji Kotsuki, Naoya Fujiwara, Atsushi Okazaki, and Keita Tokuda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-987, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-987, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme weather poses serious risks, making prevention crucial. Using the Lorenz 96 model as a testbed, we propose a bottom-up approach to mitigate extreme events via local interventions guided by multi-scenario ensemble forecasts. Unlike control-theoretic methods, our approach selects the best control scenario from available options. Achieving up to 99.4 % success, it outperforms previous methods while keeping costs reasonable, offering a practical way to reduce disasters with limited control.
Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
The late Pleistocene glacial cycles are dominated by a 100-kyr periodicity, rather than other major astronomical periods like 19, 23, 41, or 400 kyr. Various models propose distinct mechanisms to explain this, but their diversity may obscure the key factor behind the 100-kyr periodicity. We propose a time-scale matching hypothesis, suggesting that the ice-sheet climate system responds to astronomical forcing at ~100 kyr because its intrinsic timescale is closer to 100 kyr than to other periods.
Takahito Mitsui and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 20, 683–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a system approaching a critical transition. Using these indicators, we identify statistical precursor signals for the Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling events recorded in two climatic proxies of three Greenland ice core records. We then provide a dynamical systems theory that bridges the gap between observing statistical precursor signals and the physical precursor signs empirically known in paleoclimate research.
Takahito Mitsui, Matteo Willeit, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1277–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The glacial–interglacial cycles of the Quaternary exhibit 41 kyr periodicity before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) around 1.2–0.8 Myr ago and ~100 kyr periodicity after that. The mechanism generating these periodicities remains elusive. Through an analysis of an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, we show that the dominant periodicities of glacial cycles can be explained from the viewpoint of synchronization theory.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Akira Oka, Takahito Mitsui, and Fuyuki Saito
Clim. Past, 17, 1919–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial periods underwent climate shifts between warm states and cold states on a millennial timescale. Frequency of these climate shifts varied along time: it was shorter during mid-glacial period compared to early glacial period. Here, from climate simulations of early and mid-glacial periods with a comprehensive climate model, we show that the larger ice sheet in the mid-glacial compared to early glacial periods could contribute to the frequent climate shifts during the mid-glacial period.
Amy Constance Faith King, Thomas Keith Bauska, Amaelle Landais, Carlos Martin, and Eric William Wolff
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3305, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
We show how measurements of nitrogen isotopes in Antarctic ice core records can be used to show dramatic thinning of an ice sheet during ice mass changes in the Holocene. Combining such measurements with proxies for ice sheet elevation could be a powerful tool for constraining the history of ice dynamics at sites which are sensitive to rapid changes, and could contribute to constraining ice sheet models.
Felix S. L. Ng, Rachael H. Rhodes, Tyler J. Fudge, and Eric W. Wolff
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1566, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Impurity diffusion in ice causes loss of climate history. We give a new method of finding the diffusion rate from ice-core records. Its use on sulphate data from the EPICA Dome C core reveals rapid diffusion in snow that suggests H2SO4 vapour diffusion in air pores, and much slower diffusion in the ice below that indicates signal relocation between crystal interfaces. We estimate a maximum sulphate diffusion length of 2 cm for ice 1–2 Myr old sought by the ice-coring projects on Little Dome C.
Niklas Kappelt, Eric Wolff, Marcus Christl, Christof Vockenhuber, Philip Gautschi, and Raimund Muscheler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1780, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
By measuring the radioactive decay of atmospherically produced 36Cl and 10Be in an ice core drilled in West Antarctica, we were able to determine the age of the deepest sample close to bedrock to be about 550 thousand years old. This means that the ice in this location, known as Skytrain Ice Rise, has survived several warm periods in the past, which occur about every 100 thousand years.
Takahito Mitsui, Shunji Kotsuki, Naoya Fujiwara, Atsushi Okazaki, and Keita Tokuda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-987, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-987, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme weather poses serious risks, making prevention crucial. Using the Lorenz 96 model as a testbed, we propose a bottom-up approach to mitigate extreme events via local interventions guided by multi-scenario ensemble forecasts. Unlike control-theoretic methods, our approach selects the best control scenario from available options. Achieving up to 99.4 % success, it outperforms previous methods while keeping costs reasonable, offering a practical way to reduce disasters with limited control.
Biagio Giaccio, Bernd Wagner, Giovanni Zanchetta, Adele Bertini, Gian Paolo Cavinato, Roberto de Franco, Fabio Florindo, David A. Hodell, Thomas A. Neubauer, Sebastien Nomade, Alison Pereira, Laura Sadori, Sara Satolli, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Paul Albert, Paolo Boncio, Cindy De Jonge, Alexander Francke, Christine Heim, Alessia Masi, Marta Marchegiano, Helen M. Roberts, Anders Noren, and the MEME team
Sci. Dril., 33, 249–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-33-249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-33-249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A total of 42 Earth scientists from 14 countries met in Gioia dei Marsi, central Italy, on 23 to 27 October 2023 to explore the potential for deep drilling of the thick lake sediment sequence of the Fucino Basin. The aim was to reconstruct the history of climate, ecosystem, and biodiversity changes and of the explosive volcanism and tectonics in central Italy over the last 3.5 million years, constrained by a detailed radiometric chronology.
Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
The late Pleistocene glacial cycles are dominated by a 100-kyr periodicity, rather than other major astronomical periods like 19, 23, 41, or 400 kyr. Various models propose distinct mechanisms to explain this, but their diversity may obscure the key factor behind the 100-kyr periodicity. We propose a time-scale matching hypothesis, suggesting that the ice-sheet climate system responds to astronomical forcing at ~100 kyr because its intrinsic timescale is closer to 100 kyr than to other periods.
Helene Hoffmann, Jason Day, Rachael H. Rhodes, Mackenzie Grieman, Jack Humby, Isobel Rowell, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Robert Mulvaney, Sally Gibson, and Eric Wolff
The Cryosphere, 18, 4993–5013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4993-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4993-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cores are archives of past atmospheric conditions. In deep and old ice, the layers containing this information get thinned to the millimetre scale or below. We installed a setup for high-resolution (182 μm) chemical impurity measurements in ice cores using the laser ablation technique at the University of Cambridge. In a first application to the Skytrain ice core from Antarctica, we discuss the potential to detect fine-layered structures in ice up to an age of 26 000 years.
Rachael H. Rhodes, Yvan Bollet-Quivogne, Piers Barnes, Mirko Severi, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 20, 2031–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2031-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Some ionic components slowly move through glacier ice by diffusion, but the rate of this diffusion, its exact mechanism(s), and the factors that might influence it are poorly understood. In this study, we model how peaks in sulfate, deposited at Dome C on the Antarctic ice sheet after volcanic eruptions, change with depth and time. We find that the sulfate diffusion rate in ice is relatively fast in young ice near the surface, but the rate is markedly reduced over time.
Dorothea Elisabeth Moser, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Anja Eichler, and Eric Wolff
The Cryosphere, 18, 2691–2718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2691-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing temperatures worldwide lead to more melting of glaciers and ice caps, even in the polar regions. This is why ice-core scientists need to prepare to analyse records affected by melting and refreezing. In this paper, we present a summary of how near-surface melt forms, what structural imprints it leaves in snow, how various signatures used for ice-core climate reconstruction are altered, and how we can still extract valuable insights from melt-affected ice cores.
Takahito Mitsui and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 20, 683–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a system approaching a critical transition. Using these indicators, we identify statistical precursor signals for the Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling events recorded in two climatic proxies of three Greenland ice core records. We then provide a dynamical systems theory that bridges the gap between observing statistical precursor signals and the physical precursor signs empirically known in paleoclimate research.
Takahito Mitsui, Matteo Willeit, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1277–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The glacial–interglacial cycles of the Quaternary exhibit 41 kyr periodicity before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) around 1.2–0.8 Myr ago and ~100 kyr periodicity after that. The mechanism generating these periodicities remains elusive. Through an analysis of an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, we show that the dominant periodicities of glacial cycles can be explained from the viewpoint of synchronization theory.
Isobel Rowell, Carlos Martin, Robert Mulvaney, Helena Pryer, Dieter Tetzner, Emily Doyle, Hara Madhav Talasila, Jilu Li, and Eric Wolff
Clim. Past, 19, 1699–1714, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present an age scale for a new type of ice core from a vulnerable region in West Antarctic, which is lacking in longer-term (greater than a few centuries) ice core records. The Sherman Island core extends to greater than 1 kyr. We provide modelling evidence for the potential of a 10 kyr long core. We show that this new type of ice core can be robustly dated and that climate records from this core will be a significant addition to existing regional climate records.
Robert Mulvaney, Eric W. Wolff, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Helene H. Hoffmann, Jack D. Humby, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Rachael H. Rhodes, Isobel F. Rowell, Frédéric Parrenin, Loïc Schmidely, Hubertus Fischer, Thomas F. Stocker, Marcus Christl, Raimund Muscheler, Amaelle Landais, and Frédéric Prié
Clim. Past, 19, 851–864, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-851-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present an age scale for a new ice core drilled at Skytrain Ice Rise, an ice rise facing the Ronne Ice Shelf in Antarctica. Various measurements in the ice and air phases are used to match the ice core to other Antarctic cores that have already been dated, and a new age scale is constructed. The 651 m ice core includes ice that is confidently dated to 117 000–126 000 years ago, in the last interglacial. Older ice is found deeper down, but there are flow disturbances in the deeper ice.
David A. Hodell, Simon J. Crowhurst, Lucas Lourens, Vasiliki Margari, John Nicolson, James E. Rolfe, Luke C. Skinner, Nicola C. Thomas, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Maryline J. Mleneck-Vautravers, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 19, 607–636, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We produced a 1.5-million-year-long history of climate change at International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1385 of the Iberian margin, a well-known location for rapidly accumulating sediments on the seafloor. Our record demonstrates that longer-term orbital changes in Earth's climate were persistently overprinted by abrupt millennial-to-centennial climate variability. The occurrence of abrupt climate change is modulated by the slower variations in Earth's orbit and climate background state.
Eric W. Wolff, Andrea Burke, Laura Crick, Emily A. Doyle, Helen M. Innes, Sue H. Mahony, James W. B. Rae, Mirko Severi, and R. Stephen J. Sparks
Clim. Past, 19, 23–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-23-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-23-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions leave an imprint of a spike of sulfate deposition that can be measured in ice cores. Here we use a method that logs the number and size of large eruptions recorded in an Antarctic core in a consistent way through the last 200 000 years. The rate of recorded eruptions is variable but shows no trends. In particular, there is no increase in recorded eruptions during deglaciation periods. This is consistent with most recorded eruptions being from lower latitudes.
Helene M. Hoffmann, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Amy C. F. King, Jenna A. Epifanio, Kaden Martin, Diana Vladimirova, Helena V. Pryer, Emily Doyle, Axel Schmidt, Jack D. Humby, Isobel F. Rowell, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Robert Mulvaney, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 18, 1831–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1831-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The WACSWAIN project (WArm Climate Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the last INterglacial) investigates the fate of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last warm period on Earth (115 000–130 000 years before present). Within this framework an ice core was recently drilled at Skytrain Ice Rise. In this study we present a stratigraphic chronology of that ice core based on absolute age markers and annual layer counting for the last 2000 years.
Eric W. Wolff, Hubertus Fischer, Tas van Ommen, and David A. Hodell
Clim. Past, 18, 1563–1577, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1563-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1563-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Projects are underway to drill ice cores in Antarctica reaching 1.5 Myr back in time. Dating such cores will be challenging. One method is to match records from the new core against datasets from existing marine sediment cores. Here we explore the options for doing this and assess how well the ice and marine records match over the existing 800 000-year time period. We are able to recommend a strategy for using marine data to place an age scale on the new ice cores.
Laura Crick, Andrea Burke, William Hutchison, Mika Kohno, Kathryn A. Moore, Joel Savarino, Emily A. Doyle, Sue Mahony, Sepp Kipfstuhl, James W. B. Rae, Robert C. J. Steele, R. Stephen J. Sparks, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 17, 2119–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2119-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The ~ 74 ka eruption of Toba was one of the largest eruptions of the last 100 ka. We have measured the sulfur isotopic composition for 11 Toba eruption candidates in two Antarctic ice cores. Sulfur isotopes allow us to distinguish between large eruptions that have erupted material into the stratosphere and smaller ones that reach lower altitudes. Using this we have identified the events most likely to be Toba and place the eruption on the transition into a cold period in the Northern Hemisphere.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Akira Oka, Takahito Mitsui, and Fuyuki Saito
Clim. Past, 17, 1919–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial periods underwent climate shifts between warm states and cold states on a millennial timescale. Frequency of these climate shifts varied along time: it was shorter during mid-glacial period compared to early glacial period. Here, from climate simulations of early and mid-glacial periods with a comprehensive climate model, we show that the larger ice sheet in the mid-glacial compared to early glacial periods could contribute to the frequent climate shifts during the mid-glacial period.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Cited articles
Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., Kawamura, K., Raymo, M. E., Okuno, J. I., Takahashi, K., and Blatter, H.: Insolation-driven 100 000 year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume, Nature, 500, 190–193, 2013.
Barth, A. M., Clark, P. U., Bill, N. S., He, F., and Pisias, N. G.: Climate evolution across the Mid-Brunhes Transition, Clim. Past, 14, 2071–2087, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2071-2018, 2018.
Batchelor, C. L. , Margold, M., Krapp, M., Murton, D. K., Dalton, A. S., Gibbard, P. L., Stokes, C. R. , Murton, J. B., and Manica, A.: The configuration of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the Quaternary, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–10, 2019.
Bauska, T. K., Marcott, S. A., and Brook, E. J.: Abrupt changes in the global carbon cycle during the last glacial period, Nat. Geosci., 14, 91–96, 2021.
Bazin, L., Landais, A., Lemieux-Dudon, B., Toyé Mahamadou Kele, H., Veres, D., Parrenin, F., Martinerie, P., Ritz, C., Capron, E., Lipenkov, V., Loutre, M.-F., Raynaud, D., Vinther, B., Svensson, A., Rasmussen, S. O., Severi, M., Blunier, T., Leuenberger, M., Fischer, H., Masson-Delmotte, V., Chappellaz, J., and Wolff, E.: An optimized multi-proxy, multi-site Antarctic ice and gas orbital chronology (AICC2012): 120–800 ka, Clim. Past, 9, 1715–1731, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1715-2013, 2013.
Bereiter, B., Eggleston, S., Schmitt, J., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Stocker, T. F., Fischer, H., Kipfstuhl, S., and Chappellaz, J.: Revision of the EPICA Dome C CO2 record from 800 to 600 kyr before present, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 542–549, 2015.
Berger, A., Li, X. S., and Loutre, M. F.: Modelling northern hemisphere ice volume over the last 3 Ma, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 18, 1–11, 1999.
Berger, A. L.: Long-Term Variations of Caloric Insolation Resulting from the Earth's Orbital Elements, Quaternary Res., 9, 139–167, 1978.
Berger, W. H. and Wefer, G.: On the Dynamics of The Ice Ages: Stage-11 Paradox, Mid-Brunhes Climate Shift, and 100-Ky Cycle, in: Earth's Climate and Orbital Eccentricity: The Marine Isotope Stage 11 Question, edited by: Droxler, A. W., Poore, R. Z., and Burckle, L. H., https://doi.org/10.1029/137GM04, 2003.
Birchfield, G. E., Weertman, J., and Lunde, A. T.: A paleoclimate model of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, Quaternary Res., 15, 126–142, 1981.
Crucifix, M.: Palinsol: insolation for palaeoclimate studies, R package version 0.93, 2016.
Denton, G. H., Anderson, R. F., Toggweiler, J. R., Edwards, R. L., Schaefer, J. M., and Putnam, A. E.: The last glacial termination, Science, 328, 1652–1656, 2010.
Dutton, A., Carlson, A. E., Long, A. J., Milne, G. A., Clark, P. U., DeConto, R., Horton, B. P., Rahmstorf, S., and Raymo, M. E.: Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods, Science, 349, aaa4019, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4019, 2015.
Elderfield, H., Ferretti, P., Greaves, M., Crowhurst, S., McCave, I. N., Hodell, D., and Piotrowski, A. M.: Evolution of ocean temperature and ice volume through the mid-Pleistocene climate transition, Science, 337, 704–709, 2012.
EPICA community members: Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core, Nature, 429, 623–628, 2004.
Everitt, B. S. and Skrondal, A.: The Cambridge dictionary of statistics, Cambridge University Press,
ISBN-13 978-0-521-76699-9, 2010.
Ganopolski, A. and Brovkin, V.: Simulation of climate, ice sheets and CO2 evolution during the last four glacial cycles with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, Clim. Past, 13, 1695–1716, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, 2017.
Ganopolski, A., Calov, R., and Claussen, M.: Simulation of the last glacial cycle with a coupled climate ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, Clim. Past, 6, 229–244, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-229-2010, 2010.
Ganopolski, A., Winkelmann, R., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Critical insolation–CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future glacial inception, Nature, 529, 200–203, 2016.
Grant, K. M., Rohling, E. J., Ramsey, C. B., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Florindo, F., Heslop, D., Marra, F., Roberts, A. P., Tamisiea, M. E., and Williams, F.: Sea-level variability over five glacial cycles, Nat. Commun., 5, 1–9, 2014.
Holden, P. B., Edwards, N. R., Wolff, E. W., Valdes, P. J., and Singarayer, J. S.: The Mid-Brunhes event and West Antarctic ice sheet stability, J. Quaternary Sci., 26, 474–477, 2011.
Hughes, P. D. and Gibbard, P. L.: Global glacier dynamics during 100 ka Pleistocene glacial cycles, Quaternary Res., 90, 222–243, 2018.
Hughes, P. D., Gibbard, P. L., and Ehlers, J.: The “missing glaciations” of the Middle Pleistocene, Quaternary Res., 96, 161–183, 2020.
Huybers, P.: Combined obliquity and precession pacing of late Pleistocene deglaciations, Nature, 480, 229–232, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10626, 2011.
Imbrie, J., Berger, A., Boyle, E. A., Clemens, S. C., Duffy, A., Howard, W. R., Kukla, G., Kutzbach, J., Martinson, D. G., McIntyre, A., Mix, A. C., Molfino, B., Morley, J. J., Peterson, L. C., Pisias, N. G., Prell, W. L., Raymo, M. E., Shackleton, N. J., and Toggweiler, J. R.: On the structure and origin of major glaciation cycles 2. The 100 000 year cycle, Paleoceanography, 8, 699–735, 1993.
Knorr, G., Barker, S., Zhang, X., Lohmann, G., Gong, X., Gierz, P., Stepanek, C., and Stap, L. B.: A salty deep ocean as a prerequisite for glacial termination, Nat. Geosci., 14, 930–936, 2021.
Knutti, R., Flückiger, J., Stocker, T. F., and Timmermann, A.: Strong hemispheric coupling of glacial climate through freshwater discharge and ocean circulation, Nature, 430, 851–856, 2004.
Lang, N. and Wolff, E. W.: Interglacial and glacial variability from the last 800 ka in marine, ice and terrestrial archives, Clim. Past, 7, 361–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-361-2011, 2011.
Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A. C. M., and Levrard, B.: A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth, Astron. Astrophys., 428, 261–285, 2004.
Lisiecki, L. E. and Raymo, M. E.: A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ18O records, Paleoceanography, 20, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004PA001071, 2005.
Lourens, L. J. and Hilgen, F. J.: Long-periodic variations in the Earth's obliquity and their relation to third-order eustatic cycles and late Neogene glaciations, Quatern. Int., 40, 43–52, 1997.
MacAyeal, D. R.: A catastrophe model of the paleoglimate, J. Glaciol., 24, 245–257, 1979.
Marshall, S. J. and Clark, P. U.: Basal temperature evolution of North American ice sheets and implications for the 100-kyr cycle, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 2214, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015192, 2002.
Milankovitch, M.: Kanon der Erdbestrahlung und seine Anwendung auf des Eiszeitenproblem. Special Publication 132, Section of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, vol. 33, p. 633, Royal Serbian Academy of Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia (“Canon of Insolation and the Ice Age Problem”) (trans. Israel Program for the US Department of Commerce and the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., USA, 1969, and by Zavod za udzbenike i nastavna sredstva in cooperation with Muzej nauke i tehnike Srpske akademije nauka i umetnosti, Belgrade, Serbia, 1998), 1941.
Mitsui, T. and Boers, N.: Machine learning approach reveals strong link between obliquity amplitude increase and the Mid-Brunhes transition, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 277, 107344, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107344, 2022.
Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Shin J., Schmitt, J., Bereiter, B., Joos, F., Schilt, A., Schmidely, L., Silva, L., Teste, G., Grilli, R., Chappellaz, J., Hodell, D., Fischer, H., and Stocker, T. F.: Abrupt CO2 release to the atmosphere under glacial and early interglacial climate conditions, Science, 369, 1000–1005, 2020.
Paillard, D.: The timing of Pleistocene glaciations from a simple multiple-state climate model, Nature, 391, 378–381, 1998.
Parrenin, F. and Paillard, D.: Amplitude and phase of glacial cycles from a conceptual model, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 214, 243–250, 2003.
Parrenin, F. and Paillard, D.: Terminations VI and VIII (∼530 and ∼720 kyr BP) tell us the importance of obliquity and precession in the triggering of deglaciations, Clim. Past, 8, 2031–2037, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-2031-2012, 2012.
Past Interglacials Working Group of PAGES: Interglacials of the last 800 000 years, Rev. Geophys., 54, 162–219, 2016.
Obase, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Saito, F.: Abrupt climate changes in the last two deglaciations simulated with different Northern ice sheet discharge and insolation, Sci. Rep., 11, 1–11, 2021.
Raftery, A. E.: Bayesian model selection in social research, Sociol. Methodol., 25, 111–163, 1995.
Raymo, M. E.: The timing of major climate terminations, Paleoceanography, 12, 577–585, 1997.
Shakun, J. D., Lea, D. W., Lisiecki, L. E., and Raymo, M. E.: An 800 kyr record of global surface ocean δ18O and implications for ice volume-temperature coupling, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 426, 58–68, 2015.
Shin, J., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Grilli, R., Chowdhry Beeman, J., Parrenin, F., Teste, G., Landais, A., Schmidely, L., Silva, L., Schmitt, J., Bereiter, B., Stocker, T. F., Fischer, H., and Chappellaz, J.: Millennial-scale atmospheric CO2 variations during the Marine Isotope Stage 6 period (190–135 ka), Clim. Past, 16, 2203–2219, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2203-2020, 2020.
Snyder, C. W.: Evolution of global temperature over the past two million years, Nature, 538, 226–228, 2016.
Spratt, R. M. and Lisiecki, L. E.: A Late Pleistocene sea level stack, Clim. Past, 12, 1079–1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1079-2016, 2016.
Stephens, B. B. and Keeling, R. F.: The influence of Antarctic sea ice on glacial–interglacial CO2 variations, Nature, 404, 171–174, 2000.
Tzedakis, P. C., Raynaud, D., McManus, J. F., Berger, A., Brovkin, V., and Kiefer, T.: Interglacial diversity, Nat. Geosci., 2, 751–755, 2009.
Tzedakis, P. C., Crucifix, M., Mitsui, T., and Wolff, E. W.: A simple rule to determine which insolation cycles lead to interglacials, Nature, 542, 427–432, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature21364, 2017.
Tzedakis, P. C., Hodell, D. A., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Mitsui, T., and Wolff, E. W.: Marine Isotope Stage 11c: An unusual interglacial, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 284, 107493, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107493, 2022.
Verbitsky, M. Y., Crucifix, M., and Volobuev, D. M.: A theory of Pleistocene glacial rhythmicity, Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1025–1043, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1025-2018, 2018.
Watson, A. J. and Naveira Garabato, A. C.: The role of Southern Ocean mixing and upwelling in glacial-interglacial atmospheric CO2 change, Tellus B, 58, 73–87, 2006.
Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Calov, R., and Brovkin, V.: Mid-Pleistocene transition in glacial cycles explained by declining CO2 and regolith removal, Sci. Adv., 5, eaav7337, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav7337, 2019.
Wilson, D. J., van de Flierdt, T., McKay, R. M., and Naish, T. R.: Pleistocene Antarctic climate variability: ice sheet, ocean and climate interactions, in: Antarctic Climate Evolution, 2nd edn., edited by: Florindo, F., Siegert, M., de Santis, L., and Naish, T., Elsevier, 523–621, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-819109-5.00001-3, 2021.
Wolff, E. W., Fischer, H., Fundel, F., Ruth, U., Twarloh, B., Littot, G., Mulvaney, R., Röthlisberger, R., de Angelis, M., Boutron, C., Hansson, M., Jonsell, U., Hutterli, M., Bigler, M., Lambert, F., Kaufmann, P., Stauffer, B., Steffensen, J. P., Siggaard-Andersen, M. L., Udisti, R., Becagli, S., Castellano, E., Severi, M., Wagenbach, D., Barbante, C., Gabrielli, P., and Gaspari, V.: Southern Ocean sea-ice extent, productivity and iron flux over the past eight glacial cycles, Nature, 440, 491–496, 2006.
Yin, Q.: Insolation-induced mid-Brunhes transition in Southern Ocean ventilation and deep-ocean temperature, Nature, 494, 222–225, 2013.
Yin, Q. Z. and Berger, A.: Individual contribution of insolation and CO2 to the interglacial climates of the past 800 000 years, Clim. Dynam., 38, 709–724, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1013-5, 2012.
Short summary
We provide simple quantitative models for the interglacial and glacial intensities over the last 800 000 years. Our results suggest that the memory of previous climate states and the time course of the insolation in both hemispheres are crucial for understanding interglacial and glacial intensities. In our model, the shift in interglacial intensities at the Mid-Brunhes Event (~430 ka) is ultimately attributed to the amplitude modulation of obliquity.
We provide simple quantitative models for the interglacial and glacial intensities over the last...
