Articles | Volume 18, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022
Research article
 | 
20 Jun 2022
Research article |  | 20 Jun 2022

Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records

Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers, Martin Wibe Rypdal, and Niklas Boers

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Cited articles

Adolphi, F., Bronk Ramsey, C., Erhardt, T., Edwards, R. L., Cheng, H., Turney, C. S. M., Cooper, A., Svensson, A., Rasmussen, S. O., Fischer, H., and Muscheler, R.: Connecting the Greenland ice-core and U∕Th timescales via cosmogenic radionuclides: testing the synchroneity of Dansgaard–Oeschger events, Clim. Past, 14, 1755–1781, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1755-2018, 2018. a
Andersen, K. K., Svensson, A., Johnsen, S. J., Rasmussen, S. O., Bigler, M., Röthlisberger, R., Ruth, U., Siggaard-Andersen, M. L., Peder Steffensen, J., Dahl-Jensen, D., Vinther, B. M., and Clausen, H. B.: The Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005, 15–42 ka. Part 1: constructing the time scale, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 25, 3246–3257, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.08.002, 2006. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Blaauw, M. and Christeny, J. A.: Flexible paleoclimate age-depth models using an autoregressive gamma process, Bayesian Anal., 6, 457–474, https://doi.org/10.1214/11-BA618, 2011. a
Boers, N., Goswami, B., and Ghil, M.: A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives, Clim. Past, 13, 1169–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017, 2017. a, b
Buizert, C., Cuffey, K. M., Severinghaus, J. P., Baggenstos, D., Fudge, T. J., Steig, E. J., Markle, B. R., Winstrup, M., Rhodes, R. H., Brook, E. J., Sowers, T. A., Clow, G. D., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Sigl, M., McConnell, J. R., and Taylor, K. C.: The WAIS Divide deep ice core WD2014 chronology – Part 1: Methane synchronization (68–31 ka BP) and the gas age–ice age difference, Clim. Past, 11, 153–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-153-2015, 2015. a, b, c, d
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Short summary
In layer counted proxy records each measurement is accompanied by a timestamp typically measured by counting periodic layers. Knowledge of the uncertainty of this timestamp is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses. By assuming a Bayesian regression model to the layer increments we express the dating uncertainty by the posterior distribution, from which chronologies can be sampled efficiently. We apply our framework to dating abrupt warming transitions during the last glacial.