Articles | Volume 15, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Jan 2019
Research article |
| 10 Jan 2019
| 10 Jan 2019
Comparing the spatial patterns of climate change in the 9th and 5th millennia BP from TRACE-21 model simulations
Liang Ning
Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment, Ministry of
Education, State Key Laboratory of Geographical Environment Evolution,
Jiangsu Provincial Cultivation Base, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing
Normal University, Nanjing, China
Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical
Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, China
Climate System Research Center, Department of Geosciences, University
of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, USA
Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment, Ministry of
Education, State Key Laboratory of Geographical Environment Evolution,
Jiangsu Provincial Cultivation Base, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing
Normal University, Nanjing, China
Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical
Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, China
Raymond S. Bradley
Climate System Research Center, Department of Geosciences, University
of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, USA
Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment, Ministry of
Education, State Key Laboratory of Geographical Environment Evolution,
Jiangsu Provincial Cultivation Base, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing
Normal University, Nanjing, China
Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical
Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, China
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Related subject area
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Frank Arthur, Didier M. Roche, Ralph Fyfe, Aurélien Quiquet, and Hans Renssen
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Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
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Huan Li, Hans Renssen, and Didier M. Roche
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In past warm periods, the Sahara region was covered by vegetation. In this paper we study transitions from this
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Nicky M. Wright, Claire E. Krause, Steven J. Phipps, Ghyslaine Boschat, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 18, 1509–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, 2022
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Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
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Palaeoenvironmental records only provide a fragmentary picture of the lake and wetland extent in North Africa during the mid-Holocene. Therefore, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes caused by an estimated small and maximum lake extent and a maximum wetland extent. Results show a particularly strong monsoon precipitation response to lakes and wetlands over the Western Sahara and an increased monsoon precipitation when replacing lakes with vegetated wetlands.
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Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
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In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Yiling Huo, William Richard Peltier, and Deepak Chandan
Clim. Past, 17, 1645–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1645-2021, 2021
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Regional climate simulations were constructed to more accurately capture regional features of the South and Southeast Asian monsoon during the mid-Holocene. Comparison with proxies shows that our high-resolution simulations outperform those with the coarser global model in reproducing the monsoon rainfall anomalies. Incorporating the Green Sahara climate conditions over northern Africa into our simulations further strengthens the monsoon precipitation and leads to better agreement with proxies.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
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Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Pascale Braconnot, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Anne Cozic, Masa Kageyama, Adriana Sima, Olivier Marti, and Jean-Yves Peterschmitt
Clim. Past, 17, 1091–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, 2021
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We investigate how mid-Holocene dust reduction affects the Earth’s energetics from a suite of climate simulations. Our analyses confirm the peculiar role of the dust radiative effect over bright surfaces such as African deserts. We highlight a strong dependence on the dust pattern. The relative dust forcing between West Africa and the Middle East impacts the relative response of Indian and African monsoons and between the western tropical Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional circulation.
Gabriele Messori and Davide Faranda
Clim. Past, 17, 545–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, 2021
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The palaeoclimate community must both analyse large amounts of model data and compare very different climates. Here, we present a seemingly very abstract analysis approach that may be fruitfully applied to palaeoclimate numerical simulations. This approach characterises the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics and is thus suited to face the above challenges.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
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This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Charles J. R. Williams, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Emilie Capron, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Joy S. Singarayer, Louise C. Sime, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
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Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from two simulations using the latest version of the UK's climate model, the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) and Last Interglacial (127 000 years ago). The simulations reproduce temperatures consistent with the pattern of incoming radiation. Model–data comparisons indicate that some regions (and some seasons) produce better matches to the data than others.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
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We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Anina Gilgen, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kühn, and Ulrike Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1885–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, 2019
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Using the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAM-SALSA, the effect of humans on European climate in the Roman Empire was quantified. Both land use and novel estimates of anthropogenic aerosol emissions were considered. We conducted simulations with fixed sea-surface temperatures to gain a first impression about the anthropogenic impact. While land use effects induced a regional warming for one of the reconstructions, aerosol emissions led to a cooling associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.
Pascale Braconnot, Dan Zhu, Olivier Marti, and Jérôme Servonnat
Clim. Past, 15, 997–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, 2019
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This study discusses a simulation of the last 6000 years realized with a climate model in which the vegetation and carbon cycle are fully interactive. The long-term southward shift in Northern Hemisphere tree line and Afro-Asian monsoon rain are reproduced. The results show substantial change in tree composition with time over Eurasia and the role of trace gases in the recent past. They highlight the limitations due to model setup and multiple preindustrial vegetation states.
Mi Yan and Jian Liu
Clim. Past, 15, 265–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019, 2019
Andrea Klus, Matthias Prange, Vidya Varma, Louis Bruno Tremblay, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 14, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, 2018
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Numerous proxy records from the northern North Atlantic suggest substantial climate variability including the occurrence of multi-decadal-to-centennial cold events during the Holocene. We analyzed two abrupt cold events in a Holocene simulation using a comprehensive climate model. It is shown that the events were ultimately triggered by prolonged phases of positive North Atlantic Oscillation causing changes in ocean circulation followed by severe cooling, freshening, and expansion of sea ice.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, and Christian Reick
Clim. Past, 14, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, 2018
Short summary
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We find a rapid increase in simulated dust deposition between 6 and
4 ka BP that is fairly consistent with an abrupt change in dust deposition that was observed in marine sediment records at around 5 ka BP. This rapid change is caused by a rapid increase in simulated dust emissions in the western Sahara due to a fast decline in vegetation cover and a locally strong reduction of lake area. Our study identifies spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the transition of the North African landscape.
Duncan Ackerley, Jessica Reeves, Cameron Barr, Helen Bostock, Kathryn Fitzsimmons, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Chris Gouramanis, Helen McGregor, Scott Mooney, Steven J. Phipps, John Tibby, and Jonathan Tyler
Clim. Past, 13, 1661–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1661-2017, 2017
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A selection of climate models have been used to simulate both pre-industrial (1750 CE) and mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) conditions. This study presents an assessment of the temperature, rainfall and flow over Australasia from those climate models. The model data are compared with available proxy data reconstructions (e.g. tree rings) for 6000 years ago to identify whether the models are reliable. Places where there is both agreement and conflict are highlighted and investigated further.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Jian Ni, Xianyong Cao, Yongbo Wang, Nils Fischer, Madlene Pfeiffer, Liya Jin, Vyacheslav Khon, Sebastian Wagner, Kerstin Haberkorn, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 13, 107–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, 2017
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The vegetation distribution in eastern Asia is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient climate simulations.
Xinyu Wen, Zhengyu Liu, Zhongxiao Chen, Esther Brady, David Noone, Qingzhao Zhu, and Jian Guan
Clim. Past, 12, 2077–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2077-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we challenge the usefulness of temperature effect and amount effect, the basic assumptions in past climate reconstruction using a stable water isotope proxy, in East Asia on multiple timescales. By modeling several time slices in the past 22 000 years using an isotope-enabled general circulation model, we suggest great caution when interpreting δ18O records in this area as indicators of surface temperature and/or local monsoonal precipitation, especially on a millennial timescale.
Emmanuele Russo and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 12, 1645–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, 2016
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In this study we use a RCM for three different goals.
Proposing a model configuration suitable for paleoclimate studies; evaluating the added value of a regional climate model for paleoclimate studies; investigating temperature evolution of the European continent during mid-to-late Holocene.
Results suggest that the RCM seems to produce results in better agreement with reconstructions than its driving GCM. Simulated temperature evolution seems to be too sensitive to changes in insolation.
Yurui Zhang, Hans Renssen, and Heikki Seppä
Clim. Past, 12, 1119–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1119-2016, 2016
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We explore how forcings contributed to climate change during the early Holocene that marked the final transition to the warm and stable stage. Our results indicate that 1) temperature at the Holocene onset was lower than in the preindustrial over the northern extratropics with the exception in Alaska, and the magnitude of this cooling varies regionally as a response to varying climate forcings and diverse mechanisms, and 2) the rate of the early Holocene warming was also spatially heterogeneous.
M. Clare Smith, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, Jed O. Kaplan, and Nicholas P. Branch
Clim. Past, 12, 923–941, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, 2016
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We used climate modelling to estimate the biogeophysical impacts of agriculture on the climate over the last 8000 years of the Holocene. Our results show statistically significant surface temperature changes (mainly cooling) from as early as 7000 BP in the JJA season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3000 BP. The changes were greatest in the areas of land use change but were also seen in other areas. Precipitation was also affected, particularly in Europe, India, and the ITCZ region.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, Christian Reick, and Tanja Stanelle
Clim. Past, 12, 1009–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, 2016
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We demonstrate for the first time the direct link between dust accumulation in marine sediment cores and Saharan land surface by simulating the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial dust cycle as a function of Saharan land surface cover and atmosphere-ocean conditions using the coupled atmosphere-aerosol model ECHAM6-HAM2.1. Mid-Holocene surface characteristics, including vegetation cover and lake surface area, are derived from proxy data and simulations.
S. C. Lewis and A. N. LeGrande
Clim. Past, 11, 1347–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1347-2015, 2015
P. J. Bartlein, M. E. Edwards, S. W. Hostetler, S. L. Shafer, P. M. Anderson, L. B. Brubaker, and A. V. Lozhkin
Clim. Past, 11, 1197–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1197-2015, 2015
Short summary
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The ongoing warming of the Arctic is producing changes in vegetation and hydrology that, coupled with rising sea level, could mediate global changes. We explored this possibility using regional climate model simulations of a past interval of warming in Beringia and found that the regional-scale changes do strongly mediate the responses to global changes, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in climate change.
F. J. Davies, H. Renssen, M. Blaschek, and F. Muschitiello
Clim. Past, 11, 571–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-571-2015, 2015
J. R. Alder and S. W. Hostetler
Clim. Past, 11, 449–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-449-2015, 2015
G.-S. Chen, Z. Liu, and J. E. Kutzbach
Clim. Past, 10, 1269–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1269-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
A. Perez-Sanz, G. Li, P. González-Sampériz, and S. P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 10, 551–568, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, 2014
Z. Tian and D. Jiang
Clim. Past, 9, 2153–2171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013, 2013
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1667–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1667-2013, 2013
R. O'ishi and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 9, 1571–1587, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, 2013
R. Ohgaito, T. Sueyoshi, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Hajima, S. Watanabe, H.-J. Kim, A. Yamamoto, and M. Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 9, 1519–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
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